Ukraine updates in English

[KD8ZM-Brady]

In regard to VP Harris's remarks: This morning earlier I also was thinking about the (unreasonable) demands coming from the US that Ukraine not inflict much damage on Russian infrastructure. It is impossible to win a war when one side is free to inflict any damage they want to, while the other combatant must restrain themselves in order to satisfy their "allies" who are concerned only about the effect of gasoline prices on their re-election. If this demand continues as-is (and I have no doubt that it will), then Ukraine will ultimately lose.
If I were Ukrainian, I'd be praying for the Lord to provide a way of escape.

[US7IGN]

This morning the rain from yesterday continued until lunchtime. It's cold and damp again. I went to the market and discovered that large eggs now cost a little over a dollar a dozen, but meat had gone up a bit in price again.

In the morning after the air raid, it turned out that russian terrorists hit the center of Chernigiv, 100 km North from Kyiv, with three missiles. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68833833 My friend who lives there was at that time in a village nearby and did not regret it. Also today something was damaged in Odessa. Apparently air defense remains only in Kyiv.

Eyewitnesses report explosions in the area of the Dzhankoy military airfield in annexed Crimea on the morning of April 17. https://www.svoboda.org/a/v-dzhankoe-proizoshli-vzryvy-vozle-voennogo-aerodroma-voznik-pozhar/32908719.html There is no official information, but this is one of the few military successes in recent days.

Politico published an article "Ukraine is heading for defeat". https://www.politico.eu/article/why-ukraine-losing-russia-war/
The author rightly admits that Ukraine has big problems due to the lack of weapons and foreign assistance, low morale, and also accuses ordinary Ukrainians of not wanting to fight, but ignores the role of the Ukrainian authorities in this. The system they created in which the poor and sick, deprived of all rights and the opportunity to work and support their families, must fight with shovels, while the rich have fun and are not limited by anything, and the corrupt vertical of power generates billions of dollars from theft from the budget and bribery, by no means does not contribute to the country’s ability to defend itself, much less win. It is not surprising that fewer and fewer Ukrainians see the point in defending a country in which they are assigned the role of powerless slaves. The intimidation that the russians will destroy all the captured cities and kill all the inhabitants no longer looks very convincing to those who are interested in life in the occupied territories. Recently, those who have accepted russian citizenship have practically returned to normal life. Those who left Ukrainian passports can go anywhere without any problems.

In fact, all this resembles a soap opera in which everything goes exactly according to the script. At the right time, dramatic tension is created, from time to time old heroes leave and new ones appear. Intrigues and sudden plot changes keep viewers from getting bored. Despite everything, the situation can radically change in any direction. It's just not very comfortable to watch it while on stage.

Himera announced that it entered the world market and got an exclusive supplier in the USA. Their partner was the American company Reticulate Micro. https://www.facebook.com/HimeraUkraine/posts/pfbid0eKSzRtsPAJN8QrnN91vmSphrU3ueCE3NwJgYT1Md4iYXDd7jVvzc6va3dzfjKgwol?locale=uk_UA
If they find buyers, it is definitely a success. At least the business scheme looks working. If, for example, an American company formally participates in the tender, this will significantly increase the chances of winning. Especially if the terms state that preference will be given to a foreign company, and the one who offers the lowest price will win. At least this is how it is done in Ukraine and no one is interested in the opinion of those who will later use that equipment.

[US7IGN]

In regard to VP Harris's remarks: This morning earlier I also was thinking about the (unreasonable) demands coming from the US that Ukraine not inflict much damage on Russian infrastructure. It is impossible to win a war when one side is free to inflict any damage they want to, while the other combatant must restrain themselves in order to satisfy their "allies" who are concerned only about the effect of gasoline prices on their re-election. If this demand continues as-is (and I have no doubt that it will), then Ukraine will ultimately lose.
If I were Ukrainian, I'd be praying for the Lord to provide a way of escape.

