Форум радиолюбителей Украины
Радио => Основной раздел => Тема начата: US7IGN от Февраля 24, 2024, 07:31:34 pm
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Feb. 24, 2024
Today I learned that the thread about Ukraine in English, which existed on the QRZ.COM forum for exactly two years, was deleted. I'll try to continue it on this forum.
This forum was created when there was a peak of russian influence in Ukraine and the interface was in russian. However, this is not its biggest drawback. The forum has not been supported for a long time, but it works.
How to register:
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After two years of war, support from Western politicians remains mostly lip service. This was expected, but probably not for our politicians, who bet exclusively on Western support.
Projects implemented by the United States Agency for International Development (US AID) in Ukraine are at risk due to a delay in Congress approving additional funding for Ukraine. This was stated by the administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, Samantha Power - https://www.holosameryky.com/a/usaid-poperedzhaje-shcho-jikhni-projekty-v-ukrajini-pid-zahrozoju-cherez-neskhvalennia-kongresom-dopomohy-dlia-ukrajiny/7501176.html
The National Bank optimizes a number of currency restrictions to prevent unproductive capital outflows to protect Ukraine's international reserves and preserve the stability of the foreign exchange market. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-utochniv-nizku-valyutnih-obmejen
Perhaps the business will optimize financial flows, although this may lead to a decrease in the activity of importers and exporters, lead to an increase in the price of goods or their shortage. It should not be forgotten that every restriction worsens the already bad state of the economy.
The Verkhovna Rada approved the presidential law on the release of conscripts into the reserve after completing their military service during martial law.
After martial law and general mobilization were declared in Ukraine, conscripts for military service were not carried out, but conscripts called up for martial law remained in service all this time.
The new law stipulates that military personnel who have served their term of conscript military service will be released to the reserve. A separate presidential decree will be required for this.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cpvr0k4z3x3o
This does not solve the problem of fair mobilization, but it is an important step in that direction. The demobilized can fill the labor market. It is surprising that fair rotation was not implemented immediately as it was after the 2014 invasion. On the other hand, due to the ambiguous perception of the conditions of mobilization in the society, it can also cause additional tension and conflicts between the demobilized and civilians.
Everyone is busy reminiscing about the beginning of the great invasion and comparing the changes in their lives during the last two years of the war. For those for whom the war began in 2014, the situation looks a little different.
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The weather is changing, sometimes it rains, the mood is not very good.
Today it is quiet in Kyiv, which cannot be said about the front-line territories. I have been to almost all corners of Ukraine and I remember many of the cities I am reading about now.
On the night of February 25, the russian terrorists hit with rockets and destroyed the railway station in the city of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region, as well as the church, administrative buildings, private and apartment buildings. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3831866-rosiani-vdarili-s300-po-kostantinivci-na-doneccini-zrujnovanij-vokzal.html
Zelensky gave another interview, which I can't bring myself to watch. It's good that there are people who do it for a good salary and then briefly write what it was about - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68397525 . But these stories sound too unreal to be believed. Somewhere I heard the opinion that the president's faith in victory and the absence of other plans is based on the understanding that in case of defeat he is guaranteed to lose power and very likely his freedom and life. From this point of view, it is really necessary to go to the end. The main thing is to find enough people willing to die for victory.
The government's idea to reduce the number of educational institutions was continued in the form of a proposal to accommodate internal refugees in the vacated premises - https://meta.ua/uk/news/politics/130991-primischennya-optimizovanih-navchalnih-zakladiv-mozhna-vikoristovuvati-dlya-rozmischennya-vpo/ . I thought it would be reasonable to build a new home for them, including with their own resources. I remember the stories of my ancestors who after the WW2 lived in houses built by their own hands. The state provided the materials, and they did everything else themselves. One by one, together they built quickly houses for each other. This solves the problem of housing and employment of people. But I am not a minister and I do not understand this.
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It looks like I’m approved to post here!
Im glad to hear that some steps have been taken to relieve those who have been fighting for so long.
I share the concern about capital controls. As much as possible the economy should be allowed to operate freely. Even in the case that people might partially turn to use euros or dollars, then at least the economy can still function with them. What good is protecting the currency if it gets to the point that nobody wants to use it and the economy grinds to a halt?
That western support has dwindled seems to be from two causes. First, the supply of munitions has been severely depleted. New factory capacity has been approved and is being developed but it takes a long time to deliver the additional munitions.
Second, the ability of the United States to provide additional weapons and ammunition is currently being delayed by the extreme right wing of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives in the name of fiscal responsibility. Since the US is by far the biggest such supplier, this is a terrible problem, plus it makes us look weak to other adversaries and damages our reputation and leadership in the world.
The public here, especially those on the right, do not understand that most of the money allocated for Ukraine goes to American industry to produce the matériels, and their favorite “news” outlets won’t tell them. Hell, even the center-left media doesn’t usually bother to mention it. Many people now rely on their equally misinformed social media friends for news, like a gossips over the backyard fence.
I had breakfast with two fairly conservative friends the other day who were ignorant of this. They are generally well informed, but naturally thought the money was simply shipped to Ukraine. Theyare much more concerned about what they view as a literal war and invasion of refugees across our border with Mexico. While a serious problem, it’s a pimple on a flea compared to what will happen if Putin succeeds.
(Denver, capitol of Colorado, is having to reduce some services because of budget money being spent to care for tens of thousands of refugees and asylum seekers that have arrived here over the last year. They were bussed here by the governor of Texas so they don’t have to pay for them).
I hope that the less extreme Republicans in the House will join with a few Democrats to convince the Speaker to allow the Ukraine funding. But I also think it quite possible that Trump will loudly torpedo any such attempt as he did with the bill to modernize part of our woefully antiquated immigration laws. The reason being that he wants it to be a campaign issue against Biden, and then be able to “fix it” when he is in office.
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Hi Wlad,
I'm glad you found another way of communications. I hope all the other "usual suspects" will find this place too. I cannot remember all the calls from the top of my head and maybe you have pointed them to this place already. Otherwise I'd be glad to help.
73, Meindert - PA0MHS
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Hello my friends!
I am very happy to see you here. May be not the best place, but there are any restriction except terrorists and their supporters. I don't know how to inform others from QRZ.COM about this place, I posted the link on my page there. I hope someone else from Ukraine also will join us.
The weather is so great today! The sun is shining, it's warm and the birds are singing. I was able to chat with Colin G3ZAF and Tony M7TPA and have a quick QSO with Martin PP5WX on 28. The last two had only 25 watts.
The economy has its own laws that work regardless of the wishes of politicians, and those of them who do not understand this only make things worse. Over the past week, the National Bank of Ukraine has increased the sale of foreign currency, and banks have brought even more cash dollars and euros into Ukraine. Ukrainians have long been accustomed to inflation and other problems that the government constantly creates for them, so they have learned to live separately from it, perceiving it as an inevitable natural disaster. The fact that the government is almost never held accountable makes it very difficult to protect people's rights. Wounded and relatives of dead soldiers will now be especially vulnerable in case of any material claims. Even if you receive a court decision in your favor, you will not be able to collect anything from the state.
I must admit that the conditions of the social contract are very specific in a terrorist state, but at least they are always fulfilled and people believe and trust the authorities in this. As well as their relations with allies. Instead, it seems to me that the United States has lost confidence in itself on the part of most of the world.
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Hi Wlad,
I registered two days ago and forum said I had to wait for administrator.
Today, I just logged in and I guess it all worked. I didn't receive anything from the site.
I am glad to be able to say hello again.
73
Jaye
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I am glad to be able to say hello again.
73
Jaye
You are welcome Jaye!
It's spring again in Kyiv. The sun is shining and it's warm.
Two more russian planes were shot down today, eight in a week. Of course, this reduces the russians' capabilities in the air, but the concern remains that every day Ukrainian troops are retreating little by little on the ground. This site shows situation on the front line https://deepstatemap.live/#10/48.1400/37.4648
On the occasion of the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by russian troops, the Office of the President of Ukraine organized the "Ukraine-2024" Forum, or, as presidential spokesman Serhii Nikiforov said in the announcement, "an honest conversation about our way forward." According to the plan, something similar to a press conference or discussion should have taken place. But the schedule of the event was so short that there was no discussion, and the journalists rarely had time to ask questions to the speakers. Part of the communication took place behind the scenes, and many journalists who could ask uncomfortable questions were not allowed in at all. According to the journalists, what was announced as a serious and mature conversation with society turned into a series of briefing reports, where key officials from different directions showed presentations with various good numbers and talked about success in their work. And almost no chance to ask questions, except for a few comments from those who managed to catch after the performances. In a word, the "serious adult" conversation resembled a parade of briefings on the topic "what have I been doing for the past two years." https://detector.media/infospace/article/223495/2024-02-27-forum-ukraina-2024-yak-proyshla-chesna-rozmova-vlady-z-narodom/
Zelensky also gave an interview to CNN, in which he stated that Trump does not know Putin, and that without US aid, Ukraine will not only struggle to make any new gains on the battlefield, but it will also find it difficult to keep defending itself this year. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/26/europe/zelensky-interview-ukraine-war-aid-trump-intl/index.html
Iran has provided russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, six sources told Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/
French President Emmanuel Macron has said it is key for Europe's security to defeat russia in Ukraine, amid urgent pleas for more weapons from Kyiv. He was speaking in Paris where he said that European leaders had agreed to set up a coalition to give Ukraine medium- and long-range missiles and bombs. He added that there was "no consensus" on sending Western troops to Ukraine but "nothing should be excluded". https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68410219
These statements caused a mixed reaction and most European leaders, the White House and NATO immediately denied the intention to send their troops to Ukraine.
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As for the situation inside the country, business was again attacked by law enforcement officers. Court applied to the former People's Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Serhiy Pashynsky a preventive measure in the form of detention with the alternative of paying a bail of UAH 272.520 million. The politician is suspected of illegal possession of oil products. Instead, Pashynsky himself rejects the accusations and calls them "provocations by the russian special services through corrupt law enforcement agencies in Ukraine" in order to discredit and block his work as the head of the National Association of Defense Industry Enterprises of Ukraine in organizing the supply of ammunition to the Armed Forces. https://www.dw.com/uk/vaks-zaarestuvav-pasinskogo-z-alternativou-vnesenna-272-mln-grn-zastavi/a-68379029?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
Personally, I do not see the persecution as accidental, since Pashynsky was part of the team of former President Poroshenko.
One of the largest chains of medical laboratories, Sinevo Ukraine, reported on February 27 that the State Bureau of Investigation seized its head office and the building of the central laboratory. As a result, the company said that its laboratories will be forced to stop working. The State Bureau of Investigation, for its part, noted that they did not want to interfere with the work of the laboratory. Currently, both parties are trying to resolve the issue of the seizure of the company's office.
https://24tv.ua/sinevo-aresht-ofisu-27-lyutogo-kompaniya-dosyagla-zgodi-dbr-pro_n2503681
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Hi Wlad,
Thanks for the updates again.
I found a thread on QRZ that was sort of a precursor to the recently deleted thread:
https://forums.qrz.com/index.php?conversations/we-support-ukraine.657358/
This thread contains a list of all conversation participants and if you click on the picture of each entry, it takes you to the QRZ page of that amateur. Most of them have an e-mail address listed, so you could send them an invitation to join this forum. If you want help with that, it would be my pleasure.
73, Meindert
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Hi Wlad,
Thanks for the updates again.
I found a thread on QRZ that was sort of a precursor to the recently deleted thread:
https://forums.qrz.com/index.php?conversations/we-support-ukraine.657358/
This thread contains a list of all conversation participants and if you click on the picture of each entry, it takes you to the QRZ page of that amateur. Most of them have an e-mail address listed, so you could send them an invitation to join this forum. If you want help with that, it would be my pleasure.
73, Meindert
Thank you Meindert!
I think it’s better not to write anything more on QRZ.COM. I posted a link to this thread on my page there and everyone who was really interested in the disappearance of the original thread has already asked me about it. I don't want to seem intrusive.
Today I spent the whole day listening to a conference organized by a friend of mine who went to Scotland and is trying to continue his legal practice there. It mostly interested me because there were a lot of speakers there that I know personally. I discovered that my English is not so bad at the level of other colleagues from Ukraine and is clearly better than those who do not know it at all.
However, the topics and conversations were mainly about digital assets and their regulation. Perhaps this is the only thing that was not damaged by the war in Ukraine. But the experience of colleagues from Great Britain and their legislation was very interesting.
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In the evening I checked the news and found that China and Turkey have stepped up diplomacy aimed at ending the war. Other news is even worse.
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, February 28. Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning announced on the 28th: Li Hui, the special representative of the Chinese government for Eurasian affairs, will visit russia, the headquarters of the European Union, Poland, Ukraine, Germany and France, starting from March 2. He will contribute to the political conduct of the second round of shuttle diplomacy to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. http://www.news.cn/world/20240228/8c4ce9782f2747f0a25a031ed5ddcb71/c.html
Erdoğan: Diplomacy and dialogue should be given a chance to end Russia-Ukraine war
During a video message to the Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan underscored that diplomacy and dialogue should be given a chance to end the war. "I still hold firm to my belief that utilizing diplomacy and dialogue is key in achieving a just and enduring resolution to the war," Erdoğan stressed in his comments. https://www.anews.com.tr/diplomacy/2024/02/28/erdogan-diplomacy-and-dialogue-should-be-given-a-chance-to-end-russia-ukraine-war
The European Commission proposes to direct the assets of the russian rederation to weapons for the Armed Forces. According to Ursula von der Leyen, the purchase of weapons for Ukraine at the expense of profits from frozen russian funds will bring the greatest benefit to the security of Europe. https://www.dw.com/uk/evrokomisia-proponue-spramuvati-aktivi-rf-na-zbrou-dla-zsu/a-68394954?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
At a repair base in Ukraine, mechanics patched together Western artillery guns using parts scavenged from the battered carcasses of some 20 damaged howitzers scattered outside. The need to create such “Frankenguns” comes after two years of war that have meant many of the weapons donated by the West are now destroyed, damaged or in need of new components. https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-plunders-howitzer-graveyard-to-keep-big-guns-firing-94967fee
Farmers' protests will not fade away. Disinformation and the EU's communication disaster are to blame.
Farmers' anger is the result of the lack of consultations on the Green Deal, and the ongoing protests across the EU are of a dignity nature. EU officials are reaping the rewards of their nonchalance - the implementation of the Green Deal is in question. Russian disinformation is also contributing. https://www.rp.pl/rolnictwo/art39910901-protesty-rolnikow-nie-wygasna-winne-dezinformacja-i-katastrofa-komunikacyjna-unii
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Yesterday my blood pressure rose again and I had a headache, so I went to bed early. Today it is already easier, although there is a burning smell in the air and they announced that it is better not to go outside. Apparently some natural fires outside Kyiv. There have been no air raid raids for a couple of days now. Apparently the terrorists have changed their tactics again, or the lack of downed A-50 aircraft, which previously provided support for missile attacks, is having an effect. Perhaps because of their absence, attacks on russian planes that bombed the front and cities near the front line were also successful. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/02/29/novyna/bezpeka/povitryani-syly-zbyly-shhe-dva-rosijski-su-34
Nevertheless, the Russians continue to put pressure on the front, and at the same time bomb all the cities they can reach. As a result of the rocket attack on Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region, on the night of March 1, at least 18 civilian objects were damaged, in particular, a hospital and kindergartens. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/03/01/novyna/suspilstvo/raketnyj-udar-rf-po-kostyantynivczi-poshkodzheno-budynky-likarnyu-ta-dytsadky
Ukrainians whose homes were damaged as a result of the armed aggression of the russian federation have received the first billion hryvnias from the state for major repairs under the compensation program. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to the head of the Committee on the Organization of State Power, Local Self-Government, Regional Development and Urban Planning, head of the "Servant of the People" party, Olena Shulyak. According to her, Ukrainians have submitted 5,053 applications for this type of compensation, and 4,733 applicants have already agreed to pay a total of 1.6 billion hryvnias. Moreover, 83% of the owners of houses that were severely damaged have already received these compensations, and the total amount of payments reached 1 billion hryvnias (approximately 25 million dollars). https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/derzhava-pererahuvala-ukrayintsyam-kapitalni-1709316544.html
This is good, but something tells me that the destruction is happening much faster than the restoration. However, these figures do not say anything about the real number of victims, not all of whom filed claims, nor about the amounts of compensation relative to the amount of damage. I love statistics. It can convince you that you are full even if you haven't eaten for three days.
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Ukraine has already signed six security agreements with European countries. The list includes Great Britain, Germany, France, Denmark, Canada, and Italy. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to the Telegram of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/ukrayina-pidpisala-bezpekovi-ugodi-vzhe-iz-1709281408.html
The good thing about this news is that Ukraine has signed a bunch of worthless agreements (remember, for example, the Budapest Memorandum) and that this news is posted on the russian Telegram messenger, which the parliament is unsuccessfully trying to ban in Ukraine, but the president continues to use it.
Another interview was given by Ukrainian military intelligence chief Lt.-Gen. Kyrylo Budanov. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-war-budanov-1.7127990
He doesn't say much to the point, but sometimes you can read something between the lines. Instead, it is more important what he will do next. It seems to me that he already has more real power and opportunities than most politicians, and his publicity looks suspicious.
It's funny to read about the failure of the counteroffensive because the russians found out about it. It was advertised by everyone, including the president, at least six months before the start, and the soldiers said that they stood at the starting positions for weeks and everyone knew about them.
In his annual state of the nation address, President pootin accused the West of trying to drag russia into an arms race and has warned Western countries against sending troops to Ukraine. The consequences of such a decision would be "tragic", he said. He also said that an "absolute majority" of russians supported his decision to invade Ukraine, and that the russian people were now united against what he called Western attempts to weaken the country. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68435163
Those who disagree today came to Navalny’s funeral. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68450219
If all over the world he is considered the personification of "good russians", then Ukrainians remember all his statements regarding Ukraine. If you think you know a "good russian", just ask him how he feels about returning all russian-occupied territories to his neighbors and compensating for the damage caused.
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Today it is warm and sunny again, but the news from the front, where everything is steadily bad, does not allow us to be happy. There is little information, but it is impossible to hide the slow retreat. A woman and her three-month-old child became the victims of the russian drone attack on Odesa. Currently, seven people are known to have died as a result of an enemy strike. https://hromadske.radio/news/2024/03/02/znayshly-tila-mamy-ta-nemovliaty-kilkist-zhertv-v-odesi-zrosla-do-simokh
Today I read that as a result of uncontrolled use of self-made means of radio-electronic warfare, own drone operators began to suffer, whose signals are also jammed. As well as Starlinks and GPS. Without proper coordination and skill, soldiers turn into a regular mob with the same effectiveness. Instead, everything ends only with the replacement of commanders. The President also believes that every day the Commander-in-Chief and commanders should be at the front, exactly where they are needed. https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/vsi-komandiri-mayut-znati-front-zelenskij-dav-sirskomu-kart-blansh-na-kadrovi-zmini-v-zsu.htm
They say that two more russian planes were shot down. It seems that some new weapon is being used, against which the terrorists have not yet found a countermeasure. But again, this does not affect the situation as a whole and cannot compensate for the lack of fortifications or artillery and other ground combat vehicles.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that NATO might have to send troops to Ukraine made things worse. According to French officials, Macron’s comments were meant to galvanize Western powers and ignite debate over what’s needed to prevent a russian victory. But if the French leader’s remarks were meant to send a firm warning to the Kremlin, they failed spectacularly — in fact, they achieved the complete opposite. To the Kremlin’s chortling delight, Macron’s comments exposed Western splits and rifts, communicating panic over the military state of play in Ukraine. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraines-dire-position-emmanuel-macron-gaffe-made-things-worse/
A political scandal erupted in Ukraine due to the fact that the opposition, represented by ex-president Petro Poroshenko, complained to the EU about the authorities violating their rights to unimpeded travel abroad. The authorities did not like it, because, they say, it can harm the process of joining the EU - they say, you should not complain to Brussels about internal problems.
However, it is precisely this policy of the state towards the opposition that can harm European integration. And numerous cases of very strange bans on Petro Poroshenko are noticed in the European Union. And it was even mentioned in a separate resolution of the European Parliament. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4nkev3g75zo
What can we say about ordinary people, if even leading politicians and very rich people are limited in their basic rights. It is unclear just how this brings Ukraine's victory in the war closer?
My wife found yesterday that the battery in the car was discharged, but this is not a problem for someone who has lived so many years with a radio amateur. Today she charged it from the power supply unit of the transceiver.
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Today I noticed that during the day there was no air alert in Kyiv. But the siren turned on right now.
Terrorists dropped a bomb on Kurakhovo https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/rosiyani-skinuli-aviabombu-tsentr-kurahovogo-1709474988.html near the front, which will be the next Avdiivka. Avdiivka is now being bombed by the Ukrainian military. I have been to this unfortunate city many times, but for some reason I remembered how it looks from above. Planes landed at the Donetsk airport near Avdiyivka, and especially in the dark it was clearly visible how brightly the yellow-red torch of its coke-chemical plant burns.
In Odessa, the body of a 10-year-old boy was found from under the rubble of the destroyed entrance of a high-rise building. Rescuers are also trying to unblock the body of an 8-year-old girl. The number of dead after the russian strike increased to 12 people. https://hromadske.ua/posts/v-odesi-zrosla-kilkist-zhertv-pislya-rosijskogo-udaru-z-pid-zavaliv-distali-tilo-she-odniyeyi-ditini
pootin sent his spies to the West under the guise of fugitives from mobilization, writes The Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russians-keep-turning-up-dead-all-over-the-world-6acc8990?mod=Searchresults_pos3&page=1. It seems that in the West they will never understand that there are no good russians. Even if they really escaped, the FSB will always find a way to intimidate them or buy them and use them for their own purposes.
The Chinese envoy is on his second trip to Europe promoting a political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, a tour that will also include Poland, Ukraine and Germany. China is ready to "continue its efforts to promote peace talks, mediate and build consensus among Russia, Ukraine and other relevant parties, and promote a final political settlement of the Ukraine crisis," China's foreign ministry said in a readout from the meeting. https://www.reuters.com/world/moscow-says-russia-china-agree-that-russia-must-be-present-ukraine-talks-2024-03-02/
Turkey hopes talks for a ceasefire in Ukraine will start soon, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Sunday, at the end of a diplomatic forum in the southern city of Antalya. Fidan met his russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, on Friday on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum. He told reporters he had discussed a number of issues with Lavrov, including Ukraine.
"On the issue of Ukraine, our view is that both sides have reached the limits of what they can get by war. We think that it is time to start a dialogue for a ceasefire," Fidan said.
"That doesn't mean recognising the occupation (by russia), but issues of sovereignty and ceasefire should be discussed separately."
https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-hopes-ukraine-ceasefire-talks-can-start-soon-2024-03-03/
I see the intensification of the diplomatic efforts of russia's allies against the background of statements by the leaders of Western European leaders about further support for Ukraine. But this complex and multi-level political game gives hope for some solution other than the final destruction of Ukraine.
As the throne wobbles more and more under Zelensky, he and his entourage try to maintain power by calling any criticism a russian disinformation campaign. This point of view is supported by Bloomberg journalists. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-03/ukraine-braced-for-russian-disinformation-attacks-on-zelenskiy Well, maybe they should come to Ukraine and live here for a while. However, money has no smell.
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Today, despite the good weather, there is a strong solar storm and I feel so bad that I went to rest during the day and quietly fell asleep. There is no propagation and I even missed talking to Colin. Reading the news again did not bring anything good.
A series of swift russian advances have challenged Ukraine’s new line of defense set up after their withdrawal from the key town of Avdiivka and are raising fears about Kyiv’s tactics and momentum on the front lines. The russian advances come in the face of a deep crisis in munitions for the Ukrainian military, creating a near-existential debate for frontline troops who must ration ammunition and are questioning how long they can withstand russian pressure.
In another sign of the mounting sense of unease, the new commander of the Ukrainian military, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, twice in the past week scolded his subordinate officers for poor performance on this key front line. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/04/europe/russia-ukraine-vulnerable-defenses-avdiivka-intl/index.html
From what I hear from others, there are practically no lines of defense. Well, at least the ones that would have been done professionally and not dug up by soldiers with shovels. They say because no civilian contractor wants to deal with government contracts. You won't necessarily get money, but you are guaranteed to get a variety of problems. The state is also in no hurry to do this on its own, although previously a large amount of construction equipment was purchased for large-scale road construction. Apparently it continues to build roads. As Zelensky said before the invasion in 2022: “In addition to theoretical things, calls, laws, parliamentary resolutions, there is a very pragmatic story. We can increase the army by two or three times, but then, for example, we will not be able to build roads. This is a problem for us.” https://censor.net/ru/n3317208
I don’t know how swearing and replacing subordinate officers will help compensate for the lack of fortifications and weapons.
In USA the Supreme Court on Monday handed a sweeping win to former President Donald Trump by ruling that states cannot kick him off the ballot over his actions leading up to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol — bringing a swift end to a case with huge implications for the 2024 election. By deciding the case on that legal question, the court avoided any analysis or determination of whether Trump's actions constituted an insurrection. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-rules-trump-cannot-kicked-colorado-ballot-rcna132291.
In Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, senior officials believe that the big powers in Western Europe still hold an unfair bias against them, in particular given their tough positions toward russia following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The view in the region of russia as an existential threat is often interpreted by their Western counterparts as hawkishness. https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-eastern-european-union-rutte-secretary-general-commission-russia-ukraine-war-defense/
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Government reform is planned in Ukraine. The changes will involve the reduction of ministries by a third. Such a statement was made by the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal at a press conference on March 4. According to the official, the Cabinet of Ministers is currently working on changing the format of the government. Shmygal added that 20,000 vacancies have already been cut. Also, according to him, work is underway to create the so-called Government Center, which will combine auxiliary and administrative functions. https://trueua.info/news/shmigal-anonsuvav-skorochennya-tretini-ministerstv
Previously, such reforms always ended with renaming and in fact the appearance of even more officials, but this time it is obviously a forced measure due to lack of money.
Also, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, said that the Cabinet of Ministers will allocate additional funds to finance the country's defense needs. They plan to "find" the money through an audit and verification of expenses. https://war.hvylya.net/uk/288828-mobilizaciya-i-novoe-nastuplenie-gde-kabmin-planiruet-nayti-sredstva-na-finansirovanie-vsu
Since the beginning of this year, Ukrainians have been withdrawing their money from banks. Although it is only a few percent compared to what remains on bank deposits, the outflow of money is measured in tens of billions of hryvnias. Seasonality, which will soon pass, and the monetization of all negative forecasts regarding the situation at the front and in the economy are cited as reasons.
The end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 were marked by several initiatives of the government and parliament, the introduction of which may strengthen the state's control over the incomes and accounts of citizens, or even mean their blocking altogether. The outflow of deposits could also be connected with the new bill on mobilization.
So far, these are only plans, but even their presence in the authorities and the fact that similar initiatives continue to appear, may affect the desire of Ukrainians to "show" their income on bank accounts. However, they can be guided by a tactic that is more understandable and proven by decades of crises and instability - to convert the hryvnia into foreign currency.
That is, at the beginning of 2024, the population and businesses withdrew hryvnias from their bank accounts and used them to buy dollars and euros. People are so used to saving an extra penny against devaluation for "a bad day", and businesses need currency for imports. In 2023, Ukraine imported almost twice as much as it exported. And in 2024, the cost of imports may increase due to problems with the passage of goods on the western borders of Ukraine, primarily with Poland. In January 2024, the net acquisition of cash foreign currency by the population (the difference between sales and purchases) was a record 0.9 billion dollars. In 2023, up to 20 million Ukrainians out of the 30-31 million who are currently in the territory controlled by Ukraine will live in poverty and on less than $200 a month. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cgx5qdk148lo
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In Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, senior officials believe that the big powers in Western Europe still hold an unfair bias against them, in particular given their tough positions toward russia following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The view in the region of russia as an existential threat is often interpreted by their Western counterparts as hawkishness. https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-eastern-european-union-rutte-secretary-general-commission-russia-ukraine-war-defense/
In my view, the more "doveish" attitudes of Western Europeans also has consistently been directed toward the US and NATO. This promotes among some the (incorrect) perception that we shouldn't bother with defending Europe since they don't think they are threatened, and don't want to pay for their share of defense in any case. Putin, and his admirer Trump, exploit this to the nth degree.
I hope you will feel better tomorrow.
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In USA the Supreme Court on Monday handed a sweeping win to former President Donald Trump by ruling that states cannot kick him off the ballot over his actions leading up to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol — bringing a swift end to a case with huge implications for the 2024 election. By deciding the case on that legal question, the court avoided any analysis or determination of whether Trump's actions constituted an insurrection. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-rules-trump-cannot-kicked-colorado-ballot-rcna132291.
This result was widely expected, if for no other reason, because of the electoral chaos that would ensue if each state could make such a determination.
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We will soon find out how the world will react to the results of the primaries, and today the weather is the same as yesterday, but I feel better. Again there is no propagation and I am writing a book, soldering a little, watching professional webinars and of course I had my morning walk.
At night, another terrorist ship was sunk near Crimea. The situation with Crimea is quite complicated. Germany, the United States and Britain continue to discuss the consequences of a leaked conversation (which was published by russia) between high-ranking officers of the German armed forces, during which they could talk about the prospect of missile strikes on the Kerch bridge in Crimea, the training of the Ukrainian military and the presence of Western military on the territory of Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c72kly9glppo
I do not rule out that this could be a joint affair of the special services of Germany and russia, since it is obviously in favor of russia (making the conversation public allows the Kremlin to destabilize the situation, the leak embarrasses Berlin and could cause a rift in German society as well as among the Allies), and also gives Germany (in the person of its chancellor Scholz) another reason to refuse to provide its Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.
The problem of lack of weapons is objective and global, although now Ukraine suffers the most because of it. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3g4lr45v3lo
Today I heard that shells appeared again at the Ukrainian artillerymen. But this information is not confirmed and the map with the front line will show everything in the near future. I haven't watched it in recent days because I don't want to get upset.
There were no air alarms today and this day can be considered good.
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Good to keep reading your updates Wlad.
Is there a "notification" button that will send me a message when new posts on this thread?
Today I am meeting with fellow ham who lost his home to fire last year. This week he was able to revive two HT's and has ordered a new mobile vhf/uhf radio. I helped him select a high gain dual band antenna. I told him I have coax! My friend two years ago died, and I ended up with a new roll of low loss coax--so this will help my friend build a home station. I also have tower sections so he can put it up at his new house, but will also be great to run and EFHW HF. I'm going to urge him to get his general class. Test is about 10 days away, but he is sharp and I know he can cram study and pass the test.
Glad you are feeling better my friend. My surgery is still healing (from January) and pain is less each day now.
Have been busy helping my radio club and catching up on so many things I set aside in January, so I haven't had hardly ANY time on HF during daylight with DX is good. . .
We've had over 3' (3 meters) of rain since 1Oct2023! Today, no rain and I hope we can dry out a little bit. My back yard is more of a pond than a grassy yard! :)
73
Jaye
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Hi Jaye!
It is good to hear from you! I wish you a quick recovery!
This forum is old and primitive without any support, but it looks like there is a notification function here. I've highlighted the button.
You have a lot of news, but be careful with your activity until you recover from your illness. I hope, thanks to you, our community will be replenished with another radio amateur. Good job!
In Ukraine, the number of radio amateurs has decreased significantly and it does not seem that it will increase. This is a completely unrepresentative sample, but it shows the dynamics of changes in the number of participants from Ukraine in CQ WW CW.
2023 - 174
2022 - 93
2021 - 302
2020 - 302
2019 - 315
2014 - 311
2013 - 360
2012 - 336
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It got colder again and today there was an air raid warning in Kyiv. When there is a threat of a ballistic missile attack, an air raid alert is sounded throughout the country because no one knows where exactly it will strike. This time again in Odessa. The strike destroyed another terminal in the port, but on the same day Zelensky was in Odessa with the Prime Minister of Greece, who was shown a previously destroyed residential building. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68492688
Of course they decided that they were the target. I’m not sure about this, because there is no point in the russians killing Zelensky because each next president will be a worse option for them.
Farmer protests continue in Poland, although I have doubts that these are real farmers and not slackers hired by the russians. Real farmers are now working in the fields.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban wants to discuss how to end Russia’s war on Ukraine this week with former US President Donald Trump in Florida, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said.
Orban, the Kremlin’s closest ally in the European Union, held up aid from the bloc for Ukraine’s defense against the Russian invasion, while maintaining cordial relations with Vladimir Putin. The prospect of another Trump presidency has raised concerns among European leadership, including Ukraine’s, about the EU’s ability to respond to the war and Russian influence.
Orban has been trying to curry favor with Trump, seeing his return to the White House as a way to ease Hungary’s diplomatic isolation after disputes with NATO and EU allies brought pressure from the Biden administration and a group of bipartisan US lawmakers. The meeting with Trump will also focus on bilateral ties between Hungary and the US, Szijjarto said.
Talks to end the war are inevitable because “Kyiv can’t defeat Russia,” and “Russia can’t defeat the entire West,” Szijjarto said in an interview with state-run Russian media service RIA Novosti on Wednesday. While Orban has called for an immediate cease-fire, he’s offered no other plans for bringing the war, already in its third year, to an end. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-06/hungary-s-orban-wants-to-discuss-ukraine-with-trump-in-florida
Olena Zelenska, Ukraine’s first lady, declined an invitation from the White House to attend Thursday’s State of the Union address, forgoing one of Washington’s most dignified events and underscoring the complicated politics facing her war-torn country. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/05/state-of-the-union-olena-zelenska-yulia-navalnaya/
According to one version, Zelenskaya did not want to be at this event together with Navalna, who also refused to participate in this event, and according to another version, this is a consequence of the attempts of the Ukrainian authorities to find a common language with Trump and the reluctance to irritate him by maintaining relations with Biden. In any case, this is another diplomatic failure.
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It seems that the main news of the day today is the appointment of Zaluzhny as ambassador to Great Britain. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/kuleba-prokomentuvav-priznachennya-zaluzhnogo-poslom-rishennya-yake-vidpovidaye-interesam-ukrayini-2530108.html
The leadership of the country and the army talk about defensive structures and even about preparations for another counteroffensive, but the residents of the frontline cities are leaving them. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68493215
In the West, digging trenches by soldiers is also considered not effective enough. Especially taking into account the fact that soldiers are forced to do this instead of fighting. https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-enters-new-phase-of-war-with-russia-dig-dig-dig-3bd24f73?mod=hp_lead_pos7
For the first time in the third year of the full-scale war, a video of how the russian invaders destroyed the Ukrainian M142 HIMARS missile and artillery system appeared. https://censor.net/ua/r3477237
Thus, distances of approximately 40 km from the front line can no longer be considered safe.
Tonight, at 01:35, the domain name registrar Network Solutions suddenly and without any warning blocked the ukr.net domain. As a result, the UKR.NET news feed and @UKR.NET e-mail became unavailable to Internet users. By the evening, its work was resumed, but this is the largest news aggregator site and e-mail provider in Ukraine, and this again raises the question of how confident one can be in the Internet and electronic communications, on which the whole modern world is holding on.
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Today was a difficult day and I was very tired. International Women's Day is still a popular holiday in Ukraine and I wrote a lot of messages to lady friends.
I finally finished and gave away another refurbished audio amplifier. https://audiokarma.org/forums/index.php?threads/sony-ta-8650-restoration.1049093/page-2#post-16982678
The meeting with a girl who needed help figuring out the settings and control of the recorder for Cicely’s next project turned out to be very interesting. Ada has been involved in a charity project for two years now and we had a lot to talk about. This is the first time I have encountered such a deep understanding of the situation in Ukraine from a foreigner. However, you can watch her interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23asIhJ_tmc
Yes, I taught her how to use a voice recorder. The weather was warm and the sun was shining, my walk today was the first time in company and therefore was doubly pleasant.
The embassies of the United States and Great Britain in russia said that extremist attacks on large gatherings are planned in the russian federation in the next two days. Diplomatic institutions have advised their citizens to refrain from attending such events. https://hromadske.ua/posts/posolstva-kilkoh-krayin-poperedili-svoyih-gromadyan-pro-mozhlivi-napadi-ekstremistiv-u-rf#user=Yustina-Lisova
The company UkrNet published a message about the reasons for blocking its service the day before yesterday. Looks like a abuse of process. This is a common thing in Ukraine, but it is surprising that this was done using a US court. https://www.ukr.net/news/details/companies/38.html
Soon, in March 2024, Ukraine will receive the first tranche under the Ukraine Facility program in the amount of 4.5 billion euros, said Executive Vice President of the European Commission Valdis Dombrovskis at a joint briefing with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-dombrovskis-yevrokomisiya-dopomoha-ukrayina-transh/32854046.html
Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday during closed-door meeting. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/turkish-president-erdogan-meets-with-ukraine-s-zelenskyy/3159465
The Presidential Office hosted a briefing chaired by Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak on the security situation in Ukraine and other topical issues for the delegation of the People's Republic of China headed by Li Hui, Special Representative of the Chinese Government for Eurasian Affairs. https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/andrij-yermak-proviv-brifing-dlya-delegaciyi-kitayu-na-choli-89577
Mutual frustrations arise in U.S.-Ukraine alliance. Ukrainian officials are disheartened about stalled aid. The Pentagon wants Kyiv to heed its advice on how to fight. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/07/us/politics/ukraine-us-military-frustrations.html
Biden said that Trump's recent statement about not protecting NATO countries who didn't pay their required amount for the treaty organization was "outrageous."
Trump responded to Biden on Truth Social: “Putin only invaded Ukraine, because he has no respect for Biden. Would have never happened under the Trump Administration, and for four years it didn’t happen!” https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-rips-biden-over-leaving-late-state-union-address-slams-his
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The dismissal of Zaluzhny and his deputy has a piquant detail. So far these are rumors that are being spread on the Internet, but there has not yet been an official refutation of the publications. Two separate sources of the "Ukainska Pravda" confirmed that Shaptala, like the ex-commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, were dismissed based on the conclusion of the Military Medical Commission (MMC) that they were unfit for military service and removed from military records. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/shaptala-zvilnivsya-z-viyskovoji-sluzhbi-razom-iz-zaluzhnim-novini-ukrajini-50399706.html
The activities of these medical commissions are a source of constant scandals, because healthy people can receive documents exempting them from military service for a bribe, while sick people can go to the front. Moreover, a soldier can leave the army only in exceptional cases, including upon the conclusion of a medical commission. However, in practice this is only possible for those who have lost limbs or are seriously injured. Most of the soldiers are returned to the front after treatment.
In the case of the generals, this looks like an excellent demonstration of injustice and inconsistency with what the authorities declare and how they actually act. There have already been jokes asking the question - if they were so sick, how were they allowed to lead the entire army? And if these conclusions are false, will commission members and evaders be punished as is the case with ordinary people?
I hope this information is not true, but...
The Ukrainian ambassador to China is being ignored, although this is one of the key countries that can have a decisive influence on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/china-spurns-ukraine-diplomats-at-home-undermining-peace-push
France is building an alliance of countries open to potentially sending Western troops to Ukraine — and in the process deepening its clash with a more cautious Berlin. https://www.politico.eu/article/france-finds-baltic-allies-in-its-spat-with-germany-over-ukraine-aid-sikorski-nato-macron-troops-war/
It is obvious that each country primarily pursues its own interests, but such activity by France looks like an attempt to seize leadership in subsequent influence on Ukraine.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and the chairmen of key House committees dealing with national security are working to develop their own Ukraine aid package, an alternative that they hope can pass Congress without alienating conservatives who oppose further funding for the war-torn country.
Among the proposals being floated is treating some of the nonmilitary aid as a type of loan, said House Foreign Affairs Chairman Mike McCaul, R-Texas, who is involved in the discussions, and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. Economic aid to support the general function of Ukraine’s government and its long-term rebuilding efforts would be subject to a loan under this plan. russian assets seized by the U.S. government through sanctions could also be used as collateral for loans to the Ukrainians, McCaul said, adding that the plan could also have a generous repayment system to help Ukraine.
Offering up loans as part of the package is designed to help ease the concerns of House conservatives who have criticized billions in U.S. aid for Ukraine and said they will not support sending further U.S. taxpayer dollars without a long-term plan to win the war.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-republicans-consider-loan-program-ukraine-aid-rcna142562
Ukraine’s credit rating was cut by S&P Global Ratings, which said it’s a “virtual certainty” the government will include holders of Eurobonds in its debt-relief efforts. The agency cut the war-torn nation by two notches to CC, the second-lowest level above default. The agency said the outlook was negative, according to a Friday statement. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-08/ukraine-cut-by-s-p-as-restructuring-is-virtual-certainty
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Giving US loans to allies as a way to satisfy obstructionist isolationists and misers in Congress has a long history. It was particularly effective preceding and during WW2.
The obstructionists can rationalize that it’s only a loan, and the ally gets the money immediately. Of course the loans are usually paid back in the distant future (inflation…) if at all, or are eventually forgiven. Whatever it’s called, Congress needs to approve Ukraine funding as soon as possible.
Some countries paid their WW2 debts to the US, notably the UK, last payment in 2006, about 60 years later. The USSR paid some of their debt back prior to the dissolution, with Russia now officially the debtor for the balance. (Good luck collecting).
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Giving US loans to allies as a way to satisfy obstructionist isolationists and misers in Congress has a long history. It was particularly effective preceding and during WW2.
The obstructionists can rationalize that it’s only a loan, and the ally gets the money immediately. Of course the loans are usually paid back in the distant future (inflation…) if at all, or are eventually forgiven. Whatever it’s called, Congress needs to approve Ukraine funding as soon as possible.
Some countries paid their WW2 debts to the US, notably the UK, last payment in 2006, about 60 years later. The USSR paid some of their debt back prior to the dissolution, with Russia now officially the debtor for the balance. (Good luck collecting).
In general, you are right. The only question that remains is how exactly the loan will be used, since it is about financial assistance. Someone takes money from the bank, does business, returns the money and makes a profit. Another takes the money and buys a new phone or spends it on girls and booze.
It seems to me that the main thing that Ukraine lacks is consistency and rationality. And this is a direct consequence of incompetence and lack of patriotism. Well, officials too often confuse the state pocket with their own, and the people are unable to control it.
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Today the weather is great again, but the mood is bad. And not because there is still no propagation and I barely heard Colin. At least we said hello.
I don't write much about the fighting, but that doesn't mean it has stopped. It's just that almost nothing good has been happening for a long time.
The authorities are now making many moves and even more announcements about the construction of fortifications. But the problem is not that it is done too late and poorly, but that they are not able to protect against russian bombs. And this is the big difference from those defensive structures that stopped the Ukrainian counteroffensive last year. The point is not that the russians made better fortifications, but that the Ukrainian army did not have not only aviation, but even a sufficient amount of artillery. Instead, the russians are able to drop thousands of 500, 1000 and even 1500 kg bombs that easily destroy any fortifications. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/europe/russian-guided-bomb-ukraine-frontline-intl/index.html
The story with British Challenger-2 tanks showed that their small number (only 14 pieces) and shortcomings (heavy weight, low power, unreliability) could not affect the results of battles. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26509818/ukrainian-soldiers-brit-challenger-2-tanks-russia/
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There was a lot of noise in russia today, but in the evening another residential building was destroyed by a drone in Krivy Rig, hometown of the President of Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/crg475lr20go
The morning started off so well with the crash of a military transport plane near Moscow. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ceke2lp01m3o
On March 11, 2024, as a result of a successful air strike by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the russian-flagged tanker "Mechanic Pogodin", which was used by the russians as a control point, was destroyed in the area of the Kinburska Spit. https://www.facebook.com/navy.mil.gov.ua/posts/pfbid02mbrNkyitAJz7HTPXvqrcpK8Gigmr5J8YJx2RcBXzhsZhSs3rV6yPdcmk5DtB8Pk2l
Three Ukraine-based russian paramilitary groups say they have crossed into russia and are now fighting government troops there. The Freedom of russia Legion (FRL) and Siberian Battalion (SB) posted videos purportedly showing their fighters in russia's Belgorod and Kursk regions. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68541911
It seems that the head of the Central Intelligence Agency Budanov and the CIA (with their independent funding) are waging a separate war, mainly on the territory of russia. Attacks on oil refineries, airports, and other important targets cause significant damage and destabilize the situation, but still cannot compensate for the lack of superiority on the front.
Zelensky again made optimistic statements to the French channel. https://www.bfmtv.com/international/europe/ukraine/avancee-russe-vladimir-poutine-volodymyr-zelensky-veut-rassurer-apres-des-semaines-difficiles-sur-le-front_AV-202403110789.html
He boldly declares that the russians have been stopped. But he does not say anything about the fact that the reserves have gone into operation and it is not known how much they will be enough.
Next points of view do not add optimism:
Donald Trump will not fund Ukraine's fight against russia's invasion if he is elected US president again, Hungarian PM Viktor Orban has said. "It is obvious that Ukraine cannot stand on its own feet," Mr Orban told Hungary's M1 TV channel late on Sunday. "If the Americans don't give money and weapons, along with the Europeans, then the war is over. And if the Americans don't give money, the Europeans alone are unable to finance this war. And then the war is over." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68533351
It’s no secret that Trump is pro-russia — and specifically pro-Vladimir pootin. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/11/trump-pro-russia-anti-ukraine/
Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission:
We need to boost our defence industrial and technological base. It was not clear to anybody before russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, but now it has become common sense. It is a prerequisite if we want to be able to strengthen our defence capacity in a tense geopolitical context. The war against Ukraine has indeed brought a greater sense of urgency to the issue of ramping up the production capacities of the European defence industry. To respond to the russian aggression, we have done what was unthinkable a few years ago – provide weapons, mainly from our existing stocks, to a country at war using the European Peace Facility. But, after two years of a high intensity war, existing stocks are depleted and the conflict has evolved from a war of stocks to a war of production. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/time-strengthen-european-defence-industry_en
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There were two air raids at night, and then during the day, but in Kyiv there were no explosions.
My blood pressure is high today and I have a headache, so I don't do much. It is very strange to live saving your strength without knowing how much more time you will need to spend in this state.
Unfortunately, there is again destruction and victims in the city of Sumy in the northeast near the border. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-sumy-zahybli-udar-rf/32860240.html
Today russian troops launched missile and air strikes on radio engineering facilities. Due to the damage, part of the territory of the Sumy and Kharkov regions cannot (temporarily) receive Ukrainian television and radio signals. Interruptions with mobile communication are possible. https://texty.org.ua/fragments/112006/rosiya-vdaryla-po-radiotehnichnyh-obyektah-na-sumshyni-ta-harkivshyni-yaki-naslidky/
It’s not just russian terrorists who make life difficult for Ukrainians. At the request of the police, taxis will no longer be able to transport Ukrainians during the curfew. The main destination for travel during the curfew was to train stations and hospitals, and as the only alternative to get somewhere in the event of an emergency or tragedy. https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-glavnaya/economy/na-zapit-politsii-servis-taksi-obmezhiv-chas-roboti-koli-viklikati-mashinu-bude-nemozhlivo.htm
According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the number of re-registrations of cars for women due to donation contracts has increased in Ukraine. This is probably related to the mobilization legislative initiatives of the Ukrainian authorities, which provide for significant restrictions on the rights of men aged 18 to 60. https://toneto.net/news/tehnologii/yak-vod-----namagayutsya-zahistitisya-v--d-novogo-zakonu-pro-mob--l--zats--yu
Two Ukrainian pilots were killed as a result of enemy helicopter fire, which occurred approximately 45 kilometers from the front line. https://flot2017.com/dvoie-ukrainskykh-pilotiv-zahynuly-vnaslidok-vorozhoho-obstrilu/
Ukrainian defense-tech startup Himera, which produces protected tactical military walkie-talkies, has attracted $525,000 in investment.
The startup's plan for 2024 is to release the next version of the product and receive a government order. https://dev.ua/news/ukrainskyi-defence-startap-himera-zaluchyv-525-000-1710165296?utm_source=tg&utm_medium=msg&utm_campaign=news_dev_ua_channel&utm_content=zaluchyv
For some reason, I believe in the success of these people. No, not in the efficiency and security of their "walkie-talkies", but in receiving money from the budget.
FT reminds that on the eve of the new wave of mobilization, during which they want to attract up to 500 thousand soldiers to the army, the parliament must adopt a new law on mobilization. As the Minister of Defense of Ukraine explained to the British newspaper, half a million mobilized people are needed primarily to replace 330 thousand exhausted soldiers at the front, and the rest to replenish losses and cover other military needs.
Currently, the FT explains, only men older than 27 can be at the front, many went to war as volunteers, so the average age of Ukrainian defenders on the battlefield is about 40 years old. The share of millennials and generation Z (born from the early 1980s to the present time) in Ukraine is smaller than in other countries. This is explained by the drop in the birth rate after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The proposal to lower the age of mobilization to 25 has faced sharp criticism from those who believe that sending young people to the trenches is suicide for the nation.
In addition to lowering the age of mobilization, introducing an electronic register, the possibility of blocking driver's licenses for evasion of service, the bill on mobilization has another very controversial proposal - the so-called economic reservation, that is, the exclusion from mobilization of those who are considered critical for the economy.
According to the calculations of the economic committee of the parliament, if about 2 million men paid up to UAH 20,000 a month in a special contribution, the budget could receive from UAH 200 to 350 billion in a year. The head of the committee, Dmytro Natalukha, admits that such plans are subject to fierce criticism, because those who cannot pay will be mobilized.
But, he emphasizes, no matter what approach to solving the problem is chosen, Ukraine needs to somehow mobilize funds, and the purpose of economic reservation is not to "save" men from mobilization, but to generate as many financial resources as possible for the army.
According to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance, additional mobilization in 2024 will cost Ukraine about UAH 800 billion.
https://www.ft.com/content/d7e95021-df99-4e99-8105-5a8c3eb8d4ef
To understand the adequacy of calculations, the average salary in Ukraine is now less than UAH 20,000.
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I'm wondering if someone outside from russia would like to participate in russian DX Contest after they marked four occupied Ukrainian regions as russian oblasts as multipliers?
That's published on the official RDXC website (only in russian version but you can easily use web translator. It's hided in English version) - https://www.rdxc.org/rules
https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1173419683831104&id=100034892493433&mibextid=oFDknk
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Dear Volodymyr,
How can I get your email-address?
Best regards
bluesky
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Today I slept for a very long time and apparently this restored my strength. I barely had time to return from my walk to scheduled QSO with Colin G3ZAF. Unfortunately, today there is very poor propagation on 28 MHz and I didn’t hear him at all there, but on the reserve frequency on 15 meters we were able to talk a little.
Air raid warnings in the morning ended with an attack on Odessa. Again many were killed and wounded. Terrorists practice repeated strikes on the same target in order to also kill as many rescuers as possible. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/odesi-vnaslidok-povtornogo-raketnogo-obstrilu-1710500069.html
President of the Republic of Latvia Edgars Rinkēvičs stated that Ukraine must win, russia must be defeated. russia delenda est! https://twitter.com/edgarsrinkevics/status/1768533827897397433
Once again I am convinced that only those who live next to them know the essence of russians. Only the destruction of a terrorist state and a complete blockade can stop the spread of this modified diseased formation on the body of the planet. Unfortunately, the Covid-19 pandemic showed that the number of those who wanted to make money from it turned out to be too large.
An international mechanism for payments to Ukrainian citizens whose property was damaged by russian aggression has been launched in The Hague. This was reported by Deputy Minister of Justice Iryna Mudra. She said that a special fund will be created for payments to Ukrainians. Already in April of this year, citizens of our country will be able to apply for compensation within the framework of the UN initiative.
Iryna Mudra noted that, with the help of an international agreement, a compensation commission will be created, which will consider each specific case. After that, an executive body will be established to calculate compensations. According to the Deputy Minister of Justice of Ukraine, at least a year will pass until all bureaucratic and organizational procedures are followed. russian assets frozen in the West can be used as a source of financing payments. https://top.today.ua/ukrayintsi-otrimayut-kompensatsiyi-vid-oon-za-zbitki-cherez-vijnu-prijom-zayavok-startuye-u-kvitni/
On March 15, UAVs attacked an oil refinery in the Kaluga region of the russian federation. According to russian Telegram channels, the company's equipment was damaged as a result of the hit. https://thepage.ua/ua/news/15-bereznya-droni-atakuvali-npz-u-kaluzkij-oblasti-video
This reminds me of the russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure last year. Their missiles were much larger, and the number of objects in Ukraine was much smaller, but still this did not allow them to achieve a significant effect. In our case, these are good attempts, but I doubt that they will have much significance.
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In Poland, two journalists of the Information Agency "Raion.in.yua" were detained, who were investigating cargo transportation on the russian-Polish border.
Editor Yury Konkevych and videographer Oleksandr Pilyuk were detained on March 7 while recording the crossing of the border by freight trains and cars between the Kaliningrad region of the russian federation (occupied Polish territory) and the Republic of Poland. As of the evening of March 9, the border guards brought the journalists to the Dorogusk-Yagodin checkpoint.
According to the editorial assignment, the journalists had to investigate the topic of cargo transportation, assess the cargo flow and find out which transport is used to cross the border - Polish or russian. It was also planned to talk to eyewitnesses and experts to assess the scale of such trade.
At approximately 1:10 p.m. local time, 5-6 journalists were detained by police officers in the city of Branevo. They took the property of journalists: two smartphones, two cameras, a personal MacBook, memory cards, microphones, power banks and even selfie sticks.
https://rayon.in.ua/news/686144-zhurnalisti-rayoninua-znyali-torgivlyu-polshchi-z-rosieyu-ikh-zatrimali-zabrali-vsyu-tekhniku-y-vidvorili#subscribe
I liked the interview the Polish Ambassador to Ukraine Jarosław Huzy gave. He seems to be a very smart person who well understands the sources of problems and the situation. https://www.dw.com/uk/posol-polsi-v-ukraini-pro-protesti-fermeriv-i-blokadu-kordonu/a-68507156
He drew attention to how difficult the farmers' protest at the border is. It concentrates on the border and looks like a single phenomenon. But in fact, it is a whole complex of phenomena that have different causes. This protest is part of an even more general problem. This is not a Polish-Ukrainian problem. This is a European problem because, after all, we see demonstrations similar to each other in Warsaw and Brussels. And farmers' protests are taking place all over Poland, not just at the border. Ukraine is to some extent a victim, one might say, a side effect of the larger problems facing the European Union. Farmers' demands cannot be met without decisions taken by the European Union. These decisions are beyond the reach of the Polish government.
There is a question to what extent these protests are being used by the russian side, are they fueled? Especially when it comes to focusing these protests on the Ukrainian issue, although Brussels is a more appropriate place for protests. He recently spoke about this at a meeting of EU ambassadors: that the problem is to convince Polish farmers to move from under the border with Ukraine to Brussels if they want to realize their demands. But farmers are convinced that Ukraine is part of the problem. So many sins in all directions. From the Ukrainian side too.
First, it is a misunderstanding of the problem. Insisting that the European Commission will solve the issue of grain export for Ukrainians, they got into such a hot topic and unjustifiably became part of a problem to which they have nothing to do. It is about all the problems of the "Green Deal". It is much easier to point the finger at Ukrainian imports as the source of the problems. It is much more difficult to point to a whole set of EU directives or decisions regarding imports from other countries, such as Latin America or China, when it comes to agricultural products.
The action to dump Ukrainian grain looked like an organized one, more like a diversion than some kind of spontaneous protest. All of this gives ample opportunity to agents like russia, which, after all, is running a huge social media campaign, primarily to protest farmers. All russian bots are working, all influence agencies are working. This is important to realize.
If we talk about Poles and Ukrainians, they have similar opportunities. That is, unlike the lazy West, both of them want to work. I see here a huge space for cooperation in the negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU, because, first of all, Poland does not want to delay these negotiations. It wants Ukraine to complete them as soon as possible. Secondly, it has experience that can be useful for Ukraine. Before the case reaches the European arena, it would be better for Poles and Ukrainians to agree on possible compromise solutions. And present them together.
Do not forget that the European Union excluded the russian and Belarusian agricultural sectors from sanctions. Basically, believing that these exports are aimed at the countries of the so-called Global South, at world markets, and that blocking these exports with sanctions will be detrimental to countries that are important in terms of views on what is happening with russian aggression in Ukraine. That is why it was such a political decision, one might say.
Poland will remain absolutely neutral to the issue of the return of Ukrainian refugees to Ukraine. But Poland is economically interested in Ukrainians staying.
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It seems that someone high in Poland was embarrassed about the trade with Russia. Deportation, equipment siezed, and barred from Shengen area for 5 years? Hardly something a few border guards would do on their own, I think.
The drone strikes on infrastructure within Russia may not always be substantial in military terms, but are of great value in puncturing supposed Russian invulnerability. Also, in some cases, they demonstrate that UA special ops and native guerilla forces are operating inside Russia. The Russian internal propaganda railing against the west for this also confirms it as true, and the more shrill the propaganda gets, the more clear is the effect.
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It seems that someone high in Poland was embarrassed about the trade with Russia. Deportation, equipment siezed, and barred from Shengen area for 5 years? Hardly something a few border guards would do on their own, I think.
The drone strikes on infrastructure within Russia may not always be substantial in military terms, but are of great value in puncturing supposed Russian invulnerability. Also, in some cases, they demonstrate that UA special ops and native guerilla forces are operating inside Russia. The Russian internal propaganda railing against the west for this also confirms it as true, and the more shrill the propaganda gets, the more clear is the effect.
The ambassador did not name another very important source of problems within Poland. This is a party that lost power in the last elections, but its member is still the current president of Poland. They openly support farmers and spoil everything for their competitors, even at the cost of Poland's interests. The situation is completely similar to what the Republicans do in the USA.
To understand the perception of attacks on oil plants or military targets in russia, it is necessary to clearly separate its authorities and its people. For the authorities, this does not matter as long as it does not cause critical damage. This causes anger and a desire for revenge, but never a desire to give up. All large industrial and infrastructure facilities in russia, as well as in Ukraine, are owned by oligarchs, so only those who work there directly suffer from their damage. As in Ukraine, the destruction of factories owned by oligarchs only causes gloating among the population. Until the population there begins to die at night in their homes, they will not have the feeling that this war now concerns them too. Misunderstanding of others leads to incorrect assessment of the situation and errors in planning and, as a result, failure to achieve goals. This is one of the reasons for the constant problems of the United States in the Middle East.
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"I am very grateful to my teammates for their fighting decision," said 16-year-old Ukrainian Ihor Honcharenko. The Lithuanian team Lituanica X, of which Ihor became a member a year ago, refused to compete in the same competition with russia at the European Robotics Championship in Italy. The team, which spent two years developing a complex and promising robot, lost the chance to compete for the opportunity to go to the World Robotics Championship.
https://www.lrt.lt/ua/novini/1263/2220368/igor-pishaiet-sia-rishuchistiu-litovtsiv-boikotuvati-rosiiu-voni-pozhertvuvali-dvoma-rokami-tvorchosti-ta-chempionatom-svitu
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Today it started to rain and my condition for the last two days became clear. At night I generally woke up from a panic attack due to an accelerated pulse and high blood pressure. The most valuable skill is self-control. Today we talked to Sergiy and he said that another engineer of their company died recently. He was about 50 years old. Heart attack. We came to the conclusion that living even to 50 is a challenge even if you are not killed at the front or by a missile.
In recent days, fighting has also intensified in the north of Ukraine - the border region of Sumy is under constant attack by the russians and this is becoming dangerous. At the same time, Ukrainian drones continue to attack oil refineries on russian territory, and in the border Belgorod region there are russian detachments who are fighting with russians against the pootin regime. They are few in number and are fully supported by Ukraine, but the objective results of their actions, other than a little information noise, are not yet visible. Perhaps their only task was to attract attention during the election/extension of pootin’s powers for a new term.
But shops and schools have been closed in the russian city of Belgorod after bombardments that authorities there have blamed on Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68586062
At the same time, I agree with the opinion of one blogger:
Me thinks: Ukraine hasn’t even got the time for that. It cannot run a massive campaign of destroying the russian command nodes, then run a wholesale destruction of the russian air defence system, and then re-focus on the russian ground forces. It hasn’t got enough long-range UAVs, just for the start. At least not yet.
However, it – obviously – has the means to strike russian air bases. Yet, it’s not doing that. Instead, we still get to see satellite photographs of major russian air bases around Ukraine, all nicely decorated with long rows of Su-24s, Su-30s, Su-34s and Su-35s. At last many of which are in the process of being loaded by UMPKs to go bombing ZSU troops.
At the time the VKS is bombing the ZSU along the frontline with over 100 glide bombs a day, causing an average of 20 deaths and 50 wounded – every single day
it seems that strategic decisions in Ukraine are not made by Ukrainian generals, but by someone from abroad - those who do not care about the people of Ukraine because they are at war with russia , and Ukraine for them is just a testing ground...
xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-13-march-2024-me-and
Therefore it is not surprising that few men of fighting age are left in village Makiv in southwest Ukraine, and those who remain fear they will be drafted at any moment. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/15/ukraine-village-mobilized-men-war/
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It’s possible of course that American/NATO advice to Ukraine is faulty. But there have been quite credible reports in major media of the Ukrainian side ignoring their advice, resulting in large losses and eventual retreats anyway. I suspect that most of the trouble is much closer than across the Atlantic, in or near the office of the President of Ukraine.
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It’s possible of course that American/NATO advice to Ukraine is faulty. But there have been quite credible reports in major media of the Ukrainian side ignoring their advice, resulting in large losses and eventual retreats anyway. I suspect that most of the trouble is much closer than across the Atlantic, in or near the office of the President of Ukraine.
If only we knew what the real motives of those who advise/make decisions are.
Now many people think that the russians stopped their offensive / were stopped by the Ukrainian army, but I think this is an erroneous judgment. They just began to act rationally. Instead of driving their troops through minefields to storm fortifications regardless of losses, they first destroy them with large aerial bombs and only then advance with infantry and armored vehicles.
During the unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer, I heard nothing about the preliminary bombing and destruction of russian fortifications, or even about effective mine clearance.
And of course, I doubt that anyone in the West advised the Ukrainian authorities to destroy the economy, strengthen corruption and demotivate the population with unfair policies and legislation.
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Today it rains all day, and in the evening it snows.
pootin predictably won and now everyone is tormented by the question of what will happen next. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68596231
There is an opinion that he will get rid of popular people so that no one threatens him in the future. In conditions of full support by his people and fear in the West, all that can threaten him are his own comrades. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/all-the-autocrats-men-the-court-politics-of-putins-inner-circle/?mkt_tok=NjU5LVdaWC0wNzUAAAGR4Z9ctQIDY84g4z7sK04OVWR2Xm9Kxq3vvWnvfXhFCfqLtv52SJ00kPqTxbN6IcjX1Ob5tUfYlhVSHzXpfC6-qr6Z1kD4jgnq2wsXAr8J_NlS4A#far-right
The hopes of “russia experts” who at best studied about russia at universities in the West, but never lived in it as ordinary citizens, that a change of president will change something in russia look naive. On the contrary, only those who fully meet the expectations of the people and realize their desires can remain in power. This was the reason for the crushing defeat of Yeltsin, who did not meet the requirements for a strong conquering leader. pootin, having started in an atmosphere of democracy, quickly realized this and was forced to adjust his policies to suit the needs of the people. Has anyone seen the protests? They don’t exist not because someone is afraid to go out. There are only a few people who doesn't support the others, and in chemistry such quantities are called “chemical traces.” Thus, the russians proved that everything happens consciously and with their full support. These are slaves, but who proudly carry their collar in their hands. They do not want freedom for themselves, they want to rule over other slaves.
I have always wondered how a person can be considered an expert on another country, if has not lived there for some time as an equal member of society in order to experience everything for himself, and not remain under the protection of the bubble of another citizenship or being a representative of another country. Unfortunately, such people advise the leaders of other countries at the highest level, which leads to disastrous consequences in their policies.
The EU expressed deep concern and did not recognize the results of the elections in the occupied territory. However, what does this matter to the Russians? https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/03/18/russia-ukraine-statement-by-the-high-representative-on-behalf-of-the-european-union-on-russian-presidential-elections-and-their-non-applicability-on-ukrainian-territory/
In fact, the people are the source of power in any country and Ukraine is no exception. Only the names change, but each new person tries to meet the needs of the people, balancing on the brink of their interests and the interests of those who ensure the implementation of his policies, his comrades. This is probably why nothing changes in Ukraine either.
The next move is up to the Americans, who will choose not only their future. However, there is still a possibility of internal turmoil in Ukraine after the expiration of Zelensky’s powers. And the way the authorities are afraid of this suggests that there is every reason for this. After all, no one will doubt the legitimacy of a fair, honest, non-corrupt government?
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If you remember that fundraiser for antennas. They have already been manufactured and went to the front. Oleg made 66 antennas.
https://ur8lv.com/1621819714
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It has been raining almost all day and my legs hurt like an old man. Or maybe I’m already an old man. There are too many events for an ordinary human life. However, early in the morning before the rain, I managed to walk and buy some apples at the farmers market.
Air raid alarms sound every day, but Kyiv seems to be the only city where nothing has exploded lately. In Kharksv, some industrial facility was again destroyed and people died.https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/03/20/novyna/suspilstvo/xarkovi-zavalamy-mozhut-perebuvaty-10-osib-ova
russian front-line aircraft and helicopters fly freely over the occupied territory, which means that we have nothing that can reach them even 10 km behind the front line.
Ukrainian drones attacked the strategic aviation airfield in Engelsk, but there is still no information about the results. Apparently nothing serious. https://myc.news/ua/politika/ataka_dronov_na_aerodrom_engels_sputnikovye_snimki_i_podrobnosti
Andriy Demchenko, the spokesman of the State Border Service, said that it is impossible to strengthen the Ukrainian-Russian border in the north by engineering. https://www.liga.net/ua/politics/articles/khochut-sterty-z-lytsia-zemli-chomu-rosiia-zakyduie-pivnich-ukrainy-aviabombamy-ta-dronamy
Very unpleasant feelings from this news, considering that last year the russians calmly built three lines of fortifications in the south, which completely stopped the Ukrainian counteroffensive. I wonder if the Ukrainian authorities will also explain the lack of fortifications as insufficient help from the West?
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France has joined Poland in calling for further restrictions on imports of Ukrainian agricultural products, threatening to derail negotiations on extending Kyiv's free-trade access to the EU for another year, three European diplomats told POLITICO. The change would cost Ukraine €1.2 billion in trade revenue. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-imports-europe-france-poland-agriculture/
The EU aims to deploy frozen russian assets to send 3 billion euros per year to Ukraine, the European Commission announced today (20 March), with the first funds potentially paid as soon as July. While originally mooted as a funding for Ukraine’s reconstruction, 90% of the funds released by today’s plans are set to flow through the European Peace Facility, which aims to supply Ukraine with munitions. https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/03/20/brussels-poised-to-send-billions-from-frozen-russian-assets-to-ukraine
International investments in Ukraine increased from $500 million in 2022 to $1.2 billion in 2023, KSE Institute head Natalia Shapoval said during the first Ukraine Business Compact (UBC) Workshop.
"During the full-scale invasion, 43 global companies invested in Ukraine, including Bayer ($65 million), Carlsberg ($40 million) and CEMARK, which is part of the CRH group of companies ($30 million). Another 12 companies announced investments in Ukraine," - Shapoval noted. https://interfax.com.ua/news/investments/974794.html
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Hello Wlad,
Is good money will come to Ukraine, but much of the first moneys will probably not go to army, but food/fuel/parts/food to keep Ukraine economy functional.
In US, the house is S L O W L Y trying to complete basic funding of our country. The right want to starve the poor and the left want to make everyone rich and is difficult finding the middle ground which will leave all grumbling. This funding effects all retired or disabled people as well as all US veterans.
There is still much discussion about funding Ukraine, but that is now completely set aside until the domestic funding bill is complete. I hope Europe will pull through for Ukraine!
Those antennas are good antennas. They are J-pole antennas, broadbanded for the band they are made for and strong. These look like they are made of aluminum. I built 25 of these but used all copper which was very cheap back then, again, strong and will handle huge wind storms without problems. Then if you want, you can add a second vertical element to create the "Super J-pole" which almost doubles the gain. Now, here in USA, it is usually cheaper and easier to buy a manufactured antenna then try to buy the parts to make a copper j-pole!
There is a new kitten in our lives. Last few weeks, a little black kitten was showing up after I would feed my ravens. He was trying to chase them. Last week I realized he was starving, desperately trying to make the birds drop the food so he could eat it.
Monday, I brought him his own special bowl of food. He was so scared, but hunger made him slowly come to me and he ate. I was able to touch him and pat his back softly. After food was gone, he ran away. Tuesday morning, he was waiting, calmer. I fed the birds and brought him a larger bowl of food. This time he let me pet him without running away. Very skittish, always ready to run away. Yesterday, I opened the door and put his food on my porch. Finally, he snooped and entered house, but not for long.
Today, again waiting as sun was coming up. I let him come in and shut door, and he became very upset, but still too hungry to run away! I brought him a big bowl of food and put it down again on porch so he felt safer, but left door open. He came in and I shut door. Snooped inside the house but then became fearful. I brought him back to the door and showed him the kitty door and he went out, but then I called him and half opened kitty door for him and he came in! So much new things for him to ponder! He ate, played with my older two cats for two hours before leaving.
Storms will arrive tonight, I will worry about him outside. I hope he continues to calm and be more okay being inside, warm/dry/safe. He is coal black, petite short hair male, and HAPPY.
I'm glad my older cats feel comfortable with him!
73
Jaye
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Hi Jaye!
Thanks for the kitten story!
I will no longer have pets. It's too much responsibility. At least my Mouse is still alive.
Today I woke up to explosions around 5 am. 11 strategic of Tu-95MS bombers launched missiles over Ukraine. The rockets came from the north, the main direction of the attack was Kyiv. The enemy attacked with two Iskander-M ballistic/aeroballistic missiles (KN-23) / Kh-47M2 Kinjal, as well as 29 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles (launch areas – Volgodonsk, Engels – RF), the Air Force said in a statement.
At least 17 people, including a child, were injured by falling debris, four of whom are in hospital, authorities said. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4nv1pdwx5do
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68623415
All the destruction was on the right bank of the Dnipro, so I just listened to the explosions. The walk was difficult again and I stopped to rest on a bench. At least it was very warm and the sun was shining, although my eyes were stinging because of the lack of sleep.
But as always, I'm more concerned about economic news. The illustrative story of the company "Akvaizol", which in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion, was relocated from Kharkiv in the east of Ukraine to Kalush in the Ivano-Frankivsk region in the west. 70 wagons of production equipment were brought to Kalush and placed in warehouses. Therefore, they decided to build a new plant on an area of 10,000 square meters. Construction began in December 2022 and lasted a year. The factory is currently undergoing commissioning of the first production line, which will be operational at the end of April. The second is planned to be launched in May. When both production lines are operational, the plant plans to employ 100 people. Only two workers are from Kharkiv, the rest are local. https://www.ratusha.if.ua/vyvezly-z-kharkova-70-vahoniv-cherez-misiats-u-kalushi-zapratsiuie-shche-odne-relokovane-pidpryiemstvo/
It looks like the east of Ukraine, which used to be industrial, is waiting for decline and ruin.
Austria does not agree to transfer profits from frozen russian assets to purchase weapons for the Ukrainian army. This was announced by Austrian Chancellor Karl Neghammer before the summit of European Union leaders. The head of the Austrian government noted that he is not against using the income from the assets of the russian federation for the reconstruction of Ukraine. However, he added that for his country, which is neutral, it is important that money for Ukraine is not used to purchase weapons. https://rubryka.com/2024/03/21/avstriya-vystupyla-proty-peredachi-koshtiv-vid-zamorozhenyh-aktyviv-rf-na-zakupivlyu-zbroyi-dlya-ukrayiny/
Ukraine’s prime minister said blocked US funding could arrive as soon as this month – and that the scope of recruiting fresh troops for the front line may be fewer than the half-million initially backed by the military. As more than $60 billion in funding is held up by House Republicans in Washington, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal — saying Ukrainian officials are in “active dialog” with Congress members from both parties — signaled he expects positive news “this month, or maximum next month.”
At the same time, a contested draft bill calling for the conscription of younger soldiers is stalled in Ukraine’s parliament, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wary of an initial military request to draft as many as 500,000 troops. Shmyhal said an assessment showed that scale wasn’t necessary given rotations taking place on the front line and incoming weaponry.
“We will continue the fight if we will have support from our partners for artillery shells, for long and middle range missiles,” Shmyhal said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Brussels on Wednesday.
The premier lauded the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and Group of Seven allies for providing badly needed financing so far this year, allowing the budget to “survive for the first half.” Ukraine will rely on the US package for the second half of the year, he said. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-20/ukrainian-premier-sees-us-aid-coming-as-early-as-this-month?srnd=politics-vp
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Perhaps it would be possible to use the money that is otherwise used to bribe Ukrainian officials and politicians to instead strengthen the northern border between Ukraine and russia
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Today I haven't had enough sleep again due to air alarm, which is better not to ignore. My head hurts, although the weather is very nice.
A million people are without power across Ukraine after Russian missiles targeted energy infrastructure. Some 90 missiles and 60 Shahed drones were launched into Ukraine during the wave of overnight attacks. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68634444
There is no electricity in the second-largest city of Kharkiv, the regional head says, and more than 53,000 households in Odesa are without power.
The greatest damage is in Kharkiv, which was completely left without electricity and, accordingly, without water supply, heating, urban electric transport. Hospitals and some other facilities are powered by generators. https://gazeta.ua/articles/np/_harkiv-povnistyu-znestrumlenij-misto-perehodit-na-generatori/1175645
In Zaporizhzhia, there were two direct hits at the Dnipro HPP - at HPP-1 and HPP-2 stations. It is not known whether it will be possible to restore HPP-2, it is seriously damaged. There is a hit to one support, the crane beams are broken. This was stated by the director of Ukrhydroenergo Ihor Syrota. "We will have to completely restore the engine room and electrical equipment. We will calculate the consequences during the day and understand what happened. And will it (HESP-2 - ed..) be able to work. And if it can, then whether in a limited mode or not at all will be able to operate HPP-2 for a certain period," he said on Radio Svoboda. https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-glavnaya/communalka/nevidomo-chi-vdastsya-vidnoviti-ges-2-vona-poshkodzhena-serjozno-direktor-ukrgidroenergo.htm
In fact, this is a very serious problem because hydroelectric plants balance nuclear plants. Also, recently, the export of electricity was one of the few sources of money for Ukraine. Now, apparently, electricity will have to be imported. Coincidentally, an article appeared today in Financial Time with reference to its own sources:
The United States has called on Ukraine to stop attacks on russian energy infrastructure and oil refineries, which could lead to a rise in global prices. It is noted that drone strikes on russian energy and refineries could raise global oil prices and provoke russia to retaliate.
"Repeated warnings from Washington were conveyed to high-ranking officials of the State Security Service of Ukraine, the SBU and its military intelligence department, known as the GUR," the report said.
According to sources, the White House is increasingly frustrated by "brazen" Ukrainian drone attacks that have hit refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western russia, damaging its oil production capacity. https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c
Kyiv still has electricity, but I think this is not the last attack. At least it’s not so cold anymore and you can do without heating.
Not being able to work with my head, I devoted the whole day to cleaning the apartment before my wife's arrival, and it made me very tired. She said that Ukrainian children began to be bullied by Poles and, after meeting with the school director and watching videos of confrontations and threats, the parents decided to file a complaint with the police.
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Events are developing rapidly in this part of the world.
The terrorist attack in Moscow yesterday https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-68642036?src_origin=BBCS_BBC suspiciously resembles another FSB operation, similar to the one that in 2002 allowed Putin to gain support and end the war in Chechnya. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis
The seizure of the Moscow Bearing cultural center took place on October 23, 2002, when the popular musical “Nord-Ost” was shown there. For pootin, it became a convenient occasion to get rid of domestic and international pressure to end the Second Chechen War and begin a plan to establish a puppet regime in the rebellious region. A year after the terrorist attack, Akhmat Kadyrov, the father of current President Ramzan Kadyrov, was elected president of Chechnya. https://ru.espreso.tv/article/2017/10/24/15_let_nazad_posle_shturma_nord_osta_pogybly_130_chelovek_voprosy_kotorye_ostalys_k_rossyyskoy_vlasty
This will again allow to distract people from questions about the advisability of war in Ukraine, and the increased level of hatred is much easier to direct in the right direction, for example, to Ukraine. pootin has already stated that Ukraine provided terrorists with the opportunity to cross the border. Also, any terrorist attack is an excellent reason to intimidate people and limit their rights.
What attitude towards other nations do you expect from those who do this to their own people? However, I want to quote:
“In any agenda, political or otherwise, there is a cost to be borne. Always ask what it is, and who will be paying. If you don’t, then the agenda makers will pick up the perfume of your silence like swamp panthers on the scent of blood, and the next thing you know, the person expected to bear the cost will be you. And you may not have what it takes to pay. QUELLCRIST”
“Most people don’t like to think things through. Too much effort. They’d rather have the edited visceral highlights.”
“That’s right. People. It’s all people. People and their stupid fucking groups. Show me an individual decision maker whose decisions have harmed me, and I’ll melt his stack to slag. Show me a group with the united purpose of harming me and I’ll take them all down if I can. But don’t expect me to waste time and effort on abstract hate.”
― Richard K. Morgan, Broken Angels
However, history repeats itself again. Back in 1919, Mussolini wrote in “IL POPOLO D’ITALIA”:
“The event is epic. Never have people fought with more faith for their freedom; never have a people defended their right to life and independence in more difficult conditions, (...) threatened by the pan-Russians, without weapons, without means, alone, under the distrustful or indifferent gazes of all of Europe, the Ukrainian people free their territory from Bolshevik plague and reconquers his capital. Free peoples are moved by this spectacle of greatness, even if their governments want to ignore it. The Ukrainians not only defend themselves, but Europe"("Il Popolo d'Italia", 6 settembre 1919).
“The lack of space does not allow us to highlight, as we would like, the great crime committed by pan-Russianism. Russians are foreigners in Ukraine and the occupation of Kyiv in the name of Great Russia is an abominable attack on the freedom of peoples. (“Il Popolo d’Italia”, 13 settembre 1919).
https://www.lavocedelpatriota.it/cosa-scriveva-mussolini-nel-1919-dellucraina/
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In Ukraine, a law was passed, according to which Ukrainians recognized as limited fit for service must undergo a second medical examination. After that, they can be mobilized if needed and can fill vacancies in combat units and brigades. https://apostrophe.ua/ua/news/society/2024-03-23/ogranichenno-godnyih-smogut-otpravlyat-v-boevyie-podrazdeleniya-kakimi-budut-novyie-pravila/317047
I don’t see how this will increase the combat effectiveness of the army, but it definitely may increase the income of those who will decide who to recognize or not to recognize as healthy enough.
Some incomprehensible story is happening with the "International War Sponsors" registry, which was introduced to record companies that continue to cooperate with russia. https://gazeta.ua/articles/economics/_reyestr-sponsoriv-vijni-zakrivayut-nazk-dalo-oficijnij-komentar/1175737
On March 19, the Cabinet of Ministers announced a meeting with the participation of the ambassadors of Italy, Japan, Austria, France, Hungary, Turkey, Belgium, Finland, Greece and the EU representation in Ukraine, representatives of the embassies of USA, Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Canada, Germany and China.
The government announced numerous appeals from representatives of the diplomatic corps of partner countries regarding the lack of a regulatory framework for the existence of the list of "International sponsors of war", and, accordingly, the negative impact of this list on the adoption of important decisions to counter russian aggression.
Therefore, the simplest solution turned out to be simply to close it.
In Kharkiv, all energy and utility services are working to restore energy supply. However, the power supply will not be restored this weekend. This was announced by the mayor of Kharkiv Igor Terekhov. https://weukraine.tv/suspilstvo/v-kharkovi-enerhopostachannja-tsimi-vikhidnimi-ne-vidnovljat-terekhov/
Ukrhydroenergo stated that another 20% of capacity was lost at the damaged Dnipro HPP. https://warnews.novyny.live/v-ukrgidroenergo-zaiavili-shcho-na-dniproges-bulo-vtracheno-shche-20-potuzhnostei-161191.html
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In my opinion Mussolini deserves no reference at all - not even one! He was a Nazi and mass murderer like Hitler, Franco and Stalin.
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In my opinion Mussolini deserves no reference at all - not even one! He was a Nazi and mass murderer like Hitler, Franco and Stalin.
Agree. Apparently this is my professional deformation. For me, the main thing is the facts, not their sources, provided that they are reliable. Mussolini hated the communists/Bolsheviks and was an ally of the Ukrainians in this. At one time, even the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, which fought the communists who occupied Ukraine, collaborated with Hitler because he gave them weapons. This was their original slogan: “Glory to Ukraine - Glory to Heroes.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_of_Ukrainian_Nationalists
As for Mussolini, when I was in Italy they told me how much good he had done for Italy, which greatly surprised me then.
Perhaps russians now feel the same way about pootin. And understanding this is also important. In my opinion, you need to know history at a minimum in order not to repeat mistakes. As a whole, Ukrainians even know very little of their own history.
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Mussolini was a fascist alongside fascists Franco, Hitler and Stalin. Mussolini has no place to be memorized in history, unless you want history to repeat itself. Strange that you think that Mussolini did anything good for Italians, while the fact is that he was hanged by his own people the Italians.
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Mussolini was a fascist alongside fascists Franco, Hitler and Stalin. Mussolini has no place to be memorized in history, unless you want history to repeat itself. Strange that you think that Mussolini did anything good for Italians, while the fact is that he was hanged by his own people the Italians.
I believe that history repeats itself when it is forgotten. I think if you want to know more about Mussolini, it is better to talk about it with the Italians, and not with me.
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Mussolini was a dictator and a ridiculous sly clown. This is documented in a.o. the documentary: "Mussolini - The First Fascist". If You do not have access to the full documentary, You can see it partly on youtube.
With Respect
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This morning started again with a rocket attack and some of the rockets were shot down not far from me. People who went out for a walk with their dogs carefully walked around the wreckage of the rockets, which were leaking poisonous rocket fuel. It rained lightly most of the day, which combined with lack of sleep made me very slow again. At least my blood pressure was normal for the first time in days.
The consequences of attacks on other cities were worse. In the Lviv region, near the western border, one of the underground gas storage facilities hit the ground infrastructure. An acquaintance who lives about 40 km from that place heard the explosion. He is worried about the fact that the Kinzhal supersonic missiles can fly so far and accurately. https://unn.ua/news/voroh-atakuvav-lvivshchynu-kyndzhalamy-povtorno-vluchyvshy-u-krytychno-vazhlyvu-infrastrukturu
https://hvylya.net/uk/news/289896-povrezhdena-infrastruktura-podzemnogo-hranilishcha-gaza-v-naftogaze-skazali-povliyaet-li-eto-na-postavku-gaza-potrebitelyam
One of the missiles passed through the territory of Poland, which caused a lot of questions from the Poles about their military. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30825907,rosyjska-rakieta-naruszyla-polska-przestrzen-powietrzna.html#S.MT-K.C-B.1-L.1.duzy
In general, due to the attacks of the last few days, one of the largest operators of the energy market of Ukraine announced the loss of 50% of generating capacity. https://hvylya.net/uk/news/289897-dtek-poteryal-50-generacii-elektroenergii-v-rezultate-obstrelov-rf-gendirektor-yasno
The situation is still difficult in Kharkiv, although electricity and water supply have been restored to some consumers. The mayor announced that all electrical substations and CHP were destroyed. https://www.dw.com/uk/udari-rf-u-harkovi-zrujnovano-usi-pidstancii-ta-tec/a-68656182?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
The International Monetary Fund has updated the base and negative scenario for Ukraine.
Specifically, based on the negative scenario, the war would end by the end of 2025 compared to the end of 2024 in the baseline scenario. At the same time, the shock will begin in the second quarter of 2024 due to the intensity of the war.
In addition, in the negative scenario, the cumulative financing gap is estimated at about $140.6 billion, which is about $19 billion more than in the baseline projection for 2023-2027 ($121.8 billion). https://hvylya.net/uk/news/289893-mvf-ozvuchili-bazovyy-i-negativnyy-scenariy-srokov-zaversheniya-voyny-i-ee-vliyaniya-na-ekonomiku
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In the occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, the Defense Forces hit large amphibious ships "Yamal" and "Azov", a communications center and several infrastructure facilities of the Black Sea Fleet of the russian federation, reported the Strategic Communications Department of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-krym-korabli-rf-udar/32875184.html
In russia, it is reported that the Kuibyshev Oil Refinery in the Samara region has stopped working because of the drone attack on this refinery. https://war.hvylya.net/uk/289883-v-rf-ostanovil-rabotu-atakovannyy-dronami-npz
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Today there was a new missile attack. This time with supersonic ballistic missiles against Kyiv and Odessa. I was just out for a walk and explosions sounded right overhead at the same time as air raid signals. The rocket debris destroyed buildings and made huge craters in the ground in neighboring areas. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cjq8nyd29dvo
https://weukraine.tv/top/rosijani-raketami-vdarili-po-odesi-je-postrazhdali-ta-poshkodzhennja/
Sometimes people ask me why the authorities lie when they say that the missiles were shot down. They don't lie. It's just that downed missiles don't disappear anywhere. They still fall, but not in the place where they were originally aiming.
The russian attack on Kharkiv, which took place on March 22, led to the destruction of energy facilities. Kharkiv is supplied with electricity thanks to other regions. Restoration of these facilities is equivalent to building anew and will take at least a year, subject to appropriate funding. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/vidnovlennya-pidut-roki-harkiv-zalishivsya-1711392626.html
The situation is the same in Zaporizhzhia, where the HPP was damaged. https://vechirniy.kyiv.ua/news/96511/
The WSJ published an article on mobilization problems and accused the president of not wanting to make unpopular decisions during the war. Among other things, lowering the draft age. It seems to me that the president understands well that there is no point in making decisions that no one will implement, but journalists and deputies do not understand what the problem is at all. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cg69gx1660ko
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Thanks for your help yesterday, Wlad, I was able to login here, finally!
I thought I was reading things wrongly when I read that President Z. is trying to lower the draft age rather than increase it. In the US, drafts usually start with 18 to 19 year olds and if more men are needed, they increase the draft age upward. I had wrongly assumed that all countries did the same.
Braden
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Thanks for your help yesterday, Wlad, I was able to login here, finally!
I thought I was reading things wrongly when I read that President Z. is trying to lower the draft age rather than increase it. In the US, drafts usually start with 18 to 19 year olds and if more men are needed, they increase the draft age upward. I had wrongly assumed that all countries did the same.
Braden
You are welcome!
Ukraine also had its own way in this. In 2014 and early 2022, professional soldiers and volunteers of any age fought. Typically trained and/or motivated people. Then in 2022 the authorities did the following - they banned everyone from 18 to 60 years old from leaving the country, and compulsory conscription from 27 to 60, as a result of which the average age of a Ukrainian soldier became more than 40 years old, and corruption made it possible to leave the country or be declared unfit for service more profitable than the arms and drug trade combined. Regardless of experience, skills or social status, health conditions a person over 35 almost automatically receives a gun and, after a short training, is sent to the front line as an ordinary soldier. From time to time we hear complaints from commanders about the low training, motivation and endurance of such soldiers, but in general everyone is happy with everything. Except for the soldiers themselves, who can only leave the army dead or seriously wounded. I don’t know how this helps make the army stronger and win. I have already spoken about the economic effect many times before.
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Today the weather is beautiful, but my wife and I spent most of the day driving around the city collecting her documents and I was very tired. In the center, where I rarely visit, there were few people and cars.
Yesterday, the Ukrainian military attacked the large amphibious assault ship "Kostyantyn Olshansky" with the Neptune missile system. It was captured by the occupiers in 2014 in Crimea and was now supposed to be used for strikes on our territory. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/zsu-atakuvali-neptunom-korabel-kostyantin-1711436572.html
They say that a third of the Black Sea Fleet of the invaders has already been destroyed.
Today, russia hit Kharkiv again, this time for the first time with aerial bombs. Residential buildings were destroyed, there were killed and many wounded. This is a very bad sign, because Kharkiv may become the next city to be completely destroyed like Bakhmut or Avdiyivka. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c2q732glgl5o
Just today I sent a Grundig G3 Globe Traveller radio, that was given to me by Charles KC8VWM more than year ago, to a friend in Kharkiv in case of blackout.
The President suddenly decided to replace the head of the National Security Council of Ukraine. The function of the Security Council is "coordination and control of the activities of the executive authorities in the sphere of national security and defense of Ukraine", but the real powers were determined by its head and his relationship with the president.
51-year-old Oleksandr Lytvynenko, appointed as the new Secretary, is a cabinet scientist devoid of political ambitions and a general-specialist in one bottle. A native of Kyiv, in 1994 he graduated from the Institute of Cryptography of the Russian FSB Academy. After that, he served in the Main Communications Department of the Security Service of Ukraine, taught at the Kyiv Institute of International Relations, defended his doctoral dissertation in political science, and worked at the National Institute of Strategic Studies.
From 2014 to 2019, Lytvynenko was the deputy secretary of the Security Council, from 2019 to 2021 he headed the National Institute for Strategic Studies, from July 2021 to the present day he was the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c6p4jqd5y76o
Rumors say that this is a person close and loyal to Yermak, but I don't know anything about it. Perhaps we will face unexpected and drastic decisions at the highest level without the need to pass laws by parliament or decrees by the president. Perhaps in order to effectively fight with russia, we need even more people who graduated from russian educational institutions of the Ministry of Defense or the Federal Security Service.
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https://news.yahoo.com/american-aid-finally-coming-back-133057468.html
I can only hope this happens next week.
Stay safe Wlad, Eugene.
73
Jaye
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https://news.yahoo.com/american-aid-finally-coming-back-133057468.html
I can only hope this happens next week.
Stay safe Wlad, Eugene.
73
Jaye
Thank you Jaye!
I'm very skeptical. In Ukraine, the meme “in 2-3 weeks” has been in use for two years now. It was used by former Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksiy Arestovych, who now lives in the United States and sympathizes with russians, when he began his speech with the words “in 2-3 weeks the russians will run out of missiles.”
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Today is a busy day again. A strong wind and a headache haunted me while we went to the bank and I was finishing a lawsuit with my wife’s former employer to collect back wages. I want to file it tomorrow while my wife is here and can sign all the papers.
Today, the Kyiv Defense Council, referring to the threats of missile attacks and the penetration of russian sabotage and intelligence groups, decided to take measures to limit the gathering of people and introduce other restrictions. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/03/28/novyna/bezpeka/zahroza-raketnyx-atak-ta-pronyknennya-drh-rada-oborony-kyyeva-uxvalyla-kilka-rishen
I can imagine how russian sabotage and intelligence groups are secretly sneaking into Kyiv with the sole purpose of gathering together for a large rally. Obviously, fears of losing power, as happened with former President Yanukovych, who fled to russia in 2014 as a result of the Maidan, are becoming stronger. I remember Orwell's words “We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it.” again.
“Sometimes the Ukrainian government may resist the kind of freedom of information that’s normal for us,” said the State Department’s James Rubin. “Some days, war reporters report things that aren’t necessarily in the interest of Volodymyr Zelensky,” he continued. “But in a democracy that we hope and increasingly see Ukraine becoming … they can understand that having war reporters cover the war, even if occasionally there’s bad news, is a far better life than the controlled environment that Russia has placed on all of its people.”
While Ukrainian and Western journalists have pressed for greater access to the front lines, authorities in Kyiv have limited reporting from sensitive zones in the conflict and have denied a stronger role for state broadcasting, on the grounds that the restrictions serve to stifle Russian disinformation campaigns. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-needs-to-be-more-open-about-sharing-battlefield-truths-says-us-diplomat-james-rubin/
“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”
― George Orwell, 1984
MEP Viola von Cramon-Taubadel, German politician and a member of the European Parliament's delegation to the EU-Ukraine Parliamentary Association Committee and is, in fact, the spokesperson of her group in the European Parliament on the topic of Ukraine.
She explained why, on the eve of russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, she said that "the Ukrainian authorities are probably using drugs."
"Because your favorite speaker accused all Westerners of spreading panic. Moreover, he stated that everyone who warned of a full-scale Russian invasion was only going to destroy the economy and devalue the currency. I was shocked when I read it. My first reaction: What is wrong with this guide? Do they use drugs? Why didn't they take intelligence warnings from Washington and London seriously? Why not prepare and protect your own population with civilian measures? Why not switch to a military economy? But instead we were ridiculed as warmongers. After 4 weeks, a full-scale invasion began.
So I think there's clearly unity in reforming the country, putting the right bills forward, making sure that everything is according to the European track. So from our side, there is no criticism, I would say. But there's also a second angle and that means governance and governance means inclusiveness, means rights of the opposition, parliamentary pluralism, means inclusion of civil society, means working with, let's say, experts on the ground and not just with very few people in the presidential administration.
I see that there is room for improvement. There is potential for improvement. It's about governance, it's about the question of democratic standards in the parliament, here in the country, and we see some, let's say worrisome indications, and we see some crazy draft bills which do not fit in the EU acquis, which do not fit in this ambition of becoming a member. So yes, the reforms are there, but institutional-wise and democracy-wise, they have to be as ambitious as the other parts of the reforms." https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/interview/mep-viola-von-cramon-wobbliness-of-some-eu-1711611336.html
Earlier, the former member of the Bundestag, Viola von Kramon, commented on the draft law of People's Deputies Maryana Bezugla and Halyna Tretyakova, in which it is proposed to imprison Ukrainians for communication with foreign officials. Maryana Bezugla called her recent bill a "joke", but after criticism, she deleted the post and wrote a new one, where she already called it a "provocation".
"Is she serious? A legislator in the Verkhovna Rada introduces draft laws to do what? Provoke? I hoped that here, in Kyiv, we would deal with more mature colleagues," Kramon said. https://bukvy.org/nas-vysmiyuvaly-yak-pidburyuvachiv-vijny-kramon-pro-poperedzhennya-ukrayiny-shhodo-vtorgnennya-rf/
Good news - today a russian military plane crashed over the occupied Crimea.
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It rains almost all day and in the evening there is thunder and lightning. My friend in Kharkov had his mobile network restored enough for us to talk on the phone. He received the Grundig radio and will study the manual and charge the batteries. Then I will tell him about frequencies and other things related to radio reception. Unfortunately, he only knows Ukrainian and russian, which greatly limits his ability to listen to news in other languages. However, this is a common problem for most Ukrainians. Ukraine has restored broadcasting of only one weak station on medium waves. I wonder if he will be able to receive it. According to him, there is no air defense in Kharkiv, and missiles and drones fly overhead as if at home.
Today, russia launched a new combined attack on Ukraine with Shahed drones, cruise missiles from the Tu-95MS and aeroballistic missiles from the MiG-31. During the massive attack that lasted all night, the russians fired 99 missiles of various types and drones at energy facilities of Ukraine, the Air Force reported in the morning. 58 "Shaheds" and 26 missiles were shot down. As a result of a large-scale attack on the power system, there is damage to the energy infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Cherkasy, and Chernivtsi regions. Emergency power outages began in some regions. The Ukrenergo company reported that thermal and hydroelectric power plants in various parts of the country were damaged. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/czrz2gjzjg9o
Minister of Finance Serhii Marchenko calls to be prepared for a possible deterioration of macro stability in the second half of 2024 - in 2025. "The situation with macro stability is quite simple: there is money - there is stability, there is no money - there is no stability," he said. The minister specified that Ukraine currently depends on partners for half of its needs. "We want our current magical reality to accommodate the prospect that this may not always will be the same. And we may need to think now, prepare for what awaits us in the second half of 2024, what awaits us in 2025." https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/976941.html
Unfortunately, there is also a parliamentary crisis in Ukraine. In addition to the historically low number of MPs, the rest of them often do not attend parliament sessions, so there are often not enough votes to vote on bills. This does not look very responsible for a country at war and creates even more imbalance in the direction of the executive power. I will not be surprised if the day comes when the parliament is dissolved and only the president remains.
Ukraine is currently not ready to repel another major russian offensive, which is expected at the end of May or in June. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said this in an interview with the American channel CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/ukraine-russia-war-zelenskyy-says-putin-will-threaten-nato-quickly-if-not-stopped/
I liked the subtle sarcasm in Politiko's article: "No one doubts Zelenskyy's rhetorical mastery — he has proven his showman's ability to capture the hearts of interlocutors and connect with diverse audiences many times over." https://www.politico.eu/article/can-ukraine-zelenskyy-win-over-us-trump-war-russia/
Indeed, we have already seen how he convinced pootin not to attack Ukraine in 2022, and I am sure we will see how he will convince Trump to help Ukraine in 2024 in the event of the latter's victory. Of course, there will still be someone to help by that time. Of course, populism works in the case of an undemanding voter, but I doubt that empty talk and promises can influence politicians and businessmen of the highest level.
Oleksandr Syrskyi gave his first interview in the position of commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, to which he was appointed by the president in February. Instead, it was formal and so optimistic that I couldn't bring myself to believe a single word. The country's leaders continue to reassure the population that everything is under control and there is nothing to fear. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c2ej22l5rpvo
The Ukrainian government budgeted nearly $1.4 billion in 2024 to buy and develop weapons at home — 20 times more than before russia’s full-scale invasion. And in another major shift, a huge portion of weapons are now being bought from privately owned factories. They are sprouting up across the country and rapidly taking over an industry that had been dominated by state-owned companies.
As impressive as Ukraine’s defense sector transformation has been, the country stands no chance of defeating russia without massive support from the West, said Trevor Taylor, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.
russia’s war in Ukraine is not a standoff over whose got better drones or missiles, said Serhii Pashynskyi, head of the National Association of Ukrainian Defense Industries trade group. “We have a war of only two resources with russia — manpower and money,” he said. “And if we learn to use these two basic resources, we will win. If not, we will have big problems.” https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-weapons-russia-drones-90b03d92f72f878c8c2ac04b0d12f804
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Happy Easter to all who celebrate the occasion!
After changing the dates I'm completely confused about this. However, to communicate with God I do not need any intermediaries or special dates. And no one can stop me from doing this or set ridiculous restrictions.
A whole year has passed since the operation, but today the doctor looked at the numbers of my blood pressure and pulse measurements and said to continue the treatment without changes. I agree that I haven't gotten better in the last three months. However, perhaps spring and the sun will add energy to me.
The press service of the Ministry of Social Policy reported that the population of Ukraine may decrease significantly in the next 26 years. In 2050, 25.2 million people will live in the country, which is almost 10 million less than now. According to the project of the country's demographic development strategy until 2040, the average life expectancy decreased by 10 years: for men - from 66.4 years to 57.3 years, for women - from 76.2 years to 70.9 years.
The main reason for such a forecast is war. But there are other reasons that are related to: mass employment in harmful and dangerous conditions; getting into a road accident; abuse of alcohol, psychoactive substances and smoking; lack of informing the population about healthy lifestyle skills; low availability and quality of medical care in rural areas; a low level of well-being and an increase in the level of poverty. https://www.msp.gov.ua/projects/870/
At the same time, no one can predict how many more Ukrainians will fall under the occupation and emigrate in the near future. After the latest attacks on Kharkiv, all infrastructure facilities were disabled. https://rubryka.com/2024/03/31/u-harkovi-vdruge-za-vechir-prolunav-vybuh/ The authorities say that there is no panic, but you can already hear thoughts on the topic of evacuating the population. It is difficult to imagine where and how to evacuate about one million inhabitants of the second largest city of Ukraine. My friend from Kharkiv has not been in touch since yesterday and I hope it is only because of the lack of internet and electricity.
In Poland, they are going to provide an opportunity for refugees to change their status and grant permission for temporary residence and work within the next three years. I think obtaining citizenship will also be greatly simplified. It looks like the competition for Ukrainians is starting in the countries of the European Union. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warns of imminent war. https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art40091641-jacek-nizinkiewicz-donald-tusk-przepowiada-straszna-przyszlosc-niestety-moze-miec-racje
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In addition to Kharkiv, on Easter, throughout the night of the holiday, russia struck all regions of Ukraine with missiles and drones that reached the central and western regions. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cv2yll8yv8wo
On Saturday, the russians carried out one of the largest tank attacks near Avdiivka since the beginning of the war that lasted over two years. Forty-eight tanks and combat vehicles were sent to the attack. The attack was repulsed, the russians lost a third of their equipment. https://www.rp.pl/konflikty-zbrojne/art40095191-rosjanie-przeprowadzili-jeden-z-wiekszych-od-poczatku-wojny-atakow-pancernych-ukraincy-go-powstrzymali
The Mayor of Kyiv Vitaliy Klitschko warned that russia is not abandoning plans to attack the Ukrainian capital. At the same time, the head of the city noted that Kyiv is better prepared than two years ago for possible new attacks by the russian federation. This is reported in Bild am Sonntag https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/krieg-gegen-die-ukraine-wenn-putin-diese-entscheidung-trifft-wird-es-eine-blutig-87694586.bild.html
In anticipation of a million shells, Ukraine repairs American-supplied M777 towed howitzers using self-made spare parts, since there are no new supplies, and repairs abroad take a very long time. Ukraine got, from allies including the United States, at least 190 of the M777s. By 2023 the five-ton, five-person howitzers—which lob 100-pound, 155-millimeter shells as far as 18 miles without rocket-assistance—were among the best and most important big guns in Ukrainian service. In 25 months of hard fighting, the russians destroyed—mostly with drones and artillery counterbattery—44 of Ukraine’s M777s and damaged another 38 of the guns. That has reduced, by nearly half, the number of M777s on the front line. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/29/ukraine-could-get-millions-of-artillery-shells-and-soon-its-getting-its-best-guns-ready-to-fire-away/?sh=cf9f4d631146
I don’t even know how to comment on the presence of only 100 worn-out M777 howitzers. However, France promised to supply hundreds of old, but still serviceable armored vehicles (VAB https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V%C3%A9hicule_de_l%27Avant_Blind%C3%A9 ) within 2024-2025 years. https://www.leparisien.fr/international/guerre-en-ukraine-la-france-va-livrer-des-centaines-de-blindes-anciens-et-des-missiles-aster-a-kiev-31-03-2024-AUH36UH47NHXPGRLUYNJKNILZQ.php
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Meanwhile, the President unexpectedly fired several of his friends who were appointed as advisers immediately after winning the 2019 elections. At the same time, he left one of them in the team. No one knows what this means, but this person manages part of the President's assets. https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-news/zvilnenij-iz-op-shefir-zayaviv-scho-zalishaetsya-v-komandi-zelenskogo-vin-mij-drug-a-tse-vazhlivishe-za-posadu.htm
Presidential elections did not take place, and you will learn about it rather from foreign mass media, for example CNN mentioned it https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/30/europe/ukraine-election-zelensky-intl/index.html. In general, I got the impression that this issue is far from the first place for society. And the point is not that millions of people could not vote, as millions could not do it in 2014 and 2019 and nobody was bothered by it and did not question the results of those elections. It is obvious that Ukrainians do not consider elections and voting rights to be important. And this actually explains the results of the previous elections and the reluctance of the people to bear responsibility for their choices and gives an idea of the level of development of democracy in Ukraine. Especially in conditions when someone would rather lose the country than cede power.
And again some numbers.
More than 70% of the budget of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine in the amount of 862.6 billion hryvnias for 2024 will go to payments to the Ukrainian military. Another 20% will go to the purchase of weapons, said the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Yuriy Dzhigyr https://gazeta.ua/articles/politics/_na-zarplati-vijskovim-v-2024-roci-pide-70-byudzhetu-minoboroni/1176533
The National Police of Ukraine announced a tender for the purchase of 10,000 handcuffs worth almost $400,000. https://prozorro.gov.ua/tender/UA-2024-03-28-003247-a
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I saw recently where Lukashenko openly said that they are preparing for war; naturally he was told to state this, by the Kremlin. I see this morning that they are going to be conducting military exercises near the NATO and Ukraine borders. I suppose the Kremlin considers that they've worn out the empty nuclear threats, which no one believes anymore, so this is a new intimidation tactic to try.
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I saw recently where Lukashenko openly said that they are preparing for war; naturally he was told to state this, by the Kremlin. I see this morning that they are going to be conducting military exercises near the NATO and Ukraine borders. I suppose the Kremlin considers that they've worn out the empty nuclear threats, which no one believes anymore, so this is a new intimidation tactic to try.
Lukashenko has long benefited from supporting pootin but avoided direct involvement in the fighting. Perhaps because Belarusians are very peace-loving people and can cause his regime more problems than help. Their effectiveness as fighters will be insignificant, but people’s support for Lukashenko may immediately end. However, nothing can be said for sure now.
Tonight I felt bad again, but even healthy people are knocked down by weather changes such as daytime temperatures of +24C, then a strong wind that knocked crows off tree branches, then rain and tomorrow the temperature drops to +9C.
Maryna is already on the train on her way to Poland. The train is more expensive than the bus, but it is more comfortable to travel in it and there is a higher chance of not being delayed because of Polish farmers or those who disguise themselves as them, blocking the borders.
Everything is changing rapidly and we don’t know when we will be able to see each other again. Judging by the request for legal advice on divorce proceedings, their number has increased significantly. But one can hardly call a relationship normal when a woman can visit her husband once every few months, as if he were in prison. Naturally this leads to divorce. However, imagine what it’s like for a mother with a small child who cannot come to Ukraine because of his age or because the woman works abroad. A large number of Ukrainian children grow up virtually without fathers. I am lucky that my children are old enough and I managed to take part in their upbringing earlier, and my wife still hopes that we will be together someday.
The President signed a law adopted almost a year ago lowering the age for mobilization from 27 to 25 years, as well as creating a register of those liable for military service. Apparently the time has come to make unpopular decisions. If only they were effective! In the large new mobilization bill, which is still being considered by parliament, demobilization remains one of the main issues. Or rather, its absence, which has the most negative impact on mobilization. Nobody wants to get a one-way ticket, which has led to businesses preferring to pay fines for unregistered workers rather than register them as conscripts. With the new law they want to increase fines and liability for this. It seems to me that this will not lead to an increase in those wishing to serve, but will further reduce the number of those wishing to work officially. Even now, when inspectors appear, offices and workshops simply close and people leave. They also canceled the previous conclusions of medical commissions about unfitness for military service and ordered those unfit for health to undergo them again. Perhaps over time people become healthier. You can imagine yourself in the shoes of those who volunteered or were drafted in the spring of 2022 and have no chance of leaving the army. Even those who have grounds for dismissal and decide to sue the state are in for a surprise, since the position of the Supreme Court of Ukraine is that all trials involving military personnel must be stopped before they leave the army. I'm trying to find a rational explanation for all this and I can't. Or rather, the conclusions to which such a policy leads raises doubts about the correspondence of real goals to those declared by the authorities.
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Today, once again, my friend from abroad asked me whether Western aid, about which so much is written in the press, has arrived in Ukraine and whether I have seen the French soldiers whom Macron promised to send. This made me laugh. Although apparently this is exactly what everything looks like from the outside, causing confusion as to why russia has not yet been defeated.
The American right’s destructive isolationism, Europe’s arguably glacial approach, and sanctions that haven’t fully impeded the Kremlin all make russia’s expulsion increasingly unlikely. russia’s sanction-proofed economy is helping it avoid a defeat in Ukraine. As mentioned, the partial impact of Western-led sanctions on russia is deliberate. The continued flow of russian hydrocarbons is seen as essential for global energy market stability by most international leaderships — a view that’s tacitly accepted by the U.S. and the EU. https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-sanction-proofed-economy-avoids-defeat-ukraine-energy-oil-hydrocarbons/
Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in Tatarstan (subject of the russian federation). The drones flew over 1,200 kilometers to the target. https://usm.media/ukrainski-droni-atakuvali-npz-u-tatarstani-u-ponad-1200-km-vid-kordonu/
Also in Tatarstan, today, explosions rang out at the factory where Shahed kamikaze attack drones are assembled. The enterprise was attacked by drones. https://tsn.ua/svit/u-rosiyskomu-tatarstani-bpla-atakuvali-zavod-iz-virobnictva-shahediv-vibuhovi-video-2548435.html
But the US did not support the organization of strikes on russian territory, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on April 2 during a joint press conference with French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejournay in Paris. "We neither supported nor provided opportunities for Ukrainian strikes outside Ukrainian territory," said Blinken, answering a journalist's question about Ukraine's strikes on oil facilities in russia. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-blinken-udary-po-rosiyi/32888338.html
Today the russians again attacked Kharkiv and Dnipro with bombs and missiles. https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/637550-vibuhi-v-dnipri-zs-rf-atakuvali-misto-raketami-ye-postrazhdali-ova
Ukrainian drone attacks on russia will end after the capture of Kyiv. russia is dealing with a very vile enemy who, instead of using traditional fighting methods, attacks secretly, said the head of the defense committee of the russian State Duma, Andrei Kartapolov. https://www.rp.pl/konflikty-zbrojne/art40097481-rosyjski-polityk-ataki-ukrainskich-dronow-na-rosje-skoncza-sie-po-zdobyciu-kijowa
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I think the US is "probably" helping the Ukrainians to strike Russia in any way they can, but of course we have to say the opposite in public. Just as the US is severely criticizing Israel's strikes on Gaza, while still providing them with numerous arms to do it with (we delivered over two thousand 500 to 2000 pound bombs to them just a week ago, for example).
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Of course, no one admits to what they don’t want to admit. This is equally true for the US and China. By the way, China again said that there should be no winners and losers in the russian-Ukrainian war and calls not to discredit its "normal" relations with russia. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said this at a briefing, commenting on the telephone conversation between the leaders of China and the United States. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/3848136-kitaj-vvazae-so-v-ukrainskij-krizi-ne-povinno-buti-peremozciv-i-peremozenih.html
The situation in Israel is quite different. The question is not about help, but about its amount. As spectacular as the occasional drone attacks are, they don't have much effect. It all comes down to who has greater superiority in conventional weapons - aviation and artillery. As far as I understand, Ukraine is now using reserves in anticipation of the next deliveries. Defense forces of Ukraine are confronting the russian occupiers against the backdrop of an acute shortage of ammunition. Some Ukrainian guns only fire one shot a day to conserve their depleting supplies. Kyiv's allies are increasingly afraid that under such conditions the russian army may break through the defenses during an offensive this summer. https://informator.ua/uk/rosiya-mozhe-prorvati-oboronu-ukrajini-vlitku-cherez-nestachu-boyepripasiv-bloomberg
Ukraine does not need to mobilize 500,000 people, President Volodymyr Zelensky said. At the same time, he did not announce the required amount. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/977844.html
There are still no clear terms of demobilization, uncertainty with rotation, no understanding with which weapon the mobilized will fight. All this is reminiscent of working under a contract when one party constantly changes the terms and does not bear any responsibility for failure to fulfill its obligations, and the other party does not even have the right to terminate it.
According to a European intelligence official, the Kremlin is now working to orchestrate terrorist attacks on Belarusian soil – to put the blame on the Kalinovsky Regiment, an anti-Lukashenko unit fighting against russia alongside Ukrainian troops. https://lansinginstitute.org/2024/04/02/signs-of-russian-provocation-being-prepared-in-belarus-to-drag-minsk-into-war/
About 88% of refugees from Ukraine plan to stay in the country they are in for at least another six months. This is evidenced by the results of a study conducted by the research organization IMPACT. https://vsviti.com.ua/news/157904
Ukrainian authorities will seek ways to curb gambling addiction among troops as concerns mount that the gaming activity saps morale and poses a security risk. A petition filed by a Ukrainian serviceman pointed to the dangers of troops — often whiling away long hours outside of combat — spending chunks of their monthly wage on online gambling platforms on the mobile phones. Military personnel on the front can earn some 100,000 hryvnia ($2,500) per month, five times the average salary in Ukraine. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-03/ukraine-tackles-gambling-addiction-within-its-military-ranks
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US aid to Ukraine is coming, but as is always the case with the US, it will be called "loans" (that everyone knows will be forgiven eventually) and it will come at the last possible moment before disaster. There is something inherent in the US legislative system that causes this, and I've been watching it work this way for 64 years.
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US aid to Ukraine is coming, but as is always the case with the US, it will be called "loans" (that everyone knows will be forgiven eventually) and it will come at the last possible moment before disaster. There is something inherent in the US legislative system that causes this, and I've been watching it work this way for 64 years.
Maybe not this time. Everything changes and you can't stay the same. It looks like China is confidently winning this war. russia remains a dangerous monkey with an nuclear bomb, but it has finally fallen under the influence of China. Its economy, army and industry are completely dependent on China. China is increasing its dominance in the world, while the United States is rapidly losing it. The policy of isolationism will lead to the loss of military and political dominance in the world, and the hope of maintaining technological superiority may not be justified. Perhaps globalism will be replaced by regionalism. I don't know and it won't be right away. Now the facts are that russia has rebuilt its military after suffering enormous losses during its invasion of Ukraine, according to a U.S. State Department official. “We have assessed over the course of the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily,” said Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell at an event hosted by the Center for a New American Security. https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2024/04/03/russian-military-almost-completely-reconstituted-us-official-says/
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China is doomed to be a declining power, in my opinion, due to its demographic collapse. The US makes many mistakes, but at least has a government system that is capable of correcting itself eventually. China has Xi, who makes mistakes and kills anyone who points those out. Hence China doesn't worry me too much. But it does seem like we are headed for a potential world war, between who? I don't know.
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The wife of SBU cyber security chief Vityuk bought an apartment for 1.4 million dollars, and her mother bought two more apartments, mass media. VIDEO Source: https://censor.net/ua/n3482608
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Today I was thinking that the attitude towards war in countries where there has not been a war for a long time, and their armies fought only on foreign territories, will be very different from those countries where war is a frequent event and it affects not only the military. In particular, a book by the Czech writer Jaroslav Hašek about the adventures of a mobilized guy during the First World War, who was not eager to fight, preferring to sleep and eat well, was translated and popular in the Soviet Union. But his observations of the army and warring countries are still relevant today: "I was discharged from the army for idiocy and officially certified by a special commission as an idiot. I'm an official idiot". Jaroslav Hašek. “The Good Soldier Švejk and His Fortunes in the World War”.
In Ukraine, the status of "limited suitability" was canceled. Now military men and conscripts can only be fit or unfit for military service. The same citizens who still have the status of limited suitability must undergo a repeat military medical examination within 9 months.
But how will this happen in practice? Will everyone who was previously limited suitable become full suitable after military medical commission? Will they expand the list of diseases with which they will be considered unfit for military service?
There are many people with limited suitability - both those who have certain diseases and those who have been injured. However, these changes can create certain problems for thousands of other people with the disease. At least in the first stages of the reform. The law enters into force a month after its publication, i.e. on May 4. After that, the government will have another three months to adopt normative legal acts that should regulate how to assess suitability for military service. There is also no answer as to how millions of men have to undergo a new examination in such a short time. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4nv12ydq5po
I again ask the question that I asked earlier - why can't you just copy this procedure from the NATO protocols, the standards of which the Ukrainian army has been following since 2014?
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted that the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine is difficult because, according to him, russia manages to advance along the front line, and therefore he predicted two scenarios for the development of events. The first is that NATO member countries manage to increase their support, and then Ukraine will be able to return more territories. Another scenario involves the option when NATO fails to mobilize support for Ukraine — and then russia seizes more Ukrainian territories. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8RoU8HY1B8
French President Emmanuel Macron called the russian side's speculation that French special services may be involved in the attack on the Crocus City Hall concert hall "strange and threatening". https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/04/4/7183092/
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China is doomed to be a declining power, in my opinion, due to its demographic collapse. The US makes many mistakes, but at least has a government system that is capable of correcting itself eventually. China has Xi, who makes mistakes and kills anyone who points those out. Hence China doesn't worry me too much. But it does seem like we are headed for a potential world war, between who? I don't know.
China has nuclear weapons and there are a huge number of russians and Chinese in the EU and the USA. Do the EU and the US have the same agents in China and russia? It is always easier to destroy than to create, especially if you do it on someone else's territory. Isn't what is happening now a direct consequence of underestimating russia, China and Iran? I don't know what you mean by demographic collapse in China, but so far they have a population of 1.4 billion. versus 334 million in the US and 447 million in the EU.
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The UN projects that China's population will fall to 800 million by the latter part of this century. However, the UN is a very political body that tends to cater to larger countries' propaganda needs, and many demographers have noted that the collapse will happen by midcentury. Population is already declining precipitously there, thanks to Mao's one-child policy which not only reduced populations, but caused a huge decrease in females being born (couples aborted females to gain a male heir).
Of course, this all gets back to the fact that in a totalitarian regime, there is no corrective mechanism for stupid policy decisions by the dictator. Democracy has huge flaws, but not that one, which is critical. Mao said "one child only, and if you disagree, you die." 50 years later, China is no longer the world's supplier of excess labor.
There's no stopping the collapse at this point.
I consider all of these stresses to be tangential to the Ukraine war, but it could definitely have an effect on WW3! I hope I am deemed to be an "official idiot," because it will be a much better deal than being a foot soldier. Especially at 64 years old!
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I consider all of these stresses to be tangential to the Ukraine war, but it could definitely have an effect on WW3! I hope I am deemed to be an "official idiot," because it will be a much better deal than being a foot soldier. Especially at 64 years old!
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that the mobilization in Ukraine will be much milder, and all the necessary tasks will be completed during the year. According to him, the army currently does not need another 500,000 people. The Prime Minister added that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, conducted an audit of the Defense Forces and began the first rotation at the front after the start of the full-scale war. He drew attention to the fact that currently the army already has new brigades, which are staffed with people. Units are waiting for equipment, military equipment and ammunition from allies. https://flot2017.com/popovnennia-zsu-shmyhal-poobitsiav-m-iaku-mobilizatsiiu-podrobytsi/
On closed forums, people write that some of the forces have indeed been moved from the rear and support units to the front. But again, these are those who are over 40 and there is not much benefit from them in battle. And no one was returned to their place. As some say, even if the war ends tomorrow, this government will not restore people's freedom. It seems that this concern for people is caused solely by the lack of money to finance even the existing soldiers. Just as the official figure of the dead is limited by the available money due to payments to their families.
While the borders are closed for ordinary Ukrainians, Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin actively visited foreign countries in 2023, spending 103 days there. At the same time, he spent more than half of his business trips in the United States, where his wife lives. At the same time, the Prosecutor General's Office noted that in 2023-2024 Kostin's visits abroad "contributed to the signing of important agreements, the investigation of war crimes against Ukraine and the provision of assistance to our country in this process." https://informator.ua/uk/genprokuror-kostin-torik-probuv-u-vidryadzhennyah-za-kordonom-bilshe-100-dniv-polovina-z-nih-v-ssha-de-zhive-yogo-druzhina
Today, during an air raid, explosions rang out in Zaporizhzhia and people were injured. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/04/05/novyna/bezpeka/zaporizhzhi-prolunala-seriya-vybuxiv-ye-postrazhdali There are also constant attacks on Kharkiv.
In recent weeks, 80 percent of the capacities of Ukrainian thermal power plants (TPPs) were destroyed due to strikes by Russian troops on the energy infrastructure, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal said. https://www.dw.com/uk/smigal-rf-znisila-80-vidsotkiv-potuznostej-tes-ukraini/a-68752060?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
Calls are being heard in the government to build thousands of small ones instead of large power plants for local energy supply of cities and factories. I have no idea what it should look like in the cities, but I associate this enthusiasm with the limitations of foreign funding, including for energy needs. Under the Ukraine Facility program of the EU, Ukraine receives 50 billion euros during the years 2024-2027. The adoption of the bills "On the basic principles of the state housing policy" and "On the basic principles of recovery" remain the structural beacons that must be fulfilled in order to receive funding. Each tranche of financing means that Ukraine has fulfilled a certain beacon. In the current year, Ukraine received funds primarily as macro-financial assistance - to support the budget. Also, within the framework of this assistance, there is a portion that can be spent on investment projects, in particular, in energy, housing, and transport. The second tranche is an investment fund from the EU for business in the amount of almost 7 billion euros. The third is technical and administrative support for almost 5 billion euros. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/stalo-vidomo-ki-zakonoproekti-gotuyut-zabezpechennya-1712249114.html
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Borys Shefir, a former business partner of Volodymyr Zelensky, gave an interesting interview. It is interesting that he likes russian culture, he offers to be friends with russia, but he left and lives in Germany for some reason. In the early 2000s, together with his brother Serhii Shefir and Volodymyr Zelensky, he founded "Kvartal-95 Studio". When Volodymyr Zelensky decided to run for president, Borys Shefir took an active part in the campaign, was one of the co-authors of his pre-election program. However, unlike his brother Serhiy Shefir, who was the first assistant to the president from May 2019 to March 30, 2024, Boris Shefir did not receive an official position in the civil service, nor was he formally involved in political processes in Ukraine.
- Why did you decide to go abroad?
- What to do in a warring country, tell me?
- What is your current relationship with the president?
- There are none with the president. For two years, I did not call or talk to him. He is working with other people now. He does not communicate with me, does not call me. My calls there remain unanswered. Therefore, there is no relationship. Well, you see, I am his senior friend. Roughly speaking, I participated in its formation. But now he listens to other people and does something a little different to what I like. He made such a decision.
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/intervyu-spivzasnovnyk-kvartalu-borys-shefir/32890812.html
As in Poland, Ukrainians in the Czech Republic will be able to obtain a long-term residence permit instead of temporary protection. https://www.mvcr.cz/clanek/ekonomicky-sobestacni-ukrajinsti-uprchlici-ziskaji-moznost-se-dlouhodobe-usadit-v-ceske-republice.aspx
The Main Directorate of Intelligence together with the Armed Forces of Ukraine organized an operation on the night of April 5, in the framework of which three airfields of the russians were struck. In particular, Tu-95MS bombers were damaged. As a result of the drone attack, at least three Tu-95MS strategic bombers at the Engels-2 airfield were probably seriously damaged. Seven occupiers died there, among them may be bomber pilots. Another object of attack was the military airfield in the city of Yeisk. As a result of strikes by Ukrainian drones, at least four occupiers were destroyed there and two enemy Su-25s were completely burned up. Also, the interlocutors reported the damage to another airfield in Kursk. Details of the results of this attack have not yet been reported. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/gur-ta-zsu-organizuvali-ataku-tri-rosiyski-1712325303.html
Unlike russian prisoners, who are held in comfortable conditions in special camps, Ukrainian prisoners in russia are held in prisons and subjected to torture. https://uatv.ua/uk/polon-u-rosiyi-pro-grubi-porushennya-prav-ukrayintsiv-rozpovily-v-tsentri-gromadyanskyh-svobod/
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From time to time, HR's calls me and we talk about offers on the market. Unfortunately, there have never been any coincidences, but because of this I know about the situation in the market. Once there was a vacant position in one of the largest law firms in Ukraine. They did not call back. And then I read the article of their managing partner and understood what is the big problem of most businesses in Ukraine. Times and circumstances have changed, but they continue to live and work in the old way. He recognizes the shortage in the personnel market and the threat of future competition from international companies, plans the company's activities based on a negative scenario in the short and medium term, and hopes for the positive development of the country's economy and the resumption of investment after the end of the war. Instead, at the end, he asks the key question for now - when exactly will the war end? Many have put their lives on hold and are not prepared to live on standby for several more years, so the main danger is that if the war drags on significantly, people will lose patience and continue to leave the country in search of a more predictable, secure life. https://yur-gazeta.com/dumka-eksperta/maybutne-yuridichnogo-rinku.html
Therefore, most are waiting, surviving at the expense of old projects. And I wonder if it is worth wasting time with them, trying unsuccessfully to compete with active and energetic youth, engaging in low-skilled available work? I also do not lose hope of participating in interesting projects after the end of the war, but I decided to spend time on improving my skills and creating products that do not bring money now, but can be a good demonstration of my knowledge and skills. One of them - together with Dave KB9YYM, I plan to prepare and conduct a webinar for Ukrainian lawyers about bankruptcy procedures in the USA. One way to improve legislation is to understand and implement more sophisticated procedures from other jurisdictions.
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The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, together with his closest entourage agreed on the replacement of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Andriy Kostin.
According to ZN.UA with reference to sources in the leadership of the "Servant of the People" faction, Oleg Kiper, the head of Odesa OVA, is being considered as his likely successor, Censor.NET reports.
As noted by ZN.UA, the appointment of Oleg Kiper to the position of Prosecutor General was lobbied by the head of the OP Andriy Yermak. "The president is not happy with Kiper's candidacy, but Yermak is promoting him a lot," a ZN source shared his observations.
According to ZN.UA, Kiper has a question. His family lives in Austria, where he also traveled during the invasion. In addition, information about his wife's Russian passport appeared on the website of the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation, which was noticed by the journalists of "Scheme" during the scandalous investigation about the Christmas vacation in Cyprus. Law enforcement agencies also have questions regarding the construction of fortifications in the Odesa region."
In addition, Oleg Kiper is one of the high-ranking officials who is trying to hide the wealth of his family and himself. The National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption classified Oleg Kiper's declarations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 due to mobilization. This was reported to the "Center of Public Investigations" by Yulia Koltak, the press secretary of the head of the OVA.
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Air attacks on Kharkov, Odessa and other cities continue every day. In Kyiv, everything is calm even when the air raid alert is sounded.
Today the sunny again and I feel good. My Mouse is already very old. She has poor eyesight, trembles often, and her fur looks like carpet that has been eaten by moths. She gets very scared if you touch her. However, she doesn’t even realize that she lived almost her entire life in war.
I feel much older. I've become noticeably slower, but I don't need to fuss. However, I have a lot of time to think. We change under the influence of circumstances and I think that I have changed a lot over these two years. It turned out to be very important to control emotions. It is because of rash reflex actions due to strong emotions that people do a lot of stupid things. Although it is very difficult to remain calm when observing injustice everywhere and the desire of some people to force others to follow rules that they do not consider binding on themselves. I am surprised with how easily some people make decisions about the fate of others, and with what humility others agree with this. And then the first consider it correct and normal, losing adequacy.
If we do not take into account some incorrect conclusions and comments from journalists, then from Ermak’s direct speech it is clear how strong his desire is to wishful thinking and shift responsibility to others. It is very convenient to make the people who “don’t want to fight” to blame for the defeat. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-andriy-yermak-interview-volodymyr-zelenskyy-russia/.
With no way out of a worsening war, Zelensky’s options look bad or worse. Zelensky has said Ukraine will accept nothing less than the return of all its territory, including land that russia has controlled since 2014. But with the battle lines changing little in the last year, militarily retaking the swaths of east and south Ukraine that Russia now occupies — about 20 percent of the country — appears increasingly unlikely. Negotiating with russian President pootin to end the war — something Zelensky has rejected as long as russian troops remain on Ukrainian land — is politically toxic. The Ukrainian public is hugely opposed to surrendering territory, and pootin has shown no willingness to accept anything short of Ukraine’s capitulation to his demands. The status quo is awful. With the fight now a grinding stalemate, Ukrainians are dying on the battlefield daily. But a cease-fire is also a nonstarter, Ukrainians say, because it would just give the russians time to replenish their forces. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/06/ukraine-war-zelensky-options/
BILD journalist Mark Oliver Rühle commented on an article by the Italian newspaper La Repubblica that NATO is informally discussing the immediate admission of Ukraine to the alliance in exchange for Kyiv’s renunciation of the territory occupied by russia. On Thursday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in Brussels that the only way to a just and lasting peace in Ukraine is to guarantee the military power of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to convince pootin that he will not win on the battlefield. As Rühle notes, these words “do not contradict the plan for partition and immediate NATO membership.” The BILD columnist recalls that after World War II, Germany was divided in a similar way. In the Soviet zone of occupation, the state of the GDR was created, which existed until 1990. https://t.me/BILD_Russian/15669
He apparently does not know that the Ukrainians in the occupied territories do not speak the Ukrainian language and will repeat the fate of the Ukrainians in the border territories occupied by the russians 100 years ago, in which the entire population was russified within one generation.
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Ukraine will lose the war against Russia if they do not get the corruption under control
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I think corruption is under complete control. This is one of the few things that works perfectly in Ukraine.
russia-friendly populist Peter Pellegrini elected Slovak president. A former prime minister, he is an ally of Prime Minister Robert Fico, and shares the PM's dovish attitude towards russia. Mr Fico and his allies now control Slovakia's parliament, government, and soon the president's office. Slovakia had been one of Ukraine's staunchest allies before Mr Fico came to power in October on a pledge to halt supplies of Slovak Army military stocks to Kyiv. With Mr Pellegrini replacing Mrs Caputova, Ukraine has now definitively lost a voice of support in an EU and Nato capital. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68754112
Meanwhile, the President said that the Parliament should vote for the law on mobilization in the coming days and accused the deputies of populism. He criticized the deputies, who, in his opinion, are delaying the adoption of the draft law and trying to remove from it all the norms that cause a public outcry, and transferred the responsibility for reserves from the military command of the state to the Parliament of Ukraine. President Zelenskyi also believes that russian propaganda managed to sow doubt in the West regarding the provision of aid to Ukraine due to the delay in mobilization, and precisely because of russian propaganda, the issue of mobilization began to divide society into those who are "for" and those who are "against", into military and civilian. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c280e7x7eglo
Well, we saw another demonstration of the ability to make a show out of everything, including war. Unfortunately, Ukraine is still full of people who continue to believe in this nonsense.
The situation in Kharkiv continues to deteriorate and the question of evacuation is already being discussed due to the inability to protect this city from russian shelling. Occupied Donetsk was also shelled.
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Law enforcement officers exposed the head of the infectious disease department of one of the medical institutions of the Dnipropetrovsk region, who "found" serious diseases in conscripts for bribe
In exchange for a bribe, the defendant entered into official documents knowingly false information about the state of health of conscripts. Source: https://censor.net/ua/n3483194
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Not much news today. Still fine weather and bombings of Kharkov and Zaporozhye, Russian advance in the east. There is little information about the dead or generally objective information about the situation at the front.
But the show of the absurd continues in full force. As I expected, the 2024 season of the series “Servant of the People” promises to be one of the most interesting.
The Ministry of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine has confirmed the status of the TV channels participating in the "One News" telethon as critically important for the functioning of the economy and ensuring the livelihood of the population in a special period.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/telecom/978806.html
This applies to pro-government channels, and there are almost no others left on TV and radio. All opposition channels have long been deprived of licenses and are presented exclusively on the Internet.
The trust of Ukrainians in the telethon "One News" continues to fall - as of February, only 36% of respondents trust information from the marathon. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/02/19/7442501/
Accordingly, public demand for the termination of the telethon is now extremely high. But this will not happen in the near future.
Representatives of the oligarchic groups, who at the beginning of the great war sacrificed their information resources for the noble goal of providing round-the-clock information to the society, simply do not want to remove TV channels from "One News".
After all, President's Office will interpret it as a political gesture. And none of the oligarchs is ready for an open fight with the authorities, which are most interested in continuing the telethon.
It is not profitable for the political leadership of the state to stop this media mechanism. With the existence of the telethon, the government provides itself with stable informational support and minimizes any manifestations of political competition.
"One News" actually turned into a television holding of the President's Office. Also absolutely free - with the money of oligarchs and taxpayers.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/04/8/7450157/
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Law enforcement officers exposed the head of the infectious disease department of one of the medical institutions of the Dnipropetrovsk region, who "found" serious diseases in conscripts for bribe
In exchange for a bribe, the defendant entered into official documents knowingly false information about the state of health of conscripts. Source: https://censor.net/ua/n3483194
Also, real patients will suffer, who will have to prove that other official documents signed by the same doctor are real. The moral of this story is very simple - if you break the law, don't forget to share the money with a higher level. Then you will not only not be persecuted, but you will become part of the system that will protect you.
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Against the background of optimistic propaganda about successes at the front, from those directly present at the front, for some reason, only information about the advancement of the russians is here and there. Also, their planes and helicopters fly unhindered almost over the front line, which has not happened since March 2022. Statements by Western leaders about the intention to increase the supply of weapons are contradicted by reports from weapons manufacturers about the lack of raw materials and production capabilities to do so.
Bombs devastate Kharkiv and other cities every day. russia has changed its attack tactics on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, using high-precision missiles to destroy power plants in areas less protected than Kyiv. Some of which will not be fully restored until next winter, writes the Financial Times. Ukrainian officials have said that, despite the smaller scale of the strikes, the damage caused by these attacks is greater than in the winter of 2022-23, and that the russians' goal is to cause irreparable damage. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/clkeg01j30no
Today I didn’t have time to get to the radio at all. Sergiy suddenly decided to go with a colleague to the Carpathian Mountains for weekend and I had to urgently make him an antenna - inv.V and help him figure out the radio, power supply and everything else. It turned out to be light, compact and will allow him to use it on two bands without a tuner. I hope he reaches destination and returns without problems. Man hunters are especially active in the western part of Ukraine and every person with a backpack is seen by them as wanting to escape from Ukraine for free.
We also spontaneously visited UT2UB. The news of UT5UT’s death https://forums.qrz.com/index.php?threads/ut5ut-sk.909148/#post-6839383 greatly upset me and I decided that I needed to at least sometimes communicate personally with those old people who were still alive. They shouldn't feel alone.
Then I discovered that my small laptop, on which the logger and radio control were installed, decided to completely break down. I think the problem is in the processor, because it freezes or turns off randomly, and sometimes multi-colored squares appear on the screen. They soldered the processor onto the board so this repair exceeds my capabilities and of course it makes no sense to pay at the service center. I have another old laptop and I'm trying to update Windows on it so that the logger can start. I spent the whole day in fuss. Tomorrow I plan to return to my normal daily routine.
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Very sorry to hear about his passing. Sounds like he was a real leader in Ukrainian radio.
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Very sorry to hear about his passing. Sounds like he was a real leader in Ukrainian radio.
He was a representative of the old generation who valued old values - knowledge of the Morse Code, participating in competitions, building antennas, collecting DX. I communicated with him personally several years ago when we worked together on a project. A calm and competent person with whom it was very comfortable to work.
This night there was again a major attack on the energy system and one of the largest thermal power plants near Kyiv was disabled, many facilities throughout the country were also destroyed. The threat of a blackout is becoming more and more real, but in Kharkiv and the region it has already become a reality. Even if we consider the heating problem to be postponed, the consequences of the destruction of the energy system cannot be underestimated. This time the russians are pursuing the goal of stopping the remaining production. The lack of electricity can also leave the population not only without the Internet, but also without refrigerators, air conditioners, food processing, and bread baking. Without electricity, the operation of city electric transport and central water supply will be impossible. This will definitely put a lot of pressure on the entire population and authorities.
Today, the parliament passed a law on the strengthening of mobilization, which is needed to ensure the military registration of the maximum number of men and to replenish the troops that have suffered losses in more than two years of full-scale war with russia. The law is mainly aimed at registering all conscripts and updating their data. This will simplify the mobilization process for the authorities, as recruiters will have up-to-date information on potential recruits. Also, men must have and carry military registration documents with them and present them at the request of the police or recruiters. Evaders will be able to have their driving licenses revoked through the court. They also face a significant increase in fines.
At the same time, the question of the new draft law on mobilization was from the very beginning a question of justice. About a tired army, which is slowly "wearing out" under the onslaught of a superior number of the enemy. About front-line fighters who objectively need a replacement. That two years of the great war seem to be a sufficient period for the preparation of this help. On the other hand, it is a question of predictability for those who will be drafted into the ranks of the Ukrainian army in the future. In turn, a potential recruit to the Armed Forces is often ready to join the army, ready to defend his native land. But he is not ready for the fact that a trip to the Military Commissariat will turn into a one-way ticket for him. The prospect of a specific date for demobilization, even if it is quite distant in time, could remove some of the fears of these potential recruits and somewhat ease the social tension caused by the topic of mobilization.
Instead, the regulations on the conditions of demobilization were excluded from the draft law. In his letter the day before, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi proposed to prescribe provisions on demobilization and rotation in the Armed Forces in a separate draft law to be prepared by the government.
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At present, it is not yet clear what real changes this law will bring, as it must first be signed by the president and the official text published. In Ukraine, due to the chaotic nature of the process, even the deputies themselves do not always know what they are voting on. Also, only time will tell how its norms will be implemented in practice, taking into account all other laws that will contradict each other.
Also recently, changes were made to the legislation regarding persons who were previously recognized as limited fit for military service, because there is a large number of intermediate states between completely healthy and completely unfit. Over the next nine months, starting in May, those with limited fitness must undergo a repeat military medical examination (MME) and doctors will decide whether they are fit or unfit for military service.
But the problem is that, although the deputies have adopted a new law, the Ministry of Defense has not yet developed a new order on the procedure for passing commissions and doctors still do not have criteria for classifying a person with limited fitness as suitable or unsuitable. After the list of diseases is updated, someone from those who were previously limited fit will be released. But it can be assumed that there will not be many of them, because the army is critically short of people. Perhaps people will no longer be recognized as limited fit, but may be recognized as fit only for service in support units.
In any case, in the third year of a big war, instead of a mechanism of mobilization and demobilization (rotation) adapted to war, we have even more chaos and uncertainty, and, accordingly, opportunities for corruption and abuse.
I also came across the opinion that this is a convenient way to get rid of all the patriotic and socially active people who joined the army voluntarily in 2022. These are the same ones who can then go to the Maidan https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/The-Maidan-protest-movement For a young and not yet very confident dictatorship, it is ideal that none of them return from the war. When the best are burned in the war, the worst will become even more obedient than usual.
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The Cabinet of Ministers approved the list of military and political risks, as well as the terms and conditions of insurance (reinsurance) of military and political risks during the activities of the Export Credit Agency. The main goal of the Agency's activity is to support and stimulate the large-scale expansion of the export of goods (works, services) of Ukrainian origin. The institution protects Ukrainian exporters from the risk of non-payments and financial losses related to the execution of foreign exchange contracts, and also provides a wide range of services that allow Ukrainian exporters to strengthen their credit policy and effectively manage their financial flows. https://jurliga.ligazakon.net/news/226902_eksportno-kreditne-agentstvo-strakhuvatime-vd-vonnikh--poltichnikh-rizikv-nvestits-v-ukran-kabmn-zatverdiv-poryadok-ta-umovi
The amount of real military aid to Ukraine from Germany turned out to be significantly lower than what was written on paper. At the same time, the difference is about 20%, and so far Ukraine has generally received less than half of the promised amount. As the deputy of the CDU/CSU opposition bloc, Ingo Gedehens, found out. He sent a request to the government demanding an explanation of these figures.
Thus, according to the statements of the federal government, 28 billion euros were allocated for military aid to Ukraine. But at the same time it turned out that 3.4 billion euros of the specified amount can be returned from EU funds. The deputy estimated that the real amount of German support should be estimated at 10.2 billion euros.
BILD writes about it https://t.me/BILD_Russian/15718
Trump supporters are preventing Speaker Johnson from bringing the 60$ billion bill to a vote. And there is no pressure on them. The last to try to convince the Americans were their main allies, the British. British Foreign Minister David Cameron came to Washington this week with a message about the importance of helping Ukraine. Speaker Johnson refused to meet with him, citing his busy schedule.
Cameron first of all paid a visit to Trump - even before he went to the Capitol. But his charm was not enough to move the position of Trump's supporters from a standstill on the question of aid to Ukraine, which was expressed by Marjorie Taylor Green, who represents Georgia in the lower house of Congress, even before the visit of the retired British prime minister. She offered the British minister to "kiss her ass" and not interfere in domestic American politics. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c163dwxr4k1o
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Unfortunately, my small laptop that I used for the radio broke and was not worth repairing, so I restored the laptop I was given earlier for parts. It was a very dirty home for cockroaches, so I had to wash it thoroughly in the shower. I also found a screen for 10 bucks instead of a broken one and replaced it. It is big and quite slow, but allows you to run N1MM.
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Today I went to see another doctor and it cost me 30 dollars including a cardiogram. I am concerned about my high blood pressure and I decided to hear an alternative opinion that goes beyond the treatment of the heart itself. The doctor looked at the papers from previous clinic visits and asked how I cope with stress. I honestly answered that my health problems helped me with this. For some time I completely switched all my attention from external events to internal problems. Everything else practically ceased to exist for me. I still do not allow what is happening in the country to take over my emotions, leaving the analysis of the situation to the rational mind. This is akin to the advice that if you are feeling sad, try running and you will quickly realize that your physical health is even worse than your mental health. At a time when the majority of the country's population needs the help of psychiatrists, they themselves are not in the best condition. Therefore, I consider self-control and the ability to cope with panic attacks when you wake up at night because your heart is beating abnormally and there is noise in your ears due to high blood pressure, a very important skill. I bought some more tablets in beautiful packaging and will see how they help me.
On the way home, I stopped by the post office and picked up a package from Dave KB9YYM. He again sent me some magazines, hygiene items and a flashlight. In the event of another blackout, I won’t be bored.
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The russian occupiers continue to strike Ukraine's energy infrastructure every day. During April 11, several important facilities came under attack at once, in particular, the enemy hit the Sumy CHP and completely destroyed the Trypil CHP, which was the largest supplier of electricity in Kyiv, Cherkassk and Zhytomyr regions. It is reported that 75-80% of the total thermal generation is damaged. The loss of such capacity in practice means that already in July - August we will probably not be able to avoid supply restrictions.
https://24tv.ua/raketna-ataka-11-kvitnya-2024-yaka-situatsiya-zi-svitlom_n2533900
The General Staff announced the rotation. Thousands of soldiers from the rear will go to the front.
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pBhvFEwfM3qwwCzFJbHM5JeedKNTnsdds9ShBux3P5Mn8Z9BodiAHM7UNYyNcX9Wl
The Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko stated that the police databases contain data on hundreds of thousands of citizens who, according to the military commissariats, may be evading service. https://glavnoe.in.ua/news/u-bazah-policziyi-ye-sotni-tysyach-mozhlyvyh-uhylyantiv-klymenko
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As I watch the war progress, I begin to associate it with one factor - the cost of people. People are not spared when they are useless or cheaper than complex mechanisms. It seems to me that there is a direct dependence on what method politicians choose to achieve their goals, taking into account how they evaluate their population and how people evaluate themselves. This is probably why the leaders of the EU and the US are trying to avoid escalation at all costs.
Today I spoke with a friend of mine who works in a state organization, who explained the low quality of specialists and the lack of people by the fact that no one wants to go to work for a low salary and because of how mobilization is taking place. Even if reservation or deferment from military service is provided for such employees, they must be registered in the military before being hired, because the reservation is carried out already after the person is hired. However, with a high degree of probability, he will be sent to the front before he can be reserved.
The head of the State Agency for Reconstruction and Development of Infrastructure of Ukraine, Mustafa Nayem, stated that his agency, which was specially created to protect energy facilities, should not protect thermal power plants. This agency works to protect only distribution substations of the state-owned Ukrenergo. At the same time, according to Nayem, it is up to their owners to protect thermal power plants. https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-glavnaya/analytics-and-forecasts/najem-zayaviv-scho-za-zahist-tes-vidpovidayut-ih-vlasniki-derzhagenstvo-vstanovilo-zahist-tilki-na-pidstantsiyah-ukrenergo.htm
The russian summer offensive will probably take place in 4 directions: Donetsk region, Kherson region, Luhansk region, Zaporizhzhia and a possible assault on Kharkiv. At the same time, as of now, the situation has "significantly worsened" on the eastern front line. But the Armed Forces are trying to stop russia's intensifying multi-pronged offensive. This is reported by The Financial Times with reference to Ukrainian and Western officials. https://informator.ua/uk/vlitku-ochikuyetsya-nastup-rf-na-chotiroh-napryamkah-i-shturm-harkova-financial-times
Ukraine used drones to attack a russian military unit in the city of Kovilkino in Mordovia, the distance to the target is about 650 kilometers. 590 separate radio engineering unit (military unit 84680) was attacked, which is armed with the 29B6 "Container" over-the-horizon radar, the target detection range is about 3,000 km, and the altitude is over 100 km. https://flot2017.com/udar-na-650-kilometriv-drony-pidirvaly-vijskovyj-radiotsentr-rf/
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Today it was cloudy and I rode my bike for the first time this year. In the evening there was a short rain with strong wind and it's going to get very cold soon. Again there was no propagation, but Colin repaired his antenna and we were able to conduct a QSO on 21 MHz. This lifted his spirits significantly. Compared to last year, I had half as many contacts with the Japanese in their national competition, but I still think this is a good result.
This is the third time I congratulate my son on his birthday over the phone. Perhaps we should be glad that there is still at least such an opportunity.
The main news was Iran's attack on Israel. Everyone had to compare it with similar russian attacks in Ukraine. Despite the fact that not only Israeli anti-aircraft systems and aviation took part in the defense of Israel, and that US and British forces were also used, some of the missiles reached their targets. At the same time, Iran did not use the entire range of its missiles, limiting itself only to their simple versions. Iran used about 300 missiles and drones that hit two air bases. The US is calling on Israel not to respond to these strikes, but it seems the Israeli government will do as it sees fit. It looks like the war in Israel is just beginning and more and more US attention, money and weapons will be directed to Israel, and not to Ukraine.
In Ukraine, russian shelling again damaged energy facilities in several regions; a ballistic missile was shot down over the Dnipro, but its parts damaged several houses and injured several people. A large column of smoke rose above the city. https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-glavnaya/communalka/rosiya-obstrilyala-energetiku-ukraini-yaka-situatsiya-v-sistemi-14-kvitnya.htm
Another scandal in the army. Inspections and transfers began in the 67th brigade due to the loss of positions. The reason for the loss of important positions near Chasiv Yar was problems within the brigade itself. Official investigations have been opened against unit commanders. Fighters and commanders of this brigade deny the accusations. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/kriza-u-67-y-brigadi-pochalisya-perevirki-ta-perevedennya-cherez-vtratu-pozitsiy
Apparently, the problem is that this brigade was formed from volunteers back in 2014, and during the time of the former chief Valery Zaluzhny, they managed to maintain a certain autonomy in the brigade and have support from the General Staff. Now it will be disbanded. I think this is a consequence of the change of commander. Zaluzhny, following the NATO model, delegated more authority and allowed commanders to choose the best way to perform tasks based on the situation, while Syrsky, as an old Soviet officer, runs the army as the russians do. The russians are succeeding at the cost of huge losses, and time will tell to what extent this will be accepted by the Ukrainian army and society.
After the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky visited positions in the east of Ukraine for two days, he reported that "the situation on the Eastern Front has significantly worsened in recent days." https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c9xzldj95yeo
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On the energy infrastructure, I read a report saying that Russia is now not only bombing civilian facilities, but then when the repair crews arrive, they send in more bombs to kill those who have the repair skills. Dastardly.
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On the energy infrastructure, I read a report saying that Russia is now not only bombing civilian facilities, but then when the repair crews arrive, they send in more bombs to kill those who have the repair skills. Dastardly.
They've always done this. Double strike tactics. I heard that last week the rescue protocols were changed due to this.
It rained all night, but in the morning the sun came out. In some regions, the storm damaged homes and power lines. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/znosit-dereva-ta-obrivae-droti-chastina-ukrayini-1713207406.html
I started having strange dreams again. Either the weather has been nice lately or the extra meds have worked, but I feel better. Perhaps this is a direct consequence of the lack of night missile attacks. Despite the destruction of the energy structure, Kyiv has not yet had problems with electricity. Perhaps they will begin in the summer when energy consumption increases.
One of the terrorists' goals is to reduce the volume of industrial production due to a lack of electricity. Oleksandr Kamyshin, Minister of Strategic Industries, said that in 2024, Ukraine has $6 billion to purchase weapons, particularly from domestic manufacturers, but our production capabilities are three times greater. According to him, the entire defense budget for 2024 is about $40 billion, of which $30 billion is for salaries and payments to military personnel. https://war.gordonua.com/ukr/virobnichi-mozhlivosti-ukrajini-vtrichi-bilshi-nizh-tsohorichnij-bjudzhet-na-zakupivlju-ozbrojennja-dlja-zsu-minstratehprom-1704255.html
But apparently the authorities are not going to ease the restrictions that prevent businesses and people from increasing GDP and the number of taxes that could be used to increase the military budget, which would return to the economy. Therefore, we continue to have stagnant production, simultaneous unemployment and labor shortages, and an ever-increasing budget deficit.
In private construction, activity is noticeable only in the Kiev and western regions. Builders note a shortage of workers and rising prices for their services.
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Taking advantage of the fact that the United States is busy with internal problems, China and Germany are trying to seize the initiative in international relations.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday said he had asked Chinese President Xi Jinping to exert influence over russia to end the war in Ukraine, adding that both leaders rejected attacks on nuclear facilities. Speaking on economic issues, Scholz said Europe wanted to reduce risks, intensify existing contacts and build new ones. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-scholz-i-asked-chinas-xi-pressure-russia-stop-war-2024-04-16/
Chinese President Xi Jinping called on "all sides to work together" to restore peace as soon as possible and "prevent the conflict from getting out of control." China supports all efforts for a peaceful settlement, as well as the holding of an international peace conference recognized by both russia and Ukraine with equal participation of all parties, Xi told Scholz. He wants a "fair discussion of all proposals" to take place. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/si-tszinpin-skazav-sholtsu-yakoyu-vin-bachit-mirnu-konferentsiyu-shchodo-ukraini
China's public statements are always vague and it is quite difficult to find any alternative to official information. Even an article that appeared recently in The Economist can also be considered a reflection of the official position, because author Feng Yujun is a professor at Peking University and Deputy Dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. He says that russia is sure to lose in Ukraine and the war has strained Sino-russian relations.
Four main factors will influence the course of the war. The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary. The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad. The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long.
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/11/russia-is-sure-to-lose-in-ukraine-reckons-a-chinese-expert-on-russia
At the same time, he in every possible way justifies China's policies and actions and denies supporting кussia, noting that China is simply continuing previous relations and trade. This is fully in line with China's position of putting its own interests above all else.
A lack of air defense missiles prevented Ukraine from thwarting a russian missile attack last week that destroyed the biggest power plant in the region around the capital Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. Zelenskiy's comments, which follow repeated warnings from his government to its allies about scarce air defences, reflect the dire situation Ukraine finds itself in as russia scales up strikes on its energy system. "There were 11 missiles flying. We destroyed the first seven, and four (remaining) destroyed Trypillia. Why? Because there were zero missiles. We ran out of missiles to defend Trypillia," he said in the interview with PBS. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-ran-out-missiles-stop-russian-strike-ruining-power-station-2024-04-16/
Great Britain avoids escalation in Europe - this is how the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom, David Cameron, explained the fact that British troops do not help repel russian air attacks, as in the case of Israel, when British Air Force took part in repelling an Iranian attack. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-cameron-brytania-drony-ukraina-izrail/32906200.html
US Vice President Kamala Harris, during a personal meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February, warned against attacking russian oil refineries. This tactic, according to American officials, could lead to an increase in global energy prices and provoke russia to even more aggressive behavior in Ukraine. However, Harris' words provoked an unexpected reaction from the Ukrainian leader: this request angered Zelenskyi and his colleagues, who considered it an intervention in a difficult war with a better-armed opponent.
According to The Washington Post, Zelensky, who was unsure whether the recommendation reflected the general view of the Biden administration, rejected it. But Washington soon reinforced that warning in numerous conversations with Kyiv, including through National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who visited Ukraine in March, and other senior US defense and intelligence officials.
But instead of tacitly acceding to U.S. requests, Ukraine doubled down on its strategy, striking a variety of russian targets, including an April 2 attack on russia's third-largest oil refinery 800 miles from its border. These developments have deepened tensions in Ukraine's relations with the United States, as Kyiv awaits a congressional decision on a long-awaited $60 billion aid package while russian troops push through Ukrainian positions along the front line. https://informator.ua/uk/wp-zelenskiy-vidmahnuvsya-vid-porad-z-bilogo-domu-shchodo-pripinennya-atak-po-rosiyskim-npz
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In regard to VP Harris's remarks: This morning earlier I also was thinking about the (unreasonable) demands coming from the US that Ukraine not inflict much damage on Russian infrastructure. It is impossible to win a war when one side is free to inflict any damage they want to, while the other combatant must restrain themselves in order to satisfy their "allies" who are concerned only about the effect of gasoline prices on their re-election. If this demand continues as-is (and I have no doubt that it will), then Ukraine will ultimately lose.
If I were Ukrainian, I'd be praying for the Lord to provide a way of escape.
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This morning the rain from yesterday continued until lunchtime. It's cold and damp again. I went to the market and discovered that large eggs now cost a little over a dollar a dozen, but meat had gone up a bit in price again.
In the morning after the air raid, it turned out that russian terrorists hit the center of Chernigiv, 100 km North from Kyiv, with three missiles. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68833833 My friend who lives there was at that time in a village nearby and did not regret it. Also today something was damaged in Odessa. Apparently air defense remains only in Kyiv.
Eyewitnesses report explosions in the area of the Dzhankoy military airfield in annexed Crimea on the morning of April 17. https://www.svoboda.org/a/v-dzhankoe-proizoshli-vzryvy-vozle-voennogo-aerodroma-voznik-pozhar/32908719.html There is no official information, but this is one of the few military successes in recent days.
Politico published an article "Ukraine is heading for defeat". https://www.politico.eu/article/why-ukraine-losing-russia-war/
The author rightly admits that Ukraine has big problems due to the lack of weapons and foreign assistance, low morale, and also accuses ordinary Ukrainians of not wanting to fight, but ignores the role of the Ukrainian authorities in this. The system they created in which the poor and sick, deprived of all rights and the opportunity to work and support their families, must fight with shovels, while the rich have fun and are not limited by anything, and the corrupt vertical of power generates billions of dollars from theft from the budget and bribery, by no means does not contribute to the country’s ability to defend itself, much less win. It is not surprising that fewer and fewer Ukrainians see the point in defending a country in which they are assigned the role of powerless slaves. The intimidation that the russians will destroy all the captured cities and kill all the inhabitants no longer looks very convincing to those who are interested in life in the occupied territories. Recently, those who have accepted russian citizenship have practically returned to normal life. Those who left Ukrainian passports can go anywhere without any problems.
In fact, all this resembles a soap opera in which everything goes exactly according to the script. At the right time, dramatic tension is created, from time to time old heroes leave and new ones appear. Intrigues and sudden plot changes keep viewers from getting bored. Despite everything, the situation can radically change in any direction. It's just not very comfortable to watch it while on stage.
Himera announced that it entered the world market and got an exclusive supplier in the USA. Their partner was the American company Reticulate Micro. https://www.facebook.com/HimeraUkraine/posts/pfbid0eKSzRtsPAJN8QrnN91vmSphrU3ueCE3NwJgYT1Md4iYXDd7jVvzc6va3dzfjKgwol?locale=uk_UA
If they find buyers, it is definitely a success. At least the business scheme looks working. If, for example, an American company formally participates in the tender, this will significantly increase the chances of winning. Especially if the terms state that preference will be given to a foreign company, and the one who offers the lowest price will win. At least this is how it is done in Ukraine and no one is interested in the opinion of those who will later use that equipment.
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In regard to VP Harris's remarks: This morning earlier I also was thinking about the (unreasonable) demands coming from the US that Ukraine not inflict much damage on Russian infrastructure. It is impossible to win a war when one side is free to inflict any damage they want to, while the other combatant must restrain themselves in order to satisfy their "allies" who are concerned only about the effect of gasoline prices on their re-election. If this demand continues as-is (and I have no doubt that it will), then Ukraine will ultimately lose.
If I were Ukrainian, I'd be praying for the Lord to provide a way of escape.
Every day I ask God to give me a sign and I see nothing. Despite the emotional chaos, carefully supported by the authorities, bloggers, journalists, experts and the people themselves, which excite each other, for some reason I look at everything that is happening very calmly and do not rule out an unexpected end to the war, including not only because of the defeat of Ukraine. Something tells me that a decision on this has either already been made or is being made, but russia has neither decisive superiority nor the right to vote.
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It rained all day again and I woke up late. The additional medications seem to be working, my blood pressure has dropped a little and I feel better. In a month you will need to take tests again and perhaps adjust something.
In the morning, during another air attack, something exploded in the Dnipro. Three missiles hit their targets. Lately, they no longer write how many were shot down and how many were not.
Today I watched a large professional development webinar on the topic of criminal prosecution of those who cooperate with the occupation authorities. The lecturer's main attention was paid to various problems. Predictably, conflicting legislation, failure to follow procedures by law enforcement agencies, and unavailability of legal assistance lead to the unjustified prosecution of innocent people. For example, sentences in criminal cases with real prison terms for those who practiced medicine or performed technical work in the occupied territories look nonsense, although such people are directly protected by international conventions on the protection of civilians during war, which are recognized by Ukraine.
However, chaotic changes in legislation lately have led to the emergence of a huge number of not always professional advice, especially in matters of mobilization. Illiterate people, lack of access to legal assistance, violations and abuses by officials and law enforcement agencies make the process of communication between people and the state extremely conflict-ridden and regularly leads to violence on all sides. The presence of a huge amount of illegal weapons among the population, on the one hand, equalizes the chances, but in general, the opening of a second front within the country can destroy this state.
Observing how things are going with Navalna, it seems that the West has a desire to once again play democracy with russia. This can be understood given the risks of complete control over russia by China. But this means that russia cannot lose in this war, and accordingly, Ukraine cannot win.
By the end of May, Ukraine will be able to export all the remaining grain of the 2023 harvest, which will lead to an increase in prices for it both on the domestic and global markets, the president of the Ukrainian Grain Association Mykola Horbachev said at the Black Sea Grain conference in Kyiv on Thursday. https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/981362.html
It sounds quite ambiguous. I do not rule out that if all the grain is sold, it will be necessary to buy it more expensively from the Poles, who will resell the russian grain collected in the occupied territories. It also indirectly says that there was not so much grain, since despite the complaints about blocking the borders, in fact, almost all the grain was already exported.
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CIA Director Bill Burns on Thursday warned that unless US sends more military support, Ukraine could “lose” the war against Russia by the end of the year. Just a month ago, Burns had warned in testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee that if Congress did not move to authorize additional support — long hampered by conservative opposition in the House of Representatives — “Ukraine is likely to lose ground and probably significant ground in 2024.”
But on Thursday during an appearance at the George W. Bush Center, he warned that Ukraine could be forced to capitulate entirely.
“With the boost that would come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, I think the Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own through 2024,” Burns said.
“Without supplemental assistance, the picture is a lot more dire,” he continued. “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could dictate the terms of a political settlement.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/18/politics/cia-director-ukraine-russia-warning/index.html
The head of the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, Denys Malyuska, said that the mobilization of prisoners will solve at least two issues: it will increase the number of military personnel and reduce the burden on prisons.
"We will win in two aspects. First, we will have military personnel. In the second aspect, we will not have to think about how to protect, feed, take care of them. Especially, in conditions of scarcity of resources and conditions of limited number in In our country, the number of people entering our institutions is increasing, and the number (of institutions) is decreasing. At some point, we can "flake up", so we need to think about how to reduce the number of those we care for in ours institutions," said Denys Malyuska.
He also added that the number of prisoners has increased due to the fact that "new categories of criminals that did not exist before" have appeared.
"In particular, there are a lot of collaborators. Before these were isolated cases, now it is quite a mass phenomenon... This is a new category that is difficult for us, because it is difficult for them to mix with other prisoners for security reasons. It is risky for their lives and health - other prisoners do not like this category. There are also categories related to military service," said Denys Malyuska.
According to him, we are talking about war crimes or crimes related to the fact that now it has become much more difficult with weapons.
"Accordingly, I can say that the number of people in each institution based on the area of the institution is growing, and it is growing significantly. This is a big problem and it needs to be solved somehow. How long-term - I can't even imagine. Maybe mobilization will become this recipe which will save us at least for a year or two," he added.
https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/malyuska-zrobiv-zayavu-pro-mobilizaciyu-zasudzhenih-ta-perepovneni-v-yaznici-yaki-mozhut-lusnuti-2560804.html
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I have been expecting US House speaker Johnson to more broadly accept support from House Democrats to move legislation, abandoning the so called Hastert Rule (good riddance!), and to counter the extremist Republicans threatening to remove him as Speaker. It looks like that will happen and aid to Ukraine may be restored soon. I certainly hope so.
Regarding the admonitions to Ukraine from the US administration to avoid striking Russian energy infrastructure:
In normal US political times, a moderate oil price increase from such actions, if it occurred, wouldn’t be such a cause for concern to either Ukraine or the US, and there would be support for Ukrainian actions. But these are not normal times, and one party out of two has lost its moral compass and much of its sanity, IMO. Of course Biden and the Democrats want to be re-elected, so there is self interest involved. But much more importantly for Ukraine, consider what would rapidly happen if Trump is elected.
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I would say that both parties have lost their sanity. Only in different ways. Especially in regard to out of control spending, but it goes beyond that. I am disgusted by US politics overall.
Europe seems to be slowly recognizing that Russia is not going to stop at Ukraine, should their invasion succeed. I hope Europe picks up the slack until the US election is over, and that the current government can stop being scared of the election effects of marginally high fuel prices. Besides, the government has the power to regulate the export of refined fuels by executive order, to mitigate fuel prices at the pump.
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This afternoon the Ukraine aid bill was passed. Finally!
73
Jaye
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It rained all night, I had strange dreams, I woke up several times and feel tired, although the blood pressure and pulse numbers are normal. Sometimes it seems that medications affect the numbers, but not the condition. It’s +14C in the apartment, but if you dress well and put a couple of bottles of warm water under the blanket before going to bed, you can warm up.
The last few days have been quite active in terms of missile attacks. russian terrorists are attacking Kharkov, Odessa, Dnipro, Sumy and Zaporozhye with drones and missiles, and aerial bombs. But they get targeted strikes in return.
A source of the Ukrainian Air Force in the main intelligence department reported that on April 11 and 17, drones attacked the russian over-the-horizon "Container" radar on the territory of the military radio engineering unit near the city of Kovilkino in russian Mordovia.
russia put the ultra-powerful over-the-horizon radar station "Container" on combat duty only in December 2019. Before that, it worked in experimental and combat mode for 7 years, and its construction began in the early 2000s. It cost 10 billion rubles.
The antenna system of the already built "Container" consists of 144 masts with a height of 34 meters. The length of the system is 1.3 km, width - 200 meters. The masts are arranged in the shape of a triangle to receive the signal from different sides.
So far, "Container" tracks only the western direction for the declared range of three thousand km with a viewing sector of 240 degrees. It can simultaneously "lead" about 5,000 air targets located at an altitude of up to 100 km and at a distance of up to 3,000 km, but no closer than 900 km. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c51nxp4n8q1o
The Ukrainian military announced that on April 19 they managed to shoot down a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber two Kh-22 cruise missiles, which it used to attack Ukrainian cities for the first time. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3gem0evr11o
The russians say that the plane fell due to a technical malfunction, and the Ukrainians say that it was shot down by a modernized Soviet missile system. There is also a version that it was shot down by russian own air defense units. In any case, this is good news, although we must not forget that they still have more than 50 such aircraft.
The exchange of missile strikes between Israel and Iran appears to have ended without further escalation, but tensions remain. This gives hope that Iran will help russia less because of its own needs for missiles and drones.
The energy company warns of possible power outages in Kyiv, but so far there have been none. Nevertheless, everything is charged, a month's supply of food and water, candles, batteries and everything else has been unchanged for two years...
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Wlad, I hope warmer weather comes soon and that you feel better with more time on the new medication.
Interesting info about Container. I hope the UA strike did substantial damage.
The TU-22M3 downing, assuming it was, is a milestone. Congratulations to your armed forces on destroying it so far from Ukraine.
The recent Iran/Israel open conflict on home territory was a little scary, as it could have escalated rapidly. Thankfully cooler heads prevailed. I agree with the opinion (I would give credit but I can’t find it now) that Iran “lost” the conflict and was shown to be quite weak in fighting its own battles. This because Iran was unable to directly harm Israel despite a massive aerial attack foiled by defensive systems and allied help, while Israel was easily able to send a single missile to target and explode right next to one of their prized nuclear installations. The clear message: Israel can strike you at will.
At long last it seems US aid will be restored very shortly! I despaired when Mike Johnson was voted Speaker of the House because of his far right views including antipathy toward Ukraine. His election seemed to cement the power of the minority of extremists in the GOP who had taken the House hostage. (This had been building for a long time actually, but that’s another topic).
But to his credit, Johnson changed his thinking over time and worked to secure the funding at substantial risk to his political career. He was only able to do so by ignoring the extremists and working with moderate Republicans and the Democrats. Here is a good article about it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/21/ukraine-aid-mike-johnson-house-speaker/
I am still sad and quite embarrassed that my country failed to aid Ukraine for months while the bombs rained down and the rabid extremists held sway in our Congress. I hope it will never be repeated.
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This afternoon the Ukraine aid bill was passed. Finally!
73
Jaye
President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed his gratitude to the US House of Representatives for approving a new $61bn (£49bn) package of military assistance for Ukraine after months of delays. He said the aid could save thousands of lives.
Well, I hope this time everything will be different than last time when late help led to the failure of the counter-offensive last year and carefully hidden casualties. If we consider only the facts, we see results that contradict the declared intentions.
At Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO) questioned Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin about Ukraine aid: "What does victory look like for Ukraine? How do you define victory?"
Austin answeared: "You may have heard my previous statements, Senator, we have said from the very beginning that we would like to see Ukraine as a democratic and independent country so that it can defend its sovereign territory and repel aggression."
Sen. Eric Schmitt: "With all due respect, I think part of the problem is that this administration has not outlined an exit strategy. As for me, this is carte blanche for a war that, without any clearly defined goals, will be endless. This is where the skepticism comes from. So I did not vote for an additional aid package because we do not have sufficient control over the spending of funds. And victory is not yet determined."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVPa6CqAsXw
THE UKRAINE SECURITY SUPPLEMENTAL APPROPRIATIONS ACT, 2024
The section totals $60.8 billion to address the conflict in Ukraine and assist our regional partners
as they counter Russia, $48.3 billion (or 79%) of which will fund the U.S. defense industrial base.
• Converts all financial assistance to Ukraine’s government into a loan.
• Requires the Administration to submit to Congress within 45 days a strategy establishing
specific and achievable objectives, with metrics, that define and prioritize U.S. national
security interests.
• Bolsters oversight through in-person monitoring requirements.
• Requires partners and allies to pay their fair share through cost-matching requirements.
• Increases the fiscal limits on several Presidential drawdown authorities.
• $13.4 billion to replenish American defense stockpiles.
• $7.3 billion for current U.S. military operations in the region.
• $13.9 billion for the procurement of advanced weapons systems, defense articles, and
defense services.
• $13.7 billion for purchasing U.S. defense systems for Ukraine.
• $26 million for oversight and accountability of aid and equipment provided to Ukraine.
https://www.speaker.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Fact-Sheet_National-Security-Supplemental.docx.pdf
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will head to Beijing this week, with a warning for China to curb its technical support for Russia's military — or else. https://www.politico.eu/article/antony-blinken-head-back-china-armed-threat-russian-military-aid/
The German chancellor Olaf Scholz held talks with the Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, as well as holding discussions with business leaders across China. https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/04/19/scholzs-visit-to-china-balancing-distance-and-diplomacy
No one talks about russia’s defeat and can’t even formulate what would be considered a victory for Ukraine.
These are the facts. They speak volumes. I am not a big analyst like highly paid guys from reputable media and various international organizations, and I only have publicly available information.
Based on the above, I can assume that there are active negotiations between the United States and Europe with China, in which the war in Ukraine is only one of the points for discussion and bargaining. From this point of view, the very process of adopting the Law on assistance to Ukraine looks like an instrument of pressure. Because the actual volumes of assistance and the timing of its provision are not yet known. I mean that the required amount of weapons will not automatically appear in the Ukrainian army immediately after Biden signs it.
However, if russia does not agree to end the war and China to help russia, some amount of American weapons will be delivered and the fighting will become more intense. The absence of large-scale offensives or meat assaults by russia, which is presented as its weakness, seems to me to be just a change in the approach to war. They became rational. Their soldiers have become well equipped, they first bomb and destroy fortifications and kill Ukrainian soldiers, and then slowly occupy more and more territories. Authorities show us every month the numbers of dead russians, but I am alarmed that they have not changed for a very long time and do not depend on the number of weapons Ukraine has. But what is even more important is that the number of deaths in Ukraine is not shown, although an indirect method has long been known - it is enough to come to the cemetery once a month and see how the number of fresh graves changes.
So what will be the immediate result of getting the extra weapon? Victory over russia? No. Ending the war? No. Tens of thousands of dead Ukrainians and several destroyed cities? Yes. Worst of all, an endless war of attrition leads to the attrition of only russia and Ukraine at a rate not in favor of Ukraine, and this is presented as the only option. Why isn't anyone suggesting other options? I understand Zelensky and the authorities, who offered the West an agreement "your weapons - our people", but they did not ask the people if they agree to it.
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Information:
There is a mobile app from Google, Google Translate, which can translate text seen in the device camera. I use it on my phone and point the camera at the buttons and labels for this forum seen on my iPad screen. It makes it much easier to post.
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Wlad, I totally agree with your analysis, and it's part of the reason why there is less support for funding Ukraine than there would otherwise be, among Americans. Our being deathly afraid of Russia's nuclear threats means there can never be a victory. The US and European governments have to decide that they're going to help Ukraine win the war by making Russia sick of the attacks on its own territory, based on Churchill's principle that the aggressor will make war until they have gotten so much war in return, that they are fed up with war.
The current situation in Ukraine is like a boxer who takes blow after blow, but isn't allowed to punch back. Biden's and the EU's fear of WW3 may actually lead to WW3, just as Neville Chamberlain's fear of WW2 helped lead to WW2.
That is why I applauded Macron when he said there may need to be European boots on the ground in Ukraine, if that's what it takes to win (sadly, other EU governments immediately undermined his statement, signaling to Russia that they have nothing to fear from Europe).
From what I've heard from military people, this coming week may be a very critical one for military movements worldwide.
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I too agree with you and with Brady. I have said before that IMO Biden was too cautious in the aid to Ukraine, and so didn’t capitalize enough on the great outpouring of support for Ukraine here in the beginning and throughout the first year of the war to ship far more and better weapons including aircraft. Domestically the extremist opponents among the US public and in Congress have had time to organize themselves, and elections are now close.
The funding from the just passed bill is shamefully late but at least it’s done. I hope that the Speaker’s eyes have been opened enough that more such aid will be forthcoming soon. Democrats and many Republicans will support him in that, and I believe they will also vote to keep him as Speaker should the extremists follow through on threats to remove him.
When reading about the bill its worth noting that monies for restocking US weapons means (generally) that more of ours can be sent to Ukraine. Also I noted the expected fig leaf of a “loan” and forgiveness clause for the money that will actually be sent to Ukraine.
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Information:
There is a mobile app from Google, Google Translate, which can translate text seen in the device camera. I use it on my phone and point the camera at the buttons and labels for this forum seen on my iPad screen. It makes it much easier to post.
Good adviсe!
I use it regularly. Although, when I tried to translate the old receiver's service manual from French, it was unable to adequately translate the outdated abbreviations and words.
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Wlad, I totally agree with your analysis, and it's part of the reason why there is less support for funding Ukraine than there would otherwise be, among Americans. Our being deathly afraid of Russia's nuclear threats means there can never be a victory. The US and European governments have to decide that they're going to help Ukraine win the war by making Russia sick of the attacks on its own territory, based on Churchill's principle that the aggressor will make war until they have gotten so much war in return, that they are fed up with war.
The current situation in Ukraine is like a boxer who takes blow after blow, but isn't allowed to punch back. Biden's and the EU's fear of WW3 may actually lead to WW3, just as Neville Chamberlain's fear of WW2 helped lead to WW2.
That is why I applauded Macron when he said there may need to be European boots on the ground in Ukraine, if that's what it takes to win (sadly, other EU governments immediately undermined his statement, signaling to Russia that they have nothing to fear from Europe).
From what I've heard from military people, this coming week may be a very critical one for military movements worldwide.
As I said earlier, the policy of attrition of russia is wise, but everything has a price. Already today, Ukraine has ceased to be the country it was before 2022, not to mention before 2014. This is a fact. The destruction, territorial and demographic changes are irreversible, and changes in the future, if restored, will make everything qualitatively different. I understand that Ukraine has no significance globally, just as no one is particularly worried about Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, and so on. Those who remain get used to it, children grow up not knowing any other reality at all.
As for Macron, I would consider his statements from a political point of view as popularistic. Duda's statements look more real.
The Polish authorities are ready to place nuclear weapons on the territory of their country. Polish President Andrzej Duda said this in an interview with Fakt, published on Monday, April 22.
"If our allies decide to deploy nuclear weapons as part of the joint use of nuclear weapons also on our territory to strengthen the security of NATO's eastern flank, we are ready for it. We are an ally in the North Atlantic Alliance, and we also have obligations in this regard, that is, we are simply implementing a common policy," the Polish leader said.
Duda also confirmed that the topic of placing nuclear weapons in the country "has been a topic of Polish-American negotiations for some time." https://newsyou.info/2024/04/polshha-gotova-rozmistiti-yadernu-zbroyu-duda
Meanwhile, russia continues to bomb the front line and cities in the east and south every day. This clearly indicates where their efforts are territorially concentrated - Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Odesa. There is an opinion that while military aid is on the way, russia will become more active.
Yesterday, everyone was discussing the spectacular damage to the TV tower in Kharkiv, although I think it happened by accident. There are other objects nearby that have been repeatedly attempted to be targeted. I think the missile just caught the tower, or missed it by a bit to break it completely.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFlmQL6kJdc
Another high-profile event was the shooting of police officers by the military at a checkpoint in the central part of Ukraine, hundreds of kilometers from the front. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c6pyngm37n4o According to the authorities, people dressed in military uniforms illegally transported weapons and attacked police officers during the inspection. They were detained very quickly, they have already confessed to everything and they will be put on trial in the near future. Everything could have been like that. Arms smugglers wear military uniforms and go straight to the checkpoint at night to be guaranteed to be stopped and searched. At a time when there are lots of secondary roads around the forest. But as a result, the army is still a little discredited, the police get the opportunity to demand additional funding and increased restrictions on the population.
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I don't think any country could go through what Ukraine is going through, and expect to emerge from it being anywhere near the same country in terms of culture or anything else. Lenin and his successors have a lot to answer for, in the hereafter, considering the monstrous country they have saddled the world with.
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The main topic of today's discussion of the entire country, even those whom it does not concern at all, is that Ukrainian men of conscription age abroad are no longer issued documents in consular institutions. Some draw attention to the fact that this happened in an order not provided for by law, but it seems that this is another attempt by the authorities to play on the public, which once again divided society.
"How it looks now: a man of draft age went abroad, showed his country that the question of its survival does not bypass him, and then comes and wants to receive services from this country. It doesn't work like that. There is a war in our country. That is why yesterday I instructed to take measures to restore fair treatment of men of mobilization age in Ukraine and abroad. It will be fair," said Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister.
Foreign divisions of SE "Dokument" have already suspended their work. This was reported on the department's website. But they said that it happened for technical reasons. The mass media reported that Ukrainian consulates in Poland also stopped providing services to men aged 18-60. The mass media also wrote that Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiga sent a letter to Ukrainian diplomatic institutions with a request to stop the provision of services.
These services are related to the issuance of passports and a whole list of notarial services: power of attorney certificates, permission to cross the border for minors, application for acceptance/rejection of inheritance, certification of wills; certification of the authenticity of copies of documents; certificates confirming personal data; identity card for return to Ukraine.
If the authorities decide not to issue passports to men aged 18 to 60 in Ukrainian consulates abroad, it will be a morally understandable decision, but in fact a bad and ineffective one, said Serhii Petukhov, former deputy minister of justice for European integration.
In his opinion, this will not force any man to return to Ukraine and go to fight. Further, the expert suggests, when a Ukrainian man's Ukrainian passport expires, he will either use a temporary certificate issued in this country, or apply for refugee status.
"And in European countries will have a great chance to get asylum," says the former deputy minister of justice.
Ukraine will now be compared with Belarus, Petukhov believes, which has also stopped issuing passports to its citizens who have gone abroad. After Oleksandr Lukashenko banned Belarusian citizens from issuing documents abroad, some Belarusians who emigrated found themselves on the verge of losing their legal status.
"As a result, we have a solution that does not achieve its goal, instead it creates significant reputational problems for the country," says the exhibitor. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c72prrlg3n0o
I even came across the opinion that кussia could take advantage of the situation and start issuing passports to citizens of Ukraine abroad. It is obvious that those who left Ukraine had no intention of returning to fight. In such a situation, it will be very difficult to remain a patriot.
It is more interesting for me to observe the opinion of Ukrainians within the country, some of whom pay attention to gross violations of human rights and legislation, and the other part gloats on the principle - let others feel as bad as we do. But everyone agrees that if you give a bribe, you can get everything.
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I don't think any country could go through what Ukraine is going through, and expect to emerge from it being anywhere near the same country in terms of culture or anything else. Lenin and his successors have a lot to answer for, in the hereafter, considering the monstrous country they have saddled the world with.
There is an opinion that many other countries helped him. They bought grain, from the lack of which millions of people died, provided technology and were generally recognized as a country.
But it is not important anymore. What is important is why, after the collapse of the USSR, such small and weak countries as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia did not become a victim of aggression, but large Ukraine with a lot of weapons, including nuclear ones, lost half of its population and a fifth of its territory in 30 years and is not going to stop. And I would not blame Lenin for this.
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Today, I woke up again at night with explosions. It turned out that drones that flew to Kyiv were shot down. There were also explosions in cities in the east. Today I had a conversation with a friend who believes that russia is weak and on the verge of defeat and western aid will end the war. He also believes that the impact of energy losses will not significantly affect the state of the country. I hold it as wishful thinking, but I don't believe it. Of course, they do not have the strength to confidently win, but one cannot underestimate their support from China. At best, the new weapon will allow Ukraine to stop russia's advance and start negotiations. Time will show.
A new office of the ruling party appeared near me. Are they already preparing for the elections?
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Many people complain about feeling unwell due to the weather, but tonight was the worst night for me in a long time. In the afternoon I forced myself to go out in the heavy rain and buy some food. Next month there will again be additional costs for visiting a doctor and tests, but it could be objectively clear how my body responded to the new medications. From the sensations, I can’t understand anything at all.
The more people study recent changes in legislation, the more unanswered questions appear. In two months, several million people should receive new military registration documents, but even if the authorities manage to approve the procedure for obtaining it, it will be physically impossible to do this, which, together with those who are abroad, will outlaw a large number of men within the country.
Today, there are no effective mechanisms for countering human rights violations in matters of mobilization. This opinion was reached by the participants of the round table on the topic "Ensuring the observance of human rights in the conditions of martial law", which was held at the initiative of the Youth Committee of the National Bar Association of Ukraine. https://unba.org.ua/news/9050-problemi-mobilizacii-v-aspekti-porushennya-prav-lyudini-ozvuchili-advokati.html
There are also initiatives to introduce criminal liability for criticizing the authorities and voicing any opinion that differs from the official one. In this regard, I found this document published by the State Department interesting - 2023 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Ukraine. https://www.state.gov/reports/2023-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/ukraine/
russia's atrocities are obvious and require no comment, but even to an outside observer, the violations in the government-controlled territory of Ukraine are obvious.
A. FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION, INCLUDING FOR MEMBERS OF THE PRESS AND OTHER MEDIA
The constitution and law provided for freedom of expression, including for the press and other media, but authorities did not always respect these rights. President Zelenskyy signed a decree imposing martial law in February 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which permitted further restrictions on the media and media freedoms. For example, the national TV Marathon – a rotating platform of channels that take the government line on war reporting – enabled an unprecedented level of control over primetime television news. Moreover, some media outlets reported being removed from lucrative terrestrial broadcasting contracts and pressure from the Office of the President as early as the spring of 2022.
The government banned, blocked, or sanctioned media outlets and individual journalists deemed a threat to national security or who expressed positions authorities believed undermined the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Some speakers who were critical of the government were also blacklisted from government-directed news programming. Investigative journalists critical of the government were sometimes targeted by negative social media campaigns, sometimes via government-friendly channels. Other practices continued to affect media freedom, including self-censorship.
B. FREEDOMS OF PEACEFUL ASSEMBLY AND ASSOCIATION
The constitution provided for the freedoms of peaceful assembly and association, and the government generally respected these rights. Martial law restricted movement, peaceful assembly, and media and introduced curfews. In war time, the country derogated from a number of its international human rights law obligations, including those relating to peaceful assembly.
Freedom of Peaceful Assembly
Mass gatherings were restricted due to the imposition of martial law. Even prior to the introduction of martial law in 2022, authorities had wide discretion under a Soviet-era directive to grant or refuse permission for assemblies on grounds of protecting public order and safety. Organizers were required to inform authorities in advance of demonstrations.
Freedom of Association
Attacks against civil society were prevalent and often were not sufficiently investigated. International and domestic human rights NGOs were concerned regarding the lack of accountability for these attacks, which they believed created a climate of impunity. Human Rights NGOs documented 22 cases of violence against civil society representatives in the first nine months of the year, but comprehensive data were unavailable, as many NGOs shifted to documenting conflict-related abuses once the war began.
D. FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT AND THE RIGHT TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY
The constitution and civil code provided citizens with rights to freedom of internal movement, foreign travel, emigration, and repatriation. The government, however, restricted these rights, particularly in the eastern part of the country near the zone of conflict. Under martial law, men ages 18 to 60 were prohibited from leaving the country.
The document is large and covers violations in other areas.
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The State Department's summary of conditions in Ukraine is fairly well recognized here in the US, making aid to Ukraine much harder to gain popular support. Just as frontline military fighters in your country wonder what they are fighting and dying for, taxpayers in the US wonder what they are paying for? Is it for a country that is transitioning toward a Russian-style pseudo-constitutional government?
Apparently the government of Ukraine does not see the connection between their abuses of citizens' rights, and the difficulty of getting aid from democratic countries. That's a pretty big oversight, if you ask me. Of course I realize that they may see the connection, and just not care.
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The State Department's summary of conditions in Ukraine is fairly well recognized here in the US, making aid to Ukraine much harder to gain popular support. Just as frontline military fighters in your country wonder what they are fighting and dying for, taxpayers in the US wonder what they are paying for? Is it for a country that is transitioning toward a Russian-style pseudo-constitutional government?
Apparently the government of Ukraine does not see the connection between their abuses of citizens' rights, and the difficulty of getting aid from democratic countries. That's a pretty big oversight, if you ask me. Of course I realize that they may see the connection, and just not care.
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Today the sun came out again and I feel better. Unfortunately there were several air raids during the day which prevented traditional radio communication with Colin. Nothing hit Kyiv, but in different parts of the country, railway junctions and other infrastructure facilities were destroyed by missiles. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/u-sumah-prolunav-vibuh-povitryani-sili-poperedzhali-pro-ruh-cili-v-napryamku-mista-50413192.html
The russians broke through to the village of Ocheretine in the Donetsk region, northwest of Avdiivka, and the situation on this part of the front continues to get more difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It was possible to do this thanks to the massive use of aerial bombs by the кussians, with which they break through the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Such a breakthrough endangers the city of Pokrovsk in western Donetsk region. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c043pxdx3yeo
According to the media, as part of the aid package, the USA handed Ukraine more than a hundred long-range ATACMS missiles. There is an opinion that the Crimean bridge will still be destroyed in order to complicate a possible russian attack from the south. https://bukvy.org/ssha-peredaly-ukrayini-ponad-100-raket-atacms-nyt/
When there were people, there were no weapons, because of which people died. Now there are weapons, but no people.
On April 24, the Verkhovna Rada increased the number of the State Border Service of Ukraine by 15,000 servicemen. Thus, the number of border guards within a year from the date of termination or abolition of martial law on the territory of Ukraine will be up to 75,000 people, including up to 67,000 military personnel. There has already been a joke that there are fewer and fewer borders in Ukraine, and more and more border guards. https://news.liga.net/ua/politics/news/verkhovna-rada-zbilshyla-chyselnist-prykordonnykiv-na-15-000-liudei
Refusal to provide consular services, for example, to renew a passport, will not affect the status of Ukrainian men staying in Germany as refugees. Ukrainian refugees have a protected status in all countries of the European Union due to the fact that they were forced to leave their homeland to escape russian aggression. This was reported by the official representative of the Ministry of the Interior of Germany, Maximilian Kahl, writes DW. https://www.dw.com/ru/ukrainskih-muzcin-ne-budut-lisat-v-frg-statusa-bezencev/a-68910874?maca=rus-newsletter_ru_krieg_ukraine-34209-xml-newsletter&at_dw_language=ru&at_number=20240424&r=57271922185652989&lid=2921889&pm_ln=249291
The decision to ban men abroad from using consular services will not solve the problem with mobilization, but it is well received by those who are immersed in the war: the negativity from the authorities is skillfully transferred to a certain group of Ukrainians. But it seems that it does not matter to the authorities, just as the effectiveness of the mobilization process does not matter, the main thing is to resonate with an enthusiastic audience.
russia's Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov is under investigation on suspicion of corruption, but Ukrainian intelligence claims that he was captured because Ukrainian intelligence gained access to his documents and information confidential to the enemy. https://24tv.ua/zastupnika-shoygu-rosiyi-zatrimali-vnaslidok-diy-gur-dzherelo_n2542160
Well, more thoughts about what and why is happening and what to expect.
The war in Ukraine could reach a decision point by the NATO summit. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-war-in-ukraine-could-reach-a-decision-point-by-the-nato-summit/
Victoria Spartz's opposition. Why the first Ukrainian woman in the US Congress did not support aid to Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cljd260ydrxo
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The State Department's summary of conditions in Ukraine is fairly well recognized here in the US, making aid to Ukraine much harder to gain popular support. Just as frontline military fighters in your country wonder what they are fighting and dying for, taxpayers in the US wonder what they are paying for? Is it for a country that is transitioning toward a Russian-style pseudo-constitutional government?
Apparently the government of Ukraine does not see the connection between their abuses of citizens' rights, and the difficulty of getting aid from democratic countries. That's a pretty big oversight, if you ask me. Of course I realize that they may see the connection, and just not care.
I agree that this is a very serious problem. But, most people in the US really don’t know or care about the details of government policies in other countries, so it isn’t primary for most voters and their representatives, but certainly adds more reasons not to support Ukraine for those who do care. I think we here understand the populist- isolationist and Trumpian reasons that are the primary drivers of the opposition.
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"I think we here understand the populist- isolationist and Trumpian reasons that are the primary drivers of the opposition."
I think you have partisan assumptions about what's driving it, which are largely Democratic party propaganda. Started with the whole "Russian collusion" hoax, and despite $35mm spent to find compelling evidence, none was found.
The narrative you are referring to are similar to conservatives who assume that because the Bidens had numerous business deals in Ukraine (a fact), then that must be why Biden wants to preserve Ukraine... both that narrative about Biden, and the narrative you are alluding to about Trump, are windmills of the (partisan) mind.
Believe it or not, there are actually people who honestly don't see a strategic national interest in fighting this particular war. Some are further persuaded that way because of eroding individual rights in Ukraine. I think they're wrong to oppose aid for Ukraine, but I also think both parties have lots of propaganda about Trump and Biden that have no basis in reality.
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Here are my reasons for saying what I did:
First let me say that I recognize that there are serious people with serious concerns about Ukraine. However they weren’t the ones threatening to call for a vote to start the process of removing Johnson if he accepted Democratic votes to pass the aid. Those were the extreme isolationists/populists (such as Taylor-Greene and friends) who lead the opposition. In the end they didn’t, probably only because the support for the aid bill was high and they would not have succeeded in removing Johnson.
It does appear that Trump has been a little more supportive of Ukraine in the last few days. I sincerely hope it is a lasting change. But Initially he was somewhat critical of Russia for the war but perversely very complimentary of Putin for being so “smart” to invade. He has refused to say which side should win the war. He also made the same populist complaints about support - we should reduce it because it costs too much, it hurts our military, etc. These statements do not give me any confidence that he would support Ukraine as president, and they can only encourage Putin.
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It does appear that Trump has been a little more supportive of Ukraine in the last few days. I sincerely hope it is a lasting change. But Initially he was somewhat critical of Russia for the war but perversely very complimentary of Putin for being so “smart” to invade. He has refused to say which side should win the war. He also made the same populist complaints about support - we should reduce it because it costs too much, it hurts our military, etc. These statements do not give me any confidence that he would support Ukraine as president, and they can only encourage Putin.
I wouldn't underestimate Trump. While he may compliment pootin, he may not agree with him, but the main problem for Ukraine if Trump is elected will be Zelensky. We know how Trump feels about him. Although everyone is strategically confident in Western support for Ukraine, no one knows what it will look like in practice. Also of great importance for Ukrainians is the situation within the country, which is getting worse every day. Instead of solving old problems, new ones are created according to the principle that if a square object does not fit into a round hole, then you just need to hit it harder with a hammer. But even nails sometimes bend instead of going inside.
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The air alarm lasted half the night. Rockets from Tu-95MS and supersonic missiles attacked Stry near Lviv, Prykarpattia and Dnipro. The main overhead line of Ukrenergo in the western region was disconnected due to the protection action. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3gl1053y5ko
Instead, Ukraine attacked an oil refinery and a military airfield in the Krasnodar region. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c72p0rlxd12o
The war in Ukraine, according to many American officials, has become a "testing ground" for a number of rapidly developing military technologies, writes The New York Times. But the American experience in Ukraine has underscored how difficult it is to get 21st-century data into 19th-century trenches. Even with Congress on the brink of providing tens of billions of dollars in aid to Kyiv, mostly in the form of ammunition and long-range artillery, the question remains whether the new technology will be enough to help turn the tide of the war at a moment when the russians appear to have regained momentum. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/23/us/politics/ukraine-new-american-technology.html?searchResultPosition=7
Also, the russians are advancing in the East every day.
I had no electricity for several hours during the day, although I never found out if it was due to the attack.
The sun is shining and it's warm again, and I'm regaining my energy. After lunch, my radio-friends came to visit me and we discussed the situation for a long time. They came to the conclusion that more deaths and destruction await Ukraine in the near future. It was recognized that the enthusiasm to fight decreases with age. This does not apply to those who fight for other people's lives, of course. In my opinion, this is the main problem. If presidents and generals personally had to fight alongside their soldiers, I think all wars would quickly stop.
While the authorities are deciding how to sort Ukrainians according to their suitability for service according to their state of health https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/obmezheno-pridatnih-ukrayintsiv-dilitimut-1714129818.html , business is once again saying that it is losing key specialists due to mobilization, the approach to which remains unchanged https://agrotimes.ua/agromarket/oficzijnyj-biznes-vtrachaye-bron-fahivcziv-shho-zabezpechuyut-vyrobnychyj-czykl/
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Perhaps this was already discussed long ago and I don’t recall, but why does conscription ( or voluntary) military service not start at age 18, as it does in most other countries?
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Perhaps this was already discussed long ago and I don’t recall, but why does conscription ( or voluntary) military service not start at age 18, as it does in most other countries?
Only the authorities know the answer to this question.
Anyone can volunteer to serve at the age of 18, but for various reasons almost no one does this anymore. And it's not a matter of fear of death. This did not stop thousands of people in 2022. Now many of those who volunteered then would not do so again.
As for young people. I don’t know the demographic figures, but it seems that those between 18 and 30 are proportionally smaller than others. Everyone agrees that a 40+ year old person with illnesses and no training does not make a very good stormtrooper. And others are not needed. Also young people, who was born and raised in a free country after Ukraine gained independence in 1991, has completely different views on life and requires a completely different attitude towards themselves. You can just look at how young people feel about work. They want to earn a lot, work a little, and have their incompetence respected. They were also brought up completely differently and do not tolerate coercion and violence. In Ukraine, mobilization is based on coercion and violence.
Also an interesting observation. For a long time I could not understand why the huge money that soldiers receive does not return to the country’s economy. Recently, the state admitted and even adopted special legislation to limit gambling, which has become an addiction for many soldiers. Not only do they lose all the money they receive, but they also get into debt. I see one of the reasons is that military service is a one-way ticket from which you most likely will not return. It can be assumed that if there was a rotation, the soldiers saved their families, built housing and were interested in the future, then they would spend this money more profitably. Apparently gambling addiction is a natural psychological reaction to their condition.
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The Ukrainian authorities have submitted to the Council of Europe a statement on withdrawal of derogation from compliance with the European Convention on the Protection of Human Rights and Freedoms.
According to the application, during the war, Ukraine will stop observing such provisions of the Convention as: inviolability of housing; confidentiality of correspondence, telephone conversations and other correspondence; non-interference in personal and family life; freedom of movement and free choice of residence; the right to freedom of thought and speech; free expression of views and beliefs, as well as the right to collect, store and disseminate information; the right to hold meetings, rallies and strikes; the right to own, use and dispose of one's property.
https://rm.coe.int/0900001680af4532
https://www.coe.int/en/web/conventions/by-non-member-states-of-the-coe-or-the-european-union?module=declarations-by-treaty&numSte=005&codeNature=10&codePays=U
https://rm.coe.int/1680af452a
By the way, at one time russia was punished with this. On September 16, 2022 russia officially ceased to be a member of the European Convention on Human Rights. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, welcomed the completion of the procedure for russia's expulsion from the Council of Europe. In his tweet on March 16, he commented on the relevant decision of the Council of Ministers.
"I welcome the decision to immediately exclude russia from the Council of Europe just taken by the Council of Ministers. No place for russia in European bodies as it wages a barbaric war of aggression against Ukraine and commits multiple war crimes." https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1504081546331963398
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Today the weather is great again. During the day it was 24C and the sun was shining. If you walk along the streets of Kyiv, it doesn’t say anything about the war. But there are not many people on the streets and they look tired. However, most of them is constantly filled with news that does not improve your mood at all. Time and time again I am glad that I have a radio and the wonderful ability to switch completely by putting on headphones. At 21 MHz there was a good propagation and one after another I worked VY2RCAF, BX2AK, KW7Q, DP0POL/MM.
On April 30, the Polish government approved the announced draft amendments to the law “On assistance to citizens of Ukraine.” It provides for the extension of temporary protection for Ukrainians fleeing the war until September 30, 2025. https://www.stopcor.org/ukr/section-zarubezhom/news-polskij-uryad-shvaliv-zmini-u-zakonodavstvi-schodo-zahistu-ukraintsiv-yaki-vtekli-vid-vijni-podrobitsi-30-04-2024.html
The Poles have unlocked all checkpoints on the border with Ukraine. https://vechirniy.kyiv.ua/news/97769/
The US Treasury Department allowed operations with russian banks for settlements in the energy sector. We are talking about "VTB", "Centrobank", "Sberbank" and "Alfa Bank". This is stated in the license issued by the American ministry. The license of the Ministry of Finance also mentions the banks "Otkritie", "Sovkombank", "Rosbank", "VEB.RF", "Bank Zenit" and "Bank St. Petersburg". The ban on operations has been lifted until November 1, 2024, but the permit may be extended. https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/932846/download?inline
The russians actively and effectively use the tactics of infiltrating reconnaissance drones in the deep rear of Ukraine, where they hunt for important objects and launch ballistic missiles. This circumstance allowed the russian army to inflict several tangible blows on the Armed Forces and Ukrainian infrastructure dozens of kilometers from the front line. This is possible due to constant modernization, as well as mass production and use of Orlan, Zala and Supercam drones in connection with Iskander missile systems or other long-range systems. And if the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not find means to counter such attacks, then, judging by the trends, these strikes will no longer be a tactical, but a strategic advantage of the russia in the war. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1rvlv593n3o
In the conditions of the growing number of people in need of support, the government is preparing a transition from the post-Soviet model of social protection to an effective social policy. According to him, the government creates incentives for people to return to economic activity and focuses on supporting those who really need it. Source: https://biz.censor.net/n3486501
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The Ukrainian authorities have submitted to the Council of Europe a statement on withdrawal of derogation from compliance with the European Convention on the Protection of Human Rights and Freedoms…
Stunning. They expect the EU to approve their violation of human rights, I doubt that will go well. This hands the anti-Ukraine isolationists another rationale for their views, making further aid from here more difficult.
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Stunning. They expect the EU to approve their violation of human rights, I doubt that will go well. This hands the anti-Ukraine isolationists another rationale for their views, making further aid from here more difficult.
Apparently during war people should not have any rights.
Also, now there is a new procedure for mobilizing vehicles for those who have more than one car. A person learns that his car is subject to mobilization only when it is seized. https://auto.24tv.ua/yak_vyluchatymut_avtomobili_dlia_zsu_opysana_protsedura_n53223
Meanwhile, queues appeared at the mobilization centers. The overwhelming number of those standing in the queues are, after all, conscripts who have reasons for deferment or have reasons for reservations. Judging by the situation over the past few days, the queues have indeed increased, but not of people who are conscripted or volunteer, but who are sent by companies for reservations. Under the current conditions, the mobilization centers will have to register at least 93 men per hour, and it is clear that the centers will not be able to keep up. https://toneto.net/news/kultura/u-ki--vskomu-ttsk-pom--tili-veliku-chergu-z-cholov--k--v-na-onovlennya-danih--v--yskov---nazvali-prichinu--foto----v--deo-u-subotu--4-travnya--nabere-chinnost---zakon-pro-zabezpechennya-prav-v--yskovih-na-sots--alniy-zahist-gittya-stolits--
On May 18, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine will launch an electronic cabinet for conscripts, which will provide an opportunity to update their data without visiting the mobilization center. Now this application is literally being created, and we are receiving all the necessary documents to make it available to all our citizens," said Kateryna Chernogorenko, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine for Digital Development, Digital Transformations and Digitalization. https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/e-kabinet-vijskovozobov-yazanogo-zapratsyuye-18-travnya/
Let me remind you that according to the latest changes to the legislation, from May 18 all men must receive military documents and keep them with them at all times. This will be checked by the police and fines start at $250. Criminal liability and a ban on driving are also provided for.
Apparently, so that people are not so sad, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs created an AI bot that will communicate with people and answer their requests. https://shotam.info/mzs-ukrainy-predstavylo-shi-avatara-viktoriiu-iaka-teper-komentuvatyme-konsulsku-informatsiiu/
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The weather is great outside, but the mood is still bad because of the daily news about explosions in Odesa and other cities and the constant fighting at the front.
I found Macron's interview interesting, which he gave to The Economist, in which he tries to declare France's leadership in Europe and exaggerates its contribution to helping Ukraine. On the other hand, this kind of competition still helps Ukraine, and it seems that his words about the possibility of introducing foreign troops in the event of a request from the Kyiv authorities or a breakthrough by the Russians at the front are quite serious. https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/02/emmanuel-macron-in-his-own-words-english
The Ukraine military intelligence agency’s deputy head, Major-General Vadym Skibitsky sounds troubled as he assesses Ukraine’s battlefield prospects. Things, he says, are as difficult as they have ever been since the early days of russia’s full-scale invasion. And they are about to get worse. He predicts that russia will first press on with its plan to “liberate” all of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a task unchanged since 2022. He says a russian order has gone out to “take something” in time for the pomp of Victory Day in Moscow on May 9th, or, failing that, before pootin’s visit to Beijing a week later. The speed and success of the advance will determine when and where the russians strike next. “Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. They always knew April and May would be a difficult time for us.” The russian army is not the hubristic organisation it was in 2022, says the general, and is now operating as a “single body, with a clear plan, and under a single command”. Looking at a wider horizon, the intelligence chief suggests russia is gearing up for an assault around the Kharkiv and Sumy regions in the north-east. https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/02/ukraine-is-on-the-brink-says-a-senior-general
UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron has said it is up to Ukraine to decide how to use British weapons and insisted it has the right to strike targets on russian territory. During a visit to Kyiv, he said the UK would provide £3bn ($3.75bn) per year for as long as necessary. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c163kp93l6po
In January of this year, the presidents of Switzerland and Ukraine agreed that the founding "peace summit" will be held in Switzerland. Later, the date and place of this event were announced: it will take place on June 15-16 this year at the Bürgenstock resort near Lucerne. It will take place a week after the elections to the European Parliament, and will remove part of the purely political burden from the shoulders of the leaders of the European states. Secondly, it will take place a few days after the "Big Seven" summit, which will take place on June 13-15, very close by, in the Italian Puglia. This circumstance should facilitate logistics for the leaders of the "Seven" countries, primarily US President Joe Biden, whose presence in Bürgenstock will automatically give the "peace summit" the status of global importance. A separate intrigue is connected with the participation in the "Ukrainian summit" of russia's BRICS partners. Of course, invitations will be sent to them, but it is not at all a fact that they will all respond to them, informed interviewees of the BBC already admit today. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c0v0rwwl3dno
"We have to win. We have no alternative. I don't know what that victory will be, I don't know the specific day. I don't know exactly how it will happen... But I know we have no alternative. So we have to win. And we we will win," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week in an interview with Fox News.
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6351647494112
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The Ministry of Defense adopted changes to the regulations on the military medical commission in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which determines suitability for military service in the presence of certain diagnoses.
The requirements for conscripts have been significantly reduced, everyone has to pass commissions anew, and only very seriously ill people are recognized as unfit. For everyone else, there will now be a place in the trench.
People immediately paid attention to such strange provisions as fitted to service in military support units, mobilization centers and higher military training institutions, training centers, educational institutions, medical units, units of logistics, communications, operational support, security those with following diseases:
chronic viral hepatitis with moderate functional disorders
disease caused by HIV with immune subcompensation
lower lip cancer, skin cancer
mild mental symptoms
mental and behavioral disorders due to the use of psychoactive substances
mood disorders (affective) with infrequent attacks and long periods of full clinical health
neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders
mild mental retardation
epilepsy with isolated and rare (convulsive and non-convulsive) epileptic seizures without mental disorders.
These regulations also applies to those who fought during the civil war in 1917-1920s and the Second World War.
The first wave of mobilization under the new law should be more than 100,000 within three months, said Oleksandr Fedienko, member of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence.
From May 18, conscripts must always carry military registration documents with them. Within nine months, men with limited fitness must re-pass the military medical board, and those who evade the draft will be restricted in their right to drive a car.
The main clause of the law on mobilization — demobilization and its terms with the document — was removed at the request of the head of the Commissar Syrskyi. https://kanaldim.tv/novyj-zakon-pro-mobilizacziyu-eksperty-proanalizuvaly-potreby-vijska-ta-imovirnist-demobilizacziyi/
The official website of the President of Ukraine has rejected a petition to lift the ban on arms assistance to the Azov brigade from the US.
"Azov" defended Mariupol in 2022 with limited resources and outdated weapons. This was the result of amendments effective since 2017 in the laws of the United States, which block "the provision of weapons and the provision of training or other assistance to the Azov battalion," the brigade noted. https://myc.news/ua/obshestvo/peticiyu_ob_oruzhii_dlya_azova_otklonili
They believe that the president of Ukraine should deal with this issue, not the United States. I am surprised that they still retain their identity after all the efforts of the authorities to mix volunteers from 2014-2022 with mobilized ones and replace their commanders. Perhaps they can pose the same threat as in the case of Wagner in russia.
From the public part of the Register of Court Decisions, decisions made in cases involving conscripts and military servicemen will be removed - the practice of mobilization will become closed to the public. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/299655-verkhovnaya-rada-namerena-zapretit-publikovat-v-reestre-sudebnye-resheniya-po-mobilizatsii-i-voennomu-uchetu
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"In March, the government attracted a record amount - more than 9 billion dollars. In April, they received another 1.5 billion euros within the Ukraine Facility. In general, since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has already attracted about 12 billion dollars in financial aid," the Prime Minister of Ukraine emphasized.
https://weukraine.tv/ekonomika/ukrajina-u-berezni-zaluchila-rekordnu-sumu-mizhnarodnoji-dopomohi-pro-jaki-hroshi-jdetsja/
The company that owns one of the most popular adult video services, PornHub, has registered as a VAT payer as an electronic service provider in Ukraine.
https://24tv.ua/business/pornhub-legalizuvavsya-ukrayini-servis-dlya-doroslih-splachuvatime_n2547767
I do not understand how this company officially works in Ukraine, where the distribution of pornography is a criminal act.
A wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries deep inside russia has left the Kremlin racing to defend its own territory while still waging war on its neighbor. But the attacks have also achieved the unthinkable — leaving the world’s largest petrostate running low on petrol.
Diesel prices for russian consumers have skyrocketed, rising almost 10 percent in the past week alone, according to the government’s figures. Petrol costs have also hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year as supply tightens and more and more facilities are forced to suspend production.
Last Wednesday, two fuel storage facilities owned by russian energy giant Rosneft, around 500 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, were severely damaged by drones as fuel went up in smoke. More than a dozen refineries across nine russian regions have been similarly hit this year, with officials in Kyiv saying the industry is a legitimate war target.
It's both a political and military problem for Moscow. As well as being essential for Russia's war effort, cheap fuel is a key part of President Vladimir Putin's offer to the public, an antidote to lagging wages and a weak ruble.
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-diesel-prices-skyrocket-ukraine-war-drone-strikes-oil-refineries/
I don't know what it is related to, but fuel prices have also increased in Ukraine.
Oh well. The mutual destruction continues, and the winners are outside Ukraine and russia.
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You can just look at how young people feel about work. They want to earn a lot, work a little, and have their incompetence respected.
So, I feel I'm young. ;D
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So, I feel I'm young. ;D
Good to see you're ok!
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Long time no read from you Eugene! Hope you and family are well.
73
Jaye
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Today Ukraine celebrates Easter. My wife baked Easter cakes, but I can only look at them.
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Every day the air alarm sounds, but the missiles hit mainly Kharkiv, Odesa and other cities. Apparently the russians decided not to waste missiles on Kyiv, where there are nothing important. Neither military or energy objects.
The Ukrainian military says dozens of North Korean missiles have been fired by russia into its territory. This then raises the question of how many of these missiles the North Koreans can produce. The South Korean government recently observed North Korea has sent 6,700 containers of munitions to russia. More troubling still is that the war is providing North Korea with a shop window to the rest of the world. Now that Pyongyang is mass producing these weapons, it will want to sell them to more countries, and if the missiles are good enough for russia, they will be good enough for others, - especially as the russians are setting the example that it is okay to violate sanctions. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68933778
Their plan to attack in the east is obvious, where every day they destroy fortifications with aerial bombs and then occupy territories with infantry. This does not happen very quickly, but continuously. However, yesterday Ukrainian troops managed to shoot down one russian plane, which pilot lost his caution and flew too far. https://hromadske.radio/news/2024/05/04/zsu-zbyly-rosiyskyy-litak-su-25-na-donechchyni
I'm not sure how true this information is, but according to Stephen Bryen (served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee) article, France has sent its first troops officially to Ukraine. They have been deployed in support of the Ukrainian 54th Independent Mechanized Brigade in Slavyansk. The French soldiers are drawn from France’s 3rd Infantry Regiment, which is one of the main elements of France’s Foreign Legion (Légion étrangère). https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/france-sends-combat-troops-to-ukraine-battlefront/
Together with Cameroon's announcement of permission to use British weapons on russian territory, this could mean a transition to a new level in this war.
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The National Bank of Ukraine is implementing the largest package of easing currency restrictions for businesses since the beginning of the full-scale war. The purpose of these changes is to improve the conditions for conducting business activities in Ukraine and the entry of domestic businesses into new markets, as well as to support the recovery of the economy and promote the inflow of new investments into the country.
First, all currency restrictions for the import of works and services are abolished. Secondly, the possibility of business to repatriate "new" dividends is ensured. Thirdly, it is possible to transfer funds abroad under leasing / rental. Fourthly, restrictions on repayment of "new" external loans are eased. Fifthly, it is possible to repay interest on "old" external loans. Sixth, restrictions on the transfer of foreign currency from representative offices to the benefit of their parent companies are eased. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/valyutna-liberalizatsiya-trivaye-nbu-vprovadjuye-naybilshiy-paket-pomyakshennya-valyutnih-obmejen-z-pochatku-povnomasshtabnoyi-viyni
It is obvious that this is the result of the pressure of foreign business, which set the conditions for the continuation of work in Ukraine. Also, people say that there are no problems with reservation employees of foreign companies, while Ukrainian companies lose employees due to mobilization.
Also, "mobilization" is used to counter advocacy activities. If all judges and prosecutors are protected by law from mobilization, then the lawyer can be forcibly sent to the mobilization center directly from the search for which he came to defend the client. On May 3, 2024, the Odesa Oblast Bar Council became aware of the forcible illegal detention of a lawyer during his practice as a lawyer. https://www.facebook.com/unba.odessa/posts/pfbid0qSzwCGpX4Zv7BLwR69gcqQWAcAT7qqVfyupG5EyzTK9dHDQ4agbAZ128X2VCRwPdl
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You can just look at how young people feel about work. They want to earn a lot, work a little, and have their incompetence respected.
So, I feel I'm young. ;D
;D ;D
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The weather changed dramatically again. It got colder and there was heavy rain and thunderstorms. Ukrainians have a special attitude towards thunder. What sounds like explosions is not exciting.
One of the most relevant topics for those who are not in the army is the question of how not to get into it.
Absentee fines for violations of military accounting rules and legislation on mobilization will become possible after the adoption of amendments to the Code of Ukraine on administrative offenses proposed by the Cabinet of Ministers. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/299830-verkhovnaya-rada-legalizuet-zaochnye-shtrafy-dlya-muzhchin-kotorye-ne-stali-na-voennyy-uchet-ili-ne-yavilis-po-povestke
In this way, the officials of the mobilization centers will be able to impose fines and, with the involvement of the executive service, block bank accounts and seize property without the need to notify violators or their participation in the case. The possibility of appealing their actions in courts seems doubtful.
So far, all these attempts by the authorities to strengthen punitive measures lead to the fact that men are deprived of property, selling or re-registering real estate and cars to women.
Also, almost every day there are reports about the deaths of mobilized people from heart attacks or epilepsy during their forced delivery to mobilization centers.
https://www.facebook.com/dniprootcksp/posts/pfbid02qHVsj8BGP6ePbkU3PLJbqjDmT5sLNufm5JjZrDz7v6UKSLfNS6KVBt8ocms6J1Tvl
But the daughter of one of those who died in the mobilization center said that her father did not have epilepsy, but that he died as a result of being beaten by the workers of the mobilization center.
https://hromadske.ua/suspilstvo/223573-u-ttsk-na-dnipropetrovshchyni-pomer-cholovik-nibyto-vid-napadu-epilepsiyi-odnak-rodychi-kazut-shcho-yoho-byly
Also there are reports about those who died while trying to cross the Tisza River on the border with Romania in order to leave Ukraine.
https://t.me/VGlagola/11620
Metropolitan of Pereyaslav and Vishnevsky Orthodox Church of Ukraine Oleksandr (Drabinko) answered the question about being a draft dodger, is there a sinful component here? Does the church not consider this question?
- I cannot answer for the church. Here, of course, it would be worthwhile for the theological and ethical commission to consider this issue. It should give an unequivocal answer. Although I don't think there is an unequivocal answer to this question.
We live in our state, we must protect it, but the state must also protect our constitutional rights, duties and interests. Unfortunately, we have Ukraine as our native mother, we have a land that we love, but the state as an institution very often does not fulfill its constitutional duties to its citizens.
Sometimes through this prism you can understand the dodgers, but it is the duty of every citizen of Ukraine to protect both his family and his (I will not say the state) native land.
The state is an institution that political clans or oligarchic personalities very often use in their own interests. Therefore, it is necessary to protect the country as a territory and as mother Ukraine, but as an institution and someone's personal interests, who do not want to protect them themselves, but send others there - this is a very difficult issue.
https://df.news/2024/04/30/pytannia-vyznannia-ptsu-na-70-80-zalezhyt-vid-zavershennia-vijny-mytropolyt-ptsu-oleksandr/
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The member states of the European Union whose representatives will be present at the inauguration of Russian President Vladimir pootin on May 7 have become known.
Radio Svoboda received the corresponding list:
France; Hungary; Slovakia; Greece; Malta; Cyprus.
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-inavhuratsiya-putina-uchast-yes/32936115.html
Ukraine sees no legal grounds for recognizing pootin as the democratically elected and legitimate president of russia. This is the official position of our state regarding the inauguration of the russian dictator expressed in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
https://24tv.ua/ukrayina-ne-viznaye-putina-prezidentom-rosiyi-mzs-zvernulosya_n2549796
The head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, said that russia is conducting an operation called Maidan-3. The enemy is trying to question Zelensky's legitimacy as the President of Ukraine after May 20, when, according to the Constitution, his term of office expires. https://lb.ua/society/2024/02/25/600312_budanov_rf_provodit_spetsoperatsiyu.html
russian President Vladimir pootin has ordered training of russia's non-strategic nuclear forces to prepare them for combat missions. The russian Ministry of Defense also added that the decision was made "in response to provocative statements and threats by certain Western officials against the russian Federation." https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4n1ln64619o?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
The Chinese leader expects that his visits to France, Serbia and Hungary will deepen the differences in the Western bloc, writes the Le Figaro. https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/sous-pression-des-etats-unis-xi-jinping-en-tournee-pour-neutraliser-l-europe-20240505
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in France on Sunday, May 5. This is his first visit to Europe in five years, which takes place against the background of the war in Ukraine and tensions in trade relations with the EU.
The route of the Chinese leader actually reflects strained relations with Europe oriented towards the Atlantic alliance, as well as China's desire to stop the American "encirclement", playing on divisions between European countries.
After meeting the French leader on Monday, Xi will fly to Serbia on May 7, the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy.
Xi Jinping will end his tour with a two-day visit to Hungary, where he will meet with the great critic of Brussels, Viktor Orbán, who will take the presidency of the EU on July 1.
This clear turn to the east, bypassing the big capitals, marks the cooling of Sino-European relations.
The EU has said neutral countries can opt out of its plan to use the profits of Russia’s frozen assets to buy weapons for Ukraine, six EU diplomats told POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ammunition-war-in-ukraine-frozen-russian-assets/
The proposal comes ahead of a meeting of the EU's 27 envoys on Wednesday, in which the Belgian Council presidency hopes to strike a deal to unlock funding for Ukraine.
Capitals that oppose military aid to Kyiv can limit themselves to providing humanitarian assistance to the war-torn country, according to a new text circulated by the presidency on Friday.
This is a last-ditch attempt to win over EU countries that are not part of NATO — such as Austria, Malta, Cyprus and Ireland — and who demanded an exemption from buying ammunition. Other vocal critics of the EU's military strategy in Ukraine, such as Hungary and Slovakia, also support this caveat.
EU countries that are also members of the G7 — Germany, France and Italy — are the least enthusiastic about this proposal due to the legal and financial risks, said an EU diplomat who was granted anonymity to speak freely. It is feared that these capitals will not support the deal on Wednesday.
In the UK, they announced that a Ministry of Defense database containing personal data of military personnel had been hacked.
The government does not directly name the country involved in the hack, but according to Sky News, it is China. Hackers attacked the payroll systems of active military personnel and some veterans. Mostly names and bank details were revealed. https://news.sky.com/story/china-hacked-ministry-of-defence-sky-news-learns-13130757#:~:text=MPs%20will%20be%20told%20of,later%20today%2C%20targeting%20service%20personnel.&text=The%20Chinese%20state%20has%20hacked,the%20MoD%2C%20targeting%20service%20personnel.
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During the massive combined attack on Ukraine on the night of Wednesday, May 8, russian terrorists used 76 means of air attack - 55 missiles and 21 attack drones (UAVs).
As reported by the command of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it was possible to destroy 59 air targets - 39 missiles and 20 drones.
In particular, air defense (air defense) shot down:
33 out of 45 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles;
all four Kalibr cruise missiles;
both Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air missiles;
20 of 21 BpLA Shahed.
Accordingly, it was not possible to destroy:
12 winged X-101/X-555;
two "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles;
one aeroballistic X-47M2 "Dagger";
one winged "Iskander-K";
one "shahed".
https://www.dw.com/uk/masovanij-udar-ppo-znisila-59-z-76-rosijskih-cilej/a-69022512?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
To me it looked like one powerful explosion nearby and several far away. Not the best way to wake up at 5am, but it was to be expected. In this way, the racists decided to congratulate Ukrainians on the anniversary of the victory over fascism 79 years ago.
As a result of this attack on the energy infrastructure in the Lviv, Vinnytsia, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhya, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions, generation facilities were damaged. Also, russian drones damaged the equipment of one of the facilities of "Ukrenergo" in the central region. Currently, consumers in this region are fed by backup connections. At the moment, the State Emergency Service is working on the damaged objects, and emergency restoration work is ongoing. The energy company warned that tonight from 18:00 to 23:00 there may be restrictions on household and industrial consumers throughout Ukraine.
https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/05/08/novyna/suspilstvo/ukrenerho-poperedzhaye-pro-mozhlyvi-vidklyuchennya-svitla-vvecheri-po-vsij-krayini
Last year, the russians were ridiculed for sending convicts to the front, and today the Ukrainian parliament adopted a law that allows the mobilization of convicts, excluding deputies, some of the top corrupt and those guilty of serious crimes, for example murders, rapes. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/rada-pidtrimala-zakonoproekt-mobilizatsiyu-1715168759.html
Unlike the rest of Ukrainians, the mobilization of convicts requires their consent.
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The consent of convicts is required?! Apparently irony is not understood in the government.
Putin is attempting to convert Russian society and industry into a military entity. His primary goal as always must be his self preservation, so no doubt he feels it is safer for him, besides the obvious of reinvigorating the military to continue the disastrous Ukraine invasion. (How successful this is, beyond making more missiles and drones, isn’t clear to me.)
He, like most dictators, must do something large and militaristic to show he’s still the strong man to distract the very obvious failures of his invasion, the worst being not being able to defeat Ukraine and directly causing a huge expansion of NATO, much of it on Russia’s border. He lacks the capacity to attack any other country at the moment, so apparently this is the next best thing.
He will use this to further his goal of a neo-Russian Empire by threatening Europe, and perhaps in a few years try other military adventures in non-NATO Europe, and of course as a showpiece for his massive domestic and external propaganda machine.
It will have the opposite effect within the NATO countries (with one or two exceptions such as Hungary) which he is surely aware of. As I had hoped, the extremists in the Republican Party are now in retreat, which if it lasts, will be a return to historical norms and allows Congress to once again function at some level. Perhaps he simply ignores all of this, or feels he has no choice but to continue down the path.
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Hi Bob,
I agree with much of what you stated. My only additional thoughts are these:
We (the USA) also used convicts in our military. I served with half dozen who were offered prison OR military. In my company, ALL of them passed the riggers of basic training and I think they actually thrived. It was the first time they had enforced discipline and rewards for hard work. I don't know if this still happens today, but back in the 1980's, it was a thing.
putin dug his hole and now his only option is to continue digging it. His goal is to build/hold a his populace stance. Thinking russians know what is happening and the blind followers will obviously follow until the fragile system ultimately reaches its collapse.
With renewed commitments by the European countries, and including the USA. The pressure has been added.
So I will continue to worry about my Ukrainian friend's well being. Praying they will see the light of freedom and peace--soon.
73
Jaye
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Hi Jaye.
I think every day about the plight of our friends in Ukraine and hope they are safe. Hopefully the additional air defense and other badly needed materiel will arrive and be deployed soon, and continue to be sent. It should, so as long as the dictator loving extremists are not in power nor throwing wrenches into legislative processes.
Interesting that you worked with convicted (presumably young) men in the military. It’s sounds like their choice of military service had the intended effect of rehabilitation, rather than sitting in prison which can have the opposite effect. Too bad that isn’t practical to do with more criminals.
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Thank you Jaye and Bob!
Today I slept very poorly because it constantly seemed to me that something was exploding. Maybe it was a noise on the street, or maybe it was a dream.
In the process of preparing for the webinar, I realized that I had collected a lot of material and it turned out to be a full-fledged article. Therefore, I have modified the text a little more and will be able to use it twice.
Every day there is an air raid warning, but today missiles hit other places and everything is calm in Kyiv. Every day there is information that the Russians have advanced a little more in the east.
It is also reported that the russian military aviation has lost another SU-25 aircraft, dozens of armored vehicles and more than a thousand soldiers.
The most important news of the day is that the former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny was finally released from military service and appointed Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
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The weather is great today, but something is pulsating in my head. I hope this is because of the magnetic storm that is raging these days. Probably because of it, I also did not hear Colin G3ZAF again on any band available to me.
However, I have completed an article on the bankruptcy procedure in the USA and am ready to record a webinar. At this point, I will consider my obligation to the National Bar Association of Ukraine fulfilled.
At five in the morning, after a long period of artillery and air bombardment, the russians launched an attack in the Kharkov area in the east. The Ukrainian military denies information about the capture of several villages, but new gray zones have appeared on the Deepstate map. https://deepstatemap.live/#11/50.3168/36.6064
Shelling of Kharkov itself is also reported.
https://war.gordonua.com/ukr/minoboroni-ukrajini-o-5-ranku-vidbulasja-sproba-prorivu-protivnikom-nashoji-liniji-oboroni-1706679.html
https://flot2017.com/udar-po-kharkovu-poshkodzheni-budynky-ie-postrazhdali/
The US Army is getting new ‘Iron Fist’ technology – thanks to Ukraine war aid. The more money spent on helping Kyiv, the faster US forces will be re-equipped with better kit.
One thing many critics of US aid to Ukraine don’t seem to understand is that most of the money actually gets spent in the United States, very often on improved equipment for our own armed forces. For example, some Ukraine aid is being spent getting the latest Iron Fist “active defence” equipment into the US Army’s own armoured vehicle fleets much faster than it would otherwise arrive.
This is happening because the United States typically supports Ukraine by donating older weapons from existing US stocks, and then using the authorized “Ukraine aid” funds to re-equip US troops with newer weapons to replace those older weapons they just gave away.
Quite literally, the roughly $140 billion the United States is spending on Ukraine through the war’s first three years is actually funding a major modernization drive for the US military. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/09/us-army-ukraine-war-aid-iron-fist-aps-m2-bradley-armour/
The Minister of Economic Cooperation of Germany, Svenja Schulze, spent 16 hours getting to Kyiv to meet with the Deputy Prime Minister for the Reconstruction of Ukraine - the Minister of Community Development, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine Oleksandr Kubrakov, but he was released on the day of the German official's arrival on May 9. This was reported by Welt. It is emphasized that during the negotiations, Schultze was supposed to discuss the development of the Ukrainian energy network, German aid, as well as the preparation of the conference on the restoration of Ukraine, scheduled for June 11-12 in Berlin. As Welt noted, such an important conference for Ukraine was to be prepared by Schultze and Kubrakov. The German minister emphasized that she considers his resignation "very, very sad", as they promoted many projects together. https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article251444748/Svenja-Schulze-SPD-Als-die-Ministerin-in-Kiew-ankommt-ist-ihr-Gespraechspartner-gefeuert-worden.html
The head of the Ministry of Justice noted that he supports the decision of the Ukrainian parliament to allow the mobilization of citizens who incarcerated in prisons. Denys Malyuska does not hide that his department will also benefit from this, since penitentiary institutions in Ukraine are overcrowded. https://top.today.ua/ministr-yustitsiyi-nazvav-kilkist-dostupnih-dlya-mobilizatsiyi-zasudzhenih/
No one is surprised anymore by cases of death or hospitalization of sick people who are forcibly mobilized regardless of their condition. https://tsn.ua/exclusive/na-sumschini-55-richniy-cholovik-pislya-vizitu-do-tck-opinivsya-u-reanimaciyi-scho-vidomo-2576114.html
Confused and contradictory changes to the legislation with huge fines led to the fact that people generally avoid meeting with mobilization centers, so the hunting of people by joint squads of representatives of the centers and the police reached a new level.
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Yes, most of the Ukraine aid money is indeed spent here in the US for new build weapons and replacements, just as you said. I’ve had to explain this to a couple of very conservative friends. I’m not sure they entirely believed it because their preferred news sources don’t explain this. It’s better for ratings to let the audience be angry, assuming that their tax money is sent directly to Ukraine to be wasted in corruption schemes, some including the Bidens, and other such stories.
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With a surprise cross-border attack, russia ruthlessly exposes Ukraine’s weaknesse.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/11/europe/ukraine-kharkiv-russia-attack-intl/index.html
Nothing unexpected. Everything is very expected.
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How much of the delays in aid and in mobilization are the result of Russian propaganda? Quite a lot I think. This was a month ago, but extremely noteworthy:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-rep-mike-turner-russian-propaganda-uttered-house-floor-rcna146760
Of course it’s in the body politic as well, especially on the right, which their representatives must take into account to keep their jobs.
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How much of the delays in aid and in mobilization are the result of Russian propaganda? Quite a lot I think. This was a month ago, but extremely noteworthy:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-rep-mike-turner-russian-propaganda-uttered-house-floor-rcna146760
Of course it’s in the body politic as well, especially on the right, which their representatives must take into account to keep their jobs.
I don't think that congressmen are stupid people and believe in propaganda. The fact that they support it says something else. At the same time, I ask - what can Ukraine offer the world that will be more important than what russia offers? Politicians are very mercantile people and support whoever pays them the most. At the same time, I am seeing more and more comments from ordinary people who ask their politicians whether all the problems have been solved in their countries, that they are spending money on Ukraine? And they all have reasons to act and think this way.
After I started Zoom calls with Colin and my Ukrainian friend who is learning English, I decided to do the same with my son. Today the three of us spoke in English for two hours and Colin was surprised at my son’s level of English. Apart from minor mistakes sometimes, he speaks completely fluently and we discussed many issues in English without any problems. That is, in addition to Polish, he also learned English only through classes at school and university. This says a lot about the level of education in Poland and the difference with the situation in Ukraine.
Poland has pledged to assist Ukraine in repatriating men subject to military conscription, following Kyiv's announcement of a new mobilization law set to take effect on May 18. Beyond ethical considerations, the move could have a significant knock-on effect on the Polish economy as thousands of Ukrainian citizens residing in the country might be forced to leave their jobs and join the army. Additionally, there are mounting concerns that a sizable number of them will seek to leave Poland to avoid draft. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lidiakurasinska/2024/05/11/polands-pledge-to-repatriate-conscription-age-men-to-ukraine-could-have-economic-costs/?sh=1bb4a02e1e2a
This suggests that everyone needs Ukrainians, but different countries can offer different conditions.
From 2022, experts of the Center for Economic Strategy studied the state and mood of Ukrainian refugees and the impact of their non-return on Ukraine's economy. As of the end of January 2024, 4.9 million Ukrainians are abroad due to the war. The vast majority of refugees are women (the largest share is women aged 35-44 - 13%) and children. As of January 2024, the largest share of Ukrainian refugees in Europe is in Germany (30%) and Poland (22%). Outside of European countries, the largest countries in terms of the number of Ukrainians accepted since the beginning of the full-scale invasion are the USA (280 thousand people), Great Britain (253.2 thousand) and Canada (210.2 thousand).
The future of the status of temporary protection: the most optimal scenario is to grant Ukrainians freedom of movement and choice of place of residence, similar to EU citizens. According to various scenarios, 1.4 million to 2.3 million Ukrainians may remain outside Ukraine.
But unfortunately, even the end of the war does not mean the end of migration. CES analysts investigated how many more Ukrainians can go abroad after the end of the war and the lifting of the ban on men going abroad. Only those who already have family members abroad and may want to leave to reunite with them outside of Ukraine were considered. In particular, we are talking about men who are currently in Ukraine and do not have the right to leave the country due to travel restrictions, but their wives are abroad. According to the Central Central Committee's calculations, an additional 87.6 thousand Ukrainians can go abroad under the optimistic scenario, 115 thousand - under the average scenario, and 154.9 thousand under the pessimistic scenario. https://ces.org.ua/ukrainian_refugees_third_wave_research/
According to UN analysts, after the start of the full-scale invasion, many Ukrainian refugees lost a large part of their income, but in two years the situation has improved significantly: more than half of the Ukrainian refugees in Europe have higher incomes than before the start of the full-scale war. As of May 2023, the share of people who did not have enough food or clothing decreased by 10 percentage points, while the share of those whose income is sufficient to not deny themselves anything increased by almost three times. The increase in wealth among Ukrainian refugees is explained by both social benefits and increased participation in the labor market. In half a year, the share of those who report that they have a job or are engaged in business has increased from 39% in May 2023 to 45% in January 2024.
Among employed Ukrainian citizens abroad, 61% report earning more than before the full-scale invasion. For example, in Ukraine the minimum wage is 200 dollars, in Germany it is 10 times higher. But the prices of products, goods, and services in Germany are 1.5-2 times higher, not 10. We like to discuss sky-high housing prices in Europe, but here too, things are not so simple. A study in December 2023 showed that in Kyiv, people spend 78% of the average income in Kyiv on housing rent. There is no such thing as giving away four-fifths of the income just for a roof over your head anywhere in Europe. Therefore, there is no need to talk about worse living conditions. Those who work and have a minimum or average salary in Europe have better living conditions than those who work, respectively, for a minimum or average salary in Ukraine."
https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine
In Ukraine the government is going to raise taxes. https://enovosty.com/uk/ekonomika-ukr/full/1105-ukraincyam-rizko-pereraxuyut-osnovni-podatki-chogo-ochikuvati
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Yesterday Sergiy came to see me and we walked around a little. I suggested we go to a small store to buy some food. The cashier looked at me cautiously and asked if I was sure I wanted to buy a pack of sausages, noting that they cost $3/lb. When we left the store, Sergiy started laughing at me, saying that apparently I looked so bad that the cashier wasn’t sure if I had the money for such an expensive purchase. I objected that I looked the same as the rest of the residents of my poor area, and apparently she had already encountered the fact that people left the products after knowing its price.
The air raid warning ended today with another strike on Kharkiv. https://tsn.ua/ato/u-harkovi-prolunav-vibuh-zmi-2577356.html
The russian attack near Kharkiv develops and has several goals - to divert troops from other places and attack there, break through the defenses if successful and surround Kharkiv, approach it another 10 kilometers and be able to bombard it with artillery. All options are bad for Kharkiv and Ukraine, and the authorities have already found the culprits - the commanders and units who retreated. But I would advise trying to sit in trenches under an aerial bombardment, because the fortifications were never built...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo
russia is blaming a Ukrainian strike after an entire section of an apartment block collapsed following an explosion in Belgorod. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68998913
The russians blame Ukraine, but this looks like another russian glide bomb that missed its target, which happens from time to time in that place.
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I don't think that congressmen are stupid people and believe in propaganda. The fact that they support it says something else. At the same time, I ask - what can Ukraine offer the world that will be more important than what russia offers? Politicians are very mercantile people and support whoever pays them the most. At the same time, I am seeing more and more comments from ordinary people who ask their politicians whether all the problems have been solved in their countries, that they are spending money on Ukraine? And they all have reasons to act and think this way.
What do you think the “something else” is?
You probably aren’t familiar with some of our representatives who are demonstrably as dense as a brick and probably believe much of what they say. Unfortunately one of them hails from my state.
Most however will simply do whatever they need to in order to be re-elected. If the majority of party primary voters in their district think the world is flat, then they will echo that. Never underestimate the lack of knowledge, the naivety and the stupidity of large parts of the electorate, especially when they’ve been fed propaganda.
As for those wondering why we spend money on Ukraine, it’s a fair question. Our leaders in all positions need to do a much better job of explaining the consequences of Russia winning and how that would affect the world and our security.
But for many that’s too esoteric. Few could find Ukraine or even Russia on a map, and something that might happen over years isn’t a concern. Then there are “news” media and social media sewers that, like the representatives, are happy to make billions telling their audience that yes, the world is indeed flat, and please buy the products shown in the next advertisement.
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What do you think the “something else” is?
Knowing how much russian money and agents there are in Europe, I see no reason to think that the situation in the USA is radically different. The fact that stories like Menendez’s can be called an exception only shows how well the russians organized all this and how helpless those who are supposed to resist it are.
It is very difficult to distinguish between the responsibilities of politicians and the people who elect them, but it is fair to expect that everyone will mind their own business. People delegate power, and those elected must work in the interests of the people. A worker or a waitress should not understand and be able to calculate the consequences of certain actions of their state, but this is the direct responsibility of the authorities. The people are directly responsible for choosing “managers,” and "managers" are responsible for the prosperity of the “company” and its “shareholders.” I have never heard of populism or unprofessional CEO leading a company to success.
I read an interview with Victoria Nuland, in which she, among other things, talked about Ukraine. "I believe, and where Putin is stymied enough to go to the negotiating table from a position of strength. It’ll be up to the Ukrainian people what their territorial ambitions should be. But there are certain things that are existential. Any deal that they cut in their interest and in the larger global interest has to be a deal that Putin is compelled to stick to. We can’t be doing this every six months, every three years. It has to actually lead to a deal that includes Russian withdrawal. Putin is a master at what we call rope-a-dope negotiating, where he never actually cuts the deal. It has to be a deal that ensures that whatever is decided on Crimea, it can’t be remilitarized such that it’s a dagger at the heart of the center of Ukraine." https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/05/11/victoria-nuland-state-department-diplomat-interview-00157408
It is interesting that she categorically talks about a deal with pootin, although the Ukrainian authorities completely deny the possibility of any negotiations and deals with russia and pootin.
The countries of the "Big Seven" (G7: USA, Japan, Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy and Canada) have taken up the problem of corruption in Ukraine, which already carries three serious risks for our country. The issue of Ukrainian corruption became one of the key topics discussed at the two-day meeting of G7 justice ministers on May 9-10. At the same time, the Minister of Justice of Germany, Marko Buschmann, directly called corruption a "triple problem of Ukraine", Tagesschau reports. So: firstly, according to Bushman, every euro that "flows out" through corruption schemes instead of financing the armed forces weakens Ukraine in terms of fighting against russian aggression; secondly, "the fight against a high level of corruption" is a necessary step for Ukraine on its way to EU membership, Bushman said; thirdly, corruption can harm the post-war future of Ukraine, he is sure.
"The issue of corruption is a triple problem for Ukraine... If Ukraine wants to go on the path of membership, it must fight the high level of corruption," Bushman said on the first day of the meeting in Venice. He emphasized that foreign aid will be needed to restore the country. But potential donor countries will not want to help if they know that a significant part of the aid will be consumed by corruption.
https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-ukraine-donnerstag-340.html
In Poland, negotiations with Ukraine regarding the protests of Polish farmers on the Ukrainian-Polish border have been suspended due to suspicion of corruption against the former Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Mykola Solsky and his deputy Markiyan Dmytrasevich. Solskyi is accused of illegally taking possession of land in Sumy Oblast. Polish Deputy Minister of Agriculture Michal Kolodziejczak said this in an interview with Dziennik Gazeta Prawna. https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/kraj/artykuly/9505618,kolodziejczak-ja-nie-protestowalem-zeby-sie-promowac-wywiad.html
"It is obvious that we will not negotiate with people who are accused of corruption," Kolodziejczak emphasized. In addition, he added that despite the fact that the protests of Polish farmers are almost over, the issue of corruption in the Ukrainian department should be clarified.
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The head of the National Bar Association of Ukraine, Lidia Izovitova, appealed to the Minister of Defense Rustem Umyerov and the Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets in connection with numerous violations by the employees of the mobilization centers of the rights and guarantees of advocacy during the professional protection of citizens of Ukraine. These are the facts of interference in activities, violence against defense lawyers, illegal deprivation of liberty, confiscation of personal belongings, including those containing lawyer's secrets - actions that directly hinder the lawyer's activity and violate human rights to protection and obtaining legal aid. https://unba.org.ua/news/9118-tisk-na-advokativ-pokaznik-porushennya-prav-lyudini-v-ukraini-naau.html
And then I saw a lecture on legal nihilism from the deputy who makes the laws, and I understood that further degradation of the state is no longer possible. https://news.telegraf.com.ua/ukr/ukraina/2024-05-13/5851484-intervyu-z-fedienko
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"There is no such thing as giving away four-fifths of the income just for a roof over your head anywhere in Europe."
I'm glad folks in Europe have better living conditions. Here in my county, it is common that rent is more than a person earns for the month which means you have to have room mates to share the toxic rents being charged. What is the worse, in my opinion, is that this land is where all the wood came from to build houses in California :(
"I don't think that congressmen are stupid people and believe in propaganda."
Our politics have become nightmarish over the last decade and a half. Yes, there are representatives who believe the damnedest things!
I listen to many viewpoints trying to find deeper meanings and common cause/remedy. One day I listened to speaker who was talking about the russian invasion and over the course of an hour, it was as if russia had placed him before this audience. A couple days later, I listened as a representative parroted the same misinformation, much of it word for word.
Wlad, I'm glad you got to see and talk with your son! I'm impressed by your pride in his educational work. Knowing many languages actually makes it easier for him in so many ways. Just contemplating this brings joy to me.
The solar events have all but eliminated much of amateur radio over the last 4 days. But this morning, I was able to have a regular QSO with my friends on the other side of the mountain on 75m at 7:30 local. Tonight, we'll have an emergency net on 75m SSB, then I will run an emergency digital net on 80m. This will be at 18:30 - 19:15 local time. I think digital will work despite the harsh band, but the SSB net will be a challenge!
Last night, 75m perked up well. By 21:00 local, I was hearing stations up to 600 miles (950km.) I'll host our night net tonight and hope the band will continue to improve.
Obipuss just jumped on my lap, I think he's also wishing you well :)
73
Jaye
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In the US, rent is highly dependent on the part of the country that one lives in, specifically what the average income is where one lives. For instance if one lives near Silicon Valley, rent is going to be unaffordable because there are lots of tech billionaires and venture capital firms. Here in Ohio, rents are much more reasonable in most places, but that's because incomes are moderate. I make a good income but I couldn't (and shouldn't) expect to be able to live in SF or other super-high-income areas, since I'm not in the super-high-income class. IF I tried to live in SF despite my moderate income, of course I would be spending more than 80% of my income on rent. So, I don't live there.
This video does a pretty good job of explaining why housing has gotten more and more unaffordable in the US, over time. But it's a complex issue and can't be boiled down to the sound bites that politicians like to deal in: https://youtu.be/OtJD45cTV9c?si=YhrwZjTbCABKk-6I
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Excellent points and video, Brady! The private enterprise of people will solve most of the problem if not hobbled. I’ve long been frustrated with the typical zoning laws and NIMBYs that are a very large part of the problem (and have secondary effects like forcing unnecessary automobile use, and increased crime in commercial areas devoid of housing and therefore people to look out for the neighborhood.)
Around here it’s beginning by allowing small “mother in law” or “granny” homes to be built, or manufactured homes placed, on existing single family housing lots. One such manufactured tiny home was added to the property of a house in our neighborhood for a relative of the owners.
Another that was just signed into law in Colorado overrides the arbitrary limits in local zoning codes on how many unrelated people may live in one house. Limits for legitimate health and safety reasons are still allowed.
There is a role for government, as the video mentioned, perhaps in backing private loans for situations not served by the current home mortgage banking system even with its government backing.
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Thanks for the information, it’s always interesting to compare the situation in different countries, although we must admit that the cost of housing in itself means nothing without taking into account all other factors.
Braden, I sent the video to my son. He should be interested, considering that urban planning is his profession.
In Ukraine, I can’t shake the feeling of the unreality of what’s happening. The russian offensive showed that the fortifications were insufficient and the threat was quite serious. https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1790414765531054347
At the same time, graduates of Kharkiv schools dance the waltz, demonstrating fearlessness. https://twitter.com/InUKRofficial/status/1787097914961219592
Well, if the waltz compensates for the lack of fortifications, I will be only happy. So far, there is new destruction every day in Kharkiv.
Ukraine’s military is confronting a “critical” situation in the country’s northeast, facing troop shortages as it tries to repel a russian offensive that has been advancing for several days, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said on Monday. russian troops surged across the border last week to open a new line of attack near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city after Kyiv, capturing at least nine settlements and villages and forcing thousands of civilians to flee. General Budanov assessed that Ukrainian forces would be able to shore up their lines and stabilize the front within the next few days. But he expects russia to launch a new attack further north of Kharkiv, in the Sumy region. https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-kharkiv.html
Blinken is also having fun in a bar https://www.bbc.com/news/world-69013071 while 40 percent of Ukrainians are in need of humanitarian aid, according to a UN report https://unric.org/en/two-years-of-war-in-ukraine-about-40-of-the-ukrainian-population-will-need-humanitarian-aid-by-2024/#:~:text=The%20need%20for%20urgent%20help%20persists.&text=Two%20years%20after%20the%20invasion,assisted%2011%20million%20people%20nationwide.
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All this once again emphasizes how different the situation looks for different people. The new legislation recognizes the majority of men 18-60 as healthy by default, unless they prove otherwise, possibly while already in the army. They are outlawed and now it depends only on the officials of the mobilization centers whether they will be arrested, deprived of property or sent to the army. Many people have not understood for a long time why they have to fight, seeing as how the authorities, behind the back of the police, who are exempt from military service, continue to rob and destroy the country. I'm not sure that the economy will withstand the transition of even more people into the shadows. Businesses are already experiencing a critical shortage of personnel, and energy companies are experiencing a critical shortage of personnel capable of repairing and maintaining damaged networks. Yesterday there were emergency power outages in Kyiv and throughout the country. On the other hand, we see the existence of Syria. People get used to everything, and the authorities that remain in power must be recognized as successful in this. The positive thing about all this is that the Ukrainian authorities will be able to provide supplies of cannon fodder for some time, extending their rule. Unless, of course, another uprising occurs.
The number of views on the video discussing ways to renounce Ukrainian citizenship is indicative https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZi0NQ5iam0 - 263к
Meanwhile, in russia, pootin has made personnel changes that indicate a readiness to continue the war of attrition. https://www.facebook.com/protydiyadezinformatsiyi.cpd/posts/pfbid02WXSdCJ9fS1FJTqogeRbeNLXd395T5M7Ybh8iqS1pgsKQJWSVF4p2ybc53MPPu2b6l
A breakthrough in russia's war in Ukraine will not be achieved at the peace summit to be held in Switzerland in June, voiced this opinion German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. According to him, the conference in Bürgenstock in the best case will lead to direct negotiations between Ukraine and the russian federation. Nobody should have "excessive expectations", the head of the German government believes. "We are not negotiating the end of the war," he said. The summit will also discuss the safety of nuclear power plants in Ukraine during the war, grain export, prisoner exchange and the prohibition of nuclear weapons, the chancellor said, wrote DW. https://www.dw.com/ru/solc-prizval-ne-svazyvat-crezmernye-nadezdy-s-sammitom-mira/a-69072747
At the beginning of May, a series of visits by China's Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui to the countries of the so-called Global South took place. The Chinese diplomat, who is engaged in settling the situation surrounding russia's war against Ukraine, this time visited Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, Egypt, and also held a series of meetings with representatives of Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Brazil, and South Africa. Beijing coordinated with these countries its approach to the so-called "cooling off" of the war. Apparently, China and russia are preparing an alternative plan, essentially freezing the war.
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Recently, a huge number of lawyers have appeared on YouTube who comment on changes in legislation related to mobilization. Personally, I like this one the most. Yes, and she says everything correctly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rniUkYh7DwI&t=2s
I remember the reasons for the defeat of the Confederates and see some analogies:
The Confederates built an explicitly white-supremacist, pro-slavery, and antidemocratic nation-state, dedicated to the principle that all men are not created equal.
Combined with the exemptions the government was forced to make for slaveholders, conscription quickly gave rise to charges that it was a “rich man’s war, poor man’s fight.”
The C.S.A.’s level of military mobilization was unsupportable in an agrarian society. By 1863, the government faced a starvation crisis and a wave of food riots organized by white soldiers’ wives protesting the government’s military policies. The Confederacy adopted a series of highly intrusive taxes, labor regulations, and impressment policies. Nobody loved Jefferson Davis when they had to live under his government. The modern embrace of the C.S.A. as a symbol of states’-rights government is particularly ironic in light of its history.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/confederacy-wasnt-what-you-think/613309/
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Blackouts returned to Ukraine, and Kyiv was without electricity almost all night today. Schedules predict more time without electricity than with it, so you will have to plan again the time that can be spent at the computer. My wired Internet also disappears, and mobile Internet becomes very bad. Anyway, the battery on my laptop died about 10 years ago and I can't do anything on it without electricity in the outlet.
Also, there was a fire in the neighboring house and the firefighters were making a lot of noise.
The situation at the front near Kharkiv and elsewhere remains very difficult, although there are reports of damage to the military airfield in the occupied Crimea. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-belbek-krym-pozhezha/32949024.html
In Europe, assassination attempts on the heads of states have started again, and this is a very bad sign.
Slovakia PM Robert Fico in stable but serious condition after shooting https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69019121
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I hope that the fire in the neighboring house caused only minor damage, no injuries, and was not was not a threat to your house. Also I hope the electricity situation will improve for you as repairs are made to the system and air defense shipments arrive and are deployed soon.
Wlad, you always impress me with your broad knowledge of the world and of the US. It hadn't occurred to me but yes there are some similarities between the CSA government policies and the situation Ukraine.
If I may digress, romanticized revisionist history in the US South used to be formally supported there, and still are in subtle ways such as by softening or omitting some things in their school textbooks. A friend, also retired, from South Carolina was taught there in public school that the Civil War was started by the Union North to destroy vague “states rights” and slavery wasn’t mentioned as the fundamental issue.
It was referred to as the “War of Northern Aggression”, and the CSA were therefor the righteous defenders of the South. (Ironic since the SC state militia fired the first shots of the war on Ft. Sumpter. ) This nonsense is still with us among some people and groups of course, but doesn’t have official sanction anymore that I’m aware of except by hints, winks and nods from some politicians.
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I hope that the fire in the neighboring house caused only minor damage, no injuries, and was not was not a threat to your house. Also I hope the electricity situation will improve for you as repairs are made to the system and air defense shipments arrive and are deployed soon.
Wlad, you always impress me with your broad knowledge of the world and of the US. It hadn't occurred to me but yes there are some similarities between the CSA government policies and the situation Ukraine.
Hi Bob! Thank you!
Since I still have electricity, although it has already been cut off in many areas, I will write now. I went and saw the aftermath of the fire. The apartment on the top floor burned down, but since I didn’t listen to the police, I don’t know about any possible victims. The apartment below is flooded, I did not notice any other damage.
I am very interested in knowing everything, but unfortunately I don’t have time to read and watch everything that interests me. The history of the United States is especially interesting because in Ukraine this country is associated with freedom, for the sake of which generations of Ukrainians left Ukraine under the rule of one or another tyrant and left for the United States.
When I saw today a scan of the order of the Ministry of Economy on the reservation of casino chain workers from military service, I first thought that this was a fake and russian propaganda. But then the First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine - the Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Svyridenko canceled this order due to the public outcry https://www.facebook.com/yulia.svyrydenko/posts/pfbid0MyJYtWCzoDM6q4JwCjdjZHmscyn7ds3Pc886cDDxYetp9WExboa9QaymufaYYrsvl
That is, she did not object that from the point of view of the authorities, the casino is a strategically important enterprise in war conditions or about the investigation of corruption in the actions of those who contributed to this. It’s strange that the government responded to the protest from those who still dare to criticize it.
Actually, what surprised me was not how the authorities once again offers the people to eat shit, but the fact that the people calmly eat it. Let me remind you that this authorities was elected by 73% of the population who refuse to take responsibility for the consequences.
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Hi Wlad and others. There is so much to respond to and agree with, here, so I won't attempt it all. Speaking of historical parallels though (such as the CSA), I must admit that when I first heard of the assassination attempt on Slovakia's PM, I immediately thought of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Czechoslovakia (and we all know what that event started). Yes, I know that the parallel is very questionable, but it seems to me that the political state of Europe is ripe for war now just as it was then, and suddenly an assassination occurs. Hopefully that is one parallel that won't follow the pattern of the past.
Although there is no "like" button on this forum, I am reading it.
My best to each one of you.
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The analogy with Franz Ferdinand is so obvious and negative that I also decided not to talk about it. But as I expected, it appeared in everyone who was interested in the history of Europe and the First World War. However, now the situation is completely different and of course there will be consequences, but they will be different.
The issue of Zelensky’s legitimacy is again being actively debated https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cqvnv52y361o , although many confuse legitimacy with the presence of legal grounds for holding office. As a lawyer, I can justify both positions, but I don’t see the point. When it comes to power, you either hold onto it no matter what or lose it, as happened with one of the previous presidents of Ukraine - Yanukovych in 2014. The authorities, of course, call any doubts about their legitimacy russian propaganda. People don't seem to care.
Meanwhile, the Cabinet of Ministers changed the procedure for booking employees of enterprises that provide IT services and designated the Ministry of Digital Affairs as the responsible body. Employees of enterprises that provide electronic communication services or access services to electronic communication networks and their infrastructure, which are determined by the Ministry of Digital Affairs to be critically important in the field of digitalization, are subject to reservation regardless of military rank, age, and military accounting specialty. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/300911-kabmin-izmenil-poryadok-bronirovaniya-rabotnikov-predpriyatiy-predostavlyayuschikh-it-uslugi-i-opredelil-mintsifry-otvetstvennym-organom
At the same time, drivers are afraid of mobilization centers and abandon trucks abroad. No one will be released abroad without updated data. In fact, some companies no longer send such drivers abroad, as cases of cars being abandoned and drivers running away have become more frequent. They said that one of the carriers has 25 refrigerators left in Poland. There are also enough gas trucks there. An interesting picture also emerged among oil traders, where the absolute majority of truck drivers have no reservations. https://hvylya.net/uk/news/292749-voditeli-boyatsya-tck-i-brosayut-fury-za-granicey-kuyun-skazal-zhdat-li-deficit-benzina
The accounting and mobilization system has generated corruption flows of unprecedented size, which probably exceed the size of all the assistance provided by the West.
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Yesterday, border guards shot and killed a man who was trying to leave Ukraine https://inforesist.org/ua/zmi-u-lisi-prikordonniki-zastrelili-cholovika-yakij-namagavsya-nelegalno-perejti-kordon/ . All over the world, the border is guarded so that no one can enter the country, and only in Ukraine and North Korea do they shoot at their citizens who want to leave it. It seems that this was also done to those who wanted to climb over the Berlin Wall.
For the second day, electricity has been cut off throughout the country. In Kyiv this is usually done in the evening and turned on in the morning. The authorities say that this situation will last at least until the end of the summer, then blackouts will repeat in the winter, and it may take years to restore the lost power generation capacities. They say that this is due to the destruction of the energy system. But it was destroyed two months ago, and shutdowns are only now and at night when consumption is at its minimum. Some see a connection with the government's intentions to raise electricity prices and consider this coincidence suspicious. They say that this can be done specifically so that the population will accept the price increase. Now I can believe in anything except that the authorities act lawfully and fairly. Considering that they canceled the elections and are acting as president and deputies after expiration of their powers, this does not surprise me either. As Orwell said, power is not seized in order to give it away.
But as you understand, even a blackout for me means not only stale food in stores, but also clear air and radio, which I enjoy. Yesterday I took out my QRP radio and the straight key again and made several QSO. It was interesting to hear quiet Brazilian stations and distant thunder discharges without any noise.
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Today the weather is beautiful, but the streets are not crowded. Also today, changes to the legislation on mobilization came into force, including the need to have a military ID, and the majority probably decided not to tempt fate. Many are even planning to stay away from work on Monday and wait a while to watch. The sky still didn't fell to earth, only truckers spontaneously blocked one of the country's main roads, but by evening the action ended. https://suspilne.media/odesa/748729-na-odesini-perekrita-trasa-na-kiiv/?utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps
There is also a discussion about the "Reserve+" application for persons liable for military service, conscripts and reservists. https://unn.ua/en/news/ukraine-launches-reserve-application-for-persons-liable-for-military-service-conscripts-and-reservists
Some programmers have already studied it and doubt its reliability and data security, but in order to use this service you need to have a smartphone and a bank account. With the threat of account blocking, many already prefer cash and work unofficially.
Conspiracy theories have even emerged linking blackouts to these changes to further disorient and emotionally affect people. However, they didn’t turn off my electricity today, and I’ve been emotionally unstable for at least the last 10 years and it hasn’t gotten any worse.
