Ukraine updates in English

[N0TZU]

Some more thoughts, FWIW.

Yes, a few nuclear weapons wouldn’t be an effective existential defense against a tyrant who would accept the total destruction of one or two of his own principle cities as the price of his conquest. I believe this is one reason, along with overwhelming redundancy to get through defenses, for the much higher numbers that we see around the world.

Yes, India and Pakistan skirmish regularly along their disputed border, with occasional casualties. But neither is willing to launch a bigger invasion given the nuclear missiles aimed at each other. One can argue, (but can’t prove) that much worse conventional fighting has been averted by nuclear deterrence. This type of continual low level conflict might be the scenario for a small nuclear armed country bordering a rapacious Russia, which obviously doesn’t care if it loses soldiers. If it can wear down the will to fight and intimidate other small nations by such incursions then it will do so.

Nuclear weapons are not cheap however, and there are high ongoing costs and dangers requiring strict control. Their security must airtight to prevent any theft or accidental mishandling. Command and control must be absolute and fail safe such that none can be launched without order from the highest national command authority. All of this must be redundant and forever, surviving changes in governing party and administration.

Nuclear materials degrade over time so warheads must be taken apart regularly and refurbished. This means maintaining a native nuclear weapon industry with the attendant risks of terrorist material diversion or blowing up such a facility creating a radiation disaster. There will be the ongoing need to constantly procure the necessary raw fissile material from somewhere if not available natively through mining and refining with huge numbers of centrifuges. Supercomputers to simulate designs. And lastly, where does a small country explode their first bomb to verify the design works?

It seems that Israel is the only small nation so far to have achieved nuclear status, though they have never confirmed this. Most experts believe that their nuclear material was produced natively at Dimona where they have their reactors and nuclear industry but initially with a French reactor and probably some American help as well. The 1979 Vela detection incident in the southern ocean may have been a nuclear test explosion done with South African apartheid regime help or in partnership. It’s conceivable that this type of support from large nuclear powers could be replicated to help another small country become nuclear, but I doubt it. It’s not the 1960s and 70s anymore.

Could a small country simply buy nuclear bombs from a friendly nuclear power, and pay to have them refurbished? In theory yes, but what country would sell their most secret devices to another nation and maintain them considering the risk to themselves from that action? Friendly countries today could be enemies tomorrow.

The more I ponder it, the more I believe that effective long range conventional defense is the only practical answer for a small nation in the foreseeable future, and in alliance with large nuclear power, if possible, to provide a credible “umbrella”. This is another interesting discussion.

PS.

I doubt that Russia would allow any nation on their border to develop nuclear weapons.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Hello Bob. I "get" the high cost of nuclear weapons and agree with you on that. I suppose the financial analyst that I once was, and still have elements of  always compares it to the cost of alternatives and their effectiveness. To me, the "cost" of an entire country being rubble-ized by Russia (as Ukraine is experiencing presently) makes the cost of not developing a truly formidable deterrent force very, very costly - almost incalculably expensive, in fact. I think we agree on that, the only question is whether a conventional force is the better option, or a nuclear one. Pakistan, being half the size of Israel in the measure that counts (GDP) has taken (and somehow afforded) the nuclear option AND the conventional one, something that probably any country would have to do... after all, you don't respond to a small conventional incursion by launching a nuke! And Russia is very good at brinksmanship, evidenced by the drones appearing over the western European airports in past months, the drones flying just barely into Poland, moving the boundary markers in Georgia and the Baltic states, and so on. They are jerks, and it shows.

Obviously I don't know the answer to this conundrum of having to deflect an evil empire wannabe like Russia, and also making it practical and affordable. I'm not a military guy. But something tells me that the solution has to involve outside the box thinking, which the Europeans are particularly bad at, and made worse by their unworkable EU compact... can you imagine a system where it only takes one US state to veto legislation? We would literally get nothing accomplished., and that's the EU situation in a nutshell. They can't even agree to use (or how to use) impounded Russian assets to bolster Ukraine. It's crazy!! Bottom line: if the Baltic states are counting on the EU to protect them, they're in big trouble.

