Ukraine updates in English

[UT7UX]

Many Ukrainians are used to think only Democrats are going to help us while Republicans would likely not. Especially Trump, according to his pretty unclear and somewhat disputable statements about Ukraine, appears unfriendly. So, Ukraine in fact supports Democrats with likely no clear understanding why we should to. Same time I believe Republicans did more for the democracy in the US and all around the world than Democrats. I'm not a politic expert and never pretended. I can only judge on anti-weapon hysteria that is widely supported by Democrats but opposed by Republicans, so I'd chose Republicans just to preserve the right of people to keep and bear arms. Ukrainian officials should make friends among both parties, Democrats and Republicans. For us it should not matter who will win.

[N0TZU]

Many Ukrainians are used to think only Democrats are going to help us while Republicans would likely not. Especially Trump, according to his pretty unclear and somewhat disputable statements about Ukraine, appears unfriendly. So, Ukraine in fact supports Democrats with likely no clear understanding why we should to. Same time I believe Republicans did more for the democracy in the US and all around the world than Democrats. I'm not a politic expert and never pretended. I can only judge on anti-weapon hysteria that is widely supported by Democrats but opposed by Republicans, so I'd chose Republicans just to preserve the right of people to keep and bear arms. Ukrainian officials should make friends among both parties, Democrats and Republicans. For us it should not matter who will win.

I agree, it would be foolish not to maintain good relations with both. Both are needed for effective support in Congress, and besides attitudes can change.

Traditionally both parties have been supportive of America’s post WW2 superpower role in the world, and Atlantic and Pacific alliances, for our own interests which includes reasonable world stability. Of course there have always been obnoxiously loud but small minorities that didn’t - pacifist but worldly on the left, while well armed but isolationist on the right.

Over the last 25 years or so this has been changing, especially in the last 10-15. In my view the right has become far more isolationist, while the left has become only marginally more pacifist. These are naturally generalizations and specific instances can be quite different for various reasons. For example, Obama (Democrat) didn’t do anything effective when Putin started taking Ukrainian territory.

[US7IGN]

The workload at work plus sleepless nights led to the fact that last night I had a severe headache and I realized that I would not be able to finish reading the financial analysis for one of the projects. Although I am a lawyer, my new position implies deep immersion and the need to understand the project as a whole. Fortunately, I cooperate with high-class professionals and this allows me to rapidly improve my own qualifications and expand my awareness in related areas - economics, accounting and finance. But for me it is also exciting and interesting, like for a child learning new toys. I again catch myself thinking that I not only get free knowledge for which people pay big money at universities and business schools, but also get a salary. I came to the conclusion that my knowledge in finance and economics has long exceeded that of my wife, although she is an economist by education. But when my blood pressure jumped again in the evening, I decided to stop and went to bed early, only to wake up at half past two from the sounds of shooting at drones.

I woke up this morning feeling hungover, even though I hadn't been drinking, and in the mirror I saw that I looked like Zelensky. This gave me extra motivation to kick myself in the ass, get on my bike and go for a ride while the weather allowed. It was still sunny and about +20C during the day. After the ride and shower I felt better, but still tired.

However, I finished the analysis in the morning and sent it back with comments. I can't fully rest if something remains unfinished. God gives me strength and opportunities every day and it's time to thank Him again for this!

Last week I got an email from Volodymyr UT5WAA saying he was talking to some guys from the UK and Canada who were learning Morse Code together and they had read my book and wanted to talk to me. I joined their zoom meeting on Thursday evening and we talked for an hour and a half. It was great and I hope to see them again. When Randy N1SP joined in the middle of the meeting I knew it all. They were members of the CW Academy where I had also taken a course last year.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

I really got a chuckle out of this! Glad to see that you're enjoying your work, learning, and earning!

"I woke up this morning feeling hungover, even though I hadn't been drinking, and in the mirror I saw that I looked like Zelensky. This gave me extra motivation to kick myself in the ass, get on my bike and go for a ride..."

[US7IGN]

Thank you Braden!

Unfortunately, my personal achievements do not reflect the situation in the country as a whole.

