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US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #120 : Апреля 23, 2024, 12:39:32 pm »
Wlad, I totally agree with your analysis, and it's part of the reason why there is less support for funding Ukraine than there would otherwise be, among Americans. Our being deathly afraid of Russia's nuclear threats means there can never be a victory. The US and European governments have to decide that they're going to help Ukraine win the war by making Russia sick of the attacks on its own territory, based on Churchill's principle that the aggressor will make war until they have gotten so much war in return, that they are fed up with war.

The current situation in Ukraine is like a boxer who takes blow after blow, but isn't allowed to punch back. Biden's and the EU's fear of WW3 may actually lead to WW3, just as Neville Chamberlain's fear of WW2 helped lead to WW2.

That is why I applauded Macron when he said there may need to be European boots on the ground in Ukraine, if that's what it takes to win (sadly, other EU governments immediately undermined his statement, signaling to Russia that they have nothing to fear from Europe).

From what I've heard from military people, this coming week may be a very critical one for military movements worldwide.

As I said earlier, the policy of attrition of russia is wise, but everything has a price. Already today, Ukraine has ceased to be the country it was before 2022, not to mention before 2014. This is a fact. The destruction, territorial and demographic changes are irreversible, and changes in the future, if restored, will make everything qualitatively different. I understand that Ukraine has no significance globally, just as no one is particularly worried about Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, and so on. Those who remain get used to it, children grow up not knowing any other reality at all.

As for Macron, I would consider his statements from a political point of view as popularistic. Duda's statements look more real.

The Polish authorities are ready to place nuclear weapons on the territory of their country. Polish President Andrzej Duda said this in an interview with Fakt, published on Monday, April 22.
"If our allies decide to deploy nuclear weapons as part of the joint use of nuclear weapons also on our territory to strengthen the security of NATO's eastern flank, we are ready for it. We are an ally in the North Atlantic Alliance, and we also have obligations in this regard, that is, we are simply implementing a common policy," the Polish leader said.
Duda also confirmed that the topic of placing nuclear weapons in the country "has been a topic of Polish-American negotiations for some time." https://newsyou.info/2024/04/polshha-gotova-rozmistiti-yadernu-zbroyu-duda

Meanwhile, russia continues to bomb the front line and cities in the east and south every day. This clearly indicates where their efforts are territorially concentrated - Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Odesa. There is an opinion that while military aid is on the way, russia will become more active.

Yesterday, everyone was discussing the spectacular damage to the TV tower in Kharkiv, although I think it happened by accident. There are other objects nearby that have been repeatedly attempted to be targeted. I think the missile just caught the tower, or missed it by a bit to break it completely.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFlmQL6kJdc

Another high-profile event was the shooting of police officers by the military at a checkpoint in the central part of Ukraine, hundreds of kilometers from the front. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c6pyngm37n4o According to the authorities, people dressed in military uniforms illegally transported weapons and attacked police officers during the inspection. They were detained very quickly, they have already confessed to everything and they will be put on trial in the near future. Everything could have been like that. Arms smugglers wear military uniforms and go straight to the checkpoint at night to be guaranteed to be stopped and searched. At a time when there are lots of secondary roads around the forest. But as a result, the army is still a little discredited, the police get the opportunity to demand additional funding and increased restrictions on the population.
« Последнее редактирование: Апреля 23, 2024, 12:54:23 pm от US7IGN »

KD8ZM-Brady

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #121 : Апреля 23, 2024, 07:56:37 pm »
I don't think any country could go through what Ukraine is going through, and expect to emerge from it being anywhere near the same country in terms of culture or anything else. Lenin and his successors have a lot to answer for, in the hereafter, considering the monstrous country they have saddled the world with. 

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #122 : Апреля 23, 2024, 08:21:36 pm »
The main topic of today's discussion of the entire country, even those whom it does not concern at all, is that Ukrainian men of conscription age abroad are no longer issued documents in consular institutions. Some draw attention to the fact that this happened in an order not provided for by law, but it seems that this is another attempt by the authorities to play on the public, which once again divided society.
"How it looks now: a man of draft age went abroad, showed his country that the question of its survival does not bypass him, and then comes and wants to receive services from this country. It doesn't work like that. There is a war in our country. That is why yesterday I instructed to take measures to restore fair treatment of men of mobilization age in Ukraine and abroad. It will be fair," said Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister.
Foreign divisions of SE "Dokument" have already suspended their work. This was reported on the department's website. But they said that it happened for technical reasons. The mass media reported that Ukrainian consulates in Poland also stopped providing services to men aged 18-60. The mass media also wrote that Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiga sent a letter to Ukrainian diplomatic institutions with a request to stop the provision of services.
These services are related to the issuance of passports and a whole list of notarial services: power of attorney certificates, permission to cross the border for minors, application for acceptance/rejection of inheritance, certification of wills; certification of the authenticity of copies of documents; certificates confirming personal data; identity card for return to Ukraine.