[N0TZU]

Hi Brady,

It certainly is a conundrum! I don’t know the right answer either and obviously there are far better informed and experienced people in such matters. It’s an interesting exercise to try to work out some basics about it here. I agree that if a country decides to have nukes they will still need a very strong conventional military able to project punishing power at short and long distances into Russia. Having that capability yesterday would not be too soon.

You’re completely correct about the EU bureaucracy and decision speed. Just look at Orban frequently throwing a wrench into the works. There is also the deep reluctance rooted in the horror of being the prime battleground for two world wars in less than 30 years.

However I’m encouraged by Germany finally realizing that they can no longer ignore the Russian Bear and taking large steps to improve their military, rather than completely rely on the US. This was helped substantially by Trump’s needling over many years but the main driver of finally taking action is the terrible object lesson in Ukraine which cannot be wished away.

 I saw a “60 Minutes” TV interview of the German minister of defense and was very impressed with his forthright description of the situation and actions to make large improvements. I think that would have been politically impossible just a few years ago. Speaking of such changes, I believe that eventually they will need to develop and deploy nuclear weapons.

[US7IGN]

Yes, a few nuclear weapons wouldn’t be an effective existential defense against a tyrant who would accept the total destruction of one or two of his own principle cities as the price of his conquest.

russians are always bluffing. They are like a bully at school - very rude until they get punched in the face. They will never use nuclear weapons because it would be the complete end for them. They are dumb but not stupid

Nuclear weapons are not cheap however

Did a broken and partially occupied country, millions of refugees, and hundreds of thousands of people killed come at a cheaper price?

Nuclear materials degrade over time so warheads must be taken apart regularly and refurbished. This means maintaining a native nuclear weapon industry with the attendant risks of terrorist material diversion or blowing up such a facility creating a radiation disaster. There will be the ongoing need to constantly procure the necessary raw fissile material from somewhere if not available natively through mining and refining with huge numbers of centrifuges. Supercomputers to simulate designs. And lastly, where does a small country explode their first bomb to verify the design works?

You should ask North Korea about this)

I doubt that Russia would allow any nation on their border to develop nuclear weapons.

Exactly! That's why you have to do something to live the way you want, not your neighbor.

[US7IGN]

You’re completely correct about the EU bureaucracy and decision speed. Just look at Orban frequently throwing a wrench into the works. There is also the deep reluctance rooted in the horror of being the prime battleground for two world wars in less than 30 years.

However I’m encouraged by Germany finally realizing that they can no longer ignore the Russian Bear and taking large steps to improve their military, rather than completely rely on the US. This was helped substantially by Trump’s needling over many years but the main driver of finally taking action is the terrible object lesson in Ukraine which cannot be wished away.

It seems that only Poland is actively working on its own security so far. Quietly and without pathos, they have bought a bunch of weapons and trained hundreds of thousands of reservists, while the Germans seem to be adopting Ukraine's experience in how to catch their own men. They probably need to negotiate with the imams now)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4tQylc1nuY&t

[N0TZU]

russians are always bluffing. They are like a bully at school - very rude until they get punched in the face. They will never use nuclear weapons because it would be the complete end for them. They are dumb but not stupid

They don't need to use nuclear weapons first. They might be overrunning a small bordering country with only conventional forces. Let's say that small country has two nuclear weapons and decides the existential moment has arrived. It hits Russia with their first nuclear weapon, destroying a major city. 1) Would the Russians stop and withdraw? 2) Would they just accept the nuclear attack, maybe two and keep going to seize the country? 3) Would they retaliate in kind with a nuclear weapon, perhaps leading to other countries launching against them and armageddon? Or 4) would Russia have never attacked in the first place because of the presence of nuclear weapons?

