Ukraine updates in English

[KD8ZM-Brady]

I echo Bob's sentiment. You obviously have a high tolerance for stress and uncertainty (which is the essence of stress) beyond what most of us have.

"There are no great men, there are only great challenges, which ordinary men like you and me are forced by circumstances to meet." - Bull Halsey
I only disagree with Halsey to the extent that meeting those challenges is what makes a man great. Wlad, you are meeting the challenges.

Grenell's statement that the nuclear weapons never belonged to Ukraine, is absurd. Possession is nine tenths of the law. Ukraine possessed them, that's all that mattered... until they were negotiated away with two of the signatories (US and Russia, perhaps others as well) agreeing in bad faith. I'm sure Clinton thought, "we'll agree to this and hope we never have to enforce it, at least not on my watch." He knew we never would enforce it. And, he got kudos at the time for reducing nuclear proliferation. In other words, the same thought process that is behind Article 5: We've agreed to it for political reasons and for keeping up appearances, but we were never going to abide by it in the event it risks a nuclear conflict. 

[US7IGN]

Wlad, I’m often so disturbed by reading your accounts that a must stop and continue later.

Merely walking along and nearly being abducted by thugs for the army, or being killed outright by a missile - I don’t know how you get through the day, or night. I suppose you do because there’s no other choice.

I often repeat that there is always a choice. But I don’t have an unambiguous, let alone correct, answer to this question. I have a strong sense of guilt towards my wife and children, who may consider me a traitor. My wife sometimes says that in Poland there are only two fools left who live without husbands, she and her friend. The others' husbands have long since arrived and they are living together. When I offer to sell the apartment and buy the opportunity to leave Ukraine for a bribe or try to cross the border illegally in the mountains on my own, she remains silent.

The reason is probably that I am very stubborn. Having made the decision to stay in Ukraine three years ago, I cannot accept that I was wrong, and I continue to bang my head against the wall of Ukrainian reality. However, I have also had some successes, and only God knows what will happen next. Faith in Him gives me strength and support that is not available to many people here, who are disappointed in everything and do not believe in anything. I should have died of cardiac arrest, but apparently God decided that I should live on. Perhaps I should continue writing. And this remains more important to me than work, although it is also a miracle. I met wonderful people there and it gives me the opportunity to support children in Poland, who are growing up there in a much healthier environment and receive a good education. Everything has to be paid for, and I pay with what I do. The war will end someday, and I hope that all the sacrifices were not in vain. I also don’t consider myself so weak as to give up now after everything I’ve been through.

[US7IGN]

Yesterday and today there were again several large drone attacks in Dnipro, Kharkiv and Poltava. Much destruction and casualties among the civilian population.
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-regions/3975279-unaslidok-ataki-droniv-u-dnipri-postrazdali-troe-civilnih-poskodzeni-ponad-desatok-bagatopoverhivok.html
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-ova-ataka-droniv-vluchannia-promzona-poltava/33362268.html

The heating was also turned off in Kyiv ahead of schedule. Fortunately, it’s +15C outside during the day and it’s not very cold in the apartments.

I have ordered parts for the bike and plan to start riding it again, although cyclists are regularly targeted by man hunters. This was even noted by the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets.

“Recently, at least 3 videos have been posted in the media where cyclists are hit by a car and then people in uniform use force and put these cyclists in cars. I would like to emphasize that such actions are unacceptable and require a response,” he said. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/326313-dmitriy-lubinets-otreagiroval-na-video-gde-sotrudniki-ttsk-sbivayut-velosipedistov-i-pomeschayut-ikh-v-busiki

He stated that human rights violations by employees of territorial recruitment and social assistance centers have become widespread.
Among the most egregious cases, Lubinets named:
Physical violence and frequent cases of beatings of citizens. There are situations when groups of people are forcibly detained on the streets, in shopping centers, near the metro, using brute physical force.
Beating people on the roads. There are reports of cases when employees of mobilization centers deliberately cause road accidents in order to forcibly stop cyclists or motorcyclists.
The Commissioner's office also records cases of violations of the law by employees of mobilization centers, such as:
Deprivation of the right to legal protection. Employees of mobilization centers do not allow lawyers to visit detained persons, preventing them from exercising their legal rights.
Concealment of information about detained citizens. Relatives and human rights activists cannot obtain information about the whereabouts of detainees, which is a direct violation of human rights.
Denial of access to representatives of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Commissioner for Human Rights. Due to denial of access, they cannot exercise control over the observance of the rights of detainees, which hinders the effective protection of citizens.
Forced signing of documents. There is extensive evidence that people are forced to sign summonses or other documents without explaining their content and legal consequences.
Detention without proper grounds. There are known cases when mobilization measures were applied to persons who have legal grounds for postponement or are not subject to mobilization at all (students, people with disabilities, citizens caring for seriously ill relatives, etc.).
Interestingly, the proposal to hear him in parliament was not supported by the deputies. https://censor.net/ua/news/3543401/lubinets-zrobyv-zayavu-schodo-vypadkiv-porushennya-ttsk-prav-lyudyny