If the authorities decide not to issue passports to men aged 18 to 60 in Ukrainian consulates abroad, it will be a morally understandable decision, but in fact a bad and ineffective one, said Serhii Petukhov, former deputy minister of justice for European integration.
In his opinion, this will not force any man to return to Ukraine and go to fight. Further, the expert suggests, when a Ukrainian man's Ukrainian passport expires, he will either use a temporary certificate issued in this country, or apply for refugee status.
"And in European countries will have a great chance to get asylum," says the former deputy minister of justice.
Ukraine will now be compared with Belarus, Petukhov believes, which has also stopped issuing passports to its citizens who have gone abroad. After Oleksandr Lukashenko banned Belarusian citizens from issuing documents abroad, some Belarusians who emigrated found themselves on the verge of losing their legal status.
"As a result, we have a solution that does not achieve its goal, instead it creates significant reputational problems for the country," says the exhibitor. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c72prrlg3n0o

I even came across the opinion that кussia could take advantage of the situation and start issuing passports to citizens of Ukraine abroad. It is obvious that those who left Ukraine had no intention of returning to fight. In such a situation, it will be very difficult to remain a patriot.

It is more interesting for me to observe the opinion of Ukrainians within the country, some of whom pay attention to gross violations of human rights and legislation, and the other part gloats on the principle - let others feel as bad as we do. But everyone agrees that if you give a bribe, you can get everything.

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #123 : Апреля 23, 2024, 08:34:12 pm »
I don't think any country could go through what Ukraine is going through, and expect to emerge from it being anywhere near the same country in terms of culture or anything else. Lenin and his successors have a lot to answer for, in the hereafter, considering the monstrous country they have saddled the world with.

There is an opinion that many other countries helped him. They bought grain, from the lack of which millions of people died, provided technology and were generally recognized as a country.

But it is not important anymore. What is important is why, after the collapse of the USSR, such small and weak countries as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia did not become a victim of aggression, but large Ukraine with a lot of weapons, including nuclear ones, lost half of its population and a fifth of its territory in 30 years and is not going to stop. And I would not blame Lenin for this.

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #124 : Апреля 23, 2024, 08:54:15 pm »
Today, I woke up again at night with explosions. It turned out that drones that flew to Kyiv were shot down. There were also explosions in cities in the east. Today I had a conversation with a friend who believes that russia is weak and on the verge of defeat and western aid will end the war. He also believes that the impact of energy losses will not significantly affect the state of the country. I hold it as wishful thinking, but I don't believe it. Of course, they do not have the strength to confidently win, but one cannot underestimate their support from China. At best, the new weapon will allow Ukraine to stop russia's advance and start negotiations. Time will show.

A new office of the ruling party appeared near me. Are they already preparing for the elections?
« Последнее редактирование: Апреля 23, 2024, 09:04:21 pm от US7IGN »

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #125 : Апреля 24, 2024, 04:07:08 pm »
Many people complain about feeling unwell due to the weather, but tonight was the worst night for me in a long time. In the afternoon I forced myself to go out in the heavy rain and buy some food. Next month there will again be additional costs for visiting a doctor and tests, but it could be objectively clear how my body responded to the new medications. From the sensations, I can’t understand anything at all.

The more people study recent changes in legislation, the more unanswered questions appear. In two months, several million people should receive new military registration documents, but even if the authorities manage to approve the procedure for obtaining it, it will be physically impossible to do this, which, together with those who are abroad, will outlaw a large number of men within the country.

Today, there are no effective mechanisms for countering human rights violations in matters of mobilization. This opinion was reached by the participants of the round table on the topic "Ensuring the observance of human rights in the conditions of martial law", which was held at the initiative of the Youth Committee of the National Bar Association of Ukraine. https://unba.org.ua/news/9050-problemi-mobilizacii-v-aspekti-porushennya-prav-lyudini-ozvuchili-advokati.html

There are also initiatives to introduce criminal liability for criticizing the authorities and voicing any opinion that differs from the official one. In this regard, I found this document published by the State Department interesting - 2023 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Ukraine. https://www.state.gov/reports/2023-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/ukraine/

russia's atrocities are obvious and require no comment, but even to an outside observer, the violations in the government-controlled territory of Ukraine are obvious.

A. FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION, INCLUDING FOR MEMBERS OF THE PRESS AND OTHER MEDIA
The constitution and law provided for freedom of expression, including for the press and other media, but authorities did not always respect these rights. President Zelenskyy signed a decree imposing martial law in February 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which permitted further restrictions on the media and media freedoms. For example, the national TV Marathon – a rotating platform of channels that take the government line on war reporting – enabled an unprecedented level of control over primetime television news. Moreover, some media outlets reported being removed from lucrative terrestrial broadcasting contracts and pressure from the Office of the President as early as the spring of 2022.

The government banned, blocked, or sanctioned media outlets and individual journalists deemed a threat to national security or who expressed positions authorities believed undermined the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Some speakers who were critical of the government were also blacklisted from government-directed news programming. Investigative journalists critical of the government were sometimes targeted by negative social media campaigns, sometimes via government-friendly channels. Other practices continued to affect media freedom, including self-censorship.

B. FREEDOMS OF PEACEFUL ASSEMBLY AND ASSOCIATION
The constitution provided for the freedoms of peaceful assembly and association, and the government generally respected these rights. Martial law restricted movement, peaceful assembly, and media and introduced curfews. In war time, the country derogated from a number of its international human rights law obligations, including those relating to peaceful assembly.

Freedom of Peaceful Assembly
Mass gatherings were restricted due to the imposition of martial law. Even prior to the introduction of martial law in 2022, authorities had wide discretion under a Soviet-era directive to grant or refuse permission for assemblies on grounds of protecting public order and safety. Organizers were required to inform authorities in advance of demonstrations.

Freedom of Association
Attacks against civil society were prevalent and often were not sufficiently investigated. International and domestic human rights NGOs were concerned regarding the lack of accountability for these attacks, which they believed created a climate of impunity. Human Rights NGOs documented 22 cases of violence against civil society representatives in the first nine months of the year, but comprehensive data were unavailable, as many NGOs shifted to documenting conflict-related abuses once the war began.

D. FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT AND THE RIGHT TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY
The constitution and civil code provided citizens with rights to freedom of internal movement, foreign travel, emigration, and repatriation. The government, however, restricted these rights, particularly in the eastern part of the country near the zone of conflict. Under martial law, men ages 18 to 60 were prohibited from leaving the country.

The document is large and covers violations in other areas.

KD8ZM-Brady

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #126 : Апреля 24, 2024, 06:27:29 pm »
The State Department's summary of conditions in Ukraine is fairly well recognized here in the US, making aid to Ukraine much harder to gain popular support. Just as frontline military fighters in your country wonder what they are fighting and dying for, taxpayers in the US wonder what they are paying for? Is it for a country that is transitioning toward a Russian-style pseudo-constitutional government?
Apparently the government of Ukraine does not see the connection between their abuses of citizens' rights, and the difficulty of getting aid from democratic countries. That's a pretty big oversight, if you ask me. Of course I realize that they may see the connection, and just not care.

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #127 : Апреля 24, 2024, 08:49:41 pm »
The State Department's summary of conditions in Ukraine is fairly well recognized here in the US, making aid to Ukraine much harder to gain popular support. Just as frontline military fighters in your country wonder what they are fighting and dying for, taxpayers in the US wonder what they are paying for? Is it for a country that is transitioning toward a Russian-style pseudo-constitutional government?
Apparently the government of Ukraine does not see the connection between their abuses of citizens' rights, and the difficulty of getting aid from democratic countries. That's a pretty big oversight, if you ask me. Of course I realize that they may see the connection, and just not care.