I would hope its 4. However I don't think we can say the probability of 2 is zero however, it depends on who is master of Russia at the time and how secure his position is.

Did a broken and partially occupied country, millions of refugees, and hundreds of thousands of people killed come at a cheaper price?

No, one cannot put a price on that. I think Ukraine should have kept at least some of the nuclear weapons it inherited from the Soviet Union. At the time there were something like 170 ICBMs and dozens of strategic bombers along with stored nuclear bombs. There would have been many problems because launch codes and processes were in Moscow but I believe that would have been overcome to place control with Ukraine.

You should ask North Korea about this

My point was that there is an entire expensive industry and attendant security to create and maintain forever, and a place to explode the test bombs. Democracies must take into account the opinions of their voters, and in a small country with no vast deserts, mountains or remote islands for testing, this can be a challenge. 

(N. Korea has native uranium deposits, mines them and then produces their own plutonium. They also spend hugely on the military to levels not likely to be tolerated in most countries. The regime doesn't care if they starve their population, or have radiation leaks and contamination, and the population cannot object to any of it without them and their family being sent to a labor camp to die eventually.)

Exactly! That's why you have to do something to live the way you want, not your neighbor.

Of course I agree with this, but with the awareness of what may happen, the point being that Russia will react badly to a bordering European state developing nuclear weapons, which could be just bluff along with hybrid warfare or concevably involving military strikes. There is precedent though, American nuclear weapons were stationed in Turkey during the cold war and some are widely believed to be stationed there today.

My opinion: If a country and their people believe that they need nuclear weapons in addition to strong conventional forces to deter Russia then they should pursue them.

[US7IGN]

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky met with President of Poland Karol Nawrocki in Warsaw today. During the meeting, they discussed the joint strategy of Warsaw and Kyiv, the economy, Ukrainian refugees, and complex historical issues. This is Zelensky's first personal meeting with his Polish counterpart. And it took place only four months after Nawrocki officially assumed the post of president, although Zelensky has repeatedly traveled through Poland during his foreign visits.

During the meeting with Zelensky, President Nawrocki presented the President of Ukraine with the publication "Documents of the Volyn Massacre" and said that 4.5% of Poland's GDP since 2022 has gone to support Ukraine. At the same time, when asked to comment on the significant contribution that Ukrainian refugees have made to the Polish economy, Nawrocki replied that this fact indicates that Ukrainians in Poland feel good, as well as that Poland has been open since 2022, having accepted over a million Ukrainians.

Karol Nawrocki, amid growing anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland, insisted that Zelensky first come to Warsaw and thank Poland for its support before he himself would consider a visit to Kyiv.
Nawrocki, a nationalist historian, has a long list of complaints against Kyiv. He accuses Ukraine of not considering Poland an equal partner, and criticizes it for not being grateful enough for taking in Ukrainian refugees and for providing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

History is another sensitive topic. Nawrocki accuses Ukraine of not acknowledging its responsibility for the mass killing of Poles in Volhynia between 1943 and 1945, calling it “genocide against the Polish people,” even though the Poles also killed and deported many Ukrainians.

So Nawrocki made the most of the situation to demonstrate his negative attitude towards Ukraine. Unfortunately, his opinions are shared by too many Poles, otherwise he would not have won the presidential election. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4ge0ww0dd4o

Meanwhile, more and more Poles are deciding to sell their homes and move to another country.
Some northern countries have been sending cash to Kyiv for years, but many Europeans don’t see why they should, writes Politico.

EU leaders reached a deal to borrow €90 billion on the financial markets to keep Ukraine afloat for the next two years. “We committed, we delivered,” boasted the President of the European Council António Costa. Beyond the spin, the pattern is clear. A divided bloc of European states argued for months in public and private over who should pay the bill, and it’s probably not settled yet.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine was facing a funding shortfall of €72 billion next year.

