Ukraine updates in English

[US7IGN]

The U.S. president’s comments have upended the World Economic Forum, pushing Ukraine aside and fueling fresh anxiety about transatlantic ties, writes Politico. Instead of rolling up to a cozy gathering to discuss the economy and strike deals, delegates have arrived at a conference roiled by a transatlantic crisis that threatens to undermine NATO and the Western order that has kept Europe safe since the end of World War II. https://www.politico.eu/article/trumps-greenland-threats-steal-the-spotlight-in-davos/

Judging by what I hear from friends in Europe and read on social media, they are finally really concerned about what is happening, and even more so about what is not being done. It seems that the moment when it was possible to solve the problem of the russians has already been missed, and their existence and policy can no longer be changed, so now everyone will have to change what they can change, namely - themselves. And this applies not only to Ukraine. Ukrainians should ask themselves why they allow incompetent authorities to continue destroying the country, and Europeans can ask themselves why, with a population that exceeds the population of the United States, and with a lot of money, they continue to lose weight on the international level and only passively watch as the United States and China continue to dominate and even russia with a miserable 150 million population (at best), backward industry and financial crisis achieves its global geopolitical goals.

On the other hand, it may be time to reconsider the terms of the social contract between governments and citizens. If you cannot build your power on force, you will have to prove the expediency of your existence. Also, the question of a national or supranational idea that will unite people is again relevant.

Germany is trying to increase its military draft to re-arm, but it is facing problems, as young people ask the question: "What do I get out of this?", writes The Wall Street Journal. In particular, Berlin has introduced a new military service - initially on a voluntary basis. 700 thousand men and women born in 2008 began to receive questionnaires about physical fitness and readiness to serve. Only men are required to answer. They must appear for a medical examination, regardless of whether they want to join the armed forces or not. Against this background, mass protests have taken place in the country, involving school-age demonstrators. Protesters ask why they should sacrifice themselves for the sake of a state that allocates a quarter of the federal budget to paying pensions to the elderly. https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/germanys-military-recruitment-drive-has-a-gen-z-problem-577d535b?mod=hp_lead_pos9

I was once told that it was easier for me in 2022 because I went through 2014 and became more prepared. But I was also 10 years older, and new illnesses had been added to old ones, and fatigue was accumulating. If you survived 6 rounds of punches, you got to know your opponent better, but you had less strength left to survive the next 6 rounds. In any case, I would prefer not to have this experience, but to live calmly.

The police are increasing the number of patrols in the context of the energy emergency, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine said in a statement. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-mvs-politsiya-patruli/33653102.html

The street shelters for heating will also be guarded by armed national guardsmen. Those who have been there say that even homeless people find it difficult to stay there, but I would like to know the number of police and other healthy armed people who receive a salary while being far from the front and doing nothing useful. I would not be surprised if their number exceeds the number of soldiers fighting at the front.

Meanwhile, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, gave an interview in which he stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are planning new counter-offensive operations, since it is impossible to achieve victory solely through defense. He is also satisfied with the work of the mobilization centers. https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/v-oboroni-peremogi-ne-zdobudesh-sirskij-anonsuvav-nastupalni-operatsii-zsu-u-2026-rotsi.htm

But for money, mobilization center employees also help draft evaders. In Ivano-Frankivsk region, the State Bureau of Investigation exposed military mobilization centers that were transporting draft evaders to Romania for money. https://dbr.gov.ua/news/na-ivano-frankivshhini-dbr-vikrilo-vijskovih-tck-yaki-za-groshi-perepravlyali-uhilyantiv-u-rumuniyu

Also, the media periodically reports on the detention or conviction of heads of mobilization centers for illegal enrichment.

