Ukraine updates in English

[US7IGN]

There is an interesting article about russian agents in Europe https://www.thetimes.com/article/02dbb068-6bf5-4984-9943-d66d55aa80ec?shareToken=251b34b0e87f7c17272a0b44bf03dec2

Impressive, isn't it? But this is only the tip of the iceberg...

From time to time, when lawyers state another violation of human rights and wonder what rights still exist, we can still see publications in which people have the courage to express their opinion without fear of criminal prosecution.

One of them is Hennadiy Druzenko, who reflects in his publication on the relationship between citizens and the state and wants to hear from the President of Ukraine not a shorthand report on the current work done over the past day, but the outlines of a new social contract that he offers to the citizens of the state for which he is sending kill them and die. Because there are almost no people willing to go fight for Ukraine just because it is "not russia" and should remain so. He wants to hear what kind of Ukraine are we fighting for? What does this state offer its citizens, other than the right to heroically die for it?

A modern country is a tango for two. A citizen has a duty to obey laws, defend his state and pay taxes. And the state must guarantee him safety, justice and predictability. And also the right to participate in the management of the country. Otherwise, it turns out to be a one-goal game, in which fewer and fewer Ukrainians want to play...

Those who were ready to die for any state under the yellow-blue flag are running out. Generations that have tasted the delights of an open global world ask: if I give a few years, health or even life to this state, what will I get from it in return? In Shevchenko's ingenious manifesto of independence: "In one's house, truth, power, and will are one's own," the emphasis shifted from the word "own" to "truth" and "will." Own managerial impotence, thievery, and corruption are not enough. "Ukraine should be looted by Ukrainians" is no longer inspiring... Source: https://censor.net/ua/b3496150

[N0TZU]

I agree with Sandor Fabian that modern war involves assymetry of small inexpensive weapons being able to destroy large expensive ones, and that all countries must adjust their forces to account for this. This has been coming for a long time now, and absolutely must be addressed rapidly, but military attitudes and weapons procurement often move like molasses in winter.

However I disagree with him about the “limited utility of the western way of warfare”. This is drawing the wrong conclusion from the Russian war on Ukraine, and its defense. There’s nothing inherently Western about “combined arms maneuver warfare”, and the Russians do it too, when they can. They would do more of it if they had the ability.

Ukraine has not had the opportunity to mount substantial and effective combined arms warfare because first, it lacks air power, including electronic countermeasures against air defense, to take out enemy positions and to provide support to ground forces. Second it has very limited availability of armored vehicles, and third, but certainly not least, Ukraine has been restricted from having, or using, long range western weapons to destroy Russian aircraft and other forces deep within Russian territory.

If early on Ukraine been able and allowed to attack and destroy Russian forces and assets far from the border, supply routes such as the Kerch bridge, and most of the Black Sea fleet, I believe the present war would likely already be over, though Putin, were he still President, would no doubt try again in the future.

This teaches a lesson that Fabian neglects, which is that there is no substitute for a devastating, widespread and decisive counterattack to the initial aggression. Capable long range, precision weapons combined with so called Western methods are ideal for this. This is especially true when the aggressor can absorb virtually unlimited amounts of “proportional responses”, as Russia can.

Obviously as Fabian points out, small nations usually cannot afford to fund such a capability either in materiel or in men. But this is exactly why NATO is so important, because it combines multiple countries into a unified military capability.

Fighting a purely defensive war, with artificial territorial and rules of engagement limits, while the enemy can prosecute their offensive from safe territory is always a losing strategy, or at best, a stalemate after a long war of attrition. There are several obvious examples over the last 75 years.

[US7IGN]

I agree with you Bob. The main thing is that this war showed that many old solutions do not work, and the main factors that affect the success of all sides are technologies and the international situation. The support of allies and the attitude to the war of other countries is becoming more important than the resources of the immediate participants in the war. It is necessary to recognize the fact that despite russia's multiple superiority in resources, it would have surrendered long ago if it did not have the support of China, India, Iran and other countries. Therefore, the end of this war will depend not on the desire of russia, but on the support of the allies and the possibility of continuing the war.