In Germany, 45 percent said they would support cutting financial aid to Kyiv, while just 20 percent said they wanted to increase financial assistance. In France, 37 percent wanted to give less and 24 percent preferred giving more.

Faced with splits between northern nations that are tiring of spending endless billions on Ukraine and others that never have done, Europe’s leaders opted for the easiest answer this week. And even that was almost too hard.

“We have a simple choice,” said Donald Tusk, Poland’s grim-faced prime minister, as he entered one of the most consequential European Union summits in a generation. “Either money today or blood tomorrow. And I am not talking about Ukraine only. I am talking about Europe.” https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-still-doesnt-want-to-pay-to-save-ukraine-european-council/

EU countries, on paper at least, represent a collective economic superpower compared to russia. The total combined GDP of the EU’s 27 countries’ stands at €18 trillion while russia’s GDP is €2 trillion. So even with this budget, the EU chooses to be greedy rather than strategic. Thus, nothing changes for Ukraine, except that more people will die and more territories will be occupied, unless the US and China intervene. Or the Ukrainians decide that enough is enough.

The attitude towards soldiers in the army is not always good and some commit suicide because of this, as discussed in the BBC investigation. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypp1jwjz1o

By the end of 2025, all four military units of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were created from the very beginning of the full-scale war under the brand "International Legions", should be disbanded. According to the plan of the General Staff, fighters, including foreigners, should continue their service in the assault troops.

Public opposition to this process has already begun. Some representatives of the legions say that the decision could lead to a significant reduction in the flow of foreign volunteers to the Ukrainian army. And possibly to its cessation altogether, which would have a bad effect on the reputation of the Ukrainian army.

There is also an opinion that they were inconvenient for the command because they showed Ukrainian soldiers that they could be treated differently and receive better logistical support. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1lrr87nnreo

Usually, workers at mobilization centers hunt Ukrainians together with the police, but sometimes there are failures in their coordinated cooperation. In Odesa, servicemen from a mobilization center were detained, suspected of beating a police officer. People joke that they don't know who to root for. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/348800-v-odesse-troe-voennykh-ttsk-izbili-politseyskogo-otkryto-proizvodstvo

putin tells BBC western leaders deceived russia and the West is 'making russia the enemy'. He also demanded that they be treated with respect and their interests be respected. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ce8np3pnljdt?post=asset%3Aeefdca90-232a-4b6c-9119-c622398764ce#post

The Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine, together with the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC), announced the readiness of the U.S.-Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund to make its first investments in 2026. The fund will focus on investments in critical minerals, energy, transport and logistics, information and communication technologies, and innovative technologies that ensure the resilience of supply chains and contribute to the economic security and well-being of the United States and Ukraine. https://rubryka.com/2025/12/18/amerykansko-ukrayinskyj-investytsijnyj-fond-vidbudovy-gotovyj-do-pershyh-investytsijnyh-proyektiv-u-2026-rotsi/

Ukraine announced the successful restructuring of its $2.6 billion GDP warrants, which will avoid significant post-war payments. The transaction will strengthen debt sustainability and improve the country's fiscal predictability. https://unn.ua/news/zekonomyt-derzhavi-miliardy-dolariv-u-pisliavoiennyi-period-ukraina-oholosyla-pro-uspishnu-restrukturyzatsiiu-vvp-varantiv

[N0TZU]

You’re completely correct about the EU bureaucracy and decision speed. Just look at Orban frequently throwing a wrench into the works. There is also the deep reluctance rooted in the horror of being the prime battleground for two world wars in less than 30 years.

However I’m encouraged by Germany finally realizing that they can no longer ignore the Russian Bear and taking large steps to improve their military, rather than completely rely on the US. This was helped substantially by Trump’s needling over many years but the main driver of finally taking action is the terrible object lesson in Ukraine which cannot be wished away.