Meanwhile, in 2025, the russian military-industrial complex manufactured and delivered seven Il-76MD-90A military transport aircraft. https://defence-ua.com/people_and_company/rf_v_2025_rotsi_zrobila_azh_sim_novih_il_76md_90a_ale_jim_tochno_bude_malo_dlja_planu_na_4_novi_polki-21496.html

Other new aircraft have also been built, which refutes the propaganda about russia's weakness and inability to produce weapons independently. https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war/jak_aviatsija_rf_iz_su_34_i_tu_95ms_posililas_za_majzhe_4_roki_vijni_proti_ukrajini_ta_jak_pro_tse_pishut_v_rusi-21483.html

India has unveiled a new sophisticated anti-stealth radar grid that can detect and track advanced fifth-generation stealth aircraft such as the US F-35 Lightning II, russian Su-57, and China’s J-35 stealth fighter prototypes. Stealth systems are designed with very low radar cross-section, allowing them to evade conventional radars and air defence networks. As nations race to develop fifth-generation fighters and advanced missile systems, India has also stepped up its efforts to push forth the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme while also boosting counter-stealth capabilities. https://www.wionews.com/photos/india-s-new-anti-stealth-radar-grid-can-detect-5th-gen-f-35-su-57-fighter-jets-all-about-air-defence-system-1768551519478/1768551519483

[US7IGN]

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga called on those who care about the world to organize fundraising to support Ukrainians in the conditions of a broken energy system. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2026/01/19/8016899/

A good initiative, but in the conditions of Ukraine I am not sure that Ukrainians will receive that help, because it is the same as helping the Iranians by transferring money to Ali Hosseini Khamenei and his government...

In the wake of a damaging corruption scandal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is increasingly reaching out to potential political rivals as the prospect of an election becomes more likely. On Thursday, Zelensky spoke with the man widely regarded as his biggest contender, former commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who’s now Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK. Earlier this week, the president also disclosed that he’d met other high-profile figures who are seen as having the potential to enter politics. Those included Serhiy Prytula, a former TV presenter whose charity donates to the armed forces, and popular nationalist activist Serhiy Sternenko. The flurry of meetings is a sign that Ukraine’s president may be maneuvering to secure his position in post-war politics, Bloomberg reports. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-17/zelenskiy-courts-potential-challengers-with-us-calling-for-vote?taid=696b4cdd9495b60001c2f943&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

[N0TZU]

I hope your heat and water is on now, or soon will be.

I’m encouraged by the signs that Zelensky is maneuvering for a post-presidential life. However, I would expect that his political career would be finished once he is no longer president. Nobody wants reheated old fish, especially if it tasted bad when it was fresh.

Ah, yes, Trump 2.0 chaos at the World Economic Forum. Rather than delve into the myriad international and domestic issues here I will sum it up by noting that all great nations have times when they stumble badly and this is shaping up to be a historic one for the United States. However never doubt that She will recover.

[US7IGN]

There is a belief that a person busy with survival is not too interested in politics or freedoms. And this is well confirmed by Ukraine. When you are freezing and do not know when the next time there will be electricity or water, it greatly affects the perception of reality, attitude towards it and ultimately, behavior. People become angry and scared, which further deprives them of the ability to think and common sense. What could be better conditions for manipulation?

Today my friend spoke emotionally about what Zelensky has brought the country to. Instead, I asked what she actually expected from a pro-russian actor backed by an oligarch when she voted for him? Why does she go to the dentist and not the local theater when she has a toothache? She said nothing, which was the best answer. At the same time, she doesn't want her husband or brother to go to war. Strange people...

The issue of Zelensky's support among the people is unknown to me, but I have noticed that there are regular news reports about the persecution of those he appointed to high positions due to corruption. That is, the circle of people close to him is rapidly shrinking. On the other hand, many people pay attention to the selectivity of anti-corruption agencies in who exactly and when to persecute, which indicates that they are controlled by those who determine what and when they do.

By the way, Zelensky is going to meet with Trump at the economic forum in Davos, but apparently no one expects anything from this meeting. It seems that Trump has become the black (or red) swan that Nassim Taleb wrote about, but he behaves like the pigeon from the joke. Never sit down to play chess with a pigeon - first he will scatter all the pieces, then shit on the board and fly away...

US President's special envoy Steve Witkoff said that Vladimir Putin is allegedly interested in concluding a peace agreement with Ukraine. He said this in an interview with American television channels. The US President's special envoy said that the peace plan is already more than 90% ready, and negotiations with the Kremlin leader are scheduled for January 22. https://informator.ua/uk/vitkoff-stojit-na-svoyemu-putin-hoche-uklasti-mirnu-ugodu-z-ukrajinoyu-peregovori-zavtra

French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe would not give in to bullies or be intimidated, in a scathing criticism of U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose steep tariffs if Europe does not let him take over Greenland. France, and Europe, will not "passively accept the law of the strongest," Macron said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, adding that doing otherwise would lead to their "vassalization". https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-shares-messages-frances-macron-offering-g7-meeting-after-davos-2026-01-20/

But it seems like it will remain just words again.