Although sometimes law enforcement agencies still react. Employees of the State Bureau of Investigation reported the suspicion of the deputy head of the Vinnytsia United City Territorial Center for Recruitment and Social Support and her former subordinate for beating a conscript man.
On September 12, 2024, a man came to the Center and received a summons. He had a valid reservation, since he worked at a critical infrastructure enterprise. While in the institution, he was sent to the deputy head.

The official was dissatisfied with his behavior and began to force him to sign the conscript questionnaire and refuse the reservation. After the man did not agree to such actions, she hit him on the head, and then began to strangle him.

Another serviceman, at that time a subordinate of the official, was also in the office, who punched the victim at least three times in the face and head. After the beating, the man's phone was taken away. https://dbr.gov.ua/news/dbr-povidomilo-pro-pidozru-posadovici-vinnickogo-om-tck-ta-sp-ta-ii-pidleglomu-cherez-pobittya-gromadyanina

But this fate usually befalls poor people. Businessman, lawyer and former Kyiv City Council member Denys Komarnytsky, who is wanted on suspicion of corruption, was able to leave Ukraine with the help of law enforcement officers. He is accused of organizing the illegal allocation of land plots in Kyiv for development with the involvement of city council members.

Komarnytsky himself denies the charges and claims that he is abroad "on legal grounds" and is visiting his family, who fled the war.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cp8y0pln528o

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Wlad, what you are describing is near to being anarchy. It makes me wonder who is in charge, or if anyone is. Keep a low profile and resist the urge to ride that bike.

[N0TZU]

Wlad, what you are describing is near to being anarchy. It makes me wonder who is in charge, or if anyone is. Keep a low profile and resist the urge to ride that bike.

I agree with Brady, don’t make yourself a more tempting target for these criminals.

[US7IGN]

I agree with Brady, don’t make yourself a more tempting target for these criminals.

The main thing is not to confuse who the bandits are.

For a week now, videos have been appearing on social networks showing mysterious vans with the captions “military lawyers” and a phone number.

One of them had this story. This car was parked near one of the mobilization centers, which caused a big stir. A lot of police arrived and blocked the road. There was a crush involving the police, mobilization center workers and unknown people. Some were detained by the police, some were taken away by ambulance. The windows of the van were broken and it was also taken away. The police said that they received a report about a suspicious car, but of course nothing dangerous was found.
https://focus.ua/uk/ukraine/699726-incident-z-tck-u-kiyevi-ye-postrazhdaliy-vid-sutichki-detali?utm_source=ukrnet_news

In one of the videos with these vans they say that in Kyiv, if you are caught by workers of the mobilization center or the police, you can contact the company and they will immediately send several vans with strong guys to the place. The vans will have the inscriptions “military lawyers”. And they will pick you up from the mobilization center and take you wherever you want. This service is paid - about 3-4 thousand dollars. That is, in order not to pay the mobilization center, you can pay the bandits who will save you from the mobilization center.

The Ukrainian National Bar Associations stated that there is neither a “military bar” nor persons with the legal status of “military lawyers” in Ukraine and it has nothing to do with it. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/326976-v-naau-zrobili-zayavu-pro-tak-zvanikh-viyskovikh-advokativ-na-mikroavtobusakh-yaki-za-groshi-vidbivayut-lyudey-u-ttsk

Well, that was to be expected. The state is rapidly losing its legitimacy and monopoly on force. If the laws are bad and the state itself does not observe them, then others will not observe them either. If the state uses the law of force instead of the force of law, then this may lead to others responding to force with force. Now tell me how this is different from 2014, when Maidan Uprising https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan happened? Except that now the population has many more weapons and even less desire to obey the authorities.

