Ukraine updates in English

[US7IGN]

This night there was another massive drone attack on Ukraine. In Kyiv, a couple of dozen drones were also shot down and there was no damage. In other places, a hospital and other buildings were hit. https://www.unian.ua/war/u-nebi-nad-kiyevom-shahedi-novini-kiyeva-12949980.html

After Trump's phone call with putin, it became the main topic of discussion among journalists. In russia, it is being celebrated as a victory.
Judging by some of the headlines today in russia, Moscow believes that the latest telephone conversation between Presidents putin and Trump went well - certainly for the Kremlin.
"putin and Trump agreed to work together on Ukraine resolution," concludes Izvestia.
"Record-long Putin-Trump call," declares Komsomolskaya Pravda. The paper's website adds: "As things stand russia has scored a diplomatic victory here."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjevg23enggo

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump spoke over the phone today, with both leaders describing the hour-long call as "very good" and "positive". Zelensky also said after the "very substantive" conversation that he believes lasting peace could be achieved "this year". The White House provided further details about the call and said Zelensky thanked the US for its support - particularly for Javelin missiles. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/clynp1nldmxt?post=asset%3A6450b28f-ebc7-4f38-8f0a-4cadb293ed0b#post

Earlier today, Ukraine and russia swapped 175 prisoners of war each, with Zelensky describing it as "one of the largest" exchanges so far
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cy7x36d0g6eo

The White Paper on the future of EU defence, presented today by the European Commission, contains a separate chapter dedicated to Ukraine and envisages a significant increase in European assistance, including the supply of military equipment and at least 2 million pieces of ammunition per year. This was stated today in Brussels during a press conference to present the aforementioned White Paper, by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaia Kallas. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3972384-es-planue-postacati-v-ukrainu-ne-mens-ak-2-miljoni-boepripasiv-na-rik-kallas.html

This is good news, but very late. By the time Europe can produce sufficient weapons, Ukraine may finally run out of people willing to fight.

In December last year, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine requested the Venice Commission to provide an expert opinion (amicus curiae) on the issue of alternative (non-militarized) service in martial law.

The Venice Commission provided a detailed analysis of international standards governing this issue. The Commission referred to Article 9 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and Article 18 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). Both of these documents guarantee the right to freedom of thought, conscience and religion, which includes the right to conscientious objection to military service.

The Venice Commission considers that the very nature of conscientious objection implies that it cannot be fully excluded in time of war, albeit States have a limited margin of appreciation, especially in case of a general mobilisation. However, it appears to the Venice Commission that under no circumstances may a conscientious objector to military service be obliged to bear or use arms, even in self-defence of the country. https://www.coe.int/en/web/venice-commission/-/ukraine-amicus-curiae-brief-on-alternative-non-military-service

But the problem is not only that Ukrainian legislation does not provide for alternative service during martial law, but also that many people do not understand that refusing to bear a weapon does not exclude, for example, the task of evacuating the wounded under fire. In this case, weapons are not needed and will only interfere.

[N0TZU]

I said earlier that programs like VOA also used the internet. Those are also being dismantled under Trump. For example those aimed at countering Chinese propaganda by supplying news and other information to people behind their firewall. It’s just stupid, there’s no other word for it.

See following article at the Washington Post.

https://wapo.st/41zLvYy

[N0TZU]

It’s being widely reported that the US database tracking Ukrainian children abducted by Russia was deleted. This was important not only for trying to recover them but also reportedly held evidence of those responsible that could be used in future prosecutions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/us/politics/trump-ukraine-abducted-children.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

[US7IGN]

Bob, you were right!

Britain would not deploy peacekeeping troops in Ukraine without security guarantees from the United States backing them up, a government minister said Thursday.

