Ukraine updates in English

[KD8ZM-Brady]

"bluesky": Do you have a point to make about that?

[N0TZU]

Trump has malignant narcissist personality disorder. His statements and actions regarding Ukraine are therefore not surprising.

He never forgets a slight, and always seeks to punish any disobedience or disrespect. He has not forgotten that Zelensky ignored his request to find dirt on the Biden family. Zelensky’s rather gentle recent statement about Trump being in a web of disinformation, in the face of Trump blaming Ukraine for the war and the imminent “peace” process without Ukrainian participation, has clearly enraged Trump who will be even more determined to punish Ukraine.

Russia will be given almost everything it wants in the “peace” process, as is clear from  Trump and Vance statements. Putin, understanding Trump’s psychology and seizing the day, may audaciously ask for even more, perhaps a reversal of NATO membership for Finland and Sweden. Putin will rearm and attack Ukraine again during Trump’s term in office knowing that he will do nothing to stop it. He may even try attacking a small, weak NATO member.

Trump has long wanted to build a hotel and other projects in Moscow. Don’t be surprised if that is announced sometime after the Ukraine “peace” process is concluded.

Trump admires Putin, and dictators and authoritarians of all types, because he aspires to be one. His damaged, fragile ego would then have the ultimate satisfaction of being a king. Among his flurry of many illegal executive orders, he recently revoked federal approval for NYC traffic congestion pricing and declared on X that "CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD. Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!" This is not merely rhetoric, it’s a glimpse of the real Donald Trump. He recently declared on Truth Social that "He who saves his Country does not violate any Law," echoing Napoleon.

On this side of the pond, I fully expect Trump to cause a devastating constitutional crisis by ignoring high US court orders as they inevitably rule against many of his executive orders (and we are only one month into his term). A similar kingly sentiment was posted on X by VP Vance (who holds a Juris Doctor from Yale) who said “Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive branch’s legitimate power”. Besides being abhorrent, it’s factually incorrect and ignores the separation of powers in the US constitution, which gives the co-equal judicial branch sole authority to interpret the constitution and decide the law, and elevates the executive branch above all others. Later on a trip to Europe, Vance had the gall to criticize and lecture Europeans about democracy.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Bob, I agree with you about Trump's personality, he is a very flawed man in many ways. Taken as a whole in terms of policies, I would still vote for him rather than Harris, if the election were today rather than in November. There are a lot of things that have contributed to the situation in Ukraine being what it is, and only a few of them can be attributed to Trump. I am still hopeful that the war will be ended and there will be a lasting peace with European peacekeepers. Part of that depends on Trump, but more of it depends on whether Europe is willing to step into the role of providing troops. Trump is in a constitutionally-limited office and I'm not worried about his becoming a dictator, even if he wants to.
I'm sure you don't agree with much of what I've said, but I also don't think we want this forum to become being about US politics, rather than about Ukraine.

[N0TZU]

Hi Brady, don’t worry - I do not intend to divert this forum to US domestic issues. However, sometimes our domestic issues are very relevant to Ukraine and my comments above are offered in that context.

[US7IGN]

Hello Wlad, and my other friends. To your quote from The Hill, I would respond: As shocking as yesterday's Trump statements were, the one thing I did concede to Trump is that his assessment of Z. and what Z. is doing, is very similar to what I have read here on this forum, about Z. While I understand that during a war of survival, certain rights may need to be suspended, one of those things is not elections. During the US's civil war, elections were held in which Lincoln was re-elected - this despite the fact that a third to a half of US states could not participate.
I can't say that Z wants to be a dictator, but he seems to be acting as one, as a practical matter.

That said, Trump should be much more careful how he expresses himself. To say that Russia was demanding security guarantees against NATO encroachment prior to the invasion, that were ignored by the West, is one thing. (I believe that is probably what he was referring to). To characterize ignoring those demands as "starting the war," is a totally different thing, and comes off as an outright mischaracterization, of Russian proportions.

Although most of us have known that Ukraine isn't likely to regain the eastern districts now occupied by Russia, it was stupid of Hegseth to concede this prior to negotiations, and stupid of Trump to not keep Hegseth on a short leash until he could be told what not to say.

On the positive side (in my opinion), freezing the Europeans out of the negotiations seems to have gotten them talking about raising their commitments of peacekeeping forces and defense spending, so they can appear relevant again, and buy their way to the negotiating table. They are far behind the curve in taking care of their own continent, as usual.