Every day I ask God to give me a sign and I see nothing. Despite the emotional chaos, carefully supported by the authorities, bloggers, journalists, experts and the people themselves, which excite each other, for some reason I look at everything that is happening very calmly and do not rule out an unexpected end to the war, including not only because of the defeat of Ukraine. Something tells me that a decision on this has either already been made or is being made, but russia has neither decisive superiority nor the right to vote.

[US7IGN]

It rained all day again and I woke up late. The additional medications seem to be working, my blood pressure has dropped a little and I feel better. In a month you will need to take tests again and perhaps adjust something.

In the morning, during another air attack, something exploded in the Dnipro. Three missiles hit their targets. Lately, they no longer write how many were shot down and how many were not.

Today I watched a large professional development webinar on the topic of criminal prosecution of those who cooperate with the occupation authorities. The lecturer's main attention was paid to various problems. Predictably, conflicting legislation, failure to follow procedures by law enforcement agencies, and unavailability of legal assistance lead to the unjustified prosecution of innocent people. For example, sentences in criminal cases with real prison terms for those who practiced medicine or performed technical work in the occupied territories look nonsense, although such people are directly protected by international conventions on the protection of civilians during war, which are recognized by Ukraine.

However, chaotic changes in legislation lately have led to the emergence of a huge number of not always professional advice, especially in matters of mobilization. Illiterate people, lack of access to legal assistance, violations and abuses by officials and law enforcement agencies make the process of communication between people and the state extremely conflict-ridden and regularly leads to violence on all sides. The presence of a huge amount of illegal weapons among the population, on the one hand, equalizes the chances, but in general, the opening of a second front within the country can destroy this state.

Observing how things are going with Navalna, it seems that the West has a desire to once again play democracy with russia. This can be understood given the risks of complete control over russia by China. But this means that russia cannot lose in this war, and accordingly, Ukraine cannot win.

By the end of May, Ukraine will be able to export all the remaining grain of the 2023 harvest, which will lead to an increase in prices for it both on the domestic and global markets, the president of the Ukrainian Grain Association Mykola Horbachev said at the Black Sea Grain conference in Kyiv on Thursday. https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/981362.html
It sounds quite ambiguous. I do not rule out that if all the grain is sold, it will be necessary to buy it more expensively from the Poles, who will resell the russian grain collected in the occupied territories. It also indirectly says that there was not so much grain, since despite the complaints about blocking the borders, in fact, almost all the grain was already exported.

[US7IGN]

CIA Director Bill Burns on Thursday warned that unless US sends more military support, Ukraine could “lose” the war against Russia by the end of the year. Just a month ago, Burns had warned in testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee that if Congress did not move to authorize additional support — long hampered by conservative opposition in the House of Representatives — “Ukraine is likely to lose ground and probably significant ground in 2024.”
But on Thursday during an appearance at the George W. Bush Center, he warned that Ukraine could be forced to capitulate entirely.
“With the boost that would come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, I think the Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own through 2024,” Burns said.
“Without supplemental assistance, the picture is a lot more dire,” he continued. “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could dictate the terms of a political settlement.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/18/politics/cia-director-ukraine-russia-warning/index.html

The head of the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, Denys Malyuska, said that the mobilization of prisoners will solve at least two issues: it will increase the number of military personnel and reduce the burden on prisons.

"We will win in two aspects. First, we will have military personnel. In the second aspect, we will not have to think about how to protect, feed, take care of them. Especially, in conditions of scarcity of resources and conditions of limited number in In our country, the number of people entering our institutions is increasing, and the number (of institutions) is decreasing. At some point, we can "flake up", so we need to think about how to reduce the number of those we care for in ours institutions," said Denys Malyuska.
 
He also added that the number of prisoners has increased due to the fact that "new categories of criminals that did not exist before" have appeared.

"In particular, there are a lot of collaborators. Before these were isolated cases, now it is quite a mass phenomenon... This is a new category that is difficult for us, because it is difficult for them to mix with other prisoners for security reasons. It is risky for their lives and health - other prisoners do not like this category. There are also categories related to military service," said Denys Malyuska.

According to him, we are talking about war crimes or crimes related to the fact that now it has become much more difficult with weapons.