Armed Forces Minister Luke Pollard told Times Radio that Prime Minister Keir Starmer's plan for a "coalition of the willing" to police any Ukraine peace deal with russia depends on U.S. involvement — despite Donald Trump's insistence his country won't be directly involved in such a plan.
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-wont-deploy-troops-ukraine-without-us-support-says-minister-luke-pollard/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication

Italy, France, Spain and Portugal have not supported the plan of the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kai Kallas, to finance weapons for Ukraine for 40 billion euros, La Stampa newspaper reported. https://www.lastampa.it/esteri/2025/03/20/news/ue_aiuti_kiev_piano_fondi_5_miliardi-15062088/?ref=LSHA-BH-P5-S4-T1

The EU has decided not to confiscate frozen russian assets. Several EU countries have opposed the confiscation of $200 billion in russian assets. This was stated in the conclusion of the EU summit on March 20, writes Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/ru/es-ne-budet-konfiskovyvat-zamorozennye-rossijskie-aktivy/a-71987181

It looks like Europe is washing its hands of it...

[N0TZU]

It looks like Europe is washing its hands of it...

That’s very bad news.

Despite the dreams of Trump and the [always] short sighted isolationists in his party, it seems that Europe cannot presently project even a fraction of American military power into their own backyard, and probably won’t be able to for a decade or more. And it isn’t clear, to me at least, that their people will support the spending required, nor that they will be able to act in a unified manner without the US playing a central role. 

Then there is the problem of Europe irritating the Russian Bear just across the borders, so to speak, when Trump cannot be counted on to support them, let alone act according to the NATO charter, given his many statements about NATO, Russia and especially his actions in regard to Ukraine.

 Russia is reminding the EU of their vulnerability by damaging numerous telecom and power cables in the Baltic without firing a shot.

[US7IGN]

Today in Kyiv the weather is beautiful. It is warm again and the sun is shining. My training was not in vain and I learned to clear my head from war and other problems at least for the time when I walk down the street and watch the birds build nests in the trees and buds appear on the branches. For them there is no money, no states, no politics, because of which people kill each other with such zeal. Although those people who directly kill, as a rule, have neither power nor money.

Drone attacks continue and the greatest damage is inflicted where there is no strong air defense. For example, Kropyvnytskyi was attacked by twenty "shaheeds". At least ten people were injured in the Russian drone strike, including four children. Houses and railway infrastructure were damaged, trains are delayed. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cx2ew0vkx55o

At the same time, Ukrainian long-range drones attacked a strategic aviation airfield near the russian city of Engels (Saratov Region). According to preliminary data, they managed to hit an ammunition and fuel depot, and there were very large explosions. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cq6y10dv8z8o

russian President Vladimir putin has ordered Ukrainian citizens who are “illegally residing in russia” to leave by September 10, 2025. Since russia considers the occupied territories to be russian, this obligation, from russia's perspective, also applies to the occupied parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cjw2gzg6nvvo

[US7IGN]

Despite the dreams of Trump and the [always] short sighted isolationists in his party, it seems that Europe cannot presently project even a fraction of American military power into their own backyard, and probably won’t be able to for a decade or more. And it isn’t clear, to me at least, that their people will support the spending required, nor that they will be able to act in a unified manner without the US playing a central role. 

Then there is the problem of Europe irritating the Russian Bear just across the borders, so to speak, when Trump cannot be counted on to support them, let alone act according to the NATO charter, given his many statements about NATO, Russia and especially his actions in regard to Ukraine.

 Russia is reminding the EU of their vulnerability by damaging numerous telecom and power cables in the Baltic without firing a shot.

500 million Europeans are begging for protection from 300 million Americans to protect them from 140 million russians who have been unable to defeat 40 million Ukrainians for over three years

[N0TZU]

500 million Europeans are begging for protection from 300 million Americans to protect them from 140 million russians who have been unable to defeat 40 million Ukrainians for over three years

I share your scorn. In restrospect, certainly after the fall of the Soviet Union, and probably before, the US should have begun weaning Europe off of a NATO dominated by the US and the presence of numerous US forces.

Would it have mattered? I don’t know. Historically European voters haven’t supported large defense spending (notably excepting Poland). Unfortunately we can’t go back in time and rerun history with weaning.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

As I had said before, I knew Starmer was just grandstanding, trying to look like a leader, but only would act if the US did what we've already said we won't do. Cheap talk as usual from him Still, I'm surprised.he admitted so quickly that he was only kidding! This might be some kind of record.

