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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Мая 15, 2026, 07:37:41 pm »
Just awful. Thank God you were not hit.
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Марта 26, 2026, 03:03:03 pm »
Unfortunately unsurprising: This prominent article on the front page of the Washington Post today:
“Pentagon considers diverting Ukraine military aid to the Middle East”
Note that this includes diverting aid intended for Ukraine provided by Europe.
“ … the Pentagon notified Congress on Monday that it intended to divert about $750 million in funding provided by NATO countries through the PURL program to restock the U.S. military’s own inventories, rather than to send additional assistance to Ukraine, according to two U.S. officials.”
Gift article
https://wapo.st/4daQt5A
“Pentagon considers diverting Ukraine military aid to the Middle East”
Note that this includes diverting aid intended for Ukraine provided by Europe.
“ … the Pentagon notified Congress on Monday that it intended to divert about $750 million in funding provided by NATO countries through the PURL program to restock the U.S. military’s own inventories, rather than to send additional assistance to Ukraine, according to two U.S. officials.”
Gift article
https://wapo.st/4daQt5A
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Марта 23, 2026, 04:02:33 pm »
True, the UK and France are involved, but to only small degrees so far, and on defense. They were not involved at the start of this conflict, unlike previous ones where they were in offensive roles from the beginning as part of a coalition (except the Iraq war in which France did not participate).
Notably France has moved about half its navy to the eastern Mediterranean, including their single aircraft carrier (nuclear), to defend allies and interests in the region. So potentially they could become more involved.
Bismarck was concerned about “some damned foolish thing in the Balkans” leading to general war in his time, which it eventually did as WWI. In this era we could replace “Balkans” with “Middle East”. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen this time.
Notably France has moved about half its navy to the eastern Mediterranean, including their single aircraft carrier (nuclear), to defend allies and interests in the region. So potentially they could become more involved.
Bismarck was concerned about “some damned foolish thing in the Balkans” leading to general war in his time, which it eventually did as WWI. In this era we could replace “Balkans” with “Middle East”. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen this time.
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Марта 22, 2026, 04:14:33 pm »
All true.
EU leaders’ foot dragging is legendary, but even in the best of circumstances Europe has only modest military resources to assist in a large military action like the war on Iran. They are unlikely to commit those in a situation where the US doesn’t build a coalition or even consult with them prior to commencing hostilities involving vital energy supplies, unless the situation deteriorates drastically.
They must face their voters, and several generations of those have passed knowing only a world where the tough geopolitical problems and risks were handled almost entirely by Uncle Sam. So “wait and see” becomes the safe decision for the moment.
It seems that the US plan to attack Iran was not well thought out - or was constrained by executive meddling - and the campaign is now at least partially in a reactionary mode. Incredibly, Trump stated that the US doesn’t need or want help “from Zelensky” in drone warefare, despite Ukraine currently being the most experienced country in the world.
This doesn’t inspire confidence in allies (or citizens here) whether to engage or support the war. Iran is not Venezuela (or Cuba).
EU leaders’ foot dragging is legendary, but even in the best of circumstances Europe has only modest military resources to assist in a large military action like the war on Iran. They are unlikely to commit those in a situation where the US doesn’t build a coalition or even consult with them prior to commencing hostilities involving vital energy supplies, unless the situation deteriorates drastically.
They must face their voters, and several generations of those have passed knowing only a world where the tough geopolitical problems and risks were handled almost entirely by Uncle Sam. So “wait and see” becomes the safe decision for the moment.
It seems that the US plan to attack Iran was not well thought out - or was constrained by executive meddling - and the campaign is now at least partially in a reactionary mode. Incredibly, Trump stated that the US doesn’t need or want help “from Zelensky” in drone warefare, despite Ukraine currently being the most experienced country in the world.
This doesn’t inspire confidence in allies (or citizens here) whether to engage or support the war. Iran is not Venezuela (or Cuba).
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Марта 17, 2026, 05:34:26 am »
Mobilization is the new Gulag.