In this regard, Xi's visit to Kazakhstan is very important. Leaders from China, russia and countries in the global south are gathering in Kazakhstan for the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a group that has been described as the “anti-Nato”.
Established as the “Shanghai Five” in 1996, the group was originally a forum for the founding members – China, russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – to thrash out border disputes. Since then, its membership and scope has expanded to include countries as diverse and mutually disagreeable as India, Pakistan and Iran. This year, Belarus is expected to be welcomed into the fold.
The summit is part of China’s efforts to establish what it calls a “multilateral” world order that is not dominated by the US. But it is also a forum in which China and russia’s “strategic partnership” will be tested by their competing desires to wield influence in central Asia.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/03/xi-jinping-central-asia-trip-china-vies-regional-influence-russia

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban yesterday unexpectedly visited Ukraine. He respects President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's peace formula but considers it too lengthy to implement. At a press conference in Kyiv, the head of the Hungarian government stated that he is offering Ukraine alternative options to end the war. Orban noted that he proposed an immediate ceasefire to Zelenskyy for further negotiations. https://news.liga.net/en/politics/news/orban-asks-zelenskyy-to-consider-ceasefire-and-negotiations-in-kyiv

The attempt to organize a coup went completely unnoticed by the Ukrainians.

Ukraine has foiled an alleged plot to overthrow the government that “would have played into russia’s hands,” security officials in the war-torn country said Monday. In a Telegram post, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed the plot organizers planned to trigger a riot in Kyiv on June 30 as a distraction to seize control of the Ukrainian parliament and remove the military and political leadership from power. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/02/europe/ukraine-thwarts-coup-attempt-intl-hnk/index.html

Let me just remind you that Telegram is controlled by russia.
https://www.dw.com/en/is-telegram-a-threat-to-ukraines-national-security/a-68732966

For the past two years, Ukraine’s creditors have agreed to suspend debt-service payments. The let-off—from both government and private lenders—is worth 15% of GDP a year. Indeed, if payments had been required, they would have been the state’s second-biggest expenditure, behind defence. Now, however, the moratorium from private foreign bondholders, including Amundi, a French asset manager, and Pimco, an American one, is set to expire on August 1st.

Thus Ukraine has a month to avoid default. The IMF is keen for Minister of Finance Mr Marchenko to negotiate a write-down, but a deal seems unlikely in the time available. If Ukraine does default, it would reflect a troubling lack of faith among private investors concerning the West’s commitment. In the long run, that could spell disaster for the country’s recovery. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/06/30/ukraine-has-a-month-to-avoid-default

In fact, Ukraine has been in default for a long time, but if states can continue to finance Ukraine at the expense of their taxpayers, then investment funds are not engaged in charity and the task of their management is to generate income for their clients. Therefore, Ukraine's ability to service debt is a direct indicator for any private investor.

Ukrainian business negatively evaluates business activity due to the following factors:
- maintaining uncertainty about the duration of the war,
- an increase in business costs due to electricity shortages due to russian attacks on the power system and tariff increases,
- weak investment demand,
- deterioration of course expectations,
- unfavorable trends in the labor market, as well as a significant shortage of qualified workers.
This is evidenced by the Index of Expectations of Business Activity in June, published by the National Bank of Ukraine
https://businessua.com/finance/97760chomu-biznes-negativno-ocinyue-dilovu-aktivnist-top-6-prichin.html

[US7IGN]

Today there was no electricity longer than it was. It is not so difficult to charge a phone or a computer with powerbank, but with refrigerators, everything is much worse. Even in stores that use generators, few lights and only some refrigerators are left on. There is often an unpleasant smell and you have to be very careful with meat, milk and other perishable products. Air temperature of 35C makes the situation even more difficult.

