Ukraine updates in English

[US7IGN]

I agree that there may be many options and the fact that there is still uncertainty is really good. I don't know how Trump plays chess, but playing golf also requires strategic thinking and precise calculation. After Trump outplayed two opponents in the election campaign, I think he will cope with all the rest. Another thing is that Ukraine and its interests are not something he will take into account in his game. In the big game with China, Ukraine is a small pawn that can easily be sacrificed.

Kyiv has agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal that Ukrainian officials hope will improve relations with the Trump administration and pave the way for a long-term US security commitment. Ukrainian officials say Kyiv is now ready to sign the agreement on jointly developing its mineral resources, including oil and gas, after the US dropped demands for a right to $500bn in potential revenue from exploiting the resources. https://www.ft.com/content/1890d104-1395-4393-a71d-d299aed448e6

EU offers its own ‘win-win’ minerals deal to Ukraine. The European Union offered its own agreement on "critical materials" to Ukraine on Monday, just as U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Washington was close to inking a deal with Kyiv for the rights to its vast natural resources. "Twenty-one of the 30 critical materials Europe needs can be provided by Ukraine in a win-win partnership," Séjourné said, according to AFP. https://www.politico.eu/article/critical-minerals-rare-earths-deal-eu-not-donald-trump/

Against this backdrop, putin also made a statement about minerals. In an interview with russian state television, he said that he was ready to "offer" the Americans resources in joint projects, including mining in "new territories of russia," that is, in occupied Ukrainian lands. The offer could also include cooperation between the two countries in mining and supplying aluminum to the United States to stabilize prices, putin added. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cj0q227v6z2o

French President Emmanuel Macron said after meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington that he believes a ceasefire between russia and Ukraine is possible in the coming weeks. The ceasefire should be followed by talks on a long-term peace. Europe, Macron said, is ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine, including sending a peacekeeping contingent there. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/czx7k540en6o

At around 4 am on February 24, 2022, the russian army launched an offensive into Ukrainian territory. It was carried out from several directions at once: south, east, and north. However, it was in the south, where it seemed easiest for Ukrainians to hold the narrow Crimean isthmus, that the russian offensive achieved the greatest success. Why this happened is still unknown.

Within hours of the start of the invasion from the territory of occupied Crimea, russian military columns were able to reach Kherson and Novaya Kakhovka, that is, to go 60-80 km into the rear.

In parallel, the russian army developed an offensive to the east, where by the end of February - beginning of March 2022 it was able to capture such large cities as Berdyansk, Melitopol, Energodar, and the nearby Zaporizhzhia NPP. Then a long and bloody siege of Mariupol began, which fell in mid-May.

After three years of full-scale war, the territorial gains in southern Ukraine remain the Kremlin’s most significant achievement and one of the most mysterious aspects of the conflict. Neither Ukraine’s political nor military leadership can provide a comprehensive answer to why the south failed. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c30ml7861z0o

Yesterday I learned that Friedrich Merz DK7DQ won the elections in Germany.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Wlad, I agree with you that Ukraine's well-being may be a very tiny consideration for Trump. BUT, one thing about Trump is that he desperately wants to be viewed as a winner, and in order to be perceived as a winner, he has to prevent Russia from re-invading Ukraine after any peace deal is implemented. By the way I do not think his is any different from the motivation that other world leaders have had (that is, putting their interests first), but Trump is more transparent about it. For instance, the Bush presidents wrapping their military actions in Kuwait and Iraq in patriotic, democratic, and moral terms, while the real reasons were more about oil, world power, and getting even with Saddam Hussein. Does anyone believe that the US would have defended Kuwait from Saddam Hussein in 1992, if Kuwait didn't have oil?

While I have no illusions about geopolitics being primarily driven by morality or a sense of noblesse oblige, I am heartened by the fact that unlike any time in the past three years, leaders are at least trading ideas about how to to stop the slaughter of war, even if for selfish reasons.

[US7IGN]

Hi Braden!

This also has a practical explanation. If too many people die, there will simply be no one to work and earn money for them.