The initiative of the European Commission to allocate to Ukraine a new loan from the European Union in the amount of 35 billion euros (almost $40 billion), which will be repaid at the expense of revenues from frozen Russian assets, was not supported by a number of key EU countries. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/us-eu-near-deal-on-50-billion-ukraine-aid-using-russian-assets

Switzerland supported the "peace initiative" proposed by China and Brazil regarding Ukraine, despite the fact that there is no mention of the UN Charter and no direct mention of territorial integrity in the document. https://www.blick.ch/politik/obwohl-verweis-auf-die-uno-charta-fehlt-schweiz-unterstuetzt-ukraine-initiative-von-china-und-brasilien-id20178433.html

I read a long and interesting interview with the head of the largest private arms manufacturer, who named almost all the problems due to which Ukraine does not produce more weapons needed by the military. And I am not surprised that all the problems except purely technical ones in the production of gunpowder are created by the state. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cy0lyzezd24o

Meanwhile, the Netherlands has officially announced that it has decommissioned its F-16 fighter jets, replacing them with F-35s, the Dutch Ministry of Defense said. https://twitter.com/DefensieMin/status/1839689145280500024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1839689145280500024%7Ctwgr%5Ef3964f4ad97e2ad39c74d280d039663381e241ad%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.eurointegration.com.ua%2Fnews%2F2024%2F09%2F28%2F7195093%2F

More than half of infantry recruits of the Armed Forces of Ukraine die or are injured in the first days, FT writes https://www.ft.com/content/b9396112-585a-4f7e-9628-13d500c99d93 These people are not highly motivated, psychologically and physically unprepared - and as a result die at an alarming rate. Ukrainian infantry suffers the most. Some soldiers simply leave their positions, allowing the enemy to capture more territory. Four commanders, a deputy commander and almost a dozen soldiers from four Ukrainian brigades in Donetsk region said that the recruits lacked basic combat skills and motivation.

High-ranking Ukrainian officials said that since May, Ukraine has been mobilizing 30,000 soldiers per month. Age is a key issue in the Armed Forces, as the average figure is 45 years. Of about 30 infantrymen in the unit, the deputy commander of the 72nd Brigade said, half were in their 40s, only five were under 30, and the rest were over 50. Infantry need to run fast and be strong enough to carry heavy weapons, which is hard to do when you're old.

In addition, the Ukrainian army is led by officers and generals who began their careers in Soviet times and "never took part in hostilities."

Instead, the mobilized convicts turned out to be good soldiers - they demonstrate self-sacrifice and the ability to adapt in the combat zone.

I am not surprised by this, because even authoritarian russia quickly abandoned forced mobilization due to its ineffectiveness. Apparently, fighting is all the russians know how to do.

There is a debate in society about why they don't mobilize young people aged 18-25, as all other countries usually do in case of war. Some believe that this is Zelensky's main electorate, which he is guarding before the elections. I am inclined to think that the main reason is the understanding of the authorities that, unlike docile elderly people, brought up in the Soviet Union and accustomed to feudal collective farms and the Soviet army, for young people who do not want to follow even an office work regime, service in the army will be unacceptable. The authorities did everything to limit the ravages of war to those who directly fight, so the rest of society has long since felt no connection to war and has no motivation to fight. In this, the situation is similar to 2014.

On the other hand, people's reaction to the loss of a father or brother is completely different than to the death of a son. Perhaps the answer to the question of why people from 18 to 25 are not drafted is somewhere in the middle.

[US7IGN]

Today was a quiet night, I rested and it's only sad that I have a day off and great weather, but no opportunity to spend it with my family, for example, by going to the forest. And I don't know who is more to blame for this - the russians or my own authorities. It seems that people are increasingly getting used to this kind of life. Someone is saving money to buy the opportunity to leave the country, and most have simply adapted. Fortunately, Ukrainians are a very peace-loving people and even a large number of weapons did not lead to a desire to show superiority or solve problems with their help in everyday life.

Today I even spent the time with the radio and had not only a QSO with Colin G3ZAF and his neighbor Jeff G8XXJ, but also when trying to hear Dave KB9YYM, when I called on 28 MHz, I was answered from Indonesia and made QSO with Marselino YD1SHY and Theo YD1SEO.

[US7IGN]

Today again drones were shot down all night and I read that in September the russians launched more than a thousand drones at Ukraine, not counting missiles, and there was not a single day without drones.

