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US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #660 : Марта 09, 2025, 11:19:57 pm »
Your quote by the Chinese spokesman Wang is ironic and typical of the doublethink that Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn spoke about under the Soviets: Wang believes that relationships between countries should be worked out peacefully, but cannot envision working things out peacefully with China's citizens. For them, it's either comply or go to prison.

What the official representative said must be considered in the context of course.

I found it interesting what Alexander Gabuev said in the interview. You will not see information about China unless you specifically look for it. That is why I pay attention to such publications. I also understand that even if you know Chinese and live in China, much will still remain unknown to you. Nevertheless, I paid attention to the following statements about China:

The Chinese do not believe that they know everything better than anyone else, and that everyone around them should live like them. But China, in their view, is, of course, the strongest power on Earth. Or in other words: America dominates the Western Hemisphere, and China dominates the Eastern Hemisphere. In Asia, China is an absolute hegemon, there are no wars here, because everyone de facto recognizes China's suzerainty and respects Chinese interests.

And here we need to make a very important remark about how our cultures differ in their understanding of what a mutually beneficial agreement is. In the Western sense, "win-win" is when the proportion of this "win" between the parties to the agreement fluctuates somewhere around 50 to 50 or, let's say, 40 to 60. And in the Chinese view, "win-win" is any agreement in which each party fixes any gain.

That is, conventionally speaking, if we started a joint business, earned a dollar together, but you received one cent from the profit, and I received 99, then in the Chinese sense it is still a "win-win", because at least you earned something. And if there were no business, you would not earn anything.

The narrative of state television can be described as "Not everything is so clear-cut." That is, yes, there is a war, war is generally bad. Territorial integrity is violated - it is also not good. But, on the other hand, all this is, of course, a consequence of NATO expansion, American machinations, so russia can be understood. This is if we simplify it completely.

China supports russia economically and technologically, but says it does not do what the West does. After all, the West directly supplies Ukraine with weapons, shares intelligence with it, trains Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters, etc. China manipulates this, but the conflict in Ukraine for them is a proxy war between superpowers. So if in this situation russia is ready to provide oil, fertilizers, grain – its own and stolen Ukrainian – at a discount, then why not take advantage of this if we need it? Many countries in the world do this, and they do not condemn China for it. Even India, the largest democracy in the world, does less than China, but it is quite enough to keep russia afloat, at least in terms of supporting its exports.

China was absolutely convinced that there would be no war. Their main argument was that it was not in russia’s interest. After all, even if we imagine that russia would quickly seize Ukraine, it would result in some losses, the introduction of large-scale sanctions. This would mean a guerrilla war at least on part of the territory of Ukraine. This would lead to an increase in the US military presence in Europe, a possible expansion of NATO, and an increase in russia’s dependence on China. What is the point of this, even if russia succeeds?

It seemed to them that if they see this in China, then of course putin is not an idiot, and he sees it in the Kremlin too. But they were wrong. putin is obsessed with Ukraine and this makes him a bad partner, but stopping the war or, even more so, russia’s military defeat will lead to a change of power to someone pro-Western – this is a nightmare for China. That’s it, russia falls into the Western sphere of influence, China finds itself surrounded.

Therefore, they don’t care how the war ends, it is important for them that putin or someone like putin is in the Kremlin. Accordingly, they are ready to play on the verge of violating sanctions so that russia remains sufficiently combat-ready, so that it at least doesn’t lose, because this does not correspond to their interests. Although they believe that putin is an obsessed fanatic.

And the Chinese had a feeling - and quite rightly so - that America would deal with russia now, and then come after them with redoubled force. And why help them in this case? That's why the Chinese are behaving cynically, but as rationally as possible.

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #661 : Марта 09, 2025, 11:29:28 pm »
Your thought experiment is borne out by the country's policies, aren't they? For examples, a closed border and I'm also pretty sure that the man who you witnessed being chased down for mobilization would like to see something worked out by diplomacy.

This is an interesting topic in general. De facto, some Ukrainians ended up in slavery, but is anything known about this abroad? However, I and many others consider forced labor and military service to be the most expensive and ineffective method. Corruption and disregard for the health and qualifications of those who are forcibly mobilized lead to the destruction of many specialists as cannon fodder, and old and sick people consume resources, but do not bring benefits. I do not know how things are in other companies, but in mine out of 10 people only three are men.

As for diplomacy, sometimes it seems to me that it does not exist at all in Ukraine. The public humiliation of the president in the USA, the ambassador in England who does not even know English, the ambassador in China who the Chinese do not want to meet...

