Автор Тема: Ukraine updates in English  (Прочитано 211834 раз)

N0TZU

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Сообщений: 294
    • Просмотр профиля
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #960 : Августа 12, 2025, 04:15:14 pm »
I agree with Sonne’s analysis in the NYT.

The recent friction between Trump and Putin seems to have been like a lovers spat, to be quickly forgotten as they slice Ukraine into bits. It was always highly unlikely that Trump would stay angry with his BDF (Best Dictator Friend) for long.
« Последнее редактирование: Августа 12, 2025, 04:22:43 pm от N0TZU »

N0TZU

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Сообщений: 294
    • Просмотр профиля
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #961 : Августа 13, 2025, 04:05:34 pm »

US7IGN

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Сообщений: 2692
    • Просмотр профиля
    • US7IGN
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #962 : Августа 14, 2025, 09:47:35 pm »
Excellent column on the continuing failure of western sanctions and policies against Putin. (Gifted link)

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/opinion/trump-putin-ukraine-alaska.html?unlocked_article_code=1.d08.L8lJ.qqFwm4HKxpOP&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Thank you Bob!

Personally, I don't understand why the West thinks that russians have become worse off, or even if they live a little worse off, will this force them to speak out against their government? I have never heard them complain about the deterioration of living conditions. On the contrary, due to isolation and the injection of money into the economy, many people's lives have only improved. And this is a very big difference between russia and Ukraine. Even money stolen from the budget due to sanctions remains in russia and works for russia, while money stolen from the budget of Ukraine is immediately withdrawn from Ukraine.

And in general, it seems to me that the guy is talking about what I wrote a couple of years ago.
« Последнее редактирование: Августа 15, 2025, 12:35:47 pm от US7IGN »

N0TZU

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Сообщений: 294
    • Просмотр профиля
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #963 : Августа 15, 2025, 01:00:29 am »
Yes, you’ve been making the same points for some time. I thought you’d like to see them echoed in the column.
« Последнее редактирование: Августа 15, 2025, 01:25:54 am от N0TZU »

US7IGN

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Сообщений: 2692
    • Просмотр профиля
    • US7IGN
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #964 : Августа 15, 2025, 12:25:42 pm »
Although no drones or missiles have been heard in Kyiv recently, russia and Ukraine have been actively exchanging drone airstrikes. Notable is the increase in strikes on russian oil refining facilities.
https://babel.ua/news/120555-stali-vidomi-podrobici-zustrichi-trampa-i-putina-na-alyasci

Also Ukrainian drones attacked an oil pumping station of the Transneft Druzhba oil pipeline in the Bryansk region.
https://www.unian.ua/war/udari-po-rf-droni-urazili-naybilshiy-vuzol-naftoprovodu-druzhba-13096314.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news

russia plans to produce 79,000 Shahed drones in 2025, including various modifications such as Geran-2, Harpy-1, Gerbera, and others. Production will take place on additional lines in Izhevsk and Yelabuga with an emphasis on replacing imported parts with domestic production, said the Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Major General Vadim Skibitsky.

The production of unmanned aerial vehicles, the preservation and expansion of production, primarily of Iskander ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, now allows the russian Federation to carry out combined strikes. First, various types of unmanned aerial vehicles are used, then either cruise or ballistic missiles. Sometimes ballistic missiles are used separately specifically against critical infrastructure facilities or against our armed formations, which involve a very quick strike and at a specific location. The main targets are air defense, aviation, critical infrastructure, and recently again the energy system.

One of the strengths of the russian Federation's armed forces is that they have operational reserves. They use them for rotations, reinforcements in the most critical areas of the front. And, accordingly, to replenish losses on the battlefield. The staffing of the armed forces of the russian Federation is quite high. For example, all the groups of troops are staffed by 98 percent with officers. In general, russia fulfills its recruitment plans every month by at least 105-110 percent. To date, about 67 percent of the 343 thousand that they planned to recruit for this year have already been fulfilled. And there is preliminary data that they have already decided to increase this figure by at least 15-17 percent. In general, today they have no problems with recruiting. They have a powerful social package, large payments just for signing the first contract. They announced partial mobilization only once - in the fall of 2022 and recruited 300 thousand. The rest are recruited without mobilization. That is, people go, they are also lured by benefits - for example, free education of children in higher educational institutions, attractive mortgage terms, etc. And, importantly, families in the russian Federation support this. https://suspilne.media/1089054-akso-putin-dast-komandu-pocnetsa-peregovornij-proces-skibickij-iz-gur-pro-plani-rosian-ta-ihnij-zapas-micnosti/