"Accordingly, I can say that the number of people in each institution based on the area of the institution is growing, and it is growing significantly. This is a big problem and it needs to be solved somehow. How long-term - I can't even imagine. Maybe mobilization will become this recipe which will save us at least for a year or two," he added.
https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/malyuska-zrobiv-zayavu-pro-mobilizaciyu-zasudzhenih-ta-perepovneni-v-yaznici-yaki-mozhut-lusnuti-2560804.html

[N0TZU]

I have been expecting US House speaker Johnson to more broadly accept support from House Democrats to move legislation, abandoning the so called Hastert Rule (good riddance!), and to counter the extremist Republicans threatening to remove him as Speaker. It looks like that will happen and aid to Ukraine may be restored soon. I certainly hope so.

Regarding the admonitions to Ukraine from the US administration to avoid striking Russian energy infrastructure:

In normal US political times, a moderate oil price increase from such actions, if it occurred, wouldn’t be such a cause for concern to either Ukraine or the US, and there would be support for Ukrainian actions. But these are not normal times, and one party out of two has lost its moral compass and much of its sanity, IMO.  Of course Biden and the Democrats want to be re-elected, so there is self interest involved. But much more importantly for Ukraine, consider what would rapidly happen if Trump is elected.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

I would say that both parties have lost their sanity. Only in different ways. Especially in regard to out of control spending, but it goes beyond that. I am disgusted by US politics overall.
Europe seems to be slowly recognizing that Russia is not going to stop at Ukraine, should their invasion succeed. I hope Europe picks up the slack until the US election is over, and that the current government can stop being scared of the election effects of marginally high fuel prices. Besides, the government has the power to regulate the export of refined fuels by executive order, to mitigate fuel prices at the pump.

[ke6sls]

This afternoon the Ukraine aid bill was passed.  Finally!

73
Jaye

[US7IGN]

It rained all night, I had strange dreams, I woke up several times and feel tired, although the blood pressure and pulse numbers are normal. Sometimes it seems that medications affect the numbers, but not the condition. It’s +14C in the apartment, but if you dress well and put a couple of bottles of warm water under the blanket before going to bed, you can warm up.

The last few days have been quite active in terms of missile attacks. russian terrorists are attacking Kharkov, Odessa, Dnipro, Sumy and Zaporozhye with drones and missiles, and aerial bombs. But they get targeted strikes in return.

A source of the Ukrainian Air Force in the main intelligence department reported that on April 11 and 17, drones attacked the russian over-the-horizon "Container" radar on the territory of the military radio engineering unit near the city of Kovilkino in russian Mordovia.
russia put the ultra-powerful over-the-horizon radar station "Container" on combat duty only in December 2019. Before that, it worked in experimental and combat mode for 7 years, and its construction began in the early 2000s. It cost 10 billion rubles.

The antenna system of the already built "Container" consists of 144 masts with a height of 34 meters. The length of the system is 1.3 km, width - 200 meters. The masts are arranged in the shape of a triangle to receive the signal from different sides.

So far, "Container" tracks only the western direction for the declared range of three thousand km with a viewing sector of 240 degrees. It can simultaneously "lead" about 5,000 air targets located at an altitude of up to 100 km and at a distance of up to 3,000 km, but no closer than 900 km. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c51nxp4n8q1o

The Ukrainian military announced that on April 19 they managed to shoot down a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber two Kh-22 cruise missiles, which it used to attack Ukrainian cities for the first time. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3gem0evr11o

The russians say that the plane fell due to a technical malfunction, and the Ukrainians say that it was shot down by a modernized Soviet missile system. There is also a version that it was shot down by russian own air defense units. In any case, this is good news, although we must not forget that they still have more than 50 such aircraft.

The exchange of missile strikes between Israel and Iran appears to have ended without further escalation, but tensions remain. This gives hope that Iran will help russia less because of its own needs for missiles and drones.

The energy company warns of possible power outages in Kyiv, but so far there have been none. Nevertheless, everything is charged, a month's supply of food and water, candles, batteries and everything else has been unchanged for two years...

[N0TZU]

Wlad, I hope warmer weather comes soon and that you feel better with more time on the new medication.

