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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Июня 10, 2026, 06:01:47 pm »

This is an interesting dynamic impacting Russia that had heretofore escaped my attention:
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/russias-chechnya-problem/?tpa=ZjQwYWZkOTdlOTgzYjEzMGNkMDQ1NjE3ODE3OTgxODBhMGQ4YTc&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Fgeopoliticalfutures.com%2Frussias-chechnya-problem%2F%3Ftpa%3DZjQwYWZkOTdlOTgzYjEzMGNkMDQ1NjE3ODE3OTgxODBhMGQ4YTc&utm_content&utm_campaign=PAID%20-%20Everything%20as%20it%27s%20published

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Июня 10, 2026, 01:32:28 am »

I had not heard reports that Z's letter to P had contained denigrating passages - no mention of that in US reports, at least none that I've seen. Hardly the way to make peace overtures!

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Мая 25, 2026, 12:26:19 am »

I heard about the attack. So glad to hear you were unhurt!
Putin's getting desperate to appear strong, for negotiation purposes, I assume.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Марта 13, 2026, 09:42:42 pm »

I tend not to be a cynical person, but I must admit that the first thing I thought of when I read about the potential 8 year sentence of the people who stopped the mobilization kidnappers: At least they will be in a relatively safe place (prison) rather than facing certain death at the eastern front!

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Января 26, 2026, 01:27:50 am »

https://youtu.be/qh3TEv_7GYI?si=C-aoaw8aThrMVHNK

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Января 12, 2026, 08:28:27 pm »

Bob, I had missed your early January message in reply to mine on political comments; my apologies. Both of us being Americans, yes I would think that we would find much to be in agreement on. Obviously I voted for Trump and you did not, but I'm sure you weren't happy with everything that Harris represented and said, just as I object to many things that Trump does and says (although on major policies, I agree with him, or I would have voted differently). Just this morning I was quite frustrated with his DOJ's legal attack on Jerome Powell, done for rather obvious reasons, as the latest example. But I would have been much more frustrated with a President Harris, I suspect. All I can say is, we don't get very good choices as voters!


Wlad, what you said about not hiring PTSD sufferers as law enforcement strikes me as being a very good point. I think the person who was shot in Minneapolis should have known that interfering with law enforcement is, by its nature, a high-risk pastime. But, seeing as how the policeman probably was traumatized by having a near-death experience with a criminal using an automobile only six months ago, in combination with his previous wartime experience, made the situation even more volatile. Setting aside who's to blame, the whole thing is a terrible tragedy.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Января 09, 2026, 11:37:28 pm »

Everyone has been watching the power outage in Berlin caused by a leftwing enviro-nut group, and how much suffering it has caused. Then I think of how it must be to have dealt with this and worse things for the past almost four years! Our prayers are with you and your family, Wlad.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Декабря 31, 2025, 10:41:44 pm »

This is the statement that sums it all up for me:

"In my opinion, russia has no reason to stop now. It is not its residents who are having blackouts and hunting people on the streets, it is not its cities that are surrounded and suffering from bombings, it is not its president who is traveling around the world begging for money in debt."

So obvious to someone who is living there, but I'd bet there is not one person in a hundred living here, who is thinking that way. Maybe military personnel, but not average citizens!

Bob, as far as US politics... you can discuss US politics or anything else at will, of course. Don't worry about offending me; I do lean conservative but also recognize that others have their own opinions. I think independently and when Trump says something needlessly offensive, as he often does, I say so (perhaps not here where it's off-topic, but nevertheless... I say so). I also admit that for the most part, I agree with his goals as he tries to correct many problems that have just been kicked down the road from president to president over the years. In such a situation, mistakes are inevitable, or as my brother told me decades ago, "the only person who doesn't make mistakes is the person who doesn't try to change anything." As I've said in the past, my opinion is that US politics don't belong here, particularly just partisan talking points like "Trump loves Putin" or other such things spouted by the DNC and their cronies in the press. That is why during the Biden years, I don't think I ever complained about him here - it was just off-topic for the most part, regarding Ukraine. But again, that is just my opinion and anyone who wants to vent or say anything on any relevant topic, I can read it without fogging up.

Since it is upon us, I wish you all a very happy New Year - gosh I hope the war ends this year!!!

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Декабря 28, 2025, 08:48:46 pm »

Back to the subject of Ukraine for a moment, Wlad I was happy to read that you were not hurt by the Kyiv assault on the 27th. I was concerned when I saw the reports. My view is that Russia is trying an all-in, total war approach to bolster their negotiating position. It will probably work, unfortunately, since Ukraine is constrained from using high tech weapons offensively. And, I haven't seen the Europeans or Americans (of either party) even suggest changing that policy and allowing Ukraine to do anything offensively with western weapons that would strike fear into the heart of Putin.
History shows that there's no appeasing dictators who are militaristic, and appeasing in fact only makes their goals more expansionist. Uncomfortable as it may be,  there won't be peace without the west taking some risks.
Here's to a better 2026.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Декабря 26, 2025, 04:23:40 pm »

Glad to hear that your Christmas is being spent with family! Congratulations to Kate (and you) for obtaining her amateur radio license!