On August 12, at a meeting with journalists, President Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time announced the exact losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine per day - including wounded, dead and missing. According to the president, the number of russian soldiers at the front is three times greater than that of Ukrainians - the enemy suffers approximately the same number of losses. Zelensky said that on August 11, 2025, the russians lost 968 people. Among them, 531 were killed, 428 were wounded, and 9 were captured. At the same time, Ukrainian forces, according to him, lost 340 soldiers: 18 were killed, 243 were wounded, and 79 were missing. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3r4vy5gvx2o

In the first year of the full-scale russian invasion, the Defense Forces repeatedly outmaneuvered the clumsy russian army, relying on improvisation and the determination of soldiers on the ground. But within three years, the Ukrainian military has returned to a more rigid and vertical system of warfare that dates back to Soviet times, writes The Wall Street Journal. Officers and soldiers complain about a centralized command culture that often punishes initiative and leads to unnecessary casualties. Generals order frontal assaults with a slim chance of success and refuse soldiers who ask for a tactical retreat to save their men. The russian army suffers from much greater problems, because its command treats its men as disposable material. russia has advanced for two years at great cost. But Ukraine cannot make up for its losses as easily as russia. https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-russia-army-soviet-5fa8e1c9?mod=europe_trendingnow_article_pos5

The Telegraph is trying to find out why divided Ukrainians are refusing to fight for Zelensky. russian gains in the east are undermining morale while casting Kyiv’s manpower problems in stark relief.  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/14/why-divided-ukrainians-are-refusing-to-fight-for-zelensky/

You can look for reasons for this, but I'm simply stating a fact - it is impossible to defeat the russian army with such an approach, and I don't want to think that this is precisely the goal of the Ukrainian high command. Otherwise, we have to admit that it is insane, continuing to do the same thing without changing anything.

Although certain changes do occur from time to time, but they usually concern the worsening of the situation of ordinary Ukrainians.The Cabinet of Ministers approved a bill proposing to introduce fines for violating curfew. https://komersant.ua/uriad-hotuie-pokarannia-za-porushennia-komendantskoi-hodyny-detali/

War and a new life abroad are changing the plans of millions of Ukrainians. The National Bank, in its July Inflation Report, states that the mass return of migrants home is being postponed for several more years. According to updated calculations, a net outflow of about 200,000 people is expected in 2025 and 2026. Previously, it was predicted that population growth would begin as early as 2026. A prolonged outflow of population will create a labor shortage, which will slow down the economic recovery and push up wage growth. This, in turn, will increase inflationary pressure. https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/IR_2025-Q3.pdf?v=14

US7IGN

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Сообщений: 2692
    • Просмотр профиля
    • US7IGN
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #965 : Августа 15, 2025, 01:11:47 pm »
The main event for Ukraine, and perhaps for the whole world, today is the meeting of the American and russian presidents in Alaska.

When they meet, analysts specializing in russia and Ukraine from the United States are unlikely to be there, because they simply aren’t there. The negotiations with Moscow were led by real estate developer Steve Witkoff, a foreign policy newcomer, while career experts were suspended, belittled, and forced out of their jobs, the Financial Times wrote. https://www.ft.com/content/89f39aea-30dd-4481-93c8-842576dff3fc

Donald Trump is preparing to offer Vladimir putin access to rare earth minerals to incentivise him to end the war in Ukraine. A number of money-making opportunities for putin will include opening up Alaska’s natural resources to Moscow and lifting some of the American sanctions on russia’s aviation industry, The Telegraph can reveal. Proposals include giving putin access to the rare earth minerals in the Ukrainian territories currently occupied by russia. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/08/13/trump-to-present-minerals-deal-to-putin-in-alaska/

Ahead of the summit, Trump says putin won't "mess around with me", while russia's foreign minister says "our position is clear and unambiguous". Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is notably excluded from the talks, and has warned that decisions made in his absence will be meaningless. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c2kzn1nw1d4t

N0TZU

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Сообщений: 294
    • Просмотр профиля
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #966 : Августа 15, 2025, 03:23:58 pm »
“ You can look for reasons for this, but I'm simply stating a fact - it is impossible to defeat the russian army with such an approach, and I don't want to think that this is precisely the goal of the Ukrainian high command. Otherwise, we have to admit that it is insane, continuing to do the same thing without changing anything.”

It seems insane to me whether or not that is the goal - only more insane if it is.