In the short term, many abroad see increased mobilization as a solution to the problem, but the way mobilization is happening in Ukraine only exacerbates this problem. Many Ukrainians are also further demoralized by Trump's statements, which are perceived as a renewal of friendship with russia and a betrayal of Ukraine. And this is a case where words also have an impact.

Mr Trump guarantees one thing if nothing else: tomorrow will be different. Perhaps, amid the chaos and ultimatums, he will deliver a ceasefire on reasonable terms. A month into his second term it is looking more likely that he won’t. If the war indeed continues, and russia continues to recruit as it has been, Ukraine’s mobilisation will have to get even tougher. “The tightening will continue,” says the senior Ukrainian official, “because no one has come up with a better solution.” That prospect risks cracking open divisions in an already exhausted nation, and spurring more violence against draft officers.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/02/26/ukraine-is-scrambling-to-find-fresh-fighters

Donald Trump says Ukraine's President Zelensky will sign a "very big agreement" in the US on Friday. The US and Ukraine have been discussing a deal to share Ukraine's mineral wealth, in return for past US aid and - possibly - future security guarantees. "We've been able to make a deal where we're going to get our money back, and we're going to get a lot of money in the future," Trump says. Earlier, Zelensky said there were no security guarantees yet in the mineral deal between Ukraine and the US. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cvg1402yyvet

Well, dozens of agreements on cooperation in the field of security have already been signed with the EU and various countries, but there is still no confidence in security...
https://suspilne.media/793625-ukraina-ta-slovenia-pidpisali-bezpekovu-ugodu/
https://www.unian.ua/world/ukrajina-pidpisala-bezpekovi-ugodi-z-yevrosoyuzom-litvoyu-i-estoniyeyu-12679581.html
https://suspilne.media/860081-ukraina-pidpisala-z-grecieu-bezpekovu-ugodu/

There are many unclear things about this deal. I doubt that we will see its full text and all appendices, including secret ones, any time soon. However, the choice between the use of these natural resources by russians, oligarchs and Western corporations, from the point of view of benefit for the ordinary Ukrainian, is obvious.

Why putin is finally negotiating, asked Politico https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-donald-trump-moscow-ukraine-gdp-finance-war-banks/ Moscow could soon struggle to finance the war, and fiscal breathing room may well be what the russian leader’s looking for.

We hear that russia will collapse very soon for the third year already, but it still does not happen. Ok, maybe it will happen this year.

Ukrainian military began shooting down russian Shahed strike drones with FPV drones. https://hromadske.ua/viyna/240428-my-pochaly-zbyvaty-shakhedy-fpv-dronamy-tse-daye-rezultaty-komanduvach-syl-bezpilotnykh-system?traffic_source=ukr.net

But still, every night they attack Ukraine in their hundreds.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Wlad, some excellent points made there, and I agree with all of them. To further your one point about mobilization, it was of course always going to be the case that if the war remained a war of attrition, Ukraine could never win such a war. With 140 million Russians and 40 million Ukrainians, Russia can toss bodies into the abyss for far longer than Ukraine can. Plus, the Russians don't care at all about the sacrifice of their people, and (I hope) the Ukrainian leadership cares at least a little about their people.

With such a war of attrition, of course it is in Ukraine's interest that the war end sooner rather than later. I haven't met anyone over here who believes that more mobilization is going to save Ukraine. Maybe Trump can pull off a deal to stop this, maybe not - but it's worth a try. Minerals do nothing for Ukraine as long as they are in the ground, so I would think that any deal that gets them out of the ground would be good for the country, and would give the West minerals that today are all but controlled by the Chinese and Russians.

As usual, Trump should probably shut up more often and avoid further demoralizing Ukraine.

Speaking of rumors about Russia's imminent collapse, such wishful thinking reminds me of the speculations a couple of years ago that Putin was about to die of cancer. Unless his doppelganger is now in charge, I'd say he has pulled through fairly well. "Rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated." - Mark Twain

[N0TZU]

…one thing about Trump is that he desperately wants to be viewed as a winner, and in order to be perceived as a winner, he has to prevent Russia from re-invading Ukraine after any peace deal is implemented.

