russia’s winning streak in Ukraine is over, writes CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/14/europe/russia-winning-streak-ukraine-over-intl-cmd and I agree with this conclusion. It seems that without direct military support from China, russia has no other weapons left except nuclear weapons, which it has not yet used, and they are not enough for a confident victory. On the other hand, in Ukraine it has to fight with the entire West, which supports Ukraine with its resources. It seems that russia will not dare to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, so the realization of the impossibility of victory may stop russia, since the further destruction of Ukraine and the killing of Ukrainians no longer gives it new gains.
JPMorgan Chase analysts offer their vision of how the war in Ukraine could end: "The war will be decided at the negotiating table—not the battlefield. The conflict has settled into a conditional stalemate; the frontlines have barely changed in the last two years. Military dynamics shape leverage, but the outcome will be determined by how the diplomatic, financial, and military theaters evolve together. A "Finland-like" outcome is now the most likely path. Ukraine will likely be forced to accept territorial loss and limited security assurances while preserving sovereignty and continuing its westward integration—trading a just peace for a durable one. Time and pressure favor Moscow. Ukraine faces tightening financial constraints, growing strain on Western munitions, and increasing political pressure from Washington, while russia has a longer runway and benefits from improving near-term economic conditions. These dynamics are likely to force Kyiv to accept a flawed and uneven settlement—most likely before power changes hands again in Washington and Putin loses what he may perceive to be his biggest “Trump” card."
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmorganchase/documents/center-for-geopolitics/jmpc-cfg-ukraine-report.pdfThe US position, which supports both sides, remains controversial, but is certainly focused solely on its own interests. The U.S. Treasury will extend a sanctions waiver allowing purchases of russian seaborne oil for another 30 days to aid "energy-vulnerable" countries cut off from Gulf oil supplies, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday, May 18.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-treasury-extend-sanction-waiver-russian-seaborne-oil-source-says-2026-05-18/Even more interesting is the situation with the testing of various military technologies in Ukraine. Now it seems that everyone is using Ukraine as a testing ground, which in turn can use the most modern systems provided for testing. But I do not know how the simultaneous joint use of different systems is organized at a time when Europe is trying to replace or choose its own systems instead of American ones.
Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has picked a French AI firm over the U.S. security giant Palantir, in a push to make Europe less reliant on American tech, according to German media reports.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-spy-agency-picks-france-ai-firm-over-palantir/This raises the question of how NATO will now use all these different systems of its members, since NATO used to be synonymous with standardization and unification? Perhaps after the next US elections the situation will change again. At least some processes are slowly progressing. Australia has joined the growing international effort to establish the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine as an Associate Member of the Enlarged Partial Agreement.
https://lawcouncil.au/international-law/event-resources/prosecuting-the-crime-of-aggression-establishing-the-special-tribunal-for-ukraine-at-a-critical-juncture-for-international-justiceBut no external assistance will help Ukraine if it does not begin to change from within. The situation with the former head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak, who was taken to court on suspicion of corruption, but was released after posting bail, best reveals the essence of the Ukrainian government. According to the investigation, the second person in the state used the services of a fortune teller, including during personnel appointments.
https://www.unian.ua/incidents/andriy-yermak-radivsya-z-vorozhkoyu-na-im-ya-veronika-anikiyevich-13381038.htmlAt the same time, he himself enjoyed the absolute trust of the president. The fact that the professionalism of officials was not taken into account demonstrates Yermak's choice of a lawyer who was not even able to prepare for the trial and find out that his client had never been a deputy. His statements in court about this caused surprise and laughter among those present, and Yermak himself eloquently shook his head, denying this.
People also mock his lack of preparation for the trial. Knowing about the existence of a criminal case, he not only failed to flee Ukraine, but also failed to raise money for bail in advance. This became a separate part of the show due to the companies and people who paid bail. One of them was the famous football player and head coach of the Ukrainian national football team, Serhiy Rebrov. Evil tongues say that this was a response to the fact that Yermak helped him earlier.
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-skhemy-zjasuvaly-hto-vnis-reshtu-zastavy-za-jermaka/33759331.htmlhttps://news.liga.net/en/politics/news/is-yermak-a-systemic-person-or-just-a-random-person-the-schemes-told-who-finished-off-the-bailPerhaps all this is part of a farce and the purpose of the trial is only to show the appearance of fighting corruption and distract people's attention. Time will tell what real punishment Yermak and others will suffer.
What alternative is offered to Ukrainians? The West seems to like the image of a strong hand who declares a desire to end the war through negotiations, but is ready to continue to send Ukrainians to the front by force. Kyrylo Budanov, Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, arrived at a meeting with The Times reporters carrying a holstered sidearm.
Budanov distanced himself from Yermak, who was accused of amassing untrammelled power, by saying he would run the office very differently, trusting his subordinates to fulfil their duty. “No micromanagement. Full delegation of authority to the relevant people and full responsibility of those people for the result,” he said.
https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/kyrylo-budanov-president-zelensky-right-hand-man-hgrjkdfgjIt is noteworthy that he left his deputies in their positions with all their backgrounds and did not change anything in the office policy. It seems that he is completely satisfied with the system built by his predecessor, which now works for Budanov.
No one denies his merits as a spy, but will his qualifications be enough in another way? Are Ukrainians ready to pay with their lives for his ambitions? To what extent do his values of a brave warrior coincide with the values of the majority of Ukrainians who elected a comedian as their president 7 years ago?
On May 15, Kyiv declared a day of mourning due to the most massive strike by the russian federation,
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/kievi-ogolosili-den-zhalobi-cherez-naymasovanishiy-1778765511.html and on May 16, a crowd of thousands is gathering to have fun at the Boombox concert.
https://24tv.ua/show24/bumboks-vistupiv-kiyevi-16-travnya-2026-yak-proyshov-kontsert_n3069544So, someone has army slavery until the end of their lives - and someone has a full life with concerts, summer terraces, proseks and doner kebabs in crowded pubs.
Someone can hold concerts for thousands in the open air, but the people were officially told that there will be no elections under this government precisely for this reason - it is deadly dangerous to gather en masse during a war.
So in Ukraine there are parallel worlds that do not intersect. The government and the people, the rear and the army, and everyone with everyone.