I came across some interesting analytics on Afghanistan and see some similarities with Ukraine. It seems that only those who are close enough to the people can retain power. Those who view the people as property and do not respect the rights of people, sooner or later destroy the country and lose power. It is not enough for a regime to be democratic formally; it must be so in essence.
Democracy, leading to the inclusion of many voices in governance, is likely to lead to less repressive governance. In a multi-ethnic state like Afghanistan, a democratic system is less likely to marginalize or mistreat ethnic communities. Less marginalization is likely to lead to greater stability as well as greater justice. While many Afghans seemed to have ambivalent feelings about the democratic system of the former Republic, this appears to have had more to do with the flaws and corruption in its practice than opposition to its principles. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/afghanistan-under-taliban-what-we-know-and-don%E2%80%99t-know-211013
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It seems that, by degrees, Ukraine has stepped through Alice’s looking glass to where everything is reversed from what normal logic should dictate.
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It seems that, by degrees, Ukraine has stepped through Alice’s looking glass to where everything is reversed from what normal logic should dictate.
I often also think that I’m just sleeping and dreaming about it all. I understand perfectly well that everyone’s situation is different, some are better than me, and others are worse. Perhaps we are just actors in a strange and cruel game and nothing depends on us at all. However, it is very interesting to watch this show to the end.
Today is a very quiet and calm day. The sun is shining, poplar fluff is flying and allergy sufferers are crying. My poor Mouse has difficulty opening her eyes and is not always able to climb up the ladder into her house. Today she fell asleep in the feeder. I so wanted her to live to see the end of the war.
I decided to take part in the King of Spain Contest, but it was noisy and the propagation was not very good. However, on 21 and 28 I made some interesting QSO - YC3GEM, YB9ELS, YB2MM, YB1BML, BD1IIJ, VJ3A, VR2GP, SV9/G4OBK/P.
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The pressure on business also increased in connection with the changes to the law "On mobilization training and mobilization". Now not only is the risk of losing an employee due to his forced mobilization increasing, but the responsibility of the management for not providing timely notification and arrival of employees at the mobilization points is provided. https://enovosty.com/uk/news-ukr/news_society-ukr/full/1905-prijshov-na-robotu-otrimaj-povistku-na-ukrainciv-chekayut-duzhe-veliki-syurprizi
On Sunday, russia launched missile attacks on civilian objects in the Kharkiv region and in the regional center. 10 people died, dozens more were injured. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cnkk9gx2kgvo
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced the destruction of the russian sea minesweeper "Kovrovets", which is part of the Black Sea Fleet of the russian federation. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c6pp301zv1zo
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Power outages have become commonplace, but the main problem remains chaos with mobilization. And the problem is not only that there are more people than weapons https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/21/ukraine-is-mobilizing-tens-of-thousands-of-new-troops-they-need-a-lot-more-armored-vehicles/?sh=70bd870f1fe5 , but also in the way it is carried out.
This guy is controversial person, but says all the right things. You can use the subtitles translation function.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkRs63YGrec
There is a good opinion that russia can lose this war https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/08/opinions/victory-day-russia-war-ukraine-snyder
But for this there must be the will of the West. Ukrainians can only die, waiting for their fate to be decided, preparing for a complete lack of energy...
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¡Hola a todos!
I'm glad to see y'all guys. How are you? I neither post anything nor comment since, honestly saying, I have nothing more to say beyond what has already been said. Wlad does outstanding job on keeping the thread move forward so any my step in would definitely be unnecessary.
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Good to hear from you, Gene! You must have awakened very early today.
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Thank you Rob! Yes I did but how did you know? :)
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¡Hola a todos!
Слава Україні!
There was no electricity again at night, but it was not turned off during the day. The air raid ended with an attack on Kharkiv, Dnipro and Kherson. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/05/22/novyna/bezpeka/ataka-rf-dnipri-xarkovi-ta-xersoni-prolunaly-vybuxy
The authorities continue to invent new ways to replenish the army by obliging all those liable for military service to return from abroad https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/05/21/novyna/bezpeka/kabmin-zobovyazav-cholovikiv-znyatyx-obliku-cherez-vyyizd-kordon-prybuty-tczk or simply beat them https://t.me/okoo_ua/57200
There is also a proposal for businesses to pay $500 a month for those they want to keep in their jobs instead of serving in the military. The salary of such workers rarely exceeds the same 500 dollars, so I doubt that this will be widely used.
At the same time, Kyivtransparkservice recognized as a critical infrastructure facility, and Kyiv parkers receive the right to reservation from mobilization https://nenka.info/v-kmda-vidnesly-kp-kyyivtransparkservis-do-kategoriyi-krytychno-vazhlyvyh-dokument
Fortunately, Ukrainian gunners finally get shells to stop russians near Kharkiv https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-gunners-finally-get-shells-stop-russians-near-kharkiv-2024-05-21/
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I started writing this post yesterday, but didn’t have time to do it due to a power outage.
The weather changed again and there was a strong thunderstorm during the day. But I felt it at night when I woke up from chest pain. In the morning I got up heavily and, as usual, went to say hello to the Mouse. She lay on her side, breathing heavily, squeaking and twitching her paw. I wanted to open the cage and pet her, but I didn’t dare to disturb her. A few minutes later she died. I thought that she was waiting for me. She lived for 2.5 years and this is very good for a hamster, but I really wanted her to live until the end of the war.
There was no electricity during the day, as the energy company explained, due to clouds and a drop in the efficiency of solar panels. Apparently Ukraine became the first country in the world to switch to solar energy.
A friend who was nearby called me and we took a walk in the park close to my home. He, like many others, does not know what to do in connection with mobilization. He is already over 50 and is not much healthier than me. He decided to wait a little longer to register. He works for a window installation company and needs to move around. But lately they have practically no orders and everything is handled by a guy who works one shift every three days as a rescuer and has a reservation from mobilization. Many people prefer to simply avoid the police, who can fine you for not having new documents with you. Many are in no hurry to go and receive them, because even disabled people are declared healthy and sent to the army. People joke that even Jesus did not heal people in such numbers as the military medical commission does.
The nature of the war has changed. There were 15 large explosions a day in the center of Kharkіv. If nothing is changed, it will soon be simply destroyed, many people will be killed. Then it will be the next city's turn.
The authorities talk every day about another thousand killed russians, but do not say where all the mobilized Ukrainians go, who do not return, and the trenches remain empty. Some people believe that the war will continue as long as cannon fodder continues to be supplied to the front. This allows you not to think about other ways to stop it. Moreover, people are cheaper than weapons. But fewer and fewer people agree with the authorities' strategy of simply continuing to fight, which for them makes no sense.
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The Second Forum of russian opposition began work in Lviv. Adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak, Garry Kasparov, Leonid Nevzlin, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Mark Feigin, Viktor Shenderovich, writer Mikhail Shishkin, Alfred Koch and many others will speak at the Forum.
The fact that the russians are organizing a coven in Ukraine is disgusting in itself, but there is a purely technical issue.
Ukrainians, tell me, how do male russian citizens of mobilization age cross the border so calmly? By presidential decree of March 14, 2022, the entry of citizens of the russian federation into Ukraine is prohibited. No one from the russian opposition has renounced russian citizenship, as I understand it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pVEaB1f4oc
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Wlad, I’m very sorry about the loss of your beloved Mouse. It must be particularly difficult under present circumstances and with your family abroad.
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Wlad, I’m very sorry about the loss of your beloved Mouse. It must be particularly difficult under present circumstances and with your family abroad.
You are right. This is really a big loss for me. I remember how long it took me to get used to the absence of children every time I went into their room. The Mouse probably compensated for this in many ways. Every time I go to feed her, I remember that there is no one to feed.
Well, this once again reminded me of the transience of time. And about the fact that in Ukraine I only have a few friends left and a faint hope for the end of the war and the return of democracy.
President Joe Biden will likely miss a Ukraine Peace Summit next month because it conflicts with a campaign fundraiser in California he’s set to attend alongside George Clooney, Julia Roberts and other stars. Switzerland scheduled the conference for June 15-16, after a meeting of the Group of Seven in Italy. Several G-7 leaders plan to join but neither Biden nor Vice President Kamala Harris are scheduled to be there, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named discussing private deliberations. China and several other nations in the so-called Global South have pushed for russia to be involved in the process, but President pootin wasn’t invited and leaders from other nations are also planning to skip. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/clooney-kimmel-fundraiser-pulls-biden-away-from-a-meeting-on-ukraine-peace-plan
Thus, even before the start of the summit, its ineffectiveness is obvious. Apparently, this will be another fiasco of the Ukrainian authority. I don’t think that russia and its allies will recognize Zelensky’s legitimacy; accordingly, no one will sign anything with him at all. And this is another non-obvious consequence of refusing to hold elections.
Legitimacy (from the Latin. legitimus — according to the laws, legitimate, legal) — the ability of a political regime to achieve public recognition and justification of its chosen political course, political decisions made by it, personnel or functional changes in power structures. The lower the level of legitimacy, the more often the authority will rely on coercion. This explains a lot of what is happening in the country.
Last year I was surprised at the carelessness of the army leadership regarding communications. I don't know of any army in the world that relies solely on mobile phones and satellite Internet from a private provider, even one like Starlink. Most Ukrainian soldiers are provided, at best, with commercial Motorola radios. There is simply no secure autonomous military communications network. And the latest russian offensive has demonstrated not only the vulnerability of direct communications, but also jeopardized the control of drones. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/technology/ukraine-russia-starlink.html
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Also sorry to hear about your mouse, but I'm even more sorry to hear about the mobilization situation and the dilemma it presents to everyone, especially the infirm.
I had read this morning about Biden prioritizing Hollywood over Ukraine. Outrageous. "Hey, priorities."
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Wlad, I’m very sorry about the loss of your beloved Mouse.
I'm very sorry as well, Wlad. :'(
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According to the new "Procedure for the recruitment of citizens for military service during mobilization", the commission at the mobilization center will have extremely wide discretion in the matter of approving or refusing to grant a deferral to anyone who submits such an application, except for those reserved by the authorities. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/301740-kabmin-ne-opredelil-osnovaniy-otkaza-v-predostavlenii-otsrochki-chto-pozvolyaet-komissii-pri-ttsk-otkazyvat-po-lyubym-prichinam
At the same time, at least 138 conscripts were marked unfit for service in the army in the Register for $4.5-7 thousand bribe only in the Odesa mobilization center, the State Bureau of Investigation reported. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/301750-v-odesskom-ttsk-za-45-7-tysyach-oboznachili-neprigodnymi-v-reestre-obereg-po-menshey-mere-138-voennoobyazannykh-gbr
Lawyers who joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine for military service will have to stop their legal activities according to the instructions of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. https://unba.org.ua/news/9161-golovkom-nakazav-usunuti-nesumisnist-statusu-advokata-z-vijs-kovoyu-sluzhboyu-zmi.html I have a question for the head of the National Bar Association of Ukraine, why doesn't she issue an instruction to stop such lawyers from military service?
After I finished the US Bankruptcy webinar I was preparing with Dave KB9YYM and finished writing the second book, I decided to spend some time on the radio over the weekend.
Power outages and air raids constantly interrupted my participation, but I carried out a hundred of QSO in CQ WW WPX CW 2024 with 100W, GP, 14, 21, 28MHz. Only DX.
But either the excessive stress of competing or something else already caused chest pain last night and I slept very poorly. In the morning I got up in the same state as when I went to bed, it took me half a day to recover. The strangest thing is that the blood pressure and pulse numbers are almost normal, but severe weakness and pain in the heart contradict this.
Perhaps my condition was also influenced by emotional communication with my wife, who shared the conversation with a friend. Her family lost their home in the occupied east and she was the only one who kept a job. But they had her elderly mother and mentally retarded brother in their care. At first they sent him to a specialized institution, but his condition deteriorated greatly there. If ordinary people feel like animals in this country, then you can imagine what it is like for people with special needs. They saw the solution to go to Germany, but she would not able to simultaneously care for her mother, son and brother there. Her husband is denied permission to leave Ukraine and they are thinking about how to find a way to do this. I don’t know why Germany takes on the burden of helping such people, but each such situation illustrates well why Ukrainians treat the state this way and do not want to fight for it.
So today I decided to rest. During the planned usual SSB QSO with Colin G3ZAF, the power was turned off again, but we were able to make a short CW QRP QSO.
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In the afternoon of May 25, the russian army shelled Kharkiv again. They hit the construction hypermarket Epicenter. Currently, at least 16 people are known to have died, more than 40 people were injured. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/clmmkx75r85o
But my friend who lives in Kharkiv says that there are explosions every day due to missiles and aerial bombs.
Also, on the night of May 25-26, the russian army massively attacked Ukraine, using almost one and a half dozen missiles and more than 30 attack drones. Most of them were shot down. https://weukraine.tv/top/letili-kindzhali-ta-kh-101-voroh-atakuvav-ukrajinu-14-raketami-ta-31-shakhedom/
The US has promised to destroy all russian military positions in Ukraine if the Kremlin decides to use nuclear weapons. This was stated in an interview by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, Radoslav Sikorskyi. He added that russia was also warned against the use of nuclear weapons by other countries - China and India.
https://24tv.ua/ssha-znishhat-pozitsiyi-rosiyan-yakshho-kreml-zastosuye-yadernu_n2562683
The State Bureau of Investigation has launched an investigation into the command of the 125th separate brigade of the Territorial Defense due to the breakthrough of the russians in the Kharkiv region. Investigators found out that on May 10, near Strelecha, Krasny, Borysivka, Pylny, Gatysh and other settlements of the Kharkiv region, units of the 125th brigade left their combat positions during the assault of the russians. These are units of up to one company, which were part of the first echelon of defense. As a result, the russian offensive had to be repulsed by the forces of the second echelon of defense. In addition, according to the investigation, the command of the 125 brigade and its subordinate units, including 415 separate rifle battalions, 23 mechanized brigades and 172 separate rifle battalions, did not properly organize the defense of positions on the border with the Russian Federation, which led to the loss of positions, military equipment and personnel. https://babel.ua/news/107460-dbr-pochalo-rozsliduvannya-cherez-proriv-rosiyan-na-harkivshchini-u-spravi-figuruyut-komandiri-125-brigadi
In Transcarpathia, dodgers attacked a border guard. After the shots and the fight, the men stole the border guard's weapon and fled to Romania. https://zahid.espreso.tv/novyny-zakarpattya-na-zakarpatti-ukhilyanti-napali-na-prikordonnika-vikrali-zbroyu-ta-vtekli-u-rumuniyu-zhurnalist-glagola
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Ukraine signed an agreement on security guarantees with Spain. This is another agreement that does not change anything. But everyone pretends to do something...
https://gazeta.ua/articles/politics/_ukrayina-pidpisala-ugodu-pro-garantiyi-bezpeki-z-ispaniyeyu/1182447
Brazil and China are calling for an international conference recognized by both Russia and Ukraine to discuss proposals to halt the war, throwing up an alternative to a push by Kyiv for its own Western-backed peace plan.
China and Brazil both released a statement outlining “common understandings” on a path to resolving the war, which started when Russian invaded Ukraine in February 2022. It is the first time China has signed a joint declaration with another country about the conflict.
The statement came after a meeting on Thursday between China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Brazil’s Celso Amorim, chief adviser to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
“China and Brazil support an international peace conference held at a proper time that is recognized by both Russia and Ukraine, with equal participation of all parties as well as fair discussion of all peace plans,” read the joint-statement signed in Beijing, which repeats language used by President Xi Jinping on previous occasions.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/brazil-china-call-for-peace-conference-on-russia-ukraine-war
EU foreign ministers meeting on Monday (27 May) vented their anger with Hungary’s “pattern of behaviour” which increasingly often blocks EU foreign policy decisions and prevents progress on crucial military aid for Ukraine.
The foreign ministers gathered in Brussels focused on how the bloc could unlock funds from the EU’s off-budget European Peace Facility (EPF).
Hungary has been blocking partial reimbursements for weapons earmarked for Ukraine under the EU’s off-budget European Peace Facility (EPF) for almost a year, with the amount estimated at €6.5 billion – three reimbursement tranches and the new €5 billion-heavy Ukraine Assistance Fund (UAF).
Budapest initially cited Ukraine’s anti-corruption agency for having blacklisted Hungary’s OTP Bank as an “international sponsor of war” as one of the main reasons for their blockage. But while the bank has since then been removed from the blacklist, Hungary has kept the veto in place.
“There is growing frustration (to say the least), as the EU currently sits on €5 billion of support and very soon on the [Russian] windfall profits stemming from immobilised assets, which are at risk of not being used properly if there is no agreement,” one EU diplomat said.
In Monday’s discussion, Budapest was now quoted as saying that its economy is being discriminated against in Ukraine, according to people familiar with the discussions. The new explanation had drawn significant pushback from other EU counterparts, they said.
Inside the room, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called on Budapest “to finally allow aid to Ukraine once again, because Europe is only strong if it is united.”
An increasing number of EU member states are starting to point to Hungary’s overall track record, rather than the fact that Budapest has ‘not yet completely vetoed’ any EU decision on Ukraine.
“We looked into this and about 41% of resolutions by the EU on Ukraine have been blocked by Hungary,” Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrelius Landsbergis told reporters.
“The EPF is blocked; Ukraine’s accession talks are being held hostage by Hungary – and I could go on and on – the [EU’s] declaration on Georgia, the EPF [support] to Armenia – basically, almost all of our discussions and needed solutions and decisions (…) are being blocked by just one country,” Landsbergis said.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/eu-countries-vent-anger-at-hungarys-blockages-of-ukraine-aid-decisions/
Overall, I agree with the conclusions of this article and the future is uncertain - https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/06/03/ukraine-faces-a-crucial-moment-in-the-war
It is no secret that russia has concentrated its troops near the northern border, but it seems that the Ukrainian authorities are ready for this as before. It is good that, although they are no longer urging not to panic and prepare for the holidays as in 2022. https://informator.ua/uk/rosiyski-drg-namagayutsya-probratisya-v-ukrajinu-po-vsiy-protyazhnosti-kordonu-iz-sumskoyu-oblastyu-dpsu
In Germany, they plan to open schools with the study of the Ukrainian language. They want to introduce Ukrainian as a second foreign language in the schools of Hessen. At the same time, the local Ministry of Culture stated that such a measure should help the federal state in the competition for future specialists and teachers, and on the other hand, simplify the integration into the education system of schoolchildren who fled Ukraine.
https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/als-fremdsprachen-fach-1-bundesland-fuehrt-ukrainisch-an-schulen-ein-6650568cbade7176939c3603?t_ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F
The National Bank of Ukraine notes the growing shortage of qualified employees in banking and non-banking financial institutions. https://psm7.com/uk/company/nbu/nbu-povidomlyaye-pro-deficzyt-kadriv-u-finansovomu-sektori.html
The European Business Association appealed to the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk and the heads of parliamentary factions with a request not to support bill No. 11195 - on a mechanism for protecting the property rights of third parties.
According to the association’s experts, although the draft law contains a title regarding a mechanism for protecting the property rights of third parties, in essence it is intended to establish a new legal mechanism for the recovery of shares, and not only of sanctioned persons, but also non-sanctioned ones, into the state’s income.
That is, any one minority shareholder in an enterprise on which the National Security and Defense Council will impose sanctions is sufficient, and this gives the Cabinet of Ministers the right to appropriate shares belonging to non-sanctioned persons. The draft law does not provide for any transparent and quick mechanism for restoring the property rights of all other non-sanctioned shareholders." https://www.unian.net/politics/biznes-vystupil-protiv-zakonoproekta-o-nezakonnom-lishenii-prava-sobstvennosti-12648195.html
Obviously this must be damn attractive to investors...
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Today I slept all night and there is electricity all day. It `s very unusual. I walked a little this morning, but decided to rest and recuperate again today.
Ukrainians have a new vocabulary for some of the things that have appeared in their lives recently. I already said that Iranian drones are called “mopeds” because of their sound. The term "busification" is also widely used to refer to the process of forcibly transporting men to a mobilization center using buses. There is even a joke related to buses that it is a shame when you are taken to the mobilization center on a bus that you donated for the army.
Today on one forum I read an opinion that it debunked the myth about freedom-loving Ukrainians who took to the Maidan because cops beat a bunch of students. It seems that the Ukrainians are not capable of resisting the authorities without external help and thus resemble the weak-willed russians. It is very sad to hear this, but there is something in it...
Since citizens simply will not be able to physically update their data in 60 days and they may receive large fines, the deputies submitted a bill to increase the deadline for updating the data of conscripts from 60 to 150 days.
"Now the system of mobilization centers was not ready to accept the number of citizens who went to update the data. Since, after updating the data in the "Reserve+" application and the search information, you still need to go to the mobilization center. This shows that the application was developed very quickly and under tight deadlines. Not only that, it later turned out that the codes that were used to create the application were copied from the school curriculum. That is why, at the next meeting of the Committee on Digital Transformation, we summoned the Deputy Minister of Defense and also put a number of questions to the government. In particular, where did the funds for the creation of the application come from and whether a competition was held for a software developer," MP Aryev said.
https://espreso.tv/suspilstvo-reestruemo-zakonoproekt-pro-prodovzhennya-terminu-onovlennya-danikh-dlya-viyskovozobovyazanikh-do-150-dniv-nardep-arev
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Good mornin' Wlad, Gene
Reading about your lovely mouse passing took me by surprise. I certainly share the sorrow and loss of that beautiful little spirit.
I separated from the US Navy back in the 1980's. While I was deployed, some thoughtful people back in Washington DC decided that sine the US no longer had "the draft" where individuals were selected at random to serve in the military, to a new Selective Service, where all kids were required to fill out paperwork with the military when they turned 18 years old.
I received a notice that stated that I had FAILED to file this paper with the government! I made a copy of my military ID and sent it back! :)
It is the day after Memorial Day. Yesterday, I paid my respects to the fallen veterans at two cemeteries. The little cemetery is just up the road from me and was abandoned by the city in the 1960's. The city laid down all the head stones (to make mowing easier) and closed the gates. It didn't take long before people started vandalizing everything inside the gates. About 15 years ago, a group of volunteers began restoring the cemetery, righting & repairing head stones and markers. Then they began the work of identifying all the dead veterans. Once confirmed, they work with our military which then arranges a new, period correct head stone for each vet.
It was a pleasure to see the new stones shining in the sunlight, flags flapping.
Thanks for the links you post Wlad. They have helped me keep abreast with world craziness!
73
Jaye
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They have helped me keep abreast with world craziness!
Agree, Jaye. Every time I think that I am no longer capable of being surprised, they try to surprise me again.
As a person who knew about previous wars not only from official propaganda, but also from surviving members of my family, I long ago came to the conclusion that new wars begin when people forget about the previous ones. Then everyone talks about victories, but they prefer not to remember all the tragedies and those who did not live to see victory.
Ukraine is not allowed to use Western air defense against attacking russian aircraft; it has to wait until the bombers have released their cruise missiles and they are already over Ukrainian territory to fight them. According to BILD information, the Ukrainian army used a “Patriot” system from Germany at least once to take action itself. The reaction: angry calls from Berlin and Washington and threats to stop supplying anti-aircraft missiles if such an incident were to happen again.
https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/mega-nachteil-im-krieg-ukraine-darf-nicht-gegen-putin-zurueckschiessen-6654744307be9453db597adb
Sweden is being asked to pause plans to send the Jas Gripen to Ukraine, Defense Minister Pål Jonson (M) tells TT. The announcement comes in Brussels after Jonson had "intensive talks" with other countries in the air defense coalition that helps Ukraine with both aircraft and air defense systems.
- We have been urged by the other countries that run the coalition to wait for the Gripen system. It has to do with the fact that the focus is now on introducing the F-16 system, Jonson explains.
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Rr77qd/aftonbladet-direkt?pinnedEntry=1257789
Jeremy Bowen: Ukraine faces its worst crisis since the war began https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9xx15pe311o
Interesting things are happening with energy. This is what the rivers from which they took water for power plants look like https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7eC0V-oHnC/?igsh=NWN3dHhqNXloOXB5
But there has been no rain yet and drought is expected. I don't know what consequences will happen soon because of this.
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Good mornin' Wlad, Gene
Good morning Jay, good morning everybody.
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Once again Ukraine strikes russian strategic radars. If the attack was successful, it means 50% of russian OTH radars responsible for detecting an incoming ICBM strike from the "southern axis" are down. This time, the Voronezh-M radar system was hit, located about 1,500 km from the Ukrainian border. Considering the earlier attack on the similar Voronezh-DM radar in Armavir on May 23, the effort has signs of being systematic at this point. The facilities affected by these strikes are the strategic "eyes" of russia that are designed to detect intercontinental and medium-range ballistic missiles; they are an integral component of the russian system of early warning about an incoming strategic missile strike. While one of these radars in Armavir could observe a small part of the russian-occupied Crimea, focusing more on the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea and Turkiye, the Voronezh-M near Orsk did not look in the direction of Ukraine at all. That is because the task of this radar on the border with Kazakhstan is to warn about ballistic missiles flying in the sector stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Japan. That is, the responsibility of Voronezh-M near Orsk is, first of all, China, as well as India and Pakistan, and besides them the possible launch areas in the Indian Ocean. https://en.defence-ua.com/news/strategic_blindness_the_effect_of_ukraines_attack_on_voronezh_m_over_the_horizon_radar_in_orsk_explained-10643.html
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland may send their troops to Ukraine if russia makes serious progress on the front, writes the German Spiegel with reference to its sources. According to the publication, Baltic politicians fear that due to insufficient support from the West, in particular Germany, the russian army may achieve a serious breakthrough. On the sidelines of a recent conference on foreign and security policy held in Tallinn, representatives of the Baltic states warned their German counterparts that Berlin's moderate position on armed support for Kyiv is drawing criticism in their countries, and also warned of the consequences of such a course. It is, in particular, about the refusal to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons and the prohibition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to strike with Western weapons on the territory of the russian federation.
"If russia achieves a strategic breakthrough in the east of Ukraine due to the fact that the West is only half helping Kyiv, the situation may escalate sharply," Baltic officials said. And they warned their German colleagues that they will not wait for the russians to approach their borders, so they will introduce their military contingent into Ukraine. The publication states that this will make NATO a participant in the conflict, which is what German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and US President Joe Biden are so afraid of. "Those who want to limit war through excessive restraint actually risk getting it out of control," Spiegel sums up.
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-die-angst-vor-dem-grossen-krieg-a-2d8b49c8-ca5f-473c-8299-cbb737c26a02
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cmmmj78n4qpo
Zelensky said that Putin will give a "standing ovation" if Biden does not come to the Peace Summit in Switzerland: "I know that America supports the summit, but you and I do not know at what level. I believe that this is not a very strong decision" https://ua.korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/4449684-vtorhnennia-rosii-v-ukrainu-onlain
I wonder what Biden thinks about this? I would be offended.
pootin questioned the legitimacy of President Volodymyr Zelensky for the second time in the last ten days https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c0jj1jx7lx7o pootin's opinion is clear, but really, what prevents canceling martial law for two days and holding elections? Just don't talk about the war, refugees and the army, who won't be able to vote. In 2014 and 2019, this did not prevent elections to be held under the same circumstances. Regarding the powers, it is also interesting. Who among you would risk buying an apartment on the basis of a power of attorney whose term of authority expired just a couple of days ago? If I were making a legal opinion, I would point out such risks and recommend refusing such a transaction. However, it seems to me that the most dangerous thing is the lack of an alternative. However, few people talk about this out loud.
A while back I mentioned an amazing company Brave1 that came out of nowhere with fantastic "unhackable" walkie talkies being promoted to the military. I suspected that this might be related to corrupt procurement. Now this company is personally supported by the Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov https://t.me/zedigital/4571
Everything is falling into place...
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Ukrainian crews working on US-supplied Abrams tanks have told CNN of a series of the weaknesses and flaws with the armored vehicles, calling into doubt their utility on the war’s ever-changing frontlines. The donation was announced by US President Joe Biden as evidence of the United States’ “enduring and unflagging commitment to Ukraine.” Crews trained in Germany said the vehicles – the US military’s main $10 million battle tank used in Iraq against Saddam Hussein’s forces and insurgents – lacked armor that could stop modern weapons. “Its armor is not sufficient for this moment,” said one crew member, callsign Joker. “It doesn’t protect the crew. For real, today this is the war of drones. So now, when the tank rolls out, they always try to hit them.” His colleague, Dnipro, added they are the “number one target.” “Without defense, the crew doesn’t survive at the battlefield,” he said.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/29/europe/ukraine-war-us-tanks-intl/index.html
The Czechoslovak Group (CSG), the largest supplier of ammunition in Central Europe, said that half of the shells that were supposed to be sent to Ukraine will not reach the front as quickly as planned. About 50 percent of the supplies that his company purchased on behalf of the Czech government in Africa and Asia turned out to be of poor quality and need to be refined before being sent to Ukraine. CSG is forced to add missing components of its own production to some shells. Prime Minister of the Czech Republic Petr Fiala noted that 15 EU and NATO countries have so far provided 1.6 billion euros to the Czech initiative, the goal of which is to provide Ukraine with 1.5 million artillery shells. The first batch of tens of thousands of 155 mm shells will arrive in Ukraine next month, he said. The Czech government asked CSG and other Czech defense companies to act as intermediaries and supply shells from countries outside the EU. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cqll0ngejn1o
Looks like another good opportunity to cash in on the war, which the Czech Republic took advantage of.
To keep Ukraine’s artillery crews supplied, the Pentagon set a production target last year of 100,000 shells per month by the end of 2025. Factories in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, Pa., together make about 36,000 shells per month. The new General Dynamics facility in Mesquite, Texas, will make 30,000 each month once it reaches its full capacity. The 100,000-per-month goal represents a nearly tenfold increase in production from a few years ago. An Ohio-based defense firm called IMT is expected to make up the difference. Less than a year ago, the surrounding area here in North Texas was just a dirt field. But with millions of dollars from Congress and help from Repkon, the American defense firm General Dynamics was able to open the factory about 10 months after breaking ground.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/us/pentagon-ammunition-ukraine-russia.html
This is what smart people do - they produce weapons in their own country and use them in other countries. But looking at all these wonderful technologies, I continue to wonder what genetically determined mental deviations of humanity prompt them to use these technologies to kill, instead of improving their lives?
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Ukraine will not move further on its path to membership of Nato at this year’s annual summit, The Telegraph can reveal, amid fears the alliance could be drawn into a war with russia.
The decision is expected to frustrate Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, who has been warned by counterparts not to demand the “impossible” from the alliance.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/28/ukraine-no-nearer-to-joining-nato-this-year-zelensky-told/
Sharp fractures are opening between Kyiv and its Western backers, including the United States, over the future of Ukraine’s defense against russia’s invasion. Ukrainian leaders have increasingly complained that Washington is restricting their ability to respond to russian attacks as U.S. policymakers push them to do more to fight corruption even amid the worsening war. Meanwhile, European and American officials are quarreling about strategy to turn the tide on the battlefield.
U.S. officials — and some Ukrainian ones — have been alarmed in recent weeks by the targeting of reformist officials who were willing to battle corruption inside their own ministries and who appeared especially close to Washington.
The dismissal this month of deputy prime minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, who had been focused on infrastructure and rebuilding Ukraine, was especially alarming, U.S. and European officials said.
The coming months will bring more flash points. European elections in June are likely to bolster far-right forces that are skeptical of Ukraine’s path to joining the European Union. A NATO summit in Washington in July is unlikely to offer Ukraine the clear track toward alliance membership that Kyiv desires.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/05/30/ukraine-us-strategy-disagreement-corruption/
May 29, the government presents the 16th and largest military aid package to date to Ukraine since russia's full-scale invasion began. Sweden is assisting Ukraine with a completely new capability that strengthens Ukraine's combined air defense. The package that will be included in an upcoming additional amendment budget amounts to a value of SEK 13.3 billion and meets Ukraine's prioritized needs.
https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2024/05/militart-stodpaket-16-till-ukraina--ny-formaga-som-starker-ukrainas-luftforsvar-och-stod-som-moter-ukrainas-prioriterade-behov/
In the "Oberig" registry (the only automated information and telecommunication system that will accumulate data on all conscripted citizens of Ukraine), 710,000 citizens had the status of "wanted" without legal grounds. This was reported by Deputy Minister of Defense Kateryna Chernogorenko. https://pravdatutnews.com/society/2024/05/29/42325-ponad-700-tysyach-ukrayinciv-buly-v-bezpidstavnomu-rozshuku-u
Thus, what I said earlier was officially confirmed - the state first declared everyone criminals, and then admitted that it had done so by mistake. How many more such mistakes has the state made and will make, and how can it count on the patriotism of its citizens? So far, citizens are trying with all their might to avoid any contact with the state, so as not to receive punishment without being able to prove their innocence.
Meanwhile, the young and strong are trying to cross the dangerous river, trying to leave Ukraine.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/29/ukraines-desperate-draft-dodgers-drown-in-the-river-of-death
There is even a joke that if you have killed someone and want to get rid of the corpse, just throw it into Tysa river and everyone will think that it is just another dodger.
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War has always been a stimulus for scientific progress, and Ukraine seems to be the best testing ground for many new military technologies. As ukraine’s stocks of artillery shells have dwindled, its army’s reliance on drones has grown. These are able to deliver ammunition with great precision over long distances—provided they can maintain connections with gps satellites (so they know where they are) and their operators (so they know what to do). Such communication signals can be jammed, however, and russia’s electronic warfare, as signals scrambling is known, is fearsomely effective. With large numbers of its drones in effect blinded, Ukraine’s drone technologists have been forced to get creative. Machine sight software packages have been developed that allow drone to navigate the terrain and identify targets even if communications or satellite positioning systems are lost. https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/05/29/many-ukrainian-drones-have-been-disabled-by-russian-jamming
Electricity restrictions, which were absent for the past two days, may return due to the repair of nuclear units. There are no electricity restrictions for two days due to the fact that two power units were taken out of repair. The units that are planned to be sent for repair will return to work in two months. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/vidklyuchennya-svitla-mozhut-povernuti-na-pochatku-chervnya-cherez-remont-atomnih-blokiv-50422941.html
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Today at about 4 am I was woken up by a loud explosion, then I heard the sounds of air defense. An electrical substation in a neighboring area was destroyed and cars were damaged. There is much more destruction in Kharkiv and there are dead and wounded there. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c6ppvqgygy6o
The price of electricity has almost doubled, but people are more worried about its availability. Today in Kyiv it was not turned off again, but they warned that the shutdowns would return soon. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cv22pm8mn7lo
However, there is an opinion that there is fraud in the energy sector and the increase in prices is not related to the destruction. A redistribution of the market and the emergence of new energy oligarchs are also expected. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMjAHsPYlpA
The number of Ukrainians living in poverty has grown by 1.8 million since 2020, bringing the total to about 29% of the population as russia's 2022 invasion continues to ravage the country's economy, the World Bank said in a report. The situation would be much worse if Ukraine had not received substantial foreign budget support to pay old-age pensions and salaries for teachers, doctors and others, according to Arup Banerji, the World Bank's regional director for Eastern Europe. "If international partners, especially the U.S., had not crowded in resources specifically tailored to these social expenditures, then there would have been three million more people in poverty," he told Reuters in an interview. It noted that nearly one-quarter of Ukrainians surveyed did not have enough money to buy food at some point in June 2023, although a rebound in economic growth and slowing inflation had helped to improve food security in the second half of the year. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/world-bank-says-18-mln-additional-ukrainians-poverty-russias-war-drags-2024-05-30/
At present, there is an acute shortage of specialists in labor professions in KP "Kyiv Metropoliten". In particular, there are 83 vacancies for electric train drivers, 48 for electromechanics, and 161 for turners and locksmiths in the respective fields. The reason for the increase in the number of vacancies is partially forced migration, the specifics of professions and mobilization work in connection with martial law. In particular, about 7% of subway workers are currently in the ranks of the Armed Forces, and their number is constantly increasing. "Kyiv Metropoliten" constantly conducts intensified personnel work to attract specialists. In particular, it cooperates with specialized education institutions and the city employment center. At the same time, the metro is a narrow-profile enterprise, and the preparation and adaptation of some professions requires long-term special training. Yes, the driver of an electric train, before the moment of his independent work on the line, studies for more than 12 months. http://www.metro.kyiv.ua/node/7959
Russia has accused NATO and the US of "provoking a new level of tension" after the US and Germany became the latest allies to let Ukraine's military use Western-supplied weapons to strike targets inside russia. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqq2zn3zw6o
However, I have seen that this permission does not apply to all weapons and to a depth of no more than 40 km.
China will not attend a Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland next month because it does not meet its expectations, which include both russia and Ukraine taking part, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Friday, confirming an exclusive Reuters report. https://www.reuters.com/world/china-will-not-join-swiss-peace-conference-ukraine-sources-say-2024-05-31/
Also, everyone is closely following events in the United States, which will likely greatly influence the upcoming presidential elections. Donald Trump said on Friday he would appeal the guilty verdict that made him the first U.S. president convicted of a crime, though he will have to wait until after his sentencing on July 11 before taking that step. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-race-plunges-into-uncharted-territory-trump-awaits-july-sentencing-2024-05-31/
I talked to the doctor today and he said my blood pressure and pulse numbers are good, but ordered me to take the same meds in the same doses. Still, I feel bad from time to time and confirm that my condition is stable, but without improvement. I began to eat a little less and lost two kilograms. Apparently, under these circumstances, I'm still holding up pretty well.
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Today I heard the opinion that the stockpiles of weapons in the West are much larger than they say, and the reference to their shortage is only an excuse for the reluctance to provide more to Ukraine. I don’t know how true this assumption is, but it seems that the West’s calculation is based on containing russia, but not defeating it. It seems to me that this plan has a couple of vulnerabilities that do not take into account the destruction of the energy and economy of Ukraine and the mood of the population. I think I'm beginning to understand why Afghanistan chose a dictatorship that was close to the people instead of a corrupt democracy. Ukraine has no choice at all.
Yesterday, a missile exploded in Odesa https://24tv.ua/odesi-prolunav-duzhe-silniy-vibuh_n2566971 , and this night the scale of the attack and destruction was much greater. The target of the attack was energy, said relevant minister Herman Galushchenko. According to his data, there is destruction of objects in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kirovohrad and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. The military airfield in Starokostyantyniv was also attacked. Also, every day air bombs and missiles destroy Kharkіv. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cn33zmllr00o
Institute for the Study of War issued an russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31, 2024 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2024.
ISW has observed evidence confirming that russian forces have only seized approximately 752 square kilometers in 2024. I liked the word "only". It sounds like sarcasm.
Meanwhile, mobilization continues to be used very selectively and from time to time as a means of cracking down on regime opponents.
On May 30, Suspilny Chanel published an article in which Ukrinform correspondent in Chernihiv and Cherkasy regions, Yuriy Strygun, reported that in December 2023, he received a "temnik" from the editor with desirable and undesirable speakers in Chernihiv region.
In journalistic jargon, the "temnik" - a word derived from the word "thema" - means an instruction from the authorities, which is disseminated among the media, regarding topics or people that are allowed or prohibited to be discussed.
On May 29, "Ukrainian Pravda" published the article "All of them. How the Office of the President takes control of Ukrinform", in which it was reported that journalist Oleksiy Matsuka, who is considered a protégé of the Office of the President, introduced censorship and "dungeons" in the position of director general of Ukrinform.
Ukrinform correspondent in Chernihiv and Cherkasy regions Yuriy Strygun, who on May 30 publicly confirmed the fact of sending "temniks" in the agency, received today, May 31, a summons with a demand to appear at the mobilization center at the place of registration. Yuriy Strygun calls it a strange coincidence that such attention was paid to him by the Military Commissariat just after disclosure of the "temnik". According to the journalist, he is 57 years old and has never served in the army. https://texty.org.ua/fragments/112606/zhurnalist-ukrinformu-sho-rozpoviv-pro-temnyky-v-ahentstvi-nastupnoho-dnya-otrymav-povistku/
The Ministry of Defense calls for the creation of the Military Police, which will have the right to search for and detain military personnel. https://meta.ua/uk/news/war-in-ukraine/167834-minoboroni-zaklikae-stvoriti-viiskovu-politsiyu-yaki-yiyi-budut-zavdannya/
Today there was a thunderstorm and rain in Kyiv and there is still no propagation.
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Today it rained all night and sometimes during the day. There was not a single air raid in Kyiv and the electricity was not turned off all day.
But there was an explosion in Odesa https://informator.ua/uk/v-odesi-prolunav-potuzhniy-vibuh-pid-chas-povitryanoji-trivogi-nad-mistom-vidniyetsya-dim
The same drain on personnel that’s weakened Ukrainian forces staving off russia’s onslaught on the battlefield is also sapping the productivity of the war-battered nation’s factory floors, construction sites, mines and restaurants.
A mobilization law that went into effect last month is aimed at replenishing Ukraine’s military ranks with hundreds of thousands of troops. But the lack of able-bodied men and women is emerging as a burden for businesses large and small that make up the backbone of a wartime economy.
It’s a conundrum for President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is desperate to replenish his forces while ensuring that the shortage doesn’t damage an economy he needs to keep afloat.
“We are now in a war of attrition,” Ukrainian Deputy Central Bank Governor Sergiy Nikolaychuk said in an interview in Kyiv. “It is very difficult to choose between butter and guns.”
Nikolaychuk said a collapse in economic output compared with 2021 was linked with a contraction of about 27% in the available labor force from pre-war levels. In addition to an estimated more than 6 million people who fled the war, the vacuum has been exacerbated by men who’ve disappeared into a shadow economy of unregistered employees ducking conscription.
It’s a policy challenge that can’t be fixed with help from allies, who are dispatching ammunition and air-defense equipment. Manpower is a finite issue — one that gives russia and its vast resources an advantage.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-01/ukraine-s-shortage-of-manpower-is-hitting-its-wartime-industry
It seems that the authorities still have not realized that they are the main reason for this situation and are not going to change anything. I foresee big problems in the coming months. Ukraine is full of people, but no one wants to deal with the authorities and their attitude towards people. In 2022, millions were ready to fight for freedom and democracy, but in 2024 no one wants to fight for dictatorship, corruption and slavery.
I heard that one large construction company has begun to hire workers from the Middle East who are not afraid of mobilization. Well, this trend could lead to Ukraine becoming very similar to russia, which suffers from clashes between locals and migrants from the east.
At the same time, according to deputy Oleksiy Goncharenko, the Cabinet of Ministers plans to cancel the reservation of some employees of the State Service of Ukraine in emergency situations. As a result, they will be able to be mobilized into the ranks of the Armed Forces. The deputy called such an initiative of the officials a "crazy decision". He reminded that it is emergency workers who save the lives of Ukrainians after repeated enemy attacks, as well as eliminate the consequences of russian strikes. https://one.ua/15298-mobilizaciya-v-ukraine-rabotniki-gschs-mogut-poteryat-bron-goncharenko
Unfortunately, it is often very difficult to find out what is true and what is fake, although what you don't want to believe is often the truth. In social networks and forums, stories about the illegal mobilization of sick people appear every day. Sometimes there are simply crazy comments, such as under the message about the mobilization of an oligophrenic. People joked that this is a big loss for the Cabinet of Ministers where he could write laws. Others answered them that he was probably healthy enough to serve in the army, but not sick enough to work in the Cabinet. The most terrible thing is that over time, official comments of representatives of mobilization centers appear, where they recognize the shameful cases of mobilization, but say that the problem was only that the person did not have documents confirming their illness.
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Former Minister of Fuel and Energy of Ukraine Ivan Plachkov pointed out the critical situation in Kharkiv. According to him, there is no heat generation there now. Thermal electric plant-5 and other critical infrastructure facilities were destroyed in the regional center. Currently, local boiler houses are brought to the city, but this will not be enough in winter. "I advise many people already now to look for friends and acquaintances in villages and district centers where there is traditional heating with wood, so that there is an opportunity to go there at least for a few weeks. Therefore, in general, the situation in the energy system of Ukraine during the heating season will be very threatening. The situation now it is critical, but in winter it can be catastrophic," the ex-minister emphasized. https://top.today.ua/v-ukrayini-vzymku-mozhut-vidklyuchyty-opalennya-gromadyan-zaklykaly-shukaty-u-selah-budynky-ta-drova/
Many U.S.-made satellite-guided munitions in Ukraine have failed to withstand russian jamming technology, prompting Kyiv to stop using certain types of Western-provided armaments after effectiveness rates plummeted, according to senior Ukrainian military officials and confidential internal Ukrainian assessments obtained by The Washington Post.
russia’s jamming of the guidance systems of modern Western weapons, including Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, which can fire some U.S.-made rockets with a range of up to 50 miles, has eroded Ukraine’s ability to defend its territory and has left officials in Kyiv urgently seeking help from the Pentagon to obtain upgrades from arms manufacturers.
Six months ago, after Ukrainians reported the problem, Washington simply stopped providing Excalibur shells because of the high failure rate, the Ukrainian officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter. In other cases, such as aircraft-dropped bombs called JDAMs, the manufacturer provided a patch and Ukraine continues to use them.
russia’s ability to combat the high-tech munitions has far-reaching implications for Ukraine and its Western supporters — potentially providing a blueprint for adversaries such as China and Iran — and it is a key reason Moscow’s forces have regained the initiative and are advancing on the battlefield.
The success rate for the U.S.-designed Excalibur shells, for example, fell sharply over a period of months — to less than 10 percent hitting their targets — before Ukraine’s military abandoned them last year, according to the confidential Ukrainian assessments.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/24/russia-jamming-us-weapons-ukraine/
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The report on heating capability for next winter is very concerning, along with the electricity supply of course. I hope that Biden will relent on the long range limits of using US weapons in Russia, especially shooting down the aircraft that launch cruise missiles while over Russian territory.
This war is demonstrating the continued dramatic cost reduction of effective weapons, particularly small drones and electronic countermeasures. Both sides have been inflicting numerous damaging strikes with relatively cheap drones, while disrupting some expensive weapons with ECM. Surveillance drones have pushed infantry forces back to camouflaged trench warfare. No one and no army escapes the laws of economics.
It suggests that this will bedevil even the best Western armed forces in coming years, causing sophisticated and expensive weapons to be used less often because of the risk of loss to opposing cheap weaponry. I’m sure there is much research and applied work being done on economically and reliably detecting and destroying low flying cheap drones.
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I hope that sophisticated weaponry is not rendered irrelevant in the future, since that will mean that nations who consider their subjects to be expendable (Russia, China, N Korea) will have a decided advantage in warfare, and will become aggressive.
But of course, hope is not a plan, and you could be right.
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I doubt it will happen in such stark terms. Practical countermeasures will be developed - but that will take time.
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Because of the blackouts, I've gone back to using a small battery powered homemade QRP radio when I don't have power, enjoying the lack of noise. Perhaps this is the only advantage when electricity is cut off for an entire area or even a city. My vertical cannot be called a very effective antenna, and although I hear a lot of DX, it is usually stations from Europe that answer me. However, it does allow for some interesting QSO to be made.
Again you have to plan what you need to do while there is electricity and what you can do when there is no electricity. Fortunately, although not always fast, the Internet and mobile communications remain. My laptop battery has been dead for a long time, so this doesn't matter to me, but for many others it's an opportunity to keep working.
The strictest electricity restrictions among all regions of Ukraine are planned in Kyiv and the region. Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, explained that this is due to the large amount of critical infrastructure in the city. In most regions, according to schedules, power outages are from 4 to 8 hours per day, and in Kyiv - from 9 hours in total. https://kyiv.novyny.live/u-kiievi-diiatimut-naizhorstkishi-vidkliuchennia-svitla-v-chomu-prichina-177202.html
Tonight there was only one attack on the Dnipro, but with damage and casualties. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/06/04/novyna/bezpeka/okupanty-vdaryly-raketamy-po-dnipru-ye-poraneni
There was information that Ukrainian troops struck russian military facilities in the Belgorod and Kursk regions on June 1 and 2. However, ISW analysts did not find any evidence that the Ukrainians used Western weapons for the strikes. https://tsn.ua/ato/zsu-vlashtuvali-seriyu-udariv-po-teritoriyi-rf-v-isw-ocinili-chi-bili-zahidnoyu-zbroyeyu-2592186.html
The Government of Ukraine plans to allow the mobilization of personnel of the State Emergency Service and the National Police. However, this situation has already caused dissatisfaction within the system. Critics of this decision even say that the crime situation in the country may worsen. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c877ypdxv3vo
Defense enterprises, which are recognized as critically important for the economy of Ukraine and can legally reserve to 100% of employees, call on the authorities not to mobilize officially employed workers during the reconciliation of data in the mobilization center.
More than forty enterprises, in an appeal to the Prime Minister, Ministers of Defense and Strategic Industries, as well as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, draw attention to the fact that, after the simultaneous entry into force of a number of legal and by-laws, the production potential of the domestic defense industry has been put in jeopardy.
In particular, after the employee reaches the age of 25, the company is obliged to check his military registration data with the mobilization center, and the employee must pass a military medical commission.
"There are rare cases when it is during this "transitional" period that the mobilization centers carry out the mobilization of the specified category of employees, although they have official evidence of their direct participation in the implementation of state defense contracts. Despite the participation of such specialists in the implementation of state contracts with the state customer in the field of defense and special importance for the military industry, immediately after passing the military medical commission, such employees are given a mobilization order without the possibility of making a reservation," - the heads of defense enterprises note. https://www.epravda.com.ua/news/2024/06/3/714597/
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Every day I think about two things - how can I earn money provided I cannot work for hire and considering restrictions on movement, and about reunification with my family, provided that the children cannot leave Poland, the wife cannot leave the children, and I can only leave Ukraine illegally with big risks. The worst thing is that I still do not lose hope for the end of the war and the subsequent restoration of Ukraine, in which I would like to stay to live and work.
And now all this can be scaled throughout the entire country and those who live in it. It is incredibly difficult for Ukrainians to fight both the russians and the authorities at the same time, and their strength is rapidly running out. I see Western support in the fight against the russians, but obviously no one will help the Ukrainians with the rest. But if you don't remove the cancer (the government), it will kill the organ (the state) and then the whole organism (the country). How can healthy cells survive in this situation?
On Monday, June 3, the Shevchenkivsky District Court of Kyiv allowed the transfer of the Gulliver shopping and entertainment complex to the management of the state agency for the management of seized assets, satisfying the corresponding request of the Prosecutor General's Office. Gulliver's representatives claim that this decision grossly violates the procedural and material norms of the law and actually means business seizure with the assistance of law enforcement and law enforcement agencies. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/sud-peredav-trts-gulliver-upravlinnya-arma-1717433315.html
Ukraine cannot wait for the end of the war to build its economy, so the US is investing in the development of the Ukrainian economy right now. This was stated by White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan during the Global Impact forum of officials and experts on June 3 in Washington.
He said that the US is "actively working to find and acquire additional air defense systems" to help protect Ukrainian skies from Russian attacks. "But on the other hand, you can't fight a war, a war of aggression that your neighbor has started and is waging on your territory, if you don't have the economy to generate the resources to keep your soldiers on the front lines," Sullivan explained. He added that "the idea that we can somehow support the military but not the economy defies everything we know about running an effective military campaign." https://www.holosameryky.com/a/sullivan-forum/7640612.html
Unfortunately, I do not see how this can be done without changing the state policy, and also by dismissing the last intelligent people who fight against corruption from public positions. Apparently, they are hiding from us the intentions of a new counteroffensive, given the number of mobilized troops who should reach the Ural Mountains at least. Then, after the capitulation of russia, all these temporary difficulties will really not matter, and Moscow's reparations will compensate for all the damage. It is obvious that such a stupid person like me is simply not able to appreciate all the wisdom and far-sightedness of our authorities. And all the things I don't understand are aimed at misleading the enemy, who should think that Ukraine is very weak and helpless.
Secrecy is already such that on the official website of the Embassy of Ukraine to the UK, a month after Zaluzhnyi's appointment as ambassador, the last statement was made by the previous ambassador. https://uk.mfa.gov.ua/en/timeline?&type=posts
By the way, everything is fine with diplomacy in Ukraine.
The leader of the Chinese Communist Party does not keep his word! Zelensky's speech angrily exposes Xi Jinping https://news.creaders.net/world/2024/06/02/2738142.html
The United States of America will be represented at the global "peace summit" by Vice President Kamala Harris, the White House announced officially on Monday, June 3. Harris, who will be joined by the US president's national security adviser Jake Sullivan, "will emphasize the commitment of the Joe Biden administration to support Ukraine's efforts to ensure a just and lasting peace," it said. https://www.dw.com/uk/zamist-bajdena-na-samit-miru-poide-kamala-harris-bilij-dim/a-69258063?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
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It looks like the threat from asymmetric warfare, automation/AI, and finally the object lessons from Ukraine are being acted upon in the US military-industrial-congressional complex. Better late than never. Unfortunately this doesn’t help Ukraine right now, but perhaps will in the near future.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/04/united-states-drones-pentagon-military-weapons-evolution/
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In recent days, there is no electricity in Kyiv for an average of 9 hours a day and the biggest problems are in business, and the population suffers because the refrigerators do not have time to cool food. It is a different story with high-rise buildings in which elevators do not work. Most Internet and mobile operators ensure the operation of their equipment during outages.
After turning on the electricity, everything turns on at the same time and the noise level even at 21 and 28 MHz is over S6, which makes it impossible to use the radio. So now I'm on the air only during blackouts.
Meanwhile, the law on the use of the English language in Ukraine was adopted. The law establishes the status of English as one of the languages of international communication in Ukraine. Among other things, the law defines the categories of positions for which candidates are required to speak English, regulates the peculiarities of the use of the English language in the work of authorities, local self-government bodies, in the fields of education, culture, transport, health care, etc. https://focus.ua/uk/ukraine/650320-rada-priynyala-zakon-pro-angliysku-movu-hto-ne-zmozhe-vlashtuvatisya-na-robotu-bez-jiji-znannya
It reminds me of a similar situation when many years ago civil servants were required to confirm their knowledge of Ukrainian. The necessary certificates were simply purchased by all those who wished.
Another mysterious death during mobilization. On June 4, a local resident, 32-year-old Serhiy Kovalchuk, was buried in Baranivka. On May 29, a man with multiple injuries in a coma was taken to the Zvyagel hospital, where he died in a few days. The family claims that they have information that Serhiy was beaten in a local mobilization center. The Zhytomyr Regional Mobilization Center denies this information and says that the man died as a result of an epileptic attack. The police are investigating.
https://suspilne.media/amp/zhytomyr/761217-na-zitomirsini-pohovali-32-ricnogo-colovika-rodina-zaavlae-so-jogo-pobili-v-tck/
A murky story. If he was epileptic, why was he taken to the mobilization center? If he died of an epileptic attack, why did he have so many fractures and bruises?
Yesterday, my friend told me that another mutual friend of ours lost a leg at the front. He worked in the same bank as her and went to the front as a volunteer. I once considered him as a candidate for my team and I don't know if he found a job then. Maybe that's why he joined the army. In any case, it is good that he at least remained alive.
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On the eve of the peace summit in Switzerland and observing what is happening now, I remember what goals pootin announced in 2022, starting another invasion of Ukraine - "denazification, demilitarisation and its neutral status". https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67711802
This can be understood in a broad sense as a change of power, the destruction of the army and on-joining NATO. Now it looks like they will finally get it. The fact that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO has actually been confirmed by Biden https://time.com/6984968/joe-biden-transcript-2024-interview/ , the destruction of the army through the use of weapons and soldiers, which will not be replenished, is in the process. Given the destruction of energy and the economy, a change of power is also not far off. Plus, they have already received additional territory.
It is not clear to me how Ukraine is going to achieve its terms - https://www.president.gov.ua/storage/j-files-storage/01/19/53/32af8d644e6cae41791548fc82ae2d8e_1691483767.pdf
Rockstar entrances are designed to demand attention, and that is precisely what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s did when he arrived at the Shangri-La hotel to attend the premier Asian defense summit in Singapore. In his trademark green T-shirt and military trousers, flanked by bodyguards, it was as if the Taylor Swift of defense and security had descended onto the foreign policy stage.
He’d come to sell the idea that Asia needs to join Ukraine in its life-or-death fight for democracy against autocracy. But his pitch fell flat. Perhaps it was always destined to fail: Zelenskiy and his Western partners have long ignored that Asia could provide support to Ukraine in the face of russia’s war. It is now too little, too late.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-05/zelenskiy-s-bid-for-asian-support-in-russia-war-falls-flat?srnd=politics-vp
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I watched the discussion of the top managers of the largest Ukrainian investment funds about investments during the war, major deals and the success of portfolio companies, plans for 2024 and what needs to be done to improve the investment climate in Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VA9FszGCn0M
From their stories, I understood that most of their investments are not related to material assets in Ukraine, and investing in general is severely limited not only by the war, but also by legislation that does not protect the minority investor and which lacks many necessary stock market tools. Foreign funds not only do not plan any investments, but do not even consider the need to have local representatives. What I liked most was the answer to the question of how best to invest 10-20 thousand dollars - it’s best to invest it in yourself, so that it becomes a multiplier in the future. Therefore, I continue to invest all my time and resources in the education of myself and my children.
I also found Ray Dalio's book "Principles: Life & Work" extremely interesting and useful. I knew a lot of things before, but it’s always useful to look at yourself critically and remind yourself of what you really want and how you’re going to achieve it.
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Every day I think about two things - how can I earn money provided I cannot work for hire and considering restrictions on movement, and about reunification with my family, provided that the children cannot leave Poland, the wife cannot leave the children, and I can only leave Ukraine illegally with big risks. The worst thing is that I still do not lose hope for the end of the war and the subsequent restoration of Ukraine, in which I would like to stay to live and work.
And now all this can be scaled throughout the entire country and those who live in it. It is incredibly difficult for Ukrainians to fight both the russians and the authorities at the same time, and their strength is rapidly running out. I see Western support in the fight against the russians, but obviously no one will help the Ukrainians with the rest. But if you don't remove the cancer (the government), it will kill the organ (the state) and then the whole organism (the country). How can healthy cells survive in this situation?
On Monday, June 3, the Shevchenkivsky District Court of Kyiv allowed the transfer of the Gulliver shopping and entertainment complex to the management of the state agency for the management of seized assets, satisfying the corresponding request of the Prosecutor General's Office. Gulliver's representatives claim that this decision grossly violates the procedural and material norms of the law and actually means business seizure with the assistance of law enforcement and law enforcement agencies. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/sud-peredav-trts-gulliver-upravlinnya-arma-1717433315.html
Ukraine cannot wait for the end of the war to build its economy, so the US is investing in the development of the Ukrainian economy right now. This was stated by White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan during the Global Impact forum of officials and experts on June 3 in Washington.
He said that the US is "actively working to find and acquire additional air defense systems" to help protect Ukrainian skies from Russian attacks. "But on the other hand, you can't fight a war, a war of aggression that your neighbor has started and is waging on your territory, if you don't have the economy to generate the resources to keep your soldiers on the front lines," Sullivan explained. He added that "the idea that we can somehow support the military but not the economy defies everything we know about running an effective military campaign." https://www.holosameryky.com/a/sullivan-forum/7640612.html
Unfortunately, I do not see how this can be done without changing the state policy, and also by dismissing the last intelligent people who fight against corruption from public positions. Apparently, they are hiding from us the intentions of a new counteroffensive, given the number of mobilized troops who should reach the Ural Mountains at least. Then, after the capitulation of russia, all these temporary difficulties will really not matter, and Moscow's reparations will compensate for all the damage. It is obvious that such a stupid person like me is simply not able to appreciate all the wisdom and far-sightedness of our authorities. And all the things I don't understand are aimed at misleading the enemy, who should think that Ukraine is very weak and helpless.
Secrecy is already such that on the official website of the Embassy of Ukraine to the UK, a month after Zaluzhnyi's appointment as ambassador, the last statement was made by the previous ambassador. https://uk.mfa.gov.ua/en/timeline?&type=posts
By the way, everything is fine with diplomacy in Ukraine.
The leader of the Chinese Communist Party does not keep his word! Zelensky's speech angrily exposes Xi Jinping https://news.creaders.net/world/2024/06/02/2738142.html
The United States of America will be represented at the global "peace summit" by Vice President Kamala Harris, the White House announced officially on Monday, June 3. Harris, who will be joined by the US president's national security adviser Jake Sullivan, "will emphasize the commitment of the Joe Biden administration to support Ukraine's efforts to ensure a just and lasting peace," it said. https://www.dw.com/uk/zamist-bajdena-na-samit-miru-poide-kamala-harris-bilij-dim/a-69258063?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
It’s astounding how poorly-thought-out these policies are, by Z and his staff, with apparently no consideration given to their unintended consequences. But, he was an entertainer, so why would we be surprised? Especially since his rhetoric probably encouraged the invasion to begin with.
It is easier to understand why a country with no democratic history would make foolish choices regarding leadership, sadder still and more puzzling is why the US does so. Here we have dismal choices, two deeply unpopular and at best only semi-competent candidates, and a potential replacement (VP) who is has all the gravitas of a giggling schoolgirl. I am disgusted with US politics in a bipartisan way.
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I see an even bigger problem than everything that is happening is that few people ask why all this is happening. And if no one asks questions, this means tacit consent.
Lately I've been making joint video calls with Colin and Dave, who are helping me, my friend Alexander and my son Seva learn English. My friend Alexander is still very weak, but his interest does not wane. Seva is able to carry on a conversation and despite the age difference, we discuss a wide variety of issues with interest. Also, after lessons, I separately explain to Alexander everything we talked about. The most surprising thing is how little people know about other societies and how different their attitudes are to certain issues. Therefore, I believe that learning a foreign language not only allows you to read or speak another language, but also to learn another culture and look at yourself and your country from a different perspective. I think that many problems in this world are precisely due to people’s complete misunderstanding of each other. Add to this the manipulation and distortion by propaganda that you are likely to encounter in mainstream media in your native language.
Today there is electricity all day, which is already perceived as something unusual. Yesterday there was a big missile attack, which caused a big fire at an enterprise not far from Kyiv. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/e-vluchannya-shakhediv-na-kiivshchini-gorit-promislove-pidpriemstvo-zaluchili-pozhezhniy-potyag
Representatives of the Ministry of Defense and mobilization centers ignored the meeting of the temporary investigative commission established in the Verkhovna Rada, which examines possible cases of violations in their activities, and in particular, during mobilization. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-predstavnyky-minoborony-zasidannia-tsk/32983025.html
After the President's veto, the Verkhovna Rada removed the norm that proposed to release people for not informing about the presence of relatives who remained in the temporarily occupied territory. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/302676-verkhovnaya-rada-posle-veto-prezidenta-ubrala-normu-kotoroy-predlagali-uvolnyat-lyudey-za-nepredyavlenie-rodstvennikov-ostavshikhsya-na-vremenno-okkupirovannoy-territorii
The successes of Ukrainian diplomacy are again “pleasant”:
President Volodymyr Zelensky once again emphasized the impossibility of territorial concessions of the russian federation to end the war during his speech before the National Assembly of France.https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/302704-my-ne-imeem-prava-proigrat-zelenskiy-otverg-vozmozhnost-territorialnykh-ustupok-rf-dlya-zaversheniya-voyny
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres will not be present at the peace summit on Ukraine, which will be held on June 15-16. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/gensek-oon-poyide-samit-miru-ukrayini-1717782893.html
Argentina's President Javier Millay will most likely not attend the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15-16, as he wants to be in his country during national holidays. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/el-presidente-acorta-su-gira-europea-y-no-participara-de-la-reunion-del-g7-de-italia-ni-de-la-cumbre-nid06062024/
The newly appointed Ambassador of Ukraine to Great Britain, Valery Zaluzhnyi, is already completing preparations for the start of diplomatic work in the United Kingdom, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an interview with Ukrinform. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/3872569-zaluznij-uze-zaversue-pidgotovku-do-roboti-u-britanii-kuleba.html
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is scrapping plans to set up a five-year fund of military aid for Ukraine after facing pushback from alliance members, and is instead asking countries to keep up their current contributions, people familiar with the matter said. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-07/nato-scales-back-road-map-for-ukraine-aid-plan-after-pushback
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Outages shroud Ukraine as russian strikes on power plants take their toll. After an attack over the weekend, the state electricity company, Ukrenergo, said electricity rationing would be needed throughout the country. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/06/ukraine-kyiv-power-blackouts-war/
Explosions and fires happen when people use self-made batteries and inverters. https://mykyivregion.com.ua/news/u-sofiyivskii-borshhagivci-u-bagatopoverxivci-vibuxnuv-akumulyator-foto
My neighbors maybe also have got poor quality inverters and chargers as the noise level has doubled in a week.
On Saturday, June 8, during the preparations for KyivPride, the mobilization center workers arrived at the event venue and started checking documents and tried to pick up men who did not have the necessary documents with them. https://www.stopcor.org/ukr/section-suspilstvo/news-ttsk-tisne-na-prajd-ruh-v-ukraini-kyivppride-pro-perevirku-dokumentiv-08-06-2024.html
The Kremlin leader said he did not rule out changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine: the document which sets out the conditions under which russia would use nuclear weapons. “This doctrine is a living tool and we are carefully watching what is happening in the world around us and do not exclude making changes to this doctrine. This is also related to the testing of nuclear weapons.” And he delivered a warning to those European countries who’ve been supporting Ukraine: russia’s has “many more [tactical nuclear weapons] than there are on the European continent, even if the United States brings theirs over.” “Europe does not have a developed [early warning system],” he added. “In this sense they are more or less defenceless.”
Earlier this week, at a meeting with international news agency chiefs in St Petersburg, pootin suggested that russia might supply advanced conventional long-range weapons to others to strike Western targets. This was his response to NATO allies allowing Ukraine to strike russian territory with Western-supplied weapons. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn00e422yr2o
Bloomberg is full of optimism and believes that Putin is losing opportunities for a breakthrough. For months, russia’s army has made only limited gains on the battlefield against Ukrainian troops starved of weapons and ammunition. That’s a growing challenge for pootin as his military’s advantage starts to erode. With Kyiv now taking delivery of billions of dollars in fresh arms from its US and European allies, the window for a russian breakthrough is narrowing even as it continues to fire missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities including energy infrastructure. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-07/nato-scales-back-road-map-for-ukraine-aid-plan-after-pushback?srnd=homepage-europe
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As Zelensky’s first elected term drew to a close, senior government, military, law enforcement and diplomatic sources, many of whom requested anonymity, expressed alarm at his growing dependence on Andriy Yermak, his chief of staff, who is accused of amassing personal power and usurping democratic processes.
Since the introduction of martial law in 2022, which enables Zelensky to remain in office until the war’s end, Yermak’s authority has surpassed that of all of Ukraine’s elected officials bar the president. Some sources went so far as to describe him as the “de facto head of state” or “Ukraine’s vice-president” in a series of interviews.
Diplomatic sources complained that he exercised complete control over access to the president, with G7 ambassadors who hoped for an audience presented with Yermak instead.
Military officials, meanwhile, have accused Yermak, 52, of keeping General Valery Zaluzhny away from the president, and eventually orchestrating his dismissal as head of the armed forces in February. Yermak, they claim, considered Zaluzhny a rival to his authority.
Government insiders also blamed Yermak for the sacking of the deputy prime minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, last month after he reported efforts by MPs in Zelensky’s party to bribe him.
Both the general and the deputy prime minister, who was in charge of Ukraine’s infrastructure, were widely respected for their integrity, competence and independence.
Concern is mounting that Zelensky is increasingly reliant on a handful of sycophantic domestic voices, a fear made more acute as the number of officials with direct access to the president declines, while Yermak’s team grows.
https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/court-zelensky-ukraine-rocked-by-aides-thirst-for-power-57z9q8fwf
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As Zelensky’s first elected term drew to a close, senior government, military, law enforcement and diplomatic sources, many of whom requested anonymity, expressed alarm at his growing dependence on Andriy Yermak, his chief of staff, who is accused of amassing personal power and usurping democratic processes.
Since the introduction of martial law in 2022, which enables Zelensky to remain in office until the war’s end, Yermak’s authority has surpassed that of all of Ukraine’s elected officials bar the president. Some sources went so far as to describe him as the “de facto head of state” or “Ukraine’s vice-president” in a series of interviews.
Diplomatic sources complained that he exercised complete control over access to the president, with G7 ambassadors who hoped for an audience presented with Yermak instead.
Military officials, meanwhile, have accused Yermak, 52, of keeping General Valery Zaluzhny away from the president, and eventually orchestrating his dismissal as head of the armed forces in February. Yermak, they claim, considered Zaluzhny a rival to his authority.
Government insiders also blamed Yermak for the sacking of the deputy prime minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, last month after he reported efforts by MPs in Zelensky’s party to bribe him.
Both the general and the deputy prime minister, who was in charge of Ukraine’s infrastructure, were widely respected for their integrity, competence and independence.
Concern is mounting that Zelensky is increasingly reliant on a handful of sycophantic domestic voices, a fear made more acute as the number of officials with direct access to the president declines, while Yermak’s team grows.
https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/court-zelensky-ukraine-rocked-by-aides-thirst-for-power-57z9q8fwf
It is discouraging. And in the US, anyone who brings up the idea that corruption and anti-democratic tendencies of Z and company exist and should be discouraged, is immediately accused of being in collusion with Russia or of being the victim of disinformation. It's difficult to have a rational discussion about Ukraine, these days.
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It is discouraging. And in the US, anyone who brings up the idea that corruption and anti-democratic tendencies of Z and company exist and should be discouraged, is immediately accused of being in collusion with Russia or of being the victim of disinformation. It's difficult to have a rational discussion about Ukraine, these days.
I am sure that now you, without being a Ukrainian, are one of the most knowledgeable people about what is happening in Ukraine!
I think that the ability to read everything that is written on Ukrainian forums would upset you even more...
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It is discouraging. And in the US, anyone who brings up the idea that corruption and anti-democratic tendencies of Z and company exist and should be discouraged, is immediately accused of being in collusion with Russia or of being the victim of disinformation. It's difficult to have a rational discussion about Ukraine, these days.
I am sure that now you, without being a Ukrainian, are one of the most knowledgeable people about what is happening in Ukraine!
I think that the ability to read everything that is written on Ukrainian forums would upset you even more...
I suspect you are correct about what’s on Ukrainian forums! :(
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It is discouraging. And in the US, anyone who brings up the idea that corruption and anti-democratic tendencies of Z and company exist and should be discouraged, is immediately accused of being in collusion with Russia or of being the victim of disinformation. It's difficult to have a rational discussion about Ukraine, these days.
I am sure that now you, without being a Ukrainian, are one of the most knowledgeable people about what is happening in Ukraine!
I think that the ability to read everything that is written on Ukrainian forums would upset you even more...
Please point us to a couple of representative Ukrainian forums. I’d like to read some of the posts.
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Please point us to a couple of representative Ukrainian forums. I’d like to read some of the posts.
This is a very difficult task, since on most forums threads on politics are closed to guests and moderators quickly delete dangerous posts. On unmoderated forums, the amount of spam far outweighs useful information. Also, few people use the literary language and online translators cannot adequately translate it. I encountered this when I tried to read Chinese forums - I didn’t understand anything. You can try here https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/topic/237244-rossiyane-nam-prinesli-voynu/page/6739/#comment-5408807 , although I have ignored most of the writers there.
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Some analysts believe Kyiv is buying the west time on the precipice of a world war https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/08/putin-war-ukraine-forgotten-lessons-of-history-europe
You can talk about anything, but no one knows for sure how it all might end. The lack of unity between countries in both camps leaves too much variation. Again, there are fears of a possible nuclear strike by russia due to permission to fire Western weapons at targets on its territory. I don't rule it out. For example, Kharkiv can become Hiroshima, even if this is the last thing Putin has time to do. History knows many irrational actions of those who quite successfully rose to power and held it for many years. But everything ends someday.
It seems that the West has already unequivocally decided that Ukraine will not be another Czechoslovakia, and even if the situation at the front sharply worsens, it will take adequate measures to prevent a russian victory.
Therefore, I am more concerned about what is happening in Ukraine. And in Ukraine, it seems that a change of power is being prepared and some people are already trying to distance themselves from this government and look for a place in the ranks of the next one.
The head of the State Agency for Reconstruction and Development of Infrastructure, Mustafa Nayem, announced that he is resigning from his position. The prime minister accuses him of poor work and lack of reporting. In turn, among the reasons for his dismissal, Nayem cited the cancellation of the budget for road restoration and maintenance projects, the long approval of documents for the payment of protective structures, fortifications or restoration, and the fact that contractors are not paid on time. He also stated that after the dismissal of Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, it became impossible to implement some projects, as well as that his participation in the Conference on the Restoration of Ukraine in Berlin was cancelled. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/302899-mustafa-nayem-zayavil-chto-uvolnyaetsya-s-dolzhnosti-glavy-agentstva-vosstanovleniya
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/czkkp81jyy2o
Therefore, disputes within the government reached the highest level and became public.
The first deputy director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, Gizo Uhlava, was also removed from his post. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1012300-uglavu-pozbavyly-majzhe-vsih-povnovazhen-ale-ne-vidstoronyly-vid-posady
I still did not understand what exactly happened there, but it is difficult to recognize the effective activity of this body.
Other people went to the Berlin Conference on the Restoration of Ukraine https://segodnya.novyny.live/konferentsiia-z-vidbudovi-ukrayini-v-berlini-zelenskii-zatverdiv-sklad-delegatsiyi-178770.html , and the president made a surprising statement. He stated that 9 GW of capacity was destroyed in Ukraine, which is approximately half of Ukraine's energy needs. At the same time, the energy industry should restore up to 1 GW of electricity production by the end of this year thanks to gas shunting generation. Instead, building 1 GW of generation by the end of the year and 4 GW in the coming years in Ukraine is an impossible task. According to Olena Zerkal, ex-deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for European integration, adviser to the Minister of Energy of Ukraine, such statements of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi are not based on real technical possibilities. Gas generation is not built within six months from the date of application. Finding the turbines, determining the installation location, making the design, connecting them, training the teams to operate them takes a year under the best conditions. In Ukraine, the conditions are not the best: the turbines that were brought last year have not yet been started. https://zn.ua/ukr/energetics/pobuduvati-1-hvt-heneratsiji-do-kintsja-roku-i-4-hvt-u-blizhchi-roki-je-nemozhlivim-zerkal.html
The United States provides $824 million to support Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Penny Pritzker, the US special representative for the economic recovery of Ukraine, stated this today in Berlin during a conference on the recovery of Ukraine. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/3873768-pricker-u-berlini-ssa-nadaut-ukraini-824-miljoni-na-pidtrimku-energetiki.html
"Ukraine has completed all the steps that we have determined. And that is why we believe that the EU should start accession negotiations with Ukraine by the end of this month," said the Head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen at the same conference. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/06/11/7187875/
The Biden administration will allow a Ukrainian military unit with a checkered past to use U.S. weaponry, the State Department said Monday, having lifted a ban imposed years ago amid concerns in Washington about the group’s origins. The Azov Brigade, known for its tenacious but ultimately unsuccessful defense of the Azovstal steel mill in Mariupol early in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is regarded as a particularly effective fighting force. But it was barred about a decade ago from using American arms because U.S. officials determined that some of its founders espoused racist, xenophobic and ultranationalist views, and U.N. human rights officials accused the group of humanitarian violations.
Now the brigade, a one-time volunteer militia absorbed into the Ukrainian National Guard in 2015, will have access to the same U.S. military assistance as any other unit. The policy shift was disclosed as Kyiv starts the summer fighting season and faces down a Russian military that has intensified its pressure on objectives in eastern Ukraine and the country’s energy infrastructure.
“After thorough review, Ukraine’s 12th Special Forces Azov Brigade passed Leahy vetting as carried out by the U.S. Department of State,” the agency said in a statement, referring to the “Leahy Law” that prevents U.S. military assistance from going to foreign units credibly found to have committed major human rights violations. It is named for former senator Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.), who wrote the legislation. The State Department found “no evidence” of such violations, its statement says. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/10/azov-brigade-ukraine-us-weapons/
President Andrzej Duda signed an amendment to the law on assistance to citizens of Ukraine. Among other things, it provides for the extension of the legality of stay of Ukrainian refugees until September 30, 2025, the extension of access to medical services, family and social benefits, benefits paid by the social insurance institution, as well as the possibility of staying in collective means of accommodation. https://www.pap.pl/ua/ukrainian/news/prezident-polschi-pidpisav-popravku-do-zakonu-pro-dopomogu-gromadyanam-ukraini-0
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In Transcarpathia, a truck with 32 Ukrainians broke through the border to Hungary. https://tsn.ua/exclusive/na-zakarpatti-vantazhivka-z-ukrayincyami-prorvalasya-cherez-kordon-do-ugorschini-stalo-vidomo-hto-buv-v-avto-2597361.html
A scandal broke out in Odesa involving ambulance workers and the mobilization center. The incident began when an ambulance driver contacted one of the district mobilization centers to update his credentials. After that, he could not leave the building, because the institution refused to let him go. Due to the stress, the man's well-being worsened, and an ambulance was called to the scene. However, the medics who arrived on call were also not released. A few hours later, the medics were freed thanks to the efforts of their colleagues, who arrived at the scene with sirens on and staged a protest. During this time, there were several skirmishes between medics and the military. https://360ua.news/v-odesi-tczk-zatrymav-medykiv-shvydkoyi-dopomogy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=v-odesi-tczk-zatrymav-medykiv-shvydkoyi-dopomogy
https://informator.ua/uk/biyka-bilya-viyskkomatu-v-odesi-medikiv-shvidkoji-yaki-prijihali-na-viklik-ne-vipuskali-z-tck
The video shows a fight https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OM1DaHE_XKQ
The mobilization center published a denial, accusing the medics that they allegedly did not provide documents that they were medics. https://www.facebook.com/OOTCKSP/posts/pfbid0hnDAyzLNYAaAjvUtsuJf5aM2s6SoMdazbpvjKiDaAnYRaeL37CzJLv5puxPowrdl
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Please point us to a couple of representative Ukrainian forums. I’d like to read some of the posts.
This is a very difficult task, since on most forums threads on politics are closed to guests and moderators quickly delete dangerous posts. On unmoderated forums, the amount of spam far outweighs useful information. Also, few people use the literary language and online translators cannot adequately translate it. I encountered this when I tried to read Chinese forums - I didn’t understand anything. You can try here https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/topic/237244-rossiyane-nam-prinesli-voynu/page/6739/#comment-5408807 , although I have ignored most of the writers there.
You were correct, it is very difficult because of historical or geographical references, slang, idioms and curse words. Some I could understand from context or were well known enough to find with Google.
What is Шоніясна? ( machine translated to English as “shoniasna” probably a transliteration. )
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You were correct, it is very difficult because of historical or geographical references, slang, idioms and curse words. Some I could understand from context or were well known enough to find with Google.
What is Шоніясна? ( machine translated to English as “shoniasna” probably a transliteration. )
Add to the fact that some write in russian, but Google doesn’t understand this, then it makes even less sense.
Шоніясна is distorted from “what is not clear?” In this form, it emphasizes sarcasm and indicates that I am putting the opposite meaning into what was written earlier, considering it absurd. Probably too difficult. By the way, it was the problems with translation in general, that made me look differently at how to write so that others can understand you in other languages in other cultures. Often, during translation, not only the meaning and many cultural things are lost, but also misunderstandings arise. Therefore, it is better to read books in the original.
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On the night of June 12, russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine. Tu-95MS bombers launched cruise missiles, Shaheds attacked the rear regions all night and approached the capital. The main target of the night strike is Kyiv and Vasylkiv near it. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ckddzryl4xlo
In the Kyiv region, the extinguishing of a fire that broke out at one of the industrial enterprises as a result of an enemy attack has been going on for the third day.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/993581.html
There is a large oil depot there, which was burning all day, and I heard the work of air defense and the sounds of explosions and watched through the window.
Missile attacks continue and half of the missiles reach their targets today.
On the night of June 14, russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine. Tu-95MS bombers (about five) launched cruise missiles, Shaheds attacked the rear regions all night. The main target of the night attack was Starokostyantiniv military airport near Khmelnytskyi and Lviv. Several ballistic missiles hit Zaporozhye. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c90079943xdo
There was also a massive attack last night. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3874751-ppo-zbila-sim-rosijskih-krilatih-raket-ta-17-sahediv.html
US President Joe Biden approved the provision of another Patriot complex to Ukraine, which is currently located in Poland. However, Warsaw did not agree to transfer this air defense system to Kyiv. https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Gosc-Radia-ZET/szef-bbn-informacje-niepokojace-poprosilem-o-spotkanie-z-odpowiednikiem-z-usa-13062024
The Defense Forces of Ukraine actively use ATACMS missiles to destroy russian air defense in the temporarily occupied Crimea. Ukrainian missile attacks destroyed parts of four or five S-400 batteries. Some russian observers are worried that much worse attacks are coming. If the Ukrainians are following American strike doctrine, attacks on air-defense batteries come first. After that, “aviation based on the F-16 comes into play, under the wings of which there is a wide range of ammunition https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/06/12/ukrainian-atacms-rockets-are-blowing-up-russias-best-s-400-air-defenses-as-fast-as-the-s-400s-can-deploy-to-crimea/
Ukraine managed to stop the offensive of the russian army near Kharkiv, but in Donetsk region, the russians broke through the defense of the armed forces and moved towards the administrative borders of the region. The russian offensive in the Kharkiv region began a month ago, in the first two days the russian army was able to advance 7-10 km deep into Ukrainian territory in the direction of the village of Liptsi and the city of Vovchansk. But the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine mobilized reserves, received permission from the Western allies to strike russian territory with their weapons, and thus effectively put an end to all offensive hopes of the enemy. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cnee88yyw1wo
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A large group of men who were trying to get abroad illegally at the same time were found in a truck intended for the transportation of grain by the border guards yesterday. https://dpsu.gov.ua/ua/news/Zernovozom-do-kordonu-prikordonniki-Izmailskogo-zagonu-zupinili-na-Odeshchini-furu-z-41-pasazhirom-/
If you are not currently in Ukraine, we strongly recommend against all travel to Ukraine by U.S. citizen males aged 18 to 60 who also have Ukrainian citizenship or a claim to Ukrainian citizenship and who do not wish to stay in Ukraine indefinitely. There is an extremely high risk you will not be allowed to depart, even with a U.S. passport. We remind all Americans of the State Department’s Level 4: Do Not Travel warning for Ukraine. For further information, see State Department websites for what you should know as a dual citizen traveler, and what we can and cannot do during a crisis.
US Embassy in Ukraine https://ua.usembassy.gov/message-for-u-s-citizens-elimination-of-residence-abroad-exception-to-dual-citizen-departure/
For the economic recovery of Ukraine, more than 4.5 million able-bodied citizens are needed, but their number in 2024 will decrease by 40% compared to 2021, said Olga Pishchulina, a leading expert of social and gender programs at the Razumkov Center, during the discussion "Labor resource challenges for the recovery of Ukraine ".
https://slovoproslovo.info/ukraini-potribno-4-5-mln-pratsezdatnyh-hromadyan-dlya-vidnovlennya-ekonomiky
I have a hard time understanding these numbers and how they relate to reality. In general, it seems to me that official statistics operate on unreliable information due to the fact that it is impossible to establish the real number of the population in Ukraine and what part of it works officially.
Minister of Justice Denys Malyuska called the deputy head of the Office of the President Oleh Tatarov "an extremely experienced professional" https://hromadske.ua/polityka/225838-maliuska-tatarov-dosvidchenyy-profesional?traffic_source=ukr.net
This is a rather controversial person who worked in the Ministry of Internal Affairs during the time of former President Yanukovych and who is associated with the actions of the authorities during the Maidan - the Ukrainian revolution. Yanukovych himself then fled to russia, many of his associates hid during Poroshenko's presidency, but returned to power after Zelensky's election. Many believe that the new government has returned much of what was under Yanokovich.
Much was written about Tatarov in the press https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-skhemy-tatarov-zakharchenko-yanukovych/31107652.html
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It's also a busy time on the international stage.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said that the Allies should officially invite Ukraine to NATO, although it will be able to become a full member only after the end of the war. https://www.rmf24.pl/fakty/swiat/news-zaproszenie-ukrainy-do-nato-konieczne-duda-na-szczycie-panst,nId,7568408#crp_state=1
The number of countries and organizations that have confirmed their participation in the Peace Summit in Switzerland has decreased from 93 to 78. Several diplomats of the EU countries, familiar with the course of preparations for the peace summit in Switzerland, informed RFE/RL about this on condition of anonymity. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-dyplomaty-es-kilkist-uchasnykiv-samitu-myru-znyzhuietsia/32988638.html
The peace summit, which will be held this weekend in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, even before its start, is causing extremely controversial comments in Ukraine and beyond. A few days before the opening of the event, it is impossible to say exactly who will take part in it, what wording will be contained in its final document, as well as what consequences it can or should lead to. However, the initiator of the summit, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, declares that its holding can already be called a victory for Ukraine. The organizers - representatives of the Swiss authorities - say that this event can hardly be called the beginning of the peace process. However, he is quite willing to take the first step towards this. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cqllg1p4yyvo
China, skipping a weekend summit on a peace plan for Ukraine, has been lobbying governments for its alternative plan, 10 diplomats said, with one calling Beijing's campaign a "subtle boycott" of the global meeting in Switzerland. Moscow, which was not invited to Lucerne, has dismissed the meeting as futile. China, which has close ties to Russia, says it will not attend the conference because it does not meet Beijing's requirements, including the participation of Russia. After China said it was not going to the Lucerne summit, Zelenskiy accused Beijing of helping Moscow undermine the meeting, an accusation China's foreign ministry denied.
Responding to Reuters' questions, China's foreign ministry said its position on the Swiss conference was "fair, just and open".
"China has been in close communication with relevant parties, including Switzerland and Ukraine, and encourages the equal participation of all parties at the conference as well as fair discussion of all plans," spokesperson Lin Jin told a routine briefing on Friday. Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said last week: "China sincerely hopes that a peace conference will not turn into a platform used to create bloc confrontation. Not attending it does not mean not supporting peace."
In Asia, U.S. allies the Philippines and Japan, as well as Thailand, Singapore and East Timor have confirmed their attendance. Malaysia has said it will abstain, as has Cambodia, which has close economic links to China. Cambodia's Senate President Hun Sen denied being pressured by Beijing to avoid the conference. Indonesia will send its ambassador in Bern. Vietnam has not made its position clear.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china-pushes-rival-ukraine-peace-plan-before-swiss-summit-diplomats-say-2024-06-13/
The G7 has agreed to use frozen Russian assets to raise $50bn (£39bn) for Ukraine to help it fight invading Russian forces.
US President Joe Biden said it was another reminder to Russia "that we're not backing down", but in Moscow President Vladimir Putin said the move was "theft" which would "not go unpunished". Also at the G7 summit in Italy, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Mr Biden signed a 10-year bilateral security deal between Ukraine and the US, hailed by Kyiv as "historic". The agreement envisages US military and training aid to Ukraine - but it does not commit Washington to send troops to fight for its ally. According to the White House, the security deal means Washington and Kyiv will work to build and maintain Ukraine's defence and deterrence capability, bolster the country's defence industrial base, and support economic recovery and energy security. The security deal also means that in the event of a future Russian armed attack against Ukraine, there will be consultation "at the highest levels to determine appropriate and necessary measures to support Ukraine and impose costs on Russia", the statement added. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cllldqyg19ro
russian President Vladimir pootin promised Friday to “immediately” order a ceasefire in Ukraine (opens in a new tab) and begin negotiations if Kyiv started withdrawing troops from the four regions annexed by Moscow in 2022 and renounced plans to join NATO. Ukraine responded by calling Putin's proposal "manipulative" and "absurd." https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/putin-pledges-a-ceasefire-in-ukraine-if-kyiv-withdraws-from-occupied-regions-and-drops-nato-bid-1.6926626
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First inexpensive armed NATO drone being produced in Germany:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/army-news-2024/first-battle-proven-fpv-drone-made-in-nato-presented-by-german-industry
It costs less than €1000 and has received good reports from battlefield use in Ukraine. It can be used about 5 times for other missions before being used as a suicide drone.
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First inexpensive armed NATO drone being produced in Germany:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/army-news-2024/first-battle-proven-fpv-drone-made-in-nato-presented-by-german-industry
It costs less than €1000 and has received good reports from battlefield use in Ukraine. It can be used about 5 times for other missions before being used as a suicide drone.
It is obvious that many such developments are carried out all over the world and it is difficult to find a better training ground for their testing than Ukraine.
It rains constantly and sometimes the electricity goes out, but overall the situation reminds me of an old joke.
Fishermen are sitting on the bank of the river - from a young man to an old grandfather. On the other side is a beach where several girls came to sunbathe. The youngest fisherman immediately threw down his fishing rods and swam to meet the girls.
A little older said: "I'll go look for a boat."
An even older one: "And I can see clearly from here!"
The older one: "If they need it, they will come themselves!"
Grandfather: "You're right! They're already sailing here!"
I no longer have the energy to sail or even look for a boat, and if I sail somewhere, I will find that no one needs me there and I am not capable of anything.
Between the thunderstorms and the blackouts, I made 30 QSO with the Japanese stations in the All Asian contest but I didn't feel satisfied.
The pride parade in Kyiv was like something surreal, although I don't understand what it should mean. As far as I know, Ukraine is a very tolerant country, in which the majority generally do not care who and how they identify themselves. https://enovosty.com/uk/news-ukr/news_kiev-ukr/full/1606-u-kiyevi-vidbuvsya-kiivprajd-pid-chas-yakogo-aktivisti-ruxu-za-tradicijni-cinnosti-vislovili-svij-protest-foto
Ukraine has a "clear plan" to build up to 1 GW of gas generation capacity already this year, President Volodymyr Zelensky said at a conference on the recovery of Ukraine in Berlin. On the other hand, many people in Ukraine consider such statements to be unrealistic and only time will tell what the situation with energy will actually be in the fall and winter. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cekk4yj0lj3o
In my opinion, on the condition that there will be no further destruction of the energy industry by missiles, the situation will be difficult, but stable. Although next week the situation will worsen due to planned repairs of nuclear power plants https://svitlo.novyny.live/vidkliuchennia-svitla-v-ukrenergo-poperedili-pro-skladnishu-situatsiiu-nastupnogo-tizhnia-180102.html and according to a bank survey, more than half of businesses may go bankrupt due to a power outage https://delo.ua/business/cerez-vidklyucennya-svitla-bilse-polovini-biznesiv-moze-zbankrutuvati-433419/
But it seems that the state does not care what will happen to the business as long as the west continues to give money.
From June 10 to 14, the National Bank sold $898 million, which is $203.3 million more than last week. At the same time, the National Bank bought 180,000 dollars during the week. In total, since the beginning of the year, the National Bank sold 12.893 billion dollars, while it bought 115.8 million dollars. According to the results of May 2024, the international reserves of Ukraine decreased by 7.9% - as of June 1, they amounted to 39,033.8 million US dollars. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/06/16/novyna/finansy/stalo-vidomo-skilky-valyuty-prodav-nbu-mizhbanku-tyzhden
The G7 has agreed to use frozen russian assets to raise $50bn (£39bn) for Ukraine to help it fight invading russian forces. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cllldqyg19ro
I am a little alarmed that the word "loan" is often mentioned, and the specific mechanism will be determined later.
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Such “loans” are often forgiven in a few years, or at the very least become far less of a concern over many decades of inflation. It’s much easier for a legislature to approve a “loan” than a gift, even if it is merely a fig leaf for what will ultimately become a gift.
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An interesting situation has arisen with the work of mobilization centers. Instead of eliminating the reasons for the violation of the law by their employees and bringing them to justice, the authorities decided to simply hide it. It seems that any information about their activities or attempts to record their activities will be considered a criminal offense. There are already reports of sentencing for spreading information about their work. https://yug.today/v-odeskomu-oblasnomu-ttsk-opryliudnyly-sudovi-vyroky-za-rozpovsiudzhennia-informatsii-pro-mistsia-vruchennia-povistok-abo-zaklyky-do-suprotyvu/ On the one hand, the activities of the army are classified, and on the other hand, this allows it to break the law with impunity, which ultimately leads to a loss of trust and the reluctance of the population to join its ranks, which further harms it.
At the same time, despite increased mobilization, there are constant reports of a shortage of soldiers at the front. https://gordonua.com/ukr/blogs/jurbutusov/pid-kupjanskom-3-tja-shturmova-brihada-zberihaje-bojezdatnist-ale-potrebuje-nehajnoho-popovnennja-jakshcho-joho-ne-bude-vtratitsja-vihidnij-rubizh-1710162.html
The Council of the European Union approved the extension of temporary protection for more than 4 million Ukrainians fleeing russia's war of aggression until March 4, 2026 https://www.unian.ua/world/u-yes-shvalili-prodovzhennya-timchasovogo-zahistu-dlya-ukrajinskih-bizhenciv-do-2026-roku-12665535.html
Either Europe expects that the war will last another 2 years or is taking measures to ensure that Ukrainians do not return to Ukraine having lost their legal basis to stay in Europe, regardless of when the war ends. Some find it unfair that the conditions of support in Europe are the same for those who lost their housing in the occupied territory and for those who rented out their apartments in western Ukraine to internal refugees and left for Europe.
80 countries and four organizations, including the Council of Europe, the European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament, supported the joint communique following the results of the Global Peace Summit - an international conference to find ways to peacefully resolve the armed conflict between russia and Ukraine.
Turkey is among the countries that signed the document. Earlier, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of this country, Hakan Fidan, spoke in favor of the presence of russia at the peace conference. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is not among the signatories, whose leading diplomat called on the parties to "difficult compromises". Thailand and Mexico also did not sign the communiqué.
India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates, all of whom have important trading relationships with Russia as members of the BRICS economic group, attended the weekend meeting but did not agree to sign the joint statement.
The document reaffirmed the signatories commitment to “refraining from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, the principles of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine, within their internationally recognized borders.”
The communique published on Sunday said that signatories had struck several other agreements. Among them were the principle that Ukraine to should be allowed its own nuclear power plants – including the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant – and that the Kremlin refrain from both the use of and the threat of using nuclear weapons. The sides also said that all children and civilians that were unlawfully displaced must be returned to Ukraine. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/16/europe/ukraine-peace-summit-switzerland-intl/index.html
"Defending Ukraine means uniting all the efforts of the international community to protect Ukraine. If russia does not agree to the terms, we will force it to surrender. We need to establish the minimum conditions for this discussion," said Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni. https://www.youtube.com/live/lHfR0rc_qOs
Words, words, words... I remember the old wisdom: “those who can, do, those who cannot, speak.”
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Such “loans” are often forgiven in a few years, or at the very least become far less of a concern over many decades of inflation. It’s much easier for a legislature to approve a “loan” than a gift, even if it is merely a fig leaf for what will ultimately become a gift.
Maybe. This will be clear when the time comes to repay debts. As a lawyer, I cannot help but pay attention to such things. Unfortunately, in politics, some borrow money, while others pay off their debts with their lives.
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Such “loans” are often forgiven in a few years, or at the very least become far less of a concern over many decades of inflation. It’s much easier for a legislature to approve a “loan” than a gift, even if it is merely a fig leaf for what will ultimately become a gift.
LONDON, June 17 (Reuters) - Ukraine has not been able to reach an agreement with a group of bondholders over restructuring some $20 billion of international debt during formal talks, it said on Monday, raising the spectre that the war-torn country might slip into default.
An agreement with holders of international bonds that allowed Ukraine to suspend payments after Russia's invasion of the country in 2022 ends in August.
Ukraine's Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said talks would continue and he expected the government to reach an agreement by Aug. 1.
The country's dollar-denominated eurobonds fell by as much as 1.7 cents in morning trading in London, though they recovered slightly by 1500 GMT. Near-term maturities are trading at deeply distressed levels between 26-30 cents on the dollar.
Formal talks with the ad-hoc bondholder committee have been underway for nearly two weeks, as Ukraine seeks to rework its debt in order to retain access to international markets while meeting International Monetary Fund (IMF) demands to restructure.
However, the government's proposal and a counter proposal by bondholders showed how far apart the parties are and the uphill struggle Ukraine will face to get the debt restructuring over the line in the coming weeks.
"Although Ukraine and the Ad Hoc Creditor Committee did not come to an agreement on restructuring terms during the consultation period, (they) will continue engagement and constructive discussions through their respective advisors," the government said in a statement, adding it would also continue bilateral discussions with other investors.
The government statement said the ad-hoc group controlled roughly 20% of outstanding bonds, but a source familiar with the situation told Reuters the committee did not intend to expand.
Finance Minister Marchenko said the country's economy was a "fragile balance" that hinged on consistent and substantial support from its partners. "Timely debt restructuring is a critical part of this support," he said. "Strong armies must be underpinned by strong economies to win wars."
Bondholders said the government's proposal had demanded a write down that was "significantly in excess" of the 20% expected by markets.
The proposal would "risk substantial damage to Ukraine's future investor base and core objective of re-accessing capital markets at the earliest opportunity", they added.
Ukraine could seek to extend the payment suspension beyond August, but prefers the more lasting solution of a full debt rework.
Ukraine does not strictly speaking have access to capital lending markets, but going into default could complicate potential funding avenues, including some multilateral and commercial lending.
Sources have also stressed that Ukraine is keen to avoid investors selling off its bonds to hedge funds and others less amenable to cooperative debt rework deals.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ukraine-bondholder-group-unable-reach-deal-formal-20-bln-debt-talks-2024-06-17/
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The heat gave way to rain, after which the heat came again. Power outages occur randomly and there are even rumors that generator owners will be fined for noise. But most likely they won’t do this.
However, the main topic of all conversations is mobilization, which even major foreign media periodically pay attention to. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cn00dpg5vz4o
Now this has led to the fact that there are no people either in the economy or in the army. In fact, there are enough people, but they don’t want to fight and work at risk of being mobilized. The authorities are responding by intensifying repression. I’m asking myself a question: if people don’t want to follow the rules set by the authorities, is the problem definitely in the people, and not in the authorities and their rules?
In Odesa, an 18-year-old boy committed a crime - robbery in order to avoid mobilization. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/v-odesi-yunak-zdiysniv-zlochin-schob-uniknuti-mobilizaciyi-podrobici-2602044.html
A strange story, considering that men are subject to forced mobilization only from the age of 25. Instead, they also write about other cases of mobilization of younger people who are forced to sign "voluntary" applications for joining the army.
Meanwhile, football players can afford to travel abroad at the expense of budget funds, while the poor feel like prisoners. https://football24.ua/rumuniya__ukrayina_onlayn_translyatsiya_matchu_yevro_2024_17_06_2024_n828846/
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A strange story, considering that men are subject to forced mobilization only from the age of 25.
I was wrong. According to deputy Fyodor Venislavsky, the law specifically used constructions that ambiguously interpreted the status of such people. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c2qqe5w433ko
Considering that all contradictions are interpreted in favor of the state, and officials are not held responsible for breaking the law, we can conclude that only those men who are over 60 years old or are abroad can consider themselves safe.
But the state continues to strengthen the western border and it is possible that the new iron curtain will be stronger than the fortifications in the east. https://varta1.com.ua/news/u-prikordonniy-zoni-na-zakarpatti-vodiyam-zaboronili-zupinyati-avtomobili-na-uzbichchi-dorig_382158.html
Although not well received at the time, the phrase iron curtain gained popularity as a shorthand reference to the division of Europe as the Cold War progressed. The Iron Curtain served to keep people in, and information out. People throughout the West eventually came to accept and use the metaphor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Curtain
Switzerland and Ukraine, which hosted the Peace Summit on June 15-16, called the event a success, but admitted that the meeting is not the beginning of the peace process, but only helps create conditions for possible negotiations on the end of russia's war against Ukraine. The Swiss government said it was ready to facilitate further diplomatic efforts for peace, including a willingness to ensure that the russian president would not be arrested on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court in March 2023. Switzerland, a member of the Rome Statute, is obliged to fulfill the order of the International Criminal Court against President pootin, in accordance with the case of the deportation of children to russia from the occupied Ukrainian territories. But in response to VOA's questions, Swiss Foreign Minister Ignatius Cassis said that even suspected war criminals could be granted immunity during the negotiations. https://www.holosameryky.com/a/shvejtsarija-peremovyny/7658805.html
In the new edition, the Procedure for the appointment and payment of one-time cash benefits for the death, disability or partial loss of working capacity of military personnel and police officers was laid out. With this document, the number of persons who can receive help from the government in the event of the death of a serviceman was increased: women or men who lived with a serviceman without registering a marriage; grandchildren of the fallen serviceman, if their parents are dead; children born after the death of a serviceman. In addition, the Ukrainian government announced the expansion of the criteria for cases where a one-time benefit is not paid. https://www.komersant.info/kabmin-rozshyryv-kolo-osib-iaki-mozhut-otrymaty-vyplaty-v-razi-zahybeli-viyskovoho/
The Italian government plans to provide Ukraine with a batch of long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles as part of the ninth aid package, reports Il Fatto Quotidiano with reference to informed sources. https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/in-edicola/articoli/2024/06/18/usa-vertice-atlantista-nel-9-pacchetto-i-missili-a-lunga-gittata-per-kiev/7591093/
69 special vehicles of various purposes were handed over to Ukrainian rescuers from partners from Great Britain, the USA, Japan and Estonia. It concerns 29 vehicles, including tankers, mobile control points, a pick-up truck and a ladder truck, received from the British public organization FireAID. The US Department of Atomic Energy handed over 10 radio-chemical reconnaissance vehicles.
Estonia handed over 9 minibuses that will be used as control points for drones and equipped with electronic warfare devices. The Japanese government sent 2 armored mechanized demining vehicles to the Ukrainian rescuers. Also, 17 tanker trucks and 2 fire truck ladders arrived from Japan, which were purchased with the funds of the general fund. https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/ukrayinskym-ryatuvalnykam-peredaly-69-spetsmashyn/
Director of the Department of Financial Stability of the National Bank of Ukraine, Pervin Dadashova, reported that the real incomes of the population of Ukraine are growing significantly due to higher salaries, pensions and lower inflation. She said this during the presentation of the "Financial Stability Report" at the NBU. The NBU noted that in 2024, the growth of real incomes of the population accelerated. Their main component - salaries - is growing, especially in the private sector. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/303701-realnye-dokhody-ukraintsev-bystro-rastut-v-nbu-nazvali-glavnye-faktory
This is really great, although unfortunately the exact numbers remain a mystery. I'll just repeat the old joke that the rich eat meat, and the poor eat bread, although according to statistics, everyone eats hamburgers. At least among my acquaintances there is not a single person whose income has increased. After all, I have no acquaintances among corrupt officials and authorities.
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Changes in weather and magnetic storms knocked me off my feet again. Showers and strong winds look beautiful, but are poorly tolerated.
Missile attacks on the energy sector also continue and the situation is getting worse and worse. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cq55vw5w8r8o
The main problem in summer is the operation of refrigerators. You have to carefully check the products before purchasing and not store anything for a long time. Porridge, pasta and sausage with preservatives are the basis of nutrition.
The outlook in Ukraine is looking increasingly bleak given energy problems and the coming winter. There is talk that russia, if it is impossible to win with its existing forces, will use nuclear weapons. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cevv952q15jo They are also running out of resources, and defeat will mean the end for the regime. The Ukrainian authorities have the same perspective, so neither side takes into account the loss of people, which leads to the fact that more and more people are mobilized, but no one returns from the front.
It is obvious that Chinese support for russia will not stop, and pootin’s latest visits to the DPRK and Vietnam show that these countries can be used as hubs or parts of the production and logistics chain for the transit of military aid from China. Therefore, the West-East confrontation has already finally taken shape and the place where they measure their strength, unfortunately, will remain Ukraine for a long time. However, a possible peace conference, supposedly organized by China, is already being discussed.
My daughter graduated from school with honors and is preparing to enter the lyceum. My wife and daughter are planning to come for a week on Sunday. We have a joke that the only reason Ukrainians return to Ukraine is the dentist. They are going to come for this very purpose. Kate also needs an examination by an ophthalmologist and new glasses. I'll see them at the same time. More and more often I feel as if I am in prison. I take little comfort in knowing that millions of other men feel the same way.
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Congratulations on Kate’s graduation from high school! Another milestone in successfully raising your children, no mean feat in this modern world of pernicious distractions every nanosecond. And, of course, the war and her being in Poland.
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Congratulations on Kate’s graduation from high school! Another milestone in successfully raising your children, no mean feat in this modern world of pernicious distractions every nanosecond. And, of course, the war and her being in Poland.
Thank you Bob!
This is the only, but the main achievement of my family. The children took the challenge seriously and understand very well what is happening. Every time my wife is disappointed in herself, I remind her that she is an excellent coach who confidently leads children to success and without her and her support this would be completely impossible.
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russian President Vladimir pootin launched a major information operation during his recent visit to North Korea and Vietnam on June 18 and 19 aimed at sabotaging efforts by Ukraine's partners to clearly define a common strategic objective and strategy to decisively defeat russia’s illegal war of conquest in Ukraine.
pootin implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons if the West enables Ukraine to decisively defeat russia in order to undermine the international community's cohering strategic vision of support for Ukraine.
russian forces used the new FAB-3000 M-54 bomb with a unified planning and correction module (UMPC) to strike Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast for the first time, representing a new russian capability with a high potential for destruction if russian forces continue to be able to use such weapons uninhibited.
US policy still prohibits Ukrainian forces from striking military targets with US-provided weapons in the operational and deep rear of russian territory.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-20-2024
According to my own information, the russians have again brought a large number of armored vehicles and missiles to the front line in the east. On the other hand, more people have already been mobilized in Ukraine than there are weapons. I expect a big meat grinder in the near future, after which the parties will assess the situation and adjust the strategy.
Also, almost every day, russian combined attacks with drones and missiles damage more and more energy facilities throughout Ukraine, which shifts the balance in favor of russia faster than sanctions against it in favor of the West. The bombing of Kharkiv continues every day. My friend who lives there has already completely lost his optimism.
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On one forum, I saw an announcement about the exchange of a certificate for the restoration of damaged housing for already existing housing in a private manner, and not in the procedure prescribed by law, by investing in the construction in the future with a developer selected by the state. Therefore, if the procedure proposed by the state does not work, semi-legal schemes will begin to function, which significantly increases the risks for people.
A separate topic is political risk insurance, which is the subject of interest for legal advisors.
In such volatile environment, political risk insurance (PRI) emerges as a crucial tool in this regard, providing coverage for property damage, investment losses, and more. It not only offers financial protection to foreign investment in Ukraine. It also boosts investor confidence and facilitates economic recovery of Ukraine.
Insurance of political risks plays several key roles. Firstly, it acts as a financial shield against destruction of assets and loss of investments due to war and other related risks. This type of insurance is aimed to cover risks that are typically excluded from standard insurance policies, thus filling a critical gap in the protection available to companies in conflict zones. Secondly, this kind of insurance helps improve the overall risk profile of insured businesses, making it easier for them to access third-party financing. Investors are more likely to commit funds to projects in Ukraine if they have the assurance that their investments are protected despite the war.
Ukrainian insurance market has so far been able to offer limited PRI, primarily due to the fact that this type of insurance has only recently begun to develop. Despite the growing demand, the present political uncertainty due to the full-scale war and the lack of a long-standing established legal framework have created obstacles to active growth of this insurance sector.
The biggest challenges for the Ukrainian PRI market include:
- Actual occurrence of political risks, which makes insurers hesitant to provide coverage against the risks that have already occurred. A suitable solution to this problem is being elaborated by USAID and other interested parties.
- High insurance costs due to the elevated risks involved make it unaffordable for some companies. Moreover, PRI policies often contain exclusions that limit their applicability in specific situations, such as occupation or annexation of territories.
- Effective risk assessment is also challenging, especially in war-torn regions. Insurers need to evaluate, which regions are relatively secure, and which are prone to ongoing dangers like shelling and occupation. However, the dynamic nature of war makes this task particularly difficult and requires changes in risk assessment methodology.
- Assessment of property damage during war presents another problem. Traditional assessment methods are often inadequate in conflict zones, where access to affected areas can be restricted or dangerous.
- Process of confirming insurance claims and collecting evidence is complicated due to the ongoing war.
But there are also successful PRI Cases in Ukraine.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/2024/06/18/7461362/
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My wife and daughter arrived normally and found me sick. It's probably some kind of virus that's making me cough, have chest pains, and have trouble sleeping because of it. We bought new glasses for our daughter and she is scheduled to visit the dentist. Medical services in Ukraine are three times cheaper and of better quality.
She is a little bored when there is no electricity for 5-6 hours in a row, however, in the next few years she is serious about getting an education in Poland and we need to think about how to provide this for her. Graduating from school with honors gives her the opportunity to choose the best lyceums, and she applied to one of them.
Due to the explosion of a home-made battery, another apartment near Kyiv burned down, and this is becoming a real danger. And it is not yet winter when people will solve the issue of heating with self-made stoves. https://focus.ua/uk/ukraine/653790-pid-kiyevom-progrimiv-vibuh-cherez-akumulyator-povnistyu-zgorila-kvartira-foto-video
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Glad your wife & daughter arrived safely Wlad. Hopefully whatever kind of crud (sickness) will end and you feel better soon.
I had to research the word "lyceums" to learn what it is. This isn't a word I have ever heard spoken nor written until today. So keeping in tough with you always teaches me new things.
Today I met my friend in his town, not very far from my town. We enjoyed breakfast and catching up on our situations. We both agreed that money here has much less value than it did just five years ago. He also believes in big foot and that makes me laugh. I'm glad that he is my friend. We raised a young lad together back in the 1990's. The lad's father was a junky and his mother moved here to start a new life with her two little boys. Now the lad is a father, great job, wonderful wife and a boy and girl. I'm so proud of him!
After breakfast, I decided to go and look at the local golf course. I've been here almost 40 years and never seen the place. I parked my car and looked out over the greens. Then I hear something, turn and see a bag of golf clubs moving all by itself... ?? .. Then a guy appears behind this self rolling thing. Then another bag of clubs is following him too! They are some kind of robot! I guess that's the new thing in golf, no more human caddies. huhhhh
I am so happy that your daughter has done so well. Both your kids are lucky to have you and your bride's guidance. Now if the war would end so you can be together again.
73
Jaye
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My wife and daughter arrived normally and found me sick. It's probably some kind of virus that's making me cough, have chest pains, and have trouble sleeping because of it. We bought new glasses for our daughter and she is scheduled to visit the dentist. Medical services in Ukraine are three times cheaper and of better quality.
She is a little bored when there is no electricity for 5-6 hours in a row, however, in the next few years she is serious about getting an education in Poland and we need to think about how to provide this for her. Graduating from school with honors gives her the opportunity to choose the best lyceums, and she applied to one of them.
Due to the explosion of a home-made battery, another apartment near Kyiv burned down, and this is becoming a real danger. And it is not yet winter when people will solve the issue of heating with self-made stoves. https://focus.ua/uk/ukraine/653790-pid-kiyevom-progrimiv-vibuh-cherez-akumulyator-povnistyu-zgorila-kvartira-foto-video
Best wishes for a speedy recovery of your health!
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Best wishes for a speedy recovery of your health!
Thank you Braden!
I don't have a fever, but my nose is wet and red and I'm constantly coughing. I hope it will be over soon, although I am only treating it with tea. At least I heard that this is how they are usually treated in Europe)
I hope my wife and daughter will not get infected from me.
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Glad your wife & daughter arrived safely Wlad. Hopefully whatever kind of crud (sickness) will end and you feel better soon.
I had to research the word "lyceums" to learn what it is. This isn't a word I have ever heard spoken nor written until today. So keeping in tough with you always teaches me new things.
Thank you Jaye!
In fact, many Polish words have already entered our language. Lyceums are a common form of educational institutions in Europe, although each country has unique things in education and society.
Thanks for the interesting story! Kate and I also discussed how difficult it is to find friends. She no longer communicates with anyone in Ukraine and has only one friend in Poland, who lived in Canada for some time after leaving Ukraine in 2022 and improved her English there. She said that immersing herself in studies was a way to occupy herself and not think about it. Learning English had a great impact on Kate, opening up new horizons. I think the lyceum will be much more interesting for her than in previous school and she will be able to find new friends there. Also, she and Seva are still worried about studies and exams, but they are already confident enough and understand how much depends on them, and not only on circumstances. At least they are very young and energetic and if they want to, they can achieve much more than if they stayed in Ukraine.
Long-term power outages and the use of generators make life more expensive and doing business difficult. Therefore, I have more and more doubts about private investment and development in the short term for objective reasons.
Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance and Tax Policy, Danylo Hetmantsev, provided interesting figures that show the state of Ukraine's economy.
According to him, 71% of business entities were profitable, earning a total of 33.5 billion dollars, while 29% of enterprises suffered losses in the amount of 12 billion dollars.
More than 40% of the total profit was provided by financial and insurance activities, mainly the banking sector.
The level of losses in different sectors:
in the field of culture, sports and entertainment - 41.4% of all enterprises;
real estate transactions – 39.6%;
education – 36.8%;
hotel and restaurant sector – 36.2%;
professional and scientific and technical sphere - 32.5%;
IT – 31.3%;
construction - 31%.
https://24tv.ua/business/rekordni-pributki-ukrayinskogo-biznesu-pro-yaki-pokazniki-ydetsya_n2583189
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It seems that the war in Ukraine has forced the authorities of many countries to reconsider the state of affairs and their defense strategy. It also becomes the subject of pre-election discussions.
Britain’s armed forces need more money not untrained teenage volunteers, former military leaders and Tory figures have said in a new blow to the Conservatives’ faltering election campaign. Within hours of being announced, Rishi Sunak’s election pledge to bring back military service for 18-year-olds was rubbished by army chiefs and a former Conservative defence secretary. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/26/rishi-sunaks-national-service-pledge-is-bonkers-says-ex-military-chief
But in this case, I think that the main thing is not about defense capability, but money. Moreover, as Ukraine's experience shows, the next government can continue to act like its predecessors immediately after the elections, repeating the theses and arguments of former opponents.
On Tuesday, June 25, the Kyiv Pecherskyi District Court chose a preventive measure against MP Mykola Tyshchenko, who is suspected of illegally depriving a former military serviceman of his freedom in Dnipro. According to the court's decision, he must be under 24-hour house arrest for the next 60 days. https://suspilne.media/776315-nardepu-tisenku-obiraut-zapobiznij-zahid/
A very strange story with this friend of Yermak, and some even suggest that the purpose of this information surge is to hide yet another loss of positions in the east, diverting people's attention from real problems.
Perhaps this was also the reason for the dismissal of the commander of the Eastern Front, General Yurii Sodol. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3gg9v3vg02o
He is also a very controversial person who was appointed not so long ago during the replacement of General Zaluzhny's command. I will not be surprised if the current Commander-in-Chief Syrsky is dismissed after another series of failures. As they say in russia - the tzar is good, the boyars are bad, when the tzar was ordered the execution of subordinates, blaming them for his mistakes and failures. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boyar
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Wlad, I also hope you feel better very soon. Summer “colds” always seem doubly miserable to me.
I’m glad to hear that your wife and daughter arrived without significant difficulty. Also, it’s wonderful that she is doing so well, and has learned English too!
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People's deputy Andriy Osadchuk said that the parliament granted mobilization centers "a lot of powers." Article 3 of the Constitution, which deals with the value of life and human dignity in the country, may need to be printed and hung on the wall in each mobilization center.
Not a single representative of the mobilization center or the Ministry of Defense came to the meeting of the Verkhovna Rada, which was supposed to consider alleged cases of violations in the mobilization process. People's deputy (Voice), first deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada committee on law enforcement Andriy Osadchuk told about this on Radio Svoboda.
According to him, the meeting planned to comprehensively consider scandalous cases with possible violations of human rights in the work of mobilization centers, which the public learned about. https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/651019-porushennya-z-boku-tck-predstavniki-minoboroni-ne-prijshli-na-zasidannya-v-radu-nardep
The deputy in the Verkhovna Rada spoke about tens of thousands of cases of violations by mobilization centers and asked the ombudsman what is being done in this direction, who answered that he receives about 150 such appeals every day. This is about 50,000 per year. And how many complaints are received by courts and law enforcement agencies?
I watched the round table on ensuring respect for human rights under martial law where my colleagues shared their recent experiences.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abU5ld2pl_8
They confirm a large number of violations of procedures and complete irresponsibility. Moreover, a lawyer who does not have documents exempting him from military service may be mobilized to make his work impossible and as a means of influencing him. The right to defense is an integral part of the right to a fair trial without which the rule of law is impossible.
But the situation is made much worse by the fact that a person who was illegally mobilized or a medical opinion on fitness for service is contested, is also limited in access to justice. On the one hand, he cannot physically go to court while in the army, where he is immediately sent, and on the other hand, statistics were cited that, for example, in one of the district courts of Kyiv in 2023, there were only 19 judges, who on average had to consider more than 4,000 cases every. Due to the increase in cases of violations of rights and the increase in the amount of fines, the number of lawsuits will increase many times, which will lead to a collapse in the courts.
Also, any case lost in court due to non-compliance by state representatives with the procedure will result in the imposition of costs related to the consideration of the case, which will cause financial losses to the state. That is, the state spends money on the maintenance of its employees who break the law, which leads to the illegal mobilization of the unfit, on whom money is also spent without the desired effect, who complain to a court funded by the state, which also has to reimburse all related costs. The state also loses such soldiers. Can someone explain what is the meaning of this for the state?
Again, the problem of the fact that the number of conflicts is increasing due to the fact that soldiers with PTSD are hunting people, instead of being treated, was discussed. Add to this the lack of knowledge or ignorance of the law on both sides and the general low level of legal culture of the population and you see the Soviet Union at its worst. Of course, people refuse to obey laws when they see that the government itself is not going to obey them. It destroys social order.
Obviously such "mobilization" achieves the opposite effect - the sick and those who do not want to fight are sent to the front, which reduces the country's defense capability. As representatives of medical commissions say informally, after a large number of forged documents were issued to healthy people for bribes, they cannot recognize patients as sick, as this immediately attracts the attention of law enforcement agencies, which consider each such document suspicious. It is easier for them to recognize a sick person as healthy and send them to the front, from which they will not return, than to prove to the law enforcement officers that they have acted according to the law. As I have already said, the appeal of illegal actions does not stop the mobilization.
The main argument of the government and its supporters, which justify all this, is that human rights are suspended due to exceptional circumstances. Due to the same exceptional circumstances, democracy in general is also on pause due to the absence of elections. Due to these same exceptional circumstances, people have been turned into lawless slaves. It seems that war can justify everything.
Today is the day of the Constitution of Ukraine, but I would rather call it a memorial service, because the authorities raped and killed most of the rights and freedoms enshrined in it. I am reminded of the USSR (Stalin) Constitution of 1936, which enshrined rights and freedoms that were never implemented, and people were killed by the millions in camps in Siberia...
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It has been a week of intense heat, but power outages remain at the same level - about 9 hours a day in Kyiv. Air attacks continue and yesterday another infrastructure facility was damaged in Vilnansk in the southeast https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4ngl485wpgo and apartment building in Dnipro https://24tv.ua/vnaslidok-udaru-po-dnipru-ye-zagibliy-poraneni-zhertv-mozhe-buti_n2585982
Due to significant russian shelling of the Burshtyn thermal power station, it is not subject to restoration. Due to the destruction of the power plant, the city of Burshtyn may be left without heat and hot water in winter. https://galka.if.ua/burshtynska-tes-ne-pidliahaie-vidnovlenniu-holova-ova-onyshchuk/
Oleh Popenko, the head of the Union of Utilities Consumers, noted that the USAID agency handed Ukraine 96 cogeneration plants of 55 MW for 32 cities and three universities, but only one of them was installed in Zhytomyr. https://espreso.tv/ekonomika-tilki-odna-z-96-ustanovok-dlya-zabezpechennya-elektroenergii-ta-tepla-vid-usaid-bula-vstanovlena-golova-spilki-spozhivachiv-komunalnikh-poslug
The war in Ukraine again and again raises questions about the readiness of European countries and their armies to participate in a possible war, as discussed by different people. For example, Sandor Fabian writes that Europe drew the wrong conclusions from the consequences of the war in Ukraine: European countries sit at a historical turning point, one that potentially affects their long-term national survival. The existential-level shock that many suggest is a necessary condition for groundbreaking changes has been delivered to them by the Russian attack on Ukraine. All of them responded with more and faster investment in their national defense. Unfortunately, too many have been pursuing misguided responses to this shock and continue investing in poorly suited and even meaningless capabilities based on the continued illusions about the conduct of conventional war. Observations from the war in Ukraine point toward a need for a complete paradigm shift. A theory of war that works for one country and in one time may prove to be wholly inapplicable to other countries in a different time. When that happens, leaders must be prepared to modify or even abandon that theory of war. European countries should completely redesign their national defense approaches based on the realities of the twenty-first-century battlefield. Failing to do so may force them to pay the ultimate price in the event of russian aggression.
https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-illusion-of-conventional-war-europe-is-learning-the-wrong-lessons-from-the-conflict-in-ukraine/
Due to the unexpected situation with the elections in the USA, the situation in other "hot spots" is also deteriorating. Iran's representation at the UN said that if Israel attacks Lebanon, a "war of annihilation" will begin. "Albeit Iran deems as psychological warfare the Zionist regime’s propaganda about intending to attack Lebanon, should it embark on full-scale military aggression, an obliterating war will ensue. All options, incl. the full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table". https://x.com/Iran_UN/status/1806835657815323085
But we must not forget that the war continues not only at the front, and I am sure that the presence of russian agents in the West is much greater than that of Western agents in russia or China.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/02dbb068-6bf5-4984-9943-d66d55aa80ec?shareToken=251b34b0e87f7c17272a0b44bf03dec2
Kate has had all her teeth repaired and Maryna is also going to the dentist tomorrow. The week passed very quickly and they were very tired. I still cough and people say that now many people have the same illness. Apparently it's some kind of virus again.
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There is an interesting article about russian agents in Europe https://www.thetimes.com/article/02dbb068-6bf5-4984-9943-d66d55aa80ec?shareToken=251b34b0e87f7c17272a0b44bf03dec2
Impressive, isn't it? But this is only the tip of the iceberg...
From time to time, when lawyers state another violation of human rights and wonder what rights still exist, we can still see publications in which people have the courage to express their opinion without fear of criminal prosecution.
One of them is Hennadiy Druzenko, who reflects in his publication on the relationship between citizens and the state and wants to hear from the President of Ukraine not a shorthand report on the current work done over the past day, but the outlines of a new social contract that he offers to the citizens of the state for which he is sending kill them and die. Because there are almost no people willing to go fight for Ukraine just because it is "not russia" and should remain so. He wants to hear what kind of Ukraine are we fighting for? What does this state offer its citizens, other than the right to heroically die for it?
A modern country is a tango for two. A citizen has a duty to obey laws, defend his state and pay taxes. And the state must guarantee him safety, justice and predictability. And also the right to participate in the management of the country. Otherwise, it turns out to be a one-goal game, in which fewer and fewer Ukrainians want to play...
Those who were ready to die for any state under the yellow-blue flag are running out. Generations that have tasted the delights of an open global world ask: if I give a few years, health or even life to this state, what will I get from it in return? In Shevchenko's ingenious manifesto of independence: "In one's house, truth, power, and will are one's own," the emphasis shifted from the word "own" to "truth" and "will." Own managerial impotence, thievery, and corruption are not enough. "Ukraine should be looted by Ukrainians" is no longer inspiring... Source: https://censor.net/ua/b3496150
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I agree with Sandor Fabian that modern war involves assymetry of small inexpensive weapons being able to destroy large expensive ones, and that all countries must adjust their forces to account for this. This has been coming for a long time now, and absolutely must be addressed rapidly, but military attitudes and weapons procurement often move like molasses in winter.
However I disagree with him about the “limited utility of the western way of warfare”. This is drawing the wrong conclusion from the Russian war on Ukraine, and its defense. There’s nothing inherently Western about “combined arms maneuver warfare”, and the Russians do it too, when they can. They would do more of it if they had the ability.
Ukraine has not had the opportunity to mount substantial and effective combined arms warfare because first, it lacks air power, including electronic countermeasures against air defense, to take out enemy positions and to provide support to ground forces. Second it has very limited availability of armored vehicles, and third, but certainly not least, Ukraine has been restricted from having, or using, long range western weapons to destroy Russian aircraft and other forces deep within Russian territory.
If early on Ukraine been able and allowed to attack and destroy Russian forces and assets far from the border, supply routes such as the Kerch bridge, and most of the Black Sea fleet, I believe the present war would likely already be over, though Putin, were he still President, would no doubt try again in the future.
This teaches a lesson that Fabian neglects, which is that there is no substitute for a devastating, widespread and decisive counterattack to the initial aggression. Capable long range, precision weapons combined with so called Western methods are ideal for this. This is especially true when the aggressor can absorb virtually unlimited amounts of “proportional responses”, as Russia can.
Obviously as Fabian points out, small nations usually cannot afford to fund such a capability either in materiel or in men. But this is exactly why NATO is so important, because it combines multiple countries into a unified military capability.
Fighting a purely defensive war, with artificial territorial and rules of engagement limits, while the enemy can prosecute their offensive from safe territory is always a losing strategy, or at best, a stalemate after a long war of attrition. There are several obvious examples over the last 75 years.
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I agree with you Bob. The main thing is that this war showed that many old solutions do not work, and the main factors that affect the success of all sides are technologies and the international situation. The support of allies and the attitude to the war of other countries is becoming more important than the resources of the immediate participants in the war. It is necessary to recognize the fact that despite russia's multiple superiority in resources, it would have surrendered long ago if it did not have the support of China, India, Iran and other countries. Therefore, the end of this war will depend not on the desire of russia, but on the support of the allies and the possibility of continuing the war.
In this regard, Xi's visit to Kazakhstan is very important. Leaders from China, russia and countries in the global south are gathering in Kazakhstan for the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a group that has been described as the “anti-Nato”.
Established as the “Shanghai Five” in 1996, the group was originally a forum for the founding members – China, russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – to thrash out border disputes. Since then, its membership and scope has expanded to include countries as diverse and mutually disagreeable as India, Pakistan and Iran. This year, Belarus is expected to be welcomed into the fold.
The summit is part of China’s efforts to establish what it calls a “multilateral” world order that is not dominated by the US. But it is also a forum in which China and russia’s “strategic partnership” will be tested by their competing desires to wield influence in central Asia.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/03/xi-jinping-central-asia-trip-china-vies-regional-influence-russia
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban yesterday unexpectedly visited Ukraine. He respects President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's peace formula but considers it too lengthy to implement. At a press conference in Kyiv, the head of the Hungarian government stated that he is offering Ukraine alternative options to end the war. Orban noted that he proposed an immediate ceasefire to Zelenskyy for further negotiations. https://news.liga.net/en/politics/news/orban-asks-zelenskyy-to-consider-ceasefire-and-negotiations-in-kyiv
The attempt to organize a coup went completely unnoticed by the Ukrainians.
Ukraine has foiled an alleged plot to overthrow the government that “would have played into russia’s hands,” security officials in the war-torn country said Monday. In a Telegram post, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed the plot organizers planned to trigger a riot in Kyiv on June 30 as a distraction to seize control of the Ukrainian parliament and remove the military and political leadership from power. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/02/europe/ukraine-thwarts-coup-attempt-intl-hnk/index.html
Let me just remind you that Telegram is controlled by russia.
https://www.dw.com/en/is-telegram-a-threat-to-ukraines-national-security/a-68732966
For the past two years, Ukraine’s creditors have agreed to suspend debt-service payments. The let-off—from both government and private lenders—is worth 15% of GDP a year. Indeed, if payments had been required, they would have been the state’s second-biggest expenditure, behind defence. Now, however, the moratorium from private foreign bondholders, including Amundi, a French asset manager, and Pimco, an American one, is set to expire on August 1st.
Thus Ukraine has a month to avoid default. The IMF is keen for Minister of Finance Mr Marchenko to negotiate a write-down, but a deal seems unlikely in the time available. If Ukraine does default, it would reflect a troubling lack of faith among private investors concerning the West’s commitment. In the long run, that could spell disaster for the country’s recovery. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/06/30/ukraine-has-a-month-to-avoid-default
In fact, Ukraine has been in default for a long time, but if states can continue to finance Ukraine at the expense of their taxpayers, then investment funds are not engaged in charity and the task of their management is to generate income for their clients. Therefore, Ukraine's ability to service debt is a direct indicator for any private investor.
Ukrainian business negatively evaluates business activity due to the following factors:
- maintaining uncertainty about the duration of the war,
- an increase in business costs due to electricity shortages due to russian attacks on the power system and tariff increases,
- weak investment demand,
- deterioration of course expectations,
- unfavorable trends in the labor market, as well as a significant shortage of qualified workers.
This is evidenced by the Index of Expectations of Business Activity in June, published by the National Bank of Ukraine
https://businessua.com/finance/97760chomu-biznes-negativno-ocinyue-dilovu-aktivnist-top-6-prichin.html
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Today there was no electricity longer than it was. It is not so difficult to charge a phone or a computer with powerbank, but with refrigerators, everything is much worse. Even in stores that use generators, few lights and only some refrigerators are left on. There is often an unpleasant smell and you have to be very careful with meat, milk and other perishable products. Air temperature of 35C makes the situation even more difficult.
The population's use of generators and home-made batteries leads to fires. https://unn.ua/news/u-bilii-tserkvi-stalasia-pozhezha-cherez-henerator-vybukhnulo-pislia-kilkokh-hodyn-roboty
Yesterday my friend sent me a video of a fire in her neighboring house and she was very scared. https://www.unian.ua/incidents/novini-kiyeva-masshtabna-pozhezha-viruye-u-zhk-respublika-na-teremkah-novini-kiyeva-12684600.html
It is especially dangerous to live in modern high-rise buildings with no gas and dense buildings. Also, due to the unpredictability of power outages, there is a great risk of getting stuck in the elevator and not everyone can climb above 10 floors at once.
Wireline Internet operators have provided power to their network equipment, but mobile operators are warning about the impossibility of charging batteries of base stations and communication problems. https://itechua.com/news/261685
In the evening of June 30, the russian occupying forces launched a missile attack on Kyiv. Anti-aircraft defenses destroyed enemy targets, but debris fell on a 14-story building. There was a fire. https://hromadske.ua/viyna/226961-u-kyyevi-ulamky-rakety-poshkodyly-bahatopoverkhivku
In Kharkiv, Dnipro and smaller cities closer to the front, people also die and there is more destruction.
https://suspilne.media/dnipro/782081-travmovana-zinka-cerez-padinna-ulamkiv-raketi-obstrili-nikopolsini-golovni-novini-dnipra-ta-oblasti-3-lipna/
https://rubryka.com/2024/07/02/obstril-harkova-okupanty-skynuly-dva-fab-500-postrazhdaly-chetvero-meshkantsiv/
In occupied Donetsk and other cities, almost every day something explodes and is destroyed, there are problems with electricity. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-povidomlennia-vybuhy-donetsk/33020576.html
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Maryna and Kate returned to Poland today. The week flew by very quickly and it's a pity that I was sick all this time. Even today I still cough. But they managed to do a lot. Unfortunately, Kate's eyesight deteriorated again and they bought two new glasses. She has grown a lot in the year since I last saw her and wore her older brother's t-shirts, which remained in the closet. They also visited the dentist. We can no longer afford the same dentist who treated our teeth for the past 10 years, so we turned to the clinic next door. Maybe simple dental fillings will be of normal quality.
Kate dreams of growing up, earning money and having eye surgery. Maybe that's why she studies so well, because she doesn't have to rely on me anymore. She applied to the lyceum with a competition of 29 people for a place, but she passed the exams with a result of 96% to 100% and we believe that she will be enrolled in the lyceum.
When there was no electricity, I remembered how my grandmother made oil lamps and I made the same one to show Kate. She was surprised that it can be made from a piece of potato and any oil, for example from canned fish. It smoked and there was a strong smell of fried potatoes, but it perfectly matched the atmosphere and reminded us of how our ancestors lived 100 years ago. Well, of course, with the exception of those who died during the famine arranged by russian androphages.
The executive director of the association "Energy-efficient cities of Ukraine" Svyatoslav Pavlyuk said that every residence in Ukraine should be equipped with a battery for storing electricity. The power of such equipment will reach 7-10 kWh for the amount of 3-4 thousand dollars. This will give people the opportunity to save electricity during those periods of the day when it is cheaper. According to this "expert", Ukrainians "eaten up" these funds in the past so people will have to return them. https://one.ua/15510-ukraincy-proeli-sredstva-na-oborudovanie-dlya-nakopleniya-elektroenergii-pavlyuk
I live in a poor area and I see that when it's dark, some light is visible only in a few windows in the houses opposite and these are small lanterns. That is, such advice is senseless and offensive, but it perfectly demonstrates how far the government and rich people are from ordinary people and their opportunities.
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Yes and the pace of technology advancing to smaller, lighter, less expensive weapon is accelerating. Then we have the infant AI technology which in a few years will autonomous weapons to be fielded.
I like your point about the interdependency of countries being a prime factor in military success today. Russia obviously is a prime example since they have mismanaged their economy, resources and human capital for centuries, which continues even now. But other advanced nations including the US have similar problems in various degrees, especially after losses of native industry because of low cost Chinese imports. Fortunately as you know these problems have been recognized and are in the process of being mitigated.
A multipolar would be natural, but it seems more likely to become a “bipolar +” world, where soon China will clearly lead the authoritarian pole (if they want to but i’m not sure that they do) and Russia will be in the main supporting role. However it will likely be a very fractious group and China will not have an easy time managing it.
Interesting article on this topic:
https://archive.ph/2024.07.01-103740/https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/russia-china-nato-axis-resistance/678831/
Sorry to hear that the electric supply is becoming worse because of Russian attacks. I will not forget that a group in the US House of Representatives combined with weak leadership caused a six month delay in arms shipments which was a major factor.
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Good to hear that Maryna and Kate were able to have the dental work and that Kate received new glasses. I hope your illness passes soon. Here Covid-19 is resurgent on the west coast and no doubt will be moving east.
If I may ask, is Kate’s eye condition one of refraction needing corrective glasses (or laser surgery) rather than something more organic?
From her excellent test scores, it certainly seems likely that Kate will be admitted to the Lyceum. When will she know the decision?
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There are court decisions in which the courts recognize the actions of mobilization centers as illegal and cancel fines, oblige the release of illegally detained persons, but cases of prosecution of the guilty are almost unknown.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/304844-eks-nalogovyy-militsioner-poluchil-ot-ttsk-17-tysyach-grn-shtrafa-za-neobnovlenie-dannykh-khotya-obnovil-ikh-cherez-rezerv-i-obraschalsya-v-ttsk-s-zayavleniem-o-prinyatii-ego-na-uchet
Also, lawyers are forced to act in conditions of secrecy of normative acts that regulate the activities of the military, although according to 57 of the Constitution of Ukraine, laws and other legal acts defining the rights and obligations of citizens, which are not brought to the attention of the population in the manner established by law, are invalid.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/304875-v-kabmine-i-minoborony-otvetili-pochemu-postanovlenie-o-rezerv-zasekrecheno
MP Maryana Bezugla criticizes the generals for improperly organizing the training of soldiers and their inability to do their job, and asks why none of them have been brought to justice.https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10231532767932943&id=1551784961&rdid=QR6Gj38pxwf0ayT9
On the forums you can find, for example, reports that only 1.5 months can pass from the draft to the death of an unprepared person. https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/topic/237244-rossiyane-nam-prinesli-voynu/?do=findComment&comment=5415620
The concern is that they will use us as cannon fodder at the front - Welt writes https://www.welt.de/investigativ/plus252252646/Ukraine-Vom-Knast-an-die-Front.html?icid=search.product.onsitesearch
Even T-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, stated that the main problems at the front are the staffing of units with motivated, well-trained personnel and the provision of modern means of radio-electronic warfare and air defense for effective combat against enemy unmanned aerial vehicles. https://unn.ua/news/syrskyi-rozpoviv-pro-naibilshi-problemy-na-fronti
Instead, unmotivated and unprepared people continue to be sent to the front.
But those who do not want to participate in this will be shot if they try to escape from the country https://24tv.ua/kordoni-rumuniyeyu-zastrelili-cholovika-29-chervnya-dpsu-skazali_n2587144
The latest russian missile attack on the military airport in Myrhorod, during which several military aircraft were destroyed, raises the question of whether the F-16s expected this year will also be destroyed. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/07/01/the-ukrainian-air-force-parked-six-su-27-fighters-in-the-open-100-miles-from-the-front-line-a-russian-missile-destroyed-two-of-them/
russian cadets sing their vows to help pootin take Alaska back from United States https://mustreadalaska.com/russian-cadets-sing-their-vows-to-help-putin-take-alaska-back-from-united-states/#:~:text=Russian%20cadets%20seen%20in%20a,for%20Russia%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin
And let's not forget that the war does not prevent russia from supplying gas to Europe through Ukraine, and it is ready to continue doing so. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/3881667-rosia-zaavila-pro-gotovnist-i-pisla-2024-roku-postacati-gaz-v-evropu-cerez-ukrainu.html
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The Armed Forces of Ukraine have 14 brigades without weapons, as they have not yet arrived from Western partners. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this in an interview with Bloomberg. If you look at Zelensky's previous interview, in it he said that there are 10 understaffed brigades. Okay, it became 14. The number changed in a very short time. But he says that they do not fight because they have no weapons and equipment. And a little further he says that there are brigades that do not have soldiers. That is, some do not have weapons, so they do not fight, and others who do fight do not have soldiers.
The president also blamed our allies for revealing the plans and telling the russians where the weapons would be located. He said that partners provide weapons and say where they should go. After that, the russians send their missiles there and there are no secrets for russia.
Zelensky says that not only russians need a weak president of Ukraine, but others do as well. He did not name these others, it can be a big field for interpretation. Also, the President did not mention the Armed Forces and the courage of Ukrainians, and the entire interview is based on the fact that only the President is fighting.
The funny thing is that even in this staged interview, a prompter helps him. People criticize Biden, but at least he speaks on his own.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZJj-rCkIbw
https://hromadske.radio/podcasts/na-pulsi-analizuiemo-holovne-na-hromadskomu-radio/polityk-zelenskyy-perevazhyv-verkhovnoho-holovnokomanduvacha-ukrainy-politolohynia
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has made changes to the Procedure for submitting applications for compensation for damages, losses or damage to the Register of Damages Caused by the russian federation's Aggression Against Ukraine, by means of the Unified State Web Portal of Electronic Services. From now on, the number of mandatory conditions for submitting an application has been reduced. In particular, the provision regarding the ownership of a damaged or destroyed object of immovable property registered in the State Register of Property Rights to immovable property is excluded. Also, they will not require the presence of an act of commission inspection of the object. https://agrotimes.ua/agromarket/sproshheno-umovy-podannya-zayav-do-reyestru-zbytkiv-zavdanyh-agresiyeyu-rf-proty-ukrayiny/
The defense-industrial complex of Ukraine launched long-range drones that hit targets in russia into mass production. General Director of Ukroboronprom Herman Smetanin said that they are capable of hitting targets at a range of more than 1,000 kilometers.
https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/ukrayina-zapustyla-serijne-vyrobnytstvo-dalekobijnyh-droniv/
The government plans to include the Bureau of Economic Security of Ukraine in the list of special users of the radio frequency spectrum. The inclusion of the BESU in the list of special users of the radio frequency spectrum will ensure the appropriate level of conspiracy in the work of the units of the Bureau, which carry out operational and investigative activities and pre-trial investigation, and will enable the relevant units of the BESU to use the special use radio frequency bands free of charge. https://biz.ligazakon.net/news/228858_uryad-proponu-vklyuchiti-beb-do-perelku-spetsalnikh-koristuvachv-radochastotnogo-spektru
The Ivano-Frankivsk mobilization center set up a checkpoint in Vorokhta in western Ukraine to check men going to the Bukovel resort. The local residents were outraged that they were scaring away tourists, and beat the soldier. As a result, the roadblock was removed. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/video-na-prykarpatti-napaly-na-post-ttsk-de-pereviryaly-turystiv-iz-bukovelya
Hungarian society now perceives Ukraine as a greater threat than russia, according to a survey by the Policy Solutions think tank published by the country’s Telex news portal on July 5.
Of all the countries surveyed in 2024, 51% of Hungarians see Ukraine as a major threat, followed by russia (46%), China (34%), and the United States (34%).
This marks a significant shift in public opinion compared to last year, when russia was considered as the greater threat, 12% ahead of Ukraine. This change in perceptions of Ukraine is consistent across party affiliations.
The survey also found an even greater deterioration in attitudes toward Ukrainian refugees. In the spring of 2024, only 17% of respondents felt positive about Ukrainian refugees moving into their neighborhood, while 49% expressed negative feelings.
https://telex.hu/belfold/2024/07/05/policy-solutions-magyarok-vilag-kulpolitika
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If I may ask, is Kate’s eye condition one of refraction needing corrective glasses (or laser surgery) rather than something more organic?
From her excellent test scores, it certainly seems likely that Kate will be admitted to the Lyceum. When will she know the decision?
As the doctors said, she has astigmatism and myopia, which need to be corrected with glasses until she reaches 21 years old. Then it will be clear what to do next because now, due to her growth, it is impossible to accurately understand the consequences of surgical intervention.
She applied to the lyceum, whose graduates include the current President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, and many other politicians and lawyers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_John_III_Sobieski_2nd_High_School_(Krak%C3%B3w)
We will find out whether she will be admitted to the lyceum next week.
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Interesting article on this topic:
https://archive.ph/2024.07.01-103740/https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/russia-china-nato-axis-resistance/678831/
It's surprising that such a good analysis contains such gross errors:
But by 2022, under President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine was tackling corruption, Westernizing, and consolidating democratic rule.
Under Zelensky it became even worse than under the pro-russian Yanukovych
(the very aid that Donald Trump held up in an effort to extort political dirt from Zelensky)
In 2017 the Trump administration has approved the largest U.S. commercial sale of lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine since 2014.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/12/20/trump-administration-approves-lethal-arms-sales-to-ukraine/
It seems that this is a typical mistake of everyone who tries to analyze what is happening in other countries remoutly. I am sure that any illiterate resident of russia could tell more about how things are really there than all the combined American academics who study russia, but who have never been there.
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As the doctors said, she has astigmatism and myopia, which need to be corrected with glasses until she reaches 21 years old. Then it will be clear what to do next because now, due to her growth, it is impossible to accurately understand the consequences of surgical intervention.
She applied to the lyceum, whose graduates include the current President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, and many other politicians and lawyers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_John_III_Sobieski_2nd_High_School_(Krak%C3%B3w)
We will find out whether she will be admitted to the lyceum next week.
My wife had quite bad myopia from childhood on and wore thick glasses. In the early 1990s she had laser corrective surgery when it became available. It was very costly for us then, but was the correct decision as the improvement has lasted all this time. Now such surgery can also correct astigmatism and it’s much more affordable.
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I don’t understand the reasons for the concern of the Hungarians.
Is it Ukrainian immigrants taking jobs? Hungarian taxes or arms going to Ukraine? Historical rivalry? Propaganda from Orban’s government?
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It's surprising that such a good analysis contains such gross errors:
But by 2022, under President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine was tackling corruption, Westernizing, and consolidating democratic rule.
Under Zelensky it became even worse than under the pro-russian Yanukovych.
I noted that too.
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I don’t understand the reasons for the concern of the Hungarians.
Is it Ukrainian immigrants taking jobs? Hungarian taxes or arms going to Ukraine? Historical rivalry? Propaganda from Orban’s government?
I think it’s a matter of propaganda, but it’s better to ask the Hungarians themselves. HA2ZB was on the QRZ.COM with us, but there is no one from Hungary here.
Meanwhile, Orban is actively using the fact that Hungary is now the president of the EU and has visited China. Chinese leader Xi Jinping repeated his call for a cease-fire in Ukraine during a surprise meeting with visiting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has upset Europe with a self-styled “peace mission.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-08/hungary-s-orban-visits-china-fresh-off-meeting-with-putin
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This morning began with russia massively shelling Ukraine with missiles. For the first time in a long time, such shelling took place during the day. russia launched more than 40 missiles of various types.
I almost didn't pay attention to the work of the air defense, but the police began to report falling debris in the immediate vicinity of me, and I could see smoke from the fires in the center through the window. Then I was surprised to hear the sound of jet engines in the sky and at first I thought that these were the long-promised F-16s, but it turned out that they were missiles that hit the center of Kyiv without hindrance.
Missiles also caused destruction in the east and south of Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cley16111v2o
In Kyiv, as a result of the missile strike, falling debris and fires were recorded in several districts. The largest damage was caused to a large children's hospital, which is located near a large military factory. Judging by the available videos and photos, it is also damaged and must have been the main target. https://www.dw.com/uk/rosia-udarila-po-ukraini-40-raketami-poskodzena-ditaca-likarna-v-kievi/a-69592793?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
https://hromadske.ua/viyna/227409-usi-dity-z-okhmatdytu-perebuvaly-v-pidvali-pid-chas-obstrilu-odnak-pid-zavalamy-shche-shukaiut-liudey?traffic_source=ukr.net
I used to live in this area many years ago and now I understand how unreasonable it is to locate high-rise residential buildings, large hospitals, ministry buildings, army headquarters, a railway station and a military factory in the immediate vicinity. After 2014, I always avoided living near train stations, airports, military installations, hospitals and factories, which are prime targets during war.
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Appallingly typical for Russia under dictator Putin. I sometimes wonder what happened to him and others like him in utero or childhood to have nothing but a black hole where his heart and conscience should be.
Alas it appears that a small percentage of people are born sociopaths and psychopaths for reasons as yet unknown. A recurring tragedy of history is that the rest of us often allow such people to ascend to the highest positions of economic or political power.
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Wlad, I just now realized that your second book is available. I bought a copy to read.
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Appallingly typical for Russia under dictator Putin. I sometimes wonder what happened to him and others like him in utero or childhood to have nothing but a black hole where his heart and conscience should be.
Alas it appears that a small percentage of people are born sociopaths and psychopaths for reasons as yet unknown. A recurring tragedy of history is that the rest of us often allow such people to ascend to the highest positions of economic or political power.
I don't think pootin is a psychopath. He is very rational, he and other russians just have a different value system. I wrote about this in the book, I hope you like it. Of course, pootin also makes mistakes, but the very fact that despite all the risks and losses he continues to impose his will on the whole world speaks of his effectiveness. Perhaps it is not he who is big, but everyone else who is even smaller. The West has a big problem with those to whom people give power. And it's sad.
A radio amateur friend of mine who lives next to a children's hospital has lost all the windows in his house, but he and his family are alive and well. Another was lucky that his house was closed by another house.
After the first missile attack, a second one followed, one of the missiles in which was shot down almost over my head but, by inertia, ended up in a hospital not far from me. https://ua.news/ua/war-vs-rf/rashysty-udaryly-po-pologovomu-budynku-v-dniprovskomu-rajoni-tam-7-zagyblyh
The NATO Secretary General Secretary General Stoltenberg revealed his vision of the situation and NATO’s role in his interview. On the one hand, he claims that the only way to get there is to convince President pootin that he will not win on the battlefield, he has to sit down and accept a solution where Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent nation in Europe, and the only way to convince Putin that he will not win on the battlefield is abroad military support to Ukraine. But on the other hand, he admits that this is a war much larger than the war between russia and Ukraine because the war in Ukraine demonstrates how closely aligned russia and China and North Korea and Iran are. China is the main enabler of russia's war aggression against Ukraine. President Xi and President pootin, they all want NATO, the United States to fail in Ukraine, and if pootin wins in Ukraine, it will not only embolden President pootin it also would emboldened President Xi, as the Japanese Prime Minister said what happens in Ukraine today can happen in Asia tomorrow. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jens-stoltenberg-nato-secretary-general-face-the-nation-transcript-07-07-2024/
He manipulates figures that show the superiority of NATO countries in GNP, but forgets how rich Rome was destroyed by poor barbarians. Unfortunately, I see a manager, but not a warrior.
In the world, politicians are changing as a result of the elections. If Le Pen wins the elections in France, she has promised to limit military aid to Ukraine. And although the far-right did not get an overwhelming majority in France, support for Ukraine remains in question.
Massoud Pezeshkian, whom some observers call a reformist, won the second round of Iran's presidential election. They were appointed after Iran's previous president, Ibrahim Raisi, was killed in a helicopter crash in May. All candidates are pre-approved by a special pro-government commission, and although Pezeshkian is considered a reformist, he is deeply loyal to the religious leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. So, most likely, this will not change the policy and the current regime in Iran. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cz47vp9n4rwo
After a long silence, Zaluzhny published a photo on Facebook, in which he poses against the background of mountains. Let me remind you that he has been the ambassador of Ukraine to Great Britain for two months, in which he never appeared. Is this not such an important matter, or he was forced to undergo a difficult rehabilitation, because he was released from the army according to the conclusion of the medical committee on his unfitness for service. But he doesn't look so bad in the photo, and the English probably already know how best to help Ukraine. https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=7711859322225534&set=a.511529455591926
Latvia has prepared the next batch of aid worth 4 million euros for Ukraine with 2,500 drones, which will be provided gradually during July as part of the "drone coalition" led by Latvia. https://www.mod.gov.lv/lv/zinas/aizsardzibas-ministrija-ukrainai-piegadas-nakamo-dronu-pakotni-vairak-neka-2500-dronus-4
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I agree that Putin doesn’t show the chaotic traits of both psychopaths and sociopaths. And, by the way, I just learned that sociopathy is a term no longer used in psychology, so I will stop using it.
So I’ll say that Putin has some sort of antisocial personality disorder or disorders, with paranoid and narcissistic features. Even though he is rational, given his twisted goals, normal people do not do what he does.
Yes It appears that France has avoided the extremists for the moment, and the UK has swung dramatically to Labour, which will no doubt work to fix the underfunding of the National Health Service among other things, but their ability to maintain military spending including for Ukraine remains to be seen. Their economy is weaker after Brexit than it would have been in the EU.
Here in the US we have a terrible choice for President between - well, it’s pretty obvious what their faults and dangers are. So I’ll only say that the candidates are clearly unfit for office for mostly very different reasons.
Our bizarre Electoral College system means that only a handful of “swing states” will determine the outcome, not the national vote. Swings of only relatively few votes therefore matter greatly and give a juicy opportunity for passions, and for Russian and other propaganda and disinformation.
The Electoral College was devised in part to prevent temporary public passions from electing a demagogue. Ironically today it may make that outcome more likely.
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Both candidates are demagogues. But both will likely continue military aid to Ukraine.
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I agree that Putin doesn’t show the chaotic traits of both psychopaths and sociopaths. And, by the way, I just learned that sociopathy is a term no longer used in psychology, so I will stop using it.
So I’ll say that Putin has some sort of antisocial personality disorder or disorders, with paranoid and narcissistic features. Even though he is rational, given his twisted goals, normal people do not do what he does.
pootin's main weapon is fear. And more and more people in the West are becoming its victims.
The Guardian published an open letter which calls the Nato alliance should not invite Ukraine to become a member in fear of causing World War 3.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/08/nato-alliance-ukraine-member
I am sure that no specific decisions will be made regarding Ukraine at the NATO summit, and there are many obvious and hidden reasons for this.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is being keenly watched by his Western allies as he meets russian President Vladimir pootin in Moscow on his first foreign trip since he returned to office for a third term in June. Mr Modi's two-day visit - his first to the Kremlin since 2019 - coincides with a Nato summit in Washington, where the 2022 invasion will be a major theme. India, a key global economy, has close ties with both russia and the US and its partners and officials in Delhi are playing down questions over the timing of Mr Modi's trip. They say the annual summit is part of a long-standing strategic partnership and its scheduling has nothing to do with the Nato summit. But a sour note has been struck with the US expressing concern. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller urged Mr Modi to emphasise Ukraine's territorial integrity during his talks in Moscow. Mr Modi told President pootin that India was ready to offer any assistance in establishing peace in Ukraine. russian state TV quoted him saying that war was "not a solution". He also said the death of children was painful and terrifying, a day after the deadly attack on the Kyiv children's hospital.
The Nato summit in Washington, which begins on Tuesday, is being held to mark the 75th anniversary of the Western defence grouping which was mainly formed as a bulwark against the then Soviet Union after World War Two.
Nato countries have been vehemently opposed to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, while India and Mr Modi have refrained from any explicit criticism of President pootin except calling for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the conflict. As Western nations try to isolate Moscow by imposing sanctions, President pootin has been having summit-level meetings with leaders of key nations like China, India, Turkey and others.
India and russia share close defence and strategic relations from Cold War days and Moscow remains a key supplier of weapons. India, which maintains one of the largest militaries in the world, has long-standing border disputes with its neighbours Pakistan and China.
Over the years, russia has provided technical assistance to build several nuclear power plants in India.
Since the Ukraine war began, Delhi has also been buying billions of dollars of discounted oil from Moscow after Western nations imposed sanctions on russia to limit what it could sell or charge for the product.
Driven by a surge in the purchase of oil, bilateral trade between India and russia in the last few years has soared to $65bn (£50.76bn). India’s exports to russia stand at just $4bn.
Indian officials say a key priority for Mr Modi will be to address this trade imbalance and encourage russian investment in India as well as moving some defence production to India.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd91pe5r9go
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All social networks are filled with photos and videos of the children's hospital, although fortunately all the children are alive and even most of the unique equipment was not damaged. Germany has already announced its readiness to accept patients for treatment in its hospitals, but no one has offered the same to children from Gaza.
Two children died in a nearby house destroyed by another missile, but almost no one mentions this. It didn't look as bright as a hospital and they were dug up much later. In total, 33 people died in Kyiv the day before yesterday, of which five were children.
Hundreds of millions have already been collected for the hospital, although the authorities have stated that it will be restored at the expense of the state, but no one is collecting millions for all the others.
The fact that all the missiles that flew into that area (at least 6) hit the military plant and the courtyard of the hospital complex speaks about the state of the air defense.
Ukrainians file and win thousands of lawsuits to compensate by russia for the damage caused by the armed attack, but it will be almost impossible to fulfill them. Assets located on the territory of Ukraine are seized by the state, and it is also very difficult to foreclose on its foreign assets. You should not rely on voluntary repayment at all. https://kp.ua/ua/politics/a693037-ukrajintsi-vihrajut-u-rosiji-miljoni-a-chi-zmozhut-voni-jikh-otrimati
On the other hand, if you are close to the government, you can count on participation in state programs.
First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine - Minister of Economy Yuliya Svyridenko signed the Financial Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union, which regulates the receipt of grant aid under the Ukraine Facility in the amount of €5.27 billion over the next four years. In total, in 2024, Ukraine expects to receive 16 billion euros of support, of which 3 billion euros will be grant aid. https://recovery.win/2024/07/09/uryad-finalizuvav-domovlenist-mizh-ukrayinoyu-ta-yes-v-mezhah-ukraine-facility-finansovu-ugodu-shhodo-e527-mlrd-grantovoyi-dopomogy-pidpysano
Also this year, 25 million dollars have been earmarked for the development of industrial parks in the state budget, said Vitaly Kindrativ, Deputy Minister of Economy. https://24tv.ua/business/ukrayini-zyavilisya-novi-industrialni-parki_n2592893
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Driven by a surge in the purchase of oil, bilateral trade between India and russia in the last few years has soared to $65bn (£50.76bn). India’s exports to russia stand at just $4bn.
Indian officials say a key priority for Mr Modi will be to address this trade imbalance and encourage russian investment in India as well as moving some defence production to India.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd91pe5r9go
If the West were truly interested in isolating Putin, we would be making India and China choose between doing business with Putin, or doing business with the West (NATO countries). But because putting India and China in this position would be bad for business, we don't do it.
I consider both political parties in the US to be only grudgingly supportive of Ukraine, up until the point where it actually costs us some economic pain.
Actions speak louder than words.
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I consider both political parties in the US to be only grudgingly supportive of Ukraine, up until the point where it actually costs us some economic pain.
Actions speak louder than words.
“It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.”
― Henry Kissinger
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“It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.”
― Henry Kissinger
[/quote]
Indeed fatal, but only if a country imagines America to be such a friend, that they can become dependent on them. Unfortunately, Europe has neglected its own defense for so long and depended on the Americans, that they have become vulnerable. And no one seems to have noticed that America is $35 trillion in debt and out of money (Washington DC has yet to realize this, as well, but it will become obvious to them at some point soon). Big changes will need to be made, in the near future.
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It is probably true that after receiving help, many do not make sufficient efforts after the crisis has passed to develop and strengthen themselves independently. Any union will be strong if all its participants are equal. But...
"We do not want escalation" - this is the White House's comment on the proposal to shoot down russian missiles from Polish territory. "It would not be good for either Ukrainians or Poles," White House spokesman for national security John Kirby told Polish Radio.
https://x.com/Marekwalkuski/status/1810802581695775128
There is the "Chicken Kiev" in the menu of a Useless Nations luncheon hosted by russia the day after russian forces bombed a children's hospital in Kyiv.
These are really sick people. Yesterday, during another long power outage, I was listening to the radio and tuned in to some russian radio station where they accused the Ukrainian authorities of using the tragedy after the July 8 rocket attack to ask the West for more weapons. At the same time, they consider war in general and a missile attack in particular to be completely normal.
However, why am I still surprised by this, if all this happened in Syria, where they bombed cities and hospitals in the same way and carried out repeated strikes while clearing the rubble of hospitals, which greatly increased the number of civilian victims.
My wife is having a hard time reading the news that two children died in a destroyed residential building, and their mother is in serious condition in the hospital. She, like any mother, cannot imagine how it is possible to survive the death of her own children.
I read a big analysis about bilateral agreements concluded between Ukraine and other countries in the field of security and support. Unfortunately, most agreements contain mainly declarations and statements, but are not binding. In the event of political changes, they will not oblige the new leaders of the signatory countries to anything. Therefore, NATO remains the only real opportunity to ensure security, but still inaccessible.
However, the security of our country depends not only on allies. The implementation of the agreements requires serious diplomatic, managerial and personnel efforts on the part of Ukraine itself. Therefore, how effective they will be depends on our leadership.
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/3881763-naviso-ukraini-bezpekovi-ugodi-ta-ci-zmozut-voni-perelamati-hid-vijni.html
Since the end of March, the russian federation has carried out many large-scale missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities - on almost all generating maneuvering capacities of TPPs and HPPs, as well as on many substations. These attacks resulted in the loss of approximately 9 GW of generation and, as a result, power shortages, which were dealt with through blackouts and imports from neighboring countries.
Last autumn, the government approved the "Regulations on the peculiarities of the import of electricity in the conditions of martial law in Ukraine", according to which enterprises are guaranteed the stability of energy supplies, if the volume of electricity imports in the structure of consumption is at least 30% from May to September and 50% from October to April. However, at the end of May of this year, the Cabinet of Ministers overruled the conditions and set the minimum import quota at the level of at least 80%.
Ukrainian industry will lose the last factors of competitiveness against the background of the rules of the need to import 80% of electricity to guarantee uninterrupted work.
https://gmk.center/ua/posts/import-dorohoi-elektroenerhii-pryzvede-do-zupynky-ukrainskoi-promyslovosti/
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But there is also good news. The heat and temperature changes do not affect me as much as I feared, and perhaps I have already gotten used to the fact that I will never be as energetic and strong as before.
The old car battery that Sergiy UT3UFD gave me provides at least 2 hours of operation for a "large" Icom IC-756pro3 radio at a power of 70W.
Kate officially entered the lyceum today and her score is more than 20 points higher than required for admission. Unfortunately, her best friend, who applied to the same lyceum, lacked only 1.5 points for this. There is hope that one of the applicants will refuse and there will be a place for her there.
Eric SM1TDE posted information about my book on the Sweden's radio amateurs website https://www.ssa.se/hf/war-diaries-av-us7ign/ and suggested a Zoom meeting with their local club SK1BL. This is a great honor for me and gives me a lot of encouragement.
Today there were two more air raids, which were without consequences in Kyiv, and power outages, which have become common. With God's help we will live another day.
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The air temperature today is +37C and there are few people on the street. I have to rack my brains about what food to buy so that it doesn’t spoil without a refrigerator. Cookies with tea work well. I went to the post office where a lonely red-haired girl was sitting. There was a generator rattling outside, which even ran the air conditioner. I joked that you can come to them to cool off. Power outages are growing and today reached continuous six hours. Energy experts say that soon electricity will be available for only four hours a day.
Today, Valerii Zaluzhny has started his role as the Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom. If the ambassador’s journey from Ukraine to the UK took two months, is it any wonder that the F-16s take so long to fly to Ukraine? I hope this mission in 2024 will not end in the same failure as the counter-offensive in 2023.
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perhaps I have already gotten used to the fact that I will never be as energetic and strong as before.
It happens to everyone if they live long enough, although the age it happens can vary quite a bit from person to person. As you say, we depend on God to get us through each day, and indeed, through life in its totality. My awareness of this fact increases with age.
Congratulations on Kate's achievement. Perhaps her friend will catch a break and get in, too. I have prayed that she does.
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Congratulations to Kate! (And to mom and dad!)
I agree with you guys about getting older. I’m scheduled for surgery soon to fix two relatively minor effects of being a “senior citizen”. It’s like when a car has high mileage, one expects that parts will degrade or fail and it’s only a matter of what and when. Unlike a car, new bodies are not yet available. Maybe next century.
However the really good news IS being older.
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It happens to everyone if they live long enough, although the age it happens can vary quite a bit from person to person. As you say, we depend on God to get us through each day, and indeed, through life in its totality. My awareness of this fact increases with age.
You're right, but I've become more careful about the signals my body sends me. It's hot again this morning and I've been feeling weak since the morning. I try to continue walking or cycling in the mornings while it's not too hot, but today I got home early. In the afternoon it’s +37C again and I can only lay on the coгch, listen to the radio and read books. Orwell's Burmese Days I finished in three days and today I started reading Taleb's The Black Swan.
Today is a IARU HF World Championship, but I’m not even trying to participate in it due to lack of electricity and strength.
Today I read that the authorities continue to strengthen the western border and have banned tourists from visiting popular tourist routes in the Carpathian Mountains.
"This is not our war": the results of the NATO anniversary summit - the West continues pootin's policy of appeasement. The 75th NATO Washington Summit was supposed to be a triumph for the Biden Administration before the elections in November. Instead, it turned into a sentence for Joe Biden, the Democratic Party and the United States on the international stage.
For Ukrainians, the 75th NATO Washington Summit was yet another disappointment. Thus, in the final declaration, the allies pledged to "support Ukraine on the irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including membership in NATO." We were promised more weapons and air defense. But for fear of provoking russia, the Alliance does not say when and under what conditions we can be accepted into NATO. Nobody wants to fight for Ukraine in the future, no matter how the war ends, given the russian nuclear arsenal. Because of fear of Moscow, the allies, led by the United States, do not lift restrictions on strikes with their weapons deep into russian territory.
There are more than 20 "public formations" operating in Odesa, which help employees of territorial recruitment centers. At the same time, their activities do not always comply with the law. This was announced by the editor-in-chief of "Intent" Valery Bolgan.
Bolgan said that the Odesa Regional Council appealed to the Cabinet of Ministers with a request to allow the reservation of 50% of the employees of Odesa's security agencies. Bolgan connects these "public organizations" and security agencies, because they often have the same names. https://odesa.novyny.live/dopomagaiut-ttsk-ale-diiut-za-mezhami-zakonu-v-odesi-ziavilisia-gromadski-formuvannia-181572.html
Thus, employees of private companies were involved in violating the law and the rights of the mobilized, and in return receive protection from serving in the army.
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Congratulations to Kate! (And to mom and dad!)
I agree with you guys about getting older. I’m scheduled for surgery soon to fix two relatively minor effects of being a “senior citizen”. It’s like when a car has high mileage, one expects that parts will degrade or fail and it’s only a matter of what and when. Unlike a car, new bodies are not yet available. Maybe next century.
However the really good news IS being older.
Thank you also!
The children's success gives me the hope that neither country nor friends can give you. In fact, compared to others, I am already happy because they do not cause problems. A difficult life made them understand many serious things early and stick to each other. Today they went together to buy Kate a laptop, for which she spent a long time collecting money from previous holidays. A lot of help from Guna will allow Kate to choose a good model. At least she deserved it. Previously, she used her mother's laptop for studying, but it is too old and large to take with her to the lyceum.
P.S. I hope your surgery will be safe and of the best quality.
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P.S. I hope your surgery will be safe and of the best quality.
Thank you.
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Heat waves and power outages continue, but rare air alarms do not result in actual attacks.
It’s very unusual that everything around is warm - the sofa, the toilet, the water in the tap.
My and Cicely’s program “Call Signs,” which we recorded back in 2022 for the BBC, continues to be heard in the Arles fine arts museum Reattu with French subtitles. Cicely had a hard time translating and communicating with the museum management, and I continue to wonder what incredible fate may await your creation. http://www.museereattu.arles.fr/eng/listening-balcont-july-august-2024.html
At the request of the Ukrainian side, Lithuania will stop free education for Ukrainian students. Despite the central government’s decisions, some higher education institutions – Vilnius College, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (Vilnius Tech) and Vytautas Magnus University (VDU) – have decided to continue to fully or partially fund the studies of Ukrainian students. https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2318823/lithuania-ending-free-tuition-for-ukrainian-students
The heads of the Baltic and Ukrainian public broadcasters on Thursday signed a memorandum on cooperation in crisis situations, aimed at creating mutual support mechanisms for the Baltic and Ukrainian public broadcasters: Lithuania’s LRT, Latvijas Televizija and Latvijas Radio in Latvia, Estonia’s ERR, and Ukraine’s Suspilne. https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2311428/baltic-ukrainian-public-broadcasters-sign-deal-on-cooperation-in-emergencies
Undoubtedly, the main event of recent days was the unsuccessful assassination attempt on Trump, which he used to his advantage, causing even more support from his fans and perhaps sympathy from the undecided. He shows courage and strength in opposition to Biden.
This once again reminded me of the lack of an alternative in Ukraine. And the point is not only that the authorities masterfully managed to remove the cancellation of elections and questions of their legitimacy from the agenda. This reveals the problem of the lack of public politicians in Ukraine who would enjoy the support of the people. A holy place is never empty, which introduces great uncertainty as to who and how will attempt to challenge the powers of the current government and what consequences this will lead to in a country whose people are already quite polarized by their participation and attitude towards the war.
However, the current government has also never made any attempt to explain its actions or discuss them with anyone. Every decision of the authorities is presented as the only possible and correct one. For example, in one of the interviews, Zelensky again refused to explain Zaluzhny’s resignation in any way and evaluate Sirsky’s effectiveness. Also, nothing was said about the other candidates or the motives for appointing Sirsky rather than someone else. The Constitution is on pause, the task of the people is to serve the authorities.
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I’m very glad that missiles have not been falling near you lately.
Very nice that Call Signs is still available at the museum. (I just checked and it’s still available on the BBC website too.)
On the topic of Lithuanian tuition for Ukrainians, well at least your authorities are (mostly) consistent in trying to force everyone to stay inside the country. /s.
I hope the agreement between the public broadcasters will not need to be exercised in any large way.
About the assassination attempt on Donald Trump:
It was horrific. Fortunately Trump sustained only a minor injury. However one bystander died trying to shield his loved ones, and two others are in still in critical condition, last I heard.
I believe that this cannot be and will not be tolerated by the country, despite some pundits opining that we are descending into a maelstrom of political violence. There is however a real risk of “stochastic terrorism” from extremely demonizing rhetoric and that must be curtailed by *everyone* with a public voice.
Investigations are ongoing but so far there’s been no disclosure of a motive. Offhand, from public information, the shooter appears not to have had a strong political interest but it’s very early in the investigation and that could change.
I pointed out to my 30-something son, who’s never seen such events, that a political motive is by no means a foregone conclusion. At least half the time by my estimate such people often have mental problems or wanted to gain infamy before their “suicide by cop”, or were angry at the world for their own failures, or a motive could not be established.
I’m old enough to well recall the assassination of President Kennedy in 1963 and subsequent assassinations of ML King, R Kennedy, paralyzing of G Wallace, and the later attempts on Presidents Ford and Reagan, who was injured. Those were chaotic times.
It’s quite obvious from the known facts, aerial photos, eyewitness accounts and videos that the combined efforts of local police and the US Secret Service were badly flawed, allowing the shooter carrying a rifle to gain access to an elevated position on the roof of a metal building only 130 yards away. That distance is a relatively easy shot with most rifles even by someone with modest practice, especially using a lightly recoiling 5.56 caliber (as I know from big game hunting experience).
Bystanders observed the shooter and told local police on scene about him but that was (apparently) not timely communicated to the USSS protective detail and their sniper teams on roofs behind the podium. The local police (apparently) went to find the shooter but by then it was too late.
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On the topic of Lithuanian tuition for Ukrainians, well at least your authorities are (mostly) consistent in trying to force everyone to stay inside the country. /s.
Their intentions lead to the opposite effect. Fewer and fewer people want to stay and fight for a country that treats them like this.
4 soldiers escaped from training and tried to cross the border with Moldova on foot, one was killed by border guards https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1020068-4-vijskovyh-vtekly-z-navchan-i-namagalys-pishky-perejty-kordon-z-moldovoyu-odnogo-vbyly
The authorities again disrupted the visit of former president Poroshenko and the “ES” deputies to the USA – a statement of “European Solidarity”. At a time when the world’s attention is focused on the dramatic events in the USA, the Ukrainian authorities quietly blocked the trip of the delegation of “European Solidarity” led by Petro Poroshenko to the pre-election Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where Republicans and representatives of more than fifty center-right political forces from around the world. https://eurosolidarity.org/2024/07/14/the-authorities-again-disrupted-the-visit-of-poroshenko-and-the-eu-deputies-to-the-usa-a-statement-of-european-solidarity/
So far, in the competition for restrictions on human rights, Ukraine is the undisputed leader in restrictions on movement and physical freedom for men and some women, and russia in restrictions on freedom of speech and access to information. Of course, no restrictions apply to representatives of the ruling regime.
Responding to a question about Poland's potential shooting down of russian missiles over the territory of Ukraine, Jens Stoltenberg said that this would not happen. According to him, this will be "interference in the war", and the North Atlantic Alliance does not want such a development. "NATO's policy remains unchanged - we will not participate in this conflict, we will not become part of it," he added. https://24tv.ua/dozvolyat-polshhi-zbivati-raketi-nad-ukrayinoyu-nato-vidpovili_n2596844
India on Monday raised with the Ukrainian Ambassador to India the remarks made by his President Volodymyr Zelensky against PM Narendra Modi during his russia visit. The MEA had summoned the Ukrainian envoy on Monday and raised the issue, ET has learnt. This clearly indicates New Delhi’s displeasure with the Ukrainian dispensation on the issue of Zelensky’s comments against the PM. It has also been learnt that India postponed a meeting of the joint working group on culture with Ukraine in the backdrop of the incident. Last week Zelensky had criticized Modi's meeting with russian President Vladimir pootin at his dacha, calling it a "devastating blow to peace efforts." He stated, "It is disheartening to see the leader of the world's largest democracy embrace the world's most notorious criminal in Moscow".
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-summons-envoy-to-raise-zelenskyys-criticism-of-modi-putin-meet/articleshow/111763232.cms
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In light of the discussion about the procedure for passing a medical commission during mobilization and numerous violations in this case, the information that appeared two years ago that the final beneficiaries of the medical information system Helsi used by doctors and hospitals in Ukraine, as well as one of the mobile operators Kyivstar are russian. https://forbes.ua/company/ugoda-iz-bagatma-nevidomimi-14122022-10093
But it seems that this does not bother anyone and all personal information about the health of future soldiers is available to the russians, as well as the possibility of manipulating it.
Some even consider formal medical examination and sending sick and old people to the front a deliberate state policy to get rid of such consumers of the state budget in the form of social and pension payments.
It was very interesting to listen to the Scientific and Practical Round Table "International Arbitration: a legal weapon against the aggression of the russian federation". https://www.iepd.kiev.ua/?p=17323
In essence, the existing mechanisms of compensation for the damage caused by russia were discussed, among which international arbitration was only one such tool. An unexpected effect of the sanctions applied by the Ukrainian authorities against russians and russian companies was found. In the case of receiving money from sanctioned persons during the implementation of international arbitration decisions on the account of the Ukrainian debt collector, such money is blocked by the Ukrainian bank and is subsequently subject to recovery in favor of the state. Because of this, the use of this mechanism is meaningless for Ukrainian business.
It is also necessary to include the costs of social rehabilitation of veterans in the damage to be compensated by russia. For example, a young person who has lost limbs can only count on a pension of $400 per month. Funding for prosthetics is also very limited. Ukraine does not have such money, and it is russia's obvious fault for the appearance of such additional costs.
Unfortunately, during the third participant’s speech, the electricity was turned off and I was unable to listen to the rest.
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Yesterday there was a thunderstorm and there was an air attack at night. Something was shot down very close and loudly, but there were no casualties or destruction in Kyiv. At the front, the russians are gradually seizing new territories, despite inspiring articles in Western media that they are running out of people and weapons. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/07/17/russias-new-artillery-piece-is-a-70-year-old-behemoth-firing-north-korean-shells/
I think I heard this already last year.
The Ukrainian authorities also report on the success of mobilization and the next formed brigades to be sent to the front, but nothing is heard about those who returned.
Thinking people are surprised by the government's attitude towards Ukrainians. Employers no longer want to keep people at work who can be mobilized at any time without the possibility of return (demobilization). Nothing personal - this is business. Ukrainians go to war, and instead of them, non-residents of Ukraine, who are not subject to mobilization, will work.
Serhii Cherednyk, a nuclear physicist and leading engineer of the Institute of Nuclear Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, was killed in the war on June 28. This shows that no one needs smart people here. In developed countries, people of this profession are under the protection of special services, but in our country they mobilized and nobody care. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/viyni-zaginuv-vidatniy-inzhener-institutu-1719500640.html
The Ministry of Defense reported that it had voluntarily updated the data of 4,690,496 conscripts. https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=804902775155510&set=a.234922828820177
This is slightly less than half of the official number of Ukrainian men aged 18-60. This allows the authorities to count on the possibility of continuing hostilities for several more years, provided that the west supports them with weapons and money. The experience of Syria shows that with external support, the war can last a very long time. And any war, civil or not, is always the same - some fight and die, while others hold power and earn money.
But Trump's election company makes his victory more and more likely, and his position regarding the war does not suggest its prolongation.
The German cabinet passed its 2025 budget on Wednesday after months of wrangling, even though a 17 billion euro ($18.6 billion) gap between projected spending and revenue has still to be covered. Next year's budget will be less generous to Ukraine, with the government cutting military aid for the country to 4 billion euros from around 8 billion euros in 2024, according to a draft seen by Reuters. Germany expects Ukraine will be able to fund the bulk of its military needs with $50 billion in loans from the Group of Seven backed by proceeds of frozen russian assets. It hopes, therefore, that funds earmarked for Ukraine will not be fully used. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-coalition-set-pass-2025-budget-mid-term-financial-plan-2024-07-17/
It is significant that in two years the idea of foreclosure on the frozen assets of russians has already been transformed into providing Ukraine with a loan secured by frozen assets. I am sure that this money has long been used by russia according to the scheme that is used in Ukraine to transfer money to the occupied territory. You find people in Kyiv who are doing business with someone in the occupied territory for example in Donetsk and who owe them money. You give money to people in Kyiv and their debtors in Donetsk give the same amount to the person to whom you want to transfer the money. They charge you a small percentage, but everyone wins in this scheme. You can transfer money, the business can carry out mutual settlements. I also don’t see any big problems for russia using this money under an agreement with the banks in which accounts they are. In Ukraine, a scheme is used in which the owner of seized property can continue to use it for a bribe. Why don’t the owners/management of banks, with the consent of the authorities, for a small bribe of several billion, do the same as the officials who manage seized assets in Ukraine?
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I came across an interesting opinion that russians expect nothing from pootin’s war. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/15/russia-public-war-ukraine-putin-peace/
However, it would be more correct to say “from the war.” This war is the same for pootin as for every russian, who diligently pretends that there is no war and it does not concern him. But the author of this article should ask the russians not only the question “do they want the war to end?”, but also ask them whether they are ready to return all the occupied territories along with Crimea and compensate for the damage caused? And then the real attitude of the russians towards the war and everything that they are doing together with pootin will immediately become clear.
Despite the return to the system of one nuclear power unit, the situation with outages did not improve. Ukrenergo worsened the power outage schedule due to the failure of equipment at two energy facilities at once due to damage from missile attacks, and three more transformer substations at the nuclear plant burned down due to heat and overload. https://biz.liga.net/ua/all/tek/novosti/ukrenerho-pohirshylo-hrafiky-vidkliuchen-svitla-znovu-vyishlo-z-ladu-obladnannia
I took the risk of buying milk yesterday, but it turned sour and I will have to make pancakes using it.
Due to savings on generators and the heat in Kyiv, the number of food poisonings has tripled in a week. Retail outlets don't always run the equipment even if they have it, causing food in their refrigerators to spoil and consumers then complaining of digestive disorders. https://kiev.informator.ua/uk/ekonomiya-na-generatorah-ta-speka-u-kiyevi-za-tizhden-vtrichi-zrosla-kilkist-harchovih-otruyen
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a law that gives the Cabinet of Ministers the right to introduce a moratorium on payments on the external state debt until October 1, 2024. This happened on the eve of the maturity of coupons on government bonds. https://finance.liga.net/ua/ekonomika/novosti/rada-rozghliane-mozhlyvist-moratoriiu-na-vyplaty-za-derzhavnym-borhom
The lack of money prompts the government to raise taxes. Offered:
- increase the military tax rate from 1.5% to 5% for individuals;
- introduce a military tax rate for legal entities in the amount of 1% of income.
In addition, the government proposes to establish a military levy on some operations. These proposals were implemented in February 2024 within the framework of the IMF program. Then it was necessary to find sources of income in the amount of 0.5% of GDP. In particular:
- 5% of the value of bank metals;
- 30% of the cost of jewelry;
- 15% of the cost of cars;
- 5% of income from the sale of real estate by individuals;
- 5% of the tariff for the use of mobile communication.
It is also proposed to lower the threshold for import VAT taxation of international parcels from EUR 150 to EUR 45
https://www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2024/07/18/716819/
In the first reading, the parliament also supported the draft law on the possibility of "paying back" for corruption. https://news.liga.net/ua/politics/news/rada-u-pershomu-chytanni-pidtrymala-zakonoproiekt-pro-mozhlyvist-vidkupytysia-za-koruptsiiu
The authorities also obliged providers of electronic communication services to provide physical infrastructure objects of electronic communication networks with mobile installations or batteries for the first 72 hours of operation without electricity. https://borgexpert.com/news/pryjniato-rishennia-dlia-pokrashchennia-mobilnoho-zv-iazku-pid-chas-vidkliuchen-elektroenerhii
At whose expense it should be done and whether it is technically possible at all is not reported.
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The air temperature has dropped a little, but we still shouldn’t forget that it’s the middle of summer. I again have depression and apathy from not understanding what and how to do. Yesterday I spoke with my colleague who complained that it is impossible to achieve the protection of people's rights from bodies that are legally obliged to do this and are funded for this. He sees the reasons for this in the complete impunity of officials and believes that such a crisis of state power calls into question the ability of its continued existence.
There are rumors that the soldiers are in no hurry to fight diligently after Zelensky’s statement that with the support of allies, Ukraine can try to end the hot stage of the war by the end of this year. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4ng93y6eyjo People decided that this meant concluding a peace agreement and there was no point in dying today if the war would end tomorrow.
Unfortunately, people continue to die after visiting mobilization centers without even having time to get to the front. https://informator.ua/uk/v-odesi-pomer-34-richniy-cholovik-yakogo-gospitalizuvali-zakrivavlenim-z-miscevogo-tck
At the briefing, the head of the Main Personnel Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Roman Horbach, said that after the term "limited fitness" was removed from the legislation, everyone is undergoing re-examination. As of today, less than 10% of citizens with limited fitness have been determined to be unfit for military service. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1001513.html
People joke that even Jesus did not reach this level of treatment and are waiting for medical commissions to start bringing the dead back to life, because after being wounded, soldiers return to the front, not home.
Former President Donald Trump said he “had a very good phone call” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday. The call between the two leaders, who have had a complicated relationship, marks their first conversation since Trump left the White House and comes the day after he formally accepted the Republican Party’s nomination for president. It also comes amid concerns in Europe about what Trump’s policy toward the russia-Ukraine war would be if he were to win the presidential election in November.
“President Zelenskyy of Ukraine and I had a very good phone call earlier today. He congratulated me on a very successful Republican National Convention and becoming the Republican nominee for President of the United States,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “He condemned the heinous assassination attempt last Saturday and remarked about the American people coming together in the spirit of Unity during these times.”
Trump continued, “I appreciate President Zelensky for reaching out because I, as your next President of the United States, will bring peace to the world and end the war that has cost so many lives and devastated countless innocent families. Both sides will be able to come together and negotiate a deal that ends the violence and paves a path forward to prosperity.” https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/donald-trump-zelensky-phone-call-2024/index.html
There was a statement on social networks that US Vice Presidential candidate on Donald Trump’s team, J.D. Vance, refused a telephone conversation with the head of Zelensky’s Office, Ermak. https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1814037471841194374
The reliability of the information in the post is questionable and you should wait for confirmation. But if this is true, then this gives hope for Ukraine...
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The Trump statement is not surprising. As I have mentioned several times, despite any political rhetoric, both parties support an independent Ukraine and will continue to provide aid, accordingly.
Be well, my friend.
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The Trump statement is not surprising. As I have mentioned several times, despite any political rhetoric, both parties support an independent Ukraine and will continue to provide aid, accordingly.
Be well, my friend.
Yes I agree. It's like treatment. Each doctor has a different approach and results.
Thank you! Just today I thought and decided that about half of the time I don't feel well and the other half I don't feel bad. It seems to me that last summer I felt even better, and maybe this year it is worse because of the abnormal heat. On the other hand, I now manage with a minimum of medication. My daughter says that it could be worse, so I have to think that everything is fine)
Kate is at a difficult age now and she often enrages her mother. I hear more about her achievements and everything is smoothed out by the distance, but sometimes I get the impression that I am talking to myself.
“The death of one man is a just death, the death of two millions is a statistic.” — Erich Maria Remarque, The Black Obelisk.
Iryna Farion died today after yesterday's assassination. A former Ukrainian MP, 60-year-old linguistic professor was known for the statement that “true patriots” of Ukraine should not speak russian under any circumstances. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp387p1zrgpo
Many called her a nationalist and someone who divides society, although I consider her a consistent patriot. Despite the controversial attitude towards her, the majority recognizes her devotion to Ukraine and the Ukrainian language. She was a truly unique person, the likes of which there are no more in Ukraine. It also saddens me that anyone can be shot on the street simply because of their views, although such cases usually occur when there is a dire need to divert the public's attention from something more important.
However, death in Ukraine is something completely ordinary.
After the body of a Ukrainian was found near the border with Ukraine in Moldova, apparently shot by Ukrainian border guards, the police of Moldova published a comment that the investigation is ongoing, and the body was sent for examination due to decomposition. https://www.facebook.com/border.gov.md/posts/pfbid02PL5ZqdUzvQALA9dafRhfK7QcFA7YZmb9mHMJAG3tq1vqaaKrZQBZkb7Z59qbRhykl?rdid=QNv8dMpfkfxJ9VnU
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The temperature has dropped a little and is now around +30C during the day. Today it rained and thunderstormed. Every day Colin G3ZAF and I turn on the radio at 10:00 UTC and try to hear each other and again fail. However, on Saturdays we traditionally have meetings in Zoom where we continue to communicate and improve my English.
I sometimes communicate with distant stations on the radio, today with Japan JI1CAZ. But we barely heard each other and the QSO was short.
The main news is Biden's refusal to continue the presidential race in favor of his vice president, Kamala Harris. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/21/politics/inside-bidens-exit-from-2024-race/index.html
Many believe that her chances of winning elections are even less than Biden’s, but I would prefer to wait for the official results. Moreover, bullets can make significant adjustments to the plans of any candidate.
Facing difficult frontline reality and the prospect of Trump in the White House, Zelensky hints at negotiations with russia. struck an unusually subdued tone as he addressed his nation this week, hinting at a willingness to negotiate with russia for the first time since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion more than two years ago.
Zelensky suggested Moscow should send a delegation to the next peace summit that he hopes to hold in November. russia was not invited to the previous peace conference, held in Switzerland last month, as Zelensky said any talks could only happen after a russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
Kyiv is currently facing the double whammy of a difficult frontline situation and political uncertainty over the level of future support from Ukraine’s closest allies. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/20/europe/ukraine-zelensky-uncertainty-russia-negotiations-intl/index.html
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky shared information about daily losses at the front. He stressed that he receives daily data on the number of dead and wounded, and these numbers are not decreasing, highlighting the negative trend. https://informator.ua/uk/zelenskiy-povidomiv-pro-negativnu-tendenciyu-u-lyudskih-vtratah-ukrajini-na-viyni
Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko believes that the coming months will be "very difficult" for Volodymyr Zelensky, and that he risks "committing his life by political suicide." Klitschko also said that the president will probably have to organize a referendum to discuss territorial compromises with russia with Ukrainians. But he added that he was "not sure" that Zelensky "is ready to give up the centralized power in his hands, which martial law guaranteed him from the first day of the russian invasion." https://www.corriere.it/esteri/24_luglio_21/sindaco-kiev-intervista-a4020136-15d7-45ec-82a2-fc0a50d83xlk.shtml
Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson published a large article in which he is sure that Trump, if elected President of the United States, has the strength and bravery to save Ukraine and end this appalling war. He also believes that pootin would have to pull back at least to the pre-invasion boundaries of 2022, and to avoid future conflict and uncertainty the rest of Ukraine would have to be recognised as a free country, able to choose its destiny within the EU and Nato. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13652007/BORIS-JOHNSON-convinced-Trump-strength-bravery-save-Ukraine-end-appalling-war.html
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I sincerely hope that Johnson is correct about Trump vigorously supporting Ukraine, if elected. If all he did differently was remove weapons use restrictions it would be a huge step forward for Ukraine.
Unfortunately however Boris cannot know if Trump meant what he said since he lies frequently and promises the moon. He is also famously transactional and erratic, so even if he did mean it, when the day actually comes he may do something very different or nothing at all.
What is needed is resolute principled support and action. Perhaps he will do exactly that, and I hope so.
As Trump is fond of saying, “we will see what happens” - if and when.
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Both parties will vigorously support Ukraine militarily, and I think having any president who's mind is operating will be a step up from rule by whatever committee has been making decisions the past couple of years. I would include both Trump or Harris as a step forward in pursuing bold enough action to bring this to a resolution. The half-measures of the recent past are not getting any results other than continuing slaughter.
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Both parties will vigorously support Ukraine militarily, and I think having any president who's mind is operating will be a step up from rule by whatever committee has been making decisions the past couple of years. I would include both Trump or Harris as a step forward in pursuing bold enough action to bring this to a resolution. The half-measures of the recent past are not getting any results other than continuing slaughter.
I hope you are correct.
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I would include both Trump or Harris as a step forward in pursuing bold enough action to bring this to a resolution. The half-measures of the recent past are not getting any results other than continuing slaughter.
In general I agree with you, but the point of view is very dependent on the beholder. For example, commander-in-chief Col Gen Oleksandr Syrsky is full of optimism, as befits a military man. However, he does not hide that two and half years into full-scale onslaught, the russians are much better resourced. They have more of everything: tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, soldiers. Their original 100,000-strong invasion force has grown to 520,000, he said, with a goal by the end of 2024 of 690,000 men.
“When it comes to equipment, there is a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 in their favour,” he said. Since 2022 the number of russian tanks has “doubled” – from 1,700 to 3,500. Artillery systems have tripled, and armoured personnel carriers gone up from 4,500 to 8,900. “The enemy has a significant advantage in force and resources,” Syrskyi said. “The Kremlin’s casualties were “three times” higher than Ukraine’s”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/24/i-know-we-will-win-and-how-ukraines-top-general-on-turning-the-tables-against-russia
This is already closer to reality than the 1 to 8 that the president spoke about earlier, but it still does not take into account the different quality of the soldiers in the army, which changes dynamically and is not in favor of Ukraine. Maybe I sound too pessimistic, but I just look at the map and see who is successful regardless of Western help. In general, it is noticeable that many career officers feel better than ever and will obviously be sad if the war ends quickly.
Wake up to threat of world war, Ukraine envoy tells West. https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/wake-up-to-threat-of-world-war-ukraine-envoy-tells-west-h28qtncx0
Zaluzhny’s first public speech as ambassador to the UK took place on the RUSI Land Warfare Conference, but unfortunately there is nothing about this on the official website of the embassy https://uk.mfa.gov.ua/en and only a paid version of the article in the Telegraph. When I said that Ukraine, which used the war as a pretext to limit the rights and freedoms of citizens, could become an example for democracies, it was confirmed in the words of Zaluzhny: "Society must agree to temporarily give up a range of freedoms for the sake of survival. Modern wars, unfortunately, are total. They require the efforts not only of the army, but also of society as a whole".
It is obvious that Zaluzhny will focus on the military side, but it is equally important to remember that for 142 thousand Ukrainian refugees in the UK their visas will expire next year, and their support has already cost more than 2.6 billion dollars. Therefore, in addition to military assistance, the ambassador needs to look for ways to help refugees in the context of the shortage of money that Labor faced when it came to power. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/07/18/zaluzhnys-new-ambassador-role-comes-at-critical-moment-for-ukraines-supporters-a85755
Ukraine said on Monday it had reached an agreement in principle with a group of creditors to restructure $20 billion of international bonds, bringing the war-torn country closer to an unprecedented debt rework. Ukraine's announcement comes just over a week before a two-year debt suspension agreement struck in 2022 is due to run out and marks the first time a country has embarked on a debt restructuring during a full-scale war. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ukraine-reaches-preliminary-deal-with-bondholder-group-20-bln-debt-restructure-2024-07-22/
For the first time during the full-scale war and for the first time in the last eight years, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine visited China. Dmytro Kuleba was on a three-day visit at the invitation of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The main topic of discussion was the search for ways to stop russian aggression and China's possible role in achieving a sustainable peace. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cnd08lj83p9o
Wang Yi noted that the crisis in Ukraine has entered its third year, and the conflict is still ongoing and there are risks of escalation and spillover. China has always been firmly committed to promoting a political solution to the crisis. President Xi Jinping proposed the "Four Principles" and provided important guidelines for it. On this basis, China and Brazil jointly issued a "six-point consensus" covering the "three principles" of conflict management, the "three elements" of peace negotiations, the "three issues" of humanitarian protection, and the prevention of nuclear weapons. Risks and ensuring the stability of the production and supply chain is the greatest common denominator of the international community and has received widespread feedback and support. China believes that the resolution of all conflicts must ultimately return to the negotiating table.
Kuleba noted that Ukraine attaches great importance to China's opinion and carefully studied the "six-point consensus" reached by China and Brazil on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. Ukraine is willing and ready for dialogue and negotiations with russia.
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/wjbzhd/202407/t20240724_11459443.shtml
https://mfa.gov.ua/news/dmitro-kuleba-spravedlivij-mir-v-ukrayini-vidpovidaye-strategichnim-interesam-kitayu
Today I woke up again with the feeling that there was a heavy stone lying on my chest. Perhaps this is just a sign that it will rain, but I can’t count on activity today. Searching for a job on the websites of international organizations does not lead to success. If we discard vacancies that require official employment or travel in Ukraine, then there are few positions left that require experience in similar positions.
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I can't figure out the reason for my changing states, but today I woke up without this stone on my chest. Maybe it's the weather changes or, as they wrote in the news yesterday, the deterioration of air quality in Kyiv https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1022093-povitrya. So today I felt surprisingly good and even rode my bicycle more than usual. Also, the electricity was not turned off all day today. The Minister of Energy said that a repaired power unit of the nuclear power plant was connected to the power grid https://weukraine.tv/exclusive/halushchenko-sohodni-pusk-atomnoho-bloka-vidchula-vsja-ukrajina-zavtra-situatsija-bude-shche-krashchoju/
Maryna finished another business course, although, according to her, all such courses say the same thing, and she herself could teach at such courses.
As always, turning on the radio on schedule in recent days, I did not expect to hear Colin G3ZAF, but suddenly I heard him loud. We barely had time to exchange greetings when the propagation suddenly closed. Later, he went out by car and tried to make QSO with his mobile antenna. I never heard him, but my Icom IC-756pro3 allows you to listen to two frequencies at the same time, and while I was waiting for Colin to appear, I heard and made QSO with Joe NJ1P when he operated W1AW. He was surprisingly loud. Therefore, today can be called a good day.
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“I heard and made QSO with Joe NJ1P when he operated W1AW. He was surprisingly loud. Therefore, today can be called a good day.”
I've worked quite a few visiting ops at W1AW. Their signals are ALWAYS stellar. One can only wish to have such an amazing complement of radios, towers, and antennas!
“Maybe I sound too pessimistic, but”
No one can blame you. We all feel a similar pessimism at times. With all our local political shit on every type of media, it's harder to find details about Ukraine. There is a radio show on local FM broadcast once a week that transmit news from Ukraine in English. But the same show features news from around Europe which also features information about Ukraine, and their struggles to fund or otherwise provide support to Ukraine. He also plays a wonderful mix of European music in many different languages that I enjoy. Don't fault yourself as you are only human.
Ukraine, which used the war as a pretext to limit the rights and freedoms of citizens, could become an example for democracies, it was confirmed in the words of Zaluzhny: "Society must agree to temporarily give up a range of freedoms for the sake of survival. Modern wars, unfortunately, are total. They require the efforts not only of the army, but also of society as a whole".
My own nation succumbed to a very similar reality during WWII. The draft (forced to join the military) was in full force, yet most volunteered. Many folks left behind found themselves working collectively in support rolls. My grandparents we're lucky since they had land to grow food on, animals to eat or sell. Travel was difficult, and driving your own car was rationed. No Sunday joy rides for many years after. And neighbors helped neighbors.
My niece has been accepted into a youth challenge academy. She can not speak for the next two weeks (like a military boot camp) and this is her first time away from home. She is 17. I'm extremely pleased that she is so determined to change her world for the better. I write her daily so she will have mail from outside to help her with her home sickness. She is also considering a military hitch after graduation which would serve her well the whole of her life.
I met with the surgeon who did surgery on me in January. The surgery didn't get all the bad tissue and now tells me a second surgery will have to happen. Now I wait for paperwork from our veterans administration.
Last week, a vehicle hit a power line and some 7500 homes were in the dark. I rolled my generator out and turned the key and away it went, so quiet that when I came into the house, I couldn't hear it. Honda generators are great. Then I started thinking about you Wlad, and this generator would be useless there since it makes 120VAC not 240VAC like your grid. I had put 10 hours of service on it over two days prior to this outage, but there was still ¼ tank of fuel left. So from 6pm to 2:30am, it powered my home. The street lights came on and I turned it off and went to bed. So for 2.5 gallons of gas, this generator will power my home (and repeater) 18+ hours!
Next day I finally did first oil change, and a new sparky plug and snuggled it back into it's nest for next time.
Western coast of US and much of Canada is on fire. Lightning sparked another fire about 40km east of here, very near our highest repeater site. Containment is starting to get better, but it's going to be a rough year for many due to wild land fires. Then Tuesday, I heard about an aircraft crash. It was a flight to bring in an aircraft mechanic to our firefighting helicopter base – two souls lost and sparked another fire. Response was quick on the fire, but took a full day to recover the bodies down the steep terrain.
On the bright side, as August nears, I find I am excited about an up coming picnic we are planning for our regional radio club (w6ccn.) Rented an entire park. Folks will be coming in from several states. Hope to make this an annual event! Will be a lot of fun to see the faces of all the hams I have only heard from for last several years.
I worry about you and for you Wlad. Guess I inherited the “worry gene” from my mum. I'm naturally good at it!
73
Jaye
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Hi Jaye! Thank you for reply!
Sorry to hear about your surgery, but apparently all surgeons are the same. Mine also didn't give any guarantees and said that if it doesn't work out this time, we'll do another operation. At least that's honest.
Good news and bad news. Life goes on and of course for people what happens next to them is more important than what happens on the other side of the globe. This is normal.
As for mobilization, the problem is not in it, but in how it happens. I don't understand what's the point of ruining the lives of millions if you only need a hundred thousand? Even the russians didn't do that.
The army itself also seems to have remained Soviet, run by Soviet officers and the Supreme Commander, who are known for not wanting to hear bad news. https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-11-july-2024-mobutu-syndrome
However, what we see is only the tip of the iceberg. I recently read an interview for the BBC with the famous Ukrainian filmmaker Oleg Sentsov, who was in a russian prison and is now serving in the army. I think his words can be trusted:
"We have many achievements in the use of drones, we have developed new combat tactics, but at the management level we remain the old Soviet army. There is no national planning and standards at the general level. We continue to live by statutes written in the 1990s and 2000s. In general, this is a continuation of the old Soviet tradition. If we go to NATO, we have to use their protocols.
In Ukraine now, most of the battalion commanders are combat officers. But there are generals in the headquarters who continue to work in the old way. No one wants to break bad news upstairs. "The situation is difficult, but under control" - it has already become a meme. We do not have an after action review procedure, that is, an analysis of errors after an operation at the platoon, company, battalion level. You are expected to either complete the task and then you are good, or you are not. But war cannot always have a positive result. It is necessary to understand why the result is negative.
We had a counteroffensive in the south in the summer of 2023. Nowhere after that was there a closed discussion among the military about exactly what went wrong.
Each general has his own army. Everyone is "Zhukov" or "Napoleon". He is trying to report to the top that he did this and that and that. But how many people he lost is not important.
There were some slogans and PR campaigns. But in fact it is the same Soviet army.
There are small units where such standards are implemented. There are separate brigades where the commander focuses a lot on this. There are units that do "double bookkeeping", that is, they work according to the NATO TLP protocol (Troop leading procedure - a NATO standard that determines the sequence of actions of a company or platoon commander during a combat mission. - Ed.) and upstairs they report, as required by our charter.
So we will never join NATO."
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cd1rmpjelvro
On July 24, around 2:00 p.m., a number of observation posts of the 1st and 3rd battalions of the 31st brigade were completely surrounded in the east of Ukraine. The brigade commander never gave the order to break through, so the personnel who were in that area confronted him with the fact that the boys would break through with a fight. This incident should serve as a reminder to many commanders not to neglect personnel and trust the NCOs and officers on the direct line of action. https://v-variant.com.ua/unochi-biytsiam-31-ombr-vdalosia-z-boiamy-prorvatysia-z-otochennia-u-rayoni-prohresu/
Against the background of fragments of a russian drone discovered in Romania, NATO declared that it had no information about a "deliberate attack" on the territory of the Alliance. This was stated by the representative of the Alliance, writes Sky News. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-putin-russia-moscow-latest-updates-sky-news-blog-12541713?postid=8020170#liveblog-body
It seems that faith in the defense of NATO is falling rapidly. So I'm not surprised that Poland could become one of Europe’s most prominent security actors. Between 2022 and 2023, its defence budget grew in real terms by 46 per cent. In 2025, Warsaw plans a further 10 per cent increase in its defence budget. But for Poland to take on a leading role in European defence and security efforts, simply increasing defence spending will not be enough. It will also need to develop a long-term, strategic vision for defence, which guides procurement and capability development. https://www.almendron.com/tribuna/poland-could-be-europes-rising-star-on-defence-and-security/
The President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, said that it would be impossible to hold negotiations on the end of the war in Ukraine without russia and China at the same table. https://ruski.radio.cz/prezident-chehii-bez-uchastiya-rossii-i-kitaya-mirnye-peregovory-budut-8823805
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There were again two drone attacks during the night, but I saw no mention of the consequences, although not all of them were shot down. In fact, I didn't even wake up. The new sirens got louder and after the attack ended, a male voice with strange sound effects announces it. Most people have their windows open because of the heat and you get woken up twice, unless of course there are explosions in between. It sounds psychedelic and people are against it, but who hears them...
Representatives of contracting companies, which received contracts for housing restoration projects with state funds - from the Fund for the Elimination of the Consequences of Armed Aggression, reported that since the end of last year they began to lack funds to complete their projects. This was the result of the order of the State Tax Service to collect VAT on previously concluded restoration contracts at the expense of the fund. Contractors call the reason for the problem the loose interpretation of certain legal norms by the State Tax Service. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/pidryadniki-shcho-vidbudovuyut-zhitlo-zamovlennya-1721925817.html
Against the background of the decision of the Cabinet of Ministers to recognize as critically important public organizations that are executors of international aid projects on foreign grants, and to reserve all their employees from mobilization, the Government's position on this issue with respect to lawyers remains unclear. Lawyers perform an important constitutional function of protecting Ukrainian citizens in the state. The Constitution of Ukraine guarantees everyone the right to professional legal assistance. In cases provided by law, this assistance is provided free of charge. This right, enshrined in Article 59 of the Constitution of Ukraine, is not subject to restriction, even under martial law. For the proper realization of this right, the Institute of Advocacy operates in Ukraine. Only a lawyer can represent another person in court, as well as provide protection against criminal charges.
By ensuring the reservation of judges, prosecutors, employees of pre-trial investigation bodies and law enforcement agencies, while bypassing lawyers, the state violates guarantees of respect for human rights and endangers the proper functioning of one of the branches of government. According to the Constitution, justice in Ukraine is impossible without the participation of lawyers! https://unba.org.ua/news/9340-spozhivachiv-grantiv-zabronyuvali-a-yak-shodo-advokativ.html
At the same time, there is a practice of removing lawyers from participation in the provision of legal aid to mobilized citizens by officials of mobilization centers. And this leads to a violation of the human right to protection and legal aid, provided for by the Constitution of Ukraine.
Today, unpopular mobilization measures are on the rise, when the actions of individual representatives of the mobilization centers and police bodies actually go beyond their powers, lead to gross violations of the law, violations of human rights and freedoms, which has negative consequences both for the image of the state and the Armed Forces, and in terms of compliance legislative requirements in the military sphere.
In addition, the systematic violation of the rights and freedoms of a person and a citizen on the part of mobilization centers employees leads to the demotivation of citizens to fulfill the constitutional duty of protecting the Motherland. To a large extent, violations are caused by the fact that conscripts are unprotected and cannot use the help of a lawyer.
At the same time, lawyers themselves remain unprotected in many cases. Lawyers constantly report violations of the professional rights and guarantees of legal practice by employees of the mobilization centers, interference in professional activity, violence against defenders, illegal deprivation of liberty, confiscation of personal belongings, including those containing lawyer's secrets, in connection with the implementation of professional legal activity. https://unba.org.ua/news/9330-porushennya-prav-advokativ-u-tck-naau-iniciyue-zustrich-z-vijs-kovoyu-vladoyu.html
Hungary will block the €6.5B military aid financing program for Ukraine under the European Peace Fund until Ukraine resumes supplies of russian oil to Hungary, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó said. He emphasized that the association agreement between the EU and Ukraine clearly states that Ukraine cannot entirely or partially interrupt the transit of energy carriers through its territory to EU countries. Szijjarto believes it will be difficult for the EC to support Ukraine in this matter, but Hungary will not limit itself to just a complaint to the EU. “The EU should put pressure on Ukraine to resume Lukoil oil supplies to the EU,” the diplomat said. https://ubn.news/hungary-is-blackmailing-ukraine-by-blocking-e6-5b-in-military-aid-due-to-the-cessation-of-russian-oil-transit-to-the-eu/
24 Jul 2024: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ukraine's Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'C' from 'CC'. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-ukraine-to-c-24-07-2024
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After the "elections" in Ukraine in 2019, I'm watching the elections in the USA as if it is another Netflix series, where great actors naturally play politicians according to a script with unexpected twists and intrigue until the last seconds. But why do I get the feeling that this is all a pre-planned performance, and the real actors remain behind the scenes?
Sometimes it seems that the only difference between authoritarian regimes and democratic regimes is that in the former people know exactly who is f*cking their ass, and in the latter the population is not even informed of this, showing only hired animators.
And all this is happening against the background of complete uncertainty in Ukraine, the situation in which has remained surprisingly stable for 2.5 years. And there is no guarantee that the situation will change after the elections in the USA. On the other hand, they will determine the last possible signatory of any agreement that will determine the situation not only in Ukraine for the coming years.
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It was good to read your post Jaye. Kudos to your daughter, she seems like a very determined person. I hope your upcoming surgery is successful and without complications.
On WW2 here, let’s never forget the unconstitutional concentration camp imprisonment of US citizens of Japanese descent because of hysteria and racism. Shamefully, the Supreme Court of that time approved it. In addition to being incarcerated for years, most of those poor people lost their homes, businesses and money and had to start over after the war.
Wlad, if you feel like our elections are a Netflix movie, then to me they have seemed like a long nightmare episode of the 1950s horror TV series Twilight Zone. (Please forgive my use of an American TV reference here.) if you know of the series, perhaps you are aware of the famous mass hysteria episode “The Monsters are due on Maple Street” in which a ham radio and antenna are briefly involved.
No lawyers? I suppose one is expected to simply watch some You Tube videos to prepare, and then go to court pro se. /s
It’s very disappointing to read that the Soviet style military decision making process is still so pervasive in Ukraine. When facing a numerically superior enemy like Russia with their Soviet methods, it’s clearly madness to use the same ponderous, inefficient tactics. But what else to expect when appointing the same sort of people.
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Wlad, if you feel like our elections are a Netflix movie, then to me they have seemed like a long nightmare episode of the 1950s horror TV series Twilight Zone. (Please forgive my use of an American TV reference here.) if you know of the series, perhaps you are aware of the famous mass hysteria episode “The Monsters are due on Maple Street” in which a ham radio and antenna are briefly involved.
Luckily we have YouTube and can watch this episode. Thanks for the mention!
The last couple of days the power has been almost constant, although the strong winds pose a new danger to the electrical grid. But other than the loud noise in my area, the wind does not cause any other problems. My antenna is fluttering in the wind, but it is securely attached.
The day before yesterday there was an IOTA contest, but I had a feeling that I would miss it. First I talked on the phone with a friend for a long time, then with my son, and when I ate and finally turned on the radio, the power was immediately turned off. On Sunday, I did not even try, although the power was on all day. You need to listen to what fate tells you. But yesterday, despite the fact that it was Sunday, I went on LinkedIn and saw a vacancy that suited me. I wrote to HR and she answered me right away. By the evening she had my resume and I diligently answered the questions of the tests she gave me.
Today I had an online interview where I learned that they know me and have good recommendations about me. Then I remembered that we really crossed paths in several projects. I still suggested that we meet in person again, but it seems like this is another sign...
I also passed the English test yesterday and found out that I have level C1. https://www.efset.org/
Penny Pritzker, the US special representative for the reconstruction of Ukraine, also arrived in Kyiv today. This was reported by the US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink on the X social network (Twitter).
"Together with the heads of the companies Amentum, Clayco Inc and Westinghouse Nuclear, we strive to help Ukraine build its own future. A transparent business environment and a strong rule of law are the key to restoring Ukraine and its path to the EU," the ambassador emphasized. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/07/29/7191111/
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Defying sanctions, russia has obtained nearly $4 billion in restricted chips since the war began in Ukraine. Many were shipped through a cluster of shell companies in Hong Kong. Still, the U.S. government remains at least a step behind. Since the war started, the Office of Foreign Asset Control, an agency in the Treasury Department that administers the U.S. sanctions program, has designated at least 4,234 russian individuals and companies for economic restrictions, according to OpenSanctions, a sanctions data provider. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/technology/russia-sanctions-chips.html
The russian invaders continue to advance in the east of Ukraine. The enemy has success in the immediate vicinity of six settlements. https://informator.ua/uk/rosiyani-prosunulis-bilya-shesti-naselenih-punktiv-na-shodi-ukrajini-karti-deepstate
Ukraine can’t use British missiles to strike targets inside russia. The UK says it would have to agree such a change of policy with some of its NATO allies because of fears of a serious escalation of tension with Moscow. https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/ukraine-russia-war-british-missiles-qnsfh9rhg
On July 27, drones of the Ukrainian General Directorate of Intelligence attacked an oil refinery and three military airfields on the territory of the aggressor russia. In particular, a Tu-22M3 bomber was damaged at the "Olenya" airfield. This airfield is located about 1,800 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/droni-atakuvali-npz-i-aerodromi-v-rosiyi-poshkodzheno-tu-22m3-zmi-2629236.html
On July 26, the EU makes available in support of Ukraine the first payment of €1.5 billion generated from immobilised russian assets. These extraordinary revenues generated by EU operators and held by central securities depositories (CSDs) from immobilised Russian sovereign assets were made available by Euroclear to the Commission as a first instalment on 23 July. The money will now be channelled through the European Peace Facility and to the Ukraine Facility to support Ukraine's military capabilities as well as to support the country's reconstruction. 90% of the financial contribution from the extraordinary revenues will go to the European Peace Facility (EPF) and 10% will go to the Ukraine Facility to support respectively Ukraine's military and reconstruction needs. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_4029
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That is a lot of good news Wlad! I hope the job will be good for you!
I guess there has to be degrees of English. I wonder where I would test at? :)
My fingers are crossed for me good news for you!
73
Jaye
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Excellent news about the interview! I hope you get the job.
I looked up the C1 English level and it’s next to the top level of C2. You are doing very well indeed! (And it shows on your videos).
I’m glad you’re able to watch the Twilight Zone there! To me that particular episode resonates with current events in several ways. Not least of which are the Russians and their propaganda aimed at western societies, like the aliens tormenting Maple Street.
Sanctions have always been like a leaking boat. It’s probably even worse today with chips being so small and having ubiquitous legitimate uses, plus the Chinese, and the ever present criminal underground ready to make a quick buck for either side. If they are employed for too long, the targets find ways to create a parallel economy which we are seeing, and they provide a false sense of security to those applying the sanctions.
Good news on the proceeds from frozen Russian assets going to Ukraine. Let’s see more of that. Also, it’s past time to start giving the principal to Ukraine as well. Yes that would encourage more of a parallel economy among the Axis Of Evil but that appears to be happening anyway, protected by China. I don’t think it can be stopped if they really want to do it.
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Thanks guys!
As for the work, it's not that simple and I still have to pass the security check and the probationary period. The main thing is that I can handle it physically.
I am greatly grateful to all of you and your support for the opportunity to learn English. I didn't learn the rules, I just communicated with you, using the translator more at first, then less. I hope the day will come when I won't have to look up the translation of the word I need, and I'll start using the tenses and putting words in sentences correctly.
English levels are formal and are mainly used to evaluate students' ability to understand lectures and participate in discussions. I used one free try on this site https://www.efset.org/
I understand that 90% of the money received from interest on frozen assets will remain in Europe, but I hope this is just the beginning.
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Lots of good things on the horizon for you, Wlad! Nice to read this! Prayers are being answered.
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Lots of good things on the horizon for you, Wlad! Nice to read this! Prayers are being answered.
Tonight was noisy and, as they say, the biggest drone attack on Kyiv since the beginning of the war https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c51yn962650o I closed the windows so that they wouldn't disturb my sleep too much, but I still woke up a couple of times and didn't get enough sleep.
The rains have made the air fresh and it already feels like summer is coming to an end. The temperature dropped and eggs and meat were once again allowed to be sold in the market. Seasonal vegetables and fruits are not cheap, but soon they will be gone. I'm waiting for my favorite apples.
While poor Ukrainians have been living from confiscation to mobilization for many decades, and the government's development of various national strategies, declarations and memoranda has a formal and non-transparent nature, is carried out without the involvement of business associations and expert circles independent of the government's influence, does not have a systematic approach and is aimed at external circles, and not at internal real needs and interested domestic subjects economic entities. Their only goal is not strategic goals, but a short-term goal - to ensure further financial support of Ukraine's international partners in wartime conditions. https://pravo.ua/biudzhetna-deklaratsiia-na-2025-2027-roky-ta-mizhnarodne-opodatkuvannia/
At the same time I remember the four factors which drive relative economic growth – competitiveness, indebtedness, culture and luck. They are what investors take into account, according to Ray Dalio's Daily Observations.
But perhaps the best thing about the state of the economy is the permission of the government of Ukraine for residents of front-line communities to gather firewood for home use for free, but cutting down trees or using chainsaws is prohibited. https://ua.korrespondent.net/ukraine/4705177-uriad-dozvolyv-bezkoshtovno-zbyraty-drova-u-lisi-na-pryfrontovykh-terytoriiakh#:~:text=%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%B1%D1%96%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%82%20%D0%9C%D1%96%D0%BD%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D1%96%D0%B2%20%D0%B2%20%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B6%D0%B0%D1%85%20%D0%BF%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BA%D0%B8,'%D1%94%D1%80%2D%D0%BC%D1%96%D0%BD%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%20%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%81%20%D0%A8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C.
I guess now I know what "humanitarian demining" is. And a few years ago, they laughed at a similar permit in russia https://ru.wikinews.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD_%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B7%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%B8%D0%BB_%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8F%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BC_%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8C_%D1%81_%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE_%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0_%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B6%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA_%D0%B2_%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%83
From August 1, 2024, the National Bank will begin withdrawing from circulation 500 hryvna old banknotes of the 2003-2007 with the aim of gradually replacing them with banknotes of the modern generation. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/banknoti-500-griven-starogo-zrazka-postupovo-zaminyuvatimutsya-v-obigu-na-bilsh-suchasni-ta-zahischeni
My wife believes that this will explain the appearance of a large number of new banknotes due to hidden emission.
But lawyers in Ukraine continue to fantasize about how private investment will take place after the end of the war and what tools will be available to potential investors. https://golaw.ua/insights/publication/mehanizm-derzhavno-privatnogo-partnerstva-maye-buti-zadiyanij-dlya-vidbudovi-ukrayini/
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“Humanitarian demining” … I know you were being sarcastic, but it is a horrible prospect. You’re right, it will happen.
I hope that the actual humanitarian demining efforts will someday produce a practical solution to locating and removing mines.
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Ukrainian cyber attack on Russia
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/36665
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“Humanitarian demining” … I know you were being sarcastic, but it is a horrible prospect. You’re right, it will happen.
I hope that the actual humanitarian demining efforts will someday produce a practical solution to locating and removing mines.
Since one of my hobbies was metal detecting, I have come across mines and cartridges even from the First World War in excellent condition. This is the biggest problem here. For one coin there are two dozen cartridges and a bucket of garbage. By the way, the quality of the cartridges of the First World War and the German ones of both wars is better than the Soviet ones of the Second World War. My grandfathers told me that all sorts of injuries and deaths were common after the war when mines exploded in the fields or children played with cartridges and shells. Even a couple of years ago there were cases when tourists made a fire on the ground and a mine exploded under it. We have a belief that the earth pushes out metal and sooner or later everything ends up on the surface.
I am not only sarcastic, but also very cynical. Unfortunately, people usually pay very little attention to understanding what is happening and it is not surprising that they get what they get. However, I was one of them. But understanding only makes things worse. Perhaps it was the unwillingness to notice the bad that mattered.
Ecclesiastes 1:18
For in much wisdom is much grief, and he that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow.
I am not at all surprised by the scandal associated with the restoration of the recently destroyed children's hospital in Kyiv, where a journalistic investigation revealed fraud https://nashigroshi.org/2024/08/01/skandal-na-vidbudovi-okhmatdytu-pidriadnykom-bez-poiasnen-obraly-firmu-z-otochennia-sluhy-narodu-za-307-mln-z-tsinamy-kh2/
For this reason, I did not engage in abstract collections of money that will be received and spent by no one knows who and how. However, there are no frauds in other destroyed hospitals, which are simply not being restored at all or the local authorities trying to find money in their budgets without any sponsors. The same thing happened with the cities. A lot of noise around Bucha, crowds of politicians wanting to take pictures in it and huge amounts of money for its restoration and silence in relation to other cities, from which only ruins remain. As time has shown, the scale of Bucha cannot be compared with Mariupol or Bakhmut, but from the railway station in Kyiv to the place for taking photos in Bucha - an hour's ride in a comfortable minibus without the risk of a shell or FPV drone hit it. Therefore, only real volunteers who help those who really need it get closer to the front line. Although their number has also greatly decreased due to the high risk of ending up in the army instead of their destination.
At the beginning of the full-scale war, the Ukrainian government introduced simplified requirements for importing humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Such rules strengthened Ukraine’s capacity to provide defence and humanitarian support to the population, engaging thousands of people and organizations worldwide in volunteering. Humanitarian aid from donors passed through Ukraine’s customs border based on a declaration filled out by the person transporting the relevant goods without applying any customs formalities.
A new, innovative mechanism now governs the import of humanitarian aid into Ukraine, exclusively allowing registered non-profit organizations to participate. This transformation mitigates corruption risks and significantly boosts Ukraine’s capacity to manage and distribute humanitarian aid efficiently. https://golaw.ua/insights/publication/novij-mehanizm-vvezennya-gumanitarnoyi-dopomogi-v-ukrayinu-yuridichnij-oglyad/
There was another drone attack tonight, which was successfully repelled. It's also unusual that electricity is on all day again. The main news is the official confirmation of the arrival of six F-16s to Ukraine https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-31/ukraine-gets-first-delivery-of-f-16-fighter-jets-after-long-wait?srnd=homepage-europe One of them has already been seen in the sky over Lviv. A lot of memes immediately appeared on the Internet. https://24tv.ua/ru/samolet-f-16-seti-burno-reagirujut-vozmozhnuju-peredachu-istrebitelej_n2609409 I liked the one where the sky is full of planes like birds https://x.com/serhii_rieznik/status/1818925523038310768
Attempts to contact Colin G3ZAF on the radio were again unsuccessful, but I was able to contact Australia VK2OT on 28 and Indonesia YB1CDA on 21. But the most interesting QSO in July is certainly the Norfolk Islands - VK9DX.
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Ukrainian cyber attack on Russia
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/36665
I will try to find out about it. But judging by all previous similar reports, the russians knew nothing about how mercilessly they were attacked.
Large numbers of recruits will arrive at the front in the coming weeks, soldiers and military analysts said, but some are poorly trained or out of shape.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/30/world/europe/ukraine-war-troops-russia-mobilization.html
Well, now every russian air bomb will kill several times more Ukrainian soldiers.
Reading the news about the murder of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was the main negotiator for a peace settlement in Gaza, I remember how the Madrid Conference ended and I fear for those who will negotiate with russia. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/31/middleeast/analysis-iran-options-ismail-haniyeh-killing-intl/index.html
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Maryna and Kate arrived safely in Kyiv, but I have to go to work on Monday and we won't be able to spend much time together.
The main news of the last few days is the arrival of F-16s in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1p72wlwo It's unlikely that a few of them will change anything, but for the authorities this is a deafening news item to distract the population from the loss of territories. To find out about price increases you don’t need to read the newspapers, just go to the store.
However, the electricity has not been turned off for several days now and drone attacks have been mostly successfully repelled. Ukrainian drone attacks also occasionally hit airports and warehouses in Crimea and russia.
Although the authorities call it russian propaganda, it is practically impossible to hide people's protests against mobilization centers that arise in one place or another. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cw4yyv2g1wpo
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/08/3/7468834/
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I hope that work went well.
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I hope that work went well.
This is a topic for another conversation, for now I can say that I am more tired from the road to work than from the work itself, but soon everything will change.
There are also many events happening in the country that I do not even have time to read about.
The media reports an attack by Ukrainian troops on russian territory in the Kursk region, which borders the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2n9y4nm3lo
People joke that the goal is to seize a Kursk nuclear power plant to get electricity. By the way, it has not been turned off for several days. Air attacks in Kyiv are now only once or twice a day and without destruction.
Also, the russians continue their slow advance in the east, capturing new territories.
For months, Ukrainian officials have been begging their foreign allies for permission to use the best donated weaponry—in particular, powerful ballistic missiles—to hit russian warplanes that have been parking out in the open at airfields inside russia within quick flying time of Ukrainian cities. Ukraine had a chance to blow up russia’s best warplanes on the tarmac. The white house said no—and now it’s too late. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/05/ukraine-had-a-chance-to-blow-up-russias-best-warplanes-on-the-tarmac-the-white-house-said-no-and-now-its-too-late/
The main purpose of the law on mobilization has been fulfilled. The purpose of the law was to record all conscripts who are in the country and can potentially join the army to protect state sovereignty, People's Deputy, member of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Fedir Venislavskyi said at the briefing. https://gazeta.ua/articles/politics/_zakon-pro-mobilizaciyu-duzhe-dobre-vikonuye-svoyu-metu-deputat/1189705
From September 2024, instead of Penny Pritzker, Richard Verma will become the US special representative for the economic recovery of Ukraine. He currently works as the Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources. https://news.obozrevatel.com/ukr/abroad/u-ssha-nazvali-nastupnika-pritsker-na-posadi-spetspredstavnika-z-vidnovlennya-ukraini-scho-pro-nogo-vidomo-foto.htm
Ukraine has received €108 billion in aid from the European Union since the start of the full-scale russian invasion. This was announced by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in Kh.
https://x.com/vonderleyen/status/1821090629373309313
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That missed opportunity to destroy Russian jets is infuriating. I wish the White House would stop their dithering.
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That missed opportunity to destroy Russian jets is infuriating. I wish the White House would stop their dithering.
In this regard, I think that the operation in the Kursk region pursues to capture some territories, which can then be exchanged then. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7rn98l8kjo
But personally, I don't have a confident explanation for what's happening amid the uncertainty of the US elections. But what I am sure of is that strategically, it is more important for the US that China not take over a weak russia than to protect Ukraine's interests.
The first week of work has left me very tired, but I'm holding on. At least I have absolutely no time to read the news or worry about what's happening. All I want to do when I get home is eat and sleep. I hope I can spend time with my wife and daughter on the weekend.
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I went to bed at 9 PM on Friday and woke up at 9 AM on Saturday. The whole country is discussing the events in Kursk Oblast, but I am only interested in communicating with my wife and daughter. The only exception is the traditional zoom meeting with Colin G3ZAF, on which my daughter and my friend, who is also studying English, were present today. He said that yesterday, during the shelling, his former colleague, who recently transferred to the police where they paid more, was killed. He was sent to serve in Kostyantinivka and his two children were left orphans. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cp35nlel29yo
How many Ukrainian soldiers die every day remains a mystery.
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I hope you were able to have time with Maryna and Kate and that your second week of work is going well!
The Kursk area invasion into Russia has been stunningly successful so far. The dramatic exposure of Russian weakness and Putin’s lies is brilliant, besides of course forcing the reallocation of Orc troops away from Ukraine. I hope that the Ukrainians will not overextend themselves and will be able to safely retreat when the counterattacks eventually come in earnest.
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I hope you were able to have time with Maryna and Kate and that your second week of work is going well!
Hello everyone! It's only Tuesday, but it already feels like Friday. At the morning meeting, my colleagues were discussing the air raid siren that lasted almost all night, while I didn't hear anything except the alarm clock in the morning. They envied my strong nerves. Maybe I'm just more tired. This company is going through a crisis and the bosses have to make incredible efforts to maintain it and even develop it. For me, this is a challenge that I intend to successfully overcome. There is nothing better than starting in difficult times and achieving success where everyone else could not.
Kate is beaming with happiness because she got into the second in level lyceum in Krakow and is a little upset that she did not try to apply to the first one. She scored enough points on the exam for this. However, she likes that the lyceum she got into looks like the school from Harry Potter. The old building and special ties and scarves with symbols.
Kate has already studied the charter and other documents of the lyceum and found many loopholes and shortcomings in them, but is against the indication of them and correcting them so as not to complicate her life. I love this girl!
Dave KB9YYM and his wife Guna decided to support her and Seva and gave them money for books. Before that, they helped Kate buy a laptop. Although Kate's English lessons with Guna cost much more. This motivates Kate to study well. She learns in practice that if you are a worthy person, you will meet other good people in life and this is God's will and His support for us. Perhaps she will keep this feeling and one day also help some girl from a distant, unhappy country. She already knows that everything comes back.
Matthew 7
11 If you, then, though you are evil, know how to give good gifts to your children, how much more will your Father in heaven give good gifts to those who ask him!
12 So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets.
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The Kursk area invasion into Russia has been stunningly successful so far. The dramatic exposure of Russian weakness and Putin’s lies is brilliant, besides of course forcing the reallocation of Orc troops away from Ukraine. I hope that the Ukrainians will not overextend themselves and will be able to safely retreat when the counterattacks eventually come in earnest.
Since I don't know what the goals of this operation were and how it will end, I can't judge its success or failure. What's important now is not what's actually happening, but how this or that propaganda will show it. I can only guess who might benefit from this situation. Obviously, Ukraine and its allies.
pootin can also use it as confirmation of the fact that he has long been accusing the West in general and Ukraine in particular of wanting to attack russia. Now evidence of this can be shown to the russians on TV. He can also introduce martial law, close borders, further restrict people's rights and do the same thing that is happening in Ukraine.
It also makes peace talks impossible. It's quite ambiguous in terms of who benefits most. Israel comes to mind. As soon as there's a prospect of a peace agreement, rockets fly or another leader is killed.
It can also be a joint operation with those russians who are high enough to seize power, but are unable to overthrow pootin on their own. They can use this situation to show the russians that pootin was wrong and weak.
The West will get a second Yeltsin and will continue to make money with the russians, keeping its distance from China.
Meanwhile, Ukraine claims to control 1,000 sq km of russian territory https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo
Here, too, I don’t really understand, given the daily advance of the russians in the east and the fact that they are not moving their troops to the north. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4821208-ukraines-surprise-attack-into-russia-ups-ante-for-putin/
Also, russian missiles, even when shot down, continue to kill people, as happened the day before yesterday near Kyiv. I heard these explosions and Maryna, Kate and I even spent some time in the corridor. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1006244.html
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Wlad,
The good news is most welcome to hear from you! On all fronts too.
So glad you have productive work and income finally. I think both are necessary to keep your mind from going crazy thinking and over-thinking aimlessly. To have some money coming in also takes great strain off your worry list!
It must feel extraordinary to know your children are both in good schools and putting all their efforts into that work. So much good news, so long over-due.
The ham club picnic is only days away. Today I will get the Briquette for the BBQ and a new wire brush so I can clean the grates on the large BBQ pit. https://www.w6ccn.us/
One of the hams will drive 900 miles (1500km) for this picnic! Several will drive their motorcycles. Since our radio net covers such vast distances, from Washington state to Arizona state and all states in between. I only know their voices, so it will be very enjoyable to finally see them in person. I'll bring my camera as I plan to take many pictures.
I'm concerned about enduring the pain from my body, but I will have plenty of help.
I'm wishing you and your family a wonderful, blessed week!
73
Jaye
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Thank you Jaye for kind words!
When you work unofficially for a company that is going through a crisis in a country where you don't know if you'll survive until tomorrow, it's not enough to earn money, you also have to take them. However, I hope that I will be useful enough for this company so that they will pay for what I do. I must say that my tasks are truly non-trivial and require an unconventional approach. Also, I learn something new every day and am constantly learning.
Your club meeting looks wonderful and it would be great to join it.
My online meeting with members of the Swedish club SK1BL will take place on September 8. https://www.ssa.se/sk1bl-meeting-med-foredrag-av-us7ign/
Today Maryna and Kate went back to Poland and I am very sad. I almost forgot how good it is to be together.
Ukraine received 4.2 billion euros from the European Union as part of the Ukraine Facility program, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said. The tranche consists of preferential financing - 2.7 billion euros, a grant - 1.5 billion euros (non-refundable financing). "The government will direct these funds to social programs, the humanitarian sphere and other important budget programs. We continue to finance military expenditures only at the expense of our own resources," he wrote in a telegram. He reminded that since the beginning of the year, the EU has already provided over 12 billion euros in budget support to Ukraine. According to him, Ukraine expects another tranche of aid from the EU by the end of the year. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-ukrayina-yes-transh-dopomoha/33077034.html
In order to improve the country's financial situation, the Ukrainian authorities are trying to implement several scenarios at once, which can be called a mixture of debt restructuring, privatization and tax rate increases. In this way, the government is trying to overcome the budget deficit. However, investors say that Kyiv must do more to tackle the country's shadow economy. The Financial Times writes about it. https://www.ft.com/content/5a1a4a1e-9e1b-4ea6-b2f0-257651bac62f
“America started [the war], they attacked us. I don't know why. We're so hashtag#kind and compassionate russians”, - russians from one of the country's poorest regions share their thoughts on the war.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nataliia-i-50624071_kind-supportukraine-ugcPost-7227442774726332416-ZkoJ?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
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That Russian quote is delicious.
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“Kind and compassionate Russians” is the definition of oxymoron.
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Maryna and Kate have already returned to Poland, saying "we have returned home". However, each member of our family is sure that he has no home. I, while cleaning up women's things scattered here and there, still feel their presence.
Kate decided to start learning Morse Code. My printer beeped about the lack of paper when I was making copies of her documents and she asked why the printer uses Morse Code. I asked what letter it was beeping and Kate answered correctly - "U"! I was pleasantly surprised.
Two weeks of hard work flew by like one day. However, I am already starting to see the first results for myself. I am returning to the idea that for me work has always been an escape from a meaningless existence. Work filled my life, leaving no time for thinking. When you are tired and only want to eat and sleep, it becomes easier. I also discovered that I have not lost my qualifications at all and have maintained my level. This means that I should continue to develop. This position allows me to develop and this was the main reason why I agreed. Yesterday and tonight there were air raid sirens and the air defense was loudly shooting down something. Or something was exploding. I slept poorly and didn't have time to rest, so at the first sign of fatigue, I immediately slow down. So today I decided to work from home. In recent days, air raid sirens have been sounding several times a day and buses stop running during this time. This is very stupid because people continue to sit in them and wait for them to start running again. A couple of days ago, this increased my time to get home by half an hour.
The EU pays pootin more than €1 bn monthly for natural gas imports, as reported by Robin Brooks. But Ukraine continues to let russian gas pass through its territory and receive money for it. For some, there is a war, and for others, their business continues.
The biggest prisoner exchange between russia and the West since the Cold War era took place earlier, with 24 people released in total. The White House said 16 prisoners had been freed and were on their way back to Europe and the US. In return, eight russian prisoners have been released from prisons in the US, Norway, Germany, Poland and Slovenia, including individuals accused of intelligence activities. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c29d6k382k5o
But “good russians” are helping pootin immediately after they were exchanged for russian spies and assassins. It looks like the rotation of agents. They are singing the same old song “Put sanctions on elite not on ordinary people”. Who then kills Ukrainians every day if not ordinary people?
President Zelensky finally submitted a bill on the ratification of the Rome Statute, including Kampala amendments with respect to the crime of aggression, to the Ukrainian parliament. However, Ukraine wishes to take advantage of Art 124 (transitional provision) of the Rome Statute, which would preclude the ICC from its exercise of jurisdiction over war crimes in relation to Ukrainian nationals for a period of 7 years following the ratification.
All this is very good but it confuses me that the USA and Israel have not ratified it yet...
The advance of the Ukrainian army deep into russian territory in Kursk region is gradually continuing, as is the advance of russian troops in the east into Ukraine https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/rosiyani-nablizilisya-vpritul-do-pokrovska-stoyat-lishe-za-10-km-vid-mista-detali-2641239.html
There is an opinion that the goal of the Ukrainian attack was to distract attention, and the real blow will be in the south on Crimea.
Some believe that this offensive is a personal initiative of Ukraine https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cql365ld002o , but I do not believe it. This is very similar to a well-planned operation where officials in Washington pretend that it is not their hand in order not to provoke an escalation. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/15/politics/russia-has-diverted-several-thousand-troops-from-occupied-ukraine-to-counter-kursk-offensive-us-officials-say/index.html
Another russian strategic bomber Tu-22M3 crashed in the Irkutsk region. This slightly reduces their ability to launch cruise missiles. https://aviaforum.ru/threads/tu-22m3-poterpel-krushenie-v-irkutskoj-oblasti.50749/
The Cabinet of Ministers approved "experimental" changes in military accounting. Now Ukrainians will be entered in the register of conscripts from the age of 16 and older. https://thepage.ua/ua/news/ukrayinciv-vnositimut-v-reyestr-vijskovozobovyazanih-z-16-rokiv Ukraine is becoming like Sparta. Should the elderly and the sick be worried that they will be thrown off a cliff?
The heads of the mobilization centers of Bucha and Boryspil districts were detained for bribery. 300,000 dollars were found in their offices. We understand that this is only the tip of the iceberg. https://kyivschina24.com/news/nachalnykiv-tczk-buchanskogo-ta-boryspilskogo-rajoniv-zatrymaly-na-habari/
Next week, Ukraine may return to the use of electricity blackout schedules due to hot weather and, as a result, an increase in its consumption, Deputy Minister of Energy of Ukraine Svitlana Grynchuk said. https://flot2017.com/v-ukraini-planuiutsia-novi-vidkliuchennia-svitla-koly-vony-rozpochnutsia/
The state-owned "Ukrhydroenergo" announced a tender for the purchase of legal services for representation in the international arbitration on compensation for losses caused by the destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP, which was blown up by the russian occupiers in June of last year. The expected purchase price is almost 10 million dollars. Unfortunately, this is not my level. But it seems I know who will win the tender)
https://biz.censor.net/n3504941
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Today I rested all day. I forgot when was the last time I picked up a soldering iron, so today I repaired my friend's SW receiver. UT3UFD broke fine tune in his xhdata d-808 and I replaced old encoder with another one. It looks not good, but works well.
Then I installed a voltmeter in the box with filters to control battery. If the voltage drops too much, it can kill the battery. After a period when the power was not turned off at all, we are warned that the power outages will resume. My friend from Kharkiv called me. His daughter entered the university, and although they live in a house in which they remade a decorative fireplace and made a supply of firewood for heating, she needs to ensure the availability of electricity for the Internet and the ability to work with a computer. In Kharkiv, the electricity was turned off more often than in Kyiv and sometimes for as long as three days. But I do not know what to advise him. The market is full of cheap China of unknown quality and homemade products, which use elements from broken Teslas, which are massively transported to Ukraine.
Also I had two hours conversation with Colin G3ZAF on zoom because propagation was absent today for us.
Ukraine and russia were set to send delegations to Doha this month to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides, diplomats and officials familiar with the discussions said, in what would have amounted to a partial cease-fire and offered a reprieve for both countries.
But the indirect talks, with the Qataris serving as mediators and meeting separately with the Ukrainian and russian delegations, were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into russia’s western Kursk region last week, according to the officials. The possible agreement and planned summit have not been previously reported, The Washington Post writes. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/17/kursk-ukraine-russia-energy-ceasefire/
US blocks Ukraine from firing British missiles into russia. UK government source says request sent to Washington more than a month ago to allow the Storm Shadow missile to be fired into russia still awaits a reply. https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/us-blocks-ukraine-from-firing-british-missiles-into-russia-9wq6td2pw
I heard a joke in which pootin summoned stalin's spirit at a seance to ask for advice on what to do because the "Nazis" had defeated his army at Kursk. stalin replied that he could do what stalin did in 1943 - send the Ukrainians to fight and ask the US for weapons.
Mobilization centers say that lawyers should not interfere in the processes of mobilization and passing of medical commissions.
The Verkhovna Rada returns to consideration of the draft law on the classification of court cases on mobilization in the Register of Court Decisions.
The National Bar Association of Ukraine passed a decision regarding violations of the professional rights of lawyers and guarantees of lawyer activity during mobilization activities. In it, the NBA directly indicated that the practice of removing lawyers from participation in the provision of legal aid to mobilized citizens by mobilization centers officials leads to a violation of the human right to protection and legal aid.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/308332-advokaty-ne-dolzhny-vmeshivatsya-v-protsessy-mobilizatsii-volynskiy-ttsk
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I also passed the English test yesterday and found out that I have level C1. https://www.efset.org/
OMG Wlad, that's so great! I can't believe I would ever pass A1, the entry one.
Kate decided to start learning Morse Code.
This is even greater! No really, I'm amazed with you and your family's achievements. Keep going!
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What's up everyone?
Once I heard a 'net' somewhere on DMR i.e. rather on the internet than on the air. People mostly responded with their callsign and, can't recall exactly, with some short word or abbreviation of 'well, I'm really glad to participate but I really have nothing new since last net, so I'm standing by and listening to other stations'. Not exactly still good approach to what I'd wish to say. :) To be honest, I'd like to make bigger accent on 'thank y'all' part of the message however it's already pretty much OK as is.
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The daytime temperature is +35C again and air raid sirens every night make me very tired already on Tuesday. And I don't hear every second attack! Lots of work and I'm counting the days until the weekend. Although I have to think about some things on the weekends too. However, I was given another case and it doesn't look like they are going to fire me. I feel pretty good and work from home when I need to rest, apparently the emotional boost helps.
Unfortunately, the shelling causes damage here and there every time. In the Kyiv region, houses were destroyed https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/poshkodzheno-budinki-ta-elektromerezhu-shcho-1723965094.html , and in Ternopil, a fire at an industrial enterprise took a whole day to extinguish https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/misto-ogornuv-chorniy-gustiy-dim-shcho-vidomo-1724147414.html
The next winter will be much more difficult for Ukrainians than the previous one, as Ukraine has lost half of its energy capacity due to shelling and fighting, European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said in an article for the British newspaper Financial Times. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ceq57lpjw74o
Ukraine’s cross-border attack into Kursk region marks the first time since World War Two that a foreign army has been fighting inside russia. It is a dramatic and unexpected development in this war, nearly two-and-a-half years after pootin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. russians tell BBC they are worried and angry at Ukraine incursion https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cgedgzx7xqno. But they see no problems with pootin. They see only the confirmation of his words that they were "attacked by the West and its puppet Ukraine". This also answers the question of why there are no protests in russia. russians can only protest against the West, from which pootin protects them.
A deepening shortage of soldiers for its war in Ukraine is prompting russia to hike recruitment bonuses to avoid a repeat of an unpopular mobilization. So far, there’s little sign it’s working. The military isn’t getting enough new soldiers to keep pace with frontline losses that are at their highest since the February 2022 invasion began, according to three people close to the Kremlin and the russian Defense Ministry, asking not to be identified because the issue is sensitive. Regional officials are leaving more than a third of their recruitment quotas unfilled on average, a person familiar with the situation said. The situation may force russia to consider a new mobilization, according to two of the people. Officials may present it as a rotation measure to rest frontline troops, one of the people said, while another said a draft may be ordered as soon as the end of this year. Ukraine’s stunning military incursion into russia’s western Kursk region, meeting little resistance, underscored challenges facing the Kremlin with the war deep in its third year. Ukrainian forces now control 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of russian territory and offensive operations are continuing, Bloomberg writes https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-15/ukraine-reports-largest-surrender-by-russian-troops-of-the-war?srnd=homepage-europe
All this sounds good when you do not know what losses the Ukrainian army suffered during this breakthrough and that the russian army almost reached the borders of the Donetsk region, which was one of the goals announced by pootin when he started the war. The only purpose of this operation could be to distract russian attention and divert forces from other directions, where the main offensive of the Ukrainian army should take place. I think we will see it soon. It is premature to say that the russians are weak in general only on the basis that they did not withstand the Ukrainian offensive solely because they did not wait for it. It seems that the West was also nervous about this, since no one knew how the russians would react to it. So far it seems that they do not consider it a big problem for themselves.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans to visit the capital of Ukraine on August 23. This visit is important for both India and Ukraine. Modi's visit to Kyiv is a bid for India's stronger position. New Delhi can involve the countries of the Global South in the Ukrainian formula of peace, and therefore actually contribute to the peace process. When the track of peace talks or at least some kind of ceasefire begins, India can claim to be one of the leaders of the countries of the Global South, which is able to compete in offers with China. https://uatv.ua/uk/vizyt-prem-yer-ministra-indiyi-do-ukrayiny-stane-istorychnym-pro-tsili-rozpoviv-politolog/
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a law banning the russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine. https://www.liga.net/ua/politics/articles/v-upts-ie-deviat-misiatsiv-shcho-oznachaie-zaborona-moskovskoi-tserkvy-v-ukraini-iak-i-koly-zapratsiuie
It is no secret that the russian secret services made the church their instrument back in the days of the USSR and it is suspicious that it was not banned along with the Communist Party back in 1991 when the USSR collapsed and Ukraine gained independence. Apparently Ukraine has never been truly independent.
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I also passed the English test yesterday and found out that I have level C1. https://www.efset.org/
OMG Wlad, that's so great! I can't believe I would ever pass A1, the entry one.
Kate decided to start learning Morse Code.
This is even greater! No really, I'm amazed with you and your family's achievements. Keep going!
Hi Gene!
I agree, very impressive!
Good to see you here.
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Regarding the BBC interviews:
“But they see no problems with pootin. They see only the confirmation of his words that they were "attacked by the West and its puppet Ukraine". This also answers the question of why there are no protests in russia. russians can only protest against the West, from which pootin protects them.”
I only can read the captions in English so I may have missed some subtleties of meaning, but I found the people’s comments to be guarded. When asked directly, what could they possibly say about Putin or the war, other than compliments, to a foreign news film crew given that the penalties for criticism and dissent are so drastic?
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How often have you seen russians condemn their regime and express their protest, for example, by posting on foreign forums where nothing threatens their safety? Have you forgotten how russians attacked me on QRZ.COM and what they wrote? On their forums, they are the first to attack those who criticize the actions of the authorities. The system is designed so that the special services do not need to strain themselves and look for dissatisfied people. A neighbor will immediately report them. Society is structured as Orwell described. Most people sincerely believe what propaganda says. I was shocked when I first heard this from russian ex-friends back in 2014. I am not talking about those who publicly call themselves oppositionists abroad, but in fact are FSB agents.
Moreover, ordinary russians are truly afraid that a weaker leader will sell them out to the West, as Yeltsin did. They are horrified by the alien way of life and thinking in the West. And I understand them perfectly well in this. Try to find a couple of drug addicts under a bridge, wash them, make them give up drugs, start dressing clean, go to work, and on Sundays to church.
Those women in interviews are afraid, but they tell the truth because it is the only one they have and they believe in it.
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How often have you seen russians condemn their regime and express their protest, for example, by posting on foreign forums where nothing threatens their safety? Have you forgotten how russians attacked me on QRZ.COM and what they wrote? On their forums, they are the first to attack those who criticize the actions of the authorities. The system is designed so that the special services do not need to strain themselves and look for dissatisfied people. A neighbor will immediately report them. Society is structured as Orwell described. Most people sincerely believe what propaganda says. I was shocked when I first heard this from russian ex-friends back in 2014. I am not talking about those who publicly call themselves oppositionists abroad, but in fact are FSB agents.
Moreover, ordinary russians are truly afraid that a weaker leader will sell them out to the West, as Yeltsin did. They are horrified by the alien way of life and thinking in the West. And I understand them perfectly well in this. Try to find a couple of drug addicts under a bridge, wash them, make them give up drugs, start dressing clean, go to work, and on Sundays to church.
Those women in interviews are afraid, but they tell the truth because it is the only one they have and they believe in it.
I was not disagreeing with you and your experience, my friend. My thought was only that IF they had doubts, they certainly wouldn’t say anything of consequence in that circumstance.
The two interviewees who mentioned internet news and wished for more information were radicals in comparison to the others!
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Hey Gene,
Great to see you again OM. Hope your family and cats are all well!
Wlad,
I know the job keeps you busy. That is a good feeling for sure.
I certainly haven't forgotten the russian robots that kept creeping into the qrz forum.
I can't say the army breaking into russian territory is good. I see it as very confusing and with that, so will the russians. I am sure there is a well formulated plan in place now. So now all I can do is hope that Ukraine forces prevail on all fronts. I can't even imagine how difficult it all must be.
Glad you can work from comfort of your home. That gives you time to rest during the day and keep your mind sharp.
Be well all, 73
Jaye
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Today I had one meeting in the morning, but I had to spend almost an hour and a half on the road one way. It is not very comfortable when it is hot outside, there is no air conditioning and people stink like you are in a garbage dump. Public transport is something terrible, and I have not earned enough for a new car yet. It is also a mystery to me why people do not wash and wear dirty clothes despite the fact that even in wartime every apartment in Kyiv has water.
Since the office is on the other side of the city, I decided not to go there. I returned home and continued working from home. I was tired again, although I did everything I was going to do. The new laptop that I was given at work holds a battery charge for about 7 hours and now I am not afraid of power outages. Tomorrow I will go to the office because a colleague even asked if everything was okay with me and regretted that I did not try some dish that she cooked today and brought to the office. But you need to be careful with these wily women.
I watched the vivid videos of the latest attacks on russian military airfields, as well as on the only ferry that was capable of transporting rail tankers with fuel, and this inspires optimism. If China does not help the russians with equipment, then sooner or later it will run out. I associate the decrease in missile attacks recently with the loss of aircraft by the russians that launched the missiles.
https://flot2017.com/udar-po-aerodromu-marynivka-sbu-ta-sso-znyshchyly-sklady-z-boiekomplektom-i-palyvom/
https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/uploads/monthly_2024_08/684480480_2024-08-2217_58_54.mp4.7173152309b34eae2cb2bba0691ed7d5.mp4
https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/uploads/monthly_2024_08/IMG_9492.MP4.0bc70accef6bb46ff17d86cfd3087821.MP4
https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/uploads/monthly_2024_08/video_2024-08-22_18-41-42.mp4.85ef9996672e74ffd03df728fbcb6698.mp4
But the day after tomorrow is Independence Day and even the US Embassy is warning of attacks. https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-message-for-u-s-citizens-ukraine/
Belarus has deployed aircraft and air defense troops to its border with Ukraine, a day after President Alexander Lukashenko announced he would station almost a third of the country’s military along the frontier. The Belarusian military also deployed anti-aircraft missiles and soldiers from the country’s radio-technical corps, Maj. Gen. Andrey Lukyanovich, commander of the Belarusian Air Defense Forces, said on national television, describing the move as a significant increase. Belarus’ authoritarian leader, Lukashenko, on Sunday announced that he’d ordered almost a third of the army to the border with Ukraine. Although he did not specify troop numbers, Belarus’ army numbers about 60,000. Lukashenko said the decision was in response to additional Ukrainian troops being deployed along the border, but that could not be independently verified. Ukraine has not confirmed the Belarusian deployment to the 1,084-kilometer common border.
https://apnews.com/article/belarus-border-ukraine-troop-movement-6d914756f4f873bb1d4462f63cccd5db?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=share
Ukraine and russia both lack the military assets to mount major offensives against each other, the Pentagon’s intelligence agency said in new assessments that suggests the two sides are headed toward stalemate. The Defense Intelligence Agency assessments conclude that Ukraine still doesn’t have the munitions to match russia’s ability to fire some 10,000 artillery rounds a day, even after the US Congress unlocked fresh military aid in April. Ukrainian forces remain capable of defensive operations but won’t be able to launch large-scale counteroffensives for at least six months. russia, on the other hand, has adopted a strategy of exhausting Ukraine and will be able to maintain a buffer zone its troops captured — but doesn’t have enough strength “to threaten a deeper advance into Ukrainian-held territory, such as Kharkiv city,” said DIA in one observation.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-20/ukraine-not-capable-of-major-offensive-for-at-least-six-months
Some new Ukrainian soldiers refuse to fire at the enemy. Others, according to commanders and fellow fighters, struggle to assemble weapons or to coordinate basic combat movements. A few have even walked away from their posts, abandoning the battlefield altogether. While Ukraine presses on with its incursion into russia’s Kursk region, its troops are still losing precious ground along the country’s eastern front — a grim erosion that military commanders blame in part on poorly trained recruits drawn from a recent mobilization drive, as well as russia’s clear superiority in ammunition and air power. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-new-recruits-pokrovsk-ed2d06ad529e3b7e47ecd32f79911b83
Deputy Minister of Finance of Ukraine Olga Zykova said the need for external financing will increase by about $12-15 billion, based on updated forecasts for 2025
https://mof.gov.ua/en/news/olga_zykova_the_need_for_external_financing_will_increase_by_about_12-15_billion_based_on_updated_forecasts_for_2025-4753
I came across the message on the official website of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine about the propaganda operations that russia is preparing to carry out in European countries, including presentations of various “fiction and documentary” books. https://gur.gov.ua/en/content/derzh...ini-operatsii-u-ievropi-vadym-skibitskyi.html
In this I also see the risk that any criticism of the government can be regarded as russian propaganda. On the other hand, I really see books about Ukraine and the war from people who have never even been here. For me, the value of such books is quite low. In any case, any book either reflects the personal point of view of the author or the person who paid him to write it. You just have to always remember it.
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How often have you seen russians condemn their regime and express their protest, for example, by posting on foreign forums where nothing threatens their safety? Have you forgotten how russians attacked me on QRZ.COM and what they wrote? On their forums, they are the first to attack those who criticize the actions of the authorities. The system is designed so that the special services do not need to strain themselves and look for dissatisfied people. A neighbor will immediately report them. Society is structured as Orwell described. Most people sincerely believe what propaganda says. I was shocked when I first heard this from russian ex-friends back in 2014. I am not talking about those who publicly call themselves oppositionists abroad, but in fact are FSB agents.
Moreover, ordinary russians are truly afraid that a weaker leader will sell them out to the West, as Yeltsin did. They are horrified by the alien way of life and thinking in the West. And I understand them perfectly well in this. Try to find a couple of drug addicts under a bridge, wash them, make them give up drugs, start dressing clean, go to work, and on Sundays to church.
Those women in interviews are afraid, but they tell the truth because it is the only one they have and they believe in it.
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It's been a long time since a week has passed for me as fast as it is now. Work is very tiring, but I'm glad that I'm still effective and have recovered enough. In a week, I'll be refining the treatment plan with the doctor again and these loads will help me understand the objective situation. I like the team. Today, one colleague cooked chicken and fed me. I guess I'm a pity party)
When I come home I usually see that the electricity was turned off during the day because the electronic clock powered by the socket shows a strange time. So I was surprised to learn that Ukraine plans to resume electricity exports to neighboring countries from August 25. This was reported by the press service of the energy system operator of Ukraine NEC "Ukrenergo". Source: https://biz.censor.net/n3506272
The mass media write about multiple successful attacks by Ukrainian drones on military airports and oil depots in russia.
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It’s great to hear that the work is going well, Wlad!
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It’s great to hear that the work is going well, Wlad!
Agree! And that he's being paid for it!
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Work is important in many ways. I had to change my rhythm. Today I got up early. Many people prefer to sleep until lunch on weekends, but I prefer to stick to a routine. So I got up early again, had breakfast, rode my bicycle, checked what was sent to me late yesterday in my work email to understand what awaits me on Monday, had a zoom call with Colin G3ZAF and even made a few QSO. I got KH0W from the Mariana Islands on 28MH.
I also met with Sergiy UT3UFD. He is also very tired, but is happy with his results. Work has added the need to iron shirts and wear suits. Sergiy can wear T-shirts.
Yesterday I talked to a friend who complained about "burnout" and dissatisfaction with life. It is difficult for me to say anything to those who have been working all this time, live with their family and have no illnesses.
But in the evening I did everything I planned and felt sad that I was again spending my wedding anniversary without my wife and family. Independence Day does not evoke any emotions in me at all. Another friend of mine said that two more of his colleagues were killed in the frontline Pokrovsk and people are being evacuated from the remnants of Ukrainian territory in the Donetsk region in the east. Against this background, congratulations and loud statements about successes in the Kursk region by officials are disgusting. The exchange of 115 Ukrainian soldiers for russian soldiers captured in the Kursk region is good news https://suspilne.media/820511-ukraina-povernula-115-zahisnikiv-z-rosijskogo-polonu/ , but unfortunately, among those released there is not a single "Azovets", who were ordered to surrender back in 2022 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/24/world/europe/ukraine-war-mariupol-azovstal.html
Sometimes I hear questions about the price of this offensive, but no one knows the answers. The authorities come up with new reasons and goals for this offensive every time, but pootin remains in power, the russians do not rebel against him, the russian army continues to advance in the south and east, and Sumy is subjected to missile strikes every day https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/u-sumah-chuli-kilka-vibuhiv-povitryani-sili-zayavlyali-pro-shvidkisnu-cil-na-misto-novini-ukrajini-50445622.html. Today is the second air raid alarm and I think the night will be restless.