There are many ways of obscuring sensitive land locations, ownership and uses on a case by case basis, and likewise for processing but not disclosing particular patents deemed secret for security reasons, etc. A blanket method as has been proposed certainly seems asinine for the reasons you mention. Are the people running that ministry really that daft? Or are they simply lazy? Or both?
Another reason not to do it occurs to me - if everything is secret, then there is no way to plant false information on those items to confuse and distract the enemy, or to expose information leaks and leakers.
There are many ways of obscuring sensitive land locations, ownership and uses on a case by case basis, and likewise for processing but not disclosing particular patents deemed secret for security reasons, etc. A blanket method as has been proposed certainly seems asinine for the reasons you mention. Are the people running that ministry really that daft? Or are they simply lazy? Or both?
Another reason not to do it occurs to me - if everything is secret, then there is no way to plant false information on those items to confuse and distract the enemy, or to expose information leaks and leakers.
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Марта 02, 2026, 09:21:00 pm »
Yes Ukraine is still an outlier even compared to these.
The Shah was overthrown by a fairly broadly supported uprising. Iranians didn’t expect to then end up in a brutal, isolated theocracy, in many ways much worse than the Shah’s regime. In general one could leave Iran, the mullahs were happy to have potential troublemakers remove themselves. However I’m not sure about men of military age during the period of the Iran-Iraq war.
The Shah was overthrown by a fairly broadly supported uprising. Iranians didn’t expect to then end up in a brutal, isolated theocracy, in many ways much worse than the Shah’s regime. In general one could leave Iran, the mullahs were happy to have potential troublemakers remove themselves. However I’m not sure about men of military age during the period of the Iran-Iraq war.
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Марта 02, 2026, 08:46:05 pm »
Yes, air power alone has never changed a government or won a war without powerful additional factors. Almost always this is military ground forces, typically of the attacking country or allies, or a rebel army. None of these are present yet in Iran.
I and many, many others are happy to see the cruel murderous thugs who enslaved Iran and brought much chaos and death to the Middle East finally delivered into eternal justice. However that shouldn’t be confused with successfully changing the regime they led into something more benign.
As you point out it will also affect the Ukrainian situation most unfortunately. The only positive I can think of is destroying the Iranian drone factories and missile factories assuming the US does so. The effect would be modest though since Russia is building their own in quantities.
I and many, many others are happy to see the cruel murderous thugs who enslaved Iran and brought much chaos and death to the Middle East finally delivered into eternal justice. However that shouldn’t be confused with successfully changing the regime they led into something more benign.
As you point out it will also affect the Ukrainian situation most unfortunately. The only positive I can think of is destroying the Iranian drone factories and missile factories assuming the US does so. The effect would be modest though since Russia is building their own in quantities.
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Февраля 17, 2026, 05:52:44 am »
I had wondered how you would feel about Geraskevych‘s action Wlad, and I’m not surprised at your opinion. I had a similar reaction. It was foolish to squander the opportunity to show the world that Ukraine proudly takes its place among the nations at the Olympics despite Russia trying to extinguish it.
Heartfelt but futile demonstrations of remembrance almost dishonor the dead. People don’t take enormous risks for their country only in the hope that somebody publically memorializes them if they perish. They do it in hopes of protecting the country and their loved ones and to improve the situation. The best way to honor them is to work hard for the same goals in whatever way one can, in this case by proudly competing under the Ukrainian flag.
I hope that you feel better and that warmer weather returns soon.
Heartfelt but futile demonstrations of remembrance almost dishonor the dead. People don’t take enormous risks for their country only in the hope that somebody publically memorializes them if they perish. They do it in hopes of protecting the country and their loved ones and to improve the situation. The best way to honor them is to work hard for the same goals in whatever way one can, in this case by proudly competing under the Ukrainian flag.
I hope that you feel better and that warmer weather returns soon.
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Января 28, 2026, 04:57:27 pm »
Dalio’s analysis is enlightening and useful as a guidepost, among others, for investing decisions and understanding political risks. However in my opinion it’s not comprehensive enough to predict political outcomes. The conditions he describes might be necessary, but are generally not sufficient to generate revolution. Viscerally felt and long held social, cultural and historical grievances are usually involved and can be just as important as economic ones, if not more so.