Western media headlines repeat each other:

As things stand, a truce would embolden pootin, weaken Ukraine and lead to further hostilities. The West needs a better plan. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-09-30/ukraine-cease-fire-will-benefit-putin-not-end-the-war

The war is going badly. Ukraine and its allies must change course.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/09/26/the-war-is-going-badly-ukraine-and-its-allies-must-change-course

But the more interesting rumors are that they are going to replace Budanov, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, with whom almost all successful operations in Russian and occupied territories are connected. In my opinion, the strategic choice of the development of the war was made when Zaluzhny was replaced by Syrsky. Instead of really effective strikes against russia, which Budanov could have done, the army was put in the hands of a general who implemented a war of a small Soviet army against a large Soviet army with a known result. Given the frank reluctance of the West to escalate, now all this is easy to explain and all previous actions add up to a picture of what we see today.

[US7IGN]

Today they gave up Ugledar. By a strange coincidence, this was also preceded by the dismissal of the brigade commander, who held this small city at a strategic height for 2.5 years. I would not be surprised if this commander will also be persecuted like many others who fought too well.

However, coaches do not just replace players for no reason. The new head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiga during a trip to the USA discussed potential compromise solutions and was more pragmatic about the possibility of negotiations based on the principle of "land in exchange for security". "We are talking more openly about how it will end and what Ukraine will have to give up in order to get a permanent peace agreement," said a diplomat who was present in New York. According to him, even half a year ago such conversations were taboo. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cvglv99xkero

The government also replaced three deputy Ministers of Defense.
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-kabmin-zastupnyky-zvilniv-pryznachyv/33142125.html

Against the background of the rapid escalation in the Middle East and the shelling of Israel by Iran, Ukraine's position looks deplorable.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Sadly, I agree that other conflicts such as Iran/Israel are probably going to steal headlines and western resources from Ukraine for the foreseeable future, and so I also reluctantly concede to the likelihood of land for peace. I only hope that any peace deal has some ironclad western military commitment in it, to prevent future Russian land-grabs.
Without those guarantees, I can't imagine why anyone would invest their life's efforts into Ukraine, never knowing when Russia is going to turn it into rubble again. If the west hopes to keep Ukraine from becoming depopulated, they'd better make military protection of whatever remains of Ukraine a non-negotiable priority. And of course, prevent ethnic Russians from emigrating to Ukraine, ever again.

[US7IGN]

Yesterday it started raining and together with the workload it has meant that I am again forced to lower my blood pressure with tablets. I am hoping to have a rest this weekend and recover for next week. I got home on Friday after several meetings and a hard day after 9pm. I could only eat and go to bed, but HR sent a lawyer candidate's resume at 11:08pm. On the one hand we do need more people, but we live in the same country and I can't explain it away as a time difference and a simple mistake. It could have waited until Monday. I responded rudely and apologized this morning. My head was still hurting this morning and it only got better after I talked to Colin for over an hour and then sat in front of the radio, completely switched off.

Drone attacks and the noise from air defenses almost every night make things worse. https://vechirniy.kyiv.ua/news/103408/

Today Colin was visiting his son, where he is making an antenna so that they can communicate by radio if necessary. This again reminded me that I have not seen my son for almost three years. It is even more disgusting to see the latest news about the arrest of those who receive millions of dollars in bribes to exempt healthy people from conscription and send sick people who refuse to pay to the army. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/czxgp858rv9o One can only imagine how many more of these are left and that in fact the reason for the arrest of these is not the zeal of law enforcement agencies, but the greed of some corrupt officials who do not share with the leadership. And this again strengthened my mind that I will not give these assholes a penny.