Perhaps, but I see it differently. Being a winner in such things is a bit like being beautiful, it is in the eye of the beholder. Trump boasted numerous times that he would end the war rapidly and IMO is therefore desperate to do so even if it means accepting most or all of Putin’s terms.

As long as a couple of years pass before Putin invades again, Trump probably would claim that things are different than when he brokered peace and find excuses for why he isn’t then responsible. After all, strategic geopolitics is difficult… Putin needs several years to rearm anyway.

An agreement by Ukraine to share mineral wealth with the US (and Europe, it’s unclear), if it comes to pass, may simply be a “win” in the form of payment squeezed from Ukraine to justify to isolationists the assistance given, or it may be to give some additional incentive for the US and Europe to support and defend Ukraine in the future, or both.

However much depends on the nature of the agreement and whether the minerals are in fact recovered in useful quantity and quality. Reportedly the agreement may only be about sharing revenue or profit with the US, but not actually supplying the minerals themselves.

Not yet discussed publicly that I’ve seen is what will happen to Russian assets and interest frozen in western banks, even though these could be used toward reconstructing war damage in Ukraine. I expect them to be repatriated by the peace agreement, since to use them for Ukraine would require the agreement to recognize culpability of Russia.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

I have seen discussion in the European news about the frozen assets, to the effect that no matter what Trump and Putin decide about the frozen assets, the Europeans and Japanese may do what they wish, with them. That is, since they are not a party to the negotiations and will not therefore be bound by them.

[N0TZU]

I have seen discussion in the European news about the frozen assets, to the effect that no matter what Trump and Putin decide about the frozen assets, the Europeans and Japanese may do what they wish, with them. That is, since they are not a party to the negotiations and will not therefore be bound by them.

Good. I hope that Trump would not try to force them to repatriate the funds by threatening with tariffs or something else.

Presumably assets held in the US would be subject to the peace agreement. Those are only $3 to $6 billion of the total of around $300 billion frozen in western nations, according to Perplexity and the references it used.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

That sounds about right as far as the funds held directly in the US. I think I would just tell the Russians that if they are going to keep the territories they've taken, we're going to keep the funds we've taken. Honestly, though, I don't think Russia cares that much about the $300 bn, that is a pittance compared to the energy sales they will be making to Europe once any peace deal is complete. They'll probably just use it as a bargaining chip. The Europeans can't wait to start getting cheap Russian energy again, despite what they say in public, and Russia can't wait to start making those sales again through Gazprom.

[N0TZU]

If there were any doubts about the attitudes of JD Vance and Donald Trump toward Zelensky and Ukraine, they should be gone now with the televised meeting today at the White House. Of course, it was an error for Zelensky to try to summarize the larger history of the war as extending from Obama, to Trump, to Biden, and now Trump again (plus European leaders he mentioned) in order to correct Vance who tried to pin the entire thing on Biden.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LlZ0lr1x_B8

There are numerous press accounts including what Trump said on truth social afterward, for example the NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/02/28/us/trump-news/trump-zelensky-ukraine-russia-putin

Putin is probably be opening champagne and toasting Trump.

[US7IGN]

Undoubtedly the main event of the day is the Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky and JD Vance meeting, who clashed in an extraordinary shouting match at the White House, with Trump telling the Ukrainian president to "make a deal or we're out".

The US president tells his Ukrainian counterpart to be "thankful" and accuses him of "gambling with World War Three".

Zelensky says there should be "no compromises" with Vladimir putin - but Trump says Kyiv will have to make concessions to reach a peace deal with russia.

Afterwards, Zelensky was told to leave the White House and a planned news conference with the two presidents was abruptly cancelled.

"He can come back when he is ready for peace," Trump posted on his Truth Social platform.

The spilling over we saw in the Oval Office today reflected what's at stake for Zelensky and his country.