The population's use of generators and home-made batteries leads to fires. https://unn.ua/news/u-bilii-tserkvi-stalasia-pozhezha-cherez-henerator-vybukhnulo-pislia-kilkokh-hodyn-roboty

Yesterday my friend sent me a video of a fire in her neighboring house and she was very scared. https://www.unian.ua/incidents/novini-kiyeva-masshtabna-pozhezha-viruye-u-zhk-respublika-na-teremkah-novini-kiyeva-12684600.html

It is especially dangerous to live in modern high-rise buildings with no gas and dense buildings. Also, due to the unpredictability of power outages, there is a great risk of getting stuck in the elevator and not everyone can climb above 10 floors at once.

Wireline Internet operators have provided power to their network equipment, but mobile operators are warning about the impossibility of charging batteries of base stations and communication problems. https://itechua.com/news/261685

In the evening of June 30, the russian occupying forces launched a missile attack on Kyiv. Anti-aircraft defenses destroyed enemy targets, but debris fell on a 14-story building. There was a fire. https://hromadske.ua/viyna/226961-u-kyyevi-ulamky-rakety-poshkodyly-bahatopoverkhivku

In Kharkiv, Dnipro and smaller cities closer to the front, people also die and there is more destruction.
https://suspilne.media/dnipro/782081-travmovana-zinka-cerez-padinna-ulamkiv-raketi-obstrili-nikopolsini-golovni-novini-dnipra-ta-oblasti-3-lipna/
https://rubryka.com/2024/07/02/obstril-harkova-okupanty-skynuly-dva-fab-500-postrazhdaly-chetvero-meshkantsiv/

In occupied Donetsk and other cities, almost every day something explodes and is destroyed, there are problems with electricity. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-povidomlennia-vybuhy-donetsk/33020576.html

[US7IGN]

Maryna and Kate returned to Poland today. The week flew by very quickly and it's a pity that I was sick all this time. Even today I still cough. But they managed to do a lot. Unfortunately, Kate's eyesight deteriorated again and they bought two new glasses. She has grown a lot in the year since I last saw her and wore her older brother's t-shirts, which remained in the closet. They also visited the dentist. We can no longer afford the same dentist who treated our teeth for the past 10 years, so we turned to the clinic next door. Maybe simple dental fillings will be of normal quality.

Kate dreams of growing up, earning money and having eye surgery. Maybe that's why she studies so well, because she doesn't have to rely on me anymore. She applied to the lyceum with a competition of 29 people for a place, but she passed the exams with a result of 96% to 100% and we believe that she will be enrolled in the lyceum.

When there was no electricity, I remembered how my grandmother made oil lamps and I made the same one to show Kate. She was surprised that it can be made from a piece of potato and any oil, for example from canned fish. It smoked and there was a strong smell of fried potatoes, but it perfectly matched the atmosphere and reminded us of how our ancestors lived 100 years ago. Well, of course, with the exception of those who died during the famine arranged by russian androphages.

The executive director of the association "Energy-efficient cities of Ukraine" Svyatoslav Pavlyuk said that every residence in Ukraine should be equipped with a battery for storing electricity. The power of such equipment will reach 7-10 kWh for the amount of 3-4 thousand dollars. This will give people the opportunity to save electricity during those periods of the day when it is cheaper. According to this "expert", Ukrainians "eaten up" these funds in the past so people will have to return them. https://one.ua/15510-ukraincy-proeli-sredstva-na-oborudovanie-dlya-nakopleniya-elektroenergii-pavlyuk

I live in a poor area and I see that when it's dark, some light is visible only in a few windows in the houses opposite and these are small lanterns. That is, such advice is senseless and offensive, but it perfectly demonstrates how far the government and rich people are from ordinary people and their opportunities.

[N0TZU]

Yes and the pace of technology advancing to smaller, lighter, less expensive weapon is accelerating. Then we have the infant AI technology which in a few years will autonomous weapons to be fielded.

