Although it is only the middle of summer and there are missel attacks almost every night, I am most concerned about what will happen in the winter. Due to the intensification of russian attacks, Ukraine has lost about a third of its ability to export grain through its key Black Sea ports.
Ukraine exports over $2 billion worth of agricultural products every month. And the lack of these funds will very quickly be felt in both the budget and the foreign exchange market.
Due to the inability to export the new year's harvest, grain prices will fall, and producers will receive less profit - if at all.
Prices for imported products may increase - both due to tension in the foreign exchange market and the growth of the dollar, and due to the increase in the cost of logistics for imports, which also went through seaports. And even if the ports are unblocked, freight will obviously increase - in both directions.
We should also not forget about another large industry, metallurgy, the production volumes of which, although they decreased during the war with the loss of several key enterprises, still remained quite significant for the Ukrainian economy, which is oriented towards exports.
So in general, the blockade of seaports deals a painful blow to the economy, manufacturers, the inflow of foreign exchange into Ukraine, and therefore - to its ability to finance its defense.
There is another important aspect in the situation with the actual suspension of the work of Ukrainian seaports. This is the preparation for a new series of peace negotiations, which is quite obviously taking place on both the Ukrainian and russian sides, as well as in the USA - currently the main mediator.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c89ny7513jeoThe US has suspended attacks on Iran and some analysts attribute this to the depletion of stocks of certain types of weapons. The critical munitions used in the war span two categories: long-range ground attack systems, and the air and missile defences used to intercept incoming Iranian attacks. More than 1,000 Tomahawks have been fired during the war, the CSIS estimates, and the stockpile may not return to pre-war levels until 2031. Of the air defence systems used in the war, the most heavily used was the Patriot, a ground-based missile used to target aircraft, as well as ballistic and cruise missiles. According to the CSIS estimate, as many as 1,430 were used during the conflict from an estimated pre-war stockpile of about 2,330. Each Patriot interceptor costs approximately $4m - an expensive but effective option repeatedly used to shoot down Iranian drones that themselves only cost between $20,000-50,000 each. Also used was a newer, more sophisticated system known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, which has a longer range and higher intercept altitudes than the older Patriot. Supplies were already limited, with CSIS estimating that between 190 and 290 were fired out of an estimated pre-war stock of 360. With only nine THAAD batteries operational in the world - and seven of them American - sustained expenditure could leave US forces without a system that would be critical to defending ballistic missile threats from countries such as russia, China or North Korea.
The apparent tension between arming allies and preserving US reserves is one that has already been played out over Ukraine. Back in October 2025, months before Operation Epic Fury began, Trump declined to give Ukraine Tomahawks, citing a need to avoid depleting US stockpiles. The episode was a preview of the trade-offs now shaping the post-Iran debate over the wider arsenal. Ukrainian officials say they urgently need Patriots and other air defence systems to stem wave after wave of russian drone and missile attacks.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0qvnk2ezp7oPresident Donald Trump has held separate meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Zelensky and Trump discussed Kyiv's hope that the US would help bolster its air defences.
Netanyahu, for his part, arrived at a time when US-Israel ties have been frayed by diverging views on Iran. Ahead of the visit, Zelensky was expected to press Trump to follow through on a promise he made at this month's Nato summit to grant Ukraine a licence to produce Patriot interceptor missiles.
Ukraine has long sought American Patriot missiles, which Kyiv says could be used to defend Ukrainian cities from escalating russian drone and ballistic missile attacks across the country. While there was no official US confirmation of military assistance to Ukraine, Zelenksy said afterwards that Trump had agreed to give Ukraine licences for domestic production of Patriot missiles.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4k2z8z45roI don't know what's behind these statements, because common sense suggests that if the US cannot produce a sufficient number of Patriots at existing factories with its huge economy, then how can Ukraine do it, in which these factories first need to be built while russia destroys even small production facilities with missiles and drones, and financial capabilities depend on EU funding?
It is also obvious that there is great competition between Ukraine and Israel for US military assistance. Besides, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has told members of Congress it will not finish spending $400 million Congress has authorized for aid to Ukraine until fiscal year 2029, even as Kyiv runs critically low on weapons it needs to fend off russian missile attacks.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/pentagon-says-it-will-not-finish-spending-ukraine-funds-until-year-trump-leaves-2026-07-27/But smiles for the cameras do not mean real attitudes at all, and as I predicted earlier, Trump's personal attitude towards Zelensky had a major impact on the US attitude towards Ukraine, which was reflected in a significant reduction in aid. Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, advised Donald Trump not to host Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, having called the Ukrainian president a “little fucker”, a “special-needs child” and “Mr Bean on crack”, according to a new book. The suggestion that a US cabinet official described a world leader in such terms is included in Regime Change, a blockbusting account of the second Trump administration by New York Times reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, set to be published worldwide on Tuesday.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/20/scott-bessent-volodymyr-zelenskyy-trumpWe must also remember that not only Ukraine, but also Europe will have problems with gas, which will certainly affect its policy. The CEO of Europe's largest supplier of natural gas expects the region to fall short of its goal to fill gas storage sites to 80% of capacity before the winter, hampered by market tightness that has increased competition from buyers in Asia. Gas volumes at European storage sites are significantly lower than the five-year average and at their second-lowest level in 15 years, Equinor (EQNR.OL), opens new tab chief Anders Opedal told Reuters. As a result of lower gas storage levels, which currently stand at 54%, Europe will be more exposed to market price swings this winter than in previous winters, he added.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-unlikely-reach-80-gas-storage-target-equinor-ceo-says-2026-07-22/And in Ukraine, where the Cabinet of Ministers is essentially an executive body of the President's Office, the new Prime Minister faces the impossible task of preparing the country for an extremely difficult winter without a Minister of Defense and under the previous team, which he was not allowed to change. And without changing the system, things will not get better. After all, according to rumors, one of the reasons why Fedorov was removed from the Cabinet of Ministers was precisely because he undertook to optimize the procurement system, which created a threat of large-scale corruption.
Hromadske stated that their journalist Yevgeny Shulgat was detained by law enforcement officers for allegedly violating military registration rules and taken to a mobilization center. This journalist was again investigating cases of corruption in law enforcement agencies.
https://hromadske.ua/suspilstvo/268379-u-kyyevi-politsiia-zatrymala-zurnalista-hromadskeThis time, after a big fuss in the media, he was released on the same day, but it is so reminiscent of what is happening in russia. Restricting property rights, blocking all bank cards, taking away a driver’s license, closing access to state services and programs, banning participation in political life, this is a complete list of punitive sanctions that russia has adopted against “foreign agents.”
And this is what they propose to apply in Ukraine to everyone who does not agree to become a slave to the system, placing the function of the penetrative system on the army.
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