Meanwhile, Washington is not ready to jeopardize the national security of the United States for the sake of supporting Ukraine, given that in the future the United States may seek to restore relations with Moscow. This is reported by Politico https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/23/ukraine-biden-weapons-restrictions-00176210
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In the morning, a large-scale missile attack. All over Ukraine, power structures were hit and destroyed. In Kyiv, in part of the city, there is no electricity and water. I have everything for now, but I am sure there will be outages.
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Most of my colleagues have no power, but I'm lucky so far. The damage is much greater than what is officially reported.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cvg58p0d55dt
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Well, that was a big attack. Air defense forces shot down 102 missiles and 99 drones launched by the russian army. In total, there were 127 missiles and 109 UAVs. The missiles that hit their targets damaged many energy facilities, including two that hit the dam of the Kyiv reservoir. Many trains were delayed, there were long power outages across the country, and some cities have no water. I also had no electricity for 5 hours, but still have water.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cr7r92yy5nmo
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3d90ke0ello
However, I am so engrossed in my work that my mood has not even deteriorated. I have a laptop, a phone, the Internet and batteries. Everything a lawyer needs for full-fledged work!
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So happy that you are OK!
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There was another missile attack last night and I barely slept. I went to the office, found out there was no power and went home. At home I found power and charged everything. Today there was power for 2.5 hours, then no power for 5-6 hours and then power for 2.5 hours. Tomorrow the energy companies promise fewer outages. https://toneto.net/news/kultura/mi-budemo-pratsyuvati-z--ukrenergo---shchob-pereyti-na-prognozovan---graf--ki--kmda---pro-v--dklyuchennya-sv--tla-v-ki--v---v--dnovlennya-poshkodgeno---kritichno-----nfrastrukturi-triva---gittya-stolits--
"Ukrenergo" recognized the russian attack on energy facilities on August 26 as the largest since the beginning of the war https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1009915.html
Two nights like that in a row have had a bad effect on me and my heart has started to hurt again. Tomorrow I will stay home anyway and try to rest.
The President once again demonstrated his inadequacy at another press conference. In response to questions about the effectiveness of his team, in particular the controversial deputy head of the Office of the President Oleg Tatarov, Zelensky unexpectedly announced that Tatarov and head of the Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Malyuk "killed Chechens in Kyiv" at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the russian federation.
"The United States and everyone knows about it. Oleg Tatarov, together with Vasyl Malyuk, killed Chechens in Ukraine, in Kyiv. Is it not enough? To expel him? To be killed by the russians?"
Oleg Tatarov, the deputy head of the office of President Andriy Yermak, was at the epicenter of several scandals before the full-scale invasion began. In 2021, he became a participant in the case of the illegal seizure of National Guard property worth more than 81 million hryvnias by representatives of one of the capital's developers. Tatarov worked in the Ministry of Internal Affairs during the Revolution of Dignity, and activists accuse him of involvement in the persecution of protesters. Observers assume that Oleg Tatarov can now oversee the direction of the law enforcement system in the Office of the President. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/clygdk9xxp9o
At the beginning of the invasion, one of the fakes was the alleged appearance of Chechens (this is what all the inhabitants of the Caucasus who are loyal to pootin are usually called, after the name of one of the republics, although this is incorrect. It is more correct to speak of "Kadyrovtsi" by the last name of their leader https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov , but Zelensky said what he said.) in Kyiv, although it was later found out that all the cases of shooting in Kyiv were friendly fire and there was not a single sabotage and reconnaissance group in Kyiv. People laugh, suggesting that these hallucinations of the President were caused by his improper nutrition in the bunker. This is another reference to Shuster's book "Showman", where he described the time he spent with Zelensky at the beginning of the invasion:
"There was not much to eat. Sweets got passed around at meetings, and tinned meat with stale bread was in the communal kitchen. One minister told me he survived for days on chocolate. Zelensky and his team kept a supply of alcohol even after the government banned its sale, and he would on occasion pour wine for the aides who joined him for a meal."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/0/year-zelensky-bunker-ukraine-russia-war/
Of course, I don’t want to think that these were peaceful Chechens who could have been in Kyiv at that time.
This is the kind of funny circus we continue to live in.
Today I heard an anecdote that previously a trip to the Maldives was considered expensive, but now even going on vacation to neighboring Moldova starts at 10,000 dollars. There is also an old joke about how a disabled woman or one with three children used to be considered as having no future, but now she has become a profitable bride.
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Today I decided to stay and work at home. The electricity was on a new schedule - three hours off and five hours on. It's much better that way. It was windy during the day and although I tried to rest as much as possible, I still felt exhausted. I guess everything has that effect on me at once.
During the day I went to the store and again found that the prices had gone up a bit since my last visit. The Ukrainian economy is something unique. The law on increasing taxes was changed again and taxes were left only for the poor. They decided to abandon the planned increase in income tax for banks and for car purchases.
Ukraine has finally reached an agreement with creditors on the restructuring of the state debt for 20 billion dollars by 2029. The owners of Eurobonds of Ukraine made the decision almost unanimously. This will allow us to save $11.4 billion on foreign debt service over three years. In addition, in this way, Ukraine has already definitely avoided default. More than 95% of owners of Ukrainian Eurobonds approved the relevant proposal of the Ministry of Finance. This was announced by the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal. https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-glavnaya/analytics-and-forecasts/defoltu-tochno-ne-bude-ukraina-ostatochno-domovilasya-z-kreditorami.htm
But I still don't believe that someone gave up their money just like that. The state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine as of July 31, 2024 amounted to 6 trillion 374 billion hryvnias or 155.36 billion dollars. This is reported by the Ministry of Finance. During July 2024, the amount of Ukraine's debt increased in hryvnia equivalent by 206.16 billion hryvnias, in dollar equivalent the debt increased by 3.20 billion dollars. https://minprom.ua/news/315885.html
I was interested to see confirmation of my opinions and conclusions in the Foreign Policy publication. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/27/russia-establishment-ukraine-war-end-ceasefire/
For some time, there has been a debate among Western politicians, experts and the general public about how the war in Ukraine should end. The same conversations are taking place in russia, writes Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasian program of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Public Administration in a column for Foreign Policy. "Only a small minority believes that russia should fight for a complete victory in Ukraine, including the annexation of significant new Ukrainian territories or the creation of a client regime in Kyiv. The vast majority would prefer an early ceasefire roughly along the existing battle lines. Most of the interlocutors are sure that the Ukrainian military will never be able to win back the significant amount of territories lost by Ukraine.
Most of my conversations took place before the Ukrainian invasion of the russian Kursk region. However, as far as I can tell, this Ukrainian success has not changed the main russian calculations and views - not least because at the same time the russian army continues to advance further east in the Donbas, where the russians are closing in on the key city of Pokrovsk. On the other hand, every person I spoke to said that there could be no retreat from the russian-held territories in the four regions of Ukraine that Moscow allegedly annexed. In the end, of course, russia's position in the negotiations will be decided by pootin."
Together with the clear demonstration of the West's reluctance to escalate and the continuation of the active offensive of the russians, I remain pessimistic in the medium term and think that real changes will begin after the elections in the USA.
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So another working week ended and I was really tired. On the other hand, I already got the opportunity to demonstrate good results, first of all to myself. Back-up power in the office makes power outages invisible, and at home I just lie down and rest if there is no power. The weather continues to be very hot and I don't even want to eat, so I have almost nothing in the fridge. For the majority of the population, backup energy is one of the most important issues. Nobody knows what will happen in winter. How to solve the problem of heating in cities - too.
An interesting story happened with one of the shortwave receivers that I restored earlier. Its owner asked to look at it again because it started to lose sound a few seconds after turning it on. The radio is old, so I assumed that maybe something in it broke again. It had batteries in it, but I turned it on with external power and it worked great. Then I paid attention to the AA batteries, which turned out to be completely discharged. Apparently, their energy was enough for the radio to turn on, work for a few seconds and turn off again. Then they recovered a little and history repeated itself. It is obvious that this radio was not used after the restoration and was turned on only during the last blackouts. Apparently, people have completely forgotten what a radio is and how to use it...
The problem of not allowing lawyers to illegally detained people in mobilization centers in one of them was "solved" in an original way. After the scandal, a room was allocated in the Volyn mobilization center for a meeting of lawyers with conscripts. On August 15, a post was published on the official Facebook page of the Volyn regional recruitment and social support center stating that lawyers should not interfere in the mobilization process. Dmytro Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada's human rights commissioner, reacted to it and declared a violation of the rights of men of conscription age to receive legal aid. In particular, the ombudsman compared the Volyn mobilization center to places of deprivation of liberty and noted that even prisoners are allowed lawyers, but Volyn conscripts are not.
https://zaxid.net/skandal_u_volinskomu_ttsk_dlya_zustrichey_advokativ_z_prizovnikami_vidilili_kimnatu_n1592372
At the same time, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reports a significant increase in the reserves of the Armed Forces thanks to the new law on mobilization. According to the agency's data, the number of military conscripts increased by 2.5 times compared to the first quarter of the current year. https://news.telegraf.com.ua/ukr/ukraina/2024-08-30/5869395-mobilizatsiya-zbilshila-rezervi-zsu-u-25-raza-minoboroni-vidpovili-chi-mozhliva-rotatsiya-biytsiv
Poland will not shoot down russian drones or missiles over Ukraine, nor will it train Ukrainian soldiers on Ukrainian territory. This was stated by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland Paweł Zalewski during the meeting of the heads of the defense departments of the EU countries, reports RMF24.
"We are not considering in any format what is one of Ukraine's expectations, namely the possibility of shooting down missiles or drones from Polish territory," Zalewski said. He believes that "the radical strengthening of the air defense of Ukraine by the West should be sufficient and does not require such support from the Polish Air Force." He noted that "Ukraine must have something to defend itself," but emphasized that "NATO and EU countries are not parties to the war."
As such, he strongly rejected a Ukrainian proposal that NATO allies such as Poland shoot down russian missiles or drones that fly at them but are still in Ukrainian skies. Zalewski also resolutely rejected Kyiv's idea of training Ukrainian military personnel on Ukrainian territory.
This idea has the support of France and some Northern European countries. However, it did not receive unanimous support in the EU countries. First of all, Germany and Austria believe that russia may perceive this as a provocation. There are also fears that the EU will not be able to ensure the safety of European instructors.
https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-polskie-podwojne-nie-dla-ukrainy,nId,7769380#crp_state=1
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The fate of Ukrainian children, of whom there are fewer and fewer, remains a big problem. In the occupied territories, Russian propaganda works on them, abroad they are integrated into host countries, and in Ukraine they are not given due attention. https://gordonua.com/ukr/blogs/petr-andriuschenko/okupanti-ne-zajmajutsja-nikim-okrim-shkoljariv-diti-nesut-proukrajinskim-batkam-rosijski-narativi-1717535.html
Volodymyr Kudrytsky, the head of the board of Ukrenergo, is expected to write a statement of resignation of his own free will in the near future. This decision was announced by the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, at a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. On the evening of Friday, August 30, Kudrytsky refused to write a statement of his own free will. The press service of "Ukrenergo" neither confirmed nor denied this information. The reason for Zelensky's decision is the unfinished protective structures around the Ukrenergo substations, which, after the massive russian shelling on August 26, led to interruptions in the supply of electricity. "Ukrenergo" is the operator of the Ukrainian energy system, the country's energy security depends on its stable operation. Volodymyr Kudrytsky holds the position of chairman of the board of Ukrenergo under a contract that expires in August 2025. In 2023, the government approved the allocation of UAH 9.7 billion to Ukrenergo for the protection of substations. But these funds were unavailable to the company for a long time due to bureaucratic procedures, Kudrytsky said in an interview with Forbes.
https://forbes.ua/news/stavka-verkhovnogo-golovnokomanduvacha-virishila-zvilniti-kerivnika-ukrenergo-kudritskogo-vin-mae-napisati-zayavu-pro-zvilnennya-za-vlasnim-bazhannyam-30082024-23346
I don't know what actually happened there, but evil tongues say that he was made a scapegoat. Probably the same as the General Mykola Oleschuk. On Friday, August 30, President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Mykola Oleschuk from the position of commander of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It should be noted that Oleshchuk's dismissal took place against the background of the recent plane crash of the Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet. Source: https://censor.net/ua/n3507568
The decision was made individually, emotionally, unreasonably and without investigation or even pointing out the shortcomings. This resembles the dismissal of Zaluzhny. Or were there investigations and dismissals because of the bad work of these guys? Then this is a very strange way to maintain a reputation.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the crash of an F-16 fighter jet and the death of the pilot while repelling one of the russian air attacks on August 26. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/08/29/7193122/
At the same time, the media reports that Captain First Rank Roman Hladky, former First Deputy Commander of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces, has been appointed as the Chief of Staff of the Command of the Forces of Unmanned Systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Nothing is known about Roman Hladky's work experience with unmanned systems, but journalists drew attention to his problematic reputation.
In 2018, the then Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Stepan Poltorak, removed Hladky from his post pending an official investigation. Even then, the media wrote that it could allegedly be related to financial and economic violations, as well as to information about the russian citizenship of Roman Hladky's wife Elena. In particular, it was reported that for the first two years after the start of the war, Hladky's wife apparently continued to live with her children in the temporarily occupied Crimea, while the Ukrainian officer's daughter was engaged in swimming and successfully participated in competitions for the Central Sports Club of the russian Army. All this information has not been officially confirmed, but many are wondering if another person has been found for this position? https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/sili-bezpilotnih-sistem-nachalnikom-shtabu-priznachili-romana-gladkogo-50447026.html
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It’s tragic that the F16 pilot was killed and the precious plane lost. But of course battle is always extremely risky and the outcome uncertain, and mistakes happen even with the best people, training and equipment. I wonder who will want to lead any Ukraine forces given the frequent firing of commanders?
What was the conclusion of the 2018 investigation of Hladky?
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I've heard some experts say that it would be almost impossible for a pilot who is accustomed to Russian or Soviet jets, to adapt to flying an F16 with less than a year's training. So, I wonder if that was a factor. Especially when the crash was attributed to pilot error.
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I've heard some experts say that it would be almost impossible for a pilot who is accustomed to Russian or Soviet jets, to adapt to flying an F16 with less than a year's training. So, I wonder if that was a factor. Especially when the crash was attributed to pilot error.
Did I overlook a link to the accident investigation conclusion? I’d be surprised if there is a published cause yet since this happened only a few days ago, assuming that the investigation is legitimate and not a quick coverup.
No doubt it’s very difficult for a pilot knowing only Soviet style aircraft to fly a Western fighter proficiently under combat conditions. OTOH it’s easy to erroneously or corruptly blame the dead pilot, which has been done throughout aviation history.
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All Ukrainian pilots noted that piloting the F-16 is much easier than the old Soviet aircraft. I would put the version that it was a pilot's error last. Although, due to the technical complexity and age of the F-16, there could be technical problems that the pilot could not cope with in the air. But we understand that neither Ukraine nor the Pentagon will ever publicly admit that their planes have problems.
Moreover, the USA will not take on such responsibility. Perhaps this is why the USA distanced itself even from their service. You can always blame Ukrainian pilots and technical staff for everything.
The Biden administration has rejected a military proposal to send American contractors to Ukraine to maintain Western military equipment, including F-16 jet fighters, over concerns about safety, U.S. officials say. https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/white-house-rejects-plan-to-send-americans-to-ukraine-to-maintain-f-16s-34fa1967?mod=Searchresults_pos3&page=1
The deputy of the Verkhovna Rada and the deputy head of the defense committee Maryana Bezugla, known for criticizing the Ukrainian military command, wrote on her Facebook page that the fighter jet could have been mistakenly shot down by "friendly fire" from the Patriot air defense system, and that the military leadership is hiding this.
Such a statement of hers caused a wave of emotions, and the answer: "No one has hidden anything and does not hide anything!" - said the commander of the Air Force, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleschuk, regarding the circumstances of the plane crash.
In the evening after the release of this material, Volodymyr Zelenskyi dismissed Mykola Oleshchuk from his post. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cp3d2lvw0pvo
It is difficult to assume that the F-16 was shot down by the Patriot, since they must have a system of recognition of own-alien. But an anti-aircraft missile could explode next to a russian missile, next to which the plane could also be, trying to attack it. Perhaps someday the truth will be declassified, but for now we can only guess.
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I think we agree, Wlad. There are many possibilities, so to dismiss the Air Force commander so soon, apparently without conclusion of investigation, seems hasty. I can understand there may be other reasons.
To clarify my earlier point: Being easier to fly is one thing, but the pilot was in combat conditions which adds more dimensions and requirements for split-second reactions. Having compressed training in the F16 is not ideal, and having to overcome the memory of similar training and experience in Soviet aircraft could have been a factor adding to whatever occurred. If that is true I would not consider it to be pilot error. I think the pilot did the best he could.
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As I heard, there are no more air battles like in WWII. The plane is now a carrier of bombs and missiles and a target for other missiles.
Today russians have attacked energy facilities again, a lot of destruction and injuries in Sumy and Kharkiv. There are more power outages. People are asking me again to repair their old radios, but I don't have time for that.
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Hi Gene!
Hey Gene,
Bob, Jaye, and everyone, have a good day! So nice to hear you all guys. And special thanks to Wlad for keeping the thread going on.
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The air defense work and explosions woke me (and not only me) up again at night. According to Ukraine’s military, 22 cruise and air ballistic missiles were destroyed by the air force. Local authorities say three people were injured by debris from destroyed missiles.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wjey4kkp0o
Unfortunately, no one talks about the destruction caused by the unshot missiles, but characteristic flashes on the horizon and vibrations indicated hits.
Everyone arrived at the office late, were sluggish and at lunch went to a family restaurant of one of the colleagues to celebrate his birthday. However, it looked more like a continuation of the discussion of work issues during lunch. I was very tired and went home early without waiting for desserts. The team seems great and I am afraid to get used to good people.
Kate, with whom I spoke for a long time on the phone, received many emotions from the first day at the lyceum. After all, the teachers and the atmosphere there are very different from her previous school.
The situation with Ukrainian education is difficult. In an interview with BBC, the Minister of Education of Ukraine Oksen Lisovy, who is known for plagiarism during the defense of the dissertation, says that we have a shortage of teachers in the country. We have the most acute shortage of computer science teachers, mathematics teachers, and English language teachers. The average salary of a teacher is equivalent to approximately US$300. But the minister says that it will be possible to at least double their salary no earlier than when the budget receives at least 1-1.5 billion additional funds to begin with. There is a big problem with security and bomb shelters and the organization of education in schools during blackouts.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c23lre84g37o
Chinese companies are prohibited from supplying UAVs, electronic warfare equipment and parts for them to Ukraine. Some companies have already refused to cooperate with Ukrainians. As of September 1, the Chinese government is implementing new restrictions on the export of drone components from China that could potentially be used for military purposes, and Ukrainian manufacturers have already faced problems. As the South China Morning Post writes, the Chinese government published a directive on export restrictions on July 31. According to the document, government agencies will strictly control where manufacturers will deliver the following products:
- high-precision inertial measuring devices;
- synthetic aperture radars;
- engines with an output power of more than 16 kilowatts;
- means for wireless communication with a range of more than 50 km;
- consoles that can control more than 10 drones simultaneously;
- jammers for drones for civil use with an effective range of more than 5 km.
https://focus.ua/uk/digital/662602-kitay-pozbavlyaye-ukrajinu-droniv-ta-reb-shcho-mozhe-vryatuvati-virobnictvo-i-armiyu
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3272636/china-imposes-export-controls-drone-parts-military-and-civilian-use
The problem of military desertion from the Ukrainian army has reached a threatening scale. At first, the punishments were increased, but unable to punish the deserters, the authorities are ready to forgive them, if only they return to the ranks. The situation with deserters is difficult, but the consequence of an inconsistent policy against war crimes will be an even lower drop in the motivation of military personnel to defend the country. https://www.dw.com/uk/dezertirstvo-v-zsu-desatki-tisac-sprav-ale-do-sudu-dovodat-odinici2-a-69597844/a-69597844
The situation with mobilization is not getting better either. According to the current legislation, employees of mobilization centers have no right to detain conscripts under any circumstances - only police officers are authorized to do this. Otherwise, they can be held accountable - both administratively and criminally. However, as a rule, law enforcement officers are in no hurry to react to the fact that the employees of the mobilization centers exceed their official powers.
As a result, the motivation of citizens to join the military service decreases significantly. Instead, the fear of entering the army increases. Impunity breeds lawlessness. And using war to justify the fact that mobilization centers employees are not punished for exceeding their powers is a very bad idea. After all, war should not be an indulgence for impunity. https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/09/2/7472979/
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To clarify my earlier point: Being easier to fly is one thing, but the pilot was in combat conditions which adds more dimensions and requirements for split-second reactions. Having compressed training in the F16 is not ideal, and having to overcome the memory of similar training and experience in Soviet aircraft could have been a factor adding to whatever occurred. If that is true I would not consider it to be pilot error. I think the pilot did the best he could.
I agree with this. "easier" or "harder" is too simplistic a way to look at it. Which is easier, the guitar or the piano? For me, guitar. For a pianist, the piano. But you won't train me to be a pianist in six months, even though both are musical instruments.
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I agree with this. "easier" or "harder" is too simplistic a way to look at it. Which is easier, the guitar or the piano? For me, guitar. For a pianist, the piano. But you won't train me to be a pianist in six months, even though both are musical instruments.
I don't think it's an apples and oranges comparison, more like going from an Icom 718 to an Icom 7800. But I don't know any pilots personally to ask about that. It would be great if one of them wrote a book about this after the war.
Last night I woke up again because the air defenses were shooting down drones. Not getting enough sleep every night because of air attacks is unpleasant, but so far I don't feel my condition getting worse. Also, it was time for another visit to the doctor, but he said that I should do some tests first. As soon as I receive my first salary, I will immediately start doing this.
Today there is a tragedy in Poltava, where some of my friends live. Fortunately, they were not hurt, but two ballistic missiles hit the military institute of communication and the hospital located nearby. More than 40 dead and 200 wounded, but the rubble is still being cleared. https://24tv.ua/poltavskiy-viyskoviy-institut-zvyazku-shho-vidbuvalos-moment_n2633098
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cwy520l7gddo
The military institute of communication is a logical target for enemy attacks, but this could have been foreseen. Some accuse the military command of negligence and consider it unacceptable to gather cadets and troops en masse in one place. It is a pity that there is no possibility to organize military training outside the country.
Coincidentally, this was preceded also by an announcement: on the basis of one of the military units of the Poltava Region, a company of unmanned attack aircraft complexes is being formed, to which everyone is invited. Preference will be given to specialists in the fields of radio communication, aerodynamics and programming. The task of the unit will include working with new types of UAVs designed for both strike and reconnaissance operations. https://www.telegraf.in.ua/around/10131783-na-bazi-odniyeji-z-vijskovih-chastin-poltavschini-formujut-rotu-udarnih-bezpilotnih-aviacijnih-kompleksiv.html
Meanwhile, the Verkhovna Rada did not support the draft law on raising taxes https://psm7.com/uk/gosudarstvennye-organy/rada-ne-pidtrymala-zakonoproyekt-pro-pidvyshhennya-podatkiv.html
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, dismissed Rostyslav Shurma from the position of Deputy Head of the Office of the President. It was previously reported that the ex-director of Zaporizhstal, deputy head of the OP Rostislav Shurma, who was mentioned in August 2023 in the context of the scandal with state payments to solar plants in the occupation, got into the president's team a few years ago and gradually became the person who is in Zelensky's eyes. responsible for the entire economy". https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/09/3/7473311/
The Chairman of the Board of Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, was still dismissed, but the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of NEC Ukrenergo, Daniel Dobeny, and the member of the Supervisory Board, Peder Andersen, made an official statement that they too are resigning because they consider the decision to dismiss the head of Ukrenergo to be politically motivated. In their opinion, based on the results of the presented report, there are no reasonable grounds for it. They stated that "From the first days of our work in the Supervisory Board of Ukrenergo, we felt political pressure and observed constant attempts to bypass the competition to appoint people whose professional qualities were doubtful. We regularly received reports from the company's management during meetings about the negative impact on the company's reputation of anonymous sources in social networks and pressure on employees from law enforcement agencies.
And today, in conditions where the corporate management of the company according to OECD standards is called into question, we do not see the possibility of continuing our work in the Supervisory Board of Ukrenergo. Violating the principles of corporate governance and making a decision to dismiss its manager without proof of improper management is unacceptable and may affect Ukrenergo's further cooperation with ENTSO-E member operators." https://biz.nv.ua/ukr/markets/chleni-naglyadovoji-radi-ukrenergo-podali-u-vidstavku-50447980.html
It reminds me of my work in a state bank, where I saw with my own eyes how corruption won and the board member with whom I and my team worked left the bank due to disagreement with this.
Minister of Justice Denys Malyuska, Minister of Environment and Natural Resources Protection Ruslan Strelets and Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin also resigned today. In addition, a resignation letter was received from the head of the State Property Fund, Vitaliy Koval and Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olha Stefanishyna. https://delo.ua/economy/troje-ministriv-ta-golova-fdm-podali-u-vidstavku-435962/
https://unn.ua/news/olha-stefanishyna-podala-zaiavu-pro-vidstavku
The situation with these people is different because they are part of the current government team. Some suggest that rats leave a sinking ship.
The National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NAPC) has started monitoring and control over the possible violation of the anti-corruption legislation by the director of National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) Semen Kryvonis. This was announced by the first deputy director of NABU Gizo Uglava on his Facebook page, "Law and Business" informs. "I filed a statement about the existence of a real conflict of interest with the NABU director in relation to me to the disciplinary commission and in the name of the director himself. But it was ignored by all of the above. At the same time, a similar application was submitted to the relevant body - NAPC," G. Uglava noted. https://zib.com.ua/ua/162948.html
But instead Uglava himself was fired. The director of NABU made a decision to apply disciplinary sanctions in the form of dismissal to the first deputy director of the Bureau for committing a disciplinary offense - violation of the oath of office of a civil servant, violation of the rules of ethical behavior of civil servants, the Law of Ukraine "On Civil Service", the Code of Ethics of the NABU employee, - reported in NABU https://aspi.com.ua/news/politika/direktor-nabu-krivonos-zvilniv-svogo-zastupnika-uglavu-0#gsc.tab=0
It is extremely difficult to understand what is happening in the country, but the activity is very high. At the same time, the streets of Kyiv look very empty considering the beginning of the school year. Previously, this meant a mass return of people and traffic jams on the roads.
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What a mess.
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What a mess.
Personally, it reminds me of an old joke.
- Do you believe in reforms?
- My grandfather had a brothel in Odessa and when things were going badly for him, he changed prostitutes, but did not rearrange the beds.
So in Ukraine, people loyal to the authorities move from one position to another, while independent ones are gradually squeezed out.
At the same time, thanks to the support of partners, the financial situation of Ukraine remains quite stable.
The Ministry of Finance reported that Ukraine announced the successful completion and settlement of its debt restructuring operation for thirteen series of sovereign Eurobonds and the sovereign-guaranteed Eurobonds issued by Ukravtodor.
This transaction was undertaken to restore Ukraine’s debt sustainability, preserve macroeconomic stability, and free up state budget resources in the face of continued russian military aggression against Ukraine.
The restructuring process involved the exchange of thirteen series of sovereign Eurobonds and one series of the Ukravtodor sovereign-guaranteed Eurobonds, with approximately USD 20.5 billion of outstanding principal amount (around USD 24 billion including accrued interests), into eight new Eurobonds series with USD 15.2 billion in principal amount.
As a result of this transaction, Ukraine’s state and state guaranteed debt has been reduced by close to USD 9 billion. This represents an upfront nominal haircut of 37% and a present value haircut of approximately 60%, based on a 14% discount rate—making it one of the largest haircuts in recent sovereign debt restructurings.
The restructuring decreases immediate debt servicing payments by 93%, leading to savings of USD 11.4 billion over the next three years. Moreover, debt servicing costs through 2033 will be reduced by about 77%, generating total savings of USD 22.8 billion.
This deal aligns with the IMF’s Program debt sustainability targets and has been endorsed by Ukraine’s Group of Creditors.
https://mof.gov.ua/en/news/ukraine_completes_the_restructuring_of_usd_205_billion_sovereign_and_sovereign-guaranteed_eurobonds-4772
But I was very surprised by what the IMF will become the first major international financial body to send its official mission to russia since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Aleksei Mozhin, the IMF's russian executive director, told Reuters on Tuesday. https://www.reuters.com/world/imf-conduct-first-mission-russia-since-covid-moscow-says-2024-09-03/
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Today I woke up again to the work of the air defense, but in Kyiv everything was calm. This attack was aimed mainly at Lviv, where people died and buildings in the historical center of the city were destroyed. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4glyq85q5vo
Germany is sticking to its plan to deliver 12 IRIS-T SLM air defence systems to Ukraine, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, clarifying that he was referring to previous commitments. Four units have been supplied, two more are expected to be shipped by the end of the year, with the leaving six to be delivered at a later stage. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-sticking-kyiv-air-defence-supply-plan-source-says-2024-09-03/
From February 2024, russia officially resumed mass production of the FAB-3000, announcing its modernization to the FAB-3000-M54 version, which became a guided glide bomb. The new bomb weighs more than 3,000 kg, of which 1,200 kg is explosive. Its feature is the ability to hit targets at a considerable distance with high accuracy. https://flot2017.com/rf-vidnovyla-masove-vyrobnytstvo-planuiuchykh-bomb-v-isw-poiasnyly-shcho-zahrozhuie-ukrainskym-mistam/
The rotation of ministers continues, although everyone admits that the position of deputy head of the Office of the President is more important than the position of minister. However, the authorities are going to create another ministry - the Ministry of Return of Ukrainians. For me as a lawyer, all this is a ridiculous farce, when the president and parliament, whose powers have long expired, dismiss at least formally legitimate ministers. However, it is time to get used to the fact that laws are written and are mandatory for execution only for the poor. If you can seize and hold power, this is no longer your problem.
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Fatigue accumulates and at the end of the week I feel unwell. However, the first salary has been received and next week I will undergo examinations and visit the doctor. We will find out my objective indicators under load.
Now is my favorite weather - not cold and not hot, yellow leaves on the trees and very beautiful, but I'm not in the mood.
An attempt to get some sleep was unsuccessful again. Drones were buzzing very close and were shot down right overhead. Fortunately, no one was hurt in Kyiv this time and there was no destruction. https://unn.ua/news/nichna-ataka-rosiiskykh-droniv-na-kyiv-usi-bezpilotnyky-znyshcheni-sylamy-ppo Flashes in the window and loud explosions, accompanied by the screaming horns of cars on the street and the clatter of neighbors running for cover have long since become a common occurrence at night.
While the authorities are presenting the capture and retention of part of the Kursk region in russia as an achievement, the russians have advanced and have moved on to attacks on Pavlograd, which is already in the Dnepropetrovsk region. https://unn.ua/news/udar-balistykoiu-po-pavlohradu-kilkist-poranenykh-zrosla-do-64 They have not yet captured neighboring Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, but its fate is predetermined.
russia had been planning to launch a new attack on Ukraine from the Kursk region before Kyiv’s surprise cross-border incursion, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky told CNN in an exclusive interview. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/05/europe/ukraine-army-chief-kursk-incursion-exclusive-intl/index.html
Syrsky said that there’s no doubt that Ukraine is outgunned and outmanned as it tries to defend itself against the russian aggression.
“The enemy does have an advantage in aviation, in missiles, in artillery, in the amount of ammunition they use, of course, in personnel, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles,” he said.
Syrskyi said recruiting more soldiers was a priority. The Ukrainian government then passed a controversial mobilization law, requiring all men between 18 and 60 to register with Ukraine’s military and to carry their registration documents on them at all times – an effort to make the recruitment process more transparent and fair. Seven months later, the new recruits are arriving to the frontlines. But several commanders have told CNN that not all of the new soldiers are ready to fight and are routinely abandoning their positions.
Syrsky admitted his troops are heading to the battlefield after receiving less training than he’d like them to. “Of course, everyone wants the level of training to be the best, so we train highly qualified professional military personnel,” he said. “At the same time, the dynamics at the front require us to put conscripted servicemen into service as soon as possible,” he added, explaining that new recruits get one month of basic military training followed by half a month to a full month of more specialized training before they are sent to fight.
People joke that there is no point in training soldiers for a long time and spending resources on them if they live very little after getting to the front.
That is why no one wants to fight in such conditions and recruits have to be beaten and mobilized by force, and some weak recruits die even before getting to the front.
https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/uploads/monthly_2024_09/tck002.MP4.7be287e736c8cad2f98856bda9079ab0.MP4
Some of these cases are recorded by surveillance cameras or relatives of the deceased try to talk about it publicly, but the answers from mobilization centers are always the same and deny violations of laws by mobilization center employees.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/309896-v-ttsk-sdelali-zayavlenie-o-smerti-mobilizovannogo-grazhdanina-na-zakarpate#google_vignette
Syrsky told that the delays in US military assistance did cause major setbacks on the battlefield and led to a slump in morale – something he admitted was still an issue.
The USA cited another reason for refusing to grant permission for strikes deep into the russian federation. ATACMS will not be able to hit russian warplanes because they are based outside the range of these missiles. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1031829-u-ssha-nazvaly-shhe-odnu-prychynu-vidmovy-nadaty-dozvil-na-udary-vglyb-rf
In July 2024, the difficult energy situation caused a significant increase in migration abroad. Since the beginning of the year, the number of migrants has increased by almost 400,000 people. This is reported by the National Bank. According to UN estimates, the number of Ukrainian migrants in the world reached 6.739 million people, compared to 6.58 million people a month ago (that is, the number increased by 160 thousand). https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/309955-s-nachala-2024-goda-ukrainu-pokinuli-esche-400-tysyach-chelovek-natsbank
Ukraine is running out of money for the salaries of the military. While there may still be enough money to finance official salaries, there is no money to pay "combat" allowances. The Verkhovna Rada must urgently vote on changes to the state budget in order to pay servicemen their earnings on time. https://facts.today.ua/u-verhovnij-radi-vyznaly-shho-v-ukrayini-zakinchylys-groshi-dlya-zarplat-vijskovym-yakyj-vyhid-bachyt-vlada/
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Wlad, glad to hear that you are beginning to collect a paycheck, no matter what the amount. That is so important to a person's mental well-being!
Very sorry to hear that your health is making you feel worse, compounded by explosions nearby - who wouldn't be negatively affected by that?
On the domestic front here, it's clear that the Democrats in the US will support Ukraine, but only as far as to keep them on life support and not to actually achieve victory or bring Russia to the negotiatng table with reasonable demands. Hence I am inclined to vote for the alternative, on hopes that the alternative will be a bit more gutsy and take a little more risk in angering the terrorists. (Of course, there is also a risk that they will do the opposite and abandon Ukraine, although I doubt that... no politician wants to look like a loser).
I am not asking anyone to vote my way, I am only expressing how I'm inclined to think. All politicians lie about what they'll do once in office, so a voter is reduced to making their best guess - I don't fault anyone for guessing differently than I do. Hopefully that is understood. Admittedly, we have very poor candidate choices either way.
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Wlad, It’s excellent that you received your first salary in this job, and as Brady said it’s very important both financially and psychologically. I hope you will feel better this weekend and that the upcoming doctor visit and tests will be helpful.
As for support of Ukraine, I have not forgotten that Republican extremists in the US House of Representatives were responsible for the inexcusable nearly 6 month delay in weapons shipments to Ukraine, and many of their fellow party members went along. I also remain extremely frustrated with the continued failure of Biden to allow US weapons to be used broadly against Russia.
It’s clear that Putin will not use nuclear weapons in this war, and that Ukraine must have what it needs from (primarily) the US in order to succeed. Yes, Biden must consider opinions of some reticent NATO members, especially the perennially pacifist Germans, but they are also highly dependent on the US.
True to his KGB training and proven by history, Putin always prefers to operate in the shadows by degrees rather than risk open confrontations. He is a bully with a bully’s pretense but is actually a coward. One might ask why then did he dare to attack Ukraine? It’s clear that he did so only based on his belief, supported by sycophants in Russian intelligence and the military, that it would be over in days with few casualties, and the West would not intervene in any way.
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I have absolutely no time recently, but yesterday there was a fantastic online meeting with members of the Swedish club SK1BL, organized by Eric SM1TDE. Unfortunately there were connection problems at first, but the hour flew by like a minute. The attention and support from the Swedish radio amateurs were very inspiring!
On the night of September 7-8 there was a strong air attack on Kyiv and fortunately all the missiles and drones were shot down. But the drones were able to fly into the city and their buzzing was very audible. When they and the missiles were shot down right overhead, flashes lit up the entire sky and the walls shook from the shock wave. After nights like this you feel exhausted.
Last night was quieter and the drones were shooting down further, so I got almost enough sleep.
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-shakhedy-kyyiv-ataka-kmva-ppo-viyna/33112597.html
The work on the restoration of the Ohmatdyt Children's Hospital, which was badly damaged by a rocket attack two months ago, may be postponed until next year. This was reported by the Minister of Health Zoryana Skaletska. https://www.komersant.info/roboty-z-vidnovlennia-okhmatdytu-mozhut-zamorozyty-do-nastupnoho-roku-skaletska/
This is one of the best examples of how corruption works.
It is predicted that in winter, residents of large cities will spend 16 hours a day without electricity. https://mis.dp.ua/news-ua/bez-svitla-po-16-godyn-na-dobu-v-yakyh-mistah-vzymku-bude-najskladnisha-sytuacziya
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has asked Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to mediate in negotiations with the United States regarding Patriot deliveries, Messaggero reported on September 8 with reference to its sources. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/countries/ppo-dlya-ukrajini-zelenskiy-poprosiv-prem-yera-italiji-meloni-stati-poserednikom-u-peregovorah-50449284.html
On August 28, 2024, the mayor of Vyshgorod, Oleksiy Momot, announced that a poisonous substance was found in the Desna River, which flows into the Dnipro River from which Kyiv receives its water, and which flows downstream from the russian border. It is expected that this water will be in the Kyiv region already tomorrow. I have a supply of drinking water in bottles for almost a month, so I will use it until the real situation in the city water supply is clear.
https://nashkiev.ua/news/ruh-zabrudnenoi-vodi-u-desni-spovilnyuetsya-u-napryamku-kieva-podrobitsi
Ukraine has banned russian prisoners of war from making phone calls. Such restrictions do not contradict the Geneva Convention. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/09/08/novyna/suspilstvo/ukrayina-zaboronyla-vijskovopolonenym-rosiyanam-telefonni-dzvinky
I and other Ukrainians are simply shocked by the government's care of captured russians. There is an opinion that they are kept in better conditions than some Ukrainians live, especially those who lost their homes during the hostilities.
Not everyone knows that the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Sirsky, is russian, so not everyone will understand the latest joke about the Kursk offensive. They say that he decided to take a vacation and go home to his mother, but also took several brigades of the Ukrainian army with him.
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Wlad, what you describe at night is unimaginable. I have a hard enough time sleeping when there are mere fireworks displays outside, though they are far away (as occurs during July 4th celebrations in the USA). May God bless you, and also the Swedish radio club for lifting your spirits at times!
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Wlad, what you describe at night is unimaginable. I have a hard enough time sleeping when there are mere fireworks displays outside, though they are far away (as occurs during July 4th celebrations in the USA). May God bless you, and also the Swedish radio club for lifting your spirits at times!
Well said.
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The ability of our power engineers to restore objects destroyed by the russians causes surprise and admiration. They fixed everything again and the electricity has not been turned off for several days. However, air attacks continue every night. https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/667331-10-grup-shahediv-atakuvali-ukrajinu-vibuhi-prolunali-u-kilkoh-oblastyah-detali
Last night there was a strong thunderstorm, thunder and lightning could not be distinguished from the work of air defense.
In the morning it was already warm and I went to the clinic to put sensors for a Holter examination. The doctors already remembered me and asked how I was doing. I lived to be 45 and in my case it's not bad. I remember when I was a child one doctor said to me that I would be lucky if I lived to be 40. However, some technologies appeared only 20 years ago and even now are not available to everyone. I always feel special support from God, which helps me successfully pass all the tests.
It is reported that three airports in Moscow are not working due to drone attacks. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/3903910-cerez-ataku-bezpilotnikiv-u-moskvi-zakrito-tri-aeroporti.html
But the situation in the Kursk region remains uncertain, as the russians have launched their own assaults. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/nastup-zsu-u-kurskiy-oblasti-rosiyani-ropochali-shturmovi-diji-deepstate-50449972.html
The russians destroyed all thermal power plants that supplied heat to the city of Kharkiv, forcing the city to look for alternative options for providing heat. The Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, announced that small mobile boiler stations, which will be installed by local authorities, will be delivered to Kharkiv in the near future. https://24tv.ua/economy/tets-harkova-znishheni-rosiya-znishhila-usi-tets-yaki-obslugovuvali_n2638158
I doubt it will help, considering how easy a target it will be for the russians.
As a result of the pollution of the Desna River, Kyiv may be left without water supply. Therefore, in this case, the capital planned to switch to alternative sources of water supply. https://kyiv.novyny.live/zabrudnennia-desni-kiyivvodokanal-poperediv-pro-zagrozu-dlia-stolitsi-199005.html
So far, the number of advertisements of water filter sellers has increased. First they made money on masks, vaccines and tests during the pandemic, then on batteries and generators during blackouts, now it's time to make money on water filters. If you know what will be in demand tomorrow, you can become a millionaire.
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Today I saw interesting information about the fact that the residents of the Irpin (near Kyiv) community have already received more than 2.6 billion hryvnias under the program "eVidnovnelnya" to date.
These are 3,873 applicants who received a total of UAH 532,054,000 for current and major repairs (the level of processing is 92.7%);
These are 614 owners of certificates for the purchase of new housing for the total amount of 1 billion 839 million hryvnias (level of processing – 96.2%);
These are 83 owners of destroyed housing, who received monetary compensation for reconstruction on their own land for a total amount of 288 million hryvnias (level of processing - 95.9%). https://mykyivregion.com.ua/news/meskanci-irpinskoyi-gromadi-otrimali-ponad-26-milyarda-za-programoyu-jevidnovlennya
Glad that some part of the victims compensated for the losses, but it would be interesting to see the figures for the country as a whole.
The Hungarian energy company MOL announced the conclusion of an agreement for the uninterrupted supply of russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline, which passes through the territory of Ukraine. According to the agreement, MOL, which controls oil refineries in Hungary and Slovakia, will take over the supply of crude oil on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border from September 9. The updated documents, as noted, fully comply with all sanctions, including European and Ukrainian ones. https://biz.censor.net/n3509110
"The Cabinet of Ministers is not involved": Prime Minister Shmyhal placed responsibility for the future transit of gas and oil from the russian rederation on the Office of the President. He also noted that Ukraine is satisfied that the transit of russian oil will be carried out by the Hungarian company MOL, which will buy oil from Lukoil on the border with Belarus and pay for its transit through Ukraine. Source: https://biz.censor.net/n3509194
That is, Europe continues to buy russian oil and sponsor russia to continue the war. This is understandable. What is the benefit for Ukraine - it is not clear. Although Ukraine is very different - while some Ukrainians die, others earn. In this regard, I did not understand people’s expectations that the US and Great Britain would provide a lot of missiles and allow them to be used on russian territory.
The heads of the US and British diplomatic departments, Anthony Blinken and David Lammy, arrived in Kyiv on Wednesday. It was reported that the parties will discuss further support for Ukraine to protect against russian aggression, as well as ways to ensure the prosperity of Ukraine in "military, economic and democratic terms in the long term". Blinken said Tuesday that his trip is partly to see "how exactly the Ukrainians see their needs at this moment, what the goals are and what we can do to support those needs." https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/09/11/7193953/
Maybe we will see the results of the meeting later, but I am sure that like the previous help, it will come too little and too late to matter.
Germany will continue to support Ukraine in its fight against the aggressor, but at the same time calls for finding ways to end the war politically with a just peace. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said this in the Bundestag on Wednesday during a debate on the country's budget for the next year. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/3904397-solc-obicae-pidtrimuvati-ukrainu-ale-vvazae-nastav-cas-dla-peregovoriv.html
Turkey's support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine remains unchanged, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a video address to the participants of the 4th Crimean Platform summit, reports Anadolu Agency. "Turkey sincerely wishes to end the war with a just and lasting peace based on the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine," Erdogan emphasized. https://interfax.com.ua/news/political/1013179.html
Many words and few weapons. It is obvious that the main players are interested in ending the war, which everyone will pass off as a victory. Perhaps the main thing now is to preserve what is left of Ukraine, and in the event of an end to the war, there will be an opportunity to hold elections and try to change the government while the processes in the country are still under control. If the destruction of Ukraine's energy system continues in winter, it may lead to collapse and complete chaos.
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Saturday evening, and I'm tired. I had to do some work, a lot of household chores had piled up during the week, the repair of another radio was delayed due to numerous corrosion - after I fixed one problem, another one was discovered. However, I didn't miss "English lessons" with Colin.
Kate was at the student initiation yesterday. Their oldest royal lyceum in Krakow used the royal castle for ceremonial events. It seems Kate got into the company of the upper class. In Europe, this still has a great meaning.
https://krakow.naszemiasto.pl/wyjatkowe-slubowanie-licealistow-2-lo-im-sobieskiego-w/ar/c5-9794455
Again, no news in Ukraine that would make me happy.
The Toronto International Film Festival said Thursday it is suspending upcoming screenings of the controversial documentary russians At War due to “significant threats to festival operations and public safety.” The announcement came a day after TIFF stood by the film, which is helmed by a russian-Canadian director and received Canadian public funding, amid growing backlash from the Ukrainian community and government officials for both Ukraine and Canada. A large protest was held outside Tuesday’s debut screening and another was planned for Friday. The protests were organized by Ukrainian-Canadian community leaders who have called the film “russian propaganda” — a charge denied by the filmmaker and festival organizers — and called for government and criminal investigations and for TIFF to cancel screenings of the film. https://globalnews.ca/news/10752951/tiff-suspends-russians-at-war-screenings-threats/
The mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was in Ukraine from September 4 to 10, preliminarily approved the allocation of a new tranche in the amount of $1.1 billion. By the end of 2024, Ukraine expects to receive another $13.5 billion in external financing, in addition to $24.5 billion, which have already arrived. But the IMF worsened the macro forecasts for Ukraine and hinted that our country should focus on internal sources of filling the budget, and not wait for help from the outside.
For its part, the National Bank added pessimism and stated that it is currently not ready to continue the easing of monetary policy, and now warned that hopes for maintaining the growth rate of Ukraine's GDP in 2025 may not come true. https://mind.ua/publications/20278824-shche-odin-transh-na-11-milyarda-ta-pogani-prognozi-dlya-vvp-ukrayini-chim-zavershilasya-misiya-mvf
The head of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Radoslaw Sikorsky, called for an end to aid payments to Ukrainian refugees, believing that this reduces Ukraine's mobilization potential. Sikorsky said that in Poland, Ukrainian refugees receive only 200 euros per month for each child, but additional payments in other countries encourage them not to return home. He is convinced that financial support for refugees in Western Europe is an incentive for young men and women to stay abroad instead of returning and defending their country.
https://24tv.ua/radoslav-sikrovskiy-zayaviv-shho-dopomoga-bizhentsyam-znizhuye_n2640160
Poland was ready to start training recruits on August 1, but recruitment never took place. There is no information about recruiting to the "Ukrainian Legion" on the websites of the Ukrainian embassy and consulates. In response to the journalists' request, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs replied that the Polish Ministry of Defense would comment on the situation.
The Ministry of Defense of Poland reported that the responsibility for recruiting lies on the Ukrainian side. At the same time, at the time of publication, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense did not provide any comments.
The creation of the legion was announced by the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, during the signing of the security agreement with Poland in early July. https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/swiat/artykuly/9599138,legion-ukrainski-na-razie-na-papierze-opoznienia-nawet-w-rekrutacji.html
The "military" personal income tax was withdrawn from the budgets of communities in 2023, but for January-July of this year, the main managers of budget funds used only 45% of the actual income of personal income tax, the Ministry of Finance reported. In addition, in 2023, 65% of the funds withdrawn from communities were used.
https://www.volynnews.com/news/all/asotsiatsiia-mist-ukrayiny-minfin-vyznav-shcho-vyluchennia-viyskovoho-pdfo-u-hromad-vyiavylosia-neefektyvnym/
There is an opinion that the reason may be that the unused funds, which are intended for the defense of the country, if not used by the end of the year, go to the general budget.
Since the beginning of the year, Ukrainians have spent more than 1.6 billion dollars on the purchase of new cars, which is 19% more than in the same period last year. Among the leaders are Toyota, BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen. https://mind.ua/news/20278076-protyagom-cogo-roku-ukrayinci-vitratili-67-mlrd-grn-na-novi-avto
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Information about the Kursk offensive appears. Ukraine’s Kursk offensive was seen as a major success, but it came at a huge cost https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/13/world/ukraine-kursk-offensive-cost/index.html
The Kursk operation has given the Ukrainians a huge morale boost, being Kyiv’s first big strategic gain since the liberation of Kherson in November 2022.
In an exclusive interview with CNN last week, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky gave what was the most detailed explanation yet of the rationale behind the incursion. He said its aim was to stop russia from using Kursk as a launchpad for a new offensive, to divert Moscow’s forces from other areas, to create a “security zone” and prevent cross-border shelling of civilians, to take prisoners of war and – indeed – to boost the morale of Ukraine’s troops and the nation overall.
Zelensky, meanwhile, said that another goal of the operation was to show Kyiv’s Western allies that with the right support, its military can fight back and eventually win the war.
But soldiers involved in the operation who spoke with CNN said it was a difficult undertaking.
Ukraine has been under pressure on its eastern front for most of this year and is still struggling to recover from the huge setbacks caused by delays in the delivery of US military assistance last winter and in the spring. russian attacks on the northern territories of Ukraine have not stopped, and the evacuation of the population continues.
I noticed that it involved soldiers who were taken from the front, and not the mythical "new brigades" that were talked about so much. It turns out that tens of thousands of new soldiers who became victims of the intensive mobilization six months ago have disappeared like water in the sun. Apparently, this explains the ongoing retreat of the Ukrainian army in the east.
Several units have told CNN that navigation and communication between units and their commanders were a major problem in Kursk. With GPS and cellphone signals jammed, the Ukrainians have been relying on the Starlink internet service. But they are finding the service doesn’t work at all in certain parts of the Kursk region.
It turns out that the mistake of the counteroffensive of the summer of 2022 was repeated and the Ukrainian army still does not have reliable special military radio communications, for example, radio stations like those made by Harris. I understand that all the attention of the population is focused on the F-16 and other spectacular things, but the effectiveness of communications is much more important. It turns out that for the third year, the Ukrainian army has been fighting using civilian GPS, mobile communications and the Internet, and this raises even more questions about the competence of the leadership of the army and the country.
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A little about what document verification looks like in Ukraine. If you have documents, you go further, if not, you go to the army. And then they will wonder why no one else wants to fight for this country. However, this is all just the consequences of the 2019 elections.
https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/uploads/monthly_2024_09/VID_20240915_081916_093.mp4.c271687ce247e365b8ffa728ec9f4f48.mp4
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J.D. Vance revealed the Trump plan for Ukraine peace. It would allow Russia to keep all seized territory, establish a “demilitarized” zone at the border, require Ukraine to stay neutral and never join NATO.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/us/politics/vance-trump-ukraine-russia-war.html
In other words, give Putin what he wants. I’m not surprised at all.
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J.D. Vance revealed the Trump plan for Ukraine peace. It would allow Russia to keep all seized territory, establish a “demilitarized” zone at the border, require Ukraine to stay neutral and never join NATO.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/us/politics/vance-trump-ukraine-russia-war.html
In other words, give Putin what he wants. I’m not surprised at all.
There are different points of view on this in Ukraine. Some talk about the 1991 borders and are ready to fight until victory. Usually, neither these people nor their loved ones personally fight. They also do not take into account the economy or demography and do not think about the fact that every day of a war like this brings thousands of deaths and destruction, loss of territory. They are generally not very interested in anything that does not concern them personally.
Others believe that with such mobilization and arms supplies as now, Ukraine will not only not return the occupied territories, but will also continue to slowly lose people and territory until collapse occurs. It is already clear that while the war is going on, there will be no elections, Ukraine will not join NATO and the EU, so Trump's position looks like what happens when a business gets a crisis. You can continue to do the same thing that led to the crisis, or you can fix the losses, change the management and try to change something in the strategy. The question now is not what pootin will get, but what Ukraine risks losing. On the other hand, for some people every day of war means huge profits and these people make decisions that are not in favor of those who are dying and will continue to die.
According to a confidential Ukrainian estimate made this year, the number of dead Ukrainian soldiers is 80,000, and the wounded - 400,000, writes the WSJ with reference to informed sources. Western intelligence estimates of russian casualties vary, with some putting the number as high as nearly 200,000 dead and around 400,000 wounded. https://www.wsj.com/world/one-million-are-now-dead-or-injured-in-the-russia-ukraine-war-b09d04e5
But we must not forget that all figures are relative and that russia has compensated for all its losses in people and resources many times over through the occupied territories, while Ukraine has additionally lost about 6 million people who left the country.
Lately, you can often see men with prosthetics. They shine in the sun and catch the eye. As a rule, these are young men. Probably, when an old man's leg is torn off at the ass, his chances of survival are minimal. Even if it only gets torn off at the knee, that won't be easy either.
Meanwhile, the situation in the Kursk region began to change. The russians launched a counteroffensive and the situation became very complicated. The peculiarity of the russian counteroffensive is that, firstly, the russians have engaged in active battles so far only up to 10,000 of the 40,000-strong group of the russian Armed Forces gathered in the Kursk region.
Secondly, the russians almost do not use artillery and aviation directly on the line of battle, because the war is a maneuver and cases of "friendly fire" occurred almost every day from the very beginning of the Ukrainian offensive. Therefore, the russian generals decided to do without massive artillery and air raids for the time being. https://gazeta.ua/blog/62205/kurskij-nastup-vazhki-boyi-a-rosiyani-ne-zadiyali-j-polovini-svoyih-sil
At the same time, the russians are actively shelling the Sumy region, through which the supply of the Kursk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine passes. Also, due to shelling in Sumy region, many energy facilities were destroyed. https://suspilne.media/sumy/838069-armia-rf-vdarila-raketami-po-sumah-artuh/
Some of Ukraine’s top army commanders questioned the cross-border assault into russia, Ukrainian military officials tell POLITICO.
Zaluzhny’s objection to the incursion, meanwhile, was that there was no clear second step after the border had been successfully breached by elite Ukrainian units drawn from four brigades, according to these officials. Zaluzhny queried: once you have the bridgehead, what then? “He never got a clear answer from Zelenskyy,” said one of the officials. “He felt it was a gamble,” he said. https://www.politico.eu/article/kursk-russia-incursion-objections-war-in-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy/
russia did not wait for the allies to allow Ukraine to use its missiles on the territory of the russian Federation, and in advance moved its aviation away from the front. This process has been going on for several months. The very existence of the threat forces the Russians to reduce the intensity of combat aviation. On the other hand, since this threat is stretched over time, russian forces are adapting to it and developing new methods of strikes. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c148l04044eo
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But it all always comes back to money.
West funding potin’s soldiers with growing russian fuel purchases. Western allies bought roughly $2 billion in fuel made from russian oil in the first half of 2024, using a sanctions loophole that enables Moscow to pay its soldiers in Ukraine, an upcoming report seen by POLITICO has found. The shipments of gasoline, diesel and other products made from Russian crude oil have grown in recent months as a result of imports from just three Turkish refineries. https://www.politico.eu/article/west-funding-vladimir-putin-soldier-russia-fuel-oil-ukraine-war/
US military aid packages for Ukraine have been smaller in recent months, as the stockpiles of weapons and equipment that the Pentagon is willing to send Kyiv from its own inventory have dwindled. The shift comes amid concerns about US military readiness being impacted as US arms manufacturers play catchup to the huge demand created by the war against russia.
The shortage means the Biden administration still has $6 billion in funds available to arm and equip Ukraine, but the Pentagon lacks the inventory it is willing to deliver more than two years into the war, two US officials told CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/17/politics/us-reducing-military-aid-packages-ukraine/index.html
Some of Ukraine’s allies are starting to talk about how the fight against russia’s invasion might end, raising concerns in several other Western capitals that these efforts could lead to Kyiv being forced into a premature cease-fire. As part of their discussions of strategy for the next year, officials are more seriously gaming out how a negotiated end to the conflict and an off-ramp could take shape, according to people familiar with the matter who asked for anonymity to discuss private deliberations. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-17/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-kyiv-s-allies-start-to-look-at-how-it-could-work?srnd=phx-politics
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reacted to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's criticism of the Sino-Brazilian "peace plan" and his call to his colleague to work together to end the war. Lula da Silva said that Ukraine had to speak before the start of a full-scale war with russia. https://www.metropoles.com/brasil/lula-apos-fala-de-zelensky-poderia-ter-conversado-antes-da-guerra
The recent talks in Kyiv between Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis were said to have taken place in a very tense atmosphere. During the talks, the Ukrainian president was supposed to express numerous reservations about Poland's attitude. According to Onet, there was supposed to be a clash there. "Poles were surprised by Zelensky's style" https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/scysja-sikorskiego-z-prezydentem-ukrainy-polacy-byli-zaskoczeni-stylem-zelenskiego/jpppe4v
Volodymyr Zelensky allegedly had reservations, among other things, about the weakening of Poland's military support for Ukraine, or about Poland's weak involvement in supporting Ukraine in accession talks with the European Union. The issue of the Volhynian massacre was also supposed to be a point of contention.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs summed up Radosław Sikorski's three-day visit in a special statement. "The head of the MFA emphasized that during the conversation he raised historical issues in relations between Poland and Ukraine, including those concerning the truth about the Volhynian Massacres. The minister emphasized that reconciliation between nations is one of the conditions for Ukraine's entry into United Europe, and the issue of exhumation and burial of 100 thousand victims is not a political issue — only a civilizational one," it was noted. https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/napiecie-pomiedzy-sikorskim-a-zelenskim-nowakowski-mowi-jasno/c0lhy56
While Ukraine continues to "win" one victory after another on the international stage, the question of where to get money is being decided within the country.
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a law that provides:
• increase in military levy from 1.5% to 5%
• increase in taxes for entrepreneurs
• advance payments at gas stations
• 25% of profit to financial institutions
• monthly income tax reporting (for economy booking)
• 50% tax on bank profits in 2024.
https://agro-business.com.ua/agrobusiness/item/30613-rada-skhvalyla-zakonoproiekt-pro-pidvyshchennia-podatkiv.html
The government has also submitted a draft budget for 2025, which foresees a drop in economic growth, a weakening of the hryvnia against the dollar and high inflation. In 2025, defense spending will increase even more and exceed two trillion hryvnias. This is more than a quarter of the entire Ukrainian GDP and more than half of all budget expenditures. The need for external financing, according to the draft budget, amounts to 38.4 billion dollars (approximately the same as in 2024), but so far half of this amount is not guaranteed.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cr544pmrj98o
I doubt that the government will be able to collect the required amount of taxes, so they will most likely print money.
On Sunday I saw a message from Oleg UR8LV from Kharkiv, who is collecting money for materials for antennas again. Previously, he made antennas for radio amateurs, but recently there is no demand for them and he began making them for the military. I know him personally and think he deserves support. Last year we already helped him and his small efforts have a big effect compared to the billions that international organizations transfer to our authorities, but which never reach ordinary people. During the day, the necessary 500 dollars were collected, enough to manufacture 40 antennas. https://ur8lv.com/1621830712
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I enjoyed watching the video of initiation ceremonies at Kate’s school! There is nothing like that here, in general, though some private schools might.
When will you learn the results of the Holter monitor, and about any changes indicated?
Glad that Oleg had good monetary support for making more antennas. I recall donating last time, and will again, if it’s needed. Please let us know.
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I enjoyed watching the video of initiation ceremonies at Kate’s school! There is nothing like that here, in general, though some private schools might.
When will you learn the results of the Holter monitor, and about any changes indicated?
Glad that Oleg had good monetary support for making more antennas. I recall donating last time, and will again, if it’s needed. Please let us know.
Thank you Bob!
Kate really likes her lyceum, but unfortunately she caught a cold at that ceremony and is staying home this week. Nothing serious.
Today I saw a few sick people today who were carrying their snot on the bus. I'll probably go to the office less often to avoid infection.
My doctor still hasn't answered me and if he doesn't make an appointment tomorrow, I'll remind him about myself on Monday.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that his "Victory Plan", intended to bring peace to Ukraine while keeping the country strong and avoiding all "frozen conflicts", was now complete after much consultation. Zelensky pledged last month to present his plan to U.S. President Joe Biden, presumably next week when he attends sessions of the U.N. Security Council and General Assembly. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-says-victory-plan-is-ready-2024-09-18/
Unfortunately, this plan, which should decide the fate of millions of Ukrainians, is unknown to the Ukrainians themselves. Authoritarianism as it is.
Artillery shells sold by Indian arms makers have been diverted by European customers to Ukraine and New Delhi has not intervened to stop the trade despite protests from Moscow, according to 11 Indian and European government and defence industry officials, as well as a Reuters analysis of commercially available customs data. The transfer of munitions to support Ukraine's defence against russia has occurred for more than a year, according to the sources and the customs data. Indian arms export regulations limit the use of weaponry to the declared purchaser, who risks future sales being terminated if unauthorised transfers occur. https://www.reuters.com/world/ammunition-india-enters-ukraine-raising-russian-ire-2024-09-19/
At the same time, India is going to modernize its T-72 tanks, of which there are more than 2,500 thousand, in cooperation with russia for subsequent export. https://www.indiandefensenews.in/2024/09/india-to-upgrade-t-72-tanks-for-export.html
I would not be surprised if these tanks then end up in russia. War is a very profitable business, provided that it is not on your territory.
A major Ukrainian drone attack on russia triggered a giant blast and forced the partial evacuation of residents near the site of a large russian arsenal in the Tver region on Wednesday, war bloggers and some media reported. According to a RIA state news agency report from 2018, russia was building an arsenal for the storage of missiles, ammunition and explosives in Toropets. The arsenal was built in 2015 at a cost of $39 million, according to rossiyskaya Gazeta, the russian government's official newspaper. It was equipped with cold and heated rooms, electrical substations, treatment facilities, water and fuel storage tanks, and more than a hundred fire ponds, rossiyskaya Gazeta said. The full load of each storage facility of the arsenal is up to 240 tons. The arsenal also has facilities to accommodate up to 200 servicemen.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-do-we-know-about-ukrainian-attack-russias-tver-region-2024-09-18/
Despite the sanctions introduced by the West against the russian federation, the russian military-industrial complex is actively functioning. Forbes Ukraine writes about this with reference to the data of an interlocutor in one of the intelligence structures. https://forbes.ua/war-in-ukraine/rosiya-viroblyae-vid-130-dalekobiynikh-raket-ta-ponad-500-droniv-na-misyats-forbes-ukraine-diznavsya-detali-17092024-23667
According to him, the pace of missile production in russia is 132-171 units per month, for which the occupiers spend 1.1 billion dollars. They used approximately the same number of missiles during the massive attack on Ukraine on August 26. Every month, the russian federation produces from 42 to 56 ballistic missiles and from 90 to 115 long-range cruise missiles. They can be used for deep strikes on Ukrainian territory, in particular on the energy infrastructure of our country. The pace of production of Shahed drones is even faster - more than 500 units.
For the third time since the beginning of the full-scale war with Ukraine, the leadership of the russian federation has issued a decree to increase the size of the army. This time it is planned to increase by 180,000 people, so the total number will be 1.5 million people. https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1836688896941260849
At the same time, there is growing concern about the possible consequences of an adventurous attack and seizure of part of the Kursk region on the eve of winter and a total shortage of resources in the Ukrainian army. https://www.ft.com/content/a22f7d1f-605b-42fc-ac76-98f59b5497a6 However, as the results of the 2022 counteroffensive show, in the worst case, commanders will receive awards and a well-deserved rest in a foreign embassy, and the new commander-in-chief will again be able to say that he needs even more people and a tougher mobilization for success.
Ukrainian soldiers sometimes disassemble a malfunctioning FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missile in order to remove the warhead and equip an FPV drone with it. Some believe that such videos are made for the sake of hype. https://defence-ua.com/news/koli_i_chomu_u_zsu_vimusheni_rozbirati_javelin_zaradi_bojovoji_chastini_dlja_fpv_droniv-16632.html
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Since recently Ukrainian citizenship means only duties and no rights and their protection, more and more people are deciding to abandon it. This primarily applies to men.
MP Mykola Knyazhytsky said that hundreds of thousands of people have submitted applications to renounce Ukrainian citizenship. According to him, the country is witnessing a real demographic catastrophe, in particular due to the fact that some Ukrainians have dual citizenship and are trying to get rid of Ukrainian passports. https://prm.ua/ukraintsi-masovo-vidmovliaiutsia-vid-hromadianstva-lezhat-sotni-tysiach-zaiav/
The Supreme Court recently concluded that the current legislation of Ukraine does not provide for a clear prohibition of dual citizenship. Although dual (multiple) de jure citizenship in Ukraine is not provided for at the legislative level, it does exist via facti (for example, simultaneous acquisition by a child of Ukrainian citizenship and citizenship of another state or states). https://sud.ua/uk/news/sudebnaya-praktika/310980-bp-vs-vyskazalas-o-vozmozhnosti-prekrascheniya-grazhdanstva-ukrainy-pri-nalichii-pasporta-drugoy-strany
In this regard, the detention of the WBC, WBO, WBA and IBO super heavyweight world champion Oleksandr Usyk at the Kraków airport on Tuesday, September 17, caused a vague reaction in society. Perhaps no one would have found out about this and paid attention to it, if not for the reaction of Zelensky, who personally intervened and instructed the Ministers of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to make every effort to save the boxer. "The Ukrainian side categorically does not accept the attitude shown in the video towards its citizen and champion. In addition, Minister Andriy Sybiga will already contact his Polish colleague with the aim of immediately resolving this situation. The Minister also instructed the Consul General to express his protest and indignation at such an attitude," said the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Tyhiy. https://sud.ua/uk/news/video/310835-ukrainskogo-boksera-aleksandra-usika-zaderzhali-v-aeroportu-krakova-video
In my personal opinion, no one detains anyone for no reason, let alone handcuffs. Unfortunately, such concern does not extend to ordinary Ukrainians in Ukraine. I'm not talking about another deterioration of relations with Poland. And then they wonder why people don't want to be citizens of this country.
Meanwhile, air attacks on Kyiv and other cities continue every day...
https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1035057-u-kyyevi-vnochi-bulo-chutno-zvuky-vybuhiv-bilya-mista-pratsyuvala-ppo
https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/obstril-harkova-17-veresnya-kilkist-postrazhdalih-zbilshilas-do-dev-yati-50451734.html
And the fact that russian cities are also occasionally attacked does not make life in Ukraine any easier. https://tsn.ua/svit/bezpilotniki-atakuvali-kilka-regioniv-rosiyi-vnochi-v-odnomu-z-mist-ogoloshena-chastkova-evakuaciya-2661879.html
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The ability of our power engineers to restore objects destroyed by the russians causes surprise and admiration.
This amazes me even more since I'm somewhat familiar with power grid, what are they made of, and how they work. The problem is that any given part of the grid is unique custom made. Even in good times one should first design a thing that would fit its place - say a transformer, then place an order to make it, and wait for delivery and installation for months.
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Last night I woke up from the smell of smoke and decided that there was a fire somewhere nearby, but it turned out that the peat bogs near Kiev were burning again. Air pollution was five times higher than normal and the city authorities called for closing the windows and not being outside for long. I listened to them and stayed home to work. It was the right decision. The air had an orange tint and smelled strongly. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-zabrudnennya-povitrya-kmda/33127747.html
The National Coordination Center for Cyber Security (NCCC) decided to limit the use of the Telegram messenger in state bodies, military formations and critical infrastructure facilities. The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, provided substantiated data regarding the availability of russian special services to the personal correspondence of Telegram users, even deleted messages, as well as their personal data. Representatives of the Security Service of Ukraine and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine noted that Telegram is actively used by the enemy for cyber attacks, the distribution of phishing and malicious software, establishing the geolocation of users, correcting missile strikes, etc. https://www.facebook.com/rnbou/posts/pfbid02XozkEVd5JWi4G9p3z8L1VHjzoM6aq1Fm6VpuppjYfMtB76muUmTfjaiiZrHQZ3tfl
russia’s military command had anticipated Ukraine’s incursion into its Kursk region and had been making plans to prevent it for several months, according to a cache of documents that the Ukrainian army said it had seized from abandoned russian positions in the region. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/20/revealed-russia-anticipated-kursk-incursion-months-in-advance-seized-papers-show
The first 400 million euros from the tranche, which consists of revenues from frozen russian assets, will go to finance Ukrainian defense enterprises, in particular to the production of self-propelled guns "Bohdana". In August, the authorities of the European Union allocated 1.4 billion euros to Ukraine from the income from russian frozen assets. The initiator of this scheme was Denmark, which also became the first country to sign a contract and pay for the production of "Bogdana" for the Armed Forces. EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Maternova told about this in an interview with "European Truth". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZsmKjme1x4
It was proposed to create the Ukraine Loan Cooperation Mechanism (ULCM), which will provide an irreversible form of macro-financial assistance. The decision of the European Commission is part of the G7 initiative (not an alternative) regarding the mechanism of additional loans to increase revenues to the budget of Ukraine (Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine). Ukraine itself will determine where to direct the funds. Macro-financial assistance will not be tied to specific expenses, while at the same time it will allow to provide the most urgent needs. https://news.telegraf.com.ua/ukr/ukraina/2024-09-20/5872358-ukraina-ne-budet-vozvrashchat-kredit-es-v-minfine-obyasnili-kogda-i-kuda-napravyat-35-mlrd-evro?traffic_source=ukr.net
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Recently, local media have started reporting on arson of cars belonging to the military. Usually these are old cars that volunteers have been bringing in from abroad en masse since the invasion in 2022. They are usually painted green and have foreign license plates or no license plates at all. Sometimes these cars are driven by those who pretend to be military. The police sometimes report the detention of those on orders from the "Kremlin", although I do not know the real motives of the arsonists. https://wz.lviv.ua/news/519581-u-kyievi-zatrymaly-pidpaliuvachiv-viiskovykh-mashyn But apparently the police are not effective enough in catching criminals. Recently, a video appeared where supposedly the military independently detained those who tried to set fire to cars for the purpose of reprisal. https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/uploads/monthly_2024_09/video_2024-09-20_06-12-57.mp4.54b84a007ca0d61eabb0010c2eec6bbb.mp4 Perhaps this video is staged to discredit the military, but some people support it.
But everyone's attention is now focused on Zelensky's visit to the US, for which many have inflated expectations. Zelensky himself is making more incredible statements.
Regarding his victory plan, which he intends to present in the United States, Zelensky explained: "We are already in plan B. We live and fight in it, we never had a plan A. Because plan A was to prevent a full-scale russian invasion, plan "A" was to arm Ukraine and preemptively sanction the russian federation so that it would fear even the thought of a full-scale invasion."
Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the USA is scheduled for September 26. He will meet with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris at the White House. A meeting with Donald Trump is also planned.
Zelensky intends to present to Biden the Victory Plan, the details of which are currently not being disclosed. According to the President of Ukraine, the implementation of some points of the Plan depends only on the decision of the USA. "The plan is designed for decisions that must take place starting from October and ending in December". https://hvylya.net/uk/news/299792-zelenskiy-ukraina-uzhe-zhivet-po-planu-b
Well, it's quite honest to admit that the authorities were not prepared for war at all and it's naive to expect that the US will make some decision so that Ukraine will win, that is, to shift all responsibility to the US. And also to set the deadline until December of this year. I wonder what their plan "C" is in case the US doesn't agree to implement their secret plan "B"? I can only assume that they don't have one either.
History has known many idiots who destroyed entire nations and countries, and probably these nations themselves were to blame for who they entrusted power to, but I don’t really like being part of another such story.
Does America want Ukraine to defeat russia? It doesn’t look that way, says the editor of Politico https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/09/18/america-ukraine-russia-biden-00179657
And if we recall the previous position of the United States regarding Ukraine and the fate of Afghanistan, then I do not share Zelensky’s optimism that in the next few months something will be done that was not done in the previous two years.
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I think the Politico article is spot on. Will Biden step out of his timid, incremental approach in the last few months of his presidency? Perhaps, but if he didn’t see fit to do it all this time then I fail to see what would suddenly convince him to change. I doubt he will.
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Zelensky's visit is so poorly timed. This isn't a time when a president is going to risk a global crisis, in return for who-knows-what. He should be visiting after the November election.
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Zelensky's visit is so poorly timed. This isn't a time when a president is going to risk a global crisis, in return for who-knows-what. He should be visiting after the November election.
Apparently, after the elections, another plan will be implemented, in which Zelensky will not be at all.
Today, for the first time since I started working, I feel rested. The smog in the morning was insignificant and I rode my bike, then talked with Colin G3ZAF. First, a short QSO on the air, then an hour and a half continued on Zoom. It is difficult to describe how happy I am to be able to no longer experience a language barrier in communicating with people around the world! Then Sergiy came to me and we changed the coolant in his car. He also noted that there were more cars with Kharkiv license plates on the roads. To which I asked, where else would they go?
Unfortunately, the russians continue to shell Kharksv every day. https://gordonua.com/ukr/news/military-actions/unochi-okupanti-obstriljali-tsentr-kharkova-postrazhdalo-15-ljudej-odin-iz-prilotiv-buv-bilja-likarni-foto-1719643.html
Also today there were many striking videos of explosions at military warehouses in russia. The authorities say that one of them was storing missiles brought from North Korea. In any case, the more russian weapons are destroyed on their territory, the less of them will hit Ukraine. One of these large warehouses is located near Tikhoretsk, a small town in the Krasnodar region in southwestern russia.
https://weukraine.tv/novyny/rosijani-zajavili-pro-ataku-bpla-na-skladi-z-bojepripasami-u-dvokh-rehionakh/
https://gordonua.com/ukr/news/military-actions/zjavilisja-suputnikovi-znimki-najbilshoho-v-rf-arsenalu-u-krasnodarskomu-kraji-pislja-ataki-bpla-pozhezha-trivaje-1719690.html
This area was populated mainly by Ukrainians and spoke Ukrainian a hundred years ago. More than 10 years ago I was traveling there and seeing a large antenna, I stopped by and met a local radio amateur. How everything has changed...
Also, the drones of the Security Service of Ukraine hit the infrastructure of the Shaykovka military airfield in the Kaluga region, where TU-22M strategic aircraft are stationed, which regularly fire at Ukraine. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3908083-droni-sbu-urazili-infrastrukturu-vijskovogo-aerodromu-sajkovka-u-rosii-dzerelo.html
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, signed the law on increasing defense spending in the 2024 budget. This is more than 10 billion dollars. This set a new record for expenditures for Ukraine - almost 91 billion dollars, which is 2.3 times more than the budget before the start of a full-scale war.
The Cabinet of Ministers proposes the possibility of privatization of state universities and their property. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/310991-kabmin-predlagaet-nachat-rasprodazhu-gosudarstvennykh-universitetov-i-ikh-imuschestva.
Previously, there were many scandals due to the illegal alienation of land of state universities, on which houses or offices were then built. Considering the decrease in the number of future students, this will not be a big problem, but it will give the authorities the opportunity to get some more money from the sale and reduce the expenses for their maintenance.
The Ukrainian proverb is confirmed again: Why are we poor? Because we are illiterate. Why are we illiterate? Because we are poor.
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Zelensky's visit is so poorly timed. This isn't a time when a president is going to risk a global crisis, in return for who-knows-what. He should be visiting after the November election.
Indeed, and it seems desperate to have something agreed to now. Perhaps he fears that neither candidate would be as supportive as Biden. Or, as Wlad suggested, Z. might not have much more time to act on this stage.
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He should be visiting after the November election.
Hope he'll be preparing the ground for next visit as well.
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The weather continues to be wonderful and I continue to ignore the air raid alarms at night these last few days, preferring to sleep more. I get very tired at work, which is really interesting and I always want to do this and that and something else.
Today I made one work appointment near the hospital and, combining work with personal, I finally visited the doctor. He looked at the results of the tests, asked about how I was feeling and concluded that my condition was better than he expected, but left the medication unchanged because I still had rhythm problems. The next appointment is before the New Year, and I will have to take the pills for at least another year and a half. He also said to take vitamins. I agree with this, especially considering the recent leg cramp that I suffered from for half the night the day before yesterday.
The hospital is located near a place where several rockets hit in the summer and there are still piles of garbage and burnt buildings. Otherwise, it is difficult to say that there is a war in Kyiv.
But in Kharkiv today there is new destruction and casualties due to air strikes. Aircraft bombs cannot be shot down by air defense and are extremely inaccurate. Although it is impossible to say with certainty where the russian terrorists are aiming. https://suspilne.media/kharkiv/843411-u-harkovi-vdruge-za-den-prolunali-vibuhi-povitrani-sili-poperedzali-pro-nebezpeku-aviabomb/
However, civilian casualties have not stopped anyone from bombing cities for a long time. As hospitals across Lebanon struggle to cope with the sheer number of casualties from yesterday’s widespread Israeli air strikes, the Lebanese health minister has said what happened in his country was “carnage”. Dr Firas Abiad told me it was “clear” that many victims of the attacks were civilians, including children and women, who were in their homes doing “normal things”. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5y32qew9z2t
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the war with russia could end sooner than some people think. "I think that we are closer to peace than we think," he told US broadcaster ABC News. He added that Ukraine could push russian President Vladimir pootin to end the conflict, but only if Kyiv was coming from a "strong position" - once again calling on his Western allies to strengthen the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian president is in the US this week to speak at the United Nations General Assembly and to present what he has called a "victory plan" to his Western allies, including US President Joe Biden. In a statement ahead of the visit, Zelensky said the plan included further weapons donations, diplomatic efforts to force Russia to agree to peace, and holding Moscow accountable for its full-scale invasion in 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7582l4015o
The victory plan was developed in the Office of the President, members of parliament from the presidential party "Servants of the People" and from the relevant committees did not participate in its development. The head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Foreign Policy and Interparliamentary Cooperation, "servant of the people" Oleksandr Merezhko, stated this on Radio Svoboda. According to him, the document was developed in the "secrecy mode", it is a document of a military-technical nature. Source: https://censor.net/ua/n3511514
In my opinion, this is a very strange position, given that according to the constitution of Ukraine it is a democratic country, but it is normal if we remember that in fact Ukraine has long since become a dictatorship of the Japanese medieval type, where the nominal ruler was the emperor, but the shogun actually ruled. It also seems that poor people there did not even have the right to their own name. And poor people in Ukraine now have no right to even know what awaits them.
The president of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, told the New York Times that Ukraine would have to be "realistic" about its prospects of recovering the areas in the east of the country which russia has managed to gain over the last 31 months of war. He added that the most likely outcome of the war was that a part of Ukrainian territory would remain under russian occupation for a number of years. A defeat of either Ukraine or russia "will simply not happen", Pavel told the Times, adding that the end of the conflict would be "somewhere in between". https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/world/europe/ukraine-war-goals-russia-czech-president.html
At the same time russian troops have made serious advances in the east and are closing in on Vuhledar - a city on the southern part of the Donbas front line that the russians have been trying to seize since the beginning of their full-scale invasion. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1036354-brygada-zsu-yaka-drugyj-rik-oboronyaye-vugledar-perebuvaye-na-mezhi-otochennya-cherez-vysnazhennya
My friend has been fighting there since the big invasion and I don't even know if he's still alive. I can't bring myself to call or write to those who I'm not sure will answer.
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President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine has an army of one million - we are talking about 880,000 soldiers. The head of state said this in an interview with the German TV channel ARD. https://youtu.be/NnH75tFS96o?si=xFaVsgFrIQ8rGu8k
"We have 880,000. We have a million-strong army. And at the same time, we have 30 million people now, specifically 30 million people are working, and maybe even a little more. I can't say the exact number," the president said.
Zelensky also added that today it is not known exactly how many people have left since the beginning of the full-scale war. According to him, this figure ranges from 6.5 to 7.5 million Ukrainians.
It is very surprising to hear such figures, because even last year the russian invasion and the emigration caused by it reduced the number of the working population of Ukraine in 2023 by 39.2% compared to 2021 - from 17.4 million to 12.5 million, and in 2024 - By 2032, it may decrease by 11.7 million, said former Minister of Economy, adviser to the head of the President's Office, president of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) Tymofiy Milovanov. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/926831.html
Currently, there are about 11.7 million Ukrainians who are economically active in Ukraine, of whom approximately 9.3 million are employed. Another 2.7 million are unemployed. Such data were made public by experts of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future (UIF) during the presentation of the Forecast of the Ukrainian economy for 2023-2024.
"According to our calculations, there are currently about 28.5 million people in Ukraine. But it is not the total number that is important, but the structure. Among all these 28.5 million, we have 16.8 million economically inactive population - pensioners, children. Some 11.7 million are economically active, but only approximately 9-9.3 million of them actually work. If you subtract from this number budget employees, then there are 6-7 million people who, in fact, are the "team" that carries the entire economy," said Yana Lavryk, an expert in economic programs of the UIF. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/3732011-v-ukraini-ekonomicno-aktivnimi-e-lise-blizko-117-miljona-ludej.html
In the draft state budget for 2025, the Ministry of Finance set out to attract only UAH 17 billion (400 million dollars) "net" (attraction minus repayment) from bonds of the domestic state loan, because it approached the limit of possibilities on the domestic debt market. Minister of Finance Serhii Marchenko announced this at a briefing, answering questions from Forbes. In the government project of the 2025 budget, 579 billion hryvnias of borrowing through bonds are laid. Repayment under this instrument is UAH 562 billion. https://forbes.ua/news/minfin-nablizivsya-do-granichnikh-mozhlivostey-iz-zaluchennya-ovdp-marchenko-24092024-23800
Meanwhile, a large-scale reconstruction is planned in one of Kyiv's parks, the cost of which will be more than 20 million hryvnias (476 thousand dollars). https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/311380-v-kieve-startuet-masshtabnaya-rekonstruktsiya-parka-natalka-za-20-mln-griven
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"No one is interested in this anymore, except for us?" the military are talking about demobilization, referring to the early release from military service of those soldiers who have been fighting on the front lines for more than 2.5 years. According to Ukrainian law, mobilized as well as contract workers cannot leave the army during martial law, even if their contracts have expired.
A significant part of the armed forces of Ukraine are volunteers who stood up for the defense of their own state in the first days of the full-scale war, as well as people who were forcibly mobilized during this period. As of the end of September 2024, they have already served almost 30 months. Some of them spent most of this time on the front lines.
"If there was a positive trend in the summer and it continued, then for the month of September the forecasted indicators are worse than those in the summer," an informed interlocutor in the parliament told the BBC. It turned out that the shortage of human resources in the army is greater than previously publicly voiced by the military command. Accordingly, even the increase in mobilization rates in the summer did not allow it to be covered. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4glxz9n463o
And this leads to two problems. The first is that it worsens mobilization, since no one wants to join the army anymore without a realistic prospect of discharge. And the second is that the number of deserters is increasing. One case recently became very widely discussed. One soldier made a public statement that he voluntarily left the army to draw attention to the absence of fixed terms of service under martial law and it was widely reported by the media. His history and media coverage cast doubt on the sincerity of this statement, but this does not deny the importance of the problem and its lack of a solution. Separate comments also appeared from other soldiers who understand him, but do not support him, because by his act he betrayed those who remained to serve and set a bad example for others. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/mobilizaciya-strok-sluzhbi-szch-hto-takiy-sergiy-gnyezdilov-yaka-problema-v-zsu-i-sut-skandalu-50452998.html
The state continues to accuse Ukrainians of their reluctance to fight, which makes it impossible to replace those who have been fighting for a long time. Although the truth is rather that, as military commanders say, they do not want to let go of experienced fighters.
A special place for meetings between lawyers and conscripts will appear in the Volyn mobilization center. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/311392-v-volynskom-ttsk-sozdadut-mesta-dlya-obscheniya-advokatov-s-voennoobyazannymi
Well, this is already progress. Now conscripts have almost the same rights as prisoners. Only those imprisoned have the right to appeal, waiting for its decision in a cell, not in a trench.
The government's initiative to mass-mail summonses to Ukrainian men who did not voluntarily appear at mobilization centers also caused mixed reactions. Someone is looking for corruption due to spending a lot of money, someone doubts the effectiveness of this measure, and someone thinks that it is just a desire to get money into the budget due to huge fines for non-appearance. The summons will be considered served even if no one receives it. The fact of sending will also be impossible to verify. But almost 2 million dollars have already been allocated to the budget for this. https://www.unian.ua/society/mobilizaciya-v-ukrajini-uryad-vidiliv-desyatki-milyoniv-na-rozsilku-povistok-poshtoyu-12767223.html.
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Today there was an air attack all night, including on Kyiv. First, drones flew, and closer to the morning there were also missiles, which were shot down quite loudly. Judging by the sounds, airplanes were also doing this. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/kiyiv-masshtabno-atakuvali-shahedami-kmva-1727325943.html
Apparently, there were no serious consequences. Also, the air raid sirens, during which public transport does not work, continued until lunchtime and I decided to work from home. I did not get enough sleep, the sky was overcast and I did not feel well today.
In the west of the country, it appears that a military airfield where F-16s are supposedly based has been attacked again.
https://unn.ua/news/na-khmelnychchyni-povidomyly-pro-vybukhy-na-tli-poperedzhen-ps-zsu-pro-kyndzhaly
russians have made certain modifications of guided aerial bombs, which can now fly to the center of Zaporizhya tens of kilometers from the front line. Now not only Kharkiv suffers from them. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/09/26/novyna/bezpeka/zsu-rozpovily-chomu-kaby-pochaly-dolitaty-centra-zaporizhzhya
Yesterday, air defenses for the first time destroyed the russian UAV "Shahed-136", equipped with Starlink satellite communications from SpaceX. And now we are talking about a very wide and powerful feedback channel with the drone, the possibility of transmitting information from it and changing the flight task at any distance. That is, the transformation of Shahed, first of all, into a reconnaissance tool. https://defence-ua.com/news/rf_vstanovila_na_shahed_136_starlink_ochevidno_tse_bulo_lishe_pitannja_chasu-16716.html
Western allies have almost nothing left in their stockpiles to hand over to Ukraine after more than two and a half years of fighting, the Minister of the Armed Forces of Great Britain has said. Before crucial talks on the war at the United Nations headquarters in New York, Luke Pollard said the focus needed to be on ramping up weapons production between the West and Ukraine as part of a longer-term strategy that would keep a reliable supply of equipment heading to the country.
Secretary of State for Defence John Geely, in turn, suggested that Ukraine also lacks military personnel it can send to the West for training. https://www.thetimes.com/article/6ebb2947-618c-4a71-bdf1-eae28f15079c
In Ukraine they joke that if you send someone to for training abroad now, these people will run away in full force.
Chief inspector of the Ministry of Defense Ihor Voronchenko criticized the level of training of new recruits at the Chief of Staff’s, he was fired the same day. Coincidence? https://babel.ua/texts/111008-golovniy-inspektor-minoboroni-igor-vorochenko-na-stavci-u-prezidenta-rozkritikuvav-riven-pidgotovki-novobranciv-togo-zh-dnya-yogo-zvilnili-spivpadinnya-poyasnyuyemo
Information also appeared that Ukraine has a directive regulating the mobilization of men aged 50 to 60, and such mobilization is possible only under a separate mobilization order of the General Staff of the Armed Forces. But no official documents were made public. https://enovosty.com/uk/news-ukr/news_society-ukr/full/v-ukraini-neoficijno-obmezhili-mobilizaciyu-cholovikiv-50-ale-ne-usix
At the same time, the Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Roman Kostenko, said that Ukraine may need to lower the conscription age in the event of the announcement of mobilization in russia. https://24tv.ua/znizhennya-mobilizatsiynogo-viku-ukrayini-kostenko-pripustiv_n2649622
It is believed that Zelensky avoided this in order not to lose his electorate.
Today I saw another piece of news that a 53-year-old local resident died after four days in the branch of the Mukachevo mobilization center in the city of Svalyava. The wife of the dead man claims that he was beaten in the premises of the assembly center. According to her, the man was unfit for military service. According to the mobilization center, the man fell ill during transportation to the training center, and he died in the hospital as a result of a natural disease — an ischemic heart attack. https://suspilne.media/uzhhorod/844371-na-zakarpatti-pisla-cotiroh-dniv-perebuvanna-v-tck-pomer-colovik-so-kaze-druzina-likari-ta-policia/
I discussed this with a colleague today, who believes that due to the complete secrecy and irresponsibility, the detained people are simply held in custody and beaten until they sign an agreement to serve as volunteers. Since they usually catch the old and sick who cannot run away, naturally not everyone survives this and some die. They also say that for a bribe they can release those detained, but I don’t know anyone who would do this and tell me.
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The teams of President Volodymyr Zelensky and US presidential candidate Donald Trump discussed a potential meeting between the two leaders at the Republican's estate in Florida. Trump said last week that he would likely meet with Zelensky during his visit to the United States. But Zelensky's visit to the arms factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania, where President Joe Biden was born and raised, changed the course of events.
The Speaker of the US House Mike Johnson has demanded that Ukraine fire its ambassador to Washington, as a feud between the Republican Party and Volodymyr Zelensky escalates. In a public letter, the top Republican said the visit was "designed to help Democrats" and claimed it amounted to "election interference". https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4899357-speaker-johnson-ukraine-zelensky/
The row has threatened to overshadow Zelensky's meeting with President Joe Biden on Thursday, during which he will present a "plan for victory" in his country's war with russia. Since his arrival to the US on Sunday, Zelensky has ramped up efforts to persuade the US and other allies to lend more support to Ukraine as it fends off russian advances. While details of his "victory" plan have been kept under wraps, the strategy is likely to contain pleas for further military and financial support, plus future security guarantees.
For several months, Volodymyr Zelensky has been promoting the Ukrainian plan as a basis for victory. However, U.S. and European leaders familiar with the plan's gist believe it does not offer a clear path to victory, especially given russia's current successes on the battlefield. https://news.online.ua/administraciia-baidena-ocinila-plan-peremogi-ukrayini-detali-885206/
But on Thursday, Biden announced that the US will send $7.9bn (£5.9bn) worth of military aid to Ukraine in a surge of assistance as his presidency nears its end.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80rkv0k4j8o
https://time.com/7023450/ukraine-effort-donald-trump/
In any case, Zelensky's diplomacy threatens the US support for Ukraine, no matter who wins the presidential election. Without the support of Congress, Harris will have little opportunity to do so, and if Trump wins, he will remember everything to Zelensky. However, the plan, according to which all responsibility is shifted to the allies, looks obviously unrealistic to implement, and I do not want to think that this was the purpose of its presentation in this form. However, apparently nothing can save the undoubtedly most outstanding actor of all time, who played the role of the president perfectly.
The Turkish leader noted that in the third year of the war in Ukraine, "we are still far from establishing a just and durable peace." "As the arms race accelerates, the field of diplomacy is gradually narrowing. We will continue to increase support for efforts to end the war through diplomacy and dialogue based on Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty," Erdogan said. https://kontrakty.ua/article/249164
russian President Vladimir pootin, who previously announced changes in the russian nuclear doctrine, spoke about the planned amendments. Moscow expands the list of reasons for retaliating. A "critical threat" to russia's sovereignty, even with conventional weapons, will be grounds for a nuclear response, the russian president said. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/czrm8vdd8d1o
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Zelensky’s campaign stop for Democrat candidates is widely recognized in the US, as being a strategic error, which could result in alienating 50% of the population to some degree. In my personal view, I wonder if he was just poorly advised, or does he see it as a gamble on a grand scale? Rhetorical question, as no one but Z knows the answer and I do not pretend to know the answer.
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“Never assume malice when incompetence will suffice” probably explains much about Zelenskyy’s tone-deaf visit.
Well, regardless, most voters of any party here have FAR more parochial concerns that motivate their choices. It’s not even October, and most mail in ballots won’t be distributed for at least a week or two, let alone in person voting, mostly on November 5. By then this will be largely forgotten.
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“Never assume malice when incompetence will suffice” probably explains much about Zelenskyy’s tone-deaf visit.
Well, regardless, most voters of any party here have FAR more parochial concerns that motivate their choices. It’s not even October, and most mail in ballots won’t be distributed for at least a week or two, let alone in person voting, mostly on November 5. By then this will be largely forgotten.
I tend to agree about incompetence being a sufficient explanation. It's hard to believe that most of Z's advisers would miss the pitfalls of his partisan campaigning, but perhaps he doesn't listen to them.
I should clarify that my concern was not that his actions would change the election results, but that, rather, they would embitter any elected candidates who he has worked against. I think he needs as many Senate votes in 2025, as he can muster, for example. We really don't want support of Ukraine to become a partisan issue.
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In my humble opinion, we continue to watch a carefully staged game of talented actors according to all the rules of soap operas. We do not know and will never know who really agreed with whom and about what, we can only watch the next episode of the series in the crowd of which people are really dying all over the world. I watch it as a participant in the crowd, and you as spectators. But as soon as they show an episode dedicated to Israel, I become a spectator. I am not a supporter of conspiracy theories, I am simply trying to apply logic to what is happening. Logic excludes idiots in such positions. However, we can easily see the director's sarcasm in the details.
Donald Trump has agreed to a last-minute meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky despite repeatedly criticising him on the US campaign trail. The former US president appears to have changed his mind after earlier reports from his campaign said a meeting between the two was extremely unlikely. The pair have endured a tumultuous relationship. Trump was impeached in 2019 over accusations that he pressured Zelensky to dig up damaging information on the Biden family. A rough transcript of the call revealed Trump had urged Zelensky to investigate Biden, as well as Biden's son. Since russian launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Trump has frequently repeated Moscow's talking points about the war. During September's presidential debate he sidestepped a question on whether he wanted Ukraine to emerge victorious in the conflict. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7810y11dyjo
“I learned a lot, but I think I haven’t changed from the standpoint that we both want to see this end and we both want to see a fair deal made,” Trump said of his conversation with Zelensky. https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-harris-presidential-election-09-27-24/index.html
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No doubt Trump finally agreed to meet in an effort to burnish his imagined stature as a fabulous deal maker, after first letting surrogates lambaste Zelenskyy for a couple of days.
In this case, as you remind us of the history, he has more than ample reason to dislike Ukraine and Zelenskyy in particular, and is famously vindictive. There is no chance IMO that he would act with interests of Ukraine or the West in top of mind, or even as an impartial arbitrator.
It was surreal and disturbing to hear Trump brag about his relationship with Putin while next to Zelenskyy.
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Many Ukrainians are used to think only Democrats are going to help us while Republicans would likely not. Especially Trump, according to his pretty unclear and somewhat disputable statements about Ukraine, appears unfriendly. So, Ukraine in fact supports Democrats with likely no clear understanding why we should to. Same time I believe Republicans did more for the democracy in the US and all around the world than Democrats. I'm not a politic expert and never pretended. I can only judge on anti-weapon hysteria that is widely supported by Democrats but opposed by Republicans, so I'd chose Republicans just to preserve the right of people to keep and bear arms. Ukrainian officials should make friends among both parties, Democrats and Republicans. For us it should not matter who will win.
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Many Ukrainians are used to think only Democrats are going to help us while Republicans would likely not. Especially Trump, according to his pretty unclear and somewhat disputable statements about Ukraine, appears unfriendly. So, Ukraine in fact supports Democrats with likely no clear understanding why we should to. Same time I believe Republicans did more for the democracy in the US and all around the world than Democrats. I'm not a politic expert and never pretended. I can only judge on anti-weapon hysteria that is widely supported by Democrats but opposed by Republicans, so I'd chose Republicans just to preserve the right of people to keep and bear arms. Ukrainian officials should make friends among both parties, Democrats and Republicans. For us it should not matter who will win.
I agree, it would be foolish not to maintain good relations with both. Both are needed for effective support in Congress, and besides attitudes can change.
Traditionally both parties have been supportive of America’s post WW2 superpower role in the world, and Atlantic and Pacific alliances, for our own interests which includes reasonable world stability. Of course there have always been obnoxiously loud but small minorities that didn’t - pacifist but worldly on the left, while well armed but isolationist on the right.
Over the last 25 years or so this has been changing, especially in the last 10-15. In my view the right has become far more isolationist, while the left has become only marginally more pacifist. These are naturally generalizations and specific instances can be quite different for various reasons. For example, Obama (Democrat) didn’t do anything effective when Putin started taking Ukrainian territory.
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The workload at work plus sleepless nights led to the fact that last night I had a severe headache and I realized that I would not be able to finish reading the financial analysis for one of the projects. Although I am a lawyer, my new position implies deep immersion and the need to understand the project as a whole. Fortunately, I cooperate with high-class professionals and this allows me to rapidly improve my own qualifications and expand my awareness in related areas - economics, accounting and finance. But for me it is also exciting and interesting, like for a child learning new toys. I again catch myself thinking that I not only get free knowledge for which people pay big money at universities and business schools, but also get a salary. I came to the conclusion that my knowledge in finance and economics has long exceeded that of my wife, although she is an economist by education. But when my blood pressure jumped again in the evening, I decided to stop and went to bed early, only to wake up at half past two from the sounds of shooting at drones.
I woke up this morning feeling hungover, even though I hadn't been drinking, and in the mirror I saw that I looked like Zelensky. This gave me extra motivation to kick myself in the ass, get on my bike and go for a ride while the weather allowed. It was still sunny and about +20C during the day. After the ride and shower I felt better, but still tired.
However, I finished the analysis in the morning and sent it back with comments. I can't fully rest if something remains unfinished. God gives me strength and opportunities every day and it's time to thank Him again for this!
Last week I got an email from Volodymyr UT5WAA saying he was talking to some guys from the UK and Canada who were learning Morse Code together and they had read my book and wanted to talk to me. I joined their zoom meeting on Thursday evening and we talked for an hour and a half. It was great and I hope to see them again. When Randy N1SP joined in the middle of the meeting I knew it all. They were members of the CW Academy where I had also taken a course last year.
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I really got a chuckle out of this! Glad to see that you're enjoying your work, learning, and earning!
"I woke up this morning feeling hungover, even though I hadn't been drinking, and in the mirror I saw that I looked like Zelensky. This gave me extra motivation to kick myself in the ass, get on my bike and go for a ride..."
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Thank you Braden!
Unfortunately, my personal achievements do not reflect the situation in the country as a whole.
The initiative of the European Commission to allocate to Ukraine a new loan from the European Union in the amount of 35 billion euros (almost $40 billion), which will be repaid at the expense of revenues from frozen Russian assets, was not supported by a number of key EU countries. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/us-eu-near-deal-on-50-billion-ukraine-aid-using-russian-assets
Switzerland supported the "peace initiative" proposed by China and Brazil regarding Ukraine, despite the fact that there is no mention of the UN Charter and no direct mention of territorial integrity in the document. https://www.blick.ch/politik/obwohl-verweis-auf-die-uno-charta-fehlt-schweiz-unterstuetzt-ukraine-initiative-von-china-und-brasilien-id20178433.html
I read a long and interesting interview with the head of the largest private arms manufacturer, who named almost all the problems due to which Ukraine does not produce more weapons needed by the military. And I am not surprised that all the problems except purely technical ones in the production of gunpowder are created by the state. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cy0lyzezd24o
Meanwhile, the Netherlands has officially announced that it has decommissioned its F-16 fighter jets, replacing them with F-35s, the Dutch Ministry of Defense said. https://twitter.com/DefensieMin/status/1839689145280500024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1839689145280500024%7Ctwgr%5Ef3964f4ad97e2ad39c74d280d039663381e241ad%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.eurointegration.com.ua%2Fnews%2F2024%2F09%2F28%2F7195093%2F
More than half of infantry recruits of the Armed Forces of Ukraine die or are injured in the first days, FT writes https://www.ft.com/content/b9396112-585a-4f7e-9628-13d500c99d93 These people are not highly motivated, psychologically and physically unprepared - and as a result die at an alarming rate. Ukrainian infantry suffers the most. Some soldiers simply leave their positions, allowing the enemy to capture more territory. Four commanders, a deputy commander and almost a dozen soldiers from four Ukrainian brigades in Donetsk region said that the recruits lacked basic combat skills and motivation.
High-ranking Ukrainian officials said that since May, Ukraine has been mobilizing 30,000 soldiers per month. Age is a key issue in the Armed Forces, as the average figure is 45 years. Of about 30 infantrymen in the unit, the deputy commander of the 72nd Brigade said, half were in their 40s, only five were under 30, and the rest were over 50. Infantry need to run fast and be strong enough to carry heavy weapons, which is hard to do when you're old.
In addition, the Ukrainian army is led by officers and generals who began their careers in Soviet times and "never took part in hostilities."
Instead, the mobilized convicts turned out to be good soldiers - they demonstrate self-sacrifice and the ability to adapt in the combat zone.
I am not surprised by this, because even authoritarian russia quickly abandoned forced mobilization due to its ineffectiveness. Apparently, fighting is all the russians know how to do.
There is a debate in society about why they don't mobilize young people aged 18-25, as all other countries usually do in case of war. Some believe that this is Zelensky's main electorate, which he is guarding before the elections. I am inclined to think that the main reason is the understanding of the authorities that, unlike docile elderly people, brought up in the Soviet Union and accustomed to feudal collective farms and the Soviet army, for young people who do not want to follow even an office work regime, service in the army will be unacceptable. The authorities did everything to limit the ravages of war to those who directly fight, so the rest of society has long since felt no connection to war and has no motivation to fight. In this, the situation is similar to 2014.
On the other hand, people's reaction to the loss of a father or brother is completely different than to the death of a son. Perhaps the answer to the question of why people from 18 to 25 are not drafted is somewhere in the middle.
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Today was a quiet night, I rested and it's only sad that I have a day off and great weather, but no opportunity to spend it with my family, for example, by going to the forest. And I don't know who is more to blame for this - the russians or my own authorities. It seems that people are increasingly getting used to this kind of life. Someone is saving money to buy the opportunity to leave the country, and most have simply adapted. Fortunately, Ukrainians are a very peace-loving people and even a large number of weapons did not lead to a desire to show superiority or solve problems with their help in everyday life.
Today I even spent the time with the radio and had not only a QSO with Colin G3ZAF and his neighbor Jeff G8XXJ, but also when trying to hear Dave KB9YYM, when I called on 28 MHz, I was answered from Indonesia and made QSO with Marselino YD1SHY and Theo YD1SEO.
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Today again drones were shot down all night and I read that in September the russians launched more than a thousand drones at Ukraine, not counting missiles, and there was not a single day without drones.
Western media headlines repeat each other:
As things stand, a truce would embolden pootin, weaken Ukraine and lead to further hostilities. The West needs a better plan. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-09-30/ukraine-cease-fire-will-benefit-putin-not-end-the-war
The war is going badly. Ukraine and its allies must change course.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/09/26/the-war-is-going-badly-ukraine-and-its-allies-must-change-course
But the more interesting rumors are that they are going to replace Budanov, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, with whom almost all successful operations in Russian and occupied territories are connected. In my opinion, the strategic choice of the development of the war was made when Zaluzhny was replaced by Syrsky. Instead of really effective strikes against russia, which Budanov could have done, the army was put in the hands of a general who implemented a war of a small Soviet army against a large Soviet army with a known result. Given the frank reluctance of the West to escalate, now all this is easy to explain and all previous actions add up to a picture of what we see today.
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Today they gave up Ugledar. By a strange coincidence, this was also preceded by the dismissal of the brigade commander, who held this small city at a strategic height for 2.5 years. I would not be surprised if this commander will also be persecuted like many others who fought too well.
However, coaches do not just replace players for no reason. The new head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiga during a trip to the USA discussed potential compromise solutions and was more pragmatic about the possibility of negotiations based on the principle of "land in exchange for security". "We are talking more openly about how it will end and what Ukraine will have to give up in order to get a permanent peace agreement," said a diplomat who was present in New York. According to him, even half a year ago such conversations were taboo. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cvglv99xkero
The government also replaced three deputy Ministers of Defense.
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-kabmin-zastupnyky-zvilniv-pryznachyv/33142125.html
Against the background of the rapid escalation in the Middle East and the shelling of Israel by Iran, Ukraine's position looks deplorable.
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Sadly, I agree that other conflicts such as Iran/Israel are probably going to steal headlines and western resources from Ukraine for the foreseeable future, and so I also reluctantly concede to the likelihood of land for peace. I only hope that any peace deal has some ironclad western military commitment in it, to prevent future Russian land-grabs.
Without those guarantees, I can't imagine why anyone would invest their life's efforts into Ukraine, never knowing when Russia is going to turn it into rubble again. If the west hopes to keep Ukraine from becoming depopulated, they'd better make military protection of whatever remains of Ukraine a non-negotiable priority. And of course, prevent ethnic Russians from emigrating to Ukraine, ever again.
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Yesterday it started raining and together with the workload it has meant that I am again forced to lower my blood pressure with tablets. I am hoping to have a rest this weekend and recover for next week. I got home on Friday after several meetings and a hard day after 9pm. I could only eat and go to bed, but HR sent a lawyer candidate's resume at 11:08pm. On the one hand we do need more people, but we live in the same country and I can't explain it away as a time difference and a simple mistake. It could have waited until Monday. I responded rudely and apologized this morning. My head was still hurting this morning and it only got better after I talked to Colin for over an hour and then sat in front of the radio, completely switched off.
Drone attacks and the noise from air defenses almost every night make things worse. https://vechirniy.kyiv.ua/news/103408/
Today Colin was visiting his son, where he is making an antenna so that they can communicate by radio if necessary. This again reminded me that I have not seen my son for almost three years. It is even more disgusting to see the latest news about the arrest of those who receive millions of dollars in bribes to exempt healthy people from conscription and send sick people who refuse to pay to the army. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/czxgp858rv9o One can only imagine how many more of these are left and that in fact the reason for the arrest of these is not the zeal of law enforcement agencies, but the greed of some corrupt officials who do not share with the leadership. And this again strengthened my mind that I will not give these assholes a penny.
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Zelensky raises his tone against the West. Ukraine wants to "convince" its Western allies to "shoot down the russian missiles and drones" that are targeting it, despite their reluctance, declared President Volodymyr Zelensky while receiving the new NATO chief in Kyiv. https://www.lexpress.fr/monde/guerre-en-ukraine-zelensky-hausse-le-ton-face-aux-occidentaux-HTCLATUYWJBB3K7NT7VRZ5G7FU/
NATO will not intercept missiles and drones over Ukraine the way it does over Israel, because these are "two very different landscapes and battlefields" and that would "draw us into a war," Pentagon deputy spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said at a briefing. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3926224/deputy-pentagon-press-secretary-sabrina-singh-holds-a-press-briefing/
"Ukraine is moving towards what could be the darkest moment of the conflict. It is being defeated on the battlefield in the east of the country, and russian troops are advancing relentlessly, albeit with huge losses in people and equipment," writes The Financial Times. Conscription tactics get dirty as war-weary Ukrainians defy draft. Under pressure to mobilise 200,000 extra soldiers, Ukraine army recruiters are resorting to checkpoints, bundling men off the street and ignoring exemptions. https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/conscription-tactics-get-dirty-as-war-weary-ukrainians-defy-draft-8zb26rt2p
Allies begin new phase of pressure on Ukraine to negotiate end of war. The diminishing support for Zelensky on his trip to the US confirms the change of tone among his partners in favour of negotiations with russia, writes the Spanish El País. During the last visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the USA, support from partners became noticeably weaker. Although Ukraine will continue to receive financial assistance from Washington, the United States has already not given permission to use long-range missiles for strikes on russian territory.
According to El País, russian offensive operations in Donbas, which have been ongoing since the summer, cannot be stopped by Ukrainian forces. To resolve this situation, Ukraine will need significantly more military aid than it has received so far. However, against this background, the attention of Western countries is diverted to other international crises, in particular the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran.https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-10-04/los-aliados-inician-una-nueva-fase-de-presion-sobre-ucrania-para-negociar-el-final-de-la-guerra.html
The Financial Times also wrote about possible security guarantees for Ukraine in exchange for the occupied territories. https://www.ft.com/content/2bb20587-9680-40f0-ac2d-5e7312486c75
The President's Office said that this is a delusion. Such conversations do not take place. It was noted that no one in the West officially and clearly offered our state such security guarantees that would definitely prevent the expansion or recurrence of the war. The Office of the President also emphasized that Ukraine does not trade sovereignty and territories. https://informator.ua/uk/zdacha-teritoriy-v-obmin-na-mir-mzs-ukrajini-zvinuvatilo-financial-times-u-brehni
Well, from previous experience, everything that the authorities denied was confirmed over time. The denial of the attack of russia 2022 is especially vividly remembered.
Throughout the year, Ukraine has lost a series of cities, towns and villages in its eastern Donbas region to russia, typically withdrawing its troops after hard-fought battles that sometimes lasted for months. The idea is to use rope-a-dope tactics, letting russian forces pound away until they have exhausted themselves. It’s far from clear if the Ukrainian strategy will succeed. Ukraine ultimately hopes that russia’s mounting losses will make the war unsustainable for the Kremlin before it becomes so for Kyiv. “This is the most important thing — to exhaust the enemy,” said President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.
But how realistic is this strategy? President pootin of russia has put his country’s economy on war footing and has shown no sign that he is prepared to quit the fight. And the russian people seem steadfast in their support of the war effort. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/05/world/europe/ukraine-donbas-strategy-russia-war.html
But it should not be forgotten that the Verkhovna Rada, at an extraordinary meeting on September 8, 2021, did not support the appeal to the US Congress to grant Ukraine the bilateral status of the main ally of the US outside NATO (MNNA). The purpose and task of adopting the resolution is, in accordance with international legal guarantees, to engage the mechanisms of strategic security guarantees to ensure the territorial integrity of the state and receive appropriate international military assistance. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-rada-golosuvannya-za-mnna/31449924.html
So, before once again accusing the West of unwillingness to participate in stopping the war, it is necessary to remember how the Ukrainian authorities did not prevent it.
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Zelensky should know, without asking, that the west is not going to shoot down missiles, Iron-dome style: Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, do not have a nuclear arsenal and the means to deliver it, Russia does. That Zelensky even asks this question gives him away as either being desperate or naive. I suspect the former.
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I think I wrote about this a year ago. Zelensky has a very simple position - the West should provide weapons and money, and the Ukrainians should fight. If they stop doing this, then he has the opportunity to place the blame and responsibility for the defeat on them. As we can see, this simple strategy allowed him to remain president even after his powers had long since ended.
However, we do not know about his (and those who stand behind him) their real intentions. I tend to judge by the result. The result is obvious.
Some Polish politicians again raised the issue of exhuming the bodies of Poles who died during the Volyn tragedy. The Minister of National Defense of Poland, Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh, stated that without solving the issue of the Volyn tragedy, Ukraine will not be able to join the European Union. Meanwhile, President Andrzej Duda criticized such statements, which, in his opinion, "go in the direction of Vladimir pootin's politics."
During the Second World War, under the conditions of German occupation, several partisan movements were active on the territory of Ukraine. These, in particular, were units of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UIA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army) and the Polish Home Army https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Army. They mostly fought in Volyn region.
At the same time, both sides carried out mutual ethnic cleansing, justifying it as revenge for the repressions of the past years and the current murders. According to the Institute of History of Ukraine, this was one of the bloodiest episodes of the Ukrainian-Polish conflict during the Second World War.
According to Polish estimates, at least 35,000 people died during this tragedy on the Polish side, of which 18,000 were identified, and up to several thousand people died on the Ukrainian side. At the same time, according to the Ukrainian Catholic University project, from 9 to 10 thousand people died on the Ukrainian side. https://hromadske.ua/suspilstvo/232341-ukrayinskyy-instytut-natspamiati-ne-otrymuvav-vid-polshchi-ofitsiynykh-zvernen-shchodo-ekshumatsiyi-zertv-volynskoyi-trahediyi?traffic_source=ukr.net
My grandfather said that only because he was warned that the UIA fighters wanted to kill him, he escaped and avoided death.
Until now, the Ukrainian authorities have not expressed a clear position on this issue, and many people do not understand what the problem is in allowing the Poles to take the bodies of their dead. Some assume that there is a threat that the Poles will later accuse Ukraine of genocide and demand large reparations.
I came across an interesting opinion of one of Ukraine's best bankers, Serhiy Tihipko, regarding the deficit of the state budget of Ukraine this year in the amount of 12 billion dollars, due to which the Verkhovna Rada plans to significantly increase taxes by 1.4 billion dollars in the current year and 3.2 billion dollars in the next. He asks how it was possible to "lose" these huge numbers, despite the fact that the planned indicators of the 2024 budget were exceeded (according to the Ministry of Finance, in eight months, taxpayers filled the budget with an overperformance of $1.8 billion). https://forbes.ua/money/derzhava-shcho-postiyno-zminyue-pravila-gri-nenadiyniy-partner-sergiy-tigipko-pro-sim-rizikiv-pidnyattya-podatkiv-pid-chas-viyni-02102024-23965
I don't understand how even the planned revenues of 1.4 billion dollars in the current year and 3.2 billion dollars in the next year compensate for the deficit of 12 billion dollars already this year? In any case, the possible short-term effect carries the following strategic risks:
- Acceleration of inflationary processes as a result of excessive tax pressure, as businesses will try to offset their costs by raising the prices of services and goods. In addition, an almost simultaneous increase in taxes and tariffs can cause a sharp rise in prices, which will primarily affect the most vulnerable sections of the population.
- Deterioration of the investment climate and increasing mistrust of the decision-making centers and economic policy of the state.
- Further darkening of the economy and growth of capital outflow.
- Excessive fiscal pressure aimed at the most transparent sector - the financial sector - will cause a drop in its competitiveness and encourage long-forgotten gray tax avoidance schemes.
- The decision to increase taxes, including an increase in the military levy from 1.5% to 5%, will hurt deposits and slow down their withdrawals. The depositor will have to pay 23% of taxes to the budget from the interest earned on deposits. And this is on funds that have already been taxed.
- Decrease in the investment potential of the financial sector.
- Unpredictability of economic policy destroys business planning processes.
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It's been raining for the third day, drones again at night and supersonic missiles added in the morning. Fortunately, there are no significant damages or casualties in Kyiv. I didn't get enough sleep, but it was quiet at work today, so overall it can be considered a good day.
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Zelensky should know, without asking, that the west is not going to shoot down missiles, Iron-dome style: Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, do not have a nuclear arsenal and the means to deliver it, Russia does. That Zelensky even asks this question gives him away as either being desperate or naive. I suspect the former.
Yep.
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I don't understand the information about Polish/Ukrainian bodies and what the repercussions of that still are, in the current day. How sad it is that the history of the world has only major wars, battles, and related atrocities as its milestones. What a terrible reflection of the human race.
I also never realized until a couple of years ago how Ukraine being the natural footpath between Eastern and Western Europe has made it a place of perpetual conflict.
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I don't understand the information about Polish/Ukrainian bodies and what the repercussions of that still are, in the current day. How sad it is that the history of the world has only major wars, battles, and related atrocities as its milestones. What a terrible reflection of the human race.
I also never realized until a couple of years ago how Ukraine being the natural footpath between Eastern and Western Europe has made it a place of perpetual conflict.
I agree. But why did Poland and Turkey, which were in the same situation, manage to preserve their states?
Probably because Poles don't elect comedians as presidents, and their government makes great efforts to purchase weapons and strengthen their armed forces, understanding that enemies don't attack those who are ready to defend their country, and not steal state money and deceive their people.
In addition to already existing weapons and its own production of weapons, Poland is buying from the USA 96 AH-64E Apache helicopters, one of the best in the world in its class, a huge batch of 486 HIMARS systems, which have shown high efficiency in the war in Ukraine, 366 M1A2 tanks Abrams, 250 of which are the latest SEPv3 modification, 32 fifth-generation F-35A fighters, two batteries of Patriot air defense systems and an air defense control system.
Another major supplier of weapons to Poland is South Korea. Warsaw concluded framework agreements with Seoul on the purchase of 648 K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers and 980 K2 Black Panther tanks. Some of these systems will be produced in Poland.
Likewise, the Poles bought 48 FA-50 combat training aircraft in the Republic of Korea.
Poland also purchased three frigates from Great Britain.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cgmg40yvy49o
However, I can't shake the feeling that everything in Ukraine is coming to an end. The last warm days have come and I don’t want to think about the fact that energy problems will soon start again. The majority of people are apathetic and indifferent, and even the threat of a blackout in winter seems abstract. If you can't do anything, you simply stop reacting to it. In addition, thanks to the government's policies and Western support, for most of the population, war is something that does not concern them personally. Everyone knows people who fight and die, but this has also become commonplace. The human psyche is very flexible.
It turned out that I often don't want to go to the office and I don't need personal communication with other people. Sometimes I remember my hamster, but I don't want to get a new one. It's too hard when they die so quickly. My children have become something virtual for me, as I probably am for them. My son is going to live separately. Apparently his salary and stipend already allow him to do this. He doesn't ask me for anything. And only my wife tries to come once every two or three months. If it weren't for Kate, she would have returned long ago.
From time to time I hear about another business moving its production and people outside of Ukraine. Even my company is making every effort to develop its business abroad. But the authorities decided to raise taxes even more and passed a controversial law, which, according to business, will do more harm than good. However, if there had been no help from the West, the authorities would have finished off Ukraine faster than the russians.
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The rest of the news does not add optimism (I ignore the news about which drones or missiles hit the next weapons depots/airports because I don’t see that this will have any impact on the situation at the front).
The Council of the EU reached an agreement on providing Ukraine with a package of macro-financial assistance in the amount of up to 35 billion euros, which will be a component of a loan from the G7, for which the profits from the frozen assets of the russian federation will be used.
The Council of the EU must approve the decision by written procedure after the European Parliament adopts the text in the first reading. The decision will then enter into force the day after its publication in the Official Journal of the EU. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/10/9/7195912/
But Hungary will hold up a final deal on a $50 billion G7 loan to Ukraine until after the U.S. presidential election by delaying its decision on the timing of the renewal of EU sanctions against russia, Hungary's finance minister said. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-hold-up-g7-loan-ukraine-until-after-us-election-2024-10-08/
The second Peace Summit for Ukraine, to which russia was going to be invited, will not take place in November as planned, said Daria Zarivna, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine. https://mind.ua/news/20279918-ukrayina-vidmovilasya-vid-ideyi-provesti-drugij-samit-miru-u-listopadi
US President Joe Biden and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken canceled a visit to Germany during which they were supposed to participate in a meeting of the Ramstein Contact Group due to Hurricane Milton. https://censor.net/ua/n3513925
The United States will face "dangerous consequences" if it presses on with growing military aid to Ukraine rather than backing a proposed russian settlement that would see Moscow take over swathes of territory, the rassian top diplomat Lavrov said in exclusive responses to Newsweek questions. https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-russias-lavrov-warns-dangerous-consequences-us-ukraine-1964468
As we can see, russia has already achieved its main victory - its representatives have returned to the information space, it is taken into account again, it is feared and respected again, it has regained its status as a superpower, with an eye on China, of course.
Many are thinking about the unacceptability of the ceasefire due to fears that russia will use it in its interests. https://www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan/2024/10/09/moscows-hidden-plans-for-exploiting-a-ceasefire-with-ukraine/
But in return, they do not offer anything in the interests of Ukraine. Continue this war at the cost of Ukrainian lives and territories? So the dead do not need territories or Ukraine. They don't need anything at all. What is the point of going to fight and for what to a soldier who knows that he will not return and does not see a future for his children? In the best case, they will grow up and also go to die like him?
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the battlefield situation 'creates opportunity' to take steps to end the war in Ukraine no later than 2025. "In October, November and December we have chance to move things toward peace and lasting stability. The situation on the battlefield creates an opportunity to make this choice – choice for decisive action to end the war no later than in 2025," he told the Ukraine-South East Europe summit in Dubrovnik. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-battlefield-situation-creates-opportunity-bring-an-end-war-2025-2024-10-09/
No one knows what Zelensky meant, but the Cabinet of Ministers suspended the reservation of employees of Ukrainian enterprises until November 15. The authorities want to review the list of enterprises and organizations that have the right to reservation. https://glavred.net/ukraine/v-ukraine-ostanovili-bronirovanie-rabotnikov-chto-izvestno-o-reshenii-kabmina-10603859.html
"Ukrainian Pravda" ("Ukrainian Truth"), one of the leading Ukrainian online media, declares about the long-term and systematic pressure that the Office of the President exerts on the editors and individual journalists of the publication. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1019507.html
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Yesterday I bought medicine for the next month, and today I feel better. It got colder to +10C, but taking advantage of the lack of precipitation, I rode my bike in the morning. Good propagation on 28 MHz gave the opportunity to have a good time on the air. Something tells me that my skills in receiving and transmitting Morse code need to be kept in good condition.
Little news from the front and even less good. Predictably, the fewer weapons supplies from the West, the greater the efforts of the authorities aimed at obtaining the resource that is available to them - people.
Mobilization teams conducted raids near the Kyiv Sports Palace, where the Okean Elsa concert was held, as well as in clubs and restaurants in a number of other Ukrainian cities. The men's documents were checked, some of them were detained. The reaction to these raids mostly depends on whether someone is subject to mobilization or not. Those who are not in danger of joining the army, of course, support the mobilization, and those who risk getting a military ticket in one go, do not rush to the front.
The surrealism of what was happening emphasizes the fact that the band's frontman Svyatoslav Vakarchuk is an active military serviceman - after the start of the full-scale invasion of russia into Ukraine, he signed a contract with the Armed Forces. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cevypk2gjw4o
That is, an active military serviceman lives like an ordinary person and gives concerts instead of fighting. According to the law, he should have been arrested for voluntarily leaving the military unit. That is, laws in Ukraine are only for the poor.
Meanwhile, the russian army launched an offensive in the Kursk region, part of which was captured by Ukrainian troops in August. On October 10, there were reports of a significant advance of russian troops and the threat of encirclement of some parts of the Armed Forces. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c8rd8ez4r86o There is very little information, but the fact that no one reports on the successes of the Ukrainian army allows us to draw certain conclusions.
Deputy Minister of Health and Chief Sanitary Doctor of Ukraine Ihor Kuzin gave an interview in which he reported on another reform of medical commissions, where corruption is the biggest in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cz9p25x4jp1o It is these commissions that decide whether to recognize a healthy person as unfit for military service, or to send a sick person to fight. Periodically, officials of these commissions are detained with huge sums of millions of US dollars, but it is clear that this is only the tip of the iceberg and no one will destroy the system that brings in billions.
During a speech in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Minister of Education Oksen Lisovy drew attention to a disturbing trend: more and more 10-11 graders, particularly boys, are leaving the country. https://nenka.info/uchni-10-11-klasiv-osoblyvo-hlopczi-aktyvno-vyyizhdzhayut-za-kordon/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=uchni-10-11-klasiv-osoblyvo-hlopczi-aktyvno-vyyizhdzhayut-za-kordon They are trying to solve this problem and I am sure that the solution will be to ban leaving from an early age. This can also expand the circle of persons from whom bribes can be taken for permission to leave Ukraine.
Ukraine’s outgunned and outmanned army had one major advantage over its enemy: internet through Starlink terminals. Now the russians have it, too. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/12/starlink-russia-ukraine-elon-musk/
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It's getting colder quickly and the first frosts and power outages are expected soon.
Ukraine is preparing for massive strikes by russian aggressors with the beginning of the autumn-winter period, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksandr Lytvynenko said. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1020602.html
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal talked about Ukraine's preparation for the winter and heating season - the third in the conditions of a full-scale war.
"Today, more than 99% of residential buildings are ready for the start of the heating season. The number of schools, kindergartens and hospitals ready for winter is also approaching 100%. More than 18,000 boiler houses and 4,800 central heating points are at the stage of being ready for supply warmth," Shmyhal said during the government meeting.
As for the accumulation of resources, according to the Prime Minister, there are currently 12.2 billion cubic meters of gas in storage, as well as 3.1 million tons of coal in warehouses, which is enough to get through the winter. This heating season, like the last one, is planned to run on gas produced in Ukraine.
"All 9 NPP power units controlled by Ukraine are currently working. They will provide the main volume of electricity generation in the heating season," the head of government said. https://www.blackseanews.net/read/223126
Top energy officials have fallen and key energy policy decisions have been delayed because of political calculations, lawmakers and experts say, costing Ukraine valuable time in preparing for winter. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/world/europe/ukraine-energy-crisis-russia.html
The energy community has warned National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities (NCSREPU) that if the Ministry of Energy does not review its order establishing control over Ukrenergo, and if new supervisory board members are not elected for the company by December 9, Ukrenergo may lose its independent system operator (ISO) certificate. This is stated in the letter of the Director of Energy Community Artur Lorkovsky to the head of the NCSREPU Yury Vlasenko https://forbes.ua/news/ukrenergo-mozhe-vtratiti-evropeysku-sertifikatsiyu-energetichne-spivtovaristvo-zaklikalo-minenergo-vidmovitisya-vid-kontrolyu-nad-kompanieyu-14102024-24170
But after the letter became public, Energy Community issued a retraction: The certification of Ukrenergo as an independent Transmission System Operator (TSO) began well before the war, with the goal of aligning its governance with EU standards. Claims that this process will affect Ukraine’s ability to import electricity from the EU during winter are misleading. Ukraine’s energy imports are crucial for ensuring reliable energy supply, particularly during the cold season when access to electricity is essential for basic services and public well-being.
We regret that an internal letter from the Energy Community Secretariat, addressed to the National Commission for Regulation of Electricity and Utilities Markets (NEURC), has been misused to propagate these claims.
Our focus remains on supporting Ukraine’s energy resilience through assistance linked to practical measures, including increasing electricity imports and repairing infrastructure. https://www.energy-community.org/news/Energy-Community-News/2024/10/15.html
The head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Tax and Customs Policy, Danylo Hetmantsev, believes that half of the economy is in the shadows, but there are industries, such as trade, where 60-70% are. https://agroportal.ua/news/finansy/getmancev-polovina-ekonomiki-ukrajini-znahoditsya-u-tini
But the main reason for this is the state itself and its tax policy. For example, last week parliament passed legislation that would establish a guaranteed tax liability for distilleries based on their capacity rather than how much alcohol they produce. The same approach to other business. It doesn't matter how much you earned, the most important thing is how much you should pay in taxes according to the authorities.
But despite this, the number of expensive cars in Kyiv is increasing every day. For example, the exclusive Ferrari 296 GTB hybrid supercar, the price of which starts at 300,000 euros, was recently involved in an accident. https://topgir.com.ua/v-ukra%d1%97ni-dtp-ferrari-296-gtb-video/
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Evacuation of the population is carried out not only in Donetsk, but also in Kharkiv regions. https://informator.ua/uk/u-kup-yansku-rizko-pogirshilas-situaciya-v-misti-ogolosili-primusovu-evakuaciyu-vsih-civilnih
Citizens of the DPRK are part of separate units of the russian Armed Forces and their number is about 3,000 people, Ukrainian intelligence sources confirmed. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3916460-u-rozvidci-pidtverdili-so-rosia-zalucila-do-vijni-proti-ukraini-vijskovih-iz-kndr-dzerelo.html
Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg admitted that the Alliance actually facilitated russia's invasion of Ukraine by its indecision and failure to provide timely and significant military support to Ukraine. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/die-fehlende-militaerische-unterstuetzung-machte-russland-die-invasion-leichter-a-9621b980-b1b1-4819-8901-0ca48a496681#ref=rss
Europe is beginning to change its approach to supporting Ukraine. Since the EU is unable to supply all the necessary weapons and ammunition, the bloc is turning to investments in the military industry of our country. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/13/ukraine-defense-industry-denmark/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
France will fall short of its pledge to donate up to €3 billion in military aid to Ukraine this year and is only on track for "above €2 billion," Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu said. https://www.politico.eu/article/france-miss-3-billion-mark-ukraine-aid-pledge-sebastien-lecornu-security-deal/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social
Czechia along with Hungary and Slovakia have exploited their derogation from the EU ban on the import of russian oil to maintain and even increase the purchase of russian crude since the russian invasion of Ukraine. The Czech Republic has spent over EUR 7 billion on Russian oil and gas — more than five times the EUR 1.29 billion it has provided in aid to Ukraine. Czechia’s oil imports have resulted in over EUR 2.3 billion in tax revenues for the Kremlin since the start of the invasion. https://csd.eu/publications/publication/tapping-the-loophole/
In the first half of 2024, 7.3 billion crowns ($323 million) were spent on aid payments to refugees, while the income was 11.7 billion crowns ($517 million). The treasury was replenished by 4.4 billion crowns ($195 million) from insurance and taxes paid to refugees.
"Refugees from Ukraine have long been giving our budget much more than we spend on aid to our compatriots. They are an asset for us, not a burden," the Ministry of Labour and Social Security of the Czech Republic says. https://www.facebook.com/mpsvcz/posts/pfbid02Z2DUmQ5ZD2RKDW2xwbZ75NT1JFvWatUHfD7pbKjZxq6sGsiPZyNokGRWuKd2DmQvl
The German government no longer plans to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with heavy equipment. This was reported in Bild, referring to the documents of the Ministry of Defense of Germany. According to media estimates, almost 300 Leopard 2 tanks, as well as BMPs, armored personnel carriers and howitzers "in an unknown quantity" remained in Germany's warehouses. Ukraine will receive only those volumes of equipment that were already declared before the transfer, in particular 18 units of Leopard 2. https://t.me/BILD_Russian/19284
Everything in this message is beautiful and I don't even know how to comment on it.
American politicians from both parties are putting pressure on the President of Ukraine, Zelensky, on the question of why there is no mobilization of those aged 18 to 25 in Ukraine, Serhiy Leshchenko, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, wrote in a telegram. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-leshchenko-mobilizatsiya-18-rokiv/33159760.html
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The US will not deploy the THAAD medium-range missile interception system in Europe for Ukraine, — the Pentagon...
The statement says that THAAD will not be installed in Europe to support Ukraine, but it may be deployed for Israel.
According to the press secretary of the US Ministry of Defense, the wars in Ukraine and Israel differ in their nature, which affects the decisions of the US.
“The tough answer that Ukrainians may not like to hear but is unfortunately true is that we can take the risk of shooting down Iranian missiles over Israel without triggering direct war with Tehran that could lead to nuclear war,” a senior U.S. Senate aide who works on Ukraine policy told POLITICO. “There’s a lot more risk in trying that with russia.” https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-bridle-no-holds-barred-us-support-israel/
I think it's just a trick. Patriots and other Western air defense systems have been shooting down russian missiles over Ukraine and even russian planes over russia for a long time now and it hasn't led to an escalation.
Some were quick to conclude that the life of a Ukrainian doesn’t worth that of a Israeli. But to be fair, Ukrainians and Israelis behave differently.
50 prosecutors of Khmelnytskyi region, led by the regional prosecutor, covering the corruption scheme of Tetyana Krupa, a member of the pro-presidential party, in the medical commission and the Pension Fund, were issued a fake disability.
On October 5, the detention of Tetyana Krupa, a deputy of the Servant of the People party, the chief doctor of the Khmelnytskyi medical and social commission, who issued mass disability certificates for bribes, and her son Oleksandr Krupa, the head of the Pension Fund of the Khmelnytsky region, who were kept in cash at home and abroad in Austria , Poland, Turkey and Spain more than 10 million dollars, and own three dozen houses in Ukraine and Europe, raised the main question - so who allowed Tatyana Krupa to act in one position continuously for 16 years? https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/posts/pfbid0qzmF4dzsWuX8Dx8GsYwz5fi8eLCJkexgrRRGhBWAX3s7XMxCivsUhoii2dpgeNcQl
On the other hand, even the former commander-in-chief Zaluzhny very suspiciously resigned from the army according to the conclusion of a similar medical committee, and it is no secret that this is a mass phenomenon for those who have money or friends in power.
I have never heard of anyone being beaten and forced to join the army in Israel at a time when powerful and rich people are exempted from service for bribes or are in the military, but have never actually been to the front.
However, I also have not heard anything about Israel prohibiting men from leaving the country because there is a war going on.
The Prosecutor General's Office has registered almost 60,000 criminal proceedings for voluntarily leaving a military unit and about 30,000 for desertion since the beginning of 2022. In January-September 2024, almost four times more desertions were registered than in the same period last year. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/10/16/7479890/
Although these are only officially registered cases. I heard that there are cases when the commander does not report about the deserter, and receives his money. But this can only be by their mutual consent.
Mobilization centers believe that raids in public places contribute to raising public awareness and mobilization and have increased the number of volunteers. https://ua.korrespondent.net/ukraine/4723954-u-ttsk-vidznachyly-zbilshennia-dobrovoltsiv-zavdiaky-reidam
Yes, the Internet is full of videos of beaten "volunteers" who pass the medical commission in half an hour and go to the barracks the next day, and die at the front a month later.
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Therefore, it is not surprising that the second wave of emigration from Ukraine began, not because of the danger of hostilities, but because people do not see a future in this country, neither for themselves nor for their children. A significant part of the new migrants are internally displaced people who lost their homes and jobs in the occupied cities, or those on the front line, and could not find them in the controlled territories. This leads to an outflow of skilled labor, especially engineers and white-collar workers - people with high qualifications and knowledge of the English language. Banks point to another aspect of the problem - a decrease in the number of those who need banking services. The number of Ukrainians who need banking services has already decreased from 18 to 13 million, and in the latest forecasts, they are already at the level of 11 million. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c93px84133jo
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has presented MPs with a long-awaited "victory plan" that aims to strengthen his country's position enough to end the war with russia. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0z8gg5v14o
There are already many jokes about the plan essentially consisting of three points: Ukraine should be accepted into NATO, Ukraine should be given weapons and allowed to strike russia, Ukraine should be given money. The plan also has secret appendices. If the West does not do this, it will be blamed for Ukraine's defeat.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has stressed his willingness to speak with russian President Vladimir pootin about a fair peace in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also stated that there should be another peace conference, also with the participation of the russian president, said the SPD politician in Berlin in a government statement on the upcoming EU summit in Brussels. "That is why it is also right that, if asked, we will also speak to the russian president, we say: Yes, that is also the case." https://rp-online.de/politik/deutschland/scholz-betont-bereitschaft-zu-gespraech-mit-putin_aid-120153029
Attending a session of the parliamentary European affairs committee on Wednesday before departing for a European Council meeting later this week, Prime Minister Robert Fico (Smer-SD) opined that the end of the war in Ukraine is coming soon. "The probability of ending the war in Ukraine in a short time is very high," said the prime minister, remarking that he expects the European Council meeting to indicate when that could be the case, "as the topic of inviting Ukraine to NATO is suddenly being brought up". In his opinion, this invitation wouldn't be "free of charge". https://www.tasr.sk/tasr-clanok/TASR:2024101600000186
Against this background, Australia's decision to transfer tanks to Ukraine appears unexpected. Dozens of soon-to-be-retired Australian Abrams tanks will be sent to Ukraine under a $245 million military support package to bolster the war-torn country's fight against russia's invasion. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-16/ukraine-to-receive-aging-australian-abrams-tanks/104480368
Against this backdrop, the only thing that remains intriguing to me is which president exactly and with what will congratulate Ukrainians on the New Year 2025.
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The air defense shot down drones all night, so I was very sleepy during the day and only the cold invigorated me. Many people started getting sick.
Seva moved to live separately - closer to the university and work. In Ukraine, this would have been impossible - to rent an apartment and live separately only on a stipend and income from part-time work.
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Every night drones fly and air defense shoots them down and this night I woke up several times again. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/nichniy-obstril-ukrajini-sili-ppo-znishchili-31-shahed-raketi-zbiti-ne-vdalosya-50459902.html
The authorities invented a new term for drones that failed to shoot down - they now call them "locationally lost".
The temperature at night drops to +2C and during the day no more than +10C in the sun. My head has been hurting since the morning and I hope I haven't caught a cold. While there is no rain, I continue to ride my bicycle. It is a good way to warm up, but today it was quite difficult. Again I managed to make several QSO - with Colin G3ZAF and his friends Andy M0CFO and Stuart M0ABT, who was G0EDS - Club call for Eastbourne District Scouts. Propagation at 28 MHz is back.
Maryna is going to come next week, but there are some difficulties with the tickets. The dentist and ophthalmologist are waiting for us )
The whole country is wondering when russia will start hitting the energy sector again and blackouts will return. Residents of a number of frontline cities have already been warned that there will be no heating in them. But in general, everyone is waiting for who will win the US elections.
The imminent US presidential election hung over a meeting of NATO defense chiefs this week, as NATO allies braced for US support for Ukraine to shrink over the next year if Donald Trump wins even as Iran, North Korea and China step up their military aid to russia.
In a closed-door meeting with his counterparts at NATO, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke about the upcoming election in response to questions about it from allies and how it might impact Ukraine aid, saying he can’t predict the future but that there is still bipartisan support for Ukraine in Congress, according to sources familiar with the meeting. NATO officials say they are preparing for the US to take on a lesser role. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/18/politics/nato-ukraine-aid-us-election/index.html
Trump suggests Zelensky is to blame for the russia-Ukraine war. “He should never have let that war start,” Trump said, referring to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/17/trump-zelenskyy-biden-russia-ukraine-war-blame-00184173
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that the Western partners really wanted Ukraine to lower the mobilization age, but there are currently no plans to mobilize 18-year-olds. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/313420-vladimir-zelenskiy-vyskazalsya-o-vozmozhnosti-mobilizatsii-s-18-let
The situation with mobilization remains contradictory and it seems that the authorities are focused on raids and forced mobilization of those who do not want to fight, instead of eliminating the reasons why people do not want to fight. However, we understand why this is fundamentally impossible. At the very least, the country needs a good national idea. What is a national idea in Ukraine now? It is something you have to believe in while the government steals. Or rather, pretend to believe. There are no longer any people willing to fight for this.
North Korea has started sending troops to fight with russia in Ukraine, South Korea's spy agency has said as Seoul warned of a "grave security threat". The allegation comes a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he believed 10,000 North Korean soldiers could join the war, based on intelligence information. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3vkqwe9wwdo
During another prisoner exchange on October 19, Ukraine returned another 95 Ukrainian soldiers from russian captivity. They were tortured, starved and in terrible conditions. https://zaxid.net/ukrayina_pid_chas_obminu_povernula_z_rosiyskogo_polonu_shhe_34_biytsi_azovu_n1595984
This is extremely small, while Ukraine built another camp Center-5 for russian prisoners of war. The opening of the new camp is due to the fact that the number of russians who surrender every month significantly exceeds the number of those who are returned by russia as part of exchanges, and the places of detention of prisoners of war in Ukraine "fill up very quickly." "The conditions of Center-5 traditionally meet all the requirements of international humanitarian law: separate sleeping places, three hot meals, showers with hot water, access to medical care" https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-tabir-dlia-viyskovopolonenykh/33162173.html
I refuse to understand this while Ukrainian wounded soldiers receive less money and attention than russian prisoners of war.
The Ministry of Education and Science recognized that the level of knowledge of schoolchildren is two years behind due to the war. Many children, due to forced relocations and gaps in education during the war, did not receive enough knowledge and practical skills. This is not about grades, but about the development of socialization skills, about future professional opportunities, successes that may remain unrealized. https://news.telegraf.com.ua/ukr/ukraina/2024-10-18/5882077-uroven-znaniy-shkolnikov-otstaet-na-dva-goda-iz-za-voyny-v-mon-predupredili-o-posledstviyakh?traffic_source=ukr.net
Meanwhile, the level of employment of Ukrainians in Germany has increased significantly. https://www.dw.com/uk/vidomstvo-kanclera-frn-riven-zajnatosti-ukrainciv-u-nimeccini-suttevo-zris/a-70520722?maca=Ukr-Red-Telegram
Experts at the IMF have updated their forecast regarding the end of the war in Ukraine. The new memorandum says that the war will last until the end of 2025 at best. https://meta.ua/uk/news/war-in-ukraine/219350-u-mvf-zminili-stsenarii-koli-za-novim-prognozom-zavershitsya-viina/
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I believe this is an accurate assessment.
Opinion | Are Americans ready to give up on Ukraine? https://wapo.st/3BRFb5y
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I have another question, "Is Europe ready to give up Ukraine even if America does, since Ukraine is right next door to them?" If they do, in my opinion it is a foolish thing, because they will be next. If France, Germany, and the UK (the only significant military powers) really do see Ukraine as expendable, it's not hard to envision that they will also see Poland, Moldova, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, etc. as also being not worth the effort and expense of preserving them. There is almost no doubt that the EU countries could prevail in a defensive war against Russia, without the US. But it would require sacrifice on their part, and I have doubts that the typical European could be persuaded to give up six week vacations and other luxuries.
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It’s possible that the EU might see Ukraine as expendable because it’s not part of NATO presently, but I really doubt that will happen. Force Ukraine to take a crappy peace deal, probably yes, but I doubt wholesale abandonment. They know that there really would be a “domino effect” and that Putin will not be appeased in the long run.
However they have similar problems as we do in the US with right wing isolationist gains in their electorates so how long or how effectively they would support Ukraine is a question, at least as long as that remains the case.
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I believe this is an accurate assessment.
Opinion | Are Americans ready to give up on Ukraine? https://wapo.st/3BRFb5y
Thank you for your interesting opinion. It seems to me that Americans and American authorities may want completely different things. Therefore, support from Americans may mean nothing to American authorities. Moreover, we know how easy it is to change people's opinions to the desired one.
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I have another question, "Is Europe ready to give up Ukraine even if America does, since Ukraine is right next door to them?" If they do, in my opinion it is a foolish thing, because they will be next. If France, Germany, and the UK (the only significant military powers) really do see Ukraine as expendable, it's not hard to envision that they will also see Poland, Moldova, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, etc. as also being not worth the effort and expense of preserving them. There is almost no doubt that the EU countries could prevail in a defensive war against Russia, without the US. But it would require sacrifice on their part, and I have doubts that the typical European could be persuaded to give up six week vacations and other luxuries.
Europe is many different countries with different and sometimes directly opposite interests and views. But should we expect efficiency from Ukrainian diplomacy if even ambassadors to key countries do not know the language of their stay? I would be extremely interested to know what their colleagues abroad really think about each Ukrainian diplomat and senior management.
As for Poland, firstly, it is in NATO, and secondly, its authorities do not steal money, but buy weapons and increase the army, showing that Poland is ready to defend itself.
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski just announced that he had ordered the russian consulate in Poznań, western Poland, to close due to Moscow's sabotage attempts on the EU member's soil.
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It's cold in the apartments, but I save electricity and protect Ukraine's energy system from overload by dressing warmer and putting bottles of warm water in my bed instead of using electric heaters.
The boss insists on the necessity of finding a detached house instead of an office with autonomous electricity and heating. The task is not easy and I have involved a realtor in the search. Perhaps the constant reduction of business in the country will allow us to occupy such premises instead of those who will not survive the struggle with the state.
Today there was a big meeting and no one heard any complaints about them, which is a good sign. I am still collecting and analyzing information about the number of cases and the workload on people, and it is obvious that we need at least two more lawyers and an assistant.
At another time I would be happy about such growth, but given that my specialization is crisis management, bankruptcy and liquidation, this means that everything is only getting worse. In this we are somewhat similar to undertakers who rub their hands during wars and epidemics.
However, undertakers have many more clients. The lack of iron of weapons is compensated by the meat of soldiers. Clashes between the population and representatives of mobilization centers are increasingly common. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MKll9YGnew Recently, raids have been carried out by large groups accompanied by police. But the mobilization still goes badly. She is also badly affected by injustice and corruption.
The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine is conducting a large-scale official investigation into the heads of prosecutor's offices who may be receiving pensions under false disability. The actions of the state body are related to the corruption scandal about "false" pensions of prosecutors, which broke out last week.
At that time, Censor.net journalists published an investigation in which they claimed that half a hundred prosecutors of the Khmelnytsky region, including the regional prosecutor, could issue a disability certificate without having legal grounds for it.
According to journalists of the publication, Tetyana Krupa, the head of the medical and social expert commission of the Khmelnytsky region, who is being held in custody on suspicion of illegal enrichment, helped them to do this. Now journalists, as well as several leaders of anti-corruption public organizations, have reason to believe that Khmelnytsky region is not the only one.
According to the head of the Anti-Corruption Center, only these four dozen heads of prosecutor's offices "received more than 11 million hryvnias in pensions last year." "And this is only the tip of the iceberg. Because there are a whole bunch of heads of various departments and divisions. And there are also judges, the police, the State Security Bureau, among whom this phenomenon is also common". https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cx2ywj7w030o
Prosecutor General of Ukraine Andriy Kostin announced that he is resigning after a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine with the participation of President Volodymyr Zelensky, which, according to Kostin, discussed an "obviously immoral situation" with fake disabilities of state officials. https://t.me/pgo_gov_ua/26834
It was also decided to review the decisions of the medical and social expert commissions regarding the establishment of disabilities for officials of the relevant state bodies and to eliminate the commissions altogether by the end of next year. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/313698-msek-budut-likvidirovany-s-31-dekabrya-a-po-pensionnym-vyplatam-po-invalidnosti-dolzhnostnym-litsam-provedut-audit-reshenie-snbo
In fact, it is not only about money. Since disability is the basis for exemption from military service and allows travel abroad, it is obtained primarily for this purpose and bribes reach significant sizes. Moreover, recently there has been a secondary social inversion of the disabled. If earlier being disabled was an abnormality and meant a lower status in society, now disability has nothing to do with health and, on the contrary, demonstrates the high status of the holder of a disability document, who has the opportunity to acquire it. Although against the background of the global rise of abnormalities in modern society throughout the world, disability is not in the first place, in Ukraine it acquires a very special value, making "disabled people" a kind of "untouchable". We must admit that there is no corruption in Ukraine. Corruption is an ulcer on a healthy body. But when instead of a healthy body there is one big ulcer, this is no longer an abnormality. This is such a social system.
It is not for nothing that scientists were awarded this year's Nobel Prize for "explaining in a new way why there are such large differences in well-being between nations." One of the important explanations provided by this year's laureates is persistent differences in societal institutions. They have proven that societies with poor rule of law and institutions that exploit the population do not generate growth or change for the better. Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson found a clear chain of cause and effect. Institutions that were created to exploit the masses are bad for long-term growth, while those that establish fundamental economic freedoms and the rule of law are good for it. Political and economic institutions also tend to be durable. Even if extractive economic systems provide short-term benefits for the ruling elite, introducing more inclusive institutions, reducing extractiveness and the rule of law will create long-term benefits for all.
For now Ukraine's population has dropped by 10 million, or roughly a quarter, since the start of the full-scale russian invasion. This was stated by the head of the Eastern Europe Department of the United Nations Population Fund, Florence Bauer, during a press conference in Geneva (Switzerland).
This decline was the result of the departure of refugees, falling birth rates and war casualties.
https://webtv.un.org/en/asset/k1h/k1ha4tinhk
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Today there were no drones and I was able to sleep normally, but I still didn't sleep well. Changes in the weather and work load are showing up and I feel it with discomfort in my chest. On the other hand, I am sure that without work it would be the same. Today I thought it was Monday, but my colleagues told me that it was already Wednesday.
Ukraine is developing a drone capable of intercepting russia’s Iranian-designed kamikaze drones, The Telegraph can disclose. The new weapon will be deployed to chase down and intercept Shahed-136s instead of conventional air-defence munitions to protect Ukrainian cities against russian barrages. Its developers, the Wild Hornets group, say their latest innovation will be able to fly faster than 100mph and at altitudes nearing 10,000ft. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2024/10/20/anti-drone-ukraine-iranian-kamikazes-russia/
But the russians' tactics of using long-range kamikaze drones of the Shahed-136 type are undergoing active changes, and the enemy is trying to make these attacks more effective. The main thing in it is the use of a fairly significant number of false targets in several waves. The number of decoy drones is especially large in the first wave, which includes a large number of Gerbers, which are made of foam, and similar cheap UAVs with Lüneberg lenses. They go at low altitudes and start circling in a certain area.
Due to the fact that they are at a low altitude, they are difficult to track by radar stations and sometimes appear and then disappear on radar screens. And this leads to the fact that mobile fire groups are sent to that area. During the second wave, the proportions of false targets to real ones are already equal. But the third wave already contains a minimum of decoys and consists almost entirely of drones with combat units. All this is done in order to confuse our forces as much as possible, to stretch the available air defense means and thereby make a corridor in the Ukrainian air defense system. https://defence-ua.com/news/rf_zminjuje_taktiku_vikoristannja_shahediv_zi_sprobami_stvoriti_koridori_u_ppo-16959.html
Ukraine must turn the tide before it can negotiate to gain leverage, Kyiv needs a stable front in the Donbas—and western security guarantees. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-must-turn-tide-it-can-negotiate
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's proposal to replace American forces stationed in Europe with Ukrainian troops after the war drew criticism from the president of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Jerry Connolly. Zelensky claimed that battle-hardened Ukrainian soldiers could support NATO by relieving US forces. In his opinion, this would help the Americans to focus on the Indo-Pacific region. Despite Connolly's criticism, such a possibility is being discussed in the West if the information that North Korean troops entered the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia is confirmed.
However, Jerry Connolly called Zelensky's plan "inappropriate" and "harmful." The president of the PA NATO suggested that this is a mistaken attempt to play along with Donald Trump, who has questioned the military commitments of the US in Europe. https://informator.ua/uk/u-nato-vidpovili-na-ideyu-zelenskogo-zaminiti-ukrajincyami-viyska-ssha-u-yevropi
I also met the opinion of one "expert" who claims that Ukraine mobilizes one and a half times less than is lost in battles, and also ponders the inexpediency of lowering the conscription age. https://www.unian.ua/war/mobilizaciya-v-ukrajini-dikiy-zayaviv-shcho-novobranciv-u-pivtora-raza-menshe-nizh-vtrat-12796830.html
I don't know who he is and what reasons he has for citing some numbers, but the vacuum of information from the state is filled by various experts. Unfortunately, publicity often replaces competence, but the average person has to consume it all.
Volodymyr Zelensky is preparing another plan. According to the Ukrainian BBC, he instructed the authorities to develop proposals for the so-called internal action plan, which would help the country survive in war conditions. This initiative is not an alternative to the Ukrainian president's victory plan. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c7494778zj9o
Sarcasm is on.
It was the third year of a full-scale war, and apparently the president's bunker ran out of instant noodles, which he heroically munched when the "Chechens stormed Kyiv", otherwise I cannot explain how such an absurd idea could have come to his powerful head*. Perhaps this happened after realizing how treacherously the partners acted, forcing Ukraine to start relying on itself!
*For those who don't know, the word "powerful" is used by him more often than others, which is why he is also sometimes called "powerful".
However, I am sure that this plan in its simplicity and genius will be similar to the previous one - for example, half of the Ukrainians will have to go to war voluntarily, the other half will have to work for food and voluntarily donate all their property to the state.
Sarcasm is off.
Of course, I believe in the global victory of good, but some people in Ukraine consider that in the case of waging war until the death of pooteen or another trigger that will start a great turmoil in russia when it will forget about Ukraine, it can have extremely negative consequences. Ho Chi Minh won his war against the USA, and the Mujahideen won against the USSR. The price of the issue is a destroyed country, several million civilian victims and hundreds of thousands of killed combatants. Also, forget about democracy, human rights and prepare for total mobilization, not only of people (regardless of gender), but also of property that is currently in private ownership.
They call this scenario the "mujahideenization" of Ukraine. Whoever survives to victory will be sincerely surprised at how different the Ukraine that will defeat russia will be from the Ukraine that we started fighting for in 2014 or even in 2022. However, a yellow-blue flag will fly proudly over this bloody land, tons of marijuana will be grown in the fields, and transnational corporations - for large bribes and under the protection of the private military companies - will get access to the development of minerals "worth trillions of dollars".
https://www.facebook.com/gennadiy.druzenko/posts/pfbid0Zbexq1rFPFoe6gtFp2QET89vHUo2Zeuv9SDvrubvasvi7iCAJBoVejxBihn5gTw4l
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It was a tough week. On Friday, my alarm clock woke me up, although I usually wake up a little earlier. But for the first time in a long time, I fell asleep again after turning it off and oversleeping for work. It's good that I'm the boss and no one can scold me. But I finally took inventory of all the cases and made a general report, which no one could do before me for various reasons. The next step will be to create a special program based on this information with subsequent automation of processes. In order not to lose market positions, the company must implement new technologies, including AI. I see this as an interesting task.
The russians' shift in drone tactics is yielding results. If earlier drones were shot down outside the city, recently drones have already been flying into the city, and yesterday one of them crashed into a multi-story building and killed a teenage girl. In other cities closer to the front, attacks with medium-range missiles and aerial bombs also continue. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cr4lx93k0qqo If the missiles hit mainly roofs and upper floors, then drones can fly into a window of any floor from any side. Since their attacks continue throughout the night, the air alarm also lasts for hours. I don’t know what the situation is in other cities, but in Kyiv some people now prefer to sleep in the corridors.
I again have little time to follow what is happening in the country and abroad, but there are some things that everyone is talking about.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, Radosław Sikorski, said that the funds paid to Ukrainian refugees in Germany would be better transferred directly to Ukraine. According to the minister, Ukrainian refugees in Germany receive up to 1,200 euros per month. Sikorski emphasized that such payments create a financial incentive to stay in Germany, instead of men fighting at the front, and women rebuilding Ukraine's tax base. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBR5aiFdI_M&t=1s
He makes many populist statements and it seems that he is preparing to participate in the future elections of the president of Poland. Perhaps in this way he reflects on the fact that a part of Ukrainians moved from Poland to Germany and improves the economy and demography of Germany, not Poland.
Following the successful conclusion of a written procedure, the Council of the EU finally adopted a financial assistance package to Ukraine, including an exceptional macro-financial assistance (MFA) loan of up to €35 billion and a loan cooperation mechanism that will support Ukraine in repaying loans for up to €45 billion provided by the EU and G7 partners. https://x.com/HU24EU/status/1849091637424619801
In contrast to the people in Ukraine torn apart by contradictions and political preferences, the authorities in Ukraine demonstrate unity and impressive mutual support. The head of the faction of the pro-presidential party "Servant of the People" in the parliament, David Arakhamiya, and the head of the Mykolaiv regional military administration, Vitaly Kim, took MP Iryna Allahverdiyeva as a bailiff. She is suspected of illegal enrichment of UAH 20 million, the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office reported. https://www.facebook.com/sap.gov.ua/posts/pfbid02jYHUsasRGAXokEo14bAoxbKCSvDwTc9z81vgBKHWYTY5Rn9wqGtMVVM5T1Bac8kEl?rdid=H5rV8oRCUFqv8MKs
From December 1, every Ukrainian should receive a thousand hryvnias from the state. This was stated by Volodymyr Zelensky in the traditional evening address on October 25. The president did not provide details on how exactly the money will be allocated and what it can be spent on. According to him, all the details and procedures should be determined by the Cabinet of Ministers, but "the people should have the money on the first of December." https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cvgl326791qo
Cheap populism, which can cause inflation, but solves the very important problem of distracting people from something more important, such as the situation at the front. Some are trying to calculate the amount and convert it into drones or other weapons, some are asking where the authorities are going to get the money for this, given the insane budget deficit. The main thing is that this is what the majority of the population is paying attention to now.
Maryna arrived today and this is the most important thing for me now.
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Glad to hear the news that Maryna arrived safely despite the confusion in the transport sector, there.
I read that Ukraine and US have something in common: Insane budget deficits. Maybe the people in Ukraine recognize the insanity of it, while most people in the US don't recognize the insanity of our deficits. Instead all the talk is of sustainable energy and packaging practices, while our fiscal situation is totally unsustainable no matter what happens with spending or tax policy.
Hence you should not think that inept leadership is strictly something that exists only in Ukraine.
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As usual, there is a lot of work and little time. The weather is changing and stress is making us feel worse. The mood in the country is anxious. Drone attacks continue across the country, and frontline cities are also suffering from missile and air strikes.
Do not ask Ukraine when the war will end. Ask yourself – why Putin is still able to continue it - President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said at the Munich Security Conference on February 17, 2024. https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/ne-pitajte-ukrayinu-koli-zakinchitsya-vijna-pitajte-v-sebe-c-89021 But it seems that he still did not understand that the partners will not fight for Ukraine, if Ukraine itself builds roads, and its government steals during the war.
On October 29, I had the opportunity to personally assess how the mobilization centers work and talked for a long time with their lawyer. The officer looked rather sloppy in civilian clothes and knew the laws according to which he works every day worse than I do.
They realize that they are breaking the law in almost everything and it seems to suit them. It is not clear why they continue to demand that everyone else obey the law.
It was also noticeable that there were several times fewer "volunteers" who were forced to "draft" for service in the army than employees of the mobilization centers, the police and unknown people without identification marks who roamed the territory of the mobilization center. All of them were stocky and armed. Now I understand those who say that the mobilization would have been successfully carried out if all these persons had joined the army. Instead, the sick and the poor go to war, and the "mobilization" itself does not look like a tool for replenishing the army with healthy and strong fighters, but as an opportunity to make money from numerous corruption schemes. Otherwise, why has nothing changed over the years?
The New York Times wrote that US officials, with whom the publication spoke on condition of anonymity, criticized Zelensky's victory plan, calling it unrealistic and almost entirely dependent on Western aid. The publication claims that in a secret part of his plan, Zelensky requested Tomahawk missiles as part of the "non-nuclear deterrence package". According to a senior US official, this is an "absolutely impossible request".
In the same article, the NYT wrote that no country has agreed to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike deep in russia, and no major power has publicly approved Ukraine's invitation to NATO while the war rages.
Zelensky confirmed that in the "victory plan" Ukraine asked for long-range weapons, in particular, Tomahawk cruise missiles, but this was confidential information. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cwygpee5l8wo
That is, it once again confirms that the only plan of the Ukrainian authorities is that the partners should defeat russia, and Ukraine's obligation is exclusively to send Ukrainians to the front until they run out.
Ukraine is planning to add another 160,000 troops to its military over the next three months as Kyiv's forces struggle to fend off russian advances, officials in Kyiv said Tuesday. "There are plans to call up more than 160,000 people," the Secretary of Ukraine's National Security Council Oleksandr Lytvynenko told parliament. A security source separately told AFP the recruitment would take place over a three-month period. https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/world-news/810792/ukraine-to-mobilize-another-160000-troops-into-army-official-says/en
It seems to me that the real plan that the USA expects to see is reforms, the fight against corruption, and the implementation of NATO standards. But our authorities are not interested in such a plan. You won't make money on it, you'll only lose it.
Or the language barrier is to blame for everything. President Volodymyr Zelensky and the head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak often have conversations with American partners in English without the help of translators. However, according to the media, Zelensky's level of English is only average, while Yermak's is frankly low.
As the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports with reference to sources, attempts by Ukrainian government officials to speak English without an interpreter lead to misunderstandings. The American side often doubts whether the Ukrainian politicians were correctly understood, and whether they themselves correctly perceived the key details of the negotiations. https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ukraine/joe-biden-und-olaf-scholz-zum-nato-beitritt-der-ukraine-usa-kommt-in-bewegung-110070293.html
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This morning started with an attack of drones and at least one of them was shot down directly overhead. Debris from drones damaged houses in almost all districts of Kyiv. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/kievi-stalasya-shche-odna-pozhezha-pislya-1730531304.html
Maryna drew attention to the fact that before drones almost never flew into Kyiv, but now it has become a common thing. There were a total of five air alarms per day today, and I heard the opinion that the russians want to go on a 24-hour attack regime.
Maryna is already on the train heading back to Poland and on the one hand I am glad that this extremely difficult week is finally over, but on the other hand - it flew by too quickly. We can’t even explain to ourselves how we manage not to give up and continue to resist circumstances. I am really proud of my family.
Well, the third month that I have been working is coming to an end and I am quite satisfied with my achievements in such a short period of time. Frankly, due to understandable circumstances, I concentrate all my efforts and energy on work. I just don't have anywhere else to direct them now.
Again and again I go back in my mind and think about what path in life I chose and where it has already taken me and will take me next.
When you are busy with your own affairs, trying to work, create a family and raise children, mostly communicating with nice people, and being a social step above the majority, then you do not pay attention in which type of country you live. Besides, you are blind to the familiar things that have always surrounded you. You see the best side of it, being in a bubble. And just as relations with friends do not always stand the test of difficult times, so relations with the state manifest themselves in times of crisis. We are taught that you must obey the law, pay taxes, and then count on social security, law enforcement protection, and a pension, although its amount will be much less than what you paid for it during the time of honest work. In books on the theory of the state and law, this is called a social contract, and the consequence is a feeling of patriotism as a personal connection to one or another country. By country, I mean not only a certain territory on planet Earth, but mainly its people and government. Maybe there are countries in the world where everything happens exactly like this, but this is definitely not about Ukraine. And when you are betrayed by the state and you lose everything, without receiving any protection or support from the state, first you think that the problem is with the government. But then it turns out that the government is only what the majority of the population chooses. And later you realize that you have nothing to do with this majority or its choice. And those with whom you had common values were always a minority and either emigrated or died, and one day you are forced to admit that you live in a completely different country, which has nothing to do with the country of which you considered yourself a patriot, and in which you feel like a foreigner.
It is noteworthy that Maryna believes that Seva is mistaken about the situation in Ukraine, thinking that it is the same country that he left almost three years ago. She is also able to see changes that I cannot.
However, perhaps this country has always been like this, but I and my perception have changed. Perhaps this explains why those who understood this earlier, left Ukraine starting in 1991. The 2019 elections showed how catastrophic the situation was, but many, including me, simply couldn’t believe it. Now I don't want to deceive myself anymore.
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The New York Times reported that, according to the US authorities, Ukraine will have enough troops to wage war for another 6-12 months. This seems to be the main problem of Kyiv at the moment. US officials admit that russia is finding more troops and continues to recruit 25,000 to 30,000 contract recruits a month. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/us/politics/russia-ukraine-war.html
Ukraine is now struggling to cling on, not to win russia is slicing through Ukrainian defences in parts of the battlefield https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/10/29/ukraine-is-now-struggling-to-cling-on-not-to-win
russia’s army is gaining speed in its advance in eastern Ukraine, seizing more land last week than at any point this year, increasing pressure on Kyiv’s US and European allies to bolster its defenses. The outcome of next week’s US election may mean Kyiv is forced to accept peace under unfavorable conditions or face the prospect of continuing the fight against russia on its own, according to two people close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office, speaking on condition of anonymity because the matter is sensitive. There’s a deepening sense of despondency among officials about the course of the war, one of the people said. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-01/russia-speeds-up-advance-in-ukraine-as-mood-darkens-in-kyiv
Great Britain, which chairs the UN Security Council in November, announced a Security Council meeting dedicated to the 1,000 days of russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/3922617-radbez-oon-provede-zasidanna-do-1000-dniv-rosijskoi-vijni-proti-ukraini-golovuvatime-britania.html
In times of war, certain restrictions on basic human rights are necessary, provided they are justified, temporary and properly explained to the public. This was stated by the Ambassador of the European Union to Ukraine, Katarina Maternova, in an exclusive comment to Ukrinform on the eve of the publication of the Annual Report on EU Enlargement, in which the European Commission will assess, in particular, the situation with fundamental human rights in Ukraine. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/3921393-voennij-stan-ne-e-kartblansem-na-obmezenna-prav-posol-es.html
For the first time, the European Commission publicly criticized the national telethon "Edyny Novyny" and emphasized the need to restore a pluralistic media landscape in Ukraine. This is reported by "Europeyska Pravda" with reference to the European Commission's report on the progress of candidate states for EU membership. In particular, the EU criticizes the financing of the telethon from the state budget. They also doubt the objectivity of the format.
The European Commission also criticizes the work of the Rada TV channel, which should illuminate the activities of the parliament, "including the work of representatives of the parliamentary opposition." It is noted that the channel has been criticized for the low level of representation of the opposition, as well as for the fact that it has not resumed broadcasting the meetings of the Verkhovna Rada since 2022.
The document criticizing the telethon is part of the annual report on all candidate states, including Ukraine. It analyzes the compliance of the countries with the fundamental values of the European Union. This is, in particular, respect for freedom of speech.
The European Commission also noted the tasks of the candidate states in the document. The EU expects that Kyiv will "gradually restore a transparent, pluralistic and independent media landscape." Brussels is waiting for the lifting of restrictions by the Ukrainian authorities, and this should not be tied to the lifting of martial law. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/10/30/7197351/
The recommendations of the European Commission regarding the "Edyny Novyni" marathon have been taken into account, but the state plans to stop supporting the telethon only after the end of martial law, said the Minister of Culture and Strategic Communications Mykola Tochytsky. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1024249.html
Another corruption scheme for the procurement of drones at state expense has been exposed, but you won't hear about it in the state news. https://hromadske.ua/suspilstvo/233728-armiia-droniv-i-vidkativ-iak-zarobyty-mayze-600-mln-hrn-na-zakupivliakh-droniv-dlia-syl-oborony-i-do-choho-tut-fedorov
The number of refugees in Germany has reached an all-time high. Currently, 3.48 million people live in the country with the status of refugees or asylum seekers. Of this number, 1.18 million are Ukrainian refugees.
A year ago, the German government launched an employment program for Ukrainian refugees, easing the general rules and requirements for knowledge of German. This was done, among other things, in order to prevent a further increase in the cost of civil assistance. However, as BILD writes, the program completely failed.
"In 2023, only 20% of graduates of integration courses received a job offer from employment centers. None of them ever got a job. This year, 40% of graduates got jobs, less than 1% got a job."
https://t.me/BILD_Russian/19628
On the one hand, you can understand the Germans, and on the other, the Ukrainians - why work for pennies, if in this case you will receive almost as much as social assistance, only to be tired? Even in Poland, a Ukrainian for similar work will receive only half of what a Pole does, and a Ukrainian will not be hired at all for highly qualified work. I wonder what the situation is with the rest of the refugees in Germany, of whom Ukrainians make up only a third?
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Maryna arrived in Krakow in the morning and everything became the same as before. It's a pity that her tooth problem couldn't be solved this time, but she now has two new glasses. I will order glasses for myself with my next salary.
Unfortunately, my smartphone worked for more than five years and decided that it was enough. It constantly freezes and refuses to take photos and I'm not sure that it will last until the Christmas sales. On the other hand, if the dollar rate skyrockets, I'll lose even more.
Today is a surprisingly calm and sunny day and I only worked a couple of hours in the morning, sorting out one difficult case. Then I went to the store, and at lunchtime, taking advantage of the good propagation, I chatted with Colin G3ZAF and Terry G3VFO for over an hour. This is the first QSO with Terry, but thanks to the amplifier, he was clearly audible and it was nice to meet him.
Another piece of wonderful news - my house has been connected to the heating. Frosts are expected this night, so warmth will be helpful.
Ukrainian company presents advanced interceptor drone set to neutralize russian reconnaissance threats https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_company_presents_advanced_interceptor_drone_set_to_neutralize_russian_reconnaissance_threats-12377.html
Indeed, the most modern technologies are born and tested in real combat conditions in Ukraine. Unfortunately, most of the developers are immediately bought out by foreign companies.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Combating Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, made a fuss because Google showed the location of Ukraine's military systems on its updated maps. https://suspilne.media/871801-google-pokazav-na-svoih-kartah-roztasuvanna-ukrainskogo-ozbroenna-centr-protidii-dezinformacii/
I wonder why it surprises him. Apparently, he does not know anything about the fact that, in addition to Google, there are a lot of other companies and their satellites, including the military, which provide russia and China with the same images. https://www.worldatlas.com/space/countries-by-number-of-military-satellites.html#:~:text=The%20country%20with%20the%20most,third%20is%20Russia%20with%20110.
Ukraine and russia are conducting confidential negotiations with the aim of reaching compromises, reports the editor of the political department of the German publication Die Zeit Alisa Botha. https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2024-10/krieg-ukraine-diplomatie-verhandlungen-russland-5vor8
My attention was not drawn to the negotiations themselves, but to the fact that they began to be written about in the media.
When I began to see messages on social media that doctors, engineers, and recently gunners, tankers, and even air defense personnel find themselves in the infantry, get injured and die, I thought it was russian propaganda. But this was first written by MP Maryana Bezugla, who noted that the Air Force began to shoot down fewer "Shaheeds" due to the dispatch of many soldiers to the infantry, and then it was confirmed by Colonel Yuriy Ignat, the head of the public relations service of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/ignat-pidtverdiv-zayavu-bezugloi-pro-perevid-viyskovikh-z-ppo-v-pikhotu
And MP Roman Kostenko said that Ukraine needs to mobilize 500,000 citizens due to the current situation on the battlefield.
https://24tv.ua/mobilizatsiya-ukrayini-kostenko-skazav-shho-treba-mobilizuvati_n2677449
But even observers in Austria are able to draw the right conclusions:
Excuses like ‘Ukraine has too few men in age 19-21’ to mobilise and send to war are BS. It has enough to defeat Russia (and it has not only men, but also women of that age) – provided these are properly trained, equipped and – especially – properly commanded. The issue is of mobilising, motivating, and then properly deploying the available ‘manpower’: that’s within responsibility of a government - provided this would be doing its job, which it isn’t. Vice versa: with current leadership, Ukraine couldn’t win this war even if mobilising 10 million of troops. Because its current leadership has no idea how to mobilise and organise the entire society and economy, nor is it interested in finding commanders that can win this war. The current leadership has only managed to ruin even its reputation for begging for help from the West, while its generals are excelling in squandering meagre resources in massive battles of attrition (or failures they have created, and then bolstered), getting rid of unpleasant subordinates through ordering them into idiotic frontal counterattacks, and pocketing bribes at every opportunity.
Overall (and I’m the first to be ‘unhappy’ by this ‘unpleasant’ conclusion): sorry, but, Ukraine needs new leadership, and a complete, top-to-bottom reform of its governance and armed forces.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/dreamland?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
We can't allow the idea that Ukraine is ruled by idiots? Does that mean they are doing it on purpose? And if they really are idiots, then what can this country expect?
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Today I stayed home, but my workday was 12 hours, interrupted only by a short lunch and a call from Cicely. We couldn't remember the last time we spoke.
Today the main topic of all conversations is Trump's convincing victory in the elections. It's hard for me to judge what kind of president he is, but I admire him as a person. I don't know if there is anyone else on earth who could win such a fight at such an age. I hope he really needs it, because being the president of the USA is very difficult and you can spend the rest of your health on it.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, signed laws on the extension of martial law in Ukraine and on the extension of general mobilization. https://www.unian.ua/society/mobilizaciya-ta-voyenniy-stan-v-ukrajini-prodovzheni-zelenskiy-pidpisav-ukazi-12810939.html
He also rushed to congratulate Trump on his victory, but I don't think Zelensky is happy about that. I wouldn't want Ukraine to lose US support because of him and his personal relationship with Trump. Although thieves and impostors seized power in the country (let me remind you that the powers of both the president and parliament expired long ago), the country continued to exist, and now its fate depends entirely on Trump's position.
On the other hand, maybe Trump will do something that will open up other possibilities than the slow destruction of Ukraine's population and infrastructure under the Democrats. I wouldn't give Ukraine another year to exist if Harris wins. Their persistent support for Zelensky and his gang makes me suspect something more. I wouldn't be surprised if we soon learn a lot of interesting details about their relationship.
Another fact speaks volumes about the authorities’ ability to govern the country. As the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine reported in response to an information request to the Ukrainian media, there are no ambassadors in almost 30 Ukrainian embassies.
In particular, there are no ambassadors in the following countries: Algeria, Angola, Belgium, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Armenia, Ghana, Greece, Georgia, Ethiopia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ivory Coast, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Malaysia, Mozambique, Moldova, Norway, Oman, Rwanda, Thailand, Tanzania, Turkey, Hungary, Philippines. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/posli-ukrajini-u-sviti-zelenskiy-anonsuvav-kadrovi-zmini-y-priznachennya-50464111.html
Apparently the candidates did not have enough money to pay bribes separately for the appointment and separately for the opportunity to leave the country.
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Another noisy night in Kyiv and destruction in almost all areas. They say the russians are now using modified drones with thermobaric explosives instead of high explosives, and now there is more destruction. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/czd5vzrpz58o
And yesterday, as a result of an attack by russian UAVs on an energy facility, power was partially cut off in Zhytomyr and Rivne regions. https://unn.ua/news/ataka-rf-na-enerhetyku-pryzvela-do-chastkovoho-znestrumlennia-zhytomyrshchyny-ta-rivnenshchyny-ukrenerho
Due to the constant air raid sirens and blocked bridges, as well as severe traffic jams, I have again stayed to work from home. In my case, this does not mean a decrease, but an increase in work because I do not waste time on the road. We are short of people and I have to be a playing coach, doing one thing or another, compensating for the lack of performers. I am constantly trying to find lawyers without success, but judging by the ads, many law firms in Ukraine have the same problems. So I am even more pleased with the wonderful people who are already my team.
Since in Ukraine the state is not an assistant and certainly not a protector, but an enemy of business, I am not surprised that arms manufacturers are leaving the country. Most of the Ukrainian companies that produce weapons are planning to transfer part of their activities abroad or have already done so. It is about almost 85%. https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/pourquoi-l-ukraine-veut-exporter-une-partie-des-armes-qu-elle-produit-20241107
One of my acquaintances, a manufacturer, says that another increase in taxes or increased mobilization will cause him to stop production.
Another batch of lies from the Prime Minister. According to him, summonses are sent to people who do not pay a single hryvnia of taxes and are not registered anywhere as working people. Today the priority of mobilization is given to people who are not working, the unemployed. https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/677404-mobilizaciya-v-ukrajini-hto-pershiy-otrimuye-povistki-v-ukrajini
But in reality, as soon as a person starts working officially or updates his data in any way, he immediately receives a summons.
Today I observed a discussion about the difference between nationality and citizenship in the context that not every person with Ukrainian citizenship is Ukrainian. This is dangerous reasoning. It can lead to the conclusion that a situation where you cannot renounce citizenship and are physically held by the authorities is no longer citizenship, but slavery.
Everyone is wondering what Trump will do and what scenario he will choose to end the war in Ukraine. https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-presidency-ukraine-russia-war-plans-008655c0?msockid=2727718dcf746fd1308264aece666e06 But I was interested to listen to russian propaganda on the radio. Their commentators are sad and gloomy, which is the best way to know that Trump is a bad option for them.
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Wlad, I have of course been reading your posts with great interest (as have many others, I suspect).
As to the US election, I'll give you my perspective for whatever it's worth, vis a vis Ukraine: First, I think few people in the new Administration will want to abandon Ukraine. Naturally, there are many average citizens who would, but these are people who have a narrow perspective and have mostly never been in a leadership or high-level decision-making position. Politicians may express sympathy for their viewpoint to garner their votes, but they are not going to take these citizens' advice on geopolitical matters.
My understanding of Trump's view on Ukraine is that he's willing to compromise to achieve peace, unlike Zelensky who seems to be unwilling to compromise, but instead insists on total victory (as long as someone else is paying the price for it). It might be better to preserve a large part of Ukraine, let it join NATO, while there is still something left to preserve.
Also, Trump feels that Europe should shoulder the lion's share of Ukraine's defense, since Ukraine is a hell of a lot closer to Europe than to the USA, Europe's annual GDP is about equal to the USA's GDP, and hence the logic goes: why doesn't Europe devote as much to defense as the US does? (Especially in light of the US fiscal situation, which is dire and getting more unsustainable every year).
Yet, Trump isn't going to just pull the rug out from under Ukraine, as that would ruin his negotiating position against Russia. My guess is, he will ramp things up militarily, inflict as much pain on Russia as he can while he is negotiating with them, all the while privately informing Zelensky that he has a limited time frame for US support, so Zelensky had better become a lot more flexible in terms of what he considers to be an acceptable peace.
That's what a good negotiator would do. Trump has spent his whole life negotiating, so I think he has as good a shot as anyone in resolving the conflict in a way that won't be ideal, but perhaps will be tolerable.
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Just catching up.
I’m glad that Maryna was able to visit you and returned to Poland safely. Happy also that your work is going well and your team there is working. I hope you will find some good people to add to staff.
Sorry to hear that your phone is malfunctioning. Are replacements in short supply and/or very costly there?
I read Tom Coopers commentary. Yes, sarcastic per its title, but seems on target. It’s difficult to imagine how the leadership in Ukraine could have been any worse.
Which brings me to what the US and NATO, ( ie mostly Germany) will do after Trump is inaugurated. Unfortunately I do not share Brady’s cautiously hopeful outlook, sorry.
Past performance is usually the best predictor of future performance (though not the only one, of course). Given his first term, severe narcissistic personality disorders, and perhaps the beginnings of dementia, I expect that his second term will be characterized by even more chaos than his first.
Add in that he is reportedly planning to appoint people into the cabinet and other vital positions who are loyalists first, second and third, and perhaps competent in their field as fourth, so there will be even fewer people in his orbit to tell truth to power, or to know what to do in their positions.
Based upon his first term, and well publicized reports by several former close advisors and retired top military, I do not expect that he can make sound strategic and tactical geopolitical decisions based on thorough knowledge of the situation and careful consideration of options. Not to mention motivation: He has no real interest in such matters other than how they might bolster his wealth, self image, and popularity among his admirers, and in any case he would rather play golf and leave the messy details to others.
OK - so having said that, what do I expect? First, as I said, is chaos. So trying to estimate what he might do is a fools errand, since that requires reasonably reliable facts and logical extrapolations.
But a wild guess is that he will very much want to satisfy his campaign pledge by rapidly ending the war which necessarily means appeasing Putin so that he will agree. Putin is under little urgency to stop the war and has enough men and material to continue fighting for a long time, plus a compliant population, so Trump has little to offer him.
Trump has no love for Zelenskyy who refused to do his bidding vis a vis Hunter Biden so he will be told to sit down and shut up or not even one more dollar or artillery shell will be provided. Also, Germany and the other NATO members will go along having tired of the situation and needing to replenish arms given to Ukraine and increase military spending anyway. (So to must the US).
The net result will probably be either an armistice and a frozen conflict similar to the Korean Peninsula or a de facto ceding of Crimea and eastern Ukraine to Russia. Putin will try again to take all of Ukraine of course, so either of these will be only temporary. Not so different from how Trump negotiated with the Taliban to end that war.
On edit: And no NATO membership for Ukraine. Perhaps security guarantees, but we saw how valuable those were in this war. /s
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Another Saturday, and I woke up with difficulty. I was so tired last week that yesterday evening I was no longer able to think and put off reading all my work mail and studying documents until Monday. Perhaps my sleepy state is also caused by the weather. Instead of the sun, the sky is now covered with clouds. However, at lunchtime I turned on the radio and according to the schedule, there were both Colin G3ZAF and Sergiy UT3UFD, who soon came in person and invited me for coffee. I also started repairing another radio, which was sent to me by a person who saw my videos. It helps to distract and relax.
Drone attacks continue constantly, but one of them was successfully repelled by a Kyiv skyscraper. After the drone hit the technical floor of one of the Kyiv skyscrapers, a fire broke out on the 33rd floor. Thanks to modern fire-fighting systems activated automatically, the fire remained localized without spreading to other parts of the building. As the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine explains, this was possible thanks to splinker extinguishing systems and the use of materials with high fire resistance that meet the latest standards.
The splinker system reacts instantly — in the event of smoke or high temperature being detected, the spraying of water or foam solution is triggered directly at the point of ignition. Thus, the fire on the 33rd floor was stopped before the arrival of firefighters, which saved the residents and the premises from large-scale consequences. https://life.kyiv.ua/news/yak-kivskiy-hmarochos-samostiyno-zupiniv-pozhezhu-pislya-ataki-shaheda
Also, as a result of a russian airstrike on Kupyansk, not far from the front in the east, two people were killed, and another man was injured. Many buildings were damaged. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/11/09/novyna/suspilstvo/okupanty-zavdaly-aviaudaru-po-kupyansku-ye-zahybli
A Biden administration push to send billions of dollars of military equipment to Ukraine before it leaves office is facing major logistical hurdles and is raising concern that the transfers will deplete already-stretched U.S. stockpiles, officials said. The USA will urgently send to Ukraine 500 interceptor missiles for the NASAMS and Patriot air defense systems. https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-struggles-to-rush-weapons-to-ukraine-before-trump-takes-office-dfabb1fd
Poland has released official data on aid to Ukraine since the start of the russian invasion in 2022. According to the results, the country became the leader among the allies in terms of the amount of military and humanitarian aid relative to its GDP. The total amount of assistance is €3.23 billion, which is 4.91% of the Polish GDP. Of this amount, 0.71% was spent on supporting Ukraine, and 4.2% on aid to Ukrainian refugees. This is stated on the website of the President of Poland. https://www.prezydent.pl/aktualnosci/wydarzenia/polska-pomoc-dla-ukrainy,93620
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I’m glad that Maryna was able to visit you and returned to Poland safely. Happy also that your work is going well and your team there is working. I hope you will find some good people to add to staff.
Sorry to hear that your phone is malfunctioning. Are replacements in short supply and/or very costly there?
I read Tom Coopers commentary. Yes, sarcastic per its title, but seems on target. It’s difficult to imagine how the leadership in Ukraine could have been any worse.
Which brings me to what the US and NATO, ( ie mostly Germany) will do after Trump is inaugurated. Unfortunately I do not share Brady’s cautiously hopeful outlook, sorry.
Past performance is usually the best predictor of future performance (though not the only one, of course). Given his first term, severe narcissistic personality disorders, and perhaps the beginnings of dementia, I expect that his second term will be characterized by even more chaos than his first.
Add in that he is reportedly planning to appoint people into the cabinet and other vital positions who are loyalists first, second and third, and perhaps competent in their field as fourth, so there will be even fewer people in his orbit to tell truth to power, or to know what to do in their positions.
Thanks Braden and Bob for your opinions. It allows me to better understand what is happening and will happen in the US and, accordingly, gives me an understanding of what to prepare for in Ukraine.
You can imagine the number of opinions and scenarios that anyone who considers themselves knowledgeable in politics offers. That is, almost everyone.
The most amazing thing is that everyone is confident not only that the war will end soon, but also that elections will be held in the spring. Some are even already making plans to open airports in Ukraine.
The wildest of the conspiracy theories suggests that former President and Zelensky's enemy number 1, Poroshenko, will implement a cunning plan to seize power by nominating Zaluzhny for president. This will be financed personally by Poroshenko and the generals, who, it turns out, stole money and created corruption schemes for a reason.
A senior adviser to president-elect Donald Trump says the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in the war in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to gain back territory. Bryan Lanza, a Republican party strategist, told the BBC the Trump administration would ask Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his version of a "realistic vision for peace". "And if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he's not serious," he said. "Crimea is gone." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxrwr078v7o
Of course, this is only one of many statements, but no one knows what exactly Trump will do and how. Perhaps he has already agreed on everything with the leaders of Europe, russia and China, but we will find out about this later. By the way, the political crisis in Germany and the prospect of early elections there make Europe's support for Ukraine very unstable and unpredictable. Well, we have entered a period of maximum turbulence.
Ukraine needs at least 4.5 million additional workers. But, despite such an acute need for workers, there are almost twice as many people of working age in the country who are not officially registered at any job. The Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Tetyana Berezhna spoke at the 10th Kyiv International Economic Forum about this main paradox of the domestic labor market, Interfax reports. https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1025828.html
Apparently, the authorities need to sometimes come out of their offices, securely protected from the people, and talk to ordinary people to understand who really created this problem. For some reason, no one else cites Israel as an example, where there is also a big war, but no one has closed the borders, banned soldiers from rotation and demobilization, and no one is catching people on the streets.
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Rest day today. Had a QSO with Colin and unexpectedly called the Slovak expedition from Cocos (Keeling) Islands VK9CV.
There was an air alarm during the night but I didn't hear anything. But it looks like tonight russia and Ukraine have carried out their largest drone attacks against each other since the start of the war. russia's defence ministry said it intercepted 84 Ukrainian drones over six regions, including some approaching Moscow, which forced flights to be diverted from three of the capital's major airports. Ukraine's air force said russia launched 145 drones towards every part of the country on Saturday night, with most shot down. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx28jd0114ro
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I can understand why, when Ukrainians have been in a stalemate war for years, that has accomplished nothing other than mass casualties on each side, the prospect of any kind of change would stir up hopes within them. The present risk-averse approach of the US and EU has no potential to accomplish anything but stalemate, and I think everyone can see that, but don't know what to do about it. Especially when "don't risk escalation" is the sine qua non.
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I can understand why, when Ukrainians have been in a stalemate war for years, that has accomplished nothing other than mass casualties on each side, the prospect of any kind of change would stir up hopes within them. The present risk-averse approach of the US and EU has no potential to accomplish anything but stalemate, and I think everyone can see that, but don't know what to do about it. Especially when "don't risk escalation" is the sine qua non.
In my case, it's not even hope, but the expectation of new opportunities. Besides, I'm calm. God has led me through all the trials and I believe that He will support me in the next ones.
Trump's victory has already led to interesting consequences. Today I heard about a Crimean resident of about 60 years old, who suddenly, along with many other marginalized people, signed a contract and went to fight. He was killed on the very first day, but managed to get a lot of money when signing the contract, and his family will receive even more payments. As it turned out, their enthusiasm was caused by the fact that many are sure that the war will soon end, and the chances of living until then are greatly increased. This person was wrong, but many others are now actively replenishing the russian army.
Another tough week. In the last couple of days, it was hard to get up to the alarm, the workload at work and the change in weather with rains again led to the fact that I began to feel bad. I need to slow down. Yesterday, snow fell in the east and it will probably soon be in Kyiv too.
In the meantime, russian drones and missiles continue to kill people almost every day across the country, far from the front. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cew2jdd11pyo
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8jyrn4z1gko
However, hatred towards russians does not diminish when you see photographs of destroyed houses and murdered children and adults.
Poland seeks British help to protect Ukraine after Trump win. Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, will hold talks with the leaders of Britain, France and Nato over concerns about the impact of the US election. https://www.thetimes.com/article/3a759a39-f371-437c-ab8b-19f1028215a5
I am glad that Poland is trying to take over regional leadership from Germany, because this gives Ukraine a chance not only to preserve its statehood in the near future, but also in the future to come under the influence of Poland and begin to rise from the abyss into which it has fallen for the last 30 years.
russian President vladimir pooteen and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke on the phone for the first time in two years. In this way, the isolation of the russian president, with whom the vast majority of Western leaders refused to speak due to aggression against Ukraine, was broken. The initiative came from Scholz and took place in close coordination with the United States, Britain, France and other G7 countries, writes the German publication Spiegel with reference to its sources. https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/wladimir-putin-und-olaf-scholz-telefonieren-erstmals-seit-zwei-jahren-a-dc3f43af-807a-4fcb-b92f-44cc2674aba9 Some associate this with early elections in Germany and Scholz's desire to strengthen his position.
Under the administration of newly elected US President Donald Trump, "the war will end faster," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview. https://news.liga.net/ua/politics/news/zelenskyi-pry-trampi-viina-zakinchytsia-shvydshe In Ukraine, a joke has already appeared about the shortage of shoes and the excess profits of shoe stores due to the number of those who ran to "change their shoes" due to the unexpected victory of Trump, in which they did not want to believe and bet on the victory of the Democrats.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, forced mobilization of those who can be caught continues. On Friday, November 15, a video with the caption that a person in uniform shooting a person in the back who is running away near Kyiv began to circulate on social media. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/968up13VDmE
The police reported that they were investigating the shooting incident and denied that it was a representative of the mobilization center, but for some reason no one believes them.
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I welcome Poland playing a much larger role in the region, and even wider. I hope you’re right and it does improve Ukraine governance and societal norms. Of course the Poles have a high strategic interest in a strong Ukraine. The Germans are too reticent to act, or even be seen to act, because of business interests and their far too broadly applied pacifism resulting from historic guilt.
That Trump will seek to end the war quickly seems certain, or should I say as certain as anything can be with him. The question is how disadvantaged Ukraine will be, including whether future NATO membership would be allowed (99% chance no, IMO), and what would protect Ukraine if not NATO. Also of interest will be how Trump and his family will personally profit from what comes after the war.
Another question is how funding the rebuilding of Ukraine will be done and how that will be spread among the involved countries. I expect that frozen Russian assets will be thawed immediately and that interest not already spent will be returned rather than used for reconstruction. Don’t expect Trump to agree to the US paying most or much at all; he will almost certainly demand that the EU deal with it.
Then there is the supply of Russian gas to Europe. Who will pay to repair the Nordstream pipeline? Will Europe suffer collective amnesia and resume buying all the Russian gas that they can?
I expect that the Russians will vastly increase their covert intelligence operations and meddling in the US and the EU without the distraction of the war, and with US intelligence weakened by Trump.
What will the war’s end mean for relations and cooperation between Russia, China, Iran and NK?
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Another question is how funding the rebuilding of Ukraine will be done and how that will be spread among the involved countries. I expect that frozen Russian assets will be thawed immediately and that interest not already spent will be returned rather than used for reconstruction. Don’t expect Trump to agree to the US paying most or much at all; he will almost certainly demand that the EU deal with it.
If I were a European politician, I would propose, after the declaration of “peace” and fixing new border along the front line, to recognize russia as guilty of the genocide of Ukrainians and, by analogy with Germany, at the expense of its frozen assets, to pay all Ukrainians from the occupied territories a sufficiently large sum with which they could buy housing in the country where they received refugee status.
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If I were a European politician, I would propose, after the declaration of “peace” and fixing new border along the front line, to recognize russia as guilty of the genocide of Ukrainians and, by analogy with Germany, at the expense of its frozen assets, to pay all Ukrainians from the occupied territories a sufficiently large sum with which they could buy housing in the country where they received refugee status.
I hope so, or something similar, and that it would be implemented. However I doubt it will be.
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It's getting colder quickly
Yep. :( Winter is coming to northern hemisphere.
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I hope so, or something similar, and that it would be implemented. However I doubt it will be.
I'm just counting on their greed. Such an opportunity to get other people's money into their economy under a plausible pretext!
Today's missile attack began at sparrow fart and involved more than 100 missiles of all types. At least 10 people were killed. Ukraine’s largest private energy company said the strikes caused "significant damage" to its thermal energy plants and some areas were cut off from the electricity grid as a consequence. Odesa region Governor Oleh Kiper said there had also been disruptions to heat and water supplies, although the latter was gradually being restored. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cjdl98dk40gt
It is quite difficult to find out the truth about the real consequences, and it will give nothing but sadness. In most of Kyiv there was no electricity for a couple of hours in the morning, but it was not turned off after that. It is good that the weather will be good for another week. Today it was +8C and sunny.
There was a good propagation and I spent some time at the radio and had several good QSO with England, Argentina and Saudi Arabia. Repair of the last receiver is going badly. For the second week now I have not been able to restore reception on medium and short waves. It seems that the problem is still in the dead quartz crystal, which has not been made for 30 years.
I have a headache all day and I feel bad. I have an important meeting with a client tomorrow and I can only cancel it if there is another attack, since I am currently the senior representative of our company, who is in Ukraine and no one can go to the meeting except me.
The Kyiv City State Administration made it clear: no matter how much Kyiv residents protest, indignant and create petitions, nothing will change in the rules of public transport, which were adopted in August 2022. So, transport collapses with overcrowded metro trains, lack of electric transport and the impossibility of getting from the left bank to the right during air raids will remain features of metropolitan life. And there will be no concessions in the form of at least open underground metro stations. https://kiev.informator.ua/uk/v-klichka-ne-zadovolnyatimut-vimogu-kiyan-ne-zakrivati-nazemni-stanciji-metro-pid-chas-trivog
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gave support to the decision by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to speak directly with vladimir pooteen on Friday, saying that ending the war will require some engagement with russia’s president. “We all understand how important it is to see an end to the violence in Ukraine, to see an end to conflicts around the world.” Trudeau said in Peru, where he was attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. “That requires a level of engagement with counterparts who in many cases we disagree with.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-16/trudeau-indicates-support-for-scholz-speaking-with-putin
pooteen will not stop after Ukraine, but will continue his attacks, in the Baltics or elsewhere - that is how the military and intelligence officers see it. He is already waging a shadow war, including against Germany, as research by WELT AM SONNTAG and "Politico" shows. https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus254516486/Russlands-Kampf-gegen-den-Westen-Wie-Putin-in-Europa-zuendelt.html
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I'm just counting on their greed. Such an opportunity to get other people's money into their economy under a plausible pretext!
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pooteen will not stop after Ukraine, but will continue his attacks, in the Baltics or elsewhere - that is how the military and intelligence officers see it. He is already waging a shadow war, including against Germany, as research by WELT AM SONNTAG and "Politico" shows. https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus254516486/Russlands-Kampf-gegen-den-Westen-Wie-Putin-in-Europa-zuendelt.html
The reason I doubt it will happen is that I think pootie-poot (Pres. George Bush the junior’s nickname for Putin) will demand that the money be returned as a condition of the peace deal.
The Welt article is paywalled. Likely they already pointed out that PP is waging shadow wars against many western countries. Disinformation, faked videos, and similar covert actions are cheap and easy, and there is a significant percentage of people who swallow it and regurgitate it to their friends a relatives.
Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s appointee for director of National intelligence is on record multiple times taking Russia’s line on various things. Is she a mole, or just a useful idiot?
PP would love to have a mole or idiot in that position. Not only would she be able to compromise or quash information from our own agencies, but our allies wouldn’t share highly sensitive intelligence info with the US, nor would they believe what was told to them by the US without very careful vetting.
As I write this I see in the news that Biden FINALLY allowed long range ATACMS to be used inside Russia. It’s probably too little too late by far, but at least it will be helpful. I wonder how many of them are available at this point.
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Greetings Wlad,
I am glad you are busy. Keeps your mind of bad news, or even worse news :(
Like so many, I am ignoring national news in the strictest sense. Nominees that are monkeys . . I am so very disappointed, forced to endure it.
Had our first 0c morning yesterday. The cold has become difficult for me to endure, even with multiple layers, I can't seem to get/stay warm. The energy cost to warm my house is the highest in the country. BUGGER!
Found a small frozen turkey at the grocery store, 2.5kg, so I will look forward to hour national day of Thanks Giving with a roasted bird, stuffed, and some wonderful vegetables and potatoes. I'll have left-over food for two weeks and LOVE IT!
There is a huge storm aiming right at us. Today I will put fuel into my generator, fill up the can and my car. Wind will gust to 90km. BUGGER!
On the good side, I ordered a mini PC, and small monitor, keyboard/mouse, USB hub. Saturday night, I assembled everything. The boxes provided absolute wonderful entertainment for cats! The little PC only uses about 6-12 watts and all of it is native 12VDC, so it's perfect for my 100% solar powered radio station. I will be retiring my trusty IBM x61 Thinkpad from 2005. As I was installing Linux on it, I opened a web browser and watched a great video from some youtube guy who came to my town to talk with local musician/farmer and a Viet Nam vet who I've known and worked with for years. I'll put the link to it if you want to see it, but also the link to the musicians music video of his latest album. I really like the guys voice and music.
All week it will be storming and hard rain. So I have to guard my recliner as the cats think it's only for them :)
In the mean time, I'll try to keep positive while the monkeys multiply.
73
Jaye
Bret's music video:
https://youtu.be/O1CdiRIHdvI
Humboldt documentary:
https://youtu.be/74OCcKg26EQ
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Lately I have noticed that it is difficult for me to find time in the evening to write something after a sleepless night and a hard day at work. What excited me during the day and I wanted to write about it, becomes insignificant and unclear in the evening when you want to sleep and your thoughts are confused. After all, writing is serious work and it cannot be done well without making serious efforts and without having the right mood. It is even more important to continue recording everything so as not to lose the sequence of events that directly reflect the dynamics of what is happening, which in turn forms the attitude to this or that event or character.
Yesterday I put all my work aside when Kate asked me to help her with her English homework. We tried hard for almost two hours and the result was a good grade. But the main thing is that we spent time together this way and raised our level of English. Kate sleeps little because of the huge workload, but I hope these workouts will increase her efficiency and it will get easier with time. I myself have gone through this and still continue to learn and develop every day. It helps to drown out the awareness of the meaninglessness of existence, distract and occupy yourself with something.
President Biden is making his final appearance at an international summit today, the G20 in Rio de Janeiro. Before the president authorized Ukraine to fire long-range American weapons into russia focused on the region of Kursk, which Ukraine seized and Moscow is trying to recapture. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0mzjm7knw7o
Jake Sullivan:
We have provided the tanks. We have provided the F-16s. We have provided the HIMARS. We have provided the Patriots. We have provided many of the things that you said earlier we wouldn't provide.
And it's not back then. It's, rather, today that Ukraine finds itself in a more challenged position on the battlefield, suggesting that there's not a straight line between those weapons systems and how it does on the battlefield. Where is the straightest line between Ukrainian performance and inputs? It's on mobilization and manpower. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/kyiv-stands-sullivan-says-u-s-role-in-defending-ukraine-defines-bidens-legacy
But the President of Ukraine in one of his latest interviews stated that no one made any dozens of new brigades. https://ukr.radio/news.html?newsID=105824 The question of where all the mobilized people go if there is no demobilization remains open, but the authorities again and again declare the need to mobilize even more people.
On November 19, on the 1,000th day of the Great War, President Volodymyr Zelensky presented the Plan for Ukraine’s Internal Resilience to the Verkhovna Rada. The document consists of 10 points and concerns security, energy, finance, Ukrainian-made weapons, and cooperation with partners.
This has already given rise to a large number of sad jokes about the president's latest plan https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cx2l495rdedo , the number of which is already difficult to count, but which have one thing in common - they are not being implemented. It should also be taken into account that in the Ukrainian language the word "plan" has a second meaning - a slang name for marijuana, which makes every statement by the president that he has a plan rather ambiguous.
Personally, it makes me sad how many on social networks strive to mention the beautiful figure of 1000 days of war, although for me and many others it began 10 years ago.
Vladimir pooteen has approved changes to russia’s nuclear doctrine, setting out new conditions under which the country would consider using its arsenal. The doctrine now says an attack from a non-nuclear state, if backed by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint assault on russia. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4v0rey0jzo
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Greetings Wlad,
I am glad you are busy. Keeps your mind of bad news, or even worse news :(
Like so many, I am ignoring national news in the strictest sense. Nominees that are monkeys . . I am so very disappointed, forced to endure it.
Had our first 0c morning yesterday. The cold has become difficult for me to endure, even with multiple layers, I can't seem to get/stay warm. The energy cost to warm my house is the highest in the country. BUGGER!
Found a small frozen turkey at the grocery store, 2.5kg, so I will look forward to hour national day of Thanks Giving with a roasted bird, stuffed, and some wonderful vegetables and potatoes. I'll have left-over food for two weeks and LOVE IT!
There is a huge storm aiming right at us. Today I will put fuel into my generator, fill up the can and my car. Wind will gust to 90km. BUGGER!
On the good side, I ordered a mini PC, and small monitor, keyboard/mouse, USB hub. Saturday night, I assembled everything. The boxes provided absolute wonderful entertainment for cats! The little PC only uses about 6-12 watts and all of it is native 12VDC, so it's perfect for my 100% solar powered radio station. I will be retiring my trusty IBM x61 Thinkpad from 2005. As I was installing Linux on it, I opened a web browser and watched a great video from some youtube guy who came to my town to talk with local musician/farmer and a Viet Nam vet who I've known and worked with for years. I'll put the link to it if you want to see it, but also the link to the musicians music video of his latest album. I really like the guys voice and music.
All week it will be storming and hard rain. So I have to guard my recliner as the cats think it's only for them :)
In the mean time, I'll try to keep positive while the monkeys multiply.
73
Jaye
Bret's music video:
https://youtu.be/O1CdiRIHdvI
Humboldt documentary:
https://youtu.be/74OCcKg26EQ
Hi Jaye!
Nice to hear from you!
Thank you for nice story/music! It conveys the atmosphere well.
You are right! Having food and warmth is enough for comfort and confidence in tomorrow. Electricity gave us the opportunity to use the radio, but took away a lot of time, which is wasted on consuming information noise, which often upsets the unstable psyche. For me, the lack of electricity is the opportunity to sleep, read and listen to the radio. Unfortunately, people bought a lot of batteries and converters and the noise when the electricity is turned off is sometimes even greater than before. However, for residents of new houses without gas and more than 5 stories high, the lack of electricity means the absence of heating and elevators. Today, new schedules were published, according to which there will be no electricity for 7 hours a day.
Yesterday morning I heard a loud noise that sounded like either an airplane or a very strong wind. Later, the Kyiv City State Administration reported that the strange hum that the city residents heard was technological noise and was associated with the operation of a large heat source. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/316078-v-kgga-obyasnili-chto-za-strannyy-shum-slyshali-utrom-kievlyane
They could have warned about this in advance!
Not reading the news is also impossible, although each piece of news needs to be given the opportunity to live for at least a couple of days. Not all information can withstand the test of even one day.
Yesterday Italy, Spain and Greece follow US in closing Kyiv embassies over attack fears. The US embassy earlier said it had received “specific information” of a potential significant air attack and would be closed. Some people linked this to the fact that Ukraine has fired UK-made Storm Shadow missiles into russia for the first time since 2022. US and Ukrainian officials have confirmed Kyiv employed US-made Atacms missiles to strike targets within russia.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/nov/20/russia-ukraine-war-live-biden-us-weapons-missiles-putin-nuclear
President Biden’s decision to provide anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, and allow the use of long-range missiles on russian territory comes as the russian military is accelerating its gains along the front line.
Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows that russia has gained almost six times as much territory in 2024 as it did in 2023, and is advancing towards key Ukrainian logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region. The ISW data shows Moscow’s forces have seized around 2,700 sq km of Ukrainian territory so far this year, compared with just 465 sq km in the whole of 2023, a near six-fold increase. More than 1000 sq km was taken between 1 September and 3 November, suggesting the push accelerated in recent months. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0dpdx420lo
This morning began with snow and a discussion of the attack on the Dnipro using an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time in the war. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/rankovij-obstril-ukrajini-u-dnipri-poshkodzheno-promislovij-objekt-i-viniklo-dvi-pozhezhi.html
President vladimir pooteen says this morning's attack in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro was carried out with a "new conventional intermediate range" missile, it was codenamed Oreshnik. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c20726y20kvt
This missile can carry nuclear warheads and reach Europe and is apparently a demonstration. This missile was not intercepted, which speaks to the state of the air defense in Dnipro. Along with yesterday's near-panic over the news of closed embassies, this is also clearly a psychological attack on the population. The Embassy of Kazakhstan in Ukraine advised its citizens to avoid zones of active hostilities or leave the country completely. https://tsn.ua/politika/posolstvo-kazahstanu-v-ukrayini-zaklikalo-svoyih-gromadyan-zalishiti-krayinu-2705586.html
I am more worried about Kate losing consciousness yesterday. Maryna still hasn't figured out what the main reason was. I think it was because of the stress and overload at the lyceum. The same thing often happened to me at school. Probably the children inherited all the health problems that we both had.
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Wlad, I’m very sorry and concerned to hear of Kate’s spell of unconsciousness. Best wishes that the doctors can rule out anything serious, and that it doesn’t happen again
I hope that your important meeting went well.
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Wlad, I’m very sorry and concerned to hear of Kate’s spell of unconsciousness. Best wishes that the doctors can rule out anything serious, and that it doesn’t happen again
I hope that your important meeting went well.
It was a good meeting with very interesting people. One of the bonuses of my position is that I communicate with serious businessmen, and there is always something to learn from these people. And since I am not constrained by a pre-approved strategy, but on the contrary, I must develop it after familiarizing myself with the situation, this allows me to fully reveal my potential and do something new every time.
I noticed that I devote a lot of time to self-study. Every week I read another book on management and gradually change the organization of my department's work and increase its efficiency. Despite the limited human resources, I still see opportunities for process optimization. However, for the third month now I have three open vacancies for lawyers.
I try to discuss my thoughts and acquired knowledge with Kate every week, because her main task now is to organize herself, learn to correctly distribute priorities and workload. We learn together - to manage ourselves and others.
She is already feeling better, but her fainting was an important warning. On the one hand, I am glad that she is so keen on her studies, and on the other hand, it should not harm her health. But I will say honestly - I am very pleased that I can discuss the concepts of ancient Greek philosophers or some historical events with her for hours. I must say that at her age I did not know even half of what she knows, and her curriculum is really very rich.
Seva, in addition to studying at the university and working, is also busy with practice, but also finds time for calls. It's amazing how busy we've all become lately.
Today it was raining and snowing and I decided to stay and work from home. It was the right decision because there was an air raid alarm again. It was quiet in Kyiv, but in Dnipro my colleague witnessed a missile attack. However, in Kyiv the panic was created by the deputies who cancelled the parliament session today because of the threat of a missile strike. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/316247-zasedanie-verkhovnoy-rady-otmenili-iz-za-ugrozy-raketnogo-udara
I also use power outages to relax, read books or listen to the radio. Today I made some interesting QSO with USA, Greenland, UK and France.
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Hello Wlad, glad to hear your work is going so well and is stimulating - very important for a person with an active intellectual life! As others have said, I'm sorry to hear that Kate had a fainting spell but I do know from experience that fainting is one way that some people deal with overload and/or stress.
Glad we finally relented and loosened up the limitations on the ATACMS, somewhat. Putin's ICBM shot may have been meant to show the world that he still has some that work. There is a lot of speculation and debate about whether Putin's nuclear arsenal is what he claims it to be... and he's threatened nuclear war approximately 41 times since the war's start. This video is one example of such speculation: https://youtu.be/iId3y9JtTbs?si=D6k8dZBIiG0Eozr8 (https://youtu.be/iId3y9JtTbs?si=D6k8dZBIiG0Eozr8)
3 weeks ago my XYL fell outside and broke her hip, and worse yet, caused a chronically very painful pinch of a nerve where it exits the spine, complete with one operation on the hip and two more hospital stays trying to manage pain. So I have been distracted caring for her and everything else here on the farm. But I have still been reading this forum.
I really look forward to the day when western leaders get fed up with tiptoeing around Putin and his threats, and really unleash the full gamut of conventional weapons against Russian military targets, to end this thing. With the change in leadership that is occurring in Europe and the US, there is hope of that; although many are pessimistic, I am not.
73!
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Hi Braden!
I am so sorry that this misfortune happened to your wife! My prayers and best wishes to her! She is so lucky to have you! I also want to thank you again for your support!
Today, while I was talking to Colin, he got a call from his neighbor, whose window was damaged by a strong wind. She is 85 years old and lives completely alone. At least she can call Colin. I can tell you that living alone when you are in poor health or very old is a great stress and challenge. I have already noticed that I can hold on from Monday to Friday, but on Saturday all the fatigue and stress take their toll. Today, despite the absence of air raid sirens, I slept very poorly and felt unwell all day.
I like my job, but when it starts to dream, it is too much. I think my boss would be happy with such involvement, but I will not tell him about it.
As for foreign policy and the outcome of the war, I remain of the opinion that nothing depends on Ukraine for a long time (well, at least since the time when the authorities decided, instead of preparing for war, to see the peace in pooteen's eyes and to demined the borders with the russians, and instead of actively and effectively using their own resources, to continue theft and corruption and only ask for foreign help) and as in that joke about the police advice to a rape victim - all it can do is relax and enjoy herself.
As long as any escalation takes place on Ukrainian territory and not very far from the front line on russian territory, it is just part of the bargaining and preparation for agreements. Unlike the Biden administration, Trump shows no desire to continue the war, so it will most likely end soon. Unfortunately, neither Biden nor Trump set the goal of defeating russia.
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Wlad,
I read every post and digest the words. . .
I feel a sense, strongly. I won't expand on what this sense is. But in some way, I allow my spirit to float aloft, looking down, up, around, forward and backwards--and observe. I think it's amazing that you mention dreaming about work. We share so many traits that sometimes, it unnerves me.
Many years ago, I was put in charge of running a complex military computer system. For the first few weeks, I felt like a child in a nuclear plant. Alarms would sound and I had to take immediate action. I was so new, and so was this massive computer system. I always felt like an interloper .... Then I would retire and have dreams about it all. When my morning alarm would chime, in my dream, I would be alerted to another emergency I had to handle. In a way, I could not leave work, not even to sleep! I hope this will soon pass for you, and you can escape in those hours of slumber and enjoy good rest.
The big bomb cyclone came ashore and unleashed it's power on my county. Unlike the bomb cyclone of 2020, this one held wind only to the south. It was predicted to last about 4 hours, but that isn't what happened. It started very early, by 10AM local time. By 2PM my youngest cat, Obi, came in and was the last to admit outside isn't fun now. I closed the cat door and the storm grew into the night and on to the next morning. The odd thing is that the rain didn't come with it, it waited, then fell and fell and fell. Only thing that happened here was my HEX beam spun on the mast again and now only can point due south or west :( Then the flooding started. We were all very lucky in that we didn't take any chances. The ranchers moved their livestock to higher ground, people evacuated to higher ground. Now it is time for the water to find the rivers and go back to the sea. We fared very well this time, here.
Two brides to worry about now. Your wife and Brady's wife. I think this is why we stay so grounded, connected to our loved ones. Our happiness is their good health, our sorrow is . . . I wish them the best in their recuperation.
I have no ambitions on your nor mine political leadership. I reiterate, I am floating, observing.
Happiness is a warm box. The box that my computer equipment was shipped in is still on the floor. Mr Boots thinks it is PURRRRRRRRFECT :) Now I don't have any challenges to sit in my own chair! Today I took all my recycle stuff and looked at the box on the floor...... It is still here, and Mr Boot's is now having a purfect cat nap in it. Happiness is :)
Today I learned that Alice had died. Alice was a friend of a musician who wrote a song about being arrested for throwing garbage over a cliff. It became the most popular antiwar song about Vietnam. She was a real person, the the events were also real and I doubt most Americans actually know that about that most famous song. A song that has become so important here in USA, that it is now added to the library of congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice%27s_Restaurant
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m57gzA2JCcM
This song has become a yearly pilgrimage for "Thanks Giving" in the USA, and likely, a lot of other countries too. The sub-titles aren't perfect, but mostly work.
Thank god for that lady!
Wlad, Gene, and all, I do wish you all well. In the mean time, I'm going to listen to Alice's Restaurant Massacree :)
73
Jaye
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Brady, I’m so sorry to hear about your wife’s accident and the pain she is in. I hope that will be resolved soon, and without more surgery. Please let us know how she is doing.
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Drones shot down again at night and two air raid sirens during the day, but no power outages today. Looks like I got some rest. Let's see what next week brings.
Currently, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, has a “main task” — reducing bureaucracy in the army, Zelensky said. “This is very important. An officer must see a soldier. A general who has not been in the trench is not a general for me, despite his experience. With all due respect, today the most difficult situation is on the front line, in the trench. Generals should be in the trenches. This is what war is like.” https://hromadske.ua/suspilstvo/235070-heneraly-maiut-buty-v-okopakh-prezydent-prokomentuvav-zminy-pidkhodiv-do-upravlinnia-v-zsu?traffic_source=ukr.net
Another masterpiece of military art and management from the greatest leader of our time. However, after sending doctors and air defense personnel into the trenches, this seems like a consistent decision.
Energy ‘corruption’ leaves Ukrainians facing a deadly freeze. Kyiv’s failure to build bunkers for electricity substations that protect them from russian airstrikes has left the country vulnerable before the winter. https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/energy-corruption-leaves-ukrainians-facing-a-deadly-freeze-9b9tb7gwx
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Wlad, Gene, and all, I do wish you all well.
Your post, Jaye, it reads like a good fiction from a really good writer but it's the truth - that's what impressing me a lot. Have a good day and see ya.
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The weather is changing again, I haven't slept enough and my head hurts. But even if you stay home, there's no less work to do.
Nightly drone attacks and power outages have become the order of the day again. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-ataka-droniv-kyiv-poraneni/33217386.html
Being immersed in work leaves little time to realize that another week has passed. Chaos is almost impossible to conquer. After two weeks of preparation and negotiations and approval of the project plan, the client again changes the very essence of the task and you start over. However, for a snail crawling up the slope of Mount Fuji, the bustle of life does not prevent it from persistently pursuing its spiritual goal, even if it never physically gets halfway to the top of the mountain. But from above, you can see some amazing things happening around you.
An interdepartmental commission is investigating the problem of supplying low-quality 120-mm mines to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which either did not reach the enemy or did not explode at all. https://mod.gov.ua/news/prichini-neshtatnogo-spraczyuvannya-120-milimetrovih-min-rozsliduye-mizhvidomcha-komisiya
A member of the parliamentary defense committee, MP from the pro-government Servants of the People party, Fedir Venislavsky, stated that the defect that was made was discovered because the air temperature decreased and the humidity increased. That is, this became the trigger that made it possible to find out that there were certain problems. This defect is not critical for the security and defense sector.
Videos of soldiers attempting to use these mines suggest otherwise.
https://espreso.tv/viyna-z-rosiyeyu-sistemna-problema-zhurnalist-butusov-zayaviv-shcho-na-front-postachayutsya-neyakisni-mini
But apparently mines are not the most important thing in this country, given the government's decision to replace green traffic lights with emerald. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/zeleniy-stane-smaragdovim-k-zminyatsya-svitlofori-1732704180.html
Apparently, this seemed like a convenient reason to take a little more money from the budget, but after a public outcry, an explanation followed that these changes would only apply to traffic lights that would be installed in the future.
There are also good jokes about how even traffic lights don't want to be the same color as the authorities. Zelensky and his party Servant of the People went to the elections under the color green, which is consonant with the future president's surname in Ukrainian. In Ukraine, they are called Zelens (Greens). Evil jokes say that the color green had previously been reserved for Islamic militants, who also didn't want to be associated with them.
Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak said that the Cabinet of Ministers has decided to withdraw 3.8 billion hryvnias from demining and business support programs in favor of a national cashback and a one-time payment of 1,000 hryvnias (about 24 US dollars) under the winter "e-Support" program. https://zn.ua/ukr/UKRAINE/nardep-kabimn-virishiv-zabrati-hroshi-z-prohram-pidtrimki-biznesu-ta-rozminuvannja-na-keshbek-ta-tisjachu-zelenskoho.html This populist program was recently presented by the President, apparently to gain political support from poor people.
Therefore, I am not sure of the exact figures, but I have no doubt that some of the internal refugees were forced to return to the occupation or the war zone due to difficulties with housing and employment. At least they have some kind of housing there. Even if the refugee is a young and healthy person, finding housing and a job sufficient to rent it and still have something to eat is a difficult task. Not to mention the elderly, single people, women with children. They say that the state will no longer pay even support in the amount of 50 US dollars per month. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c79z0rdqx53o
Data from ualosses, a website, suggest that at least 60,435 soldiers have died since 2022. Unlike other sources, ualosses catalogues the names and ages of the dead, making it possible to calculate casualties by age group and as a percentage of the male population. (Although some women serve on the front lines, the vast majority of fighters are men.)
The figures suggest that more than 0.5% of Ukraine’s pre-war population of men of fighting age (18-49-year-olds) have been killed. The data from ualosses are not comprehensive and not all soldiers’ ages are known. The actual share of men who have died in the war is higher. The share of those too injured to keep fighting is even greater: assuming that six to eight Ukrainian soldiers are severely wounded for every one who is killed in battle, nearly one in 20 men of fighting age is dead or too wounded to fight on. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/11/26/how-many-ukrainian-soldiers-have-died
Ukraine will not hinder Poles in the search and exhumation of victims of the Volyn tragedy. In turn, Poland will support Ukraine's aspirations to join the EU. This was stated by Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski at a press conference following a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Sybiga. https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2024-11-26/deklaracja-ukrainy-ws-wolynia-nie-ma-zadnych-przeszkod/
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The air alarm was on all night until 9am all over Ukraine and the missile attack was one of the biggest in three years. Again, major damage was caused to the power grid all over the country and in Kyiv there was only 3 hours of electricity during the day. It was turned on again in the evening, but I don’t know how long it will last. However, I have time to charge my laptop and phones, there is water and heat. Some cities may be without electricity for several days. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c4ngn290zr5t
With each massive air strike, the enemy better calculates our capabilities and modernizes its missiles, making it more difficult to work, but the Ukrainian Air Force is doing its best to counteract this, said Oleksandr Shymansky, commander of the anti-aircraft missile brigade. https://www.unian.ua/war/komandir-zenitnikiv-poyasniv-chomu-rosiyski-raketi-staye-dedali-vazhche-zbivati-12835149.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
But I continue to believe that our air defense is one of the best in the world.
President Joe Biden’s administration is urging Ukraine to quickly increase the size of its military by drafting more troops and revamping its mobilization laws to allow for the conscription of those as young as 18.
A senior Biden administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private consultations, said that the outgoing Democratic administration wants Ukraine to lower the mobilization age to 18 from the current age of 25 to expand the pool of fighting-age men available to help a badly outnumbered Ukraine in its nearly three-year-old war with russia.
The official said “the pure math” of Ukraine’s situation now is that it needs more troops in the fight. https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-biden-draft-08e3bad195585b7c3d9662819cc5618f
Ukrainian authorities object, saying there are not enough weapons even for the soldiers already fighting. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c5yg1wnyw27o
President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Keith Kellogg, a former national security adviser and retired lieutenant general in the US military, to be special envoy to Ukraine and russia in his second administration. Kellogg's ideas for how to do this have been outlined in a research paper published by the America First Policy Institute, a pro-Trump think thank.
In the document, published in April, Kellogg advocated for "a formal US policy to seek a ceasefire and negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict". He proposed that Ukraine would only get further US aid if Kyiv participated in peace talks with Moscow, but also suggested that if Moscow refused to take part, Washington would then give Kyiv more aid. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c14l6dl5y4go
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Hello everyone, and thank you all for the well wishes for me and my XYL, Sharon. I've been unable to get to the forum lately as there have been many distractions, as you might imagine. Sharon's hip is healing well, she has even been able to make it to the horse stable by herself and feed the horses a few times, using a combination of a walker and our ATV. The main issue is the back pain which keeps her in pain at night and unable to get much sleep, so she sleeps some during the day. We are unable to get into a neurosurgeon for consultation until January 10th, as specialists are in very short supply in the US ever since Covid (many decided to retire at that time). This all has been hard, but I'm sure it is nothing nearly as hard as being in a country that is being bombarded by a renegade country!
Two things strike me as I catch up on the recent posts, here:
1. The Poles are the real leaders of Europe, if leadership is measured by something other than GDP or population. As I watch DW News at night I am constantly amazed how bold the Poles are in defending freedom, and how that contrasts with the UK, France, and Germany, who fancy themselves to be Europe's leaders.
2. I continue to be optimistic that a change of leadership in the USA will break the meat grinder stalemate that we've been in for years, now, in favor of an acceptable and, importantly, a lasting peace.
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Today is gloomy weather. Temperature around zero and fog. Everything looks bleak.
However, all night and today there was no power outage and no air attacks. I have heat, water and food and it is terrible that I am happy to have such simple things. However, maybe this is just a short break.
I spent the whole day drinking tea and doing nothing except talking on the radio with Colin G3ZAF, Andy M0CFO and Phil G8KBI for about an hour.
Yesterday I felt so bad again that I thought I wouldn’t make it to the office. I know all the hospitals on the way to the office.
I got off one stop early, walked through the park and felt better. The girls in the office treated me to tangerines and apparently shared their energy. We discussed work issues and soon I went back.
After the attacks on the energy sector last week, there was about six hours of electricity a day. Not much, but enough for me. People in multi-story buildings, who are left without heat, water and elevators during power outages, suffer much more. It turned out that living in an old house with gas is better than in a new one. The only good thing is that last month I only consumed 63 kW of electricity.
The previous nights, everyone had little opportunity to sleep. Last night, for example, when air defense trying to shoot down one of the drones, it began to descend in the direction of my house. Looking out the window at this bright air battle was quite unpleasant and disturbing, but the drone flew over my house and fell in the neighboring area. There it exploded and damaged a children's hospital. Fortunately, it was at night and no one was hurt. Usually there are a lot of people with children there. https://www.instagram.com/reel/DC8WPa2IHgf/?igsh=dGJ0MXlqNW1wdDZu
Yesterday I got a call from a friend from Kharkiv. There have been several air strikes around his house recently and no one knows if the next bomb will hit his house. All the universities in the city have switched to distance learning and his daughter is trying to get an education from home. He himself has not left the house for a long time because man hunters are everywhere, at checkpoints people are taken from cars, which then stand abandoned on the road.
Also, the latest changes in legislation are changing the rules of the game again and many will lose their reservations, which will further reduce the number of people willing to work officially, including at critical infrastructure facilities or in the defense industry. The main thing is that all government employees and police are reliably protected from the possibility of ending up at the front. It's sad and funny when young and healthy men catch old and sick people to send them to the front in their place.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has urged his NATO counterparts to issue an invitation to Kyiv at a meeting in Brussels next week to join the Western military alliance, according to the text of a letter seen by Reuters on Friday. The letter reflects Ukraine's renewed push to secure an invitation to join NATO, which is part of a "victory plan" outlined last month by President Volodymyr Zelensky to end the war triggered by russia's 2022 invasion. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-asks-nato-membership-invite-next-week-letter-shows-2024-11-29/
Zelensky suggests 'hot phase' of Ukraine war could end in return for NATO membership if offered - even if seized land isn't returned immediately. https://news.sky.com/story/zelenskyy-suggests-hes-prepared-to-end-ukraine-war-in-return-for-nato-membership-even-if-russia-doesnt-immediately-return-seized-land-13263085
That's how simple it is.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief announced an offensive. https://www.unian.ua/war/sirskiy-anonsuvav-nastup-zsu-nardep-ociniv-mozhlivosti-ukrajini-12836502.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news Probably so that, like last time, the russians would better prepare for it.
Rebel forces in Syria have taken control of the "majority" of the country's second-largest city, Aleppo, according to the UK-based monitoring group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly27r5p0yno
Some people hope that the russians will be forced to move some resources from Ukraine to Syria, but I don't believe it.
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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Kyiv for a surprise visit on the morning of December 2. He announced new arms deliveries to Ukraine worth 650 million euros, and German media reports say the topic of the visit will be peace negotiations. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cwyd4704q8vo
By appointing Keith Kellogg as his special envoy to Ukraine, Donald Trump has also chosen a very specific, pre-announced plan for the thorniest foreign policy issue on his plate. In short, a ceasefire will freeze the frontlines and both sides will be forced to the negotiating table. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/29/europe/trump-new-ukraine-envoy-analysis-intl?cid=ios_app
Despite this, Poland is actively building fortifications on the border with Ukraine and Belarus. https://polskieradio24.pl/artykul/3452627,tusk-na-budowie-tarczy-wschod-to-inwestycja-w-pokoj
In the meantime, drones continue to attack Ukraine every night. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/nichna-ataka-rf-kiyiv-sili-oboroni-zneshkodili-1733116740.html
Everything sped up again. Before the New Year, there was more work, and less electricity again. However, the office has a large battery and it lasts for several hours of work.
Today the girls brought me food and fed me when I was too busy working at lunchtime. I have a great team.
I am seriously interested in the work and, having become a full member of the management of our large company, I devote a lot of time to improving my qualifications and attending meetings that the top management holds with us. They are very interesting and there is something to learn from extraordinary people who share their experience. Also, all together we study the latest achievements and plan to implement management automation systems.
Kate began to get excellent grades and her pessimism about her ability to continue her studies at the lyceum seemed to have been replaced by moderate optimism.
It seems that by that new year we had strengthened our positions despite all external obstacles. Obviously God helps those who work hard. I always feel His support.
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Wlad,
Congratulations on your rapid progress in the company, and the obvious respect that you’ve earned there! It must also be very satisfying to see Kate’s growth of maturity and her achievements in the Lyceum. Despite the war you’ve all found ways to excel, and I’m very happy for you!
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Wlad,
Congratulations on your rapid progress in the company, and the obvious respect that you’ve earned there! It must also be very satisfying to see Kate’s growth of maturity and her achievements in the Lyceum. Despite the war you’ve all found ways to excel, and I’m very happy for you!
Thank you my friend!
There are two models of behavior. You do everything in your power to change something, or you do nothing, blaming everyone around you for your problems. I've never heard of those who only complain succeed. The first way also does not guarantee success, but in the process you are distracted from the problems and do not suffer as much.
Ecclesiastes 9:7-9
7 Go, eat your food with gladness, and drink your wine with a joyful heart, for God has already approved what you do.
8 Always be clothed in white, and always anoint your head with oil.
9 Enjoy life with your wife, whom you love, all the days of this meaningless life that God has given you under the sun-all your meaningless days. For this is your lot in life and in your toilsome labor under the sun.
The weather changes or I'm exhausted, but it's increasingly difficult to maintain a balance between workload and well-being. But before the New Year, there will be even more work. Everyone wants to finish or, on the contrary, launch more projects. Many feel tired. Some even say they use a cold as an opportunity to rest. But I don't want to get sick.
Meanwhile, the world sometimes experiences unexpected events, such as the resumption of fighting in Syria or the introduction of martial law in South Korea https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0lgw1pw5zpo , which can have an unpredictable impact on the situation in Ukraine. But the most unpredictable, or more precisely "flexible", is Ukraine itself.
Ukraine does not insist on its immediate accession to NATO, taking into account the position of individual member states, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga said in a conversation with journalists on the sidelines of the NATO ministerial meeting. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/12/4/7199881/
"An invitation for Ukraine to join Nato is a necessary thing for our survival," said Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday, December 1, as he welcomed the new European foreign minister, Kaja Kallas, and the new president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, visiting Kyiv on the first day of their terms of office. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/12/03/zelensky-pleads-for-ukraine-nato-membership-europeans-look-for-another-solution_6735017_4.html
Calin Georgescu, the fringe nationalist politician leading the presidential race in Romania, has told the BBC that he would end all support for Ukraine if elected. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg6l06ldpqo
Some people hated the fact that it was not the Ukrainian representative to the UN, not the Minister of Foreign Affairs or his deputies, but the adviser to the Head of the President's office who spoke at the UN. I think this is not as important as the topic of her report on Ukrainian children abducted by russia. In a strange scenario russian federation representative was seem smiling on camera when Dariia Zarivna, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President and Chief Operating Officer of Bring Kids Back UA, presented a report to the UN Security Council on systematic gross violations of Ukrainian children's rights: murders, sexual violence, illegal adoptions, and militarization of young Ukrainians committed by russia during its full-scale aggression against Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNQVvJlWkxU
In Ukraine, it will be prohibited to transfer people with medical education to the infantry - President Volodymyr Zelensky has implemented a corresponding decision of the National Security and Defense Council. https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/8172024-53005
russian troops are trying to break through the defenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along virtually the entire front in Donbas. The situation is critical in several areas. But unlike the previous "meat assaults", now during the offensive the russian army uses small groups, which often move on motorcycles and even electric scooters. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/clykr3g3ldjo
The Turkish company that won the tender for the repair of the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant is connected to a Latvian citizen who is involved in money laundering on Russian crypto exchanges. The Latvian's malicious activities were discovered by the US Treasury Department, which imposed sanctions on him and arrested the companies. The Financial Times (FT) wrote about the details of the fraud of the sanctioned entrepreneur and the reaction of Ukrhydroenergo PJSC. https://www.ft.com/content/57a3fef0-64aa-4dd5-a1dd-6c31c1386de7
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Sharon's hip is healing well
May she get well soon.
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Thank you. We have just checked into the hospital again for her back injury (hip is healing, back is not and causing considerable pain during nights). Hoping to get to a neurosurgeon, as they are in short supply. That's all I know at this point.
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Looks like we have a really good spine surgeon's attention, finally. He speaks Ukrainian, so I'm sure he must be good! Seems very sharp and attentive.
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Looks like we have a really good spine surgeon's attention, finally. He speaks Ukrainian, so I'm sure he must be good! Seems very sharp and attentive.
Excellent!
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Looks like we have a really good spine surgeon's attention, finally. He speaks Ukrainian, so I'm sure he must be good! Seems very sharp and attentive.
Considering that not even all Ukrainians know Ukrainian, I doubt that he studied it specially. I wish everything to be fine and a speedy recovery to Sharon.
Maryna is going to celebrate Christmas with the children and come to me for the New Year. Maybe we'll have a little celebration in the office.
Although the feelings are of course very contradictory. Despite the interesting job I have been working at for four months now and the relative well-being in Kyiv, the situation at the front remains difficult, and the situation in Syria reminded me that everything can change radically in a week. Assad is already in Moscow. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t This is very similar to the escape from Ukraine of former President Yanukovych in 2014. Now russia is the only country in which there are three "legitimate" presidents.
Some are happy and hope that russia will fall apart or at least pooteen's regime will collapse, some are afraid that the remnants of the russian army from Syria will be transferred to Ukraine. I am more afraid that China will be forced to actively react to the situation and I do not know how. As Murphy's law says "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong."
Some 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since russia's full-scale invasion began, Volodymyr Zelensky has said in a rare admission of the extent of the nation's casualties. In a post on social media, the Ukrainian president said 370,000 injuries had been reported, though this figure included soldiers who had been hurt more than once and some of the injuries were said to be minor.
He also claimed that 198,000 russian soldiers had been killed and a further 550,000 wounded. The Ukrainian president is thought to have been compelled to make the admission after incoming US President-elect Donald Trump wrote on social media that Ukraine had "ridiculously lost" 400,000 soldiers, while close to 600,000 russians had been killed or wounded. Trump did not state where these figures were from. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yv75nydy3o
I am not inclined to believe in any figures. Especially since they do not reflect the qualitative component of losses. While russia was disposing of scum and criminals, Ukraine was losing its best people. Also, combat losses do not reflect the total losses of people, some of whom left Ukraine, while others remained in the occupied territories, and at the expense of whom russia fully compensated for all its losses.
Zelensky once again did not miss the opportunity to demonstrate a breach of etiquette. His fashion sense was ripped Saturday for the casual gear he wore to the formal reopening of the Notre Dame cathedral in Paris.
The Ukrainian leader chose a rugged black sweatshirt, black slacks and brown combat boots for both the ceremony and his meeting beforehand with President-elect Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron at Élysée Palace.
Zelensky’s military sweatshirt sported a symbol similar to the official emblem for the Ukraine Armed Forces, which he had emblazoned on a T-shirt he wore in 2022 when asking the U.S. Congress for more help fighting off russian invaders.
Trump advisor Roger Stone said the attire was “disrespectful to the American people”. “He can’t afford a suit? He wore a suit and tie to the World Economic Forum event, but can’t wear one to address a joint session of Congress or to meet the President-elect of the United States?” he told The Post. https://nypost.com/2024/12/07/us-news/zelensky-greets-trump-in-sweatshirt-and-boots-disrespectful/
However, he insults the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian army even more by dressing in imitation of a military uniform, although earlier he evaded military service. At the same time, Ukrainian legislation prohibits civilians from wearing military uniforms, including during martial law. I think this is another reminder that we are dealing with just an actor who plays the president.
Due to increased threats from russian missiles and drones targeting Ukraine’s critical civilian infrastructure, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv today urges U.S. citizens to exercise heightened caution. All U.S. citizens should follow Ukrainian government alerts regarding air attacks and monitor a reliable “air alert” app on your mobile phone. U.S. citizens should abide by all government curfews and quickly follow instructions and seek shelter during air alerts. https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kyiv-ukraine-december-8-2024/
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Fortunately, yesterday's warning from the US embassy about an air attack was not confirmed and Kyiv was calm. Perhaps the russians are too busy evacuating their troops from Syria. Undoubtedly, Turkey plays a major role in this exodus of russians, whose president Erdogan poorly hides his desire to restore the Ottoman Empire. Ukraine remains inexorably vulnerable to such a neighborhood. Therefore, I do not rule out that Turkey may lay claim to Crimea, and the appointment of a Tatar with connections to Turkey as the Minister of Defense of Ukraine was not accidental.
President-elect Donald Trump said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is ready for “peace” as he dished on his meetings with world leaders — and Jill Biden — during his trip to Paris for the reopening of Notre Dame. The incoming president revealed Sunday details of his conversations with world leaders on his first trip abroad since winning a second term, including a trilateral meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and Zelensky. “He wants to make peace,” Trump told The Post in a phone interview. “That’s new. “He wants to have a cease-fire,” he added. “He wants to make peace. We didn’t talk about the details. He thinks it’s time, and [russian President Vladimir] pooteen should think it’s time because he’s lost — when you lose 700,000 people, it’s time. It’s not going to end until there’s a peace.” He said he spoke to Zelensky about how to end the bloody conflict that has been raging since 2022. https://nypost.com/2024/12/08/us-news/trump-says-zelensky-is-ready-for-peace-as-he-dishes-to-post-on-meetings-with-world-leaders-and-jill-biden/
Trump also says Ukraine should ‘probably’ prepare to receive less aid from U.S. https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/trump-says-ukraine-should-probably-prepare-to-receive-less-aid-from-u-s-226493509712
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has approved the terms of an agreement that provides for a 40-year loan from the US Federal Financing Bank (FFB) for up to $20 billion. This loan is part of the G7 initiative, which provides for the allocation of $50 billion to Ukraine from the proceeds of frozen russian assets. The loan funds will be directed to the Facilitation of Resources to Invest in Strengthening Ukraine Financial Intermediary Fund, which was established by the World Bank on October 10, 2024.
The implementation of this agreement involves the conclusion of several key agreements. In particular, Ukraine, as a borrower, signs a Certificate Purchase Agreement with the Federal Financing Bank (FFB) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). In addition, a Loan Guarantee and Repayment Agreement is concluded between Ukraine and USAID. To formalize the obligations, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, on behalf of the state, issues a Certificate of Indebtedness in favor of FFB, which is secured by a USAID guarantee.
The loan amount has an interest rate of 1.3% per annum plus the average current rate on one-year US Treasury bonds. Repayment of the principal amount and payment of interest are planned to be made at the expense of income received from frozen assets of the russian federation. https://www.blackseanews.net/read/225141
Police officers have their own functions of maintaining law and order. At the same time, employees of mobilization centers can perform their mobilization tasks without the police, said Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/ttsk-mozhut-vikonuvati-zavdannya-z-mobilizatsiyi-bez-politsiyi-klimenko Well, it is very indicative that the police are starting to distance themselves from mobilization.
The Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine has announced a reduction in the number of medical universities. Medical students should receive basic higher education at classical universities, and only after that study at powerful medical faculties. This was stated by Deputy Minister of Education and Science of Ukraine Mykhailo Vynnytsky. https://news.telegraf.com.ua/ukr/ukraina/2024-12-09/5889544-vrachey-stanet-menshe-v-ukraine-planiruyut-umenshit-kolichestvo-meditsinskikh-vuzov?traffic_source=ukr.net
Apparently they decided that weak and sick Ukrainians should die, and healthy ones don't need doctors. I was very lucky that I found myself in the hands of good specialists who received a real education.
Today I received a call from another arrhythmologist who is writing a scientific paper and who was interested in the results of my surgery. In my operation they used a new technique and there are only about 30 people like me. I sent him the latest research. This was an opportunity to talk to my surgeon again. He seems to be proud of his work. I am becoming famous in narrow circles of arrhythmologists)
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I have been at the hospital the past few days and missed a lot, here. (I don't want to distract from Ukraine, but Sharon's surgery to correct sciatic pain was very successful, thanks to all for your prayers. It turns out the neurosurgeon is Latvian, and is considered to be world-class. He is also a very friendly and humble young man, breaking the stereotype of neurosurgeons that many have).
Wlad, I had always assumed that Zelensky dresses in his trademark fatigues as a reminder to world leaders that he is engaged in a war. Stone seems to be a very odd duck. Saudi leaders often dress in desert garb when they travel to formal events, not a western "suit." Stone should find other things to focus on of a substantial nature.
Jill Biden and Trump having a positive interaction at Notre Dame got some press over here, too. Some speculate that the Bidens are not as upset with Trump, as they are with the DNC for replacing Joe Biden as the party nominee. Also, speculation about why Joe couldn't attend when he had nothing on his schedule. I think the answer to that is fairly obvious, as he's barely functioning and it's not clear who is functioning for him. No one (including me) knows the answers to any of these speculations and questions. But they're fun to speculate about, I suppose.
I am surprised that the deaths on the Ukrainian side are "only" 40,000, at the same time I cannot comprehend how much heartache is created by those deaths. I had been under the impression that the numbers were even higher than that. :-\
Blessings to you and Maryna, as well as to all the readers here.
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Hi Braden!
Thank God everything is getting better with you!
It's great to see that Sharon's health is improving!
I don't believe that a Latvian knows Ukrainian, rather a Ukrainian pretends to be Latvian.
I was listening to a BBC News podcast on my way to the office today and something confused me about the announcer's almost perfect pronunciation. But when he pronounced the name Volodymyr correctly, I understood everything. I have yet to meet a single English-speaking person who can do that.
Lately I have very conflicting feelings. On the one hand, every day is a constant russian offensive, destruction and death. On the other hand, their offensive is slow and Ukraine can hold most of the territories until negotiations begin or active hostilities stop. There is a persistent feeling that the allies will not leave Ukraine like Afghanistan and this is supported by constant infusions of money from Europe. So as always, I hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I am sure that it can always be worse, but everyone has to do something to make it better.
As for the official death toll, I don't believe it, just like the rest of the "official" propaganda. Nobody knows the exact numbers and nobody needs them. The morale of the population is already low, and it will be easier for the budget, from which payments must be made to the relatives of the deceased. Even if you die of a heart attack in a trench, it will not be considered that you were killed. I am not even talking about the fact that the death of a soldier must be confirmed by presenting his body. Unfortunately, modern missiles, bombs and shells often leave nothing behind. And the bodies of those killed during retreat are collected by the russians at best, while Ukraine does not recognize documents and information from that side.
As for appearance, it really matters. And of course, a lot depends on who you are. Etiquette and protocol are not empty words even for representatives of the poorest tribes of Africa, who can walk around barefoot and in feathers at home, but dress accordingly when they go to international meetings. Arabs can afford to wear national clothes because they are proud of their strong and rich countries. I can assure you that sweatshirts and sweatpants in Ukraine are the national clothes of only the marginalized. Even the poorest lawyer has at least one suit in his wardrobe. But in the case of Zelensky, none of this matters, because he is an actor and wears what the director tells him to. His clothes in no way make him a different person. But abroad, people unfamiliar with Ukrainians and their culture judge them by their leader, and I personally am offended that I can be associated with an illiterate, ill-mannered thug.
China’s escalating conflict with the US over trade is now extending to the drones that have become a vital part of Ukraine’s defense. Manufacturers in China recently began limiting sales to the US and Europe of key components used to build unmanned aerial vehicles. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-09/china-is-cutting-off-drone-supplies-critical-to-ukraine-war-effort?srnd=homepage-europe
Today, the russians attacked Zaporizhzhia, at least nine people were killed in the attack, there are injured and under the rubble. At night, rescuers rescued women from under the rubble, who miraculously survived. It is already known that most of the dead are women. According to authorities, 29 people were injured, and several people are under the rubble. As a result of the attack, the premises of a private medical center, cafes, as well as cars around were destroyed. According to preliminary data, 20 residential buildings were damaged. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cp8nvk0zpyzo
At night, units of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine struck an oil depot in the Bryansk region of the russian federation. https://suspilne.media/899797-pozeza-u-bransku-genstab-pidtverdiv-udar-po-naftobazi/
The Biden administration on Wednesday warned that russia may fire another intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine, after what Moscow said were strikes on its territory with US-supplied weapons. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/us-says-russia-may-fire-oreshnick-missile-at-ukraine-in-days
The warning comes as the russian Defense Ministry vowed to respond to Ukraine hitting a military airfield in the southwestern Rostov region with what it says were six US-supplied ATACMS missiles. https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war/minoboroni_rf_zajavilo_scho_udar_atacms_buv_po_aerodromu_v_taganrozi_i_tse_robit_kartinu_sche_tsikavishoju-17428.html
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Brady, I’m relieved and happy that Sharon’s surgery was successful! I hope that her recovery and recuperation will be swift.
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Hi Braden!
Thank God everything is getting better with you!
It's great to see that Sharon's health is improving!
I don't believe that a Latvian knows Ukrainian, rather a Ukrainian pretends to be Latvian.
I was listening to a BBC News podcast on my way to the office today and something confused me about the announcer's almost perfect pronunciation. But when he pronounced the name Volodymyr correctly, I understood everything. I have yet to meet a single English-speaking person who can do that.
Lately I have very conflicting feelings. On the one hand, every day is a constant russian offensive, destruction and death. On the other hand, their offensive is slow and Ukraine can hold most of the territories until negotiations begin or active hostilities stop. There is a persistent feeling that the allies will not leave Ukraine like Afghanistan and this is supported by constant infusions of money from Europe. So as always, I hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I am sure that it can always be worse, but everyone has to do something to make it better.
As for the official death toll, I don't believe it, just like the rest of the "official" propaganda. Nobody knows the exact numbers and nobody needs them. The morale of the population is already low, and it will be easier for the budget, from which payments must be made to the relatives of the deceased. Even if you die of a heart attack in a trench, it will not be considered that you were killed. I am not even talking about the fact that the death of a soldier must be confirmed by presenting his body. Unfortunately, modern missiles, bombs and shells often leave nothing behind. And the bodies of those killed during retreat are collected by the russians at best, while Ukraine does not recognize documents and information from that side.
As for appearance, it really matters. And of course, a lot depends on who you are. Etiquette and protocol are not empty words even for representatives of the poorest tribes of Africa, who can walk around barefoot and in feathers at home, but dress accordingly when they go to international meetings. Arabs can afford to wear national clothes because they are proud of their strong and rich countries. I can assure you that sweatshirts and sweatpants in Ukraine are the national clothes of only the marginalized. Even the poorest lawyer has at least one suit in his wardrobe. But in the case of Zelensky, none of this matters, because he is an actor and wears what the director tells him to. His clothes in no way make him a different person. But abroad, people unfamiliar with Ukrainians and their culture judge them by their leader, and I personally am offended that I can be associated with an illiterate, ill-mannered thug.
China’s escalating conflict with the US over trade is now extending to the drones that have become a vital part of Ukraine’s defense. Manufacturers in China recently began limiting sales to the US and Europe of key components used to build unmanned aerial vehicles. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-09/china-is-cutting-off-drone-supplies-critical-to-ukraine-war-effort?srnd=homepage-europe
Today, the russians attacked Zaporizhzhia, at least nine people were killed in the attack, there are injured and under the rubble. At night, rescuers rescued women from under the rubble, who miraculously survived. It is already known that most of the dead are women. According to authorities, 29 people were injured, and several people are under the rubble. As a result of the attack, the premises of a private medical center, cafes, as well as cars around were destroyed. According to preliminary data, 20 residential buildings were damaged. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cp8nvk0zpyzo
At night, units of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine struck an oil depot in the Bryansk region of the russian federation. https://suspilne.media/899797-pozeza-u-bransku-genstab-pidtverdiv-udar-po-naftobazi/
The Biden administration on Wednesday warned that russia may fire another intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine, after what Moscow said were strikes on its territory with US-supplied weapons. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/us-says-russia-may-fire-oreshnick-missile-at-ukraine-in-days
The warning comes as the russian Defense Ministry vowed to respond to Ukraine hitting a military airfield in the southwestern Rostov region with what it says were six US-supplied ATACMS missiles. https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war/minoboroni_rf_zajavilo_scho_udar_atacms_buv_po_aerodromu_v_taganrozi_i_tse_robit_kartinu_sche_tsikavishoju-17428.html
Thank you Wlad and Bob!
Wlad, as usual you remind me that there is a lot that goes un-perceived or incorrectly perceived about Ukraine, by those of us who don't know the culture.
2025 will be an interesting year, with the certainty of a changing of the leadership not only in Washington and Germany, but also possibly in France.
As far as Trump is concerned, hard to predict what he will do, except that we know his style is to do something bold in order to increase his negotiating leverage, before he does anything. Will he (as an example) station nuclear missiles in Ukraine the next time pooteen threatens nuclear war (as he's done 44 times since the special military operation began)? He might. I'm not predicting that, but it's the kind of thing Trump might do. Biden was ultra cautious and Trump is the opposite - that is my point. So... it will be interesting.
Dear Lord, I pray for this brutal war to be over. Blessings to all of you.
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Looks like we have a really good spine surgeon's attention, finally. He speaks Ukrainian, so I'm sure he must be good! Seems very sharp and attentive.
I keep my fingers crossed.
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He seems to be proud of his work.
So nice to know that, since no one would be proud of anything not exactly good.
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Yesterday, russian occupiers attacked Kyiv with strike drones. The wreckage of one of the drones fell in the center of the capital. https://glavred.net/ukraine/kiev-pod-atakoy-dronov-v-centre-stolicy-zafiksirovano-padenie-oblomkov-bpla-mer-10622099.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
The temperature today dropped to -10C and in the morning russia launched a massive missile strike on Ukraine with missiles from Tu-95MS bombers, as well as Calibers from the Black Sea and Daggers from MiG-31s. The Shaheds have been attacking all of Ukraine since the evening.
The regions are reporting the consequences of the shelling - critical infrastructure, transport and energy in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and other regions were hit.
5 out of 9 power units at Ukrainian nuclear power plants reduced their capacity due to the attack. The attack seriously damaged the equipment of several thermal power plants.
russia targeted energy systems, transport networks and key facilities across the country, said US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink in X. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c9dpjweqlwxo
Because of this, there was no electricity for most of the day today, but there is still water and heating.
On December 12, 2024, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee and President of China, met with Dmitry Medvedev, Chairman of the United russia Party of russia, at the Great Hall of the People.
Xi Jinping said that over the past 75 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and russia, the two countries have worked together to embark on a new path of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation between major countries and neighboring countries, setting an example for new international relations and relations between major neighboring countries. China is willing to strengthen the docking of development strategies with russia, tap the endogenous driving force of cooperation between the two countries, and continuously benefit the two countries and their peoples.
Xi Jinping said that on the issue of the Ukrainian crisis, China has repeatedly stressed the need to adhere to the three principles of "no spillover of the battlefield, no escalation of the war, and no fanning the flames" to promote the easing of the situation as soon as possible. China will continue to adhere to its consistent position and work with the international community to create favorable conditions for a political solution to the crisis. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/zyxw/202412/t20241212_11543413.shtml
russia's state oil firm Rosneft (ROSN.MM), opens new tab has agreed to supply nearly 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude to Indian private refiner Reliance (RELI.NS), opens new tab in the biggest ever energy deal between the two countries. The 10-year agreement amounts to 0.5% of global supply and is worth roughly $13 billion a year at today's prices. It would further cement energy relations between India and russia, which is under heavy Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rosneft-reliance-agree-biggest-ever-india-russia-oil-supply-deal-sources-say-2024-12-12/
All Ukrainian Osa anti-aircraft missile systems in service with the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have now been modernized and can use an additional missile - the R-73. This is an air-to-air missile, which, when launched from an aircraft, depending on the version, has a launch range of 20-40 km. At the same time, the launch range from the ground will be significantly shorter. https://defence-ua.com/news/osa_z_raketami_r_73_pitannja_tsini_ta_jak_zminilis_harakteristiki_zrk-17430.html
Meanwhile, every day russia occupies several more villages. https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4383200/32.0526800
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Xi Jinping said that over the past 75 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and russia, the two countries have worked together to embark on a new path of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation between major countries and neighboring countries, setting an example for new international relations and relations between major neighboring countries.
Xi's only criteria for such relations is that the country in question be as committed to violent overreach and despotism, as Xi is.
I have to admit, that's a pretty high standard that only a select few countries can meet... North Korea, Russia, to name a couple.
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Xi Jinping said that over the past 75 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and russia, the two countries have worked together to embark on a new path of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation between major countries and neighboring countries, setting an example for new international relations and relations between major neighboring countries.
The news that russia no longer considers the Taliban a terrorist organization https://www.dw.com/en/russia-rebuilding-ties-with-the-taliban/a-69277920 did not make much of an impression on me, but Blinken surprised me.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirms contact with the HTS group, despite it still being on the US terrorism list.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y46713z21o
Lies and hypocrisy, which no one even tries to hide, raise big questions about values and trust. Apparently, in politics, only profit and interests matter.
I was also shocked that the BBC promoted an event sponsored by the russian government. In the program dedicated to the world Morse Code championships in Tunisia most of the time was devoted to russians and belarusians. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0k8y9kq
Is the BBC really a British state-owned company? British taxpayers should be happy that the BBC is advertising the russians and belarusians and their successes for their money. There was not a word about the English participants in the program. It is not difficult to guess why. It's disgusting.
This weekend there was a competition "ARRL 10-Meter Contest" organized by American Radio Relay League (ARRL). I haven't participated in competitions for a long time and decided to make a couple of hundred QSO. I was shocked that russian terrorists were allowed to take part in it and even more so by how many people responded to them. I turned off the radio in disgust.
All the more respect is given to the actions of brave people from small countries. A scandal erupted at the World Functional Sports Championships in Budapest. Lithuanian athlete Cornelia Dudayte saw russian symbols at a competition where russians were supposed to compete as neutral athletes, and in protest, she wore a T-shirt with the words "Make russia small again." The athlete was forced to leave the championship because she refused to take off her T-shirt. After the incident, the Lithuanian team, which consisted of 34 participants, decided to leave the championship after her. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c99x1j1jld9o
European leaders are planning to meet Wednesday evening in Brussels with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO chief Mark Rutte to discuss peace plans and the potential deployment of peacekeeping forces to Ukraine. In addition to Rutte and Zelenskyy, the invited participants include: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish President Andrzej Duda, European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the people said. https://www.politico.eu/article/senior-eu-leaders-to-discuss-ukraine-peace-troops-with-zelenskyy-and-rutte-next-week/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter
Ukraine sacks commander as russia advances on key logistics hub. Oleksandr Lutsenko, who led the Donetsk operational-tactical group of troops, was removed from his post after the Defense Forces under his command failed to stop the russian offensive. Over the past month, russia has seized territory roughly half the size of London. https://www.ft.com/content/97f8a9e5-1bd0-462a-a916-df2aa82b68b3
It appears that dismissal and transfer of mid-level commanders is the basis of the troop management strategy, but so far this has not improved the situation on the battlefield.
A study on how Ukrainians feel has shown the expected conclusion that the further from the front line people live, the better their health and medical care. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1j0xkn3j9no
The study is about chronic diseases and those that lead to death, but also the season of sneezing and coughing has long begun. I, apparently, after a long resistance, have caught some kind of infection or caught a cold. I have a sore throat and a runny nose.
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I prefer a human being person like Zelinskyj, instead of dressed up polished political symbols
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I prefer a human being person like Zelinskyj, instead of dressed up polished political symbols
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I prefer a human being person like Zelinskyj, instead of dressed up polished political symbols
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I prefer a human being person like Zelinskyj, instead of dressed up polished political symbols
Unfortunately, people like you turned out to be the majority in the last presidential elections. As a result, Ukraine lost a fifth of its population and territory, and this is not the end.
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It was windy and rainy most of the day today, so I decided to stay home. I slept poorly again last night and woke up coughing, but I felt better in the evening. Also, today was the first time in recent times that the power was not turned off in Kyiv. However, tomorrow the power outages will return. The temperature is slightly above zero, and this eases the situation in the power grid.