This is not just about minerals or money; it's about making sure three years of bloody fighting hasn't been for nothing. It’s about the future existence of Ukraine in the face of an existential war.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c625ex282zzt

Of course, it was an error for Zelensky to

He made many other mistakes earlier, which eventually led to what we have now. Recently, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kyrylo Budanov, who I consider one of the smartest and most knowledgeable people in Ukraine, gave an interesting interview. And in it, he again recalled that back in the fall of 2021, he warned Zelensky about how and when the russians were going to attack, but he was ignored.
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3964703-kirilo-budanov-nacalnik-golovnogo-upravlinna-rozvidki-minoboroni-generallejtenant.html

But some people, including me, doubt that this was not staged. Negotiations of this level are conducted according to protocol and are planned in advance. In fact, they are beneficial both for Zelensky, who can continue the war for some time while remaining in power, and for Trump, who can explain the impossibility of a quick peace that he promised by blaming Zelensky for this, and continuing to secretly give weapons to Ukraine. In this way, he continues to put pressure on putin, outwardly demonstrating good intentions.

The fact that some more Ukrainians will be killed and something destroyed does not matter to either one.

There is one more thing that confuses me. Trump says he and Zelensky are going to sign the US-proposed minerals deal with Ukraine during their joint news conference in the East Room of the White House. He describes the deal as "very fair".

The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine published an order approving the agreement with the US on minerals, and determined who exactly should sign it from government officials.

Thus, the order dated February 26, 2025 No. 164-r “On the signing of the Bilateral Agreement on establishing the rules and conditions of the reconstruction investment fund” states:

“To approve the draft Bilateral Agreement on establishing the rules and conditions of the reconstruction investment fund.

To authorize the First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine - Minister of Economy Yulia Anatolyivna Svyrydenko or the Minister of Foreign Affairs Andriy Ivanovich Sybiga to sign the said Agreement.”
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/324322-kabmin-upolnomochil-yuliyu-sviridenko-ili-andreya-sibigu-na-podpisanie-soglasheniya-s-ssha-po-poleznym-iskopaemym-no-tekst-soglasheniya-vse-esche-derzhit-v-sekrete

Therefore, the question arises again whether Zelensky had the right to sign such an agreement?

I also remember another similar deal. U.S. President Donald Trump and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in 2017 backed having companies from the United States develop Afghanistan's reserves of rare earth minerals, despite formidable obstacles to industrial mining in the country.  The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated the potential value of Afghanistan's minerals, including gold and gemstones as well as substances like lithium and rare earths vital in modern electronics, at as much as $1 trillion. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-afghanistan-minerals/trump-ghani-agree-us-can-help-develop-afghanistans-rare-earth-minerals-idUSKCN1BX06G/

Meanwhile, the procedure for traveling abroad has been further complicated for journalists, artists, and drivers who deliver humanitarian aid and previously had the opportunity to temporarily leave Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cd7eegz3rweo

[N0TZU]

Ambush is the word that comes to mind rather than staged.

I expect US support of Ukraine to be withdrawn almost immediately. According to press reports, it’s already very low anyway.

I agree with analyses that conclude Trump doesn’t want to be confined by alliances or notions of morality in international relations. He prefers instead a return to pre-WW2 “big power” domination , today meaning the US, Russia and China. Might makes Right in his view.

Did anyone seriously expect that his damaged personality and ego would be content with navigating the little squabbles and the need for carefully considered actions involved in maintaining alliances around the world? It’s not in his nature. Nor is doing something without obvious payment. There is a reason, yet to come to light, that he is so eager to do Putin’s bidding.

In his previous term there were cabinet secretaries and military leaders who could advise him not to engage in ruinous actions, and delay and negotiate as needed when that advice wasn’t immediately heeded. But Trump learned from that experience and it’s not the case now.

Look at what he is doing domestically.  His is illegally dismantling or crippling many parts of the government with ignorant (and in many cases illegal and fraudulent) mass firings of civil servants even in essential sectors, firing people for perceived revenge or nakedly political reasons, and withholding legally required funds and payments. He is dismissing experienced and capable men and women leaders throughout the government and replacing them with inexperienced, malleable sycophants.

This has notably applied also to the highest ranks of the US military. It’s obvious to me that Sec. Def. Hegseth is there to carry out whatever orders Trump gives without question including patently illegal ones. The Joint Chiefs are being replaced with pliable people who will not refuse the orders.

Everywhere one looks at Trumps actions they support his desire to have unchecked power.  Most ominously he, Vance and others have already said that perhaps they don’t need to obey court orders, and Trump has made clear suggestions that perhaps he will stay in office for more than one term in violation of the constitution.