And such clashes will happen more often. In the Khmelnytsky region, a fight broke out between workers of the mobilization center and civilians, even women were injured. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/postrazdaly-navit-zinky-na-khmelnychchyni-stalasia-masova-biyka-miz-pratsivnykamy-ttsk-ta-tsyvilnymy-2797689.html

At the same time, the court acquitted one of the heads of the mobilization center, who was unable to fulfill the mobilization plan. He was unable to fulfill the mobilization plan due to the lack of a sufficient number of conscripts in the area who were suitable in age and health. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/326935-resursa-v-rayone-bolshe-net-sud-opravdal-odnogo-iz-rukovoditeley-ttsk-kotoryy-ne-smog-vypolnit-plan-mobilizatsii

[US7IGN]

"The russian occupiers have begun using long-range drones in a new tactic. Instead of flying to the respective targets one after the other at intervals of a few minutes, the drones now cluster a few kilometers from the attack sites at an altitude of several thousand meters, in order to then simultaneously strike the respective city," notes BILD military observer Julian Röpcke. https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/inferno-in-ukrainischen-staedten-putins-neue-perfide-drohnen-taktik-67e6c109ee15d54841c5bbd5

Apparently, this is also the reason why more and more drones are hitting houses and infrastructure objects. It's been especially bad in the Dnipro lately.
https://uatv.ua/uk/rozbyti-budynky-ta-znyshheni-mashyny-naslidky-udaru-rf-po-dnipru-pokazaly-zhurnalisty-freedom-video/
https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/03/28/novyna/bezpeka/rosiyany-masovano-atakuvaly-dnipro-dronamy-spalaxnuly-pozhezhi

russian President Vladimir putin has once again stated that Ukraine has no legitimate government and proposed introducing external rule in the country. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c89y9gj9e87o

In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that putin will die soon. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cq5zvz3d1nvo

russian forces are preparing to launch a fresh military offensive in the coming weeks to maximize pressure on Ukraine and strengthen the Kremlin’s negotiating position in ceasefire talks, Ukrainian government and military analysts said. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-spring-fighting-offensive-ceasefire-talks-49ee814cc4a8416c444ab7deae42488c

Poland gears up for war. Warsaw is already spending big on defense. Now it needs the manpower. Poland spent almost two centuries as a colony of Moscow and retains a deep-seated wariness of the country. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has kicked that worry into overdrive.

Warsaw is now NATO’s biggest defense spender at 4.7 percent of GDP, has the EU's largest army, and is spending billions of euros on jets, rockets, tanks, artillery and more. Now the frontline state is getting its population ready for war.

Were a full-scale conflict to erupt, Poland doesn't have the strategic depth of some other European countries, Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces General Wiesław Kukuła told POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-military-training-war-defense-russia-belarus/

Instead of relying on space to hold off the Russians, Poland is planning to more than double its military to half a million troops and to train millions of reservists, Tusk told parliament earlier in March. "By the end of the year, we want to have a model ready so that every adult male in Poland is trained for war, and so that this reserve is adequate for possible threats," Tusk said in parliament, adding that women can also sign up. The training will be voluntary, he said, seeking to offset concerns of a return to the country's hugely unpopular conscription policy, which ended in 2008.

For Poland, a high-income country with some of the strongest economic growth rates in the EU, the switch to battle-readiness will mark a shift in mindset — and many of its citizens are eager to get started.

Authorities plan to roll out short-term military training programs aimed at civilians with no prior experience, the Rzeczpospolita newspaper reported. These crash courses, lasting just a few days, will introduce participants to the fundamentals of civil defense, first aid and select military skills.

For those with prior military training, the government is offering targeted refresher courses designed to sharpen specialized skills, including firearms proficiency, combat medicine and land navigation.

Civilians looking for more comprehensive preparation can enroll in a month-long training program, available in both in-person and online formats.

Of course, not all Poles want to serve in the army, but perhaps the Polish authorities will take into account the Ukrainian experience and will have no problems with mobilization if necessary.

It is also unknown how many Poles will decide to leave Poland in the event of war, but this may be compensated by Ukrainians who decide to stay in Poland.

The European Union’s “temporary protection” scheme, which offers the bloc’s 4.3m Ukrainian refugees access to housing, employment and benefits, is due to expire next March. Europe will probably not imitate Donald Trump, who is considering revoking the status of Ukrainian refugees in America. But whether or not the eu’s programme is extended (for a second time), Ukrainians in exile are increasingly giving up on the idea of going home writes The Economist.

According to a recent study by the Centre for Economic Strategy (ces), a Ukrainian research group, only 43% of the refugees worldwide plan on returning, versus 74% two years earlier. For many, what matters is not only when the war ends, but how. The growing prospect of a ceasefire without Ukrainian membership in nato or the eu, along with continued Russian occupation of a fifth of the country, does not inspire much confidence. Many Ukrainians fear russia would attack again soon.

Ukrainians in Europe are putting down roots. In Poland the share of refugees, most of them women, working or actively seeking work has topped 67%. The government plans to let refugees exchange temporary protection for a residence permit valid for three years. The number that apply “might be a few hundred thousand, or it could be all of them,” says Maciej Duszczyk, the deputy minister of the interior.