We sure live in interesting times.

These are really interesting times. Unfortunately or fortunately, I am so absorbed in my work that I do not have time to focus on what is happening in the world. Although I understand what great opportunities all these changes bring.

I do not consider Zelensky a dictator, if only because he has no real power. He continues to play the president, even if he sincerely believes in what he says and does. In any case, I would not want to be in his place and he cannot help but understand the situation he has found himself in. I wonder if he will be able to escape like Yanukovych, Assad or Ghani, or will he play the victim to the end and end up like Gaddafi or Hussein.

One of the advantages of democracy and elections is the ability to leave in time with virtually no consequences or responsibility for your actions.

I have the impression that Trump often quite sincerely says what he really thinks. And this is something that needs to be taken into account. For example, he has long warned Europe about his intentions.

[US7IGN]

Trump has malignant narcissist personality disorder. His statements and actions regarding Ukraine are therefore not surprising.

He never forgets a slight, and always seeks to punish any disobedience or disrespect. He has not forgotten that Zelensky ignored his request to find dirt on the Biden family. Zelensky’s rather gentle recent statement about Trump being in a web of disinformation, in the face of Trump blaming Ukraine for the war and the imminent “peace” process without Ukrainian participation, has clearly enraged Trump who will be even more determined to punish Ukraine.

Obviously, this is just a pretext, but the consequences will follow for the whole country, and not just Zelensky. And this is another good lesson that will not be learned by Ukrainians who do not realize their responsibility for their choice and support of Zelensky and the oligarchs.

Russia will be given almost everything it wants in the “peace” process, as is clear from  Trump and Vance statements. Putin, understanding Trump’s psychology and seizing the day, may audaciously ask for even more, perhaps a reversal of NATO membership for Finland and Sweden. Putin will rearm and attack Ukraine again during Trump’s term in office knowing that he will do nothing to stop it. He may even try attacking a small, weak NATO member.

Trump has long wanted to build a hotel and other projects in Moscow. Don’t be surprised if that is announced sometime after the Ukraine “peace” process is concluded.

Trump admires Putin, and dictators and authoritarians of all types, because he aspires to be one. His damaged, fragile ego would then have the ultimate satisfaction of being a king. Among his flurry of many illegal executive orders, he recently revoked federal approval for NYC traffic congestion pricing and declared on X that "CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD. Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!" This is not merely rhetoric, it’s a glimpse of the real Donald Trump. He recently declared on Truth Social that "He who saves his Country does not violate any Law," echoing Napoleon.

On this side of the pond, I fully expect Trump to cause a devastating constitutional crisis by ignoring high US court orders as they inevitably rule against many of his executive orders (and we are only one month into his term). A similar kingly sentiment was posted on X by VP Vance (who holds a Juris Doctor from Yale) who said “Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive branch’s legitimate power”. Besides being abhorrent, it’s factually incorrect and ignores the separation of powers in the US constitution, which gives the co-equal judicial branch sole authority to interpret the constitution and decide the law, and elevates the executive branch above all others. Later on a trip to Europe, Vance had the gall to criticize and lecture Europeans about democracy.

Both Trump and Putin are old people and represent an old era. They launched the processes of a new world order, but we will see what it will be like much later. But we must admit that old alliances and rules no longer work in the new conditions. This is the natural dynamics of the development of international relations and there will be those who lose and those who will take advantage of the opportunities and get more. The time has come for strong people and bold actions.

[US7IGN]

Hi Brady, don’t worry - I do not intend to divert this forum to US domestic issues. However, sometimes our domestic issues are very relevant to Ukraine and my comments above are offered in that context.

Exactly! Unfortunately, those in power in Ukraine are not the people who could use all the opportunities that a change of administration in the US provides. I also hope that there will be a Finnish option - the loss of some territory, non-aligned status, development of the economy under Western control. And a sign of this is the signing of an agreement with the US on the use of mineral resources. I am sure that it will be signed, although we will certainly not be told about its full content and secret annexes.