It seems that only Poland is actively working on its own security so far. Quietly and without pathos, they have bought a bunch of weapons and trained hundreds of thousands of reservists, while the Germans seem to be adopting Ukraine's experience in how to catch their own men. They probably need to negotiate with the imams now)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4tQylc1nuY&t

Poland has been marvelous.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

I watched Donald Tusk make the "money now or blood later" statement two nights ago during my nightly European news viewing on DW. It was a very memorable statement! Reminded me of Churchill saying to Neville Chamberlain, " between war and dishonor you have chosen dishonor - and you will have war."

Wlad, I sent the completed manuscript a week ago, did you receive it?

Best regards and merry Christmas to you all.

[US7IGN]

Hi Braden! I received the file and am working hard to publish it. Amazon requires specific formatting which takes a lot of time and I want to publish the book by the new year.
Thank you very much! You did an extremely great job! The number of errors I have is still amazing)

Regarding Poland, things are not so clear-cut. On the one hand, regardless of political affiliation, all Polish leaders think first of all about Poland's interests. For example, in recent years, Poland has not only been purchasing imported weapons, but also restoring and increasing its own production. For example, the Polish company Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ) has begun developing a new version of the Krab self-propelled gun - Krab 2 and plans to significantly increase production of the current version of the self-propelled gun. Improvements in Krab 2 are based on the experience of operating the current version in a "high-intensity conflict". https://militarnyi.com/uk/news/polshha-rozroblyaye-novu-sau-krab-2-zavdyaky-dosvidu-ekspluatatsiyi-potochnoyi-versiyi-v-ukrayini/

This shows the great difference between Poland and Ukraine, which not only abandoned nuclear weapons, but also destroyed its own production, which remained from Soviet times - the production of missiles, aircraft, tanks and much more.

But Ukraine has become a victim of inter-party struggle in Poland. The party of the current president, Nawrocki, which is the opposition to the party of Prime Minister Tusk, accuses him of supporting Ukraine at the expense of Poland. I have seen many videos circulating on social media, where Tusk is accused of allegedly personally forcing other European leaders to agree to provide Ukraine with 90 billion euros, which the Poles have to pay for. Primitive manipulation and terrible disinformation, but we understand perfectly well who such propaganda is aimed at and what impact it has.

[US7IGN]

There are about a hundred drone attacks every night, some of which hit their targets. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/rosijani-zapustili-po-ukrajini-majzhe-sotnju-droniv-chvert-iz-nikh-spiniti-ne-vdalosja-podrobitsi-nichnoji-ataki.html

Next week will be frosty and I am sure the russians will decide to make a big attack.

In recent days, russia has focused missile and drone attacks on the south, causing particularly extensive damage in the Odessa region. The part of the region that borders Romania and Moldova and is separated from the rest of Ukraine by a bay has lost both bridges and remains isolated.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky reported that in the Odessa region they are working on restoring the infrastructure and dealing with the people responsible for the region's air defense. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/12/20/8012777/

Well, the main thing is to find those who can be accused of the inability to repel drone and missile attacks without having the capabilities to do so. There is an old joke in Odessa about when, instead of building protective structures in the port, during a storm, stupid bosses send workers to repel the waves with their asses.

However, Zelensky has acknowledged that liberating occupied territories by armed force is no longer possible and diplomatic options would need to be pursued. Only a quarter of Ukrainians want to fight russia to the end, according to a Gallup poll published on Thursday, revealing the public’s plummeting belief in achieving victory, writes The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/07/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-zelensky/

Zelensky also admitted that Ukraine's own financial resources will not be enough to immediately maintain an Armed Forces of 800,000 people in the event of a ceasefire, therefore the Ukrainian side considers financing of the army by partners as a component of security guarantees. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/4071881-ukraina-samostijno-ne-zmoze-profinansuvati-armiu-u-800-tisac-osib-zelenskij.html

But many people believe that the problem is not so much the size, but the quality of the Ukrainian army whose expenses are constantly increasing and whose effectiveness is declining. It is known that war is a series of mistakes, but the one who makes the fewest mistakes and draws conclusions from his own mistakes wins. In any case, one of the most hardworking and talented people in Europe deserves more respect. What kind of motivation can be expected from millions of Ukrainians who live in the expectation of being caught on the street like a wild animal?