US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #128 : Апреля 25, 2024, 11:28:34 pm »
Today the sun came out again and I feel better. Unfortunately there were several air raids during the day which prevented traditional radio communication with Colin. Nothing hit Kyiv, but in different parts of the country, railway junctions and other infrastructure facilities were destroyed by missiles. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/u-sumah-prolunav-vibuh-povitryani-sili-poperedzhali-pro-ruh-cili-v-napryamku-mista-50413192.html

The russians broke through to the village of Ocheretine in the Donetsk region, northwest of Avdiivka, and the situation on this part of the front continues to get more difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It was possible to do this thanks to the massive use of aerial bombs by the кussians, with which they break through the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Such a breakthrough endangers the city of Pokrovsk in western Donetsk region. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c043pxdx3yeo

According to the media, as part of the aid package, the USA handed Ukraine more than a hundred long-range ATACMS missiles. There is an opinion that the Crimean bridge will still be destroyed in order to complicate a possible russian attack from the south. https://bukvy.org/ssha-peredaly-ukrayini-ponad-100-raket-atacms-nyt/

When there were people, there were no weapons, because of which people died. Now there are weapons, but no people.

On April 24, the Verkhovna Rada increased the number of the State Border Service of Ukraine by 15,000 servicemen. Thus, the number of border guards within a year from the date of termination or abolition of martial law on the territory of Ukraine will be up to 75,000 people, including up to 67,000 military personnel. There has already been a joke that there are fewer and fewer borders in Ukraine, and more and more border guards. https://news.liga.net/ua/politics/news/verkhovna-rada-zbilshyla-chyselnist-prykordonnykiv-na-15-000-liudei

Refusal to provide consular services, for example, to renew a passport, will not affect the status of Ukrainian men staying in Germany as refugees. Ukrainian refugees have a protected status in all countries of the European Union due to the fact that they were forced to leave their homeland to escape russian aggression. This was reported by the official representative of the Ministry of the Interior of Germany, Maximilian Kahl, writes DW. https://www.dw.com/ru/ukrainskih-muzcin-ne-budut-lisat-v-frg-statusa-bezencev/a-68910874?maca=rus-newsletter_ru_krieg_ukraine-34209-xml-newsletter&at_dw_language=ru&at_number=20240424&r=57271922185652989&lid=2921889&pm_ln=249291

The decision to ban men abroad from using consular services will not solve the problem with mobilization, but it is well received by those who are immersed in the war: the negativity from the authorities is skillfully transferred to a certain group of Ukrainians. But it seems that it does not matter to the authorities, just as the effectiveness of the mobilization process does not matter, the main thing is to resonate with an enthusiastic audience.

russia's Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov is under investigation on suspicion of corruption, but Ukrainian intelligence claims that he was captured because Ukrainian intelligence gained access to his documents and information confidential to the enemy. https://24tv.ua/zastupnika-shoygu-rosiyi-zatrimali-vnaslidok-diy-gur-dzherelo_n2542160

Well, more thoughts about what and why is happening and what to expect.

The war in Ukraine could reach a decision point by the NATO summit. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-war-in-ukraine-could-reach-a-decision-point-by-the-nato-summit/

Victoria Spartz's opposition. Why the first Ukrainian woman in the US Congress did not support aid to Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cljd260ydrxo

N0TZU

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #129 : Апреля 26, 2024, 05:12:20 pm »
The State Department's summary of conditions in Ukraine is fairly well recognized here in the US, making aid to Ukraine much harder to gain popular support. Just as frontline military fighters in your country wonder what they are fighting and dying for, taxpayers in the US wonder what they are paying for? Is it for a country that is transitioning toward a Russian-style pseudo-constitutional government?
Apparently the government of Ukraine does not see the connection between their abuses of citizens' rights, and the difficulty of getting aid from democratic countries. That's a pretty big oversight, if you ask me. Of course I realize that they may see the connection, and just not care.
I agree that this is a very serious problem. But, most people in the US really don’t know or care about the details of government policies in other countries, so it isn’t primary for most voters and their representatives, but certainly adds more reasons not to support Ukraine for those who do care. I think we here understand the populist- isolationist and Trumpian reasons that are the primary drivers of the opposition.


KD8ZM-Brady

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #130 : Апреля 26, 2024, 06:08:25 pm »
"I think we here understand the populist- isolationist and Trumpian reasons that are the primary drivers of the opposition."

I think you have partisan assumptions about what's driving it, which are largely Democratic party propaganda. Started with the whole "Russian collusion" hoax, and despite $35mm spent to find compelling evidence, none was found.

The narrative you are referring to are similar to conservatives who assume that because the Bidens had numerous business deals in Ukraine (a fact), then that must be why Biden wants to preserve Ukraine... both that narrative about Biden, and the narrative you are alluding to about Trump, are windmills of the (partisan) mind.