“When they meet, analysts specializing in russia and Ukraine from the United States are unlikely to be there, because they simply aren’t there. The negotiations with Moscow were led by real estate developer Steve Witkoff, a foreign policy newcomer, while career experts were suspended, belittled, and forced out of their jobs, the Financial Times wrote.”

This is the modus operandi of the Trump administration and has been happening in every part of the executive branch. The total damage to the United States in almost every sphere domestically and internationally is literally incalculable. It will take decades to recover, and in some areas, like countering China, probably never will recover. (By the way, I call him Steven Witless.)

“Donald Trump is preparing to offer Vladimir putin access to rare earth minerals to incentivise him to end the war in Ukraine. A number of money-making opportunities for putin will include opening up Alaska’s natural resources to Moscow and lifting some of the American sanctions on russia’s aviation industry, The Telegraph can reveal. Proposals include giving putin access to the rare earth minerals in the Ukrainian territories currently occupied by russia.”

This is simply stunning, and I can only hope that it’s false.  Anyone with children, and involved in their upbringing, will recognize this as the parenting disaster of attempting to discipline by offering bribes for good behavior while doing nothing about bad behavior.
« Последнее редактирование: Августа 15, 2025, 03:45:55 pm от N0TZU »

N0TZU

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Сообщений: 294
    • Просмотр профиля
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #967 : Августа 16, 2025, 05:45:28 pm »
Almost no details directly about what was said or agreed to in the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska.

However, here is what Trump said afterward in an interview with Hannity

      Hannity: “If President Zelensky were sitting with us now, what is your advice to him for the next step forward? Do you think he can reach a deal with Putin, especially after today’s meeting didn’t produce a ceasefire?”
      Trump: “Make the deal. Gotta make a deal. Russia’s a very big power. And they’re not. But we’ve given Ukraine a lot. We’ve supplied them with weaponry, with everything they’ve needed. Now, it’s really up to President Zelensky to get it done. And I would also say the European nations, they have to get involved. If they’d like, I’ll be at that next meeting — they’re going to set up a meeting now between President Zelensky and President Putin and myself, I guess.”
      Hannity: “Would you join them in the room? I don’t know if I trust the two of them in there alone.”
      Trump: “They both want me there, and I’ll be there. You got to see it out.”

In the interview, Trump repeatedly stated that the burden of making peace rests with Zelensky, urged him to “make the deal,” and described himself as a facilitator willing to attend future trilateral talks.

So much for tough guy Trump. He told us beforehand that he would be very tough on Putin in the Alaska meeting and put in high tariffs and other penalties if Putin wasn’t cooperative. He even tweeted “High stakes!” on Truth Social as he traveled. But clearly that didn’t happen, and his comments to Hannity and his reported discussions with European leaders show that in Alaska he actually laid the groundwork for giving Putin everything he wants.

The “Get It Done” and “make a deal” part seems to be trading all of occupied parts of Ukraine plus portions of Donbas that aren’t occupied to Russia in return for a (worthless) promise by Putin not to invade again, according the NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/16/world/europe/trump-putin-ukraine-land-swap.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ek8.s1h-.10F9xQIbNBR6&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

So - true to form, Trump couldn’t stand up to his idol Putin for whom he had a red carpet, an Air Force flyby, and provided an escort of our best F35 fighters. He does seem to understand on some level that he screwed up because of his statements afterwards to minimize his role going forward.

Of course! Trump is undeniably brilliant at avoiding blame.




« Последнее редактирование: Августа 16, 2025, 05:57:14 pm от N0TZU »

US7IGN

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Сообщений: 2692
    • Просмотр профиля
    • US7IGN
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #968 : Августа 16, 2025, 09:13:22 pm »
It seems to me that from Trump's point of view, Ukraine is not important and this meeting was not about Ukraine. He and putin have completely different common interests and Ukraine is only one of the secondary items on the agenda. And Trump really skillfully shifted the responsibility for further actions and the conclusion of a peace agreement to Zelensky and the EU. Trump may have disappointed Ukraine supporters, but his goal is to impress his voters, who are more interested in reducing war spending, as well as all those who are afraid of the nuclear threat.

So I'm not surprised that nothing was signed, but we don't know anything about what was actually discussed and what decisions were made. Of course, this was the apotheosis of Ukraine's diplomatic failure, but let's be honest - we don't demand international relations skills from stand-up comedians, do we?

“We had an extremely productive meeting, and many points were agreed to,” Trump told reporters. “There are just a very few that are left. Some are not that significant. One is probably the most significant, but we have a very good chance of getting there. We didn’t get there, but we have a very good chance of getting there.”

