Сообщения

1

Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Июля 23, 2026, 08:14:28 am »

A lawyer yes, but boring? NO.

The situation on mobilization is rather Byzantine*, and now another bizarre turn with Zelensky firing Syrskyi and Fedorov apparently being invited to return in some capacity. I wonder if there really is an explanation for what Zelenky does, no matter how unsavory, or if he just throws darts at a board to make decisions.

We have a guy here who seems to do that. It seldom produces desirable results.

( *- I learned today that there was Byzantine influence in the Kyivan Rus a thousand years ago.)

Im sorry to hear that the situation in Poland is causing Maryna and Kate to consider alternatives, having invested so much effort there. Hopefully the passions will abate soon and they can remain.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Июля 21, 2026, 03:33:04 am »

I see that the awful mobilization process in Ukraine is finally getting some attention in western news https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7k5ngde3vo�

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Июля 20, 2026, 06:26:36 pm »

Thank God that neither my friends nor my family were affected by this attack. It seems like this is a new record for the number of ballistic missiles used and their hits, respectively. Although I still don't understand what the point is in spending them on destroying factories and warehouses, because even this amount would be enough to destroy the entire energy system and half of the important bridges in Ukraine.

Perhaps the russians need a long war, not a quick victory, but this war has already turned russia into China's junior partner, completely dependent on it. https://www.wsj.com/world/x-putin-junior-partner-df611b88

Yes thank God you’re all okay.

I agree it seems illogical if the goal is to quickly force an end to the war with Ukraine ceding the eastern areas Putin wants. But I suspect that he  sees continued war as his best option to remain in power, and possibly retain his head as well. Similar in some ways to Netanyahu in Israel, who benefits by endless conflict because it delays his criminal prosecution and likely loss of his Knesset majority.

Edit- as of July 17 2026, Netanyahu’s coalition could no longer agree and the Knesset voted to dissolve with elections in October.

4

Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Июля 20, 2026, 06:07:04 pm »

Truly important issues can go unnoticed by the public, while complete nonsense, when skillfully promoted, can lead to catastrophic consequences—especially when it comes to politics. It has always amazed me why people are so irresponsible when choosing among candidates they know absolutely nothing about, or why they form opinions based solely on anonymous social media posts without any verification. So it’s no surprise that they get what they get.

This seems to be true everywhere.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Июля 17, 2026, 07:50:59 pm »

It’s such irrational retrograde motion that I can scarcely fathom it being done. The Verkhovna Rada goes MIA (missing in action) for a month after nuking the government, and Comedian Zelensky demonstrates once again that he can’t correctly perform even the most obvious managerial tasks, in this case to support and maintain the most talented and productive military officers at their posts.

It isn’t brain surgery, and even brain surgeons take an oath to firstly do no harm.

6

Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Июля 16, 2026, 04:18:35 am »

I wonder, was “Dear Leader” always a corrupt immoral authoritarian at heart, or did he become so by degrees in the company of so many others, or did he become a sort of hired actor figurehead, or some combination?

Not that knowing the answer would be helpful in any meaningful way, but perhaps instructive.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Июля 15, 2026, 12:08:55 am »

The fish rots from the head. Or as we often say here - shit rolls downhill.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Июля 05, 2026, 01:34:42 am »

Horrible. I’m very relieved that you (and friends) weren’t hurt.

Very nice that your family was able to get together last week. Glad that your children are doing well. Children change a lot as they become fully functioning adults and for some time afterwards too. Discussing issues of the times with mine was also interesting, and sometimes quite surprising.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Мая 15, 2026, 07:37:41 pm »

Just awful. Thank God you were not hit.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Марта 26, 2026, 03:03:03 pm »

Unfortunately unsurprising: This prominent article on the front page of the Washington Post today:

“Pentagon considers diverting Ukraine military aid to the Middle East”

Note that this includes diverting aid intended for Ukraine provided by Europe.

“ … the Pentagon notified Congress on Monday that it intended to divert about $750 million in funding provided by NATO countries through the PURL program to restock the U.S. military’s own inventories, rather than to send additional assistance to Ukraine, according to two U.S. officials.​”

Gift article

https://wapo.st/4daQt5A

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Марта 23, 2026, 04:02:33 pm »

True, the UK and France are involved, but to only small degrees so far, and on defense. They were not involved at the start of this conflict, unlike previous ones where they were in offensive roles from the beginning as part of a coalition (except the Iraq war in which France did not participate).

Notably France has moved about half its navy to the eastern Mediterranean, including their single aircraft carrier (nuclear), to defend allies and interests in the region. So potentially they could become more involved.

Bismarck was concerned about “some damned foolish thing in the Balkans” leading to general war in his time, which it eventually did as WWI. In this era we could replace “Balkans” with “Middle East”. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen this time.

12

Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Марта 22, 2026, 04:14:33 pm »

All true.

EU leaders’ foot dragging is legendary, but even in the best of circumstances Europe has only modest military resources to assist in a large military action like the war on Iran. They are unlikely to commit those in a situation where the US doesn’t build a coalition or even consult with them prior to commencing hostilities involving vital energy supplies, unless the situation deteriorates drastically.

They must face their voters, and several generations of those have passed knowing only a world where the tough geopolitical problems and risks were handled almost entirely by Uncle Sam. So “wait and see” becomes the safe decision for the moment.

It seems that the US plan to attack Iran was not well thought out - or was constrained by executive meddling - and the campaign is now at least partially in a reactionary mode.  Incredibly, Trump stated that the US doesn’t need or want help “from Zelensky” in drone warefare, despite Ukraine currently being the most experienced country in the world.

This doesn’t inspire confidence in allies (or citizens here) whether to engage or support the war. Iran is not Venezuela (or Cuba).

13

Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Марта 17, 2026, 05:34:26 am »

Mobilization is the new Gulag.

There are many ways of obscuring sensitive land locations, ownership and uses on a case by case basis, and likewise for processing but not disclosing particular patents deemed secret for security reasons, etc. A blanket method as has been proposed certainly seems asinine for the reasons you mention. Are the people running that ministry really that daft? Or are they simply lazy? Or both?

Another reason not to do it occurs to me - if everything is secret, then there is no way to plant false information on those items to confuse and distract the enemy, or to expose information leaks and leakers.

14

Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Марта 02, 2026, 09:21:00 pm »

Yes Ukraine is still an outlier even compared to these.

The Shah was overthrown by a fairly broadly supported uprising. Iranians didn’t expect to then end up in a brutal, isolated theocracy, in many ways much worse than the Shah’s regime. In general one could leave Iran, the mullahs were happy to have potential troublemakers remove themselves. However I’m not sure about men of military age during the period of the Iran-Iraq war.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Марта 02, 2026, 08:46:05 pm »

Yes, air power alone has never changed a government or won a war without powerful additional factors. Almost always this is military ground forces, typically of the attacking country or allies, or a rebel army. None of these are present yet in Iran.

I and many, many others are happy to see the cruel murderous thugs who enslaved Iran and brought much chaos and death to the Middle East finally delivered into eternal justice. However that shouldn’t be confused with successfully changing the regime they led into something more benign.

As you point out it will also affect the Ukrainian situation most unfortunately. The only positive I can think of is destroying the Iranian drone factories and missile factories assuming the US does so. The effect would be modest though since Russia is building their own in quantities.