The rest of the news is not so encouraging, but with God all things are possible.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Декабря 24, 2025, 09:21:15 pm »

The Politico article is interesting, but unsurprising in what it reveals. As we've previously discussed here, it's a shame that Europe is so beset with cultural and governance issues that that they can't even agree that Russia should forfeit its assets - all it would take is for the French, the UK, and Germany to commit to help shoulder any liabilities that Belgium may incur in the courts by releasing frozen assets to Ukraine - but they won't step up.

The Europeans and the UK are so weak and pusillanimous that they have to leave the negotiations to the US, whose stake in the outcome of the war is far and away less consequential than Europe's. How frustrating. 

Having said that, even if the Europeans had provided $300 billion of frozen assets to Ukraine, it would not cause our side to win the war, it would only enable Z to keep tossing bodies at Russia. To win, Europe would have to take the risk of enraging Russia by allowing Ukraine to start using sophisticated weapons on Russian territory. BUT the EU won't even accept the financial risk that Russia will prevail in the courts regarding frozen assets, so what are the odds that they'll risk angering Russia militarily? Zero, in my view.

I wish the news were better, nevertheless I want to wish you all the happiest Christmas that you can possibly have!

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Декабря 20, 2025, 11:46:46 pm »

I watched Donald Tusk make the "money now or blood later" statement two nights ago during my nightly European news viewing on DW. It was a very memorable statement! Reminded me of Churchill saying to Neville Chamberlain, " between war and dishonor you have chosen dishonor - and you will have war."

Wlad, I sent the completed manuscript a week ago, did you receive it?

Best regards and merry Christmas to you all.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Декабря 18, 2025, 09:32:08 pm »

Hello Bob. I "get" the high cost of nuclear weapons and agree with you on that. I suppose the financial analyst that I once was, and still have elements of  always compares it to the cost of alternatives and their effectiveness. To me, the "cost" of an entire country being rubble-ized by Russia (as Ukraine is experiencing presently) makes the cost of not developing a truly formidable deterrent force very, very costly - almost incalculably expensive, in fact. I think we agree on that, the only question is whether a conventional force is the better option, or a nuclear one. Pakistan, being half the size of Israel in the measure that counts (GDP) has taken (and somehow afforded) the nuclear option AND the conventional one, something that probably any country would have to do... after all, you don't respond to a small conventional incursion by launching a nuke! And Russia is very good at brinksmanship, evidenced by the drones appearing over the western European airports in past months, the drones flying just barely into Poland, moving the boundary markers in Georgia and the Baltic states, and so on. They are jerks, and it shows.

Obviously I don't know the answer to this conundrum of having to deflect an evil empire wannabe like Russia, and also making it practical and affordable. I'm not a military guy. But something tells me that the solution has to involve outside the box thinking, which the Europeans are particularly bad at, and made worse by their unworkable EU compact... can you imagine a system where it only takes one US state to veto legislation? We would literally get nothing accomplished., and that's the EU situation in a nutshell. They can't even agree to use (or how to use) impounded Russian assets to bolster Ukraine. It's crazy!! Bottom line: if the Baltic states are counting on the EU to protect them, they're in big trouble.

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Декабря 17, 2025, 06:54:27 pm »

Hi Bob - yes I agree that those are the "$64,000 questions" about the idea of creating a nuclear firewall around Russia. To work, there would have to be a delivery system that could stand at least a plausible chance (25%? 15%?) of getting through to someplace that Russia would not be willing to sacrifice, such as Moscow or perhaps even St Petersburg. A plausible choice of getting through without being intercepted, that is.

I know it sounds like a crazy idea, but what's the alternative, really, when you are a small nation in the shadow of a totally untrustworthy, expansionist, militaristic regime, that doesn't value its own citizens any more than Stalin did? An all-Europe conventional force could possibly work, but I don't think the Europeans are capable of uniting to the degree that would be required, or sacrificing any of their generous social benefits for the sake of defending the former Soviet Bloc - something that would certainly be required. 

So far at least, there is no situation I know of where a country has invaded a nuclear armed state. There can be a first time for anything, but the evidence so far is that it's a good deterrent for aggression. I concede that the chances of this being adopted are close to zero, though.

I definitely don't trust any honoring of the "security guarantees" that the Europeans are proposing as a peace settlement - unless they agreed to ironclad commitments to actually station European fighting troops near the eastern border of Ukraine - and I don't think Putin would agree to that anyway - do you?

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Основной раздел / Re: Ukraine updates in English

« : Декабря 16, 2025, 05:08:20 pm »

Here's an interesting article I read this morning. I admit that the Black Sea is a geographic feature that I haven't paid much attention to, up to this point:

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/russias-escalation-in-the-black-sea-has-turkey-on-edge/?tpa=YmZmMGVkZWRmZTBmNTA5MDA5NGMzODE3NjY2NzgwMjNmODY2ZDk&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Fgeopoliticalfutures.com%2Frussias-escalation-in-the-black-sea-has-turkey-on-edge%2F%3Ftpa%3DYmZmMGVkZWRmZTBmNTA5MDA5NGMzODE3NjY2NzgwMjNmODY2ZDk&utm_content&utm_campaign=PAID%20-%20Everything%20as%20it%27s%20published

Erdogan may be getting the unforeseen consequences of his trying to keep one foot in the Russian camp, and one foot in the NATO camp? Or perhaps he's known, all along, what a tenuous balancing act he is forced into by geography?