I don't agree with Bloomberg's opinion that President Trump’s fixation on extracting elements from the war-torn nation is an illusion.
But I agree that the Ukrainians themselves started the hype around Ukraine’s rare earths. Desperate to find a way to engage Trump, they presented the president-elect with a “victory plan” in November that made a lot of noise about the country’s mineral potential. But they didn’t expect it to have such an impact.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-19/trump-s-insistence-ukraine-has-rare-earth-elements-is-wrong?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTczOTk1Mjk3OCwiZXhwIjoxNzQwNTU3Nzc4LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTUldaOElEV1JHRzAwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0NEMyQzc4RTVBMjQ0NjdDOTU5MDI0NjRBQjUwQ0U2MSJ9.AUGgELhGWI8WZONll_P-dj1bQKtCcyyJWoYgVLAZJAU&leadSource=uverify%20wall

[N0TZU]

The possibility of rare earth mineral extraction was brilliant in the sense of giving Trump a reason to care about the future of Ukraine after the current fighting stops. The downside is that famously transactional and grasping Trump wants a retroactive contract for half or more of the minerals for aid already delivered. Are there enough of the minerals to be of practical significance and are they profitable enough to extract beginning in a reasonable time? I don’t know, but much of this will be an aspirational stage show anyway.

How will Putin be kept away for more than a few years that it takes for him to rearm? Minerals or not, I don’t see Trump supplying Ukraine with hundreds of millions of dollars in weaponry, and Ukraine no longer has the ready manpower for troops. Western peace keeping troops in Ukraine don’t seem possible, and a Finnish option of building a strong defensive non-NATO military in time seems very difficult to pay for given the simultaneous need to rebuild the devastated areas of the country (and the economy generally). Perhaps I lack sufficient imagination.

Also, how will the rebuilding alone be financed? Surely Putin wants the frozen Russian accounts in Western banks returned as part of the peace deal, probably with all or most of the accrued interest.

[US7IGN]

How will Putin be kept away for more than a few years that it takes for him to rearm? Minerals or not, I don’t see Trump supplying Ukraine with hundreds of millions of dollars in weaponry, and Ukraine no longer has the ready manpower for troops. Western peace keeping troops in Ukraine don’t seem possible, and a Finnish option of building a strong defensive non-NATO military in time seems very difficult to pay for given the simultaneous need to rebuild the devastated areas of the country (and the economy generally). Perhaps I lack sufficient imagination.

Ukraine still has a huge potential. Just think about the fact that despite everything, the russians are still moving extremely slowly. Imagine what would happen if the Ukrainian army got enough weapons, and the Ukrainian people got a government that would think first of all about the interests of the country and people, and not about its own.

Exactly three years ago, the president brazenly lied, which cost hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKJtI_Vw8Rw&t=250s

"We are well aware of provocations and the advance of the aggressor's troops. We have the truth. And we will never hide the truth from you. As soon as we see a change in the situation, as soon as we see an increase in risks, you will know about it. There is no reason for chaotic actions now..."

[N0TZU]

Ukraine still has a huge potential. Just think about the fact that despite everything, the russians are still moving extremely slowly. Imagine what would happen if the Ukrainian army got enough weapons, and the Ukrainian people got a government that would think first of all about the interests of the country and people, and not about its own.

Exactly three years ago, the president brazenly lied, which cost hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKJtI_Vw8Rw&t=250s

"We are well aware of provocations and the advance of the aggressor's troops. We have the truth. And we will never hide the truth from you. As soon as we see a change in the situation, as soon as we see an increase in risks, you will know about it. There is no reason for chaotic actions now..."

I am in complete agreement with you about the potential of Ukraine. Her people are naturally and undeniably innovative and hard working, as this war has demonstrated time and time again.

With consistent and honest rule of law, fair and reasonable taxation, logical policies to encourage the return of refuges, work, and investment, the country would do very well indeed. I hope that competent and honest people are elected soon after the war ends and that they quickly establish this.