Soon after his arrival in the US, putin’s grin as he peered out the window of Trump’s limousine said everything: after years of western isolation, he was back in the most powerful nation on earth. But putin’s isolation ended when his plane landed in Anchorage. With a red carpet welcome, a flyover of fighter jets and a round of applause from the US president himself, the message from Trump was clear: putin was back in from the cold. Their smiling greeting was hailed on russian state television as a “historic handshake.”

That became clearer when putin climbed into Trump’s armored vehicle, an unusual gesture that seemed to capture in an instant the russian leader’s return to global diplomacy. Even without any major progress, it was, for him, a victory. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/15/politics/takeaways-trump-putin-summit-alaska

I don't know what Trump and the USA will get, but the global victory of russia and Putin is already obvious, and what will happen to Ukraine will also soon become known. Maybe we will really see peace this year.

N0TZU

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Сообщений: 294
    • Просмотр профиля
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #969 : Августа 16, 2025, 10:30:55 pm »
As I've said before: Trump is either a Russian asset, or he is the best Useful Idiot that Russia has ever had. I think the latter is far more likely. An asset would require more detailed and disciplined thought and work than Trump ever does.

 Trump wasn't skillful at all in any of this, let alone in shifting blame and responsibility to Zelensky and Europe after such a public failure. That was merely his typical survival mode, blaming others for his mistakes and excusing himself from further participation, at least in such a primary way. I don’t believe for an instant that Trump was able to negotiate with Putin a win of anything of importance for the United States, or for anyone else, and probably never will.

Clearly, Putin knows exactly how to play Trump, and has shown who is the top and who is the bottom in the relationship. Perhaps there is an Amazon sale of kneepads and personal lubricants that Trump might want to consider.

The ostentatious and almost groveling welcome given to Putin was sickening. I wonder how much of it was ordered by the subconscious mind of a sad little boy trying desperately to impress his distant and horribly critical father.

I’m watching for a delayed angry bullying reaction from Trump, projected on people who cannot effectively fight back.
« Последнее редактирование: Августа 16, 2025, 10:58:32 pm от N0TZU »

US7IGN

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Сообщений: 2692
    • Просмотр профиля
    • US7IGN
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #970 : Августа 16, 2025, 10:58:52 pm »
BORIS JOHNSON: It's the most vomit-inducing episode in all the tawdry history of international diplomacy but it will have taught Trump this vital lesson…

What about Britain? What about Europe? When are we going to have the courage to do the same? This is our continent. We continually demand leadership from America – and yet when we get that leadership we don’t even have the guts to follow suit.

One day this war will end with a peace that protects Ukrainian freedom; but as Trump said in Alaska, the Europeans – led by Britain – will have to step up.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-15006137/BORIS-JOHNSON-Alaska-Ukraine-Putin-history-diplomacy-Trump.html

N0TZU

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Сообщений: 294
    • Просмотр профиля
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #971 : Августа 17, 2025, 12:21:18 am »
No argument from me. Europeans need to do much more to police their neighborhood.

There are some who think the Alaska meeting was just theatre to set up a Putin-Zelensky-EU meeting at which the real negotiations will take place. I think that is wrong.

I think that Europe is less of a concern to Putin than the US is. They don’t have the capacity as yet to produce enough weapons of the type and quantities needed by Ukraine, and in some important cases can’t produce them at all.

And then they have to consider whether erratic Trump and a feckless Congress would tire of the mess and refuse to provide large quantities of weapons and other matériel, even if purchased or needed for NATO. Especially so as the US deficit balloons and Trump Tax (tariffs) really bite into consumer pocketbooks.

I just paid 50% more for ground coffee than a few months ago because of Trump Tax.
« Последнее редактирование: Августа 17, 2025, 12:25:02 am от N0TZU »

N0TZU

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Сообщений: 294
    • Просмотр профиля

US7IGN

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Сообщений: 2692
    • Просмотр профиля
    • US7IGN
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #973 : Августа 17, 2025, 09:52:30 am »
It's difficult for me to comment on this. Yesterday we talked to a woman about this and she was very upset, she thought everything that was happening was very unfair. I think otherwise. Everything is fair.

Matthew 16:27 For the Son of Man is going to come in his Father’s glory with his angels, and then he will reward each person according to what they have done.

I believe that everyone gets what they deserve during their lifetime. If you smoke, you get lung cancer, if you don't study and work, you get poverty. As for expectations, it's even simpler. A lot of people expect something from others, but very rarely ask themselves on what basis they expect it? What did they do to get what they expected?
What Europe does for itself and its security is Europe's business, but we should be grateful for what it has done for Ukraine and Ukrainians. Someone decided that helping is the same as doing instead of you. But Ukraine as a state must realize that no one but it will solve its problems instead of it.