Interesting info about Container. I hope the UA strike did substantial damage.

The TU-22M3 downing, assuming it was, is a milestone. Congratulations to your armed forces on destroying it so far from Ukraine.

The recent Iran/Israel open conflict on home territory was a little scary, as it could have escalated rapidly. Thankfully cooler heads prevailed. I agree with the opinion (I would give credit but I can’t find it now) that Iran “lost” the conflict and was shown to be quite weak in fighting its own battles. This because Iran was unable to directly harm Israel despite a massive aerial attack foiled by defensive systems and allied help, while Israel was easily able to send a single missile to target and explode right next to one of their prized nuclear installations. The clear message: Israel can strike you at will.

At long last it seems US aid will be restored very shortly! I despaired when Mike Johnson was voted Speaker of the House because of his far right views including antipathy toward Ukraine. His election seemed to cement the power of the minority of extremists in the GOP who had taken the House hostage. (This had been building for a long time actually, but that’s another topic).

But to his credit, Johnson changed his thinking over time and worked to secure the funding at substantial risk to his political career. He was only able to do so by ignoring the extremists and working with moderate Republicans and the Democrats. Here is a good article about it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/21/ukraine-aid-mike-johnson-house-speaker/

I am still sad and quite embarrassed that my country failed to aid Ukraine for months while the bombs rained down and the rabid extremists held sway in our Congress. I hope it will never be repeated.

[US7IGN]

This afternoon the Ukraine aid bill was passed.  Finally!

73
Jaye

President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed his gratitude to the US House of Representatives for approving a new $61bn (£49bn) package of military assistance for Ukraine after months of delays. He said the aid could save thousands of lives.

Well, I hope this time everything will be different than last time when late help led to the failure of the counter-offensive last year and carefully hidden casualties. If we consider only the facts, we see results that contradict the declared intentions.

At Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO) questioned Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin about Ukraine aid: "What does victory look like for Ukraine? How do you define victory?"

Austin answeared: "You may have heard my previous statements, Senator, we have said from the very beginning that we would like to see Ukraine as a democratic and independent country so that it can defend its sovereign territory and repel aggression."

Sen. Eric Schmitt: "With all due respect, I think part of the problem is that this administration has not outlined an exit strategy. As for me, this is carte blanche for a war that, without any clearly defined goals, will be endless. This is where the skepticism comes from. So I did not vote for an additional aid package because we do not have sufficient control over the spending of funds. And victory is not yet determined."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVPa6CqAsXw

THE UKRAINE SECURITY SUPPLEMENTAL APPROPRIATIONS ACT, 2024
The section totals $60.8 billion to address the conflict in Ukraine and assist our regional partners
as they counter Russia, $48.3 billion (or 79%) of which will fund the U.S. defense industrial base.
• Converts all financial assistance to Ukraine’s government into a loan.
• Requires the Administration to submit to Congress within 45 days a strategy establishing
specific and achievable objectives, with metrics, that define and prioritize U.S. national
security interests.
• Bolsters oversight through in-person monitoring requirements.
• Requires partners and allies to pay their fair share through cost-matching requirements.
• Increases the fiscal limits on several Presidential drawdown authorities.
• $13.4 billion to replenish American defense stockpiles.
• $7.3 billion for current U.S. military operations in the region.
• $13.9 billion for the procurement of advanced weapons systems, defense articles, and
defense services.
• $13.7 billion for purchasing U.S. defense systems for Ukraine.
• $26 million for oversight and accountability of aid and equipment provided to Ukraine.
https://www.speaker.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Fact-Sheet_National-Security-Supplemental.docx.pdf

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will head to Beijing this week, with a warning for China to curb its technical support for Russia's military — or else. https://www.politico.eu/article/antony-blinken-head-back-china-armed-threat-russian-military-aid/

The German chancellor Olaf Scholz held talks with the Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, as well as holding discussions with business leaders across China. https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/04/19/scholzs-visit-to-china-balancing-distance-and-diplomacy

No one talks about russia’s defeat and can’t even formulate what would be considered a victory for Ukraine.