Still, I believe there will be a need for large amounts of foreign investment, loans and donations for reconstruction and rearming. This must be done in such a way that corruption is very low or nonexistent. For example, not paying the money to the government for disbursement which invites corruption, and instead make direct payments to suppliers. A good example might be the policies of the US Marshall Plan after WW2.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/how-did-the-marshal-plan-avoid-GEqPtjoiQe.qqslfaGL19A#0

[US7IGN]

On the night of February 23, the russians launched 267 "Shahediv" and simulator drones over Ukraine, of which the Air Force shot down 138, but there was still damage. The regions most affected were: Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Poltava, Kyiv and Zaporizhia, where debris fell, fires broke out, and people were injured.

https://24tv.ua/ataka-shahediv-23-lyutogo-shho-vidomo-pro-naymasshtabnishiy-udar_n2759773
https://gordonua.com/ukr/news/military-actions/rosijski-udarni-bpla-atakuvali-kijiv-pozhezhi-vinikli-v-kilkokh-rajonakh-dsns-pokazala-naslidki-1734344.html
https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/694986-obstril-sogodni-rf-atakuvala-ukrajinu-bpla-ta-balistikoyu-novini-ukrajini?utm_source=ukrnet_news

Today is the russians' army holiday, and tomorrow is the third anniversary of the big invasion, so I think they will continue their air attacks tonight.

But official statistics are silent about the missiles again. It was very loud all night and believe me, I and many others have long been able to distinguish by sound when missiles and drones are shot down or when they hit the target.

I noticed that sleepless nights are bad for me and I feel pain in my chest again.

However, the attacks on Kyiv are more of a psychological nature.

One of the most powerful strikes occurred on February 11, when the russians launched a combined attack with drones and missiles in several waves. At that time, the Air Force reported that russia was targeting gas fields in the Poltava region.

Another massive strike occurred on the night of February 20. The Minister of Energy, Herman Galushchenko, has already reported on its consequences. He stated that this time, "production facilities, in particular, were damaged."
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cevxyw0rmlzo

Ukraine plans to import up to 800 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas from Europe in February and March to compensate for a sometimes 40% drop in production after russian missile strikes on the sector, a senior industry source told Reuters on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-plans-import-800-mcm-gas-until-april-after-russian-strikes-2025-02-21/

Polish President Andrzej Duda met with US President Donald Trump on February 22. During the meeting in Washington, the leaders discussed russia's war against Ukraine. "We must not allow russia to defeat Ukraine," Duda said. He believes that "without American support, Ukraine will not survive this war," and given the kind of russia and putin, for whom the lives of russian soldiers do not matter, "this war must be ended somehow." https://x.com/prezydentpl/status/1893593101739958442?mx=2

[US7IGN]

The BBC conducted a study on how Ukraine has changed over the past three years, but in my opinion all the material losses do not compare with the population losses. According to UN calculations, since February 2022, Ukraine's population has decreased by 10 million, or about a quarter. According to a CIA report published in the fall of 2024, the mortality rate in Ukraine is 18.6 per thousand people. This is the highest rate in the world. Similarly, according to CIA data for 2024, Ukraine has the lowest birth rate in the world - six children per thousand people - and ranks 228th. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c5y43ggzqglo

The U.S. is refusing to co-sponsor a draft U.N. resolution marking three years since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine that backs Ukraine's territorial integrity and again demands russia withdraw its troops, three diplomatic sources told Reuters, in a potential stark shift by Ukraine's most powerful Western ally. Washington has also objected to a phrase in a statement the Group of Seven nations was planning to issue next week that would condemn russian aggression, two other sources told Reuters.
The U.S. refusal to agree to language that has been regularly used by the U.N. and G7 since February 2022 comes amid a widening rift between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump is trying to rapidly end the war in Ukraine and sent a team to hold talks with russia this week in Saudi Arabia without the involvement of Kyiv. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-refusing-co-sponsor-un-motion-backing-ukraine-ahead-war-anniversary-diplomats-2025-02-20/

Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference, Donald Trump said that Washington and Moscow are "close to an agreement" to end the war. He also said that the US intends to make a deal with Ukraine not only on rare earth metals, but also on other resources. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/crlxny1wn20o

Ukrainians increasingly prefer to keep money at home rather than in banks. According to the results of 2024, the amount of cash in circulation increased by 7.6%. Economic instability and the consequences of the war have caused distrust in the banking system, as citizens fear possible restrictions on withdrawals.