Meanwhile, former intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov is actively advancing politically, and some believe he has already surpassed former commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny in popularity. The newly appointed head of the Presidential Office, Kyrylo Budanov, said during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he is "cautiously optimistic" about the timing of the end of the war, russia's place in the negotiation process, and China's role in ending the war. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c9qpe38qppyo

Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said the capital was fast approaching a humanitarian crisis due to russia’s continued attacks on critical infrastructure — some 600,000 residents had fled the city in January alone, he told The Times. The head of the military administration denies this, and accusations of poor winter preparations and poor handling of problems between local and central authorities continue. https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/no-power-18c-and-russian-attacks-kyiv-faces-catastrophe-mp2dmdbsz

As a result of attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector, the infrastructure of one of the largest mobile operators, Kyivstar, is in a complete blackout in several regions. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/kiyivstar-povnomu-blekauti-kilkoh-oblastyah-1768997976.html

The Ombudsman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets stated that there was no reaction to the recorded violations of the conditions of detention of conscripts in the Bila Tserkva mobilization center. According to the Ombudsman, unsanitary conditions, a lack of proper sleeping places and basic hygiene conditions were recorded in the premises of the mobilization center. Videos with the relevant violations are being distributed on social networks. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/351406-narusheniya-v-ttsk-na-kievschine-ombudsmen-zayavil-ob-otsutstvii-reaktsii

[US7IGN]

Power engineers are doing wonders restoring broken power systems, but many people are left without heat, water and electricity. I am lucky because the apartment is +16C, there is water and most of the time even electricity. Apparently an old house with a small number of residents does not create a big load on the network and therefore the electricity is turned off not as often as others. On the other hand, it is only -6C outside and it has snowed, which does not improve my well-being. I do not remember the last time I felt good.

russian, Ukrainian and US negotiators are heading to Abu Dhabi today for what are expected to be the first trilateral talks since russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. It comes after russia's President Vladimir putin and Donald Trump's envoys held what the Kremlin called "useful" but "very frank" talks in Moscow. At the World Economic Forum in Davos yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had reached an agreement with Trump on future US security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a deal. But he also made clear that the future status of territory in eastern Ukraine remained an unsolved issue, telling reporters: "It's all about the land". Speaking on Air Force One last night, Trump said he believed putin and Zelensky "both want to make a deal", adding "we'll find out". https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cz6yyy07wnjt

After meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Davos, Switzerland, US President Donald Trump said there’s still “a ways to go” on ending ussia’s war. After meeting a US delegation, russian leader Vladimir putin said a “long-term settlement” would not be reached without first resolving territorial issues, according to a Kremlin official. https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-administration-news-01-22-26

[N0TZU]

“Never sit down to play chess with a pigeon - first he will scatter all the pieces, then shit on the board and fly away...”

Best description yet!

[US7IGN]

Ukraine has condemned a fresh wave of russian strikes overnight which killed one person and injured 35 others, as talks with the US aimed at ending the war are set to resume, writes BBC today. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyr6p30054o

For me and many other people, this dry message looked much brighter. At night, I woke up to a loud explosion nearby at the same time as the sounds of an air raid siren. This was the first sign of a ballistic missile, of which even more arrived during the night. All night, flocks of drones flew over Kyiv and at least two exploded very close. The explosions of drones and missiles were interspersed with the sounds of air defense and there was no talk of sleeping. Although I was thinking mainly about not being left without heat, since there had been no electricity since yesterday. When it began to dawn and after the last explosion in the area of ​​the nearest thermal power plant, thick black smoke rose above it, at the same time the water stopped flowing and the heating was turned off, I decided that I needed to get up and drink tea. My head and heart ached and I felt broken. Fortunately, electricity and water were restored after lunch, and the sun warmed the apartment during the day. The heating also seems to have started to return.

The spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Yuriy Ignat, called the night air strike on Kyiv unprecedented. For the first time in a long time, the russian federation used X-22 "Tsirkon" anti-ship missiles, the combat mass of which is 950 kilograms. According to him, russia used 12 such missiles on Kyiv, of which 9 were shot down. https://zn.ua/ukr/UKRAINE/povitrjani-sili-sohodnishnij-udar-po-kijevu-tse-bezpretsedentnij-vipadok.html

We must not forget that shot down missiles also explode, only in a different place. Well, the negotiations in Abu Dhabi are ongoing, so the pressure is also continuing. My friend expressed the opinion, given the composition of the delegations, among which only the military, that the political decision has already been made, and technical issues are currently being resolved. This reminds me of the negotiations, as a result of which in 2022 Zelensky ordered the Ukrainian soldiers who were defending Mariupol to leave and surrender.

In general, the energy situation is constantly deteriorating. And the point is not only that electricity is short-lived and turns on and off unpredictably, but also the voltage jumps greatly, which poses a threat to electronic household appliances. You also need to carefully check the condition of products in stores, where they can sell you frozen meat that will turn out to be rotten at home. Owners of electric cars are saddened by the significant increase in the cost of charging them.

[N0TZU]

I’m pleased that - finally - Russian “shadow” oil tankers are being interdicted frequently, and by multiple nations.

So far, France, Estonia, Finland and the US have recently seized such vessels, while Germany merely denied entry into its waters. Germany did seize such a tanker several years ago and has been trying to sell the oil but this is tied up in their courts.  The UK has been assisting with naval vessels supporting these actions and intelligence. In the last month the UK has been preparing to directly interdict shadow tankers.

The US seizures have been justified by sanctions imposed on Venezuelan oil by the US, but these tankers are also used to transport sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil. Thus these seizures reduce the number of shadow vessels available for Russian oil.

Russia attempted to thwart this by reflagging some ships in mid-voyage as Russian and escorting them with naval vessels (reportedly including an attack submarine) but that didn’t stop the boardings and seizures while the Russian navy stood by, revealing the escorts to be bluffs.

Recently the UK government has come under criticism for not taking action on 40 or so shadow tankers that passed through the English Channel. Hopefully this will cause the UK to start interdicting them.

[US7IGN]

I actually don't know anything about it. How many tankers were seized? How many tankers are in the shadow fleet in total? What proportion of them were supplying oil to India and China?

[KD8ZM-Brady]

https://youtu.be/qh3TEv_7GYI?si=C-aoaw8aThrMVHNK

[US7IGN]

https://youtu.be/qh3TEv_7GYI?si=C-aoaw8aThrMVHNK

Thanks Braden! This once again emphasizes the importance and necessity of changes in Ukraine given the changes taking place in Europe. On the other hand, the recent appointments of a marketer as the Minister of Defense, who appoints bloggers as his advisors, make me pessimistic about the future.
https://suspilne.media/1220896-fedorov-ogolosiv-so-volonter-sternenko-bude-jogo-radnikom-z-pitan-droniv/
https://suspilne.media/1222796-fedorov-priznaciv-sergia-flesa-beskrestnova-radnikom-z-tehnologicnih-napramiv-oboroni/

As does the complete chaos in the energy sector after the recent air strikes. Despite Zelensky’s threats to retaliate with strikes on Moscow, we all understand that this will never happen.

I want to quote the Ukrainian writer Les Podervianskyi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Podervianskyi who often speaks rudely but aptly:
The Poles chose Walesa, and we chose Kravchuk. And who forced us to choose Kravchuk - we had our own Walesa?! I think he was killed. If they had elected Chornovil, they would have elected a different Verkhovna Rada, of course. But this could not have happened. They could only have elected Kravchuk, and only all these f*ck*s*b*bs to the Verkhovna Rada. That's clear. Ukrainians, they are champions in such, I would say, cyclical suicide. No one can defeat Ukrainians, except Ukrainians themselves. And they have proven this all the time, throughout their history. All the time. They are stupid and irresponsible, they are like children... I am not a politician, and I can speak about my people without trying to please them.
https://www.facebook.com/poderviansky/posts/%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BD%D1%96-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%96%D1%97-%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%8E%D1%82%D1%8C-%D1%81%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%8E-%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B3%D1%96%D0%BA%D1%83-%D0%B2-91-%D0%BC%D1%83-%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%86%D1%96-%D0%BD%D0%B5-%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8-%D1%96-%D0%BD%D0%B5-%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BB%D0%B8-%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8-%D1%87%D0%BE%D1%80/1427538468743136/

[US7IGN]

After warming to almost 0C, severe frosts are expected again next week. The weather changes are affecting me very badly, but at least I have heat, water and electricity most of the day, while many people in Kyiv have no heat and only get electricity for a few hours a day. When it's cold both at home and in the office, people start to get sick. Everyone's mood is very bad. Meanwhile, the russians continue their attacks.

