Ukraine updates in English

[US7IGN]

Merry Christmas to all!

I'm spending these holidays with my wife and daughter and nothing can upset me. I am convinced again that with God's help we can move forward regardless of any circumstances.

Today I helped my daughter conduct her first QSO under her own call sign UT2UDE. There is one more radio amateur in the world!

russia has been attacking Ukraine's oil and gas infrastructure for the second day in a row, and some of the equipment has been put out of action. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/udari-100-droniv-rf-sprichinili-kritichni-1766568141.html

Ukraine has built new effective fortifications that can stop russian troops, according to OSINT researcher Clément Molin, who analyzed satellite images, photos, and videos of the construction of a new Ukrainian fortification line and came to positive conclusions about it. https://texty.org.ua/fragments/116568/ukrayina-zbuduvala-novi-efektyvni-ukriplennya-shcho-mozhut-zupynyty-rosijski-vijska-osint-doslidnyk/

I cannot assess how well these fortifications can stop the russians without taking into account other components of the defense, primarily the quantity and quality of personnel. Recently, the level of tension in society has been increasing, and the motivation to fight has been falling. And it is probably wrong to blame this only on people.

In the Rivne region, passersby beat a serviceman from a mobilization center who was carrying out mobilization measures with a crowbar. https://zaxid.net/news/

In Dnipro, a man attacked mobilization center servicemen with a knife after they detained him. Two servicemen were injured and hospitalized. https://glavnoe.in.ua/news/u-dnipri-cholovik-poranyv-nozhem-dvoh-vijskovyh-tczk-napadnyka-zatrymaly

A man died in the Kirovohrad region after getting into a traffic accident while trying to avoid being detained by servicemen of a mobilization center. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/na-kirovogradshchini-pomer-cholovik-pislia-avariyi-pid-chas-vtechi-vid-ttsk

On social media, people are mostly on the side of the evaders. Legal nihilism is spreading throughout the country as a whole. There is no trust and respect for the state from citizens, everyone is forced to think first of all about themselves. Recently, I have started to notice drug addicts again, who have almost disappeared from the streets since 2022. The streets of Kyiv are becoming dangerous again.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during a conversation with journalists, first named 20 points of the "basic document on the end of the war", which still do not suit russia. On the other hand, we have already seen many peace plans and points that Zelensky has presented in recent years, but which have not ended in anything. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/mirna-ugoda-dlya-ukrajini-zelenskiy-nazvav-golovnimi-umovami-garantiji-bezpeki-ta-integraciyu-50570924.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d9wg2pwl1o

Pope Leo has urged Ukraine and russia to find the "courage" to hold direct talks to end the war during his first Christmas remarks to crowds in St Peter's square. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm21728nwxlo

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Glad to hear that your Christmas is being spent with family! Congratulations to Kate (and you) for obtaining her amateur radio license!

The rest of the news is not so encouraging, but with God all things are possible.

[N0TZU]

Congratulations to Kate on her first QSO! I hope that any “mic fright” (or key fright) quickly dissipated. I see that she already has a QRZ page too!

The article on the fortification line was interesting. It occurs to me that such defenses are likely much more effective in the drone era. Surveillance with cheap and plentiful drones is much easier and better than before, and they can be used to inexpensively and precisely attack any heavy equipment or sappers attempting to breach the line.

[N0TZU]

I’m reading just now about the terrible Russian attack on Kyiv overnight and am worried. I hope you are all unscathed and also have power, heat and water.

[US7IGN]

Hi all! There's no power and no heating, but we have gas and water. I hope it will be better soon.

[N0TZU]

Hi all! There's no power and no heating, but we have gas and water. I hope it will be better soon.

Thanks I’m relieved that you all are ok!

[US7IGN]

On the night of December 27, russia massively attacked Kyiv using cruise missiles, ground-based ballistic missiles, and aeroballistic "Daggers" launched from MiG-31Ks. In the morning, Kh-101 missiles launched from Tu-95MS bombers flew into Ukraine, which also attacked the capital through the center of the country. Hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles attacked various regions of Ukraine and Kyiv all night and in the morning. The attack lasted more than 10 hours. In total, russia launched 519 drones and 40 missiles at Ukraine overnight, according to Ukraine’s air force. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c7732j0jvnnt
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cn0k444ve2ko

Since the very morning, Kyiv was left without heating, electricity, and partially without water. In the afternoon, I had water, and in the evening, electricity. I still have no heat, fortunately the temperature is around 0C. In Kyiv, the water supply was restored, but 40% of residential buildings are still without electricity and heat. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/kievi-vidnovili-podachu-vodi-ale-tepla-shche-1766849995.html

In the afternoon Sergiy, Maryna and I drove around the district and looked at the consequences of drone hits on residential buildings. We watched one of the nearby impacts and the smoke over the city from our own window. I also saw a video on social media showing the destruction of the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant.