Additional factors:
Memories of the 2014–2015 crisis and the bankruptcy of many banks. Convenience of cash payments, especially in regions with limited access to digital payments. Privacy - many people do not want their finances to be tracked by banks or government agencies. Men's money can be seized without their knowledge due to real or perceived violations of military duties by unscrupulous officials. https://enovosty.com/uk/news-ukr/news-finance-ukr/full/vijmayut-z-bankiv-milyardami-shho-zmushuye-ukrainciv-masovo-zapasatisya-gotivkoyu

[US7IGN]

Another drone attack at night, although I expected more. However, in the morning the sky was covered with smog of unknown origin. Judging by the smell, the forest was burning. The road to the office took twice as long as usual due to traffic jams due to the presence of foreign guests in Kyiv, including Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

On February 24, the third anniversary of russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 13 leaders from different countries gathered in the capital. They came in person to assure that they are still committed to supporting Ukraine despite the mixed messages coming from Washington in recent days.

Dozens of other leaders spoke at the summit online. In particular, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the president of Switzerland, the country that will chair the OSCE this year.

In total, about 40 countries participated in the summit, including EU countries, EU leaders, NATO, Canada, and Japan. It was noticeable that the US was not represented at this meeting.

Billions of euros in aid, new sanctions against russia, a proposal to exchange prisoners on an all-for-all basis, words of support for Ukrainians, peace, and "personally for President Zelensky" - this is how the "Support Ukraine" summit in Kyiv went. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cjry2qz7zyxo?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D

Perhaps the most striking news of the day was the behavior of the United States at the special session during a United Nations General Assembly meeting. The United States joined russia to vote against a UN General Assembly resolution condemning russia’s war against Ukraine in a stunning shift from years of US policy, siding with russia and 14 russian allies.

The resolution was adopted by the General Assembly with 93 votes in favor. It notes “with concern the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the russian Federation has persisted for three years and continues to have devastating and long-lasting consequences not only for Ukraine, but also for other regions and global stability” and “calls for a de-escalation, an early cessation of hostilities and a peaceful resolution of the war against Ukraine.”

The US had introduced a rival General Assembly resolution, which did not call russia the aggressor or acknowledge Ukraine’s territorial integrity. But the US ended up abstaining on the vote for its own resolution at the General Assembly after several amendments were passed ahead of the vote to strengthen the language against russia and reaffirm Ukraine’s territorial integrity. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/24/politics/us-joins-russia-ukraine-un-vote/index.html

"Concessions on both sides." The US is close to a peace agreement on the war in Ukraine, the Istanbul Protocol can be a guideline, said US Presidential Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff on February 23. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/ssha-duzhe-blizko-do-domovlenostey-pro-zavershennya-viyni-v-ukrajini-stiv-vitkoff-50492385.html

For me the third anniversary of the great invasion passed rather mundanely. Perhaps because my head was mostly occupied with work.

[US7IGN]

The guy who makes antennas for Ukrainian soldiers got an order from them again.

These are verticals for 155 and 430 MHz.

In order to make 100 pieces, 70,000 UAH are required.

Collected 17,000 UAH.

1 dollar = 42 UAH.

https://send.monobank.ua/jar/hnE5DdVQz

4441 1111 2121 5143

UA943220010000026208354956232


https://www.privat24.ua/send/2y7z8

5168752131838842


PayPal

UR8LV@ukr.net

https://ur8lv.com/1621841299

[KD8ZM-Brady]

I have read all the responses from my being away for a few days - family crisis. It seems there have been a lot of crises lately, around here!
I think it is almost impossible to tell what Washington's actual policy is, regarding Ukraine, and it is being intentionally confusing. I think anyone who's studied negotiation strategy understands that (for example) telling Putin what he wants to hear could be either: (a) genuine admiration, (b) the US playing "good cop, bad cop" with Trump being the good cop and Kellogg being the bad cop (from Putin's perspective), (c) an attempt to appear to be on Putin's side to fully convince Western Europe that they're on their own militarily, to finally get them off dead-center with increasing their own military defenses, or (d) all of the above, since none of them are mutually exclusive. 
Similarly, the rare earths quasi-deal could be to: (a) allow the US to show that they got something strategically (vs China) and economically valuable in exchange for support, (b) an opportunity to get US companies to obtain contracts to extract the minerals, (c) to establish a "US strategic/economic interest" in Ukraine that would make attacking Ukraine in the future into a direct attack upon important US facilities, without needing to bring Ukraine into NATO.
Most confusing, when you start to think about all of the possible goals from the US side, and I have no idea which are real and which are not. So, I refrain from drawing conclusions until I see the results.

As an aside, NATO will be holding a summit only 15 miles from my house in May, it should be an interesting and also congested time!