Ukrainians contribute much more to Poland’s economy as workers and taxpayers than they cost in humanitarian assistance. In 2023, they added as much as 1.1% to gdp, according to Deloitte, a consultancy. Even a fresh exodus from Ukraine would not pose a problem. Poland’s unemployment rate is just 2.6%, tied for lowest in the eu. Without immigration, the country’s workforce would shrink by up to 2.1m people in the next decade due to ageing, says Andrzej Kubisiak of the Polish Economic Institute, a think-tank. Refugees from Ukraine help plug the gap.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/03/27/ukrainian-refugees-may-be-in-europe-for-good

[US7IGN]

Also, one of the main topics for discussion, besides the ceasefire, is the agreement between the US and Ukraine on subsoil resources.

The text of the agreement has not been officially published, but Ukrainian politicians and the media, as well as leading Western publications, are analyzing the agreement based on the texts they received from their sources. The general assessments of the new agreement proposed by the United States - shockingly negative - mostly coincide. One of the most important provisions of the agreement is that Ukraine must recognize previously provided assistance from the United States as debt.

According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the new agreement will give Washington broad powers over the Ukrainian economy, but the problem is that the Ukrainian side will probably not be able to accept these conditions.

The 55-page draft, a copy of which the publication has reviewed, is aimed at recovering billions of dollars in aid received from the United States from Ukraine. Trump believes that the United States has spent $350 billion on Ukraine, which significantly exceeds Ukraine's estimates - about $100 billion.

The new project also has no guarantees of security and future support.
https://www.wsj.com/world/trumps-new-ukraine-proposal-looks-like-an-offer-it-must-refuse-df63193c?mod=hp_lead_pos6
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ce989v8r28vo

Meanwhile, Ukraine's GDP grew by 1.1% in the first two months of 2025. While in the first two months of 2024 by 3.6%. The growth rate slowed down more than three times. There are reasons to believe that there are no prospects for noticeable economic growth rates now.

This happened because the power of the main driver of growth - stimulation from the state budget - was exhausted. The growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2023-2024 occurred primarily due to the "budgetary impulse", a significant part of which was provided by international financial assistance. It created demand and supported consumption, which were the key drivers of economic growth at that time.

The budget deficit at the level of 20-24% of GDP fulfilled its function - thanks to the budget impulse, there was renewed growth after the GDP fell by 29% in 2022. But the budget impulse cannot provide a greater acceleration of growth rates.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/blog/1059701.html

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Glad to hear that Poland's defense readiness drive is not just rhetoric or a passing fancy, as it is in western Europe. They are serious! A strong military is the only thing that could deter Russia from attacking. Finland and Poland will give Russia something to ponder.

[N0TZU]

Congratulations to Poland for taking the necessary steps to defend themselves. Also for recognizing that the Ukrainian refugees are a considerable net positive for their economy. I hope the rest of Europe follows their example.

[N0TZU]

What is happening now with the cease fire discussions sounds like a squeeze play. Putin is supplying relentless military pressure which Trump is not doing anything about except taking advantage of it to squeeze more mineral and financial concessions out of Ukraine.

Stated another way, in this situation Putin is difficult to bully, but Ukraine is easier to bully. Why would Trump do that? Because he “gets something” for US (his) assistance, and applying maximum leverage to win a negotiation is what he does. That this situation is fundamentally not a business negotiation at all seems to make no difference to him, if he even recognizes it.

(Related- Greenland and Canada as takeover targets).

[KD8ZM-Brady]

No one knows what Trump is trying to do, even if they think they do. From a strictly "actions speak louder than words" standpoint, he is saying the same thing with words, that Biden was saying with inaction: the US isn't willing to risk war with Russia.
Meanwhile, as I predicted some time ago, Starmer and Macron have now admitted that they are a coalition of the (un)willing. https://www.newsweek.com/nato-allies-reverse-course-ukraine-troop-deployment-plans-2051211

[N0TZU]

Yes.

I don’t blame them for reconsidering, given that 1) They have (like the US) substantially drawn down their munitions stocks for Ukraine, 2) They need to drastically increase their defense capabilities generally since the US has become unreliable and has lost its resolve against Russian aggression, 3) The current Trump administration has been clear in words and deeds from their start that in essence they don’t view Ukraine as important strategically and therefore aren’t supportive of being any kind of backstop for EU peacekeepers, 4) That Trump has said he wants a friendly relationship with and to work with Russia on many fronts, and 5) Their traditionally more pacifist populations.