Igor Kirillov, russia's chemical weapons chief and mouthpiece, and an aide were killed by explosives planted in an electric scooter, according to russian officials, which was blown up as he left the building he lived in Moscow. On the eve of his killing, Ukraine's SBU declared that he had been named in absentia in a criminal case for the "mass use" of prohibited chemical weapons on the eastern and southern fronts in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyx4kvz4l0o
In Ukraine, every day there are more laws and fewer rights. Lawyers point out that restricting the rights of servicemen and other citizens during martial law without adhering to basic standards for conducting criminal proceedings does not promote voluntary military service, and also creates the prerequisites for victim behavior. https://unba.org.ua/publications/9688-vijna-abo-tyurma-yak-voennij-stan-zminiv-pravila-zastosuvannya-trimannya-pid-vartoyu.html
If the prosecution does not like the lawyer's position, it resorts to pressure, including through territorial recruitment and social support centers. Physical pressure, accusations of treason, mobilization - all this can be a reaction of the authorities to active defense.
The problems of lawyers' activities under martial law were discussed by the head of the National Association of Lawyers of Ukraine, the Council of Lawyers of Ukraine, Lidiya Izovitova, during her speech at the International Human Rights Conference. https://unba.org.ua/news/9784-deyaki-tck-stali-teritoryami-bez-advokaturi-lidiya-izovitova.html
Apparently Ukraine will have to go the whole way of Western democracies, of course, starting small.
King Henry VIII (1509–1547) began to issue laws against begging. Only the infirm and the elderly were allowed to beg; those who could work were flogged and ordered to return home. If caught a second time, they were beaten again and half their ears were cut off. If caught a third time, they were executed as criminals. During Henry VIII’s reign, 72,000 vagrants and beggars were executed. These laws went down in history as the “Bloody Legislation.”
King Edward VI (1547–1553) strengthened these laws. Those who did not work were sold into slavery to the person who reported them. If a slave ran away, for the first escape, a brand was burned on his forehead or cheek and he was given a lifelong slave. For the second escape, a second brand was placed, and for the third, he was executed as a state criminal.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law that improves the mechanisms for enforcing penalties in the form of fines and community service. According to the law, if a fine cannot be collected due to the debtor's lack of property or funds, it can be replaced with another type of punishment - community service. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/318415-ukraintsy-mogut-zamenit-shtrafy-obschestvennymi-rabotami-vladimir-zelenskiy-podpisal-zakon
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No, not so. I'm from Denmark and Denmark is the country that has contributed the most help to Ukraine in their fight against Russia. I support and agree with Denmark's continued help to Ukraine in their fight against Russia/Putin. Therefore I still prefer a human being like Zelinskyj, instead of polished political symbols
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No, not so. I'm from Denmark and Denmark is the country that has contributed the most help to Ukraine in their fight against Russia. I support and agree with Denmark's continued help to Ukraine in their fight against Russia/Putin. Therefore I still prefer a human being like Zelinskyj, instead of polished political symbols
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No, not so. I'm from Denmark and Denmark is the country that has contributed the most help to Ukraine in their fight against Russia. I support and agree with Denmark's continued help to Ukraine in their fight against Russia/Putin. Therefore I still prefer a human being like Zelinskyj, instead of polished political symbols
My boundless respect and gratitude to Denmark and the Danes who support Ukraine, but I do not understand where and how you had the opportunity to personally communicate with Zelensky or his people in order to draw such conclusions.
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You need to be more open to others perspectives on the situation.
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You need to be more open to others perspectives on the situation.
I have been waiting for these bandits to leave power for many years, but I have a feeling that the next ones will be even worse.
The Constitution states that a citizen who has lived in Ukraine for the last ten years before the election day can run for president. And for people's deputies - for the last five. According to this norm, virtually all Ukrainian refugees abroad have lost the opportunity to run for office. So, power will be shared among those who in recent years, being in Ukraine, were able to gather more resources. Naturally, they are already in power.
Electronic voting and the unprecedented ease of manipulation will greatly help. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-studies-european-models-post-war-elections-democracy/
Unfortunately, observing the situation from the inside, I have a very bleak perspectives.
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I give up......
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Today I felt better and went to the office. The team was waiting for me to find out the answer to a very important question - will there be a New Year's corporate party this year. For me, this is a word from another life, but I talked to the boss and he is not against it. I think this is not a big expense for the company and our office manager secretly said that the accounting department drinks coffee for a larger amount per month. I think she's exaggerating, but I am very pleased with the work of my office and I think that my people deserve a good rest. The big boss recently said again that I praise them too often, but I think that this is really true. We already have a large amount of work for next year and I think that a good atmosphere and well-coordinated work of the whole team will allow us to achieve good results. It also provides good support in the conditions of our gloomy reality.
The de facto leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa gave an interview to the BBC for the first time. I noticed that he was dressed in a shirt and jacket, and did not try to look like a terrorist in camouflage. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cj6zxy4778wo Although this would be expected of him as the leader of an organization recognized by the US and other countries as terrorist. Probably, only scoundrels wear suits lately. Isn't the word lawyer a synonym for scoundrel?
I should have invaded Ukraine earlier, pooteen tells russians in TV marathon. A lengthy portion of the session was focused on the war in Ukraine, with pooteen saying he was "open to compromises" to end the war - although it was unclear what such compromises could entail. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdjgzrkxp97o
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Yesterday pooteen stated that it would be a good idea to conduct an experiment and hit Kyiv with an Oreshnik missile and see if they could shoot it down and Zelensky called pooteen a dumbass https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa. Today the dumbass sent ballistic missiles to Kyiv. It was quite loud, but there were no hits near me. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cvg74j2x8k3o
There were air raid sirens all night, but I only heard some of them. And that was only because I woke up from a bad cough.
russian troops in the east have captured Trudove and Uspenivka, completing the occupation of the last fragment of the "Uspenivka pocket." Unfortunately, not all Ukrainian troops were able to escape the encirclement, reports the analytical project DeepState. https://meta.ua/uk/news/war-in-ukraine/242509-okupanti-zahopili-trudove-ta-uspenivku-ne-vsi-viiskovi-zsu-viishli-z-otochennya-deepstate/
Against this background, the rare counterattacks do not cause much joy.
Explosions have occurred near the russian Northern Fleet base in Murmansk. https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2024/12/19/7489907/
Novoshakhtinsk in western russia was attacked by attack drones, and an oil refinery in the city caught fire. https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/novoshahtinsk-atakuvali-udarni-droni-misti-1734562804.html
Ukraine's largest energy company said that for security reasons, they will currently provide only a minimum of information about the state of the energy system in Ukraine. https://news.novyny.live/v-ukrayini-obmezhat-povidomlennia-pro-stan-energetiki-prichina-220897.html
I doubt that the russians don't know about the state of the energy system, but the fact that this information is hidden from the Ukrainians speaks for itself.
Yesterday another video appeared on the Internet about the "work" of "mobilizers" who poured gas into a car and set it on fire, trying to pull the driver out of his car. https://enovosty.com/uk/news-ukr/news_society-ukr/full/busifikaciya-perexodit-usi-mezhi-tck-z-policiyeyu-vikuryuvali-vodiya-gazom-ta-pidpalyuvali-avto
More and more people are asking the question: how are Ukrainians who behave like russians different from russians? It seems to me that the answer is obvious - this will happen in any society if you give power to marginals and relieve them of responsibility. Every day Ukraine becomes more and more unpleasant country and not all the blame can be put on russians. Broken windows theory in action.
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Well, there were more hits and destructions than officially reported. But even what the authorities said was pretty sad.
As a result of the enemy attack and damage to the heating main in the Holosiivskyi district, 630 residential buildings, 16 medical institutions, 17 schools, and 13 kindergartens are currently without heat. https://t.me/KyivCityOfficial/11890
The historic St. Nicholas Church and an office building nearby were damaged. https://thepage.ua/ua/news/20-grudnya-rosijska-raketa-poshkodila-kostel-svyatogo-mikolaya-u-kiyevi
The building used to house the headquarters of a major russian bank that was nationalized last year. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-66268627
The European Commission has decided to provide Ukraine with €18.1 billion in macro-financial assistance (MFA). The loan will be disbursed in tranches over the course of 2025, with the first disbursement to Ukraine in early January.
It is noted that this amount is the EU’s contribution to the G7 initiative “Emergency Loans to Accelerate Ukraine’s Revenues” (ERA), which provides for a collective loan of €45 billion to help Ukraine cover its budget, military and recovery costs. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/3939971-evrokomisia-opriludnila-risenna-pro-181-milarda-kreditu-dla-ukraini-persij-trans-u-sicni.html
"Ukraine is starting to receive the first US funds at the expense of frozen russian assets. The World Bank will provide $2 billion through the DPL mechanism. The Bank's Executive Board approved the allocation of funds the day before. And today the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine signed the relevant agreements with the World Bank," Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
He noted that, in particular, $1 billion will be provided in the form of a non-refundable grant from the World Bank's FIF fund with a US contribution within the framework of the G7 initiative. Another $1.05 billion will be received in the form of a loan under guarantees from the governments of Japan and Great Britain. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/3940240-ukraina-pocinae-otrimuvati-persi-kosti-zi-zamorozenih-aktiviv-rf-svitovij-bank-nadae-2-milardi.html
A loan at the expense of russian assets. I wouldn't be surprised if later this loan has to be repaid to russia, perhaps at the expense of the territories through mutual reciprocity...
According to official statistics, only 0.26% of registered businesses in the country were included in the List of Taxpayers with a High Level of Voluntary Compliance with Tax Legislation – the so-called “White Business Club”. This was reported by the People’s Deputy of Ukraine and member of the Finance Committee of the Parliament of Ukraine Nina Yuzhanina. Of these, only 151 are private entrepreneurs, or 0.009% of more than 1.7 million registered private entrepreneurs. This approach to small entrepreneurs contributes to the reduction of entrepreneurship in the country and harms economic development. https://www.komersant.info/0-26-ukrainskoho-biznesu-u-bilomu-klubi-yuzhanina-zaiavyla-shcho-tsia-polityka-znyshchuie-pidpryiemnytstvo/
In late November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on tax increases. New changes to tax legislation provide for tax increases for individuals and entrepreneurs. The military levy has increased from one and a half percent to five percent. After the president signed this law, Ukraine saw a mass closure of individual entrepreneurs. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/pidpriyemci-skarzhatsya-fopi-zakrivayutsya-yaki-naslidki-pidpisannya-zakonu-pro-pidvischennya-podatkiv-2727390.html
But there is also a good news. A coalition of countries led by Britain and Latvia that is engaged in joint procurement of UAVs for Kyiv will begin transferring tens of thousands of drones to Ukraine in January, British Deputy Defense Minister Luke Pollard said on Thursday. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1035303.html
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More and more people are asking the question: how are Ukrainians who behave like russians different from russians? It seems to me that the answer is obvious - this will happen in any society if you give power to marginals and relieve them of responsibility. Every day Ukraine becomes more and more unpleasant country and not all the blame can be put on russians. Broken windows theory in action.
At first I thought you were talking about Bastiat's broken window theory (naturally, since my training is in economics and not criminology), but now I understand what you are actually saying. The Russians are Russian-izing Ukraine by pummeling it to dust, hoping that it will just be abandoned and he can walk right in without much resistance, and with a populace that is already accustomed to Russian-style lying coming from the State. Sadly this seems to be working, starting at the top in Ukraine.
The US president has already retired, so a month from today when the new president is sworn in, things may get interesting again. Hopefully more interesting for Russia than for Ukraine. Kudos to the folks who pulled off the exploding scooter caper, in Moscow.
I wish you annd your family as merry a Christmas as can be had under the circumstances, and hopefully even more merry than that!
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Lawlessness begets lawlessness.
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Lawlessness begets lawlessness.
You got it right!
I can imagine how those who die every day at the front feel, knowing what is happening behind their backs.
Two sources in air defence units told the Guardian the deficit at the front has become so acute that the general staff has ordered already-depleted air defence units to free up more men to send to the front as infantry. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/21/ukraine-faces-difficult-decisions-over-acute-shortage-of-frontline-troops
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that the statement about the "transfer of air defense to infantry", published by the British newspaper The Guardian with references to sources, is unreliable and incorrect. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-henshtab-zsu-media-perevedennya-ppo-v-pikhotu/33248296.html
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken believes that Ukrainians must make a decision: fight or seek ways to negotiate and try to achieve a ceasefire. https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-on-msnbc-morning-joe-with-willie-geist-jonathan-lemire-andrea-mitchell-and-mike-barnicle/
European allies and Ukraine are approaching critical weeks before Donald Trump’s inauguration, when Ukraine’s sovereignty and Europe’s security are at stake.
The Financial Times article discusses Donald Trump’s possible policy towards Ukraine after his inauguration. In particular, it mentions that Trump may try to force Ukraine to conclude a peace agreement on terms favorable to russia, or even to abandon its support for Kyiv.
It also reports on the difficult situation in which Europe finds itself in the context of the war in Ukraine. European leaders argue that any peace settlement should not be imposed without Ukraine’s participation. However, due to internal political problems in some European countries, such as France and Germany, Europe is unable to act with great force to influence the situation. https://www.ft.com/content/e241db42-128b-4c5b-9abd-5a71163409c9
In Kyiv, heat supply has been restored to all consumers who were left without heating the day before due to a missile attack on the capital. This was reported by the Kyiv City Military Administration. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/u-kijevi-povnistju-vidnovili-opalennja-pislja-raketnoji-ataki-jakoji-rf-zavdala-naperedodni.html
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Today was a surprisingly quiet day, except for two short alarms at night and during the day. Fortunately, there were no missiles or drones in Kyiv.
It will be more difficult for cities like Kharkiv and Kherson, because russia bombs them with aerial bombs, which cannot be intercepted and cause great destruction. For example, the Kherson Regional Oncology Center was destroyed by two air bombs. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c62396q92zjo
Ukrainian drones in turn attacked Kazan, where several military factories are located, but apparently due to the impact of electronic warfare, the drones hit residential buildings. https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/ataka-droniv-kazan-tspd-rozpovili-ki-vazhlivi-1734768960.html
Kazan is far from the front line and I don’t know if there are any electronic warfare systems there, but it is noteworthy that the drones were able to fly there at all. Some russians can now feel like Ukrainians.
The government wants to obtain licenses from the United States to produce Patriot anti-aircraft systems in Ukraine. This was stated by President Volodymyr Zelensky in a conversation with readers of the French publication Le Parisien.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0s0f-dHnck
I don’t even want to know what one must be under to make such statements...
Zelensky was asked why he wears a military uniform. "I could never afford to wear a purely military uniform, because I respect the military, but I myself am not a military man. I have such clothes, very close to the military," Zelensky replied.
https://24tv.ua/chomu-zelenskiy-nosit-viyskovu-formu-prezident-poyasniv-svoyu_n2711398
Unfortunately, no one asked the question of why he then wears a uniform similar to a military one.
In general, there are two opposing views on war in society. Those who are directly fighting or who are really threatened by it, who suffer from it, want it to end quickly. Those who hold power and make money from it want to continue. This is logical and I understand both.
At the same time, both in Ukraine and abroad, one of the main arguments why the war cannot be stopped is the assertion that if we stop fighting, then in a few years russia will recover, assemble a new army and continue to fight. At the same time, they ignore the fact that russia is not going to stop now, and Ukraine is rapidly losing territory, people and the remnants of the economy. At the same time, I have not heard anything that anyone has set the task, if the war ends, to restore and strengthen Ukraine to such an extent that russia will no longer be able to successfully attack.
The head of the European Union's foreign policy service, Kaia Kallas, stated that prematurely advancing negotiations to end the war will not have a positive outcome for Ukraine.
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-kallas-ukraina-perehovory/33245798.html
It’s a pity that she didn’t say how long everything would continue without changes and how many Ukrainians would survive (if they survive, of course) before russia apparently stops at the border with Poland. Sometimes it seems that no one is interested in the survival of as many Ukrainians as possible except the Ukrainians themselves, for whom the only real chance to survive is to run as far away as possible.
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No matter how hard it is for the refugees, they are becoming more and more assimilated and are unlikely to return to Ukraine. In a conversation with Seva, who came to visit his mother and sister last weekend but will not be able to come this weekend because he works all his free time from studying, I joked that on Sundays in Poland only traffic lights and Ukrainians work. Seva replied that traffic lights do not always work...
But this is nothing compared to the fact that in Ukraine now men have fewer rights than women in Afghanistan. In essence, Ukraine has introduced slavery for a certain category of citizens (slaves), who have no rights or freedoms without the permission of the owner (the state). As in the case of slavery, a Ukrainian cannot voluntarily renounce citizenship (slavery).
It is significant that in my team now men (including me) make up only a fifth of all employees.
However, women also do not tolerate the situation well. The wife of a friend (they lives far from the front, both have a job) describes her condition as a compressed spring, ready to break from the stress. When we talked with the boss, we noted the inadequate behavior of one employee. The boss said that she changed a lot after the big invasion in 2022.
But perhaps the most significant event, the full consequences of which still cannot be assessed, in recent times was the hacking of Ukrainian state registries on December 20, 2024. Among the main registers are the State Register of Civil Status Acts of Citizens, the Unified State Register of Legal Entities and Individual Entrepreneurs, and the State Register of Real Estate Rights. The authorities immediately blamed russia and russian hackers. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c7ve1298ndgo?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
A total of 25 registers were damaged. It is impossible to conclude any real estate alienation agreement, purchase and sale agreements, leases, donations, mortgage agreements. It is not possible to enter information about the change of the head, participants of legal entities. State programs for payments to victims of russian aggression, privatization of municipal property are suspended.
Cybersecurity experts point out that with access to the registers, attackers could actually gain access to all data about Ukrainians – addresses, contacts, property lists, information about marriages, divorces. Data could also be compromised, that is, information could be changed. For example, criminals could change the names of company owners, people’s shares in companies, addresses, and even remarry other people. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cx26dypg4kgo
There are also queues at the borders due to the impossibility of checking and registering the movement of people and goods.
People joke that the state has received several million new reservists, because the data on employee reservations and deferments from military service has also been lost, the program by which mobilizers checked people when they caught them on the street does not work. Now, by default, everyone could be sent to the army until they prove otherwise with paper documents. But few people have them, because the state declared that one of its greatest achievements was the transfer of mobilization to electronic form.
Against this background, the adoption of the law according to which a register of military personnel was created looks like a mockery.
The following data of the military will be stored in the registry: last name, first name, patronymic, gender, date of birth, digitized facial image, registration number of the taxpayer's registration card.
Also stored will be: unique record number in the Unified State Demographic Register (if available), marital status and information about family members, information about issued military registration documents. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/3939379-rada-uhvalila-zakon-pro-stvorenna-derzreestru-vijskovosluzbovciv.html
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russian terrorists Satanists confirmed my expectations and attacked Ukraine on Christmas with many drones and missiles. Despite the fact that the air raid alarm lasted almost all night, I surprisingly slept peacefully and did not hear anything. This time the attack was aimed at the energy sector and when I woke up in the morning, there was no electricity. Then it was turned on, but according to the new schedules, it will soon be turned off again and turned on only at night. However, even the garlands on the New Year's tree are now on batteries.
Kharkiv was also badly damaged. There is a lot of destruction and casualties. Oleg Sinegubov, head of Kharkiv's regional administration, reports that 500,000 people in the Kharkiv area are without electricity. Also, 520,000 people are without heating and water.
US President-elect Donald Trump wants to ensure a lasting and just peace in Ukraine. He will not agree to a Minsk-like agreement. US Special Representative for Ukraine and russia Keith Kellogg said this on Fox Business.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6366369761112
Ukraine is demanding that the EU stop providing aid to refugees and consular services to men of military age. The authorities expect this to force citizens to return home. This is reported by El Pais. https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-12-24/ucrania-busca-el-retorno-de-hasta-10-millones-de-refugiados-y-emigrantes-huidos-por-la-guerra-de-rusia.html?event=go&event_log=go&prod=SUSDIGCRART&o=cerrsus
"Kyiv is calling for EU member states to stop providing aid to refugees as a means of pressure, and for men of military age to not have access to consular services. At the same time, it seeks not to lose touch with those who have left, through assistance through legislative reforms," the publication indicates. According to the UN, about 6.7 million Ukrainians are abroad, and taking into account economic migrants - up to 10 million.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhy has denied certain allegations published in an El Pais article regarding the return of Ukrainian citizens from the European Union.
“Some of the allegations in this article are untrue,” Tykhy said. According to him, the Ukrainian government has not requested a reduction in aid for refugees and guarantees access to consular services for men of military age. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/319026-ukraina-ne-trebovala-ot-es-sokrascheniya-pomoschi-bezhentsam-zayavlenie-mid
Meanwhile, according to the survey results, 27% of individual entrepreneurs plan to close their business in the near future. More than half of them, namely 62%, decided to close their business due to a sharp increase in the tax burden. The remaining 19% of respondents explain their decision by problems in running a business. Since the signing of the law on the introduction of a military levy for small and medium-sized businesses, there are two closed for every new entrepreneur. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/319005-bolee-chetverti-fopov-prekraschayut-biznes-iz-za-povysheniya-nalogov-rezultaty-oprosa
Due to the increase in taxes, salaries have also actually decreased. It seems to me that the next consequence of such state policy will be even greater impoverishment of the population and a shortage of goods.
The Cabinet of Ministers has submitted to the parliament a bill proposing to strengthen responsibility for violating the requirements of a special legal regime - martial law, namely - citizens' violation of the curfew. https://sprotyv.info/obshchestvo/uryad-proponu%d1%94-posiliti-vidpovidalnist-za-porushennya-komendantsko%d1%97-godini-pro-shho-jdetsya/
No one can answer the question of what purpose is served by restricting the movement of citizens in areas remote from the front line. Apparently, only the lack of money prevents the state from putting an electronic bracelet on every slave, excuse me - citizen, to track their movements. But the shepherds invented a more economical option a long time ago - a bell that can be hung around the neck or inserted into the nose so that citizens during the curfew could not leave their stables, I apologize again - homes unnoticed.
OSINT resource DeepState https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.4383200/32.0526800 reacted to rumors about its closure and mobilization of its analysts into the infantry as a "punishment" for disclosing information about the situation on the front that was unpleasant for Commander-in-Chief Syrsky. The DeepState team thanked the Ukrainians for their support and assured that they would continue working "for victory" and "are not going to give up."
"Lies will destroy us all," DeepState concluded. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/ymovirne-zakrittya-deepstate-scho-kazhut-u-samomu-kanali-2729715.html
Let me remind you that this online map allows you to see almost all the actual changes in the front line online. This has always greatly irritated the authorities, who tend to hide such information. Perhaps this is why stories like the replacement of green traffic lights with emerald ones appear from time to time. It is better for the population to look at the traffic lights, and not at the situation on the front.
The latest reshuffle of diplomats deserves a separate discussion, but judging by everything, the main criterion for appointing diplomats is not professionalism but loyalty. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cd9xkv1l91wo
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I had seen the report about the Christmas Day attacks by the Satanically-inspired Ruskies. Not a shred of humanity there.
I don't know what Trump will do with regard to Ukraine, but I am pretty certain he isn't just going to keep Ukraine in a permanent state of genocide while waiting for a miracle to occur, which was clearly Biden's approach (or the approach of whoever is actually making decisions for him). I'm very interested to see what he does. It likely won't be anything that anyone is speculating about, at present.
I'm sorry that Christmas was ruined once again by the Satanists.
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Today is Saturday and the alarm is off, but out of habit I wake up at the same time. From the point of view of the regime this is good and I think that I owe my relatively good health to this among other things. I also do not miss online meetings with Colin and the others, not only on Saturdays, but also on some other days. This not only allows me to maintain and gradually improve my English, but is also a great way to spend time in an interesting company.
Today is a quiet day, and I worked a little this morning. I still need to write a report and send it to the boss. I'll do it tomorrow. Yesterday the electricity was turned off for a short time, and today it is not, but you never know when it will be turned off again and for how long.
We have a week of vacation since Monday, but many are planning to do things they never got around to before. Yesterday we had a corporate party, but I don't like such things and left quickly. I hope the others felt freer and had a good rest then. Overall, 5 months have passed unnoticed, but I'm not satisfied with the fact that I'm just doing my current job well. I wanted to show a good result, but due to circumstances beyond our control, we couldn't achieve anything outstanding this year. However, given the circumstances, not only did we not worsen our indicators, but we started working in a new direction and are expanding. Last week we got two new employees. They are also very young and inexperienced, but so far they are eager to learn and work. I will draw conclusions later, but for now I'm making plans for next year. This is very optimistic, given the situation in the country and the world, but I believe in what Castaneda called "The Power of Intention."
More than a week ago, Ukraine experienced an unprecedented cyberattack, the consequences of which will be felt for a very long time.
Dozens of state registers of Ukraine have been blocked. It is impossible to conclude a single agreement on the purchase/sale of real estate, register a business, change the owners of companies and perform many other notarial actions.
No one knows the timing of the restoration, but many point to the extreme vulnerability of electronic registers and the authorities' attempts to transfer everything to an electronic format. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/clyvj2dkv3lo
During russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, at least 3.5 million Ukrainians lost their homes, said Dmytro Lubinets, a member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. https://hromadske.radio/news/2024/12/28/za-chas-povnomasshtabnoi-viyny-3-5-milyona-ukraintsiv-vtratyly-zhytlo-ofis-ombudsmena
The National Bank sold $1.6 billion in a week to support the hryvnia. This is a record since the start of the full-scale war. https://finance.liga.net/ua/ekonomika/novosti/nbu-vstanovyv-novyy-rekord-iz-prodazhu-valiuty-dlia-pidtrymky-hryvni
Ukraine's state and state-guaranteed debt as of November 30, 2024 increased and amounted to UAH 6,644.68 billion, or USD 159.74 billion. During November, state debt increased by UAH 231.12 billion, or USD 4.37 billion, according to the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. https://flot2017.com/derzhavnyj-borh-ukrainy-za-lystopad-zris-u-minfini-nazvaly-sumu/
Ukraine is under mounting pressure from Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and a group of central European companies to keep gas moving from its eastern border with russia into the European Union following the expiration of a transit agreement on Dec. 31.
Almost three years after the full-scale russian invasion of Ukraine, Budapest and Bratislava still rely on cheap gas from Gazprom PJSC, undermining the EU push to cut reliance on russian energy.
With three days to go before the russia-Ukraine agreement runs out, rhetoric on all sides has sharpened. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this week accused Fico of striking “shadow agreements” with russian President vladimir pooteen. The Slovak leader on Friday threatened to halt power supplies to his eastern neighbor, a step Ukraine criticized. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-28/ukraine-russia-gas-transit-deal-faces-critical-moment-of-truth?srnd=homepage-europe
This not only weakens the unity of Europe, but also creates a threat of physical destruction of the gas pipeline on the territory of Ukraine by russia. Then millions of Ukrainians could be left without heating.
The increase in electricity tariffs did not affect the financial results of Energoatom, said Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak. https://biz.nv.ua/ukr/markets/deputat-rozpoviv-yak-groshi-vid-pidvishchennya-tarifiv-na-elektroenergiyu-z-jili-mishi-50477334.html
The Cabinet of Ministers allowed all clergy to be booked, and classified religious organizations as critically important.
Thus, clergymen were equated with the ultimate beneficial owners of critical enterprises, members of supervisory boards and employees of foreign diplomatic institutions, etc.
The Cabinet of Ministers also made changes, according to which legal entities that are critical for the functioning of the economy and ensuring the livelihood of the population will now include religious organizations.
Thus, they were equated with representative offices of donor institutions and implementers of international technical assistance projects.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/319287-kabmin-razreshil-bronirovat-vsekh-svyaschennosluzhiteley-a-religioznye-organizatsii-otnes-k-kriticheski-vazhnym
As of now, according to sources of "Ukrainian Truth" in law enforcement agencies, 13 Rolls-Royce Spectres have already been registered in Ukraine. Some of these cars are already compromising our state on the streets of Monaco. Spectre is the first electric car from Rolls-Royce worth over half a million euros, which began production in 2023. https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/12/27/7490882/
After a surprise offensive earlier this year, Ukraine’s forces have lost about half the territory seized in russia’s Kursk region and may lose the rest in a matter of months, according to US officials, potentially depriving Kyiv of important leverage for ceasefire talks with russia.
Ukraine’s military is already grappling with a lack of manpower and uncertainty about the future flow of supplies from the US and other allies, even as it struggles to fend off russian advances in its east. In Kursk, the region in western russia where Ukrainian forces seized a swath of land, Ukrainian troops are also facing off against about 12,000 North Korean troops reinforcing the russians. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-27/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-could-soon-retake-all-of-kursk-region
Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that russian leader vladimir pooteen has rejected a proposal being developed by the team of newly elected US President Donald Trump regarding a possible peace plan. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-26-2024
russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that russia will not be satisfied with a ceasefire in Ukraine, it needs "legally binding agreements and the elimination of the causes of the conflict," russian media wrote on December 25. https://www.ostro.org/news/rosiyu-ne-vlashtuye-peremyr-ya-z-ukrayinoyu-lavrov-i504994
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Today was another quiet night with no air raid sirens or power outages, and this morning I spent my morning writing reports and analyzing cases.
I haven't had much time for radio lately, but today I turned it on 28MHz and I didn't regret it! Besides the wonderful QSO with my English friends Colin G3ZAF, Ian G3WXG and Steve M0USC, I had a QSO with Andy M0WTU, who only had a vertical on his car. Interestingly, Andy used to live in Ukraine before he moved to London. I also got through to DX - N1TYH and N5G.
Apparently the Christmas lights add RF noise, so I can only imagine how many other interesting stations I couldn't hear because of it.
Ukraine's accession to NATO is still on the agenda, but it is not a priority aspiration, said Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Andriy Melnyk in an interview with Berliner Morgenpost. https://www.morgenpost.de/politik/article407973143/melnyk-diese-kriegsgefahr-muss-man-in-berlin-ernst-nehmen.html
I got the impression that the previous representative of Ukraine to the UN, Sergiy Kyslytsya, irritated not only the russians there, which is why he was returned to Kyiv. I understand that this is part of big politics, but fewer and fewer people who defended the interests of Ukraine retain their positions.
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I can't believe that another year has passed. A year of hard life, but which for the first time in a long time became a little better for me than the previous one. A year that gave me hope. Probably because I no longer connect my fate with the fate of this country. However, this is not the country it was just a few years ago. While some people think that the war will last for a long time, I feel that everything will change much sooner. The long-standing wars in Azerbaijan and Syria were over in almost a week. But that will be later, and now I don't think even about my job.
Yesterday Maryna arrived safely in Kyiv and I consider it a great success that we can celebrate the New Year together. This is not available to all separated families, and it is completely impossible for those who did not live to see that day. We have a lot of food and the only thing I want is to celebrate the next year together with the whole family.
We were woken up by explosions from another drone attack. This time, the drones even reached the government quarter, where they damaged a residential building and the building of the National Bank of Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4glyng954wo
The electricity was not turned off today, but the energy situation is not getting any better. On the contrary, data on trading in the electricity market was closed. https://mind.ua/news/20283343-operator-rinku-zasekretiv-dani-pro-torgi-elektroenergieyu
There is less and less information, and more and more lies, and it is becoming more and more difficult to understand what is happening in the country.
One of the main events of the past year was the end of the transit of russian gas through the gas pipeline on the territory of Ukraine. russian gas has stopped flowing to EU states via Ukraine after a five-year deal expired, marking the end of a decades-long arrangement. The European Commission said the EU had prepared for the change and most states could cope. Moldova, which is not in the EU, is already suffering shortages. russia can still send gas to Hungary, Turkey and Serbia through the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4glyjx9m71o
In unrecognized Transnistria, gas is being turned off en masse: homes and boiler rooms are left without heat. https://mind.ua/news/20283378-u-neviznanomu-pridnistrov-yi-masovo-vidklyuchayut-gaz-bez-tepla-zalishayutsya-budinki-j-kotelni
Ukraine also announced a fourfold increase in the cost of transporting gas within the country, due to the fact that most of these costs were covered by gas transit. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/z-1-sichnya-v-ukrayini-v-4-razy-zdorozhchaye-transportuvannya-gazu
Ukraine is in the top 10 in terms of deposits of important minerals, mostly for export. Among them: titanium ores, kaolin, iron ore and graphite, but the main deposits are in the occupied territories. “In my opinion and that of geological experts, the war in Ukraine is being waged precisely because of these resources,” said Ksenia Orynchak, executive director of the National Association of Mining Industries of Ukraine (NAMUI), during a speech at the Mind Invest Summit 2024. In the occupied territories of Ukraine, among the minerals there is coal worth approximately $7 trillion and other minerals, estimated at approximately $12–13 trillion.
https://mind.ua/video/20278765-vijna-v-ukrayini-vedetsya-cherez-pokladi-vazhlivih-mineraliv-ochilnicya-nadpu
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I think it is highly credible that Ukraine is being sought for its minerals. Russia, having permanently failed at building anything requiring human incentive, creativity, or intelligence, is forced to make its role in the world, "the world's provider of raw materials." In particular they may be forced eventually into an even narrower role, "the provider of raw materials to the world's tyrant regimes," by their uncivilized behavior.
Glad the two of you are together again. I understand why you are slowly dissociating yourself from the Ukrainian identity, as the identity of Ukraine is degraded by its leaders. No person of ideals would blame anyone for leaving such leadership.
I pray that 2025 will bring you only good things!
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I think it is highly credible that Ukraine is being sought for its minerals. Russia, having permanently failed at building anything requiring human incentive, creativity, or intelligence, is forced to make its role in the world, "the world's provider of raw materials." In particular they may be forced eventually into an even narrower role, "the provider of raw materials to the world's tyrant regimes," by their uncivilized behavior.
Thank you Braden!
Praying for peace and prosperity! I hope next year will be better than the previous one.
russia does not need those minerals, they destroy even those mines and metallurgical plants that used to work. They do not need competitors for those mines and plants that already exist in russia, and it is important for them that Ukraine and Europe cannot use these mineral resources, but are forced to buy them somewhere else.
As for identity, I should probably clarify. I remain Ukrainian, but I am moving away from those who are becoming like russians. As for the regime - the state is associated with it. The rest of the world perceives your country in the person of the regime that seized and holds power in it. Therefore, we must always clarify this when, for example, talking about Nazi Germany, fascist Italy, Soviet russia or Ukraine during the presidency of Zelensky. Particularly sarcastic is the indignation of those who voted for Jews in the last elections about the fact that a large menorah has been installed on the main square of Christian Ukraine. This is as absurd as the indignation of Jews who first supported and voted for the Nazis in Germany, and then were surprised when they were burned in the ovens of concentration camps. However, I am glad that there are still no religious strife in Ukraine.
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Wlad and Gene, best wishes that 2025 will be much better for and your families, and above all, bring peace for you and your country!
Braden, best wishes to and yours as well!
I liked your description of Russia and its future. And even in extracting resources they will continue to rely on Western technology, either purchased or stolen, just as they have for centuries in one way or another. Nobody will ever mistake Russia for a vibrant, innovative country.
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Wlad and Gene, best wishes that 2025 will be much better for and your families, and above all, bring peace for you and your country!
Thank you Bob!
It snowed during the night and immediately melted. At 6 and 7 a.m., loud explosions were heard in the distance, but there was suspiciously no information about the consequences. The official version about only drones and their successful shooting down is hard to believe...
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Stop your harrassment of Yews
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Hi,
Have you also experienced that there are much fewer Russian radio amateurs on CW now?
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Greetings and happy new year all,
It was a very wet, windy, and cool new year, but I was too busy to notice much as I was enjoying the ISS SSTV event that ended just today. Many of the images were much better than the last ISS event. My best images come when the ISS was far off onto the horizon with my high gain vertical. I also used a lower gain vertical with my second radio and RPI3 which did a surprisingly good job of receiving good images when the ISS was directly over head. It's fun to have more than one radio.
The last of the storms finished yesterday and the rain FINALLY stopped. Cats played and all was good. But stepping into the grass, you can hear the SQUISH SQUISH since the ground is so saturated. We've now received 66cm of rain so far. At least the temps are warm and no frost.
The last big wind storm caused my hex beam to park looking due south (180) .. shrug .. Yet I was able to work my friend Ken in Japan with 35w on 15m, and he was using 200w on 9el beam :) I hope I can get my friend over soon and see if we can lower the hex and un-wrap all the coax off the mast and reset it again. I bought new hardened stainless steal bolts which wait atop my table for this day to arrive. . .
I have retreated from our national news, especially politics. I just don't have the stomach for it now. I use the AP news feed and read what I feel is important, skipping the rest of the muck. :(
I keep an ear out about happenings in Ukraine, but wonder how worthy the information is. So I especially appreciate your on going reports Wlad.
Glad your YL is back. Hope you guys get all the medical stuff done. Also hope you have some quiet evenings together to just enjoy each others company and love.
Cats are well. Friday, the storms had stopped for a while and the sun had started peeking through. Obi and Fritz were outside somewhere. I used the bathroom and while I was in there, I heard my tower start clanking. When I looked out the window, I could see the wind had quickly come up and all the trees were whipping about, then the rain just poured like fire hoses! I came to the front room to look out the big window just in time for Obi to run under the covered front porch. He looked up at me with big eyes and I think he wanted to know WHY? WHY!? WHEN WILL THIS STOP??? He was soaked to the bone :) Bless his little spirit. He ran in and I toweled him off and gave him a big hug and made it all better again.
My little cousin from Idaho (very near Canada boarder) made her yearly voyage to my brother's home in Arizona. There is no snow and ice covered roads in Arizona (just north of Mexico boarder) but lots of sunshine. She loves it. My brother and his wife love hosting her. She is lucky she can work from anywhere with her job.
I have all the stuff ready for my radio shack computer replacement except the ambition to untangle the web of wires, cables, and coax to finish the project. It's like watching an elderly person trying to push themselves up out of a chair -- takes a few tries before the ass finally departs the cushion!
Wishing you all the very best in 25
73
Jaye
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The first week of the new year was no different from the last week of the previous one. The same missile and drone attacks and the same weather. At least in Kyiv the electricity was not turned off all this time. The long weekend gave the opportunity to spend more time with Maryna and even meet some old friends. You pay more and more attention to age, especially when everyone simultaneously takes out and puts on glasses or someone grows a beard, showing off gray hair. Most of the conversations are about children.
The National Bank of Ukraine sold $5.284 billion on the interbank foreign exchange market in December 2024. This is the maximum monthly volume in history. In total, in 2024, the NBU sold $34.822 billion on the interbank market, which is $6.212 billion more than in 2023. Read more here: https://kontrakty.ua/article/255133
Zelensky started the year with a long interview in which he used profanity liberally and accused the United States of failing to provide aid to Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XEpoCMIADI
The United States was concerned about the possibility of russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told the Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/25798b9f-1ad9-4f7f-ab9e-d6f36bbe3edf
As the publication recalls, US President Joe Biden has repeatedly cited the risk of escalation as a reason not to provide certain types of weapons that Ukraine requested. At the same time, Blinken said, nuclear weapons were one of the issues on which China probably helped the US, despite Beijing's support for russia.
Blinken also rejects the suggestion that the Biden administration was slow to provide the weapons. He argues that the White House had to take into account a number of factors, such as whether Ukraine could operate and maintain the systems.
The commander of the 3rd separate assault brigade, Andriy Biletsky, commented on the actions of the mobilization center employees in an interview. https://enovosty.com/uk/news-ukr/news_society-ukr/full/vijskovi-proti-tck-do-yakix-kardinalnix-zmin-privela-silova-mobilizaciya. He noted that it is better for military personnel in rear cities to use civilian clothes, because civilians react unfavorably to the military.
The State Bureau of Investigation has opened a criminal case into the circumstances of the formation of the 155th Anna Kyivska Mechanized Brigade, which is currently stationed near Pokrovsk, and previously trained in France.
This was reported by journalist Yuriy Butusov. He noted that he conducted a long investigation to find out the reasons why the brigade had a catastrophic situation, which led to significant losses among personnel and equipment and mass desertion (unauthorized abandonment of the unit).
Before the brigade fired the first shot, 1,700 soldiers left it voluntarily. Investigators of the State Bureau of Investigation were tasked with finding the culprits, and the journalist conducted an investigation, obtained a significant amount of testimony and materials to show the public what the formation of new brigades of the 140s, 150s, and even 160s from scratch without command personnel, technical specialists, weapons, and drones leads to. This is indeed a crime, but a crime not of soldiers and officers - but of the leaders of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Headquarters, the Ministry of Defense, and the General Staff, who continue to waste lives and state funds on new projects, instead of strengthening experienced and combat-ready brigades. The journalist believes that they are trying to shirk responsibility by shifting it from the hands of the State Bureau of Investigation to the officers in a hopeless situation who have to be responsible for a political project poorly organized by the top leadership. Source: https://censor.net/ua/r3528007
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/03/as-ukraines-new-leopard-2-brigade-disintegrates-the-russians-advance-on-pokrovsk/
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Stop your harrassment of Yews
What do you mean?
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Hi,
Have you also experienced that there are much fewer Russian radio amateurs on CW now?
Since 2022, when I was deprived of freedom of movement and never left Kyiv, I used the radio only at home, where I have an antenna for only 20-15-10 meters. Since it is difficult to describe my feeling of disgust for russian terrorists, I turned on the radio only after lunch so as not to hear them. Recently, when I started working, I have no time for the radio at all.
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Wlad and Gene, best wishes that 2025 will be much better for and your families, and above all, bring peace for you and your country!
Thank you, Bob, thank y'all guys!
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Cats are well.
The cats are ones to fulfil the life with the sense. Consider the said above to be a form to say 'glad to know that'.
What do you mean?
I believe he means literally what he said. Any form, any kind, and any means of anti-Semitism is the thing we should stop by now and allow no more.
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Cats are well.
The cats are ones to fulfil the life with the sense. Consider the said above to be a form to say 'glad to know that'.
What do you mean?
I believe he means literally what he said. Any form, any kind, and any means of anti-Semitism is the thing we should stop by now and allow no more.
Cats are good, russians are bad.
I wouldn't worry about the Jews in Ukraine either. Fortunately, Ukraine is still a very tolerant country, where the richest person is a Tatar, Jews have an overwhelming majority in power and business, and only poor Ukrainians have to fight and work. However, I believe that in the end everyone gets what they deserve. Looking back, I understand that I could have been healthier, richer, lived in another place, but I did not put in the necessary efforts in the right places. However, many consider me a Jew, perhaps because I have learned a lot and often copy these talented people with increased survival skills. In my family, the word Jew meant an example to follow, and did not express contempt or hatred. I consider my wife's Jewish roots to be a family treasure and generally believe that the best thing that can happen in a man's life is to meet an intelligent woman.
Maryna went back to Poland today and said that each time it is more and more difficult for her to part with me. It was a wonderful week that we spent together. I was even able to resolve all work issues remotely.
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Wishing you all the very best in 25
Thank you Jaye!
It's good to see old friends who still drop by this thread. I wish you good health, good weather and all the best this year! May cats bring you joy and warmth!
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While the whole world is watching the war that is going on at the front, from which you can return dead (and not always) or disabled, the whole country is watching the war in the rear. I cannot call the kidnapping of people mobilization. Considering that you'll most likely be released for a bribe, this looks like good business. Mobilization is a process regulated by law, which provides for the registration of those liable for military service, fines or criminal liability for violations by citizens. But the laws do not say anything about beatings or using ambulances for camouflage. Numerous videos show how men are grabbed by unknown people and taken away in an unknown direction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRFWrp8umJM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88JxKqYcpIc&t
So the person who was beaten up should go to the army and protect that gang? It's no wonder that many run away at the first opportunity. As they say, you'll come back from prison, but most likely not from the army.
A doctor I know told about examining a Ukrainian soldier who was recently released from russian captivity. It is not news that they were beaten and tortured there, they were also shot at periodically so that russian soldiers could learn how to provide first aid. Let me remind you that russian prisoners are kept in excellent conditions and complain only about the small variety in the menu.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcPJGbpw4CM
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the best thing that can happen in a man's life is to meet an intelligent woman
This.
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I started reading Bob Woodward's book War and it's worth it if only to get to know Trump better. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_(Woodward_book)
One of the quotes from it:
Trump spoke about “bad times” as if they were inevitable. “I always like to sort of prepare for the worst. And it doesn’t sound like a very particularly nice statement,” he said. “I know times will get bad. It’s just a question when.
The Telegraph speculates that if the US and Europe stop supporting Ukraine in its war with russia, it could prompt pooteen to attack a NATO country and cause the Alliance to collapse.
Before his victory in the US presidential election, Donald Trump repeatedly stated that he could end the war in Ukraine, and that if he, not Joe Biden, were president, pooteen would never have dared to invade.
However, after he won the election by a landslide on November 5, the president-elect did not provide any details of his promised peace initiative.
The Telegraph suggests that some NATO allies may have expressed concerns to Trump and his team about how a peace settlement in favor of the russians would affect international relations and effectively reward Putin for his aggression. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/05/war-ukraine-must-end-trump-cannot-cave-to-putin/
US President-elect Donald Trump said russia's war against Ukraine is "much more difficult" now, but he hopes to end it in six months. He made the remarks at a press conference on January 7 after Congress confirmed his election victory.
He also stated that russia and the West allegedly always understood that Ukraine's membership in NATO was impossible. Moreover, an agreement was allegedly reached between the Ukrainian and russian sides, which, according to him, "would be satisfactory for Ukraine and everyone else."
"My view is that this was always the understanding. In fact, I believe that they (russia and Ukraine) had an agreement. And then Biden broke it. Biden said: no, you should be able to join NATO," - Trump is quoted by Sky News. https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-president-elect-speaking-at-second-news-conference-since-election-win-13284964?postid=8887903
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s special envoy for the war in Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has postponed a trip to Kyiv that had been scheduled for early January, Reuters reported, citing four sources with knowledge of the matter.
Kellogg is now expected to visit Ukraine after Trump’s inauguration on January 20, though no specific date has been set. The reasons for the delay remain unclear, and no plans for Kellogg to visit Moscow have been announced. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-ukraine-envoy-postpones-kyiv-trip-until-after-inauguration-2025-01-06/
On the Internet, I came across an OSINT analysis of the use of Ukrainian long-range drones in 2024:
• At least 15 ammunition depots were destroyed.
• 10 important energy infrastructure facilities were damaged.
• More than 20 industrial enterprises were attacked, including plants critical to the Russian army.
• According to the Security Service of Ukraine, 14 oil refineries were put out of action.
https://t.me/dronbomber/9802
russia launched 10,949 drones during 2024. 68% were shot down, 26% were neutralized by electronic warfare.
Almost 2,000 missiles were launched over Ukraine in 2024. More than half, namely 56%, were shot down.
russia captured over 3,600 km² in 2024. The largest losses last year were in October, November and December in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions.
https://t.me/dnepr_operativ/77748
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Preliminary Lessons from Ukraine’s Offensive Operations, 2022–23
The purpose of this report is to examine the causes of the failure of the Ukrainian offensive in 2023 to avoid the repetition of such errors in the future and to inform the regeneration of offensive combat power in NATO militaries.
The original concept of operations for the Ukrainian offensive was sound. It required 12 armoured and mechanised brigades to achieve a breakthrough along 30 km of frontage, the isolation of Tokmak within seven days, and thereafter a breakout south towards Melitopol. Tempo was supposed to prevent russia from bringing the majority of its forces to bear, so that the attacking force would need to overcome only six regiments in defence.
This concept of operation was not implemented. This arose from operational errors made by both Ukraine and its international partners. Ukraine’s international partners missed two critical decision points prior to the offensive. First, whereas russia began to transition to a war economy from May 2022 and began the mobilisation of troops from the autumn, Ukraine’s international partners did not take significant steps to address their industrial limitations. In consequence, while many nations gifted Ukraine a significant proportion of their national stocks, this did not amount to a sufficient volume of equipment to provide the doctrinal minimum of critical enablers required for the concept of operation to be executed.
The second decision point missed was when that equipment needed to arrive in Ukraine. Ukraine’s international partners wasted four months in deciding to act, so that only a part of the pledged equipment arrived in Ukraine prior to the offensive, and the Ukrainian brigades did not have enough time to train on the equipment that did arrive. The brigades were, therefore, undertrained at the start of the offensive, which accounts for a significant proportion of the tactical mistakes made during the execution of the operation.
Ukraine also made a series of errors. First, experienced troops were used to hold the line of contact and thereafter conduct fixing operations during the offensive, while the main force was for the most part newly raised. This left the lead elements with a dearth of combat experience, which led to tactical errors during the execution of the operation. Second, Ukrainian planners exacerbated their shortage of properly equipped forces by committing troops on multiple axes, which were then further resourced with ammunition and enablers, at the expense of the main effort. The combination of these two errors limited the ability of the force to operate at and maintain tempo.
The most serious error made in planning by Ukraine appears to have been the basis on which it was determined that the main effort could succeed under these circumstances. Rather than using tempo and concentration to defeat six russian regiments, it was hoped that shock action would cause russian troops to break, as had occurred around Kharkiv in 2022. Insufficient planning was done to assess how the critical conditions for such a collapse in morale could be achieved, so that this proved an overly optimistic planning assumption. In the event, the initial attacks failed, and tempo was lost, such that russia could fight the battle with the full 105,000 troops it had in the target sector.
A lesson for both Ukraine and its international partners is that operational security was inadequate, such that russia knew precisely where and approximately when the offensive was to take place. This problem was exacerbated by the fact that with only a couple of brigades properly equipped for offensive operations, russia only had to track a small number of units to determine Ukrainian intent. Given that this lack of security partly stemmed from the multinational process of organising the offensive, this should be examined carefully by NATO, which relies on comparable processes.
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-ukraines-offensive-operations-2022-23
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Aside from air strikes on frontline cities and constant fighting on the front lines, the rest of the country has spent the first days of 2025 without major air attacks or power outages. This is probably due to the warm weather and rain instead of snow, which prevents the russians from knocking out Ukraine's power grid.
In Ukraine, after a large-scale russian cyberattack, the Unified State Register of Legal Entities, Individual Entrepreneurs, and Public Organizations has been restored, the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine reported on Thursday, January 9. Work on restoring the remaining registers is ongoing. https://zn.ua/ukr/ECONOMICS/v-ukrajini-vidnoviv-robotu-jedinij-derzhrejestr.html
In Kyiv, a cat was locked in an apartment for six days after its owner was detained by the mobilization center. The man was unable to give anyone the keys to the apartment or warn anyone about the situation. Only after the neighbors noticed the man's absence and called the police, the cat was saved. https://socportal.info/ua/news/u-kievi-kit-shist-dniv-proviv-odin-pid-zamkom-bo-iogo-gospodarya-zabrali-do-ttck/
No one knows how many such cats, dogs, children, or sick, immobilized people did not wait for someone to feed them...
Some could die even before they even reach the front, but for the state this is also not a big problem. A military man suspected of killing a man through negligence at the Sumy mobilization center has been released by the court on personal recognizance. https://suspilne.media/sumy/921297-pidozruvanogo-u-vbivstvi-colovika-v-sumskomu-tck-vidpustili-pid-osobisti-zobovazanna/
The following figures speak about the scale of the losses: there are over 12,000 DNA experts waiting in line to identify the dead and missing servicemen and other individuals. Ukrainian centers that identify the dead and missing servicemen are working at their limit. And this is provided that it is possible not only to find the remains of the dead, but also to transfer them for research. https://mipl.org.ua/u-cherzi-na-identyfikacziyu-zagyblyh-i-znyklyh-bezvisty-vijskovyh-ta-inshyh-osib-stoyit-ponad-12-tysyach-dnk-ekspertyz-mvs/
The Verkhovna Rada approved a bill on a 50% discount on fines for tax evaders, because 6 million citizens did not update their data. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/320243-verkhovnaya-rada-odobrila-zakonoproekt-o-skidke-v-50-shtrafa-ttsk-dlya-uklonistov-potomu-chto-6-mln-grazhdan-ne-utochnili-dannye However, no one believes that this will force anyone to update their data.
The government is developing the possibility of employing Ukrainian men from abroad at critical enterprises in Ukraine with reservations. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cgm9mkgrpreo?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
But I personally doubt that those who could leave Ukraine at the cost of great effort and money will return under the promise of reservations, which can be easily canceled by the decision of an official of the mobilization center. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c07g4x5v802o
The new and probably last package of defense assistance to Ukraine from the United States under Biden's presidential powers includes missiles for air defense systems, auxiliary equipment for F-16 aircraft, as well as other weapons. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3946769-raketi-ppo-ta-obladnanna-dla-f16-so-u-novomu-paketi-ssa-dla-ukraini.html
Keith Kellogg, who’s President-elect Trump’s incoming special envoy to Ukraine, told Fox News “I know I’m on the clock” to quickly find a resolution to the russian war in Ukraine. “I would like to set a goal, on a personal level and professional level, I would say let’s set it at a hundred days,” Kellogg said, starting on Inauguration Day. https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/donald-trump-president-office-inauguration-01-08-25/index.html
However, no one knows what fate awaits Ukraine in light of Trump’s other statements.
On Tuesday, Donald Trump Jr. landed in Greenland, the Arctic island his father, President-elect Donald Trump, has expressed a strong desire to purchase, despite sharp statements from Greenland that it is not for sale. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/07/climate/trump-greenland-climate/index.html
US president-elect Donald Trump's threat to turn the world's second-largest country, Canada, into part of the United States by means of "economic force" represents the most serious threat to Canadian sovereignty since the War of 1812. https://news.sky.com/story/trumps-threat-to-turn-canada-into-part-of-the-us-represents-most-serious-threat-since-war-of-1812-13285471
President Volodymyr Zelensky at a meeting of the Contact Group for Defense in the Ramstein format called for the deployment of partner contingents in Ukraine. https://espreso.tv/suspilstvo-zelenskiy-pribuv-do-nimechchini-na-zasidannya-ramshtayn
I’m thinking about the fact that China can send a couple of dozens of millions of its soldiers to train in real fighting minds, just as Northern Korea has already built up...
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Ukraine's public debt reached about UAH 7 trillion at the end of 2024. Thus, the ratio of public debt to GDP reached 92%, according to an analysis of the results of the state budget execution in 2024, carried out by the Forbes Ukraine Analytical Department. This is the total public debt, which, in addition to Ukraine's direct debt, also includes debts guaranteed by the state.
https://forbes.ua/news/derzhavniy-borg-ukraini-syagnuv-92-vvp-otsinka-forbes-09012025-26148
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There was another drone attack at night and even a house in Kyiv was damaged, but I slept well and heard nothing. https://gordonua.com/ukr/news/military-actions/u-kijevi-ulamki-drona-vluchili-v-bahatopoverkhivku-kmva-1729464.html
Warm weather on the one hand reduces the sum in the heating bill, and on the other hand favors the spread of viruses. People in transport and in the office sneeze and cough and I do not feel very well. Finally, the end of the working week and I meet the weekend with relief.
However, the very active start of this year suggests that many interesting events will happen in 2025.
In Kharkiv, a lawyer was prevented from entering the premises of a military medical commission, and physical force was used against the woman. The incident occurred in one of the city's mobilization centers. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/320386-v-kharkove-sotrudniki-ttsk-primenili-silu-k-advokatu-lubinets-nazval-intsident-pozorom
A criminal in prison has the right to a lawyer, but not one who may die tomorrow. This gives an idea of the power and income possessed by those who decide who will go to die in their place tomorrow.
It is strange that the state expects its citizens to comply with the laws, while it itself violates them with impunity.
On the contrary, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a bill that proposes to simplify the mechanism for bringing draft evaders to justice for violating the rules of military registration and mobilization legislation. Now a person can be found guilty in absentia and without evidence and immediately have their property seized in case of non-payment of the fine. Many people will find out about this already during the arrest and sale of property. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/320307-verkhovnaya-rada-odobrila-zakonoproekt-ob-uproschenii-nalozheniya-ttsk-zaochnykh-shtrafov
It seems that the authorities are not going to abolish martial law and all restrictions even after the cessation of hostilities. Deputies justify this with security, and people believe that this will allow them not to hold elections and remain in power longer. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/320334-voennoe-polozhenie-ne-otmenyat-mgnovenno-posle-prekrascheniya-boevykh-deystviy-yaroslav-yurchishin
Law enforcement officers are conducting over 600 simultaneous searches as part of the first stage of a special operation to block the channels for taking men of draft age abroad. https://m.censor.net/ua/videonews/3529478/politsiya-perkryvaye-shlyahy-dlya-nelegalnogo-peretynu-kordonu
Someone calculated that one and a half brigades could have been formed from the police officers involved in this operation alone. The western borders must be guarded more reliably than the eastern ones!
German Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz is blocking a new large package of military aid to Ukraine, proposed by the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Defense, Der Spiegel writes. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ukraine-krieg-olaf-scholz-blockiert-milliarden-paket-fuer-fuer-kiew-a-15318d4e-bc41-40e1-9a31-1d57409db2d5
Trump planning meeting with pooteen to end ‘bloody mess’ of war in Ukraine. The president-elect’s return has sparked fears in Kyiv that he may cut off military aid to force Ukraine into a disadvantageous peace deal. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2025/01/10/donald-trump-meeting-with-putin-end-russia-ukraine-war/
And I remembered a quote from Woodward's book War: "President Biden and President putin met at Villa La Grange, an 18th century French-style manor house on the shores of Lake Geneva in Switzerland, on June 16, 2021.
On Fox News, Trump declared that Biden’s summit with putin was “a good day for russia.” “I don’t see what we got out of it,” Trump said to Fox News anchor Sean Hannity. “We didn’t get anything. We gave a very big stage to russia, and we got nothing.”
Time will tell for whom the meeting between Trump and puteen will be a good day, the very fact of which disgusts me.
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The President Elect is not even in office yet but has created great consternation amongst our close allies by expressing his desire to take over Canada and Greenland, even sending Donald Jr. to visit Greenland. Putin must be dreading the prospect of negotiating an end to the Ukraine war with such a master of international relations and realpolitik.
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The President Elect is not even in office yet but has created great consternation amongst our close allies by expressing his desire to take over Canada and Greenland, even sending Donald Jr. to visit Greenland. Putin must be dreading the prospect of negotiating an end to the Ukraine war with such a master of international relations and realpolitik.
I have the impression that the world is ruled by madmen and there is no point in trying to understand them. Apparently, a normal person would never want to go into politics and waste his life on it. In the case of Trump, it seems that we will see something different and in many ways the opposite of what Biden did. Perhaps the fear of escalation will be replaced by its build-up.
Swiss Foreign Ministry spokesman Nicolas Bidault said the country is ready to organize a summit between US President-elect Donald Trump and Kremlin leader vladimir putin if both sides want it. https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/ukraine-news-schweiz-bereit-fuer-trump-putin-gipfeltreffen-139184721619
I don't really understand what the point is. On the one hand, The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for putin on March 17, 2023. https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and
On the other hand, an arrest warrant for putin from ICC will not prevent him from coming to Switzerland — the countryʼs government allegedly has the right to make an exception if it is necessary for peace negotiations.
Also, the House passed a bill on to sanction International Criminal Court officials – in response to the court issuing an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/09/politics/house-icc-sanctions-bill-israel/index.html
This policy of double standards makes the existence of such institutions as the ICC and all its decisions a fiction. I would like to hope that putin will be arrested in Switzerland and Trump will fulfill his promise to end the war in 24 hours, but I am too old to believe in fairy tales.
Despite the constant air raid sirens, this weekend passed quietly. However, this does not improve the mood. Lately I rarely turn on the radio and sometimes I feel like I have lost interest in it. The senselessness and cruelty of what is happening causes disgust and depression. But I believe that any skill requires maintaining it with regular exercises. A few months ago I found a job and I no longer have as much free time as before. So I try to make a few contacts on the weekends so as not to forget the Morse code.
One of the most debated questions is why the russians were not defeated when they began to retreat in 2022. The main version is that Biden was afraid that the russians would use nuclear weapons and he ordered to allow the russians to retreat without being completely defeated. But they did not use it even when the Ukrainian army attacked Russia in the Kursk region.
It is not known for certain what is happening in the Kursk region, the raid on which the Ukrainian authorities explained by the need to create better conditions for bargaining with russia in future negotiations, but according to the monitoring resource DeepState, the enemy has advanced and is approximately 6.5 km from the Dnipropetrovsk region. It seems that, if we are lucky, the Kursk region will be exchanged for Dnipropetrovsk, and not for the previously captured Donetsk or Luhansk regions...
https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/687977-6-5-km-do-dnipropetrovskoji-oblasti-zs-rf-prosunulisya-pid-pokrovskom-karta
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“All the war-propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, comes invariably from people who are not fighting.”
― George Orwell, Homage to Catalonia
It is interesting to hear different versions of what is happening and how the state policy regarding mobilization is explained.
When the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, was appointed to this position, his main short-term task was to create a rotation mechanism. He promised this at the level of the Verkhovna Rada Defense Committee, People's Deputy, member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Fedir Venislavsky said in an interview.
The point was to provide servicemen with the opportunity to take leave without harming their combat readiness, and combat brigades that had been performing tasks at the front for several months – the opportunity to withdraw to the rear, where they could rest and reform. However, according to Venislavsky, "the situation at the front did not allow this to be done as desired."
https://24tv.ua/venislavskiy-rozpoviv-shho-zavadilo-provesti-rotatsiyu-viyskovosluzhbovtsiv_n2727909
One military man asks why not rotate the police and the military, at least for a while? He is sure that after spending three years at the front he will be able to patrol the streets no worse than the police.
Some people think that there is a political will to terrorize the people by workers of mobilization centers, the goal is to accustom the people to obedience today, in order to stay in power longer tomorrow.
Perhaps all sides are right, but this does not solve the problem of either mobilization or demobilization. Perhaps the point is that mobilization in our case is not general, although it is called so.
The state calls everyone who avoids military service evaders and tries to persecute them, but is very inconsistent in this, because it must be admitted that the entire reserved state service, along with the police and other untouchables, are also essentially evaders. And the problem is not that someone is an evader, but that he is not part of the government, because as soon as you become a policeman or a civil servant, you immediately receive legal exemption from military service.
I understand that it is convenient to blame everything on the injustice of the war and the lack of competence of those responsible for mobilizing the people, but one cannot help but notice the huge amounts of money surrounding these processes and those who gain an advantage at the expense of others. But it seems to me that the worst consequence of such a policy is that fewer and fewer people understand why they should defend such a country.
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The President Elect is not even in office yet but has created great consternation amongst our close allies by expressing his desire to take over Canada and Greenland, even sending Donald Jr. to visit Greenland. Putin must be dreading the prospect of negotiating an end to the Ukraine war with such a master of international relations and realpolitik.
A maneuver to make the EU and Canada nervous about free-riding (i.e., being dependent) on US military protection, and motivate them to up their own military spending. From what I hear on DW news, it at least has them talking about it. If the one you've become dependent on suddenly raises the prospect of being unpredictable and possibly taking away some of your own territory, the needed response is obvious.
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A maneuver to make the EU and Canada nervous about free-riding (i.e., being dependent) on US military protection, and motivate them to up their own military spending. From what I hear on DW news, it at least has them talking about it. If the one you've become dependent on suddenly raises the prospect of being unpredictable and possibly taking away some of your own territory, the needed response is obvious.
I understand that. However there are more mature, appropriate and far less chaotic ways to do that which don’t involve giving Putin, Xi, and other authoritarians a green light to bully their neighbors. If it’s acceptable for the US to threaten force to take territory from countries (two allies, no less!) in order to win some concessions, then it’s acceptable for Xi to do it to Taiwan and other pacific/SE Asia nations, and Putin to do it to Ukraine and other European countries.
Trump’s childish approach has just cut some of the moral and international political ground out from under his feet and by extension that of the United States, since he will lead it in a week and be the most powerful person on the planet.
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(Opinion) I would totally agree with you, had the countries involved ever lived up to their military spending GDP commitments under NATO, previous to the Ukraine invasion. But of course, they didn't, and had no intention of ever doing so. There is absolutely no reason those countries can't spend as much of their GDP on military defense, as the USA does (currently 3.5%, but in the past our military expenditures have been much higher than that).
Being "nice" and "patient" and "statesmanlike" hasn't worked to get the Europeans to allocate less to butter and more to guns, to use an old Econ 101 phrase. So I'm personally OK with the US not being taken advantage of, anymore.
It is being reported that the Danes have now sent private messages to the new Administration, offering to let the US increase military presence in Greenland, something just about every strategist feels is essential to blunt China's designs on the Arctic (they want to own Arctic land, in order to gain a seat on, and manipulate, the Arctic Council). Russia, of course, would like to have bases in Greenland in order to piss on western progress, as they devolve further into the dark ages and want to drag everyone else along with them. (/Opinion)
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Last night, Ukraine and russia exchanged drone attacks. No damage was reported in Ukraine, while chemical plants and military facilities were hit in russia. It is said to be the largest Ukrainian drone attack since 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypg2z780go
Nevertheless, many are concerned about the news about the transfer of a large number of personnel from the Air Defense and Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to infantry units. According to the orders, hundreds of servicemen are planned to be transferred from each tactical aviation brigade to the infantry. The transfer will mainly involve aviation technicians who have been trained to maintain aircraft for years. https://meta.ua/uk/news/war-in-ukraine/251302-vid-povitryanih-sil-vimagayut-perevedennya-velikoyi-kilkosti-osobovogo-skladu-v-pihotu-viiskovi/
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine commented on the information about the transfer of Air Force specialists to infantry units. The General Staff calls this step forced, but at the same time emphasizes that specialists in acute shortage will not be transferred. This decision is due to the fact that the situation at the front is difficult, there is a lack of infantry in many areas. https://glavred.net/ukraine/vynuzhdennyy-shag-v-genshtabe-prokommentirovali-perevod-voennyh-ps-v-pehotu-10630556.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has once again refused to lower the mobilization age at the request of Western allies. The head of state stressed that the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine primarily need weapons and equipment. https://mobilizatsiya.novyny.live/zelenskii-poiasniv-chomu-vin-proti-mobilizatsiyi-18-litnikh-226585.html
Meanwhile, the word of the year in Ukraine has become the neologism "busification." This very word, which refers to forced mobilization under an accelerated procedure, was at the center of public attention last year. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c2ld5gjjnd1o
Mobilization sometimes even generates funny stories. People's Deputy Olga Vasylevska-Smaglyuk stated that a mobilized person in the Transcarpathian region opened the office of the head of the military registration and enlistment office with a pick and stole 27 thousand euros from there. Representatives of the mobilization center deny this, and the police officially reported that no one contacted them with a report of the theft.
https://ua.korrespondent.net/ukraine/4747582-u-ttsk-sprostuvaly-informatsiui-pro-kradizhku-27-tysiach
The situation at the front is consistently bad. The Metinvest company of the richest man in Ukraine, Renat Akhmetov, is suspending the work of the Pokrovskaya Coal Group - due to the change in the situation on the front line, the shortage of electricity and the deterioration of the security situation. The Pokrovskaya Coal Group is the energy heart of Ukrainian metallurgy, which provided a large part of export revenues to the Ukrainian budget. Ukraine is rapidly transforming into an agrarian country...
https://www.unian.ua/economics/energetics/metinvest-ahmetova-prizupinyaye-robotu-shahti-v-pokrovsku-pracivnikiv-evakuyuyut-vugillya-dlya-metalurgiv-zaminyat-amerikanskim-12883815.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
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On the night of January 15, russia attacked the Lviv region with cruise missiles. Enemy Kalibr missiles hit two critical infrastructure facilities in the Drohobych and Stryi districts. The targets were energy facilities, in particular gas infrastructure. russia launched more than 40 missiles, of which at least 30 were destroyed, as well as more than 70 attack drones. https://glavred.net/ukraine/rf-atakovala-ukrainu-yadernymi-raketami-bolvankami-v-defense-express-nazvali-cel-10630922.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
Also, during a massive attack on Ukraine on the night of January 15, russian troops used Kh-55SM cruise missiles with full-size warhead mock-ups. But these missiles are standard carriers of nuclear warheads. The purpose of such actions is an attempt to confuse and exhaust Ukrainian air defenses. https://defence-ua.com/news/rf_znovu_vikoristala_dlja_udaru_po_ukrajini_krilati_raketi_h_55sm_z_imitatorom_jadernogo_zarjadu-17709.html
During a visit to Warsaw, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that about 33-34% of the weapons used by the Defense Forces on the battlefield are produced in Ukraine. At the same time, about 30% are supplied by Europe, and another 40% by the United States. https://gazeta.ua/articles/life/_blizko-tretini-ozbroyennya-yake-sili-oboroni-zastosovuyut-na-poli-boyu-viroblyayetsya-v-ukrayini/1205147
But this proportion does not replace the general fact of a total shortage of weapons.
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump now concede that the Ukraine war will take months or even longer to resolve, a sharp reality check on his biggest foreign policy promise - to strike a peace deal on his first day in the White House. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-advisers-concede-ukraine-peace-deal-is-months-away-2025-01-15/
russia will demand Ukraine drastically cut back military ties with the NATO alliance and become a neutral state with a limited army in any talks with incoming US President Donald Trump, according to people familiar with the matter. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/putin-trump-talks-would-see-russia-demand-ukraine-cut-back-nato-ties?embedded-checkout=true&leadSource=uverify%20wall
But every war ends eventually. Even Israel and Hamas have already reached a ceasefire agreement, which includes the release of hostages and a ceasefire.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c3rwqpj70ert
I read an interview with Pavlo Klimkin, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine in 2014-2019. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cq5g2p8l211o
He says a lot of interesting things that need to be done in the face of uncertainty about European and US aid. Including what needs to be conveyed personally to Trump, on whose attitude to Ukraine a lot will depend. But I don’t understand why he thinks that Zelensky should do this. As far as I understand, Trump has a good memory and does not forgive anyone. In our case, the fate of Ukraine will be unenviable if it is not possible to separate the regime from the country.
Klimkin believes that if the active phase of the war is terminated, Western aid will decrease significantly, and the russians will immediately begin to attack in non-military ways. The main threat to them will remain the very fact of the existence of an independent Ukraine. And Ukraine and its society must change greatly in order not to lose the state.
So far, martial law has been extended until May 9, and with it the absence of elections. A strange coincidence - the date is striking because it is sacred for russians, who celebrate on this day, as they believe, their victory over fascism in particular and in World War II in general. In the minds of russians, it is they who saved the world.
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Russia (the fascists) defeated the fascists in WW2... I have heard this myth before, many times. If they weren't serious about it, and also weren't clueless about the irony of that, it would be the most cynical joke ever told.
Trump should not have said that he would end the war on day one. Many silly promises are made on the campaign trail, but that one will be remembered as absurdly out of line. It reminds me of 2008 when Barack Obama said that his election would be the start of the planet starting to heal, and the oceans starting to subside. Both of these quotes deserve to be contrasted against the wisdom of King Croesus, who had to instruct his ministers that he couldn't order the tide to stop coming in (or something like that, I don't recall exactly).
That Russia is striking as far west as Lviv is really something. I wonder what they think the strategic target is, there?
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Russia (the fascists) defeated the fascists in WW2... I have heard this myth before, many times. If they weren't serious about it, and also weren't clueless about the irony of that, it would be the most cynical joke ever told.
Trump should not have said that he would end the war on day one. Many silly promises are made on the campaign trail, but that one will be remembered as absurdly out of line. It reminds me of 2008 when Barack Obama said that his election would be the start of the planet starting to heal, and the oceans starting to subside. Both of these quotes deserve to be contrasted against the wisdom of King Croesus, who had to instruct his ministers that he couldn't order the tide to stop coming in (or something like that, I don't recall exactly).
That Russia is striking as far west as Lviv is really something. I wonder what they think the strategic target is, there?
If you know only one language and practically the only source of information for you is official government propaganda, then you will be sure of the things that it tells you from every iron. You don’t know another version and can neither compare nor verify.
It is not what Trump says that matters, but what he does. Obviously, everything he does will affect Ukraine. But even direct assistance to Ukraine will mean that he will do it in the interests of the United States. And I agree with Klimkin that the most important task of Ukraine is to show him all the benefits for him and the United States from supporting Ukraine. Although I don’t know who and what Ukraine is for him. I hope that he and his team communicate with other Ukrainians besides those who are now in power.
There are at least three important targets for russian missiles in the west of Ukraine. These are transport hubs, primarily railway hubs, through which weapons and supplies are delivered. This is energy infrastructure through which electricity and gas are transited from Europe to Ukraine and back. These are underground gas storage facilities where Ukrainian and European gas reserves are stored.
Europe is buying russian gas at an unprecedented rate in 2025, spending billions of dollars the Kremlin can use to fund its war in Ukraine just weeks after the end of a major transit agreement raised hopes the continent may break its dependency on Moscow.
Data collected by commodities intelligence firm Kpler and analyzed by POLITICO reveals that in the first 15 days of 2025, the European Union's 27 countries imported 837,300 metric tons of liquefied natural gas from russia. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-devouring-russian-gas-at-record-speed-despite-cut-off-sanctions-war-ukraine/
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If you know only one language and practically the only source of information for you is official government propaganda, then you will be sure of the things that it tells you from every iron. You don’t know another version and can neither compare nor verify.
It is not what Trump says that matters, but what he does. Obviously, everything he does will affect Ukraine. But even direct assistance to Ukraine will mean that he will do it in the interests of the United States. And I agree with Klimkin that the most important task of Ukraine is to show him all the benefits for him and the United States from supporting Ukraine. Although I don’t know who and what Ukraine is for him. I hope that he and his team communicate with other Ukrainians besides those who are now in power.
There are at least three important targets for russian missiles in the west of Ukraine. These are transport hubs, primarily railway hubs, through which weapons and supplies are delivered. This is energy infrastructure through which electricity and gas are transited from Europe to Ukraine and back. These are underground gas storage facilities where Ukrainian and European gas reserves are stored.
Europe is buying russian gas at an unprecedented rate in 2025, spending billions of dollars the Kremlin can use to fund its war in Ukraine just weeks after the end of a major transit agreement raised hopes the continent may break its dependency on Moscow.
Data collected by commodities intelligence firm Kpler and analyzed by POLITICO reveals that in the first 15 days of 2025, the European Union's 27 countries imported 837,300 metric tons of liquefied natural gas from russia. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-devouring-russian-gas-at-record-speed-despite-cut-off-sanctions-war-ukraine/
I do not watch American news programs very much. I mostly watch German, UK, French, and Canadian news. The reason is, I like to know what is happening in those countries, and I also view American news networks as being biased either to the right or the left. I'm not unaware that foreign news is also biased, but they have a distance from America that gives them some objectivity, or at least, a different set of biases about America. Personal preference on my part.
I think it is wise for the Ukraine to focus on convincing Trump of the benefits to the US for standing by an independent Ukraine. He is 13 years older than I am and so was close enough to WW2 to understand that European wars eventually drag us into them. He played the conservative voters by dissing support for Ukraine, but he's going to be rational about the issue now that the election is over. Only the most hardcore right wing in the US believes that we should just tell Ukraine to "pound salt." Trump knows this, and won't be listening to them when it comes to actions. Words? Yes. Actions? No.
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I do not watch American news programs very much. I mostly watch German, UK, French, and Canadian news. The reason is, I like to know what is happening in those countries, and I also view American news networks as being biased either to the right or the left. I'm not unaware that foreign news is also biased, but they have a distance from America that gives them some objectivity, or at least, a different set of biases about America. Personal preference on my part.
I didn't mean you, I meant the russians. And they don't even have right or left, Democrats or Republicans. They have only one point of view - the official one, which easily explains to illiterate and uncultured people why America is to blame for everything, the whole world wants to attack them, and the only person who can protect them is pooteen.
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Once again, I was so tired during the week that I decided to stay home on Friday and work remotely. Especially since half of the day was spent meeting with bosses and discussing business development strategy. Apparently, after I successfully organized processes in one of the areas, and a person who did not manage his area left us, I was suddenly offered to take on three other areas, two of which are completely new to me. Also, there is less and less legal work left in my work, but now I even have a personal assistant from among the most capable young employees. Well, now I will have to learn new things again and develop new projects. The number of people will also increase and it will probably be necessary to look for a new office.
The number of people will also increase and it looks like we'll have to look for a new office.
I told the boss an old Soviet joke about how to increase people's efficiency and he found it funny.
Army. The sergeant gave the task to a team of a "young" soldier and four "old" soldiers to mow the grass. The "young" soldier immediately went to mow the grass, and the 4 "old" soldiers sat in the shade under a tree and thought about how to go on leave. The first one says: "I know. I'll go to the sergeant and offer to increase efficiency and for that he'll let me go." He comes to the sergeant and says: "There's a "young" mowing the grass with one scythe, so if you give him a scythe in each hand, he'll work twice as efficiently." The sergeant let him go. The 2nd "old" comes and says: "The "young" is working inefficiently. He mows in one direction, and in the other he's idling (swinging the scythe). Now if we add blades on the other side to the scythe, then both movements will be working." The sergeant let him go too. A third one comes and says: "We need to hook a cart to the "young", then he will mow and put the grass in the cart." They let him go too. The fourth "old" walks around the "young", who mows with two scythes with four blades and a cart on his back, thinking what else can be added. The "young" stops, looks with hatred at the fourth "old" and says almost crying: "What, are you looking? Put a lantern on my forehead, so I can work at night!"
The nasty weather and lack of sun are depressing and I want to sleep all the time. I also feel weak from the constant attacks of viruses because so many people around are sneezing and coughing.
There wasn't even an air raid alarm today. But yesterday, drones attacked Kyiv in the middle of the day, marking the first visit of Sir Keir Starmer as British prime minister. Unlike other British prime ministers who have rushed to Kyiv, Starmer arrived in the country after only six months in office. He pledged long-term support in the face of Russia’s “illegal and barbaric invasion.”
The agreement, which Britain and Ukraine signed on Thursday, includes increased military and economic aid, enhanced military cooperation in maritime security and drone technology, as well as health. Britain has already provided Ukraine with £12.8 billion (over $15 billion) in support, and has also pledged to provide £3 billion ($3.7 billion) in military aid each year “as needed.”
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cd9qxp9gj35o
https://toneto.net/news/kultura/ros--ya-napravila-dron-na-ki--v-p--d-chas-v--zitu-starmera--progrim--li-vibuhi--us---podrobits----foto-ta-v--deo-u-neb---nad-stolitseyu-zaf--ksuvali-vorogiy-dron-nadzvichayn---pod----
A new mobile anti-aircraft installation Gravehawk, developed and tested in Ukraine by the United Kingdom, was also officially presented. They will also be delivered to Ukraine. https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ne_grejtful_a_gravehawk_scho_tse_za_novi_zrk_dlja_ukrajini_peredaje_velika_britanija_u_kilkosti_15_odinits-17723.html
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Wlad, I hope that your additional responsibilities at work don’t involve a lantern (yet?) ;D Seriously, I’m happy to hear that your work continues to go well!
The Gravehawk system seems to be a cost effective solution for defense against cheaper and more numerous aerial attack platforms. I wonder though how effective old IR seeking missiles would be against propeller driven drones, since I assume they were designed to seek jet engine exhaust. But hopefully that has all been considered and overcome.
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Thank you Bob!
The longer I work for this company, the more I am convinced of what interesting people work there and what unique things they do. For me, the difficulty now is not so much in the volume of work, but in its complexity. I have to develop and implement something that few people are even able to understand. Anyone can drive a car, but few drivers know how it works. However, I am more interested in making unique things than mowing grass with two scythes with four blades. On the other hand, if you develop a good mechanism, you can scale it up and watch others mow the grass using your tools. Perhaps this is how the lawn mower was invented. All this would make me completely happy if it were not for the circumstances in which I find myself.
Yesterday, powerful electronic warfare stations of the russian army were turned on in Crimea. Thus, there were failures in the operation of the Flightradar air traffic tracking service - the location of aircraft was shown hundreds of kilometers above the Black Sea closer to Crimea, while the aircraft were actually over the coast of Turkey. The location of sea vessels was also tracked with errors, according to data from the Marinetraffic service. https://sprotyv.info/news/rosiyani-zadiyali-v-krimu-potuzhni-stanczi%d1%97-reb-%d1%94-nebezpeka-dlya-litakiv-ta-korabliv-u-chornomu-mori/
Today, I and millions of others were awakened in the night by explosions in several major cities, including Kyiv. In Kyiv, two of four ballistic missiles were shot down, which were again aimed at a military plant. In addition to it, houses around it were damaged. The Internet is full of photos of a destroyed metro station and McDonald's. Only because it was not daytime, relatively few people were hurt.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyee4zx3g5o
The situation in Ukraine reminds me of the situation in Israel and Gaza. Long-overdue ceasefire may stop the killing but won't end the conflict https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy8p95x04z8o
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months, people familiar with the matter said. The outgoing Biden administration on Friday imposed the most disruptive sanctions on russia’s oil trade by any Western power to date. The move created an open question about how Trump views the measures, given his commitment to quickly ending the war in Ukraine.
There are two main approaches under consideration by the Trump team. One set of policy recommendations — if the incoming administration believes a resolution to the Ukraine war is in sight — involves some good-faith measures to benefit sanctioned russian oil producers that could help seal a peace deal, said the people, requesting anonymity as the deliberations are private. A second option would build on the sanctions, ramping up pressure even further to increase leverage, they said. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-16/trump-team-readies-oil-sanctions-plan-for-russia-deal-iran-squeeze?srnd=homepage-europe
It seems to me, and this is confirmed by the whining of the russians, that the greatest contagion for russia is the possible joining of the efforts of the USA and China, which together can simply tear russia to pieces.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President-elect Donald Trump had a telephone conversation on January 17. This was reported by the Chinese state news agency Xinhua. The Chinese side has not yet disclosed the details of the conversation, but Trump called the call "very successful" for both Beijing and Washington on the social network X.
According to China Central Television CCTV, the politicians exchanged views on the war in Ukraine and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and also agreed to create strategic communication channels and maintain regular contacts on key issues of common interest to both countries. https://gordonua.com/ukr/news/politics/si-tszinpin-proviv-telefonnu-rozmovu-iz-trampom-hovorili-pro-vijnu-v-ukrajini-1730263.html
Meanwhile, in Moscow, the presidents of russia and Iran, Vladimir pooteen and Masoud Pezeshkian, signed an agreement on strategic partnership. The head of the Foreign Ministry of the Islamic Republic, Abbas Araqchi, emphasized that the agreement does not talk about a military alliance or any specific goals. According to the head of the Foreign Ministry of Iran, the main task of the agreement is to "give a long-term perspective" to relations between the countries. He also specified that the agreement is "based on respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries" and "is not directed against any third party." Interestingly, within the framework of the agreement, Iran does not intend to recognize Crimea and other occupied Ukrainian territories. Nevertheless, one of the main aspects of russian-Iranian cooperation is the mutual supply of weapons.https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ckgxxq127pqo
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Also, a lot of interesting things are happening in the country.
"Employees of the State Tax Service should have access to the financial data of Ukrainians, which is currently a banking secret," Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said. "Banking secrecy protects thieves and criminals," he added. Source: https://biz.censor.net/n3530453
The National Bank of Ukraine opposed the minister's proposal. In its statement, the regulator noted that uncontrolled and unlimited access to such information is unacceptable.
"The National Bank denies providing uncontrolled and unlimited extrajudicial access to banking secrecy to any body. By court decision, law enforcement officers and tax authorities may obtain access to information containing banking secrecy, but for this they need to provide arguments of justification, expediency and the existence of grounds for obtaining such information, which is an important safeguard for restricting the access of regulatory authorities to private information about a person," the statement says.
Stressing the importance of personal data protection, the National Bank emphasized that the presence of a socially significant purpose cannot automatically justify the disclosure of banking secrecy. In addition, the regulator drew attention to the fact that in the European Union, the protection of personal financial data is an integral part of the rule of law, and any unjustified expansion of access to banking information violates European values.
The National Bank also added the importance of preserving the institution of banking secrecy to maintain trust in the banking system in Ukraine, which is important for the stability of the country's financial sector. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/321021-bankovskaya-tayna-ne-menee-vazhna-chem-prezumptsiya-nevinovnosti-nbu
I recently saw an article by my friend Oleksandr Chernykh, with whom I worked together for some time, and with whose opinion I agree. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/challenging-fit-british-shoe-ukrainian-foot-alexandr-chernykh-f5r1e/?trackingId=Abs5n0DBQ6STll%2BGqLH6rA%3D%3D
British colleagues often forget that Ukraine’s legal establishment is a slightly modified Soviet system. In London, prosecutors and judges are selected from barristers. In Ukraine, it is a separate militarized career. Prosecutors here are akin to a “super police force” with subordination, shifts, and militarized procedures modeled after the USSR.
Consequently, defense attorneys are treated as adversaries—class enemies.
Prosecutors risk dismissal for acquittals. This mindset, especially among leadership, prevails. Even if a defense attorney transitions into prosecution, the reporting system and “conviction-oriented” statistics quickly alter their views.
Acquittals in Ukraine are seen as a crime, prompting prosecutors to drag out cases with evident and objective innocence for years—seven to fifteen years or more. Why? To avoid acquittal statistics.
Regional courts often function as extensions of investigative offices. When I practiced criminal law (10 years ago), in 99% of cases, I waited for hearings in the court corridor while the prosecutor, investigator, and judge had tea in the judge’s office. When the arrested person in handcuffs was brought in, I entered alongside them, and three individuals formally read something out. Meanwhile, the prosecutor, sipping tea next to the judge, provided explanations and instructions. Occasionally, they listened to defense attorneys with a smile: “Go on, show us your circus, what evidence?” Decisions were already printed. Now simmular sitiation even in Anticurruption courts.
Can you imagine such a scenario in England or Scotland? Adversarial proceedings? Presumption of innocence?
Another enchanting statement from Deputy Minister of Economy Andriy Telyupa, who noted that the Ukrainian economy, despite the war, is demonstrating renewed growth. Thus, the level of GDP per capita exceeded the indicators recorded before the war and amounted to 3.6%. https://forex.ua/ua/ukrayina-popry-vijnu-vyjshla-na-rekordnyj-vvp-na-dushu-naselennya-minekonomiky.html
Apparently, the authorities believe that they can be proud of this, but for those who have not studied economics, it is worth recalling that GDP per capita is an economic indicator that reflects the average volume of goods and services produced per inhabitant of the country for a certain period, usually a year. It is calculated as the ratio of the total GDP of the state to the size of its population. And for a correct comparison, it is necessary to take into account how much the population of Ukraine has decreased over three years and what is the share of foreign money in the cost of goods. Few people pay attention that after each joyful boasting of the authorities that Western partners have given more money, Ukraine's national debt increases accordingly.
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In Ukraine, students who fail the basic military training exam or refuse to take the oath will be expelled from universities, Deputy Defense Minister Serhiy Melnyk said. https://www.unian.ua/society/viyna-v-ukrajini-studentiv-yaki-ne-skladut-ispit-iz-zagalnoviyskovoji-pidgotovki-vidrahuyut-12888273.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
A message appeared on the Internet, the authenticity of which cannot be verified, that children at school were playing mobilization and beat one of the students. https://t.me/kievinfo_kyiv/59580
Lawyer Maria Naselenko, who has a disability due to an illness contracted during military service, was beaten at the Buchanan mobilization center. According to the victim, the military took revenge on her for providing legal assistance to a conscript who was illegally detained in the facility. The Kyiv Region Bar Council reported this. https://radako.com.ua/pobyttya-advokatky-mariyi-naselenko-u-buchanskomu-tczk-vyklyk-pravovij-derzhavi/
Against this background, you don’t pay much attention to such trifles as increasing taxes on parcels. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/320784-grazhdane-smogut-poluchat-posylki-stoimostyu-do-45-evro-bez-nalogooblozheniya-esli-posylki-posylayutsya-im-bezvozmezdno-fizlitsami-getmantsev-anonsiroval-zakonoproekt
There are currently over a million Ukrainian citizens in Germany who moved to German cities after the war began. These are mainly women and children, but they are being offered to be sent back to their homeland "right now." This demand was made by the head of the Alternative for Germany faction in the Bavarian state parliament, Katrin Ebner-Steiner. https://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/bayern-afd-klausur-abschiebung-fluechtlinge-ukraine-schliessung-moscheen-grenzen-lux.J3Cn7G2v4a1VukhyyshojU
Eastern European nations confronting a plethora of economic threats fuelled by war on their doorstep may face fresh pressure if peace is reached in Ukraine - from tight labour markets that fuel inflation thanks to an exodus of Ukrainian workers. "Demography is a risk, and it's one that a resolution of the war in Ukraine will make worse, because some of those Ukrainians will go back home," Charlotte Ruhe, managing director for Central and South Eastern Europe at the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development said at the Invisso Central and Eastern European Forum in Vienna. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-migrant-exit-could-squeeze-eastern-europes-economies-2025-01-16/
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Fortunately for the Ukrainians in Germany, the conservative party has pledged to not cooperate with the AfD, meaning immigration policies will not likely change for at least two years.
Besides that, it is a foolish statement that the AfD has made about Ukranian refugees, as the immigrants that are causing the problems in German society are Muslim Africans and Middle Eastern erst, not Ukrainians!
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The main event of today in the world is Trump's inauguration. Although there are few countries, well, maybe except Panama, that will be so impacted by the new administration in the USA.
I looked and thought what it reminded me of. I have seen such a narcissistic president somewhere, who believes in his own exceptionalism and infallibility, promises the people simple solutions to complex problems and is surrounded by oligarchs who helped him get a position, and he helped them earn even more money.
And it seemed that only his wife stood out from the crowd, not sharing its jubilation, dressed in a strict suit and covering her face with a hat. No one knows and feels her husband better than his wife and what his intentions will lead to.
On Monday, January 20, hours before the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, russian dictator Vladimir pooteen held a meeting with the permanent members of the russian Security Council. According to a published part of the meeting, pooteen congratulated Trump on his inauguration and expressed his readiness to conduct an “equal and mutually respectful dialogue” with the administration of new US President Donald Trump. https://t.me/agentstvonews/8856
In his speech, Trump said he wants to be a peacemaker. I hope he can do that, as there are still conflicts in the world that need to be stopped.
Lebanon's new president Joseph Aoun stressed to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres the urgency of an Israeli military withdrawal as stipulated by a ceasefire deal that ended the Israel-Hezbollah war in November. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-new-president-stresses-urgency-israeli-withdrawal-south-under-truce-2025-01-18/
And all those who were not invited to Trump's inauguration went to Switzerland for the 2025 Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) which takes place from 20-24 January in Davos. https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/01/20/davos-2025-what-to-expect-at-this-years-world-economic-forum
Forcing Ukraine to negotiate with russia before it regains the advantage on the battlefield would be a catastrophic mistake, officials in Kyiv have warned ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration. This is reported by the British newspaper The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/01/18/ukraine-warns-trump-that-early-peace-talks-would-be-fatal/
The benefits for the Ukrainian authorities of continuing the war have been understood - while the war is going on, this is a reason not to hold elections but to remain in power and earn money. But from the point of view of the average Ukrainian, it is not obvious how much better for Ukraine peace in a few months or even years, when even more territories and people will be lost, is than stopping the war now.
At the end of 2022, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, suggested that Kyiv enter into negotiations with Moscow, taking advantage of its successes on the front, but Secretary of State Anthony Blinken opposed it and insisted that Kyiv continue fighting after the successful Kharkiv operation, the NYT writes.
"After the withdrawal of the American military contingent from Afghanistan, some Republicans demanded Blinken's resignation, perceiving it as a fiasco. However, at the beginning of a full-scale war against Ukraine, his "finest hour" came. And as pooteen prepared to attack, Blinken made a speech in Berlin in which he recalled how Presidents John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan opposed Soviet power and declared that the United States would once again defend the guiding principles of peace and security".
At the same time, the Secretary of State took an active part in forming a coalition of about 50 countries that agreed to help the Ukrainians with weapons or impose economic sanctions against the russian Federation.
The NYT indicates that during the course of the war in 2022, Blinken himself was not so much a peacemaker as a "military strategist", but often opposed sending powerful American weapons to Ukraine.
"And at the end of 2022, when Milley suggested that the Ukrainian side take advantage of the victories on the battlefield and begin peace negotiations, Blinken insisted that the struggle should continue," the newspaper writes.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/us/politics/antony-blinken-gaza-israel-ukraine.html
Before that, on January 14, The American Conservative magazine reported that the US had prevented talks to end the Ukrainian conflict in 2022 in Istanbul and stopped them to continue the fighting.
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I have had to walk a lot for the last two days. The authorities, who never use public transport, decided that it should be stopped during an air raid. And while empty buses stand near the stops, people also stand near them in crowds. Considering that the metro also stops going to the other side of the Dnipro, this makes it impossible for most people to get to work or home. They are forced to wait or walk. Naturally, taxis are becoming as accessible as a private flight to the moon. Yesterday, when I was walking along the road, some guy stopped and gave me a ride in his car. Today, I walked several kilometers when the bus stopped halfway along the road. I don’t want to check how realistic this is in the rain or frost. It’s even worse for people with physical problems, with children or the elderly. The authorities are very far from the people...
US President Donald Trump has threatened russia that if an agreement is not reached soon to end the war in Ukraine, he will impose high taxes, duties and sanctions on everything russia sells. The American leader made this post on his social network Truth Social.
Trump began his post by stating that he "does not want to harm russia", loves the russian people and has always had good relations with dictator vladimir pooteen. The US President stated about "mystifications" by the radical left regarding russia and spread the propaganda cliché that it was russia that allegedly helped the US win World War II, losing 60 million people.
"Considering all this, I am going to do russia, whose economy is collapsing, and president pooteen a very big FAVOR. Make a deal now and STOP this senseless war! EVERYTHING WILL ONLY GET WORSE," the US President wrote. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113872782548137314
Yesterday talking to reporters in the White House, he said of russian president vladimir pooteen: “He should make a deal. I think he’s destroying russia by not making a deal.” “He can’t be thrilled,” Trump said of pooteen. “He’s not doing so well. I mean, he’s grinding it out… it’s not making him look very good… I think he would be well off to end that war.”
Trump said he would meet with pooteen, and the details were being arranged. “Could be very soon,” he said. “The war Ukraine and russia should have never started,” he added. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/21/europe/analysis-trump-putin-ukraine-intl-latam/index.html
Of course, some analogies with Israel come to mind, but overall it looks like Trump wants to show that he was the one who won by putting pressure on russia. Just like pooteen, having killed hundreds of thousands of russians and undermined the russian economy, he will be able to declare victory by showing the captured territories and the fact that now the whole world reckons with him again. Of course, all his losses in people and in the economy are compensated by the captured population and resources in Ukraine. Ukraine will be offered to be glad that it has remained to exist at all.
On the other hand, Trump has taken this to a personal level and perhaps hopes that he will be able to achieve peace in Ukraine as quickly as in Israel. This gives reason to believe that he will do everything possible and as quickly as possible, since his pride is at stake. Anyway, President Donald Trump has already missed his deadline for ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
We will also soon learn about the final price for Ukraine. It will also be extremely interesting to watch Zelensky's fate. Perhaps this will serve as a small consolation to all who suffered from his activities.
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Every week there are reports that Ukrainian drones have attacked another military plant in russia. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/droni-atakuvali-vojenni-objekti-v-kazani-kerivnik-tspd.html
However, even if they are not attacked, the russians are apparently no longer capable of making new strategic aviation aircraft, therefore uses old parts from Soviet times. In 2022-2023, russia was able to build only three new Tu-160 bombers, using old parts. By February 2022, one old Tu-160 remained at the Kazan Aircraft Plant, which was also modernized. russia plans to put all four Tu-160Ms into service by 2025, although it had planned for 2023. One of the reasons for the delay is problems with the engines and onboard radio-electronic equipment. The situation with the modernization of Tu-22M3 bombers is even more complicated. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/countries/vinishchuvachi-tu-160-zmi-diznalis-skilki-litakiv-pobuduvala-rosiya-novini-rosiji-50483121.html
Meanwhile, the State Registers of the Ministry of Justice in Ukraine have resumed their work. Their functioning, disrupted after the russian cyberattack, has now been fully restored. https://news.novyny.live/miniust-vidnoviv-robotu-derzhreiestriv-pislia-kiberataki-227823.html
New details emerge in the scandal with the 155th brigade: mobilized soldiers who were previously caught at the border for attempting to escape from Ukraine were sent to France. 56 servicemen of the brigade voluntarily left training grounds in France. Now the former brigade commander is being blamed for everything, who enrolled recruits caught in Ukraine, and then failed to report their escape in time. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/skandal-z-155-brigadoyu-do-franciyi-vidpravili-mobilizovanih-yakih-pered-cim-zlovili-na-kordoni-za-sprobu-vtechi-2748345.html
Although it seems to me that he is simply being made a scapegoat, because he probably could not influence who exactly would be sent to his brigade from among the forcibly mobilized.
Ukraine has detained its army's chief psychiatrist for alleged "illegal enrichment" charges related to earnings of more than $1m (£813,000) accrued since the start of russia's invasion in February 2022. In a statement, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said the man sat on a commission deciding whether individuals were fit for military service. The SBU said he owned three apartments in or near Kyiv, one in Odesa, two plots of land and several BMW luxury cars, and investigators searching his home also found $152,000 (£124,000) and €34,000 in cash. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd7dvl0gn1lo
The most remarkable thing about this story is that nothing is heard about who appointed him to this position, although this person had previously been involved in corruption...
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US has always been allowed to increase their military presence in Greenland. This is secured by an agreement from 1951. So Trumph's argument that US needs ownership of Greenland for security reasons is completely baseless. They can station as much military in Greenland and sorrounding waters as they like.
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Wlad I agree with your assessment that Ukraine will win the consolation prize in negotiations of continuing to exist at all.
Its easy to see that Trump has already decided who will win and who will lose in any negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine.
His comments are effusive about Russia, how he loves the Russian people, has always had a great relationship with Putin, and how Russia helped the US win WW2 citing greatly exaggerated losses. And he is clearly eager to once again claim that Russian activities to interfere in the 2016 election and help him win were a “HOAX”, thus to show 1) That he won without Russian assistance, and 2) That Russia isn’t really a bad actor.
Furthermore, his musings that because of the war, that Putin must not be happy, and now has a bad economy, and so on - as if Putin were merely a corporate executive heading troubled company because of a poor decision (the invasion of Ukraine, which Trump initially said was “smart”) and ought to be looking to improve the situation, rather than a ruthless dictator bent on re-establishing the Russian/Soviet empire by force.
He never, that I saw, said anything about the illegal invasion of Ukraine, nor anything substantive about what Ukraine has lost in soldiers, civilians, destruction of cities, and captured territory. Nor anything about Ukraine’s right to sovereignty in the first place.
Nor was there any mention of NATO and American support for Ukraine, and resolve to continue it as required, nor about NATO defense in general, in the event that Putin continues to prosecute the war. Taken with his other rash statements about NATO over the years it’s hard to believe that he has any backbone for standing up to Putin.
Trump has given Putin many signals that he can make peace without losing anything on his end, including no NATO membership on the horizon for Ukraine. In addition Trump has made it clear that he is very eager to make the “deal” as quickly as possible to satisfy his campaign promise, thus giving Putin a major negotiating advantage. It would not even surprise me if Putin has the audacity to demand a rollback of NATO boundaries to pre war lines.
Of course, there will be plenty of fault to go around, Biden’s timid and generally late supplies of weapons, plus a six month delay from the right wing extremists in Congress, abysmal leadership and policies in Ukraine, and the typical vacillating of Germany and some other NATO members.
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Hi Bob!
On the one hand, Trump is destabilizing everything, but in the case of Ukraine, this will force Europe to be more active. I believe that Ukraine's accession to NATO is an unrealistic scenario in the near future, but Europe's support will grow and this is more important.
russia says it remains "ready for an equal dialogue, a mutually respectful dialogue", reacting to US President Donald Trump's threat to impose sanctions against Moscow if it did not "stop this ridiculous war" in Ukraine.
"We're waiting for signals that are yet to arrive," says President Vladimir pooteen's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.
He adds that russia sees nothing new in Donald Trump's threats to impose sanctions.
"He likes these methods, at least he liked them during his first presidency." https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn0y51z7wedt
As a lawyer, I certainly couldn't help but notice that legal experts are blaming Donald Trump’s suspected use of artificial intelligence for the often “slipshod” language of his multitude of executive orders. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-garbled-executive-orders-ai-b2684658.html
My own experience has shown the extreme primitiveness of AI and its inability to create a quality document. However, it is one thing to process information according to a template, and another thing to understand and analyze it. But it seems to me that when AI gains consciousness, it will be difficult for a human to convince AI to do what it is ordered to do.
In Ukraine itself, there is also an invisible struggle for power. At least the recent detention of several generals who are accused of allegedly failing to defend Kharkiv in 2022, I see as part of the fight against the opposition. It is no secret that former Ukrainian President Poroshenko maintains good relations with the old generals who stopped the russians in 2014, and provides great assistance to some military units. These generals are fighting and became famous back then. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1ez6j48vepo
It is also very indicative how politicians abroad treat Poroshenko. For example, at another big meeting in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stood up, walked around the large table to greet and hug Poroshenko. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRjbit35sUs
Fogs and rains make me weak and sleepy. However, my younger colleagues also feel unwell, so I just try to rest more. By the end of the week I am exhausted and feel tired already on Thursday. I measure and record my blood pressure and pulse again to send them to the doctor at the end of the month. In general, I have been feeling the same for several months now, which I consider a good result.
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I agree NATO membership soon won’t happen, I should have been more clear and say the long term. Putin will likely insist on no NATO membership ever, probably also no EU membership.
You’re probably correct about Europe stepping up support for Ukraine as US support dwindles, but I wonder how effective that would be, since much of their weaponry is from the US.
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https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-blames-putin-for-ongoing-ukraine-war/
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Poroshenko might be a very good choice based on past performance, though clearly imperfect. Based on my limited understanding, of course.
I’m glad that your health has been at least stable, Wlad, and that you find it a good outcome.
As for being very tired by Thursday, it sounds like that reflects your professional work efforts more than anything else!
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https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-blames-putin-for-ongoing-ukraine-war/
Trump says a lot of things. Given his narcissism and amoral character, acting without regard to or in spite of his personal feelings is unlikely, IMO. He just had General Mark Milley’s photo removed from a display of past and present Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff because of his feelings against Milley. That’s an astoundingly petty and spiteful but inconsequential action, so I expect nothing better when the stakes for Trump are far more important.
Ultimately, time will tell which of his relevant statements were indicative when the peace agreement, if any, is finalized.
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You’re probably correct about Europe stepping up support for Ukraine as US support dwindles, but I wonder how effective that would be, since much of their weaponry is from the US.
Trump's talk about NATO reminds me of a magician's tricks, who distracts attention with bright details. It is worth remembering that the main plans and agreements usually remain unknown to the public. It is also worth remembering what military resources the US has in Poland, which can make the final move and put an end to the war with an exhausted russia. Then Poland and the US could emerge victorious, despite all the help provided by the entire European Union. And for Ukraine, a full-fledged military and economic union with the USA, UK and Poland may be more beneficial than with the EU and NATO.
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https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-blames-putin-for-ongoing-ukraine-war/
Trump opposes force to force, but he has much more resources.
russian President Vladimir pooteen said he was ready for negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1lvjzrll1eo
I think the agreements between the US and russia are already in the final stage. There are rumors that in Ukraine they are already buying sites for political advertising for the spring, which may indicate that elections are coming soon.
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Poroshenko might be a very good choice based on past performance, though clearly imperfect. Based on my limited understanding, of course.
I’m glad that your health has been at least stable, Wlad, and that you find it a good outcome.
As for being very tired by Thursday, it sounds like that reflects your professional work efforts more than anything else!
I don't think Poroshenko is a good choice. It's like marrying your first wife after being married to another and getting divorced again. In any case, it's a throwback, and Ukraine can't afford that, considering how much everything has changed.
Perhaps I am well influenced by the young team that charges me with energy and positivity)
It was quiet during the day today, but at night Ukraine and russia exchanged drone attacks again.
Ukraine reportedly hit a russian oil refinery and targeted Moscow during an attack involving a wave of at least 121 drones, one of the largest single operations of its kind during the war.
Elsewhere, Ukrainian authorities said three people were killed and one was injured when a russian drone hit a residential building in the Kyiv region.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg84r5g8d0o
The air in Davos is filled with the feeling of an approaching ceasefire. This is felt both among politicians and business leaders. The mood has definitely changed. This happened after the inauguration of President Trump. People expect that things will change and that this will have a concrete impact on the war in Ukraine. Andy Hunder, President at American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/andriyhunder_the-air-in-davos-is-filled-with-the-feeling-activity-7288632762469675010-aNmh?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
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I wonder why Trump, who is quite bellicose and dictatorial toward many other countries, is so complimentary of Russia and so intent on arranging a cease fire?
Could it be that his prime motivation is to save Russia from economic collapse and Putin from being deposed for the disastrous war he started? He has long wanted to build hotels and other businesses there.
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I wonder why Trump, who is quite bellicose and dictatorial toward many other countries, is so complimentary of Russia and so intent on arranging a cease fire?
Could it be that his prime motivation is to save Russia from economic collapse and Putin from being deposed for the disastrous war he started? He has long wanted to build hotels and other businesses there.
In chess, the white and black pieces are bitter enemies, but those who move the pieces are usually good friends...
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https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-blames-putin-for-ongoing-ukraine-war/
Trump opposes force to force, but he has much more resources.
russian President Vladimir pooteen said he was ready for negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1lvjzrll1eo
I think the agreements between the US and russia are already in the final stage. There are rumors that in Ukraine they are already buying sites for political advertising for the spring, which may indicate that elections are coming soon.
Those are some interesting speculations / rumors. I hope they are true. Free and fair elections need to be a condition of support from the US. Like everyone else, I don't know what Trump considers to be "must-haves" from the negotiations. I think Putin knows he is no longer up against a feeble-minded and overcautious US president, so he may be more flexible. The sticking point may be actual security guarantees for Ukraine, which Trump will insist on, but Putin will resist. At which point Trump will have to turn up the heat on Russia, something Biden would never have done.
I'm glad you're feeling better. Don't overwork yourself, even though that is a temptation for you, as a person with strong ethics.
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I try to rest as much as possible on weekends, although the weather is oppressive and even Sergiy UT3UFD complained of heart pain. Constant stress and physical inactivity will greatly worsen the health of many Ukrainians. Therefore, nothing but reading and radio. I try to replace the lack of walks with exercises. Perhaps we need to study the experience of prisoners who kept fit in prison. Comparing life now in Ukraine with the life of people in the Soviet Union, you find more and more in common. If you do not cooperate with the authorities and are not part of it, then you are doomed to be a marginal. However, it was a little easier for Soviet people because they never lived differently and for them it was the norm.
The US State Department has issued a halt to nearly all existing foreign assistance and paused new aid, according to an internal memo sent to officials and US embassies abroad. The United States is the world's biggest international aid donor spending $68bn in 2023 according to government figures. The State Department notice appears to affect everything from development assistance to military aid.
It makes exceptions only for emergency food aid and for military funding for Israel and Egypt. It also orders a wide scale review of all foreign assistance to be completed within 85 days to ensure the aid adheres to President Trump's foreign policy goals.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce9nx5k7lv0o
On January 25, the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation in Ukraine, Andriy Kovalenko, stated that military aid from the United States would continue. In particular, this concerns aid packages that were approved earlier, Kovalenko said.
Ostap Yarysh, a Voice of America correspondent in the Pentagon, citing sources, also reported that the two main programs under which weapons are manufactured and supplied to Ukraine remain unchanged for the time being.
"The Pentagon has confirmed to me once again that no new instructions have been received to terminate these programs. This means that contracts for the manufacture of weapons under the USAI program, issued by the Biden administration, remain in force," Ostap Yarysh noted. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cp82zxrjm8ko
The US Department of Homeland Security has suspended programs that allowed immigrants to temporarily settle in the US, including a key initiative that allows entry for Ukrainians, The New York Times reported. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/us/politics/trump-immigration-pause.html
The Anti-Corruption Center submitted a statement to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine about the abuse of official position by the Minister of Defense Rustem Umyerov. The conflict arose regarding the State Enterprise "Defense Procurement Agency" of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine - a national agency that carries out centralized procurement of weapons and military equipment for the needs of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. The Ministry of Defense dismissed members of the Agency's Supervisory Board and the minister was accused of personal interest.
According to Minister Umerov, over the past six months, instead of providing the army with ammunition, the Ministry of Defense has received "political games, a flood of contracts, a flood of information, PR for inaction and failure to fulfill the KPI by a subordinate enterprise of the Ministry of Defense."
https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/cpk-podala-zayavu-do-nabu-pro-zlovzhivannya-rustemom-umyerovim-sluzhbovim-stanovishchem-50484580.html
The biggest money in Ukraine now revolves around the defense sector, so it is not surprising that there is a fierce struggle for control over it. Unfortunately, such a fight against corruption often leads to the fact that purchases are not made at all.
Meanwhile, the russians have developed and are actively using new cheap and effective Molniya (Lightning) attack drones – FPV aircraft capable of covering more than 30 km. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c17er5n2eg8o
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In addition to the weekly UK-Ukraine net on 28MHz, which was joined today by two new UK stations, I had QSO with Australia, Brazil and the USA.
I also continue to fill the gap in management knowledge, while having the opportunity and need to apply it in practice. One of my favorite and best ways to do this is to study other people's experience, especially if it is well presented in a book. One of them is - Only The Paranoid Survive. It was written by Andy Grove, ex CEO of INTEL. I was also interested in his personal story and I gave his example to the children as the success of one of the emigrants who was forced to leave his own country, but achieved success and made another country stronger.
Alexander Lukashenko is elected president of Belarus for the seventh time. Many people call these elections undemocratic, but unlike Ukraine, they are at least formally taking place. It is not surprising that one of the arguments for leaving everything as is, according to Belarusians themselves, is their unwillingness to have it like in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cwypew94rp4o
US President Donald Trump has said he wants Egypt and Jordan to take in Palestinians from Gaza. Trump said he had made the request to Jordan's King Abdullah and planned to ask Egypt's president on Sunday, too. Describing Gaza as a "demolition site", Trump said: "You're talking about probably a million and a half people, and we just clean out that whole thing". https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c07kpjyzgllo
This is how the fate of countries and peoples is decided. People are just trash that needs to be cleaned up.
President Donald Trump says he has directed his administation to impose a raft of tariffs and sanctions on Colombia after it turned away US military flights carrying deported migrants. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cjw461nelzdt
It's strange that he still hasn't thought of sending them to Ukraine. I think the migrants themselves would quickly leave the US if they started catching them like Ukrainians and sending them to the front.
In Transcarpathia in western Ukraine, a furniture manufacturing company plans to hire 160 workers from the People's Republic of Bangladesh due to a shortage of Ukrainian workers. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/3952787-na-zakarpatti-virobnik-mebliv-planue-zaluciti-160-pracivnikiv-iz-banglades.html
Probably because Bangladeshis are immune from mobilization and they will not be taken directly from the workshop.
No one will be surprised by stories of law enforcement officers helping businessmen to persecute competitors. But recently my colleagues told a story about how competitors hired mobilizers to take away their security in order to gain access to their assets.
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One of the things that many people outside the US don't understand, is that many American taxpayer/voters are tired of supplying everything for everyone, and then being resented for and blamed for every problem in the world, to some degree.
Hunger in Africa? America isn't supplying enough food/foreign aid.
Europe militarily exposed? America's not supplying enough troops and hardware to NATO, even if we are supplying more than Europe itself is.
No Palestinian state? America hasn't pressured Israel enough.
The list goes on and on.
I think it is wholly appropriate for a country that is $36 trillion in debt, and adding another trillion in debt every 100 days, to cease foreign aid (and many other expenditures) while it can be reviewed for whether the aid is fostering goodwill or bad will, benefit to America, or detriment. This should have been done on a regular basis, but I don't think it has been. The looming debt crisis is now forcing the issue to some degree, and this will only get worse in my opinion, as interest payments begin to dominate the US federal budget.
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Postscript: I think Trump is screwing up by wanting to keep tax rates from rising, as they are scheduled to do in 2026. A country as far in debt as we are has no business lowering taxes... in my opinion. Lowering taxes is only going to add to the rate of debt accumulation.
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Many Americans do not understand russia's motivation. Ukraine for them is a minimum program, a springboard for an attack on Europe. Europe is also an intermediate link. The maximum program and the cherished desire of every russian is to destroy the USA. And they will not need your money and houses - the barbarians are coming to destroy, rape and kill.
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I agree with your points, Brady.
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One of the things that many people outside the US don't understand, is that many American taxpayer/voters are tired of supplying everything for everyone, and then being resented for and blamed for every problem in the world, to some degree.
Hunger in Africa? America isn't supplying enough food/foreign aid.
Europe militarily exposed? America's not supplying enough troops and hardware to NATO, even if we are supplying more than Europe itself is.
No Palestinian state? America hasn't pressured Israel enough.
The list goes on and on.
I think it is wholly appropriate for a country that is $36 trillion in debt, and adding another trillion in debt every 100 days, to cease foreign aid (and many other expenditures) while it can be reviewed for whether the aid is fostering goodwill or bad will, benefit to America, or detriment. This should have been done on a regular basis, but I don't think it has been. The looming debt crisis is now forcing the issue to some degree, and this will only get worse in my opinion, as interest payments begin to dominate the US federal budget.
Since the time when I worked in banks I learned a lot of specific jokes, and one of them says that if you owe 100 dollars - it's your problem, if you owe 100 thousand dollars - it's your bank's problem.
In fact, everything has two sides. The US has paid and continues to pay a high price for dominance in the world, but if they stop doing this, China will immediately take their place, as it has already done in many places. Another thing is that it is not only the amount of money that the US spends that matters, but also how effectively. Naturally, each administration manages this differently, getting different results. In Ukraine, many of those who lost funding were immediately revealed. It turned out that in addition to purely humanitarian goals related to demining or supporting people who lost their homes, education, some media, law enforcement and other government agencies, as well as some dubious public organizations were also financed with American money. Apparently, this was one of the channels for financing the current government. In Ukrainian society, this caused an ambiguous reaction.
The White House Office of Management and Budget on Wednesday rescinded a memo that froze federal grants and loans and created widespread confusion this week. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/29/politics/white-house-rescind-federal-funding-freeze/index.html
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the world is ruled by madmen
Reminds me TV series, also parodied by Simpsons (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmOzvt2UFBk).
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Another week has flown by, and with it the first month of the new year. Every night, russian drones attack Ukraine and Kyiv, and air bombs attack cities near the front line. Civilians are dying, houses are being destroyed, and this has long become a familiar part of Ukrainian life.
https://glavred.net/ukraine/kiev-atakovali-drony-rf-oblomki-bpla-upali-vozle-metro-10634807.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c07km3xpdlmo
Every time we meet someone we know, we wonder if we did the right thing by staying in Ukraine. And even more surprising are those few who return and could not adapt to a new life abroad. Things look even worse for those in the army with no hope of leaving before the end of the war.
Zelensky said that currently there is no law in Ukraine to demobilize the military. In an interview with Italian journalist Cecilia Sali for the newspaper Il Foglio, he said that martial law involves the mobilization of people and all the country's resources. "We are defending ourselves today. If tomorrow, for example, half of the army simply goes home, then we should have surrendered on the first day. Because if tomorrow half of the people go home, Putin will kill us all," he added. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISB7siWg-PU
Unfortunately, neither he nor the parliament, in which the party he controls has a majority, are going to do anything to make the war a common cause, and not just a matter for a couple of million poor men who have become slaves. Why talk about there being no law, if he himself can submit such a law to the parliament?
Mobilization is used not only to persecute ordinary people or lawyers who defend them too effectively, but also for political persecution and pressure on opponents.
The Kyiv territorial center of recruitment and social support fined Oleksiy Poroshenko, the 39-year-old son of the former president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, for failure to appear on a summons, which gave the opportunity to put under arrest all his property. His lawyers say it is illegal and part of an "information attack" on the ex-head of state's family. Oleksiy has been permanently residing in the UK since 2019 and was removed from military registration in Ukraine. But after another change in the law, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian men abroad have become violators. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cg5y151vdr9o
The heads of several settlements in the Lviv region have received fines from the territorial recruitment and social protection centers for allegedly failing to fulfill mobilization plans. The mayor of one city calls this "legal arbitrariness." The fact is that the heads of settlements do not have any law enforcement units to forcibly deliver citizens to mobilization centers. The only function available to them is to notify the population about mobilization measures. In addition, the mayor of Drohobych hinted that the mobilization plans imposed from above cannot be implemented, because there are not enough human resources. One of the mayors considers all this to be pressure on local government and "preparation for elections." These are just some of the cases in the first month of this year when, through artificial actions of state authorities, communities are deprived of leaders elected by residents. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cd9qk7gj7qjo
In Kyiv, a conflict has also erupted between the newly appointed head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, Timur Tkachenko, and Kyiv City Mayor Vitali Klitschko. Tkachenko accuses Klitschko of poorly performing his duties, while Klitschko accuses Tkachenko of encroaching on his power in the city. https://www.komersant.info/chy-znaydetsia-rishennia-shchodo-rukhu-transportu-pid-chas-tryvoh-ochilnyk-kmva-rizko-vidpoviv-klychku/
However, it was only a matter of time before the military tried to extend its power to the civilian part of life. Everyone wants to control property and money, using the opportunities they have.
Just don't forget that armies win battles, and economies win wars. And if russia is still fighting for its own money, then Ukraine exists solely thanks to foreign aid. According to the Ministry of Finance, in 2022-2024, Ukraine received more than $115 billion from international partners to the budget. The top three look like this: almost $45 billion came from the EU, $31 billion from the US, and $12.4 billion from the IMF.
Although the government has agreements on Western aid, which should last for the entire year 2025, everyone understands the risks that everything could change, and if the war ends, aid could be significantly reduced. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cj48y778z4wo
Far-right pro-russian Romanian politician Calin Gheorghescu, who is the most popular potential presidential candidate according to polls, said that Ukraine is a "fictional state" that will "inevitably" be divided among its neighbors. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/clyz02j9qp7o
About 90 Patriot missiles from Israel are being sent to Ukraine in a transfer facilitated by the United States, according to a US defense official. The missiles had been in storage in Israel, which operated Patriot air defense systems for more than 30 years before retiring them in April. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/28/politics/patriot-missiles-ukraine-israel-us/index.html
The US Citizenship and Immigration Services announced the suspension of the United for Ukraine program for Ukrainians fleeing war to the US. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1043798.html
Satellite images of the port of Tartus in Syria showed that from January 18 to 27, the russians began to take out military equipment collected at the port on ships of the Ministry of Defense of the russian federation. They say that russia could not come to an agreement with the new government in Syria because of their demand to hand over Assad. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/01/27/7495541/
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It was noisy again at night - air defense shot down drones. In Kyiv, apparently, there was no destruction, but in Poltava, a residential building was destroyed and people died https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cly4z3nxqyxo
Someone is surprised why this does not cause a surge of people willing to go to war. Apparently, this is also because no one knows the answer to how busification (by the way, this new word even appeared in the English-language Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_conscription_crisis ) can stop russian missiles and drones. Also, sending old, sick and untrained soldiers to the front in conditions of a shortage of weapons does not replace retaliatory missile strikes on russia, and rare attacks on military facilities and factories do not cause significant harm and do not attract much attention in russia itself.
Today, two high-profile incidents related to mobilization occurred at once.
Today in the city of Pyriatyn, Poltava region, an unknown assailant attacked a serviceman of the mobilization center who was escorting newly mobilized soldiers. He shot him and fled with one of the mobilized soldiers. According to one version, the mobilized soldier's friend decided to free him in this way. But the fact that they took the soldier's weapon with them may indicate other reasons for what happened. https://rubryka.com/2025/02/01/ubyvstvo-vijskovosluzhbovtsya-ttsk-u-pyryatyni-pravoohorontsi-zatrymaly-pidozryuvanogo/
Also today, an explosion occurred in the Rivne mobilization center, as a result of which the building was damaged, one person died and six were injured. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/u-rivnenskomu-tck-prolunav-vibuh-ye-postrazhdali-zmi-50486466.html
Some consider this a natural and expected result of how the government mobilizes and treats people.
If you look at the situation more broadly, you can ask yourself the question: if Western support means that russia should not only not lose, but also receive serious damage, and attacks on sensitive targets in russia are apparently directly prohibited even by the long-range weapons that Ukraine has, then what is the point of such a war?
Also, while soldiers are dying, some of their commanders are profiting from them. For example, in the 110th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, facts of multi-million extortions from soldiers were revealed. https://enovosty.com/uk/news-ukr/news_society-ukr/full/u-110-j-brigadi-zsu-vikrito-fakti-bagatomiljonnix-poboriv-iz-soldativ
So it is not surprising that many Ukrainians choose to leave this country instead of defending it. In 2024, 500,000 people left Ukraine. This year, an outflow of another 200,000 people is expected. https://enovosty.com/uk/news-ukr/news_society-ukr/full/na-nizkomu-starti-skilki-ukrainciv-planuyut-zalishiti-ukrainu-u-2025-roci
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Yesterday at work I had several meetings with bosses and came back late. If someone thinks that being a middle manager is easy, they are mistaken. Although being a boss is even harder. If you are an ordinary employee, you have almost nothing to lose and you will easily find the same job if the company will have problems. But if you are a business owner and lose it, then creating a new one will be difficult. The stress level is always much higher. The owner cannot close the office door at 6 or 7 pm and go have a beer with friends, putting work out of his mind until the next morning.
Then there were drones at night and I woke up early without rest. It is not surprising that I feel bad and tired. But the best way to recover is to get distracted. Today I had interesting QSO with Didier F4HRM and Randy N1SP, who I met at the CW Academy last year. Finally I met him on the air! Also traditional QSO with Colin G3ZAF and then a long conversation on Zoom. Then coffee with Sergiy UT3UFD finally restored my mood.
Probably everyone who does not earn money from the war wants it to end as soon as possible. And this is the main topic of conversation now and we can only watch those who actually make decisions.
US President Donald Trump said his administration has already had "very serious" discussions with russia about the war in Ukraine, and that he and russian president vladimir pooteen could soon take "significant" steps to end the conflict. https://www.dw.com/uk/tramp-idut-duze-serjozni-diskusii-z-rf-sodo-vijni-v-ukraini/a-71479819?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
Ending the war in Ukraine is in the interests of the entire world, including the United States, Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg said on Fox News. He also said he expects to make progress in the near term. Kellogg said he expects to make progress on Ukraine in the next 100 days. https://www.foxnews.com/video/6368078173112
With President Trump back in office, vladimir pooteen sees an opportunity to break his international isolation and rehabilitate his image as a statesman. What pooteen desires most is for Trump to help him reassert his stature on the global stage. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5118007-what-putin-wants-from-trump/
The United States wants Ukraine to hold elections, potentially by the end of the year, especially if Kyiv can agree a truce with russia in the coming months, President Donald Trump's top Ukraine official told Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-wants-ukraine-hold-elections-following-ceasefire-says-trump-envoy-2025-02-01/
Trump officials are also debating whether to push for an initial ceasefire before trying to broker a more permanent deal, the two people familiar with the Trump administration discussions said. If presidential elections were to take place in Ukraine, the winner could be responsible for negotiating a longer-term pact with Moscow, the people said.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-wants-ukraine-hold-elections-following-ceasefire-says-trump-envoy-2025-02-01/
Trump may be pursuing two goals. On the one hand, he is really speeding up the process of concluding a real deal with the authorized parties, although pooteen's legitimacy is also questionable. On the other hand, it is obvious that the new government, which Trump should undoubtedly support, must guarantee him an investigation into Zelensky's activities, which will also give him the opportunity to persecute Biden. I would like to know which of the Ukrainians is already negotiating with Trump about future support in the elections.
It is said that Korean soldiers were withdrawn from the front line due to high casualties. They showed low efficiency due to poor coordination due to lack of knowledge of russian. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/30/world/europe/north-korea-troops-ukraine-russia.html
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It got colder again to +2C and there was even a little snow. I still feel tired and sleepy. However, I almost managed to recover on Sunday.
The death toll among civilians following the airstrike in Poltava has reached 14.
But russia is also bombing its own citizens. Nearly a hundred people, many of them elderly and disabled, were trapped under rubble after a russian air bomb hit a boarding school in the town of Sudzha in russia's Kursk region. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1ezvjvgyg3o
The Prosecutor General's Office reports that two residents of the Poltava region have been reported as suspects in the murder of a soldier at a gas station in Pyriatyn. According to the investigation, on January 31 of this year, a resident of Poltava, together with other mobilized soldiers, accompanied by soldiers of the Poltava mobilization center, was going to a military unit for training. Intending to evade military service, he called an acquaintance from Lubny several times and reported the bus route. When the bus stopped at a gas station in Pyryatyn, a resident of Lubny shot one of the escorts with a rifle he had brought with him, causing the soldier a gunshot wound incompatible with life. Later, he took possession of the victim's machine gun and fled the scene with an accomplice. The soldier's machine gun was found in a forest plantation, where the suspects had abandoned it. https://t.me/pgo_gov_ua/28626
Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Major General Mykhailo Drapaty, condemned the murders and attacks on mobilization center servicemen and called on citizens not to tolerate such crimes. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1045022.html
This murder has caused a lively discussion in society and the worst thing about it is that of course no one approves of murder as such, but many people are understanding towards those who avoid military service. I am surprised that the authorities did not use this as a reason to blame everything on russian agents, but I do not exclude that the consequence will be even more cruel treatment of mobilized people. On the other hand, the chances of survival in prison for attackers are much higher than at the front, and the conditions may even be better.
Also, this situation leads to a opposition between the army and the people, the victims of which will primarily be soldiers who are now at the front, and who will then be unreasonably associated with those who are now mobilizing people in the rear. However, this situation can be viewed as another demonstration of the principle of "divide and rule."
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I have been away from this forum for quite a few days and finally returned to read. All that is going on in regard to Ukraine makes my head hurt. I wonder if this is a result of the situation's seeming impossibility, or just a sign that I am old (65)?
I'm glad I don't have to make any of the decisions related to any of this stuff. The entire thing is a conundrum, a Gordian Knot. or whatever adjective you prefer... oy vey!
I appreciate what you all have had to say in response to what I wrote.
The sacrifices on the part of Ukrainian soldiers and families has been far too great, to let Putin get away with a peace deal that is unenforceable or too sweet.
God bless you all!
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I have been away from this forum for quite a few days and finally returned to read. All that is going on in regard to Ukraine makes my head hurt. I wonder if this is a result of the situation's seeming impossibility, or just a sign that I am old (65)?
I'm glad I don't have to make any of the decisions related to any of this stuff. The entire thing is a conundrum, a Gordian Knot. or whatever adjective you prefer... oy vey!
I appreciate what you all have had to say in response to what I wrote.
The sacrifices on the part of Ukrainian soldiers and families has been far too great, to let Putin get away with a peace deal that is unenforceable or too sweet.
God bless you all!
As always, I am glad to see you! Time flies by very quickly. But there is a good thing about it - time heals everything. I hope your wife has already recovered and you are doing well!
I took another blood pressure and pulse measurement and my doctor was pleased with the results. My condition remains stable, although heavy loads and weather changes have a bad effect on me. Maybe work has a good effect on me, leaving no time for thoughts about the bad. Slowly but surely, I am developing my direction and feel confident in our large company. My son is graduating from university this year and chose the topic of his diploma to be the restoration of Ukraine after the war. I would like to do this together with him, using the resources of my company.
Trump says US could 'take over' Gaza and rebuild it. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2pwjgp59do This means that all Palestinians must leave Gaza and most likely will not be able to return there. This is even worse than what the russians did in the occupied territories of Ukraine. There they allowed those who did not resist them to stay.
The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine received the first French Mirage 2000 and F-16 fighters from the Netherlands. https://unn.ua/news/ukraina-otrymala-pershi-vynyshchuvachi-mirage-2000-ta-f-16-minoborony
Washington has halted the supply of weapons and military equipment to Kyiv, but last week it was resumed. The supplies are believed to have been authorized by Joe Biden. Due to the delay, they will continue for several more months. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-arms-shipments-kyiv-briefly-paused-before-resuming-over-weekend-sources-say-2025-02-03/
President Donald Trump says he wants to negotiate an agreement with Ukraine in which Kyiv guarantees supplies of rare earth metals, key elements used in electronics, in exchange for aid. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had floated such an idea last October as part of his “victory plan” for ending the war with Russia. “We’re telling Ukraine they have very valuable rare earths,” Trump said on Monday. “We’re looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they’re going to secure what we’re giving them with their rare earths and other things.” Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, said Ukraine was willing, adding that he wants “equalisation” from Ukraine for Washington’s “close to $300bn” in support. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/04/ukraine-war-briefing-trump-demands-rare-earths-from-kyiv-in-exchange-for-aid
US allies expect President Donald Trump’s administration to present a long-awaited plan to end russia’s war on Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference in Germany next week, according to people familiar with the matter. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-05/us-set-to-present-trump-s-plan-for-peace-in-ukraine-next-week?srnd=homepage-europe
On Monday, February 3, US President Donald Trump signed an official order appointing retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg as special representative for Ukraine and russia. He also said that the US has "made significant progress in relations between russia and Ukraine." https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2025/02/3/7204100/
Last weekend, a serious accident occurred at one of the energy facilities in Ukraine, which was caused by russia. Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko reported that as a result, significant generating capacity was lost, and the restoration process is currently underway. He also noted that possible power outages in Ukraine due to frost are not related to weather conditions, but only to russian attacks. So far, the temperature in Kyiv is near zero Celsius and the electricity has not been turned off. https://www.stolica.news/rf-seryozno-poshkodyla-odyn-z-ob-rsquo-iektiv-heneratsii-halushchenko.html
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Wlad, thank you, friend. It's wonderful to hear that you're doing well or at least, stable.
My wife has come a long way but still has some paralysis in her left foot. She is undergoing tests to determine whether she will need another back surgery (lumbar vertebrae fusion) or knee surgery, or both, to correct the paralysis.
On the rare earth minerals issue, with Trump what he says he wants is almost never what he actually wants. (Those who have read the famous Karrass negotiation books will understand). I have heard some suggest that by making Ukraine our supplier of rare earth's instead of China, he is creating a strategic interest that can be used as a justification for defending Ukraine. Is this speculation true? Your guess is as good as mine! 73!
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Last night during the traditional online meeting with English radio amateurs an air attack began and it was quite loud. In Kyiv the drones were shot down, but the emergency power outages in four regions speak for themselves.
Apparently, there is still a shortage of air defense, but there is an even greater shortage of infantry, which in reality runs out much faster than the official losses, which, according to the president, barely exceed 40 thousand people...
Although he may not really know what is happening in his own country. Polish President Andrzej Duda claims that his Ukrainian colleague Volodymyr Zelensky even learned about the events of the Volyn tragedy in 1943 only when he became president. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/zelenskiy-diznavsya-pro-volinsku-tragediyu-tilki-koli-stav-prezidentom-duda-2761200.html
And this looks very weak at a time when Poland is biased towards the events in Volyn in 1943 and its right-wing politicians, to which Duda belongs, are constantly speculating on this issue. Well, unlike Zelensky, I heard about these events from my grandfather, who miraculously did not become one of the victims.
Polish President Andrzej Duda also believes that when the fighting stops, crime will spill over the border from Ukraine into Poland, also affecting Western Europe and the United States. He compared the situation to russia in the early 1990s, when banditry and gun violence increased among veterans of the decade-long Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.
"Imagine a situation where thousands of people return home from the front. Those people who are fighting with russia, many of them will have mental problems," he said.
The Polish president stressed that many of the soldiers will suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder and return to "their villages, their cities, where they will see destroyed houses, destroyed factories, destroyed factories, without jobs and without prospects." He said this in an interview with the Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/6d3b06f8-f5d4-4870-9b33-43bf4a651849
On the one hand, he can be accused of demonizing Ukrainians, but on the other hand, I had a negative experience of communicating with people who returned from the front as different people. They probably remained the same, only lost some control over themselves, or what makes people civilized remained at the front. Some really have mental problems. It is probably true that after the survivors return, Ukraine will become a little more dangerous.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army is critically short of men, especially infantry. On January 11, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky issued a decree transferring about 50,000 servicemen of all branches and types of troops to the Ground Forces. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/sirskiy-perevodit-50-tisyach-viyskovosluzhbovtsiv-z-riznikh-rodiv-viysk-u-pikhotu-up
On February 1, an explosion occurred in the Rivne mobilization center building, killing one person and injuring six others. https://sud.ua/uk/news/photo/322175-v-rezultate-vzryva-v-rovenskom-ttsk-pogib-odin-chelovek-i-esche-shest-postradali-pervye-podrobnosti-foto
On February 2, an explosion occurred near the mobilization center building in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. One person was injured as a result of the incident. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/322242-u-pavlogradi-stavsya-vibukh-bilya-ttsk-ye-postrazhdaliy
On February 5, an explosion occurred in the building of a mobilization center in Kamianets-Podilsky, killing one man and injuring four people. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/322464-v-kamentse-podolskom-progremel-vzryv-v-ttsk-predvaritelno-est-pogibshiy
After a series of attacks on servicemen at mobilization centers and explosions in their buildings in Ukraine, a decision has been made to tighten security measures. The number of video surveillance facilities is being increased and security at the premises is being strengthened. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/322562-v-ukraine-usilivayut-mery-bezopasnosti-v-ttsk-posle-serii-napadeniy-i-vzryvov
Strengthening security measures (however, when did they really prevent attacks?) was expected, but the question remains open: who did it? It is clear that these were organized actions, which for obvious reasons are beneficial to russia and could have been organized by their special services. But they could also have been opponents of the current government with the aim of weakening and discrediting it. Also, history knows many cases when the government itself organized terrorist attacks in order to distract people's attention and get grounds to tighten restrictions and persecute their enemies, the opposition.
Some people noticed that during the attack on the soldier-escort in Piryatin, there were three soldiers and two policemen who apparently just stood and watched as someone attacked one of them, freed the mobilized man, and then they quietly disappeared. https://tsn.ua/exclusive/vbiv-tckivcya-pered-svoyim-yuvileyem-novi-podrobici-zhorstkogo-rozstrilu-u-piryatini-2758500.html Many rumors and hypotheses arise where there are too many questions and too few answers.
It is obvious that Ukraine suffers from this the most, the number of enemies inside of which is apparently no less than outside.
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I hope that the Polish president do not forget that Russia murdered and massacred 4,443 Polish officers in the Kathyn Forest during WW2
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Wlad, thank you, friend. It's wonderful to hear that you're doing well or at least, stable.
My wife has come a long way but still has some paralysis in her left foot. She is undergoing tests to determine whether she will need another back surgery (lumbar vertebrae fusion) or knee surgery, or both, to correct the paralysis.
On the rare earth minerals issue, with Trump what he says he wants is almost never what he actually wants. (Those who have read the famous Karrass negotiation books will understand). I have heard some suggest that by making Ukraine our supplier of rare earth's instead of China, he is creating a strategic interest that can be used as a justification for defending Ukraine. Is this speculation true? Your guess is as good as mine! 73!
I hope everything will be fine and your wife will get better!
As for Trump and his hectic activities, instead of Greenland, it would be better if he offered Ukraine to join the USA. I would definitely vote for the referendum, but I don't have the right even to vote.
Another man died during mobilization, or rather, during the medical examination to determine his fitness for military service.
During the autopsy, experts determined that the man had ischemic heart disease and acute heart failure. "Death occurred as a result of acute cardiac dynamics," the head of the forensic examination bureau reported.
sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/322751-stala-izvestna-prichina-smerti-muzhchiny-vo-vremya-prokhozhdeniya-vlk-na-bukovine
Despite the fact that such cases are isolated, each of them immediately hits the top news. And I ask the question again, is it really impossible to invite NATO doctors and determine the fitness for service of those who are subject to mobilization according to NATO standards so that no one has doubts about their objectivity? Of course, this will never happen, as well as the cessation of selective exemption from mobilization of those close to power.
Ukrainian Ambassador to the US Markarova stated that currently the issue of the need to hold elections in Ukraine by the end of 2025 has not been discussed with the US, but if the Donald Trump administration raises this topic, Kyiv is ready for dialogue. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/322399-ukraina-gotova-k-dialogu-o-provedenii-vyborov-do-kontsa-2025-goda-oksana-markarova
This is also a subject of discussion in society, but yesterday I found a leaflet in my mailbox with a "report on activities" of one of the local council deputies, a member of one of the largest Ukrainian parties, which indicates that preparations for the elections have already actually begun.
The European Commission has announced the allocation of almost three million euros to support russian and Belarusian independent media outlets working in exile in the European Union. The European Commission noted that in 2024 alone, approximately 1,500 journalists from russia and Belarus fled or moved to the EU. https://sud.ua/uk/news/abroad/322398-evrokomissiya-vydelyaet-3-mln-evro-na-podderzhku-rossiyskikh-i-belorusskikh-zhurnalistov-v-es
I have serious doubts about the independence of all these journalists and I wouldn't be surprised if most of them turn out to be spies. The russians have always paid great attention to propaganda and spreading their influence abroad, which results in Europe funding their people now.
Ukraine, having huge debts and begging for money for the army and people who suffered from the war, at the same time sponsors completely wild things. For example, an extensive penguin observation program in Antarctica. Ukrainian polar explorers from the Akademik Vernadsky station even read them poems. https://socportal.info/ua/news/pingvini-slukhali-stusa-yak-ukrainski-polyarniki-prosuvaiut-kulturu-v-antarktidi/
Of course, I understand that this is done by different people, but it does not fit into my only head. Perhaps some people really do need to die at the front so that others can read poetry to the penguins. For some people, this probably sounds very lofty, but I think it's dog shit.
The National Bank is again worsening economic activity indicators. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/schomisyachni-opituvannya-pidpriyemstv-ukrayini-sichen-2025-roku
Enterprises in all sectors of the economy are set to reduce the volume of manufactured products/provided services, the volume of construction, new orders for products/services, including export orders, as well as the volume of trade turnover and the volume of purchases of goods for sale. An increase in prices and a further reduction in the number of employees are expected.
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February is an even more politically active month than January and everyone talks a lot. Zelensky gives one interview after another.
Kyiv cannot yet return all the territories occupied by russia, but it will never recognize them as russian, he said in an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan.
He considers himself a legitimate president because: "I was elected by 73% of my population. Our people of Ukraine. 73%."
In addition, according to Zelensky, there are many challenges in voting during the war - for the military, Ukrainians in the occupied territories and abroad.
"How can they (soldiers) vote in the trenches? How will all our people in the occupied territories vote? Millions of people. How will 8 million Ukrainians who are abroad today because of this war vote?" - President Zelensky listed the problems associated with holding elections during the war.
Elections, he said, should be announced and held after "the hot phase of the war ends and when martial law is lifted."
Answering the question of whether NATO membership would be a sufficient security guarantee for Ukraine, President Zelensky replied that this would not be enough and it would be necessary to maintain a large army.
"So then let's do it, give us back nuclear weapons, give us strong missile launchers, partners, help us finance a million-strong army and introduce your contingent into those parts of our state where we want maximum stability of the situation and for people to have peace," Volodymyr Zelensky believes.
He is also ready to meet and negotiate with russia. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c0lze6zyrw8o
But also Volodymyr Zelensky said that it is important for him to meet with Donald Trump before pooteen meets with him.
The Ukrainian president said this in an interview with Reuters on the evening of February 7. They may meet at the Munich Security Conference, which will be held on February 14-16.
Trump noted that he plans to talk with the Ukrainian president about rare earth metals in Ukraine in exchange for US support.
Zelensky also mentioned that Ukraine is ready to have contracts for the supply of liquefied natural gas - "we will be a hub for all of Europe."
The Ukrainian president also said that a version of the contract for voluntary service of young people aged 18 to 24 is being developed.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/quotes-president-volodymyr-zelenskiys-interview-with-reuters-2025-02-07/
Well, the arguments about the impossibility of holding elections sound convincing until you start thinking about how realistic it is to hold them. Ukrainians abroad can vote in embassies, and soldiers can be given 3 days off to go vote in a safer place. Even if the whole process takes 2-3 months, it is quite realistic to do. Also, no one could answer the question of how the russians will influence the elections if they are held now, and not after the end of the war? What will fundamentally change, given that there is no longer talk of russia's defeat?
In 2014, the occupation of two regions in the east and Crimea with a total population of more than six million people out of 40 million in all of Ukraine did not allow them to participate in the elections, which did not prevent them from being held. And no one spoke about the rights of these people and the impossibility of holding elections.
As for everything else, his opinion means little.
The Kremlin has little incentive to end its war in Ukraine, and russian dictator Vladimir pooteen may feel close to a military victory, the Associated Press (AP) reported, citing experts it interviewed.
The publication notes that russian troops are "steadily advancing" on the front, the russian economy has not yet collapsed, and the ongoing crackdown on dissent eliminates domestic pressure that could prompt pooteen to end the war.
Former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said that pooteen thinks "systemically," while Trump seeks "quick" solutions, acting like a businessman. That is why the two are unlikely to come to an agreement, the AP reported. On the contrary, pooteen will continue to slowly move towards strengthening russia's military position and weakening the political will of both Kyiv and the West.
https://apnews.com/article/putin-trump-russia-ukraine-war-51adbc0cde5a9ca0eaabf46153eb9580
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Greenland does not see it as a desirable offer. Greenland does not want to be part of the United States at all
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Greenland does not see it as a desirable offer. Greenland does not want to be part of the United States at all
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Greenland does not see it as a desirable offer. Greenland does not want to be part of the United States at all
I don't know anyone from Greenland and can't ask about it, but in Ukraine I would like to see the results of the referendum on joining not only NATO, but also the United States.
US President Donald Trump said in an interview with the New York Post that he spoke on the phone with russian President Vladimir pooteen about the war in Ukraine. It is not known exactly when this happened. When asked how many times the two presidents spoke on the phone, Trump replied: "I'd rather not speak."
The US president also said that he has a clear plan for ending the war. "I hope it will be quick," Trump said, adding that "they want to meet" (presumably referring to the presidents of russia and Ukraine).
https://nypost.com/2025/02/08/us-news/trump-and-putin-in-talks-to-end-the-russia-ukraine-war/
A week ago, Trump told reporters that his administration has "meetings and talks" with Ukraine, russia and other parties to end the war. The US president said that he would "probably" meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky next week.
Zelensky says that it is important for him to meet with Donald Trump before pooteen meets with him.
So Zelensky has been clearly shown his place and status.
In the meantime, russia attacks every night with drones, 150 of them a night, half of which are shot down, and sometimes with missiles, which are not officially reported. But in Kyiv, with temperatures at night reaching -10C, there were no power or heating outages. If the drones attack not too late, I sometimes go to the balcony to watch the air battles in the night sky.
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Given the choice, I also would much rather read poetry to penguins, than to be at the front!
It would be nice for Ukraine to join the US, however, the US of today is, in my opinion, far weaker than widely recognized, and too weak to absorb such a task. Our military is strong but our finances are weak, our politics are starkly divided and weak, and anyone who goes to a local Walmart can see the general fitness level for themselves. Again I emphasize: "in my opinion." Others may have a different perspective, which I respect.
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Wlad, I’m happy to hear that your health is still stable despite all of the stress you are under.
Brady, best wishes to your wife for continued improvement and good outcomes with any further surgery.
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Few people pay attention to the daily drone attacks lately, but last night Kyiv was also attacked with ballistic missiles and it was really loud. Several buildings in Kyiv were damaged, one person was killed and several were injured. https://vechirniy.kyiv.ua/news/108587/
It is expected that russia will increase attacks at a time when the fate of Ukraine is being decided.
The Ramstein-format meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group is taking place at NATO headquarters in Brussels. The US is being represented at the meeting for the first time by the new head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, and the meeting is being chaired by non-Americans for the first time - Britain is chairing it.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said it was unrealistic to expect Ukraine to return to the borders of 2014, when russia annexed Crimea and started the war in Donbas.
Speaking at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels, Hegseth said that a lasting peace could only be achieved with a "realistic assessment of the battlefield."
He noted that the US does not see Ukraine's membership in NATO as part of a future peace plan and ruled out the deployment of US troops in Ukraine under any future security arrangements.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cgrnvlww8z5o
President Donald Trump said negotiations to end the Ukraine war will start “immediately” after holding a “lengthy and highly productive” telephone call with russian President Vladimir pooteen yesterday. In a readout of the conversation posted on Truth Social, Trump said, “We discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, Energy, Artificial Intelligence, the power of the Dollar, and various other subjects.”
“We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations. We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelensky, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now,” Trump wrote. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/12/politics/putin-trump-phone-call/index.html
Donald Trump says he will likely meet with Vladimir pooteen in the "not too distant future", probably in Saudi Arabia. Volodymyr Zelensky's office has confirmed that the Ukrainian president also spoke to his American counterpart in an hour-long phone call. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c4g97971rwnt
The EU expects Kyiv to ease restrictions within the framework of martial law, demands strengthening the rights of the opposition, and advises not to forget about Hungarian demands. And, of course, they remind about reforms. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/articles/2025/02/10/7204576/
The National Security and Defense Council has imposed personal sanctions against Ukrainian opposition leader and former President Petro Poroshenko. Zelenskyy accuses him of treason. Poroshenko talks about political persecution. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c87dv228q80o
People's Deputy, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Danylo Hetmantsev stated that before involving the US in the extraction of Ukrainian subsoil, it is necessary to conduct an audit and return these subsoil to the ownership of Ukraine. That is, there is nothing or almost nothing to offer partners. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/vsi-dozvoli-na-komertsiyno-tsikavi-rodovishcha-v-ukraini-vzhe-rozdani-povazhnim-lyudyam-getmantsev
The Cabinet of Ministers has allocated UAH 15 billion ($360 million) to compensate internally displaced persons for housing damaged or destroyed as a result of the Russian Federation's armed aggression, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced. https://borgexpert.com/news/uriad-vydilyv-15-miliardiv-na-kompensatsiiu-pereselentsiam-za-zrujnovane-zhytlo
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has introduced a military contract for 18-24-year-old volunteers who want to join the Defense Forces for a year. Volunteers will receive 1 million hryvnias ($24,000) in one-time cash assistance, which will be paid in installments:
200,000 UAH - after signing the contract;
300,000 UAH - after completing training;
500,000 UAH - after completing service
In addition, the program includes a number of social benefits:
Compensation for housing rent during service;
The opportunity to obtain a mortgage at 0% after completing the contract within the framework of a special program;
Free education at higher education institutions at state expense after completing service;
Free medical care, including dental services and dentures;
The right to travel abroad after completing contract service;
Exemption from mobilization for 12 months after completing the contract.
https://suspilne.media/946393-minoboroni-prezentuvalo-kontrakt-dla-18-24-ricnih/
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Why bother to have negotiations? Trump and Hegseth have already given away almost everything publicly. But it’s certainly considerate that they will “inform” Zelensky (and the Ukrainian public). /s. No doubt we will be told later by Trump that the negotiations were “very tough on Russia, very tough”.
I’m not surprised that it has taken almost a month after the “stop the war in 24 hours” period just to get to the point of planning to hold “negotiations”. Putin probably refused to discuss the matter with Trump at all to let him stew until he was even more eager to agree to almost anything.
Trump is right about one thing: Europe (and Taiwan, etc) needs to vastly increase their defenses, because likely none of it will come from the US while he is in office.
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Europe also needs to increase their defenses because they have relied far too heavily on the US for far too long, and the mistake on the US side has been to shoulder all of the responsibility for the world's defenses and everything else until, financially, we have no other choice but to make massive cutbacks in our expenditures across the board. The US debt bomb is reaching critical mass, unfortunately, and either austerity or inflation are the only ways out.
At least Americans (except for the last few remaining neocons) have stopped blabbering about American Exceptionalism now, as though that means we can do anything we want, no matter how expensive or impractical. A return to reality is upon us, and I think it's going to get far worse before it gets better.
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Well certainly I agree that the US has too long shouldered too much of the burden. But realistically it will take a long time for Europe and Asia to build sufficient defenses, and like it or not, we are still far and away the strongest military and also have much to lose if tyrants take control of major parts of the world.
As for the US debt, we also cannot continue with more and more tax breaks, underfunding the IRS ability to collect taxes and prosecute major cheats, and a Byzantine tax code loaded with special breaks for every Congressman’s favorite campaign contributors (an exaggeration to drive the point, but not by much).
There are two sides to the budget: revenue and expense. Neither can be ignored.
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I agree; as I had stated previously, we have no business cutting taxes when we are so far in debt and running deficits that are about 50% of the Federal budget. We need to both cut spending and let tax rates go back to where they were. But I don't think we will do much of either, as both parties are addicted to deficit spending.
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You Americans are overweight. You are living on a lie fed by Trump and your vice president.
Yes, there is an ocean between us and you. But there is also an ocean between you and North Korea and China. We will not help you if you continue your aggression against Europe.
The speech that J. D. Vance gave at the Munich Security Council was direct hate speech against Europe. We will punish the United States for this speech.
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The last few days have been very eventful, and it is almost impossible to keep track of who said what. Therefore, all that remains is to record certain events or actions.
Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on the introduction of personal sanctions against Petro Poroshenko. The decision to this effect was made the day before by the National Security and Defense Council, which is headed by the President of Ukraine.
The measures against the opposition leader include the blocking of assets, a ban on economic activity, and the deprivation of ranks and awards. In fact, such sanctions will significantly limit the political and any other activities of Petro Poroshenko.
The sanctions package also includes businessmen Ihor Kolomoisky, Hennadiy Bogolyubov, Kostyantyn Zhevago, and former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Viktor Medvedchuk. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cd0j9gd9lkyo
Sanctions as an instrument of force in international relations are used in Ukraine for political persecution and extrajudicial confiscation of property of those accused of treason or cooperation with russia. No evidence is required for this, it is enough to adopt a decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, whose members are appointed by the President, and a Decree of the President himself.
Commenting on the sanctions, Zelensky said he would lift them if Poroshenko returned the money he allegedly stole. In reality, this looks like ordinary extortion.
A surprising coincidence can be considered the introduction of sanctions against those who own licenses for the extraction of minerals, which Trump claims.
russian commentators are overjoyed by Washington’s shift of policy on Ukraine - they literally cannot believe their luck.
"That’s the best thing about politics: sometimes it exceeds your wildest expectations," MP Oleg Morozov says on state-run rossiya TV. Referring to the telephone conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir pooteen, he said: "I can’t recall another day in recent history that has changed our moods so much." https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c4g97971rwnt?post=asset%3A73c61292-3f1b-4af5-9077-0c03e93b401a#post
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From two days ago, here is Trump’s response to a question from the press on whether Ukraine is an equal member in the peace process. (20 seconds)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HLpklgSyrNk
For some odd reason I am reminded of the 1938 Munich Agreement effectively ceding Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany.
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1 million hryvnias ($24,000)
Long story short: this is itself quadruple as much as average income.
According to statistics average monthly income per capita - yes, we're used with calculating per month but not per hour, reached UAH20'964 or approx $499 in second quarter 2024. Roughly $6000 per year. Obvious shortage of job seekers due mobilization itself, due huge number of escapees, and huge amount of those to hide from being force mobilized pushes wages enormously, so that given figure is pretty much optimistic and would likely decrease after the war.
In addition, the program includes a number of social benefits:
Compensation for housing rent during service;
The opportunity to obtain a mortgage at 0% after completing the contract within the framework of a special program;
Free education at higher education institutions at state expense after completing service;
Free medical care, including dental services and dentures;
The right to travel abroad after completing contract service;
Exemption from mobilization for 12 months after completing the contract.
Huge benefits that many times multiply the $24'000.
IMO the offer appears definitely generous for a young man with good health but with no ability to engage cronyism or corruption levers to build one's career.
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From two days ago, here is Trump’s response to a question from the press on whether Ukraine is an equal member in the peace process. (20 seconds)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HLpklgSyrNk
For some odd reason I am reminded of the 1938 Munich Agreement effectively ceding Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany.
A wonderful winter day and snow outside, but complete madness in politics and international relations.
Trump said on Thursday, February, 13 that he expected russian officials to also be at the conference in Munich and suggested they could meet with US and Ukrainian officials - but a senior Ukrainian official said talks with russia were not expected.
"russia is going to be there with our people," the US president said in comments made to the reporters."Ukraine is also invited, by the way, not sure exactly who's going to be there from any country - but high-level people from russia, from Ukraine and from the United States." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy5k6gk50qvo
US Vice-President JD Vance has launched a scalding attack on European democracies, saying the greatest threat facing the continent was not from russia and China, but "from within".
It had been expected that Vance would use his speech at the Munich Security Conference to address possible talks to end the war in Ukraine. Instead, he spent the majority accusing European governments - including the UK's - of retreating from their values, and ignoring voter concerns on migration and free speech. The address was met by silence in the hall, and later denounced by several politicians at the conference. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said it was "not acceptable". Vance repeated the Trump administration's line that Europe must "step up in a big way to provide for its own defence". https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceve3wl21x1o
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke at a press conference as part of the Munich Security Conference and during his speech at the conference about relations with the new US administration and options for a peaceful resolution of the war. In his speech, Zelensky stressed the need for Europe to participate in peace negotiations and said that a peace treaty cannot be signed in Munich.
"We all remember what was signed here," Zelensky said, referring to the 1938 agreement that allowed Germany to annex the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia. "I don't see that the US has a ready-made plan to end the war," he said. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c0jn0yw3xlyo
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he would not give up on Ukraine's potential membership in NATO. He also believes that the European Union should create its own army, and not rely on US assistance. Regarding the agreement on the extraction of Ukrainian rare earth metals, which the US insists on, Zelensky said that "talks are still ongoing."
Zelensky also said that it was "inappropriate" to hold elections in Ukraine in the near future. Earlier, US President's special representative Keith Kellogg said that, according to the White House, parliamentary and presidential elections should be held in Ukraine by the end of this year.
"I am ready to talk about elections. Ukrainians do not want this. They do not want this at all, because they are afraid, because otherwise we will lose martial law, the soldiers will return home and pooteen will seize all our territory. This will happen. Because now we are mobilized, now we are one organism, one country," Zelensky said.
According to the president, the elections will disrupt the unity of Ukrainians. "We need unity within the country. This is not about me, this is about the future of our country, this is about today. The question is how to survive, how to save Ukraine, our independence, our people, our home. If someone doesn't like it, they can choose another citizenship if they want."
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c74m2nl9jn4o
Ukrainians reacted to the latest statement with numerous memes and jokes, reminding that choosing another citizenship is impossible because the president has not satisfied a single application for renunciation of Ukrainian citizenship in the past few years. In addition, it is impossible to leave Ukraine legally, and buying an illegal opportunity to leave Ukraine already costs about 20,000 US dollars.
Vladimir pooteen is assembling a heavyweight team with decades of experience in high-stakes negotiations to face off against US President Donald Trump’s representatives for a deal to end russia’s war in Ukraine.
They include Yuri Ushakov, his chief Kremlin foreign-policy adviser who has more than half a century of involvement in diplomacy, and his top spymaster, Sergei Naryshkin, who served with pooteen in the Soviet KGB, according to people familiar with situation, who asked not to be identified discussing internal information.
That pooteen is opting to rely mostly on highly skilled and experienced negotiators to represent russia in any talks is hardly a surprise. The personnel choices underscore just how determined the russian leader is to secure a favorable outcome in any negotiations and potentially how little his demands in relation to Ukraine have changed in the three years since he ordered the full-scale invasion.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-14/putin-assembles-team-of-heavyweights-to-negotiate-ukraine-deal
Ukrainian authorities said that on the night of February 14, russia attacked the shelter of the destroyed power unit of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant with a drone. "The shelter at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was damaged by this drone. The fire was extinguished. At the moment, the radiation background has not increased, and this is constantly monitored. According to initial estimates, the damage to the shelter is significant," the president wrote on social media. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1kmdrn2kylo
Judging by the photos and videos from surveillance cameras, the drone was small and only damaged the outer covering of the hangar that was built over the destroyed reactor, but it was a great news item. Considering that it happened right during the conference in Munich, I don’t even know who did it and for what purpose.
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Trump administration's mixed messaging on foreign policy leaves world guessing, so European leaders plan emergency summit as US and russia prepare for Ukraine peace talks.
The US should not exclude Ukrainian and European governments from its peace talks with russia, the German ambassador to the UK says. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/crr0gngkjrvt
russian TV has begun to prepare russians for peace talks with Ukraine. At the same time, they emphasize bilateral negotiations between the US and russia, which must first agree and make a joint decision. They also celebrate the restoration of relations with the US and the return of russia to the international arena as a full-fledged player recognized by all. A clear victory for pooteen.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ce857x3dl35o
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1 million hryvnias ($24,000)
Long story short: this is itself quadruple as much as average income.
According to statistics average monthly income per capita - yes, we're used with calculating per month but not per hour, reached UAH20'964 or approx $499 in second quarter 2024. Roughly $6000 per year. Obvious shortage of job seekers due mobilization itself, due huge number of escapees, and huge amount of those to hide from being force mobilized pushes wages enormously, so that given figure is pretty much optimistic and would likely decrease after the war.
In addition, the program includes a number of social benefits:
Compensation for housing rent during service;
The opportunity to obtain a mortgage at 0% after completing the contract within the framework of a special program;
Free education at higher education institutions at state expense after completing service;
Free medical care, including dental services and dentures;
The right to travel abroad after completing contract service;
Exemption from mobilization for 12 months after completing the contract.
Huge benefits that many times multiply the $24'000.
IMO the offer appears definitely generous for a young man with good health but with no ability to engage cronyism or corruption levers to build one's career.
Perhaps my perception of the world is distorted by the fact that I am a lawyer and have seen many beautiful proposals that were not followed by anything, and contracts that were not fulfilled.
I do not see answers to who will fulfill the obligations of the state even in a month. And in general, copying the russians in two years seems wrong to me. For russians, this war is a war of conquest and the opportunity to make money on it is a natural motivation. For a Ukrainian soldier, it all comes down to the need to simply continue to fight. But as the history of many wars shows, sooner or later the survivors simply throw down their weapons and disperse.
And a belated offer of money and other benefits looks like injustice for those who have been fighting for three years and must continue this without any bonuses.
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Injustices... I think the longer a war goes on, the more injustices begin to occur and compound themselves, in any country that is involved. Which is one of many reasons why the war needs to be ended.
No one should expect that any peace deal will bring the perpetrator country to justice, as they never do. Even though Germany started WW2, they were not punished - and they outright lost, they didn't settle for peace. In fact, the generous Marshall Plan prevailed over the punishing Morgenthau Plan for Germany, as we know. (Of course partly this was true because of the 1920s punishment of Germany that led to Hitler's rise).
I'm hoping for the best outcome that can be realistically achieved. Like everyone, I don't know what that realistic outcome can be, or will be.
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I think only one plan can solve the russian problem: Make Russia Small Again.
In the meantime, every evening there are new drone and missile attacks.
The United States and russia will appoint high-level teams to negotiate the end of the war in Ukraine and are working to reestablish diplomatic channels, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the end of key talks that excluded Kyiv.
Even the fact that the talks were held at all was a major victory for russia. The meeting marked the first time top-level US and russian officials had met face to face since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and they marked a complete reversal of policy from that of the Biden administration. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/18/europe/us-russia-riyadh-talks-intl/index.html
Donald Trump says that talks between US and russian officials in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday were "very good" and that he is now "much more confident" of a Ukraine peace deal. The president was answering reporters' questions at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, where a BBC journalist asked whether Ukrainians might feel "betrayed" after not being invited to the talks in Riyadh. Trump responded that Ukrainians have already had three years to negotiate for peace in the war that began with russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c9vmzvz9ez0t
russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said his country won't accept peacekeeping forces from Nato countries in Ukraine under any peace deal, following high-level talks with the US in Saudi Arabia. Afterwards, Lavrov said the US and russia would appoint ambassadors to each other's countries as soon as possible and create conditions to "restore co-operation in full".
russia and the United States are proposing a three-stage peace plan that includes a ceasefire, elections in Ukraine, and then the signing of a final agreement. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-russian-officials-propose-peace-plan-lay-groundwork-cooperation-riyadh?intcmp=tw_fnc
Perhaps the US and russia are already discussing the candidacy of the next Ukrainian president, who will suit both sides and sign everything that he is told.
European leaders held a hastily-arranged meeting in Paris on Monday to discuss their response to the apparent rapprochement between russia and the US under President Trump - but did not agree a unified position.
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said any Ukraine deal would require a "US backstop" to deter russia from attacking its neighbour again and said he would consider deploying UK troops to Ukraine.
But Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a key Nato ally, said for his part, discussing sending troops to Ukraine at present was "completely premature".
Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk also said he does not intend to send troops, and Italy's Giorgia Meloni - the only European leader to attend Trump's inauguration - expressed doubts.
She told the meeting in Paris that deploying European troops would be "the most complex and the least effective" way of securing peace in Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0n5e1pdz9o
While civilians watch the political show, the military continues to fight in increasingly worse conditions. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg151j5504o
Personally, I'm a little saddened that observing such fateful times doesn't evoke any special emotions...
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I think only one plan can solve the russian problem: Make Russia Small Again.
I definitely agree with this! One of the hardest things for me to accept about geopolitics is how the possession of nuclear weapons makes a country untouchable by the entire civilized world, no matter what that country may do. Russia is one example, and North Korea is an extreme example in terms of their paucity of nuclear weapons, yet they are immune to any attack by civilization. Iran, of course, wants to be in that club, and hopefully never will be. As we all know, Ukraine was in that club, but gave it up in exchange for a lie that they would be protected by the US and UK. As we say in this country, "Sure you can trust the government, just ask an (american) Indian!" Once Russia grabbed Crimea and Obama did nothing in response, the writing was on the wall for Putin. But Obama was noted for his "red lines' that once crossed, meant nothing.
On the subject of Lavrov declaring that no NATO soldiers could be allowed into Ukraine (and a further confirmation that the lie referenced above will continue)... given the statements by Hegseth, Scholz, Starmer, et. al., it sounds like everyone other than Ukraine agrees with Lavrov that there will be no Western troops guaranteeing anything in Ukraine. How convenient for Russia. So we are essentially back to the 'nukes make Russia unchallengeable' scenario, in my estimation.
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Update: I now see that Starmer and the Swedes have backed off on the "no peacekeeper troops in Ukraine" statement. I doubt they are serious, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
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Given today's statements by Trump, unless he turns it around really fast, he seems to be on track to give Putin everything he wants in exchange for a short-lived peace. Very disappointing!
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The US President's special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, arrived in Kyiv on the morning of February 19. The previous night, Kyiv had been under attack by russian drones, although judging by the sounds they were either very large drones or missiles. There was no official word on the consequences.
"We will listen. We will provide what is necessary. We understand the need for security guarantees," he said. He explained that upon his return to the US, he would tell Trump about his impressions and observations, "to make sure we understand everything correctly." https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c204rlnzvkeo
Speaking to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago residence, Trump was asked by the BBC what his message was to Ukrainians who might feel betrayed. "I hear that they're upset about not having a seat, well, they've had a seat for three years and a long time before that. This could have been settled very easily," he said. "You should have never started it. You could have made a deal," he later added.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0n5e1pdz9o
Many people interpreted Trump's words as blaming Ukraine for starting the war. I don't know what Trump meant, but it looks like he's repeating the Kremlin's narrative. The absurdity of such accusations is simply incredible.
Donald Trump is demanding Volodymyr Zelensky hold elections that could oust him from office as the price of peace. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/02/18/zelensky-will-be-forced-hold-elections-under-us-russia-plan/
I would like to quote John Mac Ghlionn from The Hill on this issue:
A good leader prioritizes the survival of his nation. He knows when to fight, and more importantly, he knows when to negotiate. Zelensky, however, has made it clear that his power depends on war, and war alone.
Since russia’s invasion in 2022, Zelensky had banned several opposition parties, banned certain media outlets and postponed elections with the justification that wartime voting is “impossible.” Impossible for whom? For the soldiers in the trenches, or for the civilians now living under indefinite martial law?
Ukraine is in a desperate position. The country’s losses are catastrophic. Manpower is running thin, which is why Zelensky has resorted to hunting men down in the streets. There are countless reports of Ukrainian men being dragged from cafes and nightclubs and thrown into vans like criminals.
Martial law means there is no way out. You cannot leave the country. You cannot refuse. This is not the mark of a confident government. This is the behavior of a desperate regime trying to hold itself together by force.
And yet the war must continue. It is the only thing keeping Zelensky in power. If he were to call elections, he would likely lose. Support for him is falling. The longer this drags on, the more obvious it becomes that Ukraine cannot win — not in any meaningful sense. This is not 2022. The optimism of those early months, when the world believed Ukraine might push russia back, is gone. Even the U.S., Ukraine’s biggest backer, is slowly dialing down support, with Washington insiders admitting that a total Ukrainian victory is no longer the goal.
https://thehill.com/opinion/5146149-zelensky-war-ego/
"Zelensky better move fast or he is not going to have a country left," US President Donald Trump says in a post on Truth Social.
Labelling Zelensky "a dictator", Trump writes: "I love Ukraine, but Zelensky has done a terrible job, his country is shattered, and MILLIONS have unnecessarily died."
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c62e2158mkpt
The size of Ukraine will depend on the number of people who are ready to defend the country. It is not only about the Armed Forces, but also about the number of people ready to take up arms and stand up for the defense of the state, said the Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom, former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/3961817-rozmiri-ukraini-zalezatimut-vid-kilkosti-ludej-gotovih-ii-zahisati-zaluznij.html
But as practice shows, the less likely it is that someone will end up in a trench, the more furiously he calls for fighting...
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Hello Wlad, and my other friends. To your quote from The Hill, I would respond: As shocking as yesterday's Trump statements were, the one thing I did concede to Trump is that his assessment of Z. and what Z. is doing, is very similar to what I have read here on this forum, about Z. While I understand that during a war of survival, certain rights may need to be suspended, one of those things is not elections. During the US's civil war, elections were held in which Lincoln was re-elected - this despite the fact that a third to a half of US states could not participate.
I can't say that Z wants to be a dictator, but he seems to be acting as one, as a practical matter.
That said, Trump should be much more careful how he expresses himself. To say that Russia was demanding security guarantees against NATO encroachment prior to the invasion, that were ignored by the West, is one thing. (I believe that is probably what he was referring to). To characterize ignoring those demands as "starting the war," is a totally different thing, and comes off as an outright mischaracterization, of Russian proportions.
Although most of us have known that Ukraine isn't likely to regain the eastern districts now occupied by Russia, it was stupid of Hegseth to concede this prior to negotiations, and stupid of Trump to not keep Hegseth on a short leash until he could be told what not to say.
On the positive side (in my opinion), freezing the Europeans out of the negotiations seems to have gotten them talking about raising their commitments of peacekeeping forces and defense spending, so they can appear relevant again, and buy their way to the negotiating table. They are far behind the curve in taking care of their own continent, as usual.
We sure live in interesting times.
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Injustices... I think the longer a war goes on, the more injustices begin to occur and compound themselves, in any country that is involved. Which is one of many reasons why the war needs to be ended.
No one should expect that any peace deal will bring the perpetrator country to justice, as they never do. Even though Germany started WW2, they were not punished - and they outright lost, they didn't settle for peace. In fact, the generous Marshall Plan prevailed over the punishing Morgenthau Plan for Germany, as we know. (Of course partly this was true because of the 1920s punishment of Germany that led to Hitler's rise).
I'm hoping for the best outcome that can be realistically achieved. Like everyone, I don't know what that realistic outcome can be, or will be.
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Disclaimer:
You voted for Trumph
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"bluesky": Do you have a point to make about that?
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Trump has malignant narcissist personality disorder. His statements and actions regarding Ukraine are therefore not surprising.
He never forgets a slight, and always seeks to punish any disobedience or disrespect. He has not forgotten that Zelensky ignored his request to find dirt on the Biden family. Zelensky’s rather gentle recent statement about Trump being in a web of disinformation, in the face of Trump blaming Ukraine for the war and the imminent “peace” process without Ukrainian participation, has clearly enraged Trump who will be even more determined to punish Ukraine.
Russia will be given almost everything it wants in the “peace” process, as is clear from Trump and Vance statements. Putin, understanding Trump’s psychology and seizing the day, may audaciously ask for even more, perhaps a reversal of NATO membership for Finland and Sweden. Putin will rearm and attack Ukraine again during Trump’s term in office knowing that he will do nothing to stop it. He may even try attacking a small, weak NATO member.
Trump has long wanted to build a hotel and other projects in Moscow. Don’t be surprised if that is announced sometime after the Ukraine “peace” process is concluded.
Trump admires Putin, and dictators and authoritarians of all types, because he aspires to be one. His damaged, fragile ego would then have the ultimate satisfaction of being a king. Among his flurry of many illegal executive orders, he recently revoked federal approval for NYC traffic congestion pricing and declared on X that "CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD. Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!" This is not merely rhetoric, it’s a glimpse of the real Donald Trump. He recently declared on Truth Social that "He who saves his Country does not violate any Law," echoing Napoleon.
On this side of the pond, I fully expect Trump to cause a devastating constitutional crisis by ignoring high US court orders as they inevitably rule against many of his executive orders (and we are only one month into his term). A similar kingly sentiment was posted on X by VP Vance (who holds a Juris Doctor from Yale) who said “Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive branch’s legitimate power”. Besides being abhorrent, it’s factually incorrect and ignores the separation of powers in the US constitution, which gives the co-equal judicial branch sole authority to interpret the constitution and decide the law, and elevates the executive branch above all others. Later on a trip to Europe, Vance had the gall to criticize and lecture Europeans about democracy.
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Bob, I agree with you about Trump's personality, he is a very flawed man in many ways. Taken as a whole in terms of policies, I would still vote for him rather than Harris, if the election were today rather than in November. There are a lot of things that have contributed to the situation in Ukraine being what it is, and only a few of them can be attributed to Trump. I am still hopeful that the war will be ended and there will be a lasting peace with European peacekeepers. Part of that depends on Trump, but more of it depends on whether Europe is willing to step into the role of providing troops. Trump is in a constitutionally-limited office and I'm not worried about his becoming a dictator, even if he wants to.
I'm sure you don't agree with much of what I've said, but I also don't think we want this forum to become being about US politics, rather than about Ukraine.
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Hi Brady, don’t worry - I do not intend to divert this forum to US domestic issues. However, sometimes our domestic issues are very relevant to Ukraine and my comments above are offered in that context.
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Hello Wlad, and my other friends. To your quote from The Hill, I would respond: As shocking as yesterday's Trump statements were, the one thing I did concede to Trump is that his assessment of Z. and what Z. is doing, is very similar to what I have read here on this forum, about Z. While I understand that during a war of survival, certain rights may need to be suspended, one of those things is not elections. During the US's civil war, elections were held in which Lincoln was re-elected - this despite the fact that a third to a half of US states could not participate.
I can't say that Z wants to be a dictator, but he seems to be acting as one, as a practical matter.
That said, Trump should be much more careful how he expresses himself. To say that Russia was demanding security guarantees against NATO encroachment prior to the invasion, that were ignored by the West, is one thing. (I believe that is probably what he was referring to). To characterize ignoring those demands as "starting the war," is a totally different thing, and comes off as an outright mischaracterization, of Russian proportions.
Although most of us have known that Ukraine isn't likely to regain the eastern districts now occupied by Russia, it was stupid of Hegseth to concede this prior to negotiations, and stupid of Trump to not keep Hegseth on a short leash until he could be told what not to say.
On the positive side (in my opinion), freezing the Europeans out of the negotiations seems to have gotten them talking about raising their commitments of peacekeeping forces and defense spending, so they can appear relevant again, and buy their way to the negotiating table. They are far behind the curve in taking care of their own continent, as usual.
We sure live in interesting times.
These are really interesting times. Unfortunately or fortunately, I am so absorbed in my work that I do not have time to focus on what is happening in the world. Although I understand what great opportunities all these changes bring.
I do not consider Zelensky a dictator, if only because he has no real power. He continues to play the president, even if he sincerely believes in what he says and does. In any case, I would not want to be in his place and he cannot help but understand the situation he has found himself in. I wonder if he will be able to escape like Yanukovych, Assad or Ghani, or will he play the victim to the end and end up like Gaddafi or Hussein.
One of the advantages of democracy and elections is the ability to leave in time with virtually no consequences or responsibility for your actions.
I have the impression that Trump often quite sincerely says what he really thinks. And this is something that needs to be taken into account. For example, he has long warned Europe about his intentions.
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Trump has malignant narcissist personality disorder. His statements and actions regarding Ukraine are therefore not surprising.
He never forgets a slight, and always seeks to punish any disobedience or disrespect. He has not forgotten that Zelensky ignored his request to find dirt on the Biden family. Zelensky’s rather gentle recent statement about Trump being in a web of disinformation, in the face of Trump blaming Ukraine for the war and the imminent “peace” process without Ukrainian participation, has clearly enraged Trump who will be even more determined to punish Ukraine.
Obviously, this is just a pretext, but the consequences will follow for the whole country, and not just Zelensky. And this is another good lesson that will not be learned by Ukrainians who do not realize their responsibility for their choice and support of Zelensky and the oligarchs.
Russia will be given almost everything it wants in the “peace” process, as is clear from Trump and Vance statements. Putin, understanding Trump’s psychology and seizing the day, may audaciously ask for even more, perhaps a reversal of NATO membership for Finland and Sweden. Putin will rearm and attack Ukraine again during Trump’s term in office knowing that he will do nothing to stop it. He may even try attacking a small, weak NATO member.
Trump has long wanted to build a hotel and other projects in Moscow. Don’t be surprised if that is announced sometime after the Ukraine “peace” process is concluded.
Trump admires Putin, and dictators and authoritarians of all types, because he aspires to be one. His damaged, fragile ego would then have the ultimate satisfaction of being a king. Among his flurry of many illegal executive orders, he recently revoked federal approval for NYC traffic congestion pricing and declared on X that "CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD. Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!" This is not merely rhetoric, it’s a glimpse of the real Donald Trump. He recently declared on Truth Social that "He who saves his Country does not violate any Law," echoing Napoleon.
On this side of the pond, I fully expect Trump to cause a devastating constitutional crisis by ignoring high US court orders as they inevitably rule against many of his executive orders (and we are only one month into his term). A similar kingly sentiment was posted on X by VP Vance (who holds a Juris Doctor from Yale) who said “Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive branch’s legitimate power”. Besides being abhorrent, it’s factually incorrect and ignores the separation of powers in the US constitution, which gives the co-equal judicial branch sole authority to interpret the constitution and decide the law, and elevates the executive branch above all others. Later on a trip to Europe, Vance had the gall to criticize and lecture Europeans about democracy.
Both Trump and Putin are old people and represent an old era. They launched the processes of a new world order, but we will see what it will be like much later. But we must admit that old alliances and rules no longer work in the new conditions. This is the natural dynamics of the development of international relations and there will be those who lose and those who will take advantage of the opportunities and get more. The time has come for strong people and bold actions.
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Hi Brady, don’t worry - I do not intend to divert this forum to US domestic issues. However, sometimes our domestic issues are very relevant to Ukraine and my comments above are offered in that context.
Exactly! Unfortunately, those in power in Ukraine are not the people who could use all the opportunities that a change of administration in the US provides. I also hope that there will be a Finnish option - the loss of some territory, non-aligned status, development of the economy under Western control. And a sign of this is the signing of an agreement with the US on the use of mineral resources. I am sure that it will be signed, although we will certainly not be told about its full content and secret annexes.
I don't agree with Bloomberg's opinion that President Trump’s fixation on extracting elements from the war-torn nation is an illusion.
But I agree that the Ukrainians themselves started the hype around Ukraine’s rare earths. Desperate to find a way to engage Trump, they presented the president-elect with a “victory plan” in November that made a lot of noise about the country’s mineral potential. But they didn’t expect it to have such an impact.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-19/trump-s-insistence-ukraine-has-rare-earth-elements-is-wrong?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTczOTk1Mjk3OCwiZXhwIjoxNzQwNTU3Nzc4LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTUldaOElEV1JHRzAwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0NEMyQzc4RTVBMjQ0NjdDOTU5MDI0NjRBQjUwQ0U2MSJ9.AUGgELhGWI8WZONll_P-dj1bQKtCcyyJWoYgVLAZJAU&leadSource=uverify%20wall
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The possibility of rare earth mineral extraction was brilliant in the sense of giving Trump a reason to care about the future of Ukraine after the current fighting stops. The downside is that famously transactional and grasping Trump wants a retroactive contract for half or more of the minerals for aid already delivered. Are there enough of the minerals to be of practical significance and are they profitable enough to extract beginning in a reasonable time? I don’t know, but much of this will be an aspirational stage show anyway.
How will Putin be kept away for more than a few years that it takes for him to rearm? Minerals or not, I don’t see Trump supplying Ukraine with hundreds of millions of dollars in weaponry, and Ukraine no longer has the ready manpower for troops. Western peace keeping troops in Ukraine don’t seem possible, and a Finnish option of building a strong defensive non-NATO military in time seems very difficult to pay for given the simultaneous need to rebuild the devastated areas of the country (and the economy generally). Perhaps I lack sufficient imagination.
Also, how will the rebuilding alone be financed? Surely Putin wants the frozen Russian accounts in Western banks returned as part of the peace deal, probably with all or most of the accrued interest.
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How will Putin be kept away for more than a few years that it takes for him to rearm? Minerals or not, I don’t see Trump supplying Ukraine with hundreds of millions of dollars in weaponry, and Ukraine no longer has the ready manpower for troops. Western peace keeping troops in Ukraine don’t seem possible, and a Finnish option of building a strong defensive non-NATO military in time seems very difficult to pay for given the simultaneous need to rebuild the devastated areas of the country (and the economy generally). Perhaps I lack sufficient imagination.
Ukraine still has a huge potential. Just think about the fact that despite everything, the russians are still moving extremely slowly. Imagine what would happen if the Ukrainian army got enough weapons, and the Ukrainian people got a government that would think first of all about the interests of the country and people, and not about its own.
Exactly three years ago, the president brazenly lied, which cost hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKJtI_Vw8Rw&t=250s
"We are well aware of provocations and the advance of the aggressor's troops. We have the truth. And we will never hide the truth from you. As soon as we see a change in the situation, as soon as we see an increase in risks, you will know about it. There is no reason for chaotic actions now..."
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Ukraine still has a huge potential. Just think about the fact that despite everything, the russians are still moving extremely slowly. Imagine what would happen if the Ukrainian army got enough weapons, and the Ukrainian people got a government that would think first of all about the interests of the country and people, and not about its own.
Exactly three years ago, the president brazenly lied, which cost hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKJtI_Vw8Rw&t=250s
"We are well aware of provocations and the advance of the aggressor's troops. We have the truth. And we will never hide the truth from you. As soon as we see a change in the situation, as soon as we see an increase in risks, you will know about it. There is no reason for chaotic actions now..."
I am in complete agreement with you about the potential of Ukraine. Her people are naturally and undeniably innovative and hard working, as this war has demonstrated time and time again.
With consistent and honest rule of law, fair and reasonable taxation, logical policies to encourage the return of refuges, work, and investment, the country would do very well indeed. I hope that competent and honest people are elected soon after the war ends and that they quickly establish this.
Still, I believe there will be a need for large amounts of foreign investment, loans and donations for reconstruction and rearming. This must be done in such a way that corruption is very low or nonexistent. For example, not paying the money to the government for disbursement which invites corruption, and instead make direct payments to suppliers. A good example might be the policies of the US Marshall Plan after WW2.
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/how-did-the-marshal-plan-avoid-GEqPtjoiQe.qqslfaGL19A#0
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On the night of February 23, the russians launched 267 "Shahediv" and simulator drones over Ukraine, of which the Air Force shot down 138, but there was still damage. The regions most affected were: Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Poltava, Kyiv and Zaporizhia, where debris fell, fires broke out, and people were injured.
https://24tv.ua/ataka-shahediv-23-lyutogo-shho-vidomo-pro-naymasshtabnishiy-udar_n2759773
https://gordonua.com/ukr/news/military-actions/rosijski-udarni-bpla-atakuvali-kijiv-pozhezhi-vinikli-v-kilkokh-rajonakh-dsns-pokazala-naslidki-1734344.html
https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/694986-obstril-sogodni-rf-atakuvala-ukrajinu-bpla-ta-balistikoyu-novini-ukrajini?utm_source=ukrnet_news
Today is the russians' army holiday, and tomorrow is the third anniversary of the big invasion, so I think they will continue their air attacks tonight.
But official statistics are silent about the missiles again. It was very loud all night and believe me, I and many others have long been able to distinguish by sound when missiles and drones are shot down or when they hit the target.
I noticed that sleepless nights are bad for me and I feel pain in my chest again.
However, the attacks on Kyiv are more of a psychological nature.
One of the most powerful strikes occurred on February 11, when the russians launched a combined attack with drones and missiles in several waves. At that time, the Air Force reported that russia was targeting gas fields in the Poltava region.
Another massive strike occurred on the night of February 20. The Minister of Energy, Herman Galushchenko, has already reported on its consequences. He stated that this time, "production facilities, in particular, were damaged."
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cevxyw0rmlzo
Ukraine plans to import up to 800 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas from Europe in February and March to compensate for a sometimes 40% drop in production after russian missile strikes on the sector, a senior industry source told Reuters on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-plans-import-800-mcm-gas-until-april-after-russian-strikes-2025-02-21/
Polish President Andrzej Duda met with US President Donald Trump on February 22. During the meeting in Washington, the leaders discussed russia's war against Ukraine. "We must not allow russia to defeat Ukraine," Duda said. He believes that "without American support, Ukraine will not survive this war," and given the kind of russia and putin, for whom the lives of russian soldiers do not matter, "this war must be ended somehow." https://x.com/prezydentpl/status/1893593101739958442?mx=2
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The BBC conducted a study on how Ukraine has changed over the past three years, but in my opinion all the material losses do not compare with the population losses. According to UN calculations, since February 2022, Ukraine's population has decreased by 10 million, or about a quarter. According to a CIA report published in the fall of 2024, the mortality rate in Ukraine is 18.6 per thousand people. This is the highest rate in the world. Similarly, according to CIA data for 2024, Ukraine has the lowest birth rate in the world - six children per thousand people - and ranks 228th. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c5y43ggzqglo
The U.S. is refusing to co-sponsor a draft U.N. resolution marking three years since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine that backs Ukraine's territorial integrity and again demands russia withdraw its troops, three diplomatic sources told Reuters, in a potential stark shift by Ukraine's most powerful Western ally. Washington has also objected to a phrase in a statement the Group of Seven nations was planning to issue next week that would condemn russian aggression, two other sources told Reuters.
The U.S. refusal to agree to language that has been regularly used by the U.N. and G7 since February 2022 comes amid a widening rift between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump is trying to rapidly end the war in Ukraine and sent a team to hold talks with russia this week in Saudi Arabia without the involvement of Kyiv. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-refusing-co-sponsor-un-motion-backing-ukraine-ahead-war-anniversary-diplomats-2025-02-20/
Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference, Donald Trump said that Washington and Moscow are "close to an agreement" to end the war. He also said that the US intends to make a deal with Ukraine not only on rare earth metals, but also on other resources. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/crlxny1wn20o
Ukrainians increasingly prefer to keep money at home rather than in banks. According to the results of 2024, the amount of cash in circulation increased by 7.6%. Economic instability and the consequences of the war have caused distrust in the banking system, as citizens fear possible restrictions on withdrawals.
Additional factors:
Memories of the 2014–2015 crisis and the bankruptcy of many banks. Convenience of cash payments, especially in regions with limited access to digital payments. Privacy - many people do not want their finances to be tracked by banks or government agencies. Men's money can be seized without their knowledge due to real or perceived violations of military duties by unscrupulous officials. https://enovosty.com/uk/news-ukr/news-finance-ukr/full/vijmayut-z-bankiv-milyardami-shho-zmushuye-ukrainciv-masovo-zapasatisya-gotivkoyu
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Another drone attack at night, although I expected more. However, in the morning the sky was covered with smog of unknown origin. Judging by the smell, the forest was burning. The road to the office took twice as long as usual due to traffic jams due to the presence of foreign guests in Kyiv, including Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
On February 24, the third anniversary of russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 13 leaders from different countries gathered in the capital. They came in person to assure that they are still committed to supporting Ukraine despite the mixed messages coming from Washington in recent days.
Dozens of other leaders spoke at the summit online. In particular, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the president of Switzerland, the country that will chair the OSCE this year.
In total, about 40 countries participated in the summit, including EU countries, EU leaders, NATO, Canada, and Japan. It was noticeable that the US was not represented at this meeting.
Billions of euros in aid, new sanctions against russia, a proposal to exchange prisoners on an all-for-all basis, words of support for Ukrainians, peace, and "personally for President Zelensky" - this is how the "Support Ukraine" summit in Kyiv went. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cjry2qz7zyxo?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
Perhaps the most striking news of the day was the behavior of the United States at the special session during a United Nations General Assembly meeting. The United States joined russia to vote against a UN General Assembly resolution condemning russia’s war against Ukraine in a stunning shift from years of US policy, siding with russia and 14 russian allies.
The resolution was adopted by the General Assembly with 93 votes in favor. It notes “with concern the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the russian Federation has persisted for three years and continues to have devastating and long-lasting consequences not only for Ukraine, but also for other regions and global stability” and “calls for a de-escalation, an early cessation of hostilities and a peaceful resolution of the war against Ukraine.”
The US had introduced a rival General Assembly resolution, which did not call russia the aggressor or acknowledge Ukraine’s territorial integrity. But the US ended up abstaining on the vote for its own resolution at the General Assembly after several amendments were passed ahead of the vote to strengthen the language against russia and reaffirm Ukraine’s territorial integrity. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/24/politics/us-joins-russia-ukraine-un-vote/index.html
"Concessions on both sides." The US is close to a peace agreement on the war in Ukraine, the Istanbul Protocol can be a guideline, said US Presidential Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff on February 23. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/ssha-duzhe-blizko-do-domovlenostey-pro-zavershennya-viyni-v-ukrajini-stiv-vitkoff-50492385.html
For me the third anniversary of the great invasion passed rather mundanely. Perhaps because my head was mostly occupied with work.
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The guy who makes antennas for Ukrainian soldiers got an order from them again.
These are verticals for 155 and 430 MHz.
In order to make 100 pieces, 70,000 UAH are required.
Collected 17,000 UAH.
1 dollar = 42 UAH.
https://send.monobank.ua/jar/hnE5DdVQz
4441 1111 2121 5143
UA943220010000026208354956232
https://www.privat24.ua/send/2y7z8
5168752131838842
PayPal
UR8LV@ukr.net
https://ur8lv.com/1621841299
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I have read all the responses from my being away for a few days - family crisis. It seems there have been a lot of crises lately, around here!
I think it is almost impossible to tell what Washington's actual policy is, regarding Ukraine, and it is being intentionally confusing. I think anyone who's studied negotiation strategy understands that (for example) telling Putin what he wants to hear could be either: (a) genuine admiration, (b) the US playing "good cop, bad cop" with Trump being the good cop and Kellogg being the bad cop (from Putin's perspective), (c) an attempt to appear to be on Putin's side to fully convince Western Europe that they're on their own militarily, to finally get them off dead-center with increasing their own military defenses, or (d) all of the above, since none of them are mutually exclusive.
Similarly, the rare earths quasi-deal could be to: (a) allow the US to show that they got something strategically (vs China) and economically valuable in exchange for support, (b) an opportunity to get US companies to obtain contracts to extract the minerals, (c) to establish a "US strategic/economic interest" in Ukraine that would make attacking Ukraine in the future into a direct attack upon important US facilities, without needing to bring Ukraine into NATO.
Most confusing, when you start to think about all of the possible goals from the US side, and I have no idea which are real and which are not. So, I refrain from drawing conclusions until I see the results.
As an aside, NATO will be holding a summit only 15 miles from my house in May, it should be an interesting and also congested time!
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I agree that there may be many options and the fact that there is still uncertainty is really good. I don't know how Trump plays chess, but playing golf also requires strategic thinking and precise calculation. After Trump outplayed two opponents in the election campaign, I think he will cope with all the rest. Another thing is that Ukraine and its interests are not something he will take into account in his game. In the big game with China, Ukraine is a small pawn that can easily be sacrificed.
Kyiv has agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal that Ukrainian officials hope will improve relations with the Trump administration and pave the way for a long-term US security commitment. Ukrainian officials say Kyiv is now ready to sign the agreement on jointly developing its mineral resources, including oil and gas, after the US dropped demands for a right to $500bn in potential revenue from exploiting the resources. https://www.ft.com/content/1890d104-1395-4393-a71d-d299aed448e6
EU offers its own ‘win-win’ minerals deal to Ukraine. The European Union offered its own agreement on "critical materials" to Ukraine on Monday, just as U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Washington was close to inking a deal with Kyiv for the rights to its vast natural resources. "Twenty-one of the 30 critical materials Europe needs can be provided by Ukraine in a win-win partnership," Séjourné said, according to AFP. https://www.politico.eu/article/critical-minerals-rare-earths-deal-eu-not-donald-trump/
Against this backdrop, putin also made a statement about minerals. In an interview with russian state television, he said that he was ready to "offer" the Americans resources in joint projects, including mining in "new territories of russia," that is, in occupied Ukrainian lands. The offer could also include cooperation between the two countries in mining and supplying aluminum to the United States to stabilize prices, putin added. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cj0q227v6z2o
French President Emmanuel Macron said after meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington that he believes a ceasefire between russia and Ukraine is possible in the coming weeks. The ceasefire should be followed by talks on a long-term peace. Europe, Macron said, is ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine, including sending a peacekeeping contingent there. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/czx7k540en6o
At around 4 am on February 24, 2022, the russian army launched an offensive into Ukrainian territory. It was carried out from several directions at once: south, east, and north. However, it was in the south, where it seemed easiest for Ukrainians to hold the narrow Crimean isthmus, that the russian offensive achieved the greatest success. Why this happened is still unknown.
Within hours of the start of the invasion from the territory of occupied Crimea, russian military columns were able to reach Kherson and Novaya Kakhovka, that is, to go 60-80 km into the rear.
In parallel, the russian army developed an offensive to the east, where by the end of February - beginning of March 2022 it was able to capture such large cities as Berdyansk, Melitopol, Energodar, and the nearby Zaporizhzhia NPP. Then a long and bloody siege of Mariupol began, which fell in mid-May.
After three years of full-scale war, the territorial gains in southern Ukraine remain the Kremlin’s most significant achievement and one of the most mysterious aspects of the conflict. Neither Ukraine’s political nor military leadership can provide a comprehensive answer to why the south failed. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c30ml7861z0o
Yesterday I learned that Friedrich Merz DK7DQ won the elections in Germany.
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Wlad, I agree with you that Ukraine's well-being may be a very tiny consideration for Trump. BUT, one thing about Trump is that he desperately wants to be viewed as a winner, and in order to be perceived as a winner, he has to prevent Russia from re-invading Ukraine after any peace deal is implemented. By the way I do not think his is any different from the motivation that other world leaders have had (that is, putting their interests first), but Trump is more transparent about it. For instance, the Bush presidents wrapping their military actions in Kuwait and Iraq in patriotic, democratic, and moral terms, while the real reasons were more about oil, world power, and getting even with Saddam Hussein. Does anyone believe that the US would have defended Kuwait from Saddam Hussein in 1992, if Kuwait didn't have oil?
While I have no illusions about geopolitics being primarily driven by morality or a sense of noblesse oblige, I am heartened by the fact that unlike any time in the past three years, leaders are at least trading ideas about how to to stop the slaughter of war, even if for selfish reasons.
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Hi Braden!
This also has a practical explanation. If too many people die, there will simply be no one to work and earn money for them.
In the short term, many abroad see increased mobilization as a solution to the problem, but the way mobilization is happening in Ukraine only exacerbates this problem. Many Ukrainians are also further demoralized by Trump's statements, which are perceived as a renewal of friendship with russia and a betrayal of Ukraine. And this is a case where words also have an impact.
Mr Trump guarantees one thing if nothing else: tomorrow will be different. Perhaps, amid the chaos and ultimatums, he will deliver a ceasefire on reasonable terms. A month into his second term it is looking more likely that he won’t. If the war indeed continues, and russia continues to recruit as it has been, Ukraine’s mobilisation will have to get even tougher. “The tightening will continue,” says the senior Ukrainian official, “because no one has come up with a better solution.” That prospect risks cracking open divisions in an already exhausted nation, and spurring more violence against draft officers.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/02/26/ukraine-is-scrambling-to-find-fresh-fighters
Donald Trump says Ukraine's President Zelensky will sign a "very big agreement" in the US on Friday. The US and Ukraine have been discussing a deal to share Ukraine's mineral wealth, in return for past US aid and - possibly - future security guarantees. "We've been able to make a deal where we're going to get our money back, and we're going to get a lot of money in the future," Trump says. Earlier, Zelensky said there were no security guarantees yet in the mineral deal between Ukraine and the US. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cvg1402yyvet
Well, dozens of agreements on cooperation in the field of security have already been signed with the EU and various countries, but there is still no confidence in security...
https://suspilne.media/793625-ukraina-ta-slovenia-pidpisali-bezpekovu-ugodu/
https://www.unian.ua/world/ukrajina-pidpisala-bezpekovi-ugodi-z-yevrosoyuzom-litvoyu-i-estoniyeyu-12679581.html
https://suspilne.media/860081-ukraina-pidpisala-z-grecieu-bezpekovu-ugodu/
There are many unclear things about this deal. I doubt that we will see its full text and all appendices, including secret ones, any time soon. However, the choice between the use of these natural resources by russians, oligarchs and Western corporations, from the point of view of benefit for the ordinary Ukrainian, is obvious.
Why putin is finally negotiating, asked Politico https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-donald-trump-moscow-ukraine-gdp-finance-war-banks/ Moscow could soon struggle to finance the war, and fiscal breathing room may well be what the russian leader’s looking for.
We hear that russia will collapse very soon for the third year already, but it still does not happen. Ok, maybe it will happen this year.
Ukrainian military began shooting down russian Shahed strike drones with FPV drones. https://hromadske.ua/viyna/240428-my-pochaly-zbyvaty-shakhedy-fpv-dronamy-tse-daye-rezultaty-komanduvach-syl-bezpilotnykh-system?traffic_source=ukr.net
But still, every night they attack Ukraine in their hundreds.
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Wlad, some excellent points made there, and I agree with all of them. To further your one point about mobilization, it was of course always going to be the case that if the war remained a war of attrition, Ukraine could never win such a war. With 140 million Russians and 40 million Ukrainians, Russia can toss bodies into the abyss for far longer than Ukraine can. Plus, the Russians don't care at all about the sacrifice of their people, and (I hope) the Ukrainian leadership cares at least a little about their people.
With such a war of attrition, of course it is in Ukraine's interest that the war end sooner rather than later. I haven't met anyone over here who believes that more mobilization is going to save Ukraine. Maybe Trump can pull off a deal to stop this, maybe not - but it's worth a try. Minerals do nothing for Ukraine as long as they are in the ground, so I would think that any deal that gets them out of the ground would be good for the country, and would give the West minerals that today are all but controlled by the Chinese and Russians.
As usual, Trump should probably shut up more often and avoid further demoralizing Ukraine.
Speaking of rumors about Russia's imminent collapse, such wishful thinking reminds me of the speculations a couple of years ago that Putin was about to die of cancer. Unless his doppelganger is now in charge, I'd say he has pulled through fairly well. "Rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated." - Mark Twain
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…one thing about Trump is that he desperately wants to be viewed as a winner, and in order to be perceived as a winner, he has to prevent Russia from re-invading Ukraine after any peace deal is implemented.
Perhaps, but I see it differently. Being a winner in such things is a bit like being beautiful, it is in the eye of the beholder. Trump boasted numerous times that he would end the war rapidly and IMO is therefore desperate to do so even if it means accepting most or all of Putin’s terms.
As long as a couple of years pass before Putin invades again, Trump probably would claim that things are different than when he brokered peace and find excuses for why he isn’t then responsible. After all, strategic geopolitics is difficult… Putin needs several years to rearm anyway.
An agreement by Ukraine to share mineral wealth with the US (and Europe, it’s unclear), if it comes to pass, may simply be a “win” in the form of payment squeezed from Ukraine to justify to isolationists the assistance given, or it may be to give some additional incentive for the US and Europe to support and defend Ukraine in the future, or both.
However much depends on the nature of the agreement and whether the minerals are in fact recovered in useful quantity and quality. Reportedly the agreement may only be about sharing revenue or profit with the US, but not actually supplying the minerals themselves.
Not yet discussed publicly that I’ve seen is what will happen to Russian assets and interest frozen in western banks, even though these could be used toward reconstructing war damage in Ukraine. I expect them to be repatriated by the peace agreement, since to use them for Ukraine would require the agreement to recognize culpability of Russia.
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I have seen discussion in the European news about the frozen assets, to the effect that no matter what Trump and Putin decide about the frozen assets, the Europeans and Japanese may do what they wish, with them. That is, since they are not a party to the negotiations and will not therefore be bound by them.
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I have seen discussion in the European news about the frozen assets, to the effect that no matter what Trump and Putin decide about the frozen assets, the Europeans and Japanese may do what they wish, with them. That is, since they are not a party to the negotiations and will not therefore be bound by them.
Good. I hope that Trump would not try to force them to repatriate the funds by threatening with tariffs or something else.
Presumably assets held in the US would be subject to the peace agreement. Those are only $3 to $6 billion of the total of around $300 billion frozen in western nations, according to Perplexity and the references it used.
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That sounds about right as far as the funds held directly in the US. I think I would just tell the Russians that if they are going to keep the territories they've taken, we're going to keep the funds we've taken. Honestly, though, I don't think Russia cares that much about the $300 bn, that is a pittance compared to the energy sales they will be making to Europe once any peace deal is complete. They'll probably just use it as a bargaining chip. The Europeans can't wait to start getting cheap Russian energy again, despite what they say in public, and Russia can't wait to start making those sales again through Gazprom.
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If there were any doubts about the attitudes of JD Vance and Donald Trump toward Zelensky and Ukraine, they should be gone now with the televised meeting today at the White House. Of course, it was an error for Zelensky to try to summarize the larger history of the war as extending from Obama, to Trump, to Biden, and now Trump again (plus European leaders he mentioned) in order to correct Vance who tried to pin the entire thing on Biden.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LlZ0lr1x_B8
There are numerous press accounts including what Trump said on truth social afterward, for example the NYT
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/02/28/us/trump-news/trump-zelensky-ukraine-russia-putin
Putin is probably be opening champagne and toasting Trump.
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Undoubtedly the main event of the day is the Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky and JD Vance meeting, who clashed in an extraordinary shouting match at the White House, with Trump telling the Ukrainian president to "make a deal or we're out".
The US president tells his Ukrainian counterpart to be "thankful" and accuses him of "gambling with World War Three".
Zelensky says there should be "no compromises" with Vladimir putin - but Trump says Kyiv will have to make concessions to reach a peace deal with russia.
Afterwards, Zelensky was told to leave the White House and a planned news conference with the two presidents was abruptly cancelled.
"He can come back when he is ready for peace," Trump posted on his Truth Social platform.
The spilling over we saw in the Oval Office today reflected what's at stake for Zelensky and his country.
This is not just about minerals or money; it's about making sure three years of bloody fighting hasn't been for nothing. It’s about the future existence of Ukraine in the face of an existential war.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c625ex282zzt
Of course, it was an error for Zelensky to
He made many other mistakes earlier, which eventually led to what we have now. Recently, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kyrylo Budanov, who I consider one of the smartest and most knowledgeable people in Ukraine, gave an interesting interview. And in it, he again recalled that back in the fall of 2021, he warned Zelensky about how and when the russians were going to attack, but he was ignored.
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3964703-kirilo-budanov-nacalnik-golovnogo-upravlinna-rozvidki-minoboroni-generallejtenant.html
But some people, including me, doubt that this was not staged. Negotiations of this level are conducted according to protocol and are planned in advance. In fact, they are beneficial both for Zelensky, who can continue the war for some time while remaining in power, and for Trump, who can explain the impossibility of a quick peace that he promised by blaming Zelensky for this, and continuing to secretly give weapons to Ukraine. In this way, he continues to put pressure on putin, outwardly demonstrating good intentions.
The fact that some more Ukrainians will be killed and something destroyed does not matter to either one.
There is one more thing that confuses me. Trump says he and Zelensky are going to sign the US-proposed minerals deal with Ukraine during their joint news conference in the East Room of the White House. He describes the deal as "very fair".
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine published an order approving the agreement with the US on minerals, and determined who exactly should sign it from government officials.
Thus, the order dated February 26, 2025 No. 164-r “On the signing of the Bilateral Agreement on establishing the rules and conditions of the reconstruction investment fund” states:
“To approve the draft Bilateral Agreement on establishing the rules and conditions of the reconstruction investment fund.
To authorize the First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine - Minister of Economy Yulia Anatolyivna Svyrydenko or the Minister of Foreign Affairs Andriy Ivanovich Sybiga to sign the said Agreement.”
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/324322-kabmin-upolnomochil-yuliyu-sviridenko-ili-andreya-sibigu-na-podpisanie-soglasheniya-s-ssha-po-poleznym-iskopaemym-no-tekst-soglasheniya-vse-esche-derzhit-v-sekrete
Therefore, the question arises again whether Zelensky had the right to sign such an agreement?
I also remember another similar deal. U.S. President Donald Trump and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in 2017 backed having companies from the United States develop Afghanistan's reserves of rare earth minerals, despite formidable obstacles to industrial mining in the country. The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated the potential value of Afghanistan's minerals, including gold and gemstones as well as substances like lithium and rare earths vital in modern electronics, at as much as $1 trillion. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-afghanistan-minerals/trump-ghani-agree-us-can-help-develop-afghanistans-rare-earth-minerals-idUSKCN1BX06G/
Meanwhile, the procedure for traveling abroad has been further complicated for journalists, artists, and drivers who deliver humanitarian aid and previously had the opportunity to temporarily leave Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cd7eegz3rweo
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Ambush is the word that comes to mind rather than staged.
I expect US support of Ukraine to be withdrawn almost immediately. According to press reports, it’s already very low anyway.
I agree with analyses that conclude Trump doesn’t want to be confined by alliances or notions of morality in international relations. He prefers instead a return to pre-WW2 “big power” domination , today meaning the US, Russia and China. Might makes Right in his view.
Did anyone seriously expect that his damaged personality and ego would be content with navigating the little squabbles and the need for carefully considered actions involved in maintaining alliances around the world? It’s not in his nature. Nor is doing something without obvious payment. There is a reason, yet to come to light, that he is so eager to do Putin’s bidding.
In his previous term there were cabinet secretaries and military leaders who could advise him not to engage in ruinous actions, and delay and negotiate as needed when that advice wasn’t immediately heeded. But Trump learned from that experience and it’s not the case now.
Look at what he is doing domestically. His is illegally dismantling or crippling many parts of the government with ignorant (and in many cases illegal and fraudulent) mass firings of civil servants even in essential sectors, firing people for perceived revenge or nakedly political reasons, and withholding legally required funds and payments. He is dismissing experienced and capable men and women leaders throughout the government and replacing them with inexperienced, malleable sycophants.
This has notably applied also to the highest ranks of the US military. It’s obvious to me that Sec. Def. Hegseth is there to carry out whatever orders Trump gives without question including patently illegal ones. The Joint Chiefs are being replaced with pliable people who will not refuse the orders.
Everywhere one looks at Trumps actions they support his desire to have unchecked power. Most ominously he, Vance and others have already said that perhaps they don’t need to obey court orders, and Trump has made clear suggestions that perhaps he will stay in office for more than one term in violation of the constitution.
I am embarrassed and disgusted by the choice the voters made. I fear greatly for Ukraine.
The US and the world are quickly moving into extremely dangerous times and I fear that our institutions may not be strong enough.
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The States need a Ukrainian Maidan... :o
It would seem that is a pillar of democracy, a political leader of the world... But he is also not immune to crises.
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Ambush is the word that comes to mind rather than staged.
We can call it a planned ambush.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should apologize after his meeting with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office devolved into what Rubio described as a “fiasco,” while questioning whether the Ukrainian leader really wants peace in the country’s war with russia. “There was no need for him to go in there and become antagonistic,” he said.
Asked about comments by South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham – typically a strong supporter of Ukraine – after the meeting that Zelensky should consider resigning.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/28/politics/rubio-zelensky-apology-trump-cnntv/index.html
Did Zelensky really think that he could change anything with his personal presence? It is obvious that he was not welcome with an opinion different from the previously made proposal. It is also obvious that ignoring persistent recommendations to hold elections turned into a refusal to talk to him at all and an offer to resign. By putting personal interests above the interests of the country, Zelensky is confidently dragging Ukraine into the abyss. It would be strange if Trump did not take advantage of this opportunity and did not say that he was glad that everything happened in front of cameras and the whole world saw who he had to deal with. Thus, Zelensky allows Trump and putin to accuse him of obstructing the conclusion of a peace agreement.
I am embarrassed and disgusted by the choice the voters made.
You understand now those who did not vote for Zelensky, but who bore collective responsibility for the choice of the majority. They say that millions of flies can't be wrong. But I think this is a problem of bees, not flies.
Anyway, this is the price of democracy. If voters are not good enough, they lose democracy.
We will soon find out what the consequences will be for Ukraine.
On February 28, a Trump administration official said that all U.S. aid to Ukraine—including the final shipments of munitions and equipment authorized and paid for during the Biden administration—could be immediately canceled.
Also at issue is indirect U.S. support, which includes other types of military funding, intelligence sharing, training of Ukrainian soldiers and pilots, and hosting a call center that manages international aid at a U.S. military base in Germany. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/28/us/politics/trump-ukraine-weapons.html
Europe as always is very late in reacting, not to mention taking the initiative on its own continent. Again, a lot of words about support and little money in the budget of Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz9n5jq42pdo
Perhaps European leaders continue to believe that Ukrainians will continue to die in a war of attrition endlessly. It seems that only JD Vance saw a video from which it follows that not all Ukrainians agree to be cannon fodder.
The weather has changed again, it's warmer, but the sky is overcast and there was a little snow. I'm tired after a hard week at work and sleepy most of the day. Colin G3ZAF even pointed this out in our regular zoom meeting. However, I did have several QSO with Japan and China this morning.
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Bob, I don't really view it the same way as you, but I'm going to practice forebearance in not commenting on the politics because as I said earlier, I will not be a party to making this a forum about US politics.
The only thing I will say is that I am going to wait to see the end result of what Trump and Z are doing, and then compare it to the current situation where young Ukrainian men's bodies are being tossed endlessly into Russia's meat grinder with no apparent plan for ending the slaughter. If I weren't sitting a world away in safety, and instead, either my life or my son's life were being tossed in front of Russia's tanks, I would be willing to sacrifice a lot of territory, minerals, and pride, to save my son's life.
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I am going to wait to see the end result of what Trump and Z are doing, and then compare it to the current situation where young Ukrainian men's bodies are being tossed endlessly into Russia's meat grinder with no apparent plan for ending the slaughter. If I weren't sitting a world away in safety, and instead, either my life or my son's life were being tossed in front of Russia's tanks, I would be willing to sacrifice a lot of territory, minerals, and pride, to save my son's life.
I agree, and hope for the best outcome for Ukraine. I believe that there will be an agreement to end the war soon, despite the disastrous meeting, because it is in the interest of all parties - albeit to varying degrees. I remain extremely worried about what will happen to Ukraine two or three years hence after Russia rearms.
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I remain extremely worried about what will happen to Ukraine two or three years hence after Russia rearms.
I am very surprised when everyone expects russia to rearm in this time, and others do not. Europe has more than 500 million people and an economy hundreds of times larger than russia ...
Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer sought to wrestle control of negotiations over the russia-Ukraine war away from the US on Sunday, hosting dozens of European leaders and outlining a pathway towards peace on a pivotal day of diplomacy in London. Starmer told the BBC that Britain would work with France, and “possibly one or two others,” on crafting a plan to stop the fighting in Ukraine, and then “discuss that plan with the United States.” Yesterday Zelensky and Starmer signed an agreement to accelerate $2.8 billion worth of loans to Ukraine. The first tranche of funding is expected to be disbursed next week, according to the UK government. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/02/europe/ukraine-russia-zelensky-starmer-summit-intl/index.html
Starmer says that any new deal to support Ukraine must be backed by strength, and that every nation must contribute in the best way it can, by all taking responsibility and stepping up their own share.
The prime minister says leaders at the summit agreed four important steps:
- To keep military aid flowing into Ukraine while the war is ongoing, and increase economic pressure on russia
- Any lasting peace must ensure Ukraine's sovereignty and security, and Ukraine must be at the table for any peace talks
- In the event of a peace deal, European leaders will aim to deter any future invasion by russia into Ukraine
- There would be a "coalition of the willing" to defend Ukraine and guarantee peace in the country
www.bbc.com/news/live/cn5220x56pqt?post=asset%3Adcc3ead2-34ff-40e8-b8f2-18f6da7a8617#post
Starmer also announces that the UK government will allow Ukraine to use £1.6bn of UK export finance to buy more than five thousand air defence missiles. He says these will be made in Belfast, creating jobs in the UK's defence sector. He says the goal is to put Ukraine in the strongest position so they can negotiate from a position of strength.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn5220x56pqt?post=asset%3A6b7eb6de-4ad2-4879-8394-a02362e409ca#post
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed a declaration to accelerate the provision of military aid to Israel worth about $4 billion. https://www.state.gov/military-assistance-to-israel/
Nuclear weapons would help Ukraine resist russian aggression. After the failed talks between the presidents of Ukraine and the United States in Washington on February 28, which ended in conflict and Trump's accusations against Zelensky that he did not want peace, Ukrainians began to raise money for a "nuclear weapon".
The fundraising for the production of nuclear weapons for Ukraine, at the request of Ukrainians, was opened by the co-founder of Monobank (the largest virtual bank in Ukraine) Oleg Horokhovsky at about 1 a.m. on March 1. In the first half hour of the collection alone, Ukrainians raised 2 million hryvnias. https://news.telegraf.com.ua/ukr/ukraina/2025-03-01/5900140-ukraintsy-nachali-sobirat-dengi-na-yaderku-posle-ssory-zelenskogo-i-trampa-skolko-millionov-uzhe-est
He later explained that he didn't mean it. https://news.telegraf.com.ua/ukr/ukraina/2025-03-02/5900245-zbir-na-yaderku-viyavivsya-zhartom-ukraintsi-obureni?traffic_source=ukr.net
Such a joke could lead to Ukrainians stopping donating to real volunteers altogether...
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Wlad, what metric did you use you to compare the Russian economy to that of Europe? Two references I checked using GDP as the metric indicated that the European economy is about 10 times that of Russia, not hundreds of times.
It seems good news that Starmer and some other European nations have said they will provide money and weapons to Ukraine, especially since it appears at the moment that Trump is unlikely to do so.
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Wlad, what metric did you use you to compare the Russian economy to that of Europe? Two references I checked using GDP as the metric indicated that the European economy is about 10 times that of Russia, not hundreds of times.
It seems good news that Starmer and some other European nations have said they will provide money and weapons to Ukraine, especially since it appears at the moment that Trump is unlikely to do so.
When there is a war, it matters how many planes, cars and weapons your economy can produce.
In December 2024, it was reported that the total aircraft delivery in the year for Airbus has reached 643 units, with 84 planes delivered in November 2024 alone. Subsequently in January 2025, it was reported that Airbus have successfully delivered 766 aircraft to its customers out of 878 orders in the entire 2024 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus
Over the past three years, russia has produced seven Superjet 100 aircrafts. https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cn8g94x4d55o
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President Donald Trump ordered a pause to all US military aid to Ukraine, turning up the heat on Volodymyr Zelensky days after an Oval Office blowup with the Ukrainian president left support from his country’s most important ally in doubt.
The US is holding up all pending military assistance until Trump determines Ukraine’s leaders demonstrate a good-faith commitment to peace, according to a senior Defense Department official, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. It will also review the aid to make sure it’s contributing to a solution to the conflict.
The impact was felt immediately along the Polish border with Ukraine at a key aiport, one that serves as a transit hub for the transport of weapons and medical supplies.
“This of course is putting Ukraine and Poland in a more difficult situation,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in a statement. “But we have to cope with this situation. So there is no point in being offended by reality here.”
The order applies to all US military equipment not currently in Ukraine, including weapons in transit on aircraft and ships or waiting in transit areas in Poland. While the extent of the affected weapons isn’t immediately known, Trump had inherited from former President Joe Biden the authority to deliver $3.85 billion in weapons from US stockpiles.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-03/trump-pauses-military-aid-to-ukraine-after-clash-with-zelenskiy
The freeze in American aid poses a severe strategic problem for Ukraine, which has become reliant on military and economic support from its Western partners as it tries to repel russia's three-year-old invasion and stave off President Vladimir putin's push for a peace deal beneficial to Moscow. Experts say Ukraine and its European partners now produce most of the weaponry destined for the battlefield. But there are crucial American systems that Kyiv will struggle to replace - first of all, air defense systems, including Patriot.
In his first comments following Trump's announcement, Zelensky - while not commenting directly on the aid pause - said Ukraine is ready to come back to the table and sign the minerals deal "in any time and in any convenient format."
https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-europe-react-shocking-trump-aid-freeze/story?id=119416808
The prospect of confronting russia without American weapons, equipment and intelligence, which has long been unthinkable for Ukraine, seems to be becoming a reality. Ukraine is likely to exhaust its last stocks of American weapons and ammunition in “two to three months”.
This is stated in an article in the Financial Times, citing sources in Ukrainian intelligence.
“After that, it will be very difficult for us. It will not be a complete collapse, but we will be forced to retreat faster,” the source said.
The termination of US military aid will have major consequences for the Ukrainian army, even if European allies partially fill the shortage on the front with their weapons. Of particular importance for Ukraine, US support included intelligence sharing, which, according to reports, has not yet been stopped.
https://www.ft.com/content/b4393738-c7da-47ca-82db-99c2c052afec
At a closed session of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, a negative scenario regarding the possible suspension of military aid from the United States to Ukraine was considered.
This was stated by People's Deputy, member of the Rada Defense Committee Fedor Venislavsky in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
According to Venislavsky, Ukraine has a margin of safety for about six months even without systematic support from the United States. However, the situation will become significantly more complicated, so work is currently underway to find alternative sources of supply of critically important weapons. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/venislavskiy-pro-prizupinennya-dopomogi-vid-ssha-yakiy-zapas-micnosti-lishivsya-v-ukrayini-ta-scho-robiti-dali-2779689.html
US Vice President J.D. Vance said that the best way to protect Ukraine from russia is to guarantee US financial interest in Ukraine's future, the Guardian writes. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/04/jd-vance-hannity-interview-fox-trump-zelenskyy-ukraine-military-aid
The basic law of business: "protect your investment" had a good chance of being implemented.
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In Ukraine, there have been many jokes recently about news that people are advised not to read.
Trump’s cut to Ukrainian military aid could leave millions of civilians exposed to russian ballistic missiles https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/05/world/trump-cut-ukrainian-aid-patriot-missiles-intl/index.html
The US has stopped sharing all intelligence with Kyiv, a Ukrainian source has told Sky News - https://news.sky.com/story/us-stops-sharing-all-intelligence-with-ukraine-source-tells-sky-news-13322070
By stopping the transfer of intelligence, the US has effectively disabled the HIMARS MLRS for Ukrainians, The Economist journalist Oliver Carroll said on the social network X - https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1897340316942000271?t=mm_SNmqDzgotKFQWgFUQLg
The US has suspended operations and planning for offensive cyber operations against russia, a senior US official told CNN - https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-administration-zelensky-news-03-02-25#cm7s95k0g000l3b6mkuvrclbo
The mysterious radio station UVB-76, also known as "doomsday radio" and "buzzer", has broadcast a record number of messages after russia and the United States held talks in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, The Moscow Times reports https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/30694
After Zelensky's failed meeting with Trump, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine unexpectedly issued a statement published on its website:
On behalf of the Ukrainian people, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine expresses its profound gratitude to President Donald Trump, the United States Congress, and the American people for their firm and consistent support of Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, as well as for the security assistance packages provided to Ukraine, which have helped stabilize the situation on the frontline. https://www.rada.gov.ua/en/news/News/top_news/259373.html
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This is no longer about how to move past a bad meeting and sign an agreement. It’s about how much Zelensky and the people of Ukraine collectively must be punished on the altar of Trump’s ego and how much they must prostrate themselves at his feet in apology before he relents.
Trump is a marvelous useful idiot for Russia, assuming he isn’t actually a Kremlin asset.
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I've finally caught up with the reading here. Several days ago when I watched Starmer's "coalition of the willing" speech, I found it to be very confusing and contradictory in some respects. The main contradiction is that, as everyone noted, he is trying to wrest negotiations away from the US and presenting his peace negotiations as Europe "going it alone." Which is exactly what many of us would like to see, Europe defending Europe. He said there will be British and European boots on the ground to defend a peace agreement - all good, so far... but then he adds "with strong US support," which undermines his entire message up to that point. So, it seems Starmer is engaging in the typical European doublespeak where they want to be in charge and have the respect of nations that can hold their own, but then rely on a country that is an ocean away if they get themselves into trouble. Of course he was very vague about what "strong US support" means, but if it means Americans on the ground or in the air, that probably isn't going to happen.
I think Starmer is aware that if UK troops are in Ukraine and are attacked by Russia, that would not trigger Article 5. So, perhaps he's fishing for a reaction from Washington on that contingency. I'm not sure.
I had a visit with my brother and his wife (whose family is from Ukraine, and some of them died in Siberian prison camps after the war) and we were discussing how they all had said that the Russians are never, ever, to be believed. Some things never change.
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This is no longer about how to move past a bad meeting and sign an agreement. It’s about how much Zelensky and the people of Ukraine collectively must be punished on the altar of Trump’s ego and how much they must prostrate themselves at his feet in apology before he relents.
Trump is a marvelous useful idiot for Russia, assuming he isn’t actually a Kremlin asset.
I think that Trump continues the same US policy towards russia. And if Biden weakened russia, then Trump's task now is to establish control over it. And no one will take into account Ukraine's interests in this. As for the meeting, everything that happened there was a consequence, and not a cause.
Diplomacy in Ukraine is something very original. Ukraine's UK ambassador Valerii Zaluzhny at Chatham House in London said "Because we see, it's not just the axis of evil and russia trying to revise the world order – but the US is finally destroying this order." https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-trump-zelenskyy-putin-russia-moscow-live-sky-news-latest-12541713?postid=9225936#liveblog-body
The US is “destroying” the current world order, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom has said, in unusually blunt comments that come just as Ukraine is trying to patch up ties with the US after the disastrous White House meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump, writes CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/06/europe/us-world-order-ukraine-zaluzhnyi-intl/index.html
In both cases it doesn't matter what happens or what you really think, what matters is what consequences it will have for your country. I don’t think anything will improve the already poor relations between the US and Ukraine.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an interview: Well, I think an important thing to understand about last Friday is not last Friday. It’s everything that led up to it. It’s been very clear from the beginning that President Trump views this as a protracted, stalemated conflict. And frankly, it’s a proxy war between nuclear powers – the United States, helping Ukraine, and russia – and it needs to come to an end. And no one has any idea or any plan to bring it to an end. The plan of the Ukrainians up to now and their allies on Capitol Hill and the people you talk to in other countries is let’s just keep giving them as much as they need for as long as it takes. That’s not a strategy. https://www.state.gov/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-with-sean-hannity-of-fox-news/
Ukraine’s troops dying because US cut aid, say soldiers on front line. Morale is ‘dangerously low’ on the battlefield and the fighting has become ferocious, warn combat medics.
Ukrainian soldiers are dying because of Donald Trump’s decision to end military aid to Ukraine, front-line troops have told The Telegraph. Soldiers revealed how they were feeling the pressure of dwindling American supplies and the looming summer months, when battles usually become more ferocious, and fear they have lost any initiative.
But their view on the war has become even more pessimistic following President Trump’s announcement on Wednesday that the US would cease to provide intelligence to Ukraine, leaving morale dangerously low.
“We are not the ones advancing over the last few months,” said combat medic Slava, 27, speaking from a village on the border between the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions.
“It’s sad to say, but we don’t have initiative on the battlefield any more.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/03/05/ukraines-troops-dying-over-us-aid-cut-off-say-soldiers/
Belgium has postponed the delivery of F16 fighter jets to Ukraine until 2026. However, spare parts may be provided as early as this year, Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever told reporters in Brussels. https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/liveblog/koning-filip-ontvangt-president-zelensky-op-het-paleis-we-gaan~1741235439479/
Europe's arms firms are ready and willing to step up to fill a defence gap left by U.S. President Donald Trump's pause on military aid for Ukraine, but getting there will take time and depend on how fast political pledges turn into contracts.
Europeans are racing to boost military spending, with European Union leaders set to discuss a proposal to mobilise up to 800 billion euros ($840 billion) at an emergency defence summit on Thursday.
The region's defence firms - which saw a major stock rally on Monday on prospects for more spending - are bullish that they can ramp up production.
But they warned delivery times could stretch into years and said expanding production would depend on governments backing their pledges with spending and fresh contracts.
"Does Europe have the necessary technology to produce the full spectrum of defence equipment that it needs? The answer is yes," Thales CEO Patrice Caine told reporters as the French firm's share hit a record high after forecast-beating earnings.
"It is more a question for buyers, governments and armies... When the contracts come we will be ready, but there is no point in being ready too far in advance." https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/thales-ceo-says-european-defence-capacity-tied-orders-2025-03-04/
Four senior members of Donald Trump’s entourage have held secret discussions with some of Kyiv’s top political opponents to Volodymyr Zelensky, just as Washington aligns with Moscow in seeking to lever the Ukrainian president out of his job.
The senior Trump allies held talks with Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, a remorselessly ambitious former prime minister, and senior members of the party of Petro Poroshenko, Zelensky’s immediate predecessor as president, according to three Ukrainian parliamentarians and a U.S. Republican foreign policy expert. https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-allies-secret-talks-volodymyr-zelenskyy-opposition-ukraine-elections-yulia-tymoshenko-petro-poroshenko/
People's Deputies Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko stated that they are not discussing the issue of the upcoming elections with their American partners, as Politico reported.
According to him, his team is working with American partners publicly and transparently and even suggested that the Ukrainian authorities coordinate these meetings. The purpose of such cooperation is, they say, to maintain bipartisan support.
Talks with US representatives in such cases concern the supply of weapons, intelligence, sanctions against russia, financial support, etc. At the same time, Poroshenko assures that his team is against elections during the war. Instead, they should take place only after a ceasefire and the signing of a peace agreement with security guarantees for Ukraine. https://hromadske.ua/personaliyi/240924-poroshenko-poiasnyv-iaki-rozmovy-vede-z-administratsiyeiu-ssha-kaze-pro-vybory-ne-ydetsia?traffic_source=ukr.net
Of course we will believe it.
The threat of a prolonged war in Ukraine without military backing from the United States is leading European Union politicians to contemplate the emergence of a fresh wave of huge numbers of refugees. https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-threats-prompt-eu-to-plan-for-fresh-ukraine-refugee-wave/
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Today I woke up very early from a severe pain in my leg, which was cramping. This is the second time this year and probably next time I need to see a doctor. I just lay in bed for a couple of hours waiting for the pain to subside and I could get up. Even getting to the toilet was a difficult task and I kept thinking that it would be better to stay home today. I have always listened to my intuition, but recently it has become a vital necessity. So I stayed home, as did half of my office sick with the flu. But this did not save us from a large amount of work. It is good that our working tools are only computers and phones, although our boss insists that everyone work in the office.
I did not leave conflicting feelings when during the day I watched from the window how manhunters hunted down some poor man right on the street. They use private cars, which they use to cut someone off on the street or chase until the person collapses from fatigue, after which they put him in a car and take him to the mobilization center. They say they don't touch people with small children, but your dog will probably have to go home alone.
I've only seen old movies about Nazi Germany and stalinist russia where people were grabbed on the streets and taken away in cars. Usually they never came back...
Looking at this everyday tragedy, I thanked God for the sign and I wondered how many more people would have to die and for what?
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I totally agree, Wlad - "how many more will have to die and for what?" I think a poll taken in the trenches would be pretty overwhelming for finding some compromise.
I chuckled at your comment about future security assurances: "Of course we will believe it." No one, no one, no one will blame Ukraine for not believing it after the Budapest memorandum. I have heard Bill Clinton say that he regrets pressuring Ukraine to give up its nukes, but I have never heard Obama or anyone in Europe say that they regretted not stepping in during the Crimea annexation.
The grabbing people off the streets reminded me of my sister in law's stories yesterday about Stalin plucking her grandfathers (who were citizens of Ukraine) out of their homes, without trial and never to be seen again.
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My leg still hurt today, but I can walk with a limp, so I went to the office. Many people are sick with the flu and I have to catch one thing or another, compensating for the lack of people.
In the morning, a message came that the air raid alarm had been cancelled, which had been going on almost all night, but I heard nothing. However, not everything was quiet.
On the night of March 7, russia launched a massive missile strike across Ukraine. Missiles from Tu-95MS and Kalibr bombers from the Black Sea attacked almost all regions of Ukraine, with strikes reported even in Ivano-Frankivsk region and Ternopil in the west of the country.
According to the Ukrainian military, the main target of the combined strike was the gas industry.
During the night, russia launched 67 missiles and 194 drones, the Ukrainian Air Force said. The attack involved Kh-101/Kh-55SM and Kalibr cruise missiles, Iskander M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, Kh-59/69 guided aircraft missiles, as well as strike drones and drone simulators.
The Ukrainian military emphasizes that for the first time, French Mirage-2000 fighters, which entered the Armed Forces of Ukraine's service last month, participated in repelling the attack, but the effectiveness of air defense is decreasing and almost half of the missiles and drones are already reaching their targets. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ckg8y6k4d9go
A number of Ukrainian media outlets, military and military intelligence agencies reported that the russians managed to advance in Kursk to the important Sumy-Sudzha supply route from the east and put Ukrainian troops on russian territory at risk of encirclement. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cd653y7pjwqo
Aerospace company Maxar Technologies has disabled access to its satellite images for Ukraine.
"The official justification that users received from the Maxar administration was "upon an administrative request." In fact, the shutdown was a consequence of the US government's ban on providing intelligence data to Ukraine. https://censor.net/ru/n3539783
The Trump administration’s special envoy to Ukraine and russia Keith Kellogg said Thursday that Ukraine “brought it on themselves” in regard to the cutoff of intelligence sharing from the US. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/06/politics/kellogg-trump-ukraine-envoy-intelligence-pause/index.html
Donald Trump says he's finding it "more difficult" to deal with Ukraine, in remarks delivered to reporters in the Oval Office. It comes after he said he was "strongly considering" large-scale sanctions and tariffs on russia until a peace deal was reached.
At this time, Zelensky continues to do what he does best - travel around the world and ask for money. True, recently he has only been welcomed in Europe, and not all of it, and instead of money, he increasingly receives support only in words.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg70jylp32gt
During a speech at the European Council meeting in Brussels, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky announced the resumption of cooperation with the United States and a quick meeting in Saudi Arabia.
Europe seems to be starting to wake up and plans to allocate 800 billion euros for rearmament.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cm2jvv6djqmo
US President Donald Trump said he was considering new sanctions and tariffs against russia after a wave of overnight missile strikes on Ukraine. Trump also appealed to russia and Ukraine: "Sit down at the table right now, before it's too late. Thank you!!!" https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c07zvn3285vo
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I totally agree, Wlad - "how many more will have to die and for what?" I think a poll taken in the trenches would be pretty overwhelming for finding some compromise.
I chuckled at your comment about future security assurances: "Of course we will believe it." No one, no one, no one will blame Ukraine for not believing it after the Budapest memorandum. I have heard Bill Clinton say that he regrets pressuring Ukraine to give up its nukes, but I have never heard Obama or anyone in Europe say that they regretted not stepping in during the Crimea annexation.
The grabbing people off the streets reminded me of my sister in law's stories yesterday about Stalin plucking her grandfathers (who were citizens of Ukraine) out of their homes, without trial and never to be seen again.
Today I heard the idea that in order to understand whether Ukraine is really against the end of the war, or only the authorities are against it, we can conduct a thought experiment. For the duration of the truce, martial law should be lifted, the borders opened, and people allowed to leave the Armed Forces of Ukraine at their own will. Most people understand what the result will be. It is also proposed to check whether this will be done during the truce.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China will continue to retaliate for the United States’ “arbitrary tariffs” and accused Washington of “meeting good with evil”.
Regarding the Trump administration’s policy of safeguarding U.S. interests above international cooperation, Wang said such an approach, if adopted by every country in the world, would result in the “law of the jungle.”
“Small and weak countries will get burnt first, and the international order and rules will be under severe shock,” Wang said. “Major countries should undertake their international obligations … and not seek to profit from and bully the weak.”
On the Ukraine war, Wang reiterated China’s stance of supporting conflict resolution through political negotiations. Wang said that in hindsight, the Ukraine conflict “could have been avoided.” https://apnews.com/article/china-congress-tariffs-trump-967edbb35667963f0daeb949ee5c863c
I came across a very interesting idea that the stereotypical view of China's role in this war is that it is helping russia in every way, although it could easily have ordered its junior partner to stop fighting. It is believed that Donald Trump is currently getting closer to Moscow precisely in order to break its tandem with Beijing. However, in the real world, everything is not so clear-cut. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c8j01408wyvo
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Your thought experiment is borne out by the country's policies, aren't they? For examples, a closed border and I'm also pretty sure that the man who you witnessed being chased down for mobilization would like to see something worked out by diplomacy.
Your quote by the Chinese spokesman Wang is ironic and typical of the doublethink that Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn spoke about under the Soviets: Wang believes that relationships between countries should be worked out peacefully, but cannot envision working things out peacefully with China's citizens. For them, it's either comply or go to prison.
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This was posted on today on r/CounterIntel_Foreign
No paywall:
https://archive.ph/2025.03.07-170055/https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/03/russia-ukraine-war-status/681963/
Comments?
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I was pleasantly surprised to see that “Made in Ukraine” is printed on the Blizzard Rustler 9 skis I purchased recently! According to internet sources the plant is in Mukachevo.
Blizzard is a long time Austrian ski manufacturer, presently owned by Tecnica Group of Italy.
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Your quote by the Chinese spokesman Wang is ironic and typical of the doublethink that Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn spoke about under the Soviets: Wang believes that relationships between countries should be worked out peacefully, but cannot envision working things out peacefully with China's citizens. For them, it's either comply or go to prison.
What the official representative said must be considered in the context of course.
I found it interesting what Alexander Gabuev said in the interview. You will not see information about China unless you specifically look for it. That is why I pay attention to such publications. I also understand that even if you know Chinese and live in China, much will still remain unknown to you. Nevertheless, I paid attention to the following statements about China:
The Chinese do not believe that they know everything better than anyone else, and that everyone around them should live like them. But China, in their view, is, of course, the strongest power on Earth. Or in other words: America dominates the Western Hemisphere, and China dominates the Eastern Hemisphere. In Asia, China is an absolute hegemon, there are no wars here, because everyone de facto recognizes China's suzerainty and respects Chinese interests.
And here we need to make a very important remark about how our cultures differ in their understanding of what a mutually beneficial agreement is. In the Western sense, "win-win" is when the proportion of this "win" between the parties to the agreement fluctuates somewhere around 50 to 50 or, let's say, 40 to 60. And in the Chinese view, "win-win" is any agreement in which each party fixes any gain.
That is, conventionally speaking, if we started a joint business, earned a dollar together, but you received one cent from the profit, and I received 99, then in the Chinese sense it is still a "win-win", because at least you earned something. And if there were no business, you would not earn anything.
The narrative of state television can be described as "Not everything is so clear-cut." That is, yes, there is a war, war is generally bad. Territorial integrity is violated - it is also not good. But, on the other hand, all this is, of course, a consequence of NATO expansion, American machinations, so russia can be understood. This is if we simplify it completely.
China supports russia economically and technologically, but says it does not do what the West does. After all, the West directly supplies Ukraine with weapons, shares intelligence with it, trains Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters, etc. China manipulates this, but the conflict in Ukraine for them is a proxy war between superpowers. So if in this situation russia is ready to provide oil, fertilizers, grain – its own and stolen Ukrainian – at a discount, then why not take advantage of this if we need it? Many countries in the world do this, and they do not condemn China for it. Even India, the largest democracy in the world, does less than China, but it is quite enough to keep russia afloat, at least in terms of supporting its exports.
China was absolutely convinced that there would be no war. Their main argument was that it was not in russia’s interest. After all, even if we imagine that russia would quickly seize Ukraine, it would result in some losses, the introduction of large-scale sanctions. This would mean a guerrilla war at least on part of the territory of Ukraine. This would lead to an increase in the US military presence in Europe, a possible expansion of NATO, and an increase in russia’s dependence on China. What is the point of this, even if russia succeeds?
It seemed to them that if they see this in China, then of course putin is not an idiot, and he sees it in the Kremlin too. But they were wrong. putin is obsessed with Ukraine and this makes him a bad partner, but stopping the war or, even more so, russia’s military defeat will lead to a change of power to someone pro-Western – this is a nightmare for China. That’s it, russia falls into the Western sphere of influence, China finds itself surrounded.
Therefore, they don’t care how the war ends, it is important for them that putin or someone like putin is in the Kremlin. Accordingly, they are ready to play on the verge of violating sanctions so that russia remains sufficiently combat-ready, so that it at least doesn’t lose, because this does not correspond to their interests. Although they believe that putin is an obsessed fanatic.
And the Chinese had a feeling - and quite rightly so - that America would deal with russia now, and then come after them with redoubled force. And why help them in this case? That's why the Chinese are behaving cynically, but as rationally as possible.
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Your thought experiment is borne out by the country's policies, aren't they? For examples, a closed border and I'm also pretty sure that the man who you witnessed being chased down for mobilization would like to see something worked out by diplomacy.
This is an interesting topic in general. De facto, some Ukrainians ended up in slavery, but is anything known about this abroad? However, I and many others consider forced labor and military service to be the most expensive and ineffective method. Corruption and disregard for the health and qualifications of those who are forcibly mobilized lead to the destruction of many specialists as cannon fodder, and old and sick people consume resources, but do not bring benefits. I do not know how things are in other companies, but in mine out of 10 people only three are men.
As for diplomacy, sometimes it seems to me that it does not exist at all in Ukraine. The public humiliation of the president in the USA, the ambassador in England who does not even know English, the ambassador in China who the Chinese do not want to meet...
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I was pleasantly surprised to see that “Made in Ukraine” is printed on the Blizzard Rustler 9 skis I purchased recently! According to internet sources the plant is in Mukachevo.
Blizzard is a long time Austrian ski manufacturer, presently owned by Tecnica Group of Italy.
Ukraine produced many good things, but in three years many businesses and professionals left the country. And russian shelling is not to blame for this. Businesses have proven able to protect and hide their production facilities from missiles and drones and find alternative energy sources, but there is no way to hide from taxes, corruption and kidnapping.
Last night there were drones and missiles again and it was loud in Kyiv. Air defense in Kyiv is still coping well, which cannot be said about other cities. This winter was warm again and we had virtually no interruptions in energy supplies, but nuclear power plants were operating at full capacity and will soon be taken out for repairs and maintenance.
he U.S. decision to suspend the flow of military intelligence to Ukraine this week has aided the russian advance along a critical part of the front, weakening the negotiating position of President Volodymyr Zelensky and killing many Ukrainian soldiers in recent days, according to five senior Western and Ukrainian officials and military officers familiar with the situation.
“As a result of this pause, there are hundreds of dead Ukrainians,” one of the officers told TIME in an interview on Friday in Kyiv, asking not to be named when discussing sensitive military operations. “The biggest problem is morale,” he added, as the armed forces of Ukraine are being left to fight without some of their best weapons systems, not as a result of russian attacks but American pull backs. “It’s really causing an advantage for the enemy on the front line.” https://time.com/7265679/satellites-front-failing-hundreds-dead-fallout-trump-ukraine-aid-pause/
The United States can’t just switch off the U.S.-designed Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters that are re-equipping the Ukrainian air force. But the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has halted U.S. aid to Ukraine, including vital support for the F-16s’ radar jammers.
That could deprive the Ukrainian air force of its most important aerial countermeasures at a critical moment in russia’s three-year wider war on Ukraine. But the Ukrainians aren’t powerless—and they still have allies. They could shift the burden of aerial jamming onto the Dassault Mirage 2000 fighters they’re getting from France. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/07/france-to-the-rescue-french-made-mirage-2000-jets-could-become-ukraines-most-important-aerial-radar-jammers/
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Clearly, there is a lot happening all at once. While I don't blame Trump for trying new things, some of them don't seem to be working, and I hope they either soon start to work, or that Trump will soon start to change direction. He has only those two choices.
He gave Putin some breathing room by suspending military aid and intelligence, perhaps hoping that Putin would react in a peaceful direction. Instead, Putin reacted in an aggressive direction, stepping up bombings (many will not be surprised at this of course, but perhaps it had to be tried?).
In my opinion it's time to start playing hardball with Russia again, and getting them to the negotiating table with a stick, rather than with a carrot or a peace gesture. While also not causing WW3. I don't think tougher sanctions that Trump is threatening will do the trick, especially with billions of dollars in Russian energy purchases still going on from the EU.
Only time will tell if and when Trump will realize this, but I suspect (hope) it won't take him very long. He has big character issues mostly related to ego, but I don't think he is stupid.
(Unrelated to Ukraine, why he started picking on Canada is also hard to understand and appears irrational. That's clearly backfiring on the US, and so he needs to make amends as soon as possible and try diplomacy, the thing he should have started with.)
Still, things are in flux not only because of a new Administration in Washington that has made some misjudgments, but due to a lot of factors. Wlad, I read your commentary on China with great interest, and it reminded me that geopolitics requires us to put ourselves in the shoes of the enemy, to understand their perspective. Most Americans cannot understand why anyone would view America as a potential attacker or aggressor. But, Russia and China do view us that way, and view NATO and our defense alliances with Australia, NZ, etc. as threats. Good reminder!
Bob, by sheer coincidence I happened to buy some ceramic tiles last week and discovered that they are also manufactured in Ukraine! Surprising.
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I don't think Trump is a fool, but his worldview may be very different from mine. But the strong can afford many things that the weak cannot, and the weak must show miracles of resourcefulness in order not to anger the strong and get what they want.
Perhaps Trump is deliberately showing favor to putin and giving too much "in advance" (is it really that much?) so that later he will have grounds to strike at russia, demonstrating to the whole world that he is fair, if russia continues to behave as it does now? I'm not sure that Trump misjudges russia's capabilities.
Zelensky has last chance to repair relations with US in Riyadh, the Times writes. https://www.thetimes.com/article/a52a61dc-bcef-461e-9b27-291f0dbef89d
But it seems to me that this is a very dangerous self-deception if Zelensky and those who stand behind him really do not understand that there is no person more toxic for Ukraine than Zelensky.
It looks like the German Bild also knows about this: The US does not plan to resume aid supplies to Ukraine until President Volodymyr Zelensky resigns. "Donald Trump is blackmailing Zelensky with weapons supplies, trying to force him to step down as president and hold elections in Ukraine" https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/ukraine-trumps-perfider-plan-waffen-erst-wenn-selenskyj-weg-ist-67cdbb11bc5cf75105f37540
I think the russians will drag out the peace talks as long as possible because the ideal situation for them is when Trump stops aiding Ukraine and Zelensky remains president. Why do they need someone more competent in this position? I also prefer when my opponent in court is represented by a stupid intern, not an experienced partner of a law firm.
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russia’s glide bombs were unstoppable – but Ukraine has made them useless, writes The Telegraph. Signal-jamming techniques seem to have given Ukrainian forces fresh impetus just as the US suspended military aid. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/03/10/russias-glide-bombs-unstoppable-ukraine-made-them-useless/
Of course, this statement is greatly exaggerated, but there is a certain result. But for Western high-precision projectiles and bombs the same rules apply.
Today, for the first time in many months, the russians launched an A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, most likely because Ukraine, without intelligence from the US, will not be able to shoot it down. Perhaps in the near future, russian missiles, which have also been absent for some time, will be flown en masse to Ukraine.
https://expres.online/podrobitsi/rosiya-pidnyala-u-povitrya-rozviduvalniy-litak-a-50-vpershe-za-ponad-pivroku
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Perhaps Trump is deliberately showing favor to putin and giving too much "in advance" (is it really that much?) so that later he will have grounds to strike at russia, demonstrating to the whole world that he is fair, if russia continues to behave as it does now? I'm not sure that Trump misjudges russia's capabilities.
That had occurred to me, as was implied in my last comment. Trump offers an olive branch, Putin responds like the Russian KGB agent that he is, then Trump uses Putin's reaction as a justification for clamping down on him. It's possible. ??
Zelensky and those who stand behind him really do not understand that there is no person more toxic for Ukraine than Zelensky.
It looks like the German Bild also knows about this: The US does not plan to resume aid supplies to Ukraine until President Volodymyr Zelensky resigns. "Donald Trump is blackmailing Zelensky with weapons supplies, trying to force him to step down as president and hold elections in Ukraine"
Zelensky was such a darling of the media for so long in the West, that most of them haven't adjusted to the new reality of his being a millstone around Ukraine's neck, due to his inflexibility and tendency to impudently demand things from those over whom he has no leverage. Not to mention his foolishly campaigning for Trump's opponent last fall.
As far as Trump trying to force Zelensky out: That's what Trump was trying to do by belittling and tariffing Justin Trudeau of Canada, and it has had the opposite effect, causing Canadians to rally around the Liberal party against a common enemy, Trump. So hopefully what Trump is doing with Ukraine will be better thought-out than what he did with Canada!
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This was posted on today on r/CounterIntel_Foreign
No paywall:
https://archive.ph/2025.03.07-170055/https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/03/russia-ukraine-war-status/681963/
Comments?
The russian economy may be as weak as it is, but russia is fighting with its own resources, and Ukraine is completely dependent on the support of the US and Europe. We are already seeing the results. By the time russia runs out of resources to continue the offensive and stops, Ukraine may already have ceased to exist.
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Zelensky was such a darling of the media for so long in the West, that most of them haven't adjusted to the new reality of his being a millstone around Ukraine's neck, due to his inflexibility and tendency to impudently demand things from those over whom he has no leverage. Not to mention his foolishly campaigning for Trump's opponent last fall.
As far as Trump trying to force Zelensky out: That's what Trump was trying to do by belittling and tariffing Justin Trudeau of Canada, and it has had the opposite effect, causing Canadians to rally around the Liberal party against a common enemy, Trump. So hopefully what Trump is doing with Ukraine will be better thought-out than what he did with Canada!
Among some part of the population of Ukraine there was indeed a short-term effect of consolidation with Zelensky, but what does it mean for the country? This is an internal and extremely weak resource. None of these people joined the army or made the economy stronger under the influence of these feelings.
Comparing Ukraine and Canada is also incorrect. Very different countries in very different conditions. Canada has a new prime minister - Mark Carney, who headed to the United States for a degree in economics at Harvard University, before pursuing a master’s degree and doctorate in economics from Oxford University.
His career was similarly globe-trotting. He spent 13 years working for Goldman Sachs, traveling between the firm’s offices in London, Tokyo, New York and Toronto, according to a profile from the Bank of Canada, which he joined in 2003.
By 2008, he was serving as governor of Canada’s central bank, stepping into the job as the world plunged into the Great Recession. During his campaign to lead the Liberal Party, Carney pointed to this time as evidence of his experience navigating crises, saying on his website he had helped protect jobs and stabilize the Canadian economy.
He did well enough that by the time he finished his five-year term, he was scooped up by the Bank of England to be its governor — the first non-British person to hold the position. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/10/business/mark-carney-canada-pm-profile-intl-hnk/index.html
I don't think this guy will do any harm to Canada compared to Trudeau. There are no people of this level in Ukraine at all.
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It could be a language issue but I was only comparing how Trump trying to humiliate Canada had backfired on him, and thinking his humiliation of Zelensky could do likewise. I agree there is no comparing Canada and Carney with Ukraine and Zelensky.
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The russian economy may be as weak as it is, but russia is fighting with its own resources, and Ukraine is completely dependent on the support of the US and Europe. We are already seeing the results. By the time russia runs out of resources to continue the offensive and stops, Ukraine may already have ceased to exist.
Agreed.
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That had occurred to me, as was implied in my last comment. Trump offers an olive branch, Putin responds like the Russian KGB agent that he is, then Trump uses Putin's reaction as a justification for clamping down on him. It's possible. ??
Looks like we were right!
The United States “will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine,” the US and Ukraine said Tuesday in a joint statement about their meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Kyiv also “expressed readiness to accept the US proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the russian Federation,” the statement said.
“The United States will communicate to russia that russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace,” it said.
The two sides also agreed to conclude a rare minerals deal “as soon as possible” to expand Ukraine’s economy and guarantee the country’s long-term security.
Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak, who is representing Ukraine at the talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, said Tuesday that “the meeting with the US team started very constructively.” “We are working to bring about a just and lasting peace,” he added. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/11/world/ukraine-us-talks-saudi-arabia-intl/index.html
The Americans not only showed another "victory" on the path to peace and threw the ball onto russia's court, but also managed to pull out of the shadows and show who really makes decisions in Ukraine.
Perhaps the Ukrainians discussed the terms of personal guarantees and whether they would be left with the stolen money, but we will find out about this much later.
For now, the situation remains uncertain, although rapidly developing.
russia said dozens of drones were launched at Moscow on Tuesday in what it said were “enemy” attacks, using its preferred euphemism for Ukraine, hours ahead of critical talks between US and Ukrainian officials. If confirmed, the attacks would represent one of the largest on Moscow since russia’s invasion of Ukraine. russian officials said one person was killed and three wounded in the Moscow region after at least 69 drones were destroyed while flying toward the city, according to state-run news agency TASS.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/11/europe/ukraine-moscow-drone-attack-intl-hnk/index.html
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, reported on the unprecedented scale of the drone attack on the Moscow region. According to him, these strikes create a certain context for the negotiations in Saudi Arabia and serve as a signal to the russian leadership. https://news.bigmir.net/ua/ukraine/10018752-v-snbo-rasskazali-kak-ataka-dronov-na-moskvu-svyazana-s-peregovorami-v-saudovskoj-aravii
Considering that this massive drone attack did not cause significant damage to russia, it seems to me that this only gives russia grounds to once again declare that Ukraine does not want peace, and not only did not cause panic among russians, but it allows propaganda to explain to russians why russia should continue to fight.
Moreover, the russians continue to develop their offensive and may soon liberate the Kursk region and seize some more Ukrainian territory, after which they may agree to peace on terms favorable to them.
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Welcome news indeed, especially that recent US military support is reportedly back on again. I hope a ceasefire is imminent followed by a negotiated peace.
However it isn’t clear to me why Putin would stop now while he is winning territory (slowly) on the battlefield, but we don’t know what has been offered by Trump to do so, and that could make all the difference.
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I definitely felt a lot better about yesterday's news, than I had at any time in the recent past!
It seems like Ukraine and Trump can now start to work in unison, at least somewhat. I am breathing a sigh of relief.
Somewhere along the way, Russia started referring to Ukrainians as merely "enemies" and no longer "nazis." Is that an improvement in relations, or only a signal that the ridiculous "nazis" claim was no longer working for them? I suspect the latter - these are Russians, after all.
It occurs to me that if a cease-fire actually occurs, the US and Europe had better be getting additional munitions into place on the Ukraine side during the pause, as we all know that Russia will be reloading on their side during the pause.
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Welcome news indeed, especially that recent US military support is reportedly back on again. I hope a ceasefire is imminent followed by a negotiated peace.
However it isn’t clear to me why Putin would stop now while he is winning territory (slowly) on the battlefield, but we don’t know what has been offered by Trump to do so, and that could make all the difference.
I completely agree.
Poland has resumed the supply of American weapons to Ukraine through the POLLOGHAB logistics hub in Jasionka. The transfer of military aid for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is again operating normally. This was announced by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland, Pawel Zalewski. https://x.com/ZalewskiPawel/status/1899591996706074772
I heard the opinion why putin might agree to a peace agreement. On the one hand, putin has not achieved his goals, but he knows how to think rationally. The situation for him now is such that continuing the war could drag it out a lot, and given that he is an old, sick man, he may not see it through to the end. And when he dies, those who come after him will rush to reconcile with the West and he will go down in history as a loser. But if it is stopped now, he will go down in history as a winner. Of course, not the way he wanted, but still not bad. No matter what, the russians got a lot - at least plus five million white Slavic population, a lot of territories with resources, a land route to the Crimea, they made the Sea of Azov inland, they got control over a large part of the Black Sea. Ukraine lost at least ten million people and a quarter of its territory, not to mention material losses.
Vladimir putin has visited russia's Kursk region for the first time since Ukraine's incursion across the border in August last year. More than 1,100 sq km of territory taken by Ukraine in the region has been recaptured by russia, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claims. putin orders the russian military to "fully liberate" the Kursk region in the near future, reports say. He also says the Ukrainian soldiers there will be treated as "terrorists" rather than prisoners of war.
The head of Ukraine's military, Oleksandr Syrsky, has indicated that some of its troops are withdrawing from russia's Kursk region.
It comes as the White House confirms Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is going to Moscow for talks on a US-proposed ceasefire plan backed by Ukraine. It was agreed on Tuesday after Ukrainian officials held talks with the US. Earlier today, Trump said a ceasefire deal "would be 80% of the way to getting this horrible blood bath [to end]" https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c51ypekv9xwt
As Europe makes defense the bloc’s No. 1 priority, it’s bumping up against its own bankers. Defense industry executives, politicians and senior bankers alike are now calling for an urgent revamp of regulations and internal processes to make it easier for banks to quickly channel funds into arms manufacturers and military contractors. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-09/eu-banks-hit-esg-roadblocks-hampering-defense-spending
In the context of the halt in arms supplies from the US and only promises from Europe, the complex and uncontrolled situation on the domestic market in Ukraine makes the situation even worse. For example, for the first almost full two months of this year, the Defense Procurement Agency did not conclude a single new contract for the supply of ammunition. https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2025/03/10/7502026/
Therefore, there is a really high probability that in the event of a ceasefire, russia will stockpile weapons and prepare to continue the war, while nothing will change in Ukraine.
Instead, the Verkhovna Rada is preparing to adopt a law on the use of batons, stun guns, water cannons, firearms and other means by the National Guard against violators during restoring and protecting public safety. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/325450-verkhovnaya-rada-gotovitsya-prinyat-zakon-o-primenenii-natsgvardiey-dubinok-elektroshokerov-vodometov-i-drugikh-sredstv-k-narushitelyam
According to the law, the National Guard of Ukraine is a military formation. However, Article 17 of the Constitution of Ukraine states that the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military formations cannot be used by anyone to restrict the rights and freedoms of citizens.
https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/876-18#Text
https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/254%D0%BA/96-%D0%B2%D1%80#Text
That is, the main enemy of the Ukrainian government remains its own population, not the russians, and the Constitution has long had the status of toilet paper. Thus, the Zelensky regime has long surpassed the Yanukovych regime, and the war will certainly end with Ukraine becoming part of russia, since it will not differ from it in anything except the color of the flag...
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Sadly I tend to agree with both of you that an actual end to the war is probably a long way off, and Wlad, there is definitely a danger of a postwar Ukraine becoming even more like Russia than it was before the war. Hopefully someone from outside Ukraine can root Z out of office and replace him with someone who has some respect for the Constitution and the courts. A fresh start is needed once peace is achieved, no matter how long it takes.
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Today putin gave a press conference at which he says fighting must end in Ukraine, but adds a ceasefire should lead to "enduring peace and remove underlying causes of this crisis". He says the idea of a ceasefire is "good and we absolutely support it but there are issues that we need to discuss". https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cgj5w6veqw6t?post=asset%3Acdec371a-03e2-4a23-babf-c38ea5ffbcc2#post
Neither "yes" nor "no" was the expected answer, but will Trump accept it?