[US7IGN]

Zelensky raises his tone against the West. Ukraine wants to "convince" its Western allies to "shoot down the russian missiles and drones" that are targeting it, despite their reluctance, declared President Volodymyr Zelensky while receiving the new NATO chief in Kyiv. https://www.lexpress.fr/monde/guerre-en-ukraine-zelensky-hausse-le-ton-face-aux-occidentaux-HTCLATUYWJBB3K7NT7VRZ5G7FU/

NATO will not intercept missiles and drones over Ukraine the way it does over Israel, because these are "two very different landscapes and battlefields" and that would "draw us into a war," Pentagon deputy spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said at a briefing. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3926224/deputy-pentagon-press-secretary-sabrina-singh-holds-a-press-briefing/

"Ukraine is moving towards what could be the darkest moment of the conflict. It is being defeated on the battlefield in the east of the country, and russian troops are advancing relentlessly, albeit with huge losses in people and equipment," writes The Financial Times. Conscription tactics get dirty as war-weary Ukrainians defy draft. Under pressure to mobilise 200,000 extra soldiers, Ukraine army recruiters are resorting to checkpoints, bundling men off the street and ignoring exemptions. https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/conscription-tactics-get-dirty-as-war-weary-ukrainians-defy-draft-8zb26rt2p

Allies begin new phase of pressure on Ukraine to negotiate end of war. The diminishing support for Zelensky on his trip to the US confirms the change of tone among his partners in favour of negotiations with russia, writes the Spanish El País. During the last visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the USA, support from partners became noticeably weaker. Although Ukraine will continue to receive financial assistance from Washington, the United States has already not given permission to use long-range missiles for strikes on russian territory.

According to El País, russian offensive operations in Donbas, which have been ongoing since the summer, cannot be stopped by Ukrainian forces. To resolve this situation, Ukraine will need significantly more military aid than it has received so far. However, against this background, the attention of Western countries is diverted to other international crises, in particular the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran.https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-10-04/los-aliados-inician-una-nueva-fase-de-presion-sobre-ucrania-para-negociar-el-final-de-la-guerra.html

The Financial Times also wrote about possible security guarantees for Ukraine in exchange for the occupied territories. https://www.ft.com/content/2bb20587-9680-40f0-ac2d-5e7312486c75

The President's Office said that this is a delusion. Such conversations do not take place. It was noted that no one in the West officially and clearly offered our state such security guarantees that would definitely prevent the expansion or recurrence of the war. The Office of the President also emphasized that Ukraine does not trade sovereignty and territories. https://informator.ua/uk/zdacha-teritoriy-v-obmin-na-mir-mzs-ukrajini-zvinuvatilo-financial-times-u-brehni

Well, from previous experience, everything that the authorities denied was confirmed over time. The denial of the attack of russia 2022 is especially vividly remembered.

Throughout the year, Ukraine has lost a series of cities, towns and villages in its eastern Donbas region to russia, typically withdrawing its troops after hard-fought battles that sometimes lasted for months. The idea is to use rope-a-dope tactics, letting russian forces pound away until they have exhausted themselves. It’s far from clear if the Ukrainian strategy will succeed. Ukraine ultimately hopes that russia’s mounting losses will make the war unsustainable for the Kremlin before it becomes so for Kyiv. “This is the most important thing — to exhaust the enemy,” said President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

But how realistic is this strategy? President pootin of russia has put his country’s economy on war footing and has shown no sign that he is prepared to quit the fight. And the russian people seem steadfast in their support of the war effort. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/05/world/europe/ukraine-donbas-strategy-russia-war.html

But it should not be forgotten that the Verkhovna Rada, at an extraordinary meeting on September 8, 2021, did not support the appeal to the US Congress to grant Ukraine the bilateral status of the main ally of the US outside NATO (MNNA). The purpose and task of adopting the resolution is, in accordance with international legal guarantees, to engage the mechanisms of strategic security guarantees to ensure the territorial integrity of the state and receive appropriate international military assistance. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-rada-golosuvannya-za-mnna/31449924.html

So, before once again accusing the West of unwillingness to participate in stopping the war, it is necessary to remember how the Ukrainian authorities did not prevent it.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Zelensky should know,  without asking, that the west is not going to shoot down missiles, Iron-dome style: Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, do not have a nuclear arsenal and the means to deliver it, Russia does. That Zelensky even asks this question gives him away as either being desperate or naive. I suspect the former.

[US7IGN]

I think I wrote about this a year ago. Zelensky has a very simple position - the West should provide weapons and money, and the Ukrainians should fight. If they stop doing this, then he has the opportunity to place the blame and responsibility for the defeat on them. As we can see, this simple strategy allowed him to remain president even after his powers had long since ended.