A russian drone flew over Kyiv on the afternoon of 26 January without air raid alert sparks security concerns. This raises questions not only about the state of the air defenses, which did not shoot it down for several hours, but the more serious concern is that the UAV reached the city undetected, highlighting the strategic intelligence capabilities of russia. https://tsn.ua/en/amp/ukrayina/shahed-drone-flies-over-kyiv-without-air-raid-alert-sparks-security-concerns-3008282.html

On the night of January 27, russians again struck an energy facility in Odesa. As a result of the attack, large-scale destruction was recorded, and the restoration of equipment will take a long time. https://gazeta.ua/articles/economics/_nichnij-udar-rf-po-odesi-masshtabni-rujnuvannya-energetiki-remont-zajme-tizhni/1242354

russia also struck the Druzhba oil pipeline in Ukraine, which leads to Hungary and Slovakia, for the first time. For security reasons, technological processes at the critical infrastructure facility, which was attacked by the russians on the morning of January 27, were stopped. https://uatv.ua/uk/rf-zavdala-udaru-po-naftoprovodu-druzhba-shho-jde-do-ugorshhyny-ta-slovachchyny-zmi/
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/4084850-naftogaz-zupiniv-tehnologicni-procesi-na-obekti-akij-rosiani-atakuvali-na-zahodi-ukraini.html

Since this pipeline can be used in reverse to supply oil and gas from Europe to Ukraine, this puts such supplies at risk.

Tonight, russia again attacked several regions of Ukraine with drones and missiles, damaging critical infrastructure. In Kyiv, a high-rise building and several cars were damaged. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/prilit-17-poverhivku-potroshcheni-avto-z-1769581007.html

The head of the Desnyansky district state administration of Kyiv, Maksym Bakhmatov, stated that it is impossible to heat the district with generators. “We have an emergency situation, CHP-6 has stopped producing heat, and today the entire district has been without heat for the second day in a row. This is the fourth time we are pouring [heat carrier] into this system during the heating season, restarting the heating. But currently there is no heat. Currently, we have approximately 700 houses without heating,” Bakhmatov stated. https://nv.ua/ukr/kyiv/opalennya-troyeshchini-bahmatov-zayaviv-pro-vazhku-situaciya-z-teplom-50579003.html

I came across the conclusion of the Polish consulting firm Rochan Consulting, which coincides with mine - russia has the ability to completely destroy the entire infrastructure of Ukraine, but for some reason does not want to do so.
Looking at russian strikes from a linear perspective, there is little indication that Moscow intends to reduce pressure on Ukraine’s energy system during the winter of 2025–26. Given the cumulative degradation of thermal, hydro, and gas-generation capacity, each additional wave this winter will land on a progressively weaker system with diminishing redundancy and narrower margins for error. Barring an abrupt political decision in Moscow or a step-change in Ukrainian air defence and repair capacity, the most realistic outlook is a sustained, campaign-style offensive throughout the winter—intended to keep Ukraine permanently close to the edge of systemic failure rather than trigger a single, dramatic country-wide blackout event. However, from a non-linear perspective, russia has repeatedly stopped short of completely collapsing Ukraine’s power grid. The grid was close to failure in 2022, yet the tempo of Russian strikes declined. With mass Geran production, russia has the capacity to impose far higher costs on Ukraine’s energy system than it has chosen to. Since Moscow still pursues maximalist political objectives over Ukraine, it may not be in its interest to inherit a country without electricity. This could limit the overall intensity of strikes even if they continue at a steady rhythm. https://rochan-consulting.com/russian-strikes-on-ukrainian-energy-ci-trends-and-outlook/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

So it all comes down to the fact that for some it is grief and suffering, for others it is just a tool to achieve goals. And if you go to a higher level, there are many other signs that the war in Ukraine is coming to an end simply because Ukraine will not be able to continue it.