A former intelligence officer, a veteran of military intelligence who served in a unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate, draws attention to the fact that not all people are equally motivated, not all are equally suitable for fighting, and all this should be taken into account during the draft, since unmotivated and untrained soldiers do not bring much benefit, but resources are wasted on them. Separately, he mentions the low quality of commanders. He also points out that the soldiers are paid too low. $ 500 a month underestimates what they do, risking their lives, and this also affects motivation. https://24tv.ua/yak-voyuye-pidrozdil-artan-gur-mo-kirilo-budanov-sluzhba-gur_n2973689

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, believes that Ukraine's main mistake was a "completely failed media campaign" regarding mobilization, and russia's role in discrediting it is much less than the authorities say. "We ourselves destroyed our mobilization. No matter who says otherwise, it's not true. We destroyed it ourselves," the head of the MID emphasizes. https://hromadske.ua/viyna/256687-my-sami-zruynuvaly-svoiu-mobilizatsiiu-vplyv-rosiyi-ne-takyy-velykyy-budanov?traffic_source=ukr.net

Military Ombudsman Olga Reshetylova emphasized that the requirements for the health of conscripts have been significantly reduced due to a shortage of personnel. Today, people with health problems can join the army, and the Military Medical Service only conducts a superficial examination, so the responsibility for timely updating of medical data lies with the conscripts themselves. https://glavcom.ua/country/society/vimohi-shchodo-stanu-zdorovja-pridatnoho-do-vijskovoji-sluzhbi-znachno-znizheni-vijskova-ombudsmenka-1093637.html

Another shift of responsibility to people whose medical documents are often not taken into account by medical commissions due to numerous violations of the procedure and the inability of patients to enter information about their diseases into the electronic system on their own. During my last visit, I asked the doctor what of my medical documents, which have accumulated a large folder over the past couple of years, are in the electronic system? She replied that nothing and she cannot even enter her own conclusion there after my examination. Thus, the entire activity of the so-called medical commissions is fake and the only benefit from them is only for the organizers of corruption schemes to recognize those who give bribes as unfit.

Separately, it should be noted the strange attitude of the state towards doctors. The same doctor can work in both a private and a public hospital, but his conclusions are recognized by the state only if he does so while in a public hospital.

With attacks on oil tankers, ukraine takes aim at russia’s war financing. Strikes on four vessels signal that Kyiv is willing to expand the maritime theater of the conflict in an effort to crimp Moscow’s military funding, writes The New York Times. Ukraine has used drones four times in the past few weeks to hit oil tankers from russia’s shadow fleet, escalating the war in the seas and showing that Ukraine’s security services agency feels increasingly emboldened to launch audacious attacks and claim them publicly.

One ship was struck by aerial drones on Thursday night in the Mediterranean Sea, more than 1,200 miles away from Ukraine. The other three were hit by sea drones in the Black Sea. The attacks are the first on russia’s sanction-defying oil tankers that Ukraine has acknowledged since russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The security agency also said it had attacked Russian oil production platforms in the Caspian Sea four times in the past 10 days, including on Thursday. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/20/world/europe/russia-ukraine-oil-tanker-attacks-shadow-fleet.html

It's bold and sounds good, but I wouldn't forget that these attacks harm not only russia, but also the buyers of its oil, who can also strike in an unexpected place.