I like your point about the interdependency of countries being a prime factor in military success today. Russia obviously is a prime example since they have mismanaged their economy, resources and human capital for centuries, which continues even now. But other advanced nations including the US have similar problems in various degrees, especially after losses of native industry because of low cost Chinese imports. Fortunately as you know these problems have been recognized and are in the process of being mitigated.

A multipolar would be natural, but it seems more likely to become a “bipolar +” world, where soon China will clearly lead the authoritarian pole (if they want to but i’m not sure that they do) and Russia will be in the main supporting role. However it will likely be a very fractious group and China will not have an easy time managing it.

Interesting article on this topic:

https://archive.ph/2024.07.01-103740/https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/russia-china-nato-axis-resistance/678831/

Sorry to hear that the electric supply is becoming worse because of Russian attacks. I will not forget that a group in the US House of Representatives combined with weak leadership caused a six month delay in arms shipments which was a major factor.

[N0TZU]

Good to hear that Maryna and Kate were able to have the dental work and that Kate received new glasses. I hope your illness passes soon. Here Covid-19 is resurgent on the west coast and no doubt will be moving east.

If I may ask, is Kate’s eye condition one of refraction needing corrective glasses (or laser surgery) rather than something more organic?

From her excellent test scores, it certainly seems likely that Kate will be admitted to the Lyceum. When will she know the decision?

[US7IGN]

There are court decisions in which the courts recognize the actions of mobilization centers as illegal and cancel fines, oblige the release of illegally detained persons, but cases of prosecution of the guilty are almost unknown.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/304844-eks-nalogovyy-militsioner-poluchil-ot-ttsk-17-tysyach-grn-shtrafa-za-neobnovlenie-dannykh-khotya-obnovil-ikh-cherez-rezerv-i-obraschalsya-v-ttsk-s-zayavleniem-o-prinyatii-ego-na-uchet

Also, lawyers are forced to act in conditions of secrecy of normative acts that regulate the activities of the military, although according to 57 of the Constitution of Ukraine, laws and other legal acts defining the rights and obligations of citizens, which are not brought to the attention of the population in the manner established by law, are invalid.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/304875-v-kabmine-i-minoborony-otvetili-pochemu-postanovlenie-o-rezerv-zasekrecheno

MP Maryana Bezugla criticizes the generals for improperly organizing the training of soldiers and their inability to do their job, and asks why none of them have been brought to justice.https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10231532767932943&id=1551784961&rdid=QR6Gj38pxwf0ayT9

On the forums you can find, for example, reports that only 1.5 months can pass from the draft to the death of an unprepared person. https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/topic/237244-rossiyane-nam-prinesli-voynu/?do=findComment&comment=5415620

The concern is that they will use us as cannon fodder at the front - Welt writes https://www.welt.de/investigativ/plus252252646/Ukraine-Vom-Knast-an-die-Front.html?icid=search.product.onsitesearch

Even T-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, stated that the main problems at the front are the staffing of units with motivated, well-trained personnel and the provision of modern means of radio-electronic warfare and air defense for effective combat against enemy unmanned aerial vehicles. https://unn.ua/news/syrskyi-rozpoviv-pro-naibilshi-problemy-na-fronti
Instead, unmotivated and unprepared people continue to be sent to the front.

But those who do not want to participate in this will be shot if they try to escape from the country https://24tv.ua/kordoni-rumuniyeyu-zastrelili-cholovika-29-chervnya-dpsu-skazali_n2587144

The latest russian missile attack on the military airport in Myrhorod, during which several military aircraft were destroyed, raises the question of whether the F-16s expected this year will also be destroyed. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/07/01/the-ukrainian-air-force-parked-six-su-27-fighters-in-the-open-100-miles-from-the-front-line-a-russian-missile-destroyed-two-of-them/

russian cadets sing their vows to help pootin take Alaska back from United States https://mustreadalaska.com/russian-cadets-sing-their-vows-to-help-putin-take-alaska-back-from-united-states/#:~:text=Russian%20cadets%20seen%20in%20a,for%20Russia%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin

And let's not forget that the war does not prevent russia from supplying gas to Europe through Ukraine, and it is ready to continue doing so. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/3881667-rosia-zaavila-pro-gotovnist-i-pisla-2024-roku-postacati-gaz-v-evropu-cerez-ukrainu.html

[US7IGN]

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have 14 brigades without weapons, as they have not yet arrived from Western partners. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this in an interview with Bloomberg. If you look at Zelensky's previous interview, in it he said that there are 10 understaffed brigades. Okay, it became 14. The number changed in a very short time. But he says that they do not fight because they have no weapons and equipment. And a little further he says that there are brigades that do not have soldiers. That is, some do not have weapons, so they do not fight, and others who do fight do not have soldiers.
The president also blamed our allies for revealing the plans and telling the russians where the weapons would be located. He said that partners provide weapons and say where they should go. After that, the russians send their missiles there and there are no secrets for russia.
Zelensky says that not only russians need a weak president of Ukraine, but others do as well. He did not name these others, it can be a big field for interpretation. Also, the President did not mention the Armed Forces and the courage of Ukrainians, and the entire interview is based on the fact that only the President is fighting.
The funny thing is that even in this staged interview, a prompter helps him. People criticize Biden, but at least he speaks on his own.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZJj-rCkIbw
https://hromadske.radio/podcasts/na-pulsi-analizuiemo-holovne-na-hromadskomu-radio/polityk-zelenskyy-perevazhyv-verkhovnoho-holovnokomanduvacha-ukrainy-politolohynia

The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has made changes to the Procedure for submitting applications for compensation for damages, losses or damage to the Register of Damages Caused by the russian federation's Aggression Against Ukraine, by means of the Unified State Web Portal of Electronic Services. From now on, the number of mandatory conditions for submitting an application has been reduced. In particular, the provision regarding the ownership of a damaged or destroyed object of immovable property registered in the State Register of Property Rights to immovable property is excluded. Also, they will not require the presence of an act of commission inspection of the object. https://agrotimes.ua/agromarket/sproshheno-umovy-podannya-zayav-do-reyestru-zbytkiv-zavdanyh-agresiyeyu-rf-proty-ukrayiny/

The defense-industrial complex of Ukraine launched long-range drones that hit targets in russia into mass production. General Director of Ukroboronprom Herman Smetanin said that they are capable of hitting targets at a range of more than 1,000 kilometers.
https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/ukrayina-zapustyla-serijne-vyrobnytstvo-dalekobijnyh-droniv/

The government plans to include the Bureau of Economic Security of Ukraine in the list of special users of the radio frequency spectrum. The inclusion of the BESU in the list of special users of the radio frequency spectrum will ensure the appropriate level of conspiracy in the work of the units of the Bureau, which carry out operational and investigative activities and pre-trial investigation, and will enable the relevant units of the BESU to use the special use radio frequency bands free of charge. https://biz.ligazakon.net/news/228858_uryad-proponu-vklyuchiti-beb-do-perelku-spetsalnikh-koristuvachv-radochastotnogo-spektru

The Ivano-Frankivsk mobilization center set up a checkpoint in Vorokhta in western Ukraine to check men going to the Bukovel resort. The local residents were outraged that they were scaring away tourists, and beat the soldier. As a result, the roadblock was removed. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/video-na-prykarpatti-napaly-na-post-ttsk-de-pereviryaly-turystiv-iz-bukovelya