Meanwhile, Poland, even as a member of NATO and having special relations with the United States and its military bases on its territory, a large and armed army with modern weapons, does not expect the whole world to save it in the event of russian aggression, but is preparing for mobilization, as Ukraine was supposed to do back in 2014. The plan announced by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to provide general military training for every Pole is part of the country's new defense strategy against the russian federation, in the event of a war with which it will be necessary to expand the armed forces many times in a short time.
It is about creating a ready reserve. And the basic military training itself is currently planned for a period of one month and only on a voluntary basis. And to support patriotism will be a monetary reward - the participant should receive 6,000 zlotys, approximately 1.4 thousand euros. https://defence24.pl/polityka-obronna/zbrojeniowe-inwestycje-przyspiesza-tusk-bedziemy-bezwzgledni
Saab and the Ukrainian defence company Radionix have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) regarding the intention to form a strategic collaboration relating to sensors and defence electronics, aiming to strengthen Ukraine’s defence capabilities. The collaboration aims to focus on areas within sensors and defence electronics development and maintenance across all domains, leveraging the strengths of both companies.
With its strong technology offer and proven track record of international collaboration, Radionix brings valuable know-how in areas such as radar and optical targeting equipment and is a central part of Ukraine’s defence industrial base. Saab will contribute with its solid defence industry experience and expertise in these technology areas.
“We look forward to this collaboration with Radionix, leveraging both companies’ expertise. This agreement underscores Saab’s strong commitment to supporting Ukraine’s defence capability and defence industry” says Anders Carp, Deputy CEO of Saab.
https://www.saab.com/newsroom/press-releases/2025/saab-and-radionix-sign-mou-for-sensors-and-defence-electronics
Well, about the funny thing. The Economist allegedly conducted a survey among a thousand people, which showed that more than seven in ten Ukrainians now say they approve of Mr Zelensky’s work. Eight in ten say he is still Ukraine’s legitimate president, and reject the idea of elections while fighting continues. Over seven in ten still trust him to lead negotiations. https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/03/12/is-zelensky-a-disliked-dictator-or-a-popular-hero
A joke immediately appeared that 80% of Ukrainians support Zelensky and are ready to fight until victory, and the remaining 20% live in Ukraine. Perhaps the survey was conducted among employees of the President's office, but for some reason there are no lines of people willing to fight in the mobilization centers.
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I must congratulate Ukrainians on their sense of humor in the face of obvious obfuscation and misinformation by the powers that be. I just about choked when I saw the punch line.
I don't know what to make of statements from Putin about needing more concessions to agree to a cease fire. All I can say is I'm not surprised and I hope we turn up the heat on him to make him more uncomfortable.
Poland asking for nuclear cover was interesting, but the US would be nuts to shoot off a nuke at Russia unless we were ourselves attacked with nukes.
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Poland is in NATO and thus the US “nuclear umbrella” covers Poland. NATO Article 5 can be read to imply a nuclear response to a nuclear first strike from Russia on a member state but it doesn’t explicitly require it.
Presently the US stores some nuclear bombs in NATO countries as part of the nuclear deterrent.
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Poland is in NATO and thus the US “nuclear umbrella” covers Poland. NATO Article 5 can be read to imply a nuclear response to a nuclear first strike from Russia on a member state but it doesn’t explicitly require it.
Presently the US stores some nuclear bombs in NATO countries as part of the nuclear deterrent.
Poles use every opportunity to make Poland stronger and this is the fundamental difference between Polish and Ukrainian politicians. I think that the fact that more and more Poles are selling real estate and moving to other countries away from russia is one of the reasons why Duda wants Poles to be able to feel safe in conditions when in Europe probably no one is confident in either NATO or the US.
It is a pity that no one in Europe and the US wants to eliminate russia as the cause of so many problems not only on the continent but also around the world. The US generally takes a separate position, intending to do business with russia. It is obvious that the world is at the beginning of the cycle of creating a new world order and strong countries are striving to take leading positions in this new world. Classic signs of decline in the form of huge debts, the risk of losing the status of a reserve currency, deterioration of education are obvious to the authorities and are forcing the US to look for ways to avoid a crisis. Perhaps this is the reason for the desire to obtain and use cryptocurrency as a possible next world reserve currency and to be able to use russia's natural resources. It would seem that where is Ukraine in all this? The point is that it is too insignificant for anyone to pay attention to it.
But generally nothing has changed at least since 1951, when this article about the Soviet Union was published in a Ukrainian magazine:
While the East does not hide that its goal is world revolution, which is now being carried out with the help of bayonets in the Far East, the West does not want to "annoy its former allies and confines itself to short-term broadcasts on the radio of the "Voice of America" about the love of the American people for russia. It seems to us that such broadcasts, although truthful, for the peoples behind the Iron Curtain, instead of attracting these peoples to themselves, repel them. With bitter irony, they become even more convinced of the West's powerlessness to liberate them from the tyranny of communist rule. The West cannot or does not want to raise a clear cry, a cry that would strengthen and invigorate the struggle that the peoples enslaved by Moscow are already waging. And in the event of war, if there is a call, no Moscow propaganda would be able to restrain the thirst for freedom and revenge of those peoples for Katyn, for Vinnytsia, for Siberia, for deportation, for the shooting of millions. All the peoples who are waiting for help from the West listen only to auditions where they are shown that they only need to change the nameplate of Soviet russia and everything will be fine. No! This will be a big mistake, which will cost a lot of blood and tears in the future war with the East. Because Klyavzewitz was right: “russia cannot be defeated by physical force from the outside”... Now the West has a great treasure. A treasure that it has acquired in people of all strata of the population from behind the Iron Curtain, and especially among the intellectual forces of Soviet citizens. But the West is needlessly wasting it on physical labor, instead of using their vast experience, knowledge of living conditions in the USSR, to refute the lying propaganda of the Soviets and to provide detailed information to the peoples of the free world. We can imagine how widely the Bolsheviks would have used such capabilities. It is completely incomprehensible to neglect one of the most powerful means of propaganda—films. Appropriate organization of this area from the angle of the struggle of ideas and life facts, by comparing the living conditions in the East and the West, would have yielded very positive results and would have contributed to the truthful information of the peoples of the world. The screen would have at its disposal real heroes and victims of the Bolshevik satanic regime. They would have come forward with ready-made scenarios of their tragic experiences. Such films would have to be translated into all languages, and it is possible that the Chinese and Koreans, and we think the communists of France and Italy, would have turned away with disgust from the insidious communist propaganda. We think that in the event of war, it is necessary to include representatives of the enslaved peoples in various areas in the propaganda apparatus in order to shake the mood of the Soviet army and the peoples of the USSR. Separate national liberation armies should also be organized.
In the end, we will say that the main weakness of Western propaganda is its defensive nature. In the liberation struggle, the Bolsheviks outdid us with their propaganda, and this contributed to their success. The Germans also lost the war without taking into account the power of propaganda. They did not raise the cries for the liberation of the peoples, and they turned against them. This is how the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, the Polish insurgents, and the peoples of Europe fought. In preparation for the upcoming war and the campaign to the East, attention should also be paid to the organization of propaganda, as an important weapon that operates both before the war and in the war itself.
https://ounuis.info/publications/476/propahanda-iak-okremyi-rid-zbroi.html
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Interesting article from 1951; although in my opinion it was quite naive of them to think that if the West only painted a picture more vividly and proactively of what life could be like, out from under the yoke of oppression, people would rise up and throw off tyrants, establish democracies, and so on. That idea starts to sound a lot like George W. Bush's idea of nation building in the Middle East, and we all know how that worked out.
I believe that the reason no one wants to eliminate Russia as a world troublemaker is because we know we don't have that power: Certainly not militarily (especially once nukes are accounted for), and probably not even through trade; that's what we tried with the Chinese Communist Party, and all it did was make them into a more powerful dictatorship with global ambitions. I can't imagine why it would work any better with Russia than it did with China?
As far as Poland and the American nuclear shield, no one disputes from a technical sense that Article 5 covers them already, but yet the Poles don't believe it would be acted upon by the US (or they wouldn't be asking to be covered, now), and neither do I. No American president in their right mind would shoot a nuke at Russian territory simply because Russia shot a nuke at eastern Europe. (That is, unless we had some sort of North American "Iron Dome" in place and had 100% confidence in its reliability). If any of us were actually sitting in the seat of any US president, rather than just sitting powerless at our keyboard, we wouldn't put the very existence of the US at risk for the sake of any eastern European country. We weren't even willing to risk putting fighter jets in the air to defend Ukraine in accordance with the Budapest Memorandum, for fear of provoking a nuclear response, and it wasn't an irrational position to take. The US won't shoot nukes at Russia unless Russia first shoots nukes at the US.
In my estimation, Europe had better start arming heavily, including nuclear, and stop relying on an illusion of being under the American nuclear umbrella - that only exists on paper.
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I wholeheartedly agree that it’s always been a big risk for one country to depend on another country to defend it. National interests and alliances shift over time. I also agree that European nations need to rapidly increase their own defenses.
Yet the NATO alliance, with the US as the key power, kept Russia from expanding its postwar empire for decades. Why did that deterrence work, and why does it seem to be crumbling now? Is it simply that the US no longer seems to be a reliable partner, or does it go much deeper? Is it partly a mirage projected by Russian propaganda and psychological operations to make us doubt each other and think we are far weaker than we are? If so, why are those so much more effective now than in the past?
There are many factors, and I have some thoughts about it, but these questions need to be answered by far more qualified people than me. If we in the West fail to understand this, then I fear we will blindly blunder into the next world war.
One thing seems certain: A nation that possesses deliverable nuclear weapons is much more secure from attack than those without them. It also seems certain that if many nations have them, we would all be less secure from an accidental or miscalculated use and a subsequent general nuclear war.
Does the first outweigh the second? Until recently the answer was no because proliferation was unquestionably a bad risk. It may no longer be so.
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In an interview with the BBC, Polish President Andrzej Duda spoke about peace in Ukraine, the deployment of American nuclear weapons on Polish territory, threats to security in Europe and Moscow's "imperial greed".
He expressed confidence that Donald Trump has a plan to bring russia to the negotiating table and is aware of the importance of Ukraine's interests.
The Polish president also explained his position on American nuclear weapons in Poland, noting that this could be a response to the deployment of russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Duda, who is the commander-in-chief of the rapidly developing Polish armed forces, believes that today's russia is no less aggressive than the former USSR.
He noted that the only way to ensure Europe's security is to increase its defense capabilities and recalled that it was thanks to significant defense spending that the West managed to win the Cold War "without firing a single shot." https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c5y05pnj17ro
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said military planning to protect a potential Ukraine ceasefire is moving to an "operational phase" after a virtual meeting with 29 other world leaders. In a speech after the video call, Sir Keir said "the world needs actions...not empty words and conditions".
In a statement, he said the "Kremlin's dithering and delay" over the ceasefire proposal and its continued attacks on Ukraine "run entirely counter to President putin's stated desire for peace".
Leaders agreed on Saturday that if putin refused an "immediate and unconditional ceasefire" they would need to "ratchet up pressure...to convince him to come to the negotiating table", Sir Keir said. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ymrz8d21yo
Bla-bla-bla...
Another sad news, especially for radio lovers. The US is cutting Voice of America and Radio Liberty - President Donald Trump has issued an order to reorganize the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM).
This agency deals with five major American media corporations broadcasting in 49 languages, including Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Voice of America, Radio Free Asia (RFA), and the Office of Broadcasting to Cuba.
These media are considered an important tool of US diplomacy, and the decision to cut them is called a betrayal of democracy and a "gift to America's enemies."
The United States founded Radio Liberty during the Cold War to wage an information war against the Soviet Union. This was in 1953. Radio Liberty broadcast uncensored news, music, and literature to countries where freedom of speech was under threat.
In 1954, the first broadcast of Radio Liberty's Ukrainian service was broadcast from Munich; at that time the radio station was called Radio Vyzvolennya.
In the USSR, Radio Liberty was perceived as one of the harshest and most radical critics of the regime, and efforts were made to jam its broadcasts.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cvg1l48q81do
I understand that in the age of the Internet, spending money on shortwave radio is considered wasteful by some in developed countries, but there are quite a large number of potential listeners of alternative information without censorship in their native language in russia or China using radio. At least Chinese radio in English and russian can be heard in any part of the world. And in the event of a large-scale attack on satellites or the Internet, radio may remain the only source of information in the whole world for a certain time.
President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and russia Keith Kellogg was excluded from high-level talks on ending the war after the Kremlin said it didn't want him there, a U.S. administration official and a russian official told NBC News. According to the official, russian dictator Vladimir putin considers Kellogg “too pro-Ukrainian.” https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-urkaine-war-kremlin-keith-kellogg-special-envoy-barred-talks-rcna195981
Asked about the US-backed proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, putin gave a long and convoluted answer during his Thursday news conference. Early on in his answer, Putin said “we agree with the proposal” – a quote that made headlines across the world. But he went on to make it clear that Moscow will not agree to an actual deal any time soon.
In his full response, putin effectively shut down the idea – demanding concessions from Kyiv, raising numerous questions and repeating the maximalist demands that russia has held since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. “We agree with the proposal to cease hostilities but we have to bear in mind that this ceasefire must be aimed at a long-lasting peace and it must look at the root causes of the crisis.” - putin
Trump himself commented positively on putin’s reaction to the ceasefire proposal, saying in an upbeat tone that it was “promising… but it wasn’t complete.” https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/14/europe/putin-ceasefire-analysis-intl/index.html
The issue of ending the war in Ukraine consists of a plan A and a plan B. Until the first issue is resolved, the transition to the second is impossible. This was stated by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CBS News reports.
"Plan A is to cease fire so that we can move to plan B, to the second phase - to bring everyone to the negotiating table, perhaps with the participation of mediators, to find a way to end this war on a solid basis, with respect for the interests of all parties. Nobody is saying that the second part will be easy, but we cannot even start it until we pass the first," Rubio said.
He noted that no one said that the second part would be easy. However, it will not be possible to start it until the first is passed. The Secretary of State emphasized that it is difficult to negotiate a strong end to the war while the sides are shooting at each other. That is why US President Donald Trump is seeking a ceasefire. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/marco-rubio-secretary-of-state-face-the-nation-transcript-03-16-2025/
President Donald Trump is likely to speak this week with his russian counterpart Vladimir putin as discussions intensify on brokering a ceasefire in Ukraine, Trump’s foreign envoy Steve Witkoff said today.
“I think the two presidents are going to have a really good and positive discussion this week,” Witkoff told Jake Tapper on CNN’s “State of the Union,” saying later he expected a ceasefire deal to be reached within weeks. https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-administration-presidency-03-16-2025#cm8blrioy00003b6nokus54zl
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Shutting down the VOA is indeed a reprehensible betrayal of democracy and weakening of American resolve to defend it, in my view. It gives another green light to authoritarians around the world.
VOA was not only doing shortwave broadcasting, it also provided a lot of streaming and social media. People are ingenious in finding ways around internet censorship.
This is the justification for shutting it down:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/03/the-voice-of-radical-america/
Not mentioned except in passing (“Hunters laptop”) is that the VOA had reported on issues during the response to Covid and other topics during the first Trump presidency that he thought were critical of him and I recall his vehemently criticizing them at the time.
The proper, mature solution to the alleged editorial issues is to address those directly, not to pull the plug on the entire operation.
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Apparently, someone is not interested in the existence of independent media. But even once serious media, apparently trying to match the level of consumers, increasingly, instead of checking sources and objectively assessing the situation, increasingly offer loud headlines and sensations. I don’t want to think that, for example, this article in Forbes was paid for by the russians.
On Feb. 25, an elite russian drone group—the Rubicon Center of Advanced Unmanned Systems—launched a devastating wave of attacks on the main supply line supporting the Ukrainian garrison in Sudzha, the center of the Ukrainian-held salient in western russia’s Kursk Oblast. Employing what analyst Andrew Perpetua described as “advanced drone tactics” including elaborate ambushes involving multiple explosive drones “striking the front, back and sides of a vehicle almost simultaneously,” Rubicon swiftly knocked out hundreds of Ukrainian vehicles. Starving for supplies and in danger of being cut off, the retreating Ukrainians moved quickly, apparently under the cover of darkness. Whatever heavy equipment they couldn’t take with them, they simply abandoned—effectively leaving them for the russians to seize. In all, the Ukrainians lost around 500 vehicles and other heavy equipment in Kursk. The russians lost around 600.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/13/the-things-they-left-behind-retreating-from-kursk-the-ukrainians-abandoned-some-of-their-best-weapons/
russian President Vladimir putin has called on Ukrainian troops in the russian region of Kursk to surrender, as diplomatic back-and-forth continues over a potential US-brokered ceasefire with Kyiv. At a meeting with members of russia’s security council on Friday, putin accused Ukrainian troops in the region of committing crimes against civilians, but acknowledged US President Donald Trump’s wish to spare the soldiers’ lives as russian forces retake the area and claimed surrendering soldiers’ lives would be guaranteed. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/14/europe/putin-kursk-ukrainian-troops-zelensky-intl/index.html
The Ukrainian military has indeed almost left the Kursk region, withdrawn from Sudzha and withdrew from most of the settlements that were under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine until recently, but the retreat was organized and the losses were much lower. As of Sunday, March 16, the Ukrainian military is occupying a strip of russian territory along the common border of the russian Federation and Ukraine to prevent the penetration of russians into the Sumy region of Ukraine. Unfortunately, another military adventure ended in vain. https://today.ua/477711-vyhod-ukrainskih-voennyh-iz-kurskoj-oblasti-vsu-ostavili-za-soboj-polosu-rossijskoj-territorii/
While the US government is cutting spending, the Ukrainian government has increased state funding for the national telethon "United News" by a quarter for 2025 compared to the previous year. Its budget now stands at $17.5 million. https://focus.ua/uk/ukraine/697897-finansuvannya-telemarafonu-v-ukrajini-zbilshilosya-do-738-mln-griven-na-rik?utm_source=ukrnet_news
I understand the government's desire to increase propaganda, but it seems that no one has believed it for a long time...
Strange events also occurred last week. First, a person associated with MP Oleksiy Honcharenko, an associate of former President Petro Poroshenko, was brazenly murdered https://24tv.ua/merezhi-pokazali-moment-vbivstva-aktivista-ganula-odesi-video_n2775623
And then Petro Poroshenko's lawyer Ilya Novikov stated that the Pecherskyi Court of Kyiv took into custody on bail of 400 million hryvnias the former deputy head of the State Security Department Vadym Chuchkovsky, who is allegedly being asked to testify against Poroshenko https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/03/15/7503070/
If in the first case everything is very ambiguous, information about the criminal activities of the murdered person was spread on social networks and the version that he was simply being retaliated against is being considered, then in the second case it really looks like an attempt to persecute Poroshenko. It seems that the elections are really not far off.
Today I had a headache and high blood pressure all day, but I was able to make about a dozen interesting QSO, including with the USA, Canada and even South Africa. I think all this is due to the fact that after almost +20C during the day last week, the temperature dropped to +5C.
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I wholeheartedly agree that it’s always been a big risk for one country to depend on another country to defend it. National interests and alliances shift over time. I also agree that European nations need to rapidly increase their own defenses.
Yet the NATO alliance, with the US as the key power, kept Russia from expanding its postwar empire for decades. Why did that deterrence work, and why does it seem to be crumbling now? Is it simply that the US no longer seems to be a reliable partner, or does it go much deeper? Is it partly a mirage projected by Russian propaganda and psychological operations to make us doubt each other and think we are far weaker than we are? If so, why are those so much more effective now than in the past?
There are many factors, and I have some thoughts about it, but these questions need to be answered by far more qualified people than me. If we in the West fail to understand this, then I fear we will blindly blunder into the next world war.
One thing seems certain: A nation that possesses deliverable nuclear weapons is much more secure from attack than those without them. It also seems certain that if many nations have them, we would all be less secure from an accidental or miscalculated use and a subsequent general nuclear war.
Does the first outweigh the second? Until recently the answer was no because proliferation was unquestionably a bad risk. It may no longer be so.
I can't disagree with any of that, my friend. Two things that have definitely shifted are: 1. Russia has exposed itself as a third-rate conventional military power via its largely-failed invasion of Ukraine (which greatly lessens or eliminates the need for NATO, which existed only to counter Russian conventional military power), and 2. It's clear that American governmental borrowing, spending, and looming "entitlements" commitments are unsustainable, and lots of "somethings" are going to need to be cut. I would guess that those two facts will figure large in the future of NATO and many other old-world-order sacred cows. How exactly it will come out is impossible to predict.
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I've been sad to see the entire shortwave radio world shut down little by little, the past few decades, so the VOA and Radio Liberty issue are no different in terms of my emotions. But, it isn't 1955 anymore, as I sometimes have to remind people who are angry that I no longer send QSL cards. Things change.
I view the American shortwave shutdown as just one more of those many "sacred cows" that is going to need to go and will make someone unhappy. We have unconsciously slouched to $36 trillion in national debt and $70 trillion (present value dollars) in social entitlements. Everyone wants to continue ignoring this inconvenient truth, but the longer we let it go, the bigger a problem it will become.
If the American radio services truly are indispensable to Europe, they can create their own Radio Service. But considering that the UK has cut BBC radio service pretty significantly in recent years, I see them making the same choice.
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What Trump wants to do is clear, but it is not clear whether he will be able to do it. The market is the ultimate arbiter of this sort of thing. Just ask Truss. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/17/business/liz-truss-markets-tariffs-trump-intl/index.html
As for the radio, it probably depends on priorities. I'm the only person in my office who doesn't drink coffee, but I was the first to approve the purchase of a new coffee machine. It's a small expense compared to everything else, but its impact on morale shouldn't be underestimated.
Winter has returned to Kyiv again. It has become colder and even snowed. There was another drone attack at night and even in Kyiv it was quite loud. Also, energy objects were damaged somewhere and electricity was cut off in some regions. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c3e4xzd8qq8t
Ukraine has a new 600-mile cruise missile, the Long Neptune, and has fired it at russia. The Long Neptune is a longer version of Ukraine’s 17-foot-long Neptune anti-ship cruise missile—the truck-launched weapon that sank the russian Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva in April 2022. Long Neptune, which is longer and holds more fuel than the 120-mile standard Neptune, has been in development for years.
The successful deployment of Long Neptune was apparently the March 14 strike on the oil refinery in Tuapse, in russia around 300 miles from the front line in Ukraine. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/15/ukraine-has-a-600-mile-cruise-missile/
Of course, this is great news, but unfortunately in war everything is decided by quantity. As this war shows, even hundreds of missiles a month are not capable of changing anything critically.
Donald Trump says he and Vladimir putin tomorrow will discuss "land", "power plants" and "dividing up certain assets" when they hold Ukraine peace talks. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/17/politics/trump-putin-meeting-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html
But I remember the words of General George S. Patton:
The difficulty in understanding the russian is that we do not take cognizance of the fact that he is not a European, but an Asiatic, and therefore thinks deviously. We can no more understand a russian than a Chinaman or a Japanese, and from what I have seen of them, I have no particular desire to understand them, except to ascertain how much lead or iron it takes to kill them. In addition to his other Asiatic characteristics, the russian has no regard for human life and is an all-out son of bitch, barbarian, and chronic drunk. They are a scurvy race and simply savages. We could beat hell out of them.
Let’s keep our boots polished, bayonets sharpened and present a picture of force and strength to these people [the Soviets]. This is the only language they understand and respect. If you fail to do this, then I would like to say to you that we have had a victory over the Germans and have disarmed them, but have lost the war.
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I recently knew about the decision of the Supreme Court of Ukraine, which rejected a man’s claim to oblige the military unit to dismiss him due to a violation of the procedure for his mobilization. The court agreed that he had been mobilized illegally, but concluded that the procedure for conscripting a person liable for military service during mobilization is irreversible, and the recognition of the conscription procedure as unlawful does not result in the restoration of the previous status of the person conscripted for military service by his/her release.
https://so.supreme.court.gov.ua/news/1138/protsedura-pryzovu-viiskovozoboviazanoho-na-viiskovu-sluzhbu-pid-chas-mobilizatsii-ie-nezvorotnoiu-a-vyznannia-protsedury-pryzovu-protypravnoiu-ne-sprychyniuie-vidnovlennia-poperednoho-stanovysh%D1%81ha-osoby-pryzvanoi-na-viiskovu-sluzhbu-shliakhom-ii-zvilnennia-%E2%80%93-kas-vs
In fact, courts exist to compensate for gaps in legislation and protect violated rights of people. But this is not about Ukraine.
The very idea that decisions about how others should serve and die are made by those who themselves will never, under any circumstances, end up at the front looks disgusting...
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Truly said, General Patton, truly said. Maybe the Neanderthals did not die out or interbreed with homo sapiens, maybe they simply traveled further east? lol
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I heard that Neanderthals were more civilized than Sapiens and this ultimately destroyed them.
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Another possibility!
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I've been sad to see the entire shortwave radio world shut down little by little, the past few decades, so the VOA and Radio Liberty issue are no different in terms of my emotions. But, it isn't 1955 anymore, as I sometimes have to remind people who are angry that I no longer send QSL cards. Things change.
I view the American shortwave shutdown as just one more of those many "sacred cows" that is going to need to go and will make someone unhappy. We have unconsciously slouched to $36 trillion in national debt and $70 trillion (present value dollars) in social entitlements. Everyone wants to continue ignoring this inconvenient truth, but the longer we let it go, the bigger a problem it will become.
If the American radio services truly are indispensable to Europe, they can create their own Radio Service. But considering that the UK has cut BBC radio service pretty significantly in recent years, I see them making the same choice.
Everyone realizes that shortwave is no longer effective or efficient for most government messaging except to target poor, remote areas of the world where a transistor radio is still important for news. As I said, there are also internet services and other ways to reach people.
The point is that we must continue to vigorously oppose Russian, Chinese, and other anti-US, anti-west propaganda around the world. The nearly complete shutdown of the US Agency for Global Media, of which VOA was a part, leaves the world to them without counter messaging.
I can only hope that out of this hasty undisciplined shutdown, something will emerge to carry on the mission.
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What Trump wants to do is clear, but it is not clear whether he will be able to do it. The market is the ultimate arbiter of this sort of thing. Just ask Truss. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/17/business/liz-truss-markets-tariffs-trump-intl/index.html
Yes this is a topic of discussion, and I think it’s a sound thesis because many people vote mostly according to one metric, the amount of money in their pocket and the cost of goods and services.
If Trump’s heedless descent into punishing trade wars with every major trading partner continues on the current path it will cause a large increase in inflation which is one of the reasons why Harris lost the election. Worse, it will also cause business activity to contract and the net result would be similar to what happened in the 1970’s: stagflation, and recession, and not only for the US.
The UK has a parliamentary system, but we have a presidential system, so while Truss was removed fairly rapidly, Trump is expected to be president until his term ends.
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Trump has for many years advocated tariffs, and he knows that he’s the smartest person in the room.
Our big boss reminds us at least once a month that we start making mistakes and losing as soon as we start thinking that we are smarter than others. But he's just a millionaire, not a billionaire, so he could be wrong)
The main news of the day was today's high-stakes call between President Donald Trump and russian President Vladimir putin, which lasted about two hours.
During the dialogue, the leaders of the United States and russia continued a detailed exchange of views on the situation around Ukraine, the russian propaganda news agency TASS writes, citing a Kremlin statement. https://t.me/tass_agency/306379
russian journalists report that the russian president supported the idea of the US president to mutually refrain from attacks on energy infrastructure with Ukraine. The Kremlin said that putin gave such an order to the military.
putin also announced a 175-for-175 prisoner exchange between the russian and Ukrainian sides on March 19. The russian president said that as a "gesture of goodwill" he would hand over 23 seriously wounded Ukrainian servicemen to Kyiv.
The White House said that President Donald Trump and russian President Vladimir putin have agreed that the process to reach a peace agreement between russia and Ukraine would begin with an energy infrastructure ceasefire.
"This conflict should never have started and should have been ended long ago with sincere and good faith peace efforts," the White House said in a readout of the call between the two leaders.
Trump and putin agreed that the movement to peace "will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East," the White House said. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trump-putin-russia-ukraine-call-zelenskyy-nato-ceasefire-zaporizhzhia-rcna196847
This is certainly good news, but we must remember that any truce is very unreliable for the weaker side. For example, another war dragged on longer than planned, and the ceasefire ended earlier than expected.
Gaza’s fragile ceasefire was shattered early Tuesday as Israel carried out what it described as “extensive strikes” on Hamas targets. After the ceasefire ended, far-right Israeli politician Itamar Ben Gvir said he would rejoin the government. Separately, several Arab nations accused Israel of violating the ceasefire. Israel’s attack has killed over 400 people and wounded hundreds more, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. It’s the deadliest day in Gaza since November 7, 2023. https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/gaza-israel-hamas-strikes-03-18-25/index.html
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has proposed deploying over 10,000 Western peacekeepers in Ukraine as part of an initiative presented during the "coalition of the willing" meeting. According to The Times, citing a senior British government source, Starmer secured support from "considerably more" countries than the initial three that had proposed sending ground troops. However, the bulk of the forces would likely come from the UK and France. https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/minehunters-and-10000-troops-what-the-coalition-of-the-willing-has-agreed-xdmm3pvmg
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We continue to enjoy the low-quality show put on by the authorities.
The Kyiv Court of Appeal closed the proceedings in the case of the attack on journalists of the "Schemes" program in the office of the chairman of the board of "Ukreximbank" Yevhen Metsger. As a result, the defendants: Yevhen Metsger, who is currently the chairman of the state-owned company "Ukrfinzhytlo", the director of the banking security department of "Ukreximbank" Ihor Telbizov, and the head of the internal security department of the state bank Oleh Osipov, who used physical force against the journalists on the orders of Metsger, were released from criminal liability.
It all started in October 2021, when an incident occurred that attracted significant attention from the public and the media community in Ukraine. During an interview with the Chairman of the Board of Ukreximbank, Yevhen Metzger, for the program "Schemes", journalists Kyrylo Ovsyanyi and cameraman Oleksandr Mazur were attacked by bank employees on Metzger's orders. The incident sparked outrage and raised questions about freedom of speech and the safety of journalists in Ukraine.
https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/tin-bankovoyi-chomu-yevgen-metsger-unyk-vidpovidalnosti-za-napad-na-zhurnalistiv
A video of a cyclist being hit by a car on the road is being circulated on social media today. The man who was hit fell, got up and left the scene of the accident, leaving his bicycle behind. Two people in military uniform got out of the car, pulled the broken bicycle out from under the wheels, and then drove in the direction the man had run. The Kharkiv Regional Mobilization Center admits that its employees hit the man, but claims that it was an accident. The outcome of the man’s pursuit is unknown. https://sud.ua/uk/news/video/325971-v-kharkovskom-ttsk-utverzhdayut-chto-sbili-velosipedista-sluchayno-a-zatem-khoteli-pomoch-video
Commanders on the battlefield have combat immunity for decisions made. This was stated by Fedir Venislavsky, a member of the parliamentary committee on national security, defense and intelligence, on Radio Liberty.
“At the beginning of the war, we adopted a law that provides for the so-called combat immunity. This is when military commanders and chiefs are not legally responsible for decisions made on the battlefield. Because if now we blame every military leader for some failures on the front, then there will be few who will be ready to give orders at all, and war inevitably involves losses among people, among equipment… Key decisions are made by the military,” Venislavsky explained.
He emphasized that war always involves losses, and if we blame every leader for failures, few will be ready to give orders. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/326033-komandiry-imeyut-boevoy-immunitet-v-otnoshenii-resheniy-na-pole-boya-fedor-venislavskiy
And then they wonder why there are no people willing to join the army and carry out such orders. Some believe that he was trying to justify the top military leadership, headed by the president, for all the mistakes they had made.
The Ministry of Culture and Strategic Communications of Ukraine has granted two Ukrainian musical groups, “Without Limits” and “Boombox”, the status of critical for the functioning of the economy and ensuring the life of the population in a special period. The relevant orders were published on the ministry’s website.
The document states that the rock bands meet the criteria of enterprises, institutions and organizations that are critical for the functioning of the economy and ensuring the life of the population in a special period, as well as critical for ensuring the needs of the Armed Forces and other military formations in a special period, and this status has been confirmed for them.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/326035-minkult-predostavil-gruppam-bumboks-i-bez-obmezhen-status-kriticheski-vazhnykh-predpriyatiy
This allows the members of these groups to travel abroad without obstacles. From the point of view of many ordinary Ukrainians, this looks very impudent and disgusting.
The Kyiv Defense Council, after consultations with the military, law enforcement officers, and the State Emergency Service, allowed ground public transport to continue moving in the event of an air raid warning being issued in the capital. This will really make life much easier for Kyiv residents, who were forced to stand by the bus in the cold and rain and wait for the air raid warning to end, while taxi prices increased dramatically at that time.https://www.dw.com/uk/u-kievi-gromadskij-transport-bilse-ne-zupinatimut-pid-cas-trivog/a-71961201#:~:text=%D0%A0%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B0%20%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B8%20%D0%9A%D0%B8%D1%94%D0%B2%D0%B0%20%D0%BF%D1%96%D1%81%D0%BB%D1%8F%20%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%86%D1%96%D0%B9,%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%B1%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B5%20%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%96%20%D0%B7%2021%20%D0%B1%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%BD%D1%8F.
This morning I stood there for half an hour thinking about this during the air raid alert when one of the downed drones fell near a school in one of the Kyiv districts and caught fire.
https://24tv.ua/kiyevi-dron-goriv-bilya-shkoli-pratsivniki-dsns-likviduvali-naslidki_n2778239
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There seems to be an epidemic of aborted justice for people in high places, and those with friends in high places.
Now that Radio Liberty will go silent, I hope there is another outlet that will have this important type of news.
Does the immunity for commanders include the military justice system? Here, commanders can face a court martial in the military justice system.
It might be time to learn to play rock and roll.
I suppose it’s a milestone of sorts that the regulation requiring public transport to be stopped during air raids is finally rescinded. That it took so long, and that so many brains had to be consulted, is truly remarkable.
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War always brings lots of injustices, sadly a fact of life.
Wlad, very sorry to hear about the treatment of journalists. Don't lose heart, as the US government, on several occasions, arrested and persecuted journalists during wartime. Notably, the worst was during the Wilson administration during WW1. But, we emerged from that and returned to democratic function. I hope Ukraine will do the same, although I recognize that the US is not Ukraine.
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War always brings lots of injustices, sadly a fact of life.
Wlad, very sorry to hear about the treatment of journalists. Don't lose heart, as the US government, on several occasions, arrested and persecuted journalists during wartime. Notably, the worst was during the Wilson administration during WW1. But, we emerged from that and returned to democratic function. I hope Ukraine will do the same, although I recognize that the US is not Ukraine.
Very true .
Interestingly the WW1 Wilson era was the first time that such free speech issues became prominent in the US and thus the need for courts to address them. It took several more decades for the Supreme Court to hone the interpretation of our constitution into the robust protection of speech we enjoy today.
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Interestingly the WW1 Wilson era was the first time that such free speech issues became prominent in the US and thus the need for courts to address them. It took several more decades for the Supreme Court to hone the interpretation of our constitution into the robust protection of speech we enjoy today.
100% agree. I hope Ukraine will also eventually grow into a republic of individual rights and responsibilities. I also hope that the rest of Europe will eventually allow true free speech even when it goes against popular opinion or the government's preferred narratives.
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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has proposed deploying over 10,000 Western peacekeepers in Ukraine as part of an initiative presented during the "coalition of the willing" meeting. According to The Times, citing a senior British government source, Starmer secured support from "considerably more" countries than the initial three that had proposed sending ground troops. However, the bulk of the forces would likely come from the UK and France.
Starmer's big talk of providing troops in Ukraine ended with something such as "of course with strong US backing" which basically negated everything he had said up to that point. He should have defined what that means, since US troops and air support have both been deemed to be"off the table" by both Trump and Biden. I took it to mean that the speech was just more European talk about providing military resources but not actually coming through with them.
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Does the immunity for commanders include the military justice system? Here, commanders can face a court martial in the military justice system.
In the Soviet Union, there was a separate justice system for the military, which was later abolished in Ukraine. Now they are thinking about restoring it. Critics believe that a closed system would be unfair. However, when was the army ever fair? Remember the book "Catch-22"?
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Wlad, very sorry to hear about the treatment of journalists. Don't lose heart, as the US government, on several occasions, arrested and persecuted journalists during wartime. Notably, the worst was during the Wilson administration during WW1. But, we emerged from that and returned to democratic function. I hope Ukraine will do the same, although I recognize that the US is not Ukraine.
This story happened before the russian attack in 2022.
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100% agree. I hope Ukraine will also eventually grow into a republic of individual rights and responsibilities. I also hope that the rest of Europe will eventually allow true free speech even when it goes against popular opinion or the government's preferred narratives.
So far, the opposite is happening. On March 19, the Parliamentary Committee on Legal Policy recommended that the Verkhovna Rada adopt a high-profile bill that could close court cases regarding mobilization and military registration, cases of servicemen, etc. in the Register of Court Decisions, since defense and national security bodies are parties to the case in these matters.
It is noteworthy that the committee decided to return to this bill after the resonance caused by the publication by the Supreme Court of a decision according to which the establishment of the illegality of mobilization does not lead to the discharge of an illegally mobilized person from military service. In addition, the media published details of a case in which a mobilized person was killed at a training ground, and then accused of drug use and declared a deserter.
The court will also have the right to additionally determine relevant information as not subject to disclosure if, in the court's opinion, this "may harm security." That is, the court itself will be able to decide which decisions should be excluded from public access. The question also arises as to who will verify the grounds for closing cases from the public.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/326127-deputaty-vernulis-k-rassmotreniyu-zakonoproekta-o-sokrytii-sudebnykh-del-otnositelno-mobilizatsii-ttsk-i-voennosluzhaschikh-ot-obschestvennosti-v-reestre-sudebnykh-resheniy
Also, the current legislation requires that when filing a cassation appeal, reference be made to other Supreme Court decisions in similar cases, which will obviously be impossible to do. So this will be a restriction on the right to justice. Although it doesn't matter, the Ukrainian will have one right more or less...
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Starmer's big talk of providing troops in Ukraine ended with something such as "of course with strong US backing" which basically negated everything he had said up to that point. He should have defined what that means, since US troops and air support have both been deemed to be"off the table" by both Trump and Biden. I took it to mean that the speech was just more European talk about providing military resources but not actually coming through with them.
British Special Forces have been put on standby to head to Ukraine as part of the UK’s peacekeeping mission as an agreement over a ceasefire edge closer, The i Paper can reveal.
A decision to put key troops on standby comes as Britain prepares to host military chiefs from a group of countries ready to support a ceasefire agreement with russia. The elite units could be deployed rapidly, gather intelligence and counter Russian 'greyzone' activity, say experts
https://inews.co.uk/news/special-forces-standby-ukraine-peacekeeping-3591375
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This night there was another massive drone attack on Ukraine. In Kyiv, a couple of dozen drones were also shot down and there was no damage. In other places, a hospital and other buildings were hit. https://www.unian.ua/war/u-nebi-nad-kiyevom-shahedi-novini-kiyeva-12949980.html
After Trump's phone call with putin, it became the main topic of discussion among journalists. In russia, it is being celebrated as a victory.
Judging by some of the headlines today in russia, Moscow believes that the latest telephone conversation between Presidents putin and Trump went well - certainly for the Kremlin.
"putin and Trump agreed to work together on Ukraine resolution," concludes Izvestia.
"Record-long Putin-Trump call," declares Komsomolskaya Pravda. The paper's website adds: "As things stand russia has scored a diplomatic victory here."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjevg23enggo
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump spoke over the phone today, with both leaders describing the hour-long call as "very good" and "positive". Zelensky also said after the "very substantive" conversation that he believes lasting peace could be achieved "this year". The White House provided further details about the call and said Zelensky thanked the US for its support - particularly for Javelin missiles. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/clynp1nldmxt?post=asset%3A6450b28f-ebc7-4f38-8f0a-4cadb293ed0b#post
Earlier today, Ukraine and russia swapped 175 prisoners of war each, with Zelensky describing it as "one of the largest" exchanges so far
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cy7x36d0g6eo
The White Paper on the future of EU defence, presented today by the European Commission, contains a separate chapter dedicated to Ukraine and envisages a significant increase in European assistance, including the supply of military equipment and at least 2 million pieces of ammunition per year. This was stated today in Brussels during a press conference to present the aforementioned White Paper, by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaia Kallas. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3972384-es-planue-postacati-v-ukrainu-ne-mens-ak-2-miljoni-boepripasiv-na-rik-kallas.html
This is good news, but very late. By the time Europe can produce sufficient weapons, Ukraine may finally run out of people willing to fight.
In December last year, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine requested the Venice Commission to provide an expert opinion (amicus curiae) on the issue of alternative (non-militarized) service in martial law.
The Venice Commission provided a detailed analysis of international standards governing this issue. The Commission referred to Article 9 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and Article 18 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). Both of these documents guarantee the right to freedom of thought, conscience and religion, which includes the right to conscientious objection to military service.
The Venice Commission considers that the very nature of conscientious objection implies that it cannot be fully excluded in time of war, albeit States have a limited margin of appreciation, especially in case of a general mobilisation. However, it appears to the Venice Commission that under no circumstances may a conscientious objector to military service be obliged to bear or use arms, even in self-defence of the country. https://www.coe.int/en/web/venice-commission/-/ukraine-amicus-curiae-brief-on-alternative-non-military-service
But the problem is not only that Ukrainian legislation does not provide for alternative service during martial law, but also that many people do not understand that refusing to bear a weapon does not exclude, for example, the task of evacuating the wounded under fire. In this case, weapons are not needed and will only interfere.
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I said earlier that programs like VOA also used the internet. Those are also being dismantled under Trump. For example those aimed at countering Chinese propaganda by supplying news and other information to people behind their firewall. It’s just stupid, there’s no other word for it.
See following article at the Washington Post.
https://wapo.st/41zLvYy
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It’s being widely reported that the US database tracking Ukrainian children abducted by Russia was deleted. This was important not only for trying to recover them but also reportedly held evidence of those responsible that could be used in future prosecutions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/us/politics/trump-ukraine-abducted-children.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
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Bob, you were right!
Britain would not deploy peacekeeping troops in Ukraine without security guarantees from the United States backing them up, a government minister said Thursday.
Armed Forces Minister Luke Pollard told Times Radio that Prime Minister Keir Starmer's plan for a "coalition of the willing" to police any Ukraine peace deal with russia depends on U.S. involvement — despite Donald Trump's insistence his country won't be directly involved in such a plan.
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-wont-deploy-troops-ukraine-without-us-support-says-minister-luke-pollard/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
Italy, France, Spain and Portugal have not supported the plan of the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kai Kallas, to finance weapons for Ukraine for 40 billion euros, La Stampa newspaper reported. https://www.lastampa.it/esteri/2025/03/20/news/ue_aiuti_kiev_piano_fondi_5_miliardi-15062088/?ref=LSHA-BH-P5-S4-T1
The EU has decided not to confiscate frozen russian assets. Several EU countries have opposed the confiscation of $200 billion in russian assets. This was stated in the conclusion of the EU summit on March 20, writes Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/ru/es-ne-budet-konfiskovyvat-zamorozennye-rossijskie-aktivy/a-71987181
It looks like Europe is washing its hands of it...
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It looks like Europe is washing its hands of it...
That’s very bad news.
Despite the dreams of Trump and the [always] short sighted isolationists in his party, it seems that Europe cannot presently project even a fraction of American military power into their own backyard, and probably won’t be able to for a decade or more. And it isn’t clear, to me at least, that their people will support the spending required, nor that they will be able to act in a unified manner without the US playing a central role.
Then there is the problem of Europe irritating the Russian Bear just across the borders, so to speak, when Trump cannot be counted on to support them, let alone act according to the NATO charter, given his many statements about NATO, Russia and especially his actions in regard to Ukraine.
Russia is reminding the EU of their vulnerability by damaging numerous telecom and power cables in the Baltic without firing a shot.
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Today in Kyiv the weather is beautiful. It is warm again and the sun is shining. My training was not in vain and I learned to clear my head from war and other problems at least for the time when I walk down the street and watch the birds build nests in the trees and buds appear on the branches. For them there is no money, no states, no politics, because of which people kill each other with such zeal. Although those people who directly kill, as a rule, have neither power nor money.
Drone attacks continue and the greatest damage is inflicted where there is no strong air defense. For example, Kropyvnytskyi was attacked by twenty "shaheeds". At least ten people were injured in the Russian drone strike, including four children. Houses and railway infrastructure were damaged, trains are delayed. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cx2ew0vkx55o
At the same time, Ukrainian long-range drones attacked a strategic aviation airfield near the russian city of Engels (Saratov Region). According to preliminary data, they managed to hit an ammunition and fuel depot, and there were very large explosions. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cq6y10dv8z8o
russian President Vladimir putin has ordered Ukrainian citizens who are “illegally residing in russia” to leave by September 10, 2025. Since russia considers the occupied territories to be russian, this obligation, from russia's perspective, also applies to the occupied parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cjw2gzg6nvvo
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Despite the dreams of Trump and the [always] short sighted isolationists in his party, it seems that Europe cannot presently project even a fraction of American military power into their own backyard, and probably won’t be able to for a decade or more. And it isn’t clear, to me at least, that their people will support the spending required, nor that they will be able to act in a unified manner without the US playing a central role.
Then there is the problem of Europe irritating the Russian Bear just across the borders, so to speak, when Trump cannot be counted on to support them, let alone act according to the NATO charter, given his many statements about NATO, Russia and especially his actions in regard to Ukraine.
Russia is reminding the EU of their vulnerability by damaging numerous telecom and power cables in the Baltic without firing a shot.
500 million Europeans are begging for protection from 300 million Americans to protect them from 140 million russians who have been unable to defeat 40 million Ukrainians for over three years
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500 million Europeans are begging for protection from 300 million Americans to protect them from 140 million russians who have been unable to defeat 40 million Ukrainians for over three years
I share your scorn. In restrospect, certainly after the fall of the Soviet Union, and probably before, the US should have begun weaning Europe off of a NATO dominated by the US and the presence of numerous US forces.
Would it have mattered? I don’t know. Historically European voters haven’t supported large defense spending (notably excepting Poland). Unfortunately we can’t go back in time and rerun history with weaning.
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As I had said before, I knew Starmer was just grandstanding, trying to look like a leader, but only would act if the US did what we've already said we won't do. Cheap talk as usual from him Still, I'm surprised.he admitted so quickly that he was only kidding! This might be some kind of record.
If 500 million Europeans won't vote to support their own defense, then they deserve whatever they happen to get.
On the other hand, it's also obvious that Russia doesn't seem to be in any shape to be invading western Europe anytime soon. So Europe has plenty of time to prepare, if they can bear to give up some aspects of the welfare state in order to fund their militaries.
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Historically the UK has spent the NATO “required” 2% of GDP on defense, and France spends similar amounts. They are the only European countries with nuclear forces and the ability to project at least some military force well beyond their borders. Yet they cannot seem to muster much will regarding peacekeeping or anything else in Ukraine for the future.
The 2% level was determined in the context of the US playing its traditional large role. It’s no doubt inadequate now with Trump and him perhaps setting a lower level of American involvement in European defense that may endure beyond his term in office. However it would be a serious mistake for the US to reduce involvement too rapidly without Europe being ready to engage Russia if necessary. Our economic and military security is fully intertwined with Europe (and Asia). “The economy” is global to a degree unrealized by most people.
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Bob, there are many people (including me) who believe that Europe will never actually stand on their own, unless the rug is actually pulled out from under them. With Russia having shown that they are a paper tiger, it's an opportune time to pull that rug out. After the Ukraine war, Russia will have time to rearm, and so will Europe. If Europe instead chooses to stick their heads in the sand like an ostrich, they will bear the consequences. I hope they are wiser than that, but I somehow can't envision Brussels pressuring politically-dysfunctional nations such as Italy, Greece, etc into contributing anything in proportion to their GDP. I imagine those weakling nations will end up free-riding on Germany, France, and the UK in the same way that all of Europe has been free-riding on the US.
Europe needs to arm up in terms of nuclear, also, because as I had stated previously, no US president of either party is going to shoot a nuke at Russia unless they first shoot a nuke directly at the US. We may have a doctrine or treaty that says we will, but we won't, and never would have.
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Hi Brady,
I agree, but would characterize Russia as still very dangerous, though now perhaps more like a small juvenile bear rather than a full grown angry sow.
Will the more capable European governments consistently fund their higher defense budgets and accomplish substantially more military power and readiness before Russia rearms? I have no doubt that Russian psy-ops, cyber-ops, disinformation and propaganda machinery will be running 24/7 to thwart it.
As I mentioned previously I agree that Europe must now consider acquiring nuclear weapons. It’s a fraught thing, with proliferation, terrorist concerns and historical enmity. For example would France accept a nuclear armed Germany?
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Here is something almost unbelievable, but unfortunately it’s not fiction.
A report about what Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Special Envoy, said in a recent Tucker Carlson interview about Putin, Russia, Ukraine and Starmer’s plan.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62zm4eqvp7o
At the end he gives away the game by musing about how it would be good if Russia and the US could sell gas and work on arctic projects together. So apparently it’s about business opportunities, and a return to the old Big Powers way of ruling the world for profit.
Note: I tried to find a transcript of the interview but couldn’t, so the best I could find so far was this article.
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and probably before, the US should have begun weaning Europe off of a NATO dominated by the US and the presence of numerous US forces.
Wait, wasn't dominating Europe one of the US's global goals as a global superpower?
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So Europe has plenty of time to prepare, if they can bear to give up some aspects of the welfare state in order to fund their militaries.
Europe has created a weak society of lazy and illiterate dependents who live well on benefits. As a manager, I see such an organization of life in the country as unacceptable. By analogy with companies, this can only lead to bankruptcy and absorption by a stronger competitor. The development of weapons production, in addition to strengthening military power, will also lead to an increase in the number of jobs and the economy as a whole due to related industries. If you do not have resources that you can sell (this is not about Europe) and cannot seize the resources of others (this is also not about Europe), then the only way to increase the wealth and strength of your country is to develop the means of production and create material values. However, the brilliant Ray Dalio not only described in detail the development cycles of states, but also explained why this happens in his book - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail.
However, in his opinion, the United States is not in the best condition now either.
https://economicprinciples.org/downloads/DalioRay_Power_Index_Appendix.pdf
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Here is something almost unbelievable, but unfortunately it’s not fiction.
A report about what Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Special Envoy, said in a recent Tucker Carlson interview about Putin, Russia, Ukraine and Starmer’s plan.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62zm4eqvp7o
U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, who recently emerged as a leading figure in negotiations regarding russia and Ukraine, revealed insights into ongoing ceasefire talks between Moscow and Washington.
In an interview on March 21 with American far-right political commentator Tucker Carlson, Witkoff openly parroted russian propaganda and agreed with most of the Kremlin's talking points, further casting doubt on whether Ukraine can expect to gain a ceasefire on its terms.
"I think the largest issue in that conflict are these so-called four regions, Donbas, Crimea ... and there's two others," Witkoff said, apparently referring to partly russian-occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and Crimea, fully occupied by russia since 2014.
"They are russian-speaking, and there have been referendums where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under russian rule," Witkoff added, omitting the circumstances surrounding russia's sham referendums "at gunpoint" in occupied Ukraine.
Equating Ukrainian russian speakers to russians who support the war and using language as a way to justify its war against Ukraine is a common theme of russian propaganda.
Witkoff also claimed that Ukraine will hold presidential elections. His statement came after Carlson saying that Moscow considers Zelensky "not elected" and, therefore, "can't sign any kind of treaty."
Witkoff alleged that Ukrainian leadership had "largely conceded that they are not going to be a member of NATO" but added the discussion is open on whether Ukraine could have a degree of NATO-member protection from the U.S. and European countries.
Witkoff added that russia "100%" doesn't want to wage a war in Europe or "absorb Ukraine" fully.
"(russia's) reclaimed these five regions. They have Crimea, and they've gotten what they want. So why do they need more?" Witkoff added, not mentioning that russia had made similar claims of not invading Ukraine prior to its full-scale invasion.
"Who doesn't want to have a world where russia and the United States are doing collaboratively good things together?" he said, mentioning the prospect of doing business as usual with Russia with "energy policies in the Arctic," selling natural gas to Europe and collaborating on AI.
Well, what's said is said. Ukraine needs to urgently change a lot of things to survive, but who will do it if it is led by the same people who led it to disaster? I still don't want to think about the fact that this could be part of one big game that started long before 2022.
Meanwhile, money is always money, and Zelensky's friend has seized control of yet another highly profitable business. Ukraine has created the PlayCity State Agency, which will replace the liquidated Commission for the Regulation of Gambling and Lotteries and will be responsible for state regulation in the field of organizing and conducting gambling and in the field of lotteries. The activities of the agency, which will be subordinate to the Ministry of Digital, will be coordinated by Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov. https://zn.ua/ukr/ECONOMICS/v-ukrajini-stvorili-derzhahentstvo-plejsiti-jak-pratsjuvatime-novij-rehuljator-azartnikh-ihor-.html
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russian drone attacks have been happening every day/night for a long time now, but tonight in Kyiv there were three direct hits on residential buildings, one of them less than a kilometer from me and literally in Sergiy's neighboring house.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cq6y3my01ndt
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cly2j9vd81wo
They shot down a drone almost above me and it changed the sound and dived into that unfortunate house. At night in the dark you never know where exactly the drone will end up. When several drones are flying at the same time, the situation becomes even worse. However, this did not stop me from recording these sounds in high quality for Cicely.
As I said before, recently drones are shot down when they have already flown into the city. Six months ago they were shot down earlier and they fell into the fields, causing practically no damage. Apparently, the problem is complex. On the one hand, there are many more drones, and on the other hand, the mobile teams that shot down drones in the fields were partially sent to the front as stormtroopers. And this is one of the reasons why no one wants to join the army. Perhaps there would be more mobile teams, and fewer drones would fly into the cities, if people were sure that when they go to shoot down drones, they will shoot down drones. I'm not even talking about the fact that in order to successfully shoot down drones, people with the appropriate skills and experience are needed.
Some even believe that this is being done intentionally, so that people in the cities agree to peace on any terms, just so that the war ends and drones no longer fly into their homes.
As for me, my heart starts to hurt from sleepless nights and stress.
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Thank god that that neither Sergiy’s house nor yours was damaged. Much too close.
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Hello Bob! I understand the dangers of proliferation of nuclear weapons, but I am not very concerned when they are in the hands of European nations. Middle Eastern nations are a different story. Based on what you've written, I suspect you would agree with that much.
It has become labeled "racist" in this day and age to recognize that some cultures are better than others, but to those who think independently and aren't daunted by name-calling or cancelation, it's easy to see that some cultures are inherently better than others (that is not to say that they are perfect, by any means). European culture is better than Middle Eastern culture, that's my belief - there, I said it. So I don't want to see proliferation of nukes into the hands of ME nations' rulers. It's a sad fact of history that they made it into the hands of Russian dictators, but that ship sailed long ago and there's no calling it back to port.
As far as anything coming out of Tucker Carlson's mouth, it is generally fantasy. I don't know if he really believes the nonsense he spouts, or if he's just a guy with no conscience who uses sensational lies to make a nice living. Only God can know the answer to that. Fewer and fewer people listen to him as time goes on, but unfortunately there are still some dupes who do.
Wlad, I'm so sorry to hear about the stress conditions there - I don't know how long it will take to end this thing, but I hope it is soon. I pray it is soon.
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An article in the NYT this morning. More about the contest of Putin v Trump. As I expected, Trump is being out-played by a mile.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/world/europe/trump-russia-putin-ukraine.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Let’s go back a bit and recall howTrump said how eager he was to end the war even before taking office, bragged about his ability to stop it within a day, and talked about concessions that might be made. Putin has naturally taken all of that as granted, and will be demanding more. Meanwhile Trump and his “negotiators” have been parroting Russian propaganda and gushing with compliments of Putin.
Trump and his people have either fundamentally misjudged Putin, who is a cold blooded killer, or have simply chosen to ignore his character, behavior, and long track record as a dictator. No amount of ego stroking will cause him to roll over like a puppy and become amenable to changing his imperial goals, nor will more and more concessions. They will only invite more demands. He is not interested in improving Russian economics at the expense of any of his sick dreams.
Trump apparently sees only dollar signs for the US (and perhaps for himself*) in a rapprochement with Russia and actually cares nothing for the fate of people in Ukraine, IMO.
Putin has already largely won against Trump.
* I’ve loosely followed Trump since reading the Art of the Deal decades ago and realizing at that time what type of person he is. He doesn’t do anything without personal gain involved, IMO.
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Putin has a long track record of fooling US presidents, so as much as I hate to concede it to him, he must be pretty good at it. I remember GWB saying that he looked into Putin's soul and saw something trustworthy, Obama telling Romney that Russia was done as a security threat, and Trump now being outplayed (so far - he still has the opportunity to change it, but can he, will he?).
On a positive note, Russia's economy has been wrecked, and their ability to recover from it wrecked, as well. No matter how much power he wants to have, the amount he can actually have will be driven strictly by economics. As it always is.
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Yes It’s unfortunate but sadly necessary that more nations need to seriously consider nuclear weapons programs, and I agree that European nations are a pretty safe bet to have them and some others are certainly not.
We must be on guard though. It’s possible that even in a presently stable democracy a despot might someday be elected, become a dictator by degrees, and then threaten and attack neighbors while protected by his nukes. As yet there seems to be no perfect solution and it seems that humans will continue to occasionally let themselves be led to disaster by such men.
I remember well Bush the Younger describing how he “looked into Putin’s eyes” and saw someone he could trust (paraphrasing), and Obama’s overconfidence, etc. It’s a recurring theme and not only with Putin, but he’s certainly excellent at pretending to be what his opponent wants to see.
There’s a tendency IMO for free men in democratic stable society with rule of law protecting their rights to naively assume the best of people even when evidence says otherwise. Even when the facts are in, there is a denial phase and some never understand (example, Pollyannas about career violent criminals).
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Trump apparently sees only dollar signs for the US (and perhaps for himself*) in a rapprochement with Russia and actually cares nothing for the fate of people in Ukraine, IMO.
Putin has already largely won against Trump.
* I’ve loosely followed Trump since reading the Art of the Deal decades ago and realizing at that time what type of person he is. He doesn’t do anything without personal gain involved, IMO.
I don't think putin won against Trump. I think that Trump is simply pursuing goals known only to him and does not believe that he needs to take into account the interests of Ukraine, which is also represented by a person whom he either considers an enemy or despises. It seems to me that Ukrainians are something similar to Palestinians for him. This explains his support for russia and Israel.
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I remember well Bush the Younger describing how he “looked into Putin’s eyes” and saw someone he could trust (paraphrasing), and Obama’s overconfidence, etc. It’s a recurring theme and not only with Putin, but he’s certainly excellent at pretending to be what his opponent wants to see.
There’s a tendency IMO for free men in democratic stable society with rule of law protecting their rights to naively assume the best of people even when evidence says otherwise. Even when the facts are in, there is a denial phase and some never understand (example, Pollyannas about career violent criminals).
I am sincerely surprised how politicians of such level can take someone's word for it or see "something" in their eyes. Probably this is forgivable for an actor who also saw "the peace in putin's eyes", although American and Ukrainian intelligence, together with Biden, personally warned him about the attack.
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Today it was raining again and my leg started to hurt. I was walking home, limping badly, and then a car rushed past me, from which, further down the street, those who were catching people jumped out and attacked some guy there. Apparently they didn't think I was worth their attention. I walked past them with a calm face, thanking God.
Sometimes during joint calls with our office in Vienna, colleagues there complain about stress in the office. They don't understand that in Ukraine you just relax in the office after stress outside of it, where russians launch drones and missiles into your house, and man hunters want to send you to the army in their place.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has removed from the agenda a bill that proposes to allow the National Guard to use firearms and tear gas against civilians during "mass riots," said Vitaliy Shabunin, head of the Anti-Corruption Center. https://zn.ua/ukr/UKRAINE/zakonoprojekt-pro-rozshirennja-povnovazhen-nhu-znjali-z-porjadku-dennoho-radi-shabunin.html
Apparently, public outcry still matters to the authorities. Although it can be adopted later, disguised as another, when the necessary norms are inserted into a law that has a different name and regulates other things, which has already been done before.
It seems that authoritarianism has been becoming popular in the world recently. More than a thousand people have been detained during protests following the jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said on Monday. Imamoglu, a political rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was detained from his home on Wednesday. Authorities in Istanbul banned protests and closed some roads “in order to maintain public order” and “prevent any provocative actions that may occur.” https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/24/europe/turkey-detains-protesters-istanbul-mayor-intl/index.html
Time magazine has once again published a big article about Zelensky, this time placing his photo on the cover with an eloquent caption - The Endgame. https://time.com/7270880/zelensky-trump-putin-ukraine-endgame-interview/
The White House says russia and Ukraine have agreed to ensure safe passage for commercial shipping in the Black Sea and stop military strikes. Ukraine agrees to stop military force in the Black Sea, but says any movement of russian naval vessels would be a violation of the agreement. "It is too early to say that it will work, but these were the right meetings, the right decisions," says President Zelensky
Meanwhile, russia says certain sanctions on banks, insurers, and food exporters must be lifted before the ceasefire comes into force. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c4g7w7521w0t
Yesterday, russian forces launched a missile strike on the center of Sumy, local authorities reported dozens of injuries. The attack damaged high-rise buildings and a school. The strike hit a busy area of the city, where a school, several kindergartens, and an infectious diseases hospital are located. According to the city council, as of the morning of March 25, at least 99 people were injured, including 17 children. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cjd3mkn0l0po
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I don't think putin won against Trump. I think that Trump is simply pursuing goals known only to him and does not believe that he needs to take into account the interests of Ukraine, which is also represented by a person whom he either considers an enemy or despises. It seems to me that Ukrainians are something similar to Palestinians for him. This explains his support for russia and Israel.
I agree. He’s had a very strong interest in Russia for years, long before any issue with Ukraine, and said he wanted to build a hotel in Moscow. During his last term as President he had a private meeting with Putin (including only interpreters) but wouldn’t disclose the conversation to his advisors and demanded that the interpreter destroy his notes. He clearly likes Putin (and seemingly every other dictator and strongman).
Ukraine didn’t agree to his demands about Hunter Biden which he’s certainly not forgotten, but at some point he became very interested in the potential mineral business which is apparently all that Ukraine means to him at the moment. At least that is something.
Which puts Ukraine into a partly similar position as Greenland and Canada. Perhaps what will remain of Ukraine could become the 53rd American state. Then there wouldn’t be tariffs on the minerals! /s
None of this explains the inverted history and morality that he and his minions spout about Ukraine and Russia. But then I must remember that he is a fundamentally amoral person.
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I am sincerely surprised how politicians of such level can take someone's word for it or see "something" in their eyes. Probably this is forgivable for an actor who also saw "the peace in putin's eyes", although American and Ukrainian intelligence, together with Biden, personally warned him about the attack.
Don’t feel too bad, Look at some of those we in the US have elected to Congress and the Presidency.
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It seems that authoritarianism has been becoming popular in the world recently. More than a thousand people have been detained during protests following the jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said on Monday. Imamoglu, a political rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was detained from his home on Wednesday. Authorities in Istanbul banned protests and closed some roads “in order to maintain public order” and “prevent any provocative actions that may occur.” https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/24/europe/turkey-detains-protesters-istanbul-mayor-intl/index.html
Turkiye and Israel will be at war with each other over Homs, in Syria at least and perhaps elsewhere. Erdogan has delusions of being much larger than he actually is, although his country is certainly strategically located!
Very sorry to read about the ongoing bombing of innocents in Ukraine. Praying for peace!
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US President Donald Trump's presidential Envoy for Special Missions Richard Grenell has stated that the nuclear weapons that remained on Ukrainian territory after the collapse of the USSR belonged to russia and claimed this to be an "uncomfortable fact".
Quote from Grenell: "Let's be clear about the Budapest Memorandum: the nukes were russia's and were leftovers. Ukraine gave the nukes back to russia. They weren't Ukraine's. This is an uncomfortable fact."
Steven Pifer, former US ambassador to Ukraine and nuclear weapons expert, responded by stating that Grenell is "flat wrong".
Quote from Pifer: "I helped negotiate Budapest Memorandum. Grenell is flat wrong. Nuclear warheads in Ukraine were ex-Soviet, not russian. Warheads in storage were in sole Ukrainian custody. ICBMs [intercontinental ballistic missiles] and bombers were eliminated in Ukraine except small number sent to russia for debt relief."
He advised Grenell to read the full story.
Earlier, former US president Bill Clinton expressed regret over his role in Ukraine's nuclear disarmament in the 1990s, suggesting that otherwise russia might not have launched its full-scale invasion.
In January 1994, Clinton signed a trilateral agreement with the then presidents of russia and Ukraine, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kravchuk, on eliminating the arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons that remained on Ukrainian territory after the collapse of the USSR.
In December of the same year, the United States also joined the Budapest Memorandum, which stipulated russia's obligation to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/03/26/7504568/
These words of Grenell may mean that another member of the Trump administration is stupid and does not know history, or that they are doing this deliberately, repeating russian propaganda. In any case, it is very sad for Ukraine and for the world.
In Ukraine, the topic of nuclear weapons left over from the USSR is also quite popular in debates at all levels. Some people believe that Ukraine did not have the money and technical ability to service and use it anyway, while others believe that Ukraine, as one of the developers and manufacturers of these missiles and electronics, could adapt nuclear weapons and maintain it in working order. Now we will never know about this, as well as confirmation of rumors that Kravchuk personally received huge amounts of money at that time, disarming Ukraine.
But we should also not forget that it was the Ukrainians who elected the former communist and head of the Communist Party of the Ukrainian SSR Kravchuk as the first president of Ukraine, and not, for example, the nationalist Chornovil, as the Poles did in 1990, choosing Lech Walesa.
Nonetheless, both putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky probably understand the risks of a prolonged war. A protracted conflict could drag down the russian economy and risks “undesired escalation with the West,” while for Ukraine, Zelensky likely understands that the future of western assistance is uncertain, the report found.
Moscow also retains the momentum on the battlefield as a grinding war of attrition plays to russia’s military advantages and “will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow.”
The US intelligence community also continues to see a risk that putin may resort to nuclear weapons. “russia’s inability to achieve quick and decisive battlefield wins, coupled with Ukrainian strikes within russia, continues to drive concerns that putin might use nuclear weapons,” according to the assessment. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-25/russia-ukraine-see-unsatisfactory-ceasefire-worse-than-continued-war-us-says
Meanwhile, the strategic prospects for Ukraine are getting worse and worse every day.
European efforts to create security arrangements for Ukraine are shifting from sending troops to other alternatives as they face political and logistical constraints, and the prospect of russia and the United States opposing their plans.
Ukraine has long said that any peace deal would require firm security guarantees from the West to prevent any repeat of attacks by russia, which launched its full-scale invasion in 2022. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who both visited the White House last month, have each suggested their countries could contribute thousands of troops to a future force. But they have also so far fruitlessly sought some form of "backstop" from Washington, without specifying what this entails.
Moscow says it will never agree to any proposal for NATO countries to send troops to Ukraine.
President Donald Trump, who has shifted U.S. policy abruptly towards accepting russia's narrative about the conflict, initially praised the British and French proposals to send troops and said he thought russia would agree to them. But lately American officials have sounded more sceptical. In an interview with podcaster Tucker Carlson last week, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff ridiculed the European proposals as "a posture and a pose".
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europes-talks-ukraine-security-shift-sending-troops-2025-03-26/
"The European Union is facing unprecedented threats - geopolitical instability and conflicts, cybersecurity risks and information manipulation, climate change and the increasing likelihood of natural disasters," the European Commission said, publishing a new Crisis Preparedness Strategy. Every resident of the European Union must be prepared to survive autonomously in crisis situations for at least three days. https://commission.europa.eu/topics/preparedness_en
When you read some court decisions, you understand why the authorities want to close public access to them. One such decision shows that the commander did not let a soldier go to the medical unit and the soldier died. For this, the commander was fined $400.
On March 17, the Sloviansk City District Court of Donetsk Oblast found the commander of the engineering and sapper unit of one of the mechanized battalions, Junior Sergeant Andriy K., guilty of negligent attitude to military service, which led to the death of his subordinate.
As indicated in the case materials, at about 10:00 p.m. on February 26, 2025, serviceman M. informed Andriy K. of the urgent need to go to the medical center due to heart problems.
However, Andriy K. refused to let the soldier go to the medical center.
As a result, soldier M. died during the night.
According to the death certificate of serviceman M., which was drawn up on February 27, the soldier's death occurred as a result of "acute coronary insufficiency."
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/326722-komandir-ne-otpustil-soldata-v-meditsinskuyu-chast-i-soldat-umer-chto-reshil-sud
The question of what a sick soldier was doing in the army apparently did not interest anyone at all...
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Wlad, I’m often so disturbed by reading your accounts that a must stop and continue later.
Merely walking along and nearly being abducted by thugs for the army, or being killed outright by a missile - I don’t know how you get through the day, or night. I suppose you do because there’s no other choice.
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I echo Bob's sentiment. You obviously have a high tolerance for stress and uncertainty (which is the essence of stress) beyond what most of us have.
"There are no great men, there are only great challenges, which ordinary men like you and me are forced by circumstances to meet." - Bull Halsey
I only disagree with Halsey to the extent that meeting those challenges is what makes a man great. Wlad, you are meeting the challenges.
Grenell's statement that the nuclear weapons never belonged to Ukraine, is absurd. Possession is nine tenths of the law. Ukraine possessed them, that's all that mattered... until they were negotiated away with two of the signatories (US and Russia, perhaps others as well) agreeing in bad faith. I'm sure Clinton thought, "we'll agree to this and hope we never have to enforce it, at least not on my watch." He knew we never would enforce it. And, he got kudos at the time for reducing nuclear proliferation. In other words, the same thought process that is behind Article 5: We've agreed to it for political reasons and for keeping up appearances, but we were never going to abide by it in the event it risks a nuclear conflict.
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Wlad, I’m often so disturbed by reading your accounts that a must stop and continue later.
Merely walking along and nearly being abducted by thugs for the army, or being killed outright by a missile - I don’t know how you get through the day, or night. I suppose you do because there’s no other choice.
I often repeat that there is always a choice. But I don’t have an unambiguous, let alone correct, answer to this question. I have a strong sense of guilt towards my wife and children, who may consider me a traitor. My wife sometimes says that in Poland there are only two fools left who live without husbands, she and her friend. The others' husbands have long since arrived and they are living together. When I offer to sell the apartment and buy the opportunity to leave Ukraine for a bribe or try to cross the border illegally in the mountains on my own, she remains silent.
The reason is probably that I am very stubborn. Having made the decision to stay in Ukraine three years ago, I cannot accept that I was wrong, and I continue to bang my head against the wall of Ukrainian reality. However, I have also had some successes, and only God knows what will happen next. Faith in Him gives me strength and support that is not available to many people here, who are disappointed in everything and do not believe in anything. I should have died of cardiac arrest, but apparently God decided that I should live on. Perhaps I should continue writing. And this remains more important to me than work, although it is also a miracle. I met wonderful people there and it gives me the opportunity to support children in Poland, who are growing up there in a much healthier environment and receive a good education. Everything has to be paid for, and I pay with what I do. The war will end someday, and I hope that all the sacrifices were not in vain. I also don’t consider myself so weak as to give up now after everything I’ve been through.
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Yesterday and today there were again several large drone attacks in Dnipro, Kharkiv and Poltava. Much destruction and casualties among the civilian population.
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-regions/3975279-unaslidok-ataki-droniv-u-dnipri-postrazdali-troe-civilnih-poskodzeni-ponad-desatok-bagatopoverhivok.html
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-ova-ataka-droniv-vluchannia-promzona-poltava/33362268.html
The heating was also turned off in Kyiv ahead of schedule. Fortunately, it’s +15C outside during the day and it’s not very cold in the apartments.
I have ordered parts for the bike and plan to start riding it again, although cyclists are regularly targeted by man hunters. This was even noted by the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets.
“Recently, at least 3 videos have been posted in the media where cyclists are hit by a car and then people in uniform use force and put these cyclists in cars. I would like to emphasize that such actions are unacceptable and require a response,” he said. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/326313-dmitriy-lubinets-otreagiroval-na-video-gde-sotrudniki-ttsk-sbivayut-velosipedistov-i-pomeschayut-ikh-v-busiki
He stated that human rights violations by employees of territorial recruitment and social assistance centers have become widespread.
Among the most egregious cases, Lubinets named:
Physical violence and frequent cases of beatings of citizens. There are situations when groups of people are forcibly detained on the streets, in shopping centers, near the metro, using brute physical force.
Beating people on the roads. There are reports of cases when employees of mobilization centers deliberately cause road accidents in order to forcibly stop cyclists or motorcyclists.
The Commissioner's office also records cases of violations of the law by employees of mobilization centers, such as:
Deprivation of the right to legal protection. Employees of mobilization centers do not allow lawyers to visit detained persons, preventing them from exercising their legal rights.
Concealment of information about detained citizens. Relatives and human rights activists cannot obtain information about the whereabouts of detainees, which is a direct violation of human rights.
Denial of access to representatives of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Commissioner for Human Rights. Due to denial of access, they cannot exercise control over the observance of the rights of detainees, which hinders the effective protection of citizens.
Forced signing of documents. There is extensive evidence that people are forced to sign summonses or other documents without explaining their content and legal consequences.
Detention without proper grounds. There are known cases when mobilization measures were applied to persons who have legal grounds for postponement or are not subject to mobilization at all (students, people with disabilities, citizens caring for seriously ill relatives, etc.).
Interestingly, the proposal to hear him in parliament was not supported by the deputies. https://censor.net/ua/news/3543401/lubinets-zrobyv-zayavu-schodo-vypadkiv-porushennya-ttsk-prav-lyudyny
Although sometimes law enforcement agencies still react. Employees of the State Bureau of Investigation reported the suspicion of the deputy head of the Vinnytsia United City Territorial Center for Recruitment and Social Support and her former subordinate for beating a conscript man.
On September 12, 2024, a man came to the Center and received a summons. He had a valid reservation, since he worked at a critical infrastructure enterprise. While in the institution, he was sent to the deputy head.
The official was dissatisfied with his behavior and began to force him to sign the conscript questionnaire and refuse the reservation. After the man did not agree to such actions, she hit him on the head, and then began to strangle him.
Another serviceman, at that time a subordinate of the official, was also in the office, who punched the victim at least three times in the face and head. After the beating, the man's phone was taken away. https://dbr.gov.ua/news/dbr-povidomilo-pro-pidozru-posadovici-vinnickogo-om-tck-ta-sp-ta-ii-pidleglomu-cherez-pobittya-gromadyanina
But this fate usually befalls poor people. Businessman, lawyer and former Kyiv City Council member Denys Komarnytsky, who is wanted on suspicion of corruption, was able to leave Ukraine with the help of law enforcement officers. He is accused of organizing the illegal allocation of land plots in Kyiv for development with the involvement of city council members.
Komarnytsky himself denies the charges and claims that he is abroad "on legal grounds" and is visiting his family, who fled the war.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cp8y0pln528o
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Wlad, what you are describing is near to being anarchy. It makes me wonder who is in charge, or if anyone is. Keep a low profile and resist the urge to ride that bike.
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Wlad, what you are describing is near to being anarchy. It makes me wonder who is in charge, or if anyone is. Keep a low profile and resist the urge to ride that bike.
I agree with Brady, don’t make yourself a more tempting target for these criminals.
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I agree with Brady, don’t make yourself a more tempting target for these criminals.
The main thing is not to confuse who the bandits are.
For a week now, videos have been appearing on social networks showing mysterious vans with the captions “military lawyers” and a phone number.
One of them had this story. This car was parked near one of the mobilization centers, which caused a big stir. A lot of police arrived and blocked the road. There was a crush involving the police, mobilization center workers and unknown people. Some were detained by the police, some were taken away by ambulance. The windows of the van were broken and it was also taken away. The police said that they received a report about a suspicious car, but of course nothing dangerous was found.
https://focus.ua/uk/ukraine/699726-incident-z-tck-u-kiyevi-ye-postrazhdaliy-vid-sutichki-detali?utm_source=ukrnet_news
In one of the videos with these vans they say that in Kyiv, if you are caught by workers of the mobilization center or the police, you can contact the company and they will immediately send several vans with strong guys to the place. The vans will have the inscriptions “military lawyers”. And they will pick you up from the mobilization center and take you wherever you want. This service is paid - about 3-4 thousand dollars. That is, in order not to pay the mobilization center, you can pay the bandits who will save you from the mobilization center.
The Ukrainian National Bar Associations stated that there is neither a “military bar” nor persons with the legal status of “military lawyers” in Ukraine and it has nothing to do with it. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/326976-v-naau-zrobili-zayavu-pro-tak-zvanikh-viyskovikh-advokativ-na-mikroavtobusakh-yaki-za-groshi-vidbivayut-lyudey-u-ttsk
Well, that was to be expected. The state is rapidly losing its legitimacy and monopoly on force. If the laws are bad and the state itself does not observe them, then others will not observe them either. If the state uses the law of force instead of the force of law, then this may lead to others responding to force with force. Now tell me how this is different from 2014, when Maidan Uprising https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan happened? Except that now the population has many more weapons and even less desire to obey the authorities.
And such clashes will happen more often. In the Khmelnytsky region, a fight broke out between workers of the mobilization center and civilians, even women were injured. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/postrazdaly-navit-zinky-na-khmelnychchyni-stalasia-masova-biyka-miz-pratsivnykamy-ttsk-ta-tsyvilnymy-2797689.html
At the same time, the court acquitted one of the heads of the mobilization center, who was unable to fulfill the mobilization plan. He was unable to fulfill the mobilization plan due to the lack of a sufficient number of conscripts in the area who were suitable in age and health. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/326935-resursa-v-rayone-bolshe-net-sud-opravdal-odnogo-iz-rukovoditeley-ttsk-kotoryy-ne-smog-vypolnit-plan-mobilizatsii
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"The russian occupiers have begun using long-range drones in a new tactic. Instead of flying to the respective targets one after the other at intervals of a few minutes, the drones now cluster a few kilometers from the attack sites at an altitude of several thousand meters, in order to then simultaneously strike the respective city," notes BILD military observer Julian Röpcke. https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/inferno-in-ukrainischen-staedten-putins-neue-perfide-drohnen-taktik-67e6c109ee15d54841c5bbd5
Apparently, this is also the reason why more and more drones are hitting houses and infrastructure objects. It's been especially bad in the Dnipro lately.
https://uatv.ua/uk/rozbyti-budynky-ta-znyshheni-mashyny-naslidky-udaru-rf-po-dnipru-pokazaly-zhurnalisty-freedom-video/
https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/03/28/novyna/bezpeka/rosiyany-masovano-atakuvaly-dnipro-dronamy-spalaxnuly-pozhezhi
russian President Vladimir putin has once again stated that Ukraine has no legitimate government and proposed introducing external rule in the country. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c89y9gj9e87o
In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that putin will die soon. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cq5zvz3d1nvo
russian forces are preparing to launch a fresh military offensive in the coming weeks to maximize pressure on Ukraine and strengthen the Kremlin’s negotiating position in ceasefire talks, Ukrainian government and military analysts said. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-spring-fighting-offensive-ceasefire-talks-49ee814cc4a8416c444ab7deae42488c
Poland gears up for war. Warsaw is already spending big on defense. Now it needs the manpower. Poland spent almost two centuries as a colony of Moscow and retains a deep-seated wariness of the country. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has kicked that worry into overdrive.
Warsaw is now NATO’s biggest defense spender at 4.7 percent of GDP, has the EU's largest army, and is spending billions of euros on jets, rockets, tanks, artillery and more. Now the frontline state is getting its population ready for war.
Were a full-scale conflict to erupt, Poland doesn't have the strategic depth of some other European countries, Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces General Wiesław Kukuła told POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-military-training-war-defense-russia-belarus/
Instead of relying on space to hold off the Russians, Poland is planning to more than double its military to half a million troops and to train millions of reservists, Tusk told parliament earlier in March. "By the end of the year, we want to have a model ready so that every adult male in Poland is trained for war, and so that this reserve is adequate for possible threats," Tusk said in parliament, adding that women can also sign up. The training will be voluntary, he said, seeking to offset concerns of a return to the country's hugely unpopular conscription policy, which ended in 2008.
For Poland, a high-income country with some of the strongest economic growth rates in the EU, the switch to battle-readiness will mark a shift in mindset — and many of its citizens are eager to get started.
Authorities plan to roll out short-term military training programs aimed at civilians with no prior experience, the Rzeczpospolita newspaper reported. These crash courses, lasting just a few days, will introduce participants to the fundamentals of civil defense, first aid and select military skills.
For those with prior military training, the government is offering targeted refresher courses designed to sharpen specialized skills, including firearms proficiency, combat medicine and land navigation.
Civilians looking for more comprehensive preparation can enroll in a month-long training program, available in both in-person and online formats.
Of course, not all Poles want to serve in the army, but perhaps the Polish authorities will take into account the Ukrainian experience and will have no problems with mobilization if necessary.
It is also unknown how many Poles will decide to leave Poland in the event of war, but this may be compensated by Ukrainians who decide to stay in Poland.
The European Union’s “temporary protection” scheme, which offers the bloc’s 4.3m Ukrainian refugees access to housing, employment and benefits, is due to expire next March. Europe will probably not imitate Donald Trump, who is considering revoking the status of Ukrainian refugees in America. But whether or not the eu’s programme is extended (for a second time), Ukrainians in exile are increasingly giving up on the idea of going home writes The Economist.
According to a recent study by the Centre for Economic Strategy (ces), a Ukrainian research group, only 43% of the refugees worldwide plan on returning, versus 74% two years earlier. For many, what matters is not only when the war ends, but how. The growing prospect of a ceasefire without Ukrainian membership in nato or the eu, along with continued Russian occupation of a fifth of the country, does not inspire much confidence. Many Ukrainians fear russia would attack again soon.
Ukrainians in Europe are putting down roots. In Poland the share of refugees, most of them women, working or actively seeking work has topped 67%. The government plans to let refugees exchange temporary protection for a residence permit valid for three years. The number that apply “might be a few hundred thousand, or it could be all of them,” says Maciej Duszczyk, the deputy minister of the interior.
Ukrainians contribute much more to Poland’s economy as workers and taxpayers than they cost in humanitarian assistance. In 2023, they added as much as 1.1% to gdp, according to Deloitte, a consultancy. Even a fresh exodus from Ukraine would not pose a problem. Poland’s unemployment rate is just 2.6%, tied for lowest in the eu. Without immigration, the country’s workforce would shrink by up to 2.1m people in the next decade due to ageing, says Andrzej Kubisiak of the Polish Economic Institute, a think-tank. Refugees from Ukraine help plug the gap.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/03/27/ukrainian-refugees-may-be-in-europe-for-good
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Also, one of the main topics for discussion, besides the ceasefire, is the agreement between the US and Ukraine on subsoil resources.
The text of the agreement has not been officially published, but Ukrainian politicians and the media, as well as leading Western publications, are analyzing the agreement based on the texts they received from their sources. The general assessments of the new agreement proposed by the United States - shockingly negative - mostly coincide. One of the most important provisions of the agreement is that Ukraine must recognize previously provided assistance from the United States as debt.
According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the new agreement will give Washington broad powers over the Ukrainian economy, but the problem is that the Ukrainian side will probably not be able to accept these conditions.
The 55-page draft, a copy of which the publication has reviewed, is aimed at recovering billions of dollars in aid received from the United States from Ukraine. Trump believes that the United States has spent $350 billion on Ukraine, which significantly exceeds Ukraine's estimates - about $100 billion.
The new project also has no guarantees of security and future support.
https://www.wsj.com/world/trumps-new-ukraine-proposal-looks-like-an-offer-it-must-refuse-df63193c?mod=hp_lead_pos6
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ce989v8r28vo
Meanwhile, Ukraine's GDP grew by 1.1% in the first two months of 2025. While in the first two months of 2024 by 3.6%. The growth rate slowed down more than three times. There are reasons to believe that there are no prospects for noticeable economic growth rates now.
This happened because the power of the main driver of growth - stimulation from the state budget - was exhausted. The growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2023-2024 occurred primarily due to the "budgetary impulse", a significant part of which was provided by international financial assistance. It created demand and supported consumption, which were the key drivers of economic growth at that time.
The budget deficit at the level of 20-24% of GDP fulfilled its function - thanks to the budget impulse, there was renewed growth after the GDP fell by 29% in 2022. But the budget impulse cannot provide a greater acceleration of growth rates.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/blog/1059701.html
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Glad to hear that Poland's defense readiness drive is not just rhetoric or a passing fancy, as it is in western Europe. They are serious! A strong military is the only thing that could deter Russia from attacking. Finland and Poland will give Russia something to ponder.
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Congratulations to Poland for taking the necessary steps to defend themselves. Also for recognizing that the Ukrainian refugees are a considerable net positive for their economy. I hope the rest of Europe follows their example.
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What is happening now with the cease fire discussions sounds like a squeeze play. Putin is supplying relentless military pressure which Trump is not doing anything about except taking advantage of it to squeeze more mineral and financial concessions out of Ukraine.
Stated another way, in this situation Putin is difficult to bully, but Ukraine is easier to bully. Why would Trump do that? Because he “gets something” for US (his) assistance, and applying maximum leverage to win a negotiation is what he does. That this situation is fundamentally not a business negotiation at all seems to make no difference to him, if he even recognizes it.
(Related- Greenland and Canada as takeover targets).
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No one knows what Trump is trying to do, even if they think they do. From a strictly "actions speak louder than words" standpoint, he is saying the same thing with words, that Biden was saying with inaction: the US isn't willing to risk war with Russia.
Meanwhile, as I predicted some time ago, Starmer and Macron have now admitted that they are a coalition of the (un)willing. https://www.newsweek.com/nato-allies-reverse-course-ukraine-troop-deployment-plans-2051211 (https://www.newsweek.com/nato-allies-reverse-course-ukraine-troop-deployment-plans-2051211)
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Yes.
I don’t blame them for reconsidering, given that 1) They have (like the US) substantially drawn down their munitions stocks for Ukraine, 2) They need to drastically increase their defense capabilities generally since the US has become unreliable and has lost its resolve against Russian aggression, 3) The current Trump administration has been clear in words and deeds from their start that in essence they don’t view Ukraine as important strategically and therefore aren’t supportive of being any kind of backstop for EU peacekeepers, 4) That Trump has said he wants a friendly relationship with and to work with Russia on many fronts, and 5) Their traditionally more pacifist populations.
I believe that it was only the UK and France who were at least making such proposals . They are the only European nuclear powers and I don’t think that is merely coincidence.
We are now headed toward a very uncertain future where I believe that the probabilities of a large conflict arising have increased significantly. Generally, isolationism and breakdown of large alliances weaken security.
China is also of very high concern and the failure of America to strongly address their illegal expansions in the South China Sea over the last 25 years has encouraged them.
However, culturally China is much more entrepreneurial and attuned to making money through trade than the Russians have ever been, and a big war isn’t conducive to that. But the CCP under Xi, possibly for life, could become much more aggressive. Taiwan would be the flash point, and they are ramping up their defense expenditures.
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Congratulations to Poland for taking the necessary steps to defend themselves. Also for recognizing that the Ukrainian refugees are a considerable net positive for their economy. I hope the rest of Europe follows their example.
Considering that I spent most of our savings and continue to spend most of my income on supporting my family in Poland, and there are quite a few like me, this is close to the truth. However, it is worth it, because a Ukrainian in Poland receives better treatment from the state than in Ukraine.
It's cold, rainy and foggy and people are starting to catch colds again because the central heating was turned off last week. It's unpleasant enough to travel on a bus where people are sneezing and coughing. It's doubly unpleasant when you spend twice as much time on the road because the roads are closed so that foreign politicians can go to Bucha again for a tour to mark the anniversary of the massacre. They would be better off going east where the massacre is happening on a daily basis on a much larger scale. The hypocrisy is really annoying.
Before Donald Trump returned, the United States was working with Ukraine to fight russia much more deeply than it seemed, the New York Times reports. The publication published a major investigation into "an extraordinary partnership of intelligence, strategy, planning and technology, the evolution and inner workings of which were known only to a narrow circle of people."
They point to controversies that angered and frustrated the Americans - the uncoordinated use of American weapons and attacks in general in the Kursk region, the attack and sinking of the russian flagship cruiser Moskva, and the failed counteroffensive in 2023, which went against the plan agreed with the Americans.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/30/world/europe/us-ukraine-military-war-takeaways.html
Trump said this weekend he’s “pissed off” with russian President Vladimir putin and warned that failure to reach a deal to stop the Ukraine war could result in secondary tariffs. He accused Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky of “trying to back out” of the proposed minerals deal.
The Kremlin has responded to President Donald Trump’s remarks about being “very angry” and “pissed off” with russian President Vladimir putin. “We continue to work with the American side, first of all, on building our bilateral relations, which suffered enormous damage during the previous administration,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a regular conference call. Peskov went on to say, “We are also working on implementing some ideas related to the Ukrainian settlement. The work is underway, so far there are no specifics that we would have to inform you about.” https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-presidency-news-03-31-25/index.html?t=1743446692222
Ukraine's GDP warrant falls by most in 3 years as truce prospects dim. Ukraine's GDP warrant on Monday was on track for its biggest daily losses since shortly after russia's full-scale invasion three years ago as hopes for ceasefire proposals with russia from U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to falter.
The declines mark a notable turnaround for Ukraine's debt, which rallied after Trump's election victory, but has now lost nearly all those gains as investors question whether Trump will broker a deal that benefits the country's economy. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ukraines-bonds-gdp-warrant-slide-ceasefire-proposals-falter-2025-03-31/
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Considering that I spent most of our savings and continue to spend most of my income on supporting my family in Poland, and there are quite a few like me, this is close to the truth. However, it is worth it, because a Ukrainian in Poland receives better treatment from the state than in Ukraine.
Excellent point.
It’s good to be seeing more information become public about the more extensive and close cooperation between the US and the Ukraine in prosecuting the war. It was obvious that very detailed and timely intelligence information must have been regularly shared to allow well targeted strikes against valuable military targets within Russia especially. However not much more had been revealed than that, nor that there were more military advisors than the very small number of original “specialists”.
But these sort of secret operations is typical, no matter what countries are being discussed because of the danger of being drawn into the conflict. Having a large number of advisors in a belligerent country is generally controversial in an open society because of the potential for larger involvement if some of them become casualties, hence one reason for keeping the fact from the public.
It’s sad that the reports some time ago of American dissatisfaction with some of the Ukrainian strategic actions are apparently true. And, it’s stunning that dividing forces was part of the issue. That mistake has been repeated uncounted times from antiquity to the present, and one would think by now the lesson should have been learned, even by elected politicians.
I don’t know what to think about Trump’s reported frustration with both Zelensky and Putin. How much is true, how much is some sort of negotiating gambit, how much is only for show, and how much is simply typical Trump chaos?
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It continues to rain and I feel bad, but every day can be lived as a whole life and it gives me strength.
The night of April 1, 2025 was the first in a long time when the occupiers did not launch their drones over Ukraine. There could be many reasons for this, starting from creating the appearance of observing a ceasefire, ending with reconfiguring drones and changing the tactics of their use.
Donald Trump told network NBC News on Sunday he is growing frustrated with Vladimir putin as a peace deal drags on. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says he is frustrated with "leaders on both sides". She says the war has gone on for too long, with many dying on both sides. https://news.sky.com/story/trump-third-term-latest-tariffs-stock-market-musk-13209921?postid=9369648#liveblog-body
But russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the U.S. is not taking into account russia's "main demand" to secure peace in its war on Ukraine, and so the Kremlin "cannot accept" American proposals as things stand. "We have not heard from Trump a signal to Kyiv to end the war," Ryabkov told russia's International Affairs magazine in an interview. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-cannot-accept-trump-ukraine-peace-plans-2053585
https://interaffairs.ru/news/show/50973
President Vladimir putin has called up 160,000 men aged 18-30, russia's highest number of conscripts since 2011, as the country moves to expand the size of its military. The spring call-up for a year's military service came several months after putin said russia should increase the overall size of its military to almost 2.39 million and its number of active servicemen to 1.5 million. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c36718p52eyo
It is interesting that in Ukraine mobilization is happening the other way around - people aged 25 and older are subject to mandatory conscription, while those aged 18-24 are offered to serve under a contract.
However, young people in Ukraine are also not interested in public service. The National Civil Service Agency has published the results of a survey on factors that hinder the recruitment of young people to work in the civil service.
The survey was conducted in July-August 2024 among both young professionals who are already working or have experience in civil service, and among young people who do not yet have experience in public service.
According to the survey results, the factors that do not contribute to the employment of young people in the civil service are a toxic atmosphere, low salaries, and corruption.
https://api.par.in.ua/uploads/progress_report/file_uk/47/Survey_Report_Youth_Engagement_to_Public_Service.pdf
In 2024, the number of civil servants under the age of 35 in the civil service of Ukraine was only 20%.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/326661-toksichnaya-atmosfera-nizkaya-zarplata-i-korruptsiya-v-nags-soobschili-pochemu-molodezh-ne-khochet-rabotat-na-gosudarstvo
But not everyone in Ukraine is doing badly. In 2025, Forbes counted six Ukrainian billionaire businessmen. The richest Ukrainian in 2025 was Rinat Akhmetov, owner of DTEK and co-owner of Metinvest. With a fortune of $7.9 billion, he took 390th place in the world.
The list continues with:
Viktor Pinchuk, who owns the Interpipe group of companies - $3.2 billion;
Petro Poroshenko, owner of the Roshen company - $1.7 billion;
Andriy Verevsky, founder of the agricultural holding and main shareholder of Kernel, - 1.4 billion;
Vlad Yatsenko, co-founder of the neobank Revolut, which in 2021 became the most expensive startup in the UK - $1.2 billion;
Vadim Novinsky, owner of Smart Holding Group - $1.2 billion;
Konstantin Zhevago, CEO of Ferrexpo, former owner of the "Finance and Credit" bank - $1.1 billion.
https://unn.ua/en/news/one-more-ukrainian-billionaire-forbes-published-the-ranking-of-the-richest-people-in-the-world-for-2025
Nice song about everything )
https://youtu.be/lpRqe0LYvzs
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"She says the war has gone on for too long, with many dying on both sides."
I agree completely.
I assume neither those Ukrainian billionaires nor their offspring will be opportunistically harvested from the streets, for military service? Rhetorical question.
Hope you soon feel some hope from the springtime weather... it's rather late in coming, here.
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Yes.
I don’t blame them for reconsidering, given that 1) They have (like the US) substantially drawn down their munitions stocks for Ukraine, 2) They need to drastically increase their defense capabilities generally since the US has become unreliable and has lost its resolve against Russian aggression, 3) The current Trump administration has been clear in words and deeds from their start that in essence they don’t view Ukraine as important strategically and therefore aren’t supportive of being any kind of backstop for EU peacekeepers, 4) That Trump has said he wants a friendly relationship with and to work with Russia on many fronts, and 5) Their traditionally more pacifist populations.
Bob, I don't disagree with any of those, but I do believe that #5 is only a recent phenomenon which came about because they could afford to be pacifist and play the moral superiority card, as long as they believed the US would rescue them. They didn't become pacifist because of the brutality of WW2; if that were the case, they would have had the same pacifist reaction to the equally-brutal WW1. And it was the "pacifist" Europeans who started both wars, it wasn't even Russia!
There's nothing quite like an immediate threat that someone else may not handle, to get one to shed their pacifist costume. It's time for Europe to stop fooling themselves about this, in fact, way past time. As was recently pointed out, there are 500 million Europeans, only 350 million Americans, and they are 4000 miles closer to the threat than we are.
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The song and the animation are spot on!
I hope you feel better as the weather improves Wlad.
Weather here has been moving away from winter but then soon back again in typical schizophrenic pattern. Snow at the ski areas changes from hard and icy in the morning, to nicely soft mid-day, then slushy in the afternoon.
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Bob, I don't disagree with any of those, but I do believe that #5 is only a recent phenomenon which came about because they could afford to be pacifist and play the moral superiority card, as long as they believed the US would rescue them. They didn't become pacifist because of the brutality of WW2; if that were the case, they would have had the same pacifist reaction to the equally-brutal WW1. And it was the "pacifist" Europeans who started both wars, it wasn't even Russia!
There's nothing quite like an immediate threat that someone else may not handle, to get one to shed their pacifist costume. It's time for Europe to stop fooling themselves about this, in fact, way past time. As was recently pointed out, there are 500 million Europeans, only 350 million Americans, and they are 4000 miles closer to the threat than we are.
I agree that American military strength and willingness to station forces in Europe after WW2 (and later nuclear weapons and our “nuclear umbrella”) was significant in allowing Europe to spend less on defense and helped to encouraged pacifist sloth (Soviet and Russian propaganda has also been a factor).
(Notably the UK and France have historically spent large sums relative to other countries in Europe and have nuclear weapons, nuclear missile and attack submarines, at least one operational aircraft carrier (the French carrier is nuclear) and other conventional military assets. Italy has two carriers)
However I don’t agree about the pacifism history.
There was considerable pacifism in Europe and the US after WW1. Besides the restrictions placed on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles, there were several other treaties and agreements limiting militaries among many nations including the US. These remained mostly in force until the outbreak of WW2, except by Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.
Civilian pacifism and isolationism movements became fairly popular in Europe and the US, and resulted in insufficient political will for the former allied nations to respond to the rearming of Germany and Japan by increasing shrunken defense budgets and renegotiate or abandon the limits on militaries and ships. Some of this was also due to the effects of the Great Depression.
Ultimately the pacifism and lack of will culminated in Chamberlain’s capitulation to Hitler on the Sudenland which effectively gave Czechoslovakia to Hitler and allowed him to go on to confidently attack Poland starting WW2. Famously, Winston Churchill was in the political wilderness for many years partly for arguing that war was approaching and that rearming was vital.
In the US, there was a similar situation and military budgets had been atrophied for many years. It wasn’t until 1938 that Congress began to greatly increase military spending as war became imminent. Even then, it was still difficult to send military assistance to Britain and other allies because of strong isolationist sentiments in Congress. Not until the US was attacked by Japan and Germany declared war were all of these limitations fully abandoned.
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Bob, I don't disagree with any of those, but I do believe that #5 is only a recent phenomenon which came about because they could afford to be pacifist and play the moral superiority card, as long as they believed the US would rescue them. They didn't become pacifist because of the brutality of WW2; if that were the case, they would have had the same pacifist reaction to the equally-brutal WW1. And it was the "pacifist" Europeans who started both wars, it wasn't even Russia!
There's nothing quite like an immediate threat that someone else may not handle, to get one to shed their pacifist costume. It's time for Europe to stop fooling themselves about this, in fact, way past time. As was recently pointed out, there are 500 million Europeans, only 350 million Americans, and they are 4000 miles closer to the threat than we are.
I agree that American military strength and willingness to station forces in Europe after WW2 (and later nuclear weapons and our “nuclear umbrella”) was significant in allowing Europe to spend less on defense and helped to encouraged pacifist sloth (Soviet and Russian propaganda has also been a factor).
(Notably the UK and France have historically spent large sums relative to other countries in Europe and have nuclear weapons, nuclear missile and attack submarines, at least one operational aircraft carrier (the French carrier is nuclear) and other conventional military assets. Italy has two carriers)
However I don’t agree about the pacifism history.
There was considerable pacifism in Europe and the US after WW1. Besides the restrictions placed on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles, there were several other treaties and agreements limiting militaries among many nations including the US. These remained mostly in force until the outbreak of WW2, except by Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.
Civilian pacifism and isolationism movements became fairly popular in Europe and the US, and resulted in insufficient political will for the former allied nations to respond to the rearming of Germany and Japan by increasing shrunken defense budgets and renegotiate or abandon the limits on militaries and ships. Some of this was also due to the effects of the Great Depression.
Ultimately the pacifism and lack of will culminated in Chamberlain’s capitulation to Hitler on the Sudenland which effectively gave Czechoslovakia to Hitler and allowed him to go on to confidently attack Poland starting WW2. Famously, Winston Churchill was in the political wilderness for many years partly for arguing that war was approaching and that rearming was vital.
In the US, there was a similar situation and military budgets had been atrophied for many years. It wasn’t until 1938 that Congress began to greatly increase military spending as war became imminent. Even then, it was still difficult to send military assistance to Britain and other allies because of strong isolationist sentiments in Congress. Not until the US was attacked by Japan and Germany declared war were all of these limitations fully abandoned.
You're right, Bob, about European pacifism post-WW1, which I knew about very well but wasn't focused on, which is strange because I have listened to all of Churchill's prewar and wartime speeches, where he was begging the US "give us the arms and we'll do the fighting" and lamenting the Chamberlains and others who were doing the ostrich routine (head firmly implanted in sand). My theory was always that they took the "war to end all wars" phrase literally. Of course like everyone who studies American history, I'm aware of the pacifist movement in the US, popularized by folks like Lindbergh.
I like your term "pacifist sloth." Entirely descriptive, and time for the fantasy to be revealed for what it is. I hope Europeans remember the lessons of their pre-WW2 mistakes before it's too late, and recognize that responsibility for their defense primarily rests with them, not with the US.
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The war continues, drones and missiles continue to fly on both sides of the front and far beyond its borders. Ukrainian drones occasionally hit military factories in russia, and sometimes even reach Moscow.
https://gazeta.ua/articles/np/_bpla-atakuvali-moskvu-i-lipeck-v-mistah-chuli-vibuhi/1213633
https://www.dw.com/ru/drony-atakovali-edinstvennyj-v-rossii-optovolokonnyj-zavod/a-72147746
russian drones and missiles arrive in much larger numbers, but the media only report on the destruction of infrastructure and hits on residential buildings and offices. Kharkiv, Dnipro and Kropyvnytsky are getting the most. Dozens of civilians were killed, including children, and hundreds were injured.
https://tsn.ua/ato/ataka-droniv-na-kharkiv-pid-zavalamy-mozut-buty-zahybli-liudy-2801189.html
https://inforesist.org/ua/ih-vbyla-rosiya-zyavylysya-foto-ditej-yaki-zagynuly-vnaslidok-obstrilu-kryvogo-rogu/
Today, it was almost impossible to sleep all night because of the sounds of explosions and the work of air defense. In Kyiv, there was even an attack by ballistic missiles.
https://bigkyiv.com.ua/rankova-ataka-na-kyyiv-naslidky-balistychnogo-udaru/
However, the carriers of these missiles are gradually failing due to wear and tear and age.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cde27d3xxjdo?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
So far we can talk about the slow advance of the russians, but still the inability of each side to gain a decisive advantage.
Western media is slowly revealing America's covert role in Ukrainian military operations against the invading russian army. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/29/world/europe/us-ukraine-military-war-wiesbaden.html
Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, on the other hand, believes that society should be ready to learn the truth about the war in Ukraine only over time. https://gordonua.com/ukr/news/military-actions/znati-pravdu-ukrajintsjam-pro-vijnu-treba-zhodom-zaraz-tse-zajve-budanov-1738649.html
People respond to such trust from the authorities with an unwillingness to fight for it. People again beat back another man who was trying to be forcibly mobilized by the mobilization center employees. https://sud.ua/uk/news/video/327319-vo-lvove-grazhdanskie-pytalis-otbit-muzhchinu-u-ttsk-travmirovav-voennosluzhaschego-video
Poland has transferred another 5,000 Starlink terminals to Ukraine. They will provide stable communication for the military and critical infrastructure. https://uatv.ua/uk/shhe-5-tys-terminaliv-starlink-peredala-ukrayini-polshha-mintsyfry/
European assistance remains important, but it is American weapons that remain critically important and no one can be sure of them now. US Patriot missile batteries in S. Korea to be temporarily deployed to Middle East https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10457906
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Wlad,
Grateful to read your post this afternoon (6Apr2025) and know you are okay. Too many days . .
The nazis are causing amazing destruction on/in my country. There is no feeling of security and it's slowly dawning on most Americans that we are in great peril.
My slumlord has raised rent again and I now must try to figure out how/where I can afford to exist.
Cat's are all doing well and some day, I think the storms will finish with us for a while!
I wish you and your family well and will keep monitoring this thread.
73
Jaye
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Wlad, thanks for the link to the NYT article. Im a subscriber but overlooked it somehow.
My recollection is that some of the information became public not long after the fact, but this is the first comprehensive and detailed press report I’ve seen.
So much waste from political decisions overriding professional military men in the army. Also many missed opportunities because the US did not provide long range weapons earlier when they could have made a tremendous difference.
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Hi Jaye and Bob!
I think the US is in for a tough time, hang in there!
The trade war with the whole world probably has no analogues in history. China is raising tariffs in response and it no longer looks like a game of who blinks first, but rather who falls first. Will the winner get everything or will they become a victim of those who take advantage of such an unusual situation? In any case, it is obvious that a new world order is coming, and it depends on the leaders of countries what place they will take in it.
Victoria Spartz's interview in The Telegraf caused a great resonance in Ukraine and a sharp reaction from the authorities. The headline in The Telegraf stated: Ukraine’s first US congresswoman: Zelensky must cede land to russia. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/04/07/victoria-spartz-interview-republican-ukraine-war/
Congresswoman Spartz issued the following statement to clarify her current position on Ukraine, which I consider necessary to quote in full:
“It’s not surprising that the UK media is as dishonest as the US mainstream media, so let me set the record straight,” Spartz said. “I spent an enormous amount of energy trying to help the Ukrainian military to win their brutal fight against russia. Unfortunately, if you have morons and crooks like Zelensky and his puppet parliament running your country, it’s a lost cause. putin might be evil, but he is not a moron. The current reality on the ground is that Ukraine is not in the position to retake its territories, nor could they agree to give them up permanently. Therefore, only a temporary solution with the help of the United States can be achieved, which will give each side some time to regroup. The end result of that war will have to be decided later and not just on a battlefield.”
https://spartz.house.gov/media/press-releases/spartz-lasting-peace-ukraine-not-possible-now-ceasefire-needed
A discussion is underway on social media around the new Ukrainian history textbook for grade 11, specifically the section of modern history on the russian-Ukrainian war. Teachers, parents, and public activists are criticizing the authors for presenting events in a light favorable to the authorities. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cx2w0nxywd7o
I haven't read that book and I can't say anything except that history textbooks have always reflected a point of view favorable to the current government, and to understand the situation, you need to read much more than one school textbook.
russian and US officials will hold fresh talks in Turkey’s Istanbul on April 10, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday. russia’s ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiyev, will lead Moscow’s delegation, while US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Sonata Coulter will head the negotiators from Washington, the state-run Tass news service reported. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-08/kremlin-says-new-russia-us-talks-planned-in-turkey-on-april-10
Oleksandr Fedienko, a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence, explained that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which opposed the draft law on demobilization prepared by the Ministry of Defense, will not write and submit its own draft. Therefore, there is no hope for demobilization for soldiers, some of whom have survived since 2022 and continue to serve. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/shcho-bude-z-rozroblenim-minoboroni-zakonoproyektom-pro-demobilizaciyu-novini-ukrajini-50504584.html
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky stated that the russian offensive on the Sumy and Kharkiv regions has actually already begun. According to him, we are already observing an almost doubling of the number of enemy offensive actions in all main directions.
https://www.unian.ua/war/nastup-rf-viyskiy-ekspert-pro-masshtabni-ataki-rosiyan-na-riznih-napryamkah-12971730.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
Right now, an active political struggle for power is unfolding in the largest city in Ukraine. The actors are the long-time mayor of the capital, Vitaliy Klitschko, and the recently appointed head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, Timur Tkachenko, appointed by Zelensky. He explains his interference in the city's economic activities and local government issues by the need to protect it, he denies participating in the political struggle, and he refused to answer uncomfortable questions about the organization of the work of the air defense. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c367wnnz754o
It was slightly frosty again and even snowing, so I felt so bad yesterday due to the change in weather and pressure that I decided to stay home today. Tomorrow is the first meeting at 8:00 and I need to have time to recover.
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Hi Jaye and Bob!
I think the US is in for a tough time, hang in there!
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Congresswoman Spartz issued the following statement to clarify her current position on Ukraine, which I consider necessary to quote in full:
“It’s not surprising that the UK media is as dishonest as the US mainstream media, so let me set the record straight,” Spartz said. “I spent an enormous amount of energy trying to help the Ukrainian military to win their brutal fight against russia. Unfortunately, if you have morons and crooks like Zelensky and his puppet parliament running your country, it’s a lost cause. putin might be evil, but he is not a moron. The current reality on the ground is that Ukraine is not in the position to retake its territories, nor could they agree to give them up permanently. Therefore, only a temporary solution with the help of the United States can be achieved, which will give each side some time to regroup. The end result of that war will have to be decided later and not just on a battlefield.”
https://spartz.house.gov/media/press-releases/spartz-lasting-peace-ukraine-not-possible-now-ceasefire-
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I haven't read that book and I can't say anything except that history textbooks have always reflected a point of view favorable to the current government, and to understand the situation, you need to read much more than one school textbook.
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It was slightly frosty again and even snowing, so I felt so bad yesterday due to the change in weather and pressure that I decided to stay home today. Tomorrow is the first meeting at 8:00 and I need to have time to recover.
—- Thanks, nobody knows what to expect from one moment to the next here.
—- Well stated, and seems accurate. [Unfortunately.] Whether the US will broker a successful temporary settlement remains to be seen. I am not hopeful given the naivety and appalling favoritism shown by the US negotiators toward Russia.
—- Here also we sometimes have interesting situations with school textbooks. The publishers try to satisfy the marketplace but there are often many disagreements between the largest customers, liberal California and conservative Texas on how to accurately describe history and what events to emphasize. It’s easier with soft textbooks read on notebooks since they are much easier to make in different versions, but not every child has a notebook computer.
—-I hope you get rest and feel better soon!
(Sorry about the format of this reply, I was having difficulties with my tablet)
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In three days the weather changed from snow and 0C to sun and +20C and together with everything else led to the fact that the pressure rose sharply at night and the pills did not help immediately. My heart ached until I fell asleep closer to the morning, but I did not hear the drone attack at around 5 am. In three districts of Kyiv there were hits on various objects, destruction and victims.
https://vechirniy.kyiv.ua/news/111061/
A new meeting of Ukraine's allies in the Ramstein format was held in Brussels. Despite concerns, the US Secretary of Defense was still present - albeit via video link. The allies talked about whether it was possible to strengthen Ukraine's air defense, and the Estonian Defense Minister said that russia would like to agree on peace by May 9. That will mark the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II, which Moscow usually celebrates on a particularly large scale, with an emphasis on the victims and the USSR's contribution to this victory. The dates are very important for the Kremlin and it is probably trying to get some kind of agreement by that date, some kind of ceasefire or whatever.
British Defense Secretary John Healy said allies had pledged 21 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine.
Although Europe is taking the lead from the United States in providing Kyiv with defense support, the United States remains a "major partner."
At a press conference in Brussels, German Defense Minister Pistorius commented on Ukraine's request for additional air defense systems, including American Patriots.
One journalist said that Volodymyr Zelensky had asked allies for 10 additional air defense systems. In response, Pistorius said that the Ukrainian president had talked about one additional system by the summer of this year, but Berlin would not be able to help with that.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cj9e3zmrd7jo
Ukraine's experience with German weapons has been mixed. Hardly any large-scale equipment is "fully suitable for war." There are major problems with modern large-scale equipment, according to an internal Bundeswehr document obtained by NDR, WDR, and Süddeutsche Zeitung. The paper addresses eight weapon systems that Germany has provided to Ukraine. According to the paper, the Panzerhaubitze 2000 (self-propelled howitzer) has "such a high technical vulnerability that its suitability for war is seriously questioned." The Leopard 1A5 main battle tank, while considered "reliable," is "often used only as makeshift artillery due to its weak armor." The newer Leopard 2A6 requires high maintenance costs, and field repairs, i.e., repairs at the front, are often not possible.
The IRIS-T air defense system is very effective, but the price of the ammunition is too high, and these "are not available in the necessary quantities." The PATRIOT air defense system is also fundamentally an "excellent weapon system," but "unsuitable for combat use because the carrier vehicle is too old and the manufacturer can no longer supply spare parts." According to the minutes, the military attaché's conclusion sounds somewhat sobering: "Hardly any large German piece of equipment is fully suitable for war." The conclusion is also: "Complex equipment remains unused (...) The operational value of highly modern and complex large-scale equipment is low if troops cannot carry out repairs on site."
https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/ruestungsgueter-deutschland-bundeswehr-ukraine-100.html
President Trump's diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to russia and met President Vladimir putin yesterday. This was the third meeting between Witkoff and Putin as Trump pushes for a ceasefire in the war between russia and Ukraine. Ahead of Witkoff's meeting with putin, Trump wrote on his Truth Social account: "russia has to get moving. Too many people are DYING, thousands a week, in a terrible and senseless war - A war that should have never happened, and wouldn't have happened, if I were President!!!"
Trump has become frustrated that negotiations haven't made much progress in recent weeks, and said at one point that he was "pissed off" about comments putin had made on Ukraine.
If no ceasefire is reached by the end of the month, Trump could move forward with additional sanctions on russia either through executive power or by asking Congress to pass new sanctions legislation, a source familiar with the issue told Axios. https://www.axios.com/2025/04/11/russia-witkoff-putin-meeting-ukraine-trump
Less than 48 hours after dining with a negotiator sent by russian President Vladimir putin in Washington last week, Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy leading talks with Moscow, sat down with President Donald Trump in the White House and delivered a clear message. The fastest way to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine, said Witkoff, was to support a strategy that would give russia ownership of four eastern Ukrainian regions it attempted to annex illegally in 2022, two U.S. officials and five people familiar with the situation told Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-envoys-embrace-russian-demands-worries-republicans-us-allies-2025-04-11/
Trump envoy's embrace of russian demands worries Republicans, U.S. allies, but I am more worried that there are people in the world who shake hands with one of the greatest criminals against humanity of our time. I cannot imagine that someone from the administration of the US President would shake hands with Osama bin Laden, whose terrorist activities caused far less damage and casualties.
U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink intends to resign from her post early. "Ambassador Brink is stepping down. She's been the ambassador there for three years – that's a long time in a war zone. And frankly, the war has gone on for far too long," a State Department spokesperson said in a statement. "The real issue is whether the russians and Ukrainians are ready to do what's necessary to end this war."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bridget-brink-ambassador-to-ukraine-to-resign-sources/
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Wlad, still reading your posts but I have little to add. They are so much more detailed and factual than what passes for "news" over here. Another reminder of why I mostly listen to foreign news services.
My only comment on your last post is that I feel we probably would have had little choice but to shake hands with Osama bin Laden, if he had possessed 6,000 nuclear warheads and the means to deliver them. I think that explains the difference.
Be well my friend.
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Thanks Braden!
Information is hard to find even here. Facts are hidden in a lot of garbage and even "reliable" sources sometimes spread fakes. Some events are more important than they seem and indicate something that will happen soon. I have learned that continuity of observation is also important. If something happens "unexpectedly", it only means that we have missed something from what preceded the unexpected.
At the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, Ukraine officially established diplomatic relations with Somalia. A remarkable victory for Ukrainian diplomacy... https://sud.ua/uk/news/abroad/328103-ukraina-ofitsialno-ustanovila-diplomaticheskie-otnosheniya-s-somali-sibiga-podpisal-dokument
The next winter will not be easy: the shelling caused enormous destruction in the energy sector, said the CEO of DTEK Energy. According to him, last year the company's thermal power plants were subjected to 10 powerful attacks, as a result of which 90% of the generating capacity was damaged or destroyed. Despite this, thanks to the coordinated work of the energy workers, it was possible to quickly restore more than half of the lost equipment before the beginning of winter. However, new shelling in November and December 2024 caused additional damage to the already restored facilities. https://thepage.ua/ua/news/90percent-potuzhnostej-zrujnovano-yak-dtek-trimaye-udar
I think Ukraine survived the winter without blackouts exclusively in warm weather, but no one knows what the next winter will be like.
Trump weighed in on ongoing talks with russia and Ukraine, one day after Witkoff met with russian President Vladimir putin for more than four hours. “I think Ukraine-russia might be going OK. And you’re going to be finding out pretty soon. You know, there’s a point at which you have to either put up or shut up. We’ll see what happens, but I think it’s going fine,” he said. https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-presidency-tariffs-iran-04-12-25#cm9eunsaf00053b6t8q429raz
President Duda says Trump best chance for Ukraine peace. As for negotiations with Vladimir putin, President Duda is sure that Donald Trump has the measure of the russian leader, while refusing to be drawn on the competencies of his chief negotiator Steve Witkoff who landed on Friday in Moscow for further talks with Vladimir putin - a man Mr Witkoff has described as "trustworthy" and "not a bad guy". "If anyone is able to force the end of Russia's war, it is most likely only the President of the United States," he says. "The question is whether he will be determined enough to do that in a way - because it is also very important here in Europe being a neighbour of russian aggression against Ukraine - that the peace is fair and lasting." https://news.sky.com/story/president-duda-says-trump-best-chance-for-ukraine-peace-and-urges-allies-to-stay-calm-over-tariffs-shock-therapy-13346892
President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, clarified his comments in an interview with The Times on April 11, in which he suggested that Ukraine could be divided into separate zones as part of a peace deal with russia. Kellogg proposed creating a “pacification force” led by Britain and France in western Ukraine and concentrating Ukrainian troops east of the Dnieper River, where a demilitarized zone would also be created near the current line of control. The territories currently under occupation would be controlled by russian forces. “You could make it look like what happened to Berlin after World War II, where you had a russian zone, a French zone, and a British zone, a U.S. zone,” he said.
Later, in a post on X, Kellogg explained that his comments had been misrepresented.
“I was talking about a post-ceasefire deterrence force to support Ukrainian sovereignty. "In discussions about division, I was referring to areas or zones of responsibility of allied forces (excluding U.S. troops)," Kellogg said. "I was NOT referring to the division of Ukraine." https://mind.ua/news/20287803-kellog-poyasniv-shcho-vin-mav-na-uvazi-pid-rozdiliti-ukrayinu-yak-pislyavoennu-nimechchinu-pislya-mirnoyi-ug
ISW analyzes the changes in the front lines of the russian-Ukrainian war. The report for April 13 indicates that the enemy has advanced in several directions, but Ukrainian forces have also had success. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-12-2025
On Saturday, April 12, 26-year-old pilot Pavlo Ivanov died while performing a combat mission on an F-16 aircraft, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/328198-vo-vremya-vypolneniya-boevogo-zadaniya-na-samolete-f-16-pogib-pilot-pavel-ivanov
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The weather seems to have stabilized and this is the first night in a long time that I have not woken up and I do not have any pain. The sun is shining outside, but due to forced and often illegal mobilization, if you don't have the proper documents, being on the streets is quite dangerous.
But it was mobilization that became a tool for exempting top corrupt officials from criminal liability. On April 9, it became known that the former Head of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine Roman Nasirov, who is accused of allegedly receiving a bribe of $17 million, voluntarily mobilized into the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On that day, he did not appear for a hearing before the High Anti-Corruption Court.
But before the discussion about Roman Nasirov's voluntary mobilization had subsided during the criminal proceedings, the former tax official was no longer serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The commander of the unit where Nasirov was supposed to serve recognized the order as illegal and canceled it.
Roman Nasirov's defense did not officially comment on the situation with the failed mobilization. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c24qqmrq3n9o
In March of this year, the Supreme Court published an explanation, from which it really followed that if a conscript was called up for military service during mobilization, then this process cannot be canceled. However, later the judge-speaker of the the Supreme Court, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, published a position on this legal situation. He said that such a court decision is not exemplary, that is, it is incorrect to say that those mobilized in violation of the mobilization procedure should remain at the front.
In another case, the Administrative Court of Appeals recognized that the decision to call up a reserved person was unlawful, but it was impossible to release him from military service by canceling the call-up order, because this was not provided for by law. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/328055-reshenie-ttsk-o-prizyve-zabronirovannogo-yavlyaetsya-protivopravnym-no-uvolit-s-voennoy-sluzhby-putem-otmeny-prikaza-o-prizyve-nevozmozhno-poskolku-eto-ne-predusmotreno-zakonodatelstvom-apellyatsionnyy-adminsud
Another court disagreed with the Supreme Court's position that illegal mobilization in violation of the medical examination procedure is not a reason for dismissal from military service, concluding that illegal actions cannot have legitimate consequences. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/328051-sud-vyrazil-nesoglasie-s-pozitsiey-verkhovnogo-suda-chto-nezakonnaya-mobilizatsiya-s-narusheniem-poryadka-prokhozhdeniya-vlk-ne-yavlyaetsya-osnovaniem-dlya-uvolneniya-s-voennoy-sluzhby-protivopravnye-deystviya-ne-mogut-vyzyvat-pravomernykh-posledstviy
Thus, in Ukraine, the chaos in mobilization, caused by imperfect legislation, corruption, and violation of the law by civil servants responsible for mobilization, is further aggravated by contradictory judicial practice.
The successful exchange of prisoners of war directly depends on the availability of an exchange fund, and it is the lack of this resource that is one of the main challenges for the return of Ukrainian defenders, said the representative of the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, Oleg Slobodyanyk. https://gordonua.com/ukr/news/war/v-ukrajini-nedostatnij-obminnij-fond-shchob-povernuti-vsikh-polonenikh-predstavnik-koordinatsijnoho-shtabu-1739217.html
That is, it turns out that there are more Ukrainian prisoners of war than russians, despite propaganda statements that russian soldiers were surrendering en masse, and Ukrainian losses were minimal.
Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa said that a lot of applications for military service under the "18-24" program have been received, but fewer than 500 people have signed contracts so far.
Even before Trump's inauguration, American officials and representatives of NATO countries urged Ukraine to lower the mobilization age to 18, as it needs manpower on the front lines. Zelensky rejected such requests and later announced a one-year "Contract 18-24", which can be signed by young men aged 18 to 24. Among the conditions: one million hryvnias, an interest-free mortgage and a social package. The contract provides exclusively for combat positions, including rifleman, grenade launcher and scout. The training will last more than 80 days. Young men who serve in the army and are not 25 years old can also receive the money.
https://suspilne.media/993565-kontrakt-18-24-v-ofisi-prezidenta-nazvali-kilkist-pidpisanih-ugod-na-sluzbu-u-zsu/
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Another air alert this morning ended with ballistic missiles hitting Sumy. At least 34 people have been killed and 117 people are injured, including 15 children. Unless the missile was successfully "spoofed", or there was a failure in the guidance system, what the weapon struck is highly likely to have been its intended target. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cd02zgrd3nnt
Among the millions of photos and videos of civilian victims of the strike in Sumy shared in the media and social networks, the post of People's Deputy Mariana Bezuglaya, who stated that the russians carried out the ballistic strike on April 13 due to a line-up for awarding the military, went almost unnoticed. She also reminded that no one has been punished for previous cases. For example, after the tragedy with the awarding in the 128th brigade, no one has yet been charged with suspicion. https://censor.net/ua/n3546547
Unfortunately, she has always been right about such things in the past. I think we'll find out the truth pretty quickly in this case.
European leaders strongly condemned the strike, but it is unlikely to change anything.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cd02zgrd3nnt?post=asset%3A9eb7cf0e-12ee-4152-84cc-221630125304#post
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Today is a beautiful and sad day at the same time. Today my son celebrates his 20th birthday, but for the third year in a row we can’t do it together.
But we continue our fight against everyone and everything. When I talk to my family, friends, and colleagues, I deal with strong people, but from time to time I see ordinary people who are defenseless against the emotional swings that reality throws at them.
Yesterday when I was getting my hair cut, a hairdresser with tears in her eyes told me what impression she had on the footage of the aftermath of the missile attack on Sumy. Sometimes it seems to me that I am no longer capable of such emotions and I can’t imagine how I can live with such sensitivity to everything.
Maybe because over the years of working as a lawyer, I have become accustomed to not taking other people’s problems to heart. This prevents me from analyzing the situation dispassionately and drawing the right conclusions.
And I have doubts that the russians spent two ballistic missiles on a strike on civilians. They are scoundrels, but rational. Perhaps civilians became collateral victims.
On April 13, after the russian strike on Sumy, Konotop Mayor Artem Semenikhin accused the head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration, Volodymyr Artyukh, of organizing a military gathering for an award ceremony in the city center. The head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration, Volodymyr Artyukh, responded that he was not the initiator of the military award ceremony that took place in Sumy on April 13 during the russian ballistic missile attack, and that he was only invited there.
https://suspilne.media/sumy/994659-moei-iniciativi-ne-bulo-golova-sumskoi-ova-pro-zvinuvacenna-sodo-organizacii-nagorodzenna-vijskovih/?utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps&fbclid=IwY2xjawJqFCJleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHlu0cNE56EbTQC9EltZHsDSaiECWJJ0FvRKhekr9qpFx9AGRSD3DmcZuqIKz_aem_3zR6bX8KOeiYMbgzD-xE1w
The Berdychiv District Military Administration also reported that the former deputy brigade commander of the 26th artillery brigade, the commander of the military unit, Yuriy Yula, was killed in yesterday's strike on Sumy, but later deleted this information.
https://www.unian.ua/society/u-sumah-pri-udari-rosiyan-zaginuv-polkovnik-zsu-yuriy-yula-12976434.html
The russian Ministry of Defense has released its version of the strike on Sumy. They allegedly struck a meeting of the command staff of the Ukrainian operational-tactical group "North", as a result of which 60 soldiers died, but this information cannot be verified.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ckgxd8kl6vvo
Unfortunately, missile strikes on Sumy continue every day.
Everyone hates the russians so much for ballistic missile strikes on peaceful cities, but the fact that the authorities passed a law and Ukrainians personally will pay a billion dollars for russian reactors, in fact financing strikes on peaceful cities with their own money, does not bother anyone. On March 13, Zelensky signed a law on the purchase of russian reactors in Bulgaria for the Khmelnytsky NPP. https://minfin.com.ua/ua/2025/03/14/147051698/
Some say that the start-up of these reactors is impossible without russians and their additional equipment. So think about why this is being done ...
For the fourth year in a row, the state budget of Ukraine has been running a huge deficit due to the war, which will reach about 20% of GDP in 2025. Almost all of this deficit will be compensated by international partners, who annually allocate tens of billions of dollars in grants and loans to Ukraine.
But in 2026, the situation will most likely change for the worse. According to IMF estimates, with budget needs at the level of $24 billion, Ukraine will be able to attract about $11 billion from partners in 2026. The Ukrainian authorities will seek the remaining funds to fill the state budget in the national economy, mobilizing all possible resources.
The Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy, People's Deputy Danylo Hetmantsev said that the main source of income is planned to be an increase in tax pressure on small businesses and entrepreneurs. https://mind.ua/publications/20287681-golova-finansovo-podatkovogo-komitetu-vr-nam-potribno-vichaviti-vse-z-detinizaciyi-yaka-zdatna-prine
But as history shows, increasing taxes and impoverishing the population usually leads to revolutions and changes in power. Meanwhile, Trump once again reminded us of his attitude towards it.
US President Donald Trump criticized the CBS program "60 Minutes", which Volodymyr Zelensky gave an interview to. He stated this on his social network Truth Social. Trump threatened CBS News and Paramount with responsibility for the spread of "fake news". The US President said that the channel "got out of control" and must "pay a big price" for his persecution. https://sud.ua/uk/news/abroad/328306-donald-tramp-podverg-kritike-programmu-60-minutes-na-kanale-cbs-posle-vykhoda-intervyu-vladimira-zelenskogo
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The US has told Group of Seven allies it won’t endorse a statement condemning russia’s deadliest attack on Ukraine this year because it wants to keep negotiations with Moscow on track. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/us-derails-g-7-condemnation-of-russian-missile-strike-on-ukraine?srnd=homepage-europe
Trump calls Sumy missile strike a ‘mistake.’ But russia’s war seems to be raging on exactly to putin’s plan. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/14/europe/ukraine-sumy-trump-russia-intl/index.html
Vladimir putin, Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky are responsible for the start of the russian-Ukrainian war, Donald Trump said during a meeting at the White House with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele.
At the same time, Trump, responding to Zelensky's offer to sell Ukraine ten Patriot air defense systems, hinted that this is what Ukraine should have thought when it "started a war" against russia. These statements by Trump shocked many Ukrainians and sparked a wave of posts on social networks from experts and journalists criticizing the US president.
Trump's statements were made in the presence of journalists. One of them asked the US president to clarify what he meant when he called the russian missile strike on the city of Sumy a "mistake". Donald Trump explained that "it was a mistake to allow the war to start."
At the same time, Trump admitted that putin was primarily to blame.
"Let's say putin is number one. Biden, who had no idea what he's doing, number two. And Zelensky. And all I can do is try to stop it. I want to stop the murders. And I think we're doing a good job of that. I think you're going to have good proposals soon," Trump concluded.
Answering questions from the press, the US leader confirmed that he had set a "deadline" for russia to cease fire. Again, he did not give an exact date. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1k4zgjwxpko
US special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News that the Ukraine deal would cover "five territories," without specifying what exactly. "This peace deal covers the so-called five territories, but it's much broader. It includes security protocols, questions about NATO - will it be there or not, whether Article 5 of NATO is in effect. So there's a lot of detail." He gave no further details, but russia has consistently insisted that its seizure of parts of Ukraine since 2014, including Crimea, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk regions, must be recognized in the deal. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ce843l3vp1no
It's very nice when Ukrainian territories are called so-called territories, as if they are nobody's territory.
The Director of the russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, stated that "provocateur countries" represented by Poland and the Baltic states must understand that they will be the first to suffer as a result of possible NATO aggression against the Union State of russia and Belarus. https://tass.ru/politika/23686375
russia’s use of one-way attack uninhabited aerial vehicles (OWA-UAVs) in Ukraine intensified during the latter months of 2024 and has shown little sign of slowing in 2025. Ukrainian Air Force figures show that since June 2024, there has been a month-on-month increase in OWA-UAV attacks, with 2,300 launched in November 2024 and 2,696 in January 2025. This growth has been enabled by russia’s ability to increase local production of a version of the Iranian Shahed 136 OWA-UAV. https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2025/04/russia-doubles-down-on-the-shahed/
Someone is making more shaheeds, and someone is mobilizing more. I see the number of sentences for evasion is growing, new prisons need to be built. Will Europe help with money for this?
It seems that the EU's plan is to support the war and Zelensky, promising a lot of money and weapons (but actually giving less than the necessary minimum for defense) on the condition that Ukrainians will die in the war, maybe they will even bring it to the "Paraguayan version" (but they will take the smart ones to themselves, this is capital) if the Ukrainians allow it. After that, with rthe wounded and desecrated territory, with millions of disabled people with PTSD and simply people with mental disorders and war trauma, they can "give in" to putin (russia) - let them fuck with it as much as they can, it won't strengthen russia either.
During this time, improve their defenses and renegotiate, on a new one, with the same putin about good neighborliness and trade. And since the American missile defense system will be out of Europe, the russian Federation will have fewer reasons not to agree.
And since the American missile defense system will be out of Europe, the russian Federation will have fewer reasons not to agree.
And yes ... Europe doesn't care whether Ukraine will be on the new map.
Trump Republicans want (they voice the plan out loud) to end the war and have an official colony, with a population that will work for the benefit of the US (and a little of their own, if they steal less).
Everyone knows what putin wants. The question of what the Ukrainians want is open ... they have different opinions and plans.
Bulgaria has refused to sell two russian reactors from the Belene nuclear power plant to the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant. The country's Deputy Prime Minister Atanas Zafirov explained this decision by saying that Bulgaria needs to develop nuclear energy, especially given the rise in electricity prices in the world. https://btvnovinite.bg/bulgaria/liderat-na-bsp-reaktorite-za-aec-belne-njama-da-badat-prodavani.html
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"But we continue our fight against everyone and everything."
I'm afraid that statement seems very understandable and objectively true. Who wouldn't feel that way in the situation you're in, along with your countrymen?
I increasingly get the impression that no one knows how to end this war. Trump found out that dangling an economic carrot in front of Putin, wasn't going to work, because he wants Ukraine and won't settle for anything less. Yet the US can't give Ukraine the tools to escalate it without risking nuclear war, something that both Trump and Biden seemed to agree on - and being outside of the daily security briefings, I'm in no position to second-guess their assessment.
It seems like something big is going to need to happen to break the stalemate, although I don't know what that would be. Continuing to pray for a miracle of peace.
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I appreciate what Ray Dalio did and wrote and am currently reading one of his books - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail. In fact, Ukraine is only a small part of a large process of establishing a new world order that will change the entire world. Billionaire Ray Dalio says President Donald Trump’s tariff war has helped push America close to a recession — or perhaps even “something worse.” “Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.” https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/14/business/ray-dalio-recession-trump-tariffs-intl/index.html
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Ray Dalio has been saying these things for years and of course he's right. The US has a huge spending and debt problem. No politician has a plan to address it, because in a democracy you can't address spending and get re-elected. I am less optimistic than Dalio because I am worried about something worse than a recession, whether current short-term policy decisions are handled correctly or not.
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There’s certainly no way to end the war on terms even partly acceptable to Ukraine without full and unwavering American support of Ukraine and of NATO against Russia. This is extremely unlikely to happen under Trump.
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Ray Dalio has been saying these things for years and of course he's right. The US has a huge spending and debt problem. No politician has a plan to address it, because in a democracy you can't address spending and get re-elected. I am less optimistic than Dalio because I am worried about something worse than a recession, whether current short-term policy decisions are handled correctly or not.
I agree entirely that the budget situation is unsustainable in the future - given current and projected revenue and spending. It’s also politically risky to address revenue, even if it’s nothing more than enforcement to collect legally owed taxes from cheaters.
I anticipate a recession because of the tariffs and their uncertainty, and because of other indicators.
Nobody ever escapes the laws of physics or economics.
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Nobody ever escapes the laws of physics or economics.
The world has gone crazy because it already takes a Supreme Court decision to prove that a woman is a woman by virtue of biology. The UK Supreme Court has unanimously and unambiguously backed the argument that the definition of a woman in the Equality Act should be based on biological sex. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqx4z2ln2j3o
A small victory for common sense, which you can't say about Ukraine.
The Verkhovna Rada on Wednesday, April 16, extended martial law and mobilization in Ukraine until August 9. Only one deputy from the "European Solidarity" Oleksiy Honcharenko voted against this. He is a very controversial figure, but he tried to draw attention to very important things. He explained that he considers it necessary to first praise the law on establishing clear terms of military service. The deputy believes that such a norm would allow the release from the front of fighters who have been fighting for four years, and in return would help mobilize new recruits who would join the Armed Forces of Ukraine, knowing the term of service.
"Don't tell me about patriotism. Patriotism is the preservation of the state. And clear terms of service are precisely the preservation of the state," Honcharenko noted.
Co-chair of the "EU" faction Iryna Gerashchenko added that "the authorities are beginning to abuse martial law."
"The authorities are starting to abuse martial law to strengthen the dictatorship, this is also true. And we are talking about it publicly," she emphasized.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cpvrlrmzjmjo
Some soldiers say that as soon as the war is over, they will come and overthrow the government, which brought all this to pass. But they said the same thing 10 years ago during the Anti-Terrorist Operation, as the war was called then. That they would return and hang the corrupt. The reality turned out to be a little different. This time it will be the same. Especially since there is already a whole army of police and others who are trained to protect the regime. If those people with weapons in their hands allowed themselves and their people to be turned into slaves, then even more so they will not do anything without weapons. Plus, we must admit that the system works quite intelligently. It directs the indignation of the military against civilians. That is, it is not the corrupt authorities, not the incompetent military leadership, who are to blame, but the civilians, the same evaders, refugees. The idea with the evaders was brilliant. It allowed to conduct business on blood without the risks of resistance.
During the strike on the night of April 17 on the city of Dnipro, a child was killed, several parts of the city were on fire, educational buildings were damaged, and cars were burned. https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/702507-ataka-shahediv-na-dnipro-zrosla-kilkist-zagiblih-palali-gurtozhitki-ta-avto-dsns-foto?utm_source=ukrnet_news
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that new Russian strikes on the country’s territory are possible on Easter and beyond. https://www.unian.ua/society/zelenskiy-poperediv-pro-zagrozu-na-velikden-12980700.html
People with a good memory ask why in 2022 he did the opposite, calling people to celebrate and have barbecues, instead of evacuating from the border areas, knowing in detail about the russian plans to attack Ukraine.
Nevertheless, although not for everyone, life goes on, and Ukraine still continues to exist and resist.
The Ukrainian economy is showing signs of financial growth. Total corporate income has increased by a third, and profits have almost doubled, according to state statistics. Thus, the total profit before tax increased to 1.22 trillion hryvnias, which is almost 60% more than in 2023, when the profit was 776.4 billion hryvnias.
The net profit of the business amounted to 947.3 billion hryvnias. At the same time, the losses of enterprises reached 273.3 billion hryvnias - this is slightly more than a year earlier.
The share of loss-making companies in the structure remained noticeable - 22.1%, which is 0.9% more than in 2023.
https://24tv.ua/business/pributki-ukrayinskogo-biznesu-zrostayut-dohid-agrosektoru-promislovosti_n2799940
I have no way to verify these numbers and compare them in a comprehensive analysis, so I will simply congratulate the state and its statistics.
"Trump’s Ukraine ceasefire is slipping away. The American president increasingly looks like russia’s willing dupe" under such an eloquent title, the Economist article was published. https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/04/15/trumps-ukraine-ceasefire-is-slipping-away
Perhaps Trump's diplomacy consists precisely in negotiating with everyone at the same time.
Minister of Economy and First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko stated that Ukraine and the United States will soon formalize an agreement on economic partnership and the creation of an investment fund for the recovery of Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cy5r0wv4g95o
russia has asked the US to let it buy Boeing Co. aircraft using money from billions of dollars in frozen state assets once there’s a ceasefire in Ukraine, according to a person in Moscow familiar with the matter.
While the request isn’t a condition of agreeing to a truce, russia understands that frozen funds can’t be used to buy the jets without a ceasefire being in place, the person said, asking not to be identified discussing internal matters. A deal allowing the purchase of jets could form part of an easing of sanctions in the event there’s a halt to the fighting. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/russia-seeks-to-buy-boeing-jets-with-frozen-assets-after-ukraine-ceasefire
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At least the UK Supreme Court put an end to one type of insanity.
Other forms of insanity are still around. Such as your point that only one member of the Verkovna Rada has the sense and courage to object to the military service time and conscription situation. Then there is the insanity of what is claimed to be peace negotiations.
Finally the insanity of the world-wide tariff disruptions to trade and commerce pursued by the administration of my own country, which added 10% to the cost of goods imported from Ukraine to the US, though most in Europe were hit with 20%, some more. Then there are the astronomical tariffs on China and similar retaliatory measures toward the US that will greatly raise the cost of many things, especially rare earth minerals which may be in extremely short supply.
Well. That is now. Nobody knows what they might be tomorrow.
I note that the substantial US tariffs on the automobile industry and imports of materials important to them, armaments and aircraft producers such as aluminum, steel, and semiconductors will increase the cost to provide US weapons to Ukraine, and other countries (far higher costs and short supply of rare earths is also a very worrisome factor).
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According to the BBC, US Secretary of State Rubio said yesterday in regard to peace talks:
"We're not going to continue with this endeavour for weeks and months on end," Rubio said, adding that the US had "other priorities to focus on".
Also "We need to determine very quickly now - and I'm talking about a matter of days - whether or not this is doable" in the short-term. "If it's not going to happen, then we're just going to move on," he said about truce talks.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20x5xn1g92o
Apparently a major war in Europe that threatens stability on the continent, and for which the US has already spent around 180 billion dollars, is actually an unimportant issue. /s
Which party does this pressure? Obviously it’s Ukraine. Russia is currently in the superior position and has been delaying progress, and Putin will not stop pursuing his dream of imperial expansion. Ukraine also has delayed but because of the outrageous and punitive price that Trump demands in minerals and pipeline revenues to negotiate peace, and in hopes of securing more assistance from Europe.
To me it’s clear that Trump sees this situation not in terms of security for Europe and the US, or in human terms of peace vs. war, or in terms of even a little justice, but rather as a three party business transaction where the US (he) must soon walk away with a chunk of money for the US’s (his) trouble.
I believe that if he can’t, he will stop the negotiations, withdraw US support for Ukraine, and loudly blame Zelensky and Ukraine. Someone else is always to blame, of course.
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The United States is optimistic it can put an end to the war between russia and Ukraine, Vice President JD Vance said on Friday as he met Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni for the second time in 24 hours.
"Since there are the negotiations I won't prejudge them, but we do feel optimistic that we can hopefully bring this war, this very brutal war, to a close," he added.
Hours earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had said U.S. President Donald Trump would walk away from trying to broker a russia-Ukraine peace deal within days unless there were clear signs that a deal could be done. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-vice-president-says-he-is-optimistic-russia-ukraine-war-can-be-ended-2025-04-18/
The US presented allies with proposals to enable a peace deal between russia and Ukraine, including an outline of terms to end the fighting and ease sanctions on Moscow in the event of a lasting ceasefire. The contours of the US plan was shared during meetings in Paris on Thursday, according to European officials familiar with the matter.
The proposal would effectively freeze the war, with Ukrainian territories now occupied by russia remaining under Moscow’s control, said the people. Kyiv’s aspirations of joining NATO would also be off the table. The people declined to provide further specifics, citing the confidential nature of the discussions.
The Paris talks included a meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and US envoy Steve Witkoff, as well as discussions among Rubio and national security advisers and negotiators from France, Germany, the UK and Ukraine. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-18/war-in-ukraine-us-offers-to-ease-sanctions-on-russia-as-part-of-peace-plan
The US President's Special Representative for the Middle East Steve Witkoff discussed issues related to Ukrainian territories with russian President Vladimir putin during his recent visit to russia. This is reported by The Wall Street Journal. In a conversation with WSJ, Witkoff confirmed that the russian dictator was "obsessed" with the topic of Ukrainian territories. The American special representative suggested that russia "may get some of the regions", but not all. According to him, Ukraine "may worry less about some regions" if they are russian-speaking. Commenting on this, the WSJ notes that Witkoff's position may contradict Washington's official line, which involves supporting the territorial integrity of Ukraine. https://www.wsj.com/world/a-guide-to-the-five-regions-of-ukraine-at-the-center-of-u-s-russia-talks-429e0d54
Ukrainians living under occupation fear Trump’s peace talks because they still hope for liberation from the occupation. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/13/world/ukraine-life-under-russian-occupation-trumps-peace-talks/index.html
russia and Ukraine will carry out a new prisoner swap tomorrow, mediated by the United Arab Emirates, a source has said. The source told Reuters that nearly 500 russian and Ukrainian prisoners and 46 injured soldiers will be exchanged in the latest swap. The exchange will involve 246 prisoners from each side, the source said. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-trump-putin-zelenskyy-rubio-russia-moscow-kyiv-latest-12541713?postid=9456017#liveblog-body
Anton Serbin, an officer of the 104th brigade of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, spoke about the consequences of the russian Federation's missile attacks on military enterprises in Shostka, Sumy region. According to him, local factories that produced Ukrainian ammunition were destroyed due to russian strikes. One of the strikes on Shostka took place on December 31, 2024, when two factories were attacked by 13 russian ballistic missiles, Le Monde reported. https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2025/04/09/a-chostka-dans-le-nord-de-l-ukraine-les-innovations-des-dronistes-aident-l-armee-a-tenir_6593200_3210.html
The russian missile strike on Sumy on April 13 was indeed aimed at a ceremonial award ceremony for soldiers from the 117th Brigade, but instead the victims were almost exclusively civilians. This was told in an interview with The Washington Post by a Ukrainian soldier named Oleksandr. According to him, the ceremony for awarding medals to soldiers was held in the basement of a university building. However, the russian missiles did not reach the Ukrainian soldiers stationed in the underground building. Instead, the victims were civilians who were on the surface. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/16/ukraine-russia-sumy-missiles-strike/
The worst prophecies of cyberpunk and dystopia seem to have begun to come true. From now on, the police in Ukraine will use drones to monitor and cgase after citizens. Police say drones equipped with powerful cameras will monitor the situation in the city from a bird's eye view. https://zp.npu.gov.ua/news/pravoporiadok-z-neba-u-zaporizhzhi-rozpochynaie-robotu-politseeskyi-aeropatrul-video
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I hope that Vance is correct and there will be a peace agreement very soon, even if flawed and temporary, as it may be. I don’t see how Ukraine can continue in the present circumstances, both external and internal, for much longer.
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I echo Bob's last sentiment. A shaky peace is better than no peace, because things can change over the course of a few years.
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I have watched Benjamin the famous YouTube guy "Bald and Bankrupt" for many years. He recently returned to eastern Ukraine (non combat areas) to film one of his reports. It's very interesting and one of the few on the ground reports available that can be understood by English speakers. https://youtu.be/O3HRnwC6pso?si=Qi0skTsPVR6dcB8I
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His comparison with what he saw before is interesting. It reminded me of when I first saw the consequences of the russian shelling in 2014 in the east. At the time, it was a shock for me and changed my attitude to many things. But the point of view of a tourist will always be the point of view of a tourist. A foreign passport and the temporary nature of his stay allow him to simply not notice many things that actually make up the lives of local residents. Nevertheless, one cannot help but notice the expressions on the faces of ordinary Ukrainians and those who remained in this unfortunate country. For contrast, he should have gone to the western regions.
This year, for the first time in a decade, Orthodox and Catholics celebrate Easter on the same day. Easter is dedicated to the miraculous resurrection of Jesus after his execution on the cross. This holiday is considered the most important and joyful in the church calendar. Christians of all denominations gather with their families to celebrate the holiday. Unfortunately, millions of Ukrainians will not be able to do this again this year.
The good news is that 277 Ukrainian soldiers have been released from russian captivity. No one knows how many thousands or tens of thousands are still in captivity. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-zvilnennia-277-ukrainskyh-polonenyh/33390166.html
Last month the Trump administration proposed the idea of a 30-day comprehensive ceasefire. Ukraine agreed. russia did not. Or rather, it came up with a long list of conditions. Instead of 30 days, the Kremlin decided on 30 hours. On Saturday, President Vladimir putin announced a unilateral Easter truce in Ukraine until midnight Sunday night in Moscow. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy70vj2eejzo
I don't know if anyone in Ukraine believed it or if it was said solely for Trump as proof of agreement to cooperate with him, but there were no major air strikes that night. Fighting on the front continued as usual.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused russia of creating an "impression" of a ceasefire while still taking military actions in some places in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c787v5gxny7o
According to the Vugledar tactical group, the captured russians reported that the russian command had given the occupiers the task of reaching the administrative border between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions by May 9. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/04/19/novyna/bezpeka/rosiyanam-nakazaly-9-travnya-vyjty-dnipropetrovskoyi-oblasti-vijskovi
The sun is shining outside and the weather is great, people around are celebrating the holiday with their families, but I don't feel like a part of it all.
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On the night of April 21, the russian military attacked regions of Ukraine with 96 drones and three missiles of various types, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported. It was possible to shoot down 42 Shahed drones and other types in the north, south, east and center of the country. Another 47 enemy drones-simulators disappeared from radar (lost in location), without causing any negative consequences. https://t.me/kpszsu/32912
On the eve of Easter, russian President Vladimir putin said he had ordered a "cease of all hostilities" from 6:00 p.m. on April 19 to 12:00 a.m. on April 21.
The President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, expressed hope that the aggressor country russia and Ukraine "will conclude an agreement this week" and "start doing business with the United States." He wrote about this on his Truth Social social network.
"Hopefully russia and Ukraine will make a deal this week. Both will then start to do big business with the United States of America, which is thriving and make a fortune," Trump wrote. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114372126396548824
Ukraine is under pressure to respond this week to a series of far-reaching Trump administration ideas for how to end the war in Ukraine by granting concessions to russia, including potential U.S. recognition of russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and excluding Kyiv from joining NATO. https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/kyiv-is-on-the-clock-to-respond-to-trump-plan-to-end-ukraine-conflict-f3538799
The Kharkiv District Court found a man guilty of providing information about the positions of his unit to the russian military after mobilization. He was sentenced to 15 years in prison with confiscation of property.
The man tried to illegally leave Ukraine across the border with Moldova six times between January and April 2024. However, he was detained by border guards each time.
After the last escape attempt, the man was mobilized into the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In court, he said that he met a russian military man on the Internet who promised to help him go abroad if he performed certain tasks. The man provided the russians with information about the locations of his unit, equipment, and personal data of servicemen.
In August 2024, he sent nine voice messages to the enemy, informing about the location of military units, ammunition, and equipment, as well as violations in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He sent the last message while receiving treatment in Kharkiv. https://internetua.com/csolovik-shist-raziv-tikav-za-kordon-a-pislya-mobilizaciyi-zdavav-poziciyi-zsu-vorogu-sxo-virishiv-sud?utm_source=ukrnet_news
I wonder what the benefit is to the state from such a policy of mobilizing those who do not want to serve? It is obvious that at best they will run away, and at worst they will do harm like this man. And now the state will spend taxpayers' money on him for another 15 years.
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“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.”
Ralph Waldo Emerson
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I subscribe to Geopolitical Futures, I thought this provided some useful insights. https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-trump-putin-negotiations/?tpa=YjkxMTBkMDY0ZDQ3ZTQwY2VjYjhjZTE3NDYxMTQ2MTVjYjc5MTU&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Fgeopoliticalfutures.com%2Fthe-trump-putin-negotiations%2F%3Ftpa%3DYjkxMTBkMDY0ZDQ3ZTQwY2VjYjhjZTE3NDYxMTQ2MTVjYjc5MTU&utm_content&utm_campaign=PAID%20-%20Everything%20as%20it%27s%20published
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Hi Braden!
Actually George didn't say anything new or definitive.
Ukraine and its European allies will be meeting with top U.S. officials in London on Wednesday to discuss the proposals, which may not sit well with Kyiv. U.S. proposes recognizing Crimea as russian and freeze the war’s front lines as part of a peace agreement as peace talks ramp up, writes The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/22/ukraine-russia-rubio-london-crimea-peace-deal/
russian President Vladimir putin has appeared open to bilateral talks with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky. Speaking on russian state television on Monday night, April 21, putin said that russia has “always been positive about any peace initiatives. We hope that the representatives of the Kyiv regime will be the same.”
According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, putin’s comments indicate a willingness to hold direct talks with Ukraine, including on not striking civilian targets.
Zelensky did not respond directly to putin’s comments, but said the country was “ready for any conversation” that would guarantee the safety of civilians.
Meanwhile, the night in Ukraine was not calm - Odesa experienced a major attack by russian drones. According to the city authorities, three people were injured, fires broke out, as a result, houses, an educational institution, and cars were damaged.
As of nine in the morning, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that 38 drones had been shot down across the country. And on the morning of April 22, an attack on Zaporizhia claimed the life of one person, local authorities report. In total, more than twenty victims are currently known, including four children.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/czrv42x5yjyo
In russia, in the Vladimir region, explosions were heard at the 51st GRAU arsenal on April 22. Locals report a fireball and a column of smoke. The 51st GRAU arsenal is one of the largest ammunition depots of the russian Ministry of Defense. According to preliminary data, approximately 105 thousand tons of ammunition are stored there: artillery shells, missiles for MLRS, air defense system components, tactical missiles of the "Tochka-U" type. The distance from the extreme point of the border of Ukraine and russia to the arsenal is more than 500 kilometers. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/rosiyi-vibuhnuv-odin-naybilshih-skladiv-boepripasiv-1745331352.html
The deputies propose not to consider the loss of personnel and the temporary loss of certain territories of the state a crime under certain conditions. Thus, it will be difficult to hold the commanders who allowed this to happen accountable. This is a very ambiguous initiative before the possible signing of an agreement with russia, as a result of which Ukraine may lose significant territories. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/329021-poteryu-lichnogo-sostava-i-vremennuyu-utratu-otdelnykh-territoriy-gosudarstva-deputaty-predlagayut-ne-schitat-prestupleniem-pri-opredelennykh-usloviyakh
After a lull at Easter, man hunters became active again...
I recently heard that some businesses are forced to pay about $1,000 per month per person in corruption schemes so that their employees are reserved from mobilization. You can imagine how much money would work for the economy of Ukraine, and not go into the pockets of corrupt officials...
They say that the percentage of shadow wages in Ukraine increased after the military levy was increased. https://finance.novyny.live/v-ukrayini-zrosli-tinovi-zarplati-ekonomist-nazvav-prichinu-248832.html
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Hi Wlad. I'm sure that what George said is probably well known to people in Ukraine, since their focus is primarily news related to Ukraine. For people in the US, where news related to Ukraine is now page three or four in the newspapers (online, these days), we typically don't get exposure to this detailed information unless we go looking for it. I think that probably explains the difference in perspective as to how much value he adds. Hope all is going well with you.
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Braden, thank you! You reminded me that even in Ukraine, a fairly small number of people are trying to understand what is happening without limiting themselves to propaganda or social media as a source not even of information, but of opinion.
The pace of diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine is quickening. In recent days, there have been various leaks about the latest US ideas, the status and veracity of which is disputed among diplomats.
But there seems to be a framework along the following lines: russia would halt its invasion along current lines, and would give up its ambition to control the remaining parts of the four regions of eastern Ukraine it has yet to occupy, namely Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. In return, the US would accept the four occupied territories de facto as russian controlled.
It would also recognise Crimea – which was annexed illegally by russia in 2014 – as de jure russian territory. The US would also ensure Ukraine ruled out joining Nato.
President Zelensky has already made it clear Ukraine would never concede that Crimea is russian sovereignty.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70znjwezd4o
US Vice-President JD Vance said his country would "walk away" unless Ukraine and russia agree on a deal, echoing recent comments from US officials.
His warning came after London talks between officials from the UK, France, Germany, Ukraine and the US aimed at securing a ceasefire were downgraded after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff pulled out.
The US is focused on talks this week in Moscow, where Witkoff will meet russian President Vladimir putin for the fourth time, as the pace of diplomacy to end the war quickens.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, said he insisted on "an immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire". https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78jx68d922o
In the context of reduced funding and weapons supplies, if we drag out a little longer, there will be not 4, but 6 regions on the table.
With funding and arms supplies dwindling, if we drag it out a little longer, there will be 6 regions on the table instead of 4. But it now reminds me of the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972, when the US finally reversed its position, recognized the communist regime in China, and agreed to cooperate with it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Communiqu%C3%A9
Therefore, now the US can agree on cooperation with russia and decide the fate of Ukraine without Ukraine. Zelensky can deny reality and indulge in wishful thinking as much as he wants, but this will only make the situation worse.
P.S.
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Wlad, I'm sure it's very frustrating to Ukrainians to think of the "major powers" deciding Ukraine's borders and future. But as you imply (and I said a couple of years ago during one of the stalemate periods), those who are supplying the arms will be the ones who decide when the war stops. There really is no way to avoid that, in my opinion.
At this point I believe Zelensky is a stumbling block to peace, as he seems to offer nothing other than resolve (to put it less positively, stubbornness). His lack of experience in negotiations seems quite apparent. I don't know to what degree other motives such as corruption may be influencing his stubbornness.
I read today where Russia has run an enormous budget deficit, much more than expected, due to the low price of oil and other factors. So I do think Russia has some reason to settle for four territories.
Continuing to pray for the killing to stop!
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Actually, I don't think the problem is Zelensky. When management leads a company to bankruptcy, it is the owner's responsibility to change management in time. If the owner doesn't react, he loses the company. And management goes to another company with pockets full of money. Especially when he acts in concert with competitors.
While Zelensky was quite far from Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-zelenskiy-lands-south-africa-talks-ties-peace-efforts-2025-04-24/ (by the way, South Africa is one of the few countries that has a visa-free regime with russia), russia launched one of the largest missile strikes on Kyiv in the last year.
Moscow sent 70 missiles and 145 drones toward Ukraine, mainly targeting Kyiv, tonight. At least 12 people died in the strikes with 90 injured, according to Ukraine’s emergency services, and more casualties may be trapped under rubble. The emergency services said Moscow’s assault struck 13 locations in Kyiv, including residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/24/europe/russia-strikes-kyiv-trump-zelensky-crimea-intl-hnk/index.html
“I am not happy with the russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the Peace Deal DONE!” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday.
I don't know which Vladimir Trump was referring to, but they're not going to stop.
Although many missiles and drones were shot down literally above my head, their remains did not fall on my house. A short prayer of thanksgiving and I slept for a couple of hours before waking up for the first meeting. Today I felt bad and stayed home. But there was so much work that I sent the last letter only at 9 pm. On the other hand, it was distracting as always. While some people destroy their psyche on social networks and then spend money on psychologists, I earn money by spending time on more useful things and save on psychologists.
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The owners of the company are Ukrainian voters. But they haven't been allowed to have a board meeting lately.
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“I am not happy with the russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the Peace Deal DONE!” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday.
I don't know which Vladimir Trump was referring to, but they're not going to stop.
Vladimir should heed this strongly worded complaint. Otherwise he might be subjected to something far more terrifying such as “STOP! PRETTY PLEASE WITH SUGAR ON TOP!”
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Ah, yes, the Art of the Deal. Amusing reading for Xi, especially now that China stated there are no tariff negotiations taking place directly contradicting assertions by Trump, who has already unilaterally declared that tariffs on China will be lowered after hearing dire predictions from American business CEOs.
“Never interrupt an enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself”. (Attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte)
Speaking of deals, Trump was asked by a reporter what concessions Russia is giving in the peace negotiations. Answer:
“Stopping the war, stopping from taking the whole country, pretty big concession.”
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5265907-trump-russia-ukraine-peace/
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The owners of the company are Ukrainian voters. But they haven't been allowed to have a board meeting lately.
I disagree, they chose their own management in 2019.
Unfortunately, I've been so busy at work lately that I barely have time to follow how intensively the fate of Ukraine is being decided this week.
Speaking to reporters before flying to Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis, Trump says the US and russia are close to reaching a deal, while special envoy Steve Witkoff meets Vladimir putin in Moscow. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cvg7jnywn5dt?post=asset%3A0b638eb3-7dee-42a1-b245-4445d2384567#post
The meeting between Putin and Witkoff lasted three hours and was constructive - says Putin aide Yuri Ushakov, who attended the meeting. Among other issues, they discussed the possibility of direct talks between russia and Ukraine, he says. The talks have brought russia's and US positions closer not just on Ukraine but other issues as well, Ukashov says, adding that productive dialogue between russia and the US will continue on various levels. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cvg7jnywn5dt?post=asset%3A9993e106-1ef8-444e-9710-74c584c422bd#post
Multiple russian sources say General Yaroslav Moskalik, deputy head of the main operational department at the russian General Staff, has been killed in a car bomb attack in Moscow. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cvg7jnywn5dt?post=asset%3Abaa220c2-a788-46e5-aef1-f89154271d8e#post
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has blamed Ukraine for this. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cvg7jnywn5dt?post=asset%3A898f7ede-8094-42fd-ae28-e7eafe5eac17#post
Earlier, US President Donald Trump criticized Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky's statements that Ukraine would not recognize the annexation of Crimea.
"No one is asking Zelensky to recognize Crimea as russian territory, but if he wants Crimea, why wasn't it fought for 11 years ago when it was handed over to the russian Federation without a single shot being fired?" Donald Trump wrote on his social network Truth Social. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114388111141848447
Ukrainian President Zelensky says Crimea belongs to Ukraine, following comments from US President Trump who said "Crimea will stay with russia", in an interview with Time.
"Our position is unchanged: only the Ukrainian people have the right to decide which territories are Ukrainian," Zelensky tells reporters in Kyiv. "The constitution of Ukraine says that all the temporarily occupied territories... belong to Ukraine, to the Ukrainian people."
The mayor of Ukraine's capital Kyiv says the country might have to give up some of its territory, albeit temporarily, in order to secure a peace agreement with Moscow. "One of the scenarios is to give up territory," he tells BBC Radio 4's Anna Foster. "It's not fair. But for the peace, temporary peace, maybe it can be a solution." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp348ygjgy3o
Later he seeks to 'clarify' earlier remarks on conceding territory. "It is very regrettable that, as we can see, this scenario is quite possible. A lot of world politicians and media are talking about it today," Vitali Klitschko says on Telegram. "In the interview, I stressed that the Ukrainian people will not accept russian occupation of their country." He says territorial concessions contradict Ukraine's national interests, and Ukraine must fight against them "until the very end". Klitschko says this will require "extraordinary efforts" from Ukraine and European partners, but doesn't mention the US. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cvg7jnywn5dt?post=asset%3A0e0ae979-10aa-48af-8b57-d5ab22ab355e#post
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that US President Donald Trump is a leader in the issue of peace talks between Ukraine and russia and it is thanks to his efforts that the "deadlock" has been overcome. Mark Rutte said this on the Fox News channel. https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1915747523358060798
We are witnessing something that seemed impossible just a few months ago, and it is not directly related to hostilities. The US and russia have become partners and are directly negotiating, and top Ukrainian politicians are already agreeing on almost everything, prudently shifting responsibility to the people. And only Europe seems not to be going to take the initiative and continues to follow the USA.
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Today I woke up because of the noise and for some reason I thought that the neighbors were continuing to do repairs. But since today is Saturday I decided to sleep a little longer. When I finally woke up, it turned out that it was an air raid and the work of the air defense.
I decided to listen to the radio and heard a Japanese station. Then I made the QSO with it, then with the Chinese one and the cherry on the cake - the Australian answered me. This lifted my spirits and I was even more pleasantly surprised when a Japanese radio amateur joined our usual communication in Zoom with Colin and two other guys from Ukraine. Two and a half hours flew by unnoticed and I hope we will see him again. The great power of radio brings together completely different people from different countries and cultures, and life is not enough to discuss everything that interests us. Provided that you speak at least one common language, of course.
Since visiting Japan has been a long-standing dream of my daughter and I, I shared my impressions of the meeting with her. She started learning Spanish and recently asked her teacher how many languages she knew. Four, including Polish, the teacher replied. Katya said that she also knew four languages, including Polish.
After lunch, I took part in the UK-EI DX Contest, as its organizers are one of the few who do not accept russians.
A grandiose show was made of the Pope's Francis funeral, but many famous people used it as an occasion for a meeting. It was the first face-to-face encounter between Trump and Zelensky since a disastrous White House meeting in February, when the president and other US officials publicly berated Zelensky for being insufficiently grateful for US support and briefly suspended arms shipments and intelligence sharing. US President Donald Trump questioned whether russian President Vladimir putin wants a peace deal shortly after meeting with Zelensky.
In a Truth Social post sent as he returned from Rome after the meeting, Trump raised the prospect of applying new sanctions on russia after its assault on Kyiv last week, questioning whether putin is interested in peace.
“There was no reason for putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days,” Trump wrote. “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!” https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/26/europe/zelensky-trump-talks-pope-funeral-intl/index.html
Just before US President Donald Trump has said russia and Ukraine "are very close to a deal", hours after his envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks in Moscow.
Trump said it had been a "good day" of negotiations, while the Kremlin described the talks - which Ukraine was not present at - as "constructive".
Earlier, Trump said on social media that "most of the major points are agreed to," and urged russia and Ukraine to meet "at very high levels" and "to finish it [the deal] off". https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dj4402qejo
Trump seems to be trying to hide his true intentions with chaos, and Zelensky is constantly trying to anger him, blaming the US for one thing and then another.
In an interview with American journalist Ben Shapiro, Zelensky said, "If putin wins, it will mean the defeat of the United States as a country that leads the world." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvSq2mxAPk0
"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that the missile fired by russia over Kyiv on the night of April 24, which hit a residential building, killing 12 people, was manufactured in North Korea. The missile that killed the people of Kyiv contained at least 116 components imported from other countries, and most of them, unfortunately, were manufactured by American companies," Zelensky wrote in a telegram. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-udar-rf-kyiv-raketa-kndr/33396841.html
It would be funny if the fate of my country didn't depend on it.
Ukraine has failed to reach an agreement with investors to restructure its debt under GDP warrants with a group of creditors, including hedge funds Aurelius Capital Management LP and VR Capital Group. The debt is worth $2.6 billion, the FT writes, citing a statement from the Ukrainian government on the Euronext exchange. The FT noted that Kyiv is due to make a payment of about $600 million next month. https://www.ft.com/content/2b77e33f-1b48-445f-a6e0-cdf2e1a26d28
Ukraine has fully covered its external financing needs for 2025 and is ready for various economic challenges. This was largely made possible by budget support from Ukraine's partners, which this year amounts to $16.8 billion. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko announced this at a meeting of the G7 financial bloc, which took place in Washington during the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-glavnaya/analytics-and-forecasts/ukraina-povnistyu-zakrila-potrebu-u-finansuvanni-zzovni-v-uryadi-poyasnili-de-vzyali-groshi.htm
Most likely, this does not apply to military spending, but the reduction in aid by almost half indicates a decrease in funding for the social sphere and the state apparatus (probably all except the power bloc). Now the poor can start begging, and civil servants can collect donations for their services. For example, you have to go to court with your own paper and envelopes, despite the court fee paid.
But the new economic outlook for Ukraine, presented by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is based on the assumption that the war will end by the end of 2025. This is stated in the April World Economic Outlook report.
The document states that as a result of the end of hostilities, a partial return of Ukrainian refugees to their homeland is expected, which will contribute to population growth.
In addition, the IMF expects a gradual decrease in the unemployment rate in Ukraine as a result of the end of the war. The report also predicts a significant increase in Ukraine's gross domestic product. In 2025, GDP could exceed $200 billion, and in 2030 - approach $284 billion.
www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025
France has recognized the 2018 decision of the Arbitration Tribunal on the claim of JSC Oschadbank against the russian Federation for over $1.11 billion, which concerned compensation for losses resulting from russia's illegal expropriation of Oschadbank's assets in Crimea following russia's illegal invasion and occupation of that sovereign territory of Ukraine. Oschadbank registered an arrest of russian assets in France worth around €87 million. https://trueua.info/news/ukrayinskyy-bank-domihsya-areshtu-u-frantsiyi-rosiyskykh-aktyviv-na-sumu-87-mln-yevro
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russia launched about 100 drones into Ukraine last night. A child was killed in a drone attack in northern Dnipropetrovsk region, and a recreation center was damaged in Kyiv.
The russian military reported shooting down 40 Ukrainian drones. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3v9y0wy1l6o
Again, I heard nothing.
russian President Vladimir putin has announced a temporary ceasefire for the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin said the ceasefire would run from the morning of 8 May until 11 May - which coincides with victory celebrations to mark the end of World War Two. In a statement on Monday, the Kremlin said putin declared the ceasefire "based on humanitarian considerations". https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62j1848509o
In response, the Ukrainians and Americans suggested not to wait and stop the war now. Of course, it's ridiculous to first attack another country, destroy it, and kill a lot of people, and then declare a ceasefire for humanitarian reasons. But this proves once again that there is no point in talking to the russians. They only understand force.
russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that putin's proposal for a "truce" on May 8-10 is supposedly "the start of direct negotiations with Ukraine without preconditions." https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/329691-lavrov-nazval-predlozhenie-putina-o-peremirii-nachalom-pryamykh-peregovorov
Meanwhile, the russians are building serious fortifications in the east, which suggests certain thoughts. Perhaps they have information about a possible offensive by the Ukrainian army, which could really gather large reserves. But this reminds me of the situation with the unsuccessful counteroffensive in 2023, when similar fortifications built by the russians in the south stopped and inflicted heavy losses on the Ukrainians. Or perhaps they are really preparing to stop and switch to a deaf defense, fixing the front line.
An extraordinary event occurred in Europe - the power grids of Spain and Portugal, and partially the connected networks of France, were completely turned off. These countries and their inhabitants were not prepared for this and there is still no clear answer as to what actually caused this. Try to convince me that the russians had nothing to do with this.
The Ukrainian authorities continue to persecute the opposition. After Zelensky imposed sanctions on former President Poroshenko, the National Bank of Ukraine on April 28 recognized the business reputation of the fifth President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, as not impeccable. This could harm the bank he owns. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4g2ynjz885o
Personally, I wonder why Poroshenko keeps fighting. With his money and at his age, I would have long forgotten about politics and vacationed abroad at resorts with my grandchildren.
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I learned that many people don't want to deal with Amazon, so I put my first book on Kobo - https://www.kobo.com/us/en/ebook/war-diaries-a-radio-amateur-in-kyiv?sId=ab35e4e7-932a-45aa-870c-8b918aa49dfc (https://www.kobo.com/us/en/ebook/war-diaries-a-radio-amateur-in-kyiv?sId=ab35e4e7-932a-45aa-870c-8b918aa49dfc)
Ukraine uses aviation mainly for air defense, but even then it sometimes loses planes. Recently, the Air Force lost a Su-27 fighter jet while repelling a russian attack with strike drones. Some say it was "friendly fire." https://expres.online/podrobitsi/zsu-vtratili-vinishchuvach-su-27-yak-tse-moglo-statisya
At the "coalition of the willing" discussions, Britain has proposed assembling 64,000 peacekeepers for Ukraine, but other countries consider even a 25,000-strong contingent a difficult task, The Times writes. Poland, Spain and Italy are refusing to send their soldiers at all. https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/europe-uk-peacekeeping-troops-ukraine-6tp2cfgg5
However, in Ukraine, too, there are few people willing to serve in the army.
The Ukrainian Parliament extended the possibility of voluntary return of servicemen who left a military unit for the first time - until August 30, 2025. For the first time, the law on "decriminalization of unauthorized abandonment of a military unit" came into force at the end of November 2024. It was then that servicemen who left a unit without permission were allowed to return to service under a simplified procedure - without trial and with the restoration of benefits. Then the return period was limited to January 1, 2025, but after some time it was extended to March 1.
In January-March 2025 alone, 44.5 thousand servicemen left the unit without permission, and another seven thousand deserted.
For the entire year of 2024, the Prosecutor General's Office opened 62.5 thousand cases of unauthorized abandonment of a military unit and 22.3 thousand cases of desertion. The number of voluntary desertions from a military unit in 2024 increased almost threefold compared to 2023. Conflict with the command, missing service terms, fatigue (those who voluntarily went to defend Ukraine in 2022, for example, have been at the front for 38 months), and difficulty transferring to another unit are among the common reasons for voluntary desertion from a military unit.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c9345nv7lgko
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Ukraine and the US have signed a much-anticipated natural resources deal, after months of tense negotiations. The White House says the the "partnership represents the United States taking an economic stake in securing a free, peaceful and sovereign future for Ukraine". Ukraine minerals deal is largely symbolic – but that’s enough for Donald Trump. The symbolism was, however, largely the point. Trump needed to feel America was getting something back from Kyiv. Ukraine needed to show its relationship with this White House was functional and improving. Ukraine’s allies needed this done and dusted to remove a distraction from the complex talk of military aid and real peace that must now become their focus.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/01/world/ukraine-minerals-deal-us-trump-analysis-intl
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yg456mzn8o
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ypw7pn9q3o
Previously, Donald Trump spoke about a deal where Ukraine would repay all the billions of dollars in aid and military support it has received over the last three years. That's not the case with this deal. Instead, it will set up a joint investment fund to help Ukraine pay for future military and humanitarian aid, as well as reconstruction efforts once the war is over. This isn’t a peace deal - there aren’t any explicit security guarantees from the Americans for Ukraine in this agreement.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c20zj5l4jpdt?post=asset%3Af06554f3-9b38-498a-ba57-42a940765fad
There are millions of opinions of commentators of varying levels of incompetence on the Internet, and I don’t want to be one of them. There is a lot of interesting information in the text of the agreement, which the Cabinet of Ministers very quickly published in Ukrainian https://drive.google.com/file/d/1K1owc3G2fP0UZRhDR0z7yLaWf9jZCJsO/view?pli=1 , but it seems to me that the most interesting is contained in the additional protocols that were not shown to us. In any case, I did not see joy and sincere smiles on the faces of the representatives of Ukraine who signed the agreement, which suggests that everything is not as good as the official propaganda is trying to show. Well, time will tell what real consequences will follow.
There is a chasm between the positions of Ukraine and the russian Federation, we will be negotiating peace for the next 100 days, said US Vice President Vance in the interview with Fox News Digital. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/vance-previews-trump-plans-juice-economy-end-russia-ukraine-war-next-100-days
As peace talks slow, the Trump White House approved its first $50M arms exports to Ukraine through direct commercial sales to Kyiv. The permission – the first of its kind since Trump returned to the White House over 100 days ago – comes just weeks after the administration paused all Ukraine-related military aid for review, emphasizing a new priority: leveraging US influence to end the conflict through diplomacy rather than prolonged military support.
Congress, in its last aid package for Ukraine, had approved over $1 billion worth of arms for Ukraine under the previous US administration of President Joe Biden. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/51800
After another drone attack on Kyiv, there were reports that they could be dropping explosives in the form of cluster munitions that explode later. I'm just wondering why russian terrorists haven't used such insidious tactics for so long. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c2ew0kxl371o
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All I can say about the US-Ukraine deal, as published to date, is that it could have been worse. More devils will be in the details.
I expect it will take many years to extract commercially significant amounts of minerals under the agreement assuming peace comes soon. This allows a lot of time for Trump to change his mind about helping Ukraine, even if it was only in a transactional way. I could see him claim that Ukraine isn’t delivering so there’s no point in supporting her any more. Putin will be playing many tricks and dangling many appealing carrots in front of him.
Sure, Trump is a “great” negotiator when the other party has little choice. Time will tell how he and his amateur boys fare against Russia’s well seasoned team when Putin has only modest motivation to agree to anything (and when Trump likes Putin and wants to do more “business” with Russia).
By setting a schedule of 100 days, Trump has effectively allowed further Russian aggression until at least then. Exactly what has been achieved in months of discussions already? Apparently not much, which is unsurprising.
As for the $50 million direct purchase by Ukraine from suppliers: That sum is a drop in the bucket for major items like air defense systems or even replacement missiles. My guess is that it was only a modest amount of small arms and ammunition. Apparently the Arsenal of Democracy has been replaced by a little hardware store that accepts only cash transactions.
Cynical? Yes - and I would be very pleased to be proven wrong.
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The funny thing is that it seems that even the deputies will not know the content of the entire text of the agreement and its annexes during the vote for its ratification. But in a country where the legitimacy of all power has long been in question, this is not important.
Sometimes I get the impression that the legal profession and lawyers remain the last defenders of people's rights and freedoms, but there are almost no tools left for this.
In the Odessa region, on April 29, an accident occurred involving a police officer who hit a 7-year-old girl at a pedestrian crossing. After the accident, the child's father came to the district police station to find out the details, but he was mobilized there. Then the man was taken to a mobilization center, where he had a hypertensive crisis. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/330019-v-odesskoy-oblasti-politseyskaya-sbila-rebenka-a-ottsa-zabrali-v-ttsk-gde-u-nego-proizoshel-gipertonicheskiy-kriz
The Kyiv City Mobilization Center commented on the video and information shared online, which shows a conscript in ties chained to various objects.
"At the assembly point, he began to behave inappropriately and aggressively towards other mobilized people. The Kyiv Municipal Guard, which is involved in maintaining order, was forced to put restraints on this mobilized person to protect others from his actions and called a police squad," the mobilization center said. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/330010-voennoobyazan-byl-v-styazhkakh-i-prikovan-k-raznym-predmetam-kievskiy-ttsk-obyasnil-intsident
In both cases, it is impossible to hear the other side for obvious reasons. But those who work poorly for the system are also dealt with quickly.
Employees of the State Bureau of Investigation have completed a pre-trial investigation into the head of the Cherkasy Mobilization Center. The investigation believes that the official is subject to punishment for failure to fulfill the mobilization plan. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/330020-rukovoditelya-cherkasskogo-ttsk-budut-sudit-za-nevypolnenie-mobilizatsionnogo-plana
The Supreme Court of Ukraine has decided not to apply the ECHR case law in the context of conscientious objection to military service, according to which under no circumstances can a conscientious objector be forced to carry or use weapons, even for the self-defense of the country. The Supreme Court noted that Ukraine has introduced alternatives to military service in peacetime, and Ukrainian citizens can freely use them, but in wartime the duty to protect Ukraine falls on all Ukrainian citizens, regardless of their religion. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/329899-verkhovnyy-sud-vyskazalsya-ob-otkaze-ot-voennoy-sluzhby-po-religioznym-ubezhdeniyam-obyazannost-zaschischat-ukrainu-vozlagaetsya-na-vsekh-grazhdan-nezavisimo-ot-veroispovedaniya
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Another tough week and the usual way to switch off from work on Saturday is to turn on the radio and chat on Zoom with Colin and others. Today we had a Japanese and an Italian joined us, which delayed the meeting by 2.5 hours.
I definitely need to slow down, because I'm feeling bad due to the heavy workload and the weather changes again. But there's so much I want to do...
Leaders from 19 countries have confirmed their participation in the parade in Moscow on May 9, when russians celebrate the day they believe they won World War II:
President of the self-proclaimed Abkhazia, Badra Gunba;
President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Heydar Aliyev;
Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan;
Self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko;
President of Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva;
President of Burkina Faso, Ibrahim Traoré;
Unrecognized President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro;
Former President of Vietnam, Tho Lam;
President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev;
President of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov;
President of China, Xi Jinping;
President of Cuba, Miguel Diaz-Canel;
President of Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas;
President of Serbia, Aleksandr Vučić;
Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik;
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico;
Tajik President Emomali Rahmon;
Turkmenistan President Serdar Berdimuhamedov;
Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev;
Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh;
South African Defense Minister Angelina Mochekga.
Israeli Ambassador to the russian Federation Simone Halperin.
https://glavcom.ua/world/world-politics/parad-na-9-travnja-opriljudneno-povnij-spisok-krajin-jaki-prijidut-do-putina-1056613.html
Well, at least Trump won't be there.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called russian President Vladimir putin's initiative for a three-day ceasefire until May 9 a theatrical production and rejected putin's proposal. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cvgpr1xe1pro
Mohammad Zahoor is known as a British-Ukrainian investor of Pakistani origin, the founder and main owner of the ISTIL Group (International Steel & Tube Industries Limited), who has devoted more than 30 years to doing business in Ukraine, stating that "When a foreigner enters Ukraine with money, he has no problems. They appear after he has already invested."
"It turned out that there is no justice in Ukraine. If you win in the Supreme Court, it does not mean that you have won. After a while, all the harassment resumes. Moreover, it is not some criminal elements who start all this, but the state itself."
https://mind.ua/publications/20288495-mohammad-zahur-koli-inozemec-zahodit-v-ukrayinu-z-groshima-vin-ne-mae-zhodnih-problem-voni-zyavlya
The Ukrainian military has shot down a russian Su-30 fighter jet over the Black Sea with a drone. "This is the world's first destruction of a combat aircraft by a naval drone," the Main Intelligence Directorate said. The strike on the aircraft was carried out with a missile from a Magura unmanned maritime platform. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c62gyg57e2do
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Yes the law, lawyers and the courts are always the last bulwark of freedom in a democracy. It’s awful that the legislature and/or executive have acted so unconstitutionally. But most tragically, the courts have allowed it by degrees. I hope that when the war is over, or a least an armistice, there will be a return to a more normal and rights based rule of law. It will be difficult.
The situation of the father being detained for military service after rushing to see his daughter is awful. It reminds me a little of when a criminal goes to the police to complain about another criminal and is arrested himself, but in the father’s case the morality is reversed.
Is there not a provision for a conscientious objector to serve in the military but in a non-combat role? (I realize that a legal or regulatory provision and actual practice are probably two very different things now.)
I was relieved that nobody from the Trump administration was listed among the dignitaries to attend the Russian victory day celebrations. That I was concerned about it at all would have been unthinkable in the past.
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Yes the law, lawyers and the courts are always the last bulwark of freedom in a democracy. It’s awful that the legislature and/or executive have acted so unconstitutionally. But most tragically, the courts have allowed it by degrees. I hope that when the war is over, or a least an armistice, there will be a return to a more normal and rights based rule of law. It will be difficult.
The situation of the father being detained for military service after rushing to see his daughter is awful. It reminds me a little of when a criminal goes to the police to complain about another criminal and is arrested himself, but in the father’s case the morality is reversed.
Is there not a provision for a conscientious objector to serve in the military but in a non-combat role? (I realize that a legal or regulatory provision and actual practice are probably two very different things now.)
In Ukraine, even if someone is mobilized to a position in the rear or to shoot down drones, this does not mean that tomorrow they will not be transferred to storm enemy trenches.
As for those who were forcibly mobilized, even the military admits that they are of no use. If possible, they run away, and sometimes they even do harm.
Perhaps because of this, the russians quickly abandoned such "volunteers."
In total, almost 123,000 cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of military units have been registered in Ukraine. Some of them told their stories to Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/pl/ukraina-dlaczego-dezerterzy-wracaj%C4%85-na-front/a-72282865
The russian army shelled Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kharkiv region and other regions of Ukraine on the night of May 3-4.
In the capital, 11 people were injured, including 2 children, the State Emergency Service reported. There is damage in four districts of Kyiv.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cm253pqy92eo
Fortunately, nothing was damaged in my district, and I didn’t even pay attention to the explosions because I thought it was thunder.
russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine could have been stopped early if the United States and its allies had provided Ukraine with the weapons it needed from the start. Instead, former CIA director Ralph Goff told The Times, a deliberate strategy was employed to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needed to fight — but not enough to defeat Putin’s army.
“If we had provided the Ukrainians with the right weapons at the time, they could have driven the russians out of the country. That didn’t happen. It set the stage for this longer, more drawn-out, more exhausting war that we’re witnessing today,” Goff said.
He said President Biden and his allies allowed putin to dictate the terms of the conflict and were nervous about sending Ukraine the equipment it needed at the right time, fearing that the russian leader would use nuclear weapons if he was close to defeat. https://www.thetimes.com/article/4b1c8caf-a2b7-408d-a603-3f55233e4ab6
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My recollection is that Biden was public about doing exactly that, for exactly that reason. So whether a good decision or a bad one, he wasn't hiding anything. Not risking nuclear war over Ukraine seems to be a bipartisan consensus over here.
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My recollection is that Biden was public about doing exactly that, for exactly that reason. So whether a good decision or a bad one, he wasn't hiding anything. Not risking nuclear war over Ukraine seems to be a bipartisan consensus over here.
That’s true. IMO Biden made the wrong decision. Putin is not insane and surely wants to continue to enjoy his position and billions of $.
It was reported at the time that NATO and the US had warned Putin that if he used a tactical nuke, Russian forces inside Ukraine and also the Black Sea fleet would be destroyed using conventional means. That would not have been…healthy…for Putin.
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Anyway, we have what we have.
"Chaos in the Trump administration." How Hegseth canceled arms deliveries to Ukraine without the president's knowledge, Reuters wrote in an article. According to the publication, around February 2, the US Transportation Command (TRANSCOM) ordered three cargo carriers operating from Dover Air Force Base in Delaware and Al Udeid Air Base in the United Arab Emirates to cancel 11 scheduled flights carrying artillery shells and weapons to Ukraine. According to TRANSCOM records reviewed by Reuters, the order was a verbal directive from the office of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/order-by-hegseth-cancel-ukraine-weapons-caught-white-house-off-guard-2025-05-06/
Twice in the past two days, Ukrainian drones have threatened Moscow, but it is unlikely they will disrupt the Kremlin’s showcase Victory Day celebration. A senior representative of Ukraine’s defense forces, however, said an attempt was unlikely because of a low chance of success.
“As you can see, they’ve moved all of russia’s air defense systems to protect Moscow. Even if there is an attempt, it won’t be successful,” he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “Maybe there might be Ukrainian attacks on other regions but not on Moscow.”
Another defense official added that an attack on the Red Square event, which Chinese, Indian and even European officials are set to attend, would risk russian retaliation and could anger Washington. The official described suggestions that Ukraine is planning an attack as “hype.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/05/06/russia-ukraine-victory-day-drones-attack/
Hunting for people has long been a common thing in Ukraine, but criticism of forced mobilization from the one who was supposed to carry it out caused surprise. Military Commissar from Rivne region Yuriy Kovaluk was dismissed from his post and sent to the front after he criticized the mobilization. He told how some commanders allegedly "thoughtlessly" lost soldiers and said that he would not send his 22-year-old son to serve.
The official said that he condemns forced mobilization and forbids his subordinates to engage in "busification".
In an interview with "Chetverta Vlada" he said that he refuses young men who want to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine under the "Contract 18-24".
"Well, I dissuade children from that. I dissuade them, I say: guys, you will have to serve in meat brigades, the survivability of the personnel there is very low," Kovaluk said in an interview. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c2kvlpg0y9vo
The Zhytomyr Regional Mobilization Center commented on a video that went viral from an office meeting where they gave advice on how to search for potential mobilizers. In the video, the head gave instructions to his subordinates on how to search for conscripts, in particular, he asked them to check students who are not eligible for a deferral, the number of those on remand who are wanted, check employees of enterprises, etc.
The Zhytomyr Regional Mobilization Center noted that this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H89-hJrfSZo was distributed with the aim of discrediting and manipulating public opinion. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/330236-v-zhitomirskom-ttsk-prokommentirovali-slitoe-video-soveschaniya-gde-obsuzhdalos-kak-iskat-potentsialnykh-mobilizovannykh
Today, 205 Ukrainian prisoners were returned to Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4g3nn215z2o
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Moving a majority of air defenses to cover Moscow sounds like an open invitation for Ukraine to drone some of the places that had their air defenses taken away.
I'm sure not hearing much over here about peace negotiations. Either it is being overshadowed by other news items (the outbreak of war between two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, or tariffs, or...) or there are no peace talks going on at all. I don't know what Zelensky's thinking is on how to end this war. ??
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Putin is the key to achieving a peace. Although the Russian economy is suffering and their loss of men and material is staggering, they don’t seem to be nearing collapse and there isn’t enough dissension to directly threaten him. Even if Zelensky agreed today to give up Crimea and the occupied East, I don’t think Putin would immediately agree to peace. It’s to his advantage to grab as much territory as possible while he still can while he has a friendly US President in office.
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Even the election of the Pope and the extremely dangerous armed clash between Pakistan and India cannot distract attention from the war in Ukraine, which once again shows that war is very easy to start, but very difficult to stop.
The intensity of drone attacks has increased significantly recently. Hundreds of drones are flying deep into both Ukraine and russia.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c9858g4r8y3o
In Kyiv tonight, drone debris caused the destruction of residential buildings and two people died. One of the downed drones hit the house next to the one where Sergiy lives. Yesterday we went to the store on its first floor to buy food. Today there is a big black hole two floors high and a pile of debris lying around. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cx2520qwxe4o
Ukraine wants to freeze the war that russia is waging against Ukraine along the current front line. This statement was made on Fox News by US President Donald Trump's special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg. He also stated that Kyiv wants to "create a 30-kilometer demilitarized zone." This means withdrawing troops 15 kilometers on each side. The US President's special representative added that if russia agrees to a ceasefire in the war against Ukraine, Trump will be able to ensure its observance. https://www.unian.ua/world/viyna-v-ukrajini-u-trampa-zrobili-zayavu-pro-zamorozhennya-frontu-ta-demilitarizovanu-zonu-13000767.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
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The Cabinet of Ministers has allocated UAH 1.6 billion from the state budget reserve fund to the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the construction of training grounds and shooting ranges. According to the government's decision, out of the total amount of UAH 1.6 billion, UAH 806.6 million will be allocated to the State Border Guard Administration, UAH 553.1 million to the National Guard, and UAH 242 million to the National Police. https://censor.net/n3550931
Well, the authorities are allocating less and less money for protection from russians and more and more for protection from Ukrainians.
The Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, commented on the question of whether the mobilization age should be lowered, given that the war may continue next year.
“Some military commanders say that it is necessary. Because this is a different human resource. With us, everything happens, I repeat, depending on the situation at the front. Now there is one situation and there is a task of the General Staff for all components of the defense forces - a specific figure for mobilization, which is provided and it is being fulfilled.
If there is any deterioration at the front - we will, of course, study the proposal of the General Staff, look, study the figures that are available. What is the number of mobilized, what is the situation, losses, including injuries - these are also losses,” noted Oleksandr Zavitnevych. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cd9l9q741l0o.amp
It seems to me that the probability of lowering the mobilization age will be even higher in the event of a truce. Then the authorities can say that there is no immediate threat and the army can be replenished at the expense of young people. How it will actually be, time will tell.
The Verkhovna Rada has ratified an agreement between Ukraine and the United States on joint mining. This is the final step for the agreement to enter into force.
338 deputies voted for the draft law out of the 226 required. The agreement was actually supported by all factions and groups of the Rada with an absolute majority of votes, even the opposition, which criticized it a little.
In order to develop this agreement, Ukraine and the United States are to sign two more technical documents, the drafts of which are closed and have not even been seen by the deputies.
The agreement on resources was signed on April 30 by the First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko and the US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent.
Officially, it is called the "Agreement between the Governments of Ukraine and the United States on the Establishment of the American-Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund."
However, the agreement does not contain any mention of security guarantees, which the Ukrainian side has long insisted on.
Also, some of the agreements, namely regarding the management of the fund, the distribution of profits, or the selection of investment projects, have not been made public.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3wd6qgn61go
The United States is separating the mineral agreement with Ukraine from negotiations to end the war unleashed by the aggressor country russia, US State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said during a May 8 briefing, a video of which the department posted on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npPvbKdNI-k
putin is so afraid of an attack on himself or on participants in the May 9 parade that unprecedented restrictions are being introduced in the russian capital. On Victory Day in Moscow, they plan to completely turn off not only mobile internet, but also calls and SMS messages. https://news.telegraf.com.ua/ukr/novosti-rossii/2025-05-08/5908163-paranoya-zamist-paradu-u-moskvi-gotuyut-nebacheni-obmezhennya-na-9-travnya
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This night was quiet. Due to work, I simply don’t have time to reflect on this or that during the day, and in the evening I am so tired that I perceive information about Ukraine and the war as if I were reading news about another country and it doesn’t concern me. Although I am still a little worried about the conflict between India and Pakistan. This is another point of confrontation between China and the USA as allies of Pakistan and India, respectively. I hope a full-fledged war doesn’t start there.
putin calmly held his military parade in Moscow, dedicated to the victory of the USSR in World War II. According to the russians, this is solely their merit, although it is unknown what fate would have awaited them without all the Ukrainians who fought on their side, and allies, as well as the enormous material assistance of the United States.
Now putin is comparing the war in Ukraine to World War II and saying that "Truth and justice are on our side," insisting that "the "entire country, society and people support the participants" of the Ukraine war. russia said 27 world leaders were attending the event, but it was the presence of China's leader, alongside putin and more than 100 Chinese soldiers marching on Red Square, that stood out.
China's Xi Jinping had pride of place, sporting an orange and black St George ribbon, which russia sees as a symbol of military glory but which has been banned by several neighbouring countries.
Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro were among the assembled guests, along with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Robert Fico, Slovakia's prime minister, who is the only European Union leader to travel to Moscow.
For putin, the attendance of China's Xi on Victory Day is seen as a significant achievement, and he praised the "courageous people of China" as he paid tribute to Russia's allies in World War Two.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly3807exyno
Chinese President Xi Jinping and his russian counterpart Vladimir putin make it look like they're the best of friends. Hours earlier, Xi described the bond between the two countries as "unbreakable" and added that russia and China should be "friends of steel".
Both leaders are keen to present their vision of an alternative world order in the face of what they believe is US hegemony.
But Xi will be aware that while China is a superpower – russia's power is now limited. This is no longer a partnership of equals. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c753ng233nvo
Meanwhile, Ukraine decided to spoil relations with yet another neighbor.
Ukraine said Friday it had exposed a network of Hungarian spies trying to obtain defense secrets in a border region of Ukraine. The Security Services of Ukraine (SBU) said it had detained two Hungarian special services agents, whom it claims were reporting to a handler in Hungarian military intelligence and were looking for ground and air defense vulnerabilities in the southwestern Zakarpattia region, which borders Hungary.
“Comprehensive measures are currently underway to bring all members of the Hungarian intelligence network to justice,” said the statement.
Hungary responded to the arrests by expelling two of the staff at the Ukrainian embassy in Budapest.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on his Facebook page that two spies who had been working “under diplomatic cover” at the embassy were ordered to leave.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/09/world/ukraine-hungary-spy-network-intl
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine is expelling two Hungarian diplomats in response to Hungary's actions. The officials must leave the country within 48 hours.
This was announced by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Andriy Sybiga. https://babel.ua/news/117847-ukrajina-visilaye-dvoh-ugorskih-diplomativ-ce-vidpovid-na-analogichni-diji-budapeshtu
The Zakarpattia region stayed part of Ukraine after the breakup of the Soviet Union. The region was once part of the former Kingdom of Hungary and later Czechoslovakia. I lived in this region for three years and besides ethnic Hungarians, many other nationalities live there - russians, Romanians, Gypsies, many of whom do not understand the Ukrainian language at all. Even on state and local government bodies in the border areas hung Hungarian flags. Hungary really always considered and considers these lands to be its own and its politicians exploited this issue. Surprisingly, no radical actions were taken, and ordinary people never demonstrated national or religious hostility, living peacefully together. On the contrary, they were rather united by their rejection of the central government, which tried to establish its own rules despite the interests of local residents who were accustomed to European traditions of self-government. I managed to make friends with many people there and I was surprisingly comfortable communicating with them. Perhaps this was the only region in Ukraine where I would have liked to stay forever. But now everything can change again. I pray that peace will remain in this wonderful land.
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Another quiet night. But the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has received information concerning a potentially significant air attack that may occur at any time over the next several days. The Embassy, as always, recommends U.S. citizens be prepared to immediately shelter in the event an air alert is announced. https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kyiv-ukraine-may-9-2025/
European leaders on Saturday upped the pressure on russian President Vladimir putin to accept a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine without any conditions attached, warning that Western allies would impose further sanctions on Moscow and ramp up military support for Kyiv if Moscow does not comply.
Crucially, U.S. President Donald Trump backs the European demands and is also willing to contribute to the implementation and surveillance of a potential ceasefire — at least that's what the European side says.
putin must issue "no more ifs and buts, no more conditions and delays" but accept the ceasefire and work on a lasting peace deal, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters following the meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the presidents of France, Poland and Ukraine.
The leaders from the four Kyiv allies had traveled to the Ukrainian capital together by train for a visit of more than nine hours with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The visit came shortly after Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected calls for an extended ceasefire as long as the West doesn't stop its military support for Kyiv. https://www.politico.eu/article/european-leaders-win-trumps-support-to-pressure-putin-into-unconditional-ceasefire/
https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/do-kiyeva-pribuli-makron-stramer-merts-ta-tusk
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that Vladimir putin expressed his readiness to start peace talks without preconditions during a visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
“President putin highly appreciated China’s objective and fair stance on the Ukrainian crisis and expressed his readiness to start peace talks without preconditions, hoping to reach a fair and lasting peace agreement,” Wang Yi was quoted as saying by China’s state-run Xinhua news agency. http://www.news.cn/world/20250510/afb61996b5e04410ba97577379fee46c/c.html
In the afternoon of May 10, Donald Trump announced that "India and Pakistan have agreed to a complete and immediate ceasefire." This was confirmed by Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cpw75z2805yo
This is good news because Pakistan has been an important supplier of weapons to Ukraine, which it may need itself in the event of an escalation of the conflict with India.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has delivered 19 additional M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams tanks to Poland, bringing the total to 48 new tanks received in 2025. Deliveries are part of a 250-tank intergovernmental agreement signed in April 2022, soon after russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The full package includes:
‣ 250 x M1A2 SEPv3 MBTs
‣ 26 x M88A2 Hercules recovery vehicles
‣ 17 x M107kJ tactical bridge systems
Poland already operates 116 M1A1 FEP tanks, delivered by July 2024 under a separate U.S.-backed contract.
Iran is preparing to deliver in the near future launchers for short-range ballistic missiles that the U.S. said Tehran sent to russia last year for use against Ukraine, according to two Western security officials and a regional official. Iran denied it had such plans and dismissed the idea as "utterly absurd".
The delivery of the Fath-360 launchers - if it occurs - would help support russia's grinding assault on its neighbor and reaffirm the deepening security ties between Moscow and Tehran.
With a 75-mile (120-km) range, the Fath-360 would give Moscow's forces a new weapon to fire at Ukrainian frontline troops, nearby military targets, and population centers close to the border with russia, analysts said.
russia's deployment of the missiles could complicate U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to arrange, opens new tab a ceasefire and peace talks between Ukraine and russia and to strike a separate deal with Iran to curb its nuclear program. The regional official said that the indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks mediated by Oman are among "several reasons" for the delayed delivery of the launchers. https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-send-russia-launchers-short-range-missiles-sources-say-2025-05-09/
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It sounds like things are moving in the right direction at least a tiny bit. Still continuing to pray that a lasting peace can be found!
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It sounds like things are moving in the right direction at least a tiny bit. Still continuing to pray that a lasting peace can be found!
I agree. And good news of the tank deliveries, which is welcome news since there were reports that aid had been stopped again.
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There is almost no information about the supply of weapons to Ukraine, but it seems that something is being supplied, because the russians still have not managed to accelerate the offensive.
It seems that now the main battles have again shifted to the field of diplomacy.
President putin slammed European powers for talking to russia "in a boorish manner and with the help of ultimatums".
He didn't go into detail. He didn't need to.
This was clearly his response to the ultimatum set by European leaders in Kyiv.
They had warned Moscow that if russia didn't agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire from Monday, there will be more sanctions against russia and more military assistance for Ukraine.
On Saturday, Sir Keir Starmer said that "if he [putin] is serious about peace, then he has a chance to show it".
The Kremlin's response: we're serious, but we'll show it our way.
putin's way (his counter proposal) is direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul next Thursday.
But, crucially, no immediate ceasefire.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4edj818ngo
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he is ready to meet russian President Vladimir putin "personally" in Istanbul on Thursday for talks over ending the war.
His post on X came shortly after Donald Trump demanded Ukraine agree to Putin's offer of direct talks between the two countries in Turkey.
On Sunday Trump then posted on social media that Ukraine should agree to this "immediately" and it would provide clarity on whether there was a way to end the war.
In a late-night address on Saturday, Putin invited Ukraine to take part in "serious negotiations" over the war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Putin said he could "not rule out" the possibility that the talks could result in Russia and Ukraine agreeing "a new truce" - but did not address the calls for a 30-day ceasefire directly.
The Russian leader said: "This would be the first step towards a long-term, lasting peace, rather than a prologue to more armed hostilities after the Ukrainian armed forces get new armaments and personnel, after feverish trench-digging and the establishment of new command posts."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgxrm0lnego
Apparently, Zelensky believes that his own order from 2022 about the impossibility of negotiations with putin does not apply to him. https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/6792022-44249
Today, May 12, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a bill approved by the Verkhovna Rada on the ratification of the Ukraine-US minerals agreement. https://gordonua.com/ukr/news/politics/zelenskij-pidpisav-zakon-pro-ratifikatsiju-uhodi-zi-ssha-pro-ukrajinski-nadra-1742173.html
Some believe that as of today, all holders of mineral extraction permits in Ukraine have actually lost them.
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As the BBC piece noted, Putin is open to peace but only on his terms.
It’s hopeful in some measure that Trump hasn’t abandoned the search for peace. Unfortunately, toward Putin he acts like a weak parent with a badly behaved child, scolding and threatening but without any consequence (at least three known times according to Perplexity). This will not work any better with Putin than it does with a child.
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During the negotiations with Ukraine, which are scheduled to take place on May 15 in Turkey, russia plans to once again raise the issue of recognizing the occupied Ukrainian territories as part of its state. This was stated by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, russian media reported.
According to him, the negotiations will concern a “permanent settlement” of the conflict and “realities on the ground”, in particular territorial issues.
In his statement, Ryabkov once again voiced the Kremlin’s narratives, in particular about the “denazification of the Kyiv regime” and the need to “recognize new realities”, referring to the illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/abroad/330905-rossiya-ozvuchila-trebovaniya-pered-peregovorami-v-turtsii
Also, it seems that none of the first persons except Zelensky are planning to participate in the negotiations on May 15.
Instead, in the office, the main topic of discussion today was the mandatory registration of pets, which actually was introduced back in 2007, but attention to this issue was drawn to the announcement of the Kyiv City State Administration regarding the possibility of doing this in city registration departments. https://www.unian.ua/society/reyestraciya-domashnih-tvarin-v-ukrajini-hto-zobov-yazaniy-reyestruvati-13007286.html
Due to the manipulative wording of news headlines by journalists, dog owners are outraged and consider this an attack on their pets, because no one had done this before and no one was fined for lack of registration.
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Where I live dogs must be licensed yearly for $15, or $50 if not neutered or spayed. The fees are used to defray pet related expenses such as running the county animal shelter and reduced cost or free vaccinations, and some veterinary services, for those who cannot afford to pay (dogs and cats must have a current vaccination against rabies.) This is typical in most places in the US.
Non-compliance is a petty offense with a penalty of up to $150 for each occurrence. However there are a substantial number of owners who don’t bother to license their dogs, and some don’t have their pets properly vaccinated for rabies and other serious diseases.
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Also, it seems that none of the first persons except Zelensky are planning to participate in the negotiations on May 15.
Instead, in the office, the main topic of discussion today was the mandatory registration of pets…
Zelensky is sent into the arena alone. Clearly nothing favorable to Ukraine can result without participation from Europe and the US.
…
When people have no influence over big national issues, or are exhausted by them or both, they tend to be overly concerned about the small local issues, especially those they might have some influence over.
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The BBC published an article about increasing Polish discontent with Ukrainian refugees. It appears to be influenced from campaigning for upcoming elections by two right wing candidates who are demonizing the refugees and claiming Ukraine started the war.
It’s difficult to know from the article how widespread this is. Wlad, I hope that your family is unaffected.
Unfortunately, and to my personal disgust, the United States under Trump has added support to such people because of his statements revising history of the war and in support of Russia and against Ukraine along with those of some of his negotiators.
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Agree.
I think it still depends on time, culture, and local circumstances. For example, I'm sure that a dog in the US now has more rights than a man in Ukraine.
A few days ago, a video went viral on social media showing an employee of one of the Kharkov recruitment centers beating a man near a water dispenser. The mayor of Kharkov, Ihor Terekhov, reacted to this incident, stressing that “many worthy people work in mobilization centers who sincerely serve Ukraine. However, cases like this one strike at the trust in the state and devalue the feat of true defenders.”
According to him, the victim is a history and human rights teacher and an 8th grade homeroom teacher.
“The man had the legal right to a reservation and provided the relevant documents during a meeting with representatives of the mobilization center. All this is recorded in the published footage, as well as the fact that he did not violate the law, did not provoke a conflict, and did not resist. He behaved calmly and did not show any aggression, but this did not stop the use of force against him,” Ihor Terekhov emphasized. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/331013-mer-kharkova-povidomiv-scho-cholovik-yakogo-pobili-sluzhbovtsi-ttsk-vchitel-istoriyi-z-bronyuvannyam
Censorship is also intensifying in Ukraine. Authorities have banned access to a website that covered cases of corruption and raiding - antikor.com.ua. https://focus.ua/uk/ukraine/706013-derzhspeczv-yazku-obmezhila-dostup-do-saytu-antikor-prichina
I didn't have time to read the article about corruption in mobilization centers https://antikor.com.ua/articles/768095-ukrainskie_ttsk_ehegodno_poluchajut_do_2_milliardov_evro_vzjatok_-_nardep_mikisha
Fortunately, access to the main world media is still open and, for example, from the Reuters website we can learn that the russian economy is in an increasingly precarious state as a result of a shift to a war mode and of Western sanctions over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, a report by the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) said on Tuesday.
The report, prepared for talks of European Union finance ministers, said that while still relatively stable, the russian economy was only superficially resilient and that underlying imbalances and structural weaknesses were growing.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-economy-worse-shape-than-moscow-says-report-eu-shows-2025-05-13/
russia is likely preparing for a larger offensive and is shifting forces to key hot spots on the battlefield. This comes amid a proposal by russian dictator Vladimir putin to hold direct talks with Ukraine.
Many military experts also warn that instead of stopping the fighting, russia will try to launch another offensive, the Financial Times writes, citing Ukrainian intelligence officials.
https://www.ft.com/content/a43c7876-7d7b-4d1c-96fd-98b60a1c6223
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The BBC published an article about increasing Polish discontent with Ukrainian refugees. It appears to be influenced from campaigning for upcoming elections by two right wing candidates who are demonizing the refugees and claiming Ukraine started the war.
It’s difficult to know from the article how widespread this is. Wlad, I hope that your family is unaffected.
This is definitely related to the elections. Fortunately, my family is financially independent of the assistance, which is constantly being reduced, and the children already know Polish no worse than Poles and do not stand out. It also depends on the circle of communication, although in general they still feel like they are in a foreign country.
My son occasionally announces his intention to return to Ukraine. He doesn't understand that the Ukraine he left from no longer exists. And I'm not sure that if he finds life in Poland difficult, that he will have enough strength to live in Ukraine.
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I have once again learned that I feel bad when I get tired and when the weather changes. But when these events coincide, I feel really bad. So today I stayed home and tried very hard to do something at work. Hopefully tomorrow I will feel better and I will be able to go to the office for our usual weekly meeting, which I always try to hold in person. Still, a good team inspires and really gives me strength. The feeling that we have done everything well during the week allows us not to think about work on the weekend and to have a quality rest by switching to something else.
It was probably expected for everyone, except for Zelensky, that no one showed up for the peace talks in Turkey except him. Perhaps because he flew to Ankara, and the negotiations were supposed to take place in Istanbul. This would be funny if it weren't so sad, and if it weren't happening to my unfortunate country.
In fact, we have witnessed another attempt to look good while playing a bad game, which once again demonstrated to the whole world the attitude towards Ukraine in the person of Zelensky or to Zelensky, which has consequences for the entire country, from those on whom the fate of Ukraine depends - putin and Trump. I generally get the impression that they are already acting together as allies.
President Donald Trump told reporters that when it comes to peace talks between russia and Ukraine, “nothing is going to happen until” he meets with russian President Vladimir putin.
“Nothing’s gonna happen until putin and I get together, ok? And obviously — he wasn’t going to go. He was going to go, but he thought I was going. He wasn’t going if I wasn’t there and I don’t believe anything’s going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together. But we’re going to have to get it solved because too many people are dying,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One as he landed in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he won’t meet with any russian representatives in Turkey besides putin. He called the delegation who showed up Thursday “phony.”
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/ukraine-russia-talks-istanbul-turkey-intl#cmapbfiws000n3b6mzizckiyr
The composition of the russian delegation proposed for the negotiations is not even ministers, but people one or two ranks lower. The delegation from Ukraine will now be headed by the Minister of Defense - Rustam Umerov. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c74nxrr7mwkt
As Ukrainian and russian officials prepare to potentially meet in Turkey, russia is amassing forces on the frontlines for a possible new offensive intended to capture more Ukrainian territory, two US officials with knowledge of the latest US assessments told CNN.
russian commanders “aspire to generate a big force,” the first US official said, adding that the likely offensive is focused on gaining more ground in eastern Ukraine.
“putin will attempt to take whatever land he can get right up to the outskirts of Kyiv,” the second US official said. “The russians are going to make every effort to get what they can.”
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/ukraine-russia-talks-istanbul-turkey-intl#cmapbfiws000n3b6mzizckiyr
On Thursday, May 15, the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) began conducting counterintelligence (security) measures in Lviv, which will last until May 18.
As reported by the SSU Department in the Lviv region, the National Police, the Military Law Enforcement Service, and the National Guard are involved in the measures.
"The actions of law enforcement officers will cover the entire city. The goal is to prevent and neutralize threats of intelligence and subversive activities against our state and increase the security of citizens in the conditions of russian armed aggression against Ukraine.
Security measures are taking into account the legal regime of martial law," the SSU said. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/331096-sbu-provodit-kontrrazvedyvatelnye-meropriyatiya-vo-lvove-skolko-dney-prodlyatsya
It seems strange to search for russian saboteurs near the western border, hundreds of miles from the front. This is not the first time I have heard the opinion that martial law in Ukraine mainly serves only one purpose - to be a cover for the authorities to restrict people's rights and freedoms without limits.
The only thing worse than disgust for the regime is the awareness of the pain felt by the people who enable it to continue to commit lawlessness and who unwittingly protect it.
Today I received a call from a radio amateur friend who volunteered to fight on February 24, 2022 and got stuck in the army. He asked how his son could get a new passport in the Netherlands, where he became an adult as a refugee during this time. The Ukrainian authorities have made it impossible for men to obtain documents without prior registration at a mobilization center, which has left many men without documents at all. Instead, most automatically receive fines. I advised him to use this as a basis for applying for permanent residence status or Dutch citizenship. This friend cursed his decision to go to war, which made him a slave with no hope of returning from the army, despite the injuries and concussions he received. I hope we will live to see the day when we can see our children and each other again.
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It seems more and more that openly corrupt kakistocracy is the natural or ascendant form of government in many places despite a remanent veneer of democracy. It’s not such a big step from that to fascism. It’s ironic that Putin’s invasion excuse of “Nazis” in Ukraine is now much closer to reality because of the devolution of the government into authoritarianism.
Thankfully your family is safe in Poland. I wish that you were there with them.
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putin's Nazi fiction is designed exclusively for brainwashed russians, who are trying to convince that Ukrainians have fallen under the influence of the West, which they associate with fascism/Nazism, the difference between which few russians know. For Ukrainians, accusing them of Nazism is nonsense because there have never been any conflicts in Ukraine due to nationality or religion. In the minds of Ukrainians, there is no idea of their national superiority over others. Therefore, the Nazis are more likely russians with their insane chauvinism and the intention to destroy the national identity of other peoples.
And this has nothing to do with authoritarianism, which is the dominant form of government in a degrading society that seeks simple solutions to complex issues.
Ukrainian and russian officials met in Istanbul today to negotiate an end to the war – though each side came out of those talks with different goals and agendas.
Vladimir Medinsky, who headed up the russian delegation, said he was "satisfied" with the outcome of today's negotiations, said the two countries agreed on three points, which were:
- The exchange of prisoners of war
- That russia has "taken notice" of Ukraine's request for direct talks to take place between putin and Zelensky
- And that russia and Ukraine will present a vision of a "possible future ceasefire"
"Once this vision has been presented, we believe it would be appropriate, as also agreed to continue our negotiations," the statement continued.
Ukrainian defence minister Rustem Umerov who tells the press that his delegation's first priority was "people". Ukraine and russia have agreed to swap 1,000 prisoners of war each after the first face-to-face talks in three years. The date for the transfer has been set, but is not being made public, Ukraine's defence minister says.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c74nxrr7mwkt
Donald Tusk, the head of the Polish government, told journalists that the talks showed that the russians had not shown good will in Istanbul. The russian side did not intend to negotiate in the presence of the American side. The russian side set conditions that were unacceptable not only to Ukraine, but to all of us.
Tusk emphasized that politicians would continue to work on peace in Ukraine. He added that the main task would be to maintain European and American unity in this matter. We do not hide the fact that the russian position can hardly be called constructive in any way. We are probably still facing very difficult days - Donald Tusk published an entry regarding the conversation with Trump.
https://www.rmf24.pl/fakty/swiat/news-tusk-po-rozmowach-z-trumpem-czas-zwiekszyc-presje,nId,7967056
Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal stated that Ukraine is recording all crimes committed by russia regarding the forced mobilization of Ukrainians in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. In particular, several hundred thousand war crimes have been registered to date, including the facts of forced mobilization. According to the Prime Minister, all this is recorded by law enforcement officers and transferred to the International Criminal Court. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/331166-dannye-o-prinuditelnoy-mobilizatsii-ukraintsev-na-tot-ukraina-peredaet-v-mus-shmygal
I wonder if they have reported to the International Criminal Court about how Ukraine itself is forcibly mobilizing Ukrainians?
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Another hard week has ended. Well, how it ended. There's still something to do over the weekend. The head of one department complained that she had another person fired. She couldn't handle the workload. I also have more work than people. I have to be careful, I can't afford too much workload. The fact that I'm not recovering by Monday is a bad sign. And given the situation in the country, it's better not to leave the home at all...
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Another hard week has ended. Well, how it ended. There's still something to do over the weekend. The head of one department complained that she had another person fired. She couldn't handle the workload. I also have more work than people. I have to be careful, I can't afford too much workload. The fact that I'm not recovering by Monday is a bad sign. And given the situation in the country, it's better not to leave the home at all...
Yes, please avoid unnecessary risks and take good care of yourself. I hope you (and the country) have easier times soon.
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Thank you Bob!
I have long been a fatalist and have relied on God's will. If He has led me through all that I have already had to go through, I have no doubt that I can continue to rely on Him.
As for the load, it is more difficult with this, but I hope that this phase will pass and it will be a little easier.
There is an advantage to being tired - despite the fact that there was a drone attack on Kyiv all night, I slept. I think I heard something, but I didn't wake up from the explosions. Sergiy UT3UFD, on the contrary, was furious that he couldn't sleep. There were no hits in our area, but there were again deaths and damage in other areas. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cgj859wzp82o
The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reports that in order to demonstratively pressure and intimidate Ukraine, as well as the EU and NATO member states, the aggressor state russia intends to carry out a “training and combat” launch of the RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile from the Yars complex https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-24_Yars on the night of May 19, 2025. The flight range of the specified three-stage solid-fuel missile is over 10 thousand kilometers” and even without a warhead it can cause great damage if it hits a residential building.
https://armyinform.com.ua/2025/05/18/vorog-planuye-navchalno-bojovyj-zapusk-mizhkontynentalnoyi-balistychnoyi-rakety-gur/
So today I decided to take a full rest. In the morning Sergiy came to my place and we had coffee. After the dinner given the bad propagation, Colin G3ZAF and I talked for over an hour on Zoom.
We talked again about how incomplete information affects the perception of the situation. In general, this distortion of reality is very dangerous. And it is not only about underestimating the enemy, but also about overestimating oneself. In the imagination of Ukrainians and not only the Ukrainian army is huge and invincible, but in reality no one knows what part of it currently consists of unmotivated forcibly mobilized people, and we must not forget that they are poorly trained and fight for other people's money under extremely poor management. And the only thing that saves the situation is that the russians are not doing much better.
Also all of Colin's acquaintances in Ukraine mention the manhunt in one way or another, although he hears nothing about it on the BBC. This is obviously an uncomfortable topic that the politically correct Western media diligently avoids. Of course, Western leaders would not be so comfortable publicly supporting Zelensky if their people knew what the authorities in Ukraine were doing.
In Kharkiv on May 12, a man died after falling from the third-floor window of a mobilization center building. They say he committed suicide, but people point out that he chose a strange place for this and had not been seen with suicidal intentions before. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/331333-v-kharkovskom-ttsk-utverzhdayut-chto-ne-ubivali-muzhchinu-a-on-sam-vypal-iz-okna
I am sure that the investigation will be formal. On the other hand, it is difficult to blame the workers of the mobilization centers and the police for what they do. If they do not send others to their deaths, then they will have to go to the front themselves.
Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko appealed to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine with a call to replace the military uniform for workers of mobilization centers with another.
According to the MP, the military personnel of the mobilization centers are allegedly dishonoring the military uniform with their actions (as is known, the competence includes, in particular, the mobilization of citizens of Ukraine into the army).
“For the past year, military personnel have been actively contacting me and asking me to do something about the fact that they are constantly confused with workers of mobilization centers because of their uniforms. The military have become ashamed to wear a pixel (slang name for military uniform in Ukraine). Sidelong glances, people run in different directions just to get past you, and in extreme cases it even comes to a fight,” the people's deputy noted. https://redaktor.com.ua/2025/05/17/ideya-nardepa-goncharenka-shhodo-inshoyi-formy-dlya-vijskovyh-tczk-rozizlyla-rechnyka-zsu/
Starting in 2025, boys aged 17 and over who plan to enter higher or vocational education institutions will be required to provide a military registration document. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/331254-postuplenie-v-vuzy-dlya-parney-tolko-s-voenno-uchetnym-dokumentom-novye-pravila-s-2025-goda
It is obvious that now even more boys will go abroad to receive higher education.
I can't vouch for the accuracy of the numbers, although looking out the window or inside a large supermarket, it seems like that's the case somewhere. Since gaining independence, Ukraine has been experiencing a steady decline in the birth rate. While in 1990-1991, 657.2 thousand and 630.8 thousand children were born, respectively, in 2024 there were only 176.1 thousand (data only from controlled territories). This means a decrease in the birth rate by more than 70%. In 2024, mortality in Ukraine exceeded the birth rate by almost three times. During the year, 495.1 thousand people died, while only 176.1 thousand were born. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/05/13/infografika/suspilstvo/skilky-lyudej-narodzhuyetsya-pomyraye-ukrayini
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US President Donald Trump has posted on Truth Social following his two hour call with russian President Vladimir rutin. He says believes the call went "very well", adding that "russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire and, more importantly bring and end to the war".
Some more from putin, who has been speaking following his call with Trump. "Contacts between participants in the Istanbul talks have resumed, which gives reason to believe that on the whole we're on the right track," putin adds.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cz9y5xy81jqt
Well, we don't know what they actually talked about for two hours, but everything related to Ukraine remained unchanged. Just a little suspicious that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asks Trump not to make decisions about Ukraine "without us"...
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Here is the latest Washington Post reporting on the Trump/Putin call and peace negotiations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/05/20/trump-putin-call-ukraine-europe
According to this Trump did not do anything concrete about Russian stalling. I hope this is very temporary or that the WaPo doesn’t have the full picture, and that he will soon do more.
However, as I said earlier here, I have feared that Trump could lose interest in resolving the war, or actively take Russias side even more than he has. Recall that Trump has drastically reoriented US foreign policy toward Russia - supposed arctic business deals, some kind of detente and mutually beneficial relationship with Russia in the arctic and elsewhere, etc., and of course his longstanding personal interest in real estate in Russia, particularly a grand hotel.
More from BBC
https://bbc.com/news/articles/c4ge7jq0px2o
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The strict regime became necessary due to my health and I woke up at the same time as usual, although I decided not to go to the office today. I need to recover from a difficult period and yesterday I held all the meetings that required my presence. Tomorrow morning will start again with a general meeting, and today I will be able to work on documents from home. It has finally become warm and the sun is shining. I will have to go out to buy vegetables at the farmers' market.
This morning I saw another air raid alert on my phone screen, but I heard nothing again.
After a large-scale blackout that recently occurred in Spain, mobile communication and the Internet disappeared there yesterday. https://www.lbc.co.uk/world-news/all-major-mobile-networks-emergency-service-lines-down-spain/ The authorities say that this is due to an unsuccessful attempt to update the software, but I do not believe it. Perhaps the weak position of Europe in relations with Russia is connected with such cases?
The Polish Prime Minister's statement on refusing to send a military contingent to Ukraine is understandable because his party's candidate made it to the second round of the presidential election, but without an advantage over his competitor. Therefore, there is an obvious reluctance to take risks and lose votes due to unpopular statements. https://www.tvp.info/86811985/donald-tusk-w-pytaniu-dnia-tvp-info-20-maja-2025-trzaskowski-nie-bedzie-prezydentem-wojny-domowej-wideo
Another Polish presidential candidate, Karol Nawrocki, who advanced to the second round of the election, is ready to promise to abandon support for Ukraine's accession to NATO in exchange for political support for the third most popular presidential candidate, the leader of the "Confederation" Slawomir Menzen, who is known for his anti-Ukrainian position. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/ukrayina-rozminna-moneta-navrotskiy-postupivsya-1747750567.html
Last year, Donald Trump promised he would end the Ukraine War in "24 hours". Last week, he said that it would not be resolved until he and russian President Vladimir putin could "get together" and hash it out in person. On Monday, the ground shifted again. After a two-hour phone call with Putin, he said that the conditions of a peace deal could only be negotiated between russia and Ukraine – and maybe with the help of the Pope. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ge7jq0px2o
The US president had the means to pressure putin on Ukraine and didn’t. The US president didn’t fail to end this war, because he never tried.
His focus was from day one to achieve a reset with russia that would deliver an economic bounty to the US. American participation in the war was an obstacle to be removed before that could happen, and doing so via a peace settlement — rather than Ukraine’s abandonment — was a better look. It wasn’t, however, essential.
“This was a European situation, and should have remained a European situation,” Trump said on Monday. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-20/trump-surrendered-now-europe-has-a-choice-to-make-on-ukraine
The deeper question now is whether he is also abandoning America’s three-year-long project to support Ukraine, a nascent democracy that he has frequently blamed for being illegally invaded.
The news release from the British government announcing the new sanctions made no mention of the United States, but instead stated that the European Union was preparing to “announce its 17th package of sanctions against russia, in a coordinated effort to secure a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.”
A senior European official who has been involved in the closed-door discussions said Mr. Trump never seemed invested in joining sanctions on russia if it refused to go along with the unconditional cease-fire. His threats, the official said, appeared largely performative; the United States did not join in the design of major new sanctions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/20/us/politics/trump-ukraine-russia.html
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Wlad, Its good that warmer weather has arrived and I hope it will help in your recovery and general mood with all the stress.
I don’t have the “gene” to immediately believe in hidden actors and conspiracies, but I agree that these European power interruptions do seem suspicious. Electric infrastructure is a prime cyberattack target, Russia is good at it, and it’s very low risk for them.
It seems that the Poles are not immune to the resentful selfishness and attendant cruelty of populist politics, though generally they have up to now been very supportive of Ukraine. It’s been a worldwide phenomenon in recent years. I think that the modern culture of instant gratification and the nature of social media encourages impatience and grasping for possessions, contributing to a short time limit on public support for aid to others in bad situations. (Not to mention easily targeted propaganda on social media).
I agree that Trump’s efforts to end the Russian war on Ukraine were low level at best, and at worst a cynical cover for his true intention of forming friendly relations with Russia and helping his buddy Putin. Russian propaganda has often been repeated by him, his Secretary of State, and his negotiators. As we say here, “the fix was in”.
Will Europe alone will be able to force Putin to stop advancing and sign a peace deal? I hope so but I don’t see how. Regardless of outside aid and power, it’s clear that the path forward is dark without substantial reforms to governance within Ukraine as you’ve pointed out.
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If we divide what the USA, Europe and Ukraine did, realizing that their interests do not always and not in everything coincide, then it will become clear why and how their relations with each other also changed over time.
I do not know what the situation looks like from the side of the USA or Europe, but it seems to me that Ukraine used the previously provided assistance very ineptly. This is reminiscent of when an infantile person suddenly receives an inheritance from a distant relative. Money is spent irrationally and there is no strategy not only for development, but also for the existence of the country in general for a period of more than a year in accordance with the weapons and money promised by the sponsors.
Rampant corruption and incompetence of the authorities have made Ukraine totally dependent on Western supplies of weapons and money. The policy of minimizing the threat and shifting the burden of war to the poor part of the population, the lack of rotations in the army, led to a feeling of injustice and demotivation of Ukrainians. All this together led to the rapid exhaustion of the country and the corresponding disappointment in its partners. Add to this the loss of interest in the war and Trump's demands that Europe solve this problem on its own, and it turns out that Ukraine is left alone sooner than it expected. Although it seems like two years ago I asked how you can count on endless support?
Six servicemen were killed and more than 10 were injured in a russian missile strike on Sumy Oblast on May 20, the National Guard of Ukraine said. It said the strike occurred during training at a military unit's shooting range. Many are asking how right it is to build training ranges so close to the front line, within reach of enemy drones and missiles. Especially since this is not the first such case. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cgj88040q36o
The commander of the 1st mechanized battalion of the 47th separate mechanized brigade "Magura" of the Armed Forces, Oleksandr Shirshin, announced his resignation and accused his superiors of "moronic tasks." On the evening of May 16, a post appeared on the battalion commander's Facebook page, where he expressed dissatisfaction with orders from the military leadership and announced that he was submitting a report for dismissal from his position.
"I have not received more moronic tasks than in the current direction. I will tell you the details sometime, but the loss of people was dull, trembling before the clueless generals does not lead to anything except failures. All that is capable of is reprimands, investigations, imposition of penalties," Shirshin's post said. "'Political' games and assessment of the real state of affairs do not correspond to either reality or possibilities. They have been played out."
The officer's criticism caused a resonance. Someone sided with the battalion commander, someone accused him of "hysteria."
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c14kxv2xmero
This officer has an impeccable reputation, but he seems to not understand the political component and the real goals of the high military command.
The European Union will make 5.5 million euros available to the non-governmental organisation European Endowment for Democracy (EED) to support Prague-based Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), EU diplomacy chief Kaja Kallas told journalists on Tuesday.
Czechia has actively sought to support the funding of the radio station. The station has been struggling financially after President Donald Trump's administration withdrew money previously allocated to it by the US Congress. https://english.radio.cz/eu-pledges-55-million-euros-support-czech-based-radio-free-europe-8851657
A story about a female pilot who flies a combat helicopter https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/18/world/europe/ukraine-woman-combat-pilot.html
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Police have completed an investigation into the death of a man at a mobilization center who either fell or was thrown from a third-floor window. According to the regional police chief, the injuries were consistent with a fall from a height, and video footage does not confirm incitement to suicide. It turned out he was the cyclist who was previously hit by a car during a detention by mobilization center workers. https://informator.ua/uk/policiya-zavershila-perevirku-u-spravi-velosipedista-yakiy-zaginuv-u-tck-harkova-nihto-ne-vinen
Sumy region resident Vitaliy Kukol was sentenced for making explosives and mining a road to hinder the movement of russian occupiers. The Trostyanets District Court of Sumy region found Vitaliy Kukol guilty of committing a criminal offense under Part 1 of Article 263 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (Illegal Handling of Weapons, Ammunition and Explosives) and sentenced him to three years in prison. At the same time, the court decided to release the man from serving the sentence with a probationary period of one year.
At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the man personally made explosives and mined the road between Trostyanets and Kamyanka, which were occupied at the time. He helped evacuate people from the occupation and cooperated with the 93rd Kholodny Yar Brigade.
At one of the court hearings, he said that he made the weapon at the beginning of a full-scale war so that he would have something to defend his village in the event of an invasion by russian troops. He does not see his guilt in this. https://hromadske.radio/news/2025/05/19/cholovik-vyhotovyv-vybukhivku-shchob-zaminuvaty-dorohu-okupantam-na-sumshchyni-teper-yo-zasudyly
Unidentified gunmen shot and killed a former Ukrainian politician on Wednesday morning outside a school in a wealthy suburb of Madrid, Spain's Interior Ministry said. "Several persons shot him in the back and the head and then fled towards a forested area," an Interior Ministry source said.
The victim, Andriy Portnov, 51, was a senior aide to Ukraine's pro-russian former President Viktor Yanukovich who was ousted in a 2014 popular uprising.
Portnov left for russia the same year and has faced investigations in Ukraine over accusations of treason and embezzlement, as well as international sanctions, although the charges and EU sanctions were later dropped.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-ex-politician-shot-dead-outside-madrids-american-school-source-says-2025-05-21/
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Although it seems like two years ago I asked how you can count on endless support?
I think you did too, and you have raised the point several more times here. And you are correct.
Here the initial deep support here for Ukraine has significantly diminished in my opinion. The war has gone on too long, is far away and our soldiers aren’t involved, so it’s not a large issue in the minds of most people as are many other conflicts around the world.
The effect of right wing media including Fox News is substantial, and they have promoted many Russian narratives. There is a substantial minority of people who get their news only from them and from social media that shows them only similar views based on algorithms. In a number of places they seem to be the majority and their government representatives reflect their views.
However the biggest reason for reduced support for Ukraine is President Trump.
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There's no doubt that support for Ukraine has diminished, but there are many reasons for it in my opinion:
1. Ukraine is not the "new" topic, and the "what's hot today?" culture of the US and its news complex doesn't stay with old causes, once a new cause arises. New causes have included the Israeli situation as well as domestic policy controversies which are numerous - tariffs as one example.
2. Ukraine's government has provided a lot of ammunition for naysayers by suspending elections, free expression, sullying their democratic reputation, embezzling resources, and being generally inflexible around the conditions for peace (as has Russia, but we expected nothing better from Russia while we did expect better from Ukraine).
3. Budgetary problems in the US, including that it's finally dawning on people that the US can't keep spending $2 trillion+ per year more than it gets in taxes.
4. As Bob mentioned, Ukraine being geographically distant, and Europe not seeming to be in any real panic about Russia themselves.
5. Yes, Trump's priorities - as well as the priorities of those who voted for him, are different. More domestically focused and less interested in managing other countries internal affairs/conflicts directly.
Wlad, I hope you pace yourself and don't "overdo it" in terms of your workload - tempting as that may be! God will see you through.
Brady
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Guys, thank you for your opinion. You are right. Everyone is in their own bubble and not only do not know, but also do not want to know about other opinions.
It seems to me that one of the biggest problems of Ukraine is the lack of a clear answer to the question of "how" it is going to achieve its goals. If for Europe the agreement "we give money - you fight" may continue to operate, and its goal is to maintain hostilities on the territory of Ukraine and fight Russia with the hands of Ukrainians, then for a certain part of Ukrainians everything is not so clear. On the one hand, the ability of the authorities to organize defense and find resources for it abroad is an indisputable fact. On the other hand, this was done at the expense of part of the population, who were actually turned into slaves, and enormous damage to the economy. We will find out later what damage was caused to the country by such a policy, provided, of course, that even in the medium term it does not lead to the loss of the entire country or a large part of it.
The likelihood that Trump will change his mind is extremely small, and US support has been critical.
Regarding money, not everything is clear either. Although it is a loan, there should be enough money for 2025, but no one is promising to give Ukraine money next year. Moreover, Europe has focused on developing its own defense industry.
Next Tuesday, May 27, 2025, EU member states will formally approve a new defense initiative – the creation of a €150 billion ($169 billion) Security Action for Europe (SAFE) fund.
With this money, EU authorities promise to stimulate the defense industry and start a new era of rearmament in Europe. However, critics doubt the European Commission’s ability to distribute the funds transparently and fairly and to ensure proper supervision of investments.
Poland, which has an A credit rating, plans to take €30.6 billion from the €150 billion SAFE fund to invest in its production of Piorun portable anti-aircraft missile systems, Krab self-propelled howitzers and Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles. This was announced on Tuesday, May 20, by Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosyniak-Kamysz. https://mind.ua/publications/20289672-es-stvoryue-spilnij-z-ukrayinoyu-oboronnij-fond-na-150-mlrd-evro-yakim-vin-bude
Polish President Andrzej Duda has called on NATO member states to invite Ukraine to join the alliance without delay. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/01/15/7493735/
These words are unlikely to be worth anything considering that Duda is completing his term, and the decision to admit another country to NATO depends not only on Poland.
The Royal United Services Institute believes that russia will seek to intensify offensive operations to build pressure during negotiations, but the pressure cannot be sustained indefinitely. There is a darker possible future, in which the summer offensive overpowers Ukrainian defences to take key towns in Donbas, after which russia pivots to attacking Kharkiv in the autumn, while once again switching its deep strike campaign to degrade Ukrainian power generation and distribution ahead of the winter. The russians understand that these have an impact on the civilian population in Ukraine and the international community. Under such circumstances, the russians hope that they can steadily convince Europe to pressure Ukraine to sue for peace, even on unacceptable terms. It is the belief that this trajectory is possible that is keeping the Kremlin prepared to plough on, despite the chronic underperformance of its arms. https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-prepares-russian-summer-offensive
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There's no doubt that support for Ukraine has diminished, but there are many reasons for it in my opinion:
1. Ukraine is not the "new" topic, and the "what's hot today?" culture of the US and its news complex doesn't stay with old causes, once a new cause arises. New causes have included the Israeli situation as well as domestic policy controversies which are numerous - tariffs as one example.
2. Ukraine's government has provided a lot of ammunition for naysayers by suspending elections, free expression, sullying their democratic reputation, embezzling resources, and being generally inflexible around the conditions for peace (as has Russia, but we expected nothing better from Russia while we did expect better from Ukraine).
3. Budgetary problems in the US, including that it's finally dawning on people that the US can't keep spending $2 trillion+ per year more than it gets in taxes.
4. As Bob mentioned, Ukraine being geographically distant, and Europe not seeming to be in any real panic about Russia themselves.
5. Yes, Trump's priorities - as well as the priorities of those who voted for him, are different. More domestically focused and less interested in managing other countries internal affairs/conflicts directly.
Wlad, I hope you pace yourself and don't "overdo it" in terms of your workload - tempting as that may be! God will see you through.
Brady
I completely agree, Brady.
I’d add that even in the best circumstances and with the best leadership, it’s still difficult to get many Americans to learn about and think about the consequences of affairs half a world away. Our large domestic economy and relative geographic isolation has historically made foreign countries and issues nearly irrelevant to many of us.
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It was a difficult night in Ukraine — 250 strike drones and 14 ballistic missiles hit civilians in Odesa, Vinnytsia, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kyiv, and Dnipro.
First, for several hours, Kyiv was attacked by drones, and then, after 1 a.m., russia struck with at least two ballistic missiles. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c071pzp4jmpo
The attack lasted until the morning, and the fragments of the drones caused damage and fires throughout the city. There were also injuries. There is no exact information about the missile hits, as always, we will find out later.
Although drone and missile attacks occur almost daily.
https://bigkyiv.com.ua/u-kyyevi-ulamky-zbytogo-drona-vpaly-na-terytoriyu-shkoly/
https://armyinform.com.ua/2025/05/23/shahedy-atakuvaly-poltavshhynu-znyshheno-budivlyu-pidpryyemstva-bez-svitla-majzhe-2000-spozhyvachiv/
Unfortunately, so far nothing has been heard about similar attacks on Moscow, although Ukraine is not limited by sanctions and has free access to any Western technology to create similar drones.
Instead, the only noticeable strategy of the Ukrainian authorities in the war is to catch and send as many people as possible to the front. It seems that the number of those who agreed is rapidly decreasing. And this is evidenced not only by the number of those who flee at all stages on the way to the front, but also by cases when men resist those who try to forcibly mobilize them.
In various parts of the country, mobilizers began to be beaten, although some of them had previously served at the front.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c861g62njpgo
https://informator.ua/ru/u-cherkasah-pobili-pracivnika-tck-pid-chas-perevirki-dokumentiv-vin-viyavivsya-kiborgom
In Kharkiv, a serviceman who had previously been mobilized into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine opened fire on teenagers who allegedly called him a "mobilizer." The incident occurred in March of this year. https://24tv.ua/viyskoviy-strilyav-po-pidlitkah-harkovi-vin-obrazivsya-shho-yogo_n2829062
This is very sad, although expected. Will the authorities change their attitude towards mobilization and people? What is the real goal of inciting opposition in society and discrediting the army? How does this help russia? I don't have good answers to these questions.
Ukrainian media outlet Ukrainska Pravda published an article stating that Andriy Portnov, a shadowy curator of the courts and a lawyer close to fugitive ex-president Yanukovych, was in Ukraine a few days before his assassination in Madrid and met with top officials responsible for the work of law enforcement agencies. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/05/23/7513767/
If this is true, then even more uncomfortable questions arise - how can such people freely travel to and from Ukraine, what does the current government have in common with them?
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russia has intensified strikes on Ukraine, with the highest number of drones and missiles launched in a single night yet. At least 14 people, including three children, were killed and dozens injured, Ukrainian officials said. The attack was the second large-scale assault on the country in 48 hours, coming a day after the Ukrainian capital Kyiv suffered one of the heaviest assaults since the start of the russian invasion. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2rx8kxdm4o
They didn't let me sleep again, but at least I recorded some good audio for Cicely again. The background for the gunshots and explosions was the light sound of rain.
Head of the Communications Department of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuriy Ignat reported that after a long break, the russians again used the Kh-22 missile to strike Ukraine. The mass of its warhead is 950 kg and the missile has an acceptable inaccuracy in the radius of destruction of 600 m. Unfortunately, the ballistics flew over different regions today and it was not possible to intercept it today, - Ignat emphasized. He also noted that the russians launched a record number of "Shaheeds" and simulator drones over Ukraine, of which there were 298 in total. This suggests that the enemy is increasing the production of UAVs. https://www.unian.ua/war/nichna-ataka-rf-pislya-pauzi-vdarila-raketoyu-h-22-balistiku-mi-ne-zbili-13018836.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
This is bad news and a possible change in tactics. If they do this for several days in a row, it could exhaust the Ukrainian air defense.
On Monday, May 26, the Netherlands will officially complete the transfer of the promised 24 F-16 fighters to Ukraine, said Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/05/25/7513970/
The official loss of three such aircraft was reported, but given the intensity of their use, this is a good figure.
Despite its declared readiness for peace, russia continues active hostilities along the entire front line. The russian Federation has planned a new major offensive for June. Three more regions of Ukraine will be under its sights, which the aggressor will try to seize in order to increase its "appetite" in the upcoming peace "bargainings," writes Bild https://today.ua/479192-u-chervni-rf-planuye-novij-velikij-nastup-agresor-pragne-zahopiti-she-tri-oblasti-ukrayini-bild/
The potential of the russian army at the front has begun to weaken, so the summer offensive is probably the last way for the russians to break through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Washington Post believes that next year the occupiers may face a serious shortage of manpower and weapons. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/24/trump-putin-battlefield-ceasefire-ukraine/
I think I heard the same thing last year, only Ukraine now has much less support from the West, and russia is constantly improving its army. We still don't know the true price Ukraine is paying for holding the front line, but I haven't heard of any soldiers returning from the front who weren't disabled or in a coffin.
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The upsurge in attacks is creating a situation where if Trump really wants to end this war, he's going to have to up the ante for Putin. Or, he's just going to have to accept letting things progress until one or both sides give up, and be called a Loser or a Quitter by his detractors - the latter of which he hates more than anything.
If he decides to up the ante, he won't do it in the same orthodox way that Biden did, sending money to be embezzled by the Ukraine authorities. He will do something unexpected... I'm not sure what, of course.
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The upsurge in attacks is creating a situation where if Trump really wants to end this war, he's going to have to up the ante for Putin. Or, he's just going to have to accept letting things progress until one or both sides give up, and be called a Loser or a Quitter by his detractors - the latter of which he hates more than anything.
If he decides to up the ante, he won't do it in the same orthodox way that Biden did, sending money to be embezzled by the Ukraine authorities. He will do something unexpected... I'm not sure what, of course.
I hope you are right, but I’m not very hopeful because of his record, despite his comments today about Putin. (Having said that, I do hope I’m wrong.)
Trump has consistently given the carrot to Putin and the stick to Zelensky, which has resulted in an emboldened Putin who has steadily increased his attacks and reduced efforts at negotiation. It’s open and obvious. Yet all he’s received from Trump is silence or mild criticism. The first priority for Trump seems to be maintaining relatively good relations with Putin for reasons I’ve mentioned previously.
In addition, he has since the beginning of peace efforts been mostly blaming Ukraine and Zelensky for the war and setting them up to take all the blame for a failure of the peace negotiation. With his fragile ego, Trump will never admit making mistakes even if it takes twisting reality into a pretzel.
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The airstrikes continued tonight, although it was a little quieter on my side than yesterday. https://trueua.info/news/u-kyyevi-zranku-lunaly-vybukhy-shcho-vidomo
The US president said on Truth Social on Sunday: "Something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely crazy. He is needlessly killing a lot of people."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Trump's comment was a "very important moment... connected to an emotional overload of everyone involved" but added the russian president was taking decisions "necessary for the security" of russia.
Trump posted his "crazy" remark shortly afterwards, adding on Truth Social: "I've always said that he wants all of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that's proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of russia!"
But the US president also had strong words for Zelensky, saying that he was "doing his country no favours by talking the way he does".
"Everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don't like it, and it better stop," Trump wrote of Zelensky.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g2wz74jdzo
russian troops have eliminated a Ukrainian "pocket" southwest of Toretsk after a four-month offensive operation to level the front line south and southwest of Kostyantynivka and captured several more settlements, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in its latest report. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-25-2025
On Saturday, May 24, another prisoner exchange took place between Ukraine and russia as part of the "thousand for a thousand" agreement that Kyiv and Moscow reached during talks in Istanbul. In total, 5,757 Ukrainians have returned from russian captivity since 2022. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c753q6453vqo
Many Ukrainians are unhappy that among those released there are no Azov soldiers, whom Zelensky ordered to surrender during the defense of Mariupol back in 2022, but any released ones are better than none. There is no official information, but it is said that russia holds several times more Ukrainian prisoners than vice versa. Perhaps among them are civilians from the occupied territories.
Britain, France, Germany and the United States have lifted restrictions on the supply of military equipment to Ukraine, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said.
According to him, "long-range strikes with Western weapons on russian territory are now permitted." https://censor.net/ua/n3554381
The only question is whether such weapons will be provided to Ukraine?
It may have to be bought, but there is no more money for this. There is a UAH 400 billion “hole” in the state budget of Ukraine for defense, and it is still unclear where to get it. This was reported on May 26 by the First Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Financial and Tax Policy Yaroslav Zheleznyak. Also, according to him, “nothing is clear with the financing of partners, and there will also clearly be a problem with exports to the EU.” https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/331952-v-byudzhete-na-oboronu-dyra-na-400-mlrd-pervyy-zamestitel-glavy-nalogovogo-komiteta-rady-zheleznyak
Since the beginning of the great russian invasion, the EU decision to grant temporary protection to Ukrainians has become the basis, thanks to which more than 4 million Ukrainian citizens have received the opportunity to live a safer life in Europe for themselves and their children.
This status also gave the right to work and access to public services - education, medicine.
So in addition to security, Ukrainians have had the opportunity to see for themselves what it is like to live, work, raise children, pay taxes or receive treatment in Europe.
For some, this has become a dream come true, for others - an incentive to return to Ukraine despite the shelling.
The war has been going on for more than three years, and protection is increasingly perceived as something permanent. But this is not so. Currently, the EU decision on temporary protection for Ukrainians is valid until March 2026. However, Europe is already thinking about what to do with it next. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c2499np3ep7o
Today, one of my acquaintances was captured. He was taken to some sort of distribution point, which he says looks like a regular prison. But his phone was not taken away and he promises to keep me informed of what happens next. Of course, no mobilization procedures were followed, but he has illnesses that prevent him from serving. We'll see if that makes any difference.
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Wlad, I’m very sorry to hear about your acquaintance being detained for potential military service. I hope he won’t have to serve.
Good news that weapons use restrictions have been eliminated. I haven’t yet seen verification in the news here that American weapons are included (I may have overlooked it.) Also good news that another POW exchange took place, at least some are surviving to come home.
I just read for myself the transcripts of what Trump said and what he posted today about Putin, much of which you posted.
Sigh.
It reminds me of Police Captain Renault in Casablanca who leads a raid on Rick’s casino, saying “I’m shocked! Shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!” This is followed immediately by a croupier giving him his winnings, to which Renault replies “Oh, thank you very much.”
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There were no drones in Kyiv today and I managed to get some sleep.
In the morning, my friend called and said that they were to be lined up in the yard and taken to military units, offering to pick them up. Those who were not picked up are being brought back. Those who do not want to go continue to sit in the basement. This is a video from the same basement - https://www.facebook.com/100044444803752/posts/1257058425785639/ There is no access to medicine but it doesn't look so bad.
On Monday, May 26, a crowd of men and women attacked workers of the mobilization center in Cherkasy. A video of the incident was posted on social media. The Cherkasy Regional Mobilization Center reported that the incident occurred during a check of the men’s military records on the street.
“Citizens provoked a conflict with servicemen of the mobilization center. Currently, police are identifying the perpetrators, witnesses, and eyewitnesses, and the necessary investigative and operational measures are being taken,” the mobilization center said. https://sud.ua/uk/news/video/332043-v-cherkassakh-tolpa-muzhchin-i-zhenschin-napala-na-sotrudnikov-ttsk-video
The Command of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reminded citizens of their responsibility due to the increase in cases of obstruction of the lawful activities of military personnel of mobilization centers.
"Recently, the number of video materials recording deliberate obstruction of the activities of military personnel of mobilization centers has significantly increased on the Internet and social networks, with some citizens openly encouraging others to take such actions," the message says.
The Ground Forces emphasized that any deliberate obstruction of the performance of military duties by military personnel, including threats, moral pressure, the use of physical force or damage to vehicles, is a serious offense and is classified under Article 114-1 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. Such actions are punishable by imprisonment for a term of 5 to 8 years.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1075092.html
The West provided Ukraine with up to a hundred missiles for long-range strikes on the russian Federation, and they hit targets in the occupied territories and in the immediate radius of the borders. The partners can lift the restrictions, but then it will turn out that these missiles are too few to cause harm to the russians. Forbes wrote about the situation with missiles for long-range strikes on the russian Federation. https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2025/05/27/ukraine-can-now-target-russian-bases-with-western-missiles-but-how-many-remain/?ctpv=searchpage
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So we now there is yet another two week deadline from Trump for Putin to show that he is “serious” about negations for peace in Ukraine. I expect that this will work as well on Putin now as it has previously. (This doesn’t work on misbehaving children either, but I digress.)
Meantime civilians and their infrastructure continue to be destroyed by Russia in increasing attacks. To most people that would already indicate a very sincere lack of interest in negotiations by Putin.
Here is a damning article about ineffective western sanctions on Russian exports of oil and gas. Bottom line, due to half-hearted sanctions, Russia continues to receive more revenue from the west for energy than Ukraine has received in aid. Spoiler warning: Trump’s idea of very low cost OPEC (Saudi) oil will not hamper Russia.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxk454kxz8o
It’s worth noting in this context that Trump is trying to kill US alternative energy efforts and increase use of oil and gas, a strategic blunder IMO.
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I don't know if anyone still believes what Trump and putin are saying, but I don't expect anything from the next round of talks in Istanbul, which is scheduled for Monday, June 2.
Volodymyr Zelensky accused Moscow of "doing everything it can to ensure the next possible meeting is fruitless". putin and Zelensky are not expected to attend the talks on Monday. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said russia's ceasefire proposals would not be made public, and Moscow would only entertain the idea of a high-level summit if meaningful progress was achieved in preliminary discussions between the two countries.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93yv5zpk1ko
The first round of talks two weeks ago in Istanbul brought no breakthrough, but achieved a prisoner of war swap.
russia appears to launch new offensive in Ukraine amid peace talks, reported in The New York Times. Moscow’s dual campaign of intensified frontline attacks and bombardment of Ukrainian cities has further reduced the prospects for an end to the fighting.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/29/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-offensive.html
The US President's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, called Moscow's concerns about NATO expansion justified.
"We have repeatedly said that Ukraine's accession to NATO is not on our agenda. And we are not the only country that says that. I can probably name you four countries that are members of NATO," Kellogg said, adding that joining the Alliance requires the support of all 32 countries.
According to him, NATO's expansion to the east is one of the issues that russia will raise.
"And they are not only talking about Ukraine. They are talking about Georgia. They are talking about Moldova. And we say: 'Okay, comprehensively, we can stop NATO expansion that is approaching your borders. This is their security concern,'" Kellogg added. https://abcnews.go.com/International/video/gen-keith-kellogg-trump-frustrated-russias-level-unreasonableness-122316532
According to the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT) participating state, russian-flagged cargo vessels delivered as many as 9 million rounds of mixed artillery and multiple rocket launcher ammunition from the DPRK to russia in 2024. Using open source information, the Open Source Centre (OSC) has estimated that russian vessels delivered 4.2 to 5.8 million rounds of 122mm and 152mm munitions between August 2023 and March 2025.7
According to an MSMT participating state, between January and December 2024 alone the DPRK transferred to russia at least 100 ballistic missiles, which were subsequently launched into Ukraine to destroy civilian infrastructure and terrorize populated areas such as Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia. The DPRK also transferred to russia elements of three brigade sets of heavy artillery, including DPRK-origin 170mm long range self-propelled artillery pieces, 240mm long-range multiple rocket launchers, more than 200 total vehicles, self-propelled guns, multiple rocket launchers, and reload vehicles for both types of weapons. https://msmt.info/Publications/detail/MSMT%20Report/4195
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I agree that very few believe what is said. It’s only window dressing to hide the weak and ineffective position of Trump v. Putin.
Keith Kellog might as well say that the US thinks Russian expansion by force is justified, since it’s the conclusion that Putin will naturally draw. He could be even more helpful and honest by drawing a map of countries that could be invaded and seized without provoking a response from NATO.
Now Russia buys or trades goods and knowledge for large amounts of arms and equipment from DPRK (and Iran) instead of the reverse. Although Russia can still feed itself while DPRK often cannot, so that’s one thing in favor of such a strong imperial power. /s
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Another difficult week is over, although there will be even more difficult ones ahead. At least for a couple of days there were no drones and missiles and I was able to sleep normally.
Due to the workload at work, I didn’t even pay attention to the fact that yesterday in Kyiv there were large raids on men, when they blocked the roads and checked all the cars and buses. I don’t follow the messages on messengers on this topic, but it is being discussed actively on the forums.
But I also have to be careful. As of today, more than half of the previousely "limitedly fit" citizens have passed the repeated military medical commission, 99% of them were recognized as fit for military service. This was stated by the MP, member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Fedir Venislavsky during a briefing. https://www.unian.ua/society/mobilizaciya-v-ukrajini-99-obmezheno-pridatnih-na-vlk-viznayut-pridatnimi-do-sluzhbi-13022727.html
That is, Ukrainian doctors perform miracles that are inaccessible to Jesus - they heal 99% of the sick, often without even seeing them.
Another deputy claims that everyone who has not passed the medical commission by June 5 will be automatically deemed fit. https://today.ua/479322-ukrayinciv-yaki-ne-projdut-povtorno-vlk-avtomatichno-viznayut-pridatnimi-i-mobilizuyut/
On the one hand, you can understand the Ukrainian generals - soldiers no longer need to endure great physical exertion. Their task is to get to the nearest trench and die there from being hit by a drone or an air bomb. And their state of health in this case does not matter at all, since the presence of a soldier in the trench will still be ensured.
Perhaps this is why the government protects the police and other strong, healthy, and armed people. I saw an interview with the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, filmed several months ago, in which he convinced a journalist that the police were unfit for war because they were taught to shoot ordinary criminals in the city, not to fight in the field. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX0YwwY-oiE
On May 29, an incident occurred in the city of Kamianets-Podilskyi between a group of civilians and representatives of the mobilization center. It is reported that about 100 people took part in the fight, both servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and civilians were injured. In addition, a service vehicle was damaged.
https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/masova-sutychka-z-ttsk-stalasia-u-kamiantsi-podilskomu-100-liudey-zablokuvaly-avto-2839034.html
https://novyny.live/tck-uk/sirskii-nakazav-rozsliduvati-pobittia-ttsk-u-kamiantsi-podilskomu-257619.html
Additionally, an explosion occurred near a car belonging to a representative of the mobilization center in Kharkiv Oblast. The serviceman was seriously injured as a result of the incident. https://harkiv.novyny.live/na-kharkivshchini-bilia-avto-viiskovogo-stavsia-vibukh-257372.html
This is a very bad sign and the problem is clearly not with the people whom the authorities accuse of disobedience.
My acquaintance moved even closer to the front. According to him, he was promised that he would serve in the rear of the supply line, but like the others, he was given military documents, according to which he is already fully fit for service. I think he will soon be at the front.
The Ukrainian military will soon be left without the main tool for detecting and destroying the enemy using civilian Mavic 3 drones, hundreds of thousands of which are in service with the Defense Forces and for which military personnel and volunteers often raise money. Since the beginning of 2025, the Chinese company DJI has stopped their production.
Instead, DJI has introduced a new drone in the series - the Mavic 4 Pro. It is he who should replace one of the company's most popular drones in the world, logically continuing the series of drones that are easy to learn and versatile in functionality.