According to the British Guardian, peace talks initiated by the US are unlikely to end the war in the coming years. The only realistic scenario for Kyiv, in their opinion, is to save forces at the front, build up reserves, launch exhausting strikes on russia, and wait for a favorable moment for agreements. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/24/ukraine-best-hope-russia-inches-forward-on-battlefield

Speaking on board a plane bound for the United States Saturday, Zelensky said he would be looking for a signal during talks with Trump that Ukraine would receive legally binding security guarantees as part of any peace deal. Trump said in an interview with Politico that he expects the meeting with Zelensky to “go good,” but cautioned that the Ukrainian president “doesn’t have anything until I approve it.” He added that he also expects to speak with russian President Vladimir putin “soon, as much as I want.”

US officials said they were hopeful that Sunday’s Zelensky-Trump meeting would be productive after a week of intensive efforts between US and Ukrainian negotiators. The meeting is not expected to include any European leaders, according to US and European officials. However, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will join a call Saturday with Zelensky, Trump and other European leaders, a commission spokesperson told Reuters. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/26/europe/zelensky-trump-talks-ukraine-russia-intl

This was the year ‘The West’ died. 2026 may be even worse, writes  The Telegraph. European weakness over Ukraine and overdependence on Trump has left us dangerously exposed. A bigger disaster may be on the horizon. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/12/26/2025-year-the-west-died-2026-even-worse/

[N0TZU]

I fear that Francis Darnley is largely correct. Europe continues their weak responses and it seems to me that most of them still can’t believe that the barbarian is at the gates, despite the evidence of the war in Ukraine, and of their own eyes in their own countries and waters from damage to undersea cables, cyber attacks, and more recently drone mischief in their airspaces shutting down airports at will and lingering over their military sites.

I think that Trump is unlikely to ever restrain Putin in a significant way. Even if he didn’t have his long standing admiration for the dictator, he still wouldn’t because he is, at bottom, a bully toward the weak and a coward toward the strong, and Trump thinks that Putin is very strong.

Darnley (and many others) are correct that Trump has upended the normal order to deliberately go back to the 19th century of hemispheric and regional hegemony. In part this is because the public and especially his base was rightly sick of seeing their sons and daughters volunteer for the American military and then be sent to fight dubious, nearly interminable wars on the other side of the planet, not to mention trillions of dollars spent. Pax Americana in the western hemisphere will probably not require much effort or American blood in comparison so it wouldn’t be repeating this mistake. It’s a Monroe Doctrine and Teddy Rosevelt’s Big Stick redux.

Unfortunately ceding to China and Russia would be extremely bad for the US, Europe and others by any reasonable analysis. But reasoned analysis is now in exceedingly short supply in the Trump administration and Congress, especially the supine and self-lobotomized Republican Party.

Given this it seems paradoxical that Trump wants to increase US military capability - including nuclear - until one recalls that it’s more for his boundless vanity than preparing for realities of 21st century warfare.  See for example his recent announcement of developing a  “Golden Fleet” of  “Trump Class Battleships”, which cannot scale like missiles and low cost unmanned systems, yet will be dinosaurs and relatively easier targets for a world of (true) hypersonic missiles and low cost but very capable unmanned systems in the air and on the seas.

Then there is the money to be made by selling armaments to the US government and to governments around the world who will certainly need them. Trump always looks for ways to make geopolitics all about making money - in the short term.