I believe that it was only the UK and France who were at least making such proposals . They are the only European nuclear powers and I don’t think that is merely coincidence.

We are now headed toward a very uncertain future where I believe that the probabilities of a large conflict arising have increased significantly. Generally, isolationism and breakdown of large alliances weaken security.

China is also of very high concern and the failure of America to strongly address their illegal expansions in the South China Sea over the last 25 years has encouraged them.

However, culturally China is much more entrepreneurial and attuned to making money through trade than the Russians have ever been, and a big war isn’t conducive to that. But the CCP under Xi, possibly for life, could become much more aggressive. Taiwan would be the flash point, and they are ramping up their defense expenditures.

[US7IGN]

Congratulations to Poland for taking the necessary steps to defend themselves. Also for recognizing that the Ukrainian refugees are a considerable net positive for their economy. I hope the rest of Europe follows their example.

Considering that I spent most of our savings and continue to spend most of my income on supporting my family in Poland, and there are quite a few like me, this is close to the truth. However, it is worth it, because a Ukrainian in Poland receives better treatment from the state than in Ukraine.

It's cold, rainy and foggy and people are starting to catch colds again because the central heating was turned off last week. It's unpleasant enough to travel on a bus where people are sneezing and coughing. It's doubly unpleasant when you spend twice as much time on the road because the roads are closed so that foreign politicians can go to Bucha again for a tour to mark the anniversary of the massacre. They would be better off going east where the massacre is happening on a daily basis on a much larger scale. The hypocrisy is really annoying.

Before Donald Trump returned, the United States was working with Ukraine to fight russia much more deeply than it seemed, the New York Times reports. The publication published a major investigation into "an extraordinary partnership of intelligence, strategy, planning and technology, the evolution and inner workings of which were known only to a narrow circle of people."

They point to controversies that angered and frustrated the Americans - the uncoordinated use of American weapons and attacks in general in the Kursk region, the attack and sinking of the russian flagship cruiser Moskva, and the failed counteroffensive in 2023, which went against the plan agreed with the Americans.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/30/world/europe/us-ukraine-military-war-takeaways.html

Trump said this weekend he’s “pissed off” with russian President Vladimir putin and warned that failure to reach a deal to stop the Ukraine war could result in secondary tariffs. He accused Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky of “trying to back out” of the proposed minerals deal.

The Kremlin has responded to President Donald Trump’s remarks about being “very angry” and “pissed off” with russian President Vladimir putin. “We continue to work with the American side, first of all, on building our bilateral relations, which suffered enormous damage during the previous administration,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a regular conference call. Peskov went on to say, “We are also working on implementing some ideas related to the Ukrainian settlement. The work is underway, so far there are no specifics that we would have to inform you about.” https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-presidency-news-03-31-25/index.html?t=1743446692222

Ukraine's GDP warrant falls by most in 3 years as truce prospects dim. Ukraine's GDP warrant on Monday was on track for its biggest daily losses since shortly after russia's full-scale invasion three years ago as hopes for ceasefire proposals with russia from U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to falter.

The declines mark a notable turnaround for Ukraine's debt, which rallied after Trump's election victory, but has now lost nearly all those gains as investors question whether Trump will broker a deal that benefits the country's economy. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ukraines-bonds-gdp-warrant-slide-ceasefire-proposals-falter-2025-03-31/

[N0TZU]

Considering that I spent most of our savings and continue to spend most of my income on supporting my family in Poland, and there are quite a few like me, this is close to the truth. However, it is worth it, because a Ukrainian in Poland receives better treatment from the state than in Ukraine.

Excellent point.

It’s good to be seeing more information become public about the more extensive and close cooperation between the US and the Ukraine in prosecuting the war. It was obvious that very detailed and timely intelligence information must have been regularly shared to allow well targeted strikes against valuable military targets within Russia especially. However not much more had been revealed than that, nor that there were more military advisors than the very small number of original “specialists”.

But these sort of secret operations is typical, no matter what countries are being discussed because of the danger of being drawn into the conflict.  Having a large number of advisors in a belligerent country is generally controversial in an open society because of the potential for larger involvement if some of them become casualties, hence one reason for keeping the fact from the public.

It’s sad that the reports some time ago  of American dissatisfaction with some of the Ukrainian strategic actions are apparently true. And, it’s stunning that dividing forces was part of the issue. That mistake has been repeated uncounted times from antiquity to the present, and one would think by now the lesson should have been learned, even by elected politicians.

I don’t know what to think about Trump’s reported frustration with both Zelensky and Putin. How much is true, how much is some sort of negotiating gambit, how much is only for show, and how much is simply typical Trump chaos?