I am embarrassed and disgusted by the choice the voters made. I fear greatly for Ukraine.

The US and the world are quickly moving into extremely dangerous times and I fear that our institutions may not be strong enough.

[seawar]

The States need a Ukrainian Maidan...
It would seem that is a pillar of democracy, a political leader of the world... But he is also not immune to crises.

[US7IGN]

Ambush is the word that comes to mind rather than staged.

We can call it a planned ambush.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should apologize after his meeting with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office devolved into what Rubio described as a “fiasco,” while questioning whether the Ukrainian leader really wants peace in the country’s war with russia. “There was no need for him to go in there and become antagonistic,” he said.

Asked about comments by South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham – typically a strong supporter of Ukraine – after the meeting that Zelensky should consider resigning.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/28/politics/rubio-zelensky-apology-trump-cnntv/index.html

Did Zelensky really think that he could change anything with his personal presence? It is obvious that he was not welcome with an opinion different from the previously made proposal. It is also obvious that ignoring persistent recommendations to hold elections turned into a refusal to talk to him at all and an offer to resign. By putting personal interests above the interests of the country, Zelensky is confidently dragging Ukraine into the abyss. It would be strange if Trump did not take advantage of this opportunity and did not say that he was glad that everything happened in front of cameras and the whole world saw who he had to deal with. Thus, Zelensky allows Trump and putin to accuse him of obstructing the conclusion of a peace agreement.

I am embarrassed and disgusted by the choice the voters made.

You understand now those who did not vote for Zelensky, but who bore collective responsibility for the choice of the majority. They say that millions of flies can't be wrong. But I think this is a problem of bees, not flies.
Anyway, this is the price of democracy. If voters are not good enough, they lose democracy.

We will soon find out what the consequences will be for Ukraine.

On February 28, a Trump administration official said that all U.S. aid to Ukraine—including the final shipments of munitions and equipment authorized and paid for during the Biden administration—could be immediately canceled.

Also at issue is indirect U.S. support, which includes other types of military funding, intelligence sharing, training of Ukrainian soldiers and pilots, and hosting a call center that manages international aid at a U.S. military base in Germany. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/28/us/politics/trump-ukraine-weapons.html

Europe as always is very late in reacting, not to mention taking the initiative on its own continent. Again, a lot of words about support and little money in the budget of Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz9n5jq42pdo

Perhaps European leaders continue to believe that Ukrainians will continue to die in a war of attrition endlessly. It seems that only JD Vance saw a video from which it follows that not all Ukrainians agree to be cannon fodder.

The weather has changed again, it's warmer, but the sky is overcast and there was a little snow. I'm tired after a hard week at work and sleepy most of the day. Colin G3ZAF even pointed this out in our regular zoom meeting. However, I did have several QSO with Japan and China this morning.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Bob, I don't really view it the same way as you, but I'm going to practice forebearance in not commenting on the politics because as I said earlier, I will not be a party to making this a forum about US politics.
The only thing I will say is that I am going to wait to see the end result of what Trump and Z are doing, and then compare it to the current situation where young Ukrainian men's bodies are being tossed endlessly into Russia's meat grinder with no apparent plan for ending the slaughter. If I weren't sitting a world away in safety, and instead, either my life or my son's life were being tossed in front of Russia's tanks, I would be willing to sacrifice a lot of territory, minerals, and pride, to save my son's life.

[N0TZU]

I am going to wait to see the end result of what Trump and Z are doing, and then compare it to the current situation where young Ukrainian men's bodies are being tossed endlessly into Russia's meat grinder with no apparent plan for ending the slaughter. If I weren't sitting a world away in safety, and instead, either my life or my son's life were being tossed in front of Russia's tanks, I would be willing to sacrifice a lot of territory, minerals, and pride, to save my son's life.

I agree, and hope for the best outcome for Ukraine. I believe that there will be an agreement to end the war soon, despite the disastrous meeting, because it is in the interest of all parties - albeit to varying degrees. I remain extremely worried about what will happen to Ukraine two or three years hence after Russia rearms.