The Trump administration has indicated to Ukraine that US security guarantees are contingent on Kyiv first agreeing a peace deal that would likely involve ceding the Donbas region to russia, according to eight people familiar with talks. Should russia be given the Donbas as part of a peace deal, or capture it by force, Ukrainian officials and military analysts say it would give Moscow’s forces a launch pad to attack deeper inside Ukraine, writes The Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/8ca0d4fd-fdfd-4aa3-a3a2-90be00d55b9d

France is opposing an effort to make it easier for Ukraine to buy British Storm Shadow missiles, The Telegraph can reveal. A coalition of 11 EU capitals has proposed loosening the rules for Kyiv to use a €90bn (£78bn) loan to buy British weapons, but France wants the money to be spent within the EU. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/01/26/france-opposes-eu-plan-to-buy-british-storm-shadows-ukraine/

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has admitted that Berlin is unable to supply Ukraine with further Patriot air defense systems from its own reserves. Pistorius made the corresponding statement on Monday, January 26, at a joint press conference with Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas in Berlin.

In light of Kyiv's requests for additional air defense ammunition, Pistorius explained that Germany has already done "disproportionately" in providing Ukraine with Patriot systems, and has given "more than a third" of its own capacity for these systems. Therefore, further deliveries are now impossible, as the Bundeswehr itself is waiting for a replacement for the systems transferred to the Ukrainian side and must maintain the ability to train and maintain these systems, the minister added. https://amp.dw.com/uk/pistorius-podalsi-postavki-ukraini-nimeckih-sistem-patriot-nemozlivi/a-75668999

Other events in the world may also have an impact on the war in Ukraine. China’s highest-ranking military official below Xi Jinping has been placed under investigation for corruption, a stunning upheaval that brings down the most senior figure yet in a widening purge of Beijing’s armed forces and signifies an unprecedented consolidation of military power under the country’s leader. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/25/china-military-purge-zhang-youxia-xi/

And Ray Dalio warns that the United States is dangerously close to civil war. He may be overly cautious and pessimistic, but his analysis is based on accurate calculations and indicators that cannot be ignored. Also, history shows that people refuse to believe in the bad until the last moment. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/money-civil-international-war-minneapolis-beyondin-ray-dalio-tofee/?trackingId=AegZlD4YSjGC5QMzeFjNng%3D%3D

His conclusions can also be applied to Ukraine with predictable results. I think we will soon see where Zelensky and his team have led Ukraine. At least he appointed a diplomat as Ukraine's ambassador to Georgia, whose position had remained vacant since 2022. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/zelenskii-priznachiv-novogo-posla-ukrayini-v-gruziyi-posada-bula-vakantnoiu-z-2022-roku

The Rivne regional mobilization center denied the involvement of its representatives in the forcible detention of a driver in Rivne. The official inspection at the mobilization center was carried out after the appeal of the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, who demanded a legal assessment of the actions of all participants in the incident and verification of compliance with the law. Since police officers were also recorded on the video, a corresponding appeal was also sent to the Main Directorate of the National Police in the Rivne region. On January 18, a video appeared in Rivne showing two people in military uniform, with the participation of police officers, forcibly pulling a driver out of a car, and then dragging him along the asphalt to a minibus. https://zaxid.net/rivnenskiy_ttsk_ne_pidtverdiv_uchast_svoyih_pratsivnikiv_u_silovomu_zatrimanni_cholovika_n1628849

Meanwhile, russia is fulfilling the mobilization plan in full, even without coercion. Moreover, some regions of the Russian Federation are even exceeding it, said in an interview the first deputy head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Oleg Lugovsky. "Over the year, russia recruits about 420 thousand servicemen for contract service and about 30 thousand more for volunteer units, which are not included in the general statistics," he noted. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/4083678-oleg-lugovskij-persij-zastupnik-golovi-sluzbi-zovnisnoi-rozvidki-ukraini.html

[N0TZU]

Dalio’s analysis is enlightening and useful as a guidepost, among others, for investing decisions and understanding political risks. However in my opinion it’s not comprehensive enough to predict political outcomes. The conditions he describes might be necessary, but are generally not sufficient to generate revolution. Viscerally felt and long held social, cultural and historical grievances are usually involved and can be just as important as economic ones, if not more so.