If 500 million Europeans won't vote to support their own defense, then they deserve whatever they happen to get.
On the other hand, it's also obvious that Russia doesn't seem to be in any shape to be invading western Europe anytime soon. So Europe has plenty of time to prepare, if they can bear to give up some aspects of the welfare state in order to fund their militaries.

[N0TZU]

Historically the UK has spent the NATO “required” 2% of GDP on defense, and France spends similar amounts. They are the only European countries with nuclear forces and the ability to project at least some military force well beyond their borders. Yet they cannot seem to muster much will regarding peacekeeping or anything else in Ukraine for the future.

The 2% level was determined in the context of the US playing its traditional large role. It’s no doubt inadequate now with Trump and him perhaps setting a lower level of American involvement in European defense that may endure beyond his term in office. However it would be a serious mistake for the US to reduce involvement too rapidly without Europe being ready to engage Russia if necessary. Our economic and military security is fully intertwined with Europe (and Asia). “The economy” is global to a degree unrealized by most people.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Bob, there are many people (including me) who believe that Europe will never actually stand on their own, unless the rug is actually pulled out from under them. With Russia having shown that they are a paper tiger, it's an opportune time to pull that rug out. After the Ukraine war, Russia will have time to rearm, and so will Europe. If Europe instead chooses to stick their heads in the sand like an ostrich, they will bear the consequences. I hope they are wiser than that, but I somehow can't envision Brussels pressuring politically-dysfunctional nations such as Italy, Greece, etc into contributing anything in proportion to their GDP. I imagine those weakling nations will end up free-riding on Germany, France, and the UK in the same way that all of Europe has been free-riding on the US.
Europe needs to arm up in terms of nuclear, also, because as I had stated previously, no US president of either party is going to shoot a nuke at Russia unless they first shoot a nuke directly at the US. We may have a doctrine or treaty that says we will, but we won't, and never would have.

[N0TZU]

Hi Brady,

I agree, but would characterize Russia as still very dangerous, though now perhaps more like a small juvenile bear rather than a full grown angry sow.

Will the more capable European governments consistently fund their higher defense budgets and accomplish substantially more military power and readiness before Russia rearms?  I have no doubt that Russian psy-ops, cyber-ops, disinformation and propaganda machinery will be running 24/7 to thwart it.

As I mentioned previously I agree that Europe must now consider acquiring nuclear weapons. It’s a fraught thing, with proliferation, terrorist concerns and historical enmity. For example would France accept a nuclear armed Germany?

[N0TZU]

Here is something almost unbelievable, but unfortunately it’s not fiction.

A report about what Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Special Envoy, said in a recent Tucker Carlson interview about Putin, Russia, Ukraine and Starmer’s plan.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62zm4eqvp7o

At the end he gives away the game by musing about how it would be good if Russia and the US could sell gas and work on arctic projects together. So apparently it’s about business opportunities, and a return to the old Big Powers way of ruling the world for profit.


Note: I tried to find a transcript of the interview but couldn’t, so the best I could find so far was this article.

[US7IGN]

and probably before, the US should have begun weaning Europe off of a NATO dominated by the US and the presence of numerous US forces.

Wait, wasn't dominating Europe one of the US's global goals as a global superpower?

[US7IGN]

So Europe has plenty of time to prepare, if they can bear to give up some aspects of the welfare state in order to fund their militaries.

Europe has created a weak society of lazy and illiterate dependents who live well on benefits. As a manager, I see such an organization of life in the country as unacceptable. By analogy with companies, this can only lead to bankruptcy and absorption by a stronger competitor. The development of weapons production, in addition to strengthening military power, will also lead to an increase in the number of jobs and the economy as a whole due to related industries. If you do not have resources that you can sell (this is not about Europe) and cannot seize the resources of others (this is also not about Europe), then the only way to increase the wealth and strength of your country is to develop the means of production and create material values. However, the brilliant Ray Dalio not only described in detail the development cycles of states, but also explained why this happens in his book - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail.

However, in his opinion, the United States is not in the best condition now either.
https://economicprinciples.org/downloads/DalioRay_Power_Index_Appendix.pdf