These are the facts. They speak volumes. I am not a big analyst like highly paid guys from reputable media and various international organizations, and I only have publicly available information.

Based on the above, I can assume that there are active negotiations between the United States and Europe with China, in which the war in Ukraine is only one of the points for discussion and bargaining. From this point of view, the very process of adopting the Law on assistance to Ukraine looks like an instrument of pressure. Because the actual volumes of assistance and the timing of its provision are not yet known. I mean that the required amount of weapons will not automatically appear in the Ukrainian army immediately after Biden signs it.

However, if russia does not agree to end the war and China to help russia, some amount of American weapons will be delivered and the fighting will become more intense. The absence of large-scale offensives or meat assaults by russia, which is presented as its weakness, seems to me to be just a change in the approach to war. They became rational. Their soldiers have become well equipped, they first bomb and destroy fortifications and kill Ukrainian soldiers, and then slowly occupy more and more territories. Authorities show us every month the numbers of dead russians, but I am alarmed that they have not changed for a very long time and do not depend on the number of weapons Ukraine has. But what is even more important is that the number of deaths in Ukraine is not shown, although an indirect method has long been known - it is enough to come to the cemetery once a month and see how the number of fresh graves changes.

So what will be the immediate result of getting the extra weapon? Victory over russia? No. Ending the war? No. Tens of thousands of dead Ukrainians and several destroyed cities? Yes. Worst of all, an endless war of attrition leads to the attrition of only russia and Ukraine at a rate not in favor of Ukraine, and this is presented as the only option. Why isn't anyone suggesting other options? I understand Zelensky and the authorities, who offered the West an agreement "your weapons - our people", but they did not ask the people if they agree to it.

[N0TZU]

Information:

There is a mobile app from Google, Google Translate, which can translate text seen in the device camera. I use it on my phone and point the camera at the buttons and labels for this forum seen on my iPad screen. It makes it much easier to post.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Wlad, I totally agree with your analysis, and it's part of the reason why there is less support for funding Ukraine than there would otherwise be, among Americans. Our being deathly afraid of Russia's nuclear threats means there can never be a victory. The US and European governments have to decide that they're going to help Ukraine win the war by making Russia sick of the attacks on its own territory, based on Churchill's principle that the aggressor will make war until they have gotten so much war in return, that they are fed up with war.

The current situation in Ukraine is like a boxer who takes blow after blow, but isn't allowed to punch back. Biden's and the EU's fear of WW3 may actually lead to WW3, just as Neville Chamberlain's fear of WW2 helped lead to WW2.

That is why I applauded Macron when he said there may need to be European boots on the ground in Ukraine, if that's what it takes to win (sadly, other EU governments immediately undermined his statement, signaling to Russia that they have nothing to fear from Europe).

From what I've heard from military people, this coming week may be a very critical one for military movements worldwide.

[N0TZU]

I too agree with you and with Brady. I have said before that IMO Biden was too cautious in the aid to Ukraine, and so didn’t capitalize enough on the great outpouring of support for Ukraine here in the beginning and throughout the first year of the war to ship far more and better weapons including aircraft. Domestically the extremist opponents among the US public and in Congress have had time to organize themselves, and elections are now close.

 The funding from the just passed bill is shamefully late but at least it’s done. I hope that the Speaker’s eyes have been opened enough that more such aid will be forthcoming soon. Democrats and many Republicans will support him in that, and I believe they will also vote to keep him as Speaker should the extremists follow through on threats to remove him.

 When reading about the bill its worth noting that monies for restocking US weapons means (generally) that more of ours can be sent to Ukraine. Also I noted the expected fig leaf of a “loan” and forgiveness clause for the money that will actually be sent to Ukraine.

[US7IGN]

Information:

There is a mobile app from Google, Google Translate, which can translate text seen in the device camera. I use it on my phone and point the camera at the buttons and labels for this forum seen on my iPad screen. It makes it much easier to post.

Good adviсe!

I use it regularly. Although, when I tried to translate the old receiver's service manual from French, it was unable to adequately translate the outdated abbreviations and words.