You can complain about Trump, but it seems the US got lucky with its first lady.

U.S. President Donald Trump's wife, Melania Trump, raised the plight of children in Ukraine and russia in a personal letter to russian President Vladimir putin, two White House officials said on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/world/melania-trump-sends-letter-putin-about-abducted-children-2025-08-16/

Anti-drone systems are currently being actively developed, but drones seem to be developing faster. All of these interceptors have shown effectiveness against slow, old models at low altitudes. Instead, russia is already switching to the use of high-flying jet drones, similar to cruise missiles that can only intercept large and expensive anti-aircraft systems. Only unlike cruise missiles, jet drones are many times cheaper and can be produced many times more.

I remain of the opinion that it is necessary to solve the cause of the problem, and not its consequences. I am inclined to associate the decrease in drone attacks in recent weeks not with anti-drone measures in Ukraine https://vechirniy.kyiv.ua/news/116075/ , but with successful attacks on their production and storage sites in russia. https://cripo.com.ua/news/war/drony-sbu-vrazyly-v-rosiyi-aerodrom-zberigannya-shahediv-v-prymorsko-ahtarsku-ta-vijskovyj-zavod-elektroprylad/

Western militaries should not depend on drones, given the problems that the Ukrainian armed forces are having with them, Rusi has said.

The think-tank report said that the war in Ukraine was dominated by the use of first-person view (FPV) drones in theatre and one-way attack (OWA) drones, helping conventional cruise and ballistic missiles for long-range strike campaigns.

Through the continued use of drones over traditional platforms like tanks and artillery, many senior figures in Western militaries, politicians, and journalists believe that previous military doctrines are outdated, Professor Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at Rusi, said.
https://www.forcesnews.com/ukraine/dont-rely-drones-win-future-battles-rusi-warns-uk-military

According to information published by the French Ministry of Armed Forces on August 11, 2025, the Directorate General of Armaments (DGA) awarded the PALADIN (Positioning and Autonomous Laser Assisted Detection in Near-space) framework agreement to French New Space company Infinite Orbits on August 8, 2025, for a maximum value of 50 million euros. The contract tasks Infinite Orbits with delivering a geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) inspection and surveillance service to the French Space Command (CDE) under the national Action and Resilience in Space (ARES) program. The PALADIN satellite, slated for launch in 2027, will build upon the company’s Orbit Guard platform and be supported by developments funded through the France 2030 investment plan coordinated by the National Center for Space Studies (CNES).
https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2025/france-seeks-to-safeguard-its-military-assets-across-space-orbits-with-paladin-satellite

N0TZU

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Сообщений: 294
    • Просмотр профиля
Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #974 : Августа 17, 2025, 08:03:36 pm »
Yes life on earth is not fair. Fairness is a human (or perhaps divine) construct that we strive to have, not a law of existence.

I agree that in general a person gets from life what they put into it (pithily summed up as “there is no free lunch”). Some people have bad luck through no fault of their own, and in that case how they respond to help themselves will largely determine their fate, though often they receive some assistance from others. Ukraine is in both categories I think.

I’m happy that Melania wrote to Putin about the children and hope that it helps their plight. First Ladies can be more powerful forces for good than is often realized.

You are correct. Defensive drones, and any defensive system, are always more difficult and a step behind offensive developments. “The best defense is a good offense” still applies and probably always will. One reason that the Reagan era Star Wars defensive system was never fully developed or deployed is that it’s always relatively easy and much less expensive to overwhelm such a defense with large numbers of incoming weapons and decoys. Even today the few such systems that exist are limited in scope for the same reason or can only handle less sophisticated incoming weapons. Nevertheless, defensive developments are of course still vital.

Ukraine has made great strides in attacking military and logistical targets inside Russia. They desperately need to acquire or produce much more powerful long range weapons or they will not catch up. I hope that Europe can address this somehow as the US becomes more insular, but it’s already late.

There is a tendency in all militaries to overemphasize the newest technology and yet not understand the best way to make use of it until having more experience with it on the battlefield. This is balanced by a tendency to cling to the old technologies and practices much too long. I’m sure we can both think of many historical examples of both.

Two other technology and related logistical issues that have become painfully obvious are lack of good battlefield and strategic communications free of foreign control, and intelligence gathering and analysis particularly from orbit, also free of foreign control.

« Последнее редактирование: Августа 17, 2025, 08:12:59 pm от N0TZU »