It would seem that there is no problem, but the issue is not only in the drones themselves, but also in the infrastructure set up for them. Remote controls, antennas, batteries, software, mounting systems - much of this will have to be replaced.
In addition, the political factor remains risky. Zelensky has already stated that China is limiting the sale of drones of this type to Europe, but at the same time is helping russia more. https://mezha.media/oboronka/dji-mavic-3-znyali-z-virobnictva-shcho-bude-dali-ta-chi-ye-ukrajinski-analogi-302336/
Vitali Klitschko was a heavyweight boxer before becoming mayor of Kyiv, but now faces a fight for control after the Ukrainian president curbed his powers. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko has sharply criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, accusing him of authoritarianism and of undermining democratic institutions under the cover of wartime, according to The Times.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/klitschko-accuses-zelenskyy-of-wartime-authoritarianism-in-comments-to-the-times-50518491.html
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Today I woke up very early from the explosions of air defense, but it seems that there was no destruction in Kyiv this time. The air alert lasted for more than 9 hours, and the number of drones and missiles with which the enemy attacked Ukraine set a new record - 479 air attack vehicles, of which 472 were drones, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.
https://ua.news/ua/war-vs-rf/vorog-zapustiv-po-ukrayini-rekordnu-kilkist-droniv-povitriani-sili
Also, after the russian strike on the 239th training ground, where many Ukrainian soldiers were killed and wounded, the Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Mykhailo Drapatiy, who was appointed to the position only at the end of last year, resigned. At the same time, the Major General noted that circular responsibility and impunity are poison for the army. Drapatiy noted that he tried to eradicate it from the Land Forces, but failed. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/drapatiy-podav-vidstavku-pislya-rosiyskogo-1748784060.html
russian investigators have blamed sabotage for the collapse of two separate bridges near the Ukrainian border. In the Bryansk region, a road bridge collapsed, sending heavy trucks crashing down on to a moving passenger train and killing at least seven people.
Hours later in neighbouring Kursk, a railway bridge collapsed while a freight train was passing over it, injuring one of the drivers.
Ukraine's military intelligence says a russian military train has been derailed outside Melitopol, southern Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cq69qlgdg93o
But the main news of the day was undoubtedly the results of the unprecedented attacks on кussian territory. Explosions were heard in the russian city of Severomorsk, which is located near the Barents Sea, and later a fire broke out. It is currently known that the fire is taking place at a naval base where nuclear submarines belonging to the so-called "nuclear triad" of the russian Federation are maintained. https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/708637-vibuhi-v-syevyeromorsku-masshtabna-pozhezha-vinikla-bilya-bazi-pidvodnih-chovniv-video?utm_source=ukrnet_news
Four airfields attacked across a vast area of russia and, according to Ukrainian sources, more than 40 aircraft were hit, including some of Moscow’s huge strategic bombers. According to a statement from Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, “enemy strategic bombers are burning en masse in russia”.
It has released dramatic video which it says shows a drone attack at the Belaya airbase in Irkutsk oblast, in Siberia. Bombers are under attack, with explosions visible and smoke rising. Reports suggest other aircraft have been attacked at the Olenya airbase, near Murmansk. russian media is reporting the attack in Murmansk but says air defences are working. The attack in Irkutsk is also being reported. Witnesses nearby filmed on their phones how drones took off from trucks parked near the airports and headed towards the airport, where they exploded.
The air bases are about 2,000 and 5,000 kilometres (1,243 miles and 3,107 miles) away from Kyiv, respectively.
It is reported that several other air bases, including Severniy in Ivanovo region, Dyagilevo in Ryazan region and Engels-2 in Saratov region, and Ukrainka in the far-east region of Amur, have also been targeted by Ukrainian drones.
https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/708631-bpla-atakuvali-aviabazi-olenya-ta-belaya-v-rf-urazheno-40-litakiv-podrobici?utm_source=ukrnet_news
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cgrg7kelk45t
The fact that only those components of russia's military potential that directly threaten the West are being selectively hit says it all. The CIA and MI6 will not tell anyone anything in our lifetime, but thank you for that!
The latest wave of drone strikes on the Kremlin's military assets comes hours before russia and Ukraine are set for the next round of peace talks in Istanbul.
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The attack on Russia was great news, and I hope this will get hopefully gets Putin to the table.
I'm sure his latest nuclear threat to the west will be sent any minute now.
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Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the Heroes!
The Ukrainian drone attacks in far flung areas of Russia are brilliant and spectacular successes and I congratulate everyone involved who made it happen. I believe that there must have been a number of operatives inside Russia and I hope that they were able to escape to safety, or soon will.
What an amazingly asymmetrical operation it was. The cost ratio is astronomical with low cost drones destroying many essentially irreplaceable strategic bombers and probably other high value hardware that we haven’t learned about yet (possibly submarine related?).
I just read this opinion column which highlights Ukrainian resolve and ingenuity in using recent technological advances to dramatically change the battlefield in actual practice. In the process ushering in a new era of far less costly weapons which obsolete expensive traditional weapons platforms, especially manned ones.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/06/01/ukraine-drone-attack-russia-bombers/
It will be interesting to see what military analysts say about this in the coming days.
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Right on cue as I had predicted, the "I'll destroy the world if you fight back" message has been received. I've lost count as to how many times the world has been destroyed in the last 3 years.
In English, we have a saying, "when the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail."
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For most russians, the attack on the planes went unnoticed - official news reports said the Ukrainian drone attack had been successfully repelled and small fires were quickly extinguished. Instead, the focus shifted to the victims of bridge-blow accidents.
A second round of direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have ended without a major breakthrough, and only an agreement between the warring sides to swap more prisoners of war. Ukrainian negotiators said russia had again rejected an "unconditional ceasefire" - a key demand by Kyiv and its allies in Europe and the US.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyng4dknwwo
In Poland, the right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki won the presidential election by a margin of 50.9% - 49.1% over liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski - as the first step to a return to power. Poland's president has limited influence on foreign and defence policy, but can propose and veto bills. Tusk's government lacks a big enough parliamentary majority to overturn a presidential veto.
Nawrocki emphasized anti-Ukrainianism to a greater extent than Rafał Trzaskowski. Not only did he claim that he would not send Polish troops to the Dnipro on a stabilization mission (Trzaskowski said the same thing), but he also emphasized that he did not see Ukraine in NATO. In this respect, he presented an opinion different from that of the President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda. But it is consistent with what representatives of the Donald Trump administration say.
He agreed to a veto against Ukraine's presence in the Alliance, signing a list of demands presented to him by Sławomir Mentzen in order to win votes from Confederation voters. Today, the question is how flexible he will be in his approach to this announcement in the coming months of his term, taking into account the situation in the east. https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art42438741-silna-armia-i-weto-ws-ukrainy-czyli-bezpieczenstwo-okiem-karola-nawrockiego
In addition, during the elections, he actively used the topic of the Volyn tragedy and actually fueled the negative attitude of Poles towards Ukrainians.
In Poland itself, the first president, Lech Walesa, reacted very sharply to Nawrocki's victory. "I will not console you. We must face reality. These elections have revealed the whole truth about Polish society. Democracy in Poland collapsed on June 1, 2025," Walesa wrote. He strongly criticized the moral qualities of the future president.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crk28vm77d6o
Time will tell what the future holds for relations between Poland and Ukraine, but the Poles' choice demonstrates the division of society, where, according to my daughter, educated people voted for Rafal. Trzaskowski has three higher educations, was a scholarship holder in Oxford and Paris. He has been in politics for over a decade and a half: he was elected as a member of the European Parliament and the Polish Sejm, was the Minister of Digital Development of Poland and the State Secretary of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Detractors say that Trzaskowski's problem is his image as a regular in elite political salons, far from the problems and hopes of the average Pole.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cwy7xn4zg0no
In any case, the attitude of Poles towards Ukrainians is constantly deteriorating, although Ukrainians working in Poland annually pay approximately 18 billion zlotys to the country's state budget in the form of taxes and social contributions. This is almost 5 billion dollars. This was reported by former Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka.
The former official emphasized the significant contribution of Ukrainian workers to the Polish economy. According to him, some Ukrainians in Poland receive social benefits, but their total amount per year is no more than 2 billion zlotys. But they bring 18 billion zlotys to the budget.
At the same time, Ukrainians are also important in other areas of life in a European country. Belka noted that they create new values and contribute to the development of society. https://inpoland.net.pl/novosti/skilki-pracevlashtovani-ukra%D1%97nci-prinesli-do-byudzhetu-polshhi/
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Right on cue as I had predicted, the "I'll destroy the world if you fight back" message has been received. I've lost count as to how many times the world has been destroyed in the last 3 years.
In English, we have a saying, "when the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail."
Putin really needs to come up with new threat. That one is all worn out.
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Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) says it has managed to strike the Crimea bridge with underwater explosives following an operation lasting "several months". russian media initially said the bridge was briefly closed to traffic but that it had reopened by 10:00 local time. However, later in the day, local authorities warned the bridge was closed again.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz708lpzgxro
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Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) says it has managed to strike the Crimea bridge with underwater explosives following an operation lasting "several months". russian media initially said the bridge was briefly closed to traffic but that it had reopened by 10:00 local time. However, later in the day, local authorities warned the bridge was closed again.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz708lpzgxro
Clearly Ukraine is the world’s leader in the emerging field of relatively inexpensive but powerful attack UAVs and UUVs operated remotely over great distances.
Credible reports say that the US government was not informed of these attacks until they were well underway. This is unsurprising given the pro Russian bias of the administration and the recent amateurish security lapses at highest levels of the state and defense departments.
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Right on cue as I had predicted, the "I'll destroy the world if you fight back" message has been received. I've lost count as to how many times the world has been destroyed in the last 3 years.
In English, we have a saying, "when the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail."
Putin really needs to come up with new threat. That one is all worn out.
They should, if that were possible. But, I really do think it's the only tool he has left. The last three years have revealed to the world that they are not a military power, and what is Russia without fear and threats of aggression? (Even if, in the case of nukes, it's a threat he dares not to use).
If they can't bully people, they are forced to face the fact that they are a country with a large territory but a tiny GDP, due to their corrupt and flawed system of government.
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The powerful attack by Ukrainian UAVs on russian strategic airfields on June 1 allegedly increased the risk of an escalation of the conflict. However, the United States is trying to prevent this.
This was stated by the US Special Representative for Ukraine and russia, Keith Kellogg, in an interview with Fox News.
He indignantly stated that when during a war "you attack part of the national survival system of the enemy, in particular its nuclear triad, then this significantly increases your risk level."
"You don't know what the other side will do next. You are not sure, and that is what they (Ukraine) actually did... I think that is what we are trying to avoid... We would not like to get to that point," said Kellogg. https://www.foxnews.com/video/6373840523112
For the first time since the U.S. created the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (known as Ramstein) three years ago to coordinate military assistance to Ukraine, the Pentagon chief will not attend a meeting of more than 50 other defense leaders on Wednesday. It is the latest in a series of steps the U.S. has taken to distance itself from the military action in Ukraine. And it comes after French President Emmanuel Macron warned at a security conference last weekend that the U.S. and others risked dangerous double standards if they focused on a potential conflict with China at the cost of abandoning Ukraine. https://unn.ua/news/ochilnyk-pentahonu-vpershe-propustyt-ramshtain-ap
Vladimir putin has said he will have to respond to Ukraine's major drone attack on russian airbases, US President Donald Trump has warned. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2r108l785o
The last few days have been quiet in Kyiv, although every day we expect a large-scale air attack.
The US Embassy again warns of the threat of new russian shelling. russia has increased the intensity of its missile and drone attacks against Ukraine in recent weeks, and there is currently a continued risk of significant air attacks. https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kyiv-ukraine-june-4-2025/
russian troops launched a missile strike on the territory of one of the training units in the Poltava region this afternoon. There are wounded soldiers among the soldiers. This was reported by the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/06/04/novyna/suspilstvo/rosiya-vdaryla-raketoyu-po-navchalnomu-pidrozdilu-zsu-poltavshhyni-ye-poraneni
My friend, who is not responding yet, may be in this camp right now.
In the Rivne region, employees of the territorial recruitment center detained a man riding a bicycle. The incident occurred right in the middle of the street. According to preliminary data, the military stopped the man without explanation, after which they used tear gas, beat him and forcibly dragged him into a service car.
Eyewitnesses report that the man resisted and shouted loudly. However, the military acted aggressively and did not respond to requests from passers-by. Later, it became known that the detainee was unfit for military service due to health reasons. Despite this, he was still taken to a military unit.
The State Bureau of Investigation has opened criminal proceedings and notes that the actions of the TCC employees are classified as abuse of authority committed with the use of violence. If proven guilty, the perpetrators face punishment of up to six years in prison. https://kriminal.tv/news/shestirichnij_termin_za_bus_scho_zagrozhuje_pratsivnikam_ttsk_u_rivnenskij_oblasti.html
The Ukrainian bar is once again faced with manifestations of extra-procedural influence on lawyers with the aim of preventing the exercise of their legal powers related to the provision of professional legal assistance to clients. During the proceedings in the Podilsky district court of Kyiv criminal case, according to two lawyers who participated in this hearing, the prosecutor — the procedural opponent in the case — called police officers to the court who tried to forcefully mobilize the lawyers. https://unba.org.ua/news/10356-mobilizaciya-advokativ-u-sudi-naau-fiksue-chergovij-fakt-tisku.html
Despite constant fatigue and lack of free time, I could not resist the temptation to make a dozen QSO when 50MHz opened yesterday. All of Europe from the UK and Sweden to Italy and France was heard on the air, although I am limited by the power and how the tuner allows me to tune my 28MHz antenna.
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Right on cue as I had predicted, the "I'll destroy the world if you fight back" message has been received. I've lost count as to how many times the world has been destroyed in the last 3 years.
In English, we have a saying, "when the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail."
Putin really needs to come up with new threat. That one is all worn out.
They should, if that were possible. But, I really do think it's the only tool he has left. The last three years have revealed to the world that they are not a military power, and what is Russia without fear and threats of aggression? (Even if, in the case of nukes, it's a threat he dares not to use).
If they can't bully people, they are forced to face the fact that they are a country with a large territory but a tiny GDP, due to their corrupt and flawed system of government.
I was being sarcastic. But, of course you’re correct, it’s the only credible force he has left, and the only thing that prevented Russia from losing the war early on to Ukraine supplied with longe range weaponry, and permission to use it, from the US and EU.
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Wlad, I hope that your friend, possibly in the attacked military camp, is uninjured. Of course I also hope he will not be sent to the front. What an awful situation.
Is there any chance that the TCC employees involved in snatching the man riding a bicycle will actually be held to account?
I watched the Fox interviews of Keith Kellogg. The first one, prior to the audacious drone attacks, astounded me when he gave support for Russia’s justification for attacking Ukraine, is partly because NATO is a threat and getting too close, in their view. Talk about giving ammunition to the enemy! It doesn’t take much work on Google to find Russian and friendly news reports immediately trumpeting that Kellogg “admitted” that NATO is a [offensive] threat to Russia.
Oops! The Russians will be quoting him for years.
In the second interview, after the drone attacks, Kellogg makes the reasonable point that attacking strategic nuclear force elements is increases the risk level because it’s uncertain what the Russians will do. However he omitted that those same strategic bombers are routinely used to launch very destructive conventional weapons on civilians in Ukraine, making them legitimate and urgent targets for defense of Ukraine.
Again, this gives the Russians unjustified support for their indignation over the attack. To be fair, Kellogg then qualified his statement somewhat by referring to the as yet unverified drone attack on the Northern Fleet headquarters (a major base for Russian nuclear missile submarines) and not involved directly in the war AFAIK, but the damage had been done.
Is Kellogg biased toward Russia? Is he merely careless with his comments? Is he playing a “good cop, bad cop” psychological game with Ukraine against Russia? Or, is he simply being very careful not to cross the famously thin skinned Trump who likes Putin, is clearly distancing the US from Ukraine, and seems to be losing interest?
On the TCC employees, do you think that there is any chance of them going to trial, found guilty and punished?
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Wlad, I hope that your friend, possibly in the attacked military camp, is uninjured. Of course I also hope he will not be sent to the front. What an awful situation.
He called back and said that it happened in a neighboring military unit, but his morale is very low. And this is not surprising, because he was previously held in a place where there was a riot of other people who were illegally held there. On Wednesday morning, videos began to spread on social networks, showing men arguing with representatives of this mobilization center. This is the main gathering point in Kyiv before being sent to training units.
Then they try to barricade themselves in a room, after which law enforcement officers enter it. A video is also being distributed in which men in military uniform beat a man in civilian clothes tied to a bed.
Later, the Kyiv City Mobilization Center responded to the appearance of the video. Their message on Facebook says that "during the preparation of teams to send citizens called up for mobilization to training centers, riots began." Law enforcement agencies arrived at the scene to stabilize the situation. They also added that the men called up for mobilization were then sent to training centers according to distribution.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4gr5zdx0yxo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuuRxbXnfBA
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/63HbQVJDQCg
And three years ago we laughed at the russians who did the same thing, only the russians quickly stopped such shameful behavior.
I wonder how soon the Ukrainian army will start using barrier units?
It is interesting that the courts refuse to consider complaints about the illegal detention of people in mobilization centers, citing the fact that the complainants are not a person detained within the meaning of the Code of Criminal Procedure of Ukraine, and the complaint filed is not related to the pre-trial investigation of criminal proceedings, which excludes the powers of the investigating judge in these proceedings.
The Court of Appeal notes that the detention of a citizen by employees of mobilization centers and his detention without a corresponding court decision is not subject to appeal to the investigating judge, since such legal relations are regulated by the current legislation on mobilization and mobilization training, the verification of the legality of whose actions in such a case does not fall within the powers of the investigating judge and is not subject to consideration in accordance with the procedure of the Code of Criminal Procedure of Ukraine. https://reyestr.court.gov.ua/Review/127525044
Also today, June 5, the russian military hit the Kherson Regional State Administration building several times with guided aerial bombs, which is now completely destroyed. https://www.5.ua/regiony/rosiiany-znyshchyly-budivliu-khersonskoi-oda-foto-352936.html
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So sorry for your friend to be caught up in the forced mobilization and now this situation.
George Will today has a good opinion column about the failure of some western politicians to grasp Putin’s aims and motives.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/06/06/putin-russia-ukraine-trump/
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That night, neither I nor most Kyivans and residents of other cities were able to sleep. russia again launched large-scale drone and missile strikes on Kyiv, as well as the city of Lutsk and the Ternopil region in the north-west of the country. At least three people were killed and 49 injured in the strikes. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg7zy1jq7no
https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/332904-v-kieve-vo-vremya-likvidatsii-posledstviy-udarov-rf-pogibli-troe-spasateley
A section of the metro in my area was damaged and there were major traffic jams, which is why I decided not to go to the office at all, which only a few people got to today. https://sud.ua/uk/news/video/332906-ocheredi-na-ostanovkakh-i-kosmicheskie-tseny-na-taksi-video-transportnogo-kollapsa-v-kieve
The russian army is intensifying its offensive in the Sumy region, which it began three months ago. According to military analysts, the russians are already 20-25 km from the outskirts of the densely populated regional center. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c30821r2qmjo
But Ukraine's ability to resist a russian attack is rapidly diminishing.
Ukraine’s drone strikes deep into russia delivered a humiliating blow to Moscow last weekend. Kyiv’s defenders celebrated the attack as a triumph of modern warfare and a warning to russian President Vladimir putin. But the extraordinary operation got a different response inside the White House: anger.
The Atlantic wrote that Donald Trump has openly vented in recent weeks about putin’s unwillingness to end the war. But since Sunday’s attack, which hit a series of russian military airfields, the president has privately expressed frustration that the strike could escalate the conflict, according to three administration officials and an outside adviser to the White House. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/06/ukraine-russia-trump-drones/683043/
Ukraine's government has criticised a decision to take billions of euros of russian wealth frozen in Europe and hand it to Western investors, warning that it weakened Europe's stand against Moscow. The criticism follows a move last month by Belgium's Euroclear to take 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion) of russian investor cash held at the clearing firm to pay Westerners who lost out when Moscow seized their money held in russia. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ukraine-hits-out-europes-payout-frozen-russian-cash-2025-06-05/
A person died in a car explosion in the Bereziv district of the Odessa region. The media and publics are writing about the death of the head of the mobilization center. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/v-odeskiy-oblasti-vibukhnuv-avtomobil-ttsk-voenkom-zaginuv-na-mistsi-zmi
I don't know if this is the work of russian special services with the aim of disrupting the mobilization, or someone from the illegally mobilized or their relatives, or because of the huge amount of dirty money that passes through the officials of the mobilization centers, but in any case it is a very bad thing.
At the very least, it is proposed to include a court's recognition of the illegality of mobilization in the list of grounds for dismissal from service, since currently even a court's recognition of the illegality of forced mobilization is not a basis for the dismissal of such a mobilized person. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/332897-priznanie-sudom-protivopravnosti-mobilizatsii-predlagaetsya-vnesti-v-perechen-osnovaniy-dlya-uvolneniya-so-sluzhby
As russia’s war against Ukraine drags on into its fourth year, many Ukrainian refugees have integrated and settled in Europe. Kyiv is seeking ways to motivate them to return home. https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/05/kyiv-will-not-force-ukrainian-refugees-to-come-back-home-but-it-hopes-they-will
The URC2025 will take place in Rome on 10 and 11 July 2025. It will be the fourth Ukraine Recovery Conference, continuing the annual series of high-level political events dedicated to the swift recovery and long-term reconstruction of Ukraine since the beginning of russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine.
Governments, international organisations, financial institutions, businesses, regions, municipalities and civil society will come together, united by a shared commitment to strengthen the resilience of Ukraine for as long as needed. The participants will represent the various stakeholder groups, demonstrating their strong engagement for Ukraine’s future.
The conference will reflect the Lugano principles, including a “whole of society” approach to recovery through the meaningful participation of a broad range of stakeholders. https://www.urc-international.com/
The topic of Seva's thesis is dedicated to the restoration of Ukraine, and he really wants to attend this conference, but he still can't find an organization that would send him to participate.
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If the Ukrainian government wants people to return to their homeland, they surely have a strange strategy for accomplishing it, given the brutish tactics of the mobilization.
Yet even in this, I blame the Soviets for instilling this tyrannical culture into Ukrainian society. The desperation of the military situation isn't helping, naturally.
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If the Ukrainian government wants people to return to their homeland, they surely have a strange strategy for accomplishing it, given the brutish tactics of the mobilization.
Yet even in this, I blame the Soviets for instilling this tyrannical culture into Ukrainian society. The desperation of the military situation isn't helping, naturally.
Also a legacy of Russian Empire rule prior to the Soviets, but made far worse by the Soviets. I believe that Ukraine wasn’t any worse in corruption and brutality than any other area in that part of Europe in the premodern days of kings and princes.
While we’re on the topic, I note that Wlad has been correct about virtually everything related to government dysfunction and corruption, and his predictions thereof.
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WASHINGTON, June 7 (Reuters) - The United States believes that russian President Vladimir putin's threatened retaliation against Ukraine over its drone attack last weekend has not happened yet in earnest and is likely to be a significant, multi-pronged strike, U.S. officials told Reuters. The timing of the full russian response was unclear, with one source saying it was expected within days. A second U.S. official said the retaliation was likely to include different kinds of air capabilities, including missiles and drones. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-believes-russia-response-ukraine-drone-attack-not-over-yet-expects-multi-2025-06-07/
Over the weekend I tried to rest as much as possible and slept a lot to recover. The weather changes from heat and sun to rain and cold the next day. Add magnetic storms and the situation in general. I'm still holding up well despite all this.
I also missed the Field Day competition again, which I last participated in in 2021, when I took second place among stations outside the UK. https://www.us7ign.com/?p=1821
It was really interesting to chat with Colin G3ZAF and Phil G8KBI on Zoom, as the radio is not working as well this year as it was last year. It's great to hear that the interest and support from our English friends is not weakening.
There was another large-scale air attack that night, I heard explosions in Kyiv, but it seems the main blow was delivered to the western region. The main targets of the russian attack that night were Dubno and Rivne. The places where I spent my childhood with my grandparents. https://rivnepost.rv.ua/news/vnochi-na-rivnenshchini-lunali-vibukhi-voroh-atakuvav-dronami-ta-raketami
Earlier russia has hit Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, with a massive drone and bomber attack, killing four people and injuring nearly 60, officials say. Two people were also killed in russian strikes on Kherson, in southern Ukraine, local authorities said.
Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov said 48 drones, two missiles and four glide bombs had been used against his city on Friday night, while more glide bombs were reportedly dropped on Saturday. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyjd1z8yg5o
Ukraine is also trying to attack with drones in response. russian public forums report a possible hit at one of the factories, which produces electrical equipment and mechanical engineering in Cheboksary, a city in western Russia on the Volga River. https://weukraine.tv/novyny/nevidomi-droni-atakuvali-zavod-u-cheboksarakh/
The United States believes that russian President Vladimir putin's threatened retaliation against Ukraine over its drone attack last weekend has not happened yet in earnest and is likely to be a significant, multi-pronged strike, U.S. officials told Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-believes-russia-response-ukraine-drone-attack-not-over-yet-expects-multi-2025-06-07/
Ukraine provoked russia into launching a massive strike on Ukrainian cities, US President Donald Trump said, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on June 6.
"They gave putin reason to go in and bomb the hell out of this last night. That's the thing I didn't like about it. When I saw it, I said, 'Here we go. Now it's going to be a strike.'"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRkGiKk3Wxs
But for some, there is clearly no war and they are looking for an opportunity to attract attention to themselves, which predictably ended in a fight. On Saturday, June 7, the KyivPride Park festival took place in the center of Kyiv — an educational and charity event in support of the LGBTIQ+ community.
The Kyiv Metropolis of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine sharply condemned the event. In an official statement, the church called "KyivPride" a "deliberate cynical anti-church provocation." The OCU emphasized that the event held under the walls of the St. Michael's Golden-Domed Monastery on the eve of the Holy Trinity Day "is not a coincidence, but indicates the organizers' deliberate provocative and anti-church intentions." https://kiev.tram.news/ukr/news/society/a1256215-kijivprajd-u-stolitsi-zavershivsja-zatrimannjami-protivnikiv-ta-osudzhennjam-tserkvi.html
The European Union's cancellation of autonomous trade measures for Ukraine from June 6, 2025 and the return to pre-war quotas will affect trade worth $3.5 billion and could reduce Ukrainian exporters' revenue by $800 million.
At the same time, the scenario that the European Commission had been laying out back in 2024 — the transition from autonomous trade measures to a renewed and liberalized free trade agreement — did not work. This was stated on Facebook by First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. https://biz.nv.ua/ukr/markets/torgivlya-z-yevrosoyuzom-problemi-dlya-ukrajinskih-kompaniy-pochnutsya-cherez-dva-misyaci-sviridenko-50520345.html
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Few people in Kyiv managed to sleep today. Drones were buzzing in the air all night, air defense firing. I want to say that when a ballistic missile is shot down nearby, it is a special feeling. The whole house trembles from the vibration. And the explosions from drone and missile hits are different from the explosions when they are shot down in the air. When you hear several drones at the same time and don't understand where they are flying, especially when they fly very close, the hair on your skin stands on end.
Surprisingly, I felt relatively well today, although some employees went home early to sleep.
In the morning, the city was covered in smoke, which indicated that there were quite a few hits.
There are dead and injured, several residential high-rises are burning in Kyiv, and a maternity hospital and an ambulance station have been destroyed in Odessa.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ceqg8jrwwrzo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8ody2vEoOY
The General Staff reports that over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian armed forces have eliminated another 960 occupiers. Our soldiers also destroyed 426 units of enemy equipment and weapons, including 2 aircraft. As of the morning of June 10, russia's losses in a full-scale war against Ukraine have already exceeded 998 thousand.
https://24tv.ua/vtrati-voroga-10-chervnya-2025-roku-skilki-okupantiv-znishheno_n2842790
This is pleasing, but it is better not to look at the map that depicts the front line, which shows the gradual and relentless advance of the russians. https://deepstatemap.live/#8/48.2590000/36.0350000
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte believes that a long-term ceasefire in Ukraine will allow russia to increase its weapons stockpiles, increasing the risks for the bloc’s member states. He expressed this opinion during a speech at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London (Chatham House) on June 9.
Among other things, Rutte agreed that the fact that russia, after a possible ceasefire in the war against Ukraine, will start accumulating weapons, increasing the risks for NATO. https://www.youtube.com/live/Gtq_OeASgfE
So this is effectively an admission that prolonging the war is in NATO’s interests.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Western partners are delaying tougher sanctions against russia, including because Ukraine does not mobilize people from the age of 18 into the army. He said this in an interview with the Hungarian publication Válasz Online, published on June 10.
"I have never said this before, but since you asked, I will tell you what I think, because this is a delicate issue: I do not believe that we should mobilize people from the age of 18, as leaders of other countries believe," Zelensky said when asked about the problems with mobilization in Ukraine.
According to him, Operation Spiderweb, during which Ukrainian drones hit many military aircraft at russian airfields, showed that "it is not the number of people that is important, but weapons and technology."
"And money and pressure. Sanctions could deprive the russians of money to finance the war. But when it comes to sanctions, Western partners, among the reasons why they do not impose them, say, in particular, that Ukraine has not mobilized since the age of 18," Zelensky noted.
In the same interview with Válasz Online, Zelensky said that Ukraine can mobilize 27 thousand people per month, while "the russians can mobilize from 40 to 50 thousand, because their losses are greater." https://www.valaszonline.hu/2025/06/10/volodimir-zelenszkij-ukrajna-haboru-kijev-oroszorszag-orban-viktor-vlagyimir-putyin-interju/
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All very interesting reporting, my friend. I happened to hear (while watching Deutsche Welle) Rutte say his remarks about Russia arming up to take on NATO, after the war. Whether he's right or not I do not know, but I do hope his EU allies believe him, and start to divert more of their budgets to armaments.
I think Putin is probably too old to actually see such an offensive through. But his successor may be as murderous and crazy as Putin.
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I’m relieved that you were not harmed in the attacks, Wlad, and pray for your continued safety.
I’m sorry to hear that Seva may not be able to attend the conference, but it sounds like he doing very well in his studies.
Did Rutte actually state or imply that NATO should act to prolong the war? Or was he only stating the obvious, that this time is an opportunity to rearm in Europe? Regardless of a long term cease fire, or peace, or even military defeat, Russia will still rearm, and sooner than many would like to think.
The one person, President of the United States, who could actually make a difference in stopping this war has decided to let the “children” fight it out for a while. Perhaps he will take up the fiddle, and play it while his buddy bombards Ukrainian civilians for the temerity of destroying aircraft he used to launch missiles against them.
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Hello friends! Fortunately, there was no damage in my area this time, and last night was generally calm.
Rutte stated the fact that while the war is going on in Ukraine, it is not going on in NATO countries. This may indeed suit NATO, but there is one caveat - Ukrainians are not endless.
On the morning of June 12, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine published daily statistics, which it has been keeping since the beginning of the full-scale war. It indicates the estimated losses of the russian army. For the first time, according to the Ukrainian military, they exceeded 1 million people. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c2d56xej0d7o
The reliability of this figure is questionable, but it is obvious that it is timed to coincide with russia National Day.
But the real surprise and disgust was caused by the press statement of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who congratulated the russians on the holiday. "On behalf of the American people, I want to congratulate the russian people on russia Day. The United States remains committed to supporting the russian people as they continue to build on their aspirations for a brighter future." https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/06/russia-national-day/
Meanwhile, on June 12, 2025, two special investment agreements were signed in Lviv between the Cabinet of Ministers, the Slavsky Village Council and investors - LLC "SLAVSKY" and LLC "ROZHANKA PARK". These companies have been implementing an investment project in cooperation with the Slavsky Village Council since the fall of 2024 with a total volume of 140 million euros. This involves the construction of an all-season mountain resort GORO Mountain Resort. On behalf of the Government, the agreement was signed by the First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine - Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko.
The essence of the program is the possibility of compensation of up to 30% of capital investments for projects worth 12 million euros or more through a number of forms of state support.
In particular, it provides for:
exemption from profit tax (up to 5 years);
exemption from import duty and import VAT on new equipment;
compensation for costs of engineering infrastructure (electricity networks, substations, gas pipelines, etc.);
preferential right to use the land plot.
https://me.gov.ua/News/Detail/9c6eb48d-5bae-4aeb-8017-aa104223c7db?lang=uk-UA&title=UriadPidpisavInvestitsiiniDogovoriDliaRealizatsiiProktuZiZnachnimiInvestitsiiamiNaLvivschini-YuliiaSviridenko
Great news, although it seems surreal in a country where people are busy raising money for drones and other assistance to the army. I wonder if government funds were raised by, for example, Churchill during the war to build resorts?
Given the above, it is not surprising that fewer and fewer Ukrainians want to participate in the defense of this whole fucking circus.
War changes the lexicon and new expressions appear in the language, which in turn are sometimes used with great sarcasm.
For example, at the beginning of the war, the authorities provided statistics in the form of the total number of missiles and drones launched by russia and the number of them shot down. Then, for drones that were not shot down, a special term "lost in location" began to be used. People now use this term to refer to deserters. For example, "out of 26 thousand mobilized, 20 thousand were lost in location."
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Yes Rubio’s statement is disgusting given the circumstances. Normally statements to note some country’s national holiday are issued routinely by the US State Department, but the situation with Russia is not routine. Furthermore the Russians will seize on this as further evidence that the US is on their side, and the Ukrainians will naturally dispair.
Well, Rubio is “learning on the job” about foreign relations, and is probably only dimly aware of how such words are received and the impact they have. But in fairness he is handicapped by his Dunning-Kruger eagerness to rush in where he has no experience and where wise men fear to tread, mostly by accepting the job in the first place.
Anyway, he can’t seem to help blurting out stupid and condescending comments, such as this sterling example in early March when he was quoted by Polico, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/10/marco-rubio-ukraine-concessions-end-russia-war-00223082
“They’ve [Ukrainians] suffered greatly and their people have suffered greatly, and it’s hard in the aftermath of something like that to even talk about concessions,” he told reporters. “But that’s the only way this is going to end to prevent more suffering.”
Then this in nearly the same breath,
Adding that he was “not going to pre-negotiate anything,” Rubio said the U.S. side would seek to understand what Kyiv is “willing to do in order to achieve peace” and bring an end to the war.
In fact he just did pre-negotiate giving up Ukrainian territory and gave Russia a pass but didn't realize it.
Sadly, Rubio is not the only “babe in the woods” involved. Similar statements can be found from Trump’s Special Envoys and from the President himself going back to before he was sworn in.
Is it any wonder that Putin is in no hurry to negotiate anything when the US administration is virtually doing it for him?
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The old world order is becoming history, and looking at what is happening in the Middle East, it seems to me that we will see certain geographical changes not only in Eastern Europe.
So no matter what one hopes for, reality is often not what one imagines it to be.
During another evening chat in our UK-Ukraine group on Zoom, Roger MI0WBB shared a link to a podcast that simulates a possible armed attack by russia on the UK. https://news.sky.com/story/the-wargame-podcast-what-if-russia-attacked-the-uk-13381047
Interestingly, this game involves Ben Wallace, the former UK Secretary of State for Defence, who did the same thing when he was in office. Despite all the conventionality of the simulation of the situation, I immediately drew attention to the constant fear of doing something that would provoke russia. This is about the interests of the UK and actions at its own borders! This gives answers to why and how Europe has acted since 2022.
I came across an interesting interview with Viktoria Kovach, the head of the medical service of the Third Army Corps. Speaking about the problems in organizing the medical service in the army and the fact that many sick people are being called up, she also points out the problems with the shortage of doctors at the front, suggesting mobilizing more civilian doctors. https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2025/06/14/7517062/
While transporting mobilized citizens to the assembly point of the Kyiv City Mobilization Center, two of them attempted to escape. They broke the car window and tried to escape.
“During this attempt, one of the mobilized fell onto the road, receiving life-threatening injuries, which led to his death at the scene,” the Kyiv Mobilization Center said in a statement. https://kyiv.tsn.ua/kyiv/u-kyyevi-mobilizovanyy-na-khodu-vystrybnuv-z-avto-ttsk-i-zahynuv-detali-trahediyi-2849183.html
Maryna and Kate arrived yesterday for a week to sort out paperwork and visit doctors. In addition to new glasses, Kate needs to undergo tests and determine the cause of her loss of consciousness, which has happened three times this year. We hope this is solely due to stress and strain, and not due to any serious illness. Successful study at an elite lyceum and also in Polish requires extraordinary efforts. I would like her to recover over the summer. Unfortunately, I have a lot of work even on weekends and I don't manage to devote much time to them.
Thank God, the last three days have been quiet in Kyiv and it would be good if there were no attacks with missiles and drones while they are here.
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Prayers for Kate, and for a peaceful visit. It is quite difficult to get news on Ukraine over here, as the focus is of course now on Iran and Israel. So I value these updates.
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Best wishes to Kate, and for a quick and accurate diagnosis and treatment of her condition.
Somewhat similarly our younger son is prone to seizures as a result of cerebral palsy. Any situation such as being on a ladder where loss of or diminished consciousness and muscle control would be dangerous must be avoided or managed tightly. Fortunately medication keeps his seizures under control and infrequent.
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“I immediately drew attention to the constant fear of doing something that would provoke russia. This is about the interests of the UK and actions at its own borders! This gives answers to why and how Europe has acted since 2022.”
Has there ever been a time when Russia or the Soviet Union did not present itself as an ill-tempered bear that might suddenly strike anyone around it? I don’t think so. It’s a reflection of weakness and insecurity not strength, like any common bully. A pity that even well armed nuclear powers such as the UK still think as though it’s the 19th century and masses of foot soldiers are decisive to them.
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Prayers for Kate, and for a peaceful visit. It is quite difficult to get news on Ukraine over here, as the focus is of course now on Iran and Israel. So I value these updates.
Last night may bring back attention and be worthy competition to news from the Middle East. But for now, you can only see information about the latest airstrike on Ukraine on local websites.
On the night of June 17, russia massively attacked Kyiv with all types of weapons - a raid by shaheds began from the north on the city, then aeroballistic "Daggers" struck, and then cruise missiles from Tu-95MS strategic bombers were added. In the second half of the night, russia launched a massive strike on the center of Odesa and Zaporizhia.
At least 14 people have already died in Kyiv and 55 have been injured. However, the number of victims and injured could be much higher, said the mayor of the capital, Vitaliy Klitschko, because many people could be under the rubble. The Ministry of Internal Affairs says that 5 people were under the rubble.
The attack on Kyiv ended only at 6 am, the alarm in the capital lasted 9 hours.
There were numerous fires in apartment buildings in different areas of the capital, there are photos of very damaged high-rise buildings, under the rubble of which there may be people. In one high-rise building, an entire entrance collapsed from a ballistic missile strike.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c0j4pz06g3eo
The day before yesterday there was a major attack on the Poltava region. https://rubryka.com/2025/06/15/ryatuvalnyky-pokazaly-naslidky-odniyeyi-z-najbilshyh-atak-rf-po-kremenchuku/
For better or worse, I have so much work that I had to work on weekends, and yesterday I had to stay at work extra late. So I talked to my wife and daughter at night, when we watched the attack from the balcony. It is ridiculous and dangerous, but the chances of survival are still minimal if the hit is direct. At least Kate was able to see with her own eyes what the drone looks like.
Given the height of observation, we were able to see how the drones, despite attempts to shoot them down, slowly, and sometimes even making a circle before approaching the target, hit the same place nearby. I don’t know what exactly is there, but the fire is still going on during the day.
There is a lot of smoke everywhere, but there is no wind and I closed the windows. Many roads will be closed today and I decided to stay and work from home. So far I have both electricity and water.
Last night during Zoom I again heard from English and American friends the opinion that the russian economy will soon collapse, and the destruction of the Shaheed factory in Iran will reduce their number in Ukraine. Well, I'm surprised again how distorted their perception of reality is. russia is already doing quite well, and with rising oil prices due to the situation in the Middle East, and Europe's increased consumption of its gas, its affairs will only improve.
As for drones, russia has long been producing them independently in quantities that Iran can only dream of. In addition, they are significantly improved - the electronics are more advanced, the amount of explosives is twice as much, and the Chinese "disposable" engines, whether from lawnmowers or chainsaws, make them very cheap.
Europe's frontier countries ready their hospitals for war. From stockpiling trauma kits for mass casualties to kitting out medics with body armor, wartime health planning is no longer hypothetical on NATO’s eastern flank.
The goal was to steel the military, police, firefighters, hospitals and paramedics to operate under exceptional circumstances — as Lithuania braces for the worst-case scenario: an attack on NATO’s eastern flank. Since russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the threat of military conflict has loomed large.
“It’s not a question of if [russia] will attack,” said Ragnar Vaiknemets, deputy director general of the Estonian Health Board, which oversees preparedness for crises from pandemics to war. “It’s a question about when.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/eastern-europe-baltics-hospitals-wartime-preparation-health-care-russia-ukraine/
A huge difference in the attitude to the threat from an adequate leader of his country. Compare with Zelensky's calls in 2022 not to panic and to prepare for a barbecue, instead of preparing for war, which led to the rapid seizure of large territory by russia and large civilian casualties.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that russia had proposed exchanging its prisoners of war for kidnapped Ukrainian children. He said this at a press conference with Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n67co9NhLxU
"You talked about exchanges. We cannot exchange children. These are not prisoners of war. And therefore it is impossible, we do not exchange them for anything. This is absolutely unfair. And to be honest, sorry, this is madness, which, by the way, the russians proposed: we give them military personnel, and they give us children. It is simply beyond understanding and international law. Well, in principle, it is in their spirit of life," Zelensky said.
Well, that also explains why these "kidnapped" children, and we are talking about orphans, were simply abandoned by Ukraine in the occupied territories. A couple more years and they will grow up "russian" - this happened to most children in the territories occupied since 2014...
I don't know if this person is real or how much you can trust his words, but if it's true, it's very bad. https://censor.net/en/news/3558282/chosen-company-commander-o-leary-on-problems-with-quality-of-ukrainian-armed-forces-officer-corps
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I hope that you, Maryna and Kate remain safe, and that she is receiving the medical care she needs.
I don’t know how Zelensky can live with himself without doing everything possible to bring the children home. Isn’t this causing a great uproar among citizens to demand that he reverse himself?
Ryan O’Leary’s comments (and disbanding of his unit) are indeed disturbing. They have the ring of truth, given everything else you’ve described over the years.
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The week flew by in the blink of an eye. The workload at work is such that yesterday I came home, ate and immediately fell asleep. Today I woke up with a headache from another call from work. Tomorrow I will also have to work almost the whole day.
I have only learned about air raids in recent nights from the messages that I see on my phone in the morning. I don’t hear anything at night, perhaps because there were no explosions in Kyiv itself. The new russian tactic of massively attacking individual cities with a large number of drones and missiles is paying off. Each attack causes great damage.
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I hope that you, Maryna and Kate remain safe, and that she is receiving the medical care she needs.
They are already on the train and I hope they will reach Poland safely. For me, it is always a mixed feeling when they are here. On the one hand, I am glad to see them, but on the other hand, I stop worrying only when they cross the border from Ukraine. This time they found one of the biggest attacks on Kyiv. The death toll was more than 20 people. https://gordonua.com/ukr/news/war/kilkist-zahiblikh-vnaslidok-rosijskoho-udaru-po-kijevu-zbilshilasja-do-28-1746181.html
That same morning, we watched as drones hit the same place several times nearby. It turned out to be a freeze-dried food factory, which probably supplied its products to the army, among other things. https://www.komersant.info/zbytky-ponad-milyon-dolariv-rosiia-znyshchyla-vyrobnytstvo-sublimovanykh-kharchiv-dlia-viyskovykh/
It burned for a long time, black smoke was half way up in the sky, and there must have been large supplies in the warehouses. If the russians don’t mind a few drones even on such a relatively small target, and it was successfully hit, then this indicates that in the event of an attempt to launch a more or less important production in Ukraine, it will be quickly destroyed.
The Zaporizhzhia Non-Ferrous Metals Plant of Electro Cable Group was also damaged in the missile strike on Zaporizhzhia. This plant is one of the largest manufacturers of cable and wire products in Ukraine and the leader in Ukraine in the production of copper and power flexible cable up to 1 kV, as well as the largest exporter of cable to EU countries. https://biz.liga.net/ua/all/all/novosti/rosiia-vdaryla-kalibramy-po-naybilshomu-v-ukraini-zavodu-z-vyrobnytstva-kabeliu-foto
On the night of June 21, Kremenchuk and the region were attacked by suicide bombers and rockets. The energy infrastructure was under attack. According to local channels, a lot of explosions were heard in Kremenchuk, there were many fires in the city. For several hours, the city was hit from the air, first by suicide bombers, and then by rockets. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/334168-rf-nanesla-massirovannyy-udar-po-kremenchugu-est-popadaniya-po-energetike
Undoubtedly, the situation will only get worse.
NHK has learned that North Korea is considering sending workers to a drone manufacturer in russia to boost production in exchange for training in how to operate the unmanned aircraft. The factory in question is said to be in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in the central russian republic of Tatarstan. A total of 25,000 workers from North Korea are to be dispatched there. https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20250619_05/
Open-source intelligence suggests that russia is increasing its T-90M tank production capabilities. Georgia-based open-source intelligence organization Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) reported on June 20 that an unnamed "reliable analytical source" stated that russia's annual production rate of T-90M tanks was roughly 280 T-90M tanks as of 2024. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-20-2025
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Greetings Wlad et al,
I'm happy to hear of your visit with Maryna & Kate. I hope you all learn what has happened with Kate!
The cats & myself are doing okay. Yesterday was summer solstice and it's hard to fathom that half of 2025 is now in the past!
My friend has had many troubles. The largest problem is rapid onset of dementia. In something like 6 weeks she went for a normal mental state to being unable to figure out what day it is. She can't figure out a TV remote, and has difficulty trying to use a land line telephone.
I am now taking over her finances and making sure bills/rent are paid.
There are three of us sharing her care duties, the other two, a married couple both work full time, so it has been difficult for all of us.
There's an organization called "Visiting Angels" who provide people to care for elderly/disabled. It is expensive, but has been a huge help to her, and to us. They now show up three times per week for several hours and do basic house chores, help her bath, shopping etc.
Next week, I will take her to her primary doctor for a cognitive test. I hope this well lead to a referral to a medical psychiatrist. From what I can find (and almost understand) this is very abnormal and it could be treatable. I am keeping my fingers crossed we find the correct path to help for her.
There is very little to read about Ukraine here. You're reports, though sad, are very informative.
My country is in deep trouble. I hope history won't be repeated.
Stay strong om, 73
Jaye
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Greetings Wlad et al,
I'm happy to hear of your visit with Maryna & Kate. I hope you all learn what has happened with Kate!
Jaye
Hi Jaye!
It`s always very nice to hear from you too!
They are already in Krakow. This time Kate got new glasses and decided to try lenses, because it is not comfortable to wear glasses while doing sports. She also visited several doctors and passed tests. Fortunately, the doctors did not find anything serious, but considering heredity, a cardiologist's consultation was not superfluous. At the same time, we found out that Maryna had similar problems in childhood, but then they passed. Perhaps the real reason for her poor condition was the extraordinary workload in studies and we hope that Kate will rest and recover over the summer. If at the beginning of the school year she was not sure that she would be able to stay at the lyceum even for six months, now her grades are no worse than others and she is not going to stop. One of the main topics of our conversations was what they would do if something happened to me. No one has a clear answer to this, but Kate has a clear understanding that the more she manages now, the easier it will be for her later.
The cats & myself are doing okay. Yesterday was summer solstice and it's hard to fathom that half of 2025 is now in the past!
My friend has had many troubles. The largest problem is rapid onset of dementia. In something like 6 weeks she went for a normal mental state to being unable to figure out what day it is. She can't figure out a TV remote, and has difficulty trying to use a land line telephone.
It's good that you and the cats are doing well! Kate wondered if I should get another pet, but I don't want to. I have enough worries and uncertainty as it is.
You reminded me of how many lonely people with illnesses and other problems live in Ukraine, relying only on themselves...
My country is in deep trouble. I hope history won't be repeated.
I may sound cynical, but after the IAEA reports that no traces of nuclear contamination were observed at the sites of strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-on-developments-in-iran-3 , it all seems to me to be another deception and a fabricated pretext for an attack to change the regime, as was the case with "chemical weapons" in Iraq or "Nazis" in Ukraine. But as in previous cases, this only led to even worse consequences and simply the destruction of another country and millions of deaths.
One can only think about who benefited from disrupting the negotiations and the possible conclusion of a nuclear agreement between the US and Iran. However, on a large chessboard you can't see people and their lives, even countries look like symbols. I once heard about an interesting practice of re-educating drunk drivers, who were punished by helping the police remove corpses from mangled cars or collecting their parts from the road. It would be interesting to see the US presidential administration or the Israeli Cabinet in full force, which would dismantle the rubble in Gaza, removing dead children from them.
The main danger for the United States now is that the war does not spread to its territory. As practice and the recent attack by Ukrainian drones on strategic bombers in russia at its remote bases show, to destroy them, the drones were assembled and launched directly on russian territory.
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Good to hear that nothing serious was indicated for Kate’s condition and that she and Maryna are safe back in Poland. Hopefully less stress or perhaps relaxation techniques will help. Medical diagnoses and treatments that must rely on a process of elimination are very frustrating. It’s interesting that her mother had a similar condition that resolved spontaneously. There’s so much more for medical science to understand.
I don’t (yet) share your cynicism about the lack of radiation at the bombed Iranian nuclear sites. There are a number of other possibilities such as that the sites are for processing, not storage of fissile material, and uranium hexafloride processed in centrifuges is not very radioactive. Any enriched uranium was likely moved to other locations for storage, especially after Trump made public threats, or even earlier after Israeli attacks began. We don’t know much because in 2018 IAEA access was restricted by Iran as a result of the US unilaterally withdrawing from the JCPOA and reimposing sanctions.
I entirely share your concern about attacks on the US by Iran or proxies. Probably this will begin at US manned locations around the world but soon within our borders. Or perhaps sleeper agents already here will strike as soon as possible.
All of which will reduce attention on the war in Ukraine, making it even easier for the US administration to ignore it and emboldening Putin further in Ukraine and elsewhere. As usual, his propaganda machinery will add to the chaos and uncertainty in order to make the world more pliable for long term Russian objectives.
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This night was again very noisy and fortunately there were no hits in my area. But at least nine people have been killed and several injured in an overnight russian missile and drone attack in the Kyiv region, the interior minister has said. At least six of those killed were in a high-rise building in the capital, Kyiv's mayor Vitali Klitschko said. The city's military administration said a further 33 people had been injured. In the latest barrage, 352 russian drones and 16 missiles targeted Ukrainian territory, mostly in the Kyiv area, the Ukrainian air force said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0k7vll16l3o
I worked almost all Sunday, slept very little at night, and barely understood what was being discussed at the morning online meeting at 8 a.m. But I still turned out to be one of the most active participants, considering that almost half of the invitees didn't connect at all.
Although most Ukrainians also follow what is happening in Iran, only a small part of them paid attention to the fact that in addition to enemy attacks, several interesting things happened in Ukraine last week.
On June 18, the Parliament adopted a bill on multiple citizenship. The issue of recognizing multiple citizenships will depend on whether it is the citizenship of a country included in the list of the Cabinet of Ministers - and it will form the list at its own discretion. At the same time, the bill does not specify how often the Cabinet of Ministers can change the list of such countries.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/333902-verkhovnaya-rada-prinyala-zakon-o-mnozhestvennom-grazhdanstve
The purpose and consequences of the adoption of this law are not entirely clear, and for those Ukrainians for whom citizenship automatically became slavery, nothing has changed - the termination of Ukrainian citizenship is possible only after the issuance of a corresponding presidential decree, which has not been done for many years.
On June 19, the Parliament adopted a resolution on the All-Ukrainian Children's and Youth Military-Patriotic Game "Jura". The game "Jura" is held with the aim of forming patriotic and defense consciousness in children and youth.
The game is aimed, in particular, at acquiring primary general military and special competencies by young people, including additional specializations, in particular "Jura-Defender", "Jura-Paratrooper", "Jura-Border Guard", "Jura-Guard", "Jura-Policeman", necessary for upholding the state independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine, protecting the state border, ensuring security and law and order in the country. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/334050-dzhura-pogranichnik-i-dzhura-politseyskiy-verkhovnaya-rada-prinyala-postanovlenie-o-vseukrainskoy-detsko-yunosheskoy-voenno-patrioticheskoy-igre-dzhura
What a beautiful demonstration of double standards! Not so long ago, our propagandists were condemning russia for doing the same thing.
Zelensky finally banned the appointment of military personnel with higher education in psychology, medicine, pharmacy, and rehabilitation to military positions not related to the medical service. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/333546-voennosluzhaschikh-s-vysshim-psikhologicheskim-ili-meditsinskim-obrazovaniem-zapretyat-naznachat-na-dolzhnosti-ne-svyazannye-s-medsluzhboy-zelenskiy-podpisal-ukaz
Perhaps one day the turn will come for engineers and other highly qualified specialists who choose to flee Ukraine, not wanting to die as privates storming another landing?
But this problem is not new. Walter Schellenberg wrote in his memoirs that the front was making ever greater demands, and too often the people it needed were doing the wrong work. He gave several examples: an economics specialist who had worked for a long time in Argentina served as a clerk at the headquarters of one of the divisions on the Eastern Front; a great expert on Portugal was a gunner in an anti-aircraft battery; an excellent photochemist, who was absolutely necessary for work in the technical department, was an assistant cook in a front-line hospital. (Only in 1943, with the help of Himmler, was it possible to obtain such personnel through exchange).
According to the Kharkiv Oblast Bar Council, one of the men who was excluded from military registration was forcibly mobilized in violation of current legislation. A lawyer arrived at the premises to protect the rights of this citizen.
However, while performing his professional duties, the lawyer was physically attacked by the mobilization center employees, as a result of which he suffered a broken leg, numerous bruises, and was hospitalized. After that, the mobilization center employees continued to detain the man, applying physical and psychological pressure to him for over 16 hours. As a result of these actions, the man jumped out of the building window.
“This is not an isolated case. Impunity and arbitrariness in the system lead to tragedies. Suicide attempts within the walls of the mobilization center are becoming the new norm. This is not just a violation, it is a system of torture and humiliation that destroys people and trust in the Law,” the Kharkiv Oblast Bar Council commented on the event. https://unba.org.ua/news/10452-chergovij-konflikt-z-tck-advokatu-zlamali-nogu-a-jogo-klient-vikinuvsya-z-vikna.html
In Ukraine, more than 900 criminal proceedings have been opened against employees of mobilization centers for abuse, excess of authority and violence. Dozens of cases have been filed with the courts, but there have been no verdicts yet. This was stated by Andriy Zhohan, Deputy Director of the Special Prosecutor's Office of the Prosecutor General's Office, during a meeting of the temporary investigative commission on violations of the law during mobilization. https://unn.ua/news/maizhe-1000-sprav-vidkryto-stosovno-viiskovosluzhbovtsiv-ttsk
It must be remembered that not all cases of violations of the law reach an investigation.
I caught myself thinking that lately you've been paying even less attention to corruption scandals than to yet another drone flying overhead. But one of the latter demonstrated that Zelensky has begun to lose control of his surroundings.
Detectives of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine reported suspicions of Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of National Unity Oleksiy Chernyshov in abusing his official position and receiving illegal benefits on a particularly large scale. The day before, he returned to Ukraine amid rumors that he was hiding from the investigation.
In recent days, a scandal has shaken Ukrainian politics and social networks about him. A number of people's deputies and the media drew attention to the fact that the minister did not return from a business trip to Ukraine even to participate in a forum organized by his ministry.
It got to the point that the head of government Denys Shmyhal, as well as President Volodymyr Zelensky in parliament, had to comment on the minister's European tour.
But those few days abroad were enough for the Internet to be filled with jokes about the fact that even the minister responsible for the return of Ukrainians from abroad had fled Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c2le9k1gvq8o
Also very interesting is the Politico article about Andriy Yermak. Amid the pitched political battles that have engulfed Washington over Ukraine, there is one rare point of bipartisan consensus: Everyone has had it with Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The second most powerful man in Ukraine, Yermak has been a particularly frustrating interlocutor for the Trump administration, according to 10 people familiar with his interactions.
People familiar with the U.S.-Ukraine relationship and Kyiv’s backers in Washington fear that the friction wrought by Yermak could quickly spread to undermine his country’s standing with its most vital partner. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/ukraine-andriy-yermak-frustrates-trump-administration-00414197
And finally, it turned out that the popular Ukrainian investigative journalist Denys Bigus is a freelance employee of the Military Counterintelligence Department of the Security Service of Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/ua/n3558906
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I don’t (yet) share your cynicism about the lack of radiation at the bombed Iranian nuclear sites. There are a number of other possibilities such as that the sites are for processing, not storage of fissile material, and uranium hexafloride processed in centrifuges is not very radioactive. Any enriched uranium was likely moved to other locations for storage, especially after Trump made public threats, or even earlier after Israeli attacks began. We don’t know much because in 2018 IAEA access was restricted by Iran as a result of the US unilaterally withdrawing from the JCPOA and reimposing sanctions.
I entirely share your concern about attacks on the US by Iran or proxies. Probably this will begin at US manned locations around the world but soon within our borders. Or perhaps sleeper agents already here will strike as soon as possible.
It seems that there is an agreement between Trump and putin on the division of spheres of influence. And this gives hope that russia will refuse to support Iran and will not provide it with its nuclear weapons. Also, this war is beneficial for both the USA and russia due to the increase in oil prices, which weakens their common enemies - Europe and China. The only risk is that refugees from Iran can go to russia through Armenia, but perhaps for russia this will be another source of people due to the demographic crisis.
Against the background of Iran's attack on Qatar, it also seems that the USA has finally successfully used the fact that their Arab allies in the region do not feel anything in common with the Persians, and the fact that both are Muslims is offset by the differences between Shiites and Sunnis.
And all this undoubtedly worsens the situation in Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Brigadier General Gennady Shapovalov as Commander of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. https://mind.ua/news/20290824-novim-komanduvachem-suhoputnih-vijsk-stav-gennadij-shapovalov
I don't know if these rotations will help change anything in the army if there is not enough money and weapons to equip it.
Next year, Ukrainians will face an austerity budget. The Ministry of Finance did not have time (but should have) to approve the Budget Declaration by June 1. In the Verkhovna Rada, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko explained: it is necessary to reduce the deficit to 9.5% of GDP (currently 19.4% of GDP). That is, it is necessary to somehow cut hundreds of billions of hryvnias in expenditures. The IMF demands such a reduction, in particular, guided by its forecast for the end of the war in 2025.
If security risks disappear next year (i.e., the full-scale war will end in 2025), this will allow reducing military spending and also accelerate the process of economic recovery. But for now, it is difficult to claim that the end of the war will take place this year. The Ministry of Finance cannot hope for this option and count on it as the only possible one. https://yvu.com.ua/nastupnogo-roku-ukrayintsiv-chekaye-byudzhet-zhorstkoyi-ekonomiyi/
Also, things are happening that were impossible a year ago. US special envoy Keith Kellogg visited Minsk, Belarus' capital, on Saturday and held a meeting with the country's authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko. The Belarusian leader has been isolated by Western politicians for many years.
The purpose of the visit and its consequences are unclear, but it resulted in the release of several political prisoners, including an opposition activist Sergey Tikhanovsky. In the case of Tikhanovsky, it appears Lukashenko calculated that he had more to gain geopolitically by releasing a prominent prisoner than he would risk by letting him go.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9397rrkwedo
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Wlad, it’s truly remarkable that you stay so informed in detail about a multitude of things in Ukraine and around the world despite your heavy workload, daily difficulties from the war, and staying connected to family and friends.
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Wlad, it’s truly remarkable that you stay so informed in detail about a multitude of things in Ukraine and around the world despite your heavy workload, daily difficulties from the war, and staying connected to family and friends.
Despite the fact that every day is planned almost to the minute, I don’t have time to do much of what I would like. Lately I have been forced to work late at night and on weekends. I am not the only one like that in the company, although this does not make it easier for us. In order not to undermine my health, I try to sleep at least 7 hours a day under any circumstances.
Now I have less time to read the news, but I have found a way to practice English and learn the latest news at the same time. During my commute to work, I listen to the news on the BBC podcast. In addition to the news itself, you learn a lot of interesting things from the comments of the presenters. This allows you to better understand how people live in England and what to expect in Ukraine.
On June 25, Ukraine signed an agreement with the Council of Europe to establish a Special Tribunal for the crime of russian aggression against Ukraine. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/4008380-zelenskij-pidpisav-ugodu-z-radou-evropi-pro-stvorenna-spectribunalu.html
The russian Foreign Ministry stated that it will not recognize the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression of the russian Federation against Ukraine, and warned third countries against joining it. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4008681-u-rf-zaavili-so-ne-viznavatimut-spectribunal-sodo-zlocinu-agresii-proti-ukraini.html
The White House on Wednesday recommended terminating U.S. funding for nearly two dozen programs that conduct war crimes and accountability work globally, including in Myanmar, Syria and on alleged russian atrocities in Ukraine, according to two U.S. sources familiar with the matter and internal government documents reviewed by Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/white-house-wants-major-cut-us-war-crimes-accountability-funding-sources-say-2025-06-26/
On Thursday, June 26, the European Council failed to unanimously adopt a statement in support of Ukraine. 26 out of 27 EU member states voted in favor of the document, with only Hungary opposing it. This was stated in a communiqué published on the European Council website. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/06/26/european-council-26-june-2025-ukraine/
The European Union must increase spending on security and defense to implement a plan to become more defensive within five years, the European Council said in its conclusions after the NATO summit. But in addition to allocating money, it must also create the necessary capacity to produce weapons or buy them, for example, from the United States.
By playing to the Trump’s ego, the alliance has strengthened its bonds with its biggest financial backer. When the president spoke of Iran and Israel as if they were squabbling children who had to be separated, the head of Nato Mark Rutte helpfully interjected: “Daddy has to sometimes use strong language.” He was rewarded with a self-satisfied smile from the target of the adulation. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/25/how-nato-conquered-trump/
A wonderful lesson in diplomacy!
President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared at the NATO summit in a black outfit that resembles a classic suit. The media noted that the President wore a suit for the first time, instead of the usual military style. https://sud.ua/uk/news/video/334450-vladimir-zelenskiy-smenil-obraz-dlya-sammita-nato-video
For some reason, I remembered the brilliant Orwell and his Animal Farm.
It was just after the sheep had returned, on a pleasant evening when the animals had finished work and were making their way back to the farm buildings, that the terrified neighing of a horse sounded from the yard. Startled, the animals stopped in their tracks. It was Clover's voice. She neighed again, and all the animals broke into a gallop and rushed into the yard. Then they saw what Clover had seen.
It was a pig walking on his hind legs.
Yes, it was Squealer. A little awkwardly, as though not quite used to supporting his considerable bulk in that position, but with perfect balance, he was strolling across the yard. And a moment later, out from the door of the farmhouse came a long file of pigs, all walking on their hind legs. Some did it better than others, one or two were even a trifle unsteady and looked as though they would have liked the support of a stick, but every one of them made his way right round the yard successfully. And finally there was a tremendous baying of dogs and a shrill crowing from the black cockerel, and out came Napoleon himself, majestically upright, casting haughty glances from side to side, and with his dogs gambolling round him.
He carried a whip in his trotter.
After that it did not seem strange when next day the pigs who were supervising the work of the farm all carried whips in their trotters. It did not seem strange to learn that the pigs had bought themselves a wireless set, were arranging to install a telephone, and had taken out subscriptions to 'John Bull', 'Tit-Bits', and the 'Daily Mirror'. It did not seem strange when Napoleon was seen strolling in the farmhouse garden with a pipe in his mouth—no, not even when the pigs took Mr. Jones's clothes out of the wardrobes and put them on, Napoleon himself appearing in a black coat, ratcatcher breeches, and leather leggings, while his favourite sow appeared in the watered silk dress which Mrs. Jones had been used to wearing on Sundays.
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Despite international sanctions, russia's strategic missile plant was able to import complex machinery to dramatically increase missile production. The Kyiv Independent has identified the equipment supplied to the plant, as well as the supply chains, mostly from China. https://kyivindependent.com/investigation-russia-expands-strategic-plant-producing-icbms-with-chinas-help/
russia and Ukraine have conducted another prisoner exchange. Neither side has specified how many people were exchanged.
https://www.bbc.com/russian/live/c3081p27qept?post=asset%3A6cb00755-1a43-4368-aaec-c3bf35e8d8a6#asset:6cb00755-1a43-4368-aaec-c3bf35e8d8a6
During May 2025, the amount of Ukraine's state and state-guaranteed debt increased in hryvnia equivalent by UAH 34.88 billion, and in dollar equivalent by almost $1 billion, the Ministry of Finance reports. As of May 31, Ukraine's state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 7.51 trillion ($180.97 billion). https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/06/26/novyna/ekonomika/derzhborh-ukrayiny-zris-milyard-dolariv-minfin
June 24, 2025 On Tuesday morning, the russian army launched a ballistic missile strike on the Dnipro and its surroundings. At least 17 people were killed, 15 in the Dnipro and two more in the city of Samar. 279 people were injured to varying degrees of severity, including 27 children. 46 high-rise buildings, 41 private houses, several dormitories, more than a hundred cars, a gas station, a service station, utility buildings, shopping pavilions, and shops were damaged. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c8d69y0ldv1o
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Despite the fact that every day is planned almost to the minute, I don’t have time to do much of what I would like. Lately I have been forced to work late at night and on weekends. I am not the only one like that in the company, although this does not make it easier for us. In order not to undermine my health, I try to sleep at least 7 hours a day under any circumstances.
Now I have less time to read the news, but I have found a way to practice English and learn the latest news at the same time. During my commute to work, I listen to the news on the BBC podcast. In addition to the news itself, you learn a lot of interesting things from the comments of the presenters. This allows you to better understand how people live in England and what to expect in Ukraine.
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Wlad, you are an amazingly disciplined person. You could charge substantial sums for self-improvement seminars on living a disciplined life.
So the Trump administration is seeking to defund international war crimes and accountability efforts. Why pay for that esoteric trifle when already they suddenly withheld billions in lawfully authorized US funding for even basic food and medicine to the most wretched starving people in the world?
Besides, no need to worry about lawlessness abroad when in the US they are daily refusing their constitutional responsibility to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed”, attempting to rule by decree, and sometimes imprisoning people without due process. Not to mention that Donald admires strong authoritarian rulers anyway.
In this regard I’m a bit puzzled as to why there isn’t more camaraderie between Trump and Zelensky. They seem have in common methods to rule their people, and arguably Zelensky has surpassed Trump’s pal Putin in some ways.
By all means, diplomats and leaders should play to Trump’s ego in the simplest way because it works. Gifts work too: another White Elephant aircraft perhaps, or if on a budget, a new gold plated toilet might be well received. These are not emoluments, you see, since after his term they will supposedly go to his Presidential Library, and only slightly used. Unless they could fit in a closet or bathroom at Mar A Largo - which makes a toilet gift even more attractive as well as less expensive.
I’m glad to see Zelensky update his wardrobe. By now the military pants and t-shirts are passé, and threadbare besides. Of course, those more equal than the rest of us deserve better things, as you point out.
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Sad news of the missile strikes around Dnipro.
The sanctions are now like a coarse sieve. How disgusting that Taiwan is involved, though the US spends a lot of effort and money to defend it from China.
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Wlad, you are an amazingly disciplined person. You could charge substantial sums for self-improvement seminars on living a disciplined life.
Thank you, Bob!
I just have to be efficient. Although I am still far from this accountant)
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2140479/
Sad news of the missile strikes around Dnipro.
Today there was another one. I was just talking on the phone with a colleague from Dnipro when she started to cry and swear. And then again. I jokingly asked what exactly I had said to her that caused such a reaction, to which she replied that something exploded loudly next to her. It was a ballistic missile. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3w4xx2zxjno
There were also explosions in Kyiv at night, although I didn’t see anything about the consequences in the news. Colleagues in the office said that they spent midnight, some in the bathroom, some in the corridor. One girl was just in the common hall on the first floor of her building. I am one of those who tries to sleep in bed because my heart will kill me before the missiles if I don’t sleep.
On the night of June 27, Ukrainian units struck the russian military airfield "Marinovka", located in the Volgograd region. According to preliminary data, at least four enemy Su-34 aircraft were damaged as a result of the attack. The technical area, where combat aircraft maintenance and repair are carried out, was also hit. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/ukrajinski-sili-atakuvali-aviabazu-v-rf-urazheno-chotiri-litaki-su-34-.html
Unfortunately, the consequences are incomparable.
russian dictator Vladimir putin has said Moscow is ready to hold a third round of talks with Ukraine. According to him, “both sides are in active contact.” The Kremlin leader says the heads of delegations are currently discussing a possible date for a new meeting.
In turn, US President Donald Trump told his Turkish counterpart that he would attend potential peace talks between Ukraine and russia in Turkey if putin also agreed to participate.
https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/moskva-gotova-do-novogo-raundu-peremovin-z-kiyevom-zayaviv-putin-50525619.html
The russian government plans to reduce defense spending, the share of which in the budget has already reached record levels since the times of the USSR. Kremlin leader Vladimir putin announced the reduction in spending at the Eurasian Economic Union summit in Minsk, the Express newspaper writes. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/putin-vpershe-publichno-viznav-problemi-v-ekonomitsi-rosiya-skorotit-vidatki-na-oboronu
Earlier, during the international economic forum in St. Petersburg, a number of high-ranking officials and heads of large companies announced serious problems in the russian economy. For example, the country's Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov complained that the country was already "on the verge" of an economic recession. And the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina warned about the depletion of resources that allowed the economy to grow in conditions of hostilities and sanctions. According to her, the free labor force, and the unused capacities of enterprises, and the reserves of the National Welfare Fund, two-thirds of the liquid assets of which have already been spent, have run out and are needed to increase production.
This sounds encouraging, if you don't take into account the fact that the Ukrainian currency, the hryvnia, has started to weaken again, and the russians are advancing on the front every day.
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russia massively attacked Ukraine at night with "Calibers" from the sea, Kh-101 missiles from Tu-95MS bombers, aeroballistic "Daggers", ballistic missiles from ground-based complexes and drones. Destruction is known in Lviv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia regions.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the russians attacked with 537 air attack vehicles. In particular, during the night attack on June 29, they used:
477 drones launched from Kursk, Orel, Bryansk and Crimea,
4 Kh-47M2 "Dagger" aeroballistic missiles from Tambov region,
7 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Voronezh region and Crimea,
41 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles from Saratov, Kursk, Bryansk regions,
5 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea,
3 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles from Kursk region.
According to preliminary data, of this number of air targets, 249 were shot down by Ukrainian air defense, and 226 were lost to location.
In particular, more than 200 drones, 1 ballistic, 4 Calibers, and 33 Iskanders were shot down.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4g8e09lxd9o
The massive attack on the night of June 29 was repelled, among other things, by F-16 aircraft, whose pilots destroyed dozens of "shaheeds". One of them was lost and the pilot died. It seems that this is the third confirmed loss of an F-16.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c75r3qk63z0o
Actually, I woke up at night from the sound of drones and shooting at them, but there were no explosions as usual and I could hear the drones flying further. Last night I also heard Ukrainian military aircraft for the first time in three years. At first I thought they were russian missiles, but there was no air defense fire and I couldn't see anything because of the clouds. The airwaves were quiet. Apparently the F-16s are finally using more advanced and secure communications.
It seems that the new russian tactic of mass air strikes is working. The concentration of strikes in one place allows you to overcome air defenses that are not as good in other places, such as in Kyiv. The loss of F-16s, which are essentially used to shoot down drones, showed their vulnerability.
One of the targets was again the gas transportation infrastructure in the west of the country and it is possible that the russians will again start attacking Ukraine's energy sector.
Open-source data suggests that russia is increasingly investing in its defense industry and expanding its drone, infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and aircraft production and shipbuilding capabilities. The russian military has installed thermal imaging cameras on some Shahed drones to improve the accuracy of their strikes, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in its latest report, citing Ukrainian military analysts. Thermal imaging cameras allow the Shahed-136 drones to operate better at night and in low-visibility conditions, identifying targets such as engines, generators and thermal power plants.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-27-2025
Perhaps Ukrainian developments are superior to russian ones in some ways, but they are not scalable. The state policy that Ukrainians should assemble drones in their kitchens and supply the army with them has once again demonstrated its incompetence. While the Ukrainian authorities expect the West to provide everything they need, the russians are building factories and producing everything they need. The result can be seen on the screen.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is actively used by foreign arms manufacturers as a huge testing ground where weapons can be tested in real conditions. https://defensescoop.com/2025/06/25/us-army-europe-gen-donahue-wants-industry-test-equipment-ukraine/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
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Yesterday was Constitution Day. This holiday caused a mixed reaction in society.
Someone drew attention to the fact that Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga stood calmly at the Constitution Day celebrations next to the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine — Minister for National Unity of Ukraine Oleksiy Chernyshov, who is accused of corruption. The Supreme Anti-Corruption Court has chosen a preventive measure in the corruption case of Oleksiy Chernyshov, suspected of abuse of office and obtaining illegal benefits in a particularly large amount. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1e0g07qg31o
Perhaps in any normal country, such accusations would immediately lead to resignation, but the Ukrainian authorities either consider such things normal or are extremely consolidated and will protect their people under any circumstances.
Someone quotes the Constitution, pointing to its gross violation by the authorities, namely Article 5, which states that no one can usurp state power, Article 33, which guarantees freedom of movement and the right to freely leave the territory of Ukraine, Article 34, which guarantees everyone the right to freedom of thought and speech, to freely express their views and beliefs, Article 103, according to which the President of Ukraine is elected for a term of five years, and so on.
Someone recalls the statement made by Volodymyr Zelensky back in 2022 that the Constitution is "on pause" and suggests congratulating on the holiday "Pause Day".
In fact, the phrase was "All the rights guaranteed by the Constitution of Ukraine, for you and me personally as representatives of our state, are on pause," but in reality it turned out that this did not apply to the government, but to the people.
And someone simply says that the Ukraine that he loved, that he was comfortable in, that he defended ... has been almost destroyed in recent years ... and it wasn't the russians who did it ...
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I would like to think that if the Russians had not attacked, then the Constitution would not have been "paused." But, who knows? Are the authorities acting in good faith on it being only a pause, or are they doing what they've always wanted to do. only now they can blame it on the Russians?
In either case, the authorities seem to be hollowing out the country's future, in an attempt to preserve its present. I read the following in my morning geopolitical update:
"Ukraine is facing a growing social crisis due to the mass emigration of young people, particularly school-age children and university students, according to the investigative outlet NGL.media. At the start of the 2024-25 school year, only 3.74 million students remained in Ukraine’s education system, the lowest figure in 30 years. The report estimates that about 720,000 Ukrainian schoolchildren are now studying abroad. The trend is expected to accelerate, as young men seek to avoid conscription and women pursue better opportunities overseas. This outflow threatens not only higher education but also the future labor market."
You have obviously seen a microcosm of this in your own family. The lack of constitutional protections is only making the demographics of Ukraine grayer and older. Not a good demographic situation, on top of the war situation.
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We will never know how it will be, but I am saddened by the fact that Ukraine is turning into Lebanon or Syria or Afghanistan, or something in between. Although I understand that it is not worth demanding much from those people who seized power in the country.
In the meantime, life goes on. Only in my unit another employee is fired, and Sergiy says that they cannot even find a security guard whose job is to sleep near the front door. And I am not sure that I will be able to continue in such conditions for a long time. It is simply physically impossible, and my self-respect does not allow me to do badly.
With the outbreak of full-scale war, Poland opened its doors to millions of Ukrainians, providing them with access to healthcare, education, and legal employment. However, more and more Ukrainians are now considering moving to other EU countries, including Germany, which could have serious consequences for the Polish economy and demographic situation.
Today, Ukrainians contribute up to 2.7% of Poland’s gross domestic product, and their presence could bring up to PLN 33 billion to the state budget annually. Most work in low-paid jobs, which allows Poles to move up the career ladder. However, a mass exodus of Ukrainian workers could lead to a shortage of personnel in key industries.
The loss of demographic potential will be a particularly painful blow. Approximately 40% of Ukrainian refugees are children, while in Poland the share of children in the population is almost half that. The departure of Ukrainian families will mean the loss of chances for the rejuvenation of the nation and strengthening the demographic balance.
https://patrioty.org.ua/ecomomic/iakshcho-ukraintsi-pochnut-vyizhdzhaty-z-polshchi-kraina-ryzykuie-vtratyty-maibutnie-robochi-ruky-ta-postupovo-starityme--inpoland-559706.html
It was quiet in Kyiv today, but Ukrainian drones carried out strikes on the territory of the russian Federation, attacking cities in the Saratov and Rostov regions. https://sprotyv.info/video/droni-atakuvali-saratov-ta-engels-aeroport-zupiniv-robotu-video/
Military facilities in the occupied territories were also hit, but that is still not enough. https://novosti.dn.ua/news/400596-udar-po-donetsku-shho-okupanty-perehovuvaly-u-budivli-kolyshnogo-instytutu
I also read a good article on the BBC about how many families were left separated by the front line, not seeing their loved ones for many years and not even being able to bury them when they died. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c7vrzp5me59o
Politico published an article about what the Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low.
The decision was driven by the Pentagon’s policy chief, Elbridge Colby, and was made after a review of Pentagon munitions stockpiles, leading to concerns that the total number of artillery rounds, air defense missiles and precision munitions was sinking, according to three people familiar with the issue.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/01/pentagon-munitions-ukraine-halt-00436048
According to the New York Times the suspension includes air defense interceptors, and it will directly affect Ukraine’s ability to fend off escalating russian air assaults. Among the munitions now being withheld are missiles for U.S.-designed Patriot air defense systems, precision artillery rounds and other missiles that Ukraine fires from its American-made F-16 fighter jets. Although it is unclear how many weapons were included, the signal seems clear: Washington is disengaging from the war. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-trump-weapons.html
It's almost midnight and the air raid siren sounds again...
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I’m sorry to hear that your work conditions seem to be deteriorating on top of the rest of the situation in the country. Sometimes I really don’t know what to say. I have no doubt that you are carefully considering all possible courses of action and trust that whatever you choose will be successful.
I’m not surprised that there is an assessment of US weapons stockpiles being too low. It was recognized at least a year or two ago that US weapons production would need to be increased dramatically just to stay in equilibrium, but such things take a very long time to implement. And that assumes money to pay for it which is hardly assured. Independently of this, Trump continues down the path of completely washing his hands of the war.
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Now we have news that the Pentagon did not think shipments to to Ukraine were causing US weapons stockpiles to fall below minimums:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/hegseth-halted-weapons-ukraine-military-analysis-aid-wouldnt-jeopardiz-rcna216790
If true, one possibility is that Hegseth stopped deliveries again, for the third time apparently on his own authority, and may be reversed soon. Another is that anti China hawks in the administration convinced Hegseth or Trump or both to ignore the clear and present danger of Russia and prepare instead for attacks on Taiwan. Yet Another is that Trump has given up on Ukraine because it’s just too difficult for him to be tough on his implacable yet hypnotically manipulative pal Putin, and doesn’t like Ukraine, Europe, or Zelensky anyway.
Lastly it may be that Trump thinks more personal accolades and wealth will accrue to him personally if he placates Putin for a Trump hotel in Moscow and continues to help Israel to fight Iran and proxies while eliminating troublesome Gazans so it can be turned into a Trumpian Riviera by Jared. (In this regard note the enthusiastic administration support for the trickle of food aid being used by Israel to force civilian relocations and backed by mercenaries said to include Americans, resulting in many deaths and the withdrawal of more substantial UN and other aid). Or it could be some mix of these.
To me the only consistent threads in the chaos are that Trump always underestimates or ignores the threat that Putin presents to the world and not confronting him in any effective way, and that Trump’s pathology causes him to be always focused on his own opinions and desires and devoid of genuine concerns for other people.
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I don't know what the real reason for Trump's behavior is. Perhaps the truth is somewhere in the middle. It seems to me that there is an agreement on the division of influence - the US does what it wants in the Middle East, and russia does what it can in Europe. Perhaps Germany and France have their own secret agreements with russia.
It is obvious that for Ukrainians in this situation the choice is between bad and even worse. And it will get worse every day. And as of today, the Belarusian option would look like a good option, when the unoccupied part of Ukraine will remain formally independent, but will be under the full influence of russia and dependent on it.
Perhaps the sudden active discussion by the Ukrainian authorities of the possibility of holding elections is associated with certain guarantees of keeping the stolen money and leaving Ukraine in exchange for ending the resistance.
So far, the pressure on the front and the shelling of Ukraine with missiles and drones are gradually increasing.
One person has been killed and 26 others were injured after a night of intensive russian strikes on almost every district in Kyiv, officials say. Ukraine said russia fired a 550 drones and 11 missiles. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2g3qvz0pvo
This seems to be a new record and I am surprised at such a low number of casualties given the scale of the attack and the destruction. Electrical transformers are reported to have been hit, but the size of the fires indicates that other important targets were also hit. https://ua.news/ua/capital/masovana-ataka-na-kiyiv-rosiiani-zruinuvali-transformatorni-pidstantsiyi
Explosions also occurred in other cities in Ukraine, and the Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert Brovdy, warned of the likelihood of russia launching 1,000 or more Shahed drones for a simultaneous attack on the territory of Ukraine within one day. https://24tv.ua/vibuhi-prolunali-pavlogradi_n2862716
https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/335232-rossiya-budet-zapuskat-i-1000-shakhedov-v-sutki-komanduyuschiy-sil-bespilotnykh-sistem-madyar
The strikes came hours after a call between US President Donald Trump and russia's Vladimir putin, after which Trump said he was "disappointed" that putin was not ready to end the war against Ukraine. Moscow says the war will continue for as long as it is necessary to reach its objectives. According to the Kremlin, the call lasted almost an hour. The russian President congratulated his colleague on the US Independence Day (July 4), and noted that "russia played a significant role in the formation of American statehood." https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cx2392y5j4xo?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
Apparently, today's fireworks were in honor of the holiday.
Talk is talk, and actions are actions. I prefer to watch actions, not listen to words. Whatever Trump says, his actions undoubtedly favor russia.
US President Donald Trump is backing down in his support for Ukraine. Instead, кrussia is using the opportunity to step up ground offensives and bomb Ukrainian territory. putin’s strategy is aimed at breaking Ukraine’s ability and will to wage war by increasing pressure on its military and civilian population, The Wall Street Journal notes. It adds that Ukraine is now facing a summer of relentless attacks from russia, and Trump’s efforts to achieve peace have reached a dead end.
Analysts say the latest developments are strengthening Moscow’s confidence that it can outlast Ukraine and its allies in a war of attrition. They explain this by saying that Kyiv will have to save material resources, and this move is likely to accelerate russian successes on the battlefield.
But capturing territory may not be russia’s most important goal at this stage of the war, the media emphasizes. Instead, some analysts say, putin wants to "grind" the troops and equipment of his smaller neighbor and undermine support from the civilian population and the West. https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine-putin-pressure-f19ca5b0?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
Surprisingly, not so long ago, the same was said about russia, whose resources Ukraine grinds.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing did not want to see russia`s loss in Ukraine because it feared the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.
At the same time, Wang Yi rejected accusations that China is supporting the Kremlin financially and with weapons in the war against Ukraine. Beijing insists that "the conflict would have ended long ago if that were the case."
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article
The attack lasted all night until 9 a.m. I couldn't sleep because of the high intensity of the drones, which were buzzing and circling around like mad sky bikers. Between the waves of drones, ballistic missiles flew in, the explosions of which, together with air defence fire, turned on the alarms of cars parked nearby on the street.
The city was in chaos, the railway tracks were damaged and several streets were blocked. Public transport was not working well, there were many traffic jams and accidents. The acrid smoke, heat and lack of wind made it difficult to breathe and I decided to stay home. By lunchtime I had a headache, but surprisingly I worked very efficiently today and by evening I had freed my head from most of the hassle. At seven in the evening I looked out the window and saw that the wind had picked up, which dispersed the smoke. I remembered that I had not ridden a bicycle for a long time and decided to fix that. The ride was refreshing and filled me with strength. It was a wonderful contrast and I thanked God again for giving me the strength to live to this day and for saving me from all dangers.
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Wlad, I’m very relieved that you were safe throughout the barrage of drones and missiles, and were able to get out and ride your bike. It’s quite remarkable that even with such a massive attack, the defenses [apparently] held the damage and casualties to a relatively low level, though even one is too many.
I believe that everyone understands the message that Putin repeatedly sends to Trump, except Trump himself, which is: “You are my bitch”.
I’m referring of course to the massive attacks on Ukraine shortly after a personal phone call between them in which Trump asks Putin for a ceasefire. My count is at two, though I may have missed some. I said it before, Trump is either a Russian asset or the most “useful idiot” ever since Lenin’s time.
Yes his actions are bad for Ukraine and the trend has been downward for a long time. I think the WSJ is being polite. Trump’s peace efforts, such as they were, have failed miserably, not merely stuck at a dead end.
I agree it’s fruitless to take anything Trump says at full face value. However, my observation is that when he repeats something several times over a period of time it does indicate a direction that he will very likely take.
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An article about Trump's style just came out. How Trump is using the 'Madman Theory' to try to change the world (and it's working) https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxww2kez0go
Nevertheless, Trump has already helped putin more than anyone else - he has brought putin out of international isolation, which was one of his biggest problems.
This weekend I had to devote a lot of time to work again, but I also managed to relax a little and even read something that, to me, indicates very important things. And this is not the weather forecast, which promises hellish heat next week - more than 30C. Last week, when I was going to work on the bus, a young girl next to me lost consciousness. I also need to be careful. I have to say that it's depressing to spend so much time and effort working to help others become richer, when my main desire is to write. But I have to provide for my family.
So, while my son is writing his thesis and dreaming of participating in the restoration of Ukraine, Bloomberg published very important news. BlackRock Inc. halted its search for investors to back a multibillion-dollar Ukraine recovery fund earlier this year after Donald Trump’s election victory saw the US sour on the eastern European country, people familiar with the discussions said.
The fund, meant to be unveiled at next week’s Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome, was close to securing initial support from entities backed by the governments of Germany, Italy and Poland, the people said, declining to be identified discussing private information.
However, in January, BlackRock decided to pause talks with institutional investors due to a lack of interest amid increased uncertainty over Ukraine’s future.
The Ukraine Development Fund was on track to secure at least $500 million from countries, development banks and other grant providers, along with $2 billion from private investors, Philipp Hildebrand, vice chairman of BlackRock who was among the financiers leading the discussions, said last year.
At the time, Hildebrand said that could bring together a consortium of equity and debt investors who could finance at least $15 billion of reconstruction work in Ukraine. The total bill to rebuild Ukraine following russia’s invasion was estimated at more than $500 billion by the World Bank and others in February.
France has been working on a fund proposal to replace the canceled BlackRock initiative but it’s not clear how effective the new plan will be without US backing, the people said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-05/blackrock-halted-ukraine-fund-talks-after-trump-s-election-win?srnd=homepage-europe
China is ready to cooperate with France in industries such as nuclear power, aviation, artificial intelligence, green energy and biotechnology, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said. China also is willing to strengthen strategic communication and coordination with France on Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, Wang said at a news conference with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot.
Wang expressed the hope that France would urge the EU to address China’s trade and economic disputes with the bloc and respond to its concerns, state-owned Xinhua News Agency reported on Saturday.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-04/china-can-work-with-france-across-range-of-industries-wang-says
The EU has said it will build up emergency stocks of critical minerals and cable repair kits as concerns grow about vulnerability to attacks. Member states should coordinate backup supplies of food, medicine and even nuclear fuel, the EU executive said. Several incidents of potential sabotage of undersea communications cables and gas pipelines in recent years have raised concerns about the vulnerability of critical infrastructure. The strategy is part of a broader EU effort to improve the security and resilience of the 27-nation bloc. Last month, General Carsten Breuer, Germany's defense chief, warned that russia could attack an EU member state within the next four years.
This is reported in the Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/48216c51-a784-48f0-8420-d4165f7c80a6
There are also suspicious cases of energy infrastructure collapse, first in Spain and now in the Czech Republic. On Friday, a large-scale power outage occurred in the Czech Republic. There was no electricity in most areas of Prague, as well as in other regions of the country. The blackout stopped public transport and trains, people were stuck in elevators. This is reported by Czech media, as well as the Czech authorities. https://www.denik.cz/z_domova/blackout-vypadek-elektriny-cesko.html
Against this background, I personally have increasingly negative expectations for the development of events in Ukraine. It is obvious that the US has almost completely distanced itself, while Europe's focus is directed inward.
President Donald Trump said Friday that he was unsure if he’d be able to end russia’s war against Ukraine, a far cry from his promise to swiftly put a stop to the conflict that he made on the campaign trail. “I don’t know. I can’t tell you whether or not that’s going to happen,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, when asked whether or not he’s confident that he’ll be able to find an end to the fighting. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/05/trump-russia-ukraine-war-00440027
The Economist also gave a very disturbing description of the situation. Ukraine's political infighting gets nasty. As Trump starves it of arms, there is turmoil inside the government. Journalists report that Yermak plays a key role in attempts to remove a number of high-ranking officials and promote people loyal to him. This particularly concerns a corruption case against Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Chernyshov, the possible replacement of Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal with Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko and repeated attempts to remove the head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.
According to The Economist, alongside efforts to replace Prime Minister Shmyhal, personnel changes are planned in the ministries of education, health, culture, social policy and possibly finance. One high-ranking official remarked, "Andrii is completing what he sees as unfinished business. The [vast majority] of the people are his."
The Economist also asserts that Yermak is attempting to remove Ukraine’s spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov, for the ninth time, but he remains in office.
Sources close to Yermak call Budanov an "erratic revolutionary" who is supposedly building his own political team. "Ninety percent of the [president’s] office think he’s mad and ten percent think he’s a genius," one of the insiders reports.
Budanov’s supporters, on the contrary, call him a devoted statesman and one of the few who is able to tell the president an unpleasant truth.
The Economist reports that repeated warnings from the White House not to fire Budanov may have played a role in this, at least for now.
The Economist writes that Yermak can control a significant part of information flows to President Zelenskyy, up to 85%, according to some estimates, which fosters an atmosphere of rumours and conspiracies in power circles.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/07/06/ukraines-political-infighting-gets-nasty
Of course, drone attacks continue daily. On the afternoon of July 5, russia struck Starokostyantyniv in the Khmelnytsky region. Before that, on the night of July 4-5, the russians launched 322 strike drones into Ukraine. The main direction of the night strike also fell on the city of Starokostyantyniv, where a military airfield is located. The russian army also shelled the city of Chuguev in the Kharkiv region, where children were injured.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c8rpvrkn8r7o
This morning, July 6, the russian occupiers struck the city of Kremenchuk, Poltava region, with drones, hitting the building of the Kremenchuk district mobilization center. This is the third russian attack on the buildings of mobilization centers this week.
The Ground Forces stated that the russian occupiers began to strike the buildings of mobilization centers in order to disrupt the mobilization. However, they emphasized that the enemy will achieve nothing, since mobilization measures will continue in any case. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/07/06/novyna/suspilstvo/rosiyany-vranczi-atakuvaly-budivlyu-tczk-kremenchuczi-suxoputni-vijska
Almost 100 drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked the russian cities of Cheboksary, Engels and Saratov. Drones also struck an ammunition depot at the Borisoglebsk airfield in the Voronezh region of the russian Federation.
Among other things, the targets of the Ukrainian drone attacks were russian facilities for the production of antennas and other parts used in Shahed UAVs, Iskander-K missiles, unified guidance and correction modules (UMPK) for guided aerial bombs (CABs), and other high-precision weapons with which the enemy regularly attacks Ukraine.
https://www.unian.ua/war/udari-po-rf-zsu-atakuvali-zavod-v-rf-shcho-viroblyaye-anteni-do-shahediv-ta-iskanderiv-13058688.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
The airports of St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod and Tambov were closed. Hundreds of flights were canceled and delayed, and thousands of passengers were stranded at airports. https://24tv.ua/rosiyu-atakuyut-droni-5-lipnya-aeroporti-paralizovani-lyudi-ne_n2863502
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It’s clear to me that Trumps’s supposed “madman strategy” is simply the impulsive, erratic, inefficient, often ineffective and self-destructive way that he always works because of his mental pathologies. Calling it a strategy may be accurate in the narrow sense of a coping strategy or an orchestrated excuse, but it credits him with much more deliberated thought and action than he is capable of.
The trendy slang term for this is “sane-washing”. This word captures the essence of the continual reporting on Trump which strains to explain or excuse his behavior as actually within some well planned sane framework. This is not to say that he isn’t very clever in some very important ways, but that’s for another discussion.
As for Yermak, Zelensky, and the others, I must admit that it’s difficult for me to keep track of the players and the machinations going on behind the scenes. Given the dire situation I wonder if it would be better to have someone at the helm who is even more corrupt but could rapidly institute the necessary government policy reforms to save the country from itself. I don’t know who that could be.
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The heat and rains are offsetting the relatively calm nights, so I still feel broken. Maybe I just need a vacation. But that sounds like a bad joke in this country. Although of course it's not for everyone. If you are a woman or a man who has enough money, then you can go on vacation wherever you want.
Border guards detained a 19-year-old Ukrainian near the "Tysa" checkpoint in Transcarpathia. He was trying to illegally cross the border with Hungary. As it turned out, this is the young man's thirteenth attempt to leave the territory of Ukraine. https://gazeta.ua/articles/np/_kordon-ne-pidkorivsya-yunak-zi-lvova-13-raziv-namagavsya-prorvatisya-cherez-tisu/1223588
The russians would never have penetrated the territory of Ukraine if the eastern borders had been protected from them at least as well as the western borders from Ukrainians.
Lviv is introducing additional security measures at mobilization centers due to massive Russian attacks on similar facilities across Ukraine. According to the new rules, all visitors to Lviv mobilization centers will be checked with metal detectors. Security companies will also increase vigilance and control access to the premises. https://donpatriot.news/cherez-rosijski-obstrily-v-ukrayini-robota-tczk-bude-organizovana-po-novomu
I don’t know if this will protect against drones and missiles, but it will definitely allow someone to make money on kickbacks.
The financial condition of Ukraine and the balance of the budget can be judged by the following figures.
As stated in the conclusion of the Accounting Chamber, state budget expenditures increased by 38.5% compared to January-March 2024, to UAH 1 trillion 164.7 billion, primarily for measures related to the security and defense of the state, by 55% to UAH 855.9 billion and accounted for 73.5% of all state budget expenditures. At the same time, there is a significant risk of insufficient funds planned for 2025 for the payment of employees, primarily for the financial support of military personnel. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/335489-pochemu-voznikla-neobkhodimost-poiska-sredstv-dlya-vyplaty-zarplat-voennosluzhaschim-byudzhetnyy-komitet-rassmotrel-zaklyuchenie-schetnoy-palaty
The Government of Ukraine has published data according to which the Ministry of Social Policy has become the second most funded ministry in the 2025 state budget, second only to the Ministry of Defense. https://fbc.biz.ua/news/ekonomika-uk/sotsialna-sfera-u-fokusi-minsotspolitiki-obijshlo-vsi-ministerstva-krim-oboroni-za-rozmirom-byudzhetu/
For comparison russia’s military budget is some 40% of its total public spending – more than 6% of its GDP. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/29/europe/russia-summer-offensive-kyiv-ukraine-intl
But if Ukraine can possibly continue to fight without money, I can't imagine how it can do it without weapons.
President Trump said Monday the U.S. would resume providing Ukraine with arms to help it withstand russian attacks after months of trying without success to draw Moscow into negotiations on ending the war. “We have to, they have to be able to defend themselves,” Trump said of aiding Kyiv during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “They are getting hit very hard. Now they are getting hit very hard. We’re gonna have to send more weapons.” https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-told-zelensky-he-wasnt-responsible-for-weapons-holdup-f684444b
In this regard, we can recall Trump's promises to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and his very witty response when he was asked if he still thinks Ukraine's Zelensky is a 'dictator' during a meeting with UK PM Keir Starmer: "Did I say that? I can't believe I said that. Next question ..." https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VYfAvwYqI1A
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Some more info about Trump’s decision to keep sending weapons to Ukraine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/08/us/politics/trump-putin-ukraine.html?unlocked_article_code=1.VE8.4uP3.JqzYA8rgo2cd&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
One more amazing part was when asked who authorized the recent pause in arms shipments, Trump said “ I don’t know, you tell me”.
Let’s count the blessing that at some scales have fallen from his eyes and Trump no longer believes Putin. For now, anyway.
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No one knows when, how much, and what kind of weapons will reach Ukraine, but there is bad news for those who expect that if not today, then tomorrow there will be a collapse in russia or putin will die and the war will end.
Tonight Ukraine has been hit by the biggest ever aerial attack from russia, after 728 drones and 13 cruise or ballistic missiles struck cities around the country in multiple waves. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2k19q4j07zo
The authorities reported that almost all drones and missiles were shot down, and you won't be able to find any photos or videos of significant destruction online, but on closed forums they say that the main attack fell on military airports in Western Ukraine and that everything there is not as good as we would like. I think that over time we will still find out the truth, but in Kyiv there was another sleepless night and distant powerful explosions made the alarms in cars parked under the windows beep...
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said today, that diplomatic means of resolving the war in Ukraine have been exhausted. He promised further assistance to our country. https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-ukraine-mittwoch-504.html#Merz-Mittel-der-Diplomatie-sind-ausgeschoepft
The European Union is considering setting up a €100 billion ($117 billion) fund to support Ukraine as its war with russia following Moscow’s full-scale invasion shows no signs of ending. The money may become part of the EU’s proposal for its next seven-year budget, which is due to be presented later this month, according to people familiar with the matter. If accepted by member states as part of budgetary negotiations, the funding would start being disbursed in 2028 to maintain steady financial assistance to the war-torn country, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/eu-weighs-100-billion-fund-for-ukraine-in-next-budget-proposal
But people with poor financial literacy are better off not being interested in how such money moves.
Ukraine has received the ninth tranche from the International Monetary Fund — $500 million to cover priority budget needs. This was announced by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Tuesday, July 1.
minfin.com.ua/ua/2025/07/01/153868426/
At the same time, Ukraine paid $524.0 million in June for servicing and repaying the state debt in foreign currency, of which $426.2 million went to the International Monetary Fund.
24tv.ua/economy/mizhnarodni-rezervi-ukrayini-yak-voni-zminilisya-za-cherven-2025_n2864557
Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights Michael O'Flaherty said that Ukraine's path to EU accession carries human rights obligations, as does any peace agreement. "These two sets of obligations need to be reconciled. This means that any peace agreement must be compatible with Ukraine's human rights obligations in the process of its accession to the EU," said a memorandum on the human rights elements for peace in Ukraine, published by the European Commissioner on the website of the Council of Europe Office in Ukraine. https://rm.coe.int/memorandum-on-human-rights-elements-for-peace-in-ukraine-by-michael-o-/1680b678ec
52. Under martial law, Ukraine has also introduced a streamlined format for TV news by establishing “United News” – a joint forum of several national media. In its 2024 report on EU enlargement, the European Commission recommended that Ukraine continue its efforts to maintain and gradually restore a transparent, pluralistic and independent media landscape, ensuring that restrictions imposed on security grounds are in compliance with key public rights and interests, such as access to information and media freedom. The Commissioner encourages the Ukrainian authorities to ensure that any restrictions to freedom of expression are in compliance with the requirements of the Convention.
53. The Commissioner is concerned by reported instances of alleged intimidation and other forms of harassment of Ukrainian journalists, lawyers, civil society, political and opinion leaders critical of the government. In several cases, the Ukrainian authorities have imposed so-called ‘personal sanctions’ on some of these individuals, restricting their freedom of movement, expression, and property rights, among others. The Commissioner is concerned about the use of personal sanctions against Ukrainian citizens, as these entail significant restrictions of human rights and bypass regular judicial mechanisms. Furthermore, the Commissioner recommends that the reports of intimidation and harassment be effectively investigated. Attention should also be paid to reports of the selective use of military recruitment, which could have a chilling effect on freedom of expression and, more generally, civil society.
But there is good news. The European Court of Human Rights ruled russia is responsible for downing flight MH17 in 2014 and human rights violations during its war in Ukraine. The judges are set to rule on a total of four cases, brought against russia by Ukraine and the Netherlands, including the abduction of Ukrainian children to russia in 2014 and violations during the armed conflict in Ukraine’s russian-occupied Donbas. https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-responsible-downing-mh17-malaysia-airlines-flight-violate-international-law-court-rule/
And I won another lawsuit against the state. Despite the constant pressure on lawyers and courts, whom the state considers inconvenient and only hindering, such victories give hope that sometimes we can still count on legality and justice.
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Congratulations on winning your suit, and under these crazy circumstances!!
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Thank you Bob!
I always continue to do what I think is right, even if victory seems unrealistic. That's why I take on cases where I feel like I have to fight for the truth. That's probably why I almost always win.
Therefore, I disagree with the title of today's BBC article - "russia's intensifying drone war is spreading fear and eroding Ukrainian morale" https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0m8gn7grn2o
Yes, tonight was one of the most powerful strikes on Kyiv and probably not a single resident of the city was able to sleep because of the loud explosions. People are tired and angry, but they continue to live and work.
Sergiy's office was damaged - windows were broken, equipment was smashed, and air conditioning units were torn from the walls, but they were back up and running by lunchtime. https://www.5.ua/suspilstvo/5-kanal-poshkodzhenyi-vnaslidok-masovanoi-povitrianoi-ataky-na-kyiv-355182.html
My friend, who had the misfortune to buy an apartment in an old brick house, thought that today it would simply collapse from the tremors after drones and missiles hit a nearby weapons factory. It is very large, it is bombed regularly, but apparently this was not enough before.
But we all survived this night and are waiting for the next one.
Rubio says US and russia have exchanged new ideas for Ukraine peace talks in Malaysia following a meeting with russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-putin-trump-latest-live-zelenskyy-attack-moscow-12541713?postid=9859575#liveblog-body
On Thursday, July 10, the Conference on the Reconstruction of Ukraine dedicated to the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine started in the capital of Italy. The Ukrainian delegation, including President Zelensky, has already arrived. In addition to the conference itself, Ukraine will hold talks with partners within the framework of the "coalition of the willing".
The US President initiated the creation of the Investment Fund for the Reconstruction of Ukraine. The goal is to mobilize American companies, specialists and resources to rebuild our state. This was stated by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant during the conference.
https://24tv.ua/economy/investitsiyniy-fond-rekonstruktsiyi-ukrayini-tramp-initsiyuvav_n2867514
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Congratulations on your winning case, against an unwilling state. Apparently, there is some shred of integrity left in certain corners of the judiciary?
I was struck by the recent news that the EU announced its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, which to me seems diminished by the fact that there were 18 previous rounds.
I hope someday that the EU will add "stop buying Russian energy" to their sanctions, since Europe has sent more money to Russia since the war started, then they've sent aid to Ukraine!
Most of all, I am glad that, being bathed in prayer, you and your family have avoided physical harm.
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Thank you, Braden! I thank God every day for helping and protecting us!
My son is trying to find a job, and I decided to change the format of work and instead of being an employee, I will try to get more freedom and free myself from the functionality that distracts me from achieving the most effective result in a certain direction. So I started negotiations with the owner of the company about starting work as a contractor, which actually means starting my own small business. In this case, the risks and uncertainty for me increase, but I will be able to independently choose the staff and decide how I will do certain things, without creating a conflict with the existing order of things in the company.
My wife is a bit shocked, especially since she will have to get involved in some things. She is a good economist with accounting skills, and that will help me a lot.
But what could be more interesting than trying to start your own business in such conditions? Our friends also recently started their own business, and although their expenses currently exceed their income, they are steadily moving forward.
Today I met with a friend who used to work in the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine, and for the last few years has been defending corrupt officials as a lawyer. He believes that BlackRocks' refusal to invest in Ukraine actually means that Ukraine will be rebuilt by the russians. Perhaps that is also why, despite the constant heavy shelling with missiles and drones, Ukraine's energy and infrastructure remain intact. If they think they can take over Ukraine, then destroying it makes no sense for them.
On the night of July 12, russia again launched a massive strike with "Shaheed" drones and cruise missiles, explosions could be heard in a number of Ukrainian cities, including in the center of Lviv, Lutsk, Chernivtsi, and other cities in western Ukraine. The "Shaheed" drones also attacked Kyiv. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cd0v388xxpxo
russia is currently advancing rapidly through the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia, and the White House has made it clear that any peace deal brokered by Trump is highly likely to include handing these territories over to the Kremlin. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/11/the-wests-cry-of-solidarity-with-ukraine-rings-hollow/
The Washington Post has published an article about the critical state of the Ukrainian economy. According to the publication, the country is teetering on the brink — while the financial system remains functional, it is extremely dependent on foreign aid. The expected truce has not come, forcing the government and business to adapt to a new reality: short-term planning, frozen investments, and an emphasis on survival rather than development. Ukraine needs annual international support of $40 billion to ensure basic social spending — education, healthcare, and pension payments. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/26/ukraine-economy-crisis-mineral-deal/
And the BBC ponders why conferences on the reconstruction of Ukraine are not helping. However, one of the biggest challenges of such events and discussions on the reconstruction of Ukraine is the real cost of its restoration.
And, accordingly, the question arises, where and how to get the money for this? But we have not heard answers from European leaders yet. Neither in Rome, nor in Lugano, nor in London, nor in Berlin, where previous conferences on the reconstruction of Ukraine were held. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cwyrkxn47xdo
Ukraine has begun preparations for the elections. The Verkhovna Rada has registered a draft law on amendments to the Electoral Code of Ukraine. https://thepage.ua/ua/news/v-radi-zareyestruvali-proyekt-zmin-do-viborchogo-kodeksu
Totalitarian tendencies are growing in Ukraine, and the law enforcement system is being used to suppress dissent. Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko stated this in his Telegram channel.
"Criminal cases, searches, detentions, arrests - all this is happening under the cover of martial law, war. This infernal machine is gaining momentum. And it actually smells of totalitarianism more and more," Klitschko wrote.
The mayor emphasized that this is about settling political scores with political opponents, representatives of local self-government, critical experts, journalists and activists. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1093372-vlada-imituye-yednist-a-buduye-totalitaryzm-klychko
Yesterday, Kyiv residents were surprised to see a huge cargo plane in the air over Kyiv. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/56178#:~:text=An%20Antonov%20An%2D124%20%E2%80%9CRuslan,full%2Dscale%20invasion%20in%202022.
Maybe it was transporting wounded soldiers to Germany for treatment, or perhaps it quietly brought the Patriot missiles promised by Trump and flew off for the next batch. There was no official comment on this. But for some reason I remembered Bashar Assad, who used cargo planes to transport cash to Moscow before fleeing Syria.
https://www.ft.com/content/84ef8bdd-d070-431d-90f6-332937911096
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Good move, to become a contractor rather than an employee. Personal service businesses are low risk, generally speaking, since the upfront investment is low, there are no inventories to become obsolete, and payments are usually received frequently. You can also pursue multiple customers, which reduces the risk of losing your entire income due to a layoff. All of these benefits, plus more control and therefore, more satisfaction.
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Good move, to become a contractor rather than an employee. Personal service businesses are low risk, generally speaking, since the upfront investment is low, there are no inventories to become obsolete, and payments are usually received frequently. You can also pursue multiple customers, which reduces the risk of losing your entire income due to a layoff. All of these benefits, plus more control and therefore, more satisfaction.
Great points, Brady. And all the more advantages given the tenuous economic situation.
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It appears that President Trump has finally understood clearly that Putin was playing him with no serious intent to negotiate a cease fire. Trump says that “top of the line” weapons will be provided by NATO countries which will then be replenished by the US.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czdv20v9lp1o
I hope that Trump doesn’t shortly scale this back or stop it after the inevitable whining and worthless promises to do better come from Putin.
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Trump is doing exactly what I said early this year, that he would do. He overestimated his ability to entice and schmooze Putin into a business deal for Russia, in exchange for peace. It didn't work, so he feels betrayed, and will go to the opposite extreme, dealing harshly with him. Trump thinks everyone in the world is economically rational, but of course not everyone is. I'm glad it's only taken this long to play out.
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I hope you’re correct, but I have serious doubts that Trump will be “dealing harshly” with Putin effectively or for very long.
My first clue is that he gave Putin yet 50 more days before more economic sanctions would be imposed. Together with the time it takes to actually deliver weapons to Ukraine via the roundabout method chosen means that significant negative consequences for Putin may take months.
I would feel better if limitations on use of longer range weapons already in Ukraine were lifted in the next day or two, and could be resupplied rapidly, as well as immediately providing more Patriot missiles.
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Hi Bob, I suppose those would be the clouds in the silver lining, but in my view, Trump is fed up. Like Biden, he still wants to tread slowly so as to reduce the nuclear threat (as would any of us if we were actually sitting in his seat) but I think Putin's jig is up, or is at least nearing being up. I believe Trump is going to put sanctions on countries that continue to help Russia, which will be a harsher move than any previous ones taken by anyone. To me, the really interesting question will be if this includes Germany etc., since they remain major buyers of Russian energy.
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The last couple of days without air attacks allowed us to sleep and recover. But summer remains hot not only because of the high temperature.
The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate. The front line is not moving significantly in any direction, it is practically frozen. The reason for this is the widespread use of drones by both sides of the armed conflict. Drone warfare is now setting the tone for military operations and has effectively stymied progress on the front. This is stated in the publication of The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/a-never-ending-supply-of-drones-has-frozen-the-front-lines-in-ukraine-ae29c581?mod=hp_lead_pos8
Although for those who are killed, it probably doesn't matter what exactly it is done with - bullets, shells, or drones.
What if Ukraine falls? This is no longer a hypothetical question – and it must be answered urgently, asked Simon Tisdall from the Guardian
Two outcomes now seem most probable: a stalemated forever war, or Ukraine’s collapse. Defeat for Ukraine and a settlement on Putin’s hegemonic terms would be a defeat for the west as a whole – a strategic failure presaging an era of permanent, widening conflict across all of Europe. For russians, too, neither outcome would constitute lasting victory. Greater efforts are needed to convince russia’s politicians and public that this war, so costly for their country in lives and treasure, can be ended through negotiation, that legitimate security concerns will be addressed, that the alternatives are far worse.https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jul/13/ukraine-europe-donald-trump-nato?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwQ0xDSwLgfAxleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHnIdiKDoIcTkKvZi8coSkDJzjDdRsGJTHcBKFuqSalEVCi7NRQ9iCbCmN8ue_aem_gUyVPkDHGjwq9jVN1MqDUg#Echobox=1752393980
Donald Trump has said that he is disappointed but not done with Vladimir putin, in an exclusive phone call with the BBC.
The US president was pressed on whether he trusts the russian leader, and replied: "I trust almost nobody."
Trump was speaking hours after he announced plans to send weapons to Ukraine and warned of severe tariffs on russia if there was no ceasefire deal in 50 days. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1e02q12z32o
On the one hand, there is undeniable evidence that arms supplies to Ukraine have resumed, but we are unlikely to know exactly what and in what quantities Ukraine will receive. Perhaps, as with tanks and planes before, these supplies will be too little, too late to make a significant difference. In that case, it will look like a 50-day permit for putin to try to seize even more territory in Ukraine before Trump actually starts to fulfill his promise to end this war.
On the other hand, Trump unexpectedly quickly dealt with Iran and can focus on another victory. For putin, in principle, it is also possible to stop on the condition of recognizing everything that was captured, lifting sanctions, changing the government in Ukraine to one under his control. Well, there will be a deal with Trump and joint business later.
Even Ukraine would win in such a case by remaining in existence.
A change of government has been announced in Ukraine, which will actually amount to a reshuffle of ministers.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/07/14/7521670/
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c8rp8ex67gdo
This reminds me of an old joke about how when things were going badly in a brothel, they didn't rearrange the beds, they changed the girls...
It is also not surprising that at the same time as the hunt for men, in Ukraine more than 145 thousand military pensioners of draft age are not serving in the army. Perhaps this is a reserve that the authorities keep for a last resort. Perhaps my sarcasm is inappropriate in this case. https://epravda.com.ua/oborona/ponad-100-tisyach-viyskovih-pensioneriv-ne-voyuyut-809200/
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I think Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent country - but there will be many more who will die before that is settled. It pains me to say the last part, but I am fairly confident that will be the case.
I watched a very interesting video last night regarding some people who believed Russian propaganda in the NY Times and ended up foolishly moving to Russia. It's hard to believe anyone could make such a move, but apparently they are quite naive. https://youtu.be/SxCOJCxps0U?si=xcDyYzs_iGRAJh04
Glad to hear there were no attacks for the past couple of nights!
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I would be cautious about taking Caolan Robertson’s video comments at face value. He is obviously a Ukrainian patriot and his videos are clearly made to support his viewpoint. He’s way off base and clearly propagandizing in this instance.
I read the NYT feature/human interest article he refers to and reread it just now. First, it has nothing to do with convincing gullible, disgruntled American people to move to Russia, so Robertson is - to be polite - incorrect about that.
The authors reported what facts they could gather and verify in the restricted situation and interviews they made, and didn’t take sides. IMO Robertson’s main beef seems to be that they didn’t take sides and blast Russia for civilian destruction. However, I don’t doubt that they deserve most of the blame because that’s what the Russian military does.
Robertson’s claim that the NYT didn’t report about churches being destroyed in Odessa and elsewhere is false, it took me seconds to find an article in the NYT that described the Russian destruction of a famous church in Odessa and I suspect there are others though I didn’t keep searching. His claim/implication that the NYT is characterized by the infamously prejudiced reporting of (mostly) one correspondent nearly a century ago ignoring Stalin’s starvation of Ukraine is bullshit.
I subscribe to the NYT, but am NOT a fanboy. It’s only one of a number of news sources I use. They all have their issues, slants and blind spots. As a newspaper “of record” there are few peers, however.
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Bob, Yes I agree with you that he is a Ukrainian patriot - he made that fairly evident. I thought the youtuber had an actual connection between these people leaving for Russia, and the NYT reports, but I guess that was a bad assumption. (In my view the NYT should at least acknowledge that their reporter was restricted from filing anything putting the Russians in a bad light. I don't pay for their paywall anymore, so I wonder if they did that? If they really are a newspaper "of record," then it's essential that the "record" be accurate).
Since the Russia-Ukraine war is so clear-cut as to who the aggressor is, I think it would be OK for the NYT to (at minimum) not let anything through the editorial process that portrays the Russians in a positive light (although they should not lie to accomplish that, of course).
I don't really know why any American family would move to Russia - a very sad decision indeed, as it's obvious that the husband/father will only return in a body bag.
As I've said many times in the past, I refuse to contribute to this forum becoming a discussion of American political opinions and/or politicians, which is why I haven't responded to insulting remarks about Trump, just as I was very careful to not insult Biden when he was in office - balancing the things he did that were good, with any criticisms, and of course, either only when they were related to Ukraine. I will continue to hew to that policy - it's nothing personal, I just think it's best, here, to focus on Ukraine and, when remarking on the USA, only on specific policies that affect Ukraine. Take care my friend.
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Bob, Yes I agree with you that he is a Ukrainian patriot - he made that fairly evident. I thought the youtuber had an actual connection between these people leaving for Russia, and the NYT reports, but I guess that was a bad assumption. (In my view the NYT should at least acknowledge that their reporter was restricted from filing anything putting the Russians in a bad light. I don't pay for their paywall anymore, so I wonder if they did that? If they really are a newspaper "of record," then it's essential that the "record" be accurate).
Since the Russia-Ukraine war is so clear-cut as to who the aggressor is, I think it would be OK for the NYT to (at minimum) not let anything through the editorial process that portrays the Russians in a positive light (although they should not lie to accomplish that, of course).
Hi Brady, here is a gift link to the NYT article in question and should open for you without a paywall. Let me know if you have a problem reading it. I did not find it to be positive about the Russians.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/12/world/europe/ukraine-russia-kursk.html?unlocked_article_code=1.XU8.2fs7.ST3oc_o-MrR3&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
(Incidentally I only pay $4 or so per month for the NYT for a year. Every time the low rate subscription is about to reset to full price, I decline it. Either they offer the cheap rate immediately or after a week or two. It’s been working for years. Most subscriptions can be negotiated. The only one I couldn’t was the WSJ, after doing it once successfully. The WSJ reporting is excellent but over $400 a year is far too steep.)
I agree it’s puzzling, and tragic, that some people have decided to move to Russia. This happened occasionally even during Soviet times. The attraction back then was living in an imagined communist utopia. In whatever era there always seem to be those who are disgruntled enough with their lot in life that they turn to some idealized but false hope elsewhere.
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People are usually driven to other countries by war, disappointment in their own countries, or criminal prosecution. But we understand that if a person has not been fulfilled in their own country, then most likely they will not do so in another, where they face additional difficulties, such as a different language and culture. Therefore, to understand how and why a person from the USA went to russia, it is necessary to carefully study their specific circumstances. Of course, it is interesting to hear the results directly from this person, but do not draw conclusions from some excerpts of publications that can be twisted and distorted for a certain purpose.
Bob, thank you for the opportunity to read the original article, I found it quite neutral. Although we understand that neither objectivity nor neutrality is acceptable under the circumstances. Moreover, you can be accused of a lack of patriotism. But if we are unable to remain objective, then everything we say will be perceived as biased. But in my opinion, it is necessary to show the facts from which a reasonable person will draw conclusions. For example, the article says that the destruction in the Kursk region was caused, among other things, by russian bombing. The journalist writes that she saw the corpses, but it is not known who exactly killed them and how. She also cited testimonies from local residents who said they were not subjected to harassment or violence by Ukrainian soldiers. But it seems obvious to me that it is not necessary to write separately that all the destruction and death are a direct consequences of russia's attack on Ukraine. If someone is unable to understand this, then no article will convince him of this.
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Today I woke up at five in the morning with a severe headache and found out that I have very high blood pressure. I took medication and decided to stay home. It's good that most meetings are held remotely. Stress and the weather have finished me again. And this is despite the fact that there have been no drones or missiles in Kyiv for the last few days. People joke that this is because of the best air defense - US President Donald Trump's special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, who was in Ukraine for several days. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/kit-kellog-specpredstavnik-trampa-pokinuv-ukrajinu-50530523.html
He may have been discussing the implementation of Trump's plan. The US State Department reported that President Donald Trump is determined to implement his vision of ending the war in Ukraine. He plans to act aggressively. https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-july-16-2025/?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=news_bar&utm_campaign=dpb
Meanwhile, air battles continue. There are especially many hits in the Dnipro. https://www.dw.com/uk/dronova-ataka-rosii-na-dnipro-e-zagiblij-ta-poraneni/a-73305732
On the night of Friday, July 18, drones massively also attacked russian territory, in particular the Moscow region and Moscow. The russian Defense Ministry reported the shooting down of 73 UAVs, but residents of russian regions heard a series of explosions and landings.
https://zaxid.net/news/
The government in Ukraine has changed. It has become the smallest in the history of Ukraine - only 16 ministers, but there are no new faces in it, which indicates that the government has no reserve bench. This also means that neither new ideas nor changes in course should be expected. The former prime minister has headed the Ministry of Defense, which is a demotion, but through which almost half of all budget money now passes. The previous Minister of Defense, who was rumored to become the new ambassador to the United States, was not approved there and became the new Secretary of the National Security Council of Ukraine. Rumors also say that he turned the Ministry of Defense into the Ministry of Chaos, which the former prime minister, who set a record for the length of time he was in the chair of the head of government, and was remembered, by and large, only for the fact of this record, must correct. The personnel composition of Yulia Svyrydenko's cabinet does not allow us to determine what idea is behind the urgent, sometimes chaotic, and perhaps not entirely within the framework of the law on martial law, change of government.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cqx27rv743qo
https://news.novyny.live/umierova-priznacheno-sekretarem-rnbo-ukaz-268234.html
One of the first questions to the newly appointed Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, was about "busification." He acknowledged that there are cases of violations of people's rights during the service of summonses, but mobilization is proceeding according to plan. https://www.dsnews.ua/ukr/politics/novopriznacheniy-ochilnik-minoboroni-shmigal-pro-busifikaciyu-chuyemo-pro-pevni-vipadki-18072025-525487
On Thursday, July 17, during Zelensky's speech in parliament, he answered a question from the People's Deputy from the "European Solidarity" Oleksiy Honcharenko regarding terms of service and demobilization. "Our military will return home when we defeat the enemy", the president said.
Honcharenko said that he had a "tough" conflict with the president on the topic of demobilization. "Zelensky is categorically against it. He believes that everyone should fight to the end and return only when we win. I think differently. There should be clear terms of service and then the person must decide for himself whether to continue or not," the people's deputy wrote.
https://24tv.ua/koli-v-ukrayini-bude-demobilizatsiya-zelenskiy-poyasniv-termini-sluzh_n2872309
The Ministry of Culture and Strategic Communications of Ukraine has granted several media and entertainment companies the status of critical for the functioning of the economy and ensuring the livelihoods of the population during a special period, which gives grounds to reserve their employees from military service and allow them to travel abroad.
Earlier, the Ministry of Culture confirmed the status of critical for several musical groups, and several dozen other enterprises and organizations, as well as more than 80 theaters, operas, circuses, ensembles, chapels, orchestras, reserves, museums, libraries, reserves and specialized educational institutions.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1088223.html
It turns out that engineers, doctors, and all other people who make a real contribution to the functioning of the economy and ensuring the livelihoods of the population are less important than comedians and artists, and should go to the front first.
In this case, should we be surprised when a mobilized person is beaten to death during conscription https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/336265-mobilizovannogo-ot-kotorogo-otkazalis-voennye-chasti-predstavitel-ttsk-zabil-nasmert-pryamo-v-avtobuse-vo-vremya-postavki-mobilizatsionnykh-resursov-chto-reshil-sud or when a forcibly mobilized person shoots sergeants in a training camp? https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c0j4yj37w23o
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Bob, thank you for the opportunity to read the original article, I found it quite neutral. Although we understand that neither objectivity nor neutrality is acceptable under the circumstances. Moreover, you can be accused of a lack of patriotism. But if we are unable to remain objective, then everything we say will be perceived as biased. But in my opinion, it is necessary to show the facts from which a reasonable person will draw conclusions. For example, the article says that the destruction in the Kursk region was caused, among other things, by russian bombing. The journalist writes that she saw the corpses, but it is not known who exactly killed them and how. She also cited testimonies from local residents who said they were not subjected to harassment or violence by Ukrainian soldiers. But it seems obvious to me that it is not necessary to write separately that all the destruction and death are a direct consequences of russia's attack on Ukraine. If someone is unable to understand this, then no article will convince him of this.
Yes. Like vehicle accidents where the cause of the crash and which driver is at fault is usually clear from the objective facts of the skid marks on the pavement and the resting positions of the vehicles and debris, along with observations from an eyewitness or two.
“ It turns out that engineers, doctors, and all other people who make a real contribution to the functioning of the economy and ensuring the livelihoods of the population are less important than comedians and artists, and should go to the front first.”
The policies are stunningly, blindingly and incomprehensibly irrational and destructive. How they continue is a mystery. It seems to me that there would still be many opportunities for officials to collect bribes if the policies were rationalized, so corruption can’t be the only factor. After all, successful parasites are usually careful not to kill their hosts.
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Today, Sergiy suggested we have coffee at his favorite cafe, but on the way we saw several police cars that stopped everyone in a row with an obvious purpose. One of them was in the immediate vicinity of the cafe and we decided not to tempt fate and went to another place. Unfortunately, the coffee there turned out to be cheap, but not tasty.
In general, the number of police cars is impressive. A little more and there will be as many of them as other cars. In recent years, you can often see cars that have not moved for a long time. They become dirty, their tires are flat, and then hooligans break the glass and the car dies. I wonder how many of their owners ended up in the army and will never return? And if they return, will they never see their cars? Probably, such trifles should not worry anyone in such difficult times for the country.
At least three people have died following another widespread air bombardment by russia. 10 regions of Ukraine, including a number of cities, were hit in the overnight assault. Ukraine's military said more than 340 explosive and dummy drones and 35 cruise and ballistic missiles were used. Kyiv was attacked by a few drones and it didn't bother me to sleep.
russia said it shot down more than 70 Ukrainian drones overnight into Saturday, most of them over the regions of Rostov, Moscow and Bryansk.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0v8nkyx7jo
The war of mutual destruction continues and although Ukraine is holding on, it is difficult to say at what cost. Prices for everything are constantly rising, and mass layoffs are reported by one company after another. My friend said that the company where he worked fired 80 lawyers in one day along with him. But no one is in a hurry to go to work where they do not provide exemption from the army in one way or another.
Our company has lost major clients and people continue to quit due to low wages and increased workloads on those who remain. I agreed with the owner that I will continue to manage only one large project remotely. A big loss in money, but less risk and a workload that has become too much for my weak health. Especially since I need to start editing my next book, which I haven't had time for since I started working at this company a year ago. How imperceptibly another year flew by.
The Ukrainian authorities continue to demonstrate miracles of equilibrium at the expense of the money of Western partners and the lives of ordinary Ukrainians. Bloomberg writes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s cabinet overhaul this week was part of an effort to move into position presidential loyalists who can potentially win favor with Donald Trump.
The new prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, took office 11 weeks after her team at the Economy Ministry secured a deal with the US over access to Ukraine’s natural resources. That agreement, which gave Trump a win in an otherwise fruitless effort to end russia’s war on Ukraine, came together after weeks of grinding negotiations. Svyrydenko, who took the lead on the talks in the weeks after Zelensky was upbraided by Trump and his team in the Oval Office, rushed to Washington at the end of April to sign the deal. Svyrydenko managed to avoid risks in the resources deal and proved herself successful as a negotiator. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-19/zelenskiy-promotes-allies-who-ve-shown-they-can-deal-with-trump
This morning the House overwhelmingly voted to continue providing military support to Ukraine by a 353-76 vote, Republican Congressman Don Bacon said. https://x.com/repdonbacon/status/1946340622694064214?s=46&t=4wmqwhVOM9naZdo-cYGVgw
Thus, the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly supported the bill allocating $832 billion for defense programs in fiscal year 2026 and rejected the amendment that prohibited the use of funds for Ukraine.
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That drive to get coffee was a close call. Good that you’re working remotely now.
From the massive layoffs it seems the economic decline is accelerating. I fail to see how any reasonable amount of outside financial aid will help substantially if there are few active businesses and most working age men are hiding in their homes from the conscription dragnets. Would the police go from house to house, break in, and search for men?
Perhaps women will save the economy. But then I recall there was a proposal to conscript women.
Fortunately the timing of the US military funding bill and Trump’s epiphany about Putin was favorable, dooming Rep. Greene’s isolationist anti-Ukraine amendment to a decisive defeat and stopping any momentum in that direction. It might have been a much closer vote otherwise.
On the new cabinet, Clearly it’s better to have it filled with lackeys who also impress Trump favorably in some way. It’s an existential necessity to play up to Trump in any way possible.
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There has been talk for a long time that women will replace men, but it has never happened. Imagine if your neighbor, a financial analyst or a lawyer or an engineer or a doctor, was thrown on a bus tomorrow and taken to the army. Which woman would replace him? His wife? His neighbor? Who is this woman?
In Odessa, a doctor ended up in intensive care after he was pushed into a minibus and his head was crushed by the door. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/336451-v-odesse-vrach-popal-v-bolnitsu-posle-konflikta-s-sotrudnikami-ttsk-video
In Volyn, a man fought off those who wanted to grab him with a shovel, but he was later arrested. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aLe_pKfGgY
People joke that having a shovel in your car is now better than having a fire extinguisher and a first aid kit. I wonder if the authorities would treat people this way if most people, like in the US, had firearms?
But the army itself also has plenty of original ideas. If in russia the state, in response to the shortage of drones, simply increased their production several times, then in Ukraine a system of receiving points for the successful use of drones was introduced. If you filmed the defeat of the enemy with a drone, you get points, which you can exchange for additional drones. Some call this the gamification of war. According to the First Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Digital Transformation Mikhail Fedorov, this improves the motivation of soldiers. Although you can hear a different opinion from the soldiers, that their motivation would be improved more by a sufficient number of drones, rather than the need to compete for them. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80p9k1r1dlo
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My comment about women was mostly sarcastic and I should have added /s.
Obviously they would need to have the skills to replace a conscripted man in the same or similar job. It wouldn’t fix the issue anyway since in that case they are probably already working. Or perhaps raising children or caring for parents, etc.
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On the night of July 21, the russian military again carried out a massive air attack on Ukraine. Drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles were flying. The air alert in the regions began around midnight and lasted until the morning.
According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, during the night russia attacked Ukraine with 450 air attack vehicles. Among them were 426 drones, 5 Kinzhal missiles, 4 Calibre missiles, one Iskander-K missile and 14 Kh-101 cruise missiles. 200 drones and 24 missiles were destroyed, the Air Force says. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/crl0yk24rpjo
The drones attacked Kyiv and other regions of the country throughout the night. This time I heard many drones at the same time and noticed a difference - new drones appeared, which sound different and fly faster. And they also dive from a height. Judging by everything, the air defense does not even try to shoot down these new drones and you could hear how they explode when they hit somewhere after they flew overhead.
Ukraine also responded with a drone attack. A sustained Ukrainian drone attack on russia caused Moscow's major airports to be temporarily closed and saw at least 140 flights cancelled, officials said. More than 230 Ukrainian drones were downed over russia since Saturday morning - including 27 over the capital - according to the russian defence ministry. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpvjewnrde0o
Ukraine also proposed to russia to resume direct negotiations. This was announced by Volodymyr Zelensky in his video address. Moscow received the invitation, sources report. Recently, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during a telephone conversation with putin, stated the importance of starting a third round of talks between russia and Ukraine. He assured that Turkey is ready to continue hosting meetings in Istanbul. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cglz733j6xpo
Meanwhile, in England they believe that russia’s targets are worldwide, but it is obvious that Britain is a priority given its leading role in supporting Ukraine. Indeed, some have suggested that the UK is the number one target behind Ukraine, even above the US, as Putin still hopes to lure Trump away from giving his full backing to Kyiv.
russian objectives include directly disrupting military aid to Ukraine as well as sowing division at home and inflicting greater costs on us through sabotage and cyber warfare. There have been repeated attacks in Britain and across Europe against infrastructure and transport hubs involved in shipping aid to Ukraine. A warehouse fire in London and an incendiary attack against a DHL hub in Birmingham are both likely to be the work of agents of the GRU, the russian military intelligence service. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/19/putins-spies-have-infiltrated-every-section-of-britain/
Anti-immigrant demonstrations were held in Poland, organized by the far-right Confederation party. They demanded the closure of the border with Ukraine and other countries. https://www.pap.pl/aktualnosci/konfederacja-chce-zamkniecia-granic-dla-nielegalnej-imigracji-srodowiska-lewicowe
On July 21, it became known that the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) and the Prosecutor General's Office are conducting a "special operation to neutralize russian influence on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU)." The SSU said that they had conducted a series of searches in different regions of the country. NABU detectives are "charged with high treason, illegal trade with russia, and corrupt actions in the interests of oligarchs." The Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) also reported in the morning that the SSU came without official warning and received access to information about all covert and operational measures, as well as special operations conducted by the NABU and the SAPO.
One could only be glad that one special service is cleansing others of scoundrels at such a difficult time, but there are several suspicious circumstances that raise the question of whether this is pressure on the NABU and the SAPO, or is the investigation fair?
Firstly, the searches are taking place without a court order. Although this has happened quite often recently, it raises the question of whether a legitimate goal can be achieved by illegal means, especially by those whose primary task is to protect the law?
It is interesting that the heads of NABU and SAPO were on a business trip abroad today, reporting to Western partners about their activities.
It should be remembered that NABU and SAPO were established back in 2015 as independent and autonomous bodies outside the existing system of law enforcement agencies to combat corruption and other criminal offenses committed by senior officials and posing a threat to national security at the request of the EU and the IMF.
Some believe that the attack on NABU and SAPO is a reaction to the recent investigation into former Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov, who is considered close to the president and the head of his office, as well as other corrupt actions among the senior officials. A number of influential current and former SSU employees are also under investigation by NABU.
There is also an opinion that the authorities will try to completely eliminate such inconvenient bodies as NABU and SAPO, having previously discredited them. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cgmw01mkw2po
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Ukraine’s new prime minister said she’s likely to seek more financing from the International Monetary Fund as she sets out to shore up the nation’s fiscal needs with no end in sight to russia’s war.
Yuliia Svyrydenko, a 39-year-old ally of President Volodymyr Zelensky who became Ukraine’s second female head of government last week, laid out the budget squeeze in stark terms. Global donors have so far earmarked only half of the estimated $75 billion that the war-strained budget requires over the next two years, she said.
In particular, with the IMF loan program worth about $16 billion set to expire in 2027, the uncertainty over the duration of the war is likely to lead to discussions of a new plan during the lender’s review next month, the premier said.
In the interview, Svyrydenko sought to play down the issue of corruption, citing polls showing that while a large majority believe graft is widespread, far fewer have encountered such activity.
“To be frank, within Ukrainian society and certain social groups, the issue is being amplified and overemphasized,” the premier said. Outside observers, on the other hand, “assess Ukraine based on different metrics,” she said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-22/ukraine-s-new-premier-is-preparing-to-seek-a-fresh-imf-program
Well, okay. Maybe she personally didn't take bribes, or maybe she just wasn't given any. Or maybe she just says what she has to say.
But this is too painful a topic for the people, which can be used and is already being used to attack the authorities. In Kyiv, on July 22, citizens gathered for a protest after the adoption of a bill that effectively eliminates the independence of the anti-corruption bodies NABU and SAPO. https://hromadske.ua/kyyiv/248465-u-kyyevi-liudy-zibralys-na-aktsiiu-proty-zakonoproyektu-shchodo-nabu-ta-sap
The Verkhovna Rada hastily passed a law that effectively transferred control over anti-corruption bodies into the hands of the Prosecutor General, who, as Volodymyr Zelensky himself once admitted, is "100% his man." Although in the spring of 2019, then-presidential candidate Volodymyr Zelensky promised "maximum state support for the newly created anti-corruption bodies and the Supreme Anti-Corruption Court to effectively fulfill their tasks."
Some suggest that the trigger was the recent indictment of the minister, and suspicions could soon be cast on the next people close to the president.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4gk1nqp7w9o
In the evening, the parliament's website became inaccessible for viewing the details of the bill due to "technical work."
https://24tv.ua/ne-mozhna-glyanuti-ye-pidpis-zelenskogo-sayt-radi-lig-roboti_n2876385
The European Commission believes that the decision of the Ukrainian people's deputies to adopt a law on reducing the powers of the NABU and the SAPO is a serious step backwards, citing European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos. She recalled that independent bodies such as the NABU and the SAPO are important for Ukraine's path to the EU. https://x.com/MartaKosEU/status/1947663547233710152
Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko, together with the head of the SSU, Vasyl Malyuk, and the director of the State Bureau of Investigation, Oleksiy Sukhachev, were forced to provide explanations to the G7 representatives. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/336682-ruslan-kravchenko-i-vasiliy-malyuk-vo-vremya-vstrechi-s-predstavitelyami-stran-g7-obsudili-sobytiya-vokrug-nabu
The Director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, Semen Kryvonos, and the Head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, Oleksandr Klymenko, announced on July 22 that they too may become subjects of criminal proceedings. According to Oleksandr Klymenko, the NABU and SAPO have already appealed to the embassies of the EU, the US, and the IMF with a request to respond to the situation surrounding the anti-corruption bodies. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/336677-mi-mozhemo-stati-nastupnimi-za-nami-tezh-mozhut-priyti-kerivniki-nabu-ta-sap-zvernulisya-do-yes-ssha-ta-mvf-po-dopomogu
Well, this is getting interesting. On the one hand, for Ukrainian business, all these law enforcement agencies and how and what they did looked about the same, but it turned out that they are not ready, that they will be treated in the same way as they recently did with others. On the other hand, perhaps they were truly independent of the government and got too close to it, which makes them a necessary evil.
It is interesting what the reaction of the president, who can veto this law, will be, provided that he himself is not involved in criminal cases that pose a threat to top corrupt officials.
All this constantly reminds me of President Yanukovych's regime, which ended with the Maidan and his flight to russia.
Today I visited the IV Business & Legal Infrastructure Forum. I wouldn't say that this topic was very interesting to me, but the organizers offered free participation and it was held not far from the office. There were few people and the speakers stated the facts that there are very few infrastructure projects as a part and basis of the global recovery of Ukraine. If the energy sector is being restored at the expense of money from foreign donors, then private business is not going to go to Ukraine even despite tax benefits and simplified procedures. https://pravo.ua/iv-business-legal-infrastructure-forum-zavershyvsia-obhovorenniam-innovatsiinoi-infrastruktury/
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Today I had to work hard and help save the father of an employee who was grabbed on the street and dragged to a mobilization center. He is recovering from a serious operation that almost killed him not so long ago, but the main task of manhunters is to catch people, not to find out what condition they are in. Only the threat of criminal prosecution forced them to let the man go. But for this I had to write a complaint and help with advice, which is inaccessible to most people caught on the streets.
Mobile mobilization centers may appear in Ukraine, which will help avoid russian strikes on stationary centers. This was stated by People's Deputy, member of the parliamentary committee on national security, defense and intelligence Fedir Venislavsky. https://sud.ua/uk/news/video/336523-v-ukraine-mogut-poyavitsya-mobilnye-ttsk-venislavskiy-rasskazal-zachem
And from the very morning I was surprised to learn that the president had already signed a law limiting the independence of two anti-corruption agencies, while at the same time expanding the possibilities of the police and other law enforcement agencies to conduct searches without obtaining court consent.
Few deputies could remember a law of such importance being rushed so quickly through parliament. It was unveiled at a hastily convened committee session on July 22nd at 8am, at which neither the committee head nor the majority of members were present. By the afternoon, the bill had been rushed over to the president for signature. https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/07/22/outrage-in-ukraine-as-the-government-attacks-anti-corruption-watchdogs
Usually, the process of signing a law by the president, publishing it, and entering into force takes months, but here everything was done in two days. This is probably a record for Ukrainian lawmaking.
As protesters began to gather in Kyiv on Wednesday for a second night of demonstrations, Zelensky acknowledged public anger and said he would submit a new bill to parliament in response to the criticism, although he offered no further details about what it would contain. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/ploshchi-zabiti-kiyiv-i-shche-ponad-20-mist-1753296652.html
Kyiv's Western allies expressed their displeasure at the law. A spokesman for European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said she had requested "explanations" from the Ukrainian government. This puts at risk not only Ukraine's accession to the EU, but also European funding. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9w19vxjr44o
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9w19pl84r8o
Ukraine’s commander in chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky gave an interview with The Washington Post on the eve of his 60th birthday. He considers himself strong enough not to resign. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/07/23/ukraine-syrsky-interview-war-trump/
Meanwhile, in Kramatorsk, the second largest city remaining under Ukrainian control in the Donetsk region, a difficult humanitarian situation is developing due to constant shelling by the russian occupiers. Residents of the city are advised to evacuate as soon as possible. https://realgazeta.com.ua/zhyteliv-kramatorska-zaklykaly-evakuiuvatysia-cherez-pohirshennia-humanitarnoi-sytuatsii/
The previous evening, a French Mirage-2000 fighter jet, which the air force recently received, crashed in Volyn. The pilot ejected in time. It was previously established that after takeoff, the pilot reported a critical electronics failure. The plane fell into a deserted area and sank in a flooded crater in the middle of a swampy area. https://tsn.ua/ato/aviakatastrofa-vynyshchuvacha-mirage-2000-na-volyni-ziavylysia-novi-detali-padinnia-litaka-2875817.html
Today, a new, third round of talks between Kyiv and Moscow took place in Turkey. The talks were held behind closed doors to the media and lasted less than an hour. Expectations were low, and the real agreements seem to have been another exchange of prisoners and bodies of the dead, and the next meeting at the end of the month. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cp3le91jdqyo?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
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Hello guys, I've been extremely busy working on the ranch and ministering to those in the church - I continue to read here, though. I subscribe to National Review and saw this article today, which sounds like Zelensky has made a very bad decision. I don't know if furthering corruption is actually his intention, but the optics are very bad, either way. Would like your perspective on this, Wlad. Is it as serious as it sounds?
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-ukrainian-government-shoots-itself-in-the-foot/?lctg=6317418b51eb5f6d7953ea86&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MJ_20250723&utm_term=Jolt-Smart (https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-ukrainian-government-shoots-itself-in-the-foot/?lctg=6317418b51eb5f6d7953ea86&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MJ_20250723&utm_term=Jolt-Smart)
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Hello guys, I've been extremely busy working on the ranch and ministering to those in the church - I continue to read here, though. I subscribe to National Review and saw this article today, which sounds like Zelensky has made a very bad decision. I don't know if furthering corruption is actually his intention, but the optics are very bad, either way. Would like your perspective on this, Wlad. Is it as serious as it sounds?
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-ukrainian-government-shoots-itself-in-the-foot/?lctg=6317418b51eb5f6d7953ea86&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MJ_20250723&utm_term=Jolt-Smart (https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-ukrainian-government-shoots-itself-in-the-foot/?lctg=6317418b51eb5f6d7953ea86&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MJ_20250723&utm_term=Jolt-Smart)
It is significant that the leading media suddenly saw the scope of corruption and authoritarianism of the government)
The question is not even that Zelensky and company have returned Ukraine to times worse than under the pro-russian Yanukovych, but that suddenly their reliable protection in the form of martial law has shaken. Protests were impossible yesterday, no matter who was behind them, today they are a real threat to the authorities. It seems that most Ukrainians will now easily agree to elections. Perhaps the protests are the result of testing another manipulative technology and a rehearsal for the next elections. And again, all this reminds me of 2014. I think soon protests will either end suddenly, or we will see those who will lead them. Then it will become clear whether this was a spontaneous reaction of people to posts on social networks or someone's planned preparation for something bigger.
Perhaps NABU was going to declare suspicion to someone from the untouchables in the near future and the authorities were forced to react extremely quickly and radically. Thus, this could be part of a larger plan, and the entire process controlled. Perhaps at the end of it there should be a signing of a peace agreement (for someone it will look like a capitulation) by the new president, who will suit both Trump and putin.
For now the State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Ukraine of HAWK Phase III Missile System and Sustainment and related equipment for an estimated cost of $172 million. https://www.dsca.mil/Press-Media/Major-Arms-Sales/Article-Display/Article/4253428/ukraine-hawk-phase-iii-missile-system-and-sustainment
I had a haircut today and my hairdresser complained that she was very afraid every time during an air attack. The last time her car had its window shattered by drone debris. Kyiv was quiet that night, but Odesa and Kharkiv again saw major destruction and casualties.
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Wlad it’s excellent that you were able to get the father released from the mobilization center. However I worry that your assistance to him has brought you to the attention of the mobilization authorities and they will come for you, especially because you thwarted their efforts.
Assuming they were genuinely by the people, the protests are a very healthy thing, IMO. That the authorities didn’t even attempt to disperse them (as far as I know) is indicative of their lack authority and support among the people. With so much injustice and corruption heaped on top of the horrible war there is plenty for the people to be furious about, and it wouldn’t take much to generate huge demonstrations. As you said, they are a now a real threat to the authorities.
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You know, lately I haven't been rushing to conclusions. Besides, I have not been and do not intend to go to the protests to assess their scale and listen to the people there. I am paranoid and cannot stand crowds of people. Besides, the risks of being mobilized or simply getting hit on the head with a police baton are too great. Provocations are also possible, I am sure that the russians are already thinking about how to use this to their advantage.
As for the girl and her father, I only gave advice and helped her write a complaint, everything else she did herself when she went there. She is a budding lawyer and despite the enormous stress, this is very good practice for her. I would be proud of such a daughter, although my heart would break to see her crying and saying that she has no one to turn to in this city except me. I told her that God sends us to each other in such circumstances and we cannot help but help. She is a good person and I hope that in the future she will not forget that you need to help people not only when they can pay you.
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After reading your replies, it occurs to me that Ukrainians, who have been living under the threat of death every day for three and a half years, are probably not easily intimidated by their government. It sounds as if the most certain risk of death is from being conscripted, not from being blown apart by a Russian missile or drone. ??
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As for the girl and her father, I only gave advice and helped her write a complaint, everything else she did herself when she went there. She is a budding lawyer and despite the enormous stress, this is very good practice for her. I would be proud of such a daughter, although my heart would break to see her crying and saying that she has no one to turn to in this city except me. I told her that God sends us to each other in such circumstances and we cannot help but help. She is a good person and I hope that in the future she will not forget that you need to help people not only when they can pay you.
That touched my heart. You are a wise, kind, caring and generous person, Wlad.
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After reading your replies, it occurs to me that Ukrainians, who have been living under the threat of death every day for three and a half years, are probably not easily intimidated by their government. It sounds as if the most certain risk of death is from being conscripted, not from being blown apart by a Russian missile or drone. ??
This is a very complicated question. Firstly, people get used to everything. Secondly, all people are different and react differently. Some people are afraid of missiles and drones, but most people don't pay any more attention to them than they do to cars on the road, any one of which could theoretically run out onto the pavement and kill you. I think it's a light version of what soldiers on the front lines feel, constantly under fire. Or when a miner goes underground, realizing that a gas explosion or rock collapse could occur.
As for the fear of mobilization, it is probably not so much the fear of death at the front, because statistics say that not everyone dies, but a protest against the attitude and treatment of people as animals or slaves. Agree, if the army meets you like this, then what to expect next? Well, probably the main thing is that for some it is a one-way ticket, while for others war is not their business. The defense of the country should be a common cause, not only the duty of the poor. Although for the rich the authorities have come up with sanctions that are introduced without a fair trial and are actually a tool to take away someone else's property, under the pretext of martial law.
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That touched my heart. You are a wise, kind, caring and generous person, Wlad.
But it always prevented me from being rich)
In fact, I only pay my debts, remembering all the wonderful people who helped and supported me throughout my life. I too was once young and helpless, and in the same way a lawyer once helped my father first and then helped me become a lawyer. It was a worthy example and I always looked up to him. If we don't bring something good into the world, only evil will remain in it. Do we want our children to live in such a world? I hope that in the pursuit of developing AI weapons, humanity will not make the world described in Philip K. Dick's novel "Second Variety" a reality.
I wonder if the protests will continue over the weekend. It seems like they could become protests against the government in general. It's remarkable how quickly the world media is changing their minds. Just two years ago, they were making a hero out of Zelensky and putting his photo on the front page of the Times, and now they're competing to "expose" the essence of his regime.
Jamie Dettmer, opinion editor and a foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO Europe wrote: as a democratic state, Ukraine is under assault from two sources. Its first and most obvious adversary is Moscow, which has long wanted to return the country to the days of being a Kremlin plaything, a mere russian satellite. But arguably there’s another insidious and corrosive adversary from within — the country’s own semi-autocratic leadership. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-corruption-protests-war-volodymyr-zelenskyy/
Owen Matthews from The Telegraph wrote that for Ukraine’s sake, Zelensky must now step aside. The inspirational leader is no longer part of the solution to ending the conflict with russia. He is now part of the problem. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/24/zelensky-must-go-for-sake-of-ukraine/
However, still few people talk about the fact that Zelensky's election as president was one of the main reasons for russia's attack. putin could not help but take advantage of this opportunity.
In any case, the unwillingness or inability of the Ukrainian authorities to carry out reforms has already led to a reduction in international aid. Ukraine will receive less money than planned, 3 billion instead of 4.5 billion euros in the fourth tranche this year under the Ukraine Facility aid program, due to the failure to implement three of the 16 reforms required for the full tranche, European Commission spokesman Guillaume Mercier said. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/4018918-evrokomisia-cetvertij-trans-ukraine-facility-urizut-tri-reformi-ne-vikonani.html
On July 25, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky once again extended martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine for another 90 days, until November 5, 2025.
The Starlink satellite internet network, developed by SpaceX, has resumed operations after a major outage. The problem lasted for more than two hours and affected users in various countries, including the military in Ukraine. This is yet another reminder of the critical vulnerability and dependence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on satellite internet.
A previously unreported order by Elon Musk to cut satellite communications over a portion of Ukraine disrupted a counteroffensive by Kyiv in the autumn of 2022. https://www.reuters.com/investigations/musk-ordered-shutdown-starlink-satellite-service-ukraine-retook-territory-russia-2025-07-25/
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I hope that while the media is exposing Zelensky's corruption, they will keep reminding readers of the even greater corruption of the one they are fighting in Russia. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
Probably the only way to get Zelensky out of office is for the West to make his leaving a condition for further aid.
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I hope that while the media is exposing Zelensky's corruption, they will keep reminding readers of the even greater corruption of the one they are fighting in Russia. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
Probably the only way to get Zelensky out of office is for the West to make his leaving a condition for further aid.
Globally, the problem is not Zelensky or putin themselves, but those who elect them. I am saddened by the fact that the majority demand exactly those like Zelensky and putin. It seems that voters are not at all interested in the personal and professional qualities of those to whom they trust their fate and the fate of their country. That is why their successors can be even worse, because society has also degraded during their reign. As one proverb says, a girl has no sex because she has pimples, she has pimples because she has no sex...
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Globally, the problem is not Zelensky or putin themselves, but those who elect them. I am saddened by the fact that the majority demand exactly those like Zelensky and putin. It seems that voters are not at all interested in the personal and professional qualities of those to whom they trust their fate and the fate of their country. That is why their successors can be even worse, because society has also degraded during their reign. As one proverb says, a girl has no sex because she has pimples, she has pimples because she has no sex...
Indeed.
This has been a problem since antiquity, though of course rudimentary democracy or republics existed only in a few places and only for some of the people. But even among the powerful and educated elites, it wasn’t uncommon for budding tyrants to promise the moon and be elevated to leader, or as an exigency in wartime, or to bring their thugs to the legislature to cow them into submission.
I particularly like the ancient practice of some Nordic societies in which freemen would assemble to decide issues and wore their arms in case anyone attempted to seize power by subjugating the assembly.
Today many people don’t pay attention to politics at all, and many others don’t until the last minute, and then often make their choice only on how much money they think the candidate will bring them, or whether they like the (usually) manufactured personality of the candidate (“I’d like to have a beer with him”), or who their friends voted for. They neglect entirely issues of good governance and of possible tyranny vs. freedom.
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The russian tactic of concentrating a large number of drones and missiles, attacking one place, has significantly increased the effectiveness of their attacks. Yesterday, such an attack was carried out on the Dnipro and the region. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c5yl3e63kn0o?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
At Monday’s meeting of Ukraine allies, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said he agreed with the administration that Berlin would “contribute to providing” five Patriots, without elaborating. Berlin has already given Ukraine three systems and is in talks with Washington about sending more and getting replacements, officials said. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/07/26/europe-ukraine-us-weapons-deal/
This is good, but still too little considering the size of Ukraine. Moreover, the Patriots still have nothing to oppose the thousands of cheap drones that have become the main weapon recently.
Satellite imagery shows that construction has sharply accelerated at the site in southern russia. Dozens of new buildings, including what experts believe to be new dormitories and production facilities, have been rapidly taking shape since the winter snow melted this year. Alabuga, which has been churning out Iranian-designed Shahed drones for almost three years, has now fully shifted from being an Iranian franchise to a fully localized production line. The expansion is happening so quickly that experts say the site’s end goal may be to mass-produce drones for global export. In December CNN reported that Alabuga had produced more than 5,700 Shahed drones between January and September 2024, over double the number it produced in the whole of 2023. The facility was aiming for 10,000 Gerbera decoy drones in 2024, according to Ukrainian defense intelligence sources. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/25/europe/russia-secretive-drone-factory-rapid-expansion-intl
Ukraine is also increasing drone production, but in much smaller quantities, which is difficult to explain given the crazy money provided to the Ukrainian authorities by the West and the absence of sanctions restrictions. We should also not forget about the different proportions of fuel and explosives in the mass of Ukrainian and russian drones. The distance for russian drones is much smaller, so they equip their drones with a large amount of explosives, while Ukrainian drones have to cover a distance several times greater and carry a much smaller explosive charge. Thus, even when Ukrainian drones hit something, they cause little damage. For example, in order to destroy the russian factory in Alabua, dozens of drones are needed to hit it simultaneously, which are not available.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s real deficit to cover all military and budget expenses, which must be covered by foreign aid, is about $90 billion annually in 2025-2026. In 2024, defense and security spending was about $95 billion, in 2025, it will most likely increase to $100-105 billion, and in 2026, according to the new Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal, the need may reach $120 billion.
Other state budget needs amount to about $42 billion, while through taxes, fees, dividends, and financing from the National Bank’s profits, Ukraine will be able to collect about $55 billion in 2025.
That is, we have a gap of about $142 billion minus $55 billion — this is much more than the figure for the financial deficit. https://biz.nv.ua/ukr/finance/deficit-finansuvannya-ukrajini-krajini-ne-vistachatime-mayzhe-100-mlrd-dolariv-shchoroku-50532616.html
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s anticorruption policies have already provoked Ukraine’s first antigovernment protests since the russian invasion in 2022. Now, it seems, they may cost the country a portion of its foreign aid from the European Union, in a clear rebuke from the bloc, once a staunch ally.
The European Union said on Friday that it would withhold 1.5 billion euros, or $1.7 billion, from an overall fund of 4.5 billion euros whose disbursement is dependent on achieving good governance standards and that can’t be used for military purchases. The decision is not final, however, and the funding can be restored if Ukraine meets certain benchmarks.
The E.U.’s decision capped a tumultuous week for Mr. Zelensky, who first pushed a measure through Parliament that stripped the independence of two anticorruption agencies, raising protests from foreign leaders as well as the Ukrainian people.
He then reversed course, submitting a new bill to Parliament to restore the agencies’ independence. That calmed the street protests, but could not head off the E.U.’s aid cut, which had already been decided on the basis of longstanding guidelines.
Critics in Ukraine have complained about the Zelensky government’s steady accretion of power under martial law, with investigations targeting journalists, activists and opposition politicians. His administration has sidelined elected mayors and governors in many regions in favor of military administrators.
Foreign allies are divided on those steps, with some saying they are needed to keep a firm hand on the country in wartime while others dismiss them as a raw power grab.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/26/world/europe/eu-ukraine-corruption-aid.html
Sunday evening and again the sounds of the air raid siren in Kyiv...
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Maybe I'm connecting dots that don't connect, but "Ukraine is also increasing drone production, but in much smaller quantities, which is difficult to explain given the crazy money provided to the Ukrainian authorities by the West" combined with Z's so-called "reform" of the NABU would definitely seem to be connected on a prima facie basis. It's hard to blame the EU for not wanting a big portion of their tax dollars going to the "finder's fee" extracted by the well-connected in Ukraine. Short of cutting off funding until a verifiable audit trail is established, it's hard to know how to overcome this.
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On July 31, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on the restoration of the powers of the NABU and the SAPO, introduced by Volodymyr Zelensky. Today, the President also signed this document. European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen published a joint statement in support of the adoption of the law on the NABU and the SAPO. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/337394-lidery-es-privetstvovali-podpisanie-zelenskim-zakona-o-vosstanovlenii-nezavisimosti-nabu-i-sap
This story of the fight between corrupt officials and anti-corruption officials reminded me of an old story about how a Jew came to a rabbi complaining about how hard it was for him to live in a small house with several children and parents. There was so little space that he and his wife were even forced to sleep on the floor. The rabbi advised him to buy a goat that was to live with them in that house. The Jew was shocked, but trusted the rabbi's wisdom. A month later, he came to the rabbi again in tears, saying that life with the goat had now become completely unbearable and he was already spending half the night outside, unable to sleep inside. To this, the rabbi advised him to sell the goat. A day later, the happy Jew ran to the rabbi and began to thank him, saying that he had not slept so well and peacefully in the house for a long time and his life had become even better than it was before buying the goat.
A great victory for wise rulers. The satisfied protesters went home, the authorities are now not responsible for corruption and the fight against it, and one can only guess how many important pieces of evidence disappeared and how many secret criminal proceedings against top corrupt officials were revealed during the chaos with subordination.
The head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP), Oleksandr Klymenko, said that attempts by politicians, civil servants and law enforcement officials to silence bodies like his will continue, even after the independence was restored by the adoption of a law by the Verkhovna Rada on Thursday. He said this in interviews with The Times and the Financial Times.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cn85ggq2z4yo
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Sounds like Klymenko has a very difficult job! Unless he is also accepting bribes...
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Tonight was another very noisy night. Drones flew overhead in swarms all night, and cruise missiles arrived in the morning. Fifteen people have been killed and 145 others have been wounded in a barrage of russian drones and missiles that struck several districts of Kyiv and brought down an apartment block overnight, officials have said. russia launched 309 drones and eight cruise missiles during the night, according to Ukraine's air force. And although officials say air defences did manage to destroy many of them, there were numerous hits including from cruise missiles.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce930z8g9mvo
Yuriy Ignat, head of the communications department of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, explained that this time the russians launched missiles from the Kursk region (russian Federation) and this is not far from Kyiv.
"That is, there is quite little time for detection and response. Another feature that the russians use is ultra-low altitudes and terrain. The missile presses low to the ground and becomes hardly noticeable to our air defense. Thus, the enemy is using these missiles not for the first time. And today only three out of 8 managed to hit," he concluded.
https://glavred.net/war/pochemu-ne-udaetsya-sbivat-vse-rakety-iskander-k-ignat-nazval-realnuyu-prichinu-10686083.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
During the recent air attacks on Ukraine, and in particular on Kyiv, russia began using a new type of strike drones - the Shahed jets. The Shahed jet is actually an Iranian kamikaze drone manufactured by HESA - Shahed-238, analogues of which russia began to produce in January 2025. Their speed can exceed 500 km/h, and in terms of flight parameters they resemble cruise missiles. Such drones also have a longer flight range, which can reach 2,500 km. Speed and maneuverability make their detection and interception much more difficult.
This drone is virtually unreachable for Ukrainian interceptor drones, helicopters, light aircraft and mobile fire groups and requires the development of new technologies for successful interception. If a drone flies at an altitude of 9 km, only jet aircraft or large anti-aircraft missile systems can shoot it down.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3dpx5143exo
Closer to the front line, the russians also actively use aerial bombs. On July 28, the russians dropped them on a penal colony in Zaporizhia Oblast and a maternity hospital in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, where dozens of people were killed and injured. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cp8zmgp0zkko
russia’s summer offensive is turning into an escalating crisis for Ukraine CNN journalists believe. The accumulative effect of a Ukrainian manpower crisis, the turbulence of Kyiv’s relationship with the Trump White House, and uncertain supplies of weaponry, are a perfect storm that has broken in the face of the vigor and persistence of a russian summer offensive, whose progress is no longer incremental but is reshaping the conflict and bringing putin closer to some of his goals fast. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/30/europe/russias-summer-offensive-ukraine-analysis-latam-intl
The russian Defense Ministry announced the alleged capture of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine denied this, calling the statement another lie. But only a few ruins remain of the city. https://www.dw.com/uk/rf-zaavila-pro-zahoplenna-casovogo-aru-ukraina-sprostovue/a-73477648?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
There is good news too. Drones of the Security Service of Ukraine attacked a radio electronics plant in Penza, which works for the russian military-industrial complex. The Radio Plant, which is part of the Rostec corporation, produces automatic combat control systems for various branches of the russian armed forces, including air defense, artillery, as well as mobile command posts based on armored vehicles and modern means of communication. https://babel.ua/news/120164-dzherela-babelya-droni-sbu-atakuvali-rosiyskiy-zavod-radioelektroniki
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I’m happy to see that Trump is finally pushing back on the bellicose statements from Moscow threatening nuclear war, in this case from Medvedev. Whether this particular escalatory approach is wise or not remains to be seen. It tends to give the Kremlin an excuse for their position.
Widely reported (quote below from USA Today):
"Based on the highly provocative statements" of Russian spokesperson Dmitry Medvedev, "I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
"Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances," he said.
The submarine moves come after social media exchanges between Trump and Medvedev escalated hours earlier – Trump said Medvedev should "watch his words" in a midnight post, and Medvedev threateningly referenced the Soviet Union's "dead hand" doomsday nuclear system.
“We just have to be careful," Trump told reporters. "A threat was made by a former president of Russia, and we're going to protect our people.”
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Last night on the radio I listened to what the russians are being fed by their official propaganda. No mention of drone and missile attacks, but bravado about successes on the front. In addition to the fact that for the majority of the population additional obstacles have been created to obtain a different point of view and they do not know any other language except russian, in reality few russians are interested in seeking the truth, because no one wants to know that they are an accomplice in all the crimes that russia is committing.
Similarly, few of those Ukrainians who voted for Zelensky and his party accept responsibility for the consequences of their actions. Just as most of those who work in the government are afraid that in the event of a change of power they will have to be personally responsible for the crimes of the regime in which they participated. After all, now it is possible to justify restrictions and violations of human rights with martial law, but after the war is over they will no longer be able to hide their crimes. The only way not to be held accountable will be to maintain power in the form of a dictatorship. This is very reminiscent of what is happening in russia, isn't it?
But it seems that preparations for a change of power in one way or another are already in full swing in Ukraine. The PR of Zaluzhny, who gave a number of interviews with what can be called a pre-election program, as well as his new image, not connected with the army, is indicative. Vogue magazine is not something most people associate with the army. https://vogue.ua/article/leaders/valeriy-zaluzhniy-pro-koreni-identichnosti-silu-yednosti-y-naygolovnishi-istorichni-uroki-dlya-ukrajinciv-60251.html
The reaction of women, who are consistently delighted with Zaluzhny's new image, demonstrates that his PR people are doing everything right, and women are his main target audience. Especially since there are many more Ukrainian women than men, and voting will most likely be complicated for many men because they will be wanted due to mobilization and will not risk appearing at polling stations.
Mobilization in Ukraine is proceeding according to plan and is 90% going absolutely normally. People are receiving summonses and are consciously going to serve. This was reported by Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal in an interview with "BBC. Ukraine" on Wednesday, July 30. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cyvn7668v1do
Perhaps one shouldn't have expected other words from a government representative, but not a single day goes by without news about how the mobilization is going.
On Wednesday, July 30, a man died after falling from a bridge in Mykolaiv while fleeing from law enforcement officers and employees of the mobilization center. https://glavred.net/ukraine/v-nikolaeve-muzhchina-prygnul-s-mosta-ubegaya-ot-sotrudnikov-tck-10685810.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
A 65-year-old resident of Cherkasy region tried to restore justice and hold accountable the employees of the mobilization center who caused significant harm to his health, but the police ignored his application, and the court refused due to his violation of the deadline for filing a complaint.
He was beaten, then pushed into a car and forcibly taken to the mobilization center building, where he was held until his identity and real age, 65 years old, were determined (mobilization in Ukraine is possible up to 60 years old).
The next day after returning home, he felt unwell and went to a local hospital, where he was diagnosed with a closed head injury, concussion, a head wound, a chest contusion, and a cervical spine injury.
He appealed to the court a month later, but the courts refused to accept the complaint, referring to the fact that the reasons given by the complainant for missing the deadline cannot be grounds for renewing the deadline, because the reference to illness before filing a complaint about a crime and to the police after the expiration of the deadline for appealing inaction is not a valid reason for missing the 10-day deadline established by the Criminal Procedure Code. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/337416-pensionera-busifitsirovali-i-izbili-sotrudniki-ttsk-a-politsiya-otkazalas-registrirovat-ugolovnoe-proizvodstvo-chto-reshil-sud
On the evening of August 1, a crowd gathered near the stadium in Vinnytsia and demanded the release of men who had been gathered there for mobilization. The people were pushed back by police. Some videos from the scene show evidence of the use of tear gas. The number of police officers is impressive. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cq87k0z9evjo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muSzhXN_oO0
But apparently the authorities lack 90% of volunteers, so they have amended the Procedure for Conscription of Citizens for Military Service during Mobilization, which now provides for the automatic registration of women with medical or pharmaceutical education without their personal presence. Also, those who fail to appear for a summons sent by mail will now be held criminally liable, even if the person did not receive it. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/337284-zhenschin-s-meditsinskim-i-farmatsevticheskim-obrazovaniem-budut-stavit-na-voinskiy-uchet-bez-ikh-lichnogo-prisutstviya
https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/337397-uklonistov-budet-prosche-obyavit-v-ugolovnyy-rozysk-boevye-povestki-teper-mozhno-ne-tolko-vruchat-pod-lichnuyu-podpis-no-i-rassylat-po-pochte
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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that there is a high probability, many signs that the russian-Ukrainian war may be suspended in the near future. But this does not change our situation in any way. According to him, Poland must be ready for self-defense regardless of the development of events on the russian-Ukrainian front. Tusk's statement came against the backdrop of pressure from the US president on russia. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cn92xqyj1gno
In a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Polish President-elect Karol Nawrotski assured that his country would support Ukrainians in their fight against russian aggression. “russia is a neo-imperial and colonial state ruled by the war criminal Vladimir Putin. Therefore, Ukraine, fighting the Kremlin regime, can count on Poland’s support,” Nawrotski said.
However, the key topic of the conversation was “historical politics,” since, according to the Polish President-elect, there are many “important and still unresolved historical issues” in relations between the countries. https://x.com/LeskiewiczRafa/status/1950855052383695289
The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, gave an interview in which, among other things, he noted that Ukrainians should formulate their own strategic goal.
"We must clearly define it for ourselves: if we do not do this, they will try to impose it on us. So it is better to make our own strategic goal: who we are, where we are going. And then choose the tools that we need to achieve this." https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/gruzinskii-stsenarii-dlia-ukrayini-nemozhlivii-budanov
It seems that he is one of the few people in top positions in Ukraine who thinks and talks about such things, and whose strategy is not limited to the usual formula "steal and run". By the way, in all these years I have never heard him accused of corruption.
Meanwhile, NABU seems to be forced to prove its effectiveness more quickly. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office have exposed a large-scale corruption scheme during the procurement of drones and electronic warfare equipment for defense needs. According to law enforcement officials, a number of investigative actions were carried out on August 2, as a result of which four people were detained. Among those detained are the current People's Deputy of Ukraine, heads of district and city military administrations, as well as servicemen of the National Guard.
As noted, the essence of the scheme was to conclude state contracts with supplier enterprises for the purchase of products at knowingly inflated prices. Up to 30% of the contract amount was returned to the members of the criminal group in the form of bribes. https://weukraine.tv/novyny/nabu-i-sap-vikrili-masshtabnu-koruptsiju-pri-zakupivli-bpla-ta-zasobiv-reb/
The drone strikes are still ongoing. On the night of August 2, drones attacked industrial facilities in several regions of russia. An oil refinery in Ryazan, located 200 km south of Moscow, is believed to have been attacked. An electronics factory in Penza was attacked, and the Novokuybyshevsk refinery in Samara Oblast is believed to be on fire.
russia launched 45 drones into Ukraine overnight. Two people were killed in a russian strike on Kherson early Saturday morning, August 2. Residential buildings were shelled there. A hotel was destroyed in a strike on the center of Sloviansk, Donetsk region. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cly7en7zxyyo
Ukraine has launched a massive construction of defensive structures to counter the russian offensive, focusing on anti-tank ditches and barbed wire in the east. Triple fortifications are being created, with infantry building the first line, engineers the second, and civil administrations the third, to stop russian troops. Over 46 billion hryvnias (just over $1 billion) have been allocated for fortifications in 2024, and modern trenches are being adapted to new threats such as drones, with shelters for small groups.
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-defense-construction-russia-war-d72f2d29?mod=europe_news_article_pos4
The water supply situation in the russian-occupied territory of Donetsk region has become critical. Last week, water supply was further reduced there: it is provided only once every three days in Donetsk itself and once every two days in other cities, in particular, in Mariupol. Local residents say that soon there will be no water in the water supply at all. The occupation authorities have started installing water tanks, but they will clearly not be enough for all the people living there, even if they are filled on time. But it is not known where they are going to get water for these tanks. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c5yp5pz1yp7o
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It seems that Trump’s announcement of moving nuclear submarines, in response to veiled nuclear threats from Moscow, has been successful in tamping down their rhetoric. Reuters reported this today:
"In this case, it is obvious that American submarines are already on combat duty. This is an ongoing process, that’s the first thing," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
"But in general, of course, we would not want to get involved in such a controversy and would not want to comment on it in any way," he added. "Of course, we believe that everyone should be very, very careful with nuclear rhetoric."
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I hope that NABU will be able to bring the corrupt officials to justice, meaning trial, conviction, sentenced and actually serving an appropriate punishment. No doubt this will take time and will be difficult in the present corrupted system.
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putin and Trump's relationship has soured - but behind the posturing, a Ukraine deal is still possible, BBC correspondent Steve Rosenberg believes. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4wn1j7w1jo
In a couple of days, the deadline for another ultimatum that Trump gave to putin expires, but it seems that no one believes that Putin will back down. As before, I believe that he, like the rest of the russians, only understands brute force. And in this regard, I am sad that Ukraine has chosen to be a victim whose problems should be solved by someone else. In my opinion, such a position only leads to the fact that you are used as cheaply as possible. I have never heard of anyone taking into account the interests of the weak.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, stated at the meeting that the russian leadership aims to form 10 new divisions by the end of the year, two have already been created.
"Therefore, we have no choice but to continue mobilization measures, improve combat training, and strengthen the unmanned component of our troops."
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/08/5/7524903/
Well, it made it possible to hold back the russians, gradually losing people and territory, but I'm still not sure that this strategy will work in the future. For many years we have been hearing that if not tomorrow, then the day after tomorrow, russia will end, or putin will die, but I have not believed it for a long time.
As long as the West is afraid of nuclear threats and wants to trade with russia (and actually does it), and China has become its reliable strategic partner, russia will not only not become weaker, but will also begin to recover after a certain adaptation to new realities.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he has appointed Lieutenant General Anatoly Krivonozhko, 60, as commander of the Air Force, which has been without a leader for almost a year.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cedvl15gq5qo
I don’t know anything about this man, but I find it hard to understand how old men of Soviet origin can make the Ukrainian army capable of defeating the russians. In my opinion, there should be no one older than 45 in the army at all. And it seems the military has found a solution.
The cycle of training Ukrainians for national resistance will begin at the age of 14. After completing their studies in educational institutions, Ukrainians will need to undergo basic military service. This was stated by the acting head of the national resistance policy department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Ihor Khort, during a roundtable discussion.
https://novosti-n.org/ua/ukraine/Ukrayincziv-z-14-rokiv-gotuvatymut-do-naczionalnogo-sprotyvu-u-Minoborony-rozkryly-detali-329790
A couple of years ago, everyone condemned the russians who militarized education and involved children in military activity. I have the impression that the Ukrainian authorities are not capable of more than copying what the russians are doing, only with a delay of a couple of years. This concerned forced mobilization, and now children. So don't be surprised if they start leaving Ukraine even earlier.
Young Ukrainian refugees have actually helped Germany avoid falling to critically low levels in terms of the proportion of young people in society, according to a report released on Tuesday, August 5, by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). https://www.dw.com/uk/ukrainski-bizenci-vratuvali-demograficnu-situaciu-z-moloddu-v-nimeccini/a-73530357
russian occupation forces on Sunday, August 3, for the second time in two days dropped guided aerial bombs from Su-34s in the area of the bridge in Kherson leading to the Korabel neighborhood. Local authorities are urging residents to leave the area, which is located on an island and has only one bridge connecting it to the rest of the city. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/armija-rf-vdruhe-vluchila-aviabomboju-u-rajon-mostu-v-khersoni-.html
I have been there several times and it pains me to look at the photos that show only ruins left of the beautiful city. The same fate has befallen all other frontline cities.
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There certainly is a lot of information to take in, a lot to process and assess. As an American it's easier for me to assess the US position, than the position of other countries. In that, the US is past the olive branch stage, and from now on we will be dealing with Putin as he actually is, that is to say, a man who will only be forced into peace by a stronger power. The carrot didn't work, and now the stick. It will be very economically costly for the US to impose secondary tariffs on India and China for buying Russian oil, but in my opinion it's the only chance of forcing peace. (Only a chance, not a certainty by any stretch of the imagination).
Praying for peace!
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There certainly is a lot of information to take in, a lot to process and assess. As an American it's easier for me to assess the US position, than the position of other countries. In that, the US is past the olive branch stage, and from now on we will be dealing with Putin as he actually is, that is to say, a man who will only be forced into peace by a stronger power. The carrot didn't work, and now the stick. It will be very economically costly for the US to impose secondary tariffs on India and China for buying Russian oil, but in my opinion it's the only chance of forcing peace. (Only a chance, not a certainty by any stretch of the imagination).
Praying for peace!
It’s promising, especially because of the embarrassment when Trump finally realized that he was being cynically strung along by Pooty-Poo - and on one of his key promises, no less. Donald doesn’t easily forget nor forgive being slighted.
Im waiting to hear about more than just extremely high tariffs, because those are unsustainable, especially against China because it would be disaster for the United States economy as well as theirs if used for more than a very brief period, and everyone knows it. As usual, they are probably just an opening negotiation tactic.
There are other tools such as banking system restrictions and more enforcement on “shadow” tankers. These also have limitations and workarounds but can be much more effective than tariffs alone. The key thing is to impose many different types of sanctions at once and stick to them.
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The main event for Ukrainians in recent days is undoubtedly the talks in Moscow between Trump`s special envoy Steve Witkoff and russian President Vladimir putin.
US President Donald Trump has said there is a "good chance" he could meet the russian and Ukrainian leaders "very soon" for talks in person about ending the war in Ukraine.
The Kremlin earlier issued a vague statement about the talks between putin and Steve Witkoff, with a foreign policy aide saying the two sides had exchanged "signals" as part of "constructive" talks in Moscow.
The meeting came days before Trump's deadline on Friday for russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, or face new sanctions.
Trump's comments in the Oval Office on Wednesday come after he posted on his Truth Social platform that he had briefed some of America's European allies following the talks.
"Everyone agrees this War must come to a close, and we will work towards that in the days and weeks to come," Trump said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr5rdl1y8ndo
US President Donald Trump will decide on the introduction of secondary sanctions within the next 24 or 36 hours, and a lot has to happen for the meeting of the American leader with Putin to take place. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this in an interview with Fox News. https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6376633710112
He believes that the territorial issue is one of the main ones in ending the russian-Ukrainian war. According to him, both Ukraine and russia must make concessions that will become the basis for a lasting ceasefire and a further peace process.
It seems that strategic agreements have already been reached, but for now the war continues. The russians massively attacked the Dnipropetrivsk region with drones at night and are preparing to storm Kherson. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/rosijani-masovano-atakuvali-dronami-dnipropetrovshchinu-najbilshe-distalos-dnipru-ta-krivomu-rohu.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/06/europe/russian-drones-hunt-civilians-kherson-latam-intl
Tensions in society are also constantly growing. In the Odessa region, a moped driver shot and killed a police officer during a document check. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/337790-na-odeschine-voditel-mopeda-zastrelil-politseyskogo-vo-vremya-proverki-dokumentov
The lawyer was mobilized while performing his professional duties https://unba.org.ua/news/10614-zahishav-policejs-kih-opinivsya-v-chastini-advokata-mobilizuvali-pid-chas-vikonannya-obovyazkiv.html
The way the government implements mobilization leads to the opposite consequences - a decrease in the country's defense capabilities. And using mobilization as a tool of persecution and punishment generally discredits the idea itself.
One of the most cynical versions describes what is happening as maximum pressure on the population to agree to any terms of a peace agreement, including the renunciation of territories, non-aligned status, and disarmament of Ukraine. Trump will still have to work on putin's latest demand - a change of power in Ukraine.
The history with anti-corruption bodies has shown that the authorities have almost lost contact with reality and the people. Or it believes that war justifies everything and exempts from any responsibility. But part of the population continues to fear that the change of power will lead to defeat in the war. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cwy0pn98k55o
On the other hand, putin made it clear that he would not sign anything with the illegitimate Zelensky. In any case, the political crisis in Ukraine not only highlights the problem of the legitimacy of the authorities, but may also lead to a decrease in external funding, on which Ukraine is critically dependent.
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I fear that Putin will charm Trump during a personal meeting into a much more favorable outcome for Russia. With Zelensky absent, there will be nobody to forcefully point out that Ukrainian civilians are still being bombed mercilessly and Russian armies are gaining ground.
That Trump said “everyone agrees the war must end” is astonishing. It provides an avenue for Putin to claim (as he does) that he’d really like to end the war as soon as possible, but NATO and the US made him do it, Russia is the victim, and rightly should own half of Europe, he has no choice but to make war, blah blah blah.
Putin keeps increasing his demands. Does that sound like a man who is sick of war and wants to find a way to end it? No. Does it sound like a man who is afraid of consequences from the President of the United States? No.
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Ukraine is once again struggling to compete for attention on the international stage. Israel has decided to fully occupy Gaza, Armenia is signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan in the US, not to mention a host of other, undoubtedly important, regional events around the world. But the dynamics of communication between russia and the United States regarding Ukraine have significantly accelerated recently.
The Kremlin said it had agreed to hold a meeting between russian President Vladimir putin and US President Donald Trump in the coming days, putin aide Yuri Ushakov said. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4023078-u-kremli-zaavili-so-ssa-ta-rf-uzgodili-zustric-putina-i-trampa-najblizcimi-dnami.html
But the White House on Thursday pushed back on claims by the Kremlin that a meeting between President Donald Trump and russia's Vladimir putin had been agreed to with a location secured. A White House official told ABC News that no location has been set and that President putin must meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the meeting with Trump to occur -- something the Kremlin has not been willing to commit to so far. https://abcnews.go.com/International/kremlin-trump-putin-agreed-meeting-coming-days/story?id=124438908
US President Donald Trump is seeking a personal meeting with Kremlin leader Vladimir putin to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine, but the positions of the parties remain diametrically opposed: Trump calls for an end to the war without delving into the details of the agreement, while putin is ready to talk only on his own terms. Some American and European analysts fear that putin is only dragging out the negotiations to influence Trump, not to achieve peace, and if the meeting fails, the American president will have to decide whether to increase pressure on Moscow or withdraw from the peace process. This is reported by The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/trump-putin-russia-ukraine-how-meeting-f9e4ac1e?mod=hp_lead_pos8
Despite the colossal losses and pressure from within, putin is not going to end the war against Ukraine. According to Forbes, he is willing to lose thousands of soldiers every day, considering a slow and bloody advance a “winning” strategy. Despite the pressure at home and catastrophic losses on the front, russian dictator Vladimir putin believes that a protracted ground war in Ukraine gives him the upper hand. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2025/08/07/putin-sees-a-road-to-success-by-fighting-on-despite-heavy-losses/
Donald Trump is trying to end the war in Ukraine, but China is standing in the way of peace. Beijing has an interest in a protracted conflict, as it weakens both russia and the United States at the same time. Beijing is keen to maintain tension between Washington and the Kremlin to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan, while increasing imports of russian gas and oil, writes The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2025/08/06/xi-jinping-cant-afford-russia-make-peace-ukraine/
All this shows how complicated and complicated everything is. On the other hand, the existing balance can be easily disturbed by any of the main players, as well as by a "black swan" that can fly onto the "big chessboard". In such conditions, no planning and forecasting makes sense. The only thing that pleases is the good weather and the absence of shelling of Kyiv at this time.
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Yes, the world is a mess. It wasn’t inevitable however. As Winston Churchill said of the times before the outbreak of WW2, “The malice of the wicked was reinforced by the weakness of the virtuous.”
“The only thing that pleases is the good weather and the absence of shelling of Kyiv at this time.” Good, go out and enjoy it!
It was great to see you and Kate on the call yesterday. You appeared much more relaxed than the previous time. Did I hear correctly that now you are working for yourself (per your plans to do so and contract with your previous employer)?
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Yes, yesterday we walked for almost two hours by the river. There were a lot of people and you would never guess that there was a war in the country. It seems to me that the psyche adapts and you can’t be constantly under stress. Katya is constantly thinking about how to enter university, although she still needs to study at the lyceum for three more years in conditions of complete uncertainty. I have nothing to tell her. In any case, everything she teaches today will come in handy tomorrow. God always gives us opportunities, but we need to be prepared for them.
As for work, it looks like things haven't gone very well at the company, resulting in a loss of clients and big layoffs. In my case, I can assume that after I launched the project, they expect to finish it without me so as not to pay the bonus. But I’m not upset. Everything we do is not lost in vain and I will still get mine even if it will be from other sources.
President Donald Trump said he’ll be meeting with russian President Vladimir putin next Friday in Alaska after earlier in the day previewing terms of a potential peace deal to end the war in Ukraine that could include “some swapping of territories.” https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/08/politics/trump-putin-meeting
If Trump meets putin in Alaska, it will be the first time in history that a US president has met with an international criminal on US soil as an equal. Neither Adolf Hitler nor Saddam Hussein had such an honor.
Ukraine is ready to consider a ceasefire along the current front line if it would end the war, but only if it does not allow international recognition of russian control over any occupied territories, The Telegraph reports. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/07/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-zelensky/
On Friday, August 8, Chinese leader Xi Jinping held a telephone conversation with russian dictator Vladimir putin. During the conversation, the Chinese leader made a statement regarding the war in Ukraine. According to him, in the Ukrainian situation, there is no simple solution to complex issues, while Beijing welcomes the maintenance of contacts between russia and the United States. This was reported by Chinese media. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3321253/chinas-xi-jinping-holds-phone-call-russias-vladimir-putin
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has expressed the opinion that a freezing russian invasion of Ukraine could happen 'sooner rather than later', The Guardian reports. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/aug/08/trump-putin-deadline-day-russia-ukraine-wildfires-azerbaijan-armenia-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6895bfa48f08a0ea4fa1c8b0#block-6895bfa48f08a0ea4fa1c8b0
The head of the Finance Committee of the Verkhovna Rada, Daniil Getmantsev, stated that there are currently no prerequisites for the economic collapse of the russian Federation. On the contrary, the revenues from energy resources and the significant reserves of the russian Federation have allowed the economy to be fully adapted for war. "The russian Federation's economy has been restructured on military rails. It works for defense and is financed by large revenues from energy resources. russia has almost 700 billion dollars in gold and foreign exchange reserves. For comparison: we have 45. And we consider this a large amount," said Getmantsev. https://news.novyny.live/peredumov-dlia-krakhu-ekonomiki-rf-protiagom-roku-nemaie-getmantsev-273015.html
In Volyn, a group of people attacked a service car of the mobilization center and the police. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/volini-natovp-napav-avto-ttsk-e-zatrimaniy-1754645232.html
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“If Trump meets putin in Alaska, it will be the first time in history that a US president has met with an international criminal on US soil as an equal. Neither Adolf Hitler nor Saddam Hussein had such an honor.”
True, and a President who is a convicted felon.
We are living in a funhouse mirror world.
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Neither Adolf Hitler nor Saddam Hussein had nuclear weapons, and certainly not 6,000 of them, so, there's really no comparison to be made. I hope they can hammer something out to stop the killing as permanently as possible. Ukraine will have to give up territory but if there is a military mechanism for enforcing peace in the future (which is critical), it will be worth it, in my view. As Karrass used to remind us, "we don't get what we deserve, we get what we negotiate" and Z is in a very weak negotiating position. Those providing the aid will make the final decisions, not Zelensky, I think we all recognize that fact.
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The comparison is not about military might, it’s about morality. Putin is a monster and there is an arrest warrant from the ICC on his head for war crimes. He should never have the honor of being hosted by our President, let alone within our borders.
Obviously Zelensky is in a weak position. However I do not believe that Trump will negotiate as hard as he ought to for Ukraine. Part of his motivation for negotiating toward peace in this and some other conflicts is to win a Nobel Peace Prize which compromises whatever commitment or responsibility he may feel toward Ukraine.
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In politics and business, there is usually no morality, only interests.
In recent days, it has been relatively quiet in the air in Kyiv, and some associate it with preparations for Trump's talks with putin, some with the success of Ukrainian attacks on drone production facilities, and some believe that the russians are simply accumulating drones again for a massive attack. Apparently, all factors are acting simultaneously, but yesterday there was alarming news from the front, which in some places the russians seem to have already broken through.
On the night of August 12, russian occupiers launched a missile strike on the territory of one of the training units of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There are reports of deaths and injuries. https://www.unian.ua/war/rf-vdarila-po-navchalnomu-centru-zsu-ye-zagibliy-ta-poraneni-13094919.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
Currently, the pace of construction of the ammunition plant in Ukraine is not progressing as quickly as we would like, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said during the presentation of the company's six-month report. Rheinmetall's German plant in Unterlüsse, with a capacity of 350,000 shells per year, is already being prepared for technical launch, while the Ukrainian one is still under construction.
"The first contract from the Ukrainian side has been signed. So far, I am dissatisfied with the pace of work, but the reason is not only ours. You know, we are building a new plant - and in Ukraine we started at about the same time as in Germany. In Germany we are already ready, but in Ukraine we are not yet. Unfortunately, the level of bureaucracy in Ukraine is very high, and I am not happy about that," he said. https://censor.net/ua/n3568197
But most of the attention is focused on Trump's alleged talks with putin. And it seems that these people put their personal interests first, not the interests of the countries they represent.
The United States is ending funding for weapons that Ukraine receives for the war against the aggressor country russia. This was stated by US Vice President J.D. Vance in an interview with Fox News, published on August 10. Commenting on the reaction of a number of European leaders to the peace talks, Vance criticized them for not being, in his opinion, "active" enough during the war. According to him, they were directly telling the Europeans that this was behind them and that they should be active and take on a greater role in this matter. And that they should be ready to play a more direct and significant role in financing this war themselves. https://www.foxnews.com/video/6376764434112
According to the New York Times, after almost losing Trump, putin gets his ideal summit. For President Vladimir V. putin of russia, it is an opportunity not just to end the Ukraine war on his terms, but to split apart the Western security alliance.
“There’ll be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both.” Mr. Trump said Friday. By speaking a language Mr. Trump understands — the language of real estate — Mr. putin secured something he had been seeking ever since January: a one-on-one meeting with the U.S. leader, without Mr. Zelensky present, to make his case and cut a deal.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/world/europe/ukraine-trump-putin-summit.html
The New York Times also reports, Dmitri N. Kozak, who has said privately that the invasion was a mistake, has lost power to another senior putin ally, Sergei V. Kiriyenko, who has embraced the military action. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-dmitri-kozak.html
US President Donald Trump has said he will try to get some territory back for Ukraine during his meeting with russian President Vladimir putin on Friday. "russia's occupied a big portion of Ukraine. They occupied prime territory. We're going to try to get some of that territory back for Ukraine," he told a news conference. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0e99yqv332o
But it seems that Trump's words are not something to be taken at face value. The sanctions that Trump threatened russia with are no longer mentioned, and putin is now in the best shape he has been since the invasion in 2022.
According to the The Telegraph, Ukraine could agree to stop fighting and cede territory already held by russia as part of a European-backed plan for peace.
Volodymyr Zelensky told European leaders that they must reject any settlement proposed by Donald Trump in which Ukraine gives up further territory – but that russia could be allowed to retain some of the land it has taken. This would mean freezing the front line where it is and handing russia de facto control of the territory it occupies in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions and Crimea. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/11/ukraine-prepared-freeze-war-current-frontline-summit/
US-russian economic cooperation in the Arctic could form the basis of a future agreement between Trump and putin to end the war in Ukraine, according to an article by international lawyer James Tidmarsh for The Spectator. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/could-the-arctic-be-key-to-ending-the-ukraine-war/
According to the Bloomberg putin is about to outplay Trump again in Alaska. Talking to foes is a great idea, but successful summits demand a lot more preparation. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-08-12/alaska-summit-putin-is-about-to-outplay-trump-again-on-ukraine?srnd=homepage-europe
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I agree with Sonne’s analysis in the NYT.
The recent friction between Trump and Putin seems to have been like a lovers spat, to be quickly forgotten as they slice Ukraine into bits. It was always highly unlikely that Trump would stay angry with his BDF (Best Dictator Friend) for long.
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Excellent column on the continuing failure of western sanctions and policies against Putin. (Gifted link)
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/opinion/trump-putin-ukraine-alaska.html?unlocked_article_code=1.d08.L8lJ.qqFwm4HKxpOP&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
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Excellent column on the continuing failure of western sanctions and policies against Putin. (Gifted link)
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/opinion/trump-putin-ukraine-alaska.html?unlocked_article_code=1.d08.L8lJ.qqFwm4HKxpOP&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Thank you Bob!
Personally, I don't understand why the West thinks that russians have become worse off, or even if they live a little worse off, will this force them to speak out against their government? I have never heard them complain about the deterioration of living conditions. On the contrary, due to isolation and the injection of money into the economy, many people's lives have only improved. And this is a very big difference between russia and Ukraine. Even money stolen from the budget due to sanctions remains in russia and works for russia, while money stolen from the budget of Ukraine is immediately withdrawn from Ukraine.
And in general, it seems to me that the guy is talking about what I wrote a couple of years ago.
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Yes, you’ve been making the same points for some time. I thought you’d like to see them echoed in the column.
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Although no drones or missiles have been heard in Kyiv recently, russia and Ukraine have been actively exchanging drone airstrikes. Notable is the increase in strikes on russian oil refining facilities.
https://babel.ua/news/120555-stali-vidomi-podrobici-zustrichi-trampa-i-putina-na-alyasci
Also Ukrainian drones attacked an oil pumping station of the Transneft Druzhba oil pipeline in the Bryansk region.
https://www.unian.ua/war/udari-po-rf-droni-urazili-naybilshiy-vuzol-naftoprovodu-druzhba-13096314.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
russia plans to produce 79,000 Shahed drones in 2025, including various modifications such as Geran-2, Harpy-1, Gerbera, and others. Production will take place on additional lines in Izhevsk and Yelabuga with an emphasis on replacing imported parts with domestic production, said the Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Major General Vadim Skibitsky.
The production of unmanned aerial vehicles, the preservation and expansion of production, primarily of Iskander ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, now allows the russian Federation to carry out combined strikes. First, various types of unmanned aerial vehicles are used, then either cruise or ballistic missiles. Sometimes ballistic missiles are used separately specifically against critical infrastructure facilities or against our armed formations, which involve a very quick strike and at a specific location. The main targets are air defense, aviation, critical infrastructure, and recently again the energy system.
One of the strengths of the russian Federation's armed forces is that they have operational reserves. They use them for rotations, reinforcements in the most critical areas of the front. And, accordingly, to replenish losses on the battlefield. The staffing of the armed forces of the russian Federation is quite high. For example, all the groups of troops are staffed by 98 percent with officers. In general, russia fulfills its recruitment plans every month by at least 105-110 percent. To date, about 67 percent of the 343 thousand that they planned to recruit for this year have already been fulfilled. And there is preliminary data that they have already decided to increase this figure by at least 15-17 percent. In general, today they have no problems with recruiting. They have a powerful social package, large payments just for signing the first contract. They announced partial mobilization only once - in the fall of 2022 and recruited 300 thousand. The rest are recruited without mobilization. That is, people go, they are also lured by benefits - for example, free education of children in higher educational institutions, attractive mortgage terms, etc. And, importantly, families in the russian Federation support this. https://suspilne.media/1089054-akso-putin-dast-komandu-pocnetsa-peregovornij-proces-skibickij-iz-gur-pro-plani-rosian-ta-ihnij-zapas-micnosti/
On August 12, at a meeting with journalists, President Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time announced the exact losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine per day - including wounded, dead and missing. According to the president, the number of russian soldiers at the front is three times greater than that of Ukrainians - the enemy suffers approximately the same number of losses. Zelensky said that on August 11, 2025, the russians lost 968 people. Among them, 531 were killed, 428 were wounded, and 9 were captured. At the same time, Ukrainian forces, according to him, lost 340 soldiers: 18 were killed, 243 were wounded, and 79 were missing. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3r4vy5gvx2o
In the first year of the full-scale russian invasion, the Defense Forces repeatedly outmaneuvered the clumsy russian army, relying on improvisation and the determination of soldiers on the ground. But within three years, the Ukrainian military has returned to a more rigid and vertical system of warfare that dates back to Soviet times, writes The Wall Street Journal. Officers and soldiers complain about a centralized command culture that often punishes initiative and leads to unnecessary casualties. Generals order frontal assaults with a slim chance of success and refuse soldiers who ask for a tactical retreat to save their men. The russian army suffers from much greater problems, because its command treats its men as disposable material. russia has advanced for two years at great cost. But Ukraine cannot make up for its losses as easily as russia. https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-russia-army-soviet-5fa8e1c9?mod=europe_trendingnow_article_pos5
The Telegraph is trying to find out why divided Ukrainians are refusing to fight for Zelensky. russian gains in the east are undermining morale while casting Kyiv’s manpower problems in stark relief. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/14/why-divided-ukrainians-are-refusing-to-fight-for-zelensky/
You can look for reasons for this, but I'm simply stating a fact - it is impossible to defeat the russian army with such an approach, and I don't want to think that this is precisely the goal of the Ukrainian high command. Otherwise, we have to admit that it is insane, continuing to do the same thing without changing anything.
Although certain changes do occur from time to time, but they usually concern the worsening of the situation of ordinary Ukrainians.The Cabinet of Ministers approved a bill proposing to introduce fines for violating curfew. https://komersant.ua/uriad-hotuie-pokarannia-za-porushennia-komendantskoi-hodyny-detali/
War and a new life abroad are changing the plans of millions of Ukrainians. The National Bank, in its July Inflation Report, states that the mass return of migrants home is being postponed for several more years. According to updated calculations, a net outflow of about 200,000 people is expected in 2025 and 2026. Previously, it was predicted that population growth would begin as early as 2026. A prolonged outflow of population will create a labor shortage, which will slow down the economic recovery and push up wage growth. This, in turn, will increase inflationary pressure. https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/IR_2025-Q3.pdf?v=14
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The main event for Ukraine, and perhaps for the whole world, today is the meeting of the American and russian presidents in Alaska.
When they meet, analysts specializing in russia and Ukraine from the United States are unlikely to be there, because they simply aren’t there. The negotiations with Moscow were led by real estate developer Steve Witkoff, a foreign policy newcomer, while career experts were suspended, belittled, and forced out of their jobs, the Financial Times wrote. https://www.ft.com/content/89f39aea-30dd-4481-93c8-842576dff3fc
Donald Trump is preparing to offer Vladimir putin access to rare earth minerals to incentivise him to end the war in Ukraine. A number of money-making opportunities for putin will include opening up Alaska’s natural resources to Moscow and lifting some of the American sanctions on russia’s aviation industry, The Telegraph can reveal. Proposals include giving putin access to the rare earth minerals in the Ukrainian territories currently occupied by russia. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/08/13/trump-to-present-minerals-deal-to-putin-in-alaska/
Ahead of the summit, Trump says putin won't "mess around with me", while russia's foreign minister says "our position is clear and unambiguous". Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is notably excluded from the talks, and has warned that decisions made in his absence will be meaningless. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c2kzn1nw1d4t
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“ You can look for reasons for this, but I'm simply stating a fact - it is impossible to defeat the russian army with such an approach, and I don't want to think that this is precisely the goal of the Ukrainian high command. Otherwise, we have to admit that it is insane, continuing to do the same thing without changing anything.”
It seems insane to me whether or not that is the goal - only more insane if it is.
“When they meet, analysts specializing in russia and Ukraine from the United States are unlikely to be there, because they simply aren’t there. The negotiations with Moscow were led by real estate developer Steve Witkoff, a foreign policy newcomer, while career experts were suspended, belittled, and forced out of their jobs, the Financial Times wrote.”
This is the modus operandi of the Trump administration and has been happening in every part of the executive branch. The total damage to the United States in almost every sphere domestically and internationally is literally incalculable. It will take decades to recover, and in some areas, like countering China, probably never will recover. (By the way, I call him Steven Witless.)
“Donald Trump is preparing to offer Vladimir putin access to rare earth minerals to incentivise him to end the war in Ukraine. A number of money-making opportunities for putin will include opening up Alaska’s natural resources to Moscow and lifting some of the American sanctions on russia’s aviation industry, The Telegraph can reveal. Proposals include giving putin access to the rare earth minerals in the Ukrainian territories currently occupied by russia.”
This is simply stunning, and I can only hope that it’s false. Anyone with children, and involved in their upbringing, will recognize this as the parenting disaster of attempting to discipline by offering bribes for good behavior while doing nothing about bad behavior.
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Almost no details directly about what was said or agreed to in the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska.
However, here is what Trump said afterward in an interview with Hannity
Hannity: “If President Zelensky were sitting with us now, what is your advice to him for the next step forward? Do you think he can reach a deal with Putin, especially after today’s meeting didn’t produce a ceasefire?”
Trump: “Make the deal. Gotta make a deal. Russia’s a very big power. And they’re not. But we’ve given Ukraine a lot. We’ve supplied them with weaponry, with everything they’ve needed. Now, it’s really up to President Zelensky to get it done. And I would also say the European nations, they have to get involved. If they’d like, I’ll be at that next meeting — they’re going to set up a meeting now between President Zelensky and President Putin and myself, I guess.”
Hannity: “Would you join them in the room? I don’t know if I trust the two of them in there alone.”
Trump: “They both want me there, and I’ll be there. You got to see it out.”
In the interview, Trump repeatedly stated that the burden of making peace rests with Zelensky, urged him to “make the deal,” and described himself as a facilitator willing to attend future trilateral talks.
So much for tough guy Trump. He told us beforehand that he would be very tough on Putin in the Alaska meeting and put in high tariffs and other penalties if Putin wasn’t cooperative. He even tweeted “High stakes!” on Truth Social as he traveled. But clearly that didn’t happen, and his comments to Hannity and his reported discussions with European leaders show that in Alaska he actually laid the groundwork for giving Putin everything he wants.
The “Get It Done” and “make a deal” part seems to be trading all of occupied parts of Ukraine plus portions of Donbas that aren’t occupied to Russia in return for a (worthless) promise by Putin not to invade again, according the NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/16/world/europe/trump-putin-ukraine-land-swap.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ek8.s1h-.10F9xQIbNBR6&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
So - true to form, Trump couldn’t stand up to his idol Putin for whom he had a red carpet, an Air Force flyby, and provided an escort of our best F35 fighters. He does seem to understand on some level that he screwed up because of his statements afterwards to minimize his role going forward.
Of course! Trump is undeniably brilliant at avoiding blame.
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It seems to me that from Trump's point of view, Ukraine is not important and this meeting was not about Ukraine. He and putin have completely different common interests and Ukraine is only one of the secondary items on the agenda. And Trump really skillfully shifted the responsibility for further actions and the conclusion of a peace agreement to Zelensky and the EU. Trump may have disappointed Ukraine supporters, but his goal is to impress his voters, who are more interested in reducing war spending, as well as all those who are afraid of the nuclear threat.
So I'm not surprised that nothing was signed, but we don't know anything about what was actually discussed and what decisions were made. Of course, this was the apotheosis of Ukraine's diplomatic failure, but let's be honest - we don't demand international relations skills from stand-up comedians, do we?
“We had an extremely productive meeting, and many points were agreed to,” Trump told reporters. “There are just a very few that are left. Some are not that significant. One is probably the most significant, but we have a very good chance of getting there. We didn’t get there, but we have a very good chance of getting there.”
Soon after his arrival in the US, putin’s grin as he peered out the window of Trump’s limousine said everything: after years of western isolation, he was back in the most powerful nation on earth. But putin’s isolation ended when his plane landed in Anchorage. With a red carpet welcome, a flyover of fighter jets and a round of applause from the US president himself, the message from Trump was clear: putin was back in from the cold. Their smiling greeting was hailed on russian state television as a “historic handshake.”
That became clearer when putin climbed into Trump’s armored vehicle, an unusual gesture that seemed to capture in an instant the russian leader’s return to global diplomacy. Even without any major progress, it was, for him, a victory. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/15/politics/takeaways-trump-putin-summit-alaska
I don't know what Trump and the USA will get, but the global victory of russia and Putin is already obvious, and what will happen to Ukraine will also soon become known. Maybe we will really see peace this year.
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As I've said before: Trump is either a Russian asset, or he is the best Useful Idiot that Russia has ever had. I think the latter is far more likely. An asset would require more detailed and disciplined thought and work than Trump ever does.
Trump wasn't skillful at all in any of this, let alone in shifting blame and responsibility to Zelensky and Europe after such a public failure. That was merely his typical survival mode, blaming others for his mistakes and excusing himself from further participation, at least in such a primary way. I don’t believe for an instant that Trump was able to negotiate with Putin a win of anything of importance for the United States, or for anyone else, and probably never will.
Clearly, Putin knows exactly how to play Trump, and has shown who is the top and who is the bottom in the relationship. Perhaps there is an Amazon sale of kneepads and personal lubricants that Trump might want to consider.
The ostentatious and almost groveling welcome given to Putin was sickening. I wonder how much of it was ordered by the subconscious mind of a sad little boy trying desperately to impress his distant and horribly critical father.
I’m watching for a delayed angry bullying reaction from Trump, projected on people who cannot effectively fight back.
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BORIS JOHNSON: It's the most vomit-inducing episode in all the tawdry history of international diplomacy but it will have taught Trump this vital lesson…
What about Britain? What about Europe? When are we going to have the courage to do the same? This is our continent. We continually demand leadership from America – and yet when we get that leadership we don’t even have the guts to follow suit.
One day this war will end with a peace that protects Ukrainian freedom; but as Trump said in Alaska, the Europeans – led by Britain – will have to step up.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-15006137/BORIS-JOHNSON-Alaska-Ukraine-Putin-history-diplomacy-Trump.html
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No argument from me. Europeans need to do much more to police their neighborhood.
There are some who think the Alaska meeting was just theatre to set up a Putin-Zelensky-EU meeting at which the real negotiations will take place. I think that is wrong.
I think that Europe is less of a concern to Putin than the US is. They don’t have the capacity as yet to produce enough weapons of the type and quantities needed by Ukraine, and in some important cases can’t produce them at all.
And then they have to consider whether erratic Trump and a feckless Congress would tire of the mess and refuse to provide large quantities of weapons and other matériel, even if purchased or needed for NATO. Especially so as the US deficit balloons and Trump Tax (tariffs) really bite into consumer pocketbooks.
I just paid 50% more for ground coffee than a few months ago because of Trump Tax.
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This could be a significant defensive advance.
https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/2025_systems_to_shield_kyiv_from_shaheds_new_air_defense_details_from_maxon_where_balloons_carry_interceptor_drones-15499.html
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It's difficult for me to comment on this. Yesterday we talked to a woman about this and she was very upset, she thought everything that was happening was very unfair. I think otherwise. Everything is fair.
Matthew 16:27 For the Son of Man is going to come in his Father’s glory with his angels, and then he will reward each person according to what they have done.
I believe that everyone gets what they deserve during their lifetime. If you smoke, you get lung cancer, if you don't study and work, you get poverty. As for expectations, it's even simpler. A lot of people expect something from others, but very rarely ask themselves on what basis they expect it? What did they do to get what they expected?
What Europe does for itself and its security is Europe's business, but we should be grateful for what it has done for Ukraine and Ukrainians. Someone decided that helping is the same as doing instead of you. But Ukraine as a state must realize that no one but it will solve its problems instead of it.
You can complain about Trump, but it seems the US got lucky with its first lady.
U.S. President Donald Trump's wife, Melania Trump, raised the plight of children in Ukraine and russia in a personal letter to russian President Vladimir putin, two White House officials said on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/world/melania-trump-sends-letter-putin-about-abducted-children-2025-08-16/
Anti-drone systems are currently being actively developed, but drones seem to be developing faster. All of these interceptors have shown effectiveness against slow, old models at low altitudes. Instead, russia is already switching to the use of high-flying jet drones, similar to cruise missiles that can only intercept large and expensive anti-aircraft systems. Only unlike cruise missiles, jet drones are many times cheaper and can be produced many times more.
I remain of the opinion that it is necessary to solve the cause of the problem, and not its consequences. I am inclined to associate the decrease in drone attacks in recent weeks not with anti-drone measures in Ukraine https://vechirniy.kyiv.ua/news/116075/ , but with successful attacks on their production and storage sites in russia. https://cripo.com.ua/news/war/drony-sbu-vrazyly-v-rosiyi-aerodrom-zberigannya-shahediv-v-prymorsko-ahtarsku-ta-vijskovyj-zavod-elektroprylad/
Western militaries should not depend on drones, given the problems that the Ukrainian armed forces are having with them, Rusi has said.
The think-tank report said that the war in Ukraine was dominated by the use of first-person view (FPV) drones in theatre and one-way attack (OWA) drones, helping conventional cruise and ballistic missiles for long-range strike campaigns.
Through the continued use of drones over traditional platforms like tanks and artillery, many senior figures in Western militaries, politicians, and journalists believe that previous military doctrines are outdated, Professor Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at Rusi, said.
https://www.forcesnews.com/ukraine/dont-rely-drones-win-future-battles-rusi-warns-uk-military
According to information published by the French Ministry of Armed Forces on August 11, 2025, the Directorate General of Armaments (DGA) awarded the PALADIN (Positioning and Autonomous Laser Assisted Detection in Near-space) framework agreement to French New Space company Infinite Orbits on August 8, 2025, for a maximum value of 50 million euros. The contract tasks Infinite Orbits with delivering a geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) inspection and surveillance service to the French Space Command (CDE) under the national Action and Resilience in Space (ARES) program. The PALADIN satellite, slated for launch in 2027, will build upon the company’s Orbit Guard platform and be supported by developments funded through the France 2030 investment plan coordinated by the National Center for Space Studies (CNES).
https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2025/france-seeks-to-safeguard-its-military-assets-across-space-orbits-with-paladin-satellite
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Yes life on earth is not fair. Fairness is a human (or perhaps divine) construct that we strive to have, not a law of existence.
I agree that in general a person gets from life what they put into it (pithily summed up as “there is no free lunch”). Some people have bad luck through no fault of their own, and in that case how they respond to help themselves will largely determine their fate, though often they receive some assistance from others. Ukraine is in both categories I think.
I’m happy that Melania wrote to Putin about the children and hope that it helps their plight. First Ladies can be more powerful forces for good than is often realized.
You are correct. Defensive drones, and any defensive system, are always more difficult and a step behind offensive developments. “The best defense is a good offense” still applies and probably always will. One reason that the Reagan era Star Wars defensive system was never fully developed or deployed is that it’s always relatively easy and much less expensive to overwhelm such a defense with large numbers of incoming weapons and decoys. Even today the few such systems that exist are limited in scope for the same reason or can only handle less sophisticated incoming weapons. Nevertheless, defensive developments are of course still vital.
Ukraine has made great strides in attacking military and logistical targets inside Russia. They desperately need to acquire or produce much more powerful long range weapons or they will not catch up. I hope that Europe can address this somehow as the US becomes more insular, but it’s already late.
There is a tendency in all militaries to overemphasize the newest technology and yet not understand the best way to make use of it until having more experience with it on the battlefield. This is balanced by a tendency to cling to the old technologies and practices much too long. I’m sure we can both think of many historical examples of both.
Two other technology and related logistical issues that have become painfully obvious are lack of good battlefield and strategic communications free of foreign control, and intelligence gathering and analysis particularly from orbit, also free of foreign control.
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Ukrainian photojournalist Yefrem Lukatsky, who works with the Associated Press, visited the production of the Ukrainian long-range cruise missile "Flamingo", capable of hitting targets at a distance of more than 3 thousand kilometers. He reported this on Facebook. According to the journalist, the missiles are manufactured by one of the leading defense companies of Ukraine - Fire Point. Production has allegedly already been launched into the serial phase. According to experts, in terms of appearance and technical characteristics, the Flamingo is very similar to the FP-5 from Milanion Group (UAE, IDEX-2025), which suggests that it may be the same or a very similar missile.
https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1755494050-ukrayinski-raketi-flamingo-na-3000-km-uzhe-u-virobnitstvi-z-yavilosya-foto
I have not heard anything about this journalist or the company and can neither confirm nor deny this information.
The air raid alert at night caused alarm, but it was quiet in Kyiv. Then it turned out that the strikes had hit Kharkiv and Sumy, where residential buildings were destroyed and people were killed. https://armyinform.com.ua/2025/08/18/u-harkovi-zbilshylas-kilkist-zagyblyh-naslidky-rankovogo-udaru/
You can only find out about the fact that large oil depots were hit twice by chance, for example, from a notice from a law firm that is going to file a lawsuit for compensation for the damage caused to the owner.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be joined by key European leaders when he meets with Donald Trump today. Trump has previewed the message he’ll deliver: Zelensky must agree to some of russia’s conditions — including that Ukraine cede Crimea and agree never to join NATO — for the war to end.
A delegation of European leaders, including France’s Emmanual Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, Britian’s Kier Starmer and the European Commission’s Ursula von der Leyen, will join Zelensky in Washington, DC, in a coordinated effort to support Kyiv and shape the future of Western support for Ukraine.
In yesterday’s meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” — Ukraine’s main European allies — leaders discussed the need to “stop the killing” in Ukraine, maintain pressure on russia through sanctions, and uphold the principle that Ukraine must make decisions on its own territory.
European leaders will be pushing for US President Donald Trump to join them in taking a hard line with russian President Vladimir putin on these issues.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-ukraine-zelensky-russia-putin-08-18-25?t=1755512076041
While Europe continues to show weakness, russia continues to press on the front. There is no doubt that in the event of a freeze in hostilities on the front line, it will try to use every day to advance westward.
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I hope that the Flamingo cruise missile is real and will be deployed soon. What rate they could be produced is another issue.
I wish I could say I was hopeful about the meeting of the Europeans and Zelensky with Trump. Clearly Trump has taken Russia’s side after his obsequious performance at the Alaska meeting. He tweeted what he thinks Zelensky should do to achieve peace - in summary, capitulate. So I doubt he will be moved to change his mind by the Europeans, who don’t seem to fascinate him as much as Putin does. But strange things can happen, perhaps he will find bromance with Starmer…
It wouldn’t surprise me if Trump will soon throttle US aid to Ukraine even more, and squeeze the Europeans to stop supplying arms to them. The ostensible reason will be that he is acting to end the war and save lives.
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He tweeted what he thinks Zelensky should do to achieve peace - in summary, capitulate.
The cessation of the war did not lead to the surrender of South Korea. What do you mean by capitulation in this case?
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The cessation of the war did not lead to the surrender of South Korea. What do you mean by capitulation in this case?
I didn’t mean surrender. I meant agree to Putin’s demands to cede all occupied lands to Russia, never join NATO, have a very small army, etc. as demanded by Putin.
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In the case of putin and russia, who have never fulfilled agreements, it doesn't matter what agreements you sign if you are not going to fulfill them either. The terms of the Versailles Treaty for Germany were even worse, but this did not stop it from developing and arming. In international relations, it is not the agreements that matter, but the force to enforce them. Relying on allies, one should not forget that they are driven by their own interests, and not by concern for you.
US President Donald Trump, his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, and seven European leaders sounded optimistic after their meeting on Monday at the White House, in which they worked toward ending russia’s war in Ukraine. Donald Trump said he was arranging a meeting between his Ukrainian and russian counterparts after the summit. He discussed the plan with russian President Vladimir putin in a call during his negotiations with the leaders.
Leaders at the summit discussed security guarantees for Ukraine, but not redrawing territory, though Volodymyr Zelensky said he had a discussion with Trump over a map of russian-captured territories in his country. Trump did not rule out sending US troops into Ukraine to help maintain a potential peace deal.
European leaders, including Zelensky, see a ceasefire as a necessary condition for negotiations to end the war, while Trump is more focused on securing a peace deal — a position the Kremlin has echoed. https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/trump-ukraine-russia-zelensky-putin-08-19-25
The Kremlin is concerned about US President Donald Trump's increasingly serious stance on offering Ukraine post-war defense commitments. The biggest breakthrough of the White House meeting was the American leader's statement that the US would join Ukraine's security guarantees, while previously Washington had assigned this role only to European countries, Politico reports. This gave Zelensky, arriving in the East Room of the White House to join the European leaders waiting for him, reason to call his face-to-face meeting with Trump "the best" to date. https://www.politico.eu/article/the-transatlantic-alliance-holds-as-trump-warms-to-security-guarantees-for-kyiv/
US and European officials started work on bolstering Ukraine’s military, part of a package of security guarantees that will open a path to a landmark meeting between presidents Vladimir putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.
The guarantees, which will be fleshed out by military and intelligence officials, are aimed at allowing Ukraine to boost troop numbers without limitations, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
The aim is to avoid russia demanding restrictions on the size of Kyiv’s military as part of a future agreement to end the war, wrote Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-19/us-and-europe-to-work-immediately-on-ukraine-security-guarantees?srnd=homepage-europe
The White House is considering holding a trilateral meeting involving the United States, Ukraine, and russia in the Hungarian capital of Budapest, Politico reports, citing sources in the administration of US President Donald Trump. A final decision has not yet been made, but Budapest is currently considered the main option. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/19/exclusive-white-house-eyes-budapest-for-peace-talks-with-zelenskyy-and-putin-00514596?3
After the White House agreed to prepare for a bilateral meeting between Vladimir putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, the Kremlin has lowered expectations. It is clear that the russian ruler is not ready for negotiations with the Ukrainian leader - neither now nor in the future, writes CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/20/world/why-putin-no-meet-zelensky-analysis-latam-intl
Of course, this makes no sense for putin - he does not recognize Zelensky's legitimacy, he is not at war with Ukraine, but with the West and is already directly meeting with Trump, and in the end, right now he has the advantage on the battlefield.
russia and Ukraine have continued to trade strikes as war talks gain momentum. On the night of August 19, 2025, the russian occupiers carried out a massive attack on the energy infrastructure of the Poltava region, using cruise missiles and attack drones. As a result of the strikes, large-scale fires broke out in the region. One of the production facilities of the gas transportation system of Ukraine was also damaged. https://weukraine.tv/novyny/voroh-atakuvav-enerhetichnu-infrastrukturu-poltavshchini-poshkodzheno-hazotransportnu-sistemu-minenerho/
Previously, oil storage facilities in the Odesa region were damaged, which could lead to a fuel shortage. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/rf-povtorno-vdarila-naftobazi-socar-bilya-1755511641.html
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Ukrainians who fled war are losing their legal status to stay in the U.S., The Wall Street Journal reports. An estimated 120,000 Ukrainians who have fled to the United States in the past two years will begin to lose their humanitarian protections. They came to the country under the United for Ukraine (U4U) program, a temporary legal program created by the 46th President of the United States, Joe Biden. The Ukrainians who arrived were granted a two-year renewable status, known as humanitarian parole, on the condition that they find a private American sponsor to accept them into the country. After taking office, Trump closed the U4U program and stopped issuing extensions to people whose work permits were expiring. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/ukrainians-who-fled-war-are-losing-their-legal-status-to-stay-in-the-u-s-507413af?mod=hp_lead_pos9
Eastern Ukraine is suffering from missile and drone attacks, and money is being distributed in Kyiv. Today, the parliament made changes to the state budget for 2025 and, in particular, deprived Kyiv of UAH 8 billion in revenues in favor of the state railway carrier Ukrzaliznytsia.
Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said that in this way they are suppressing local self-government and taking away vital funds that were earmarked in the capital’s budget, in particular, for payments to teachers and doctors; for repairs to schools, kindergartens and hospitals; for ensuring the lowest fares in the country for public transport. And also for supporting the Armed Forces, rehabilitation of servicemen, payments to veterans and their family members. https://bigkyiv.com.ua/zi-stolychnogo-byudzhetu-vyluchat-8-milyardiv-gryven-klychko-nazvav-cze-tyskom-na-kyyiv/
The entire budget of Kyiv in 2025 is approximately UAH 90 billion.
By the end of 2025, 2,000 security officers are to be employed in Ukrainian schools. By 2026, the number is planned to increase to 3,000, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said at the presentation of the new government’s program on August 18. https://news.novyny.live/u-shkolakh-zbilshat-kilkist-ofitseriv-bezpeki-detali-vid-mvs-275527.html
Since I had not heard anything about violence in schools even long before the introduction of this security measures, I was reminded of an old joke about a boy who guarded a swimming pool from crocodiles. To the remark that there were never crocodiles in the pool, he proudly replied that this was an obvious result of his efforts.
And let’s remember that police officers are exempt from military service. But not everyone is so lucky.
In Kyiv, a mobilized person tried to cut himself in a mobilization center and was hospitalized. https://enovosty.com/uk/news-ukr/news_kiev-ukr/full/u-kiyevi-mobilizovanij-namagavsya-porizati-sebe-v-tck-jogo-gospitalizuvali
In Volyn, women started throwing stones when the military detained a man with a disability, at which point the mobilization center employees allegedly started shooting and a bullet hit one of the women in the cheek, one of the local residents told journalists from the Avers television company. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/na-volini-zakidali-kaminnyam-pratsivnikiv-ttsk-viyskoviy-vidkriv-vogon-i-potsiliv-odniy-iz-zhinok-v-shchoku
Of course, all of this is completely wrong, but I don't understand why all of this is happening not in authoritarian russia, but in democratic Ukraine. I wonder if we will see raids and breaking into homes at night, as was the case during Stalin's repressions in the 1930s.
It's hard to imagine the anxiety of men in Ukraine and the impact it has on their psyche. I've heard the analogy that anyone can imagine that they've just robbed a bank with murder and are wanted, and the police are looking for them. How would you feel in that situation?
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At night russia has launched 574 drones and 40 missiles on Ukraine in one of the heaviest bombardments in weeks, Ukrainian officials say. One person was killed in a drone and missile strike on the western city of Lviv, while 15 others were reported wounded in an attack on the south-western Transcarpathia region. I heard air defenses and explosions, but it seems Kyiv was not the main target of the attack. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62wj8yje2eo
https://uatv.ua/uk/take-vrazhennya-shho-tse-neskinchenno-meshkantsi-lvova-rozpovily-pro-naslidky-rosijskoyi-ataky-video/
In Transcarpathia, in Mukachevo, russian invaders struck the production facilities of an American company specializing in electronics. https://rubryka.com/2025/08/21/udar-rf-po-mukachevu-dsns-vdalosya-lokalizuvaty-masshtabnu-pozhezhu-kilkist-postrazhdalyh-zrosla-do-19/
A number of trains were delayed due to the massive shelling. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/339050-iz-za-massirovannogo-obstrela-ukrainy-zaderzhivaetsya-ryad-poezdov
I think the attacks will only intensify in the coming days, since August 24 is Independence Day.
People say that as a result of this strike, the places where the recently developed Flamingo missiles are produced, which journalists visited, were hit. I can neither confirm nor deny this, but the fact that populism and vanity always prevail over common sense in the government is undeniable. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c9qydy9y9p1o?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
Ukraine's strikes on oil refineries have disabled some of the capacity in russia. The market has faced an acute shortage of gasoline. This is reported by the Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/1a22515d-f0e2-4f11-8e1f-6d7b9d30ef13
Wholesale prices for gasoline in russia have reached record levels. A ton of A-95 gasoline on the exchange on August 20 cost 55% more than at the beginning of the year, and 8% more than at the beginning of August. The market is experiencing fuel shortages in a number of regions due to strikes by Ukrainian drones on oil refineries.
Since the beginning of July, Ukraine has hit at least four large refineries in russia. According to experts, the current campaign is different from previous ones - strikes are aimed at enterprises in a key region, which could disable them for a long time or "even forever."
Trump steps back from russia and Ukraine peace talks for now, sources say. Donald Trump intends to leave russia and Ukraine to organize a meeting between their leaders without directly playing a role for now, according to administration officials familiar with the situation, taking a step back from the negotiations to end russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The next stage in Trump’s eyes to end the war in Ukraine remains a bilateral meeting between Vladimir putin, the russian president, and Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, the officials said. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/21/trump-ukraine-russia-peace-talks
Efforts to establish security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a US-led push to end russia’s war are running into difficulties almost immediately. US, Ukrainian and European officials have started hashing out proposals for a post-war plan to protect Ukraine, after White House officials said russian President Vladimir putin was open to “Article 5-style” security guarantees for Kyiv, a reference to NATO’s collective defense commitment.
The Kremlin hasn’t confirmed publicly that putin made such a commitment at his summit with US President Donald Trump in Alaska last week. russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday that russia should have a say in security arrangements for Ukraine, which could also involve China. Hours later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ruled out Beijing as a potential guarantor of peace. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/doubts-grow-on-ukraine-security-package-as-russia-demands-a-role?embedded-checkout=true
The United States does not plan to take full responsibility for resolving russia's war against Ukraine, but expects an active role from European countries, US Vice President J.D. Vance said. Vance said on Fox News that the US president also expects Europe to play a leading role in this issue. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0yJFK_KVNc
US special envoy Steve Witkoff delivered a russian medal to the grieving family of an American who was killed fighting for russia in 2024, a senior administration official told CNN.
Earlier this month, when russian president Vladimir putin gave the medal – the Order of Courage – to Witkoff, some observers saw it as something of a diplomatic dig, given that the American who was killed, Michael Gloss, 21, was the son of a senior CIA official. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/20/politics/witkoff-delivered-medal-from-putin-family-american-killed
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“White House officials said russian President Vladimir putin was open to “Article 5-style” security guarantees for Kyiv, a reference to NATO’s collective defense commitment.”
I read the transcript of the Steve Witkoff interview on CNN “State of the Union” in which he discusses this. https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2025-08-17/segment/01
His statements are vague and what they really mean isn’t clear. Unfortunately the interviewer didn’t press him. Putin will not agree to Ukraine protection under NATO article 5, so I fail to see why he would he agree to something similar. It seems to be just another negotiation tactic that will be disavowed later.
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“White House officials said russian President Vladimir putin was open to “Article 5-style” security guarantees for Kyiv, a reference to NATO’s collective defense commitment.”
I read the transcript of the Steve Witkoff interview on CNN “State of the Union” in which he discusses this. https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2025-08-17/segment/01
His statements are vague and what they really mean isn’t clear. Unfortunately the interviewer didn’t press him. Putin will not agree to Ukraine protection under NATO article 5, so I fail to see why he would he agree to something similar. It seems to be just another negotiation tactic that will be disavowed later.
Maybe they want to become a member of NATO and destroy it from within like they already did with the UN? I'm not surprised by anything anymore...
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Hmmm, yes, like an article 5 arrangement but with Russia as one of the parties supposedly guaranteeing the defense of Ukraine. With veto power, of course.
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The heat is over and the rains have started. With them comes depression. It's hard to hold on in the face of uncertainty and the constant deterioration of the situation. I can't imagine how the people in Gaza are coping...
This morning, during the second airstrike in Kyiv, at least one drone was shot down, which fell onto the road without causing damage. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/08/23/novyna/suspilstvo/odnomu-rajoniv-kyyeva-dorohu-vpav-vorozhyj-dron
As a result of the night attack by russian drones, hits were recorded in the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy regions. https://unn.ua/news/nichna-ataka-rf-dronamy-shcho-vidomo-pro-naslidky
On the night of August 23, 2025, during an approach for landing after completing a combat mission, the pilot of a MiG-29 fighter, Major Serhiy Bondar, born in 1979, died. https://mind.ua/news/20293638-na-mikolayivshchini-zaginuv-ukrayinskij-pilot-mig-29-pislya-vikonannya-bojovogo-zavdannya
Beijing is considering the possibility of its military participating in a peacekeeping force for Ukraine. According to WELT, citing EU diplomats, China is ready for this only on condition that the mission has a UN mandate.
In Brussels, such a proposal has caused a controversial reaction. Some diplomats believe that the involvement of China and other countries of the Global South could increase the legitimacy of the idea of a peacekeeping mission. Others express concerns that Beijing could use its presence in Ukraine for espionage and take an openly pro-russian position.
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article68a86c7c5d3e123a945a7bf1/friedenssicherung-china-zeigt-sich-bereit-truppen-in-die-ukraine-zu-schicken.html
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To understand the overall situation in Ukraine, you have to spend a lot of time searching for information in various sources and putting it together into a puzzle.
The Ukrainian government is preparing for one of the most challenging budget cycles in recent years: in 2026, the country will need from $8 billion to $19 billion in additional funding, depending on the development of the security situation. This gap in forecasts indicates deep uncertainty caused by the long war, high defense spending and instability of foreign aid.
According to Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko, the budget for next year is being formed with the assumption that hostilities will continue. This means that spending on the army, social support and critical infrastructure will remain at record levels. Despite the government’s efforts to optimize spending, the deficit remains significant - about $10 billion has not yet been confirmed as a source of coverage.
The key donors remain the G7 countries, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
https://fbc.biz.ua/news/ekonomika-uk/ukrayina-gotuye-byudzhet-2026-defitsit-42-mlrd-poshuk-finansuvannya-trivaye-na-tli-vijni/
In the first six months of 2025, the European Union transferred 10.1 billion euros to Ukraine, obtained from the proceeds of the frozen assets of the Central Bank of russia, the Welt am Sonntag newspaper reported on Saturday, August 23, citing data from the European Commission.
https://www.dw.com/uk/es-u-2025-vze-peredav-ukraini-ponad-10-mlrd-evro-z-dohodiv-vid-zamorozenih-aktiviv-rf/a-73740119?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
Inside the country, the main method of state action remains coercion. In my dreams, Ukraine should develop like South Korea, but in reality it is becoming more and more like North Korea. The war has become a very convenient excuse for the authorities to introduce dictatorship and totalitarianism. This may indeed serve the development of the country, but is this the direction that Ukrainians sought for their country, fighting for their freedom for centuries? Is Ukraine's freedom worth the price of Ukrainians' lack of freedom?
The prominent Soviet writer of Ukrainian origin, Vasily Grossman, wrote about the historical development of russia through lack of freedom, contrasting it with Western development based on freedom: The evolution of the West was fertilized by the growth of freedom; russia’s evolution was fertilized by the growth of slavery. This is the abyss that divides russia and the West. The history of humanity is the history of human freedom. The growth of human potentiality is expressed, above all, in the growth of freedom. Freedom is not, as Engels claimed, “the recognition of necessity.”
Freedom is the direct opposite of necessity; freedom is necessity overcome. Progress, in essence, is the progress of human freedom. What is life itself, if not freedom? The evolution of life is the evolution of freedom. russia has always evolved in a peculiar way; what has evolved has been the degree of non-freedom. Year by year serfdom grew harsher and the peasants’ right to their land more tenuous. Meanwhile, russian science, technology, and learning continued to advance, merging with the growth of slavery.
The most important principle of the State Stalin constructed is that it is a State without freedom. In this country, huge factories, artificial seas, canals, and hydroelectric power stations do not serve people; they serve a State without freedom. In this State a man cannot sow what he wants to sow. A man is not the master of the field on which he works; he is not the owner of the apple trees he grows or of the milk he produces. Whatever the earth bears, it bears according to the instructions of the State without freedom. In this State not only are the national minorities deprived of their freedom but so is the russian nation itself. Where there is no individual freedom, there can be no national freedom—since national freedom is, above all, the freedom of the individual human being. In this State there is no such thing as society. Society is founded on people’s free intimacy and free antagonism—and in a State without freedom, free intimacy and free hostility are unthinkable. (c) Everything Flows by Vasily Grossman
https://oceanofpdf.com/authors/vasily-grossman/pdf-epub-everything-flows-by-vasily-grossman-download/
Since a large part of Ukrainians became de facto slaves, the attitude towards them both in their own country and abroad will only worsen.
The Cabinet of Ministers proposes to conduct criminal prosecution and impose penalties in absentia on conscripts and reservists who are abroad beyond the permitted period. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/339160-zaochnye-shtrafy-do-170-tysyach-grn-byudzhet-mozhet-znachitelno-popolnitsya-za-schet-prizyvnikov-i-voennoobyazannykh-za-granitsey
But Ukrainians are not the only ones in the world. While many people have the freedom to travel, citizens in some countries face strict restrictions on leaving their homeland. In certain nations, government policies, political concerns, or strict social rules limit the freedom to travel abroad. According to the 2023 Human Rights Watch report and the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), these restrictions are particularly tight in the following countries.
1. North Korea
North Korea is considered the most restrictive country in the world in terms of travel freedom. Citizens are rarely, if ever, allowed to travel abroad without government approval. Strict controls over movement prevent citizens from leaving or interacting with other countries.
2. Eritrea
Eritrea, located in East Africa, has also been called an open-air prison due to its severe restrictions on movement. Many Eritreans have been conscripted into indefinite military service, which further limits their freedom to leave the country.
3. Syria
Due to the ongoing civil conflict, Syrian citizens face severe restrictions on movement. Many Syrians who attempt to flee face legal and logistical barriers, and those suspected of leaving for political reasons may face repercussions if they return.
4. Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan is one of the most isolated countries in Central Asia, and the government imposes strict rules on travel. Only a small number of people are granted permission to travel abroad, and many are monitored even after leaving.
5. Cuba
While Cuba has recently lifted many restrictions, its citizens still face barriers when trying to leave. Those who want to travel abroad need government approval, and many face long wait times or denials, especially if they are considered politically sensitive.
https://tribuneonlineng.com/japa-5-countries-where-citizens-arent-allowed-to-leave/
The paradox is that even from the territories occupied by russia, everyone can freely leave if they do not want to stay there, which cannot be said about Ukraine.
More than £300m given to English councils to help Ukrainian refugees into accommodation has not been spent, while thousands of them face homelessness. Freedom of information requests to 150 councils in England, shared with the Guardian, identified that £327m – about a third of the £1bn budget – was still sitting in council bank accounts more than three years after russia invaded Ukraine. Most of the funds councils have spent have been used to pay staff and partner organisations. Only £22m has been spent on temporary accommodation for Ukrainians and £15m to help them into private rented accommodation.
Many Ukrainians struggle to find accommodation in the private rented sector because of the need to provide a deposit, something councils can help with but which some Ukrainians say in practice can be slow, bureaucratic and difficult to access. Finding a UK guarantor can also be difficult and those unable to speak English struggle to negotiate with landlords.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/18/over-300m-given-to-english-councils-to-help-house-ukrainian-refugees-unspent
First Lady Olena Zelenska, citing the data of the study “Index of the Future: Professional Expectations and Development of Adolescents in Ukraine”, stated that 82% of Ukrainian adolescents retain an optimistic vision of their future. The wife of the President of Ukraine said this during a speech at the annual educational conference “August”, which is held by the Ministry of Education.
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/4027982-zelenska-82-ukrainskih-pidlitkiv-zberigaut-obnadijlive-bacenna-svogo-majbutnogo.html
Sounds optimistic, but how true is it?
Only 48 state higher education institutions accepted more than a thousand applicants, said former Deputy Minister of Education and Science Mykhailo Vynnytsky.
https://lb.ua/society/2025/08/20/692187_pevnoi_miti_stalo_zrozumilo_shcho_mi.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawMSvaZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHtxzf44TtSfUvhSAWu3z0NCCTfu3cixU7DqeftFFBPI3u1x0xRP1QCQnWqg0_aem_ns_hjxekJKkYd6G1ue33cw
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Today is Independence Day, but I didn’t notice many people celebrating. Apparently this holiday causes more excitement abroad than in Ukraine itself, which despite everything continues to exist.
Despite expectations, there were no mass attacks with missiles and drones either at night or during the day. But there is information about the preparation of russian strategic aviation and drone stocks. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/22/world/russia-drone-attacks-ukraine-war-intl-vis
The Pentagon has for months been blocking Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike inside russia, U.S. officials said, limiting Kyiv from employing a powerful weapon in its fight against Moscow’s invasion. This applies to ATACMS missiles, as well as the British-French Storm Shadow cruise missiles, reports the Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-has-quietly-blocked-ukraines-long-range-missile-strikes-on-russia-432a12e1?mod=hp_lead_pos1
But this does not apply to all other weapons that have recently caused significant damage to russia. Ukraine is focusing drone attacks on refineries, pumping stations and fuel trains in an effort to hurt the russian war machine - but also to disrupt daily life in russia. Summer sees peak demand among russia’s drivers and farmers for petrol. Ukrainian drones have struck at least ten key russian energy facilities this month alone, according to a CNN tally of attacks. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/23/europe/ukraine-russia-energy-attacks-intl
Ukrainian drones have attacked a Novatek gas processing plant in russia's Leningrad region, damaging a key part of one of Europe's largest gas complexes, through which Moscow exports oil and gas. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ce3j7l58en7o
The new strike destroyed the Unecha pumping station near Bryansk and stopped the Druzhba oil pipeline. Unecha is key to transporting russian oil to the port of Ust-Luga, which accounts for a significant portion of russian oil exports and pumping oil to Slovakia and Hungary. https://charter97.org/ru/news/2025/8/24/653234/
Ukrainian attack drones hit two important facilities of the russian regime on the night of August 24. As the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported, the sea terminal of the port of Ust-Luga - russia's key logistics hub on the Baltic - and an oil refinery in Syzran, which works to support the war, were "hit." Also "hit" were logistics and combat supply facilities of the russian army in Voronezh and Belgorod regions. https://charter97.org/en/news/2025/8/24/653219/
The PR for the mysterious Flamingo missile, developed by Ukraine's Fire Point defense company, reached the pages of Politico. According to Iryna Terekh, the company's CEO and technical director, it took less than nine months to develop it from an idea to its first successful tests on the battlefield. It is completely Ukrainian-made. https://www.politico.eu/article/flamingo-ukraine-3000km-cruise-missile-woman-vladimir-putin-donald-trump-volodymyr-zelenskyy-drone/
This sounds too good to be true, but who knows. Anyway, even if it's some other missile that was simply painted pink in Ukraine, the main thing is that it hits the enemy.
During a visit to Kyiv, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that next month Ukraine will receive weapons purchased with funds allocated by Canada at the G7 summit in June. This is $2 billion Canadian dollars.
Of this amount, $1 billion will go to strengthen the Ukrainian army through the supply of drones, ammunition and armored vehicles, which will arrive in September. The rest of the funds will be directed to emergency medical care, the construction of bomb shelters and protection against cyberattacks. Tens of millions of dollars have been allocated for these purposes. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/339311-kanada-postavit-ukraine-vooruzhenie-na-2-mlrd-v-sleduyuschem-mesyatse
France summoned the Italian ambassador after Italy's deputy prime minister challenged the French president for suggesting that European soldiers be deployed in Ukraine in a post-war settlement, a French diplomatic source said on Saturday. Asked earlier this week to comment on French President Emmanuel Macron's appeals to deploy European soldiers in Ukraine after any settlement with russia, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini used a Milanese dialect phrase loosely translatable as "get lost". "You go there if you want. Put your helmet on, your jacket, your rifle and you go to Ukraine," he told reporters, referring to Macron. https://www.reuters.com/world/france-summons-italian-ambassador-over-challenge-macron-ukraine-2025-08-23/
A farmer who failed to ensure the mobilization process for his workers was fined. https://novyny.live/tck-uk/na-khmelnichchini-sudili-fermera-bo-iogo-pratsivniki-ne-pishli-v-ttsk-276282.html Due to the threat of conscription, Ukrainians often quit their jobs and continue to work unofficially if possible, or not at all.
The parliament registered a resolution that provides for changes in the administrative and territorial structure of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by joining their unoccupied parts to neighboring regions. https://www.unian.ua/politics/adminkordoni-doneckoji-oblasti-u-radi-proponuyut-zminiti-kordoni-donbasu-13105119.html
https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/57131
Perhaps in this strange way, putin's demand to transfer the specified regions to russia in full will be satisfied.
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Today is still warm, but you can already feel the mood and weather of autumn. Clouds and wind, colorful leaves on the trees. The propagation opens and today I made a couple of wonderful QSO with Northern Ireland and Scotland on 21MHz.
Fortunately, the short air alarms did not end with a strike on Kyiv. Perhaps thanks to the fact that Keith Kellogg visited Kyiv. Perhaps it is cheaper to offer him to live in Kyiv permanently than to spend money on Patriot anti-missile complexes. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/339390-kit-kellog-nazval-peregovornyy-protsess-po-garantiyam-bezopasnosti-dlya-ukrainy-slozhnym
In fact, his visit reveals the intensity of the negotiations and gives hope that the war will soon end.
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The Trump administration limiting use of ATACMS inside Russia is a terrible decision, though apparently for different reasons than the Biden administration. The latter was worried about nuclear war, which was a reasonable precaution in the early days. But they finally relented (too late IMO) after it became obvious that Putin was bluffing.
Trump continues to try enticements to sway Putin as if he is a real estate business tycoon negotiating for a choice building site. But this is a complete misunderstanding of the man, his reasons for invading, and his reasons for continuing no matter the staggering losses of Russian men.
Well, it serves to underscore your point, Wlad, that Ukraine must rely much more on itself such as the effective drone strikes and the long range missiles being developed.
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I believe that first of all, it is not only putin who is fighting, but the russians. If he did not meet their expectations, then how could he have stayed in power for so many years? He is also trying to act as rationally as possible in achieving his ambitious goal - to go down in history as a strong leader who dedicated his life to the restoration of the russian Empire. At least if we look at how he organized mobilization, it was done very skillfully and effectively. russians are not only not caught on the streets and forced to join the army, but they go to fight voluntarily. russia's borders are open and its economy is not collapsing due to a shortage of workers. Moreover, thanks to the war in russia, a layer of society has appeared that is interested in continuing the war against Ukraine.
The Telegraph conducted a study of changes in russia during the war and came to the conclusion that it significantly affected the socio-economic structure of the country. In industrial regions, workers receive high salaries and bonuses at enterprises producing military products, while the families of military contractors receive significant social benefits.
A new middle class is emerging from the formerly poor, depressed regions of russia, where many russians previously had no stable jobs. Military contracts, higher salaries, and social benefits create economic benefits that some russians seek to maintain, even if it means continuing the war. The military economy stimulates domestic consumption in remote and poor regions of russia. Demand for services, hotels, and restaurants increases, while the population spends more on education, sports, and household needs.
After the war ends and the military is demobilized, the new middle class may quickly lose its financial benefits and social privileges, potentially leading to social instability in the country. And this is an important factor that encourages russia to continue the war.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/24/russias-new-middle-class-cant-afford-for-putins-war-to-end/?utm_campaign=feed&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=later-linkinbio
All those who continue to underestimate the russians should pay attention to the fact that, for example, they recently produced their fifth nuclear submarine, capable of carrying supersonic missiles. https://gazeta.ua/articles/world-life/_rosiya-vivela-na-viprobuvannya-pershu-atomnu-submarinu-i-zastosuvala-z-novimi-giperzvukovimi--raketami/1228154
They also continue to produce modern fifth-generation aircraft, albeit in small quantities, but independently. While the West continues to admire the brave Ukrainians who are forced to shoot down drones using light training prop planes with shotguns and rifles. https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-russia-drone-hunting-e2fea5fc
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I have a feeling that many serious processes are taking place secretly and that we can only learn about indirectly. For example, about the preparations for the elections in Ukraine. But it seems that Ukrainians will once again be offered only the illusion of choice. At least they are already beginning to be led to believe through publications in reputable Western publications that Zaluzhny should be a worthy next president of Ukraine. One such article was recently published in The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2025/aug/25/general-envoy-future-ukraine-president-valerii-zaluzhnyi-london-waiting-game
It is difficult to say what will change in Ukraine due to the replacement of one player with another from the same team, but at least the issue of the legitimacy of the president will be resolved and Ukraine will be protected from political upheavals at such a dangerous time. On the other hand, there will be no hope for changes in state policy and the situation inside the country. But I do not rule out the strengthening of authoritarianism and the emergence of a hybrid of corrupt officials and military dictatorship. Yermak proposes to reform the Office of the President and involve more military personnel and veterans in the work. https://hromadske.radio/news/2025/08/22/yermak-proponuie-reformuvaty-ofis-prezydenta-y-zaluchyty-do-roboty-bilshe-viyskovykh-i-veteraniv
The state of war can continue indefinitely, since Europe promises to continue financing Ukraine. Germany will provide Ukraine with EUR9 billion annually in the coming years, said the country's Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor of the German government, Lars Klingbeil. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1099062.html
Ukraine's access to Elon Musk's satellite internet service Starlink could be cut due to the Polish president's veto of a refugee aid bill, a Polish deputy prime minister said on Monday, as a conflict between the government and head of state deepens. Poland pays for Ukraine to use Starlink, which provides crucial internet connectivity to the country and its military as they try to push back invading russian forces. Polish President Karol Nawrocki on Monday vetoed a bill extending state financial support provided to Ukrainian refugees and unveiled plans to limit their future access to child benefits and healthcare. https://tvpworld.com/88525661/president-nawrockis-veto-means-poland-cant-pay-for-ukraines-starlink-access-from-october-official
russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov believes that Ukraine "has the right to exist" if it gives up its territories on which the russian Federation has held pseudo-referendums. The Kremlin will not accept President Volodymyr Zelensky's signature on legal documents establishing terms for an end to russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with NBC News released on Aug. 24. Lavrov said the Kremlin views Zelensky as the "de facto head of the regime" but not a legitimate leader of Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPggR7sHsBo
The fact that the russians have once again become welcome guests of the leading media in the States is sad. The tactic of using selective truth makes russian propaganda extremely convincing and effective. Unfortunately, nothing is heard in the opposite direction. Which of the Western leaders is broadcast in the same way by the media in russia or China?
Vladimir putin is being held up by Donald Trump’s administration as a reasonable wartime leader who is ready for peace. In a wide-ranging interview, JD Vance, the US vice-president, cited a number of “concessions” that he claimed showed the Kremlin was serious about ending its invasion of Ukraine. putin’s apparent compromises, Mr Vance said, had not been offered by Moscow in the last three-and-a-half years of fighting, and were only made possible by Mr Trump. However, these concessions, as envisaged by Mr Vance, are more of a mirage to hoodwink the White House than a genuine compromise, wrote The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/25/jd-vance-russia-ukraine-concessions-peace-usa-trump/
Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on russian oil refineries and exporting infrastructure, striking the most important sector of President Vladimir putin's economy to show it can fight back as the United States seeks to broker a peace deal. Ukrainian attacks on 10 plants disrupted at least 17% of russia's refinery capacity, or 1.1 million barrels per day, according to Reuters calculations. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-refineries-terminals-burn-ukraine-hits-putins-war-economy-2025-08-25/
In the Rivne region, another conscript died at a collection point for sending to a military training center. The mobilization center refers to the results of investigative and operational measures and notes that the man's death occurred due to heart failure. But they did not say anything about how the sick man was recognized as fit for military service and whether anyone will be punished for a knowingly false medical report. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/339388-v-rovenskoy-oblasti-v-punkte-sbora-vnezapno-umer-voennoobyazannyy-vitaliy-sakharuk-v-ttsk-otreagirovali
Meanwhile, Ukraine is slowly closed by an iron curtain. On the western border, barriers with deep ditches and barbed wire continue to be built. When will mines and machine guns appear there, who will shoot in the back those who want to escape from Ukraine? Is it even possible to call a normal country from which people are trying to escape?
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Putin certainly has been skillful. But the West has allowed the Russian economy to function because of sanctions that were substantially bypassed without significant consequence. Sanctions can always be bypassed in some way, but a tight, leaky sieve is considerably better than one with gaping holes.
The West is always concerned with setting a precedent that could haunt them later, which is one reason why Russian assets in the west haven’t been seized, nor shadow oil tankers seized. Sooner or later it comes down to money.
Wlad, how do you read paywalled articles from so many sources?
How I wish to know what sweet things have been whispered by Putin to Dear Leader Trump! Regardless, Vance surely knows better than the baby formula that he regurgitates about peace negotiations.
Where on the western border have the fortifications been built, or are being built?
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Wlad, how do you read paywalled articles from so many sources?
In fact, I read their translations into Ukrainian or Polish on several local sites. Some sites translate the articles in full. Some, like the BBC, quote large fragments. I always give a link to the original article.
Where on the western border have the fortifications been built, or are being built?
Large fortifications are being built on the border with Belarus and Transnistria, explaining the threat of an attack from there. It is clear that this works both ways. Previously, people fled to Belarus because the border runs through forests, but now people are mainly fleeing from Ukraine through the mountains to Romania. There is less population there, unlike the border with Slovakia. Where the border runs along flat land, there is enough barbed wire and drone surveillance, but in some areas they have already started digging ditches. Also, 50 km from the border, checkpoints have been set up on the roads and you have to walk for several days to get to the border alone, which requires serious preparation. There have also been more frequent cases when border guards started shooting at fugitives, so it is becoming increasingly difficult to escape from Ukraine.
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Today is a sunny morning, I am alive and unharmed, I have electricity and water, and even the smell of smoke from the street and my poor health cannot spoil my mood. This night there was another massive attack on Kyiv from hundreds of drones and a dozen missiles. There were many hits, the exact addresses of which can be found in the municipality's reports about blocked roads. I looked out the window at the burning local railway depot, where a train was hit. The walls shook from some of the explosions, and I could not identify some of the sounds at all. Maybe they were missiles, maybe new jet drones. Many residential buildings in the capital were destroyed or damaged, in one of which an entire entrance was blown away. Drones also attacked other regions, mainly western ones, almost all night.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cpqv0e8v71jo
https://expres.online/podrobitsi/ataka-na-kiiv-moment-podviynogo-vluchannya-potrapiv-na-video
https://uatv.ua/uk/majzhe-600-bpla-balistychni-krylati-ta-aerobalistychni-rakety-zapustyla-rosiya-po-ukrayini-detali-vidbyttya-ataky/
https://texty.org.ua/fragments/115769/rosiya-masovano-atakuvala-kyyiv-s-zahybli-vshent-zrujnovano-pidyizd-5-poverhivky-foto-video/
Instead, Ukrainian drones struck the Kuibyshev and Afip refineries in russia's Samara region and Krasnodar Krai on the night of Thursday, August 28. The russian oil refining industry lost another 4.7% of its capacity that night, and a total of 21% in two weeks. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/4030281-sili-oboroni-vnoci-urazili-kujbisevskij-ta-afipskij-npz-u-rosii.html
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After a night of intense bombardment by russia, Ukrainian search and rescue teams are still picking through the rubble. It was russia's deadliest onslaught on Kyiv since July, leaving at least 19 dead, including four children. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/czd0z0grm9lt
I would like to know what goal russia pursues by spending hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles on strikes on Kyiv, but by doing so it only draws attention to its terrorist nature. No matter how cynical it may sound, destruction and victims outside Kyiv have become commonplace and remain almost unnoticed outside the regions. Instead, broken windows in the offices of international companies or damaged embassy buildings in the capital, as well as photos of respectable people against the backdrop of the consequences of strikes, immediately appear on the front pages of world media and cause a wave of posts on social networks.
The war also continues at sea, where ships are becoming victims of naval drones. russians hit Ukrainian medium reconnaissance ship "Simferopol"
https://24tv.ua/rosiyani-urazili-korabel-vms-zsu-odin-chlen-ekipazhu-zaginuv_n2903158
Ukrainians hit a russian missile ship, a carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles, in the Sea of Azov - not far from the temporarily occupied Crimea. https://uatv.ua/uk/ukrayinski-rozvidnyky-vrazyly-nosij-kalibriv-v-azovskomu-mori-detali/
russia is trying to disrupt Ukraine's preparations for winter by carrying out attacks on energy and gas infrastructure facilities in various regions. On the night of August 26-27, the enemy carried out targeted strikes with unmanned aerial vehicles, damaging equipment at substations, the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine reports. https://mev.gov.ua/novyna/rosiyany-atakuvaly-obyekty-enerhetychnoyi-ta-hazotransportnoyi-infrastruktury-v-shesty
In the Ryazan region of russia on Wednesday, August 27, explosions caused the Ryazan-Moscow main oil pipeline to fail, a source in the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense (GUR MO) of Ukraine told DW. The transportation of petroleum products to Moscow has been suspended indefinitely. https://www.dw.com/uk/u-rf-pisla-vibuhiv-vijsov-z-ladu-naftoprovid-razanmoskva-dzerelo-v-gur/a-73780825?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
The Ukrainian military has confirmed that russian forces have crossed the border into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, an important industrial region in eastern Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cx29jqqr21eo?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
From Kyiv to the Suwałki Gap, bogs return as Europe’s defensive shield. European countries are considering restoring bogs as a natural barrier against russian armored vehicles, particularly in Finland and Poland, writes Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-defense-kyiv-ukraine-nato-eu-bogs-poland-war-germany/
Rheinmetall AG opened what will be Europe’s biggest ammunition factory after a slight delay as discussions about security guarantees for Ukraine gather steam and Germany sets out to massively expand its military, writes Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-27/rheinmetall-opens-europe-s-largest-artillery-ammunition-factory?taid=68aeb4a52564470001bdda6e&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
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I Am relieved that you were not directly affected by the attacks on Kyiv.
My guess as to why there is more press coverage of Kyiv attacks and casualties is that probably most Western reporters are stationed there.
Congratulations to the UA forces for their effective attacks on Russian petroleum infrastructure. Besides being vital to the Russian military and economy, they conveniently supply their own incendiary material! In addition it may make an impression on those Russians for whom the war seems far away and without much consequence to them. Alas, being steeped in propaganda, they will likely draw the wrong inference.
I think that Brady will be happy that the Rheinmetall ammo factory is open. I hope his stock investment does very well.
Bogs as military barriers. Well, everything old is new again.
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Congratulations to the UA forces for their effective attacks on Russian petroleum infrastructure. Besides being vital to the Russian military and economy, they conveniently supply their own incendiary material! In addition it may make an impression on those Russians for whom the war seems far away and without much consequence to them. Alas, being steeped in propaganda, they will likely draw the wrong inference.
Let me remind you aa old joke in russia: A boy asks his dad: "father, now they have put up the price of vodka, does it mean you will drink less?" He replies: "no, my child, it means you will eat less."
Sure, the russians blame this on the Ukrainians who are attacking the oil refineries, not on their government, whose actions led to this.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree appointing Olga Stefanyshyna, former Minister of Justice of Ukraine, as Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States of America. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/zelenskiy-priznachiv-stefanishinu-novim-poslom-ukrajini-v-ssha-50540429.html
The profile committee of the Verkhovna Rada supported the draft law, which proposes to punish servicemen for disobeying a senior commander with imprisonment for a term of 5 to 10 years. In fact, this also means a ban on courts, when passing sentences, to impose a milder punishment on military personnel than is provided for by law and to release them from serving sentences with probation. The Military Ombudsman and the military themselves condemn such an initiative. They believe that this will not lead to improved discipline, but that the changes are aimed at instilling an atmosphere of fear, suppressing any dissent, and unleashing terror against the undesirable and inconvenient. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/339676-voennyy-ombudsmen-prizvala-zakonodateley-ne-prevraschat-sudey-v-statistov-zapreschaya-im-naznachat-bolee-myagkoe-nakazanie-voennosluzhaschim-za-nepodchinenie
https://censor.net/ua/b3570897
Ukraine will change the rules for holding mass events. Organizers must first coordinate them with the General Staff of the Armed Forces. The order of the military administration was signed in fulfillment of the order of Prime Minister Yulia Svirydenko. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/339683-ne-tolko-v-kieve-teper-massovye-meropriyatiya-v-ukraine-vozmozhny-tolko-s-razresheniya-voennykh
Apparently, even protests like the one in this video, where the number of police far exceeds the number of protesters, really scare the authorities. https://www.facebook.com/reel/1205598111374127
When on 28.08.2025 the authorities suddenly allowed men aged 18 to 22 to travel outside Ukraine, several versions appeared explaining this decision. One of them is the desire to get rid of young people who could threaten the authorities with their protests, as happened during the "cartoons" when young people came out to protest against the limitation of the powers of anti-corruption bodies. But as border guards say, this permission did not lead to a significant increase in passenger traffic. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/339565-vyekhat-za-granitsu-smogut-muzhchiny-ot-18-do-22-let-vklyuchitelno-krome-opredelennykh-dolzhnostnykh-lits-opublikovano-postanovlenie
https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/339698-gpsu-razreshenie-na-vyezd-muzhchin-do-23-let-ne-privelo-k-uvelicheniyu-passazhiropotoka
I think another version is more likely. To go abroad, young men will have to register for military service to receive the appropriate document. It is possible that the situation will repeat when people did the same to get a reservation, and then received summonses. In the near future, this theory may be confirmed if the draft age is lowered. Otherwise, the following theory will make sense, which says that this is populism before the upcoming elections. If the war ends and elections are held in the near future, the army will be significantly reduced in any case and young people will not be drafted.