The corruption scandal with the "Mindich tapes" led to the dismissal of Andriy Yermak from the post of head of the President's Office. But now he still communicates with the president every evening. This was stated by Inna Vedernikova in the article "The Illusion of Power. What a Fatal Mistake Zelensky Could Make." https://zn.ua/ukr/POLITICS/iljuzija-vladi-jakoji-fatalnoji-pomilki-mozhe-pripustitisja-zelenskij.html

A billionaire real estate developer and longtime golf partner of US President Donald Trump Steve Witkoff has unexpectedly become a key negotiator with the Kremlin. His rapid diplomatic rise, despite his lack of experience in geopolitics, was due not to the personal support of the American leader, but to the wishes of russian President Vladimir putin, The Wall Street Journal reveals an open secret. https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-witkoff-russia-envoy-04da229d

[N0TZU]

A billionaire real estate developer and longtime golf partner of US President Donald Trump Steve Witkoff has unexpectedly become a key negotiator with the Kremlin. His rapid diplomatic rise, despite his lack of experience in geopolitics, was due not to the personal support of the American leader, but to the wishes of russian President Vladimir putin, The Wall Street Journal reveals an open secret. https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-witkoff-russia-envoy-04da229d

The inexperienced Witkoff’s vast overconfidence (a perfect Dunning-Kruger example), plain foolishness, and child-like naïvety in negotiating with the wily and brutal Russian dictator Putin is simply stunning. As in being hit in the head with a brick stunning.

It boggles the mind, for example, that on multiple occasions he reportedly accepted Putin’s demand to not have his own interpreter which obviously put him at a serious disadvantage. We must remember, though, that Trump has done the same stupid thing, and perhaps Witkoff didn’t want to act like he was more intelligent than his boss. It seems to have worked.

Then there is the recently reported coaching by Witkoff of a Kremlin official to make Russian peace proposals more attractive to Trump, this putting Russian interests above those of the United States let alone Ukraine’s. But I suppose he could argue that he was just following orders, since his boss does the same damn thing. No wonder that they have been friends and golf partners for years.

God help Ukraine with “friends” like this.

[US7IGN]

Strikes from russia overnight targeted Ukraine's energy sector and civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian air force says 38 missiles and 635 drones were launched throughout the night and that, of those, 34 missiles and 587 drones were shot down by air defence systems. russia confirmed it struck Ukrainian energy facilities and other transport infrastructure used by the military, according to the state news agency Tass. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c157w754kqnt

Electricity supply in the Rivne, Ternopil and Khmelnytsky regions are "almost completely" lost, Ukraine's acting energy minister Artem Nekrasov says. "The situation remains difficult," he says. Blackouts have also been reported in Vinnytsya, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions. "A significant number" of Ukrainians also remain without power in the Odesa region and electricity rationing has been introduced across the country. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c157w754kqnt?post=asset%3A622fe60d-da9e-4fe3-baae-bd7b9f34bfab#post

One russian drone hits residential building in Kyiv. https://kiev.informator.ua/uk/u-kiyevi-cherez-ataku-shaheda-p-yatero-poranenih-dvoye-z-nih-vazhki-klichko

The Zaporizhstal metallurgical plant, probably one of the last operating in Ukraine, was forced to shut down due to massive shelling of energy infrastructure. https://24tv.ua/economy/ataka-energetiku-23-grudnya-zaporizhstal-zupinilo-virobnitstvo_n2975843

Due to the massive attack on Ukraine, in particular on energy infrastructure, Ukrainian nuclear power plants were forced to reduce their capacity, Acting Minister of Energy Artem Nekrasov said. https://zn.ua/ukr/energetics/pislja-masovanoho-obstrilu-ukrajinski-aes-zmenshili-potuzhnosti.html

Two Su-30 and Su-27 fighter jets were hit at a Russian military airfield near Lipetsk, the Main Intelligence Directorate reports. https://hromadske.radio/news/2025/12/22/na-rosiyskomu-viyskovomu-aerodromi-pid-lypetskom-urazyly-dva-vynyshchuvachi-su-30-ta-su-27-hur

For three consecutive days, the Ukrainian delegation and two russian ones met with American representatives in the United States to discuss the details of a "peace plan" to end the war in Ukraine. These meetings did not yield any concrete results. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ce8njr21dmro