[US7IGN]

He warns and directly indicates that: Stage 5 is a juncture in which one path could lead to civil war/revolution and the other could lead to peaceful and, ideally, prosperous coexistence. Obviously, the peaceful and prosperous path is the ideal path, but it is the much more difficult path to pull off.  That path requires a strong leader who has the power to galvanize most people [rather than polarize them] and get them to do the difficult things to rectify the problems to make the country strong again.

It all depends on how the government responds to the crisis and whether it can make the necessary changes to the already outdated system. If it continues to make mistakes or inadequate policies, then revolution/civil war will inevitably come.

I also agree with him that there is a great deal of influence from outside forces who want to take advantage of the situation and this raises the question of the activities of hostile agents in the country. Ukraine is a good example of how this has happened and continues to happen. I would carefully check whether the ICE agents whose actions have exacerbated the escalation were recruited by russia or China. Many people in Ukraine are convinced that Trump himself is an agent of the Kremlin.

Donald Trump said it was "very dangerous" for the UK to deal with China, as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer continued his visit to Beijing to reset relations. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0keyyeyr41o

It is obvious that a new world order is being formed right now and I am very interested in what place Ukraine will occupy in it. I am very optimistic about this, given that we need to survive this winter at least. Next week at night, frosts of -25C are expected, and the calls of Zelensky and Trump for an energy truce, which, by the way, have not yet been supported in russia, are of little importance. Even if russia refrains from air strikes, the frost could finish off Ukraine's energy and utility infrastructure.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday, January 29, at a meeting with his cabinet members at the White House that he personally asked russian President Vladimir putin not to shell Ukrainian cities during the week of severe frosts. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cgm4d4zzw9po

The electricity shortage has become one of the biggest challenges for Ukrainian businesses. Metallurgical giants, building materials manufacturers, and energy-intensive enterprises have all faced large-scale downtime due to russian shelling.

The results of the European Business Association’s ad hoc survey “Impact of electricity outages on business operations” reveal that power supply disruptions complicate operations for the majority of its members (80%). Only a fifth (20%) stated that the outages had no impact on their work, underscoring the widespread effects of electricity issues.

Among the primary consequences of outages, companies most frequently cite increased production costs (61%), changes in working hours (58%), reductions in production volumes or service provision (50%), and downtime (48%). Financially, this impact is predominantly estimated as a 10–30% increase in goods/services costs, with only a portion of businesses managing to keep this figure within the 2–5% range. Most companies manage to fulfil their obligations; only 9% of the surveyed companies report that power outages have led to breaches of contract. https://eba.com.ua/en/80-opytanyh-kompanij-vidchuvayut-vplyv-vidklyuchen-elektroenergiyi-prote-bilshist-adaptuvalysya-zavdyaky-avtonomnosti/

Given my specialization in insolvency and bankruptcy, I see huge potential in my work due to the number of bankruptcies of businesses that will not survive, which will follow if the situation worsens.

Of course, these are the consequences of russian aggression, but there are also many questions for the Ukrainian authorities at all levels.

In January 2026, the electricity were turned off for 18-20 hours a day in Obukhiv, Kyiv region. A year ago, in January 2025, American donors handed over two cogeneration plants to the city. The equipment, which can produce energy and heat, has been standing unassembled all this time. This story is not unique. About half of the cogeneration plants available in the country are not yet operational. This is stated by both the Ministry of Energy and experts. At the end of January, the new Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal stated that they had counted the plants in Kyiv region and found that only a third of them were operational. International organizations have transferred 9 installations to Poltava, only one is operational. Odesa, which has long suffered from a blackout, has 13 installations from donors. At the end of 2025, two were operational. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c87r20n8rdro

But you can only blame the russians. The Dniprovsky District Court of Kyiv has found a woman innocent, whom prosecutors accused of justifying russia's armed aggression against Ukraine. As evidence, they cited her telephone conversation, in which she used the expression "to fight to the last Ukrainian." https://hromadske.ua/suspilstvo/258591-sbu-dva-misiatsi-slukhala-rozmovy-zinky-shchob-zasudyty-yiyi-za-frazu-pro-viynu-do-ostannyoho-ukrayintsia-sud-yiyi-vypravdav

Indeed, Ukraine is not russia, in which both the woman and the journalists who wrote about it would be imprisoned for this. But the very fact that the special services are wiretapping Ukrainians and persecuting them for their telephone conversations deserves attention.