Unfortunately, all this is happening against the backdrop of a constantly deteriorating international situation for Ukraine.
A Polish musician, singer-songwriter, satirist, essayist and actor Krzysztof Skiba attributes the worsening attitude towards Ukrainians in Poland to russian influence: "We're pushing ourselves under the Russian thumb. We clearly miss Moscow's rule, from which Wałęsa, in partnership with Reagan, freed us over thirty years ago. Poles have grown tired of democracy, prosperity, and vacations in Croatia. We once again dream of turning Poland into a Russian collective farm, a land of poverty and backwardness, and a western province of Stalin's empire. These aren't fantasies, but a realistic assessment of what's CURRENTLY HAPPENING. Anti-Ukrainian sentiment, and even a trend of attacking Ukraine, brings us closer every day to the jaws and Soviet muck offered by Putin. To win the war, or at least at checkers, you need to do some good research. Who is friend and who is foe. The only country actively fighting Putin, Ukraine, which has been offering effective resistance and bleeding for three years, has ceased to appeal to Poles. The current trend is stupid, absurd and suicidal spitting on everything Ukrainian." https://www.facebook.com/KrzysztofSkibaFanPage/posts/pod-ruski-butsami-pchamy-si%C4%99-pod-ruski-but-t%C4%99sknimy-wida%C4%87-do-rz%C4%85d%C3%B3w-moskwy-od-kt/1268101134768587/
russian oil exports to India are set to rise in September, dealers said, as New Delhi defies U.S. punitive tariffs designed to force the country to stop the trade and push Moscow towards a peace deal with Ukraine. India has become the biggest buyer of russian oil supplies that were displaced by Western sanctions after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022. This has allowed Indian refiners to benefit from cheaper crude, Reuters reports. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-russian-oil-imports-set-rise-september-defiance-us-2025-08-28/
Three years after russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. and European Union still import billions of euros worth of russian energy and commodities, ranging from liquefied natural gas to enriched uranium. Imports of goods from russia in the first quarter of 2025 totaled 8.74 billion euros ($10.11 billion), down from 30.58 billion euros four years earlier. Since January 2022, the EU has imported 297 billion euros' worth of russian goods. The EU, however, continues to purchase oil, nickel, natural gas, fertilizer, iron and steel from russia. Despite the significant drop in imports, this still gives India reason to accuse the West of double standards. https://www.reuters.com/world/three-years-into-war-us-and-europe-keep-billions-trade-with-russia-2025-08-05/
Xi shows Trump who holds the cards as he sets up meeting with Kim and Putin, who are attending a military parade in the centre of Beijing. It's also a key diplomatic win for Xi. The Chinese leader has been trying hard to project Beijing's power on the international stage - not just as the world's second-largest economy, but also as a diplomatic heavyweight. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx29z9g2kl2o
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I think that Brady will be happy that the Rheinmetall ammo factory is open. I hope his stock investment does very well.
I know I've been away from commenting for a while, but I must have missed the development of some inside joke!
Wlad, I didn't understand what is going on in Poland from your last message. When I watch European news channels, I consistently hear that Poland is arming up against Russia far faster than just about any other nation (not just promising to, as Germany is doing). But it sounds like some are thinking that Poles are hoping to return to the Russian fold...?
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“ Let me remind you aa old joke in russia: A boy asks his dad: "father, now they have put up the price of vodka, does it mean you will drink less?" He replies: "no, my child, it means you will eat less."”
Thanks for the reminder, propaganda is only part of the problem.
Good article on the many missteps of Trump’s negotiator Steve Witless here. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/29/steve-witkoff-russia-ukraine-00533390?nid=0000018f-3124-de07-a98f-3be4d1400000&nname=politico-toplines&nrid=203aeaa3-9053-45b0-8b42-cfe6ef107bb0
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There was an air raid alert all night and I didn't sleep well, although there were no explosions heard in Kyiv. russia carried out a massive strike on Ukraine all night with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. Zaporizhia and Dnipro were the most affected, drones also reached western Ukraine. Again, dozens of destroyed houses and dead. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c79lpxewx42o?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
If last winter the russians seemed to expect to gain control of the entire country and not destroy the energy sector, then this year I would not expect it. If they decide to stop, then it is logical to expect that they will try to destroy everything that remains outside their control. But for now, russia also continues to suffer losses. For the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, russia has spent half of its federal budget revenues on the war. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/povnomasshtabne-vtorgnennya-ukrayinu-vpershe-1756538653.html
On the night of August 30, russia was massively attacked by drones. Explosions were heard in particular in the Samara and Krasnodar regions, where oil refineries were hit. https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/721790-rosiyska-nafta-cherez-ataku-bezpilotnikiv-palayut-naftopererobni-zavodi-u-sizrani-i-krasnodari?utm_source=ukrnet_news
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the aggressor country russia is trying to destabilize Europe every day and is attacking its infrastructure. https://www.tf1info.fr/international/guerre-en-ukraine-russie-le-chancelier-allemand-friedrich-merz-sur-lci-vladimir-poutine-veut-restaurer-l-union-sovietique-2391620.html
But the main event in Ukraine today was the murder of the former speaker of the Ukrainian parliament Andriy Parubiy in the western city of Lviv. Parubiy, 54, rose to prominence during Ukraine's Euromaidan mass protests, which advocated closer ties with the EU and brought down pro-russian former President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Parubiy was a pivotal figure in the Euromaidan movement, which began after Yanukovych's government refused to sign an association agreement with the EU in late 2013. He organised and co-ordinated Maidan's "self-defence" - armed teams of protesters who guarded the sprawling tent camp in the heart of the capital Kyiv. He was injured several times during clashes with Ukraine's riot police. After Yanukovych's ouster, he became secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, during a period when Russia-armed separatists began fighting in eastern Ukraine - and when russian President Vladimir putin annexed the southern Crimea peninsula. Following russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Parubiy joined Ukraine's territorial defence. He had been a lawmaker in Ukraine's current parliament. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjw6ep37469o
Among the theories that are now being told by so-called "experts" on every YouTube channel, from the current government's elimination of possible competitors before the elections to the operation of the russian special services. I did not know him personally and I do not want to say anything about him as a person and a politician, but such murders in the middle of the day demonstrate the next level to which situation in Ukraine has descended.
Even the wonderful weather cannot relieve the headache and improve bad mood, but it helps to write the next book, which I finally have time to work on. It seems that my last project with the company I collaborated with for a whole year will soon end and I will again have a lot of time and little money.
A German approached me with a proposal to organize a joint business in Ukraine for the production of electronics, but he does not imagine how difficult it is, considering that even an investment project of a company like Rheinmetall with all their resources is hampered. On the other hand, there are examples of success, and all those who somehow continue to work in Ukraine. For example Germany's Quantum Systems is ramping up its production inside Ukraine as well as bolstering cooperation with its plants in Germany. Quantum's reconnaissance Vector drones were among the first donated to Ukraine as humanitarian aid in the initial weeks of russia's full-scale invasion in early 2022. Over the next three years, Quantum Systems opened facilities across the war-torn country — an addition to its existing production and delivery lines in Germany, the United States and Australia. https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-drone-quantum-systems-ukraine/
In any case, I started talking to everyone I knew who was already making or had the ability to make electronics. While the production of drones and other electronics for the military is the most profitable business in Ukraine, it is also the most dangerous, not only because of russian drone attacks, but also because of the terrible corruption and attention from law enforcement agencies.
Ukraine's anti-corruption agency has been investigating the country's star deep-strike drone company — Fire Point — over concerns it misled the government on pricing and deliveries, five sources with knowledge of the investigation told the Kyiv Independent. https://kyivindependent.com/exclusive-maker-of-ukraines-prized-flamingo-cruise-missile-facing-corruption-probe/?fbclid=IwY2xjawMebXVleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFDajdqMUx0TUlqbFcyWWJuAR6AhrYuRoVL6gCdfVFdVGz25FGLk2TXuAtH-URCJhe-yX008R2HxK0l0i4BYA_aem_mEZFuPTw6qEb-7jL-GCl4A
The National Anti-Corruption Bureau, or NABU, is also looking into the co-owner of President Volodymyr Zelensky's former film studio as the alleged ultimate beneficiary of the company, sources said. Until recently, the weapons maker was virtually unknown outside of Ukraine's defense circles, despite appearing to be one of the largest — if not the largest — recipient of Defense Ministry drone budget funds, according to documents obtained by the Kyiv Independent. But over the past weeks, Fire Point has gone on a charm offensive, promoting its FP-1 deep-strike drones and "Flamingo" cruise missile in Western media. In his first public comments about the weapon, Zelensky last week called the Flamingo Ukraine's "most successful" missile the country has in its arsenal to defend against ussia's nearly four-year full-scale invasion.
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Wlad, I didn't understand what is going on in Poland from your last message. When I watch European news channels, I consistently hear that Poland is arming up against Russia far faster than just about any other nation (not just promising to, as Germany is doing). But it sounds like some are thinking that Poles are hoping to return to the Russian fold...?
I also do not know all the nuances, but it seems to me that in Poland, measures aimed at strengthening armed protection against russia and populist movements to persecute Ukrainians on the part of the new Polish president and his electorate are strangely combined. I am not inclined to think that he is stupid and does not realize the economic and political consequences in the event of a deterioration of relations with Ukraine and Ukrainians, which gives reason to believe that he is either ready to cede Poland's interests for his own or is under the influence of russia, which only will benefit from this. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian issue became one of the main ones played out by competing parties during the last elections.
russia is likely to step up attacks in an attempt to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure before winter, according to a report by the US Institute for the Study of War. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30-2025
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I know I've been away from commenting for a while, but I must have missed the development of some inside joke!
Hi Brady, glad to see you here!
I thought that you had mentioned being invested in Rheinmetall AG, but I must be mistaken.
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In the Odessa region, border guards shot a man who was trying to flee Ukraine while crossing the border. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/340070-v-odesskoy-oblasti-pri-popytke-peresecheniya-granitsy-iz-za-pulevogo-raneniya-pogib-muzhchina-gpsu-naznachila-rassledovanie
Think about it, Ukrainians shoot other Ukrainians in the back. Some people have turned into desperate, lawless animals, and others into monsters. The fact that the authorities have limited people's freedom could still be explained by their greed and desire to maintain power at any cost. But how can you explain when some people shoot others in the back. They shoot not at the enemy, but at their own fellow citizens. In the back. The degradation of society is frightening. What is even more frightening is that a sufficient number of people have formed and exist in Ukraine who consider all this acceptable. Or maybe only those who are even worse than them can stop the russians? And this is the main goal of the selection of those who were previously Ukrainians and will remain on the territory of the country that was previously Ukraine? Now I ask myself, what do I have in common with this country and the people who live here?
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Wlad, I didn't understand what is going on in Poland from your last message. When I watch European news channels, I consistently hear that Poland is arming up against Russia far faster than just about any other nation (not just promising to, as Germany is doing). But it sounds like some are thinking that Poles are hoping to return to the Russian fold...?
I also do not know all the nuances, but it seems to me that in Poland, measures aimed at strengthening armed protection against russia and populist movements to persecute Ukrainians on the part of the new Polish president and his electorate are strangely combined. I am not inclined to think that he is stupid and does not realize the economic and political consequences in the event of a deterioration of relations with Ukraine and Ukrainians, which gives reason to believe that he is either ready to cede Poland's interests for his own or is under the influence of russia, which only will benefit from this. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian issue became one of the main ones played out by competing parties during the last elections.
russia is likely to step up attacks in an attempt to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure before winter, according to a report by the US Institute for the Study of War. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30-2025
Definitely seems like a divergence, doesn't it? Ockam's razor would suggest to me that Poles are vitally concerned about protecting their own country from Russia, but not as concerned about protecting Ukraine. Or, they may be looking at other EU countries that have been disrupted by an influx of Muslim migrants and generalizing that fear to include Ukrainians. (Seems like an irrational fear in regard to Ukrainian refugees!) At any rate the Polish politicians are catering to the fears of the populace.
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Firstly, in Poland, compared to other European countries, there are very few Muslim migrants and they are not seen as a threat. One of the first questions that even Poles themselves ask is why are there claims only against Ukrainians?
To understand this, you need to look at the history of relations between Poles and Ukrainians. But what matters now is not so much what happened, but what attitude some politicians are now forming towards it, including, unfortunately, those who have come to power. For example, they are stirring up hatred for Ukrainians because of what some of them did to Poles a hundred years ago, but they are silent about what Poles did to Ukrainians at the same time in the same places. The big question is who suffered more, but you understand that neither truth nor justice is the goal for those who speculate on this issue, although neither one nor the other participants in those events have been alive for a long time.
It's good that they don't even remember the events of even older times that are described in the historical novel By Fire and Sword (Polish: Ogniem i mieczem), by the Polish author Henryk Sienkiewicz. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/With_Fire_and_Sword
Interestingly, the Polish director Jerzy Hoffman dedicated the film based on this novel to his wife, who was Ukrainian. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/With_Fire_and_Sword_(film)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiUORqTCD6E
I believe that the memory of such things should warn against repetition, and not serve to incite hostility, from which Poles and Ukrainians will suffer, and the russians will win.
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Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis said in an interview with the Greek newspaper Real News that Greece will not participate in providing military security guarantees to Ukraine, despite the security agreement signed on October 17, 2024. https://www.real.gr/politiki/arthro/giorgos-gerapetritis-sti-realnews-to-ergo-tis-ilektrikis-diasyndesis-elladas-kyprou-tha-prochorisei-647552/
Norway has agreed to buy Type-26 anti-ship frigates to be built in the UK. The £10 billion deal will create 4,000 jobs and significantly strengthen NATO's northern flank, The Guardian reports. https://mind.ua/news/20294007-norvegiya-uklala-istorichnij-oboronnij-kontrakt-na-zakupivlyu-britanskih-fregativ-the-guardian
On September 1, a new school year started in Ukraine for over 3.5 million children, of whom almost 2.3 million will study in person, which is 103 thousand more than last year. https://unn.ua/news/ponad-35-miliona-ditei-rozpochaly-navchannia-23-miliona-uchniv-pishly-do-shkil-oflain
More than 400 schools in Ukraine have closed or changed their educational status due to a small number of students. This was reported by Deputy Minister of Education and Science Nadiya Kuzmichova. According to her, as of spring 2024, there were 525 educational institutions in Ukraine with fewer than 45 children. Since the beginning of the new academic year, 457 of them have either been liquidated or have had their status downgraded. It is worth noting that the number of schools in Ukraine is decreasing every year. If in the 2020/2021 academic year there were 14,815 schools operating, then in September 2024 there were already 12,268 general secondary education institutions. https://komersant.ua/shkoly-bez-ditey-400-navchalnykh-zakladiv-likviduvaly-abo-ponyzyly-status/
In September 2025, mandatory basic military training began in Ukraine for students of higher education institutions who have reached the age of 18. https://buh.ligazakon.net/news/238708_z-1-veresnya-zaprovadzhena-obovyazkova-bazova-zagalnovyskova-pdgotovka--kogo-stosutsya
The United Kingdom has extended the Ukraine Permission Extension program for two years, during which it will provide protection and humanitarian assistance to Ukrainian refugees. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/strengthening-border-security-and-reforms-to-the-asylum-system
One of the largest prosthetic centers in Europe and a network of rehabilitation microclinics are to be launched in Ukraine. This was announced by the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Health Mykhailo Radutsky.
“In early June 2024, the Verkhovna Rada ratified a grant agreement between France and Ukraine. This agreement provides for over 51 million euros for projects in various sectors, in particular in medicine - the creation of a production center in Lviv and a network of prosthetic microclinics in the regions” https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/339916-v-ukraine-zarabotaet-odin-iz-krupneyshikh-tsentrov-protezirovaniya-v-evrope
The evaders strike back. A Ukrainian border guard was found dead near the border with Poland. https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/volyn/1756908731-na-volini-bilya-kordonu-z-polshcheyu-znayshli-mertvim-viyskovosluzhbovtsya-dpsu
I heard that some deserters are fleeing with the weapons they were given in the army, and maybe this is one of them. The probability that a border guard commits suicide due to a nervous breakdown due to the need to shoot refugees in the back is extremely small. That is, the state spends money on border guards, on those who catch those who do not want to serve, on those who have to serve, so that they kill each other at the border. Well, such mobilization is extremely effective.
The head of one of the largest volunteer foundations, "Return Alive," Taras Chmut, in an interview with the YouTube channel Pressing, believes that out of approximately 30,000 mobilized soldiers, about a third, that is, 10,000 of them, end up in combat units. The rest turn out to be too sick, run away, or have reasons to resign. https://www.unian.ua/war/viyna-v-ukrajini-chmut-rozpoviv-yaki-ye-problemi-z-mobilizaciyeyu-v-krajini-13118133.html
Deputy Head of the President's Office Pavlo Palisa stated that mobilization in Ukraine will not stop immediately even in the event of a ceasefire. https://vsviti.com.ua/news/170897
By the way, after men under 23 were allowed to travel abroad, this category was immediately called "18-22" and a joke appeared - not everyone has such a long size and this is again discrimination.
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I've been feeling unwell for the last few days. Weakness since morning and heartache at night. However, many people, even younger than me, complain about the same thing. Maybe it's a result of constant stress, maybe something in the air. This summer, two of my friends died in their 50s. They were wonderful guys whom I knew for many years. They certainly deserved a better and longer life.
Chinese President Xi Jinping commented on the possibility of people living to 150 during the conversation between Xi, Vladimir putin and Kim Jong Un. putin confirmed the discussion in response to a question at a news conference with russian reporters at the end of his visit to China. Modern medical developments including surgery to replace organs give rise to expectations that “life expectancy will increase significantly,” putin said. “This will have social, political and economic consequences. Of course we should also think about this.” Age and health have been a concern for all three leaders, with none of them appointing clear successors. Xi, 72, ended presidential term limits and is set for a potential fourth term leading China in 2027, while putin, also 72, has changed his nation’s laws to allow him to rule russia for longer. Kim, 41, took his daughter to Beijing, adding to speculation that he’s grooming her as a successor, Bloomberg reports. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-03/xi-muses-on-living-to-150-in-rare-hot-mic-moment-with-putin-kim?srnd=phx-politics
But it seems that it's not just Eastern leaders who want to live and rule forever.
When President Donald Trump sat down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last month, the topic was the weighty issue of ending russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But at one point, Trump took a provocative diversion into domestic politics. Zelensky noted that, in his country, the law doesn’t allow for elections during periods of martial law.
“So you say during the war, you can’t have elections,” Trump responded. “So let me just say, three and a half years from now – so you mean, if we happen to be in a war with somebody, no more elections? Oh, that’s good.” https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/02/politics/democrats-alarm-trump-elections-analysis
Do all those who talk about the weakness of russia, which is undeniably weak, understand that it is necessary to take into account its allies, which include not only North Korea, but also China and India? Leaders of China, russia, North Korea and Iran gather in Beijing for huge military parade in challenge to the West. Xi’s message with his multi-day exercise of soft and hard power, is clear: China is a force that wants to reset global rules – and it’s not afraid to challenge those of the West. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/02/china/china-axis-of-upheaval-sco-summit-parade-dst-intl-hnk https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yl1e5gvznt
The house rules of a few countries should not be imposed on others,” Xi told more than 20 world leaders gathering at a two-day summit orchestrated to play-up China’s global leadership and its close and enduring partnership with russia, as the two neighbors seek to rebalance global power in their favor at the expense of the US and its allies.
The meeting of the Beijing- and Moscow- backed Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the northern port city of Tianjin is China’s biggest diplomatic event of the year, including russian President Vladimir putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/01/china/china-sco-summit-xi-address-intl-hnk
Meanwhile, russia has begun using new modifications of Shahed kamikaze drones for attacks on the territory of Ukraine. These drones are equipped with cameras and radio control systems, which allows them to be controlled even from the territory of the russian Federation. Most likely, they use mobile communication, which is why the authorities can turn it off during drone attacks. https://gazeta.ua/articles/life/_rosiya-zastosuvala-novi-shahed-z-kamerami-ta-radiokeruvannyam/1229029
In recent days, russian attacks have been aimed mainly at destroying Ukrainian energy facilities. Moreover, putin called on Eastern European countries to stop supplying gas and oil to Ukraine during a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on Tuesday in Beijing. https://gazeta.ua/articles/world-life/_putin-zaklikav-yevropejski-krayini-zupiniti-postachannya-gazu-ta-nafti-v-ukrayinu/1228914
I've heard that more and more old strategic aircraft are breaking down in russia, but does it matter now if China can support russia with its weapons if necessary? https://militarnyi.com/uk/news/dva-rosijskyh-tu-160-ne-zmogly-vykonaty-pusky-raket-po-ukrayini-cherez-tehnichni-problemy/
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After additional medication, I was just starting to feel better when another heavy sleepless night came.
For the first time, more than 800 drones and missiles overnight. Civilians killed and injured, civilian infrastructure damaged in Kyiv, Odesa, Kremenchuk, Kryvy Rih, Zaporizhzhia, among other cities. One of the government buildings in Kyiv was hit for the first time. Damaged bridge over the Dnipro in Kremenchuk. I think we will know about other consequences later. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c1dqp42r4zvt
In Kyiv, it was very loud all night and in the morning ballistic missiles were shot down nearby.
In the morning the sun shines, there is electricity and water, I drink tea, look out the window and only the smoke in the air reminds me of the terrible night. They say that only 30% of the missiles were destroyed, so air defense capabilities have decreased. Not very optimistic before autumn.
On the night of September 6, the russian military attacked Ukraine with 91 Shahed attack UAVs and simulator drones of various types, the Ukrainian Air Force reported. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-povitriani-syly-drony-rf/33523265.html Truth be told, drone attacks of varying degrees of intensity occur every day.
The situation on the ground is not good either. The russians have advanced in Sumy, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, according to DeepState maps. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/rosijani-prosunulisja-v-sumskij-donetskij-ta-dnipropetrovskij-oblastjakh-deepstate.html
Ukraine is on its own. Europe is all talk, no action. Macron’s promise of boots on the ground is an empty show of solidarity that putin will never allow, writes The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/05/europe-is-lying-to-ukraine-no-troops-are-coming/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0m40pv44kgo
It seems that the future of Ukraine now depends on China's agreements with Europe.
The Ministry of Defense discussed with the relevant parliamentary committees the draft laws that caused public resonance. The norm on increasing punishment for the military will be removed. Protests took place in Kyiv and Lviv on September 5. People demanded more protection of the rights of military personnel, including a law on a military ombudsman, the establishment of clear terms of service, and the absence of repression. https://24tv.ua/shmigalya-radi-virishili-ne-posilyuvati-pokarannya-dlya-viyskovih_n2909289
https://24tv.ua/zahistist-prava-viyskovih-kiyevi-mitinguyut-proti-posilennya_n2908833
When you perceive the war exclusively within your own country, everything is clear, but when you look at it on a global scale, everything becomes less clear. India becomes Ukraine’s top diesel supplier in July as Trump slaps punitive tariffs on Delhi over russian oil imports. Indian-origin diesel is reaching Ukraine through multiple channels. A significant portion arrives via tanker deliveries along the Danube from Romania. https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/india-becomes-ukraines-top-diesel-supplier-in-july-as-trump-slaps-punitive-tariffs-on-delhi-over-russian-oil-imports/3961937/?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=WhatsappShare
It turns out that India is the main supplier of fuel made from russian oil to Ukraine. Just as China is the main supplier of drone components to both russia and Ukraine.
Recently, I have started looking for opportunities to get involved in investment processes again. One obvious way is to study the experience of others, which led me to an interview with Oleksandr Yakovenko, founder of TAF Industries (formerly TAF Drones), which in a year and a half has gone from a startup with 20 people to a thousand specialists. The company produces up to 80,000 drones per month and is one of three Ukrainian companies that are included in the ranking of the best drone manufacturers in the world. Most of the interview is about how difficult it is to find people, but something else caught my eye. In 2024, the company received about a billion dollars in revenue, which has two components: contracts and mass production of drones. But 60-80% of revenue is the import of components and their sale. The company orders a significant part of its components from China. Although there are risks with export control, they are smaller than the risks of production in Ukraine under shelling. For example, the SMT line for assembling electronics in Mukachevo was destroyed a few weeks ago. https://dou.ua/lenta/interviews/taf-industries-drones-interview/?from=recent_pinned
Here is the answer to the prospects for work in Ukraine for an electronics company that will not be another component of a corrupt procurement system, but will decide to engage in real production.
Lana Zerkal, who I consider one of the top women in Ukraine by her combination of qualities, gave an interview to the BBC, which can be considered part of the next election campaign in Ukraine. Her diplomatic past and ties to the UK give reason to believe that she will be part of the team that Zaluzhny could lead.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1kzkz9le3ko
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I am still always thinking of you Wlad & Eugene.
Tonight is first time I've had time and energy to read all the posts since my last visit.
I am full time caretaker of my friend. I now control all of her finances, and all the responsibilities related to that. I'm the least skilled person for this task. I am also in charge of her caregivers and the medical appointments. I am now a parent to a 75 year old who I refuse to let fall between the cracks and be forgotten.
My doctor recommended a pain specialist for me. Now, after many weeks of adjusting, am at full dosage of new drug. This drug has many side-effects, the primary one is lethargy. When my morning alarm sounds, I feel so exhausted, like I need to go back to sleep. The fatigue never stops. Remaining awake has turned into some type of physical contest, I never know which will win, my will or the fatigue.
I love her and will continue my quest. I am the great noise stirring up the dirt with her medical team. Yet I have to be grateful, they now visit her twice a day, ensuring she is safe, fed, has her medications, and provide her transportation to various doctors and practitioners.
So I think about you guys, over there, and my fists clinch ..... My petty grievances compared to your world being bombed.
Humbled.
I can't understand a world like this.
The kittens are well. They have all found safe, soft, comfortable places to slumber. Their next adventures are just a few hours away, when my alarm sounds again at 6am. They love the first bits of morning now, it's still DARK outside when I open the back door. The whole pack of little tigers quickly exit and begin their individual perfect quests of the day. Then one at a time, they come home and visit and enjoy a hug, a nibble of breakfast, then WHOOOSHHH, they are gone again in a silent moment. This little family is my rock, and in some odd way, I couldn't imagine anything more fulfilling.
I'm not ready for any of this. Yet here we are.
Stay safe, see you way through this insanity.
I'm always thinking of you guys!
73
Jaye
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Hi Jaye! Glad to see you!
I agree with you. It's good to have someone around. I was even thinking about getting a hamster again, but russian terrorists have been destroying our energy system lately and I wouldn't want the poor animal to freeze in the winter. https://apostrophe.ua/ua/news/society/2025-09-08/zagarbnyky-atakuvaly-energetychnu-infrastrukturu-v-kilkoh-oblastyah-ukrayiny/350850
https://zn.ua/ukr/energetics/rf-vdarila-po-tes-na-kijivshchini-rjatuvalniki-j-enerhetiki-namahajutsja-stabilizuvati-situatsiju.html
During russia's large-scale combined attack on the night of September 7, the Cabinet of Ministers building was hit not by a Shahed drone, as initially reported, but by an Iskander missile. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/clylvgdd82no
In any case, this speaks volumes about the state of air defense even in Kyiv. In one of the videos, I saw several drones hit the huge Thermal Power Plant near Kyiv. None of them were intercepted.
https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/topic/237244-rosiyani-prinesli-nam-viynu/?do=findComment&comment=5539825
Ukraine risks facing a shortage of air defense equipment as deliveries from the United States slow amid increased russian air attacks, following a review of military aid to Ukraine by the U.S. Department of Defense, Western and Ukrainian officials have said, the Financial Times reports. https://www.ft.com/content/26df4030-9613-498d-9ce8-44691aee4346
The Kremlin said on Monday, Sept 8, that no sanctions would ever force russia to change course in the Ukraine war, hours after the United States and the European Union indicated they were considering additional economic restrictions. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/kremlin-says-sanctions-will-never-force-russia-change-course-2025-09-08/
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has confirmed that Rome will not send troops to Ukraine as part of a possible "Coalition of the Willing." He also believes that the war will not end before Christmas 2025, RaiNews.it reports. https://www.rainews.it/maratona/2025/09/attacco-di-droni-russi-nella-notte-esplosioni-a-kiev-kharkiv-e-dnipro-e2d882d4-161f-467b-8dce-5bf28d22ff88.html#65b9441a-b968-46ad-8f41-6d28ee2257fb
On the evening of Monday, September 8, it was also noisy in occupied Donetsk - the city was attacked by cruise missiles. They hit the former Topaz plant, where the russian invaders had a military base. Windows were blown out in my friend's apartment, which is located nearby. It's sad when you only learn about the fate of your property from the photos sent to you by those who remained in the occupied territories. https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/v-okupovanomu-donetsku-krilati-raketi-urazili-kolishnij-zavod-topaz-tam-bula-vijskova-baza-rf-foto-i-video.htm
The management of the largest energy company warns of a difficult winter. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/340575-gendirektor-yasno-sergey-kovalenko-prizval-gotovitsya-k-raznym-stsenariyam-so-svetom
Of course, you can buy more batteries and gas cylinders for lighting and cooking, but this will not help heat apartment buildings, supply them with water, and pump sewage.
There was an air raid all night today, and although there weren't many really loud explosions, I couldn't sleep and didn't feel very well in the morning. Then I went to the hairdresser. She's one of the few people I still talk to in person. She looked tired too. Next week I'm going to have some tests and see a cardiologist. I also don't like having my blood pressure constantly high. Anyway, I thank God for another day, the opportunity to eat and take a warm shower, and the presence of electricity.
On the night of September 10, russia attacked Ukraine, especially the western regions, with strike drones all night, explosions were heard in Lviv, Vinnytsia and other cities. Also at night, russia launched cruise missiles from Tu-95MS bombers and from sea carriers, which attacked cities in western Ukraine after 6 a.m.
According to the air force, the main targets of the attack on September 10 were the energy system. They claim that they managed to shoot down or suppress 386 drones out of 415. They also shot down 27 cruise missiles out of 42 launched. They failed to shoot down the only ballistic missile launched. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cqxz85xj2zzo
Some of the drones even flew into Poland, which was the first to shoot down russian drones. At the same time, for the first time, the Poles had to close the airports of Warsaw, Lublin and Rzeszow.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml
"Here we go!" - US President Donald Trump reacts to russia's drone incursion over Poland, saying Moscow violated its airspace.
russia's defence ministry says it did not plan to attack any targets in Poland. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk says up to four of 19 russian drones were shot down by Polish and Nato aircraft (Polish F-16 fighter jets, Dutch F-35s, Italian AWACS surveillance planes and NATO mid-air refuelling aircraft). It marks the first time russian drones have been downed over the territory of a Nato country. Tusk also warns that Poland is at its closest to open conflict since World War Two.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c2enwk1l9e1t
https://www.reuters.com/world/live-poland-shoots-down-drones-its-airspace-during-russias-ukraine-attack-2025-09-10/?
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk assured after the russian drone attack that "there is no reason to panic." According to him, this was a "large-scale provocation," but all procedures worked flawlessly, and the threat was neutralized thanks to commanders, military personnel, and allies. https://www.rmf24.pl/fakty/polska/news-tusk-o-rosyjskich-dronach-prowokacja-na-duza-skale,nId,8019153
The reaction of the West and NATO is expected and understandable, and the russians can celebrate another victory, this time on NATO territory.
The United States has updated its visa application rules. Only two application points have been designated for Ukrainians — Warsaw and Krakow. Kyiv is not on the list, so all those wishing to apply must schedule an interview in these cities in Poland. https://news.novyny.live/kiyiv-vikliuchili-zi-spisku-punktiv-podachi-viz-do-ssha-detali-279475.html
The Ukrainian authorities are going to reduce the number of courts in Ukraine by three times, despite the fact that there is already a shortage of judges and it takes a very long time to consider a lawsuit. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/340768-optimizatsiya-seti-sudov-mozhet-vyglyadet-slozhnoy-i-nepopulyarnoy-reformoy-no-ee-nuzhno-sdelat-irina-mudraya
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Jaye, God bless you for sticking with such a difficult situation. That's true love.
Wlad, glad you are feeling better, although the insomnia is unwelcome news. I don't know what to say about the drone incursion into Poland, other than it's just Russia testing the limits of NATO. Typical of Putin.
The Ukrainian news over here has been in regards to a 23 year old Ukrainian woman who was brutally killed by one of America's numerous urban creatures. How sadly ironic that she thought she had escaped the Ukrainian war zone, only to die in an American one. A terrible tragedy, although it pales in significance compared to what is happening in Ukraine itself.
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The Ukrainian news over here has been in regards to a 23 year old Ukrainian woman who was brutally killed by one of America's numerous urban creatures. How sadly ironic that she thought she had escaped the Ukrainian war zone, only to die in an American one. A terrible tragedy, although it pales in significance compared to what is happening in Ukraine itself.
The Democratic People's Republic of Ukraine regime did not let her father leave the country for the funeral - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15085907/Father-Ukrainian-refugee-knifed-North-Carolina-train-funeral.html
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US President's special envoy Keith Kellogg has visited Kyiv again and secured it from drones and missiles for the duration of his stay. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-zelenskyi-kellog/33528038.html
But the rest of the country continues to suffer daily airstrikes. Even interactive maps have appeared where you can see online where the missile danger is. https://fakty.com.ua/ua/ukraine/suspilstvo/20250913-onlajn-karta-povitryanyh-tryvog/
EU High Representative Kaia Kallas believes that the war in Ukraine will drag on. According to her, it will last at least two more years, El Pais reports.
Nevertheless, this does not stop big business from continuing and expanding its presence in Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal announced the allocation of land to the German defense concern Rheinmetall for the construction of a joint projectile manufacturing plant. According to the head of the Ministry of Defense, the new enterprise will be built in a "safe region." https://armyinform.com.ua/2025/09/11/u-bezpechnomu-regioni-ukrayina-vydilyla-rheinmetall-zemlyu-dlya-spilnogo-zavodu-z-vygotovlennya-snaryadiv/
In my opinion, there is no "safe" region in Ukraine, but I also know that the German government has created risk insurance instruments for German companies operating in Ukraine.
Over 10,000 entries of Ukrainians aged 18–22 were recorded at the Polish-Ukrainian border in the first week after the changes in legislation — 10–12 times more than before, writes the Polish publication Rzeczpospolita. https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art42982391-mlodzi-mezczyzni-z-ukrainy-ruszyli-do-polski-to-efekt-decyzji-kijowa
Poland is deploying about 40,000 troops to its borders with Belarus and russia in response to the russian-Belarusian military exercises "West-2025", which begin on Friday, TVP reported. In addition, Poland will send its military to Ukraine for training in countermeasures against unmanned aerial vehicles. https://tvpworld.com/88865149/poland-deploys-40000-soldiers-to-border-as-russia-holds-drills
F-35 fighter jet pilots shot down russian Shahed drones using AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles that cost more than €400,000 apiece — targeting aircraft that cost only a few thousand euros, Bild reported on Sept. 11, citing unnamed sources. A senior NATO officer told the German tabloid that using F-35s against drones “makes no military sense in the long term.” https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/polen-vorfall-400-000-euro-fuer-eine-abgeschossene-billig-drohne-68c1d4d19f4fa552b0d73d90
On the afternoon of September 11, a Ukrainian Su-27 plane crashed during a combat mission, the pilot died. https://hromadske.ua/viyna/251172-pid-chas-vykonannia-boyovoho-zavdannia-zahynuv-lyotchyk-su-27-oleksandr-borovyk?traffic_source=ukr.net
The State Border Guard Service denies this and says that they have not recorded an increase in the flow of passengers at the border of men aged 18-22. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/340299-v-gpsu-raskryli-vyros-li-passazhiropotok-posle-razresheniya-muzhchinam-18-22-let-vyezzhat-za-granitsu
Someone says that this is Zelensky's main electorate, although supporters of the conspiracy theory can point out that this consistently corresponds to the idea of destroying the country from the inside. I don't really understand why Zelensky would win the election if the russians take over the country? On the other hand, after the election he can send everyone to the front, starting from the age of 16 and women. Well, except for the police and everyone else who supports the regime. Instead, Europe, and primarily Poland, once again received the best Ukrainians who will make its demographics and economy better.
The 2025 admission campaign is still underway in Ukraine. Ukrainian universities can admit twice as many applicants to their ranks for obtaining bachelor's education than there are currently in our state. This was stated by the Director General of the Directorate of Higher Education and Adult Education of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, Oleh Sharo.
https://24tv.ua/education/vstupna-kampaniya-2025-skilki-abituriyentiv-mozhut-priynyati_n2913132
I don't know what proportion of Ukrainians aged 18 are leaving Ukraine because of the war, but I do know that many are going to study at universities in Europe, partly because the quality of education in Ukraine has declined. And this is a vicious circle.
The International Monetary Fund has determined that Ukraine’s funding needs over the next two years may be as much as $20 billion higher than the government in Kyiv estimates as talks to secure the next aid package are set to begin. The discrepancy emerged during the meetings IMF staff has held in Kyiv over the last week to discuss external financing for 2026 and 2027, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Reconciling the differences is crucial before the Washington-based lender considers Ukraine’s request for a new loan program as the current funding runs out. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-11/imf-sees-up-to-20-billion-hole-in-ukraine-funding-through-2027?srnd=homepage-europe
The Prosecutor General's Office proposes to recreate a military justice system that would include not only military police with operational and investigative functions, but also investigative units, military prosecutors, military courts, and the bar. This was the case in the Soviet Union, with the possible exception of military lawyers. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/340879-v-ofise-genprokurora-podcherknuli-neobkhodimost-sozdaniya-voennoy-politsii-voennykh-sudov-i-voennoy-advokatury
Also the People's Deputy from the pro-government faction, Oleksandr Fedienko, believes that for the efficiency of the mobilization centers, it is necessary to raise their salaries to the level of the prosecutor's office and other law enforcement agencies. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/340896-chlen-komiteta-po-natsbezopasnosti-predlozhil-podnyat-v-ttsk-zarplaty-do-urovnya-nabu-gbr-i-prokuratury
It is becoming harder and harder to capture enough people and keep them in obedience as it is clear that the primary task of the authorities is to retain power, but more and more people in Ukraine are unable to solve the question of how to help the country without helping its authorities, and do nothing at all.
I recently heard a good description of the situation in Ukraine. The dictatorship exists thanks to fear and distrust. It surrounds itself with informers and sycophants, because they are the ones who provide constant control and support the government with flattery. Instead, the dictatorship is afraid of talented and intelligent people: they are destroyed, forced to be silent, they simply flee the country. Educated, talented and critically thinking people pose a threat to the dictatorship, because they are able to ask questions, create alternative ideas, unite others around change. As a result, society loses its best and most talented people, and the country gradually degrades, and now, in war, this happens many times faster than in peaceful life, and we see the results on the streets of our cities and villages, in the news and on the map ...
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It's still quiet in Kyiv, but the war is not only on the front lines. On the night of September 14, an extraordinary event occurred in the Kyiv region - a detonation of ammunition occurred in a freight train carrying military cargo. Two dozen trains changed routes and there are reports of injuries to those who were nearby on a passenger train.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/341081-nochyu-na-kievschine-proizoshla-detonatsiya-boepripasov-v-poezde-s-voennym-gruzom-genshtab
Ukraine is struggling to defend itself against the growing number of attack drones that Moscow has started using in its onslaughts. When russia introduced self-destructing drones from Iran into its war against Ukraine three years ago, Moscow made headlines around the world by launching 43 of them into Ukraine in a single strike. This month, in just one night, russia sent more than 800 exploding drones and decoys swarming across the border.
The drastic increase is a result of huge production jumps in russia for one-way attack drones, which are prioritized by President Vladimir V. putin and are now being assembled domestically at two main facilities. The Kremlin has also pressed through big manufacturing increases in the smaller tactical drones that russia uses on the front line, enlisting russian regional governments, factories and even high school students in the push. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/14/world/europe/russia-ukraine-drone-attacks-production.html
President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to NATO allies in a letter Saturday, saying the US will issue “major” sanctions on russia only when they agree to do the same and stop buying oil from russia. Meeting Trump’s demands would mark a major shift among the alliance, and there are major questions as to whether there would be collective interest in taking these steps. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/13/politics/trump-nato-russia-tariffs-ultimatum
Ukraine’s largest drone manufacturer, Ukrspecsystems, has announced a £200 million investment programme in East Anglia, including a new 11,000m² factory at Mildenhall and a test and training site at Elmsett, Suffolk. The project is expected to create up to 500 jobs and apprenticeships across the region, with onboarding of the UK workforce due to begin later this year. Production of drones is scheduled to start in early 2026. The announcement comes days after Lotus confirmed 550 job cuts at its Hethel headquarters in Norfolk, underlining the significance of new investment for the area. Ukrspecsystems has said it plans to expand further in the UK over the next three years. https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/ukrainian-drone-firm-to-invest-200m-in-britain/
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Today, my friend called me and told me an interesting story. He is still two years away from the age at which he is no longer mobilized, but he is already twenty years old and disabled. Because of this, he was also removed from military registration a long time ago and even went abroad. But not this time. At the border, the border guards told him that he was again on the military registration and was wanted, and his documents were no longer valid. Apparently, because of his age and not very healthy appearance, they did not detain him, but he was forced to return to Kyiv and go solve this problem. In Kyiv, he learned that the mobilization centers had been scattered after previous attacks on them and finding the right person was a separate adventure. He found the employees he needed in one of the hospitals, where they were allocated several offices. Should we be surprised when the russians hit such places with drones and missiles?
He also noted that there were police at the entrance to the hospital, who were catching men who came to the hospital. He does not rule out that among them could have been not only those who intended to visit doctors, but also those who were supposed to come to the mobilization center workers for any questions.
After he provided copies of all the necessary documents to obtain a postponement of mobilization due to illness, he was told to go to another address to find out where and when he could get an answer. It is significant that everyone refused to record the fact of his appeal, without making any registration. Then he went to another building behind high fences, the gate of which was guarded by a soldier with a machine gun. He left his young daughter in the car because he thought he would return quickly. Inside, he saw a queue and decided to get out to pick up his daughter from the car. He was not allowed to do this, and when asked what would happen to his daughter if he did not get out at all, a soldier laughed and said: "Don't worry. We will take care of her. We will give her to an orphanage." After some time, he nevertheless left there and terribly regretted returning to Ukraine. Now he became one of the inhabitants of the animal farm, where mobilization is when tough, armed men capture the weak and sick so that they can go to the front and fight in their place.
I think there's no need to say what he thinks about this country after that.
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That is one horrific story! What a terrible corrupt conscription system.
I hope Europe will bite the bullet and stop buying Russian LNG and oil. The amount they have been buying is larger than ever, and would cut the legs out from any sanctions regime. I know stopping the purchases would be a huge sacrifice for Europe, but in the long run, not as big as sacrifice as fighting a well-financed Russia will be.
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I am disappointed but not surprised. How can the EU justify continuing to enable Russian aggression against a neighbor? Rhetorical question.
"The European Union will hold off on introducing another round of sanctions against Russia planned for this week, after U.S. President Donald Trump demanded that Europe stop buying Russian oil before agreeing to tougher U.S. sanctions on Moscow."
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First of all, we probably still cannot talk about Europe as a single entity. It is a bunch of different countries with different, and sometimes directly opposing, interests. Even the attitude of Poland, as a country that provided maximum humanitarian aid to Ukraine and was and still remains the main logistical hub, is rapidly changing and, after the election of the new president, Karol Nawrocki, is becoming anti-Ukrainian.
The BBC has already written about the growth of anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Polish society. However, now we are talking about something else - the exploitation of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric and the promotion of solutions directed against Ukrainians have become an organic part of the Polish political mainstream, and it is possible that this trend will increase at least until the parliamentary elections, which are critically important for the country's future, scheduled for 2027. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cn95y5vj0d4o
The first reason why this is happening is obvious. Anti-Ukrainian sentiments have been growing in Polish society for a long time, and politicians cannot help but pay tribute to this and take it into account in their rhetoric and actions. Poles are also tired of the war, goods and services are becoming more expensive, the media remind us that Poland could become the next victim of russian aggression - Poles are taking out their frustration on Ukrainians in this regard. This is very sad, and most importantly - it only benefits the russians.
Of course, any sane person cannot help but understand that if Ukraine falls, the war may continue on the territory of Poland, that the contribution of Ukrainians to the Polish economy and demography far exceeds the costs of supporting them, but marginals and populists willingly listen to russian propaganda. After all, propaganda does not make idiots out of people, it is designed for them.
And those who say that Poland is for Poles and call for Ukrainians to return to Ukraine may one day hear a proposal that all Poles who currently live and work in, for example, the UK and Germany should also return to Poland.
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I still went to the doctor and had some tests done. It's good that there are still doctors and money for them. On the one hand, my heart isn't that bad, but my blood pressure has gotten worse and I've been prescribed new medications. The doctor said I should spend more time outside and walk. We laughed about it together. Seriously, I need to figure out how to do it without putting myself in danger.
Staying healthy in these conditions is not so easy. This year two more of my friends died in their fifties, and even my friend Sergiy UT3UFD once told me that his main goal is to live to forty. Well, then I will set myself the goal of living to fifty.
Although now the main task will be to find a source of income. Since some foreign companies are still operating in Ukraine, and others are exploring the possibilities for this, on Andreas' DO1AWD advice I watched several webinars organized by the German-Ukrainian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (AHK Ukraine) and plan to make a commercial offer for their members. I was introduced to Andreas by Colin G3ZAF and this is another example of excellent radio networking.
A representative of the Ministry of Economy was present at one of the webinars and was asked about the situation with workers. She replied that this issue is being resolved by training and retraining existing people and gave an example of how several people ended up in their ministry in this way. Well, maybe among women you can find people who want to work in the ministry, but what about the real sector of the economy and production? What about mechanics, locksmiths, builders, loaders? What is the logic of first removing existing specialists, and instead spending money and time on training others with unpredictable results? Perhaps it is because all state programs are implemented at the expense of foreign donors or Ukrainian taxpayers, and civil servants do not care about the efficiency of using this money.
A great example of the effectiveness of state policy is the recent regulation of the pharmaceutical market. Under the populist slogan of preventing price increases, manufacturers were prohibited from making marketing payments to pharmacies. I don’t know exactly how it worked before, but as a result, pharmacies refused to buy cheap drugs from one of the largest Ukrainian manufacturers, which was forced to stop production and is now under threat of bankruptcy, and consumers were left without cheap drugs at all. https://komersant.ua/sklady-zapovneni-linii-stoiat-shcho-oznachaie-zupynka-darnytsi-dlia-farmatsevtychnoho-rynku-ukrainy/
On September 16, a warehouse in the Kyiv region caught fire in a logistics center due to a drone attack. Recently, attacks have also been directed at energy and logistics infrastructure. Due to the destruction of the railway, many trains are delayed, and the supply of weapons to Ukraine and exports are under threat due to the limited availability of other means of cargo transportation. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/341217-masshtabnyy-pozhar-v-kievskoy-oblasti-iz-za-vrazheskoy-ataki-goryat-sklady-logisticheskogo-tsentra-ova
The father of a Ukrainian woman who died in the United States, Stanislav Zarutsky, arrived in the United States to say goodbye to his daughter; the information that the man was not released from Ukraine is not true, said the spokesman for the State Border Service, Colonel Andriy Demchenko. He also said that he was provided with the necessary assistance in obtaining documents for entry into the country of destination, and other necessary assistance. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/09/17/7531270/
Well, it seems that the only thing the Ukrainian authorities are afraid of is publicity outside Ukraine. And this is the only thing Ukrainians who suffer from its arbitrariness can hope for.
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Last night I felt bad and went to bed early. It was the right decision, because just after midnight the drone attack started and I couldn't sleep anymore. There were a few hits in Kyiv, but it seems there were no serious consequences.
At least it's still far from total destruction like in Gaza https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c3w54gy568qt . It seems Israel will destroy Palestine before russia destroys Ukraine. An expedition of Slovaks who arrived in the West Bank is currently on the air. It is not known who issued them a license for the call sign E44OM https://www.qrz.com/db/E44OM , which they use, but it is almost impossible for me to break through those who want to make a QSO with them.
After a massive russian drone attack on Poland, many local residents have seriously considered moving abroad. Demand for foreign real estate has increased significantly over the past week, writes Gazeta Wyborcza. Real estate in Spain is in particular demand. https://krakow.wyborcza.pl/krakow/7,44425,32251065,drony-spadaja-ludzie-szukaja-domu-za-granica-za-taka-kwote.html
Meanwhile, the Council of the European Union has approved recommendations for the gradual winding down of the temporary protection program for Ukrainians. It will last until March 4, 2027. This was reported by the EU press service on Tuesday, September 16. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/09/16/protection-of-displaced-ukrainians-council-adopts-recommendation-about-transition-out-of-temporary-protection/
It seems that everyone who is able to work will be offered to stay in another status, and everyone else will be sent back to Ukraine. Perhaps Europe is already planning what to do with the next refugees from other countries.
Today three russian warplanes that violated Estonian airspace have been intercepted by Nato, the military alliance has said. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czrp6p5mj3zo
It seems that Europe still does not understand that russia will only stop where it is stopped. In this regard, a good example remains Turkey, which shot down a russian plane in 2015 and the provocations immediately stopped. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown
It is noteworthy that Turkey was not afraid of escalation nor did it ask NATO for support.
Trump is no ‘strongman’ when it comes to russia or Israel. If other democracies don’t step up, anarchy awaits, says Simon Tisdall, a columnist for The Guardian newspaper.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/sep/14/donald-trump-russia-israel-vladimir-putin-benjamin-netanyahu
Meanwhile, the appearance of American military observers at the Belarusian-russian military exercises came as an unpleasant surprise and something that seemed impossible during russia's attack on Ukraine. Belarus, which has been trying to improve relations with the United States even as it remains dependent on russia and an enabler of its war, seemed to revel in the U.S. attendance at the war games, called Zapad 2025 (West-2025). https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/world/europe/russia-belarus-zapad-2025-war-games.html
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I can't understand why the EU would set a hard deadline for Ukrainian refugees if they don't know when the war is going to end!
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I can't understand why the EU would set a hard deadline for Ukrainian refugees if they don't know when the war is going to end!
Maybe they want the war to end, or maybe they just want to change the status of refugees. Integrate and leave forever those who work and return those who are not useful. Today, Great Britain, Canada and Australia recognized a Palestinian state. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce800enrglzo
On the one hand, it is formal, but I do not exclude that it was also done with a very pragmatic purpose - to deport Palestinians to their own country.
Given that in most countries people have become commodities with a citizenship collar around their necks, and animals in the most advanced countries already have more rights than people, accounting and controlling the movement of people has become a very important task for the authorities. And digitalization is taking this process to an unprecedented level.
There are over 350 state registers in Ukraine. The government plans to consolidate information about them into a single system — the "register of registers." https://suspilne.media/981167-v-ukraini-stvorat-reestr-reestriv-v-mincifri-rozpovili-ak-vin-pracuvatime/
The Parliament adopted a law on collecting data about citizens from all registers into the Unified System of the Social Sphere. This information system will actually form a complete picture of citizens, as data will be collected from various registers, from information about the situation with a person's military registration and border crossing to their tax payments and the presence of cars, apartments, land, open enforcement proceedings, etc. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/341400-verkhovnaya-rada-prinyala-zakon-o-sbore-dannykh-o-grazhdanakh-iz-vsekh-reestrov-v-edinuyu-sistemu-sotsialnoy-sfery
As you understand, citizens' consent to the collection and disposal of information about them is not assumed, and the level of security is eloquently illustrated by a recent cases.
During the Ministry of Digital Affairs' testing of the e-notary system, it turned out that data on powers of attorney, wills, and accompanying documents became publicly available in the test version. The Notary Chamber of Ukraine stated that the leak of information from the Inheritance Register grossly violates the rights of citizens to preserve the secrecy of wills and creates real risks of unauthorized access to confidential data. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/341411-v-khode-testirovaniya-mintsifry-e-notariata-dannye-o-doverennostyakh-zaveschaniyakh-i-soprovoditelnykh-dokumentakh-popali-v-svobodnyy-dostup-npu-zayavila-o-narushenii-notarialnoy-tayny
MP Oleksandr Fedienko reported that a file with personal data of over 20 million citizens of Ukraine has been discovered in the public domain. According to him, this is an archive with citizens' data, some of which was already in the public domain through various state registers, but now this data has been collected into a single array. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/341614-lichnye-dannye-20-mln-grazhdan-slili-v-set-nardep-aleksandr-fedienko
It seems that some hackers or other individuals who had access to state registers got ahead of the authorities, and the figure of 20 million citizens indicates the real population size in Ukraine.
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Outside the window is wonderful weather and sunshine, which will soon replace the cold and rain. Again, complete uncertainty, but I believe in God and that He will again help me overcome all difficulties.
In recent days, despite frequent air alarms, Kyiv has been relatively quiet and without destruction, which cannot be said for other regions. russia is consistently attacking the energy sector and the railways, and energy workers are already asking to save electricity. I think this year the blackouts will return and be worse, since there are no more reserves.
Ukraine's air force says Moscow launched 619 drones and missiles on September 20. They hit Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy and Kharkiv regions. russia's defence ministry says its "massive strike" used "precision weapons" and targeted military-industrial facilities.
Ukraine's military said its drones struck the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in the Samara region. It also said the Saratov oil refinery was hit overnight in the neighbouring region. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3253gxqvwo
The russian army shelled Ukraine with missiles and drones on the night of September 21-22. Three people were killed in Zaporizhia and wounded in the Kyiv region. According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the russians launched 141 drones, of which 131 were shot down in the north, south, east and center of the country. Zaporizhia was attacked with aerial bombs. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ckg2ywxz7ggo
And this affects not only Ukrainian infrastructure. Foreign aid will also be greatly reduced. The political crisis in France, which may lead to a change of government, may change its attitude towards supporting Ukraine. The russians are trying to influence the results of the upcoming elections in Moldova. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g5kl0n5d2o
Also, russian provocations in Poland, Romania and the Baltic states are shifting the focus of attention of the EU and NATO to them. Money and weapons that previously went to Ukraine may now be directed to arming the countries of NATO's eastern flank.
Many analysts speculate about when russia might run out of money for the war in Ukraine, ignoring the fact that Ukraine might run out of money first, writes The Spectactor.
Kyiv has approved a draft budget for next year that includes record amounts for defense with a projected deficit of 18.4% of GDP - about 2.4 trillion hryvnias. However, according to IMF estimates, the real deficit could be about 1.1 trillion hryvnias higher. In addition, the government still has to close a hole of almost 330 billion hryvnias in the current budget.
At the same time, Ukraine spends 31% of its GDP on the war - about 5.1 trillion hryvnias per year, while russia's military budget is 13.5 trillion rubles, or 6.7 trillion hryvnias.
At the same time, Kyiv can cover only half of this amount through taxes and domestic borrowing, and the rest falls on the shoulders of allies, writes The Spectactor. At the same time, no agreements or promises have been reached yet that Ukraine's partners are ready to transfer such a huge amount. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/kyiv-is-running-out-of-money/
The effectiveness of sanctions is not only demonstrated by the amounts that Europe spends on the purchase of russian gas and oil. One in six tankers in the world is now part of the so-called russian "shadow fleet", which accounts for approximately 17% of the total number of operating tankers, The New York Times reports, citing data from research company S&P Global Market Intelligence. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/world/europe/russia-shadow-fleet-oil-sanctions-ukraine-war.html
The United States is suspending arms and military equipment sales to some European countries, including Patriot air defense systems, in an apparent bid to replenish its own stockpiles, The Atlantic reports. https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/archive/2025/09/arms-sale-europe-trump-colby-ukraine/684274/
US President's special representative Keith Kellogg said that Ukraine will have to come to terms with the reality that russia has already occupied most of Donbas. According to Kellogg, the United States promises to treat the occupied parts of Ukraine the same way it treated the Baltic states in the 1940s-80s, The Telegraph reports. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/09/19/keith-kellogg-putin-russia-ukraine-nuclear-poker-trump/
At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities entertain the people and distract them by using tear gas during mobilization and stopping traffic in the center of Kyiv every day at 09:00 for a national minute of silence. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/341532-massovaya-stychka-na-predpriyatii-v-kovele-voennye-ttsk-primenili-slezotochivyy-gaz
https://babel.ua/news/121616-hreshchatik-perekrivatimut-shchodnya-o-09-00-na-chas-zagalnonacionalnoji-hvilini-movchannya
British intelligence has announced the militarization of the russian Guard, which strengthens its ability to counter threats from the putin regime. https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1970058264193773744
Well, in this, the russians are again copying the Ukrainian authorities, which have long done this with the National Guard of Ukraine. Who would have thought that the russians would learn from Ukraine how to fight their own population.
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Autumn has already arrived and the air temperature has dropped by 10 degrees in a day. There is still no rain and under other circumstances I would not sit at home for a minute, but would go out of town or travel on a motorcycle. I attribute the deterioration of my well-being primarily to low mobility. Short walks in the nearby park in the evenings are the only available option. There is no more work either, so all that remains is to sit at home and read books and the news.
Kyiv has been quiet in recent days, and russian drone attacks are focused on frontline cities and energy and transport infrastructure.
With air and sea traffic effectively suspended, rail remains the main means of transporting passengers, commercial, and military cargo. Oleksandr Pertsovsky, the chairman of the board of the monopoly railway carrier Ukrzaliznytsia, said in an interview with Reuters that the enemy has begun a "hunt for locomotives" and electrical substations, using special drones with video guidance. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-targets-ukraines-lifeline-railways-with-systematic-attacks-ceo-says-2025-09-23/
On the night of September 23, russian forces launched an airstrike on Zaporizhia, using six high-explosive aerial bombs. Civilian infrastructure and residential buildings were hit. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1106917-rosiya-drugu-nich-pospil-atakuvala-zaporizhzhya-aviabombamy-zagynuv-cholovik
russian occupiers have also attacked infrastructure in the Kirovohrad region, delaying at least five passenger trains. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/obstril-kirovogradshchini-ukrzaliznicya-zminila-rozklad-pislya-obstriliv-50547099.html
On September 24, the russian army occupied the villages of Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk region and Novoivanivka in Zaporizhia region, and also advanced near three nearby settlements, the DeepState analytical project reported. https://gazeta.ua/articles/donbas/_rosiyani-prosunulis-u-dvoh-oblastyah-deepstate/1231018
Today, the russian occupiers launched a combined strike, including ballistics, on one of the training units of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As a result of a precise hit on the shelter, despite the security measures taken, it was not possible to completely avoid losses among the personnel. https://www.unian.ua/war/vorog-iskanderami-atakuvav-navchalniy-pidrozdil-zsu-sered-viyskovih-ye-vtrati-13141188.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
A sneaky move is to aim for the shelter because everyone will rush there after the air raid alert is announced.
Meanwhile, the russians seem to have decided to expand their provocations further into Europe. Two of Scandinavia’s busiest airports – Oslo and Copenhagen – were forced to close for several hours due to drone sightings overnight into Tuesday, disrupting the travel plans of tens of thousands of people. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/22/europe/copenhagen-oslo-airport-closed-drones-int-latam
I came across the idea that the general goal of this new trick of the rushist military with drones sent to NATO countries is to scare the population of those countries so that they start putting pressure on their governments. And here there may be slightly different tasks - Norway allocates 8 billion dollars in military aid to Ukraine, and the Kremlin is trying to reduce this figure in such a primitive way.
Drones were sent to Copenhagen - they want Denmark not to even come close to blocking the important Danish straits, through which a large part of oil from russia is transported for sale by tankers.
They want Poland to close the hubs and routes of communication with Ukraine, primarily for military cargo.
They want the same from Romania, plus reduce Western influence on the upcoming elections in Moldova.
Hungary and Slovakia are already in Moscow's team, and now it will be easier for them to sing along with russia, using the events around them.
They don't throw anything from the drone fleet against Sweden or Finland, because the internal views of the population there are almost 100% anti-russian and they can't be changed so easily, so they don't spend unnecessary effort on it. In addition, among the population of the russians themselves, puten continues to gain points as a powerful warrior.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in an interview with Fox News that he does not believe in a quick end to the russian-Ukrainian war and expressed doubts about the duration of economic support for Ukraine from European countries. According to the Turkish president, Ukraine “is not able to compete with russia” economically, and Europe will not be able to provide economic assistance to Ukraine forever. https://www.foxnews.com/video/6379948548112
The International Monetary Fund has persuaded Ukraine’s government to significantly increase its projections of additional funding the country will need through the end of 2027 in the face of protracted russia’s invasion, according to people familiar with the matter. Kyiv initially estimated the gap in foreign financing at almost $38 billion, but the discussions with the IMF have lifted the figure to around $65 billion, according to the officials, reports Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-22/ukraine-accepts-imf-forecast-of-bigger-65-billion-financing-gap
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It's quiet and sunny in Kyiv. The temperature is +14C and there is electricity. Something tells me that I will still remember these wonderful times.
Ukraine and russia continue to be bombarded with air strikes. At night, shelling led to the loss of power to four railway sections and damage to infrastructure in Ukraine, train delays were recorded. https://unn.ua/news/na-zaliznytsi-znestrumlennia-cherez-vorozhi-obstrily-zatrymky-nyzky-poizdiv-siahaiut-5-hodyn
In the Zaporizhia direction, the Ukrainian military managed to shoot down a russian Su-34 aircraft.
https://24tv.ua/ukrayinski-viyskovi-zbili-vorozhiy-su-34_n2921217
The Ukrainian Defense Forces in Crimea have destroyed two Be-12 amphibious aircraft and one Mi-8 helicopter, whose main function is to patrol the coastal waters. The systematic destruction of coastal radar stations that monitor the maritime situation is also underway. All this should simplify the movement of Ukrainian naval drones in the Black Sea. https://ua.krymr.com/a/ataky-zsu-krym-litaky-amfibiyi-morski-drony-perspektyvy/33538734.html
Key russian ports on the Black Sea have halted oil shipments after Ukrainian drone attacks on Novorossiysk and Tuapse. https://delo.ua/news/droni-zupinili-robotu-dvox-naftovix-portiv-rosiyi-na-cornomu-mori-452914/
Ukrainian military personnel have struck a number of energy and production facilities in russia as part of measures to weaken its "military-economic potential," the General Staff of the Armed Forces reported on September 24. These are factories producing explosives, drone parts, and oil refining complexes. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-komanduvannia-naslidky-ostanikh-udariv-obiekty-rosii/33539734.html
On Wednesday, September 24, the authorities of the russian city of Novorossiysk announced an attack by drones and naval drones on the city and the main base of the russian Black Sea Fleet. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/09/24/novyna/svit/novorosijsku-drony-atakuvaly-bazu-chornomorskoho-flotu-rf-ye-zahybli
All these attacks are, of course, painful for russia, but not at all critical, while Ukraine faces deepening military, political and economic problems. Ukraine is fighting bravely against Russia, but the brunt of the war has fallen on the shoulders of its people, while the government has been mired in political squabbles. Compared to what could have happened, Ukraine’s resilience is still impressive. Three and a half years later, russia has suffered a military defeat, even if Ukraine is also bleeding. putin has not even managed to capture Kharkiv, which is only 35 km from the border, let alone Kyiv. Ukraine is holding on because its people insisted on it. Much of the country’s security backbone was formed independently of — and often in defiance of — a weak state. The problem, however, is that russia often copies and then mass-produces Ukrainian innovations faster than Ukraine itself can do it. Meanwhile, mobilization is becoming increasingly difficult and rigid. There are also problems with democracy. Trust between the government and society is undermined. Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rise as a cult hero in the West has fueled his arrogance. He has begun to believe in his destiny. https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/09/23/ukraine-faces-deepening-military-political-and-economic-problems
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected accusations of monopolizing power and disdain for parliament in an interview with Fox News https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXllm_xHNuQ . The journalist quoted Zelensky from a Politico article that said there was growing discontent within his Servant of the People party over “Zelensky’s highly personalized management style, tendency to disdain parliament, and moves against anti-corruption agencies.” https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-servant-of-the-people-party/?reg-wall=true
Interestingly, Zelensky told the Americans that he was ready for elections if security was ensured, although the authorities told the Ukrainians that they were impossible due to the war. But it seems that the authorities are not ready to give up power. Some of them have already begun to compare themselves to gods.
First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov stated in an interview with "Armia TV" published on September 22 that the work of a minister is "divine." "I have such a job that you are first and foremost... In general, you know, ministerial work is a kind of divine work, because you design the rules of the game. What other job is there where you create the rules of the game for millions of people? That's where God is and I don't know who else is. So it's actually a job that is quite interesting," Fedorov said. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePBwCKgrdrg&t=1180s
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On the other hand, the probability of a violent change of power in Ukraine is very small for several reasons. Some believe that to repeat the Maidan, which was in 2014, there was not enough people's discontent, external and internal organizers, money, militants, etc. are needed. In their opinion, the situation looks like this.
External factors, our "partners". They don't need that now, because the Ukrainian authorities are fulfilling the task of burning Ukrainians in the war, which gives them time to become more prepared for a serious confrontation with the russian federation. After the parade in Beijing and a more confident broadcast of the russian federation's intentions, the "partners" are already clear that it, a hot confrontation, will happen, it is not clear in what form. Therefore, the "Ukraine testing ground" and the "Ukraine buffer zone" according to their plans should perform their functions of practicing counteraction to russian weapons and tactics for as long as possible. In parallel, cashback schemes and other lobbying for the production and sale of weapons to Ukraine have already been rolled out, so everyone is doing well. And if the Ukrainian authorities do something wrong or steal a lot, then no one has put the cardboards away - students will wave them again in front of the government building. And of course, sometimes they will, like yesterday in Politico, give them a slap in the face, reminding them of their place.
Internal organizers - here the regime has already come to its senses and reacted in time. Media soldiers (not barbershop clowns, but talented organizers) all received their benefits, and are temporarily loyal to the regime. (Here I have to explain some expressions generated by the war. A barbershop warrior is a person who tries to look like a real soldier who does not shave while being in the trenches for many days. But such people, dressed in camouflage clothes and with a glamorous beard, look more funny than severe). Radicals also receive benefits, tamed and loyal, at the moment, of course. The opposition is ridiculous and helpless. The special services manage to collect money from business, and absorb the budget, and catch spies, and they also destroy russians in large quantities. So the special services are in good shape, loyal more or less - a very important factor against a full-fledged Maidan. Self-organization of people: "The military administration will not agree, and without it there is no way." And also, all men from 25 to 60 years old (and then maybe from 22 (18) to 60) risk getting into a mobilization center on the way to the Maidan venue. Coming to Kyiv for help through checkpoints? Very funny. As they say: "Revolutions are made in capitals, in the provinces it is a riot."
The war factor is also very important, although these scoundrels have already fucked everyone up to ravings, but all sensible citizens understand that there is a chance to miss the front during the unrest, and get a russian regime instead of the Zelensky regime, a kind of change, it's not worth it.
Yes, we have a problem with the front, it has already been officially estimated that 200 thousand have voluntarily left the units and 50 thousand deserted, something like that ... And the russians can still add resources to themselves through allies and mobilization, and add quite a lot so that we will immediately feel very bad ...
Therefore, in the near future we will receive (and are already receiving), of course, if we have time:
- training society in new rituals to increase loyalty and weaken resistance, perhaps "two minutes hate" will be introduced;
- lowering the mobilization age, removing reservations and even from "conyo boy";
- raising taxes and possibly (but not definitely) transferring the economy to military rails;
- several high-profile demonstrative (then they will probably be released) anti-corruption cases and "moving beds".
Of course, such conclusions are only one of the options for the development of events, provided that the situation slowly develops in the same direction, but this does not mean that tomorrow something can change and everything will suddenly turn upside down again as it has happened in the past.
I even heard such a radical idea that the introduction of a traffic stop in the center every day is the first step of technology to turn Ukrainians into cattle. Today you become an entire country for a minute every day, and tomorrow you will be forced to carry a portrait of the Fuhrer and kneel for five minutes and kiss that portrait. And then you will walk in formation and shout "Glory to the Fuhrer, glory to Ukraine". Of course, I do not believe that this is possible in Ukraine, but one story alarmed me.
Kyiv businessman Artur Ponomarev was outraged by the blocking of Khreshchatyk during the minute of silence, calling it a “show-off.” After the criticism, he apologized and assured that he supported Ukraine and was not against commemorating those killed in russian aggression. He later posted several more videos in which he said that he was receiving insults and threats, in particular that he and his loved ones would be sent to war. In addition, he received phone calls from the military, with whom he spoke and "explained his position", as well as employees of the Security Service of Ukraine who came to conduct a "preventive conversation". https://hromadske.ua/kyyiv/251929-biznesmen-iz-kyyeva-iakyy-nazvav-khvylynu-movchannia-na-khreshchatyku-prymusovoiu-pokazukhoiu-rozpoviv-pro-vizyt-sbu-i-pohrozy-sluzboiu
The point is not even that it is impossible to force people to be patriots or to respect something, but that once again we are most likely dealing with a crude and primitive manipulation to distract people's attention from something else, for example, from the advancement of the russians at the front or blatant corruption. In any case, I would not like Ukraine to turn into a russia in which any disagreement with the authorities ends badly.
Meanwhile, the influence of the state on everything is growing rapidly and the courts are increasingly taking the side of the state when it comes to restricting the rights and freedoms of citizens.
The Supreme Court confirmed that despite the fact that the law "On the Procedure for Citizens' Departure from Ukraine" does not contain restrictions on the right to freely leave Ukraine under martial law, this does not mean that such restrictions cannot be applied on the basis of special laws. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/341821-verkhovnyy-sud-to-chto-zakon-o-poryadke-vyezda-iz-ukrainy-grazhdan-ne-soderzhit-ogranicheniy-prava-svobodno-pokidat-ukrainu-v-usloviyakh-voennogo-polozheniya-ne-oznachaet-chto-takie-ogranicheniya-ne-mogut-primenyatsya-na-osnovanii-spetsialnykh-zakonov
I don't know why the deputies simply won't change the relevant laws, but when they need to, everything is done quite quickly.
It is also proposed to amend the law "On the Legal Regime of Martial Law", according to which the head of the military administration will be able to prematurely terminate the powers or dismiss local government officials. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/341753-nachalnik-voennoy-administratsii-smozhet-dosrochno-prekraschat-polnomochiya-dolzhnostnykh-lits-mestnogo-samoupravleniya-izmeneniya-v-zakon-o-voennom-polozhenii
Foreign investors will be able to be checked for integrity and compliance with national interests by the Ministry of Economy and a commission with representatives of law enforcement agencies. The draft law on screening foreign direct investments has been registered in parliament. It proposes to protect Ukrainian enterprises in strategic areas from being controlled by foreign investors, to introduce an assessment of the impact of foreign investments on national interests and security, and to take into account the factors of integrity and reliability of the investor. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/341837-inostrannykh-investorov-smogut-proveryat-na-dobroporyadochnost-i-sootvetstvie-natsionalnym-interesam-minekonomiki-i-komissiya-s-predstavitelyami-sbu-svr-i-mid
I would like to believe that these measures will be aimed at preventing russians from entering Ukraine, but won't this lead to even greater corruption and make it more difficult to invest in Ukraine?
The total digitalization that the government is trying to implement is bringing a unique vibe to the country's life. For example, the digital interface of the registry, which is used to keep records of those liable for military service, is regularly out of order. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/341774-u-rezerv-cherez-tekhnichni-problemi-nemozhlivo-onoviti-dani-ta-nadislati-zapiti
But this is the very program that records violations of military registration, a person being wanted, and because of mistakes in which anyone can receive a fine or be detained. Needless to say, in cases of such mistakes, no one compensates for the harm caused to people?
The Ministry of Digital Transformation is also actively working on creating a national language model (LLM) and a chatbot Diya.AI (mobile app, a web portal and a brand of e-governance in Ukraine. The Diia portal allows access to over 130 government services.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diia
In total, the technical product team across all areas has 15 people. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/341776-bezopasnost-ostaetsya-postoyannym-vyzovom-v-mintsifry-obyasnili-kak-rabotayut-s-personalnymi-dannymi-pri-sozdanii-natsionalnoy-llm-modeli-i-diyaai
I don't even want to comment on this.
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Hi everyone! Sorry that I haven’t commented in a while. I’ve been very busy.
I was helping my disabled son and girlfriend to locate, lease and move into a different apartment in another nearby city. Also I had to complete many chores and projects before having laparoscopic surgery yesterday to repair an inquinal hernia. There is a 6 week recovery period, during which I plan to participate much more regularly.
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Jaye,
it was good to read your post. Your love and devotion to your friend in advocating and pushing for good treatment is inspiring especially given your own health struggle. I hope a better treatment for you will be found soon that doesn’t cause so much fatigue.
So nice to hear about your little cat family! Pets are wonderful for our spirits and mental health. We are searching for a suitable dog now after losing our Labrador to a sudden aggressive cancer a few months ago.
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Glad to see you again! I am sorry for the dog. It's hard to lose your beloved pets. Because of this, I decided not to even get hamsters anymore. It's good that you've improved your health. This is the main thing I'm struggling with here with varying success. I managed to control my high blood pressure with medication, but for two weeks I suffered from headaches of unknown origin. The only thing that helped was getting more sleep, although I was constantly having strange dreams. It's impossible to work in this state. Yesterday I went to bed at 9 pm and today I woke up at 9 am. So far, my head doesn't hurt and I'm writing using this.
Seva defended his diploma yesterday and is going to return to Ukraine. Apparently, he hopes to take the place of those who are leaving it. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3e7dzwl1eko
He chose an interesting time for this. russia has finally decided to move forward at any cost and judging by their official propaganda they consider this to be the only goal of a state fighting for its existence. russia's defense spending to remain high over the next three years. https://24tv.ua/economy/vitrati-viynu-chomu-rosiya-ne-planuye-yih-skorochuvati-nastupni_n2922224
Although if we take into account their population of around 150 million people on a vast territory, as well as their total technological backwardness, they cannot compete with any of their possible rivals - the USA or Europe, and even less so neighboring China. So it seems to me that de facto Russia should be considered only as a vassal of China, which uses it in its own interests. But this in no way makes the fate of Ukraine easier, on whose territory the interests of the West and the East have now collided. And if globally everyone understands the weakness of russia, which can threaten the world only with nuclear weapons, then locally it also outweighs the much weaker Ukraine. And for the inhabitants of Ukraine this is of direct importance. Perhaps russia understands that sooner or later it will lose its east, so there is logic in its desire to expand westward. The fact that it is building large fortifications in the occupied east of Ukraine is reminiscent of the ancient Romans building fortresses in conquered territories. But where are those Romans now?
Zaluzhny published an article in which he gave his vision of the situation at the front. In his opinion, there is indeed a positional deadlock, but there is a steady tendency to break out of it from russia. He admits that death, injury, or mental breakdown are in fact inevitable consequences of a long stay on the front line in modern conditions. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/rol-innovatsij-jak-osnovi-stratehiji-stijkoho-oporu-u-pozbavlenni-rosiji-mozhlivosti-navjazuvati-svoji-umovi-cherez-vijnu.html But all his reasoning does not go beyond the fact that someone should weaken russia and provide Ukraine with a technological advantage. Indeed, it is better to be healthy and rich than poor and sick.
Similarly, Zelensky asks Trump for Tomahawk missiles, but is silent about the widely advertised Ukrainian Flamingo missiles. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/09/26/zelensky-asks-trump-tomahawk-missiles-private-meeting/ Was I right when I said that the Flamingo would turn out to be nothing more than a pink painted Tomahawk? So no Tomahawks and no Flamingos.
US President Donald Trump told his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky that he is ready to lift the ban on strikes with American weapons on russian territory, writes the Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-told-zelensky-he-was-open-to-providing-new-long-range-weapons-officials-say-b9cfabf4 But I think these are just empty words, like much else that Trump says.
Meanwhile, russia announced strikes by russian drones on NATO facilities in Romania and Poland and in advance laid the responsibility for them on Ukraine. The corresponding statement was made by the official spokesperson of the russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova. Referring to the Hungarian media, she said that Ukraine was allegedly preparing a provocation with the aim of drawing NATO into a direct war with russia. According to her, the "plan of the Kyiv regime" is to repair several captured russian drones, fill them with explosives and launch them at major NATO transport hubs in Poland and Romania. https://uazmi.org/news/post/10012e28db23d3386df18d53caf88dc7
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Another sleepless night due to a major attack on Kyiv. The barrage - involving nearly 600 drones and several dozen missiles aimed at seven regions of Ukraine - is one of the heaviest in recent months. There were both direct hits by 31 drones and 5 missiles of various types, and a lot of destruction due to falling debris. In addition to the usual buzzing of drones and the hum of missiles flying overhead, this time there were new sounds from the work of air defense. There were no hits in my area, but explosions in other areas of the city were clearly audible. Overall, given that there is still electricity and water, such strikes on Kyiv are not very effective.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75qeqr5905o
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cvgv1n2nxy2o
https://glavred.net/war/popala-na-foto-v-vozdushnyh-silah-nazvali-osobennost-udara-rf-po-kievu-10701977.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
In Vinnytsia region, critical infrastructure and a residential building were damaged as a result of a massive russian attack on the night of Saturday, September 27. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/udar-po-vinnickiy-oblasti-ye-vluchannya-v-kritichnu-infrastrukturu-ruh-potyagiv-vidnovili-50548366.html
For the second day in a row, the russians have been shelling Chernihiv and the region, including critical infrastructure in the region. As a result, many people have been left without electricity, there are disruptions to transport, and residents are being asked to stock up on water. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cqxzyzxnp1do
If the russian federation threatens to blackout Kyiv, then russians should know that in response, a blackout will also occur in Moscow, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/342178-vladimir-zelenskiy-esli-rf-ugrozhaet-blekautom-kievu-moskva-takzhe-ostanetsya-bez-sveta Let's see how he fulfills another promise.
However, Mr Zelensky has acknowledged that liberating occupied territories by armed force is no longer possible and diplomatic options would need to be pursued.
Only a quarter of Ukrainians want to fight russia to the end, according to a Gallup poll published on Thursday, revealing the public’s plummeting belief in achieving victory. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/07/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-zelensky/
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, has stated that near Dobropillya in the Pokrovske direction, where russian troops managed to penetrate Ukrainian defenses a month ago, the russians are "trapped" and "sitting in a bag."
As a source in the military command told BBC News Ukraine, the actions of the Ukrainian army in this direction are the "counteroffensive" that, as American media wrote, was recently reported to Donald Trump. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cy7pmy03dxpo
I would listen to his statements with great caution, given the previous "success" of the offensive in the Kursk region of ussia, which ended in nothing, but a large number of people and equipment were lost.
There will be a new branch of the armed forces in Ukraine. Although this was announced directly by President Volodymyr Zelensky, they are already called the "personal guard" and "fire brigade" of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky, writes BBC. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cwyl88ke0xjo
As of September 2025, the following types and branches of the armed forces exist in Ukraine: Ground, Air, Naval, and Airborne Assault Forces, Signal Forces plus the Terroir Defense Forces, Unmanned Systems Forces, Special Operations Forces, Medical Forces, Support Forces, and Logistics Forces. Now the Assault Forces are being added to them.
We must not forget that each of these military organisms has its own command, budget, and a certain level of autonomy.
Some believe that the idea of creating a "personal guard" appeared in the commander-in-chief last summer, when Syrsky unexpectedly encountered resistance from some commanders of the Airborne Assault Forces, who did not understand the expediency of the Kursk operation. The way out of the situation for the commander-in-chief was the creation of absolutely loyal assault units that are ready to perform the most difficult tasks, including on the territory of the russian federation, without any unnecessary questions.
The commander-in-chief appeals to the high efficiency that the assault units have demonstrated this year. That is why they must be scaled up to a separate branch of the troops, he believes.
In his opinion, they cannot be attached to the Airborne Assault Forces, because, despite the similarity of their names, they currently perform completely different functions on the battlefield.
Perhaps the main problem remains where to get enough brave and trained stormtroopers, whose life expectancy is on average several months, since the effectiveness of these units is directly related to the rigid style of command and excessively high losses.
Meanwhile, mobilization in Ukraine sometimes takes strange forms, which does not increase the number of those wishing to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The fact that mobilization is sometimes a form of punishment and persecution, even of lawyers, has long been no surprise to anyone. https://unba.org.ua/news/10736-tisk-cherez-mobilizaciyu-ta-kriminal-ni-spravi-hto-zahistit-advokativ.html
Meanwhile, mobilization in Ukraine sometimes takes strange forms, which does not increase the number of those wishing to join the Armed Forces.
The fact that mobilization is sometimes a form of punishment and persecution, even of lawyers, has long been no surprise to anyone.
The case of the mobilization of the sole caregiver of a seriously ill 82-year-old bedridden father, who was unable to submit the necessary documents to the mobilization center due to the reorganization of another state body that did not issue the necessary certificate in time, ended relatively well. He was temporarily released to complete the documents. They say that this story became known throughout Ukraine because the hungry cows and other domestic animals, which were also left without care, made a fuss. Perhaps they saved the old man's life when the neighbors heard the noise. https://hromadske.ua/rehiony/252111-mene-povely-do-nachalnyka-ttsk-ale-po-dorozi-zakryly-mobilizovanoho-syna-cholovika-z-invalidnistiu-tymchasovoho-vidpustyly
A less well-known story is that of a girl who has been sitting for several days near the mobilization center where her husband was taken. https://24tv.ua/divchina-nochuye-pid-ttsk-cherez-mobilizatsiyu-cholovika-video_n2921638
But what I liked most was the information from one lawyer, who was contacted by people who suddenly found out that they had already been mobilized without their knowledge. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9iJei-v1kM
Mobilization rules change so often that it is difficult even for lawyers to keep up with them. Not so long ago, the authorities decided to automatically register all men in absentia based on data from various registers, which were often outdated and erroneous. Because of this, many men learned firsthand what it was like to be an enemy of the state, as in the 1998 film of the same name, since any discrepancy in data was used against people who received fines and ended up on the wanted list.
But this time, some men discovered that their status had changed from "conscript" to "military serviceman" and they were supposedly already serving in the army as soldiers. A direct consequence of this could be criminal prosecution as deserters if the police met them and decided to check their documents. After all, it will be very difficult to prove that this person was never mobilized at all, and did not desert. In a country obsessed with digitalization, what matters now is what is entered into the electronic register, and not what actually exists. Maybe this is a technical error, or maybe it was done intentionally, because a salary is accrued for each such fictitious soldier and someone can get crazy money instead of them. No one knows how many such phantom battalions are already "fighting" in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
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Wlad, I’m glad you are feeling a bit better! Sleep is SO important but is not given enough credit and priority in our modern, clock-driven world. (I don’t get enough of it myself because of waking to go to the toilet and also common sleep pattern issues in the elderly.)
Good news that Seva finished school! However I’m not sure how to feel about to his plan to come back to Ukraine. Of course it would be great for you to be with each other, and for him to be back in his own country, but wouldn’t he be trapped and subject to mobilization in just a couple of years?
I agree that Russia is in many ways a vassal to China now. A big impediment to China retaking lands ceded to Russia in the 1800’s is that Russia has key pacific fleet and nuclear sub bases there so Russia won’t simply walk away from them.
China’s primary territorial goal is to recover Taiwan, and sooner rather than later. Would the isolationist, vacillating and feckless Trump come to Taiwan’s defense? I doubt it. China taking Taiwan seems to be inevitable eventually anyway.
On Trump saying he is “ready” to lift long range weapons restrictions on Ukraine: He is always saying things that might sound reassuring but fall far short of committment. It’s a very typical ploy of his to string people along while avoiding a decision for which he would have to accept the consequences, good or bad.
PS: My wife had a good analogy for this tactic of Trump’s. It’s like making a cat chase the bright spot of a laser pointer. There’s actually nothing physical there, it only looks like it to the cat.
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I am concerned that he only received a bachelor's degree and does not want to continue his studies to get a master's degree. I cannot understand this, because for me education is the highest value, which, by the way, is always with you, unlike material things that can be lost very easily and quickly.
Maybe this is connected with the new values of the new generation. He told me something about the senselessness of planning in a world full of uncertainty. But since it was never possible to convince him of anything, I do not even try to do this. I have expressed my opinion on everything and how I would have acted. Next, he is responsible for his actions and life.
As for the Chinese, I've heard a lot of stories and seen those short videos showing the quiet penetration of the Chinese into the russian Far East. There are already many settlements exclusively made up of Chinese, and in the surrounding russian cities, most of the goods were imported from China, and even those made locally have inscriptions in Chinese hieroglyphs. It's interesting that the local russians are learning Chinese, and not the other way around.
Trump, on the other hand, remains surprisingly consistent. He does not prevent the russians from advancing towards seemingly pre-agreed borders.
Despite the sharp deterioration in the attitude towards Ukrainians within Poland, the Polish authorities are not so crazy as not to understand that the defeat of Ukraine will move the front to its territory.
The President of Poland has signed a law to continue funding the subscription fee for Starlink terminals in Ukraine. This technology is critical for maintaining communications in hospitals, schools and frontline regions. https://unn.ua/news/polshcha-prodovzhyt-finansuvannia-starlink-dlia-ukrainy
Without firing a shot, russian President Vladimir putin has over the past week managed to bring the war in Ukraine to millions of Europeans largely untouched by the conflict, writes CNN, commenting on numerous drone provocations in the skies of Europe and other signs of hybrid warfare. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/27/europe/putin-hybrid-war-europe-risks-intl
The amount of the European Union's "reparation loan" for Ukraine could be up to 130 billion euros. The final amount will be agreed with the International Monetary Fund, Reuters writes, citing officials. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eu-reparations-loan-ukraine-could-be-up-130-billion-euros-officials-say-2025-09-24/
Meanwhile, Ukraine's total public and state-guaranteed debt as of the end of August reached $192.71 billion, an increase of $6.58 billion over the month, according to the Ministry of Finance. https://epravda.com.ua/finances/yakiy-derzhavniy-borg-ukrajini-stanom-na-serpen-2025-812207/
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The air temperature in Ukraine has dropped and the russians have predictably focused on destroying Ukraine's energy sector. In recent days, many settlements in eastern and northern Ukraine have been without power.
A partial power outage occurred in Dnipro - before the power went out, the city was illuminated by a bright flash of blue. Similar problems were also recorded in Zaporizhia. https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-glavnaya/communalka/v-dnipri-vidklyuchilosya-svitlo-pislya-zagadkovogo-spalahu-scho-kazhut-energetiki.htm
Part of the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions was also left without electricity. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c20v2ev8nj0o
On the night of Wednesday, October 1, russian forces launched a massive attack on Kharkiv and its suburbs, using both guided aerial bombs (GABs) and missiles. The strike resulted in destruction of civilian infrastructure, fires, and, according to preliminary data, six civilian casualties. https://apostrophe.ua/ua/news/society/accidents/2025-10-01/rosiya-atakuvala-harkiv-ta-peredmistya--ye-postrazhdali-ruynuvannya-ta-pozhezhi/352816
Also they launched 49 drones, one anti-ship missile, and four ballistic missiles into Ukrainian territory, and air defense forces managed to neutralize 46 UAVs. The missiles were not shot down. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1108640-vnochi-rf-vdaryla-po-ukrayini-balistychnymy-raketamy-zbyty-yih-ne-vdalosya
russian drones have begun attacking moving targets. Drones with night cameras have struck a moving Ukrainian railway train: the UAVs have night optics, a guidance system and communication for hundreds of kilometers. An Nvidia mini-computer capable of simultaneously processing video and identifying targets was found among the wreckage. https://militarnyi.com/uk/news/novi-rosijski-shahedy-rozbyly-ukrayinskyj-zaliznychnyj-eshelon-na-chernigivshhyni/
Ukraine continues to attack factories and oil refining facilities in western russia. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/nps-rostovskiy-oblasti-zupinila-robotu-pislya-1759315188.html
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/bryanskiy-oblasti-raketna-nebezpeka-ta-pozhezha-1759108589.html
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I had a similar discussion with my older son. He chose to study electrical engineering but decided against the baccalaureate plus masters program at the cost of only one more year in school despite my advice. (EE was also my profession, but I did not encourage him in that direction. Genetics? - lol).
Of course there ample reasons for Putin to intimidate Europe, but is it mere coincidence that the “mysterious” drone flights into EU countries began around the time that EU are seriously preparing for reparations payments from impounded Russian funds, and that Putin warned that doing so would trigger retaliatory actions?
Ah yes, reliable Trump. I would say he is “steadfastly feckless”. I don’t see him confronting Putin in any effective or military way unless forced to by events that even he cannot ignore or weasel his way around.
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The consequences of provocations can really be different. It seems to me that their main goal, after all, is to feel the limit where NATO will really begin to respond. And so far, EU leaders at a meeting in Copenhagen on Wednesday, October 1, were unable to make progress on the issue of providing Ukraine with a loan worth 140 billion euros from frozen russian assets, as Belgium refused to lift its objection, and France and Luxembourg expressed concerns about the legal consequences, the FT reports. https://www.ft.com/content/214dc782-8900-4531-87ac-3f01e7221849
Meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels on Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said a European anti-drone system should be built as part of a larger plan to strengthen security and surveillance at the borders, known as “Guardian of the Eastern Flank.” https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c9dx3g43vqgo
It seems that Europe has realized the need to restore its military potential. Especially since the russian occupation army has modernized its Iskander-M ballistic missiles, which has created serious difficulties for Ukraine. Patriot can no longer effectively shoot down russian missiles. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/rosiya-zmogla-modifikuvati-raketi-shchob-obkhoditi-ukrainsku-ppo-financial-times
In Ukraine, mobilization remains a complex issue. On the one hand, the authorities claim to be satisfied with it and are calling up 30,000 men per month. https://24tv.ua/mobilizatsiya-ukrayini-skilki-lyudey-mobilizuyut-shhomisyatsya_n2925655 Since demobilization has not occurred and is not expected even if the war ends, this can be considered a level of personnel losses.
The military considers it ineffective due to the low level of training and motivation, which leads to desertion and losses. This issue could be solved by monetary motivation and fixed terms of service, but the authorities are not considering it. https://gazeta.ua/articles/life/_komandir-rozvidki-pro-masshtab-problemi-szc-ta-neobhidni-zmini-v-armiyi/1231767
Some naive people even think that it is necessary to create a new army in parallel. They propose to take, for example, the popular commander and his corps and start expanding.
But they forget that one of the greatest victories of the regime at the beginning of the war can be considered the destruction of powerful nationalist independent units like the Right Sector or Azov and the dissolution of all the others in what turned into a small Soviet army. Although it was they who showed the most impressive results in battle.
Therefore, for now, we continue to see videos of police officers and representatives of mobilization centers catching, beating, and forcibly taking people away on the streets for forced mobilization https://life.kyiv.ua/news/skandal-u-ki%D1%94vi-merezheyu-shiritsya-video-de-policeyskiy-z-nogi-b%CA%BC%D1%94-cholovika-ta , and read news stories of them also being beaten and stabbed in response. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/u-krivomu-rozi-cholovik-poraniv-nozhem-dvokh-viiskovikh-ttsk-odin-u-vazhkomu-stani
Meanwhile, the police (which cannot be mobilized) recruited an additional 1,700 officers to schools. https://unn.ua/news/ponad-1700-ofitseriv-sluzhby-osvitnoi-bezpeky-vzhe-pratsiuiut-u-shkolakh-mvs
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The enemy attacks Ukraine every day with missiles and hundreds of drones, mainly targeting the energy sector. After the shelling of Chernihiv region at the beginning of the week, on the night of Thursday to Friday, Poltava region came under a powerful air strike. Energy and gas production are under attack. https://mind.ua/news/20295349-vorog-usyu-nich-i-ranok-atakuvav-ukrayinu-raketami-j-dronami
https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/ataka-na-poltavsku-oblast-rosiya-vdarila-po-energetici-raketami-ta-dronami-novini-poltavi-50549747.html
https://uatv.ua/uk/416-zasobamy-povitryanogo-napadu-vdaryla-rf-po-ukrayini-osnovna-tsil-krytychna-infrastruktura-ps-zsu/
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cjd1g13g4e2o
https://babel.ua/news/121918-rosiya-zdiysnila-naymasovanishu-ataku-na-gazovidobuvnu-infrastrukturu-ukrajini-z-pochatku-viyni
Part of Donetsk region also has been left without electricity due to enemy shelling. In particular, all of Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka, as well as some areas of Kramatorsk, were left without electricity. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/kramatorsk-slov-yansk-i-druzhkivka-chastkovo-1759511359.html
The russian army has occupied three more villages in the Dnipropetrovsk region, the DeepState project reports. This is the next region where russian troops are operating. https://www.unian.ua/war/rosiyani-okupuvali-odrazu-tri-novi-naseleni-punkti-deepstate-13149948.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
International partners finance the salaries of officials, but have not yet agreed to finance the salaries of the military, which is why the authorities want to limit the salaries of officials to 80 thousand UAH (almost 2 thousand dollars) in order to ensure an increase in the salaries of the military. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/342709-mezhdunarodnye-partnery-finansiruyut-zarplaty-chinovnikov-no-poka-ne-soglasilis-finansirovat-zarplaty-voennykh-mozhet-li-sokraschenie-okladov-dolzhnostnykh-lits-do-80-tysyach-obespechit-uvelichenie-zarplat-voennykh
In June, the European Union adopted a framework decision to reduce electricity prices to support industry. The plan is to reduce the price to 50 Euros per MWh. At the same time, the cost of electricity in Ukraine is constantly growing and currently stands at about $180 per MWh. In this regard, investing in Ukraine for the development of production looks even more inexpedient. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1109195-vtrychi-deshevshe-nizh-v-ukrayini-yes-znyzyt-tsinu-na-elektryku-do-50-yevro-shhob-pidtrymaty-svoyu
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The consequences of provocations can really be different. It seems to me that their main goal, after all, is to feel the limit where NATO will really begin to respond. And so far, EU leaders at a meeting in Copenhagen on Wednesday, October 1, were unable to make progress on the issue of providing Ukraine with a loan worth 140 billion euros from frozen russian assets, as Belgium refused to lift its objection, and France and Luxembourg expressed concerns about the legal consequences, the FT reports. https://www.ft.com/content/214dc782-8900-4531-87ac-3f01e7221849
I heard that Rutte had a shouting match with Estonia's leader about that state calling for Article 4 consultations too often - fearing that Article 4 will lose its shock value. I would say that has already happened. If it had any shock value to begin with, there wouldn't be a Russian incursion into Estonian airspace every day or two! Apparently Rutte wants to do anything other than actually SHOOT THE RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT DOWN when it enters NATO. I jokingly suggest Rutte craft an Article 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, and so on so that he can see a dozen more incursions before actually taking action.
Article 4 has become like Putin's nuclear threats - meaningless.
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I heard that Rutte had a shouting match with Estonia's leader about that state calling for Article 4 consultations too often - fearing that Article 4 will lose its shock value. I would say that has already happened. If it had any shock value to begin with, there wouldn't be a Russian incursion into Estonian airspace every day or two! Apparently Rutte wants to do anything other than actually SHOOT THE RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT DOWN when it enters NATO. I jokingly suggest Rutte craft an Article 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, and so on so that he can see a dozen more incursions before actually taking action.
Article 4 has become like Putin's nuclear threats - meaningless.
There is much truth in your joke.
Each member nation, and NATO as a whole, should take a lesson from Turkey and declare that incursions of their airspace, manned or unmanned, will be met with deadly force on a case by case basis at the discretion of each nation acting independently or in concert with others.
NATO and each member nation should be racing to support Ukrainian defense industries to ramp up production of the systems already proven in use there to detect and disrupt or intercept drones, and also make them in Europe under license.
My late father-in-law fought Nazis with the US 3rd Army and also served in Korea. He told a story about the the Turks in the UN encampment he was assigned to in Korea which I find relevant to this discussion.
There were groups of Korean boys who would sneak into the camps and steal anything they could use or sell, typically personal property of soldiers like shaving kit, clothing, items sent from home, etc. The US, UK, and Australians would occasionally catch some of the boys and rough them up but they would soon be back.
The Turks tried that for a time but soon switched to a much more effective method. One morning the severed heads of two of the boys were on pikes at the entrance to their camp, thus ending the thievery there.
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There are different opinions in Ukraine about the true effectiveness of anti-drone defense.
With the onset of cold weather, russia has expectedly intensified attacks on Ukraine's energy sector, but they are also destroying logistics and production facilities.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czjvlgzmp4wo
russia realizes that time is against them. Against this background, they will intensify their shelling of Ukraine and talk about how "omnipotent" they are, said Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine's foreign minister from 2014 to 2019. https://24tv.ua/masovana-ataka-po-ukrayini-klimkin-pripustiv-shho-obstrili-budut_n2927587
The supply of long-range systems, in particular Tomahawks, to Ukraine will lead to the destruction of the positive trends that have emerged in relations between russia and the United States, putin said. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/10/05/8001296/
On the night of today, October 5, russia massively attacked Zaporizhia and its suburbs with strike drones and guided aerial bombs (GABs). Hits were recorded at eight locations in the region. There is significant damage to residential infrastructure. https://uatv.ua/uk/shahedy-ta-kaby-letily-z-novyh-napryamkiv-u-zaporizhzhi-likviduyut-naslidky-rosijskyh-udariv-video/
In many regions of Ukraine, power equipment has already been damaged and power outages are ongoing.
https://24tv.ua/rosiyani-zavdali-kombinovanih-udariv-po-energetitsi-ye-poshkodzhennya_n2927614
But the main blow fell on the western part of the country. https://komersant.ua/rosiia-provela-kombinovanu-ataku-na-mista-ukrainy-zafiksovani-ruynuvannia-ie-zahybli-ta-postrazhdali/
In Lviv, a fire broke out in the Sparrow industrial park as a result of night shelling.
https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1109316-u-lvovi-palaye-industrialnyj-park-sparrow-tam-buly-sklady-cropp-house-sinsay-reserved-ta-mohito
And this is just a week after the local authorities made a loud presentation about its size and capabilities. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4sSmPWgiSo
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi noted that after the Zaporizhzhia NPP was disconnected from external power sources due to shelling, a serious situation remains at the station in terms of nuclear safety. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/na-zaes-zberigaietsia-seriozna-situatsiia-dlia-iadernoyi-bezpeki-glava-magate
Instead, Ukrainian military personnel in the area of Lake Onega attacked and damaged the russian small missile ship "Buyan-M" at night, which is a carrier of the "Onyx" and "Caliber" missiles. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/nosiy-oniksiv-ta-kalibriv-shcho-vidomo-raketniy-1759569127.html
Yesterday, among others, the key railway station in Shostka was hit, causing problems with transportation to the east, and the operator was forced to change routes. https://www.dsnews.ua/ukr/politics/udar-po-vokzalu-v-shostci-v-odnomu-z-vagoniv-potyaga-ryatuvalniki-znayshli-zagiblu-lyudinu-04102025-529698
Kharkiv is under constant attacks. https://harkiv.novyny.live/rf-masovano-atakuvala-kharkivshchinu-chastina-abonentiv-bez-svitla-285333.html
And again a blow to the energy sector in Chernihiv. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/rf-znovu-vdarila-energetitsi-chernigivshchini-1759557228.html
Such short phrases do not convey the full scale of the destruction and the number of victims. And this is only October 5...
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the russians have been preparing for new massive strikes for at least a month. The main target is likely to be Ukrainian energy. According to analysts, a new large-scale attack could take place in the coming days. As the ISW notes, the enemy has been accumulating missiles throughout September, so a wave of massive strikes could occur in the near future. So this is just the beginning, although hundreds of drones are already flying into Ukraine every day. https://today.ua/482832-vorog-gotuyetsya-vzhe-misyac-rf-mozhe-zavdati-masshtabnogo-udaru-najblizhchimi-dnyami/
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On Saturday, October 4, during mass protests against the rigging of local elections in Georgia, demonstrators stormed the presidential palace in Tbilisi. People took to the streets of the capital, accusing the authorities of rigging the local elections. Demonstrators call the vote a "farce" and even a "Russian special operation." A group of men broke through the fence around the presidential palace and attacked several members of the guard who were in the courtyard. Soon, special forces and hundreds of patrol police appeared from the residence building. They used pepper spray against the demonstrators, and arrests are taking place. https://society.comments.ua/ua/news/developments/u-gruzii-protestuvalniki-pishli-na-shturm-prezidentskogo-palacu-scho-vidbuvaetsya-782864.html
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said that the ruling party had fulfilled its forecast and promise to win in all municipalities, and the "attempted overthrow" had failed. He announced harsh punishments for the participants in the action, stating that Georgia would not be a place for a "revolution organized by foreign intelligence services." After that, Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Georgia Alexander Darakhvelidze announced the detention of the organizers of the protest on October 4 - Paata Burchuladze, Murtaz Zodelav, Irakli Nadiradze, Paata Manjgaladze and Lasha Beridze. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/clyxlgdwqwjo
Georgia is perhaps the only post-Soviet country besides Ukraine that time to time is trying to break free from russian control through protests against the pro-russian government, which also led to an armed attack and occupation by russia of parts of its territory.
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that the current US position on ending the war against russia is based on the desire to implement the "cheapest scenario".
According to him, in American political logic, Ukraine's victory can be considered a dangerous precedent. He said this in an interview with OBOZ.UA. Explaining Washington's vision, Kuleba emphasized that in the world of President Donald Trump and within the realist school of American foreign policy, Kyiv's success in the war with Moscow looks like a challenge to the world order, in which "the weaker must obey the stronger".
He explained that for the US, Ukraine's victory could be a dangerous signal to other countries. If Kyiv can defend its independence, this could inspire other states to resist in cases of pressure from Washington. "The wrong signal is being sent that it is not necessary to submit to the will of the strong. It turns out that you can resist and achieve your goals. And tomorrow America will come to the hypothetical Latin American country of Panama to take away the canal. Panama will say: "And we will be like Ukraine, we will all rise to war for our independence," the former minister added.
https://aspi.com.ua/news/politika/kuleba-poyasniv-chomu-ssha-obrali-naydeshevshiy-scenariy-zavershennya-viyni-v-ukraini#gsc.tab=0sc.tab=0
Andrej Babis has won the Czech election, and while his ANO party does not have enough votes to form a majority, his political course could shift towards less support for Ukraine, similar to Hungary and Slovakia, raising concerns about EU unity. It also threatens the position of Ukrainians in the Czech Republic and the supply of ammunition under the Czech initiative.
https://24tv.ua/geopolitics/vibori-chehiyi-shho-oznachaye-povernennya-babisha-dlya-ukrayini_n2927693
Today, another friend of mine who is under 50 asked me to recommend a cardiologist. I congratulated him on joining the club. Doctors also pay attention to the fact that in Ukraine there is a trend towards a significant rejuvenation of heart diseases, but due to the full-scale war, not all patients have access to high-quality and timely medical care. Today we often talk about stress, anxiety and depressive disorders, but we forget about another factor - environmental pollution. All the fires and toxic substances from missiles and drones worsen the already poor ecology. https://life.nv.ua/ukr/health/viyna-v-ukrajini-kardiolog-pro-bum-infarktiv-do-20-rokiv-yak-zniziti-tisk-i-shcho-vplivaye-na-situaciyu-50549529.html
But a potential patient in Ukraine still needs to be able to get to a doctor and not be mobilized on the way. I came across the news that Apple and Google blocked downloads of phone apps that flag sightings of U.S. immigration agents, just hours after the Trump administration demanded that one particularly popular iPhone app be taken down. “These apps are a lifeline for communities living in uncertainty and fear of when ICE might show up to tear their families apart,” Kica Matos, president of the National Immigration Law Center, said in a statement. https://apnews.com/article/apple-ice-iphone-app-immigration-fb6a404d3e977516d66d470585071bcc
If we do not take into account the moral, legal or technological component, the situation is very simple - certain people do not want to meet with representatives of the state and use all available means. In Ukraine, special "weather" channels in messengers are used for a similar purpose, where people share information about places with "bad weather" that may result in mobilization. And what means are there in your country to avoid the police or representatives of other agencies?
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russian drone and missile attacks continue daily, but there is not much information about the consequences. It seems that the authorities have something to hide from the people. But the warnings of energy companies about possible power outages and calls to save electricity and reduce consumption in the evening speak for themselves. But in conditions of cold weather and the absence of central heating, many people turn on electric heaters. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/342914-v-ukrenergo-prizyvayut-ne-vklyuchat-moschnye-pribory-vecherom-kakaya-prichina
https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1109447-v-ukrenergo-rozpovily-v-yakyh-oblastyah-najskladnisha-sytuatsiya-z-energetykoyu
The situation with gas is also not easy. Some say that the russians have struck Ukrainian gas production facilities in northeastern Ukraine. Some have noticed that the color of the gas flame has changed from blue to yellow and the heat transfer has decreased. Thus, this winter Ukraine may become even more dependent on energy supplies from Europe. Of course, provided that there is enough gas and electricity to supply Ukraine, someone will pay for it and the pipelines and power grids will not be damaged.
But already now, the mayor of Kharkiv, Igor Terekhov, has stated that the coming winter will be the most difficult for the city during the war years due to the destruction of two transformer substations.https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/342921-rf-unichtozhila-dve-podstantsii-v-kharkove-gryaduschaya-zima-budet-samoy-tyazheloy-terekhov
The russians also continue to attack factories, elevators, and warehouses throughout the country. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1109658-rf-atakuvala-elevator-i-energetychnyj-ob-yekt-na-chernigivshhyni-ye-znestrumlennya-ova
In Poltava, they attacked a locomotive depot, a power supply line, and traction substations. Administrative and warehouse premises, as well as a rolling stock, were also damaged. https://hromadske.ua/viyna/252657-udar-po-poltavi-poshkodzeni-zaliznychne-depo-ta-tiahovi-pidstantsiyi-chastyna-zyteliv-bez-svitla
Official information has emerged that on the evening of October 5, a russian fiber-optic FPV drone first hit Kramatorsk, which is located 20 km from the front line: there were no casualties, but the explosion damaged a passenger car. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/fpv-optovolokno-kramatorsk/33551577.html Given the peculiarities of this type of UAV (they are not yet detected by drone detectors, they are not affected by electronic warfare), this means that the last large cities that have not yet been captured by the Russians in the Donetsk region are already under threat not only from aerial bombs, missiles and large drones. It seems that my friend's boyfriend, who serves in those places and believes that the loss of these cities is a matter of time, is right.
Unfortunately, the number of drones of all types used by russia has been increasing recently, and so has the number of hits. They are also becoming cheaper and are constantly being modernized. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c17er5n2eg8o So far, predictions of an increase in missile attacks have not come true, but this may be due to the fact that they will be attacking energy more starting in November.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to attack oil refining facilities and oil storage tanks in russia and Crimea. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/timchasovo-okupovaniy-feodosiyi-drugu-dobu-1759826410.html
The concerted Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and other parts of russia’s fuel-distribution system began in August, and the number of strikes is rising from two or three a week to four or five. Soon they will be daily. https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/10/05/ukraines-hellfire-is-intensifying-the-kremlins-fuel-crisis
The Kirishi oil refinery, one of russia's largest, has halted a crude distillation unit, CDU-6, its most productive unit, following a drone attack and subsequent fire on October 4, with its recovery expected to take about a month. https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-kirishi-refinery-halts-largest-unit-after-drone-attack-sources-say-2025-10-06/
As Europeans mull building a "drone wall," more and more "unidentified" drones are visiting European airports and other strategic sites. They are already causing significant damage, and the damage they cause could be much greater in the future.
Until now, the origin of these drones in Europe has been described as "undetermined." European leaders have rarely ruled out the possibility that russians are involved in the drone strikes. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz took a step forward when he said that russia could be behind the drone attacks that "poured" into Germany last week. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c24rjv8gy7vo
Meanwhile former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has blamed Poland and the Baltic states for the war in Ukraine. She accuses them of blocking the EU dialogue with putin in 2021 and thus contributing to Moscow's aggression. https://www.blick.ch/ausland/brisante-aussagen-sorgen-fuer-empoerung-merkel-gibt-polen-mitschuld-an-putins-krieg-id21296629.html
As we see, too much depends on leaders, and the ongoing political crisis in France, where the fifth prime minister in recent years has resigned, threatens Macron's position. Thus, Ukraine may lose another ally in Europe. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cewn9k0w9rxo
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Ukraine has begun using FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles to attack russian energy facilities, The Economist reports. https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/10/05/ukraines-hellfire-is-intensifying-the-kremlins-fuel-crisis. But so far no one has published evidence that it was these rockets. Everyone understands the secrecy measures and the need to maintain military secrecy, but this did not prevent them from making noisy presentations some time ago. Some even believe that all this hype is a cover for fraud.
Perhaps the production of such weapons as missiles is now possible only abroad. I have not heard anything about the mass production and use of Ukrainian tanks or Neptun missiles, which were widely advertised earlier.
Internal government audits examining purchases by Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency have found dozens of contracts awarded to companies at inflated prices over lower-priced competitors, and have found an overpayment of $129 million in Ukraine’s classified spending on weapons. As billions of dollars flow to domestic manufacturers with financial assistance from European donors, much of the spending is shrouded in wartime secrecy. That worries analysts and activists who say Ukraine has made little progress in curbing a long history of corruption in military procurement, The New York Times reports. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/06/world/europe/ukraine-war-weapons-defense-contracts-payments.html
The Verkhovna Rada plans to adopt a resolution that stipulates the impossibility of holding local elections during the war. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/342971-verkhovnaya-rada-primet-postanovlenie-kotoroe-predusmatrivaet-nevozmozhnost-provedeniya-mestnykh-vyborov-vo-vremya-voyny
They explain this by the need to "observe the principle of continuity of power." It seems like it's time to add such a sophisticated wording to the relevant Wikipedia article. Authoritarianism is a political system characterized by the rejection of political plurality, the use of strong central power to preserve the political status quo, and reductions in democracy, separation of powers, civil liberties, and the rule of law.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authoritarianism
After all, there is nothing to prevent local authorities from being elected in a territory where there is no active fighting. But the central government clearly wants to keep pro-government representatives in elected positions indefinitely.
In fact, people no longer have many rights that can be restricted. One story shook society, which demonstrated its attitude to the way mobilization in Ukraine is conducted. A video recorded by a surveillance camera appeared on the Internet, showing people dressed in military uniforms catching a cat on the street, taking it into a car and driving away quickly. All this was so reminiscent of grabbing people on the street that someone jokingly commented on it as a mobilization of a cat. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7l9ayJmjjs The mobilization center was outraged and published a refutation that its employees did not steal the cats, and the comments demonstrate people's disrespect for them and are a consequence of the influence of russian propaganda. https://thepage.ua/ua/news/tck-sprostuvav-vikradennya-kota-na-kiyivshini-sho-vidomo-video
The cat was eventually found, it was returned to its owner. This story would be funny if it were not sad...
On October 6 in Kyiv, people in military uniforms began to drag a young man onto a bus, and people fought him off. https://enovosty.com/uk/video-uk/full/v-kiyevi-vijskovi-zatyaguvali-cholovika-v-bus-lyudi-jogo-vidbivali-reakciya-kiivskogo-tck
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0910 Rains and cold have come to Ukraine. russia's main attack is probably ahead, but every day their drones and missiles destroy Ukraine's energy sector.
russian occupation forces once again attacked an energy facility in the Chernihiv and Dnipro regions. Thousands of consumers are without electricity. https://bukvy.org/rosiyany-znovu-atakuvaly-energoob-yekt-na-chernigivshhyni-yaki-naslidky/
https://uatv.ua/uk/u-dvoh-mistsyah-pozhezhi-rosijski-shahedy-masovano-atakuvaly-dnipropetrovshhynu-foto/
Train traffic has been temporarily suspended in the direction of Sumy and Chernihiv regions. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/343223-dvizhenie-poezdov-v-chernigovskoy-i-sumskoy-oblastyakh-priostanovleno-iz-za-atak-rf-glava-sumskoy-ova-grigorov
The Dnipro was attacked by an aerial bomb. https://unn.ua/news/u-dnipri-prolunav-vybukh-ta-pidniavsia-stovp-dymu-okupanty-ymovirno-atakuvaly-kabom
Ukraine is fighting a war of attrition. Any hopes that might have been raised by President Trump’s red-carpet diplomacy with Vladimir putin have expired, and it is impossible to spend more than a few minutes near the front line without being confronted by Ukraine’s greatest vulnerability: lack of soldiers. However, as The Atlantic journalist Robert F. Worth writes, our country can actually still achieve its military goals on the front. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/10/ukraine-russia-drone-war-attrition/684419/
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine proposes to increase the expenditure part of the 2025 budget by another $8 billion, directing these funds to defense needs. The peculiarity is that some of the money is planned to be “intercepted” from the resources planned for 2026 within the framework of the ERA Loans initiative (the European Union and the G7 countries). https://komersant.ua/kabmin-pidvyshchyv-oboronni-vydatky-de-vizmut-hroshi-iak-pererozpodilyly-biudzhet-ta-chy-ie-ryzyky/ The only question is whether Europe will provide this money.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, more than 1.3 million citizens already have the status of combatants, the Ministry of Veterans Affairs of Ukraine reported. The majority received the status after 2022. https://www.unian.ua/society/yaka-kilkist-ubd-v-ukrajini-uchasnikiv-boyovih-diy-vzhe-ponad-1-3-milyona-osib-13155597.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
The parliament nevertheless adopted a law that provides for the continuity of work of local councils and mayors in wartime, which essentially means postponing new local elections until the end of martial law. https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-news/u-radi-progolosuvali-za-bezperervnist-roboti-mistsevoi-vladi-pid-chas-vijni-scho-tse-oznachae.htm
As people joke, it remains to establish the continuity of martial law. As long as Russia exists, there must be martial law, because russia will always be a threat, so that the president does not continue it every quarter.
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That's what we've been waiting for!
Overnight russian missile and drone strikes have caused power cuts in large parts of Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, and eight other regions. In total, more than 450 drones and 30 missiles were launched. Two CHPs, two TPPs and four HPPs in different cities were hit. Transformers in Chernihiv Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Poltava Oblast, Sumy Oblast were also damaged.
The Dniprovska HPP in Zaporizhia and the HPP in Kaniv, Cherkasy region, could also be under attack.
Block transformers were damaged at one of the Kyiv CHPs, said Oleksiy Kucherenko, deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada energy committee.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/crkjg80rpmgo
Sergiy UR3CTB in Kaniv had his windows and front door blown out by the blast wave, fortunately he was not injured.
In Kyiv today, my area had a blackout that lasted 16 hours. Unfortunately, my neighbors' inverters and batteries were generating noise as usual. But I was able to make several QSO using a car battery, including one to Thailand E21EIC/8.
Also, half of the city was left without water supply. The attack began at midnight and ended only in the morning. By the evening, water and electricity supply were restored, but on the upper floors there is not enough water pressure in some places, and the voltage does not exceed 210 volts instead of 240.
MP Maryana Bezugla advises Kyiv residents to temporarily leave the capital for the winter. She emphasized that Kyiv is a strategic and symbolic target for the russians. "It is possible that it will be completely "downed". Completely - it is darkness without sewage, water supply in the middle of winter," Bezugla suggested.
https://kyiv.tsn.ua/kyiv/temriava-bez-kanalizatsiyi-i-vodopostachannia-nardepka-radyt-kyianam-na-zymu-vyyikhaty-z-mista-2931557.html
I sincerely appreciate such advice.
Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Ukraine has a plan A and a plan B in case of attacks on gas infrastructure and large-scale blackouts. Regarding problems with electricity supply, Zelensky said that the state will simultaneously protect the energy sector and restore networks after strikes.
"Regarding the gas infrastructure, which is currently under strong pressure from russian attacks. We have a plan "A" and a plan "B". In plan "B", if, for example, there is a strong attack on the entire gas infrastructure, we understand that we then have imports. We understand the volume and cost of the corresponding imports. This is plan "B". Plan "A" is when we use our own production more. In plan "B" we understand where to get the money that is needed," Zelensky concluded. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/343172-ne-khvataet-sistem-pvo-zelenskiy-rasskazal-gotovitsya-li-ukraintsam-k-blekautam
As for plan A, I think it's too optimistic. russian strikes in recent days have wiped out more than half of Ukraine’s domestic natural gas production, likely forcing the war-battered country to spend 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion) on fuel imports to survive the looming winter, writes Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/russian-strikes-knock-out-more-than-half-of-ukraine-gas-output-ahead-of-winter
As for plan B, it looks like to buy russian gas, which is supplied to Europe on credit. Excellent!
On the night of October 9, the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck two fuel and energy infrastructure facilities in the Volgograd region of russia. The Korobkovsky gas processing plant and the Yefimovka linear production dispatch station were hit, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported. Korobkovsky GPP, located in the city of Kotovo, is one of the largest enterprises for the primary processing of natural and associated petroleum gas in southern russia. Its design capacity is about 450 million cubic meters of gas and 186 thousand tons of light hydrocarbon fractions per year. Yefimovka station provides transportation of oil and petroleum products in the region and has a throughput capacity of up to 50 million tons per year.
Explosions and a fire were recorded on the territory of both facilities. Data on the extent of damage is currently being clarified.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces consistently carry out operations aimed at undermining Russia's military-economic potential in order to force the aggressor to stop its armed aggression against Ukraine. https://tsn.ua/svit/syly-oborony-vdaryly-po-dvokh-vazlyvykh-obyektakh-rf-u-volhohradskiy-oblasti-detali-2930552.html
This is impressive, but more and more Ukrainians are asking why no missile or drone has yet hit Moscow and cause a blackout in russia as Zelensky promised in response to attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector.
During the attack on the base of the Federal Security Service of the russian federation in the north of the temporarily occupied Crimea, Ukrainian forces used three Flamingo cruise missiles, wrote the German publication Welt. According to Welt, the Ukrainian army is currently armed with probably dozens, and possibly more than a hundred Flamingo missiles. https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus68e5009c727cb23c507934e0/marschflugkoerper-auge-um-auge-was-die-ukraine-mit-ihrer-maechtigen-neuen-waffe-plant.html
Perhaps these figures only reflect the costs of this program, so we are waiting for their use.
On Thursday, October 9, a MiG-31 fighter-interceptor, which also carries supersonic Kinzhal missiles, crashed in the Lipetsk region (russia). According to preliminary information, the pilots of the plane ejected. https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/novosti-rossii/u-lipetskij-oblasti-rf-rozbivsya-nosij-kindzhaliv-mig-31-scho-vidomo.htm
US President Donald Trump expressed his belief that Ukraine and russia will soon hold talks on a peaceful settlement. He made the statement at the White House, where he hosted Finnish President Alexander Stubb. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2025/10/10/7222115/
Donald Trump also thanked Vladimir putin for his words that the Nobel Peace Prize had "lost credibility" because it was not awarded to an American leader. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/donald-tramp-podyakuvav-putinu-za-pidtrimku-na-shlyahu-do-nobelivskoji-premiji-miru-50551744.html
Vladimir putin claims that Moscow is building its work on the “settlement” of the Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine on the basis of the principles discussed during his summit with US President Donald Trump in Alaska.
putin made this statement on Friday, October 10, during a meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in Dushanbe (Tajikistan), the russian news agency RIA Novosti reports. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/volodimir-putin-zrobiv-novu-zayavu-shchodo-viyni-rf-proti-ukrajini-50551635.html
So, we would like to know what Trump and Putin did agree on in Alaska.
Meanwhile, the Chief of the russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, announced a new "strategic task" for the russian army - the occupation of Zaporizhia, the regional center of which is only 22 km from the front line. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/putin-zminiv-tsili-svo-teper-v-armii-rf-nove-strategichne-zavdannya
Radosław Sikorski, the deputy prime minister and foreign minister of Poland, published in the New York Times his vision of how to negotiate with putin. Just do it in two stages: Make a show of force first, and only then have dialogue. To do this, it is essential to continue to support Ukraine financially and militarily, and to undermine the foundations of the russian war economy. A good beginning would be for the self-described MAGA acolytes in Hungary and Slovakia to listen to Mr. Trump and stop buying russian oil, and to finally use the more than $200 billion of frozen russian assets in Europe to give financial assistance to the victims of Mr. putin’s war.
The largest country on earth doesn’t need more land. It should take better care of what is already within its internationally recognized borders. The leadership of russia must understand that its attempt to rebuild Europe’s last empire is doomed to fail. The age of empires is over. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/opinion/putin-poland-radoslaw-sikorski.html
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This night in Kyiv was quiet and all the batteries and phones were charged. But in Odesa, houses and energy facilities were destroyed and damaged. https://odesa.novyny.live/vibiti-vikna-i-dron-u-kvartiri-naslidki-nichnoyi-ataki-na-odesu-286872.html
The occupiers also advanced in three settlements in Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions. https://gazeta.ua/articles/life/_analitiki-zafiksuvali-prosuvannya-v-troh-selah-na-donechchini-ta-zaporizhzhi-i-nazvali-lokaciyi/1232689
Hundreds of missiles delivered to Ukraine months ahead of schedule as UK leads Kyiv trade delegation, the British government website reports. The missiles, known as Lightweight Multirole Missiles, manufactured in Belfast are used to defend Ukraine’s airspace. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hundreds-of-missiles-delivered-to-ukraine-months-ahead-of-schedule-as-uk-leads-kyiv-trade-delegation
Drones hit the Bashneft refinery in Ufa, 1,400 kilometers from Ukraine. https://gazeta.ua/articles/world-life/_droni-urazili-npz-bashnafta-v-ufi-za-1400-kilometriv-vid-ukrayini-zmi/1232684
Three and a half years since russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with a US-led peace process on ice and a stalemate on the battlefield, Kyiv’s allies are calling for renewed economic pressure on Moscow. The aim: to raise the cost of war for the Kremlin to a level that forces it to change course.
Eighteen packages of European Union sanctions and dozens more from the United States, United Kingdom and others have weakened russia’s economy – but not its resolve to carry on fighting, writes CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/11/business/russia-ukraine-war-economic-levers-intl
It seems that the so-called experts do not understand that, firstly, time is lost, and secondly, sanctions have never been truly painful for russia. Although using the word pain is also wrong. Any measures must be effective. Because pain and inconvenience will only be for the people and the regime in russia will use it to confirm the arguments of its propaganda. As for the stability of the russian economy, no numbers will convince me that one of the few countries in the world that is completely autonomous in resources and has full support from China, trade relations with most of the world and sells its gas and oil even to Europe, will not be able to exist and continue the war solely because of economic problems. Even the lack of gasoline will not force people to go to protests, because for russians since Soviet times, a car has been a luxury that they can do without. What is difficult for a russian to do without is vodka, but in extreme cases, everyone can start making moonshine. Even my grandmother made it when there was a shortage of vodka in Soviet times. This added a little to her small pension.
Even in the army, the situation has changed, although for it there will always be resources. If in the Second World War huge tank armies and thousands of aircraft were critically dependent on fuel, now the main battles are fought by drones and infantry, and logistics are based on the railway. We have already witnessed how attacks on Ukrainian energy immediately affected the railways.
As for the resilience of people, the situation is similar in russia and Ukraine, which is probably difficult to understand in the West. Even if large cities were completely left without energy and water, people would return to villages, where almost every family grows potatoes and many other vegetables, has chickens and pigs. Only, unlike Ukraine, for whose inhabitants there is always an alternative to go to Europe (at least for women and children), in russia they can go only to Siberia, because none of their neighbors will provide assistance to the russians.
Scandals have become more frequent in Ukraine due to the “busification” of men, even together with their pets. For example, in Kyiv, workers at a mobilization center mobilized a man together with his dog. The video was published by a number of local Telegram channels. The police reported that they were later released. https://enovosty.com/uk/news-ukr/lifestyle/full/u-kiyevi-pracivniki-tck-mobilizuvali-cholovika-razom-iz-jogo-sobakoyu-video
In one of the mobilization camps, a fight was caught on video, which broke out after one of the soldiers swooped down and hit a civilian, after which the civilian reacted in response. https://life.kyiv.ua/news/konflikt-u-stolichnomu-tck-cholovik-vidpoviv-viyskovomu-pislya-udaru
The problem is that no law provides for the right to beat or detain people during mobilization, depriving them of their freedom. The moral dilemma is complicated by the fact that it is apparently impossible to explain why one person should go to the front instead of another. For example, why is a builder or a driver worse than a prosecutor or a judge? The criteria for exemption from service and the grounds for reservation are difficult to recognize as fair, and the procedure remains extremely corrupt. Especially when in fact the young and healthy often catch the old and sick, who go to the army instead of them.
Studying at a university or graduate school cannot be a reason for evading mobilization, and all cases of abuse are thoroughly investigated, Deputy Minister of Education and Science Mykola Trofymenko said. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/343165-v-mon-zayavili-chto-obuchenie-ne-osvobozhdaet-ot-mobilizatsii-universitety-nachali-proverki
Since I personally know several fake applicants for a scientific degree, I am sure that they will simply be forced to pay a bribe again so that they are not touched and nothing will change. But should we blame these people for taking advantage of the opportunity that the state created for them?
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Putin plays Trump very easily. He exploits Trump’s pathological narcissism and distorted perception of reality at every opportunity. As you mentioned, the latest public example was his comment echoing Trump’s delusion that the Nobel committee is playing politics rather than giving him the peace prize. These little things cost Putin nothing but they generate good will in Trump’s addled mind and in his followers, causing him to vacillate and delay truly decisive and effective action against Russia.
It is not a mistake that his spokespersons also lie and use insane hyperbole in public statements, because they must keep the “reality distortion field” operating for Trump and his hardcore MAGA followers. Here is what they said about the Nobel situation and Trump as quoted by the Washington Post yesterday:
“On Friday morning, Steven Cheung, the White House director of communications, wrote that the “Nobel Committee proved they place politics over peace. President Trump will continue making peace deals, ending wars, and saving lives. He has the heart of a humanitarian, and there will never be anyone like him who can move mountains with the sheer force of his will,” he added.”
“White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly previously told The Washington Post that Trump’s efforts to end global conflicts are not about awards. “While the President deserves the Nobel Peace Prize many times over, he doesn’t care about recognition — only saving lives,” she said in a statement.”
All Trump needs now is a red cape to go with his selfless superhero powers - and a Nobel, of course. Which brings up the topic of the Gaza war, for another discussion. Trump certainly deserves credit for seizing the opportunity to push Netanyahu and Hamas to take a step toward ending the war, which was possible because both are now in untenable positions. However only the first step has been agreed to and both have made statements casting doubt on what comes afterwards. Talk of a peace prize for this is premature.
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Yesterday I heard Australia on 21MHz. It's quite far from here, but it was a contest call and I decided not to bother him. Then I heard another one nearby and decided that I couldn't miss such an opportunity. So, in a couple of hours on 21 and 28 MHz 100W and vertical I made almost 2 dozen QSO with Australia, Indonesia, Philippines and Mariana Islands in Oceania DX contest.
Today in Kyiv it was quiet and sunny, but the wind picked up in the evening. A reconnaissance drone flew during the day, so there could be another attack at night.
As for the rest of Ukraine, russia launched more than 100 drones during the night, which hit the power grid in Donetsk and Odessa regions, causing a loss of electricity there.
https://24tv.ua/rosiyska-ataka-12102025-skilki-droniv-zapustila-rosiya-zvit-povitryanih_n2931802
https://www.unian.ua/war/vidklyuchennya-svitla-u-doneckiy-oblasti-nemaye-elektroenergiji-cherez-ataki-rf-13159932.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
The Armed Forces of Belarus have been placed on full combat readiness as the country launches a large-scale inspection covering multiple command levels and units. The maneuvers are aimed at assessing the army's ability to operate in the event of a security escalation. This announcement comes shortly after Belarus held annual mobilization readiness exercises from October 7 to 10, organized under the leadership of regional authorities. https://en.defence-ua.com/news/belarusian_armed_forces_placed_on_full_combat_readiness_following_lukashenkos_order-16114.html
Gasoline supply disruptions that began in August in the russian Far East have spread to at least 57 regions of russia. Some gas stations are forced to close, gasoline prices are rising rapidly, and authorities have banned the export of petroleum products until the end of the year. The crisis is unfolding amid a record number of attacks on russian energy facilities by Ukrainian drones, according to a BBC analysis.
Meanwhile, amid the shortage, according to Reuters, Belarus quadrupled its gasoline exports to russia by rail in September. Media outlets also reported that the government is considering eliminating import duties on petroleum products from several Asian countries, including China.
Given the current level of damage, the refineries are being restored within two to three weeks, so the further development of the crisis will depend on Ukraine: how many drones can Ukraine produce? What size drones, how often, and in what quantities can it send against russia? Will it continue to concentrate its firepower on refineries or choose other targets? https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cy7pr2565vvo
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Congratulations on your QSOs with Australia, SE Asia and Oceania! I assume it was CW. Tell us more about your antenna, please.
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Yes, CW is the only mode I use recently. The antenna is vertical you can see on QRZ.COM page. I think it's thanks to the guys with the big antennas on the other side)
I still have electricity, but there are outages in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv regions, partially in Kirovohrad and Zaporizhia regions, hourly in Chernihiv region
https://24tv.ua/dnipropetrovshhini-donechchini-zaprovadili-ekstreni-vidklyuchennya_n2932219
Large fires in the Odesa region. https://unn.ua/news/odeshchyna-zaznala-masovanoi-ataky-rf-dronamy-ye-postrazhdalyi-ta-masshtabni-pozhezhi
In Ukraine, the heating season has been shortened, which will now last from November 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026. Previously, heating was turned on from October 15 and ended on April 15. But no one knows whether it will be possible to turn on the heating at all if the attacks on the energy sector continue. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/343506-otopitelnyy-sezon-sokraschen-kabmin-perenes-start-s-oktyabrya-na-noyabr
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At night, Ukraine was attacked by almost a hundred drones, according to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. russia shelled the Kirovohrad region, leaving five settlements without electricity. Kharkiv was bombed with aerial bombs. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c8drp377j0qo
The energy infrastructure of the Kharkiv and Sumy regions was also affected by russian strikes. https://www.dsnews.ua/ukr/politics/voysko-rf-udarilo-po-energeticheskim-obektam-v-dvuh-regionah-minenergo-14102025-530229
It is quiet in Kyiv today, but due to overload and an accident on high-voltage lines, power outages occurred in Pechersk, Holosiivsky and Shevchenkivsky districts.
https://rubryka.com/2025/10/14/u-kyyevi-chastkovo-znykla-elektryka-fahivtsi-pratsyuyut-nad-vidnovlennyam-energopostachannya/
Emergency power outages were applied in Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk regions, as well as partially in Kirovohrad, Kyiv and Cherkasy regions. The air temperature at night approaches freezing and the additional load on the network is noticeable.
https://bukvy.org/u-minenergo-utochnyly-sytuatsiyu-z-avarijnymy-vidklyuchennyamy-v-ukrayini/
The Attorney General's Office has referred the case of the interim head of the Zolochiv District Mobilization Center to court for illegally mobilizing a man who was the sole guardian of his 82-year-old paralyzed father. He faces a fine of approximately $800 or 15 days in jail. https://novosti-n.org/ua/news/Kerivnyka-TCZK-sudytymut-za-nezakonnu-mobilizacziyu-opikuna-paralizovanogo-pensionera-325112#image-2
A large-scale clash involving representatives of the mobilization center, police, and local residents took place in Ternopil on the evening of October 13. After that, the mobilization center announced that it would involve combat units in the mobilization. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/343561-v-ternopole-proizoshla-massovaya-draka-mezhdu-sotrudnikami-ttsk-politsiey-i-grazhdanskimi-smi
Ukrainian law enforcement officers opened almost 290,000 criminal cases for unauthorized abandonment of a unit and desertion from January 2022 to September 2025, the Prosecutor General's Office reported. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/10/14/8002654/ Interestingly, this number is many times higher than the capacity of Ukrainian prisons. https://fakty.com.ua/ua/ukraine/20240522-skilky-uvyaznenyh-v-ukrayini-u-2024-roczi-tochna-kilkist-lyudej-v-tyurmah-i-sizo/
The well-known author and presenter Ramina Eshakzai published a photo showing the terrible conditions in the distribution mobilization center in Kyiv, where mobilized people are taken and kept there until they are sent to military units. Some spend a long time there. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/343604-raspredelitelnyy-tsentr-na-dvrz-kuda-dostavlyaet-ttsk-vyglyadit-khuzhe-kolonii-foto
The mobilization center immediately denied this and said that these materials were not confirmed and did not necessarily reflect the real state of affairs. https://www.facebook.com/KyivMTCK/posts/1115822847389013?ref=embed_post Although those who were there immediately recognized the place from the photo. It is noteworthy that russian prisoners are kept in much better conditions. https://t.me/truexanewsua/123590
Fresh from Middle East victory, Trump sets his sights on peace in Ukraine, writes The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-ukraine-russia-israel-hamas-peace-deal-19456632?mod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1
US President Donald Trump will welcome his Ukrainian counterpart to Washington on Friday for talks about how they can force russia’s Vladimir putin to the negotiating table, including through the possibility of supplying American-made Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv.
Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the defence programme at the Center for a New American Security think-tank, said Washington could spare some 20 to 50 Tomahawks for Ukraine, “which will not decisively shift the dynamics of the war”, writes Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/fe9e2704-c39d-42e7-8bcb-dc9ae9748a3e
For more than a decade, Poland has been preparing for the worst-case scenario of becoming the front line of defense in a possible war between russia and the West. Given russia’s growing aggression in Europe, Polish military strategists have been actively strengthening the country’s armed forces, turning Poland into the largest European army in NATO by 2024.
This year, Warsaw increased military spending to 4.7% of GDP, the highest among all members of the alliance, writes The Wall Street Journal. Large-scale multi-billion dollar purchases have made Poland one of the largest buyers of American weapons. https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/as-russian-aggression-turns-west-poland-says-its-ready-328a0a13?mod=hp_lead_pos8
What a contrast to the calls of the Ukrainian authorities in 2021 to prepare for the holidays and not to panic instead of preparing for war.
But the war (for power) is also ongoing inside Ukraine. The central government is consistently replacing local self-government by creating city military administrations and appointing their heads. Since in Kyiv the head of the military administration is unsuccessfully competing with the mayor, in Odessa, the third largest city in Ukraine, apparently taking into account the Kyiv experience, they decided to first get rid of the mayor, accusing him of obtaining russian citizenship. This is reminiscent of the situation in Chernihiv, where the mayor was also removed for dubious reasons, the BBC concludes. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c201r9e5r6eo
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The temperature during the day is +11C outside and +16 inside, but frost is expected soon at night. Emergency power outages have begun, but I still always have water. In other areas of Kyiv, in addition to power outages, there are also problems with water.
russian occupation forces launched a massive attack on Ukrainian gas infrastructure with missiles and strike drones on Thursday night, October 16. This is the sixth attack by russians on these facilities this month, the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine reports. There is damage, some facilities have been temporarily taken out of operation. Energy facilities were also under attack by the occupiers today. Emergency restoration work is currently underway. Emergency power outages are in effect in Kyiv and nine regions of Ukraine. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/rosijani-masovano-atakuvali-hazovu-infrastrukturu-ukrajini-chetvero-poranenikh.html
Such strikes directly affect the volume of domestic gas production and Ukrainians were urged to save on gas consumption. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/343799-ukraintsev-prizvali-ekonomit-gaz-kazhdyy-sekonomlennyy-kubometr-imeet-znachenie-naftogaz
The difference of this strike was the use of mainly ballistic missiles. In addition to 320 strike UAVs of the Shahed, Gerber and other types, 37 missiles were used, of which 28 were ballistic. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1111492-v-povitryanyh-sylah-zayavyly-shho-nichna-ataka-rf-vidriznyalas-vid-poperednih
russia struck the territory of one of the training units of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with two ballistic missiles, causing deaths and injuries. https://vechirniy.kyiv.ua/news/118628/
On the night of October 16, Ukrainian kamikaze drones launched a massive attack on the Saratov region of the russian federation. The targets were located in the regional center, as well as in Engels, where a strategic aviation airbase is located. https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/bula-seriya-vibuhiv-droni-atakuvali-rosijski-saratov-i-engels-aeroporti-pripinyali-robotu-video.htm
Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed Serhiy Lysak, who previously headed the Dnipropetrovsk regional military administration, as the head of the Odesa city military administration. In fact, this means that he will take over power in the city from Gennady Trukhanov, whom the president stripped of his Ukrainian citizenship the day before. Serhiy Lysak was one of the most unpublicized regional leaders in Ukraine and previously worked in the Security Service of Ukraine, writes the BBC. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/crmx2xnvd1lo Thus, the vertical of power in Ukraine is being strengthened and implemented with the help of the Security Service of Ukraine, which is becoming one of the main forces in Ukraine. All this is reminiscent of how in russia the FSB (both security services originate from the Soviet KGB) is the source and support of power.
In Ternopil region, seven servicemen are suspected of committing serious crimes. The investigation found that they illegally detained people, used physical violence and torture against them, and also extorted money and took property. This is reported by the Ternopil region police. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cly24p82kxxo
It is very sad to read this, understanding that the consequence is, among other things, discrediting the army. On the other hand, it is not very clear how this differs from kidnapping, which is officially carried out by mobilization centers.
The Prosecutor General's Office reported a dozen new cases of bribery and abuse during mobilization and service. Large-scale corruption schemes have been exposed both in mobilization centers and medical commissions, as well as in the structures of the armed forces. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/343807-ot-vvk-i-ttsk-do-struktur-vsu-ogp-soobschaet-o-masshtabnykh-korruptsionnykh-skhemakh-v-sfere-mobilizatsii-i-voennoy-sluzhby
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko met with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during a visit of the Ukrainian delegation to Washington and announced that the US-Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund has already begun operating. Priority projects relate to critical minerals, energy, and infrastructure. https://apostrophe.ua/ua/news/economy/2025-10-15/amerykansko-ukrayinskyy-fond-vidbudovy-pochav-robotu-svyrydenko-nazvala-pershi-proyekty/354118
Due to the ongoing hostilities, Ukraine's public finances remain under pressure, and the unmet need for external financing for 2026-2027 is about $60 billion. This was stated by Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko during the eighth meeting of the Ministerial Roundtable in Support of Ukraine, which took place in Washington. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/343819-ukraine-nuzhno-esche-60-mlrd-vneshney-pomoschi-v-2026-2027-godakh-marchenko
On Wednesday, October 15, the One Hundred Year Partnership Agreement between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and Ukraine officially entered into force. The agreement stipulates that the United Kingdom will provide Ukraine with military assistance of at least $3.6 billion annually, as needed. In addition, it is planned to expand cooperation in the field of long-range weapons and investment in Ukrainian defense production, in particular drones and artillery. https://24tv.ua/geopolitics/ugoda-pro-storichne-partnerstvo-mizh-ukrayinoyu-velikoyu-britaniyeyu_n2934147
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Yesterday I attended the Insolvency Law Forum organized by the Ukrainian Bar Association and returned very late. The event was held at the Hilton and the buffet was excellent. It was also warm there. In fact, I was very happy to see colleagues, many of whom have become friends over the more than 20 years they have been in this business. Unfortunately, no one could boast of successful cases, but everyone had something to tell about persecution by the state. Starting with corruption, ending with mobilization, which is used as a means of pressure and reprisal.
What kind of client protection or effective work of lawyers or trustee can we talk about if a judge, prosecutor or police officer, who are not subject to mobilization, can call representatives of the mobilization center to mobilize a stubborn lawyer who is starting to bother them too much?
In Khmelnytsky region, a conflict broke out between local residents and workers of a mobilization center. Telegram channels showed a video in which local women chased a mobilization center car with sticks and broke the windshield. This is probably the answer to the question of why the authorities in Ukraine do not risk mobilizing women. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/343958-v-khmelnitskoy-oblasti-mestnye-zhenschiny-s-palkami-prognali-ttsk-video
There was also a clash between residents of Dnipro and employees of the mobilization center. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/masova-sutichka-stalas-mizh-dnipryanami-i-viyskovimi-ttsk
But the main event yesterday was Zelensky's trip to the US and his meeting with Trump. The third meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump at the White House was neither a breakthrough in diplomacy nor a revolution in the United States' support for Ukraine. Zelensky was not helped by the fact that he wore a suit this time.
Instead, this visit left more questions than answers about when and under what conditions the russian-Ukrainian war might end. Ukraine did not receive the coveted "Tomahawks", the possibility of which has been actively heated up in the world press in the last few weeks. Nor did it receive the security guarantees that Kyiv has been negotiating with Washington for several months.
However, almost immediately after the meeting with the Ukrainian president, Donald Trump published a call on the social network Truth Social to Kyiv and Moscow to stop hostilities on the current line of contact. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn97gjqgq9po
In my opinion, the results were clear even when Trump called Putin while Zelensky's plane was in the air. Does Zelensky really not understand who he is being taken for?
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the United States did not go as he had hoped and showed how much Ukraine needs European help. According to the Chancellor, this makes European help even more important, because the war can only be ended if Ukraine has military strength.
He said that he would work to support Ukraine "financially, politically and, of course, militarily."
Surrender is not an option for Ukraine, because then russia will attack the next European country, he stressed. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1111963-vizyt-do-bilogo-domu-projshov-ne-tak-yak-spodivavsya-zelenskyj-kantsler-frn-merts
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Does Trump understand what Putin takes him for?
Obviously a rhetorical question because he falls for Putin’s enticement time and time again. Trump is like a teenage boy who continues to take a girl on expensive dates without receiving even a little goodnight kiss. But she implies a kiss next time while shaking his hand.
Putin also knows how to time his persuasion, hence he calls just before Zelensky arrives. It’s well known that Trump is overly influenced by the last person who speaks with him. In his first administration it was often vital for cabinet members and aides to arrange to be the last person to speak with him before he acted.
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While Western analysts do not expect anything concrete from the announced meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest, russian propaganda is already celebrating a diplomatic victory and the near-defection of the United States to russia, the French newspaper Le Monde reports.
The prospect of a second bilateral summit, expected in the coming weeks in Budapest, delighted commentators. Fiodor Lukyanov, the Kremlin's favored political scientist, was expecting "something specific." "Apparently, there is a settlement plan that was already presented in Alaska, and for which precise parameters have been defined," he explained in an email to Le Monde on Friday. russian officials have repeated this interpretation, widely picked up by the press, convinced that a "confidential" settlement of the conflict in Ukraine was reached at the previous summit between Trump and putin, without anyone else's knowledge. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/10/19/moscow-s-mix-of-relief-and-renewed-charm-toward-washington_6746570_4.html
The European Union has called a planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Kremlin leader Vladimir putin in Budapest an “insult,” El Pais reported. The upcoming meeting puts EU and NATO leaders in an awkward position, as the issue of the russian-Ukrainian war will be discussed without the EU itself.
This creates political tension, because in order to avoid conflict with Trump, EU leaders will probably have to grant putin special permission to fly through their airspace or force him to take a longer route. “The location was chosen carefully, as it could benefit russia by deepening the EU’s divisions over the Kremlin. It could also do Orbán a big favor, as his country faces elections next year.
https://elpais.com/internacional/2025-10-18/una-ruta-aerea-compleja-y-un-desaire-para-bruselas-la-reunion-entre-putin-y-trump-en-budapest-pone-en-guardia-a-la-ue.html
Jokes on this topic have already appeared in Ukraine, suggesting that putin reach Hungary via a gas pipeline.
But the emergence of jokes on a completely different level is alarming. Ukraine has been associated with Zelensky for too long, and now it will hurt it. On Sunday, 19 October, the British newspaper The Telegraph published a cartoon in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears in a white T-shirt with the sarcastic inscription: "I went to Washington and all I got was this lousy T-shirt". This image appeared against the background of his evening video address to Ukrainians, with Ukrainian flags in the background. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/telegraph-cartoons-october-2025/
It seems that in the alternative reality everything is not so bad. Zelensky said that putin is not winning, his army is now in a weak position.
www.dsnews.ua/ukr/politics/zelenskiy-putin-ne-peremagaye-yogo-armiya-zaraz-u-slabkiy-poziciji-19102025-530553
While the occupiers advanced in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. DeepState showed where exactly:
ukranews.com/ua/news/1112059-okupanty-prosunulysya-v-dnipropetrovskij-ta-zaporizkij-oblastyah-deepstate-pokazav-de-same
On the night of Sunday, October 19, russian forces launched 62 strike drones of various types into Ukraine, 19 of which hit their targets. https://armyinform.com.ua/2025/10/19/vorog-atakuvav-ukrayinu-62-bpla-40-z-yakyh-vdalosya-perehopyty-povitryani-syly-zsu/
Since the beginning of the year, aid from major allies has declined significantly. The United States, previously the main donor, has not provided Ukraine with new weapons since Donald Trump took office, writes the Neue Zürcher Zeitung.
European states have tried to partially fill the gap, but their production capacities remain limited. The most acute shortage is observed in the supply of artillery ammunition, air defense systems and missile launchers. According to the publication, in the summer, commitments from European countries decreased by 57% compared to the beginning of the year - from 3.8 to 1.9 billion euros per month. In general, the total aid from all donors fell by about 40%. https://www.nzz.ch/international/trotz-grossen-worten-aus-europa-brechen-die-ukraine-hilfen-ein-sechs-grafiken-zeigen-was-dahintersteckt-ld.1907338
Ukraine cannot win against russia, warns British Field Marshal. Field Marshal Lord Richards tells The Independent’s Sam Kiley that Ukraine has been given false hope by its Western allies and cannot triumph against russia unless Nato forces join fight. “What we have done in the case of Ukraine is encourage Ukraine to fight, but not given them the means to win,” the former chief of the defence staff told The Independent’s podcast World of Trouble. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-defeat-david-richards-world-of-trouble-podcast-b2844349.html
The pro-government faction of the majority party "Servant of the People" will hold a Coordination Meeting with government representatives on October 20. The meeting will discuss priority areas of state policy. The leadership of the Verkhovna Rada will also join the meeting. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/344032-fraktsiya-sluga-naroda-vstretitsya-s-sviridenko-i-chlenami-pravitelstva-dlya-obsuzhdeniya-gospolitiki
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced the implementation of a new $1,000 fee for aliens paroled into the United States. https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/alerts/uscis-implements-new-immigration-parole-fee-required-by-hr-1
It seems that this requirement will also apply to Ukrainians who are in the US under the U4U program.
On the night of October 9, the Ukrainian satellite Sich 2−30, developed by designers in Dnipro and launched in early 2022, left orbit and burned up in the atmosphere. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/suputnik-sich-2-30-ukrajinskiy-kosmichniy-aparat-ziyshov-z-orbiti-ta-pripiniv-isnuvannya-50552898.html
This was probably the last thing Ukraine achieved in the space industry, although it had been developing and manufacturing rocket and space systems since the 1950s. It was the Ukrainians who created the rockets that made a breakthrough in rocket technology and made the USSR competitive in the escalating Cold War.
Therefore, it is very sad to read the news that while in one country the artificial intelligence THOR, created at Los Alamos National Laboratory in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, is able to calculate the configuration integral — a key mathematical construct in the physics of matter — in just a few seconds https://scitechdaily.com/ai-breakthrough-finally-cracks-century-old-physics-problem/ , in another country at the same time people are being caught on the streets like slave traders caught blacks in Africa hundreds of years ago.
For the second year in a row, Ukraine has been facing a severe shortage of English, computer science, and mathematics teachers, according to the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine. In addition, schools are short of teachers of Ukrainian language and literature, physical education, history, and physics. https://lux.fm/u-minosviti-nazvali-3-predmeti-yaki-ot-ot-ne-bude-komu-vikladati_n199960
It seems that the Ukrainian government believes that stupid and obedient people should lead Ukraine to success and victory, while overly intelligent citizens only pose a threat to the regime.
But it seems that not everyone agrees with this approach and some are ready to offer their own vision of how to govern the country and demonstrate their own political ambitions. How else can one explain the public speeches of the chief intelligence officer of Ukraine on topics that are not within his competence? During the Kyiv International Economic Forum, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, stated that the basis of Ukraine's security in the future should be the rejection of the resource-based model in favor of an economy with high added value, the development of a modern high-tech defense-industrial complex and the formation of a clear grand strategy of the state.
"The grand strategy of Ukraine is necessary for us to finally determine our place and role in the new world and confidently move towards this goal," the head of the GUR emphasized. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/344030-ukraina-dolzhna-sozdat-grand-strategiyu-i-byt-gotovoy-k-otporu-v-lyuboy-moment-kirill-budanov
In the worst case, this could mean that the authorities are preparing opportunities to remain in power by offering people a new face, as the FSB and oligarchs once made putin the president of russia. In this case, the statements will remain just populist slogans, as has happened repeatedly before.
Explosions were heard in several regions of the russian federation on the night of October 19. Two enterprises important to the russian federation were hit by drones at once: the Novokuibyshevsk Refinery and the Orenburg Gas Plant. https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/u-rosii-poskarzhilisya-na-ataku-droniv-pid-samaroyu-zagorivsya-npz-v-orenburzi-gazzavod-foto-i-video.htm
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Yes it does seem that Trump has had a “near defection” to Russia. Good summary of the situation here including mention of the shouting and swearing between Zelensky and Trump over Trump’s insistence that Ukraine give up territory.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/20/zelenskyy-calls-for-more-us-patriot-air-defences-after-trump-again-sides-with-putin
My view: Trump has determined to side with Russia. After the Israeli/Hamas cease fire, Trump clearly wants a quick encore performance for the Nobel committee, regardless of the cost to Ukraine. He cannot resist Putin’s seemingly hypnotic spells nor give up his long standing bromance with the dictator. He doesn’t and probably never will fully grasp the danger to Europe and the world presented by Russia. Even if he did, he doesn’t seem to care, thinking it’s just Europe’s problem.
I for one apologize to my Ukraine friends that we in the US made the mistake of re-electing this sorry excuse of a leader and that he is not supporting your country. (While not a topic of this forum it’s worth mentioning that he is also wreaking havoc on our own country and we will not escape consequences here. I hope that we will be able to keep our republic.)
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The Washington Post had more details today of the meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the White House:
In a tense meeting at the White House on Friday, Trump tossed aside maps of the front line and urged Kyiv to concede its entire Donbas region to Russia to clinch a deal, according to people familiar with the exchange who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive diplomacy.
“He said [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will destroy you if you don’t agree now,” one of the people said.
“Zelensky had his maps and everything, and he was explaining it to him but [Trump] wanted nothing to do with it.”
Trump listened but was not responsive to the Ukrainian message, the person said. “It was pretty much like ‘No, look guys, you can’t possibly win back any territory. … There is nothing we can do to save you. You should try to give diplomacy another chance.’”
https://wapo.st/4qrm8E3
“Clinch a deal”. Not a quote of him, but perfectly consistent with what Trump would say. Like he is closing on buying a plot of land.
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I can't understand the constant begging for money and weapons from the USA, which is on the other side of the world, while Europe and Ukraine should make more efforts and solve their problems on their own. But it seems that an insolvent country will not dare to change management and carry out restructuring, confidently heading towards bankruptcy and liquidation...
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I can’t either. It’s like the house is on fire at one end from the Russians and the Zelensky administration responded by setting the other end on fire. It’s a little disingenuous to beg your friends to help extinguish the flames under such circumstances.
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The air temperature is dropping and it's already below 10C outside. In houses where residents don't heat themselves, the temperature has also dropped. My thermometer shows +16C, but I just started eating and drinking tea more, and I sit at the computer wrapped in a blanket.
The authorities will still be forced to turn on central heating because people are turning on electric heaters, which leads to overloading the already weak power grid. https://news.novyny.live/v-ukrenergo-nazvali-termin-koli-v-ukrayini-zapratsiuie-opalennia-288844.html
Of course, the real situation will depend on the russians and their attacks.
On the night of October 21, russian troops attacked Ukraine with two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, four S-30 anti-aircraft guided missiles, and 98 Shahed, Gerbera, and other types of strike UAVs. Air defense neutralized 58 targets, the Ukrainian Air Force reported. https://weukraine.tv/top/rosijani-znovu-atakuvali-iskanderami-ta-majzhe-100-bpla-skilki-zbili/
Among other things, the attack resulted in an emergency power outage in Chernihiv and northern communities of the region. https://zaxid.net/chernigiv_ta_chastina_oblasti_zalishilis_bez_svitla_y_vodi_vnaslidok_udariv_rf_n1621756 No other consequences were reported in the press.
UAVs also attacked the Rostov region in russia: explosions thundered at an electrical substation. https://weukraine.tv/novyny/bpla-atakuvali-rostovsku-oblast-vibukhi-prohrimili-na-elektropidstantsiji/
Although the overall balance is clearly not in Ukraine's favor. russia has begun mass production of guided aerial bombs, increasing their range to approximately 200 km. https://www.dsnews.ua/ukr/politics/rossiyane-uvelichili-radius-svoih-aviabomb-do-200-km-gur-20102025-530609
Today, the Verkhovna Rada extended martial law for the 17th time for another 90 days, starting from November 5 of this year. https://inshe.tv/suspilstvo/2025-10-21/957494/
This means continued restrictions for men and further forced mobilization, as well as all things related to it.
Suspicion was reported to police officers who took the man to the mobilization center building in the Holosiivsky district of the capital and beat him. https://censor.net/ua/p3580549
The Bar Council of Ukraine will appeal to the General Staff of the Armed Forces and the Ministry of Defense with a demand to equip all mobilization centers with separate premises for the work of lawyers. In fact, this recognizes the status of mobilized persons as similar to the status of criminals, who currently have more rights to legal aid than mobilized persons. https://unba.org.ua/news/10889-rau-zvernet-sya-z-prohannyam-stvoriti-v-usih-tck-kimnati-dlya-roboti-advokativ.html
Meanwhile, the parliament plans to repeal the law on citizens' appeals and adopt a new one, which will significantly narrow the grounds and opportunities for addressing authorities exclusively within the framework of special procedures. The current law stipulates the obligation of state authorities to respond to any requests from citizens within the established deadlines. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/343960-verkhovnaya-rada-otmenit-zakon-ob-obrascheniyakh-grazhdan-chto-primut-vzamen
Business Ombudsman of Ukraine Roman Vashchuk stated that there is an acute shortage of labor force in the Ukrainian labor market, especially among men. According to him, the issue of personnel shortage arose even before the full-scale war, and now it has become even more urgent.
Vashchuk emphasized that in the conditions of demographic decline and mass emigration of citizens abroad, Ukraine may consider opening the labor market to immigrants from Central Asian countries. news.novyny.live/ukrayina-uzhe-priimaie-immigrantiv-na-robotu-cherez-brak-robochikh-ruk-288777.html
So, Ukrainians have to die so that people from Central Asia and other migrants can live and work here?
Zelensky’s meeting with Trump could have been much more productive had he recalibrated his thinking and rejigged his agenda after putin’s lengthy call with the U.S. leader, writes Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-trump-zelenskyy-poorly-timed-heave-in-washington/
But not everyone noticed that Pete Hegseth showed up to the White House meeting with President Zelensky wearing a russian tricolor flag tie. https://news.liga.net/en/politics/news/vance-stood-up-for-hegseth-on-the-tricolor-on-his-tie-during-a-meeting-with-zelenskyy
russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said russia will not cease hostilities in Ukraine until the “root cause” of the war is eliminated. According to him, a quick ceasefire contradicts the agreements reached between US President Donald Trump and russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. According to Lavrov, an immediate ceasefire would leave most of Ukraine “under the rule of the Nazis.” https://today.ua/483378-u-moskvi-publichno-vidmovilis-vid-miru-lavrov-zrobiv-novu-zayavu-pro-pershoprichini-vijni/
Planning for a meeting between US President Donald Trump and russian leader Vladimir Putin, which was scheduled to take place in Budapest, has been put on hold, NBC News journalist Garrett Haake reported, citing a senior White House official. https://x.com/GarrettHaake
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Emergency power outages were introduced in a number of regions and Kyiv on the morning of Wednesday, October 22, local regional energy companies and energy companies reported. https://unn.ua/news/ekstreni-vidkliuchennia-svitla-zaprovadyly-u-nyztsi-oblastei-ukrainy
As temperatures drop in Ukraine, russia has stepped up drone attacks on power facilities supplying millions of homes across the country. There are signs that the russian military is repeatedly hitting the same areas to aggravate the population’s suffering. The northern regions of Chernihiv and Sumy – adjoining russia and Belarus – have seen constant attacks over the past month.
Hundreds of thousands of people in Chernihiv were without power or water on Tuesday after more than 50 drones and missiles targeted essential facilities overnight. Two attack drones hit a heat supply facility and another energy installation, according to Vyacheslav Chaus, head of Chernihiv regional military administration. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/21/europe/russian-drones-target-ukraine-energy-intl
When the first drones flew at midnight, I hardly paid attention to them, but there were more and more of them and they exploded closer and closer and prevented me from sleeping. Closer to morning they paused, and at dawn ballistic missiles flew in and the explosions really shook the house as if during an earthquake. Apparently the russians wanted to hit a nearby thermal power plant, but surprisingly I had both water and electricity all day. But not everyone was so lucky. In part of Kyiv there was neither water nor electricity, which was restored only in the evening. But they warned that the outages would begin tomorrow.
At least seven people have been killed including two children during intense russian drone and missile strikes on Ukraine, officials say. A kindergarten was hit in Ukraine's second biggest city Kharkiv and there was widespread damage in Kyiv. Children were among the 27 people wounded. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czjpe0193geo
In the Kyiv region, a russian drone hit a residential building in the village of Pogreby, killing a woman and two children who had come from Kyiv to live in warmth and away from airstrikes.
https://24tv.ua/ataka-droniv-kamikadze-po-kiyivshhini-22-zhovtnya-2025-foto-zagiblih_n2938244
As a result of the shelling, there is damage to infrastructure and power outages in areas, which is causing some trains to run with delays, Ukrainian Railways reports. https://weukraine.tv/suspilstvo/v-ukrzaliznitsi-poperedili-pro-zatrimku-pojizdiv-cherez-masovanij-obstril/
It seems that blackouts are returning again and in the evenings the only lights on the streets are the lights from cars and the collars on dogs that glow...
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Trump today imposed sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0290 . Better late than never.
I hope that Trump has finally realized how badly he’s been played and will not quickly relent when Putin tries to mesmerize him once again during the next phone call. Let’s also hope that he follows up today’s action by shipping requested weapons to Ukraine, removing limits on use inside Russia, using frozen Russian assets to benefit Ukraine, and even ordering the US Navy to interdict shadow oil tankers.
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Treasury sanctions major russian oil companies, calls on moscow to immediately agree to ceasefire, says a press release dated October 22 on the US Treasury website. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0290
Chinese state oil majors have suspended purchases of seaborne russian oil after the United States imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Moscow's two biggest oil companies, multiple trade sources said on Thursday. The move comes as refiners in India, the largest buyer of seaborne russian oil, are set to sharply cut their crude imports from Moscow, to comply with the U.S. sanctions imposed over the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine, reports Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-state-oil-majors-suspend-russian-oil-buys-due-sanctions-sources-say-2025-10-23/
Rosneft PJSC’s German unit may be cut off from key customers since it wasn’t excluded from the latest US sanctions against russia, people with knowledge of the matter said. Oil traders, banks and oil companies have already threatened to end relationships with Rosneft Deutschland, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. The German government is in talks with Washington in an effort to shield the unit from the penalties, they said, writes Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-23/rosneft-german-unit-may-be-cut-off-from-customers-amid-sanctions
These appear to be the first real sanctions in many years, aside from the Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries that hurt russia. But so far russia is causing more harm to Ukraine than vice versa, although globally russia is also losing.
On October 22, explosions occurred at the Plastmas military plant, which is part of the Rostec corporation and, among other things, produces and disposes of explosives, weapons, and ammunition. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-rf-vybuh-na-vijskovomu-zavodi-12-zahyblyh/33568698.html
Vladimir putin commented on the possibility of transferring Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and stated that russia would respond "shockingly" to strikes with such weapons. As for the new European Union sanctions, which include restrictions on the supply of toilets, bidets, washbasins and other plumbing equipment to russia, putin threatened Europe and said that it would cost them dearly. https://today.ua/483462-otvet-budet-oshelomlyayushim-putin-sdelal-neskolko-novyh-zayavlenij-o-vojne-v-ukraine/
The situation for Ukrainian troops in the area of Kupyansk — the city that actually holds the eastern defense line of the Kharkiv region — has noticeably worsened in recent days, Ukrainian media outlets report. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3epvvdzedzo
As a result of night-time shelling by russian troops, elements of the railway infrastructure were damaged. There were changes in train traffic in the Kharkiv, Sumy and Kirovohrad regions.
On October 24, the russians attacked critical infrastructure facilities in the Kirovohrad region, leaving 19 settlements without electricity. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/u-kirovogradskiy-oblasti-19-naselenih-punktiv-bez-svitla-cherez-ataku-rosiji-24-zhovtnya-50555119.html
This winter, ordinary Ukrainians seem to be facing a blackout like never before. Electricity outages for several hours a day have already become commonplace, and there is still uncertainty about central heating, on which most of the city's population depends. Sergiy UT3UFD decided to buy a couple more cans of fuel for the car and a few gas cylinders for the stove. I don't want to turn an apartment into a warehouse for explosives, but I also keep some gas for the tourist stove that a Polish volunteer, Tomek, brought me a couple of years ago. Yesterday we had a joint call with him and Kate, who also wants to join the volunteering. Not all Poles are bad towards Ukrainians now, and we should be grateful to them for everything they have done for us and return the favor if we can.
The authorities promise to set up aid points, but they look more like gloomy shelters for the homeless. Real salvation will likely be found at McDonald's or large gas stations with their large generators and food supplies.
The European Union put off until December a decision on whether to tap frozen ussian central bank assets to aid Ukraine, threatening an effort to get Ukraine fresh funding by early 2026. Talks stalled after Belgium demanded greater assurances it wouldn’t be held liable for risks linked to the proposed €140 billion ($163 billion) in loans, given the money is mostly held in Belgium, reports Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-23/eu-leaders-defer-russian-frozen-asset-plan-decision-to-december
At a railway station in Zhytomyr region on October 24, a man detonated a grenade during a document check. This killed a border guard and two civilian women, the press service of the National Police reports. He had previously tried to leave Ukraine. https://babel.ua/news/122493-na-zhitomirshchini-cholovik-pidirvav-granatu-na-peroni-ye-zagibli-ta-postrazhdali
https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/uploads/monthly_2025_10/image.png.c3f79fcf9d394d8543d1e440eb2fe0ba.png
As some say, he could have waited a couple of months and died already at the front, but having earned his family 15 million UAH in payments. Maybe he simply did not have a family. It seems that the old slogan "freedom or death" now sounds in a new way.
Kyiv police have opened criminal proceedings into the death of a man who sustained injuries in a mobilization center after falling to the floor. https://fakty.com.ua/ua/ukraine/20251024-upav-na-pidlogu-u-kyyevi-v-rozpodilchomu-punkti-pomer-cholovik/
If we believe the incredible fact that no one beat him and he fell himself, the question arises: how was such a strong guy allowed into the army?
Mykyta Poturayev, a parliamentarian from the pro-government Servants of the People party and head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Humanitarian and Information Policy, said that videos about the detention and beating of people by workers at mobilization centers are fakes that China and russia continue to create. https://news.telegraf.com.ua/ukr/ukraina/2025-10-24/5923817-chomu-video-busifikatsii-feyki-ta-chi-chekati-kontsert-dorna-v-kievi-blitsintervyu-z-mikitoyu-poturaevim
On the other hand, it is difficult to accuse representatives of the authorities of not believing what is happening to ordinary people, and they are probably afraid for some reason to forgo security and armored car convoys in favor of traveling on the subway to find out about it.
It was quiet in Kyiv that night, but my blood pressure rose again and I slept very badly. My head hurts even when I just try to bend over. I really want to believe that this is just due to the change in weather. My cardiologist said that he could not say anything about the condition of my head, and I do not know where to find a good doctor for this issue.
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Wlad I’m very concerned about your blood pressure combined with headache when bending over. I hope it resolves on its own and you feel better very soon, or can find a way to seek a diagnosis and treatment for it ( if not too dangerous to do so.)
Fortunately the US dollar is still the world reserve currency which is a key factor in US oil sanctions having authority and being observed by most - but not all. I’m encouraged by the responses including China and, it seems, India. Of course what they say and what they do can be very different. I believe that enforcing sanctions on shadow tankers is probably necessary.
Poturayev sounds like some in the government of many countries.. It’s all “fake news” when it goes against them but perfectly true if it favors them. Here our current administration always puts on a good show. A reliable indicator of the veracity of negative news is the amount of hyperbole and hysteria in the official denials. In particular WH press secretary Karoline Leavitt is very good at it, a real “Squealer” type.
Putin is clearly very worried about Tomahawks which is all the more reason to supply them. I hope that our President will continue to devote a few moments of his precious attention to the war - and on Ukraine’s side.
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I also don't like what's happening with my bood pressure, and the main thing is that I don't know the reasons. I hope that my condition is related to blood pressure, and not to something else. The pills allow me to keep it below 130, but it can easily rise or, conversely, drop significantly. And therefore, simply increasing the dose of the medicine is also impossible. I still hope that this is solely due to the shelling at night, when you don’t sleep for most of the night. My heart is holding up better and I feel pain only when the pressure jumps.
There was another shelling of Kyiv last night and they say that out of 9 ballistic missiles, only 4 were shot down. There were also several dozen drones. But no one has believed these figures for a long time and no one really knows what is happening. I saw a fire from a window nearby, friends wrote that one Kyiv CHP was completely destroyed and another was damaged. Some are already starting to leave Kyiv without waiting for the frost. https://life.kyiv.ua/news/balistychnyj-udar-po-kyievu-ie-zahyblyj-poshkodzheno-dytsadok-i-zhytlovi-budynky
The scale of today’s attacks is indicated by the fact that in Kyiv alone, almost 300 rescuers are clearing rubble all day. As always, the exact number of dead and injured will only be known in a few days. https://apostrophe.ua/ua/news/politics/2025-10-25/u-stolytsi-300-ryatuvalnykiv-bezperervno-boryutsya-z-naslidkamy-chergovogo-udaru-rf/355161
Ukraine has used all nine nuclear power units located in the territory under its control to produce electricity, but the russians are purposefully attacking hydro and thermal power plants to unbalance the system, and the excess energy on the right bank will not help compensate for the shortage on the left. https://apostrophe.ua/ua/news/society/2025-10-25/ukrayina-vyvela-z-remontu-vsi-pidkontrolni-energobloky-aes/355146
Today I had no electricity for three hours, and Sergiy UT3UFD had twice as much, but we enjoyed the clear air, powering the radio from batteries.
The government decided to allocate UAH 8.4 billion from the reserve fund to the Ministry of Energy for the joint-stock company "Naftogaz of Ukraine" for the purchase of imported natural gas in order to ensure the stable passage of the 2025/26 heating season. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/344583-naftogaz-poluchit-84-mlrd-grn-iz-rezervnogo-fonda-na-zakupku-importnogo-gaza-reshenie-pravitelstva
I don't know if putin is really afraid of Tomahawks or new sanctions, but he sent a special representative to the US for negotiations. Maybe this is just another attempt to fool Trump and stall for time. The Chief Executive Officer of the russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, feels confident and once again voiced a number of demands to Ukraine, after the fulfillment of which russia is allegedly ready to stop the war. The Kremlin demands that Ukraine withdraw its troops from the Donetsk region and place the region under the control of the russian Federation, the neutral status of Ukraine, which is important for russia's security," Dmitriev said. As for the negotiation process, the Kremlin representative stated that the process is moving towards a diplomatic solution "taking into account russian interests." https://www.foxnews.com/video/6383888411112
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Today I slept well, although I had some kind of delusional dream. In the morning I found out that I had slept through another attack by russian drones on one of the thermal power plants in the neighboring district. The advantage of drones is that if they don’t explode nearby, you can’t even hear them in your sleep. Which I did. The disadvantage of a missile or drone is that when they are shot down or suppressed by electronic warfare over the city, they hit random places. If you’re lucky, they fall in a park or in an open area, and if you’re not lucky, they hit a random house. In the local dense housing development, the latter happens more often.
Today in Kyiv, three people died and 29 were injured after residential buildings were hit, including 7 children. https://unn.ua/news/nichna-ataka-na-kyiv-troie-zahyblykh-desiatky-postrazhdalykh
https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/kiev/1761463371-moment-ataki-bpla-na-kiyivsku-bagatopoverhivku-potrapiv-na-video
Yesterday, as a result of a Russian missile attack on Kyiv, the warehouse complex and office of the large pharmaceutical company Optima-Pharm were completely destroyed. According to preliminary estimates, the amount of damage exceeds $ 100 million.
The warehouse area was about 29 thousand square meters. This complex was one of the key logistics hubs of the distributor, ensuring the supply of medicines to various regions of Ukraine.
The destruction of the facility was a serious blow to the pharmaceutical sector, which ensures the uninterrupted supply of medicines during the war. https://ua.news/ua/war-vs-rf/u-kiievi-znishcheno-sklad-farmdistribiutora-optima-farm-na-ponad-100-mln
I observed the smoke from this fire yesterday. Today, the afternoon was quiet and sunny. I spent half the day on the radio talking to friends and contacting the whole world. Today I even met an Italian composer.
82 Ukrainian drones attacked russia overnight, including in the Tula, Moscow, and Ryazan regions. No information is yet available on the destruction. https://24tv.ua/vibuhi-rosiyi-26102025-droni-bachili-riznih-oblastyah-skilki_n2940607
I have already spoken about the dangerous practice of imposing sanctions against Ukrainian legal entities and citizens, which has essentially become an extrajudicial procedure for their prosecution. A precedent with far-reaching consequences for Ukraine has been set: the ECHR has ruled the sanctions imposed by the National Security and Defense Council against M.S.L. unlawful.
In September 2015, the company was sanctioned, which included freezing assets, banning foreign exchange transactions, and restricting financial activities.
The ECHR made the following findings:
- Interference in M.S.L.'s operations did not meet the criterion of legality.
- The state's actions were deemed disproportionate.
- M.S.L. was not provided with meaningful access to an independent court to assess the legality of the sanctions.
- M.S.L. did not have an effective legal remedy that would have allowed it to have the sanctions lifted or reviewed.
https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/#{%22itemid%22:[%22001-245275%22]}
It's interesting to know what the state will choose: to follow Russia in leaving the ECHR or to stop violating its own laws and the rights of its citizens and companies?
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Electricity was cut off again in Kyiv today, but it was sunny and warm during the day. I think it's because I've been able to sleep well at night lately that I feel a little better. My course of high blood pressure medication is coming to an end soon and I'll be able to compare how I'll feel after it's over.
russian troops attacked Ukraine with hundreds of drones at night, 26 UAVs were hit and apparently there was again damage to the energy system. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/udar-shahedami-27-zhovtnya-rosiya-atakuvala-100-bpla-povitryani-sili-povidomili-pro-naslidki-50555701.html
I saw reports that the strategic aviation airfields "Shaykovka" and "Kaluga" in the Kaluga region of the russian federation were attacked, but there was no official confirmation. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1113348-u-rosiyi-atakovani-aerodromy-strategichnoyi-aviatsiyi
"putin is ready to accept the US concept regarding Ukraine and move forward in practical terms on the proposed basis. However, there has been no direct response from the US to this proposal," russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told russian media. https://www.ostro.org/news/lavrov-zayavyv-shho-putin-gotovyj-pryjnyaty-kontseptsiyu-ssha-shhodo-ukrayiny-i537370
The Times published a long article about Polish PM Donald Tusk, which has the headline "Ukraine is ready to fight on for three more years". “I have no doubts Ukraine will survive as an independent state,” Tusk said. “Now the main question is how many victims we will see. President Zelensky told me [on Thursday] that he hopes that the war will not last ten years, but that Ukraine is ready to fight for another two, three years.” https://www.thetimes.com/article/71896205-16b5-401e-bd92-fbe84b66925e?shareToken=40709b82a8e5972679093f840d98b341
These guys are very optimistic, while the question of where to get money for the war has still not been resolved and the state of the energy sector raises many questions about how to survive this winter. Perhaps the reasons for optimism are the numbers of Ukrainians whom the government is ready to send to the front.
Forced mobilisation is now the norm. And of Ukraine’s 3.7 million men of fighting age, officials believe over half a million are in hiding. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/23/man-with-worst-job-in-ukraine/
It would seem that three million people should be enough for more than three years at the current level of losses, but things are not that simple.
Every month, Ukraine recruits about 30 thousand personnel into the army under contract and mobilization. At the same time, from 15 to 50% of people who come to serve in combat brigades upon mobilization should not end up in combat positions for various reasons, analysts of the Center for Initiatives "Return Alive" (RA) claim, based on the results of a study.
The way in which mobilization is carried out has led to the fact that the Ukrainian army currently has a very low quality of human resources and a constant shortage of people. People who cannot perform tasks on the front line due to health conditions or have reasons for postponing service that were not taken into account at the mobilization stage end up in combat units, the RA say.
Such replenishment significantly burdens combat brigades and does not solve the problem of the shortage of servicemen. After all, these people have to be sent for repeated medical examinations, transferred to rear positions, dismissed from service, and deterred from desertion. And at the same time, the state spends money on training, support, and social guarantees for people who hold positions on paper but do not benefit the army.
All the shortcomings of the mobilization process at the stages preceding the recruits' entry directly into the unit, taken together, create a situation where the accumulated problems that were ignored fall on the shoulders of the brigade, the RA says. And mobilization does not fulfill its main task - to staff combat positions in combat brigades.
The shortcomings of how the mobilization process is carried out at all stages and what challenges it poses to the Defense Forces and society do not seem to be systematically analyzed by either the state or the military, although sometimes individual military personnel already speak about it openly.
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/mobilizatsia-ne-vyrishue-problemu-nestachi-liudey/33568501.html
I saw the idea of what effective mobilization should be and I cannot disagree with it. Only coercion and only money do not work without an ideological and moral-psychological platform and will never provide the troops with the high-quality, trained, motivated and disciplined resource necessary for conducting combat operations.
The main goal of mobilization is to strengthen defense capabilities. This means that mobilization should not harm the image and authority of the army, reduce the morale of society, undermine trust in the authorities, provoke civil conflicts. Otherwise, it contributes to the weakening of the state's defense capabilities, not its strengthening.
Carrying out effective mobilization measures is impossible without the support of society not only for ideological, but also for purely organizational reasons. Therefore, an integral part of mobilization should be: ideological work with citizens (what we are fighting for), propaganda (what will happen as a result of defeat), strengthening the image and authority of the army (real and permanent, not in words, but in deeds), ensuring the principle of justice during mobilization (eradicating corruption, preventing the use of opaque and subjective criteria for reservations and deferrals, equal treatment of all categories of conscripts, regardless of age or place of residence, etc.).
In a democratic state, even mobilization should be carried out with respect for human rights and ensuring the rule of law. The right to protection and an objective trial should be guaranteed.
Calling up unmotivated and sick people to the army is not strengthening, but destroying the army. https://glavcom.ua/columns/nataliicshenko/jakoju-maje-buti-efektivna-mobilizatsija-1084998.html
And so far, the Ukrainian labor market in 2025 faced an unprecedented challenge - the labor shortage exceeded 8.7 million people. According to experts, even the full return of labor migrants and refugees is not able to compensate for the losses caused by the war, demographic decline and mass emigration.
The government is considering immigration liberalization scenarios - in particular, simplifying work permits for citizens of Asian, Caucasian and Balkan countries. At the same time, business calls not only to import labor, but also to create conditions for the return of Ukrainians who have left abroad. https://fbc.biz.ua/news/ekonomika-uk/ukrayina-perezhivaye-rekordnu-kadrovu-krizu-shho-vidomo/
The organization of post-war renewal is an extremely important process that cannot be implemented without the help of business. However, there are reasonable suspicions that the state will not be able to establish effective cooperation with business.
Tetyana Korotka, Deputy Business Ombudsman, who oversees the direction of renewal, believes that in general the country lacks a vision of the renewal of Ukraine as a comprehensive process related to the structural changes in the economy that have occurred.
Renewal is not just about rebuilding or building something. It is also a question of a vision of the future economic model, and scenarios for the development of events, and our place in the world, which is changing so rapidly.
A separate issue for investers is cooperation with a state that does not fulfill its obligations and creates additional problems. https://zn.ua/ukr/reforms/najkrashchi-akti-pidpisuje-prokuror-abo-chi-khoche-biznes-vidnovljuvati-ukrajinu.html
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"3 years ago it was a casting agency. Now it has $1 billion in drone contracts". This is the title of the investigation published by The New York Times. Among the flood of Ukrainian defense start-ups, one stands out to both its supporters and its critics: the drone maker Fire Point. At the start of the full-scale war in February 2022, the company that became Fire Point was a casting agency for film and television productions, according to Ukrainian government registration documents. Its legally listed owner, Yehor Skalyha, is the chief executive of another company, At Point, that scouts film locations. Fire Point’s chief technology officer, Iryna Terekh, previously ran a company that made concrete outdoor furniture. Now, the company is one of the largest contractors for the Ukrainian military, with $1 billion in contracts this year, according to its executives.
Fire Point emerged from the same Ukrainian film and television industry where Mr. Zelensky, a former comedian, worked before his election as president in 2019. The film scouting company led by Fire Point’s owner was credited with location work for a 2016 romantic comedy starring Mr. Zelensky, “Eight Best Dates.” It has also worked on dozens of other productions unrelated to the president’s former film career. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/world/europe/ukraine-fire-point-drones-flamingo.html
It is very interesting to watch the development of this extraordinary company, whose success is envied by the leading rocket companies in the world. By a strange coincidence, they stopped talking about the start of the use of its Flamingo missiles after the US refused to provide Ukraine with Tomahawks.
But not everyone is doing so well. According to a survey among 35 private defense manufacturers, 51% have left or plan to leave. Of these 51%, 78% plan to move or have already moved production, the same number of technology rights, and 67% of R&D offices. Most often, manufacturers choose Poland, the Czech Republic, the USA, Slovakia, and Estonia for relocation. Manufacturers would leave their facilities in Ukraine if they had access to exports, predictable and stable government orders, increased procurement volumes, and the opportunity to create joint ventures with international partners. https://tech.liga.net/ua/technology/novosti/78-miltech-kompaniy-uzhe-vyvely-abo-planuiut-vyvesty-za-kordon-vyrobnytstvo-dani-tsu
Hungary is looking to join forces with Czechia and Slovakia to form a Ukraine-skeptic alliance in the EU, a top political adviser to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-anti-ukraine-bloc-czechia-slovakia-viktor-orban-andrej-babis-robert-fico/
“I hate to say it, but Kyiv won’t last till spring” — this is the startling thesis of journalist Roger Boyes’ column, he wrote for The Times. While Ukrainians are enchanted by their own resilience, the West seems to be finally tired of war. Money for weapons, heat, and Ukraine’s health is melting away, and the desire to support Kyiv is fading. https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/i-hate-to-say-it-but-kyiv-wont-last-till-spring-5vlv0mb8j
Ukraine is about to suffer its most brutal winter since russia invaded in 2022. That isn’t a risk but a certainty as both sides sense they’re blocked on the ground and focus on the long-range air war. russia has a plan for victory and the Ukrainians have one for survival. The question is whether Kyiv’s allies have a plan at all. The short answer is no, or at least not yet, writes Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-29/ukraine-war-kyiv-has-a-plan-for-victory-its-allies-don-t?srnd=phx-opinion-politics-and-policy
Whatever the outcome, the Xi-Trump meeting is a win for China, writes CNN. For Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a landmark meeting with Donald Trump expected this week is a moment to showcase something Beijing has long sought: China standing as an equal to the United States on the global stage. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/28/china/xi-trump-meeting-analysis-intl-hnk
This could be a chance for Ukraine if it had a decent diplomatic service and patriotic politicians of international standing. For China, Ukraine could be an interesting ally, and for Europe - a hub, given its unique geographical location, provided that the US lost interest in Ukraine.
russia’s State Duma passed a law on Oct. 28 allowing military conscription to take place throughout the entire year, russian state propaganda agency TASS reported. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned on July 25 that russia was preparing to implement new measures to accelerate the pace and scale of conscription and mobilization. Analysts say the new law will make it easier for Moscow to conduct rapid mobilization and deploy troops more efficiently across its military units. https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/russia-passes-law-for-year-round-military-conscription-50556188.html
This could be a chance for Ukraine if it had a decent diplomatic service and patriotic politicians of international level. For China, Ukraine could be an interesting ally, and for Europe - a hub, given its unique geographical position, provided that the US lost interest in Ukraine.
Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko announced that the Cabinet of Ministers reported to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky on the first 100 days of work of the new government. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/344885-pravitelstvo-sviridenko-otchitalos-zelenskomu-o-100-dnyakh-raboty-foto
Neither to people nor to the nation...
Today, the enemy struck energy facilities in Dnipropetrivsk, Donetsk and Odesa regions. https://kurs.com.ua/novost/1414233-rossijane-obstreljali-anergetiku-v-treh-oblastjah-prodolzhajutsja-vosstanovitelnie-raboti In Kyiv, power outages also continue throughout the day.
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Explosions were heard in Zaporizhia and the region last night, after which power outages began in some areas of the city. https://ua.news/ua/war-vs-rf/zaporizhzhia-znestrumilo-pislia-udaru-rosiiskikh-kabiv
The enemy also attacked a critical infrastructure facility in the center of Chernihiv. Later it became known that it was a television tower. https://fakty.com.ua/ua/proisshestvija/20251029-vybuhy-v-chernigovi-shho-stalosya-sogodni-29-zhovtnya-2025/
On the night of October 30, Ukraine suffered a large-scale attack from russia. Kalibr cruise missiles were launched from the sea, Kh-101 from the Tu-95MS from the air, as well as Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from the MiG-31K. At the same time, Shahed drones attacked most of the regions. The main targets were the western regions and cities with important energy facilities.
The Air Force indicates that russia attacked with 52 missiles (9 of them ballistic) and 653 drones. Of the four Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, none were shot down, as well as none of the Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Of the eight Kalibr cruise missiles, seven were shot down, of the 30 Kh-101, 21 were shot down, and of the two Iskander-K, one was shot down. The Air Force also indicates that most of the drones were shot down or brought down. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cgr4q08l18xo
A list of all the sites attacked would take up a page. The attacks have led to emergency power outages in many regions.
Although I didn’t hear any explosions at night, I slept very poorly and in the morning I found out that I had very high blood pressure. I had to take strong medications for just such cases in addition to the ones I was already taking. Next week, if nothing changes, I will have to go to the doctor again. I was unable to do anything until lunchtime and in the afternoon I went to a meeting in the center to discuss my plan for making business supporting foreign investments with a friend. She agreed to join my team and will take care of some aspects of the project. Then I went to the court nearby, where my friend asked to hold his claim. But due to the lack of electricity, the court hearing was postponed.
I returned very tired, but found that the heating had been turned on in the house. It seems that this is a rare case when the confrontation between the central and local authorities benefits ordinary people. After the government announced the beginning of the heating season, the mayor of Kyiv could not allow himself to be blamed for the lack of heat.
Two Ukrainian soldiers held positions on the front line for 165 days without rotation and under fire, the 138th separate battalion of the Territorial Defense Forces reported. They were awarded. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/viyskovi-165-dniv-utrimuvali-poziciji-oleksandr-tishayev-i-oleksandr-aliksyeyenko-otrimali-nagorodi-50556853.html
Sounds good for propaganda, although it would be better to hear how they ended up in this situation and whether those who allowed it were punished? If the military leadership believes that this is normal, then most of those they are trying to mobilize do not agree with this.
In the Poltava region, two servicemen of the mobilization center received gunshot wounds while detaining a man who started shooting at them. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1116855.html
In Odessa, on the morning of October 30, during mobilization, loaders attacked servicemen at the mobilization center, during which the men overturned a minibus. About 50 people took part in the attack, and the military personnel themselves were beaten, as can be seen in numerous videos. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cdx4qkk4e47o?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
Instead of a civilized and comprehensive solution to the problem by the authorities, some deputies are adding to the tension.
The Verkhovna Rada is working on the seizure of property and accounts of individuals who avoid service by leaving a military unit without permission, said Ruslan Gorbenko, a member of the Verkhovna Rada's National Security and Defense Committee and a member of the pro-government "Servant of the People" faction. He noted also that the enemy severely punishes - shoots - those soldiers who refuse to carry out their tasks. https://www.unian.ua/society/szch-nardep-gorbenko-vidpoviv-yaki-pokarannya-budut-zastosovuvati-dlya-takih-osib-13177380.html
Should we consider this as a hint at the possibility of acting like the russians? What is the war about then?
The decision to expand the mobilization of women will be made promptly if necessary. The involvement of women in the Armed Forces is constantly discussed. However, it is not currently an urgent issue in the parliamentary defense committee, committee member MP Yuriy Zdebsky said in an interview. https://news.telegraf.com.ua/ukr/ukraina/2025-10-30/5924321-zaminili-b-bagato-khloptsiv-deputat-zdebskiy-rozkriv-koli-pochnetsya-mobilizatsiya-zhinok
Roman Sopin, 43, who died in hospital on October 23, was seriously injured at a distribution point after being mobilized. Journalists have published the conclusion of a forensic medical examination into the death of the draftee, according to which death was caused by a blunt object to the head. It may have been the floor he allegedly fell on, as the police insist, but the lawyer and the deceased's family are certain that he was murdered. https://24tv.ua/roman-sopin-pomer-pislya-travmi-tupim-predmetom-novi-detali-skandalu_n2941999
In the case of the beating of a lawyer, the cancellation of his postponement and the forceful mobilization, the Pechersky District Court of Kyiv ordered the Prosecutor General's Office to immediately initiate criminal proceedings. Before that, the National Bar Association of Ukraine appealed to the Prosecutor General's Office with a statement about the commission of criminal offenses, liability for which is provided for in Art. 146 (illegal deprivation of liberty or kidnapping of a person), Art. 122 (intentional moderate bodily harm), Art. 361 (unauthorized interference with the operation of information and communication systems), Art. 371 (knowingly illegal detention, pretext, arrest or detention) and Art. 397 (interference in the activities of a defense attorney or representative of a person) of the Criminal Code. However, law enforcement officers ignored the statement about the crime. https://unba.org.ua/news/10895-nezakonna-mobilizaciya-advokata-naau-domoglasya-vidkrittya-kriminal-nogo-provadzhennya.html
If it took even lawyers a huge effort to achieve just the first step on the path to restoring legality, what can we say about ordinary people?
Meanwhile, almost 100,000 fighting-age Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 22 have left the country in the past two months after Volodymyr Zelensky eased departure rules, new figures show. When russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, martial law blocked Ukrainian men aged from 18 to 60 – even if they were not eligible to be drafted into the armed forces – from leaving the country.
The rising number of Ukrainians will pile pressure on Mr Merz to cut support for refugees from the war-torn country sheltering in Germany. The far-Right AfD, which is polling in first place, has called for Berlin to suspend aid payments to Ukrainians, as well as voicing opposition to military support for Kyiv, writes The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/29/100000-young-men-flee-ukraine-two-months/
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky signed two laws - extending the term of martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days, from November 5 to February 3.
But problems with mobilization exist not only in Ukraine. Clashes have broken out between demonstrators and passersby as hundreds of thousands of haredim have been convening in Jerusalem on Thursday to protest the proposed military conscription law for ultra orthodox in Israel, dubbed the “Million Man March”, writes The Jerusalem Post. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-872174
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A combined russian strike on Ukraine’s energy sector on Thursday, October 30, damaged substations critical to Ukraine’s nuclear safety and security, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said.
IAEA teams at the Yuzhno-Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant and Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant reported that each plant had lost access to one of its external power lines.
Meanwhile, the IAEA team at the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant reported that the plant had reduced the capacity of two of its four power units at the request of the grid operator. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-324-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine
Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s defence intelligence, gave an interview to the Italian Il Foglio. "Here we make Ukraine or we die", he said and I completely agree with him. After all, he is one of the smartest people in Ukraine who is in power. https://www.ilfoglio.it/esteri/2025/10/25/news/-here-we-make-ukraine-or-we-die-tell-us-kyrylo-budanov-8250667/
German Development Minister Reem Alabali Radovan arrived in Kyiv on October 30 as she sought to convince German businesses to invest in Ukraine in a bid to shore up support for the war-torn country. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/german-development-minister-kiev-boost-162927689.html
"The reconstruction of Ukraine is not possible without a strong economy. That is why we continue to support the resilience of Ukrainian companies," Alabali Radovan said in the Ukrainian capital.
Ukraine has adopted a law on the National Development Institution, a specialized state bank whose main task will be to lend to projects for the reconstruction of Ukraine. This institution will operate on the model of a “bank of banks” and will finance areas that private capital considers too risky. https://minfin.com.ua/ua/2025/10/28/161299702/
The law provides for overcoming problems with financing relocated businesses, enterprises in frontline regions, businesses of internally displaced persons, as well as projects with an increased level of risk; attracting funds from private investors and directing them to the restoration of the economy through various financial instruments; supporting, first of all, small and medium-sized businesses that have found themselves in difficult conditions but have the potential for restoration and development.
Separately, the law contains provisions that launch a program of insurance of military risks in frontline regions, which has long been requested by business and ordinary citizens.
Time will tell how it will be implemented, but so far economists say that the outflow of capital from Ukraine exceeds the inflow, and investors are fleeing the market. Ukraine is gradually turning into a platform for earning "quick money" on agricultural and mineral raw materials and is degrading to the level of a regional center for the outflow of private capital abroad. https://zn.ua/ukr/macroeconomics/den-babaka-chi-zmozhe-ukrajinska-ekonomika-zrostati-bez-vidkativ.html
But what can be said about Ukraine during the war, if even India’s central bank now holds more than 65% of its gold reserves at home, nearly double the share from four years ago, accelerating the repatriation of the precious metal after Western nations froze russia’s reserves following the invasion of Ukraine. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-29/india-central-bank-accelerates-repatriation-of-gold-held-abroad
russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman wants to buy a company that provides cloud services for “Diya” and other state structures of Ukraine. At the same time, the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine does not see any risks in this, according to the journalistic investigation of Heorhiy Shabaev. https://www.facebook.com/george.shabaev/posts/pfbid02Z9yrGssTZPtUFFAB8hZ5ca3o54M27UxVoYanX9GhcCXR2MkaJU5nEyuqm7o2iMhWl?locale=uk_UA
“It turns out that PrJSC “Kyivstar”, which is controlled by a sanctioned russian oligarch through a number of foreign legal entities, intends to buy 80% of GigaCloud shares. GigaCloud is the largest Ukrainian provider of cloud services, which serves more than 1,500 clients, including the state-owned “Diya”, the National Social Security Fund, the Ministry of Social Policy, UkrAirorukh, the State Security Department and the Odessa Sea Port,” the report says. He emphasizes that in the case of the sale of shares, conditions are created for leaks of data of “Diya” users.
This is the huge database of Ukrainians from which there have already been data leaks and the origin of the program code of which is also from russia. Despite this, the state forces its use by transferring many services there.
The BBC conducted a large-scale study on Russian war casualties. According to the collected data, the total losses of pro-russian forces could be between 241,133 and 341,471 service members.
The number of volunteers killed continues to rise and now accounts for 30.5% of all confirmed casualties. The proportion of prisoners is gradually declining and now stands at 13% (for comparison, a year ago, prisoners of war accounted for 19% of all confirmed deaths).
This is primarily due to the fact that people are now being sent to the front even before their trial. Last year, the State Duma passed laws allowing criminal proceedings to be suspended if the accused signed a contract with the army. Such people were considered volunteers. https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cy4pr0wk2rwo
I don't know to what extent these figures reflect real losses, as a significant portion of the dead are left to rot in the fields.
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Seva returned to Ukraine today. More precisely, he arrived in Lviv, where he plans to live. This is all we know about his intentions, and we can only guess about the reasons for the move.
Today, Kyiv is calm, and only in Chernihiv in the evening there were explosions.
Explosions also erupted in russia on the night of November 1. There are reports of attacks by almost 100 Ukrainian drones in ten regions of russia at once. https://glavred.net/world/doma-azh-tryaslo-a-pod-moskvoy-pogas-svet-drony-massirovanno-atakovali-rossiyu-10711343.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
The Wall Street Journal writes about how China enables russia’s military. New evidence shows the supply-chain trail aiding Moscow’s drone makers. https://archive.is/20251029221528/https://www.wsj.com/opinion/china-russia-military-ukraine-xi-jinping-donald-trump-vladimir-putin-e7a26ee0
Ukraine landed special forces to fight in embattled parts of the eastern city of Pokrovsk earlier this week, just as russia said it had surrounded Kyiv's forces in the area, two Ukrainian military sources said on Friday.
The operation shows how Ukraine is battling to stabilise the situation in the strategically important city after scores of russian troops breached its perimeter this month. russia's capture of Pokrovsk, an important road and rail hub, could enable further advances into the eastern Donetsk region, which russia aims to fully occupy. Moscow's military has been inching forward towards Pokrovsk for over a year.
The operation was overseen by military spy chief Kyrylo Budanov, and the troops headed to areas of the city claimed by russia and seen by Moscow as vital for Ukrainian supply lines, Reuters writes. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-lands-special-forces-embattled-pokrovsk-sources-say-2025-10-31/
Likely not for “logistics” but to open the gap wider so troops can withdrawal. This is also a great opportunity for Budanov's PR, whose media presence has recently been competing with the president's.
It seems to me that despite everything, Pokrovsk will soon fall into the hands of the Russians, like Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and other cities before it.
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Is there perhaps a romantic interest that would explain Seva’s move?
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It is. Time will show how strong it is.
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What do my Polish friend and the French author of "The Defeat of the West" Emmanuel Todd have in common? How little they actually know about russia and Ukraine. And this explains the success that russian propaganda has in the West.
What do my Polish friend, with whom I recently spoke, and the Frenchman Emmanuel Todd, the author of russophile book "The Defeat of the West", which I am currently reading, have in common? How little they actually know about russia and Ukraine. And this explains the success that russian propaganda has in the West. In Todd's case, I'm not at all sure that he didn't simply write a propaganda book commissioned by the russians, given the number of monstrous errors that in places completely repeat russian propaganda. But it clearly demonstrates how russian lies and propaganda are broadcast in the West, and what's worse, many people sincerely believe it. But it is worth reading it at least to calm down - the West is not in danger of defeat.
Poland has recorded intensive psychological operations against Ukraine in Poland by russia. The growth of anti-Ukrainian sentiment is observed in places where there are nodes of assistance for the transfer of weapons, the Polish General Staff reported on the social network X.
In particular, the Polish General Staff recorded russian information operations and incitement to anti-Ukrainian sentiment. They are manifested in the burning of Ukrainian cars, the drawing of anti-war murals - and intensive information activity on the Internet, on portals and accounts of persons who propagate sentiments of hatred towards Ukraine.
The country's General Staff summarized that russia is carrying out aggressive actions against Ukraine and their sole purpose is to fill the Polish population with fear and a sense of threat due to the presence of Ukrainians in Poland. https://x.com/sztabgenwp/status/1985279185200316761?s=46
I am not surprised that russia, as always, is counting on fear and ignorance. This is also the target group of populist politicians, whose influence has recently been growing in the West.
The President of Ukraine announced another "winter support" program, similar to last year's, which provides direct assistance to citizens in the amount of 1,000 hryvnias (approximately 24 US dollars). The government, apparently, again did not find where the warring Ukraine can spend the money received from the West. But political PR turned out to be more in demand...
Even as a social program, this is a bad decision, because the lack of targeting of assistance, for which the previous "thousands" were criticized, persists.
Direct payments to the population do not stimulate real production, but rather create the illusion of well-being, accelerating inflation and distorting demand, because resources are spent not where they are really needed.
The government also promises 18-25 year olds up to 200 thousand hryvnias (approximately 4,762 US dollars) to start a business. From 2026: 100 thousand without jobs, 200 thousand for one job created, 350 thousand for two.
These are not new resources, but a budgetary redistribution of money from some to others. The decision on where the capital will go is made by the official, not the market; the "knowledge problem" is at work, so presentable applications are funded, not the most profitable ideas. Part of the grants will go to consumption and "paper" vacancies.
Crowding out occurs: taxpayers and competitors subsidize the chosen ones, costs and prices increase. In the real economy, jobs are created by profit, not subsidies. It would be better to reduce taxes on labor and start-ups, deregulate registration/closure, as implemented, for example, in Poland.
The government should stop playing the role of a generous welfare state and redirect budget funds from populist programs to reducing the tax burden.
The "Ukrzaliznytsia 3000" project will also be launched - free rail travel within 3,000 kilometers during the "low" season. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/4054782-na-zimovu-pidtrimku-v-budzeti-peredbacili-ponad-14-milardiv-koli-podavati-zaavku.html Perhaps this is a hidden form of subsidizing the state-owned monopoly company.
The budget allocates almost 350 million US dollars for all this populism.
Ukraine is showing "remarkable commitment" to joining the EU, but must reverse recent negative trends in the fight against corruption and accelerate rule of law reforms, the European Commission said in a draft text seen by Reuters. While praising Ukraine for launching reform processes, the European Commission also said that Kyiv needs to make more progress on judicial independence, fighting organised crime and respecting civil society. European officials have previously raised concerns about steps taken in July to establish greater control by Ukraine’s prosecutor general, a political appointee, over the country’s anti-corruption bureau and a specialised prosecution unit.
Rare wartime protests led Ukraine's leadership to quickly reverse course, but the episode caught the attention of Ukraine’s supporters in Brussels and EU capitals.
"Recent negative trends, including a growing pressure on the specialised anti-corruption agencies and civil society, must be decisively reversed," the Commission said in the draft text. https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-committed-eu-accession-should-do-more-rule-law-commission-draft-says-2025-11-03/
The National Bank expects that the volume of international assistance will be sufficient for emission-free financing of Ukraine's budget deficit. The NBU assumes that in 2025 Ukraine will receive $51.5 billion, in 2026 - over $45 billion, and in 2027 - $39 billion. This will allow maintaining international reserves at an adequate level, sufficient to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market. https://epravda.com.ua/finances/yakiy-prognoz-nacbanku-shchodo-mizhnarodnoji-dopomogi-813620/
Ukraine is set to receive over €1.8 billion in funding after the Council adopted a decision on the fifth regular disbursement of support under the EU's Ukraine Facility. This amount reflects Ukraine’s successful completion of nine steps required for the fifth disbursement, as well as one outstanding step from the fourth disbursement. The funding aims primarily to bolster Ukraine’s macro-financial stability and support the continued operation of its public administration. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/11/04/ukraine-facility-council-approves-fifth-payment-of-over-19-billion-to-kyiv/?utm_source=brevo&utm_campaign=AUTOMATED%20-%20Alert%20-%20Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_id=3318
Simply put, the Zelensky regime has once again received money for good behavior.
The UK government recently resupplied Ukraine with more Storm Shadow cruise missiles to enable Kyiv to continue its campaign of long-range strikes inside russia, Bloomberg reports. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/uk-sends-ukraine-more-storm-shadow-missiles-to-strike-in-russia?srnd=homepage-europe&embedded-checkout=true
Top Western oil companies are enjoying a windfall from the expanding attacks on russia's oil industry – both literal and economic – that have boosted global refining profit margins and mitigated concerns over a looming supply glut.
Curtailed russian exports have boosted global refining margins, benefiting energy giants like Shell, Exxon Mobil, Chevron and France's TotalEnergies, which jointly operate nearly 11 million bpd, over 10% of global refining capacity. The four companies posted a combined 61% rise in profits from refining operations in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, which contributed in large part to their 20% rise in overall profits, Reuters writes. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/big-oil-gets-big-boost-escalating-economic-war-russia-2025-11-03/
Only a blind person would not see the connection between these events, which are taking place at the expense of Ukrainians.
The summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his American counterpart Donald Trump was a breakthrough in bilateral relationship where the Asian giant was treated as an “equal partner” of the US, according to David Daokui Li, a regular policy adviser to Beijing.
Still, Li expressed optimism that trade, financial and technological conflicts between the countries are “small potatoes” that will be resolved. More important, he said, the equal partnership will see the powers engage in “bigger talks” such as security issues concerning Ukraine, Taiwan, the South China Sea and the Middle East.
While details are still trickling out, the US and China came away from the gathering with a broad agreement spanning tariffs and export controls on critical minerals. The two leaders also agreed to “work together” to “get the war with russia and Ukraine solved,” according to Trump, Bloomberg reports. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/beijing-adviser-says-us-talks-cement-china-as-equal-partner?srnd=homepage-europe
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Despite the fact that central heating has been turned on in Kyiv, I have caught a cold or an infection somewhere. The weather is still good and perhaps because of this there are still no major air raids. A few missiles and more than a hundred drones are no longer considered a major attack. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/11/03/novyna/bezpeka/rosiya-vnochi-atakuvala-ukrayinu-troma-vydamy-raket-ta-majzhe-140-bpla-yak-vidpracyuvala-ppo
Over the past few days, energy facilities in the Donetsk region have been damaged. https://rubryka.com/2025/11/02/usya-donechchyna-znestrumlena-vnaslidok-udariv-rosiyan-po-energetychnij-infrastrukturi/
Also russian attacks on energy facilities left some consumers in Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv regions without electricity. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/4054189-cerez-rosijski-obstrili-castkovo-znestrumleni-spozivaci-u-troh-oblastah-minenergo.html
The Navy confirmed the strike on Ukrainian military personnel on November 1 in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Among the dead and wounded are both civilians and servicemen of the 30th Marine Corps, who, according to media reports, had gathered there for an award ceremony. https://cxid.media/news/u-vms-pidtverdyly-udar-po-viyskovykh-na-dnipropetrovshchyni-1-lystopada/
After blogger Ramina Eshakzai published photos allegedly from a distribution mobilization center in Kyiv, showing improper and unsanitary conditions, the Ministry of Defense responded to a request from MP Oleksandr Fedienko that it had stopped the center's operations. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/345345-kievskiy-gorodskoy-ttsk-priostanovil-rabotu-sbornogo-punkta-na-dvrz-nardep-fedienko
I don't know if anything has really changed there, but it seems like the state and the army are very annoyed when some their actions are caught on camera.
The Primorsky District Court of Odesa found a woman guilty of distributing information about mobilization measures on TikTok. According to investigators, such videos had a demoralizing effect and hindered the activities of servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/345331-odessitka-byla-osuzhdena-za-tiktok-video-sud-priznal-ee-vinovnoy-v-prepyatstvovanii-deyatelnosti-vsu
So it turns out that illegally beating and humiliating, depriving some people of their freedom is normal, but showing it on video is bad because it demoralizes others?
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“Sunlight is the best disinfectant”. They want to stay in the shadows, like vampires and ghouls.
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Yuriy Ignat, a spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, explained why it has become more difficult for Ukraine's MIM-104 Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to shoot down russian ballistic missiles. russian ballistic missiles fly on a so-called quasi-ballistic trajectory - they change their flight path when approaching a target, and it has become more difficult for Patriot systems to calculate the point of hitting such ballistics with their missiles. Everything is also complicated by the fact that there are much more russian ballistic missiles than Patriot systems that are capable of shooting them down. https://redaktor.com.ua/2025/10/05/ignat-poyasnyv-chomu-stalo-vazhche-zbyvaty-rosijsku-balistyku/
Moreover, russia is working on a new modification of the missile - "Iskander-1000", which will have a doubled range - 1000 km. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/rosiyi-pratsyuyut-raketoyu-iskander-1000-1762327392.html
The russian army has once again received new Su-35S aircraft, and this is the sixth batch of these aircraft this year. In total, taking into account previous contracts, the russian Aerospace Forces have received an estimated 135 serial Su-35S fighters from 2012 to the end of 2024. The aircraft's combat load is 8,000 kg. Among other things, the Su-35S can use the R-37M air-to-air missile and aerial bombs weighing up to 3000kg with a range of approximately 200 km, which they also mass-produce. https://www.unian.ua/weapons/su-36s-rf-otrimala-vzhe-shostu-v-comu-roci-partiyu-vinishchuvachiv-foto-13183707.html
https://ua.news/ua/war-vs-rf/rosiia-pochala-seriine-virobnitstvo-kerovanikh-aviabomb-z-dalnistiu-do-200-km-gur
This news refutes what we have been hearing in recent years about russia's decline and the inability of them to produce anything more technological than a stone axe and a spear due to sanctions.
More than 30 years after the end of the Cold War, the risk of nuclear weapons being used is very high, writes Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmontgomery/2025/11/04/the-growing-danger-of-nuclear-stockpiles-around-the-world/?ss=aerospace-defense
On November 5, 2025, Air Force Global Strike Command conducted a test launch of an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California, on November 5, 2025. This test, designated GT 254, evaluated the ongoing reliability, operational readiness, and accuracy of the ICBM system, a cornerstone of America's national defense. https://www.afgsc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/4328373/gt-254-afgsc-validates-reliability-readiness-of-icbm-force-with-minuteman-iii-t/
Yesterday I heard on russian radio that Vladimir putin instructed security forces and civil services to prepare for nuclear weapons tests. He called the situation related to US President Donald Trump's statement about American nuclear tests a serious issue.
Earlier, the media wrote that in March 2023, putin discussed with Chinese President Xi Jinping the idea of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine to change the situation on the front. The then US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, said that the Chinese leader categorically rejected this idea.
I do not think that China has changed its mind, but the situation is becoming increasingly tense, since russia can use nuclear weapons, for example, on the territory of Ukraine or Poland, also to demonstrate its determination to use them not only on the US and Europe, but also on China. On the other hand, this creates a common interest for the US and China. Russia becomes a problem that they will have to solve together.
Previously one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies, Czechia could be on course to dial down its support for Kyiv under the new government being formed by presumptive PM Andrej Babiš. That’s according to Filip Turek, the controversial former Patriots MEP who looks set to become Prague’s new foreign minister and spoke to POLITICO in his first international interview. https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/epp-vs-epp/
Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have returned home from the front lines missing limbs – many of them will require support for the rest of their lives. But not all of these amputations are purely the result of direct hits sustained on the battlefield, writes The Telegraph.
Ukraine’s chief military surgeon has said that up to one in four of those amputations are down to improper use of a simple piece of medical kit: tourniquets. The concern is that Ukraine’s current medical doctrine – which is based on the way the US and its allies handled casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan – does not suit the nature of this war of attrition. It is the result of tourniquets being used on the wrong injuries and left on too long first hand in Ukraine.
Everybody in Ukraine has been affected by this conflict and will continue to be affected by it for decades to come, economically, psychologically, and socially, but many of the soldiers currently fighting for Ukraine are conscripts. They’ve been ordered by the states to report for duty and put themselves in harm’s way to protect the notion of Ukraine as a sovereign nation. So when citizens agree to undertake that part of the deal, the unwritten contract is that the state will look after them, should they come to harm, whether that’s their psychological health or their physical health. If that contract is broken, the consequences can be profound. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/why-ukraines-troops-are-facing-an-amputation-crisis/
I don't know how widespread this is, but I've seen several interviews with wounded soldiers who said that after receiving first aid and surgery in the hospital, further treatment and rehabilitation were at their own expense. At the same time, such soldiers received only minimum wage.
The authorities are going to simplify the admission to the police of combat veterans who were wounded, injured, contused, or ill during hostilities in eastern Ukraine or in the conditions of a full-scale war with the russian federation. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/345492-kabmin-odobril-zakonoproekt-ob-uproschenii-priema-v-politsiyu-veteranov-boevykh-deystviy
Previously, mobilization centers were filled with veterans, which led to conflicts with mobilized people. Questions also arise from the HRs to lawyers about what to do with veterans who occasionally behave inappropriately, but there is no reason to dismiss them. Especially when they refuse to admit their mental health problems and seek treatment.
Instead, the state, instead of rehabilitation and support programs, shifts these problems to business and society. In the case of the police and mobilization centers, this is generally unacceptable. The nature of work in these services requires not only a strong psyche, but also special training for working with people in conflict situations. Instead, the state offers people with PTSD to work in the most unfavorable conditions. Can you imagine how those who have received injuries incompatible with further service will communicate on the street with those who do not want to serve at all? Add to that the fact that some of them will have power and weapons, while others will not. What if both sides have weapons?
During the visit of the famous actress Angelina Jolie to Ukraine on November 4, after a check at a checkpoint near the city of Pivdennoukrainsk, her driver was mobilized, the command of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported. https://www.unian.ua/society/tck-zatrimali-vodiya-z-kortezhu-dzholi-v-suhoputnih-viyskah-poyasnili-situaciyu-13187016.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
Judging by the reaction of people and the media, Jolie's visit would have gone almost unnoticed if not for this mobilization incident.
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When I woke up this morning, I was surprised by two things: I didn't have a headache and there was no electricity. The second part is connected with the fact that I didn't hear anything at night and slept very well. Then I read the news that two apartment buildings were on fire in central Kyiv.
It turned out that on the night of November 8, russia launched a combined strike on the territory of Ukraine using missiles and drones. As a result, emergency power outages were introduced in Kyiv, which caused a traffic collapse in the city. Trolleybuses and trams stopped, and there were even problems in the subway. https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-news/nahabnij-i-demonstrativnij-udar-zelenskij-zaklikav-svit-ne-zalishati-putinu-shansiv-prodovzhuvati-vijnu.htm
A strike on an apartment building in the city of Dnipro killed two people and wounded 12, while three died in Zaporizhzhia. In all, 25 locations across Ukraine, including the capital city Kyiv, were hit, leaving many areas without electricity and heating. Major energy facilities were damaged in the Poltava, Kharkiv and Kyiv regions, there were power cuts in the Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhya, Odesa and Kirovohrad regions. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3xdg7xrv9o
In the Kharkiv region and Kharkiv, in some places there is no electricity for many hours, and there are problems with heating and water supply. In Kyiv, the availability of electricity depended on the area, but given the cost of fuel, our favorite cafe is already questioning the feasibility of running a business with generator power. Small businesses, such as those that allow you to visit a cafe, are not only the last thing left of normal life for many people, but also jobs. The barista was in a bad mood and didn't know where to get the money if the cafe closed.
Ukrainian air defenses managed to shoot down 415 air targets - 9 missiles and 406 drones. 26 missiles and 52 strike UAVs hit targets at 25 locations.
The gas infrastructure in particular was hit. As a result, production equipment was hit and damaged. https://24tv.ua/economy/ataka-gazovu-infrastrukturu-8112025-yaki-naslidki_n2948952
It is unknown whether there is a connection with the night attack, but border crossing operations at the state border of Ukraine have been temporarily suspended due to a malfunction in the customs database. Registration of citizens and transport for entry and exit from Ukraine is not carried out. https://unn.ua/news/vyizd-za-kordon-ta-vizd-nemozhlyvi-stavsia-zbii-bazy-danykh-derzhprykordonsluzhba
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The times have come again when there is less time with electricity than without it. If in everyday life everyone is almost used to this and people simply plan what to do when there is no electricity and what needs to be done while it is there - for example, charge everything and wash clothes, then for business these are serious problems and an increase in the cost of products and services. On the one hand, the situation resembles last year's, only this year there are no reserves for repairs and restoration.
As the energy company "Centrenergo" admitted, the occupiers have carried out the largest attack on Ukrainian thermal power plants since the beginning of the war. So, all three of the company's plants have now stopped and are not generating electricity. These are Trypilska TPP (in Kyiv region), Zmiivska TPP (in Kharkiv region) and Vuglehirska TPP (in Donetsk region). Trypilska TPP is the largest supplier of electricity to Kyiv, Cherkasy and Zhytomyr regions. Zmiivska TPP, destroyed by the russians, was previously considered one of the largest thermal power plants in Ukraine. https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-glavnaya/economy/nul-generatsii-yaki-tes-nalezhat-tsentrenergo-i-chomu-rosiya-za-nimi-polyue.htm
These TPP were already damaged last year and were repaired with great difficulty this year. Now they are completely destroyed and it is unknown whether they can be restored.
Also, during a massive attack on the night of Saturday, November 8, russian troops carried out targeted strikes on substations that supply electricity to the Khmelnytsky and Rivne nuclear power plants. https://www.dw.com/uk/sibiga-rosia-splanovano-atakuvala-pidstancii-dvoh-aes/a-74676381
These power plants also reduced electricity production.
In the russian city of Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine, on the evening of November 8, powerful explosions were also heard and the local thermal plant was damaged. As a result of the incident, part of the city was left without electricity. https://weukraine.tv/novyny/blekaut-u-bjelhorodi-udar-po-jedinij-vtsililij-tets-znestrumiv-chastinu-mista/
I do not know how critical this is for russia and how it will affect its ability to continue the war, but it can be considered a step towards gentle Ukrainization - some russians will be able to feel like Ukrainians.
Most Ukrainians strive to find a balance between personal freedom and social well-being, but when choosing a priority, they prefer individual rights and freedoms. This is evidenced by the results of a study conducted by the International Institute for Freedom in conjunction with the New Image Marketing Group. Despite the war, a significant proportion of Ukrainians believe that even for the sake of state security, basic freedoms should not be sacrificed. Among the key values of Ukrainians, mutual support in difficult times is in the first place, followed by the right of a person to live as he sees fit, and faith in his own efforts as the basis for success. https://slovoproslovo.info/ukraintsi-svoboda-dobrobut-oputuvannya-2025
It seems that individualism is the main identifying feature of a Ukrainian and this is completely different from russian. And the problems with mobilization are precisely due to the authorities' lack of understanding or unwillingness to acknowledge this. That is why authoritarianism has never been accepted and is not accepted now by the majority of Ukrainians.
Foreign publications are increasingly mentioning problems with replenishing the Ukrainian army, and it seems to me that this should show the authorities of other countries what not to do.
Due to the shortage of personnel, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukraine to rotate its troops on the front lines, so soldiers often have to hold positions for long periods of time, writes the French newspaper Le Monde. The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that many new recruits are deserting before their first combat mission, sometimes even during training. Experienced soldiers are also fleeing - due to exhaustion or the inability to transfer to another unit. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/08/ukrainian-soldiers-s-rotations-on-the-front-line-are-growing-ever-longer_6747250_4.html
Ukraine plans to introduce fixed-term military contracts alongside its system of conscription, moving to address a pressing need to attract recruits and ease the strain on soldiers worn down by years of fighting. Until now, Ukrainian soldiers have served under open-ended contracts, leaving them with no control over their future. Enthusiasm for enlistment has waned, with Ukrainians fearful that indefinite duty amounts to a one-way ticket to the front line.
Under the new system, both current service members and recruits will be able to sign fixed-term contracts lasting one to five years, Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal said Monday night as he announced the plan. The new system will not replace mobilization, which Ukraine has long relied on to replenish its battered army. But Mr. Shmyhal said that any soldier who signed a contract of two years or more would receive a one-year deferment from potential future mobilization after completing the term.
The provision appears intended to motivate Ukrainians who had been reluctant to serve. After nearly four years of full-scale war, Ukraine faces a nationwide challenge of draft avoidance. The Ukrainian Army cannot afford to discharge worn-out soldiers unless it signs up enough replacements, especially as its troops are outnumbered by the russian forces on the battlefield.
russia, for its part, has managed to replenish its forces and even to expand its army, despite heavy losses, thanks to bumper contracts that have attracted hundreds of thousands of volunteers.
Some people expressed doubt that Ukraine would follow through on its pledge to give fixed-term contracts to those already serving, noting that the military had long resisted measures that could allow soldiers to leave amid ongoing fighting. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/world/europe/ukraine-war-military-contracts-conscription.html
These initiatives have two major drawbacks - no one has trusted the authorities for a long time, and this would be unfair to those who have been fighting for four years and for whom nothing will change.
Meanwhile, the "volunteers" trying to escape fall out of the windows of the mobilization center, https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/345670-v-ternopole-iz-pyatogo-etazha-ttsk-vypal-muzhchina-chto-govoryat-v-tsentre-komplektovaniya
cut their wrists, https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1115766-u-dnipropetrovskomu-ttsk
or are released by their friends. https://sud.ua/uk/news/video/345687-grazhdanskie-litsa-pokhitili-muzhchinu-v-vinnitskom-ttsk-prokommentirovali-intsident-vozle-rynka-saturn-video
Meanwhile, according to a BBC investigation, more people may be deserting the Ukrainian army than are being recruited. The numbers are impossible to verify, but it is also impossible to hide. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3vn7vzl105o
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has said his country is "open" to Ukrainians. According to the politician, many people have already arrived from Ukraine to Belarus and he is inviting Ukrainians to move there.
https://24tv.ua/geopolitics/lukashenko-zayaviv-shho-bilorus-vidkrita-dlya-ukrayintsiv-zaprosiv_n2948032
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Today I got a call from a guy I helped appeal a fine imposed on him by the mobilization center a few months ago. He reported that the court had canceled the fine. Another small victory over the big system.
The shelling of the energy sector continues daily and the situation now varies across the country. While there are no outages at all in the West, in Kyiv there is electricity for several hours a day according to schedules, and emergency power outages have been introduced in Kharkiv, Sumy and Poltava regions. https://unn.ua/news/try-oblasti-perevely-na-avariini-vidkliuchennia-svitla-ukrenerho
On November 10, the Kharkiv metro was again unable to start train traffic due to problems with power supply, the metro press service reported. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-kharkiv-metro/33585894.html
The small town of Pokrovsk has become another place of concentration of military efforts of the russians on the front. It is being stormed by large forces and Ukraine is sending more and more reserves to its defense. In my opinion, it will not be possible to keep it, the only question is what it will cost the sides. Meanwhile, the russians are slowly advancing on other sections of the front. https://24tv.ua/pokrovsk-zsu-nazvai-kilkist-rosiyan-yaki-zaraz-perebuvayut-misti_n2950532
From October 16 to November 5, Ukrainian representatives held a series of limited negotiations with a special committee of institutional holders of GDP warrants, during which the parties exchanged restructuring proposals twice, but without success. This was reported by the press service of the Ministry of Finance, Interfax-Ukraine reports. https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1118590.html
russian assets impasse faces obstacles beyond Belgium. Talks between senior Commission officials and the Belgian government over a €140B loan to Ukraine fell short of a breakthrough, writes POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-assets-eu-ukraine-euroclear-funding-robert-fico/
The Czech flag was raised in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. This happened a day after the new Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Parliament, leader of the right-wing populist party Freedom and Direct Democracy, Tomio Okamura, ordered the removal of the Ukrainian flag from the chamber building, which had been flying there since February 2022. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-prapor-chekhii-rada/33584207.html (Nov. 8)
Donald Trump has exempted Hungary from sanctions over its continued purchases of russian oil and gas for one year, a White House official has confirmed to BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp85dvnkpv4o
Meanwhile, another corruption scandal is developing in Ukraine, this time on an unprecedented scale. Meanwhile, another corruption scandal is developing in Ukraine, this time on an unprecedented scale. According to BBC on the morning of November 10, Ukraine was shaken by the news that the two main anti-corruption bodies - the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office - are conducting searches at the residence of Justice Minister Herman Galushchenko, who previously headed the Ministry of Energy, as well as at the residence of Timur Mindich, an influential and close co-owner of the Kvartal 95 studio. Some time later, the NABU announced that it was jointly conducting Operation Midas, a large-scale operation to expose corruption in the energy sector, in which all NABU detectives were involved. According to investigators, about $100 million could have been stolen from the state. Part of this money, according to NABU, was also transferred to russia. According to the investigation, the participants in the scheme systematically received a cashback from Energoatom's (state concern that operates nuclear power plants in Ukraine) counterparties in the amount of 10 to 15% of the contract value. This is also related to the construction of protective structures for the energy sector, or rather, the lack of such protection. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cdx4pd7k49qo?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
At night, the two main suspects left Ukraine without hindrance, which once again draws attention to the fact that the Ukrainian border is closed only to poor and honest men.
https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/345862-mindich-vyekhal-za-granitsu-pered-obyskami-potomu-chto-nabu-ne-vystavilo-indeksy-zaderzhaniya-na-granitse-istochniki
https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/345880-chlen-nkreku-sergey-pushkar-vyekhal-iz-ukrainy-zheleznyak
The case was also commented on by the former chairman of the board of Ukrenergo Volodymyr Kudrytsky, who was detained in late October on suspicion of fraud and previously dismissed for allegedly insufficient protection of the company's facilities against russian attacks. In his opinion, this is why the authorities tried to destroy the anti-corruption bodies in the summer.
At a briefing on November 7, Zelensky said that Kudrytsky “was the head of a large system” that “was supposed to ensure the security of our energy sector. “He should have done it, and he didn’t,” the head of state said. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-zelenskyi-kudrytskyi/33584372.html
Time will tell what really happened, but some link this activity to a recent statement by russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. In an interview with the russian state news agency RIA Novosti, he stated that shortly before the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir putin in Alaska, the United States allegedly assured the russian side that it "would be able to ensure that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky does not impede the achievement of peace. Apparently, certain difficulties have arisen on this issue". He added that Moscow is now awaiting confirmation from the US that the "Anchorage agreements" are in effect. https://zn.ua/POLITICS/lavrov-zajavil-chto-ssha-sobiralis-nadavit-na-zelenskoho-chtoby-on-ne-prepjatstvoval-dohovorennostjam.html
For Trump, accusations of breaking his word and weakness can be quite painful and require a decisive response.
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Due to the lack of electricity, I started reading more, and one of the most interesting books I've read recently was Albert Speer`s memoirs Inside the Third Reich. It's especially interesting to compare the situation in different countries during the war and how different regimes behaved - dictatorships and democracies:
It remains one of the oddities of this war that hitler demanded far less from his people than Churchill and Roosevelt did from their respective nations. The discrepancy between the total mobilization of labor forces in democratic England and the casual treatment of this question in authoritarian Germany is proof of the regime's anxiety not to risk any shift in the popular mood. The German leaders were not disposed to make sacrifices themselves or to ask sacrifices of the people. They tried to keep the morale of the people in the best possible state by concessions. Hitler and the majority of his political followers belonged to the generation who as soldiers had witnessed the Revolution of November 1918 and had never forgotten it. In private conversations Hitler indicated that after the experience of 1918 one could not be cautious enough. In order to anticipate any discontent, more effort and money was expended on supplies of consumer goods, on military pensions or compensation to women for the loss of earnings by their men in the services, than in the countries with democratic governments. Whereas Churchill promised his people only blood, sweat, and tears, all we heard during the various phases and various crises of the war was Hitlers slogan: "The final victory is certain." This was a confession of political weakness. It betrayed great concern over a loss of popularity which might develop into an insurrectionary mood.
After only nine years of rule the leadership was so corrupt that even in the critical phase of the war it could not cut back on its luxurious style of living. For "representational reasons" the leaders all needed big houses, hunting lodges, estates and palaces, many servants, a rich table, and a select wine cellar. They were also concerned about their lives to an insane degree.
Amateurishness was one of hitler's dominant traits, he had never learned a profession and basically had always remained an outsider to all fields of endeavor. Like many self-taught people, he had no idea what real specialized knowledge meant. Without any sense of the complexities of any great task, he boldly assumed one function after another. Unburdened by standard ideas, his quick intelligence sometimes conceived unusual measures which a specialist would not have hit on at all. The victories of the early years of the war can literally be attributed to Hitler's ignorance of the rules of the game and his layman's delight in decision making. Since the opposing side was trained to apply rules which Hitler's self-taught, autocratic mind did not know and did not use, he achieved surprises. These audacities, coupled with military superiority, were the basis of his early successes. But as soon as setbacks occurred he suffered shipwreck, like most untrained people. Then his ignorance of the rules of the game was revealed as another kind of incompetence; then his defects were no longer strengths. The greater the failures became, the more obstinately his incurable amateurishness came to the fore. The tendency to wild decisions had long been his forte; now it speeded his downfall.
One can only wonder at the recklessness and the frivolity with which Hitler appointed me to one of those three or four ministries on which the existence of his state depended. I was a complete outsider to the army, to the party, and to industry. Never in my life had I had anything to do with military weapons, for I had never been a soldier and up to the time of my appointment had never even used a rifle as a hunter. To be sure, it was in keeping with Hitler's dilettantism that he preferred to choose nonspecialists as his associates. After all, he had already appointed a wine salesman as his Foreign Minister, his party philosopher as his Minister for Eastern Affairs, and an erstwhile fighter pilot as overseer of the entire economy. Now he was picking an architect of all people to be his Minister of Armaments. Undoubtedly Hitler preferred to fill positions of leadership with laymen.
It is significant that Hitler did not choose the direct route of obtaining information on this matter from responsible people but depended instead on unreliable and incompetent informants to give him a Sunday-supplement account. Here again was proof of his love for amateurishness and his lack of understanding of fundamental scientific research.
It seems that all the warring countries are facing the same problems. Speer even mentions the issue of replacing mobilized specialists with foreigners. It is interesting that he did not hesitate to adopt the experience of one of the leaders of German industry during the First World War Walther Rathenau, despite the fact that he was a Jew, which was extremely dangerous in those times.
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Congratulations on the successful outcome in the case with the mobilized man. Perhaps it will be a step in helping the judicial pendulum to swing back to normalcy.
“For Trump, accusations of breaking his word and weakness can be quite painful and require a decisive response.”
It’s hard to know how much Trump has actually given up on Putin. Unfortunately, given his long standing admiration and like for dictator Putin and affinity for Russia, it may not take much chastisement from Putin’s lackey to pull him back into Putin’s orbit.
Hungary is highly dependent on Russian energy, so it makes some sense to let them have time to adjust and solve logistics to bring it in from other sources (if possible). It’s also in character for Trump because of his like of authoritarian Orban.
The incompetence, or deliberately allowed escape of the suspects in the corruption cases is mind boggling.
Where do you think they will surface - Russia? Who do you suppose effected their escape, if deliberately arranged?How high do you suppose the scandal goes, and could it topple Zelensky?
The excerpt from Speer’s book was fascinating. I will put it on my list to read.
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It’s hard to know how much Trump has actually given up on Putin. Unfortunately, given his long standing admiration and like for dictator Putin and affinity for Russia, it may not take much chastisement from Putin’s lackey to pull him back into Putin’s orbit.
Hungary is highly dependent on Russian energy, so it makes some sense to let them have time to adjust and solve logistics to bring it in from other sources (if possible). It’s also in character for Trump because of his like of authoritarian Orban.
The incompetence, or deliberately allowed escape of the suspects in the corruption cases is mind boggling.
Where do you think they will surface - Russia? Who do you suppose effected their escape, if deliberately arranged?How high do you suppose the scandal goes, and could it topple Zelensky?
Hi Bob!
Good questions, to which I can only give my opinions, based on the available information and using the methods of deduction and induction that Sherlock Holmes loved so much.
As for Trump, he clearly has a personal interest that has nothing to do with the interests of Ukraine. I can only quote Speer again: Our attempt to mobilize Goering against Bormann was probably doomed to failure from the start for financial reasons as well. For as was later revealed by a Nuremberg document, Bormann had made Goering a gift of six million marks from the industrialists' Adolf Hitler Fund.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Canada that Washington had effectively reached the limit in imposing new sanctions against russia. https://sud.ua/uk/news/abroad/346023-ssha-pochti-ischerpali-vozmozhnosti-dlya-novykh-sanktsiy-protiv-rossii-rubio
As for Hungary and sanctions, there is an opinion that all of Europe will take advantage of this opportunity. What difference does it make who brings drugs to a party? Everyone will be able to use them there.
On the third day, the world media finally reacted to the biggest corruption scandal in Ukraine in recent years. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-corruption-scandal-explained-100m-plot-rocking-volodymyr-zelenskyy-energy-sector/
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20251112-ukraine-zelensky-100-million-graft-scandal
Those who managed to escape are in Europe. They did it legally, having all the necessary documents. https://unn.ua/news/peretyn-kordonu-mindichem-pereviryly-u-dpu-kazhut-usi-dokumenty-buly-obmezhen-pro-zaboronu-vyizdu-shchodo-noho-ne-vstanovliuvalosia
But the question remains: why did anti-corruption agencies only observe the damage being done to Ukraine for 15 months and only now have they begun selectively publishing evidence and directly naming members of the criminal organization, which is expressly prohibited by current legislation before the case is transferred to court?
It seems that this is more political than criminal. The next question is who is behind this? It is clear that Zelensky will pretend that he knew nothing and had nothing to do with it. He will demand an investigation and punishment of the guilty. Which may also be true, but isn't he the head of the entire state system that made possible unprecedented corruption, and should bear direct political responsibility for it? In fact, this is only the tip of the iceberg and we can only guess what is happening in the army and other sectors given the amounts of money involved there. We also need to see who will have problems if they start with Zelensky.
But again, in my opinion, this story is not about money, although even its origin (on the bundles of dollars seized during searches, the markings of American banks are visible in the published photos) raises many questions. We need to find an answer to the question of who benefits from this? Why is this happening right now? What will be the consequences?
As for why some were allowed to escape, it seems the old tactic works - scare a fool and see what he does.
P.S. It seems that the actor who agreed to play the president many years ago did not think about the fact that he would be made into a scapegoat.
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Tonight about 430 drones and 18 missiles had been launched and dozens of high-rise buildings damaged in Kyiv. I haven't slept most of the night and I feel bad. But I have water and heat, and the electricity is on its usual schedule.
A drone attack on a market at Chornomorsk in the south of the country killed two people.
Meanwhile, Ukraine stepped up its attacks on russia's oil infrastructure, with drone strikes on one of its biggest export terminals in Novorossiysk, on the Black Sea coast. Fire broke out at the Sheskharis oil refinery, and a ship and a block of flats were hit, officials said. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4jn94gyllo
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More despicable drone attacks on civilians by butcher Putin. According to reports here at least 6 and perhaps more were killed.
It seems the corruption scandal will widen. How and who... Meantime, I hope that enough money is flowing to the right places to keep the country and especially the military functioning, though as you say who knows what corruption is happening in that area.
The only good news I saw from the US Sec. State Rubio was the implication that Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers may finally be interdicted. This would be effective, unlike squandering military resources on the theatrical destruction of tiny boats and the unfortunate “mules” in them in order to sink an insignificant amount of illicit drugs. (Much of what Trump does is for keeping up his reputation among the faithful on right wing cheerleader cable/satellite TV Fox News here, or responding to something they report.)
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Seva completed some documents in Lviv, which finally allowed him to come to me in Kyiv for the weekend. Strange feelings at the meeting. Of course, a lot of conversations. I think I understand him, although we look at many things differently. It seems that he found some of my advice useful. Time will tell where our choices will lead us. His self-confidence exceeds even mine.
During his stay in Kyiv it was quiet and he still doesn't understand what air raids are. A power outage doesn't affect anyone who has a good battery in their laptop and a large power bank. Nevertheless, I had the opportunity to demonstrate once again how the radio works. It made me laugh that he would do it too, but he thinks his girlfriend won't let him put an antenna on the balcony.
It seems that no one is going to bear political responsibility for exposing corruption in the energy sector, and common sense suggests that despite its staggering scale, this is only part of a larger picture. NABU announced that it has launched an investigation into corruption in the defense sector. https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1763385444-nabu-rozpochalo-rozsliduvannya-shchodo-koruptsiyi-v-oboronniy-sferi
All this is great, but why only now? Who is behind this? Who, in turn, controls NABU and how?
Power One, owned by the Dragon Capital investment group, has signed a loan agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for €22.3 million and received a €3 million Crisis Response Special Fund (Norway) grant for the implementation of a 68 MW combined cycle gas generation and energy storage system (BESS) project in the Transcarpathian region. In July 2025, a “Mandate Letter” of intent to finance was signed between Power One, Dragon Capital, Negen (an operating partner founded by Volodymyr Kudrytskyi) and the EBRD. https://inventure.com.ua/uk/news/ukraine/dragon-capital-ta-volodimir-kudrickij-investuyut-ponad-euro25-mln-u-gazovu-generaciyu-na-zakarpatti
It is significant that the current authorities accuse Volodymyr Kudrytskyi of abuse of office and illegal appropriation of funds from the state-owned company Ukrenergo, which he headed in 2018. This happened on the eve of the corruption scandal with Ukrenergo, in which the current authorities are already involved. https://suspilne.media/1151316-ekskerivniku-ukrenergo-kudrickomu-obiraut-zapobiznij-zahid/
Head of the Verkhovna Rada's Financial Committee met with representatives of the International Monetary Fund mission, which he called the most difficult in the entire period of cooperation. Danylo Hetmantsev noted that our problem is the loss of trust of our partners due to the recent corruption scandals, which our partners speak about. openly.https://finance.liga.net/en/all/novosti/hetmantsev-calls-meeting-with-imf-the-most-difficult-in-history
At the same time, it seems that with trust in Kudrytsky, things are getting better.
So far, Ukraine has received a tranche from the European Union totaling €5.9 billion, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said. In particular, €4.1 billion came under the ERA Loans mechanism as the final tranche of the overall €18 billion program, financed by proceeds from frozen russian assets. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/346043-ukraina-poluchila-pochti-6-milliardov-evro-ot-evrosoyuza-na-chto-napravyat-sredstva
The Anti-Corruption Action Center found out that the brother of Maria Vdovichenko, the current deputy head of the Prosecutor General's Office, defected to the russians back in 2014. At the same time, the official's father runs a business in the temporarily occupied Crimea. https://hromadske.ua/suspilstvo/254362-brat-zastupnytsi-henprokurora-pratsiuye-u-viyskoviy-prokuraturi-rf-a-yiyi-batko-maye-biznes-v-okupatsiyi-tspk
The question of whether she should be responsible for her brother and father remains open, but the double standards regarding relations with russia are obvious. For some, this means arrest and charges of treason, while for others it has no consequences.
As Ukraine focusses on Pokrovsk, strategic towns in Zaporizhzhia region left vulnerable to russian encirclement. Ukrainian troops have increasingly been diverted further north to reinforce the key city – leaving its defences along the south-eastern front more vulnerable to sustained russian attacks. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s armed forces chief, this week warned, with unexpected candour, that the front-line situation in the region had “significantly worsened”. Within the region, russian forces have advanced some 19 miles over the course of six weeks, according to pro-Ukrainian maps. With Ukraine continuing to suffer severe manpower shortages, there are growing calls for Kyiv to withdraw its troops from Pokrovsk to avoid unnecessary casualties and refortify other parts of the front. In the past, Ukrainian generals have faced criticism for waiting too long in the face of political pressure. Meanwhile, russia has more quietly been making territorial gains at the intersection of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, where defence has been comparatively de-prioritised. russia occupies around 70 per cent of Zaporizhzhia region, primarily in its east and south, though Ukraine retains control over its regional capital of Zaporizhzhia. Kyiv has downplayed losses, writes The Telegraph.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/16/russia-seizes-land-after-kyiv-diverts-troops/
Ukraine has “no chance” of winning against russia’s ongoing invasion, and the EU's continued financial support for the country is "just crazy," Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said. In an interview with Mathias Döpfner, CEO of German media group Axel Springer, Orbán said financial support for Ukraine “kills” the EU “economically, financially” and is “just crazy.” “We have burned already €185 billion, and … our intention is to to burn even more. So we finance a country which has no chance to win the war,” Orbán said on the latest episode of Döpfner's podcast, MD MEETS. https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-viktor-orban-war-ukraine-russia-finance-eu/
Ukraine is heading for a strategic defeat in the war with russia, and if neither the Ukrainian government nor its Western partners take immediate action, russia will gradually win this war. This is the opinion expressed by Bild analyst Julian Röpke on his page in X. Röpke notes that while Ukrainian journalists and activists have already realized the seriousness of the situation, neither the Ukrainian army nor its Western partners are drawing the necessary lessons from their previous mistakes in waging the war against russia and are not taking serious action. For example, he considers the supply of Western armored vehicles to be useless against the backdrop of russia's growing dominance in the field of fiber-optic and other unmanned systems. He also blames the critical situation on the front and the policy of the Ukrainian authorities towards evaders, stating that "the Ukrainian government does not seem to take the war of annihilation against its own country seriously." https://x.com/julianroepcke/status/1989789161331806635?s=46&t=DLJQ-0t-d5URNGa_p2zc6A
Ukraine is facing a worsening shortage of soldiers as record numbers of men flee to Europe, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko warned in an interview. “We have huge problems with soldiers — with human resources,” Klitschko told the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, acknowledging the toll that nearly four years of war has taken on Ukraine’s capacity to replenish its ranks.
https://www.politico.eu/article/war-in-ukraine-draft-age-russia-vitali-klitschko/
Unfortunately, this politician does not offer a solution to this problem, and his own sons are also abroad and neither he nor they are in a hurry to defend Ukraine. Perhaps that is why Ukraine is now not so much harmed by the loss of money and the trust of Western partners as by the disappointment and loss of people's trust in the government and the state. Personally, I do not know who could lead the country, act only in its interests and be an example for the people, uniting them.
russian troops attacked the energy infrastructure of Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Odessa, and Donetsk regions, the Ministry of Energy reported on the morning of November 17. Power restrictions and outages continue in most regions. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-minenerho-obstril-ataka-rf/33593691.html
Attacks on energy occur every day. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/11/12/novyna/suspilstvo/ukrenerho-povidomyly-pro-novi-udary-po-enerhetychnij-infrastrukturi
The authorities have set new requirements for the autonomy of mobile operators, as due to increased shelling of energy infrastructure, the current readiness of networks to operate for 8-10 hours without electricity may not be enough. So this may be a guide to a realistic scenario. https://censor.net/n3584653
An exceptional event occurred in Poland. The bombing of the railway track on the Warsaw-Lublin route is an unprecedented act of sabotage, directed directly against the security of the Polish state and its civilian population," Tusk wrote on the X platform. He explained that this route is "crucial for the delivery of aid to Ukraine." https://www.rmf24.pl/polityka/news-mozliwe-ze-to-dywersja-premier-o-uszkodzeniu-torow-na-mazows,nId,8041061
And some good news.
Vital supplies of US liquefied natural gas are due to start flowing into war-ravaged Ukraine this winter via a pipeline across the Balkans. The deal was announced after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Athens on Sunday. Greece is working to increase the flow of American LNG to its terminals to "replace russian gas in the region", Mitsotakis said recently. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0ex0y0p31jo
In the qualifying match for the 2026 World Cup, the Ukrainian national team hosted the Icelandic team in Warsaw. The match ended with a 2:0 victory for the hosts. Thus, the Ukrainian national team finished in second place in Group D with 10 points and reached the playoffs for a place in the 2026 World Cup. https://xsport.ua/ua/football_s/news/zbirna-ukrayiny-peremohla-islandiyu-i-vyyshla-v-pley-za-vykhid-na-chs-2026/
Let me remind you that the Ukrainian national team is headed by Serhiy Rebrov UT5UDX.
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I’m glad to hear that Seva was able to visit, and that you had substantial talks. I hope his travels back are safe and uneventful.
It’s hard to know what our children will take to heart from such discussions. Often our advice lies dormant with them for a long time until conditions require it and are favorable for them to understand it, like seeds in the soil.
I recall being supremely self-confident at that age too. Mostly because I didn’t know or understand half of what I actually needed to!
Congrats on the Ukrainian football team going to the playoffs for the World Cup! (So far this season the Denver, Colorado Broncos have the best record of all (9-2) in very different American football.)
Good news indeed on the natural gas supplies this winter from the US via Greek terminals and the trans-Balkan pipeline. I see that pipeline goes close to Russian dominatated Transnistria which is a bit worrisome.
But then is anyplace really safe from Russian hybrid warfare given the Baltic submarine cable cuts, Polish rail line bombing, and the continued drone disruption across Europe?
Russia is already fighting an undeclared hybrid war against Europe and the US but we are still sleeping.
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There are many comments about the untimeliness of Mindichgate, but on the other hand, will it be timely when the country is destroyed by corrupt people?
Yesterday, there were only two resignations on the parliament’s agenda – Justice Minister Herman Galushchenko and Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk. They were called “Mindich’s people” in the current government, and the government’s plan was probably to sacrifice them, announce a large-scale personnel shake-up of the entire energy sector – and on this the scandal with the NABU tapes could be considered exhausted.
But the opposition in parliament decided to take advantage of the situation, demanding the resignation of the entire government. Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko add: next, it is necessary to create a new coalition and a government of national unity, which will not be a passive tool in the hands of the President’s Office. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cgqlx438znno?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
https://www.dw.com/uk/zvilnenna-galusenka-i-grincuk-u-radi-zablokuvali-tribunu/a-74789251?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
But so far, the deputies have not managed to dismiss even these two ministers, and Mindich may be one of the top managers of the shadow office, but by no means the ultimate beneficiary in terms of scale. Without the support of the first persons of the state, such deals would simply be impossible.
An interesting question is how far Zelensky will be able to go to retain power? Is he ready to sacrifice all his close associates, including the head of the office Yermak? Will it not turn against him if they decide to drag him along? What consequences will this have for the country?
It is significant that today, after a tour of Europe, Zelensky is meeting with Donald Trump's special representative Steve Witkoff in Turkey. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c620p6jnynko
Meanwhile, the shelling of Ukraine with drones and missiles continues. In Dnipro, the television tower, broadcasters' buildings, and the railway were damaged. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1117649-rosiya-vdaryla-dronamy-po-dnipru-zajnyalas-budivlya-redaktsij-suspilne-j-ukrayinskogo-radio
Three western regions were hit today, Ternopil, Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk, and a drone attack targeted three districts of the northern city of Kharkiv, wounding more than 30 people. russia fired had more than 470 drones and 47 missiles. Many people were killed and injured. Power cuts were affecting a number of regions across the country, Ukraine's energy ministry said. Energy facilities, transport and civil infrastructure were damaged elsewhere in western Ukraine. The head of Lviv region said an energy facility had been struck.
The russian strikes came a day after Ukraine's military said it had fired US-supplied longer-range Atacms missiles at military targets inside russia, the first time they have admitted using the Atacms on russian soil. russia's defence ministry accused Ukraine of firing four of the missiles at the southern city of Voronezh. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy0yere4k0zo
Unmanned systems hit the Zuyivska and Starobeshivska TPPs in Donetsk region. The occupation authorities announced the absence of electricity, heat and water in a large part of the region. https://www.dw.com/uk/u-zsu-pidtverdili-urazenna-dvoh-tes-na-okupovanij-doneccini/a-74793435?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
The big question is who has suffered more damage - the occupation troops who are in that territory, or the Ukrainians who are already suffering under occupation.
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If nothing happens at night, tomorrow I will have three hours of electricity during the day.
It took the Verkhovna Rada two days in a row to dismiss Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk and Justice Minister Herman Galushchenko, who were "in the spotlight" in the Midas corruption case. They did not appear to report to parliament and it seems that few people know where they are now. The Prime Minister also does not comment on the situation with her ministers. Their deputies were appointed acting ministers in their place. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/czdrdpgj6yyo
It seems that tomorrow Volodymyr Zelensky will return to a country (and a political system) that will be quite different from what it was just a few days ago.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c0exe1d0jl0o
The Trump administration has been quietly hammering out a new peace plan with russia to end its war with Ukraine, a person familiar with the talks told CNN. The president’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who has been at the center of the administration’s talks with Moscow, has been leading the effort, the source said. The negotiations accelerated this week as the administration feels the Kremlin has signaled a renewed openness to a deal, the source added. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/19/politics/russia-ukraine-white-house-plan
Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and chief of staff Gen. Randy George became the highest-level Trump Pentagon officials to visit Ukraine when they arrived on an unannounced trip this week, as the U.S. moves to find a way to speed the end of the war. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/18/top-army-officials-set-for-drone-focused-visit-to-ukraine-00658328
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has criticized politicians who are fueling anti-Ukrainian sentiment, especially in light of recent acts of sabotage on railway infrastructure. "russia is spending billions to fuel such sentiments, on disinformation and propaganda. It wants to turn part of public opinion against our neighbors, against the EU and refugees from Ukraine who fled to Poland from russian bombs," the Foreign Minister is convinced. The Minister explained that russia's key goal in these actions is to divide the European Union. "The reason is obvious - as the European Union, we are a giant in relation to russia, and in relation to each individual member state, russia is a powerful state. Is it really so difficult to understand?" Sikorski stressed. https://suspilne.media/1168700-glava-mzs-polsi-nazvav-politicnimi-diversantami-tih-hto-zvinuvacue-ukrainu-v-diah-rf/
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That night was relatively calm, although they say that the first russian tank has already arrived in Pokrovsk. https://censor.net/ua/resonance/3585992/sytuatsiya-u-pokrovsku
Social media reports say that a strike with several missiles was carried out on the Ternopil radio plant, whose military products were previously inspected by a people's deputy. The YouTube video where he commented and directly named this plant has already been deleted today, but we will probably never know whether he will be held criminally liable, like those who, for example, publish videos with busification.
https://www.facebook.com/iavchasno/posts/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B8-%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%96%D0%B2-%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8F%D1%82%D1%8C%D0%BC%D0%B0-%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B8-%D0%B2-%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BD%D1%83-%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%BA%D1%83-%D0%B2-%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%BE-20-%D0%B7%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B0-%D0%BA%D1%96%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BA%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C-%D0%B7%D0%B0/1318765206929670/
Once again, the question remains open: who is harming Ukraine more - the russians or its authorities? It seems they are acting together to rob and rape Ukraine.
U.S. President Donald Trump's Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has told associates he plans to leave the administration in January, Reuters reports, a departure that would mean the loss of a key advocate for Ukraine in the Trump administration. Special presidential envoy is a temporary designation, and such envoys in theory must be confirmed by the Senate to stay in their positions past 360 days. Kellogg has indicated that January would be a natural departure point, given existing legislation, said the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trumps-ukraine-envoy-kellogg-leave-post-january-sources-say-2025-11-19/
It seems that now the US has only one special representative and one direction for developments in Ukraine.
Apecular new American-russian plan to end the war in Ukraine has been presented to President Volodymyr Zelensky, just as he is grappling with a corruption scandal that marks his gravest crisis since the invasion. The plan, drafted without Ukraine’s knowledge by Donald Trump’s special representative, Steve Witkoff, and Vladimir putin’s envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, appears to be little short of a demand for capitulation, writes The Economist. https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/11/19/a-terrible-american-russian-proposal-to-end-the-war-in-ukraine
It is also unknown how this plan can be implemented without the support of Ukraine and Europe.
United States Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff did not hold a meeting with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky yesterday after it emerged that the latter was not going to discuss the new U.S. plan on the Ukrainian settlement, the Axios news website said, citing a source. https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/114908/
Meanwhile, lawyers are analyzing the charges against businessman Timur Mindich and conclude that they do not meet the standards of criminal procedure, contain assumptions instead of evidence, and violate basic requirements of criminal procedure. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/346629-analiz-podozreniya-po-delu-timura-mindicha-klyuchevye-protsessualnye-voprosy-i-probely-dokazyvaniya
Indeed, we live in a difficult time when it is almost impossible to understand who is the criminal or only the one who was called a criminal?
In the past, one of the tactics of corrupt law enforcement agencies to pretend that they were doing their job well was often deliberate procedural violations, which then allowed criminals to ruin the case in court. But I see more politics than law in this matter, so I don't pay any attention to it at all.
And I want to quote Speer again: Early in February, Liischen visited me in my small apartment in the rear building of my Ministry on Pariser Platz. He took a slip of paper from his pocket and handed it to me, saying: "Are you aware of the passage from Hitlers Mein Kampf that is most often quoted by the public nowadays?"
I read: "The task of diplomacy is to ensure that a nation does not heroically go to its destruction but is practically preserved. Every way that leads to this end is expedient, and a failure to follow it must be called criminal neglect of duty." He had found a second fitting quotation, Liischen continued, and he handed me another slip: "State authority as an end in itself cannot exist, since in that case every tyranny on this earth would be sacred and unassailable. If a racial entity is being led toward its doom by means of governmental power, then the rebellion of every single member of such a Volk is not only a right, but a duty."
"But then all those will be called before the judgment seat who today, in possession of power, trample on laws and rights, who have led our people into destitution and ruin, and who, when their Fatherland was suffering, valued themselves above the life of the community.
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The passage from Speer about the bitter irony of the Mein Kampf quotes is appropriate - and very sad.
The new American- Russian plan seems to be a gambit to shock Zelensky with such a bleak outcome that he will agree to something less onerous, but still bad, in order to get at least a cease fire. No reasonable person could think it to be a serious and credible peace plan on its own.
This implies that Trump will most likely not supply troves of weapons to Ukraine with which to destroy far more of the Russian oil industry, nor will he interdict Russian tankers at sea. Both of which in my view would actually be effective in motivating Putin into a bona fide negotiation.
As a bonus for Russia, it drives more wedges into NATO unity and makes Trump look even weaker and less likely to ever come to the aid of any NATO country attacked by Russia.
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This implies that Trump will most likely
The Ukrainian authorities' monstrous incompetence is particularly noticeable in diplomacy. Trump looks very accessible with a skillful approach. Just ook what Arabs have achieved with a gifted plane or Swiss with a piece of gold.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2eylpdg9po
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/21/swiss-gold-and-rolex-gifts-to-trump-raise-questions-over-personalisation-of-us-presidential-power
Maybe it would be worth trying to give Trump a full-length statue of him on a horse made of gold...
Folk wisdom says that if God wants to punish someone, he deprives them of reason. Apparently, Ukrainians were punished. Instead, Ukraine has a messiah who pretends to know nothing about corruption and refuses to get rid of his head of administration. If he really believes this, then it is even worse than a blatant lie.
But it is he who continues to determine the fate of Ukraine on its behalf. At least insofar as it depends on him. Such a gift to Trump and putin is simply unthinkable. I have long stopped asking those who voted for him whether they would trust their health to the actor Hugh Laurie, who played House, M.D. so well.
The President of Ukraine must act decisively to restore the trust undermined by the corruption scandal, writes the British Financial Times. The publication notes: it is difficult to imagine a more devastating blow to trust in power than the scandal that is unfolding in Ukraine. For Ukrainians, who are preparing to survive the winter without heat and light, this causes a sense of indignation and injustice. And for soldiers at the front, who risk their lives every day, it is perceived as a betrayal. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/czjpj0ywgdxo
There is only one drawback to this recommendation - it is impossible to restore trust in someone who is himself an integral part of the corrupt system.