Fitch Ratings lifted Ukraine’s score from selective default after the nation announced creditors agreed to an exchange of its growth-linked debt into conventional bonds. The credit assessor now rates Ukraine as CCC, eight notches below investment grade, it said in a statement Monday. Fitch rates the new bonds one level higher, reflecting the enhanced credit protections. The conversion offer was backed by 99% of the holders of the so-called GDP warrants, who will exchange nearly $2.6 billion of the securities for $3.5 billion in bonds, the Finance Ministry said Thursday. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-22/fitch-lifts-ukraine-rating-to-ccc-after-warrant-conversion

Europe is failing Ukraine, wrote Politico https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ursula-von-der-leyen-russia-assets/

Ukrainian leader’s reliance on allies from his comedy days is backfiring as corruption scandals involving his inner circle threaten to destabilise war effort. During the presidential campaign that would catapult him to power, Volodymyr Zelensky told Ukrainians that his administration would be different to previous ones.

Cronyism and corruption, long endemic within the nation’s politics, would be swept away, he said. “No to nepotism and friends in power”, went one oft-repeated slogan. It was a promise that he broke almost immediately. Within a year of winning a landslide victory in April 2019, the new president had installed into senior government positions 15 people connected to his comedy troupe, Kvartal 95. For years he has defended that decision, arguing the need to surround himself with those whom he can trust. Now though, amid a corruption scandal centred on figures who worked with Zelensky in the entertainment industry, it is a decision that threatens to spell disaster for his presidency and the war effort, writes The Times. https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/kvartal-95-cabinet-zelensky-comedy-troupe-lq90h9jmz

China hoarding grain at an astonishing rate – according to some estimates, it possesses nearly 70% of the global corn reserves and more than 50% of its wheat and rice stockpiles – has undoubtedly contributed to rising global food prices and food shortages by taking large volumes of grain off the market. China’s explanation for maintaining such large reserves is to ensure that there is no recurrence of the deadly famines that have plagued the country throughout its history. Still, given the growing geopolitical tension  that has been brewing in this decade, it also is likely hedging against military confrontation or other cataclysmic circumstances that could snarl global supply chains. https://www.world-grain.com/articles/22197-from-the-editor-more-countries-stockpiling-grain

Interestingly, China did the same thing in 2021 before russia's invasion of Ukraine. https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/datawatch/china-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices

A hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance, this new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia but to keep the very structure of society intact. - George Orwell

[KD8ZM-Brady]

The Politico article is interesting, but unsurprising in what it reveals. As we've previously discussed here, it's a shame that Europe is so beset with cultural and governance issues that that they can't even agree that Russia should forfeit its assets - all it would take is for the French, the UK, and Germany to commit to help shoulder any liabilities that Belgium may incur in the courts by releasing frozen assets to Ukraine - but they won't step up.

The Europeans and the UK are so weak and pusillanimous that they have to leave the negotiations to the US, whose stake in the outcome of the war is far and away less consequential than Europe's. How frustrating. 

Having said that, even if the Europeans had provided $300 billion of frozen assets to Ukraine, it would not cause our side to win the war, it would only enable Z to keep tossing bodies at Russia. To win, Europe would have to take the risk of enraging Russia by allowing Ukraine to start using sophisticated weapons on Russian territory. BUT the EU won't even accept the financial risk that Russia will prevail in the courts regarding frozen assets, so what are the odds that they'll risk angering Russia militarily? Zero, in my view.

I wish the news were better, nevertheless I want to wish you all the happiest Christmas that you can possibly have!

[N0TZU]

Agreed, Brady.

Yes the US has a lesser stake, at the moment. But unfortunately the US administration is not simply less interested in the conflict, it has adopted pro Russian positions. I hope this changes, and soon.

Let’s focus on something more uplifting - Merry Christmas and best wishes to everyone here!