It has gotten warmer, but I have been feeling worse than ever in the last few days. Air raid warnings are issued every day, and sometimes drones are shot down by air defenses, but there have been no missile strikes on Kyiv for quite some time. Instead, Ukraine is increasing its air attacks on russia, and one drone even flew into Moscow last night. According to Moscow authorities, the drone hit an apartment building near the city center.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/crep7p1j0ydoAlso, with the development of interceptor drones, the economic balance has changed. One of Moscow's most powerful weapons has been the Iranian-designed low-cost, long range Shahed-136 attack drone, plus its own updated version, the Geran. While a Shahed can cost between $80,000 and $130,000 (£59,500 and £95,500), it can be intercepted with systems costing as little as $10,000 (£7,400). That's far cheaper than traditional air defence missiles which cost millions of dollars.
Crude oil export data suggests the rise in prices, plus the easing of American sanctions on countries buying russian oil, boosted russian revenues to 2.3 times their December-February levels in the third week of the Iran war. But in the fourth week, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy-producing infrastructure reduced russia's earnings by $1 billion, eradicating around two-thirds of the previous week's gains.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgjp7vpee03oBut recently, no one has mentioned the main threat that made Biden and others extremely reluctant to help Ukraine in recent years? The fact that russia could use nuclear weapons to finally solve the problem of Kyiv? Maybe this is why Trump is withdrawing his troops from Europe?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0729d374mxoGlobally, russia’s economy is now being countered by the economy of the European Union, which continues to finance Ukraine. Also, russia’s advance on the front has slowed down again, which all together gives the Ukrainian authorities reason to hope, if not for stopping the war, then for the ability to continue it indefinitely. But the problems within the country have not only not gone away, but also continue to accumulate. No one knows how much money will actually be left for the social sphere, what will happen to energy and heating in the winter in large cities. Also, in recent days, Zelensky's confrontation with his former associates has intensified, which is why he even imposed personal sanctions against his former head of the President's Office, Andriy Bohdan, who was one of those who brought Zelensky to power in the 2019 elections.
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/svoboda-live-zelenskyy-bohdan-natsbezpeka-sanktsiyi-mindichheyt-plivky/33749669.html In response, Bohdan said that he would no longer adhere to the moratorium on criticism of the authorities. One can imagine how much sensitive information he has on Zelensky. But I am more concerned not so much that Zelensky can be removed by his former associates, but what his successors will be like, and whether it will happen like in Iran, when the new government made life in the country even worse than it was during the time of the Ayatollah killed by the Americans.
But the problem is much deeper and more destructive in the conditions of Ukraine. The problem of imbalance that is most clearly occurs in issues of social justice in general and mobilization in particularly.
The worst problem of modernity lies in the malignant transfer of fragility and antifragility from one party to the other, with one getting the benefits, the other one (unwittingly) getting the harm, with such transfer facilitated by the growing wedge between the ethical and legal. This state of affairs has existed before, but is acute today— modernity hides it especially well. It is, of course, an agency problem. And the agency problem is, of course, an asymmetry. We are witnessing of fundamental change. Consider older societies—those societies that have survived. The main difference between us and them is the disappearance of a sense of heroism; A shift away from a certain respect— and power— But those who take downside risks for others. Heroism is the exact inverse of the agency problem: someone elects to bear the disadvantage (risks his own life, or harm to himself, or, in milder forms, accepts to deprive himself of some benefits) for the sake of others. What we have currently is the opposite: power seems to go to those, like bankers, corporate executives (non entrepreneurs), and politicians, who steal a free options from society.
And heroism is not just about riots and wars. Excerpt from:
Skin in the Game: Antifragility and Optionality the Expense of Others
Nassim N. Taleb
The number of reserved men at Ukrainian enterprises will be reviewed, because the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are understaffed, and the authorities must act. This was reported by the People's Deputy from the Servant of the People party, Serhiy Nagornyak, in an interview with "Telegraph". He also believes that it is necessary to nullify absolutely all disability certificates without exception, that is, to make everyone "healthy" again. Instead, the deputy believes that the state should offer them economic reservation, that is, to buy off the service with money.
https://telegraf.ua/ukr/ukrayina/5939265-zsu-ne-vistachae-cholovikiv-usi-dovidki-pro-invalidnist-treba-obnuliti-v-radi-rozpovili-yak-mozhna-vryatuvati-mobilizatsiyuThe idea of redeeming oneself from slavery is not new. It is very reminiscent of the system of serfdom that existed in the russian Empire until 1861, and seems to have been restored in 2022 in Ukraine. Part of the population was actually deprived of their freedom, but was left with the opportunity to pay off with bribes. Now they are proposing to do this officially and consider it "justice."
Meanwhile, the military complains that mobilization centers send sick people, drug addicts, and marginalized people who are simply unfit to serve into the army, which actually only weakens the army.
https://hromadske.ua/viyskovi/263038-ti-koho-nadsylaiut-ttsk-tse-katastrofa-khodiacha-shcho-robyty-z-armiyeiu-neprydatnykh Also, some distribution and training centers, judging by the videos, photos and stories that are periodically heard by friends and relatives of mobilized people, are more reminiscent of concentration camps surrounded by barbed wire and lacking conditions for stay. Those who escape from there say that it is better not to end up there. Therefore, it is not surprising that people are increasingly choosing resistance when detained on the street. A man was detained in Dnipro, who on May 4 wounded three servicemen of the mobilization center with a firearm.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1w2e77z7n3oBut law enforcement agencies only pursue draft evaders, although it is still unclear who is harming the country's defense capabilities more.
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