On a better note, there are some hopeful signs that the Congress may be willing to stir itself and assert some of its power, which could help the situation, including Ukraine which is popular with Americans. The polls for Trump continue to be in the basement, the public is increasingly uncomfortable with draconian policies, he has not been able to get some Republican states to do his bidding on redistricting for the 2026 elections, and most importantly the tariffs and continuing inflation have plainly added to economic issues for the average family (and farmers), despite Trump denying it happening. All this is making Republicans and conservative Democrats very very nervous about retaining their seats in 2026. There is nothing quite like the prospect of being voted out of a posh and profitable job to motivate Congress-critters.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

Back to the subject of Ukraine for a moment, Wlad I was happy to read that you were not hurt by the Kyiv assault on the 27th. I was concerned when I saw the reports. My view is that Russia is trying an all-in, total war approach to bolster their negotiating position. It will probably work, unfortunately, since Ukraine is constrained from using high tech weapons offensively. And, I haven't seen the Europeans or Americans (of either party) even suggest changing that policy and allowing Ukraine to do anything offensively with western weapons that would strike fear into the heart of Putin.
History shows that there's no appeasing dictators who are militaristic, and appeasing in fact only makes their goals more expansionist. Uncomfortable as it may be,  there won't be peace without the west taking some risks.
Here's to a better 2026.

[US7IGN]

Hi guys! No heating, so hot water bottles goes under the blankets again. Fortunately, the temperature stays around 0C and it snows from time to time. There is electricity only for a few hours a day and we are having fun with a battery-powered radio. Kate has made her first dozen QSO and is not going to stop. Good propagation on 28 and 21 MHz makes it easy.

In my opinion, russia has no reason to stop now. It is not its residents who are having blackouts and hunting people on the streets, it is not its cities that are surrounded and suffering from bombings, it is not its president who is traveling around the world begging for money in debt.

President Donald Trump said he believes both Kyiv and Moscow want to strike a deal to end the Ukraine war and that negotiations are nearing their final stages as he hosts Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Florida resort today. Any potential peace deal would need buy-in from russian President Vladimir putin, who spoke with Trump by phone today ahead of Zelensky’s visit. Trump and putin agreed to speak again after the meeting in Florida..

Trump declined to weigh in on whether he expects a deal before the end of the year. “I don’t have deadlines,” he said. https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-zelensky-ukraine-news-12-28-25

Meanwhile, the systemic crisis in Ukraine is only spreading. Another friend of the president seems to have fled the country after several deputies were suspected of voting for bribes. https://detector.media/infospace/article/246644/2025-12-28-yuriy-yuzik-koryavchenkov-vyikhav-z-ukrainy-cherez-spravu-nabu-znua/

Poland has financed the development of its own new anti-tank missiles, but only an analogue of the Israeli Spike - Moskit, while the future of the Pirat developed jointly with Ukraine looks bleak. The situation is developing in such a way that the Ukrainian-Polish Pirat ATGM will most likely be closed and remain unfinished. https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/nevzhe_tse_kinets_ukrajinsko_polskogo_ptrk_pirat_ta_scho_tse_mozhe_znachiti_dlja_stugni_p-21277.html

[N0TZU]

Nice that Kate has been enjoying the radio! Certainly a good pastime for the situation too.

I agree Putin has no reason of his own to stop, and likely none will be forthcoming from Washington. I fear that the only real pressure will be against Zelensky and Ukraine.

I agree with Brady that neither party is very concerned with Ukraine at the moment. I think it’s important to understand why this is to anticipate further developments. Foreign relations are the responsibility of the president, but Congress has historically often waded into the fray, so why so quiet now, especially as Ukraine is still popular?

Brady and I probably would have friendly disagreements about this, but in my opinion so much sudden turmoil has been unleashed upon the economy, domestic institutions, government agencies, and norms of law and governance that international concerns have receded in priority for both parties - but most among the Democrats. And because Trump’s grip on the Republican Party means that significant disagreement is unlikely from them, unless the critics are retiring or resigning from Congress, or willing to risk being ignominiously defeated in a primary election. As I said there are signs that all of the above may just be starting to change, but change can take a long time.

We must deal the situation as it is now, but I think it’s a proper topic to discuss a certain amount of US domestic politics in order to make sense of US actions or inactions regarding Ukraine. Along with the ineffective Europeans, at least in the short run, I fear that the net result could be very bad indeed.

[US7IGN]

It's great to celebrate the New Year with warmth, water, and, at least partially, electricity and family! Last night there was an air raid and my friend who lives on the other side of Kyiv said there were loud explosions, but we didn't hear anything. Light frost and snow instead of mud and rain make this New Year's different from many previous ones. Kate collected her first pile-up on 28MHz today, tired but happy.