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #662 : Марта 09, 2025, 11:44:52 pm »
I was pleasantly surprised to see that “Made in Ukraine” is printed on the Blizzard Rustler 9 skis I purchased recently! According to internet sources the plant is in Mukachevo.

Blizzard is a long time Austrian ski manufacturer, presently owned by Tecnica Group of Italy.

Ukraine produced many good things, but in three years many businesses and professionals left the country. And russian shelling is not to blame for this. Businesses have proven able to protect and hide their production facilities from missiles and drones and find alternative energy sources, but there is no way to hide from taxes, corruption and kidnapping.

Last night there were drones and missiles again and it was loud in Kyiv. Air defense in Kyiv is still coping well, which cannot be said about other cities. This winter was warm again and we had virtually no interruptions in energy supplies, but nuclear power plants were operating at full capacity and will soon be taken out for repairs and maintenance.

he U.S. decision to suspend the flow of military intelligence to Ukraine this week has aided the russian advance along a critical part of the front, weakening the negotiating position of President Volodymyr Zelensky and killing many Ukrainian soldiers in recent days, according to five senior Western and Ukrainian officials and military officers familiar with the situation.

“As a result of this pause, there are hundreds of dead Ukrainians,” one of the officers told TIME in an interview on Friday in Kyiv, asking not to be named when discussing sensitive military operations. “The biggest problem is morale,” he added, as the armed forces of Ukraine are being left to fight without some of their best weapons systems, not as a result of russian attacks but American pull backs. “It’s really causing an advantage for the enemy on the front line.” https://time.com/7265679/satellites-front-failing-hundreds-dead-fallout-trump-ukraine-aid-pause/

The United States can’t just switch off the U.S.-designed Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters that are re-equipping the Ukrainian air force. But the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has halted U.S. aid to Ukraine, including vital support for the F-16s’ radar jammers.

That could deprive the Ukrainian air force of its most important aerial countermeasures at a critical moment in russia’s three-year wider war on Ukraine. But the Ukrainians aren’t powerless—and they still have allies. They could shift the burden of aerial jamming onto the Dassault Mirage 2000 fighters they’re getting from France. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/07/france-to-the-rescue-french-made-mirage-2000-jets-could-become-ukraines-most-important-aerial-radar-jammers/

KD8ZM-Brady

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #663 : Марта 10, 2025, 06:34:34 pm »
Clearly, there is a lot happening all at once. While I don't blame Trump for trying new things, some of them don't seem to be working, and I hope they either soon start to work, or that Trump will soon start to change direction. He has only those two choices.

He gave Putin some breathing room by suspending military aid and intelligence, perhaps hoping that Putin would react in a peaceful direction. Instead, Putin reacted in an aggressive direction, stepping up bombings (many will not be surprised at this of course, but perhaps it had to be tried?).

In my opinion it's time to start playing hardball with Russia again, and getting them to the negotiating table with a stick, rather than with a carrot or a peace gesture. While also not causing WW3. I don't think tougher sanctions that Trump is threatening will do the trick, especially with billions of dollars in Russian energy purchases still going on from the EU. 

Only time will tell if and when Trump will realize this, but I suspect (hope) it won't take him very long. He has big character issues mostly related to ego, but I don't think he is stupid.

(Unrelated to Ukraine, why he started picking on Canada is also hard to understand and appears irrational. That's clearly backfiring on the US, and so he needs to make amends as soon as possible and try diplomacy, the thing he should have started with.)

Still, things are in flux not only because of a new Administration in Washington that has made some misjudgments, but due to a lot of factors. Wlad, I read your commentary on China with great interest, and it reminded me that geopolitics requires us to put ourselves in the shoes of the enemy, to understand their perspective. Most Americans cannot understand why anyone would view America as a potential attacker or aggressor. But, Russia and China do view us that way, and view NATO and our defense alliances with Australia, NZ, etc. as threats. Good reminder!

Bob, by sheer coincidence I happened to buy some ceramic tiles last week and discovered that they are also manufactured in Ukraine! Surprising.


US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #664 : Марта 10, 2025, 07:20:16 pm »
I don't think Trump is a fool, but his worldview may be very different from mine. But the strong can afford many things that the weak cannot, and the weak must show miracles of resourcefulness in order not to anger the strong and get what they want.

Perhaps Trump is deliberately showing favor to putin and giving too much "in advance" (is it really that much?) so that later he will have grounds to strike at russia, demonstrating to the whole world that he is fair, if russia continues to behave as it does now? I'm not sure that Trump misjudges russia's capabilities.