Believe it or not, there are actually people who honestly don't see a strategic national interest in fighting this particular war. Some are further persuaded that way because of eroding individual rights in Ukraine. I think they're wrong to oppose aid for Ukraine, but I also think both parties have lots of propaganda about Trump and Biden that have no basis in reality.

N0TZU

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #131 : Апреля 27, 2024, 06:57:19 am »
Here are my reasons for saying what I did:

First let me say that I recognize that there are serious people with serious concerns about Ukraine. However they weren’t the ones threatening to call for a vote to start the process of removing Johnson if he accepted Democratic votes to pass the aid. Those were the extreme isolationists/populists (such as Taylor-Greene and friends) who lead the opposition. In the end they didn’t, probably only because the support for the aid bill was high and they would not have succeeded in removing Johnson.

It does appear that Trump has been a little more supportive of Ukraine in the last few days. I sincerely hope it is a lasting change. But Initially he was somewhat critical of Russia for the war but perversely very complimentary of Putin for being so “smart” to invade. He has refused to say which side should win the war. He also made the same populist complaints about support - we should reduce it because it costs too much, it hurts our military, etc. These statements do not give me any confidence that he would support Ukraine as president, and they can only encourage Putin.
« Последнее редактирование: Апреля 27, 2024, 06:15:41 pm от N0TZU »

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #132 : Апреля 27, 2024, 07:38:56 pm »
It does appear that Trump has been a little more supportive of Ukraine in the last few days. I sincerely hope it is a lasting change. But Initially he was somewhat critical of Russia for the war but perversely very complimentary of Putin for being so “smart” to invade. He has refused to say which side should win the war. He also made the same populist complaints about support - we should reduce it because it costs too much, it hurts our military, etc. These statements do not give me any confidence that he would support Ukraine as president, and they can only encourage Putin.

I wouldn't underestimate Trump. While he may compliment pootin, he may not agree with him, but the main problem for Ukraine if Trump is elected will be Zelensky. We know how Trump feels about him. Although everyone is strategically confident in Western support for Ukraine, no one knows what it will look like in practice. Also of great importance for Ukrainians is the situation within the country, which is getting worse every day. Instead of solving old problems, new ones are created according to the principle that if a square object does not fit into a round hole, then you just need to hit it harder with a hammer. But even nails sometimes bend instead of going inside.

US7IGN

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #133 : Апреля 27, 2024, 08:40:49 pm »
The air alarm lasted half the night. Rockets from Tu-95MS and supersonic missiles attacked Stry near Lviv, Prykarpattia and Dnipro. The main overhead line of Ukrenergo in the western region was disconnected due to the protection action. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3gl1053y5ko

Instead, Ukraine attacked an oil refinery and a military airfield in the Krasnodar region. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c72p0rlxd12o

The war in Ukraine, according to many American officials, has become a "testing ground" for a number of rapidly developing military technologies, writes The New York Times. But the American experience in Ukraine has underscored how difficult it is to get 21st-century data into 19th-century trenches. Even with Congress on the brink of providing tens of billions of dollars in aid to Kyiv, mostly in the form of ammunition and long-range artillery, the question remains whether the new technology will be enough to help turn the tide of the war at a moment when the russians appear to have regained momentum. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/23/us/politics/ukraine-new-american-technology.html?searchResultPosition=7

Also, the russians are advancing in the East every day.

I had no electricity for several hours during the day, although I never found out if it was due to the attack.

The sun is shining and it's warm again, and I'm regaining my energy. After lunch, my radio-friends came to visit me and we discussed the situation for a long time. They came to the conclusion that more deaths and destruction await Ukraine in the near future. It was recognized that the enthusiasm to fight decreases with age. This does not apply to those who fight for other people's lives, of course. In my opinion, this is the main problem. If presidents and generals personally had to fight alongside their soldiers, I think all wars would quickly stop.

While the authorities are deciding how to sort Ukrainians according to their suitability for service according to their state of health https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/obmezheno-pridatnih-ukrayintsiv-dilitimut-1714129818.html , business is once again saying that it is losing key specialists due to mobilization, the approach to which remains unchanged https://agrotimes.ua/agromarket/oficzijnyj-biznes-vtrachaye-bron-fahivcziv-shho-zabezpechuyut-vyrobnychyj-czykl/

N0TZU

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Re: Ukraine updates in English
« Ответ #134 : Апреля 28, 2024, 03:15:59 pm »
Perhaps this was already discussed long ago and I don’t recall, but why does conscription ( or voluntary) military service not start at age 18, as it does in most other countries?