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Января 25, 2026, 04:32:21 pm »
I’m pleased that - finally - Russian “shadow” oil tankers are being interdicted frequently, and by multiple nations.
So far, France, Estonia, Finland and the US have recently seized such vessels, while Germany merely denied entry into its waters. Germany did seize such a tanker several years ago and has been trying to sell the oil but this is tied up in their courts. The UK has been assisting with naval vessels supporting these actions and intelligence. In the last month the UK has been preparing to directly interdict shadow tankers.
The US seizures have been justified by sanctions imposed on Venezuelan oil by the US, but these tankers are also used to transport sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil. Thus these seizures reduce the number of shadow vessels available for Russian oil.
Russia attempted to thwart this by reflagging some ships in mid-voyage as Russian and escorting them with naval vessels (reportedly including an attack submarine) but that didn’t stop the boardings and seizures while the Russian navy stood by, revealing the escorts to be bluffs.
Recently the UK government has come under criticism for not taking action on 40 or so shadow tankers that passed through the English Channel. Hopefully this will cause the UK to start interdicting them.
So far, France, Estonia, Finland and the US have recently seized such vessels, while Germany merely denied entry into its waters. Germany did seize such a tanker several years ago and has been trying to sell the oil but this is tied up in their courts. The UK has been assisting with naval vessels supporting these actions and intelligence. In the last month the UK has been preparing to directly interdict shadow tankers.
The US seizures have been justified by sanctions imposed on Venezuelan oil by the US, but these tankers are also used to transport sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil. Thus these seizures reduce the number of shadow vessels available for Russian oil.
Russia attempted to thwart this by reflagging some ships in mid-voyage as Russian and escorting them with naval vessels (reportedly including an attack submarine) but that didn’t stop the boardings and seizures while the Russian navy stood by, revealing the escorts to be bluffs.
Recently the UK government has come under criticism for not taking action on 40 or so shadow tankers that passed through the English Channel. Hopefully this will cause the UK to start interdicting them.
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Января 23, 2026, 04:22:48 pm »
“Never sit down to play chess with a pigeon - first he will scatter all the pieces, then shit on the board and fly away...”
Best description yet!
Best description yet!
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Января 20, 2026, 05:27:10 pm »
I hope your heat and water is on now, or soon will be.
I’m encouraged by the signs that Zelensky is maneuvering for a post-presidential life. However, I would expect that his political career would be finished once he is no longer president. Nobody wants reheated old fish, especially if it tasted bad when it was fresh.
Ah, yes, Trump 2.0 chaos at the World Economic Forum. Rather than delve into the myriad international and domestic issues here I will sum it up by noting that all great nations have times when they stumble badly and this is shaping up to be a historic one for the United States. However never doubt that She will recover.
I’m encouraged by the signs that Zelensky is maneuvering for a post-presidential life. However, I would expect that his political career would be finished once he is no longer president. Nobody wants reheated old fish, especially if it tasted bad when it was fresh.
Ah, yes, Trump 2.0 chaos at the World Economic Forum. Rather than delve into the myriad international and domestic issues here I will sum it up by noting that all great nations have times when they stumble badly and this is shaping up to be a historic one for the United States. However never doubt that She will recover.
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Января 19, 2026, 07:19:42 pm »
I’m very concerned about Sergiy, constant cold is bad enough but CO poisoning is insidious and very dangerous. Even at sub-lethal levels, long term exposure can cause serious heart and brain damage.
I hope his normal heat will be restored soon.
There are catalytic gas heaters that emit very little CO, is there any practical way to acquire one there?
I hope his normal heat will be restored soon.
There are catalytic gas heaters that emit very little CO, is there any practical way to acquire one there?
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Января 16, 2026, 07:45:12 pm »
Ah, thanks for the explanation. Yes, too many “lifers” (and wannabes) in office.
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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English
« : Января 15, 2026, 09:22:15 pm »
I don’t quite understand your meaning.