Zelensky has last chance to repair relations with US in Riyadh, the Times writes. https://www.thetimes.com/article/a52a61dc-bcef-461e-9b27-291f0dbef89d

But it seems to me that this is a very dangerous self-deception if Zelensky and those who stand behind him really do not understand that there is no person more toxic for Ukraine than Zelensky.

It looks like the German Bild also knows about this: The US does not plan to resume aid supplies to Ukraine until President Volodymyr Zelensky resigns. "Donald Trump is blackmailing Zelensky with weapons supplies, trying to force him to step down as president and hold elections in Ukraine" https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/ukraine-trumps-perfider-plan-waffen-erst-wenn-selenskyj-weg-ist-67cdbb11bc5cf75105f37540

I think the russians will drag out the peace talks as long as possible because the ideal situation for them is when Trump stops aiding Ukraine and Zelensky remains president. Why do they need someone more competent in this position? I also prefer when my opponent in court is represented by a stupid intern, not an experienced partner of a law firm.

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #665 : Марта 10, 2025, 08:23:39 pm »
russia’s glide bombs were unstoppable – but Ukraine has made them useless, writes The Telegraph. Signal-jamming techniques seem to have given Ukrainian forces fresh impetus just as the US suspended military aid. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/03/10/russias-glide-bombs-unstoppable-ukraine-made-them-useless/

Of course, this statement is greatly exaggerated, but there is a certain result. But for Western high-precision projectiles and bombs the same rules apply.

Today, for the first time in many months, the russians launched an A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, most likely because Ukraine, without intelligence from the US, will not be able to shoot it down. Perhaps in the near future, russian missiles, which have also been absent for some time, will be flown en masse to Ukraine.
https://expres.online/podrobitsi/rosiya-pidnyala-u-povitrya-rozviduvalniy-litak-a-50-vpershe-za-ponad-pivroku

KD8ZM-Brady

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #666 : Марта 10, 2025, 09:37:30 pm »
Perhaps Trump is deliberately showing favor to putin and giving too much "in advance" (is it really that much?) so that later he will have grounds to strike at russia, demonstrating to the whole world that he is fair, if russia continues to behave as it does now? I'm not sure that Trump misjudges russia's capabilities.

That had occurred to me, as was implied in my last comment. Trump offers an olive branch, Putin responds like the Russian KGB agent that he is, then Trump uses Putin's reaction as a justification for clamping down on him. It's possible. ??

Zelensky and those who stand behind him really do not understand that there is no person more toxic for Ukraine than Zelensky.

It looks like the German Bild also knows about this: The US does not plan to resume aid supplies to Ukraine until President Volodymyr Zelensky resigns. "Donald Trump is blackmailing Zelensky with weapons supplies, trying to force him to step down as president and hold elections in Ukraine"

Zelensky was such a darling of the media for so long in the West, that most of them haven't adjusted to the new reality of his being a millstone around Ukraine's neck, due to his inflexibility and tendency to impudently demand things from those over whom he has no leverage. Not to mention his foolishly campaigning for Trump's opponent last fall.
As far as Trump trying to force Zelensky out: That's what Trump was trying to do by belittling and tariffing Justin Trudeau of Canada, and it has had the opposite effect, causing Canadians to rally around the Liberal party against a common enemy, Trump. So hopefully what Trump is doing with Ukraine will be better thought-out than what he did with Canada!

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #667 : Марта 10, 2025, 11:14:29 pm »
This was posted on today on r/CounterIntel_Foreign

No paywall:

https://archive.ph/2025.03.07-170055/https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/03/russia-ukraine-war-status/681963/

Comments?

The russian economy may be as weak as it is, but russia is fighting with its own resources, and Ukraine is completely dependent on the support of the US and Europe. We are already seeing the results. By the time russia runs out of resources to continue the offensive and stops, Ukraine may already have ceased to exist.

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #668 : Марта 10, 2025, 11:21:28 pm »
Zelensky was such a darling of the media for so long in the West, that most of them haven't adjusted to the new reality of his being a millstone around Ukraine's neck, due to his inflexibility and tendency to impudently demand things from those over whom he has no leverage. Not to mention his foolishly campaigning for Trump's opponent last fall.
As far as Trump trying to force Zelensky out: That's what Trump was trying to do by belittling and tariffing Justin Trudeau of Canada, and it has had the opposite effect, causing Canadians to rally around the Liberal party against a common enemy, Trump. So hopefully what Trump is doing with Ukraine will be better thought-out than what he did with Canada!

Among some part of the population of Ukraine there was indeed a short-term effect of consolidation with Zelensky, but what does it mean for the country? This is an internal and extremely weak resource. None of these people joined the army or made the economy stronger under the influence of these feelings.

