On the other hand, the probability of a violent change of power in Ukraine is very small for several reasons. Some believe that to repeat the Maidan, which was in 2014, there was not enough people's discontent, external and internal organizers, money, militants, etc. are needed. In their opinion, the situation looks like this.
External factors, our "partners". They don't need that now, because the Ukrainian authorities are fulfilling the task of burning Ukrainians in the war, which gives them time to become more prepared for a serious confrontation with the russian federation. After the parade in Beijing and a more confident broadcast of the russian federation's intentions, the "partners" are already clear that it, a hot confrontation, will happen, it is not clear in what form. Therefore, the "Ukraine testing ground" and the "Ukraine buffer zone" according to their plans should perform their functions of practicing counteraction to russian weapons and tactics for as long as possible. In parallel, cashback schemes and other lobbying for the production and sale of weapons to Ukraine have already been rolled out, so everyone is doing well. And if the Ukrainian authorities do something wrong or steal a lot, then no one has put the cardboards away - students will wave them again in front of the government building. And of course, sometimes they will, like yesterday in Politico, give them a slap in the face, reminding them of their place.
Internal organizers - here the regime has already come to its senses and reacted in time. Media soldiers (not barbershop clowns, but talented organizers) all received their benefits, and are temporarily loyal to the regime. (Here I have to explain some expressions generated by the war. A barbershop warrior is a person who tries to look like a real soldier who does not shave while being in the trenches for many days. But such people, dressed in camouflage clothes and with a glamorous beard, look more funny than severe). Radicals also receive benefits, tamed and loyal, at the moment, of course. The opposition is ridiculous and helpless. The special services manage to collect money from business, and absorb the budget, and catch spies, and they also destroy russians in large quantities. So the special services are in good shape, loyal more or less - a very important factor against a full-fledged Maidan. Self-organization of people: "The military administration will not agree, and without it there is no way." And also, all men from 25 to 60 years old (and then maybe from 22 (18) to 60) risk getting into a mobilization center on the way to the Maidan venue. Coming to Kyiv for help through checkpoints? Very funny. As they say: "Revolutions are made in capitals, in the provinces it is a riot."
The war factor is also very important, although these scoundrels have already fucked everyone up to ravings, but all sensible citizens understand that there is a chance to miss the front during the unrest, and get a russian regime instead of the Zelensky regime, a kind of change, it's not worth it.
Yes, we have a problem with the front, it has already been officially estimated that 200 thousand have voluntarily left the units and 50 thousand deserted, something like that ... And the russians can still add resources to themselves through allies and mobilization, and add quite a lot so that we will immediately feel very bad ...
Therefore, in the near future we will receive (and are already receiving), of course, if we have time:
- training society in new rituals to increase loyalty and weaken resistance, perhaps "two minutes hate" will be introduced;
- lowering the mobilization age, removing reservations and even from "conyo boy";
- raising taxes and possibly (but not definitely) transferring the economy to military rails;
- several high-profile demonstrative (then they will probably be released) anti-corruption cases and "moving beds".
Of course, such conclusions are only one of the options for the development of events, provided that the situation slowly develops in the same direction, but this does not mean that tomorrow something can change and everything will suddenly turn upside down again as it has happened in the past.
I even heard such a radical idea that the introduction of a traffic stop in the center every day is the first step of technology to turn Ukrainians into cattle. Today you become an entire country for a minute every day, and tomorrow you will be forced to carry a portrait of the Fuhrer and kneel for five minutes and kiss that portrait. And then you will walk in formation and shout "Glory to the Fuhrer, glory to Ukraine". Of course, I do not believe that this is possible in Ukraine, but one story alarmed me.