Media reports say that Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, Zaluzhny, plans to leave his post in early 2026, likely returning to Kyiv in January. https://24tv.ua/zaluzhniy-mozhe-piti-posadi-posla-ukrayini-britaniyi_n2979023

Zaluzhny's press secretary denies everything https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/12/29/novyna/polityka/zaluzhnoho-zaperechyly-vin-planuye-zvilnyatysya-posady-posla, but there's no smoke without fire.

In Ukraine, more than 10,000 russian soldiers have been captured since the start of the full-scale invasion. Among them, the number of foreign mercenaries is growing, reports the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/koordshtab-vpershe-nazvav-kilkist-polonenih-1767178173.html

I thought the figure should be much higher. Unfortunately, there is no understanding of how many Ukrainians are in russian captivity.

Chinese President Xi Jinping declared Taiwan's reunification with China inevitable and a historic process. He made this statement in his New Year's address, delivered the day after the conclusion of military exercises around the island. https://www.trtrussian.com/article/d56641c303c3

Perhaps russia's statements about China's support for the occupation of Taiwan should be taken literally, and I do not rule out that russia will be forced to stop in Ukraine due to the need to transfer part of its army to China as payment for previous support. This solves several issues - russia repays China's debt and solves the problem of what to do with its soldiers, China spends foreign soldiers and has no social problems at home. My condolences to the people of Taiwan. I would have left there for some better place.

[KD8ZM-Brady]

This is the statement that sums it all up for me:

"In my opinion, russia has no reason to stop now. It is not its residents who are having blackouts and hunting people on the streets, it is not its cities that are surrounded and suffering from bombings, it is not its president who is traveling around the world begging for money in debt."

So obvious to someone who is living there, but I'd bet there is not one person in a hundred living here, who is thinking that way. Maybe military personnel, but not average citizens!

Bob, as far as US politics... you can discuss US politics or anything else at will, of course. Don't worry about offending me; I do lean conservative but also recognize that others have their own opinions. I think independently and when Trump says something needlessly offensive, as he often does, I say so (perhaps not here where it's off-topic, but nevertheless... I say so). I also admit that for the most part, I agree with his goals as he tries to correct many problems that have just been kicked down the road from president to president over the years. In such a situation, mistakes are inevitable, or as my brother told me decades ago, "the only person who doesn't make mistakes is the person who doesn't try to change anything." As I've said in the past, my opinion is that US politics don't belong here, particularly just partisan talking points like "Trump loves Putin" or other such things spouted by the DNC and their cronies in the press. That is why during the Biden years, I don't think I ever complained about him here - it was just off-topic for the most part, regarding Ukraine. But again, that is just my opinion and anyone who wants to vent or say anything on any relevant topic, I can read it without fogging up.

Since it is upon us, I wish you all a very happy New Year - gosh I hope the war ends this year!!!

[N0TZU]

Wlad, I’m happy to hear that you all are warm and well! Kate is wasting no time in filling her radio logbook under your guidance! Running her own pileup, and having only being licensed for what, perhaps two or three weeks? Outstanding!

I hadn’t considered the possible Russian troop support of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and it’s a very interesting thought. I expect that they would be used in cannon fodder roles (like the DPRK troops in Ukraine), since more complicated actions in coordination with Chinese troops would be hampered by the language barrier and differences in training.

 I have thought for many years that it’s inevitable for Taiwan will be re-incorporated with China. The big question is how the process happens and how much damage and loss of life occurs. It’s complicated because China has many factories mainland run by Taiwanese companies and is reliant upon Taiwanese chips, as we are, and there are many other ties.

At what point would Zelensky be forced to resign? Is he essentially untouchable under martial law or is there a workable mechanism for the Verkhovna Rada to force him from office? And then there is the problem of whom would be a better choice?

You’ll probably read this post on January 1 local, so Best Wishes for the New Year! May you all be safe and well.

Happy New Year also to Brady and whoever else may be reading along!

[N0TZU]

Brady, I think we probably would agree about more things than we disagree. I’m an unaffiliated voter and consider myself a centrist and an “equal opportunity” critic of both parties, as deserved for whatever “special kind of stupid” thing they do.

Of course this means that most of time it will be the one in power that is criticized but that doesn’t imply a love of all the policies of the other party. They have their own special kind of stupid.

I do tend to become sarcastic in writing about it, and undoubtedly that can sound hyper-partisan. I shall reduce that as a new year resolution.