Comparing Ukraine and Canada is also incorrect. Very different countries in very different conditions. Canada has a new prime minister - Mark Carney, who headed to the United States for a degree in economics at Harvard University, before pursuing a master’s degree and doctorate in economics from Oxford University.

His career was similarly globe-trotting. He spent 13 years working for Goldman Sachs, traveling between the firm’s offices in London, Tokyo, New York and Toronto, according to a profile from the Bank of Canada, which he joined in 2003.

By 2008, he was serving as governor of Canada’s central bank, stepping into the job as the world plunged into the Great Recession. During his campaign to lead the Liberal Party, Carney pointed to this time as evidence of his experience navigating crises, saying on his website he had helped protect jobs and stabilize the Canadian economy.

He did well enough that by the time he finished his five-year term, he was scooped up by the Bank of England to be its governor — the first non-British person to hold the position. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/10/business/mark-carney-canada-pm-profile-intl-hnk/index.html

I don't think this guy will do any harm to Canada compared to Trudeau. There are no people of this level in Ukraine at all.

KD8ZM-Brady

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #669 : Марта 11, 2025, 01:39:11 am »
It could be a language issue but I was only comparing how Trump trying to humiliate Canada had backfired on him, and thinking his humiliation of Zelensky could do likewise. I agree there is no comparing Canada and Carney with Ukraine and Zelensky.

N0TZU

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #670 : Марта 11, 2025, 07:38:08 pm »
The russian economy may be as weak as it is, but russia is fighting with its own resources, and Ukraine is completely dependent on the support of the US and Europe. We are already seeing the results. By the time russia runs out of resources to continue the offensive and stops, Ukraine may already have ceased to exist.
Agreed.

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #671 : Марта 11, 2025, 11:12:58 pm »
That had occurred to me, as was implied in my last comment. Trump offers an olive branch, Putin responds like the Russian KGB agent that he is, then Trump uses Putin's reaction as a justification for clamping down on him. It's possible. ??
Looks like we were right!

The United States “will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine,” the US and Ukraine said Tuesday in a joint statement about their meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Kyiv also “expressed readiness to accept the US proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the russian Federation,” the statement said.

“The United States will communicate to russia that russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace,” it said.

The two sides also agreed to conclude a rare minerals deal “as soon as possible” to expand Ukraine’s economy and guarantee the country’s long-term security.

Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak, who is representing Ukraine at the talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, said Tuesday that “the meeting with the US team started very constructively.” “We are working to bring about a just and lasting peace,” he added. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/11/world/ukraine-us-talks-saudi-arabia-intl/index.html

The Americans not only showed another "victory" on the path to peace and threw the ball onto russia's court, but also managed to pull out of the shadows and show who really makes decisions in Ukraine.

Perhaps the Ukrainians discussed the terms of personal guarantees and whether they would be left with the stolen money, but we will find out about this much later.

For now, the situation remains uncertain, although rapidly developing.

russia said dozens of drones were launched at Moscow on Tuesday in what it said were “enemy” attacks, using its preferred euphemism for Ukraine, hours ahead of critical talks between US and Ukrainian officials. If confirmed, the attacks would represent one of the largest on Moscow since russia’s invasion of Ukraine. russian officials said one person was killed and three wounded in the Moscow region after at least 69 drones were destroyed while flying toward the city, according to state-run news agency TASS.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/11/europe/ukraine-moscow-drone-attack-intl-hnk/index.html

Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, reported on the unprecedented scale of the drone attack on the Moscow region. According to him, these strikes create a certain context for the negotiations in Saudi Arabia and serve as a signal to the russian leadership. https://news.bigmir.net/ua/ukraine/10018752-v-snbo-rasskazali-kak-ataka-dronov-na-moskvu-svyazana-s-peregovorami-v-saudovskoj-aravii

Considering that this massive drone attack did not cause significant damage to russia, it seems to me that this only gives russia grounds to once again declare that Ukraine does not want peace, and not only did not cause panic among russians, but it allows propaganda to explain to russians why russia should continue to fight.

Moreover, the russians continue to develop their offensive and may soon liberate the Kursk region and seize some more Ukrainian territory, after which they may agree to peace on terms favorable to them.

N0TZU

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #672 : Марта 12, 2025, 02:02:11 pm »
Welcome news indeed, especially that recent US military support is reportedly back on again. I hope a ceasefire is imminent followed by a negotiated peace.

However it isn’t clear to me why Putin would stop now while he is winning territory (slowly) on the battlefield,  but we don’t know what has been offered by Trump to do so, and that could make all the difference.