The phrase "to fight to the last Ukrainian" is quite widely used in various circumstances and I became interested in its origin. It turned out that putin said this: "Who is attacking Vitkoff? These are representatives of a different point of view who want to steal money together with the Ukrainian establishment to continue fighting until the last Ukrainian. Well, I have already said publicly - in principle we are ready for this" https://www.unian.ua/world/putin-viznav-shcho-vin-gotoviy-voyuvati-do-ostannogo-ukrajincya-13209729.html

The website of the President of Ukraine also contains the following phrase "Our principle is simple: Ukraine does not start a war first, but Ukraine always stands to the last man.", which can be interpreted in different ways. https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-ukrayini-shodo-bezpekovoyi-situaciyi-v-68073

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Emergency power cuts swept across several Ukrainian cities as well as neighboring Moldova yesterday, January 31. The failure caused a cascading outage in Ukraine’s power grid, triggering automatic protection systems. Blackouts were reported in Kyiv, as well as Zhytomyr and Kharkiv regions, in the center and northeast of the country respectively. The outage cut water supplies to the Ukrainian capital, officials said, while the city’s subway system was temporarily suspended because of low voltage on the network. Moldova also experienced major power outages, including in the capital Chisinau, officials said. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/31/europe/power-outages-ukraine-moldova-intl
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c79rgrl3yejo

Due to the accident, the automation disconnected the Ukrainian nuclear power plants from the network, and they also reduced their generating capacity. This clearly demonstrated the vulnerability of the energy system, which is working at the limit. The simultaneous disappearance of electricity and water frightened people who expected a complete collapse of the Ukrainian energy system. Fortunately, by the end of the day, the supply of water and electricity was restored, but even greater frosts and possible shelling are ahead. There were various rumors about the causes of the accident, but it seems to me that it was the consequences of overloading.

The near future will show its ability to withstand not only frost, but also air attacks. Meanwhile, the president is once again blaming the partners.

An aid package with PAC-3 missiles for Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems arrived in Ukraine a day after the russian occupiers carried out a large-scale shelling of Ukraine, causing an almost complete blackout, while the arrival of this package was expected a month earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

The main need for this year is air defense – both systems and missiles. No country in Europe has such a powerful air defense as Ukraine, and still this is not enough, said Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palis. He said that during the last massive strike, Ukraine used more than 20 PAC-3 missiles, which are the only ones that can shoot down ballistic missiles. The US capacity to produce missiles per month is 55 PAC-3 units. https://lb.ua/society/2026/01/29/719404_palisa_pid_chas_vidbittya.html

Meanwhile, the authorities' mobilization efforts have clearly intensified. Police patrols and mobilization centers have been driving around the city for days looking for men, and yesterday I saw them block a major street and stop all the cars.

In Kyiv on Saturday, January 31, a mass brawl broke out on the street near the railway station involving workers of the mobilization center and police officers. A group of civilians prevented the detention of a conscript, who is called a violator of military registration. After a scuffle that began between civilians, police officers, and workers of the mobilization center, the detainee broke free. After that, workers of the mobilization center and police officers left the scene of the incident. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/u-kyyevi-stalasia-masova-sutychka-z-pratsivnykamy-ttsk-ta-politseyskymy-shcho-vidomo-3012170.html

Meanwhile, bad news for those hoping russia is about to collapse. The russian government is lifting a ban on gasoline exports for producers to avoid overcapacity. https://biz.nv.ua/ukr/markets/rf-dostrokovo-znyala-zaboronu-na-eksport-benzinu-yaku-vveli-na-tli-ukrajinskih-atak-na-npz-50579985.html

Last year, russia began modernizing the Soviet-era Petrozavodsk garrison on the border with Finland, which had been largely abandoned throughout the 2000s. Satellite images show that large tracts of forest have been cleared, and military equipment has appeared in the area. https://yle.fi/a/74-20206164