Kyiv businessman Artur Ponomarev was outraged by the blocking of Khreshchatyk during the minute of silence, calling it a “show-off.” After the criticism, he apologized and assured that he supported Ukraine and was not against commemorating those killed in russian aggression. He later posted several more videos in which he said that he was receiving insults and threats, in particular that he and his loved ones would be sent to war. In addition, he received phone calls from the military, with whom he spoke and "explained his position", as well as employees of the Security Service of Ukraine who came to conduct a "preventive conversation".
https://hromadske.ua/kyyiv/251929-biznesmen-iz-kyyeva-iakyy-nazvav-khvylynu-movchannia-na-khreshchatyku-prymusovoiu-pokazukhoiu-rozpoviv-pro-vizyt-sbu-i-pohrozy-sluzboiuThe point is not even that it is impossible to force people to be patriots or to respect something, but that once again we are most likely dealing with a crude and primitive manipulation to distract people's attention from something else, for example, from the advancement of the russians at the front or blatant corruption. In any case, I would not like Ukraine to turn into a russia in which any disagreement with the authorities ends badly.
Meanwhile, the influence of the state on everything is growing rapidly and the courts are increasingly taking the side of the state when it comes to restricting the rights and freedoms of citizens.
The Supreme Court confirmed that despite the fact that the law "On the Procedure for Citizens' Departure from Ukraine" does not contain restrictions on the right to freely leave Ukraine under martial law, this does not mean that such restrictions cannot be applied on the basis of special laws.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/341821-verkhovnyy-sud-to-chto-zakon-o-poryadke-vyezda-iz-ukrainy-grazhdan-ne-soderzhit-ogranicheniy-prava-svobodno-pokidat-ukrainu-v-usloviyakh-voennogo-polozheniya-ne-oznachaet-chto-takie-ogranicheniya-ne-mogut-primenyatsya-na-osnovanii-spetsialnykh-zakonov I don't know why the deputies simply won't change the relevant laws, but when they need to, everything is done quite quickly.
It is also proposed to amend the law "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law", according to which the head of the military administration will be able to prematurely terminate the powers or dismiss local government officials.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/341753-nachalnik-voennoy-administratsii-smozhet-dosrochno-prekraschat-polnomochiya-dolzhnostnykh-lits-mestnogo-samoupravleniya-izmeneniya-v-zakon-o-voennom-polozheniiForeign investors will be able to be checked for integrity and compliance with national interests by the Ministry of Economy and a commission with representatives of law enforcement agencies. The draft law on screening foreign direct investments has been registered in parliament. It proposes to protect Ukrainian enterprises in strategic areas from being controlled by foreign investors, to introduce an assessment of the impact of foreign investments on national interests and security, and to take into account the factors of integrity and reliability of the investor.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/341837-inostrannykh-investorov-smogut-proveryat-na-dobroporyadochnost-i-sootvetstvie-natsionalnym-interesam-minekonomiki-i-komissiya-s-predstavitelyami-sbu-svr-i-midI would like to believe that these measures will be aimed at preventing russians from entering Ukraine, but won't this lead to even greater corruption and make it more difficult to invest in Ukraine?
The total digitalization that the government is trying to implement is bringing a unique vibe to the country's life. For example, the digital interface of the registry, which is used to keep records of those liable for military service, is regularly out of order.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/341774-u-rezerv-cherez-tekhnichni-problemi-nemozhlivo-onoviti-dani-ta-nadislati-zapitiBut this is the very program that records violations of military registration, a person being wanted, and because of mistakes in which anyone can receive a fine or be detained. Needless to say, in cases of such mistakes, no one compensates for the harm caused to people?
The Ministry of Digital Transformation is also actively working on creating a national language model (LLM) and a chatbot Diya.AI (mobile app, a web portal and a brand of e-governance in Ukraine. The Diia portal allows access to over 130 government services.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DiiaIn total, the technical product team across all areas has 15 people.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/341776-bezopasnost-ostaetsya-postoyannym-vyzovom-v-mintsifry-obyasnili-kak-rabotayut-s-personalnymi-dannymi-pri-sozdanii-natsionalnoy-llm-modeli-i-diyaaiI don't even want to comment on this.