KD8ZM-Brady

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #673 : Марта 12, 2025, 09:49:22 pm »
I definitely felt a lot better about yesterday's news, than I had at any time in the recent past!

It seems like Ukraine and Trump can now start to work in unison, at least somewhat. I am breathing a sigh of relief.

Somewhere along the way, Russia started referring to Ukrainians as merely "enemies" and no longer "nazis." Is that an improvement in relations, or only a signal that the ridiculous "nazis" claim was no longer working for them? I suspect the latter - these are Russians, after all.

It occurs to me that if a cease-fire actually occurs, the US and Europe had better be getting additional munitions into place on the Ukraine side during the pause, as we all know that Russia will be reloading on their side during the pause.

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #674 : Марта 12, 2025, 11:20:20 pm »
Welcome news indeed, especially that recent US military support is reportedly back on again. I hope a ceasefire is imminent followed by a negotiated peace.

However it isn’t clear to me why Putin would stop now while he is winning territory (slowly) on the battlefield,  but we don’t know what has been offered by Trump to do so, and that could make all the difference.

I completely agree.

Poland has resumed the supply of American weapons to Ukraine through the POLLOGHAB logistics hub in Jasionka. The transfer of military aid for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is again operating normally. This was announced by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland, Pawel Zalewski. https://x.com/ZalewskiPawel/status/1899591996706074772

I heard the opinion why putin might agree to a peace agreement. On the one hand, putin has not achieved his goals, but he knows how to think rationally. The situation for him now is such that continuing the war could drag it out a lot, and given that he is an old, sick man, he may not see it through to the end. And when he dies, those who come after him will rush to reconcile with the West and he will go down in history as a loser. But if it is stopped now, he will go down in history as a winner. Of course, not the way he wanted, but still not bad. No matter what, the russians got a lot - at least plus five million white Slavic population, a lot of territories with resources, a land route to the Crimea, they made the Sea of Azov inland, they got control over a large part of the Black Sea. Ukraine lost at least ten million people and a quarter of its territory, not to mention material losses.

Vladimir putin has visited russia's Kursk region for the first time since Ukraine's incursion across the border in August last year. More than 1,100 sq km of territory taken by Ukraine in the region has been recaptured by russia, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claims. putin orders the russian military to "fully liberate" the Kursk region in the near future, reports say. He also says the Ukrainian soldiers there will be treated as "terrorists" rather than prisoners of war.

The head of Ukraine's military, Oleksandr Syrsky, has indicated that some of its troops are withdrawing from russia's Kursk region.

It comes as the White House confirms Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is going to Moscow for talks on a US-proposed ceasefire plan backed by Ukraine. It was agreed on Tuesday after Ukrainian officials held talks with the US. Earlier today, Trump said a ceasefire deal "would be 80% of the way to getting this horrible blood bath [to end]" https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c51ypekv9xwt

As Europe makes defense the bloc’s No. 1 priority, it’s bumping up against its own bankers. Defense industry executives, politicians and senior bankers alike are now calling for an urgent revamp of regulations and internal processes to make it easier for banks to quickly channel funds into arms manufacturers and military contractors. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-09/eu-banks-hit-esg-roadblocks-hampering-defense-spending

In the context of the halt in arms supplies from the US and only promises from Europe, the complex and uncontrolled situation on the domestic market in Ukraine makes the situation even worse. For example, for the first almost full two months of this year, the Defense Procurement Agency did not conclude a single new contract for the supply of ammunition. https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2025/03/10/7502026/

Therefore, there is a really high probability that in the event of a ceasefire, russia will stockpile weapons and prepare to continue the war, while nothing will change in Ukraine.

Instead, the Verkhovna Rada is preparing to adopt a law on the use of batons, stun guns, water cannons, firearms and other means by the National Guard against violators during restoring and protecting public safety. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/325450-verkhovnaya-rada-gotovitsya-prinyat-zakon-o-primenenii-natsgvardiey-dubinok-elektroshokerov-vodometov-i-drugikh-sredstv-k-narushitelyam

According to the law, the National Guard of Ukraine is a military formation. However, Article 17 of the Constitution of Ukraine states that the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military formations cannot be used by anyone to restrict the rights and freedoms of citizens.
https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/876-18#Text
https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/254%D0%BA/96-%D0%B2%D1%80#Text

That is, the main enemy of the Ukrainian government remains its own population, not the russians, and the Constitution has long had the status of toilet paper. Thus, the Zelensky regime has long surpassed the Yanukovych regime, and the war will certainly end with Ukraine becoming part of russia, since it will not differ from it in anything except the color of the flag...