Hungarian society now perceives Ukraine as a greater threat than russia, according to a survey by the Policy Solutions think tank published by the country’s Telex news portal on July 5.
Of all the countries surveyed in 2024, 51% of Hungarians see Ukraine as a major threat, followed by russia (46%), China (34%), and the United States (34%).
This marks a significant shift in public opinion compared to last year, when russia was considered as the greater threat, 12% ahead of Ukraine.  This change in perceptions of Ukraine is consistent across party affiliations.
The survey also found an even greater deterioration in attitudes toward Ukrainian refugees. In the spring of 2024, only 17% of respondents felt positive about Ukrainian refugees moving into their neighborhood, while 49% expressed negative feelings.
https://telex.hu/belfold/2024/07/05/policy-solutions-magyarok-vilag-kulpolitika

[US7IGN]

If I may ask, is Kate’s eye condition one of refraction needing corrective glasses (or laser surgery) rather than something more organic?

From her excellent test scores, it certainly seems likely that Kate will be admitted to the Lyceum. When will she know the decision?

As the doctors said, she has astigmatism and myopia, which need to be corrected with glasses until she reaches 21 years old. Then it will be clear what to do next because now, due to her growth, it is impossible to accurately understand the consequences of surgical intervention.

She applied to the lyceum, whose graduates include the current President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, and many other politicians and lawyers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_John_III_Sobieski_2nd_High_School_(Krak%C3%B3w)

We will find out whether she will be admitted to the lyceum next week.

[US7IGN]

Interesting article on this topic:

https://archive.ph/2024.07.01-103740/https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/russia-china-nato-axis-resistance/678831/

It's surprising that such a good analysis contains such gross errors:
But by 2022, under President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine was tackling corruption, Westernizing, and consolidating democratic rule.

Under Zelensky it became even worse than under the pro-russian Yanukovych

(the very aid that Donald Trump held up in an effort to extort political dirt from Zelensky)

In 2017 the Trump administration has approved the largest U.S. commercial sale of lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine since 2014.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/12/20/trump-administration-approves-lethal-arms-sales-to-ukraine/

It seems that this is a typical mistake of everyone who tries to analyze what is happening in other countries remoutly. I am sure that any illiterate resident of russia could tell more about how things are really there than all the combined American academics who study russia, but who have never been there.

[N0TZU]

As the doctors said, she has astigmatism and myopia, which need to be corrected with glasses until she reaches 21 years old. Then it will be clear what to do next because now, due to her growth, it is impossible to accurately understand the consequences of surgical intervention.

She applied to the lyceum, whose graduates include the current President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, and many other politicians and lawyers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_John_III_Sobieski_2nd_High_School_(Krak%C3%B3w)

We will find out whether she will be admitted to the lyceum next week.

My wife had quite bad myopia from childhood on and wore thick glasses. In the early 1990s she had laser corrective surgery when it became available. It was very costly for us then, but was the correct decision as the improvement has lasted all this time. Now such surgery can also correct astigmatism and it’s much more affordable.

[N0TZU]

I don’t understand the reasons for the concern of the Hungarians.

Is it Ukrainian immigrants taking jobs? Hungarian taxes or arms going to Ukraine? Historical rivalry? Propaganda from Orban’s government?

[N0TZU]

It's surprising that such a good analysis contains such gross errors:
But by 2022, under President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine was tackling corruption, Westernizing, and consolidating democratic rule.

Under Zelensky it became even worse than under the pro-russian Yanukovych.

I noted that too.

[US7IGN]

I don’t understand the reasons for the concern of the Hungarians.

Is it Ukrainian immigrants taking jobs? Hungarian taxes or arms going to Ukraine? Historical rivalry? Propaganda from Orban’s government?

I think it’s a matter of propaganda, but it’s better to ask the Hungarians themselves. HA2ZB was on the QRZ.COM with us, but there is no one from Hungary here.

Meanwhile, Orban is actively using the fact that Hungary is now the president of the EU and has visited China. Chinese leader Xi Jinping repeated his call for a cease-fire in Ukraine during a surprise meeting with visiting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has upset Europe with a self-styled “peace mission.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-08/hungary-s-orban-visits-china-fresh-off-meeting-with-putin