However, we do not know about his (and those who stand behind him) their real intentions. I tend to judge by the result. The result is obvious.

Some Polish politicians again raised the issue of exhuming the bodies of Poles who died during the Volyn tragedy. The Minister of National Defense of Poland, Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh, stated that without solving the issue of the Volyn tragedy, Ukraine will not be able to join the European Union. Meanwhile, President Andrzej Duda criticized such statements, which, in his opinion, "go in the direction of Vladimir pootin's politics."

During the Second World War, under the conditions of German occupation, several partisan movements were active on the territory of Ukraine. These, in particular, were units of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UIA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army) and the Polish Home Army https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Army. They mostly fought in Volyn region.

At the same time, both sides carried out mutual ethnic cleansing, justifying it as revenge for the repressions of the past years and the current murders. According to the Institute of History of Ukraine, this was one of the bloodiest episodes of the Ukrainian-Polish conflict during the Second World War.

According to Polish estimates, at least 35,000 people died during this tragedy on the Polish side, of which 18,000 were identified, and up to several thousand people died on the Ukrainian side. At the same time, according to the Ukrainian Catholic University project, from 9 to 10 thousand people died on the Ukrainian side. https://hromadske.ua/suspilstvo/232341-ukrayinskyy-instytut-natspamiati-ne-otrymuvav-vid-polshchi-ofitsiynykh-zvernen-shchodo-ekshumatsiyi-zertv-volynskoyi-trahediyi?traffic_source=ukr.net

My grandfather said that only because he was warned that the UIA fighters wanted to kill him, he escaped and avoided death.

Until now, the Ukrainian authorities have not expressed a clear position on this issue, and many people do not understand what the problem is in allowing the Poles to take the bodies of their dead. Some assume that there is a threat that the Poles will later accuse Ukraine of genocide and demand large reparations.

I came across an interesting opinion of one of Ukraine's best bankers, Serhiy Tihipko, regarding the deficit of the state budget of Ukraine this year in the amount of 12 billion dollars, due to which the Verkhovna Rada plans to significantly increase taxes by 1.4 billion dollars in the current year and 3.2 billion dollars in the next. He asks how it was possible to "lose" these huge numbers, despite the fact that the planned indicators of the 2024 budget were exceeded (according to the Ministry of Finance, in eight months, taxpayers filled the budget with an overperformance of $1.8 billion). https://forbes.ua/money/derzhava-shcho-postiyno-zminyue-pravila-gri-nenadiyniy-partner-sergiy-tigipko-pro-sim-rizikiv-pidnyattya-podatkiv-pid-chas-viyni-02102024-23965

I don't understand how even the planned revenues of 1.4 billion dollars in the current year and 3.2 billion dollars in the next year compensate for the deficit of 12 billion dollars already this year? In any case, the possible short-term effect carries the following strategic risks:
- Acceleration of inflationary processes as a result of excessive tax pressure, as businesses will try to offset their costs by raising the prices of services and goods. In addition, an almost simultaneous increase in taxes and tariffs can cause a sharp rise in prices, which will primarily affect the most vulnerable sections of the population.
- Deterioration of the investment climate and increasing mistrust of the decision-making centers and economic policy of the state.
- Further darkening of the economy and growth of capital outflow.
- Excessive fiscal pressure aimed at the most transparent sector - the financial sector - will cause a drop in its competitiveness and encourage long-forgotten gray tax avoidance schemes.
- The decision to increase taxes, including an increase in the military levy from 1.5% to 5%, will hurt deposits and slow down their withdrawals. The depositor will have to pay 23% of taxes to the budget from the interest earned on deposits. And this is on funds that have already been taxed.
- Decrease in the investment potential of the financial sector.
- Unpredictability of economic policy destroys business planning processes.

[US7IGN]

It's been raining for the third day, drones again at night and supersonic missiles added in the morning. Fortunately, there are no significant damages or casualties in Kyiv. I didn't get enough sleep, but it was quiet at work today, so overall it can be considered a good day.

[N0TZU]

Zelensky should know,  without asking, that the west is not going to shoot down missiles, Iron-dome style: Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, do not have a nuclear arsenal and the means to deliver it, Russia does. That Zelensky even asks this question gives him away as either being desperate or naive. I suspect the former.

Yep.