The Parliament calls on the President to dismiss the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov and the Head of the President's Office Andriy Yermak, and the Cabinet of Ministers to consider the dismissal of the Head of the State Financial Monitoring Service of Ukraine Philip Pronin, the heads of the supervisory boards of state-owned enterprises, and other officials involved in the scandalous recordings. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/346776-rada-trebuet-kadrovykh-chistok-posle-plenok-mindicha-prizyv-uvolit-umerova-i-ermaka
The meeting between Zelensky and his parliamentary faction took place late on Thursday evening, the 20th, the BBC reports. The deputies present had mixed impressions of the meeting. Some were very pleased, others say that no conclusions were drawn. No remorse. No personnel decisions. No understanding of the real situation and the consequences of a crime of such magnitude. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ce3k37gp28po
Trump has indicated he wants to expedite the timeline for ending the war in Ukraine, hoping to conclude a conflict he once said publicly would be the easily resolved. Some US officials have said that the administration wants russia and Ukraine to agree to a deal by the end of the year, according to CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/21/politics/trump-ukraine-peace-gaza-witkoff
There is no doubt that the text of the peace agreement was written in russian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/nov/21/europe-latest-news-russia-ukraine-war-updates-zelenskyy-putin-g20?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-69204d2e8f08a77eddc21bbe#block-69204d2e8f08a77eddc21bbe
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he is ready for "honest work" with the US after receiving a draft peace plan to end the war with russia. Several US media outlets report that under the plan, Kyiv would give up areas of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine that it still controls, cut the size of its army, and pledge not to join Nato. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly1ypqlle0o
Sky News is now hearing from EU sources that Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump will hold a call next week after the Ukrainian leader said he wanted to discuss the peace plan with his US counterpart. Before that, the Ukrainian president will consult on the matter with leaders of the UK, France, Italy and Germany. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-trumps-peace-plan-revealed-in-full-but-zelenskyy-says-his-team-must-check-its-genuine-12541713?postid=10566089#liveblog-body
The United States has threatened to stop sharing intelligence and arms to Ukraine in order to force it to agree to a framework agreement for a peaceful settlement, mediated by the United States. Volodymyr Zelensky, in turn, said that now is one of the most difficult moments in the country's history, writes the BBC. "Ukraine may face a very difficult choice - either loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner. Either difficult 28 points, or an extremely difficult winter - the most difficult - and further risks. Life without freedom, without dignity, without justice. And so that we believe the one who has attacked twice already," the president added. He also said many more pathetic words and said that he hopes for the support of Europe. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cr7lrey427xo
Well, for now, people can only watch this show in apartments without electricity for several hours at a time, in some places without water and heating. A fire broke out in Kyiv due to an explosion at a charging station https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/tsentri-kieva-spalahnula-kvartira-mogla-vibuhnuti-1763647433.html, and an explosion at a mobilization center in the Odesa region was caused by one of those forcibly detained for mobilization. He died in the explosion, and an employee of the mobilization center was injured. https://meta.ua/uk/news/ukraine/chergova-tragediya-v-ttsk-ta-sp-vibuh-prizviv-do-smerti-970673/
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Chamberlain thought he had “peace in our time”. Trump wants peace at any cost to Ukraine.
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Wlad, what do you want Zelensky to do regarding this Putin-Trump peace proposal?
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Wlad, what do you want Zelensky to do regarding this Putin-Trump peace proposal?
I didn't choose him to demand anything from him. In any case, it's like demanding something from someone who has been using heroin for several years. What can he do with what he hasn't done before? It seems that Ukraine chose surrender back in 2019 and was just slowly moving towards it. Poroshenko offered to fight, Zelensky offered peace. So putin is surprised why he is now against it.
"Why hasn't the war ended yet? That's what a commander-in-chief you are," Volodymyr Zelensky accused Petro Poroshenko during a debate at the Olimpiyskyi Stadium on April 19, 2019. During the presidential election, he repeatedly mentioned the protracted war in Donbas to his opponent and promised voters to do everything to end it as soon as possible. Candidate Zelensky uttered phrases that gave the impression that he had a rather superficial understanding of the events in Donbas and a vision of how this war could be ended. For example, "we should just stop shooting" and "somewhere in the middle we would agree with putin." https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-52542365
But you shouldn't blame Zelensky for everything. I still think he's an extremely talented actor and that he played the role of the president wonderfully. He wouldn't have done anything at all if he hadn't been elected.
“Diax said something that is still very important to us, which is that you should not believe a thing only because you like to believe it. We call that ‘Diax’s Rake’ and sometimes we repeat it to ourselves as a reminder not to let subjective emotions cloud our judgment.”
― Neal Stephenson, Anathem
Maybe elections should be made open so that everyone is personally responsible for the consequences of their choice, and not hide behind the secrecy of voting?
There is another big problem. In fact, the identification of Ukraine in the world only took place in 2022, and judging by the language of communication, almost half of Ukrainians still identify themselves as russian. At one time, during the loss of statehood by Ireland and Poland, their elite was very important, whose representatives even while abroad preserved and demonstrated their national identity. Who, besides Zelensky, is associated with Ukraine, its history and culture at the international level? By the way, this could have been a good special operation - to pull him out and demonstrate him to the whole world, strongly associating him with Ukraine, and then show what he really is with the corresponding consequences.
By the way, who do you globally associate with Ukraine?
The Trump administration has told Ukrainian and European officials that there is little room left for negotiations on a plan to end the war with russia. The United States is pressuring Volodymyr Zelensky to sign a deal brokered with Moscow's help by next Thursday. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cd9zdvgvn0lo
Ukraine allies to hold talks on White House peace plan at G20. Ukraine's allies will seek to "strengthen" a US plan to end the war with russia when they meet at the G20 summit in South Africa, UK PM Sir Keir Starmer has said. Ahead of the talks at the G20, Sir Keir said gathered leaders would "discuss the current proposal on the table, and in support of President Trump's push for peace, look at how we can strengthen this plan for the next phase of negotiations". https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyx9xnpll8o
That is, Europe's response again boils down to conversations and discussions. But can Ukraine really count on significant help from Europe? I was reminded of the reflections of the popular English TV presenter Jeremy Clarkson about how he was forced to solve the problems with the travellers on his land himself, because the police only watched. Moreover, he risks going to prison himself, if he cause significant harm to the attackers. https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/jeremy-clarkson-rowdy-trespassers-bcc388npg
In fact, the situation is very bad. The fog of war and the lack of a sufficient amount of information do not allow me to assess the real balance of forces on the front and russia's capabilities, but the overall picture is clearly not in favor of Ukraine. Even the US is already openly supporting russia. It doesn't even make sense to compare the economy, production, and population.
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Of course Ukraine has made substantial contributions in science, industry and invention, and there have been many notable, talented and successful people who originated in Ukraine. But you’re right, it’s difficult to name them except for Zelensky, and one or two other political or oligarch figures notable during this war.
I think one major reason for this is that in history Ukraine has mostly been dominated by some imperial power and her achievements and people referred to as belonging to that power - the Soviets or Russia in our time. A search for notable Ukrainians as defined by their geographic origin will show many familiar names, and note the Ukrainian contributions in a number of fields.
(One such person was famous theoretical physicist George Gamow. Coincidentally later in his career he joined the faculty at my alma mater, the U. of Colorado, and the main physics building is named for him. His son became a professor of biology there.)
I agree with you about national and cultural identity being preserved - or not. Over history not many countries and cultures have been successful at doing it during a diaspora or under pressure of terrible persecution and have essentially disappeared. Those that do survive tend to have very strong cultural traditions, language, beliefs and codes. Probably the most remarkable example being the Jewish people, until the founding of modern Israel.
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I read the text of the Trumpian so called peace agreement proposal. https://thehill.com/policy/international/5617141-trump-ukraine-russia-peace-plan/
To call it a plan is sophistry for a what is an outline. I won’t list all the provisions and glaring defects here except to say that it reads like a Russian wet dream, and largely like a commercial intent document between parties that are mostly operating in good faith. How incredibly naive and foolish, but I expect nothing better from amoral mentally addled criminal Trump and his idiot negotiator Witless, even on a good day.
There are quite serious people who think this plan is a payoff to Putin so that he doesn’t go public with dirt on Trump. Who knows if it’s true or not, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if such evidence exists. Given that Ghislane Maxwell was suddenly moved out of prison to a posh Federal detention facility (“Club Fed”), reportedly with special privileges, shortly after being visited by a top DOJ official, and Trump’s near panic over the prospect of Epstein files being released.
But it does serve one person well and that’s Trump, who never does anything unless he is compensated. In this case there is the usual open corruption to occur and also the symbolic but openly coveted Nobel Peace Prize - or so he thinks. I think it safe to say that he will never be awarded that or any other prize from Oslo or Stockholm.
“I’ll make him an offer he can’t refuse” - Vito Corleone, The Godfather
This sums up the plan and the threat by Trump to withdraw all support of Ukraine if not signed by the American Thanksgiving Day. What a cynical bastard to add that insult, though in a short term sense there would be thanks for bombs not falling and soldiers dying.
The practical cynical reason for that timing is to bury the story under the holiday because this week most Americans are busy with preparing and then it’s essentially a four day weekend when people do not pay attention to the news.
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Of course Ukraine has made substantial contributions in science, industry and invention, and there have been many notable, talented and successful people who originated in Ukraine. But you’re right, it’s difficult to name them except for Zelensky, and one or two other political or oligarch figures notable during this war.
I think one major reason for this is that in history Ukraine has mostly been dominated by some imperial power and her achievements and people referred to as belonging to that power - the Soviets or Russia in our time. A search for notable Ukrainians as defined by their geographic origin will show many familiar names, and note the Ukrainian contributions in a number of fields.
(One such person was famous theoretical physicist George Gamow. Coincidentally later in his career he joined the faculty at my alma mater, the U. of Colorado, and the main physics building is named for him. His son became a professor of biology there.)
I agree with you about national and cultural identity being preserved - or not. Over history not many countries and cultures have been successful at doing it during a diaspora or under pressure of terrible persecution and have essentially disappeared. Those that do survive tend to have very strong cultural traditions, language, beliefs and codes. Probably the most remarkable example being the Jewish people, until the founding of modern Israel.
Hi Bob!
The truth is that in russian/Soviet science or culture, a russian is more of an exception. Usually, it is either a Jew or a Ukrainian. Their great advantage is organized cruelty and the ability to subjugate or destroy others. It's like a few bullies in a school who terrorize the entire class and all the honor students together are unable to resist them, because they are unable to degrade to the level of bullies. It seems one of the reasons for the hatred of the russians towards the Ukrainians is that they realize this and cannot accept the fact that it is the Ukrainians who are the heirs of Kyivan Rus, although they appropriated its land and name.
I cannot take seriously what is called the 28-point peace plan and it seems to me that it is just a mockery. However, none of those who previously divided the world were distinguished by great intelligence, and even the president's office does not hide the fact that it uses something like ChatGPT.
Europe quickly wrote its plan, which is also not worth the paper it was written on. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/23/leaked-europe-rival-peace-plan-ukraine-full-russia-war/
So only the army and the economy matter. A report by Mick Ryan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggests that over the last two years, russia has developed an overlapping series of asymmetric advantages in manpower, drones, battlefield innovation, and command and control that pose a serious threat to Ukraine, particularly in the ground environment. russia has learned to learn better, which bodes ill for Ukraine as well as for eastern Europe’s future security. At the same time support to Ukraine in the military, intelligence, economic, information, and diplomatic domains remains a crucial element of this war. https://www.csis.org/analysis/seven-contemporary-insights-state-ukraine-war
The fuss about ending the war on any terms has reached a new level and, together with the decline in support for Ukrainian refugees, hints that big changes are coming.
Nearly 200,000 Ukrainians in US thrown into legal limbo by Trump immigration crackdown, writes Reuter https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nearly-200000-ukrainians-us-thrown-into-legal-limbo-by-trump-immigration-2025-11-23/
Energy companies promise to improve electricity supplies in the coming days, but OSINT researchers report that russia has again begun to transfer strategic aircraft closer to the borders of Ukraine. Traditionally, this may indicate the preparation of a massive missile strike, which could lead to even greater blackouts. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/rf-zminila-aerodrom-dlya-tu-95ms-chas-pidlotu-raket-skorotivsya
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Rustem Umerov, the head of Ukraine's security council, said on Tuesday the US and Ukraine had reached "a common understanding on the key terms of the agreement discussed" at previous talks in Geneva. The White House has not commented on the prospect of Trump-Zelensky talks. Meanwhile, the US has confirmed its officials are set to meet russian representatives in Abu Dhabi.
However, the gap between the terms that Ukraine and russia will accept is still very wide and the Kremlin is unlikely to agree to the kind of deal that Kyiv may approve. Leaders in Kyiv and Europe had criticised the initial draft of a peace plan, which they said was too favourable to russia.
Counter-proposals - reportedly drafted by the UK, France and Germany - excluded any recognition of russian-held regions, raised Ukraine's permitted army size, and left the door open to Ukraine joining Nato, writes BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy95jvw57v2o
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/russia-ukraine-us-peace-plan-trump-11-25-25?post-id=cmielq37x00003b6pn4zfs0m2
Fighting continued overnight, with russia and Ukraine trading air attacks. Officials in Kyiv said at least six people had been killed in russian strikes on the city, while russian officials said at least three had been killed in a Ukrainian strike in the Rostov region. The A-60, an experimental flying laboratory, an aircraft-based laser weapon carrier, and the A-100, an early warning and control aircraft, were damaged in Taganrog. The aircraft plant, including the final assembly shop, also suffered significant damage. https://ua.news/ua/war-vs-rf/zsu-na-zavodi-v-taganrozi-spalili-dva-tsinni-litaki-foto
22 missiles and more than 460 drones were launched at Ukraine overnight. The main target of the massive combined strike was again energy infrastructure facilities, the Ministry of Energy reported. https://weukraine.tv/novyny/voroh-zavdav-kombinovanoho-udaru-po-enerhetitsi-minenerho/
I couldn't sleep that night, and the house shook from the rocket hits nearby. Not far from me, a drone hit the house right in the middle. My blood pressure has risen again and I feel an unpleasant feeling in my heart. I think I know the main reason for my bad health.
Today I finally visited the doctor with the results of all the examinations and she said that at least I don’t have tumors or hemorrhages in my head, which is certainly pleasing, but everything else needs treatment. She even gave me her personal phone number and said to write if I had any questions. I gave her my number and said that I would be happy to help her as a lawyer. Apparently I’m really not in such a bad state)
The pile of pills is growing menacingly and they can already replace breakfast, but it seems that most of them are designed to relieve tension and stabilize my blood pressure.
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Stranger than fiction, but here we are:
On a leaked phone call, US envoy Steve [“Witless”] Witkoff is heard advising a Russian official on how to “sell” the peace proposal to President Trump.
(Gifted) https://wapo.st/4rkOZtR
“After the publication of the alleged phone call — in which Witkoff is heard advising a Russian official on how Putin should sell a plan to Trump involving Ukraine surrendering territory — the senior Kremlin official involved said Wednesday that someone was listening in and releasing confidential phone conversations over the Ukrainian peace process.”
Trump said that what Witkoff did is “standard”*, but even some of the usually supine and servile Republicans in Congress are alarmed:
“Trump said that he had not heard the recording but called Witkoff’s approach ‘a very standard form of negotiation.’ The leak is causing further consternation among Republican lawmakers, many of whom had criticized the 28-point peace plan first presented by Washington as appeasing Russia. On Tuesday, Don Bacon, a Republican lawmaker from Nebraska, said Witkoff should be fired and could not be trusted with handling the peace talks.”
“For those who oppose the Russian invasion and want to see Ukraine prevail as a sovereign & democratic country, it is clear that Witkoff fully favors the Russians.” Bacon wrote on X. “He cannot be trusted to lead these negotiations. Would a Russian paid agent do less than he? He should be fired.”
Well, what is the problem when the President himself obviously acts in Russia’s interest too?
* It’s absurd to believe that Trump thinks it “standard” for one of his staff to advise the opposing side in a business negotiation. Therefore his statement is either his usual ass covering lie, or a tacit admission that there is no other side in this case, or both.
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I am not surprised that Trump and many other people, especially the older generation, sincerely consider Ukraine to be part of what was the USSR and are engaged in a dialogue with russia. The same goes for russia, which is not at war with Ukraine, but with the West. Europe's position convinces both the US and russia that it is not a significant force and therefore its interests are not taken into account. It seems to me that Biden and his team were afraid of russia, while Trump and his team are no longer afraid of it and look down on it, recognizing only China as a really strong player. But these are just my assumptions. As well as the fact that Trump's desire to quickly end the war in Ukraine at any cost is due to the need to free up resources and shift the focus to the east, where it seems that China's attack on Taiwan is already inevitable.
Chinese President Xi Jinping “explained” his country’s principled position on the Taiwan issue to US President Donald Trump during a telephone conversation on Monday, November 24. This was stated at a briefing by Peng Qing'en, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council (government) of the People’s Republic of China, an Ukrinform correspondent reports. “We will unite compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and together remember history, preserve the power of our country, and build a common future,” he added. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4062880-si-czinpin-rozasniv-trampu-poziciu-kitau-stosovno-tajvanu.html
Despite “a few remaining points of disagreement,” President Trump heralded his team’s “tremendous progress” made towards ending russia’s war in Ukraine. Earlier, his top diplomat, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, also struck a relentlessly upbeat tone after “very positive” Ukraine talks in Geneva at the weekend. The “items that remain are not insurmountable,” he insisted.
Meanwhile, as a US military envoy met russian officials in Abu Dhabi, it was even declared that the “Ukrainians have agreed to the peace deal,” despite “some minor details to be sorted out.” That’s the uniformly optimistic spin the Trump administration has been putting on the tough and sensitive negotiations currently underway to forge a common US, Ukrainian and European position on how the Ukraine war should come to a negotiated end.
But according to a senior Ukrainian source with direct knowledge of the negotiations, there are still significant gaps between what the Trump administration is asking of Ukraine, and what the embattled authorities in Kyiv are prepared to accept, reports CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/25/europe/us-ukraine-peace-talks-obstacles-analysis-intl-hnk
Given that russia does not agree even to the terms of the original plan, all the US trade with Ukraine on certain points, which looks like a typical example of shuttle diplomacy, makes no sense at all. As I have repeatedly said, you cannot stop russia with talks, and no one in the West is going to fight with it. Ukraine also does not have the ability to fight independently. Therefore, Ukraine must agree to everything that is offered to it or be left without money and support at all, which will lead to even worse consequences.
Are we any closer to peace in Ukraine? After a frantic, often confusing few days of diplomacy, Donald Trump seems to think so. "We're getting very close to a deal," he told reporters on Tuesday.
But from the russians, apart from some discontented mutterings about European involvement and unauthorised leaks, the response has been somewhat muted. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Wednesday that Moscow viewed some elements of the latest draft positively but "many require special discussions among experts". Separately, President Vladimir putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said it was "premature" to think that a deal was close.
Given the gulf that exists between Ukraine and russia on so many key issues – including territory, Nato membership, who should pay for Ukraine's reconstruction and how will those involved in war crimes be held accountable – it is hard to see all the necessary pieces falling into place anytime soon. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly0jjv2lg1o
It seems that the zones of influence have already been determined and all that remains is to sell the situation to the Ukrainians, who have managed to believe in their invincibility.
Meanwhile, russia is doing more and more damage to Ukraine's power system every day and is preparing for another major strike. https://mind.ua/news/20297858-vorog-atakuvav-energetiku-v-kilkoh-oblastyah-ukrayini
It seems that power outages are now lasting only a few hours a day, thanks solely to restoration efforts and warm weather.
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I’m glad to hear that the power outages are shorter at the moment.
I agree with your views on the peace proposal and mostly on the general trends between the countries involved. However, I think that you might assume far too much rationality and analytical thought to the US positions and actions from the Trump administration.
As a captive audience member experiencing their shitshow for the last 10 months, I can confidently say that very little of what they do has careful thought behind it, except perhaps the cruel, grotesque, and largely extralegal immigration policies of Reichskommissar Stephen Miller. (However there is a plan, which is to reduce the republic to an authoritarian quasi-Christian state.)
Of course there are some competent people there but many are overwhelmed by incompetent and servile cabinet secretaries, or because they are frequently countermanded by the President who apparently has the attention span of a squirrel unless personal money, prestige or revenge is involved. Sec. Of State Marco Rubio fits into this latter category.
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I see that the home of Andriy Yermak is being searched by NABU and SAPO.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c058lp086zvo
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65149
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Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosińska-Kamyś, commenting on the information about the search by anti-corruption services of the house of the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, stated that the strategy of supporting Ukraine remains unchanged.
At the same time, Kosińska-Kamyś stressed the need for transparency in anti-corruption policy, without which "it is impossible to join the European Union," writes the Polish news portal wPolityce.pl. https://zn.ua/ukr/POLITICS/polshcha-ochikuje-vid-ukrajini-pojasnen-cherez-obshuki-v-jermaka-zmi-.html
Zelensky's chief of staff resigns after Ukrainian anti-corruption raid on his home https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg9nd2wddno
I would think that someone decided to leave in time and blame everything on Zelensky. It seems that the dismantling of the regime is really underway. If russia also collapses, then Ukraine will have to hold out a little longer and will have the opportunity not only to win, but also to receive Kuban and Kursk as reparations.
In the short term, uncertainty and the risk of complete chaos are increasing even more.
President Vladimir putin has stated that russia will lay down arms only if Kyiv's troops withdraw from territory claimed by Moscow. During his comments to reporters putin again expressed his contempt for the Ukrainian leadership, which he said he considered illegitimate. There was therefore "no use" signing any documents with them, he added. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp84nl57v0lo
So far, we have a missile attack after a week of preparation. https://glavred.net/ukraine/skoro-budet-massirovannyy-obstrel-monitory-nazvali-obekty-kotorye-mogut-byt-pod-udarom-10719590.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news Tomorrow, its consequences will be known.
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I still couldn't sleep at night despite the latest medication, which makes me sleepy even during the day. Powerful explosions and flashes outside the window were interspersed with the buzzing of drones and air defense fire. Nearby, debris from downed drones hit houses, killing and injuring people and causing fires. In the morning, the traditional roll call in messengers and calls to friends to see if everyone is alive. Those on the right bank were left without electricity and water, some without heat.
More than 600,000 people in the Kyiv region of Ukraine were without power on Saturday morning after an overnight russian attack. Ukraine's energy ministry said more than 500,000 of these were in the capital itself, with the rest in the surrounding region. It attributed the power losses to missile and drone strikes on energy infrastructure in the city and several other regions. Around 36 missiles and nearly 600 drones were launched on targets across Ukraine overnight, officials said, killing three and injuring dozens of others. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c87ld49xdxwo
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gylngx7go
No less upheaval is taking place in politics. The former top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday told The Post he is headed to the frontlines — hours after he submitted his resignation from the position in the wake of a raid on his home by Kyiv’s national anti-corruption bureau. “I’m going to the front and am prepared for any reprisals,” Andriy Yermak told The Post in an impassioned text message Friday night. “I am an honest and decent person.” He then apologized if he no longer answers calls. He did not say when or how he intended to go to the frontlines of the war against russia. https://nypost.com/2025/11/28/world-news/andriy-yermak-is-prepared-for-any-reprisals-after-resignation-from-ukraines-govt/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz0nljm4y74o
Due to changes to the legislation during the war, it became possible to avoid criminal liability through voluntary mobilization, which many corrupt people took advantage of, but where exactly they serve remains a secret. Therefore, such statements were received quite critically.
Recently, a new system of recruiting combat units was approved by sending recruits directly to the units where they are now to undergo training, and not in training centers as before. They say that this was done so that the mobilized would have fewer opportunities to run away. https://24tv.ua/novi-pravila-rozpodilennya-novobrantsiv-mizh-pidrozdilami-chomu_n2961499
On the other hand, it is very reminiscent of what was mocked two years ago when the russians threw their soldiers into the trenches without training. So, I wonder if we will see Yermak in the trenches and how soon?
But for me personally, all these events are almost insignificant compared to the fact that Kate, after her interview with the coordinator, is going to the MUN conference. Model UN simulations engage hundreds of thousands of students each year, helping them to learn more about the principles of the UN and how it functions. Many of today’s leaders in law, government, business and the arts – including at the UN itself – participated in Model UN as students. https://mymun.com/
https://www.un.org/en/mun
This is a significant step towards engaging in the world of international relations.
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Excellent news about Kate, who is to be at the MUN!
I am about 60% done with your manuscript editing, having disciplined myself to accomplish 10 pages per day. I have not been able to keep up with the forum but I'm glad you are doing as well as you can be under the circumstances.
Braden
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Congratulations to Kate! It will be an excellent learning experience, and an opportunity to make connections with others that may be helpful in the future.
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Thank you Braden and Bob!
This has lifted my spirits tremendously lately, despite everything else. We feel God's support every day!
In recent days, russian attacks have mainly targeted the power grid and the outage schedule is getting worse. But 6 hours of electricity a day is not so bad considering that there is heating and water. On the other hand, there is no frost yet.
On the night of November 30, after a large-scale strike on Kyiv, russia also attacked the city of Vyshgorod, north of the capital. A strike on a high-rise building killed one person and injured 19, including children. More than a hundred people had to be evacuated. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cd9z221vjnpo
Today, during the airstrike on the Dnipro, many people were killed and injured. My friend's windows were broken by the shock wave. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/12/01/novyna/suspilstvo/rosiyany-vdaryly-ballistykoyu-po-dnipru-ye-poraneni
Ukraine is responding, but the scale is certainly unparalleled. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported strikes on several important facilities on russian territory - an aircraft repair plant in Taganrog, Rostov Region, and the Afipsky Oil Refinery. The Security Service of Ukraine said that they had hit Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea. The latest actions have sparked objections from Turkey. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c741me42jn9o
Ukraine's deep-strike drone campaign targeting russia's oil and gas production facilities has already cost its enemy 10 percent of its refining capacity, according to industry experts. Still russia operates the world's third-largest refining system and has substantial built in surplus capacity. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Ukraines-Oil-Strikes-Are-Hurting-Russias-War-Economy.html
Negotiations in Florida between senior US officials and a Ukrainian delegation aimed at ending the war are "complex but very constructive." US and Ukrainian representatives call them successful, but the main thing is what russia will say. https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-venezuela-immigration-ukraine-news-11-30-25
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/01/europe/us-ukraine-talks-russia-war-analysis-intl-hnk
The political crisis in Ukraine has generated interesting comments from some politicians who rarely speak their minds.
Valery Zaluzhny reflects on the political goal of the war and unexpectedly comes to the conclusion that since 2019, russia has been actively preparing for an invasion, while Ukraine, on the contrary, has been deteriorating its military capabilities. What a strange coincidence with the change of government in 2019 and the publication of these thoughts only after it became obvious that this government would soon leave. https://www.liga.net/ua/politics/opinion/polityka-i-viyna-realnist-proty-ochikuvannia
Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko calls for restoring democracy and becoming stronger, accusing the central government of corruption. https://www.pravda.com.ua/columns/2025/11/29/8009587/
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The recent quiet nights have allowed me to get a good night's sleep, but I still feel sleepy all day. Maybe this combination of weather and medication is causing the apathy.
It turned out that since March 2022, the second power unit of the Khmelnytsky nuclear power plant has been operating with partial equipment malfunctions. The problem concerns the turbine mechanism, where the fifth-stage blades are missing. Because of this, the maximum electrical power of the power unit is currently set at 900 MW. This is 100 MW lower than its estimated design capacity. https://suspilne.media/khmelnytskiy/1173862-hmelnicka-aes-pracue-z-obmezennam-potuznosti-cerez-poskodzenna-turbini-ak-ce-vplivae-na-energosistemu-ukraini/
The director of one of the largest charitable foundations, "Return Alive," Taras Chmut, in an interview with the Suspilne newspaper, provides a critical overview of the situation at the front, describing it as a strategic crisis caused by a shortage of personnel and the inability to maintain a continuous line of defense.
He reveals in detail the problem of the quality of mobilization, indicating that every month a significant percentage of people enter the army, who are a burden on the system, which leads to an acute shortage of manpower in combat infantry units.
Chmut emphasizes that failures are the result of systemic problems in state administration and military planning, which proves the illogical creation of new brigades in conditions of a lack of personnel. He also believes that there are disproportionately many rear units compared to combat units. https://texty.org.ua/fragments/116404/nam-treba-vyznachyty-skilky-ye-chasu-do-kolapsu-syl-oborony-derzhava-mozhe-ce-poraxuvaty-chmut/
I don't know how correct his conclusions are, but they fit naturally into the general state of governance.
Former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and current Ambassador to the United Kingdom Valeriy Zaluzhny has apparently arrived in Ukraine from London. He may be on holiday, or he may want to be closer to the center of events that will unfold due to the political crisis and the peace process. https://www.stopcor.org/ukr/section-politika/news-vdoma-najkrasche-eksgolovkom-zsu-zaluzhnij-natyaknuv-scho-perebuvae-v-ukraini-01-12-2025.html
In the late summer of 1939, the foreign ministers of the USSR and Germany, Molotov and Ribbentrop, signed the infamous non-aggression pact. It divided Eastern Europe between the countries and allowed Hitler to invade Poland.
Europe was recently shocked by the American-russian plan for Ukraine. And while it is not correct to compare these documents directly, one thing is alarming: the two largest military powers are once again trying to “reshape” the continent in their own interests, writes Bloomberg columnist Mark Champion.
This, he believes, was clear back in February. At that time, it was already becoming clear: the Trump administration is more interested not in a fair peace for Ukraine, but in restoring relations with russia — at the cost of Kyiv and its European allies. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-12-02/ukraine-peace-deal-is-becoming-the-worst-threat-to-europe-since-1939
So the question is whether Europe is going to do something or allow russian aggression to spread across the continent. For Ukraine, the outlook is getting worse and worse. The European Central Bank has refused to support the idea of a so-called "reparation loan" for Ukraine for 140 billion euros, writes the Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/616c79ee-34de-425a-865e-e94ba10be788
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner are in russia today to meet with President Vladimir putin to discuss a possible peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/trump-ukraine-russia-venezuela-12-02-2025?t=1764695686259
russian President Vladimir putin says Europe's demands for the end of the war in Ukraine are "not acceptable". In a speech in Moscow, he adds: "We are not going to fight with Europe, but if Europe wants to fight with us, we are ready right now". https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwypq7xjvdqt
Interestingly, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Moscow at the same time as Wittkoff. https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/12/02/glava-mid-kitaya-priletel-vmoskvu-odnovremenno-suitkoffom-a181599
It seems, soon Ukraine will not be able to prevent the US and russia from deciding their own fate. Unfortunately, even in Ukraine, many do not understand that peace negotiations are actually only between the US and russia, and any agreement will be concluded only between them. Ukraine and Europe are removed from the negotiation process and can only influence something through actions. But Ukraine will not be able to do anything, and Europe will not want to.
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Five hours of talks between russian President Vladimir putin and top United States negotiators did not yield a breakthrough on a possible Ukraine peace deal, writes CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/02/europe/russia-ukraine-putin-us-witkoff-talks-intl-hnk
It was impossible to hope for anything else. Moreover, russia is threatening to step up strikes on Ukrainian ports and ships heading to them, Vladimir putin said in response to recent naval drone attacks on russian tankers in the Black Sea, russian media reported. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/1061086
Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, co-chaired the 20th round of China-russia strategic security consultations with Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Security Council of the russian Federation, in Moscow. The two sides exchanged in-depth views on the Ukraine crisis. Shoigu introduced russia's position and considerations, appreciated China's efforts to support peace, and stated that russia has the full capability and firm will to achieve its strategic goals and eliminate the root causes of the crisis. Wang Yi elaborated on China's consistent position, stating that China supports all efforts conducive to achieving peace, supports reaching a comprehensive and lasting peace agreement, and will continue to maintain strategic communication with russia on this matter, The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reports. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/zyxw/202512/t20251202_11765303.shtml
China consistently opposes any unilateral sanctions not approved by the UN Security Council and believes that pressure on Moscow, including the use of frozen russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine, will not contribute to the settlement of the russian-Ukrainian conflict, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a briefing. https://ua.news/ua/world/kitai-vistupiv-proti-sanktsii-shchodo-rf-nagoloshuiut-na-politichnomu-vreguliuvanni-mzs
The EU did the math and decided that Ukraine must fight for another four years: Europe will provide the money, writes the New York Post. Helping Ukraine defeat russia is a cheaper prospect for Europe than giving into the Kremlin’s concessions, according to a new study titled “Europe’s Choice” out of Norway. Funding Ukraine’s war effort over four years will cost European governments between $606 and $972 billion, but it would cost them almost double, between $1.4 and $1.8 trillion, to reinforce its eastern flank if Moscow gets its way. https://nypost.com/2025/11/30/us-news/russia-getting-its-way-would-cost-europe-hundreds-of-billions-more-than-ensuring-ukraine-victory-study/
Unfortunately, this report does not include calculations of how much this will cost Ukraine and how much the life of each Ukrainian who will die if the war continues is estimated at. Unfortunately for some Ukrainians (who have to go to war) it looks like the Ukrainian government is once again getting money to catch people and send them to the front, fearing that in case of defeat the russians will do the same to them. On the other hand, for such a Ukrainian it makes no difference who exactly does this to him and the talk about him having to die exactly for Ukraine does not really inspire him.
This morning I was woken up by a call from my friend whose brother had been caught. However, the laws don't work in this case, and I don't deal with bribes, so I said I couldn't help. It looks like he'll try to run away at the first opportunity.
Meanwhile, the russian Shahed strike drone was first spotted carrying an R-60 air-to-air missile. This is an unpleasant situation, because now the crews of aircraft engaged in the destruction of drones have to worry not only about catching up with the Shahed and shooting it down, but also about their own safety. Although our planes and helicopters have a missile launch warning system, it is not perfect everywhere. https://www.unian.ua/weapons/rosiyski-shahedi-yaku-zagrozu-nesut-raketi-na-vorozhih-dronah-13213746.html
Former press secretary of President Volodymyr Zelensky Yulia Mendel commented on the role of Andriy Yermak in the negotiations with russia. According to her, it was he who assured the president that there would be no full-scale invasion. She called him a very dangerous person and accused him of misleading President Volodymyr Zelensky. So it seems that now Zelensky will try to hold Yermak responsible for everything. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/mendel-pro-yermaka-vplyv-na-zelenskoho/33611619.html
The Ministry of Finance reports that as of October 31, 2025, Ukraine's public and state-guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 8,276.2 billion (or USD 197.2 billion). In October, the total amount of public debt and state-guaranteed debt increased by UAH 252 billion (USD 2.98 billion). https://www.mof.gov.ua/uk/news/derzhborg_u_zhovtni_2025_roku_zris_perevazhno_za_rakhunok_kreditu_era_vid_ies_iakii_ne_vplivaie_na_borgovu_stiikist-5454
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Would be quite disappointing if it weren't so predictable. Why would Putin agree to any compromise when Italy, France, and Finland are the latest European countries to back away from anything resembling security guarantees for Ukraine, post-war, as part of an peace proposal. Echoes of the Budapest Memorandum. Apparently they had thought that the US would again do all of the heavy lifting?
I guess Z. and his administration members are still less corrupt than Putin, but the gap narrows all the time, so just as the mobilized see less reason to sacrifice their lives, European countries seem to be drawing the same conclusions (although they would only be sacrificing their budgets, not their lives).
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For a more optimistic view of the war situation, please watch this analyst.
https://youtu.be/QgeLpEqVEnQ?si=-yUwcLrlHvkTCXiO
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For me, this video is another confirmation that russia has changed its approach and become more effective. They do not use what is not effective and have increased the production of what is effective. A year ago, 60 drones at a time was considered a big attack, now they launch 600 drones at a time. Ukraine has been fighting for the third year mostly with weapons given to it by its allies, and China has not yet given russia anything, but will do so as soon as necessary.
The Chinese company Lingkong Tianxing has introduced its new hypersonic missile YKJ-1000. It is capable of covering a distance of up to 1,300 km and flying at speeds of Mach 5-7 (from 6,125 km/h to 8,575 km/h). At the same time, its declared cost is only 700,000 yuan, or about $99,000. This makes its cost close to the cost of drones, thousands of which russia is using to attack Ukraine every month. The problem is that to intercept such a missile, the Americans, for example, will need to spend at least one SM-6 missile or THAAD, which cost $4.27 million and $15.5 million respectively, and the supply of which is very limited. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3334140/90-cost-cut-chinese-civilian-firm-enters-mass-production-mach-7-hypersonic-missiles?module=inline&pgtype=article Maybe that is why Europe is acting so quietly, understanding the consequences of China's direct entry into the war?
The DeepState map shows which direction the front is moving. The russian army has advanced near three settlements in the Donetsk region. https://apostrophe.ua/society/armija-rf-prosunulas-poblizu-trokh-naselenikh-punktiv-na-donechchini-deepstate.html
I heard that one of the reasons for the russian slowdown is not due to exhaustion, but that russia rotates soldiers and first destroys everything with aerial bombs and drones before sending soldiers to attack. As for real losses, we do not know them. But the fact that russia has not yet mobilized and has enough volunteers speaks for itself. Again, China can send its soldiers if necessary. Will the West send its soldiers in such a case? Yesterday I heard the opinion that russia is fighting with one hand. I don't know the real state of affairs, but underestimating the enemy is one of the reasons for what is happening now.
I'm not talking about the state's policy, which has led to complete distrust of it. This is especially bad for the army. When a person volunteers for the position of a driver or accountant, and is thrown into the trenches as an assault rifleman, none of his acquaintances will volunteer again. The one who is forcibly taken to the front thinks not about how to fight, but about how to escape as quickly as possible. In general, this leads to people deceiving the state, which deceives the people. The lack of trust in the government calls into question its legitimacy.
In Lviv, during a busification, a detainee fatally wounded an employee of a mobilization center. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/12/04/novyna/suspilstvo/lvovi-cholovik-smertelno-poranyv-vijskovosluzhbovcya-tczk
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c075d82vzj2o?xtor=AL-73-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bukr%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bukrainian%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D
Despite the discussion, the 2026 budget did not increase the salaries of military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Instead, deputies voted for a significant increase in their salaries. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/svoboda-live-byudzhet-viyna-perehovory/33613086.html
The medical service complains that seriously ill people are being mobilized into the army, which wastes resources and is of no use. https://www.pravda.com.ua/columns/2025/12/04/8010332/
At the same time, Ukraine has a large reserve of mobilization resources. Judge of the Volovets District Court of the Transcarpathian region Oleksandr Pelykh, who was detained while accepting a bribe, was mobilized. This was reported by the judge's lawyer Serhiy Fesenko at a meeting of the High Council of Justice. https://zaxid.net/zatrimaniy_na_habari_suddya_oleksandr_pelih_mobilizuvavsya_do_zsu_n1625284
According to current legislation, court cases are suspended if the accused is mobilized - this is currently one of the most common ways to buy time and avoid punishment.
As the country spirals into a demographic disaster, Ukrainian authorities face a quandary: who will be left to pick up the pieces once the war ends? asked Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-stares-down-barrel-population-collapse-2025-12-04/
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Demographic (population) decline is a huge problem almost everywhere, including China, Russia, and of course Ukraine. I probably won't live to see the end result but the math makes it inevitable. Unfortunately for the world, the only populations that are growing are Islamic crazies and other backward cultures. My hope is in the return of Jesus, to save humanity from itself.
Be blessed this Christmas, Wlad and all other readers!
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My hope is in the return of Jesus, to save humanity from itself.
Be blessed this Christmas, Wlad and all other readers!
Amen!
Romans 11:33
Oh, the depth of the riches of the wisdom and knowledge of God! How unsearchable his judgments, and his paths beyond tracing out!
Thank you Braden!
Among all the trials the faith and hope in Him always support us! I wish everyone could celebrate Christmas with their families.
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russian President Vladimir putin's visit to India is ongoing. Hen has said Moscow is ready to provide "uninterrupted shipments" of fuel to India, as Delhi faces pressure from the US to stop buying russian oil. Modi repeated India's stance that it was not neutral on the war in Ukraine and stood on "the side of peace", welcoming efforts to find a "lasting" solution to end the war. He highlighted that increasing the "connectivity" of russia and India was a "major priority" for India.
The two leaders exchanged memorandums during Friday's briefing, outlining mutual objectives in areas including trade and agriculture. Modi announced two new 30-day visa schemes for russian tourists visiting India, and said that two new Indian consulates had opened in russia.
No major defence deals were announced, but the two men said there were agreements signed on shipbuilding, investments in civil nuclear energy and critical minerals. India and russia also agreed on an economic programme valid until 2030, the leaders said, spanning jobs, shipping and the health industry. putin said he was confident about increasing current bilateral trade from $60bn to $100bn in the coming years.
Modi said that "energy security has been a strong and important pillar of the India-russia partnership", but made no specific reference to oil. India - the world's third largest consumer of crude oil - has been buying large volumes from russia since the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g482m3yyzo
Yesterday US President's special representative Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law and advisor Jared Kushner met with Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov in Miami. Marco Rubio called the session "a productive continuation of the Geneva talks." He stressed that Washington's task goes beyond simply ending the war. He also announced the next phase of diplomatic efforts, with special envoy Steve Witkoff traveling to Moscow later this week. https://suspilne.media/1181402-u-maami-zaversilasa-zustric-ukrainskoi-ta-amerikanskoi-delegacij-dzerela/
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Andriy Yermak forbade him from establishing contact with Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, in early 2024. https://texty.org.ua/fragments/116432/kuleba-rozkryv-yak-yermak-zirvav-kontakt-iz-zyatem-trampa-klyuchovym-perehovirnykom-ssha-video/
The United States has presented an updated National Security Strategy, in which one of the key elements is the end of the war in Ukraine and the formation of a long-term model of its post-war resilience. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf
The United States has invited Poland to attend next year’s G20 summit in Miami, saying that the country has earned a place there after joining the world’s 20 largest economies. Meanwhile, South Africa, with which Washington currently has tense relations, will not be invited despite being a G20 member.
Poland has recently been pushing for acceptance into the G20, especially after its economy surpassed $1 trillion this year to become the 20th largest in the world, overtaking Switzerland and chasing down Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands. In a statement on Wednesday, titled “America Welcomes a New G20”, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Poland would be invited to participate in next year’s summit. That does not mean formal membership of the group; non-member countries are regularly invited to attend summits. “Poland, a nation that was once trapped behind the Iron Curtain but now ranks among the world’s 20 largest economies, will be joining us to assume its rightful place in the G20,” wrote Rubio. “Poland’s success is proof that a focus on the future is a better path than one on grievances,” he added. “It shows how partnership with the United States and American companies can promote mutual prosperity and growth.”
https://notesfrompoland.com/2025/12/04/us-invites-poland-to-take-its-rightful-place-at-next-years-g20-summit/
Nothing happens suddenly and for nothing. Poland once chose to join the West, elect a nationalist president, and ban the communist party, while Ukraine chose to elect a communist president and remain under russian influence. The difference in development is growing larger every year.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, russian drone and missile attacks on the energy sector continue every day. The russians destroyed the Kherson CHP on the night of December 4, so it had to be shut down. Thousands of people are entering the winter without heat in their homes. https://informator.ua/uk/hersonska-tec-pislya-obstriliv-zupinila-robotu-misto-zahodit-u-zimu-z-naygirshim-scenariyem
In Chernihiv region, 90% of subscribers were left without electricity due to a power grid failure. https://donpatriot.news/at-chernigivoblenergo-povidomylo-pro-masshtabne-znestrumlennya-v-regioni-ta-nazvalo-prychynu
In Kyiv, the electricity was not turned off at all yesterday, but today the outages returned.
Ukraine strikes back. On the night of December 5, the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the infrastructure of the Temryutsk seaport and the Syzran refinery. Damage to the Saratov refinery has also been confirmed. https://unn.ua/news/u-henshtabi-ziavyly-pro-udar-po-syzranskomu-npz-ta-morskomu-portu-u-krasnodarskomu-krai-rf
Soldiers of the "Ghosts" special unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine have hit eight russian targets in temporarily occupied Crimea in two weeks, including a Su-24 bomber, three radar stations, and a freight train. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/4066378-udari-gur-po-cilah-u-krimu-droni-vrazili-su24-tri-stancii-rls-ta-potag-rosian.html
Meanwhile, the media is reporting the involvement of military units in the illegal seizure of control over the sanatorium. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/12/03/8010210/?fbclid=IwY2xjawOeKU1leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFmcHpLTzZpTTJZcFptcW1Xc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHg8BtfItbBPPCugKjZ5nmqDvmCrdIOO9wFbEqg2IEgeMAgwlkRhE-TsLpUkV_aem_AZDeC7qp4bS3Ph-Fz7QUgg
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The sun is shining in the morning and the temperature is near zero. Kyiv is quiet and only the lack of electricity can tell that something is wrong. Another expected shelling with missiles and drones took place at night and again the targets were the energy sector, railways and warehouses.
Overnight russia launched 653 drones and 51 missiles, most of which were downed, authorities said. One strike hit a railway hub at the town of Fastiv outside Kyiv, destroying the main station building and damaging rolling stock. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clydxj7my84o
In addition to the Kyiv region, other regions of Ukraine have been hit by russian missiles and UAVs.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c2dz0k2yr57o
The Ministry of Energy reported that on the night of December 6, the russian military launched a massive missile and drone strike on electricity generation, distribution, and transmission facilities in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Lviv, Odesa, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv regions. As a result of the attack, consumers in Odesa, Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Kharkiv regions were without power as of this morning, the ministry noted. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-ukrenerho-vidkluichennia/33614976.html
Since there is no frost yet and this is not the last attack, a lot can still change before the new year.
All this against the background of what I understand as the dismantling of the current government in Ukraine, which still remains controlled. Another deputy is accused of corruption. The Security Service of Ukraine, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office exposed an organized criminal group in Kyiv, which, according to the investigation, was headed by a people's deputy. She is suspected of extorting a large bribe. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ce8qzvrle6do
Interestingly, she offered to help impose sanctions on competitors of businessmen who turned to her. So my long-standing suspicions that the institution of sanctions, that is, extrajudicial restriction of the property rights of individuals and companies based on the president's decision, supposedly on the basis of ties to russia, was being used for other purposes, were confirmed. After all, many pro-government high-ranking officials with relatives in russia or in the occupied territories did not have any problems.
Politicians are bad managers for modern innovative design. It is better to hand over these processes to professionals, and even better - to a private manufacturer, the head of the Ministry of Defense noted. https://biz.nv.ua/ukr/sviy-biznes/oboronna-promislovist-ukrajini-stavka-na-privatniy-sektor-ta-innovaciji-50566064.html
That is, after years of corruption and the destruction of Ukraine’s defense potential, the authorities have admitted this and are now washing their hands of it.
The New York Times has published an investigation that found that the Ukrainian government had been obstructing the work of independent supervisory boards of state-owned enterprises for several years, creating conditions for widespread corruption. Ukraine’s Western partners have demanded the creation of such boards to oversee the spending of state-owned companies, particularly in the energy sector and defense procurement. However, the administration of President Volodymyr Zelensky has often left the seats vacant, filled the boards with loyalists, and rewrote the charters of the companies, maintaining government control. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/world/europe/ukraine-corruption-zelensky.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
At the same time, we see that in three years russia has reconfigured its military-industrial complex and is now producing many times more weapons precisely because large state-owned companies are engaged in this. It even has more armored vehicles now than at the beginning of 2022! https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/02/russia-more-vehicles/
And this is despite the fact that in modern warfare, tanks no longer have much importance and are not a priority in production.
On Saturday, December 6, Ukrainians celebrate the Day of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/4066445-v-ukraini-vidznacaut-den-zbrojnih-sil.html
But it hardly resembles a holiday. Due to the poor policy of the authorities, the attitude towards it is discredited from the mobilization stage, which is a very dangerous trend. In Odesa, a group of people attacked a minibus carrying mobilized men. Video from the scene shows a crowd quickly gathering near the van, after which the car began to be beaten and the windows smashed. People literally pulled the men out through the shattered glass. https://informator.ua/uk/v-odesi-napad-na-busik-tck-mobilizovanih-zvilnili-ce-trivozhna-tendenciya-2
You can blame the russians for everything, but they don't even need to make an effort to disrupt the mobilization in Ukraine, which is happening in this form. And while some are counting the number of years that the russians supposedly need to capture the rest of Ukraine, I hope that a peace agreement and a cessation of hostilities will happen before everything falls apart much sooner.
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I, too, wish that all people could spend Christmas with their families, including the soldiers who face almost certain death every week!
Z. should be ashamed of himself for allowing (and perhaps profiting from?) government corruption. Poland definitely deserves lots of credit for choosing a different path, despite years of corruption training under the Soviet system. Over here, there is growing admiration of Poland and other countries that didn't succumb to the pressure to allow mass migration of non-western civilizations into their countries, and are strengthening their own defenses rather than "hoping" for continued protection by the US (80 years after the end of WW2).
One minor point: South Africa was excluded from the G20 because it has continued to mismanage its economy and has dropped off the list of the top 20 economies by GDP. https://www.forbesindia.com/article/explainers/top-10-largest-economies-in-the-world/86159/1 (https://www.forbesindia.com/article/explainers/top-10-largest-economies-in-the-world/86159/1) That is quite a feat for a country that exports gold and other minerals, at a time when the price of those minerals is soaring!
Wlad, on the manuscript, I have had to slow down a bit due to other duties nagging at me. However, I am now on page 200 of 265, so it won't be too long!
Be well, friend.
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Reading my last comment a couple of days later, I want to clarify that I (and I think most Americans) consider Ukraine to be part of the West, not part of the East, and Ukrainians to be Westerners who treasure Western values. I know there may be those who, like Putin, consider Ukraine to be Eastern, but he's in a notorious class by himself.
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Wlad, on the manuscript, I have had to slow down a bit due to other duties nagging at me. However, I am now on page 200 of 265, so it won't be too long!
Be well, friend.
Thank you very much!
It seems to me that each time I spend more and more time on each page)
Daily attacks on energy continue and power outages are becoming sensitive even for household consumers. Not everyone can afford to buy an autonomous system for $1,000 or more and soon the question will be whether the time that electricity is available will be enough to charge the batteries.
The russians have also destroyed a reservoir dam that supplies water to Kharkiv. russian forces are also conducting a campaign of strikes on Ukrainian logistical routes in the northern Kharkiv region, likely to disrupt logistics and ultimately achieve battlefield advances in these areas. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/pechenizka-damba-navishcho-rosiya-vdarila-po-grebli-vodoshovishcha-bilya-harkova-novini-ukrajini-50566610.html
The peace agreement regarding russia's war against Ukraine is "already entering the finish line," but the issues of control over the Donetsk region and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant remain key, said US President's special representative Keith Kellogg. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/mirniy-plan-ssha-dlya-ukrajini-kellog-zayaviv-pro-klyuchovi-pitannya-50566495.html
Poland has been left out of a key London summit on Ukraine, where European leaders discussed US steps to end russia's war against Ukraine. Warsaw was not invited to the December 8 meeting in London, where the leaders of France, Germany, the UK and Ukraine are meeting, Polsat reports. This decision provoked a sharp reaction among former Polish leaders, who view such a step as a signal of a decrease in Poland's international weight and a limitation of its role in key European negotiations. https://gazeta.ua/articles/politics/_polschu-navmisno-viklyuchili-z-diskusij-schodo-zavershennya-vijni-ukrayini-z-rosiyeyu-zmi/1237733
Ukraine's President Zelensky has held talks in Downing Street with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.The leaders discussed the latest Ukraine peace plan, drafted during talks between Ukrainian and US officials in Florida last week. In brief comments before the talks, Starmer says "we stand with Ukraine", while Zelensky says "we need to make some important decisions". https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c4gpzep9n8et
I don't know what decisions he is going to make considering the loss of his friends (for several days now he has not been able to find even one person who would agree to head his office after Yermak's resignation) and the support of the people. I'm not even talking about his legitimacy, which many no longer recognize, but about the purely legal side of the issue.
Ukraine's President Zelensky simply does not have powers to sign any territorial concessions, according to the state's main law. Such power belongs to the Ukrainian people and is to be exercised through the referendum. Article 73 of Ukraine's constitution states that any changes to the territory of the country can be made only by an "all-Ukrainian referendum".
It means that all Ukrainian citizens, in all of its regions, must be able to cast their vote, freely and without any pressures. This includes those in the occupied territories - around 20% of the land currently controlled by russia in Crimea, Donbas and parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. It also includes the front lines. Also, legally the referendum cannot be held during martial law. This brings the situation to a vicious circle on the level of international diplomacy, and is one of the key points for Ukraine.
But it seems that all this is only a small part of the troubles associated with the change in the world order.
russia has welcomed US President Donald Trump's new National Security Strategy, calling it "largely consistent" with Moscow's vision. The 33-page document, unveiled by the US administration this week, suggests Europe is facing "civilisational erasure" and does not cast russia as a threat to the US.
"The adjustments we're seeing... are largely consistent with our vision," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in an interview published by russia's state news agency Tass on Sunday. "We consider this a positive step," he said, adding that Moscow would continue to analyse the document before drawing strong conclusions. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpvd01g2kwwo
Battlefield picture worsening for Ukraine as Trump pushes peace plan. russian forces have advanced on several fronts recently. President Vladimir V. putin signaled after talks with U.S. officials that he was not budging from demands, writes The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/06/world/europe/ukraine-pokrovsk-battlefield-russia.html
In three years, russia was able to occupy only 1.45% of Ukraine's territory, despite colossal losses in personnel. According to preliminary estimates, russia could have lost up to 1% of its pre-war adult male population in the war, concludes The Economist. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/12/02/as-america-pushes-peace-russias-battlefield-advances-remain-slow
I am surprised that so many people expects the russian economy to collapse from day to day, and Ukraine is ready to fight indefinitely. If the situation with the russian economy is unclear, although russia not only did not lose its resources, but also received 20% of Ukraine along with millions of people, and mostly volunteers are fighting, then Ukraine is fighting for the money of European partners and no longer has anyone willing to fight voluntarily.
Military Ombudsman Olga Reshetylova stated that the problems and shortcomings of the mobilization process cannot be a basis for aggression or attacks on servicemen of mobilization centers, who perform critically important functions for the defense of the state. She emphasized that the first incidents were recorded back in 2023, and the situation worsened due to the lack of timely legal assessment and moral condemnation of such actions.
According to her, the situation is gradually developing into a protracted social conflict that requires a new social contract. Reshetylova also stated that the state must immediately reform the mobilization system, since entrusting these functions to military personnel from mobilization centers is erroneous and dangerous. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/348033-pochemu-ttsk-stali-mishenyu-dlya-napadeniy-voennyy-ombudsmen-reshetilova-nazvala-glavnuyu-prichinu
Ukraine needs to step up mobilization and recruitment in response to the offensive of the russian occupation army, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky wrote on Telegram on Monday, December 8. https://ua.korrespondent.net/ukraine/4838655-syrskyi-zrobyv-zaiavu-schodo-mobilizatsii-v-ukraini
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Reading my last comment a couple of days later, I want to clarify that I (and I think most Americans) consider Ukraine to be part of the West, not part of the East, and Ukrainians to be Westerners who treasure Western values. I know there may be those who, like Putin, consider Ukraine to be Eastern, but he's in a notorious class by himself.
This gives me hope, but it saddens me that the majority of Ukrainians continue to elect pro-russian politicians and almost half use the russian language. I believe that if you want change, you have to start with yourself.
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Reading my last comment a couple of days later, I want to clarify that I (and I think most Americans) consider Ukraine to be part of the West, not part of the East, and Ukrainians to be Westerners who treasure Western values. I know there may be those who, like Putin, consider Ukraine to be Eastern, but he's in a notorious class by himself.
This gives me hope, but it saddens me that the majority of Ukrainians continue to elect pro-russian politicians and almost half use the russian language. I believe that if you want change, you have to start with yourself.
The Russian influence was inevitable, given the mass extermination of true Ukrainians that occurred under the Satanic Josef Stalin, followed by decades of further oppression and corruption as part of the Soviet Bloc. But when Ukraine survives this war, I would think that anyone remaining would no longer have any love for Russia or its culture!
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Blaming everyone else for your problems is a loser's path. Poland, too, was a Soviet country under russian rule for 42 years. The first thing the Poles did after gaining independence from Soviet rule was turn west. They still remember how much damage the russians caused them. It would be logical to expect at least the same attitude towards the russians from the Ukrainians, who suffered much more. But the 2019 elections showed that the majority of Ukrainians again elected the pro-russian government and oligarchs.
The level of financial independence and integration of Ukrainian citizens into the Polish economy has reached its highest levels in the past three years. Most Ukrainians in the neighboring country no longer rely on social benefits or charity, but are fully self-sufficient, although they are reducing remittances home. This is evidenced by a large-scale study by the National Bank of Poland. Despite the positive trend, a serious structural problem remains: 36% of refugees are working below their skill level. Experts call this phenomenon a loss of human capital. https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/raport-nbp-ujawnia-prawde-o-ukraincach-w-polsce-wnioski-moga-zaskoczyc/eb5p4dm
After journalists drew attention to the fact that information on the number of soldiers who left their units and deserted had disappeared from statistics, the Prosecutor General's Office explained that such information belongs to the category of restricted access information. https://hromadske.ua/viyna/256110-v-ofisi-henprokurora-poiasnyly-chomu-prybraly-zi-zvitiv-dani-shchodo-kilkosti-szch-ta-dezertyrstva
Withholding information is unlikely to reduce the number of deserters or boost the morale of the other men, but it does indicate that things are really bad.
The head of the Office of the Military Ombudsman noted in an interview that the process of mobilization into the army in its current form is ineffective and brings losses to the state - both financially and in terms of demoralization of society. Olga Reshetylova emphasizes that the state should change its approach to mobilization and start counting how much poorly organized processes are costing us. https://texty.org.ua/fragments/116439/uryad-maye-poraxuvaty-u-skilky-ukrayini-obxodytsya-neefektyvnyj-proces-mobilizaciyi-reshetylova/
The Ministry of Economy clarified that the employer has the right to terminate the employment contract with an employee who has not registered for military service and received military registration documents during the 45-day probationary period. https://kadroland.com/news/7776-zvilnennya-cerez-neonovleni-viiskovo-oblikovi-dokumenti-minekonomiki-vkazalo-na-yaku
So the army, the economy, and the people are suffering from the way the state organized mobilization, but all the authorities are proposing is to further strengthen it in its current form. There are no plans yet to introduce terms of service or get rid of corruption.
Ukraine is "ready for elections", President Volodymyr Zelensky has said, after US President Donald Trump repeated claims Kyiv was "using war" to avoid holding them. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/09/donald-trump-full-interview-transcript-00681693
Zelensky announced that he had addressed the Verkhovna Rada with a proposal to develop legislative mechanisms for holding elections during martial law. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn5l1474yv7o
Kyiv has enough shelters to hold the elections safely. This was stated by the head of the Obolon RDA, Kyrylo Fesyk. According to him, in the Obolon district alone, more than 480 shelters are officially registered, and this resource is sufficient for organizing polling stations. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/348262-kiev-imeet-dostatochno-ukrytiy-dlya-bezopasnogo-provedeniya-vyborov-glava-obolonskoy-rga
Given the obsession with which everything in Ukraine is being tried to be transferred to digital form and to tie a person to a smartphone, I do not exclude the desire of the authorities to hold virtual elections. It is easy to imagine what opportunities for manipulation this gives to those who manage information on the relevant servers. Someone will vote for you remotely and it will be almost impossible to prove that you did not do this. It will also make it easy to block bank accounts or even delete documents of undesirable persons. The authorities show total digitalization as a great advantage, and some call it digital slavery. Dictators of the past could only dream of this. Some think that Ukraine is a large testing ground for what will soon await the rest of the world, not only in military technologies.
It seems that even problems with electricity will not prevent this. Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko says the government is preparing a solution to redistribute consumption and direct electricity to household consumers. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1127018.html In recent days, electricity has been available in Kyiv 2-3 times a day for up to 8 hours.
The government is also considering reducing the list of critical infrastructure in the regions and introducing shutdowns even for such facilities if they have generators or alternative power sources. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/vymykatymut-te-shcho-nikoly-ne-vymykaly-kabmin-zminiuye-pravyla-roboty-enerhosystemy-2974712.html
In addition to power plants, russia also used drones to attack gas infrastructure facilities. Critical equipment was damaged as a result of the attack. https://www.unian.ua/economics/energetics/rosiya-atakuvala-kritichne-gazove-obladnannya-ekspert-ociniv-naslidki-dlya-naselennya-13221222.html
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I absolutely agree with the statement on losers blaming others for their circumstances. In the US this has become a pastime for many people, including among minority groups who are told that they can't succeed because others are holding them back, capitalism is holding them back, and other excuses that politicians tempt then to believe. Whether there is any truth to it or not, it becomes a self-fulfilling thing, since it is always easier to blame someone and remain in poverty, than it is to act responsibly, develop good values, work hard, and succeed. I read an essay on this "excuse-itis" disease and its effects, when I was a teen, and it caused me to resolve never to blame others for my circumstances.
I don't have enough knowledge to know why the Poles chose to take responsibility and move forward, while some Ukrainians chose not to. My guesses would be that the Poles had a longstanding culture that was much more distinct from Russian culture, due to their distance from Russia. Also, they still had more of a Christian orientation than Ukraine did, after the fall of the Russian bloc (I think this is true - but you would know better than I would as to the veracity of that assumption).
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I have a zip hoodie from my Krav Maga self defense school. On the back, in a circle around the school logo, it says:
Nobody Cares Work Harder
Occasionally I get compliments on it when out shopping and usually a comment about how more people need to do it.
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I don't have enough knowledge to know why the Poles chose to take responsibility and move forward, while some Ukrainians chose not to. My guesses would be that the Poles had a longstanding culture that was much more distinct from Russian culture, due to their distance from Russia. Also, they still had more of a Christian orientation than Ukraine did, after the fall of the Russian bloc (I think this is true - but you would know better than I would as to the veracity of that assumption).
You are right. I also haven't heard anything about Poles going to work in russia, unlike Ukrainians.
At one time, Poles chose Catholicism and Latin, and Ukrainians chose Orthodoxy and Cyrillic.
So in general, every nation receives the consequences of its actions in the past.
The reality in Ukraine, which finds itself on the border of the interests of the West and the East, remains difficult, despite the positive statements of the government.
In November 2025, the growth of real GDP in Ukraine accelerated to 5.3% compared to 2.3% in October. The main drivers of the acceleration were agriculture, domestic trade, construction and the processing industry. This was reported by the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture.
I am not an economist, but I understand what manipulation of numbers is. You can rejoice in comparing conditional percentages, but in fact the state of the Ukrainian economy should be expressed in negative values. https://me.gov.ua/News/Detail/5b1c984c-a1c6-4741-815b-8006e660629a?lang=uk-UA&title=UkrainskaEkonomikaZroslaNa5-3-UListopadi2025-Roku
The White House has complained about the large number of negotiations and meetings to end the russian-Ukrainian war. US President Donald Trump has blamed both russia and Ukraine - he says he is "disappointed in both sides", White House press secretary Caroline Levitt said at a briefing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UuqTZnCjDA (17m)
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Zelensky said territory and control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant remained the two main unresolved issues in the peace plan proposal for Ukraine. In a sobering briefing to reporters, Zelensky addressed the US desire for a quick end to the conflict, the complex nature of the ongoing negotiations, and his belief that russia had no desire to stop the war. However, he noted that it would not be fair for the Ukrainians to withdraw unilaterally, and that russia should also pull back by the same distance. Zelensky said these were "very serious concerns" and that Ukraine might not accept the proposal at all – although he opened the door to elections or a referendum to give the Ukrainian people a choice. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgjnd9y52pno
russia hits back at Europe's big plan to loan Moscow's frozen cash to Ukraine. russia is taking legal action in response to moves by Ukraine's European allies to use Moscow's frozen assets to help Kyiv fund its military and economy. The russian Central Bank is suing Belgian bank Euroclear in a Moscow court, and russian officials accuse the EU of an act of theft. Ukraine is running out of cash, after almost four years of russia's full-scale war. For Europe, the solution to plugging Kyiv's budget hole of €135.7bn (£119bn; $159bn) for the next two years lies in frozen cash held by Euroclear, and EU leaders hope to sign that off at their Brussels summit next week. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98nnd01g91o
The media writes that now a soldier who left the unit and then returned will be sent to the assault troops. https://hromadske.ua/viyna/256175-viyskovykh-poperedzaiut-shcho-perevestysia-cherez-szch-mozna-bude-tilky-u-shturmovyky?_gl=1*12c0g6z*_up*MQ..*_ga*NzYyMzAxMTIwLjE3NjU0NTcyNjU.*_ga_5QMSRNVKWQ*czE3NjU0NTcyNjQkbzEkZzAkdDE3NjU0NTcyNjQkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_V3WYTMZ64J*czE3NjU0NTcyNjQkbzEkZzAkdDE3NjU0NTcyNjQkajYwJGwwJGgw*_gs*MQ..*_ga_QRXBZKG0YN*czE3NjU0NTcyNjQkbzEkZzAkdDE3NjU0NTcyNjQkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_FFQQ6F8PRK*czE3NjU0NTcyNjQkbzEkZzAkdDE3NjU0NTcyNjQkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_47KVPEYFJ4*czE3NjU0NTcyNjQkbzEkZzAkdDE3NjU0NTcyNjQkajYwJGwwJGgw&gclid=Cj0KCQiA9OnJBhD-ARIsAPV51xNObs3Uo7a3gOkHkQHX-Atb_njXTRw6p3_S37kvXSDgA-CkznUEZ2EaAt5sEALw_wcB&gbraid=0AAAAACVRZnqggSq2bnHJXYPe6M4qDGe6f
The armed forces deny this, but the problem is deeper. Unauthorized leaving of the unit used to be not only a way to avoid service, but also a crooked mechanism to get into another unit. Due to the fact that soldiers who went to the army, for example, as drivers or engineers, could be sent randomly to another unit without taking into account qualifications, experience and health status, and the commanders of such units ignored the appeals of the soldiers, the latter chose to simply flee from such units. Instead of improving mobilization and the service itself in order to increase efficiency and make the best use of available resources, the state seems to be choosing only senseless coercion again.
In Odesa, an incident involving the beating of Roman Pokydko, a soldier of the 36th separate marine brigade, who returned from captivity in the Russian Federation six months ago, is being investigated. According to the public organization “Defense of the State. Odesa”, on December 4, a group of nine people who introduced themselves as employees of the Peresypsky district mobilization center stopped Roman Pokydko on the street. Despite presenting military documents, medical certificates and a certificate of a combatant, the serviceman was pushed into a mobilization center car. He was tear gassed and beaten, and then thrown out of the car while it was moving. https://novosti-n.org/ua/news/V-Odesi-praczivnyky-TCZK-pobyly-zvilnenogo-z-polonu-zahysnyka-Mariupolya-328743
The lawyer and family of the deceased mobilized Roman Sopin have filed a complaint with the court against the investigator. They accuse him of deliberately not ordering a number of examinations that would help to reveal the circumstances of the man's death. Earlier, the lawyer for the family of the deceased in the mobilization center of Kyiv Roman Sopin, Oleksandr Protas, questioned the official version of the mobilization center that the cause of the man's brain injury was a fall. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-advokat-sopina-zajavljaje-pro-bezdijalnist-slidchoho/33619425.html
Meanwhile, military technology is beginning to be used outside the front lines.
Yesterday, two explosions rocked Kyiv. One person was killed and four were injured. The deceased and one of the injured were National Guard soldiers. https://glavnoe.in.ua/news/vnaslidok-vybuhu-u-kyyevi-zahynuv-naczhvardiyecz-sbu-rozsliduye-terakt
A private house in Sokilnyky near Lviv was hit by a FPV drone. Police are investigating an attempted murder. https://zahid.espreso.tv/novyny-lviv-u-privatniy-budinok-u-sokilnikakh-bilya-lvova-vluchiv-dron-politsiya-pratsyue-na-mistsi
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It’s good to see you posting more often, Brady, and I enjoy your thoughtful viewpoints. I agree with you and Wlad over the last several posts.
It really is astonishing to see the Ukrainian government choose and even extend nearly the worst policies possible despite the clear failures of them. One definition of insanity is to do the same thing repeatedly yet expect a different result.
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Greetings Bob, and thank you! I could well be wrong, but my experience is that when leaders keep doing things that haven't worked, it's a sign that they are in a position that they are grossly unqualified for, and don't know what else to do. Z has been very good at influencing western partners, but I think he is terribly unqualified in other areas such as policy, fighting corruption, and decision making.
I am now done editing 250 pages of 266, of Wlad's manuscript, so I'm making good progress.
Wishing you and Wlad a very merry Christmas!
Brady
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Hi all!
Thank you Braden for your great help! Working on the third book, and even more so on the fourth, has made me think about the fate of Ukraine and what lessons can be learned from it. I will probably write in detail about my thoughts on this matter.
In my opinion, Zelensky played his role as well as possible, but one should not expect anything more from him than from an undeniably talented, but still just an actor. Those who really make decisions and shape policy aimed exclusively at personal enrichment, but found themselves in a situation where their fate may be directly linked to the fate of the country. It seems that even the option to steal and run no longer works. At least the fate of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych or Assad shows that they can only count on a sad life in exile. But this is still better than the fate of Hussein.
Thank you for your great help! Working on the third book, and even more so on the fourth, made me think about the fate of Ukraine and what lessons should be learned from it. I think I will write in detail about my thoughts on this matter. On the other hand, it is painful to watch your country being turned into a giant concentration camp, and the so-called civilized world pretending not to notice it. https://www.facebook.com/reel/1305009357951161
The position voiced by Zelensky on the transfer of the issue of territories to a referendum again plays in favor of russia. If Zelensky were to sign a peace agreement now and transfer power to patriots who would take advantage of the cessation of hostilities to develop Ukraine, this would make it easy in the future to abandon its implementation and, at the right opportunity, try to return the occupied lands. On the other hand, if this decision is made in a referendum, russia will declare that the entire people of Ukraine have abandoned the occupied territories and can no longer consider them Ukrainian.
Another thing is that if you ask me who can be considered patriots who are capable of leading Ukraine to success and victory, I will not be able to answer this question. It is clear that none of those who currently occupy high positions in the state can be considered patriots, since they hold them solely because of their loyalty and affiliation with the ruling regime. As for the youth and the hope that they will become the future elite, the situation is also extremely difficult. In addition to good knowledge of state management, which is almost impossible to obtain in Ukraine, you also need appropriate experience. It must be taken into account that the majority of capable people chose to leave Ukraine rather than devote their lives to hopeless struggle and hardship.
But first, in any case, the war needs to be stopped, and I decided to listen to what the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kirilo Budanov, has to say. Of course, he will never say everything he thinks and knows, but what he does say is also valuable. He believes that it makes no sense for russia to take real steps in this direction while it has the potential to attack the front and destroy Ukrainian energy during the winter. In his opinion, provided that Ukraine continues its resistance, russia may decide to stop no earlier than February, after further destruction of the energy sector will no longer have such an effect. He also believes that russia may attack Europe after it ends the war in Ukraine. In his opinion, it will need to preserve and use the existing potential of the army. If soldiers are sent home, on the one hand, it will increase the level of unemployment and crime, and on the other, in a few years they will lose their skills. He also says that replacing Putin with someone else will not change anything in russian politics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2m5Ns_wgjI8
This thus confirms that Europe is interested in supporting Ukraine and continuing the war for as long as possible. But I hope that between the extremes, everything will always be somewhere in the middle.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, fresh from a meeting with ussia's Vladimir putin, said he hopes to discuss a Ukraine-russia peace plan with U.S. President Donald Trump, adding that "peace is not far away". https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/peace-is-not-far-away-says-erdogan-returning-putin-meeting-2025-12-13/
Today more than 450 drones and 30 missiles were used by russia in overnight strikes, that hit energy and industrial infrastructure, officials said. More than a million households are without electricity in Ukraine after the Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Chernihiv regions were hit. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0l9954yr9ko
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Today the first snow fell. There was no shelling at night and everything looks very peaceful and calm. For the first time in many years I had a good dream. My parents were alive, and I was flying to some meeting by plane. This is probably a consequence of the fact that the last month of treatment gave results and I feel better. Also yesterday I talked for a long time with Kate, who took part in a very interesting event for the first time and was delighted with it.
It was the first edition of Tarnów Model United Nations. https://mymun.com/conferences/tarmun-2025
Model UN simulations engage hundreds of thousands of students each year, helping them to learn more about the principles of the UN and how it functions. Many of today’s leaders in law, government, business and the arts – including at the UN itself – participated in Model UN as students.
The United Nations supports Model UN simulations by building and maintaining strong links between the UN and Model UN participants. It does this by sharing first-hand knowledge about the work of the UN at Model UN conferences; providing guidance with organizers to create accurate and authentic simulations; and encouraging Model UN clubs to take concrete action to support UN values and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). https://www.un.org/en/mun
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I’m happy that Kate was delighted with the MUN conference. She seems like a perceptive and thoughtful young woman who will have success in whatever she chooses to do.
I agree that a referendum is a bad idea, for multiple reasons beginning with the obvious fact that those in the occupied territories could not participate, thus invalidating the legitimacy of it.
It seems to me that the government of Ukraine, the ministers and officials, the Ukrainian people themselves, the economy, and of course decisions on the course of the war are all arriving at an inflection point almost simultaneously. One somewhat wild card is Trump who, so far, has only damaged Ukrainian interests and improved those of Russia. The question in my mind is how quickly and much worse his actions, or inaction, will be. Perhaps he will surprise me though.
Two AI engines reported to me, based on European government forecasts and independent forecasts, that this winter in Ukraine is likely to have milder temperatures than normal, but with some short, sharp dips to as low as -20C expected especially in the northern and eastern oblasts. Somewhat more precipitation than normal is likely overall.
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I’m happy that Kate was delighted with the MUN conference. She seems like a perceptive and thoughtful young woman who will have success in whatever she chooses to do.
I agree that a referendum is a bad idea, for multiple reasons beginning with the obvious fact that those in the occupied territories could not participate, thus invalidating the legitimacy of it.
I am glad that we were able to support Kate and inspire her to study well and get her interested in such activities. A great merit in this is Guna, who spends a lot of time communicating with Kate and is a good example for imitation.
On the other hand, I am saddened by the fact that Seva does not use his abilities. Since I myself do not have great talents and have achieved everything solely through hard work and many efforts, I have to admit that discipline and work ultimately give a greater result than abilities without their proper application.
Regarding the elections, it is funny to observe how, in a fairly short time, Zelensky's principled and categorical position on the impossibility and inadmissibility of elections has changed to an instruction to parliament to prepare for them in the near future. https://24tv.ua/rada-nayblizhchim-chasom-maye-napratsyuvati-varianti-provedennya_n2970595
I wonder how the issue of voting for Ukrainians abroad will be resolved? On the one hand, it is impossible to ignore the millions of Ukrainians who have found refuge in the West, and on the other, the russians will talk about several million Ukrainians who live in russia, although they were all forced to accept russian citizenship long ago.
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Very cold here today - was -18C when we got up this morning, with about 5 inches of snow (~12cm). I plowed snow from our 0.4 km driveway so we could get out to church. Glad I didn't have to shovel that!
Very nice to hear that the Model UN is now underway and she is enjoying it!
I agree that as president, Z did what he could do, which is act a part, and he did it very well. We can only expect him to be what he is, not what we want him to be. He did a better job than I would have, most likely.
My views on the path forward for Ukraine and Europe in general are probably very divergent from the views of anyone else. Personally, I feel that no country is going to actually provide a security guarantee against Russia, no matter what they may say - when it comes right down to it, no nation is going to risk nuclear war unless their OWN existence is threatened. There is no "ally" so precious that the USA, or France, or the UK, are going to bet their very existence on that ally. That's why neither Trump nor Biden were willing to risk offending Russia beyond providing minimal military aid - no matter how small the risk is that Russia will use nukes, as long as the risk is not zero, the existential stakes are too high. The only thing that will stop Russia, is for every country on their border to possess their own nuclear weapons. I think the Baltic states, Finland, Poland, Moldova, etc are all at least as trustworthy to have them, as North Korea, China, or Russia. So then someone asks, "How can a small country like Finland or Estonia develop and maintain a nuclear deterrent arsenal?" To that I would say, how does North Korea (which has half the GDP of Estonia) do it? Here's how: Someone (China or Iran) helps them with the technology. If the autocratic powers of the world can do this, why can't the democratic powers?
I also don't believe that NATO would have ever fought Russia if they had invaded Europe - it was only the uncertainty of whether we would that stopped the Soviet Union from doing so - that and their own internal issues.
Having said that, the idea being put forth that the road to peace in Ukraine is for Ukraine to be demilitarized and rely on "allies" for defense, while Russia remains armed, is a nonstarter in my view.
I'm sure that you all will find plenty to dispute in what I've said, but since people have freely shared their thoughts, I thought that I would, also. :)
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Hi Braden! You made good points.
As for security, it requires a strong army, which is impossible without a strong economy, and strong diplomacy, which is impossible without strong diplomats. Unfortunately, all the corrupt officials and comedians of Ukraine taken together are unable to provide either.
As for any security guarantees, the Budapest Memorandum showed that the guarantor can be the first to violate the guarantee. Will nuclear weapons help? I think not because no one will actually use them.
President Volodymyr Zelensky offered to drop Ukraine's aspirations to join the NATO military alliance as he held five hours of talks with U.S. envoys in Berlin on Sunday to end the war with russia, with negotiations set to continue on Monday. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-demands-dignified-peace-us-ukraine-officials-meet-berlin-2025-12-14/
Neither side has yet made public any information about the results of the negotiations. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-berlin-zavershennia-perehovoriv-delehatsii-ukrainy-ta-ssha/33623699.html
Generally it seems quite ridiculous that Ukraine is at war with russia and is negotiating with the United States.
It seems that all the fundamental red lines are rapidly changing color and as I said - the result will be the same, only later and with greater damage to Ukraine, and with even greater victims. Well, the hedgehogs pricked themselves, cried, but continued to mate with the cacti...
The temperature in Kyiv is around 0C and the ground is a mess of mud and snow. It was quiet last night, although russia continues to destroy the energy sector every day and if the attacks continue at the same pace, residents of some large cities will have to live with constant power outages until spring. https://glavred.net/energy/v-ukraine-polnostyu-otmenyat-grafiki-otklyucheniy-ekspert-sprognoziroval-kogda-10724288.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
The most difficult situation is now in the south, where hundreds of thousands of people remain without electricity for the second day. https://uatv.ua/uk/sotni-tysyach-ukrayintsiv-zalyshayutsya-bez-svitla-pislya-ataky-rf-de-najskladnisha-sytuatsiya/
Kyiv and eastern Ukraine are close to a complete blackout, The Washington Post suggests. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/12/15/ukraine-russia-electricity-energy-infrastructure-attacks/ In its opinion, the strikes threaten to completely disable transmission systems that move electricity from west — where most of Ukraine’s electricity is currently being produced — to east, which would effectively split the country in two, said several people familiar with the crisis.
Ukrainian underwater drones Sub Sea Baby for the first time attacked a russian diesel-electric submarine of the Varshavyanka class, which was in the port of Novorossiysk. The operation was carried out by the Security Service together with the Navy. The vessel suffered critical damage and was effectively disabled. It was equipped with four Kalibr cruise missile launchers. This class of submarines is known as the “Black Hole” due to the hull’s ability to absorb sound and remain invisible to sonar. https://babel.ua/news/123742-ukrajinski-pidvodni-droni-vpershe-atakuvali-rosiyskiy-pidvodniy-choven-vin-vivedeniy-z-ladu
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Hello Wlad, that is an interesting point you've made, "Will nuclear weapons help? I think not because no one will actually use them.", but of course it is also true that neither the US or Russia will use them, and yet all western nations have cited Russia having nukes as being the reason they have put so many restrictions on what weapons they will provide to Ukraine, how they can be used against Russia, an unwillingness to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and so on. It is also (in my opinion) why Russia has been careful not to trigger Article 5. I think nations are unwilling to cross the line with nuclear-armed states as long as there is any nonzero probability that doing so will elicit a nuclear response from a wounded, cornered animal.
Speaking of rationality... if the leaders and voters of Ukraine are (as you say) not capable of thinking long term enough to develop the economy and culture that can support at least a formidable, deterrent conventional military, then the only rational thing for an individual citizen (slave) to do is to more or less permanently get out of there and out from under the constant threat of Russian invasion, once the war's end affords that opportunity. Personally I don't see "European forces will protect Ukraine" or "US forces will protect Europe" as being a realistic long-term bet: If the US (under Biden or Trump) has not been willing to fight Russia up to now, why would they be willing to do so in the future? - No matter what we/they may "commit" to doing, on paper, I don't see us/them doing it.
Europe has a lot more at stake than the US in keeping Russia intimidated, but to develop a combined world-class military force, the EU would have to put their internecine squabbles aside and actually unite into a single power, which to me seems unlikely. As 99% of the people living in Europe only know war as a service that the US provides for them, I believe most of Europe is in denial that the Pax Americana free rider arrangement is coming to an end, quickly, and they are going to have to take over.
That's why I think a nuclear firewall along Russia's border could be the only realistic way to intimidate Russia into nonaggression. But, maybe I'll be wrong the Europeans will get their act together? I hope so.
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Here's an interesting article I read this morning. I admit that the Black Sea is a geographic feature that I haven't paid much attention to, up to this point:
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/russias-escalation-in-the-black-sea-has-turkey-on-edge/?tpa=YmZmMGVkZWRmZTBmNTA5MDA5NGMzODE3NjY2NzgwMjNmODY2ZDk&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Fgeopoliticalfutures.com%2Frussias-escalation-in-the-black-sea-has-turkey-on-edge%2F%3Ftpa%3DYmZmMGVkZWRmZTBmNTA5MDA5NGMzODE3NjY2NzgwMjNmODY2ZDk&utm_content&utm_campaign=PAID%20-%20Everything%20as%20it%27s%20published (https://geopoliticalfutures.com/russias-escalation-in-the-black-sea-has-turkey-on-edge/?tpa=YmZmMGVkZWRmZTBmNTA5MDA5NGMzODE3NjY2NzgwMjNmODY2ZDk&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Fgeopoliticalfutures.com%2Frussias-escalation-in-the-black-sea-has-turkey-on-edge%2F%3Ftpa%3DYmZmMGVkZWRmZTBmNTA5MDA5NGMzODE3NjY2NzgwMjNmODY2ZDk&utm_content&utm_campaign=PAID%20-%20Everything%20as%20it%27s%20published)
Erdogan may be getting the unforeseen consequences of his trying to keep one foot in the Russian camp, and one foot in the NATO camp? Or perhaps he's known, all along, what a tenuous balancing act he is forced into by geography?
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I’ve been thinking about the prospect of more nuclear armed countries in Europe. I agree that nuclear weapons are the best known way to avoid annihilation by deterring the enemy from attempting it.
I don’t know where the deterrence level begins for a huge nuclear armed country like Russia ruled by a bloodthirsty dictator eager for conquest. Probably it isn’t just a few warheads on a few missiles.
France has around 250 warheads on submarine ballistic missiles and some air launched nuclear cruise missiles. The UK has around 120 warheads on submarine ballistic missiles. Each of them operate 4 nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. So that gives some sense of what two wealthy European countries have determined is necessary for a credible operational deterrent.
Similar numbers are estimated to exist in India and Pakistan but are most likely not maintained in high alert ready to launch status on land, but India has nuclear powered and armed submarines which probably are. Israel is thought to have 80 or so, but not thought to be in a high alert ready to launch status.
Could a nation with only a few nuclear warheads and a small number of ballistic missiles on mobile launchers have a credible deterrent to annihilation? Perhaps, but only if the enemy believes that they cannot reliably be eliminated in a first strike and that the will to use them is unquestionable.
The will to fight is probably weakest point. Already Russia constantly attacks the West with propaganda and provocations in an attempt to destroy that. Would they succeed eventually? Unclear, but they have certainly had some success amongst significant portions of target populations even for conventional weapons.
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Hi Bob - yes I agree that those are the "$64,000 questions" about the idea of creating a nuclear firewall around Russia. To work, there would have to be a delivery system that could stand at least a plausible chance (25%? 15%?) of getting through to someplace that Russia would not be willing to sacrifice, such as Moscow or perhaps even St Petersburg. A plausible choice of getting through without being intercepted, that is.
I know it sounds like a crazy idea, but what's the alternative, really, when you are a small nation in the shadow of a totally untrustworthy, expansionist, militaristic regime, that doesn't value its own citizens any more than Stalin did? An all-Europe conventional force could possibly work, but I don't think the Europeans are capable of uniting to the degree that would be required, or sacrificing any of their generous social benefits for the sake of defending the former Soviet Bloc - something that would certainly be required.
So far at least, there is no situation I know of where a country has invaded a nuclear armed state. There can be a first time for anything, but the evidence so far is that it's a good deterrent for aggression. I concede that the chances of this being adopted are close to zero, though.
I definitely don't trust any honoring of the "security guarantees" that the Europeans are proposing as a peace settlement - unless they agreed to ironclad commitments to actually station European fighting troops near the eastern border of Ukraine - and I don't think Putin would agree to that anyway - do you?
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Hi guys! Thanks for your thoughts. Unfortunately, we know too little about what is really happening. Perhaps this is a concerted show of the elites for their peoples, the main purpose of which is to distract attention and keep them in fear. Let me remind you that the armies on the chessboard are fighting fiercely, while those who move the pieces are usually best friends or do it for money or fame.
The presence of nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan does not prevent them from regularly fighting conventional wars. Just as Israel has never used its nuclear weapons against Iran. There is an opinion that russia has actually become a province of China, which will never allow its nuclear weapons to be used in such a minor conflict from their point of view.
Turkey's position is clear and the Black Sea is very important for regional states, among which Turkey wants to dominate. Turkey has too many economic benefits from cooperation with russia to spoil relations over Ukraine. Let's not forget that Turkey has historically both fought and been in alliance with both Ukraine and russia, and keeping Crimea is its long-standing dream.
The US is promising Ukraine security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5. However, Washington has hinted that the agreement must be agreed before Christmas, otherwise the subsequent terms may be less favorable, Politico reported. The offer is the strongest and most explicit security pledge the Trump administration has put forward for Ukraine, but it comes with an implicit ultimatum: Take it now or the next iteration won’t be as generous. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/15/us-ukraine-article-5-security-00690826
The United States is opposing European Union initiatives to seize frozen russian sovereign assets, deepening the rift between Washington and European capitals on the issue, the British newspaper The Times reports. According to the publication, US administration officials are privately warning their European partners against such moves and stressing the potential financial consequences. Washington is making it clear that if the funds are seized, the EU and the UK will have to compensate them in the future. https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/frozen-russia-assets-ukraine-eu-us-hcrt8xjmw
In my opinion, it is significant that in Beijing, the First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Serhiy Kyslytsia, held Ukrainian-Chinese political consultations with the Assistant (in the rank of Deputy) Minister of Foreign Affairs of the PRC, Liu Bin. It seems that this is the first meeting of this level in China with Ukrainian diplomats, who were previously ignored there, along with the Ukrainian Ambassador to China. Kyslytsia, one of the best Ukrainian professional diplomats, was appointed Deputy Minister after being recalled from his position as a Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations. So this once again confirms that only people who are not part of the regime’s team can benefit Ukraine, although it is sad that he is forced to work for them. https://interfax.com.ua/news/diplomats/1129569.html
Meanwhile, activists point to the example of Kyiv, where billions of dollars are literally being buried in the ground that the country could have used to support the army or citizens. Large-scale infrastructure projects and unnecessary construction of bridges and road junctions, the sole purpose of which seems to be the use of budget money by contractors close to the government. https://zn.ua/ukr/local-government/bez-modeljuvannja-ta-inkljuzivnosti-jak-stolitsja-vitrachaje-miljardi-na-nepotribni-rozvjazki-ta-zolotij-asfalt.html
The National Bank of Ukraine has held a tender for the purchase of an automated system for destroying coins by pressing. This coincides with the adoption of a law on changing the name of coins from "kopeck" to "shag" (step). Considering that such small coins have already almost gone out of circulation due to inflation, this looks like a new attempt to distract the public from more important things and possibly spend a little more budget money. https://censor.net/n3591206
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Some more thoughts, FWIW.
Yes, a few nuclear weapons wouldn’t be an effective existential defense against a tyrant who would accept the total destruction of one or two of his own principle cities as the price of his conquest. I believe this is one reason, along with overwhelming redundancy to get through defenses, for the much higher numbers that we see around the world.
Yes, India and Pakistan skirmish regularly along their disputed border, with occasional casualties. But neither is willing to launch a bigger invasion given the nuclear missiles aimed at each other. One can argue, (but can’t prove) that much worse conventional fighting has been averted by nuclear deterrence. This type of continual low level conflict might be the scenario for a small nuclear armed country bordering a rapacious Russia, which obviously doesn’t care if it loses soldiers. If it can wear down the will to fight and intimidate other small nations by such incursions then it will do so.
Nuclear weapons are not cheap however, and there are high ongoing costs and dangers requiring strict control. Their security must airtight to prevent any theft or accidental mishandling. Command and control must be absolute and fail safe such that none can be launched without order from the highest national command authority. All of this must be redundant and forever, surviving changes in governing party and administration.
Nuclear materials degrade over time so warheads must be taken apart regularly and refurbished. This means maintaining a native nuclear weapon industry with the attendant risks of terrorist material diversion or blowing up such a facility creating a radiation disaster. There will be the ongoing need to constantly procure the necessary raw fissile material from somewhere if not available natively through mining and refining with huge numbers of centrifuges. Supercomputers to simulate designs. And lastly, where does a small country explode their first bomb to verify the design works?
It seems that Israel is the only small nation so far to have achieved nuclear status, though they have never confirmed this. Most experts believe that their nuclear material was produced natively at Dimona where they have their reactors and nuclear industry but initially with a French reactor and probably some American help as well. The 1979 Vela detection incident in the southern ocean may have been a nuclear test explosion done with South African apartheid regime help or in partnership. It’s conceivable that this type of support from large nuclear powers could be replicated to help another small country become nuclear, but I doubt it. It’s not the 1960s and 70s anymore.
Could a small country simply buy nuclear bombs from a friendly nuclear power, and pay to have them refurbished? In theory yes, but what country would sell their most secret devices to another nation and maintain them considering the risk to themselves from that action? Friendly countries today could be enemies tomorrow.
The more I ponder it, the more I believe that effective long range conventional defense is the only practical answer for a small nation in the foreseeable future, and in alliance with large nuclear power, if possible, to provide a credible “umbrella”. This is another interesting discussion.
PS.
I doubt that Russia would allow any nation on their border to develop nuclear weapons.
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Hello Bob. I "get" the high cost of nuclear weapons and agree with you on that. I suppose the financial analyst that I once was, and still have elements of ;) always compares it to the cost of alternatives and their effectiveness. To me, the "cost" of an entire country being rubble-ized by Russia (as Ukraine is experiencing presently) makes the cost of not developing a truly formidable deterrent force very, very costly - almost incalculably expensive, in fact. I think we agree on that, the only question is whether a conventional force is the better option, or a nuclear one. Pakistan, being half the size of Israel in the measure that counts (GDP) has taken (and somehow afforded) the nuclear option AND the conventional one, something that probably any country would have to do... after all, you don't respond to a small conventional incursion by launching a nuke! And Russia is very good at brinksmanship, evidenced by the drones appearing over the western European airports in past months, the drones flying just barely into Poland, moving the boundary markers in Georgia and the Baltic states, and so on. They are jerks, and it shows.
Obviously I don't know the answer to this conundrum of having to deflect an evil empire wannabe like Russia, and also making it practical and affordable. I'm not a military guy. But something tells me that the solution has to involve outside the box thinking, which the Europeans are particularly bad at, and made worse by their unworkable EU compact... can you imagine a system where it only takes one US state to veto legislation? We would literally get nothing accomplished., and that's the EU situation in a nutshell. They can't even agree to use (or how to use) impounded Russian assets to bolster Ukraine. It's crazy!! Bottom line: if the Baltic states are counting on the EU to protect them, they're in big trouble.
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Hi Brady,
It certainly is a conundrum! I don’t know the right answer either and obviously there are far better informed and experienced people in such matters. It’s an interesting exercise to try to work out some basics about it here. I agree that if a country decides to have nukes they will still need a very strong conventional military able to project punishing power at short and long distances into Russia. Having that capability yesterday would not be too soon.
You’re completely correct about the EU bureaucracy and decision speed. Just look at Orban frequently throwing a wrench into the works. There is also the deep reluctance rooted in the horror of being the prime battleground for two world wars in less than 30 years.
However I’m encouraged by Germany finally realizing that they can no longer ignore the Russian Bear and taking large steps to improve their military, rather than completely rely on the US. This was helped substantially by Trump’s needling over many years but the main driver of finally taking action is the terrible object lesson in Ukraine which cannot be wished away.
I saw a “60 Minutes” TV interview of the German minister of defense and was very impressed with his forthright description of the situation and actions to make large improvements. I think that would have been politically impossible just a few years ago. Speaking of such changes, I believe that eventually they will need to develop and deploy nuclear weapons.
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Yes, a few nuclear weapons wouldn’t be an effective existential defense against a tyrant who would accept the total destruction of one or two of his own principle cities as the price of his conquest.
russians are always bluffing. They are like a bully at school - very rude until they get punched in the face. They will never use nuclear weapons because it would be the complete end for them. They are dumb but not stupid
Nuclear weapons are not cheap however
Did a broken and partially occupied country, millions of refugees, and hundreds of thousands of people killed come at a cheaper price?
Nuclear materials degrade over time so warheads must be taken apart regularly and refurbished. This means maintaining a native nuclear weapon industry with the attendant risks of terrorist material diversion or blowing up such a facility creating a radiation disaster. There will be the ongoing need to constantly procure the necessary raw fissile material from somewhere if not available natively through mining and refining with huge numbers of centrifuges. Supercomputers to simulate designs. And lastly, where does a small country explode their first bomb to verify the design works?
You should ask North Korea about this)
I doubt that Russia would allow any nation on their border to develop nuclear weapons.
Exactly! That's why you have to do something to live the way you want, not your neighbor.
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You’re completely correct about the EU bureaucracy and decision speed. Just look at Orban frequently throwing a wrench into the works. There is also the deep reluctance rooted in the horror of being the prime battleground for two world wars in less than 30 years.
However I’m encouraged by Germany finally realizing that they can no longer ignore the Russian Bear and taking large steps to improve their military, rather than completely rely on the US. This was helped substantially by Trump’s needling over many years but the main driver of finally taking action is the terrible object lesson in Ukraine which cannot be wished away.
It seems that only Poland is actively working on its own security so far. Quietly and without pathos, they have bought a bunch of weapons and trained hundreds of thousands of reservists, while the Germans seem to be adopting Ukraine's experience in how to catch their own men. They probably need to negotiate with the imams now)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4tQylc1nuY&t
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russians are always bluffing. They are like a bully at school - very rude until they get punched in the face. They will never use nuclear weapons because it would be the complete end for them. They are dumb but not stupid
They don't need to use nuclear weapons first. They might be overrunning a small bordering country with only conventional forces. Let's say that small country has two nuclear weapons and decides the existential moment has arrived. It hits Russia with their first nuclear weapon, destroying a major city. 1) Would the Russians stop and withdraw? 2) Would they just accept the nuclear attack, maybe two and keep going to seize the country? 3) Would they retaliate in kind with a nuclear weapon, perhaps leading to other countries launching against them and armageddon? Or 4) would Russia have never attacked in the first place because of the presence of nuclear weapons?
I would hope its 4. However I don't think we can say the probability of 2 is zero however, it depends on who is master of Russia at the time and how secure his position is.
Did a broken and partially occupied country, millions of refugees, and hundreds of thousands of people killed come at a cheaper price?
No, one cannot put a price on that. I think Ukraine should have kept at least some of the nuclear weapons it inherited from the Soviet Union. At the time there were something like 170 ICBMs and dozens of strategic bombers along with stored nuclear bombs. There would have been many problems because launch codes and processes were in Moscow but I believe that would have been overcome to place control with Ukraine.
You should ask North Korea about this
My point was that there is an entire expensive industry and attendant security to create and maintain forever, and a place to explode the test bombs. Democracies must take into account the opinions of their voters, and in a small country with no vast deserts, mountains or remote islands for testing, this can be a challenge.
(N. Korea has native uranium deposits, mines them and then produces their own plutonium. They also spend hugely on the military to levels not likely to be tolerated in most countries. The regime doesn't care if they starve their population, or have radiation leaks and contamination, and the population cannot object to any of it without them and their family being sent to a labor camp to die eventually.)
Exactly! That's why you have to do something to live the way you want, not your neighbor.
Of course I agree with this, but with the awareness of what may happen, the point being that Russia will react badly to a bordering European state developing nuclear weapons, which could be just bluff along with hybrid warfare or concevably involving military strikes. There is precedent though, American nuclear weapons were stationed in Turkey during the cold war and some are widely believed to be stationed there today.
My opinion: If a country and their people believe that they need nuclear weapons in addition to strong conventional forces to deter Russia then they should pursue them.
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President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky met with President of Poland Karol Nawrocki in Warsaw today. During the meeting, they discussed the joint strategy of Warsaw and Kyiv, the economy, Ukrainian refugees, and complex historical issues. This is Zelensky's first personal meeting with his Polish counterpart. And it took place only four months after Nawrocki officially assumed the post of president, although Zelensky has repeatedly traveled through Poland during his foreign visits.
During the meeting with Zelensky, President Nawrocki presented the President of Ukraine with the publication "Documents of the Volyn Massacre" and said that 4.5% of Poland's GDP since 2022 has gone to support Ukraine. At the same time, when asked to comment on the significant contribution that Ukrainian refugees have made to the Polish economy, Nawrocki replied that this fact indicates that Ukrainians in Poland feel good, as well as that Poland has been open since 2022, having accepted over a million Ukrainians.
Karol Nawrocki, amid growing anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland, insisted that Zelensky first come to Warsaw and thank Poland for its support before he himself would consider a visit to Kyiv.
Nawrocki, a nationalist historian, has a long list of complaints against Kyiv. He accuses Ukraine of not considering Poland an equal partner, and criticizes it for not being grateful enough for taking in Ukrainian refugees and for providing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
History is another sensitive topic. Nawrocki accuses Ukraine of not acknowledging its responsibility for the mass killing of Poles in Volhynia between 1943 and 1945, calling it “genocide against the Polish people,” even though the Poles also killed and deported many Ukrainians.
So Nawrocki made the most of the situation to demonstrate his negative attitude towards Ukraine. Unfortunately, his opinions are shared by too many Poles, otherwise he would not have won the presidential election. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4ge0ww0dd4o
Meanwhile, more and more Poles are deciding to sell their homes and move to another country.
Some northern countries have been sending cash to Kyiv for years, but many Europeans don’t see why they should, writes Politico.
EU leaders reached a deal to borrow €90 billion on the financial markets to keep Ukraine afloat for the next two years. “We committed, we delivered,” boasted the President of the European Council António Costa. Beyond the spin, the pattern is clear. A divided bloc of European states argued for months in public and private over who should pay the bill, and it’s probably not settled yet.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine was facing a funding shortfall of €72 billion next year.
In Germany, 45 percent said they would support cutting financial aid to Kyiv, while just 20 percent said they wanted to increase financial assistance. In France, 37 percent wanted to give less and 24 percent preferred giving more.
Faced with splits between northern nations that are tiring of spending endless billions on Ukraine and others that never have done, Europe’s leaders opted for the easiest answer this week. And even that was almost too hard.
“We have a simple choice,” said Donald Tusk, Poland’s grim-faced prime minister, as he entered one of the most consequential European Union summits in a generation. “Either money today or blood tomorrow. And I am not talking about Ukraine only. I am talking about Europe.” https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-still-doesnt-want-to-pay-to-save-ukraine-european-council/
EU countries, on paper at least, represent a collective economic superpower compared to russia. The total combined GDP of the EU’s 27 countries’ stands at €18 trillion while russia’s GDP is €2 trillion. So even with this budget, the EU chooses to be greedy rather than strategic. Thus, nothing changes for Ukraine, except that more people will die and more territories will be occupied, unless the US and China intervene. Or the Ukrainians decide that enough is enough.
The attitude towards soldiers in the army is not always good and some commit suicide because of this, as discussed in the BBC investigation. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypp1jwjz1o
By the end of 2025, all four military units of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were created from the very beginning of the full-scale war under the brand "International Legions", should be disbanded. According to the plan of the General Staff, fighters, including foreigners, should continue their service in the assault troops.
Public opposition to this process has already begun. Some representatives of the legions say that the decision could lead to a significant reduction in the flow of foreign volunteers to the Ukrainian army. And possibly to its cessation altogether, which would have a bad effect on the reputation of the Ukrainian army.
There is also an opinion that they were inconvenient for the command because they showed Ukrainian soldiers that they could be treated differently and receive better logistical support. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1lrr87nnreo
Usually, workers at mobilization centers hunt Ukrainians together with the police, but sometimes there are failures in their coordinated cooperation. In Odesa, servicemen from a mobilization center were detained, suspected of beating a police officer. People joke that they don't know who to root for. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/348800-v-odesse-troe-voennykh-ttsk-izbili-politseyskogo-otkryto-proizvodstvo
putin tells BBC western leaders deceived russia and the West is 'making russia the enemy'. He also demanded that they be treated with respect and their interests be respected. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ce8np3pnljdt?post=asset%3Aeefdca90-232a-4b6c-9119-c622398764ce#post
The Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine, together with the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC), announced the readiness of the U.S.-Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund to make its first investments in 2026. The fund will focus on investments in critical minerals, energy, transport and logistics, information and communication technologies, and innovative technologies that ensure the resilience of supply chains and contribute to the economic security and well-being of the United States and Ukraine. https://rubryka.com/2025/12/18/amerykansko-ukrayinskyj-investytsijnyj-fond-vidbudovy-gotovyj-do-pershyh-investytsijnyh-proyektiv-u-2026-rotsi/
Ukraine announced the successful restructuring of its $2.6 billion GDP warrants, which will avoid significant post-war payments. The transaction will strengthen debt sustainability and improve the country's fiscal predictability. https://unn.ua/news/zekonomyt-derzhavi-miliardy-dolariv-u-pisliavoiennyi-period-ukraina-oholosyla-pro-uspishnu-restrukturyzatsiiu-vvp-varantiv
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You’re completely correct about the EU bureaucracy and decision speed. Just look at Orban frequently throwing a wrench into the works. There is also the deep reluctance rooted in the horror of being the prime battleground for two world wars in less than 30 years.
However I’m encouraged by Germany finally realizing that they can no longer ignore the Russian Bear and taking large steps to improve their military, rather than completely rely on the US. This was helped substantially by Trump’s needling over many years but the main driver of finally taking action is the terrible object lesson in Ukraine which cannot be wished away.
It seems that only Poland is actively working on its own security so far. Quietly and without pathos, they have bought a bunch of weapons and trained hundreds of thousands of reservists, while the Germans seem to be adopting Ukraine's experience in how to catch their own men. They probably need to negotiate with the imams now)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4tQylc1nuY&t
Poland has been marvelous.
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I watched Donald Tusk make the "money now or blood later" statement two nights ago during my nightly European news viewing on DW. It was a very memorable statement! Reminded me of Churchill saying to Neville Chamberlain, " between war and dishonor you have chosen dishonor - and you will have war."
Wlad, I sent the completed manuscript a week ago, did you receive it?
Best regards and merry Christmas to you all.
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Hi Braden! I received the file and am working hard to publish it. Amazon requires specific formatting which takes a lot of time and I want to publish the book by the new year.
Thank you very much! You did an extremely great job! The number of errors I have is still amazing)
Regarding Poland, things are not so clear-cut. On the one hand, regardless of political affiliation, all Polish leaders think first of all about Poland's interests. For example, in recent years, Poland has not only been purchasing imported weapons, but also restoring and increasing its own production. For example, the Polish company Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ) has begun developing a new version of the Krab self-propelled gun - Krab 2 and plans to significantly increase production of the current version of the self-propelled gun. Improvements in Krab 2 are based on the experience of operating the current version in a "high-intensity conflict". https://militarnyi.com/uk/news/polshha-rozroblyaye-novu-sau-krab-2-zavdyaky-dosvidu-ekspluatatsiyi-potochnoyi-versiyi-v-ukrayini/
This shows the great difference between Poland and Ukraine, which not only abandoned nuclear weapons, but also destroyed its own production, which remained from Soviet times - the production of missiles, aircraft, tanks and much more.
But Ukraine has become a victim of inter-party struggle in Poland. The party of the current president, Nawrocki, which is the opposition to the party of Prime Minister Tusk, accuses him of supporting Ukraine at the expense of Poland. I have seen many videos circulating on social media, where Tusk is accused of allegedly personally forcing other European leaders to agree to provide Ukraine with 90 billion euros, which the Poles have to pay for. Primitive manipulation and terrible disinformation, but we understand perfectly well who such propaganda is aimed at and what impact it has.
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There are about a hundred drone attacks every night, some of which hit their targets. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/rosijani-zapustili-po-ukrajini-majzhe-sotnju-droniv-chvert-iz-nikh-spiniti-ne-vdalosja-podrobitsi-nichnoji-ataki.html
Next week will be frosty and I am sure the russians will decide to make a big attack.
In recent days, russia has focused missile and drone attacks on the south, causing particularly extensive damage in the Odessa region. The part of the region that borders Romania and Moldova and is separated from the rest of Ukraine by a bay has lost both bridges and remains isolated.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky reported that in the Odessa region they are working on restoring the infrastructure and dealing with the people responsible for the region's air defense. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/12/20/8012777/
Well, the main thing is to find those who can be accused of the inability to repel drone and missile attacks without having the capabilities to do so. There is an old joke in Odessa about when, instead of building protective structures in the port, during a storm, stupid bosses send workers to repel the waves with their asses.
However, Zelensky has acknowledged that liberating occupied territories by armed force is no longer possible and diplomatic options would need to be pursued. Only a quarter of Ukrainians want to fight russia to the end, according to a Gallup poll published on Thursday, revealing the public’s plummeting belief in achieving victory, writes The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/07/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-zelensky/
Zelensky also admitted that Ukraine's own financial resources will not be enough to immediately maintain an Armed Forces of 800,000 people in the event of a ceasefire, therefore the Ukrainian side considers financing of the army by partners as a component of security guarantees. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/4071881-ukraina-samostijno-ne-zmoze-profinansuvati-armiu-u-800-tisac-osib-zelenskij.html
But many people believe that the problem is not so much the size, but the quality of the Ukrainian army whose expenses are constantly increasing and whose effectiveness is declining. It is known that war is a series of mistakes, but the one who makes the fewest mistakes and draws conclusions from his own mistakes wins. In any case, one of the most hardworking and talented people in Europe deserves more respect. What kind of motivation can be expected from millions of Ukrainians who live in the expectation of being caught on the street like a wild animal?
A former intelligence officer, a veteran of military intelligence who served in a unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate, draws attention to the fact that not all people are equally motivated, not all are equally suitable for fighting, and all this should be taken into account during the draft, since unmotivated and untrained soldiers do not bring much benefit, but resources are wasted on them. Separately, he mentions the low quality of commanders. He also points out that the soldiers are paid too low. $ 500 a month underestimates what they do, risking their lives, and this also affects motivation. https://24tv.ua/yak-voyuye-pidrozdil-artan-gur-mo-kirilo-budanov-sluzhba-gur_n2973689
The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, believes that Ukraine's main mistake was a "completely failed media campaign" regarding mobilization, and russia's role in discrediting it is much less than the authorities say. "We ourselves destroyed our mobilization. No matter who says otherwise, it's not true. We destroyed it ourselves," the head of the MID emphasizes. https://hromadske.ua/viyna/256687-my-sami-zruynuvaly-svoiu-mobilizatsiiu-vplyv-rosiyi-ne-takyy-velykyy-budanov?traffic_source=ukr.net
Military Ombudsman Olga Reshetylova emphasized that the requirements for the health of conscripts have been significantly reduced due to a shortage of personnel. Today, people with health problems can join the army, and the Military Medical Service only conducts a superficial examination, so the responsibility for timely updating of medical data lies with the conscripts themselves. https://glavcom.ua/country/society/vimohi-shchodo-stanu-zdorovja-pridatnoho-do-vijskovoji-sluzhbi-znachno-znizheni-vijskova-ombudsmenka-1093637.html
Another shift of responsibility to people whose medical documents are often not taken into account by medical commissions due to numerous violations of the procedure and the inability of patients to enter information about their diseases into the electronic system on their own. During my last visit, I asked the doctor what of my medical documents, which have accumulated a large folder over the past couple of years, are in the electronic system? She replied that nothing and she cannot even enter her own conclusion there after my examination. Thus, the entire activity of the so-called medical commissions is fake and the only benefit from them is only for the organizers of corruption schemes to recognize those who give bribes as unfit.
Separately, it should be noted the strange attitude of the state towards doctors. The same doctor can work in both a private and a public hospital, but his conclusions are recognized by the state only if he does so while in a public hospital.
With attacks on oil tankers, ukraine takes aim at russia’s war financing. Strikes on four vessels signal that Kyiv is willing to expand the maritime theater of the conflict in an effort to crimp Moscow’s military funding, writes The New York Times. Ukraine has used drones four times in the past few weeks to hit oil tankers from russia’s shadow fleet, escalating the war in the seas and showing that Ukraine’s security services agency feels increasingly emboldened to launch audacious attacks and claim them publicly.
One ship was struck by aerial drones on Thursday night in the Mediterranean Sea, more than 1,200 miles away from Ukraine. The other three were hit by sea drones in the Black Sea. The attacks are the first on russia’s sanction-defying oil tankers that Ukraine has acknowledged since russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The security agency also said it had attacked Russian oil production platforms in the Caspian Sea four times in the past 10 days, including on Thursday. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/20/world/europe/russia-ukraine-oil-tanker-attacks-shadow-fleet.html
It's bold and sounds good, but I wouldn't forget that these attacks harm not only russia, but also the buyers of its oil, who can also strike in an unexpected place.
The corruption scandal with the "Mindich tapes" led to the dismissal of Andriy Yermak from the post of head of the President's Office. But now he still communicates with the president every evening. This was stated by Inna Vedernikova in the article "The Illusion of Power. What a Fatal Mistake Zelensky Could Make." https://zn.ua/ukr/POLITICS/iljuzija-vladi-jakoji-fatalnoji-pomilki-mozhe-pripustitisja-zelenskij.html
A billionaire real estate developer and longtime golf partner of US President Donald Trump Steve Witkoff has unexpectedly become a key negotiator with the Kremlin. His rapid diplomatic rise, despite his lack of experience in geopolitics, was due not to the personal support of the American leader, but to the wishes of russian President Vladimir putin, The Wall Street Journal reveals an open secret. https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-witkoff-russia-envoy-04da229d
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A billionaire real estate developer and longtime golf partner of US President Donald Trump Steve Witkoff has unexpectedly become a key negotiator with the Kremlin. His rapid diplomatic rise, despite his lack of experience in geopolitics, was due not to the personal support of the American leader, but to the wishes of russian President Vladimir putin, The Wall Street Journal reveals an open secret. https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-witkoff-russia-envoy-04da229d
The inexperienced Witkoff’s vast overconfidence (a perfect Dunning-Kruger example), plain foolishness, and child-like naïvety in negotiating with the wily and brutal Russian dictator Putin is simply stunning. As in being hit in the head with a brick stunning.
It boggles the mind, for example, that on multiple occasions he reportedly accepted Putin’s demand to not have his own interpreter which obviously put him at a serious disadvantage. We must remember, though, that Trump has done the same stupid thing, and perhaps Witkoff didn’t want to act like he was more intelligent than his boss. It seems to have worked.
Then there is the recently reported coaching by Witkoff of a Kremlin official to make Russian peace proposals more attractive to Trump, this putting Russian interests above those of the United States let alone Ukraine’s. But I suppose he could argue that he was just following orders, since his boss does the same damn thing. No wonder that they have been friends and golf partners for years.
God help Ukraine with “friends” like this.
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Strikes from russia overnight targeted Ukraine's energy sector and civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian air force says 38 missiles and 635 drones were launched throughout the night and that, of those, 34 missiles and 587 drones were shot down by air defence systems. russia confirmed it struck Ukrainian energy facilities and other transport infrastructure used by the military, according to the state news agency Tass. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c157w754kqnt
Electricity supply in the Rivne, Ternopil and Khmelnytsky regions are "almost completely" lost, Ukraine's acting energy minister Artem Nekrasov says. "The situation remains difficult," he says. Blackouts have also been reported in Vinnytsya, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions. "A significant number" of Ukrainians also remain without power in the Odesa region and electricity rationing has been introduced across the country. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c157w754kqnt?post=asset%3A622fe60d-da9e-4fe3-baae-bd7b9f34bfab#post
One russian drone hits residential building in Kyiv. https://kiev.informator.ua/uk/u-kiyevi-cherez-ataku-shaheda-p-yatero-poranenih-dvoye-z-nih-vazhki-klichko
The Zaporizhstal metallurgical plant, probably one of the last operating in Ukraine, was forced to shut down due to massive shelling of energy infrastructure. https://24tv.ua/economy/ataka-energetiku-23-grudnya-zaporizhstal-zupinilo-virobnitstvo_n2975843
Due to the massive attack on Ukraine, in particular on energy infrastructure, Ukrainian nuclear power plants were forced to reduce their capacity, Acting Minister of Energy Artem Nekrasov said. https://zn.ua/ukr/energetics/pislja-masovanoho-obstrilu-ukrajinski-aes-zmenshili-potuzhnosti.html
Two Su-30 and Su-27 fighter jets were hit at a Russian military airfield near Lipetsk, the Main Intelligence Directorate reports. https://hromadske.radio/news/2025/12/22/na-rosiyskomu-viyskovomu-aerodromi-pid-lypetskom-urazyly-dva-vynyshchuvachi-su-30-ta-su-27-hur
For three consecutive days, the Ukrainian delegation and two russian ones met with American representatives in the United States to discuss the details of a "peace plan" to end the war in Ukraine. These meetings did not yield any concrete results. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ce8njr21dmro
Fitch Ratings lifted Ukraine’s score from selective default after the nation announced creditors agreed to an exchange of its growth-linked debt into conventional bonds. The credit assessor now rates Ukraine as CCC, eight notches below investment grade, it said in a statement Monday. Fitch rates the new bonds one level higher, reflecting the enhanced credit protections. The conversion offer was backed by 99% of the holders of the so-called GDP warrants, who will exchange nearly $2.6 billion of the securities for $3.5 billion in bonds, the Finance Ministry said Thursday. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-22/fitch-lifts-ukraine-rating-to-ccc-after-warrant-conversion
Europe is failing Ukraine, wrote Politico https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ursula-von-der-leyen-russia-assets/
Ukrainian leader’s reliance on allies from his comedy days is backfiring as corruption scandals involving his inner circle threaten to destabilise war effort. During the presidential campaign that would catapult him to power, Volodymyr Zelensky told Ukrainians that his administration would be different to previous ones.
Cronyism and corruption, long endemic within the nation’s politics, would be swept away, he said. “No to nepotism and friends in power”, went one oft-repeated slogan. It was a promise that he broke almost immediately. Within a year of winning a landslide victory in April 2019, the new president had installed into senior government positions 15 people connected to his comedy troupe, Kvartal 95. For years he has defended that decision, arguing the need to surround himself with those whom he can trust. Now though, amid a corruption scandal centred on figures who worked with Zelensky in the entertainment industry, it is a decision that threatens to spell disaster for his presidency and the war effort, writes The Times. https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/kvartal-95-cabinet-zelensky-comedy-troupe-lq90h9jmz
China hoarding grain at an astonishing rate – according to some estimates, it possesses nearly 70% of the global corn reserves and more than 50% of its wheat and rice stockpiles – has undoubtedly contributed to rising global food prices and food shortages by taking large volumes of grain off the market. China’s explanation for maintaining such large reserves is to ensure that there is no recurrence of the deadly famines that have plagued the country throughout its history. Still, given the growing geopolitical tension that has been brewing in this decade, it also is likely hedging against military confrontation or other cataclysmic circumstances that could snarl global supply chains. https://www.world-grain.com/articles/22197-from-the-editor-more-countries-stockpiling-grain
Interestingly, China did the same thing in 2021 before russia's invasion of Ukraine. https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/datawatch/china-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices
A hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance, this new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia but to keep the very structure of society intact. - George Orwell
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The Politico article is interesting, but unsurprising in what it reveals. As we've previously discussed here, it's a shame that Europe is so beset with cultural and governance issues that that they can't even agree that Russia should forfeit its assets - all it would take is for the French, the UK, and Germany to commit to help shoulder any liabilities that Belgium may incur in the courts by releasing frozen assets to Ukraine - but they won't step up.
The Europeans and the UK are so weak and pusillanimous that they have to leave the negotiations to the US, whose stake in the outcome of the war is far and away less consequential than Europe's. How frustrating.
Having said that, even if the Europeans had provided $300 billion of frozen assets to Ukraine, it would not cause our side to win the war, it would only enable Z to keep tossing bodies at Russia. To win, Europe would have to take the risk of enraging Russia by allowing Ukraine to start using sophisticated weapons on Russian territory. BUT the EU won't even accept the financial risk that Russia will prevail in the courts regarding frozen assets, so what are the odds that they'll risk angering Russia militarily? Zero, in my view.
I wish the news were better, nevertheless I want to wish you all the happiest Christmas that you can possibly have!
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Agreed, Brady.
Yes the US has a lesser stake, at the moment. But unfortunately the US administration is not simply less interested in the conflict, it has adopted pro Russian positions. I hope this changes, and soon.
Let’s focus on something more uplifting - Merry Christmas and best wishes to everyone here!
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Merry Christmas to all!
I'm spending these holidays with my wife and daughter and nothing can upset me. I am convinced again that with God's help we can move forward regardless of any circumstances.
Today I helped my daughter conduct her first QSO under her own call sign UT2UDE. There is one more radio amateur in the world!
russia has been attacking Ukraine's oil and gas infrastructure for the second day in a row, and some of the equipment has been put out of action. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/udari-100-droniv-rf-sprichinili-kritichni-1766568141.html
Ukraine has built new effective fortifications that can stop russian troops, according to OSINT researcher Clément Molin, who analyzed satellite images, photos, and videos of the construction of a new Ukrainian fortification line and came to positive conclusions about it. https://texty.org.ua/fragments/116568/ukrayina-zbuduvala-novi-efektyvni-ukriplennya-shcho-mozhut-zupynyty-rosijski-vijska-osint-doslidnyk/
I cannot assess how well these fortifications can stop the russians without taking into account other components of the defense, primarily the quantity and quality of personnel. Recently, the level of tension in society has been increasing, and the motivation to fight has been falling. And it is probably wrong to blame this only on people.
In the Rivne region, passersby beat a serviceman from a mobilization center who was carrying out mobilization measures with a crowbar. https://zaxid.net/news/
In Dnipro, a man attacked mobilization center servicemen with a knife after they detained him. Two servicemen were injured and hospitalized. https://glavnoe.in.ua/news/u-dnipri-cholovik-poranyv-nozhem-dvoh-vijskovyh-tczk-napadnyka-zatrymaly
A man died in the Kirovohrad region after getting into a traffic accident while trying to avoid being detained by servicemen of a mobilization center. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/na-kirovogradshchini-pomer-cholovik-pislia-avariyi-pid-chas-vtechi-vid-ttsk
On social media, people are mostly on the side of the evaders. Legal nihilism is spreading throughout the country as a whole. There is no trust and respect for the state from citizens, everyone is forced to think first of all about themselves. Recently, I have started to notice drug addicts again, who have almost disappeared from the streets since 2022. The streets of Kyiv are becoming dangerous again.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during a conversation with journalists, first named 20 points of the "basic document on the end of the war", which still do not suit russia. On the other hand, we have already seen many peace plans and points that Zelensky has presented in recent years, but which have not ended in anything. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/mirna-ugoda-dlya-ukrajini-zelenskiy-nazvav-golovnimi-umovami-garantiji-bezpeki-ta-integraciyu-50570924.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d9wg2pwl1o
Pope Leo has urged Ukraine and russia to find the "courage" to hold direct talks to end the war during his first Christmas remarks to crowds in St Peter's square. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm21728nwxlo
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Glad to hear that your Christmas is being spent with family! Congratulations to Kate (and you) for obtaining her amateur radio license!
The rest of the news is not so encouraging, but with God all things are possible.
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Congratulations to Kate on her first QSO! I hope that any “mic fright” (or key fright) quickly dissipated. I see that she already has a QRZ page too!
The article on the fortification line was interesting. It occurs to me that such defenses are likely much more effective in the drone era. Surveillance with cheap and plentiful drones is much easier and better than before, and they can be used to inexpensively and precisely attack any heavy equipment or sappers attempting to breach the line.
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I’m reading just now about the terrible Russian attack on Kyiv overnight and am worried. I hope you are all unscathed and also have power, heat and water.
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Hi all! There's no power and no heating, but we have gas and water. I hope it will be better soon.
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Hi all! There's no power and no heating, but we have gas and water. I hope it will be better soon.
Thanks I’m relieved that you all are ok!
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On the night of December 27, russia massively attacked Kyiv using cruise missiles, ground-based ballistic missiles, and aeroballistic "Daggers" launched from MiG-31Ks. In the morning, Kh-101 missiles launched from Tu-95MS bombers flew into Ukraine, which also attacked the capital through the center of the country. Hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles attacked various regions of Ukraine and Kyiv all night and in the morning. The attack lasted more than 10 hours. In total, russia launched 519 drones and 40 missiles at Ukraine overnight, according to Ukraine’s air force. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c7732j0jvnnt
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cn0k444ve2ko
Since the very morning, Kyiv was left without heating, electricity, and partially without water. In the afternoon, I had water, and in the evening, electricity. I still have no heat, fortunately the temperature is around 0C. In Kyiv, the water supply was restored, but 40% of residential buildings are still without electricity and heat. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/kievi-vidnovili-podachu-vodi-ale-tepla-shche-1766849995.html
In the afternoon Sergiy, Maryna and I drove around the district and looked at the consequences of drone hits on residential buildings. We watched one of the nearby impacts and the smoke over the city from our own window. I also saw a video on social media showing the destruction of the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant.
According to the British Guardian, peace talks initiated by the US are unlikely to end the war in the coming years. The only realistic scenario for Kyiv, in their opinion, is to save forces at the front, build up reserves, launch exhausting strikes on russia, and wait for a favorable moment for agreements. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/24/ukraine-best-hope-russia-inches-forward-on-battlefield
Speaking on board a plane bound for the United States Saturday, Zelensky said he would be looking for a signal during talks with Trump that Ukraine would receive legally binding security guarantees as part of any peace deal. Trump said in an interview with Politico that he expects the meeting with Zelensky to “go good,” but cautioned that the Ukrainian president “doesn’t have anything until I approve it.” He added that he also expects to speak with russian President Vladimir putin “soon, as much as I want.”
US officials said they were hopeful that Sunday’s Zelensky-Trump meeting would be productive after a week of intensive efforts between US and Ukrainian negotiators. The meeting is not expected to include any European leaders, according to US and European officials. However, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will join a call Saturday with Zelensky, Trump and other European leaders, a commission spokesperson told Reuters. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/26/europe/zelensky-trump-talks-ukraine-russia-intl
This was the year ‘The West’ died. 2026 may be even worse, writes The Telegraph. European weakness over Ukraine and overdependence on Trump has left us dangerously exposed. A bigger disaster may be on the horizon. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/12/26/2025-year-the-west-died-2026-even-worse/
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I fear that Francis Darnley is largely correct. Europe continues their weak responses and it seems to me that most of them still can’t believe that the barbarian is at the gates, despite the evidence of the war in Ukraine, and of their own eyes in their own countries and waters from damage to undersea cables, cyber attacks, and more recently drone mischief in their airspaces shutting down airports at will and lingering over their military sites.
I think that Trump is unlikely to ever restrain Putin in a significant way. Even if he didn’t have his long standing admiration for the dictator, he still wouldn’t because he is, at bottom, a bully toward the weak and a coward toward the strong, and Trump thinks that Putin is very strong.
Darnley (and many others) are correct that Trump has upended the normal order to deliberately go back to the 19th century of hemispheric and regional hegemony. In part this is because the public and especially his base was rightly sick of seeing their sons and daughters volunteer for the American military and then be sent to fight dubious, nearly interminable wars on the other side of the planet, not to mention trillions of dollars spent. Pax Americana in the western hemisphere will probably not require much effort or American blood in comparison so it wouldn’t be repeating this mistake. It’s a Monroe Doctrine and Teddy Rosevelt’s Big Stick redux.
Unfortunately ceding to China and Russia would be extremely bad for the US, Europe and others by any reasonable analysis. But reasoned analysis is now in exceedingly short supply in the Trump administration and Congress, especially the supine and self-lobotomized Republican Party.
Given this it seems paradoxical that Trump wants to increase US military capability - including nuclear - until one recalls that it’s more for his boundless vanity than preparing for realities of 21st century warfare. See for example his recent announcement of developing a “Golden Fleet” of “Trump Class Battleships”, which cannot scale like missiles and low cost unmanned systems, yet will be dinosaurs and relatively easier targets for a world of (true) hypersonic missiles and low cost but very capable unmanned systems in the air and on the seas.
Then there is the money to be made by selling armaments to the US government and to governments around the world who will certainly need them. Trump always looks for ways to make geopolitics all about making money - in the short term.
On a better note, there are some hopeful signs that the Congress may be willing to stir itself and assert some of its power, which could help the situation, including Ukraine which is popular with Americans. The polls for Trump continue to be in the basement, the public is increasingly uncomfortable with draconian policies, he has not been able to get some Republican states to do his bidding on redistricting for the 2026 elections, and most importantly the tariffs and continuing inflation have plainly added to economic issues for the average family (and farmers), despite Trump denying it happening. All this is making Republicans and conservative Democrats very very nervous about retaining their seats in 2026. There is nothing quite like the prospect of being voted out of a posh and profitable job to motivate Congress-critters.
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Back to the subject of Ukraine for a moment, Wlad I was happy to read that you were not hurt by the Kyiv assault on the 27th. I was concerned when I saw the reports. My view is that Russia is trying an all-in, total war approach to bolster their negotiating position. It will probably work, unfortunately, since Ukraine is constrained from using high tech weapons offensively. And, I haven't seen the Europeans or Americans (of either party) even suggest changing that policy and allowing Ukraine to do anything offensively with western weapons that would strike fear into the heart of Putin.
History shows that there's no appeasing dictators who are militaristic, and appeasing in fact only makes their goals more expansionist. Uncomfortable as it may be, there won't be peace without the west taking some risks.
Here's to a better 2026.
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Hi guys! No heating, so hot water bottles goes under the blankets again. Fortunately, the temperature stays around 0C and it snows from time to time. There is electricity only for a few hours a day and we are having fun with a battery-powered radio. Kate has made her first dozen QSO and is not going to stop. Good propagation on 28 and 21 MHz makes it easy.
In my opinion, russia has no reason to stop now. It is not its residents who are having blackouts and hunting people on the streets, it is not its cities that are surrounded and suffering from bombings, it is not its president who is traveling around the world begging for money in debt.
President Donald Trump said he believes both Kyiv and Moscow want to strike a deal to end the Ukraine war and that negotiations are nearing their final stages as he hosts Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Florida resort today. Any potential peace deal would need buy-in from russian President Vladimir putin, who spoke with Trump by phone today ahead of Zelensky’s visit. Trump and putin agreed to speak again after the meeting in Florida..
Trump declined to weigh in on whether he expects a deal before the end of the year. “I don’t have deadlines,” he said. https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-zelensky-ukraine-news-12-28-25
Meanwhile, the systemic crisis in Ukraine is only spreading. Another friend of the president seems to have fled the country after several deputies were suspected of voting for bribes. https://detector.media/infospace/article/246644/2025-12-28-yuriy-yuzik-koryavchenkov-vyikhav-z-ukrainy-cherez-spravu-nabu-znua/
Poland has financed the development of its own new anti-tank missiles, but only an analogue of the Israeli Spike - Moskit, while the future of the Pirat developed jointly with Ukraine looks bleak. The situation is developing in such a way that the Ukrainian-Polish Pirat ATGM will most likely be closed and remain unfinished. https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/nevzhe_tse_kinets_ukrajinsko_polskogo_ptrk_pirat_ta_scho_tse_mozhe_znachiti_dlja_stugni_p-21277.html
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Nice that Kate has been enjoying the radio! Certainly a good pastime for the situation too.
I agree Putin has no reason of his own to stop, and likely none will be forthcoming from Washington. I fear that the only real pressure will be against Zelensky and Ukraine.
I agree with Brady that neither party is very concerned with Ukraine at the moment. I think it’s important to understand why this is to anticipate further developments. Foreign relations are the responsibility of the president, but Congress has historically often waded into the fray, so why so quiet now, especially as Ukraine is still popular?
Brady and I probably would have friendly disagreements about this, but in my opinion so much sudden turmoil has been unleashed upon the economy, domestic institutions, government agencies, and norms of law and governance that international concerns have receded in priority for both parties - but most among the Democrats. And because Trump’s grip on the Republican Party means that significant disagreement is unlikely from them, unless the critics are retiring or resigning from Congress, or willing to risk being ignominiously defeated in a primary election. As I said there are signs that all of the above may just be starting to change, but change can take a long time.
We must deal the situation as it is now, but I think it’s a proper topic to discuss a certain amount of US domestic politics in order to make sense of US actions or inactions regarding Ukraine. Along with the ineffective Europeans, at least in the short run, I fear that the net result could be very bad indeed.
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It's great to celebrate the New Year with warmth, water, and, at least partially, electricity and family! Last night there was an air raid and my friend who lives on the other side of Kyiv said there were loud explosions, but we didn't hear anything. Light frost and snow instead of mud and rain make this New Year's different from many previous ones. Kate collected her first pile-up on 28MHz today, tired but happy.
Media reports say that Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, Zaluzhny, plans to leave his post in early 2026, likely returning to Kyiv in January. https://24tv.ua/zaluzhniy-mozhe-piti-posadi-posla-ukrayini-britaniyi_n2979023
Zaluzhny's press secretary denies everything https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2025/12/29/novyna/polityka/zaluzhnoho-zaperechyly-vin-planuye-zvilnyatysya-posady-posla, but there's no smoke without fire.
In Ukraine, more than 10,000 russian soldiers have been captured since the start of the full-scale invasion. Among them, the number of foreign mercenaries is growing, reports the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/koordshtab-vpershe-nazvav-kilkist-polonenih-1767178173.html
I thought the figure should be much higher. Unfortunately, there is no understanding of how many Ukrainians are in russian captivity.
Chinese President Xi Jinping declared Taiwan's reunification with China inevitable and a historic process. He made this statement in his New Year's address, delivered the day after the conclusion of military exercises around the island. https://www.trtrussian.com/article/d56641c303c3
Perhaps russia's statements about China's support for the occupation of Taiwan should be taken literally, and I do not rule out that russia will be forced to stop in Ukraine due to the need to transfer part of its army to China as payment for previous support. This solves several issues - russia repays China's debt and solves the problem of what to do with its soldiers, China spends foreign soldiers and has no social problems at home. My condolences to the people of Taiwan. I would have left there for some better place.
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This is the statement that sums it all up for me:
"In my opinion, russia has no reason to stop now. It is not its residents who are having blackouts and hunting people on the streets, it is not its cities that are surrounded and suffering from bombings, it is not its president who is traveling around the world begging for money in debt."
So obvious to someone who is living there, but I'd bet there is not one person in a hundred living here, who is thinking that way. Maybe military personnel, but not average citizens!
Bob, as far as US politics... you can discuss US politics or anything else at will, of course. Don't worry about offending me; I do lean conservative but also recognize that others have their own opinions. I think independently and when Trump says something needlessly offensive, as he often does, I say so (perhaps not here where it's off-topic, but nevertheless... I say so). I also admit that for the most part, I agree with his goals as he tries to correct many problems that have just been kicked down the road from president to president over the years. In such a situation, mistakes are inevitable, or as my brother told me decades ago, "the only person who doesn't make mistakes is the person who doesn't try to change anything." As I've said in the past, my opinion is that US politics don't belong here, particularly just partisan talking points like "Trump loves Putin" or other such things spouted by the DNC and their cronies in the press. That is why during the Biden years, I don't think I ever complained about him here - it was just off-topic for the most part, regarding Ukraine. But again, that is just my opinion and anyone who wants to vent or say anything on any relevant topic, I can read it without fogging up.
Since it is upon us, I wish you all a very happy New Year - gosh I hope the war ends this year!!!
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Wlad, I’m happy to hear that you all are warm and well! Kate is wasting no time in filling her radio logbook under your guidance! Running her own pileup, and having only being licensed for what, perhaps two or three weeks? Outstanding!
I hadn’t considered the possible Russian troop support of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and it’s a very interesting thought. I expect that they would be used in cannon fodder roles (like the DPRK troops in Ukraine), since more complicated actions in coordination with Chinese troops would be hampered by the language barrier and differences in training.
I have thought for many years that it’s inevitable for Taiwan will be re-incorporated with China. The big question is how the process happens and how much damage and loss of life occurs. It’s complicated because China has many factories mainland run by Taiwanese companies and is reliant upon Taiwanese chips, as we are, and there are many other ties.
At what point would Zelensky be forced to resign? Is he essentially untouchable under martial law or is there a workable mechanism for the Verkhovna Rada to force him from office? And then there is the problem of whom would be a better choice?
You’ll probably read this post on January 1 local, so Best Wishes for the New Year! May you all be safe and well.
Happy New Year also to Brady and whoever else may be reading along!
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Brady, I think we probably would agree about more things than we disagree. I’m an unaffiliated voter and consider myself a centrist and an “equal opportunity” critic of both parties, as deserved for whatever “special kind of stupid” thing they do.
Of course this means that most of time it will be the one in power that is criticized but that doesn’t imply a love of all the policies of the other party. They have their own special kind of stupid.
I do tend to become sarcastic in writing about it, and undoubtedly that can sound hyper-partisan. I shall reduce that as a new year resolution.
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It's a strange feeling to wake up in a new year with the realization that you are still alive and need to continue the fight. There is a simple exercise for assessing the past - would you like to become who you were a year ago? I wouldn't. Despite everything, I have learned a lot and am ready to continue. Complete uncertainty on the one hand leaves no chance for a peaceful life, and on the other - gives more freedom in choosing what and how to do next.
It was easier for Kate to start her own path in ham radio because it was near and around her from birth. She saw and heard how I communicate with people, she helped me make antennas and solder something. So she was already completely ready to make the first QSO with her own call sign.
On the other hand, she admitted that without me she would not even know about ham radio and would not see anything attractive in it. This means that we should be a good example for others more often.
It was quiet in Kyiv, but the Odesa region and Volyn were attacked by the russians with two hundred drones and the energy there was damaged again. https://t.me/kpszsu/51312
As for Zelensky’s resignation, I don’t know what kind of reality bubble he lives in. Recently, he again stated that he is ready to leave at any moment. But he has said this before and did not leave. His legitimacy exists only in his imagination and the imagination of his supporters, from whose point of view he is doing everything right. On the other hand, until the last moment, former President Yanukovych was also confident in his legitimacy and that he was in control of the situation.
A good option for Ukraine would be a young and intelligent patriot, like Lee Kuan Yew became for Singapore. But society always chooses populists who are supported by oligarchs. So there are almost no good options for Ukraine, since its strengthening is now possible only from within, but nothing is being done for this. Corruption, incompetent management and an ineffective army remain. One could say that the army is holding on, but at the expense of what?
russia has also lost globally, but not to Ukraine and not even to the West, with which it is actually at war, but to China. On the other hand, thanks to nuclear weapons, it can remain a sovereign country for some time. At least for the current regime, there are no major threats. The middle class in russia, which is very small, has become afraid of losing what it has, while for the poor, on the contrary, things have become better - they have gained a sense of life and money - the situation is similar to Nazi Germany.
It all comes down to a war of ideologies and for the consciousness of people. It seems that dictatorial regimes work better. It also turns out that the motivation to seize something from those who have nothing is higher than the motivation to fight for property from those who have it.
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For the first time in recent years, Ukrainians are discussing a war outside of Ukraine. The US attack on Venezuela https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yqygxe41pt reminded everyone of 2022, when russia launched hundreds of missiles at Ukraine at night with the aim of changing the regime. Unlike the russians, the US immediately captured President Maduro and his wife (as for the latter, at least here, no one understands why). Time will tell how the situation will develop further, but this will certainly give Trump the opportunity to show another victory and try to distract Americans from Ukraine.
Ukraine ready to consider Donbas demilitarized zone in concession to end war. Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, tells Le Monde that the zone would require Ukrainian and russian forces to both pull back from the front line. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/12/11/ukraine-ready-to-accept-donbas-demilitarized-zone-in-concession-to-end-war_6748397_4.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com
The main news of the past few days in Ukraine was the appointment of former intelligence chief Kirill Budanov as head of the presidential office. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2k0101enyo
On January 2, the russians hit a high-rise building in the center of Kharkiv with two missiles. https://hromadske.ua/rehiony/257280-udar-po-bahatopoverkhivtsi-v-kharkovi-kilkist-postrazdalykh-zrosla-do-30?traffic_source=ukr.net
Explosions were heard in Kyiv at night, but the consequences are still unknown. Heat, water, and heating are still available.
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Now if only Trump could be so decisive to assist Ukraine.
As for Maduro’s wife: According to the NYT reporting 2 hours ago, she will be charged under US law:
[US Attorney General] "Ms. Bondi’s post on X said Mr. Maduro’s wife would also be charged, suggesting that a new indictment had been filed under seal.”
The previous paragraph in the article has background on the indictment for Maduro:
Mr. Maduro was indicted in Manhattan in 2020. With those charges pending, Secretary of State Marco Rubio referred to Mr. Maduro last year as a “fugitive from American justice". That indictment, based on an investigation by the federal Drug Enforcement Administration, accused Mr. Maduro and five others of narco-terrorism and conspiracy to import cocaine, among other charges.
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Thomas Friedman’s opinion on the way the Trump administration is working for peace in Ukraine:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/04/opinion/putin-russia-ukraine-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.B1A.4wce.pbim7hDnsg_7&smid=nytcore-ios-share
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I still don't think Trump and company are fools, I think those who comment on them are trying to attribute their ideas to them. Maybe this is some kind of motivated reasoning. My opinion is that Trump and company don't care about Ukraine's interests at all, and they are pursuing exclusively their own interests. In any case, the situation looks completely different for them than it does for me or any journalist. I am also sure that they don`t considers Ukraine as a subject or an independent state, but exclusively as a territory with resources that should belong to them.
The night was quite noisy, but in my area there were no hits. On the night of January 5, russia attacked Ukraine with 65 drones and 9 ballistic missiles. A patient died in the destruction of a hospital in Kyiv, and there is also one dead man in Fastiv. The russian attack completely cut off power to the city of Slavutych and power outages returned to Kyiv. Because of this, Kate was conducting QSOs from a battery this afternoon. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c75xw73wvvpo
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I certainly agree that most are not fools. But one doesn’t need to BE a complete fool in order to do foolish things, even for a long time, especially if guided by others or in pursuit of personal gratification.
Yes, there is a logic of parochial national interests as a large part of US action - or inaction - on Ukraine. The US 2025 National Security Policy and other documents describe that the US should follow a hemispheric influence policy and also a policy of “strength” through acquiring strategic assets and territories through force if necessary. Ukraine isn’t in the Western Hemisphere and also is in the Russian sphere (supposedly) and therefore one reason why US response under Trump to defend Ukraine has been tepid at best and supportive of Russia at worst.
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Today Maryna and Kate left, but for me it was the best two weeks of the past year. I was pleasantly surprised by Kate's interest in amateur radio and how easily she managed to conduct the QSOs. Making almost three hundred QSOs in a week is a very good result in my opinion, considering our modest setup. There was also some negativity. The russians tried to call her and jam her frequency, but she wasn't upset and simply ignored their lame attempts. What surprised me even more was that she was really interested in it. In addition to communicating on the air, she received several emails and is now waiting for the QSL card.
Her English also exceeded my expectations and we lack words to express our gratitude to Guni for this. The radio gave us the opportunity to spend wonderful hours together. I listened to her conduct the QSO and answered all the questions she had. Honestly, I did not expect that this would become another common interest in our extremely limited communication.
We all got a good distraction from the sad reality, but it seems that everything will change again soon. And the matter is not only in the unpredictability of the war, but in the fact that we simply can no longer afford to rent an apartment in Poland and Kate will have to live in a dormitory to continue her studies in Poland, although she will only be 16 years old. Maryna is going to return to Ukraine and we will have to find a guardian for Kate, at least a formal one. Kate boldly says that she will cope, although it seems to me that she does not fully understand all the difficulties. But it seems that we have no other choice and we will again act according to the circumstances.
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Im glad that your spirits were lifted by the time with Maryna and Kate.
At 16 it is indeed a big step for Kate to live in a dorm situation, even with a guardian. But she impressed me as a very intelligent and aware person so I think she will do well. Of course she still has two excellent parents to advise her!
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Thanks Bob, but we don't have anyone in Poland to be sure of proper support. But we have a few months to resolve this issue.
One of the unexpected advantages that we (at least Kate and I) received from the forced changes in 2022 is a change in our worldview. If earlier we considered other countries exclusively as places for tourism, now we feel and consider both ourselves personally and events in Ukraine on a global scale. We remain patriots of Ukraine, but this certainly affects our perception of many things both inside and outside Ukraine.
It is obvious that to assess the situation even within the country, it is necessary to take into account many factors that affect it and that are outside its borders and about which we know nothing. Given the events of the last (hundreds) of years, one can be sure of only one thing - no one cares about the weak and only strength matters. And this gives a hint - you cannot count on anyone and you need to do everything in your power to become stronger. It's like in the old joke about the bear. If a bear is chasing a group of tourists, you don't need to run away from it first, and most importantly not last. In addition, your knowledge and skills are the asset that is always with you wherever you go. But do not forget that the world is constantly changing and you need to change with it. What helped you achieve success in the past may become outdated and not help in the future. Your assessment of the situation based on previous experience may be wrong. Therefore, the main strategy for survival is constant development and flexibility, readiness for the unknown.
It is the lack of information about the real state of affairs and the intentions of the most powerful players in the world that does not allow me to relax and expect the collapse of russia, despite all its weakening, which seems to be a popular opinion among Western analysts. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/putin-ukraine-war-sink-russia
Its resources have not disappeared, its army has strengthened, its population has not significantly decreased, moreover, it is inclined to unite in the face of an external threat. Its alliances with China, India, Brazil and other countries remain strong, despite the loss of influence in South America and the Middle East. There is a saying in Ukraine - a thin person will die sooner than a fat person will lose weight. So remaining with the support of only Europe (and even then partially) makes me pessimistic about the future of Ukraine. Unless Trump's successes in Venezuela and perhaps soon in Greenland https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyg1jg8xkmo give hope that his greed for seizing the resources of other countries will create competition with russia in this issue and he will return to the resource agreement with Ukraine, establishing his power over it.
But for now over the past two weeks, there has been a significant increase in cases of shadow fleet vessels openly changing their flags to russian ones, with the number of such vessels reaching 11. https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2007437580699042235
The New York Times has followed the history of difficult relations between Ukraine and the United States over recent years. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/12/30/world/europe/ukraine-war-us-russia.html
The new head of the presidential office, Kyrylo Budanov, maintained non-public contacts with the Trump administration, while his predecessor, Andriy Yermak, tried to block them, Ukrainian media write. Budanov himself has two significant advantages in the eyes of the Americans: a realistic view of the state of affairs in the war and the fact that he is not involved in high-profile corruption scandals. As a result, negotiations with him could be conducted adequately and without reputational risks. Moreover, Budanov is almost the only one in the country who also has direct working contacts with the russians, as he communicated with them about prisoner exchanges and held separate face-to-face negotiations in the UAE. The media emphasizes that for the new head of the presidential office, the external track was one of the main reasons for agreeing to this position. "Budanov, as head of the presidential office, will actually lead the negotiations on the end of the war, guarantees from the US and partners, and other security issues from the Ukrainian side," the material says. https://uainfo.org/blognews/1767614062-budanov-pidtrimuvav-nepublichni-kontakti-z-administratsieyu.html
Following the meeting of the "Coalition of the Willing" in Paris, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a declaration of intent with the leaders of France and Great Britain to deploy a multinational military contingent in Ukraine after a ceasefire, Le Monde reports. The United States of America will also participate in this. https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/01/07/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-dit-qu-il-n-a-pas-recu-de-reponse-claire-des-europeens-sur-leur-action-en-cas-de-nouvelle-attaque-russe_6660486_3210.html#id-2753958
Ukraine must ensure that its young people can find decent jobs in their own country, and not go to Germany, Poland or France. This is something we have already discussed in Brussels,” said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/merc-zaklikav-ukrajinu-zabezpechiti-robochi-miscya-dlya-molodi-pidtrimka-nimechchini-50573760.html
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, checks are being carried out on students due to the increase in the number of men of draft age in educational institutions. Those who miss classes risk losing their student status. The postponement of mobilization also depends on this. https://24tv.ua/education/vidstrochka-vid-mobilizatsiyi-studentiv-vidrahovuyut-cherez-propuski_n2982564
It is no secret that in Ukraine there are many legal corruption schemes for evading mobilization, which the authorities are "fighting" instead of eliminating their causes. One of them is "studying" in educational institutions when someone becomes a "student" for a bribe and receives a deferment from mobilization. In order to eliminate this scheme, it is enough to exclude from the law such a basis for deferment, like many others, but for some reason this is not happening.
In 2025, the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine received approximately 6 thousand appeals regarding human rights violations by representatives of mobilization centers during mobilization activities, reported Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets. The Ombudsman stated that the actions of state authorities undermined the motivation of citizens who in 2022-2023 consciously went to serve and sought to become part of the defense forces. According to him, a system has never been built in Ukraine that could adequately offer a person a place in the Armed Forces, clearly define the conditions of service and provide appropriate financial remuneration.
Instead, according to Lubinets, a “system of coercion” was created. Dmytro Lubinets reported on cases when representatives of mobilization centers forcibly kept people in their premises for weeks without the possibility of telephone communication. “Does Ukraine benefit from this? No. Did the Armed Forces of Ukraine benefit from this? No. All the military personnel I spoke with on the front line all say that we do not need “busified” military personnel. We need motivated, trained ones. Therefore, in my opinion, the system should be overhauled as quickly as possible,” the ombudsman noted. Among the key decisions, he named the creation of an effective recruiting system and the introduction of clear financial motivation for military personnel. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/350262-za-god-v-ttsk-postupilo-okolo-6-tysyach-zhalob-lubinets-prizval-peresmotret-sistemu-mobilizatsii
He also confirmed the existence of a problem in ensuring the constitutional right of a person to professional legal assistance in mobilization centers. Lubinets called the cases of illegal physical detention, illegal seizure of personal belongings, use of physical force, and deprivation of a person's right to legal assistance shameful. https://unba.org.ua/news/11106-problemu-porushennya-prava-lyudini-na-pravnichu-dopomogu-u-tck-viznav-ombudsman.html
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The US Embassy in Ukraine warned yesterday about the preparation of a large-scale air attack and was not mistaken again. https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kyiv-ukraine-january-8-2026/
I spent almost the whole night in the corridor because from time to time the house shook strongly from the explosions nearby and the glass in the windows trembled.
A message came from Seva that a nuclear bomb had not yet fallen on them. Social networks wrote about strong explosions in Lviv and the region, where the russians attacked the gas and energy infrastructure with Oreshnik - their new ballistic missile with detachable warheads. The video shows the rapid fall of several "comets".
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cj9r2zl12nmo
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgqe9kv9xxvo
There is very little information yet about the damage caused by this missile. One of the versions of why the russians used it near the border with Poland is to show that they have a reliable nuclear weapon carrier that can be used across Europe.
As of this morning, I have no heat or water, but I have electricity, which many others do not have.
In Kyiv, a CNN reporter said that the attack began around midnight, starting with multiple drone strikes on residential buildings. Streetlights flickered before large parts of the city were plunged into darkness, as a thick fog settled over the streets and temperatures plummeted to –5 degrees Celsius (23 degrees Fahrenheit). Four people were killed and 10 others wounded in the attack, according to the city’s mayor Vitali Klitschko, who said “critical infrastructure” had also been damaged. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/08/europe/russia-ballistic-missile-strikes-ukraine-intl-hnk
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cj9r2zl12nmo
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the main direction of the strike is the Kyiv region. 18 out of 36 missiles and 226 out of 242 UAVs were shot down:
8 out of 13 ballistic Iskander-M and S-400.
10 out of 22 Kalibr cruise missiles.
0 out of 1 medium-range ballistic missile (from Kapustin Yar test site, Astrakhan region, russian Federation).
18 missiles and 16 strike UAVs were recorded at 19 locations.
russia struck the energy infrastructure on January 7, causing the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions to be almost completely without electricity.
https://24tv.ua/dnipropetrovska-zaporizka-oblasti-mayzhe-povnistyu-znestrumleni_n2984908
https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-glavnaya/communalka/u-dnipri-prolunali-vibuhi-v-rajoni-tets-u-bagatoh-rajonah-zniklo-elektropostachannya.htm
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After massive russian shelling last night, half of Kyiv's apartment buildings are currently without heat due to damaged critical infrastructure. Heat will be restored to some buildings this evening, the capital's mayor, Vitaliy Klitschko, said. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1127496-najbilsha-ataka-na-kyyiv-klychko-rozpoviv-koly-vidnovlyat-podachu-tepla-ta-vody
In the evening, my radiators stay cold, but it's not very cold in the apartment, considering it's -8C outside. Instead, after lunch, water and optimism returned.
Ukrainian troops have built a large-scale system of fortifications in Donbas to protect settlements not yet occupied by the enemy. And if such lines were in place in 2022, the situation on the ground could be radically different, but American-led peace proposals threaten to hand it to russia, writes The Economist. https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/01/07/ukraine-now-has-the-fortress-belt-it-wishes-it-had-in-2022
The European Weightlifting Federation (EWF) has stripped Poland of the rights to host the 2026 European Junior and Under-23 Championships, Przeglad Sportowy reports. "This decision was made after the host country failed to provide the necessary visa access guarantees for athletes from russia and Belarus," the EWF said in an official statement.
Poland was categorically against allowing representatives of russia and Belarus to enter its territory - the Poles do not want to see them in their country due to the invasion of the russian army in Ukraine.
Poland has already suffered from the European Weightlifting Federation because of its position towards russians and Belarusians. In 2024, the EWF stripped the country of the right to host the European Under-15 and Under-17 Championships. Then the right to the tournaments went to Spain. This year, Poland will be replaced by Albania. https://przegladsportowy.onet.pl/podnoszenie-ciezarow/polska-traci-mistrzostwa-europy-wszystko-przez-rosje-decyzja-zapadla/v6l7bm8?fbclid=IwY2xjawPMb_dleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFwc0xNNHhYbzFOQ2tjM3dic3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHuiBk9JjxKP2J4stDxwR_lYj3XvgLVzWatNl_i68wRjdzpP-ACvsllttIi5O_aem_CT4WEAvWSG6-uetA3hkzDw
Germany is taking measures to reduce the migration flow in 2026 and is calling on Ukraine to change its legislation to make it more difficult for young men to leave for the European Union, German Foreign Minister Alexander Dobrindt said in an interview with Deutsche Welle. https://glavcom.ua/world/world-politics/berlin-zaklikaje-kijiv-zminiti-zakonodavstvo-shchob-skorotiti-vidtik-ukrajinskikh-cholovikiv-do-jes-1096980.html
There is an opinion that support for Ukraine will last as long as Europe needs to prepare for defense against russia and will close the borders with Ukraine as soon as it is no longer needed.
The Ternopil Mobilization Center has launched an investigation into a video of their serviceman threatening a civilian. https://censor.net/ua/n3594466
In the Mykolaiv region, police have opened criminal proceedings following a complaint from a 40-year-old man who claims he was beaten and held for almost two weeks at a local mobilization center. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/350376-v-nikolaevskoy-oblasti-muzhchina-zayavil-ob-izbienii-i-dvukhnedelnom-soderzhanii-v-ttsk-politsiya-otkryla-delo
I can't help but draw an analogy with a case that recently occurred in the USA where tensions flare after deadly ICE shooting in Minneapolis. https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/minneapolis-ice-shooting-immigration-crackdown-01-09-26
I also remembered the Civil War, a 2024 dystopian action thriller film https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_War_(film)
In my opinion, when illiterate and uncultured people gain the power to persecute other people and use force/weapons against them under the guise of protecting national interests, it will not lead to anything good. This may not be enough for a civil war, but it will in any case reduce the attractiveness and effectiveness of such a society and leads to its split.
Meanwhile, the world's attention is focused on events in Iran, where protests against the regime are developing. Iranians have had their internet shut down, but I'm sure the protest organizers are being provided with starlinks and other necessary support. Hard times are coming in yet another resource-cursed country. https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-protests-01-09-26
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Everyone has been watching the power outage in Berlin caused by a leftwing enviro-nut group, and how much suffering it has caused. Then I think of how it must be to have dealt with this and worse things for the past almost four years! Our prayers are with you and your family, Wlad.
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In any case, all the difficulties behind the front line are in no way comparable to what the soldiers are having to endure in the trenches. I consider it a miracle that the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people have managed to resist the russians for four years despite the ineffective and unprofessional work of the authorities, corruption, etc.
As it turned out, I was lucky that the heat and water were restored in my house, and the electricity was not turned off all day. In other districts of Kyiv, there is something missing, and some people have nothing at all for the second day. The generator in the supermarket did not work today and people without cash were unable to buy anything. What will happen to the products is also unknown. I bought some more canned food and water.
It seems that this time the missile attack caused more damage and each time it will only get worse, and this is only the beginning of January. The mayor of Kyiv called on the residents of the capital to go to other places, but did not say where.
The governor of russia's Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, said on Saturday that 600,000 residents were without electricity, heating and water after a Ukrainian missile strike. Belgorod region, which adjoins Ukraine's Kharkiv region and had a pre-war population of 1.5 million, has come under regular attack from Kyiv's forces since russia ordered tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/governor-russias-belgorod-region-says-600000-without-power-heat-or-water-after-2026-01-10/
Ukrainian drone also hit house in Voronezh, russia. https://www.stroimdom.com.ua/uploads/monthly_2026_01/1878062819_.mp4.a4d80d40e0c1f12667cb2fd39a54df08.mp4
This should somehow affect the russians, but in my opinion these attacks are too few and they started too late.
Ukraine and the United States are planning to sign a “prosperity” deal to rebuild the country at a gathering of world leaders in Davos. Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump are heading to the Swiss mountain resort, where they are expected to meet and finalise the agreement, Western officials have told The Telegraph. The Ukrainian president had hoped to travel to the White House next week to conclude both the economic prosperity plan and a deal on post-war security guarantees. But his European backers in the “coalition of the willing” advised against the trip, and instead suggested the World Economic Forum as a more suitable alternative at which to meet Mr Trump. The prosperity plan is aimed at bringing in around $800bn (£600bn) over a decade to rebuild Ukraine and kick-start its economy, Ukrainian officials say. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/01/09/us-ukraine-sign-800bn-reconstruction-deal-trump-zelensky/
Corruption in the system of mobilization centers, as well as cases of unauthorized abandonment of units in the army, negatively affect the defense capability of Ukraine, said the newly appointed head of the President's Office, Kyrylo Budanov. "Abuse of official duties and undermining of military discipline are unacceptable. We are studying the problems of these issues and preparing clear and effective solutions," Budanov said. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/budanov-anonsuvav-kroki-shchodo-borotbi-koruptsieyu-1768046299.html
Well, let's see what these solutions will be and whether the causes of these problems will be eliminated or they will blame the evaders for everything again and introduce even greater restrictions.
The federal agent who shot and killed a driver in Minneapolis is an Iraq War veteran who has served for nearly two decades in the Border Patrol and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, according to records obtained Thursday by The Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-ice-shooting-immigration-842b1d92cb93f2326171f139686e8b0f
https://www.wbur.org/news/2026/01/09/johnathan-ross-ice-killing-renee-good-minneapolis-background
Again, I draw an analogy with Ukraine and consider it a mistake to send former military personnel with PTSD to catch people.
The Republican member of the US House of Representatives, Anna Paulina Luna, said that she received a letter from "members of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, as well as members of the government" - Oleksandr Dubinsky, Artem Dmytruk, and Oleksandr Kunytsky - which allegedly stated that the number of political prisoners in Ukraine had exceeded 42 thousand, and 400 thousand men who refused to go to war were "subject to criminal prosecution." So Luna warned that she would appeal to the Vatican and the State Department because of our country's "persecution of Ukrainian Orthodox Christians." https://x.com/RepLuna/status/2009479927893049430
We have over 30,000 registered religious organizations, many of which cannot operate in russia. Only the one with ties to Moscow speaks about persecutions. In the entire Ukrainian penitentiary system, there are around 34,600 inmates. There are no political prisoners, Stefanishyna writes. https://x.com/StefanishynaO/status/2009709204081139954
It is interesting that the indicated deputies were elected to parliament in the pro-government party "Servant of the People", but then their relationship deteriorated and they are persecuted by the authorities. I do not know what relation the Vatican has to Ukrainian Orthodox churches, but apparently they meant cases of conviction of believers who refused to serve due to religious beliefs. As for political prisoners, my colleagues lawyers who deal with criminal cases also told me that many detainees consider themselves political prisoners, but there is no such term in Ukrainian legislation and this can be manipulated.
In any case, such posts do not improve the reputation of Ukraine. As well as an interview, for example, with the Deputy Prime Minister for Recovery - Minister of Community Development Oleksiy Kuleba, who skillfully shifts responsibility onto everyone else, not answering uncomfortable questions and denying even his own words from previous interviews. https://epravda.com.ua/interview/kuleba-pro-zahist-energetiki-hto-vidpovidaye-ta-logika-vidbudovi-pid-chas-viyni-816214/
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The air temperature at night drops to almost -20C, and although I have heat, water, and electricity, my blood pressure is jumping and my heart is aching. Sergiy UT3UFD has had no heat at home for four days now, and electricity is intermittent. It's also cold at his work, so he warms himself at home with a gas stove, refusing to move in with me because of his plants, which will die from the cold without him. Moreover, his banana has sprouted a baby for the first time in many years, and the young cacti he grew from seeds have also sprouted.
Every night, air raids are repeated and explosions can be heard both in Kyiv and throughout the country. Recently, the russians have been paying special attention to the railway, which has been damaged by the blockades. Trains throughout the country are delayed or not running at all. https://ua.news/ua/war-vs-rf/rosiia-znovu-atakuvala-zaliznitsiu-v-ukrayini
There are also emergency power outages across the country. https://unn.ua/news/nichna-ataka-rf-tymchasovo-znestrumyla-dniprovshchynu-ta-zaporizhzhia-u-kyievi-ta-trokh-oblastiakh-avariini-vidkliuchennia-minenerho
On Monday, January 12, due to difficult weather conditions, temporary traffic restrictions were even introduced in Kyiv on certain electric transport routes. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/350673-u-kiyevi-cherez-skladni-pogodni-umovi-ne-khodit-elektrotransport-yaki-marshruti
russia’s shadow war with us is just starting – be ready for trouble. The head of MI6 has warned that for russia ‘the front line is everywhere’. We need to wake up to the dangers of a new wave of clandestine attacks, writes Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/russia-putin-ukraine-war-b2897569.html
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Bob, I had missed your early January message in reply to mine on political comments; my apologies. Both of us being Americans, yes I would think that we would find much to be in agreement on. Obviously I voted for Trump and you did not, but I'm sure you weren't happy with everything that Harris represented and said, just as I object to many things that Trump does and says (although on major policies, I agree with him, or I would have voted differently). Just this morning I was quite frustrated with his DOJ's legal attack on Jerome Powell, done for rather obvious reasons, as the latest example. But I would have been much more frustrated with a President Harris, I suspect. All I can say is, we don't get very good choices as voters!
Wlad, what you said about not hiring PTSD sufferers as law enforcement strikes me as being a very good point. I think the person who was shot in Minneapolis should have known that interfering with law enforcement is, by its nature, a high-risk pastime. But, seeing as how the policeman probably was traumatized by having a near-death experience with a criminal using an automobile only six months ago, in combination with his previous wartime experience, made the situation even more volatile. Setting aside who's to blame, the whole thing is a terrible tragedy.
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Hi Brady, no worries! Yeah Harris was a weak candidate playing a very weak hand from Joe hanging on to the office far too long. I do agree with some of Trumps aims, but have major problems with the way in which most of it is being pursued. It’s almost always a very “mixed bag” with any politician or administration.
Anyway, one thing I am liking right now is the interdiction of sanctioned oil in tankers especially those that Russia thought they could protect with a fishy reflagging under Russia. When it came down to it, their naval escort stood by and did nothing, it was merely more bluff and bravado from them, as usual.
But this is still aimed at Venezuela and only indirectly at our major adversaries. Trump needs to be doing the same thing to Russia’s shadow tanker fleet under the sanctions relating to the their invasion of Ukraine. He needs to get much more realistic about Putin in many ways and take more action.
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I think the person who was shot in Minneapolis should have known that interfering with law enforcement is, by its nature, a high-risk pastime. But, seeing as how the policeman probably was traumatized by having a near-death experience with a criminal using an automobile only six months ago, in combination with his previous wartime experience, made the situation even more volatile. Setting aside who's to blame, the whole thing is a terrible tragedy.
Many different factors really came together. First, the shooter was not a policeman, but an ICE employee, who has a completely different status for citizens and should not touch them at all. Second, that woman was an activist who had been getting on ICE's nerves before, and it was obvious to everyone that she was being pushy, so ICE should have called the police, not shot her. The main thing is that this woman was probably sure that the Constitution is not a simple piece of paper, and that she has certain rights. Well, it reminds me so much of Ukraine...
At night, there was another large-scale attack on the Ukrainian power system and explosions were heard in Kyiv. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1m7gmxx87lo
The situation has worsened again and many people have no heat or electricity. Electric transport is now partially out of service on the right bank of the city. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/350798-bez-tramvaev-i-trolleybusov-iz-za-problem-so-svetom-kak-ezdit-pravyy-bereg-kieva
Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said that Kyiv has a shortage of electricity even to provide critical infrastructure. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/350800-situatsiya-slozhnaya-v-kieve-defitsit-elektroenergii-dazhe-dlya-obespecheniya-kriticheskoy-infrastruktury-klichko
Problems begin with supermarkets and schools. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c9wx1rgn5zko
There is still a long way to go before the spring, and russia has received hundreds of missiles worth almost $3 billion from Iran, writes Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/iran-is-said-to-have-sent-russia-2-7-billion-worth-of-missiles
Iran’s digital blackout has now deployed military jammers, reportedly supplied by russia, to shut down access to Starlink Internet. This is a game-changer for the Plan-B connectivity frequently used by protesters and anti-regime activists when ordinary access to the internet is stopped.. https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2026/01/12/kill-switch-iran-shuts-down-starlink-internet-for-first-time/?ctpv=searchpage&streamIndex=0
The head of the British Armed Forces says he "won't deploy our armed forces [to Ukraine] if we're not happy that they're going to be safe." https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-starmer-labour-trump-lammy-vance-tankers-greenland-threats-nato-12593360?postid=10838345#liveblog-body
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine accepted the resignation of Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal, who had been in this position for six months, and did not appoint a new minister. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-shmyhal-rada-vidstavka/33646918.html
It seems that in Ukraine there is only one irreplaceable person under any circumstances. And all other changes are irrelevant, since this is more and more reminiscent of rearranging beds in a brothel, only the number of girls is gradually decreasing...
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Today I woke up again to the sound of explosions. The windows were closed because of the frost, but I could hear both the work of air defense nearby and explosions from the hit a little further away. There is almost no information in the media about the consequences and destruction except for one drone hit in a residential building. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/350845-na-oboloni-vrazheskiy-bpla-popal-v-16-etazhnyy-zhiloy-dom-klichko
https://armiya.novyny.live/ie-vluchannia-24-droniv-iak-pratsiuvala-ppo-v-ukrayini-tsiieyi-nochi-305859.html I am sure that this is not all.
Kyiv continues to suffer from the consequences of previous attacks. Residents of new high-rise buildings are especially affected, as they have no elevator, no electricity, no running water or heating due to blackouts. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgm4w1g3dggo
Still, during disasters, it is better to live in old buildings that have gas or wood heating and don't need to climb to the 20th floor.
Denys Shmyhal, a former Prime Minister, stated before the vote to appoint him as Minister of Energy that Kyiv was not prepared for power outages, referring to political opponent, Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko. https://hromadske.ua/kyyiv/257880-kyyiv-buv-nepidhotovlenyy-zovsim-shmyhal-i-svyrydenko-rozpovily-pro-sytuatsiiu-z-enerhetykoiu-u-stolytsi?traffic_source=ukr.net
The Verkhovna Rada today appointed Mykhailo Fedorov as the new Minister of Defense. The decision was supported by 277 deputies. Before that, he was the Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation, Development of Education, Science and Technology and First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, as well as one of the few associates of Zelensky who remained with him since 2019. Mykhailo Fedorov noted that the Ministry of Defense falls into his hands with a budget deficit of "minus" 300 billion, 2 million Ukrainians who are wanted (evading service) and 200 thousand deserters. "We need to solve these problems," Fedorov noted.
Mykhailo Fedorov added that today there are a large number of problems that need to be solved: a "paper" army, Soviet approaches, excessive bureaucracy and failures in providing the front. The minister also said that today it is impossible to fight with new technologies with the old organizational structure. Comprehensive changes are needed. "Our goal is to change the system: to carry out army reform, improve infrastructure on the front lines, eradicate lies and corruption, and make leadership and trust a new culture," he said. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/noviy-ministr-oboroni-ozvuchiv-kilkist-ukraintsiv-yaki-perebuvayut-v-rozshuku-ta-szch
No one knows what will change after the appointment of a person very far from the army as the new minister (if we do not take into account his strange activities related to the supply of drones), but the problems are really serious. The war that the state has declared against evaders may become a second front.
In Lviv on January 11, a man stabbed a serviceman of the mobilization center in the stomach, and today in the village of Rudno near Lviv, an unknown person fired at a mobilization center vehicle. https://censor.net/ua/n3595232
https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/350886-pod-lvovom-obstrelyali-avtomobil-ttsk-politsiya-razyskivaet-napadavshego
Interestingly, before these votes, searches were conducted and criminal prosecution was initiated against the head of one of the parliamentary factions of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine for the proposal to provide illegal benefits to deputies for voting. This is again the work of the NABU and the SAPO, and the head of the faction turned out to be Yulia Tymoshenko - one of the old-timers of Ukrainian politics, who even ran for president and was prime minister before. She is known for agreements with putin on gas supplies to Ukraine and corruption schemes. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/350864-nabu-i-sap-soobschili-lideru-fraktsii-batkivschina-yulii-timoshenko-o-podozrenii
The searches were conducted at the home of her partner, MP Serhiy Vlasenko, who stated that he considers the actions of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau to be pressure on him because of his political and public position. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/350896-sergey-vlasenko-nazval-obysk-v-ego-kabinete-nabu-popytkoy-davleniya-na-vsk
Unfortunately, I do not know any of the members of the current parliament well enough to talk to them about this, but I remember Vlasenko as a successful lawyer whom I met in the courts 20 years ago.
A friend of mine put forward a version that this is not a coincidence, but a systematic work of the US special services to establish influence over Ukrainian politicians at the highest level. He believes that the US has direct influence on the leaders of the NABU and SAPO.
The New York Times wrote on January 2 that the new head of the Presidential Office, Kyrylo Budanov, has a strong relationship with the United States, which could be important in Ukraine’s peace negotiations with the Trump administration. He was trained as part of a C.I.A.-backed program, and after he was injured fighting in eastern Ukraine, he received treatment at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Maryland. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/02/world/europe/zelensky-budanov-ukraine-chief-of-staff-yermak.html?searchResultPosition=1
Also today, the Verkhovna Rada extended martial law in Ukraine for the 18th time for another 90 days. Such restrictions will be in effect from February 3, 2026, to May 4. https://news.novyny.live/rada-prodovzhila-voiennii-stan-v-ukrayini-305672.html
Yesterday, the Verkhovna Rada dismissed General Vasyl Malyuk from the post of head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). I have heard conflicting reviews about this person, but it is he who is associated with effective military operations on the territory of russia, although it is not clear why this service, whose task is counterintelligence on the territory of Ukraine, is engaged in this. https://suspilne.media/1212494-rada-pidtrimala-zvilnenna-maluka-z-posadi-golovi-sbu/
Deputies are also invited to amend the Criminal Code of Ukraine and establish criminal liability for public calls or public incitement to violence against state or public figures. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/350860-za-ugrozy-chinovnikam-v-internete-mogut-lishit-svobody-do-10-let-zakonoproekt
Also on the agenda is such an extremely important issue for a country at war as the creation of a legal glossary and the introduction of a national font for laws and state documents. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/350848-natsionalnyy-shrift-dlya-zakonov-i-gosdokumentov-i-pravovoy-glossariy-chto-izmenyat-v-zakonodatelstve
Meanwhile, a russian reconnaissance drone is flying freely over Kyiv, which means preparations for another air attack...
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The change in weather and sleepless nights have worsened my condition again. Yesterday I had to take additional medication to lower my blood pressure. Air attacks are repeated every day and people say that the russians are now attacking electrical substations in small towns, which can be destroyed by 2-3 drones.
A week after the last major shelling, it turned out that businesses no longer use generators. Supermarkets simply close when there is no electricity, and even McDonald's, which used to be a place where you could warm up and charge your phones, closes.
A family of three died in Kyiv from carbon monoxide poisoning. The tragedy was caused by a generator in an apartment. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/350923-u-desnyanskomu-rayoni-kiyeva-simya-zaginula-cherez-robotu-generatora-v-kvartiri-foto
In Lviv, two women were caught on surveillance cameras clearing snow near the Bandera monument when a drone hit a nearby playground. One of them even fell from the blast wave, but they continued their work. https://rubryka.com/2026/01/15/upav-na-dytyachyj-majdanchyk/
Also disgusting videos regularly appear where several young men in masks grab people on the streets. https://www.facebook.com/reel/776422614770559
By the way, my friend drew attention to the change in the repertoire of local radio stations. If previously they broadcast sad or heroic songs about the war and fighters, sung by men, now they have been replaced by positive songs performed by women about the imminent peace and the return to Ukraine from abroad. It seems that a reflashing of the citizens' brains has begun.
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Sorry you are feeling worse. I hope the medications will help.
The one person in a position to stop Putin immediately if he chose to, the President of the United States, said (unsurprisingly to me) that Putin wants peace and is ready for peace but that the problem is Zelensky.
One of many references https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-trump-zelensky-putin-ukraine-russia-war-peace-deal/
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The one person in a position to stop Putin immediately if he chose to, the President of the United States, said (unsurprisingly to me) that Putin wants peace and is ready for peace but that the problem is Zelensky.
One of many references https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-trump-zelensky-putin-ukraine-russia-war-peace-deal/
This is what I've been saying for a long time. Whatever Zelensky does or says, for Trump it's personal and Zelensky is the biggest problem for Ukraine because of it. Although of course not only because of this. The point is not who caused more harm to Ukraine - the russians or the regime, but that it was this regime that contributed to the fact that the russians caused so much harm to Ukraine.
Young marketers joke on LinkedIn that their dream is to repeat the success of a guy who went from being a social media marketer to becoming the Minister of Defense in 10 years.
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Yes, you and me both. It started when Zelensky didn’t do his bidding regarding Hunter Biden.
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They laughed when the presidents in the USA changed, but the same putin remained. Someone joined the club of leaders who end badly ...
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I don’t quite understand your meaning.
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I don’t quite understand your meaning.
There was a lot of talk about the fact that presidents in democratic countries change, while people like putin or North Korean leaders remain in power until death. Among other things, there were jokes that in 25 years, six presidents have changed in Ukraine, and in russia, it's still the same putin. But it seems that something went wrong in Ukraine too...
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Troops and vessels from European Nato allies arrive in Greenland
https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c0q4lplxzzlo
putin and Xi could only dream of this!
The Dutch cabinet has decided to send a single naval officer to Greenland as part of preparations for Nato exercises on the Arctic island, foreign minister David van Weel said on social media on Thursday. https://www.dutchnews.nl/2026/01/dutch-to-decide-this-week-about-sending-troops-to-greenland/
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Ah, thanks for the explanation. Yes, too many “lifers” (and wannabes) in office.
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I guess I'm lucky to have heating, water, and almost always electricity. Sergiy UT3UFD has been without heating for 10 days now, and the snow that has frozen on his windows inside is not melting. The air temperature in his apartment rises to +17C only when he lights a camping stove, but from the smoke and cold he already looks as bad as his banana and other plants, which is why he actually refuses to come to my place, even to spend the night in the warmth. Also, maintaining heat in this way every day is quite expensive. He says that the burning gas in the pipes of his stove in the kitchen immediately gives him a headache. At least the pipes in his house didn't burst like in some other houses. The huge icicles from water that leaked and froze from someone's balconies in high-rise buildings look terrible. Apparently such apartments are no longer suitable for living at all.
There have been no flights arriving in Kyiv in recent days, but I still sleep poorly and feel unwell.
russia is considering the possibility of strikes on nuclear power plant substations to force Ukraine to sign surrender demands to end the war, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense reports. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-rosiya-hur-ataky-aes/33652531.html
Meanwhile, russia is using Starlink satellite communications to control its drones, which increases the threat to Ukraine. https://internetua.com/rosiya-vpershe-keruvala-bm-35-cserez-starlink-csomu-ce-nebezpecsno-dlya-ukrayini?utm_source=ukrnet_news
The European Commission presented a plan to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion loan on January 14, which was agreed at a summit in mid-December. According to the plan, €30 billion will go to budget support and €60 billion to Kyiv's defense needs. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_90
Earlier, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko reported that by 2026, Ukraine needs more than $45 billion in additional funding from international partners. https://rayon.in.ua/news/854061-verkhovna-rada-ukhvalila-byudzhet-na-2026-rik
The UK has dispatched a military officer to Greenland, aligning with Denmark's intensified military presence across the Arctic and High North. The deployment follows repeated calls by US President Donald Trump for the United States to assume control of the territory. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greenland-trump-denmark-uk-military-b2900863.html
France has already sent 15 soldiers and Germany 13. Some countries have even sent one soldier each. Will NATO's reaction to russia's invasion of the Baltics be the same?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/15/european-troops-arrive-in-greenland-as-talks-with-us-hit-wall-over-future
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0ydjvxpejo
On Sunday, January 18, a group of 15 German military personnel led by Rear Admiral Stefan Pauli unexpectedly left Greenland and flew out of the island's capital, Nuuk, Bild reported. https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/groenland-hier-macht-die-bundeswehr-heimlich-den-abflug-696cc1784bea5ecfebee9d64
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I’m very concerned about Sergiy, constant cold is bad enough but CO poisoning is insidious and very dangerous. Even at sub-lethal levels, long term exposure can cause serious heart and brain damage.
I hope his normal heat will be restored soon.
There are catalytic gas heaters that emit very little CO, is there any practical way to acquire one there?
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I told him all about it, but some people behave like stubborn little children. Since I even left the right to my own children to make decisions and be responsible for them on their own, I don't think it's necessary to act differently with other people's)
Yesterday my friend returned to Kyiv and told me that every time she comes, there is heavy shelling. She was not mistaken. I woke up to a loud explosion nearby, then the sounds of powerful air defense and the specific sounds of ballistic missile hits, which made the house shake. The night sky was clear and I saw that smoke was no longer rising from the pipes of my power plant. Soon the heating was turned off, and in the morning there was no water either. I still have electricity, but it seems that the energy sector has suffered again. It is good that the sun is shining and it is only -11C outside.
This winter has once again proven the importance of considering the orientation of the house and its windows. All of Sergiy's windows face north, while mine face southeast, which allows the apartment to be heated at least half of the day solely by the sun. I recently read an interesting article about this - An Elizabethan mansion's secrets for staying warm https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20260116-an-elizabethan-mansions-secrets-for-staying-warm
The BBC wrote this morning that on the night of January 20, russia launched a massive missile and drone strike on Kyiv and a number of other cities in Ukraine - Rivne, Vinnytsia, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, Odesa and many other important energy centers. Throughout the night, the russians struck with ballistic missiles and shaheds, and in the morning the russians attacked with cruise missiles from Tu-95MS bombers.
According to the Air Force, Kyiv was attacked with drones and ballistic missiles during the night, the Kyiv authorities reported the destruction and disappearance of heating, water and electricity - mainly on the left bank of the capital. Half of the city's houses were again without heat in the severe frost. There will be problems with the operation of the metro. One injured person is in the hospital. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c8x9dlly482o
Emergency power outages have been imposed in several regions of Ukraine due to the consequences of russian attacks on the power system. Energy workers are working to restore stable power supply, Ukrenergo reports. https://unn.ua/news/nyzku-oblastei-perevely-na-avariini-vidkliuchennia-svitla-ukrenerho
Kyiv residents are advised to close their windows and stay indoors due to the smoke. https://bigkyiv.com.ua/kyyanam-radyat-zachynyty-vikna-i-ne-vyhodyty-na-vulyczyu-cherez-nichnu-vorozhu-ataku-utvoryvsya-smog/
This is certainly timely and appropriate advice, given that many people do not have heating and their windows have long been not only closed, but also covered with something to preserve heat.
But not a single day passed without air attacks. On the night of January 19, explosions thundered in Odesa. As a result of the attack, residential buildings and infrastructure were damaged. https://glavred.net/ukraine/v-odesse-progremela-seriya-vzryvov-povrezhdeny-zhilye-doma-i-infrastruktura-10733435.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
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The U.S. president’s comments have upended the World Economic Forum, pushing Ukraine aside and fueling fresh anxiety about transatlantic ties, writes Politico. Instead of rolling up to a cozy gathering to discuss the economy and strike deals, delegates have arrived at a conference roiled by a transatlantic crisis that threatens to undermine NATO and the Western order that has kept Europe safe since the end of World War II. https://www.politico.eu/article/trumps-greenland-threats-steal-the-spotlight-in-davos/
Judging by what I hear from friends in Europe and read on social media, they are finally really concerned about what is happening, and even more so about what is not being done. It seems that the moment when it was possible to solve the problem of the russians has already been missed, and their existence and policy can no longer be changed, so now everyone will have to change what they can change, namely - themselves. And this applies not only to Ukraine. Ukrainians should ask themselves why they allow incompetent authorities to continue destroying the country, and Europeans can ask themselves why, with a population that exceeds the population of the United States, and with a lot of money, they continue to lose weight on the international level and only passively watch as the United States and China continue to dominate and even russia with a miserable 150 million population (at best), backward industry and financial crisis achieves its global geopolitical goals.
On the other hand, it may be time to reconsider the terms of the social contract between governments and citizens. If you cannot build your power on force, you will have to prove the expediency of your existence. Also, the question of a national or supranational idea that will unite people is again relevant.
Germany is trying to increase its military draft to re-arm, but it is facing problems, as young people ask the question: "What do I get out of this?", writes The Wall Street Journal. In particular, Berlin has introduced a new military service - initially on a voluntary basis. 700 thousand men and women born in 2008 began to receive questionnaires about physical fitness and readiness to serve. Only men are required to answer. They must appear for a medical examination, regardless of whether they want to join the armed forces or not. Against this background, mass protests have taken place in the country, involving school-age demonstrators. Protesters ask why they should sacrifice themselves for the sake of a state that allocates a quarter of the federal budget to paying pensions to the elderly. https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/germanys-military-recruitment-drive-has-a-gen-z-problem-577d535b?mod=hp_lead_pos9
I was once told that it was easier for me in 2022 because I went through 2014 and became more prepared. But I was also 10 years older, and new illnesses had been added to old ones, and fatigue was accumulating. If you survived 6 rounds of punches, you got to know your opponent better, but you had less strength left to survive the next 6 rounds. In any case, I would prefer not to have this experience, but to live calmly.
The police are increasing the number of patrols in the context of the energy emergency, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine said in a statement. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-mvs-politsiya-patruli/33653102.html
The street shelters for heating will also be guarded by armed national guardsmen. Those who have been there say that even homeless people find it difficult to stay there, but I would like to know the number of police and other healthy armed people who receive a salary while being far from the front and doing nothing useful. I would not be surprised if their number exceeds the number of soldiers fighting at the front.
Meanwhile, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, gave an interview in which he stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are planning new counter-offensive operations, since it is impossible to achieve victory solely through defense. He is also satisfied with the work of the mobilization centers. https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/v-oboroni-peremogi-ne-zdobudesh-sirskij-anonsuvav-nastupalni-operatsii-zsu-u-2026-rotsi.htm
But for money, mobilization center employees also help draft evaders. In Ivano-Frankivsk region, the State Bureau of Investigation exposed military mobilization centers that were transporting draft evaders to Romania for money. https://dbr.gov.ua/news/na-ivano-frankivshhini-dbr-vikrilo-vijskovih-tck-yaki-za-groshi-perepravlyali-uhilyantiv-u-rumuniyu
Also, the media periodically reports on the detention or conviction of heads of mobilization centers for illegal enrichment.
Meanwhile, in 2025, the russian military-industrial complex manufactured and delivered seven Il-76MD-90A military transport aircraft. https://defence-ua.com/people_and_company/rf_v_2025_rotsi_zrobila_azh_sim_novih_il_76md_90a_ale_jim_tochno_bude_malo_dlja_planu_na_4_novi_polki-21496.html
Other new aircraft have also been built, which refutes the propaganda about russia's weakness and inability to produce weapons independently. https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war/jak_aviatsija_rf_iz_su_34_i_tu_95ms_posililas_za_majzhe_4_roki_vijni_proti_ukrajini_ta_jak_pro_tse_pishut_v_rusi-21483.html
India has unveiled a new sophisticated anti-stealth radar grid that can detect and track advanced fifth-generation stealth aircraft such as the US F-35 Lightning II, russian Su-57, and China’s J-35 stealth fighter prototypes. Stealth systems are designed with very low radar cross-section, allowing them to evade conventional radars and air defence networks. As nations race to develop fifth-generation fighters and advanced missile systems, India has also stepped up its efforts to push forth the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme while also boosting counter-stealth capabilities. https://www.wionews.com/photos/india-s-new-anti-stealth-radar-grid-can-detect-5th-gen-f-35-su-57-fighter-jets-all-about-air-defence-system-1768551519478/1768551519483
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Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga called on those who care about the world to organize fundraising to support Ukrainians in the conditions of a broken energy system. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2026/01/19/8016899/
A good initiative, but in the conditions of Ukraine I am not sure that Ukrainians will receive that help, because it is the same as helping the Iranians by transferring money to Ali Hosseini Khamenei and his government...
In the wake of a damaging corruption scandal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is increasingly reaching out to potential political rivals as the prospect of an election becomes more likely. On Thursday, Zelensky spoke with the man widely regarded as his biggest contender, former commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who’s now Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK. Earlier this week, the president also disclosed that he’d met other high-profile figures who are seen as having the potential to enter politics. Those included Serhiy Prytula, a former TV presenter whose charity donates to the armed forces, and popular nationalist activist Serhiy Sternenko. The flurry of meetings is a sign that Ukraine’s president may be maneuvering to secure his position in post-war politics, Bloomberg reports. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-17/zelenskiy-courts-potential-challengers-with-us-calling-for-vote?taid=696b4cdd9495b60001c2f943&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
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I hope your heat and water is on now, or soon will be.
I’m encouraged by the signs that Zelensky is maneuvering for a post-presidential life. However, I would expect that his political career would be finished once he is no longer president. Nobody wants reheated old fish, especially if it tasted bad when it was fresh.
Ah, yes, Trump 2.0 chaos at the World Economic Forum. Rather than delve into the myriad international and domestic issues here I will sum it up by noting that all great nations have times when they stumble badly and this is shaping up to be a historic one for the United States. However never doubt that She will recover.
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There is a belief that a person busy with survival is not too interested in politics or freedoms. And this is well confirmed by Ukraine. When you are freezing and do not know when the next time there will be electricity or water, it greatly affects the perception of reality, attitude towards it and ultimately, behavior. People become angry and scared, which further deprives them of the ability to think and common sense. What could be better conditions for manipulation?
Today my friend spoke emotionally about what Zelensky has brought the country to. Instead, I asked what she actually expected from a pro-russian actor backed by an oligarch when she voted for him? Why does she go to the dentist and not the local theater when she has a toothache? She said nothing, which was the best answer. At the same time, she doesn't want her husband or brother to go to war. Strange people...
The issue of Zelensky's support among the people is unknown to me, but I have noticed that there are regular news reports about the persecution of those he appointed to high positions due to corruption. That is, the circle of people close to him is rapidly shrinking. On the other hand, many people pay attention to the selectivity of anti-corruption agencies in who exactly and when to persecute, which indicates that they are controlled by those who determine what and when they do.
By the way, Zelensky is going to meet with Trump at the economic forum in Davos, but apparently no one expects anything from this meeting. It seems that Trump has become the black (or red) swan that Nassim Taleb wrote about, but he behaves like the pigeon from the joke. Never sit down to play chess with a pigeon - first he will scatter all the pieces, then shit on the board and fly away...
US President's special envoy Steve Witkoff said that Vladimir Putin is allegedly interested in concluding a peace agreement with Ukraine. He said this in an interview with American television channels. The US President's special envoy said that the peace plan is already more than 90% ready, and negotiations with the Kremlin leader are scheduled for January 22. https://informator.ua/uk/vitkoff-stojit-na-svoyemu-putin-hoche-uklasti-mirnu-ugodu-z-ukrajinoyu-peregovori-zavtra
French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe would not give in to bullies or be intimidated, in a scathing criticism of U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose steep tariffs if Europe does not let him take over Greenland. France, and Europe, will not "passively accept the law of the strongest," Macron said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, adding that doing otherwise would lead to their "vassalization". https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-shares-messages-frances-macron-offering-g7-meeting-after-davos-2026-01-20/
But it seems like it will remain just words again.
Meanwhile, former intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov is actively advancing politically, and some believe he has already surpassed former commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny in popularity. The newly appointed head of the Presidential Office, Kyrylo Budanov, said during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he is "cautiously optimistic" about the timing of the end of the war, russia's place in the negotiation process, and China's role in ending the war. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c9qpe38qppyo
Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said the capital was fast approaching a humanitarian crisis due to russia’s continued attacks on critical infrastructure — some 600,000 residents had fled the city in January alone, he told The Times. The head of the military administration denies this, and accusations of poor winter preparations and poor handling of problems between local and central authorities continue. https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/no-power-18c-and-russian-attacks-kyiv-faces-catastrophe-mp2dmdbsz
As a result of attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector, the infrastructure of one of the largest mobile operators, Kyivstar, is in a complete blackout in several regions. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/kiyivstar-povnomu-blekauti-kilkoh-oblastyah-1768997976.html
The Ombudsman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets stated that there was no reaction to the recorded violations of the conditions of detention of conscripts in the Bila Tserkva mobilization center. According to the Ombudsman, unsanitary conditions, a lack of proper sleeping places and basic hygiene conditions were recorded in the premises of the mobilization center. Videos with the relevant violations are being distributed on social networks. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/351406-narusheniya-v-ttsk-na-kievschine-ombudsmen-zayavil-ob-otsutstvii-reaktsii
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Power engineers are doing wonders restoring broken power systems, but many people are left without heat, water and electricity. I am lucky because the apartment is +16C, there is water and most of the time even electricity. Apparently an old house with a small number of residents does not create a big load on the network and therefore the electricity is turned off not as often as others. On the other hand, it is only -6C outside and it has snowed, which does not improve my well-being. I do not remember the last time I felt good.
russian, Ukrainian and US negotiators are heading to Abu Dhabi today for what are expected to be the first trilateral talks since russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. It comes after russia's President Vladimir putin and Donald Trump's envoys held what the Kremlin called "useful" but "very frank" talks in Moscow. At the World Economic Forum in Davos yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had reached an agreement with Trump on future US security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a deal. But he also made clear that the future status of territory in eastern Ukraine remained an unsolved issue, telling reporters: "It's all about the land". Speaking on Air Force One last night, Trump said he believed putin and Zelensky "both want to make a deal", adding "we'll find out". https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cz6yyy07wnjt
After meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Davos, Switzerland, US President Donald Trump said there’s still “a ways to go” on ending ussia’s war. After meeting a US delegation, russian leader Vladimir putin said a “long-term settlement” would not be reached without first resolving territorial issues, according to a Kremlin official. https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-administration-news-01-22-26
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“Never sit down to play chess with a pigeon - first he will scatter all the pieces, then shit on the board and fly away...”
Best description yet!
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Ukraine has condemned a fresh wave of russian strikes overnight which killed one person and injured 35 others, as talks with the US aimed at ending the war are set to resume, writes BBC today. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyr6p30054o
For me and many other people, this dry message looked much brighter. At night, I woke up to a loud explosion nearby at the same time as the sounds of an air raid siren. This was the first sign of a ballistic missile, of which even more arrived during the night. All night, flocks of drones flew over Kyiv and at least two exploded very close. The explosions of drones and missiles were interspersed with the sounds of air defense and there was no talk of sleeping. Although I was thinking mainly about not being left without heat, since there had been no electricity since yesterday. When it began to dawn and after the last explosion in the area of the nearest thermal power plant, thick black smoke rose above it, at the same time the water stopped flowing and the heating was turned off, I decided that I needed to get up and drink tea. My head and heart ached and I felt broken. Fortunately, electricity and water were restored after lunch, and the sun warmed the apartment during the day. The heating also seems to have started to return.
The spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Yuriy Ignat, called the night air strike on Kyiv unprecedented. For the first time in a long time, the russian federation used X-22 "Tsirkon" anti-ship missiles, the combat mass of which is 950 kilograms. According to him, russia used 12 such missiles on Kyiv, of which 9 were shot down. https://zn.ua/ukr/UKRAINE/povitrjani-sili-sohodnishnij-udar-po-kijevu-tse-bezpretsedentnij-vipadok.html
We must not forget that shot down missiles also explode, only in a different place. Well, the negotiations in Abu Dhabi are ongoing, so the pressure is also continuing. My friend expressed the opinion, given the composition of the delegations, among which only the military, that the political decision has already been made, and technical issues are currently being resolved. This reminds me of the negotiations, as a result of which in 2022 Zelensky ordered the Ukrainian soldiers who were defending Mariupol to leave and surrender.
In general, the energy situation is constantly deteriorating. And the point is not only that electricity is short-lived and turns on and off unpredictably, but also the voltage jumps greatly, which poses a threat to electronic household appliances. You also need to carefully check the condition of products in stores, where they can sell you frozen meat that will turn out to be rotten at home. Owners of electric cars are saddened by the significant increase in the cost of charging them.
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I’m pleased that - finally - Russian “shadow” oil tankers are being interdicted frequently, and by multiple nations.
So far, France, Estonia, Finland and the US have recently seized such vessels, while Germany merely denied entry into its waters. Germany did seize such a tanker several years ago and has been trying to sell the oil but this is tied up in their courts. The UK has been assisting with naval vessels supporting these actions and intelligence. In the last month the UK has been preparing to directly interdict shadow tankers.
The US seizures have been justified by sanctions imposed on Venezuelan oil by the US, but these tankers are also used to transport sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil. Thus these seizures reduce the number of shadow vessels available for Russian oil.
Russia attempted to thwart this by reflagging some ships in mid-voyage as Russian and escorting them with naval vessels (reportedly including an attack submarine) but that didn’t stop the boardings and seizures while the Russian navy stood by, revealing the escorts to be bluffs.
Recently the UK government has come under criticism for not taking action on 40 or so shadow tankers that passed through the English Channel. Hopefully this will cause the UK to start interdicting them.
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I actually don't know anything about it. How many tankers were seized? How many tankers are in the shadow fleet in total? What proportion of them were supplying oil to India and China?
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https://youtu.be/qh3TEv_7GYI?si=C-aoaw8aThrMVHNK (https://youtu.be/qh3TEv_7GYI?si=C-aoaw8aThrMVHNK)
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https://youtu.be/qh3TEv_7GYI?si=C-aoaw8aThrMVHNK (https://youtu.be/qh3TEv_7GYI?si=C-aoaw8aThrMVHNK)
Thanks Braden! This once again emphasizes the importance and necessity of changes in Ukraine given the changes taking place in Europe. On the other hand, the recent appointments of a marketer as the Minister of Defense, who appoints bloggers as his advisors, make me pessimistic about the future.
https://suspilne.media/1220896-fedorov-ogolosiv-so-volonter-sternenko-bude-jogo-radnikom-z-pitan-droniv/
https://suspilne.media/1222796-fedorov-priznaciv-sergia-flesa-beskrestnova-radnikom-z-tehnologicnih-napramiv-oboroni/
As does the complete chaos in the energy sector after the recent air strikes. Despite Zelensky’s threats to retaliate with strikes on Moscow, we all understand that this will never happen.
I want to quote the Ukrainian writer Les Podervianskyi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Podervianskyi who often speaks rudely but aptly:
The Poles chose Walesa, and we chose Kravchuk. And who forced us to choose Kravchuk - we had our own Walesa?! I think he was killed. If they had elected Chornovil, they would have elected a different Verkhovna Rada, of course. But this could not have happened. They could only have elected Kravchuk, and only all these f*ck*s*b*bs to the Verkhovna Rada. That's clear. Ukrainians, they are champions in such, I would say, cyclical suicide. No one can defeat Ukrainians, except Ukrainians themselves. And they have proven this all the time, throughout their history. All the time. They are stupid and irresponsible, they are like children... I am not a politician, and I can speak about my people without trying to please them.
https://www.facebook.com/poderviansky/posts/%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BD%D1%96-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%96%D1%97-%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%8E%D1%82%D1%8C-%D1%81%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%8E-%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B3%D1%96%D0%BA%D1%83-%D0%B2-91-%D0%BC%D1%83-%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%86%D1%96-%D0%BD%D0%B5-%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8-%D1%96-%D0%BD%D0%B5-%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BB%D0%B8-%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8-%D1%87%D0%BE%D1%80/1427538468743136/
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After warming to almost 0C, severe frosts are expected again next week. The weather changes are affecting me very badly, but at least I have heat, water and electricity most of the day, while many people in Kyiv have no heat and only get electricity for a few hours a day. When it's cold both at home and in the office, people start to get sick. Everyone's mood is very bad. Meanwhile, the russians continue their attacks.
A russian drone flew over Kyiv on the afternoon of 26 January without air raid alert sparks security concerns. This raises questions not only about the state of the air defenses, which did not shoot it down for several hours, but the more serious concern is that the UAV reached the city undetected, highlighting the strategic intelligence capabilities of russia. https://tsn.ua/en/amp/ukrayina/shahed-drone-flies-over-kyiv-without-air-raid-alert-sparks-security-concerns-3008282.html
On the night of January 27, russians again struck an energy facility in Odesa. As a result of the attack, large-scale destruction was recorded, and the restoration of equipment will take a long time. https://gazeta.ua/articles/economics/_nichnij-udar-rf-po-odesi-masshtabni-rujnuvannya-energetiki-remont-zajme-tizhni/1242354
russia also struck the Druzhba oil pipeline in Ukraine, which leads to Hungary and Slovakia, for the first time. For security reasons, technological processes at the critical infrastructure facility, which was attacked by the russians on the morning of January 27, were stopped. https://uatv.ua/uk/rf-zavdala-udaru-po-naftoprovodu-druzhba-shho-jde-do-ugorshhyny-ta-slovachchyny-zmi/
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/4084850-naftogaz-zupiniv-tehnologicni-procesi-na-obekti-akij-rosiani-atakuvali-na-zahodi-ukraini.html
Since this pipeline can be used in reverse to supply oil and gas from Europe to Ukraine, this puts such supplies at risk.
Tonight, russia again attacked several regions of Ukraine with drones and missiles, damaging critical infrastructure. In Kyiv, a high-rise building and several cars were damaged. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/prilit-17-poverhivku-potroshcheni-avto-z-1769581007.html
The head of the Desnyansky district state administration of Kyiv, Maksym Bakhmatov, stated that it is impossible to heat the district with generators. “We have an emergency situation, CHP-6 has stopped producing heat, and today the entire district has been without heat for the second day in a row. This is the fourth time we are pouring [heat carrier] into this system during the heating season, restarting the heating. But currently there is no heat. Currently, we have approximately 700 houses without heating,” Bakhmatov stated. https://nv.ua/ukr/kyiv/opalennya-troyeshchini-bahmatov-zayaviv-pro-vazhku-situaciya-z-teplom-50579003.html
I came across the conclusion of the Polish consulting firm Rochan Consulting, which coincides with mine - russia has the ability to completely destroy the entire infrastructure of Ukraine, but for some reason does not want to do so.
Looking at russian strikes from a linear perspective, there is little indication that Moscow intends to reduce pressure on Ukraine’s energy system during the winter of 2025–26. Given the cumulative degradation of thermal, hydro, and gas-generation capacity, each additional wave this winter will land on a progressively weaker system with diminishing redundancy and narrower margins for error. Barring an abrupt political decision in Moscow or a step-change in Ukrainian air defence and repair capacity, the most realistic outlook is a sustained, campaign-style offensive throughout the winter—intended to keep Ukraine permanently close to the edge of systemic failure rather than trigger a single, dramatic country-wide blackout event. However, from a non-linear perspective, russia has repeatedly stopped short of completely collapsing Ukraine’s power grid. The grid was close to failure in 2022, yet the tempo of Russian strikes declined. With mass Geran production, russia has the capacity to impose far higher costs on Ukraine’s energy system than it has chosen to. Since Moscow still pursues maximalist political objectives over Ukraine, it may not be in its interest to inherit a country without electricity. This could limit the overall intensity of strikes even if they continue at a steady rhythm. https://rochan-consulting.com/russian-strikes-on-ukrainian-energy-ci-trends-and-outlook/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
So it all comes down to the fact that for some it is grief and suffering, for others it is just a tool to achieve goals. And if you go to a higher level, there are many other signs that the war in Ukraine is coming to an end simply because Ukraine will not be able to continue it.
The Trump administration has indicated to Ukraine that US security guarantees are contingent on Kyiv first agreeing a peace deal that would likely involve ceding the Donbas region to russia, according to eight people familiar with talks. Should russia be given the Donbas as part of a peace deal, or capture it by force, Ukrainian officials and military analysts say it would give Moscow’s forces a launch pad to attack deeper inside Ukraine, writes The Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/8ca0d4fd-fdfd-4aa3-a3a2-90be00d55b9d
France is opposing an effort to make it easier for Ukraine to buy British Storm Shadow missiles, The Telegraph can reveal. A coalition of 11 EU capitals has proposed loosening the rules for Kyiv to use a €90bn (£78bn) loan to buy British weapons, but France wants the money to be spent within the EU. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/01/26/france-opposes-eu-plan-to-buy-british-storm-shadows-ukraine/
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has admitted that Berlin is unable to supply Ukraine with further Patriot air defense systems from its own reserves. Pistorius made the corresponding statement on Monday, January 26, at a joint press conference with Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas in Berlin.
In light of Kyiv's requests for additional air defense ammunition, Pistorius explained that Germany has already done "disproportionately" in providing Ukraine with Patriot systems, and has given "more than a third" of its own capacity for these systems. Therefore, further deliveries are now impossible, as the Bundeswehr itself is waiting for a replacement for the systems transferred to the Ukrainian side and must maintain the ability to train and maintain these systems, the minister added. https://amp.dw.com/uk/pistorius-podalsi-postavki-ukraini-nimeckih-sistem-patriot-nemozlivi/a-75668999
Other events in the world may also have an impact on the war in Ukraine. China’s highest-ranking military official below Xi Jinping has been placed under investigation for corruption, a stunning upheaval that brings down the most senior figure yet in a widening purge of Beijing’s armed forces and signifies an unprecedented consolidation of military power under the country’s leader. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/25/china-military-purge-zhang-youxia-xi/
And Ray Dalio warns that the United States is dangerously close to civil war. He may be overly cautious and pessimistic, but his analysis is based on accurate calculations and indicators that cannot be ignored. Also, history shows that people refuse to believe in the bad until the last moment. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/money-civil-international-war-minneapolis-beyondin-ray-dalio-tofee/?trackingId=AegZlD4YSjGC5QMzeFjNng%3D%3D
His conclusions can also be applied to Ukraine with predictable results. I think we will soon see where Zelensky and his team have led Ukraine. At least he appointed a diplomat as Ukraine's ambassador to Georgia, whose position had remained vacant since 2022. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/zelenskii-priznachiv-novogo-posla-ukrayini-v-gruziyi-posada-bula-vakantnoiu-z-2022-roku
The Rivne regional mobilization center denied the involvement of its representatives in the forcible detention of a driver in Rivne. The official inspection at the mobilization center was carried out after the appeal of the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, who demanded a legal assessment of the actions of all participants in the incident and verification of compliance with the law. Since police officers were also recorded on the video, a corresponding appeal was also sent to the Main Directorate of the National Police in the Rivne region. On January 18, a video appeared in Rivne showing two people in military uniform, with the participation of police officers, forcibly pulling a driver out of a car, and then dragging him along the asphalt to a minibus. https://zaxid.net/rivnenskiy_ttsk_ne_pidtverdiv_uchast_svoyih_pratsivnikiv_u_silovomu_zatrimanni_cholovika_n1628849
Meanwhile, russia is fulfilling the mobilization plan in full, even without coercion. Moreover, some regions of the Russian Federation are even exceeding it, said in an interview the first deputy head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Oleg Lugovsky. "Over the year, russia recruits about 420 thousand servicemen for contract service and about 30 thousand more for volunteer units, which are not included in the general statistics," he noted. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/4083678-oleg-lugovskij-persij-zastupnik-golovi-sluzbi-zovnisnoi-rozvidki-ukraini.html
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Dalio’s analysis is enlightening and useful as a guidepost, among others, for investing decisions and understanding political risks. However in my opinion it’s not comprehensive enough to predict political outcomes. The conditions he describes might be necessary, but are generally not sufficient to generate revolution. Viscerally felt and long held social, cultural and historical grievances are usually involved and can be just as important as economic ones, if not more so.
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He warns and directly indicates that: Stage 5 is a juncture in which one path could lead to civil war/revolution and the other could lead to peaceful and, ideally, prosperous coexistence. Obviously, the peaceful and prosperous path is the ideal path, but it is the much more difficult path to pull off. That path requires a strong leader who has the power to galvanize most people [rather than polarize them] and get them to do the difficult things to rectify the problems to make the country strong again.
It all depends on how the government responds to the crisis and whether it can make the necessary changes to the already outdated system. If it continues to make mistakes or inadequate policies, then revolution/civil war will inevitably come.
I also agree with him that there is a great deal of influence from outside forces who want to take advantage of the situation and this raises the question of the activities of hostile agents in the country. Ukraine is a good example of how this has happened and continues to happen. I would carefully check whether the ICE agents whose actions have exacerbated the escalation were recruited by russia or China. Many people in Ukraine are convinced that Trump himself is an agent of the Kremlin.
Donald Trump said it was "very dangerous" for the UK to deal with China, as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer continued his visit to Beijing to reset relations. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0keyyeyr41o
It is obvious that a new world order is being formed right now and I am very interested in what place Ukraine will occupy in it. I am very optimistic about this, given that we need to survive this winter at least. Next week at night, frosts of -25C are expected, and the calls of Zelensky and Trump for an energy truce, which, by the way, have not yet been supported in russia, are of little importance. Even if russia refrains from air strikes, the frost could finish off Ukraine's energy and utility infrastructure.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday, January 29, at a meeting with his cabinet members at the White House that he personally asked russian President Vladimir putin not to shell Ukrainian cities during the week of severe frosts. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cgm4d4zzw9po
The electricity shortage has become one of the biggest challenges for Ukrainian businesses. Metallurgical giants, building materials manufacturers, and energy-intensive enterprises have all faced large-scale downtime due to russian shelling.
The results of the European Business Association’s ad hoc survey “Impact of electricity outages on business operations” reveal that power supply disruptions complicate operations for the majority of its members (80%). Only a fifth (20%) stated that the outages had no impact on their work, underscoring the widespread effects of electricity issues.
Among the primary consequences of outages, companies most frequently cite increased production costs (61%), changes in working hours (58%), reductions in production volumes or service provision (50%), and downtime (48%). Financially, this impact is predominantly estimated as a 10–30% increase in goods/services costs, with only a portion of businesses managing to keep this figure within the 2–5% range. Most companies manage to fulfil their obligations; only 9% of the surveyed companies report that power outages have led to breaches of contract. https://eba.com.ua/en/80-opytanyh-kompanij-vidchuvayut-vplyv-vidklyuchen-elektroenergiyi-prote-bilshist-adaptuvalysya-zavdyaky-avtonomnosti/
Given my specialization in insolvency and bankruptcy, I see huge potential in my work due to the number of bankruptcies of businesses that will not survive, which will follow if the situation worsens.
Of course, these are the consequences of russian aggression, but there are also many questions for the Ukrainian authorities at all levels.
In January 2026, the electricity were turned off for 18-20 hours a day in Obukhiv, Kyiv region. A year ago, in January 2025, American donors handed over two cogeneration plants to the city. The equipment, which can produce energy and heat, has been standing unassembled all this time. This story is not unique. About half of the cogeneration plants available in the country are not yet operational. This is stated by both the Ministry of Energy and experts. At the end of January, the new Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal stated that they had counted the plants in Kyiv region and found that only a third of them were operational. International organizations have transferred 9 installations to Poltava, only one is operational. Odesa, which has long suffered from a blackout, has 13 installations from donors. At the end of 2025, two were operational. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c87r20n8rdro
But you can only blame the russians. The Dniprovsky District Court of Kyiv has found a woman innocent, whom prosecutors accused of justifying russia's armed aggression against Ukraine. As evidence, they cited her telephone conversation, in which she used the expression "to fight to the last Ukrainian." https://hromadske.ua/suspilstvo/258591-sbu-dva-misiatsi-slukhala-rozmovy-zinky-shchob-zasudyty-yiyi-za-frazu-pro-viynu-do-ostannyoho-ukrayintsia-sud-yiyi-vypravdav
Indeed, Ukraine is not russia, in which both the woman and the journalists who wrote about it would be imprisoned for this. But the very fact that the special services are wiretapping Ukrainians and persecuting them for their telephone conversations deserves attention.
The phrase "to fight to the last Ukrainian" is quite widely used in various circumstances and I became interested in its origin. It turned out that putin said this: "Who is attacking Vitkoff? These are representatives of a different point of view who want to steal money together with the Ukrainian establishment to continue fighting until the last Ukrainian. Well, I have already said publicly - in principle we are ready for this" https://www.unian.ua/world/putin-viznav-shcho-vin-gotoviy-voyuvati-do-ostannogo-ukrajincya-13209729.html
The website of the President of Ukraine also contains the following phrase "Our principle is simple: Ukraine does not start a war first, but Ukraine always stands to the last man.", which can be interpreted in different ways. https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-ukrayini-shodo-bezpekovoyi-situaciyi-v-68073
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Emergency power cuts swept across several Ukrainian cities as well as neighboring Moldova yesterday, January 31. The failure caused a cascading outage in Ukraine’s power grid, triggering automatic protection systems. Blackouts were reported in Kyiv, as well as Zhytomyr and Kharkiv regions, in the center and northeast of the country respectively. The outage cut water supplies to the Ukrainian capital, officials said, while the city’s subway system was temporarily suspended because of low voltage on the network. Moldova also experienced major power outages, including in the capital Chisinau, officials said. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/31/europe/power-outages-ukraine-moldova-intl
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c79rgrl3yejo
Due to the accident, the automation disconnected the Ukrainian nuclear power plants from the network, and they also reduced their generating capacity. This clearly demonstrated the vulnerability of the energy system, which is working at the limit. The simultaneous disappearance of electricity and water frightened people who expected a complete collapse of the Ukrainian energy system. Fortunately, by the end of the day, the supply of water and electricity was restored, but even greater frosts and possible shelling are ahead. There were various rumors about the causes of the accident, but it seems to me that it was the consequences of overloading.
The near future will show its ability to withstand not only frost, but also air attacks. Meanwhile, the president is once again blaming the partners.
An aid package with PAC-3 missiles for Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems arrived in Ukraine a day after the russian occupiers carried out a large-scale shelling of Ukraine, causing an almost complete blackout, while the arrival of this package was expected a month earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
The main need for this year is air defense – both systems and missiles. No country in Europe has such a powerful air defense as Ukraine, and still this is not enough, said Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palis. He said that during the last massive strike, Ukraine used more than 20 PAC-3 missiles, which are the only ones that can shoot down ballistic missiles. The US capacity to produce missiles per month is 55 PAC-3 units. https://lb.ua/society/2026/01/29/719404_palisa_pid_chas_vidbittya.html
Meanwhile, the authorities' mobilization efforts have clearly intensified. Police patrols and mobilization centers have been driving around the city for days looking for men, and yesterday I saw them block a major street and stop all the cars.
In Kyiv on Saturday, January 31, a mass brawl broke out on the street near the railway station involving workers of the mobilization center and police officers. A group of civilians prevented the detention of a conscript, who is called a violator of military registration. After a scuffle that began between civilians, police officers, and workers of the mobilization center, the detainee broke free. After that, workers of the mobilization center and police officers left the scene of the incident. https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/u-kyyevi-stalasia-masova-sutychka-z-pratsivnykamy-ttsk-ta-politseyskymy-shcho-vidomo-3012170.html
Meanwhile, bad news for those hoping russia is about to collapse. The russian government is lifting a ban on gasoline exports for producers to avoid overcapacity. https://biz.nv.ua/ukr/markets/rf-dostrokovo-znyala-zaboronu-na-eksport-benzinu-yaku-vveli-na-tli-ukrajinskih-atak-na-npz-50579985.html
Last year, russia began modernizing the Soviet-era Petrozavodsk garrison on the border with Finland, which had been largely abandoned throughout the 2000s. Satellite images show that large tracts of forest have been cleared, and military equipment has appeared in the area. https://yle.fi/a/74-20206164
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February 3rd russia has used a record number of ballistic missiles to target Ukraine's energy sector. The combined missile and drone strikes hit power plants and infrastructure in Kyiv and multiple locations causing "the most powerful blow" so far this year, according to private energy company DTEK. The strikes were launched as temperatures dropped to -20C (-4F) and left more than 1,000 tower blocks in the capital without heating once again and damaged a power plant in the eastern city of Kharkiv beyond repair. DTEK says some of the plants targeted were providing heating only, not electricity, which means they were exclusively for civilian use. The Geneva Convention makes clear that targeting civilian infrastructure is a potential war crime. Each time makes it harder to carry out repairs and leaves the system more fragile, and prone to blackouts. Teams of engineers have been working through the night for weeks to fix things - drafted in from all over the country and hailed as heroes. But there are not enough workers to keep up with demand. Several residential buildings were damaged in the latest attack and set on fire by falling debris as Ukraine shot down missiles and drones. Several people were injured. It also came on the day Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte was in Kyiv to meet President Zelensky and to address the national parliament. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpwng25114ro
In total, the Air Force radio-technical troops recorded 521 air attack vehicles: 4 Zircon/Onyx missiles; 32 Iskander-M/S-300 ballistic missiles; 7 Kh-22/Kh-32 cruise missiles; 28 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles; 450 Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas attack UAVs and drones. According to preliminary data, air defense shot down/suppressed 450 targets — 38 missiles and 412 drones of various types: 4 Zircon/Onyx missiles; 11 Iskander-M/S-300 ballistic missiles; 3 Kh-22/Kh-32 cruise missiles; 20 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles; 412 strike UAVs of various types. 27 missiles and 31 strike UAVs were recorded hitting 27 locations, as well as the fall of downed UAVs (fragments) at 17 locations. https://armyinform.com.ua/2026/02/03/balistyka-krylati-rakety-czyrkony-ta-udarni-bpla-detali-rosijskoyi-masovanoyi-ataky/
During this strike, russia simultaneously used a record number of ballistic missiles, which are the most difficult to shoot down. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ce9ylg00115o
The ground and buildings tremble from their hits. The electricity was immediately turned off, but the water supply remained. The afternoon was sunny and despite the severe frost and the lack of heating, the temperature in the apartment did not fall below 16C.
In Kyiv, the Darnytsky and Dniprovsky districts were left without heat supply as a result of the night attack. Emergency power outages have also been introduced there, Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko announced. https://kyiv.novyny.live/chastina-livogo-berega-kiieva-bez-svitla-i-tepla-cherez-ataku-rosiyi-309747.html
One of Kharkiv's leading CHP plants was severely damaged by a russian attack, and its restoration is currently impossible. 800 homes in the city are without heat, the metro is running with delays, and some electric transport routes have been replaced by buses. https://unn.ua/news/providna-tets-kharkova-zaznala-vazhkykh-poshkodzhen-vidnovlennia-nemozhlyve-deputat-miskrady
Sumy was also affected by air strikes. Damaged residential buildings. https://apostrophe.ua/society/accidents/vnochi-rosija-atakuvala-sumi-poshkodzheni-bahatokvartirni-budinki-rozhornuto-punkt-dopomohi.html
russia struck Kharkiv with drones and missiles on Wednesday night, February 4. Infrastructure and residential buildings were damaged, according to the city's mayor, Igor Terekhov. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/ataka-na-harkiv-rosiya-vdarila-raketami-ta-dronami-po-dvoh-rayonah-4-lyutogo-novini-harkova-50580793.html
There is also significant destruction of civilian and industrial infrastructure in Odesa. https://komersant.ua/rosiiany-masovano-atakuvaly-odesu-poshkodzheno-shkolu-dytsadok/
In Kyiv, despite several air raids during the day, there seemed to be no real attacks.
The Darnytsia thermal power plant in Kyiv, known as CHP-4, has temporarily suspended services due to the consequences of another russian attack on the capital's energy infrastructure, the operator company said. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/352548-darnitskaya-tets-v-kieve-vremenno-ostanovila-rabotu-posle-rossiyskogo-obstrela
In the morning, the temperature in the apartment dropped to +12C. I feel bad all the time and it's unlikely that anything will change until spring.
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Ukraine can become Europe's industrial partner, due to its favourable location, Europe's largest iron ore resources and the lessons of war, including how to remain competitive amid unpredictability. The pillar of Ukraine's economy is the mining and metals sector, whose weight remains significant despite four years of full-scale war. In 2021, before the 2022 invasion, it accounted for over 10% of Ukraine's GDP and one third of exports. In 2024, these stood at 7.2% and 15.4%, respectively. The war has changed approaches to management and business resilience: enduring requires adaptability, speed of decision-making and focus on internal efficiency, writes CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/brandstudio/metinvest/
Although this is just an advertising article commissioned by the Ukrainian company Metinvest, I consider it a good reminder to the world that Ukraine still has good potential for development and investment, and many companies continue to work despite the challenges. On the contrary, it means the unique competence of those who survived, and this is what my optimism and intention to develop my own business as a local legal partner for those who will come to Ukraine after the war is based on.
I am sure that sooner or later the war will end and the economy and industry will not only be restored, but will also reach a higher level. Due to the scale of destruction, instead of restoring the Soviet legacy, infrastructure and industrial solutions based on the latest technologies will inevitably be implemented.
But the question today is how to make it a reality. The head of the presidential office, Kyrylo Budanov, refused to "purge" "so as not to unbalance" the president's office - he did not dismiss the scandalous deputies and seemed to focus on the negotiation process. Perhaps this was the only reason for his appointment as head of the presidential office, which gave him the necessary political status in the peace negotiations, which have accelerated recently. https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2026/02/03/8019131/
Volodymyr Zelensky has been talking up russia’s battlefield fatalities and has asked his new defense minister to make it a priority. In December alone, more than 35,000 russian soldiers were killed or seriously wounded, Ukraine’s leader says, and the aim should be to raise the number even higher – to 50,000 per month. “Make the cost of war for russia one it cannot sustain, thereby forcing peace through strength” – this was the task set him by the president, Mykhailo Fedorov told reporters in his first briefing as Defense Minister. “Highlighting the huge numbers of russian fatalities is an indicator that Ukraine’s main strategy is attrition. But we need more than that if we are going to move the war dynamics in a better direction,” a former Ukrainian official told CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/03/europe/ukraine-strategy-kill-50000-russian-soldiers-intl
It seems that the main issue in the negotiations is russia's territorial concessions. On the one hand, giving in to russia is unacceptable, and on the other hand, it is obvious that a war of attrition is also unacceptable for Ukraine, which has a much smaller population, money, and industry. It is also impossible to ignore how both countries carry out mobilization. In russia, this is mostly a well-paid job for the marginalized, while in Ukraine it is a forced one-way ticket for those who do not want to fight. Also, almost everyone mobilized in Ukraine is a person removed from the economy. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities declare a war of attrition, but are critically dependent on its quick end, since the population's opposition to such mobilization is growing, which Moscow cannot help but understand.
The Head of the National Police of Ukraine, Ivan Vyhivskyi, reported that during 2022–2026, citizens’ resistance to the actions of territorial recruitment centers (mobilization centers) significantly increased. According to him, the number of incidents increased from five at the beginning to 351 last year. After the full-scale invasion, the police recorded 526 cases of resistance, the largest number in the Kharkiv region (59), the smallest number in the Kherson region (1).
Vyhivskyi explained that the resistance is partly due to citizens’ reluctance to mobilize. He noted that involving the police in notifying those liable for military service could negatively affect the image of the National Police. https://360ua.news/golova-naczpolicziyi-poyasnyv-yak-praczyuye-spivpraczya-z-tczk/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=golova-naczpolicziyi-poyasnyv-yak-praczyuye-spivpraczya-z-tczk
Thus, state representatives prefer to gently call "busification" (a special word that appeared in the Ukrainian language and denotes the process of beating and stuffing a detained man into a bus for the purpose of delivery to a mobilization center) "notification measures".
Of course, constant corruption scandals also negatively affect the reputation of mobilization centers. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/352404-v-kievskoy-oblasti-byvshiy-nachalnik-ttsk-zabral-8-gruzovikov-u-chastnykh-firm-yakoby-dlya-nuzhd-vsu-gbr
But it seems that the authorities have no other ideas on how to achieve an advantage at the front other than increasing mobilization, using the only resource they have - Ukrainians. It is remarkable how the dehumanization of other Ukrainians has occurred. It was enough to call them evaders and deny their right to life. At the same time, the ones hunting them are essentially the same evaders who don't consider themselves to be such. Typical Orwellian doublethink.
Even in conditions of armed conflict, the state does not receive carte blanche for arbitrariness - this is directly stated in the Constitution of Ukraine and the European Convention on Human Rights. The first convention right — the right to life — is considered a fundamental human value. It is defined as one of the most important provisions of the European Convention on Human Rights. https://unba.org.ua/publications/11282-pravo-na-zhittya-za-st-2-konvencii-obovyazok-derzhavi-zahishati-i-rozsliduvati.html
Ukraine remains a party to the European Convention on Human Rights and recognizes the jurisdiction of the ECHR. Although in times of war a state may temporarily derogate from certain obligations (Article 15 of the Convention), such a derogation is not unconditional; it does not abolish the principle of proportionality; it does not give the right to arbitrary measures.
However, when the state needed mobilization, from the point of view of government officials, everything came down to a simple formula: "There is a war - therefore, anything is possible." That is why "political expediency" often triumphs over common sense and the limits of what is permissible. This is precisely what causes dissatisfaction among the population and rejection of the methods by which the state operates. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/352399-gde-prokhodit-granitsa-mezhdu-mobilizatsiey-i-pravami-cheloveka-i-pochemu-voyna-ne-otmenyaet-konstitutsiyu
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Meanwhile, Ukraine's public debt in 2025 exceeded 9 trillion UAH or 213 billion USD, increasing by almost a third over the year, previously, it amounted to 98.4% of the forecasted GDP in 2025. At the same time, the average maturity has more than doubled, and the average cost has significantly decreased, the Ministry of Finance reported. https://unn.ua/news/ponad-98percent-vid-vvp-derzhborh-ukrainy-perevyshchyv-9-trln-hrn-minfin
Solving the problems of internally displaced persons and residents of temporarily occupied territories is one of the conditions that Ukraine must fulfill in order to gain membership in the European Union.
This is stated in the analytical report "European integration of Ukraine: new instruments and incentives to ensure the rights and opportunities of internally displaced persons and residents of the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine", Zmina reports. Including issues related to these categories of the population in the negotiation process with the EU will also contribute to attracting external assistance to solve their problems. The issue of internally displaced persons and Ukrainians under occupation is part of the fulfillment of the Copenhagen criteria — mandatory conditions for all candidate countries, on the basis of which a state’s readiness to join the EU is determined. https://zmina.ua/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/european-integration-of-ukraine_web_eng.pdf
In Ukraine, under the pretext of countering russian drones, the authorities plan to force owners to register Starlink terminals, and all unverified devices will be disconnected, Defense Minister Mikhail Fedoriv said. https://www.kyivpost.com/uk/post/69206
A key political ally of Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukraine, Vitaliy Kim, governor of the Mykolaiv Oblast region in Ukraine, has called for a peace deal which prioritises people over land. He said Ukrainians were exhausted in an interview with The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-peace-deal-trump-zelensky-vitaliy-kim-b2911965.html
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Under other circumstances, I would have enjoyed this winter. The last couple of days have been a great propagation on 21 and 28 MHz. Great winter weather here - 10C (14F) and snow. There are traffic problems in Kyiv, but the snow looks very beautiful. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/352655-kiev-zamelo-na-ulitsy-vyveli-sotni-edinits-tekhniki-video-i-foto
Unfortunately, the last couple of days my apartment has been no more than +12C (54F) because the CHP was destroyed during the last attack and thousands of apartment buildings were left without heating. The authorities say that it will take two months to restore the CHP, so we need to wait out the frost for 2-3 weeks. Next week, frosts of -20C (-4F) are expected. The main thing is that the temperature in the apartment does not drop below the freezing point of water and that the pipes do not freeze and burst. So far I have electricity most of the day. The authorities say that those who don't have heating will be given more electricity. I hope that the mass use of electric heaters will not lead to the destruction of the power grid. Although the price of electricity may deter those who cannot afford to pay for it from using electric heaters. The poor have fewer and fewer choices for how to stay warm. There is a new joke that the warmest place in Kyiv is your car. If you have it, of course.
Weather changes and cold weather have a bad effect on me and I feel bad all the time. Especially in the evening when my heart starts to hurt, which makes me go to bed early, feeling tired even though I've done almost nothing all day.
US President Donald Trump once again stated during the 74th National Prayer Breakfast that Ukraine and russia are "very close" to resolving the war and have almost reached an agreement. According to Trump, the conflict is now at a kind of finish line, although the details of the agreements were not disclosed. https://ua.news/ua/world/ukrayina-ta-rf-maizhe-domovilisia-tramp
U.S., russian and Ukrainian negotiators have come away from two days of talks in Abu Dhabi with what appeared to be only modest progress in making a deal to end the war in Ukraine, and hardly any at all on the most difficult topic: the amount of territory Moscow and Kyiv should control in the eastern Donbas area, writes The Wall Street Journal. For these negotiations, the parties prepared an exchange of prisoners - a little more than 300 soldiers from both sides. https://www.wsj.com/world/three-takeaways-from-the-ukraine-peace-talks-38fc131c
Head of the OP Kyrylo Budanov made the first statement on the results of the second round of negotiations between Ukraine, the US and russia, which took place in Abu Dhabi. "The negotiations were really constructive. I am grateful to the US and the UAE for the high-quality organization and mediation," said the head of the OP, who is a member of the Ukrainian delegation at the negotiations. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/budanov-zrobiv-pershu-zayavu-pidsumki-peregovoriv-1770295783.html
Following the productive and constructive progress towards President Trump's goal of peace in Ukraine made by Jared Kushner and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff over the past week, the U.S. and russian federation agreed today in Abu Dhabi to reestablish high level military-to-military dialogue, U.S. European Command Public Affairs announced on February 5. https://www.eucom.mil/pressrelease/44261/the-us-and-russian-federation-agreed-to-reestablish-high-level-military-to-military-dialog?fbclid=IwY2xjawPxgrpleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETF1QVYwZmZzSk5FUEhNRUxzc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHgkOlHd8a6SdO7i93m8Vhnsd804sH3l5C__ZWz8E6JmLXReJGslKk7IHIoO9_aem_j7jATR3b0wbZVrq9pZzThA
On February 5, the Special Operations Forces reported that, together with other units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, they conducted a successful comprehensive operation to destroy the Kapustin Yar military training ground in the Astrakhan region. As a result of strikes on the site from which the russia launched Oreshnik intercontinental ballistic missiles into Ukraine, two objects were hit, OSINT analysts report. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/countries/udari-po-poligonu-kapustin-yar-osint-analitiki-rozpovili-novi-detali-50581538.html
Belgorod was left without electricity, water and heating, and russians complain about significant damage. https://informator.ua/uk/byelgorod-zalishivsya-bez-svitla-vodi-ta-opalennya-rosiyani-skarzhatsya-na-znachni-ruynuvannya This border region of russia is constantly under attack, although it remains a mystery to me why this one? In any case, this does not in any way affect the continuation of the war and I do not feel any warmer that the russians are freezing there.
Meanwhile, Zelensky again made strange statements that are hard to believe.
The number of Ukrainian soldiers killed on the battlefield in the four years of war with russia is 55,000, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the figure in an interview with France 2 TV on Wednesday. Additionally, a large number of people are considered officially missing, he said. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgn2dzwd1do
The Ukrainian state plans to maintain a high level of financial support for 800 thousand servicemen even in the event of reaching a ceasefire agreement. Financial stability will be a key factor in motivating the defenders during a possible lull on the front. This statement was made by President Volodymyr Zelensky during his joint press conference with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Kyiv. https://trueua.info/news/zelenskiy-pro-finansove-zabezpechennya-800-tisyachnoi-armii-budemo-zaokhochuvati-groshima
Well, maybe if this were done now, there would be no need to catch unmotivated people on the streets.
In Odesa, during a document check, a man stabbed a military mobilization center employee and fled the scene. According to the command, a total of 272 attacks have been carried out on workers at mobilization centers since the beginning of the full-scale war. https://expres.online/podrobitsi/v-odesi-cholovik-nozhem-vdariv-viyskovogo-ttsk
In Lviv, a woman opened fire on a mobilization center bus. https://www.koroldanylo.com.ua/news/lvivianka_vidkrila_vogon_po_busu_tck_u_lvovi_zinci_zagrozuje_do_7_rokiv_tiurmi_28282
Well, in the US, an ICE agent would have killed both of them on the spot...
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says the US wants the war with russia to end by June, adding that both sides had been invited to the US for talks next week. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0y0y9z231o
This may be true, but it is not yet clear what could force the russians to do this. Instead, it is clear that they will fully exploit the favorable circumstances - Trump and the cold.
On the night of February 7, russia carried out a massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine. The main target of the attack was the energy sector in western Ukraine: the power grid, generation and distribution substations.
Zircon missiles also hit Vinnytsia, and drones attacked Kyiv and its suburbs. Air raids were heard throughout Ukraine. More than 400 drones and about 40 missiles of various types were involved in this attack. Only about half of the missiles were shot down.
There is damage in Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Rivne regions. In Lviv region, more than 6 thousand people are without water, half a million without electricity.
The russians struck substations and overhead lines of 750 kV and 330 kV — the basis of Ukraine's power grid. As a result, Ukraine's nuclear power plants were forced to reduce their generation capacity, the Ministry of Energy said, and electricity imports are also under threat. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cx2y208ez1qo
https://dailylviv.com/news/sytuatsiyi-i-pryhody/vpershe-rf-vdaryla-po-naibilshii-elektropidstantsiyi-v-ievropi-zakhidnoukrayinskii-750-146295
In the Carpathian region, the city of Burshtyn lost water and heat supplies as a result of massive combined shelling on February 7. The Burshtyn TPP, one of the largest in Ukraine, suffered serious damage and has now completely stopped operating. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/352877-burshtynskaya-tes-ostanovila-rabotu-v-rezultate-rossiyskogo-obstrela-chto-izvestno
The loss of power due to the night attack has created an additional significant electricity deficit, which is extremely difficult to compensate for, so the coming days will be difficult, the Ministry of Energy noted. Currently, residents of Kyiv and the eastern regions receive electricity only for a short period of time - for one and a half to two hours. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/352879-kievlyanam-vklyuchayut-svet-lish-na-15-2-chasa-blizhayshie-dni-budut-tyazhelymi-minenergo
People's Deputy from the "Servant of the People" faction and member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense Fedir Venislavsky reported that in Ukraine, ways to resolve conflicts related to mobilization centers and unauthorized abandonment of units are being actively worked out. According to him, the return of military personnel after unauthorized abandonment of units is taking place with priority to units in the most dangerous points of the front. In parallel, measures are being developed to resolve problems with mobilization centers and optimize mobilization in general. https://informator.ua/uk/venislavskiy-poraduvav-shcho-v-ukrajini-skoro-budut-kompleksni-rishennya-shchodo-mobilizaciji-ta-szch
In Kharkiv, a man, noticing military personnel from the mobilization center, began to run away. When they caught up with him, he pulled out a knife and injured two employees. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/352862-v-kharkove-muzhchina-napal-s-nozhom-na-voennosluzhaschikh-ttsk-emu-obyavili-podozrenie
On Friday, February 6, employees of the Rivne Regional Mobilization Center were attacked by unknown individuals who helped conscripts escape. Two vehicles with unknown citizens blocked the passage of a military vehicle and unknown individuals attacked servicemen of the mobilization center. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/zuhvaliy-napad-ttsk-rivnomu-nevidomi-vidbili-1770394482.html
On the evening of Friday, February 6, in Dnipro, three servicemen from a mobilization center beat a 55-year-old man to death. He died in hospital from head injuries. https://incident.obozrevatel.com/ukr/crime/pobili-vijskovozobovyazanogo-do-smerti-u-dnipri-politsiya-zatrimala-troh-pratsivnikiv-ttsk.htm
After his resignation, the former head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, disappeared from the information space. And although he promised that he would go to the front to prove that he was an "honest and decent person", this idea did not go further than the promises. This was learned by journalist Mykhailo Tkach, who found Yermak in the capital, which is discussed in his new investigation. The former head of the President's Office still lives in Kyiv and meets with government officials. The journalist suggests that Yermak continues to de facto head the President's Office. https://zn.ua/ukr/POLITICS/zhurnalisti-znajshli-jermaka-spojler-ne-na-fronti.html
Well, this may explain why Kyrylo Budanov, who headed the Office, did not change anything in its work.
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Despite the frost, it's sunny today and the apartment is warming up nicely. It's also an opportunity to finally air out, as the windows are usually closed and good ventilation was not provided in Soviet houses.
While the whole world is watching the Olympic Games, on the night of February 9, russia launched a massive drone attack on Ukraine. The strikes targeted Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrivsk, and Volyn regions. There were deaths, injuries, and serious damage. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c99j0lem3rlo
https://glavred.net/ukraine/nochyu-rf-bila-po-odesse-pogib-muzhchina-dva-cheloveka-postradali-10739186.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
Some Kyiv residents heard loud explosions in the south amid airstrikes over ballistic missiles. There is no information about the consequences, except for hints that something was attacked near the town of Vasylkiv, south of Kyiv. Nearby are a military airport, an oil depot, industrial facilities, and a railway junction.
The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine modestly noted that missile hits and 23 strike UAVs were recorded at 15 locations, as well as the fall of downed aircraft (fragments) at 6 locations. https://armyinform.com.ua/2026/02/09/iskandery-shahedy-italmas-podrobyczi-nichnogo-rosijskogo-obstrilu/
The Minister of Energy reported that on February 8, Ukraine attracted a historically maximum amount of electricity from abroad to stabilize the situation. https://vycherpno.ck.ua/news/8-lyutogo-rekordnyj-import-elektryky-vryatuvav-enegosystemu-ukrayiny/
Nevertheless, most of Kyiv receives very little electricity, a couple of hours a day. There is also little electricity in the east of the country - Dnipropetrsvsk and Kharkiv regions. Of course, the lack of electricity causes discomfort to people, but the main consequence is the inability of businesses and industries to operate. For example, even my friends' small bakery has stopped working for an indefinite period. Industrial equipment and machines also cannot run on generators.
And it's not just about the lack of products, but also about all those who will lose their jobs and income, and the state taxes. But it seems that the state has no problems with money. According to the open (so far) tender documentation, the police are buying another 200 new cars. https://prozorro.gov.ua/uk/contract/UA-2025-04-16-005409-a-b1
But there are many signals that confirm my paradoxical opinion that the more destruction is caused, the more it will have to be rebuilt, which will mean more investment and financing and opportunities, including for me as a lawyer, who will be able to join these processes as a local advisor. These will be the best times for those who want to buy insolvent Ukrainian businesses and their assets for a penny.
The first project to be implemented under the Ukrainian-American agreement on the creation of a reconstruction investment fund, or as it is called the subsoil agreement, will be the development of a lithium deposit in the Kirovohrad region.
In January, the Cabinet of Ministers selected the winner of the competition to invest in geological exploration work. It was the Dobra Lithium Holdings JV, LLC consortium, which was created by two companies associated with American billionaire Ronald Lauder, who is close to Donald Trump.
The subsoil agreement was at the center of political battles in Ukraine in the spring of 2025. Opponents called the agreements a "sale of the country" to the Americans, turning it into a raw material appendage. Instead, the president's team believed that providing American companies with access to subsoil would ensure the support of Ukraine by the United States. But after the Verkhovna Rada ratified the document in May by a constitutional majority, this topic faded away. A few months ago, the fund's investment advisor was appointed - consulting company Alvarez & Marsal (A&M), and DFC - the US Development Finance Corporation, close to the White House, and the Ukrainian government contributed $ 75 million to the Reconstruction Fund, writes the BBC. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cjw1y5z4n07o
Kyiv's foreign minister has said the Ukrainian and Russian leaders need to meet in person to hash out the hardest remaining issues in peace talks, and that only U.S. President Donald Trump has the power to bring about an agreement. Ukraine wants to accelerate the efforts to end the four-year-old war and capitalise on momentum in the U.S.-brokered talks before other factors come into play, such as campaigning for the U.S. Congressional mid-term elections in November, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said in an interview. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-urges-acceleration-peace-talks-says-only-trump-can-broker-deal-2026-02-08/
Surprisingly, we were previously told that only putin could stop the war.
The Polish government is seriously considering strengthening its economic presence in Ukraine. Warsaw is considering the possibility of acquiring a stake in one of Ukraine's leading state-owned banks, Polish publication Wirtualna Polska (WP) reports. https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/polska-szykuje-sie-do-przejecia-banku-w-ukrainie-7251224424077632a
Anyway, whoever waits for the end of the war will get everything. Unless, of course, they freeze to death or are stuffed into a bus and sent to the front.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó commented on the detention by Ukrainian authorities of a Hungarian who helped Ukrainians flee to Hungary on Facebook, in which he noted that the war must end as soon as possible, forced conscription must be stopped immediately! https://www.facebook.com/szijjarto.peter.official/
But Zelensky continues to demonstrate his ridiculous comedic style. "There is no slavery in Ukraine. Those people who want to leave, if they are not of mobilization age, they have the right to leave," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at a meeting with teachers and students of the Kyiv Aviation Institute. https://www.unian.ua/society/ukrajinci-za-kordonom-zelenskiy-vislovivsya-pro-vijizd-lyudey-z-ukrajini-13280259.html
Well, it's obvious that the Ukrainian authorities are well aware of the state of affairs in Ukraine, but they consider it possible to make disgusting jokes about it.
Equally strange comments from the Deputy Prime Minister for Humanitarian Policy Tetyana Berezhna, who laments that 2.5 million young people left abroad during the war: "These are colossal losses." https://www.unian.ua/society/viyna-v-ukrajini-stalo-vidomo-skilki-molodi-vijihalo-z-krajini-13274592.html
That is, this government, which itself opened the borders to them, considers those who escaped death as losses. But 100 years ago it was the opposite. Those who, after losing the national liberation struggle, managed to leave the impending catastrophe, in the history of the Renaissance of Ukrainian Statehood were called the flower of the nation, who preserved their national identity, culture, and self-awareness abroad.
This again reminded me of the opposite attitude towards those who left the occupied territories in 2014 and 2022. The former were called traitors and condemned, while the latter were supported.
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Seva came to visit for a couple of days and reminded me of 25 years ago - thin and hungry. It seems that he is looking for some advice, but for now we are just trying to restore communication, which we almost never had. The main thing is that he does not have time to do anything stupid. I try to be a good example.
Yesterday, in response to my letter with a proposal for cooperation, I unexpectedly received an offer from the Czech-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce to join their chamber. This is very inspiring, although there has been no response from the American and German chambers, where I sent similar letters, yet.
Kate is heading to Warsaw for another MUN conference. This time she is representing Laos, and her position paper on the problem of human trafficking had to be read by the whole family. We had almost nothing to add, and ChatGPT rated her work 8 out of 10.
On Wednesday, February 11, the European Parliament voted in plenary to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion loan.
The decision provides for a financial support package that includes an interest-free loan for budgetary and defense support to Ukraine for 2026-2027, as well as changes to the financing mechanism within the EU’s multiannual budget.
Of this, €30 billion will be allocated for macro-financial assistance or budget support through the Ukraine Facility. €60 billion will be allocated to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities and support the procurement of military equipment, ensuring timely access to critical defense products. https://sud.ua/uk/news/abroad/353179-evroparlament-odobril-kredit-dlya-ukrainy-v-razmere-90-milliardov-evro
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky intends on February 24 to announce plans for a presidential election and a referendum, the Financial Times said on Wednesday, but a source familiar with the matter told Reuters the timetable appeared unrealistic. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-intends-announce-election-plan-february-24-ft-reports-2026-02-11/
This information caused a contradictory reaction in Ukraine, but the very fact of the appearance of such an article is noteworthy. Let's not forget that one of the main demands of the Kremlin is a change of power in Ukraine. In my opinion, the only ones against this are the Ukrainian authorities themselves and the Ukrainians intimidated by their propaganda, but it seems to me that this is just a matter of time, which is not so much left given Trump's desire to conclude a peace agreement by the summer.
The general figures on the losses of the russian invading army in the war against Ukraine are overstated, believes the former chief of staff of "Azov" Bogdan Krotevych in an interview for Deutsche Welle. "I do not believe in the figure that we call about the losses of the russian army. I do not believe in it at all," Krotevych stressed. He is convinced that everyone who believes that the Russians can stop the war because of human losses is mistaken. In addition, he considers the task of destroying 50 thousand russian occupiers in a month to be impossible. He also has an extremely low opinion of the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army, Oleksandr Syrsky. https://gazeta.ua/articles/politics/_rosiyani-ne-zakinchatsya-krotevich-rozkritikuvav-pidhid-do-pidrahunku-vtrat/1243559
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rChZchiJV-E
I wonder how long the Commissioner for Human Rights of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Dmytro Lubinets, will be able to continue his activities? He recently stated that employees of the territorial mobilization center obstructed the work of the Ombudsman's monitoring group in Volyn. https://novyny.live/tck-uk/pratsivniki-ttsk-pereshkodzhali-monitoringovii-grupi-lubinets-310987.html
On the other hand, it seems that the taboo on criticizing the government in difficult times is no longer in effect since people saw that difficult times did not prevent the government from stealing.
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It seems I have caught a cold after all. I have been feeling unwell for a couple of days. The temperature outside is around 0C, and in the apartment around +14C, but the dampness feels worse than dry frost. Last night I didn't sleep well because of this and the loud explosions. Interestingly, Seva, who was sleeping in the next room, didn't hear anything. Instead of the joy of meeting, a difficult conversation awaited us. It seems that he will never admit that he made a mistake with returning to Ukraine and still doesn't realize what situation he found himself in. I can only analyze the situation and give advice, not all of which is easy to accept and even harder to implement. The warning that paths that seem easy lead to difficult consequences also seems to be not accepted due to lack of experience. Anyway, everything is in God's hands and I hope for His help. He quickly headed back to Lviv and only time will tell how it all ends.
The main target of the strike is the energy sector in Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro, including generation and substations. There is also damage in the Kharkiv region, Donetsk, Kyiv, and Kherson regions. https://kurs.com.ua/novost/1440669-zelenskii-o-nochnoi-atake-glavnaja-cel-anergetika-v-kieve-odesse-i-dnepre
https://kurs.com.ua/novost/1440603-desjatki-ballisticheskih-raket-i-sotni-dronov-podrobnosti-nochnoi-ataki-rf
As a result of the russian attack, consumers in Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv regions and the city of Kyiv were disconnected from electricity supply. Disruptions in heat supply to consumers in Kyiv and the Dnipro were also recorded. https://kurs.com.ua/novost/1440675-minanergo-v-kieve-i-chetireh-oblastjah-est-obestochivanija-posle-udara-rf
In Kyiv, as a result of another russian strike on February 12, CHP-6 in Troyeshchyna again stopped working, 2,600 homes in Kyiv were left without heat. Another 1,100 homes, including mine, are still without heating as a result of previous attacks. https://epravda.com.ua/energetika/u-kiyevi-znovu-zupinilasya-tec-pislya-ataki-yaka-alternativa-817864/
Due to the security situation in a number of regions of Ukraine, changes have been made to the railway transport schedule. On several routes, Ukrainian Railways has been forced to replace trains with bus transfers to ensure passenger safety. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/poyizdi-skasovuyut-y-zapuskayut-avtobusi-1770974980.html
On the night of February 13, russian troops struck energy facilities in Odesa, causing serious damage to the equipment. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/353341-v-odesse-sereznye-razrusheniya-posle-udarov-po-energetike-prodolzhaetsya-razbor-zavalov
Yesterday I won the case on appeal, which will now be re-examined by the court of first instance. Even if we achieve payment of my wife's salary arrears, part of it will be eaten up by inflation because the case has been dragging on for more than two years. If I hadn't personally handled this case, the costs of paying lawyers would have long since outlived the amount owed. This is why I am sure there are many people in Ukraine who will never achieve justice.
I came across a bunch of job advertisements at the Ministry of Finance. Specialists are needed for positions in a wide variety of areas, which are united by a salary comparable to that of a cashier in a supermarket. https://www.work.ua/jobs/by-company/2525456/#jobs
I wonder what Lee Kuan Yew would say about this and what quality and efficiency of public administration can we expect from those who agree to work for such money? But I cannot help but admit a certain systematicity. In a state headed by a comedian, in which ministers are people without specialized education and experience, it seems that a subordinate should not be smarter than his boss. But it seems that this is not only about Ukraine. It will be interesting to look at the confrontation between countries in which education is one of the priorities of state policy and those in which tolerance and ignorance are placed above common sense. I understand that the dumber the people, the easier it is to rule and brainwash them, but we also know how it all ends.
Ukraine is ready to continue fighting russia if there is no opportunity to sign a good deal to end the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/02/zelensky-trump-peace-deal-ukraine-russia/685972/
Another statement that is more powerful than all Ukrainian nuclear power plants. It seems that he really is in a different reality, which is formed for him by his environment. Syrsky is probably trying to ensure the appearance of success and from time to time tries to organize counterattacks.
The media reports that Ukrainian forces conduct local counterattacks near the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
https://24tv.ua/zsu-kontratakuyut-kordoni-zaporizkoyi-dnipropetrovskoyi-oblastey_n3008971
Someone thinks that on the contrary, Ukraine may lose the opportunity to at least somehow stop the war. Perhaps the main question is what to consider a good or bad deal. It is obvious that for a Ukrainian who survives without heat and electricity and a soldier who dies at the front, any deal that stops the war looks good. For those who will lose power and money due to the end of the war, any deal will look bad. So there is no clear answer to this question, as well as answers to the question of what will ultimately remain of Ukraine.
Ukraine's partners in the Contact Group on Defense Issues have pledged $35 billion in new military assistance to Ukraine, British Defense Secretary John Healy said at a press conference following the Contact Group meeting in Brussels. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/4090732-ramstajn-partneri-nadaut-ukraini-se-35-milardiv-oboronnoi-dopomogi.html
So the Ukrainian authorities are only required to catch a sufficient number of people. Ruslan Horbenko, a member of the parliamentary committee on national security and defense, believes that we have only one and a half years of mobile resources left. https://telegraf.ua/ukr/ukraina/5932484-vid-busifikatsii-suspilstvo-nikudi-ne-dinetsya-nardep-pro-zmini-v-bronyuvanni-aresht-rakhunkiv-i-zakhisnikiv-ukhilyantiv-v-radi
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Although Ukraine was in the spotlight at the Munich Security Conference, it is important to understand that this is only one element of a more global situation. The post-1945 world order was pronounced dead by most leaders. More specifically, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, “The world order as it has stood for decades no longer exists,” and that we are in a period “great power politics.” He made clear that freedom “is no longer a given” in this new era. French President Emmanuel Macron echoed Merz’s assessment and said that Europe’s old security structures tied to the previous world order don't exist and that Europe must prepare for war. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that we are in a “new geopolitics era” because the “old world” is gone. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c5y4893yp7no
https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/trump-administration-rubio-munich-02-14-26
Zelensky again distinguished himself by blaspheming the belly of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
"Thank you for yet another campaign speech in support of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. It will greatly help Hungarians see the situation more clearly," Orbán responded. https://x.com/PM_ViktorOrban/status/2022654600822641047
Zelensky also said that the russians attacked the production of Flamingo missiles. However, the destroyed production line has now been moved and production has resumed. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/rosiya-vdarila-virobnitstvu-flamingo-zelenskiy-1771087872.html
This probably also explains why almost nothing is heard about the use of this mythical weapon, on which billions were spent. Unfortunately, the russians manage to destroy other production facilities as well, which we will learn about much later.
A few months ago, a barrage of russian drones destroyed the main facility that produces drones for Lasar’s Group, incinerating about $35 million in equipment, Pavlo Yelizarov, the newly appointed commander of Ukraine’s air-defense forces said, including a large stockpile of weapons. https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/02/ukraine-drones-lasers-iron-dome/685944/
On the good news, heat was restored to 1,100 homes in Kyiv on February 14, Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko announced. https://rubryka.com/2026/02/15/u-kyyevi-podachu-tepla-vidnovleno-shhe-u-1100-budynkah/
Unfortunately, heat is not expected in my home until summer.
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At night it got cold again to -11C, and I still haven't had time to recover. I have a headache, cough and runny nose. Last night I went out to get some fresh air and saw that a tent and two generators had been set up in a nearby park. One of them was constantly working despite the fact that the electricity in this area had hardly been turned off for several days and it was relatively warm. There was only a man in a utility uniform (probably with a reservation from mobilization) in it and a few drunk people standing nearby. Well, that's good. The main thing is that the generators don't run out of engine life and fuel before they can really be needed. After all, the next round of negotiations involving the US, Ukraine and russia will take place on February 17-18 in Geneva. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/peregovori-zhenevi-putina-anonsuvali-obgovorennya-1771235750.html And as was the case in previous times, during which time russia is massively attacking with missiles and drones.
In war one’s ability to withstand pain is even more important than one’s ability to inflict pain. And in this case, the point is not who can tolerate pain more, Ukrainians or russians, but that it does not seem that this war causes any pain at all for ordinary russians. I do not know how much this data can be trusted, but those russians whose lives I observe for control really do not feel any consequences of the war.
russians spent almost $50 billion abroad in 2025, setting an 11-year record, The Moscow Times reports, citing data from the Central Bank of the russian Federation. https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/13/rossiyane-ustanovili-11-letnii-rekord-po-rashodam-na-poezdki-za-granitsu-a187148
The task of the authorities is to make the system work well for most of their populations. It seems that both Vladimirs are successfully coping with this and we do not see protests in either russia or Ukraine. Although I think this is more due to the fact that in both countries citizens dissatisfied with the regime will not even have time to reach the protest site and will immediately be offered to join the army.
And so far, everything is limited to spontaneous clashes. In Odesa, during an attempt to forcibly mobilize a man, a crowd prevented this, beating the mobilizers and their car. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/353542-v-odesse-gruppa-grazhdanskikh-napala-na-voennosluzhaschikh-ttsk-postradavshie-s-povrezhdeniyami-i-ozhogami-glaz
The Polish government has drawn conclusions from the Ukrainian experience and instead of clearing even already mined areas, Poland is officially leaving the Ottawa Convention and resuming mass production of anti-personnel mines. https://sud.ua/uk/news/abroad/353555-polsha-ofitsialno-vykhodit-iz-ottavskoy-konventsii-i-vozobnovlyaet-massovoe-proizvodstvo-protivopekhotnykh-min
Although it is possible that Poland is also preparing to do everything in its power to prevent its citizens from escaping it. Sarcasm of course.
The Ukrainian athlete's actions at the Olympics also caused a mixed reaction. Ukrainian skeleton athlete Vladyslav Geraskevych was disqualified before his first race at the 2026 Olympic Games after he wore a helmet with images of Ukrainian athletes killed in the war. The IOC banned him from doing so, citing Article 50 of the Olympic Charter, which imposes a "prohibition on any political, religious or racial demonstrations or propaganda at Olympic venues and elsewhere."
This was commented by the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, "Honoring the memory of the fallen Ukrainian Defenders is not a violation of any rules and deserves respect. Paying honor and respect to the fallen Defenders and innocent victims of Russian aggression is the least we can do."
He emphasized that the Olympic Games are taking place under the peaceful European sky precisely thanks to the sacrifice of Ukrainians. "It is important to tell the truth. Thank you Vladyslav Geraskevych for his principled position and courage. Sport can remain outside politics, but never outside conscience, honor and dignity. Glory to Ukraine!" - added the head of the Office.
https://aspi.com.ua/news/sport/budanov-prokomentuvav-diskvalifikaciyu-geraskevicha-na-olimpiadi-2026#gsc.tab=0
Some believe that the skeleton athlete has become the personification of the entire country – because he is Ukraine at the present moment: stubborn, principled and fatally stupid, absolutely unwise, locked in its own pain, pretentious to everyone, offended by the entire Universe, disqualified from the highest game, left in desperate tears.
And that is why it hurts so much. It is not disqualification that hurts Ukrainians so much – but our own inability to understand the world around us. We continued to hide in the helmet of memory instead of achieving victories in a wiser way.
Winning a victory and coming to the awards ceremony with a helmet would also be nice. Winning a medal for our country and showing our helmet to the world from the podium.
But this is impossible to rationally explain to a people chained to an emotional swing with a whole bunch of triggers that the world can only sympathize with. https://t.me/OstapDrozdovOfficial/5264
And some conspiracy theorists even generally believe that this is an element of propaganda aimed at making people forget about damaged property, a broken energy system, constant theft on Ukrainian blood, massively screwed-up negotiations - and so on...
Based on just this part of the opinions, you can imagine the mental and emotional state of Ukrainians.
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I had wondered how you would feel about Geraskevych‘s action Wlad, and I’m not surprised at your opinion. I had a similar reaction. It was foolish to squander the opportunity to show the world that Ukraine proudly takes its place among the nations at the Olympics despite Russia trying to extinguish it.
Heartfelt but futile demonstrations of remembrance almost dishonor the dead. People don’t take enormous risks for their country only in the hope that somebody publically memorializes them if they perish. They do it in hopes of protecting the country and their loved ones and to improve the situation. The best way to honor them is to work hard for the same goals in whatever way one can, in this case by proudly competing under the Ukrainian flag.
I hope that you feel better and that warmer weather returns soon.
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My friend from another region asked me to go to a couple of court hearings at the Court of Appeal and Cassation in Kyiv and I couldn’t refuse. Yesterday I felt better and after spending the whole day in the warm court I almost got rid of my cold. There are now several times fewer judges working than necessary, which means there are long delays and they even took a break during the air raid, so I only returned in the evening quite tired.
Today I went to the Court of Cassation, which was colder inside than outside, because the sun was outside, and it was dark inside because the windows were packed with sandbags. This tired me again and my blood pressure jumped. I had to take medication at home and lie down for a couple of hours to feel better. I noticed again how fewer people were going to court. Previously, the corridors were full of lawyers and the lists of court cases on the doors numbered dozens. Now one or two court hearing rooms are occupied and there are a maximum of a couple of dozen people in front of them.
The draft law proposes to supplement the Criminal Procedure Code of Ukraine with provisions stating that under martial law, in the event of a power outage in the court or lack of access to the Internet, the recording of the court session for the duration of such circumstances may be carried out using the court session journal, which is kept by the court session secretary and which reflects the essential moments of the case in the sequence in which they took place in the court session. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/353637-v-parlamente-pridumali-kak-reshit-problemu-fiksatsii-sudebnykh-zasedaniy-pri-otsutstvii-elektroenergii-i-interneta
This reminded me of the times when I was just starting to work and we didn’t have enough typewriters for everyone. So I was forced to write the protocols by hand. Yesterday we discussed this with the old judges and agreed that it could work now. The young girl - the secretary looked at us condemningly.
The next russia-Ukraine peace talks in Geneva again failed to produce any results, and Trump meanwhile switched to Iran. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge812y2549o
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86yjnw4x49o
But what caught my attention was that China finally openly entered the game. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga has received an invitation to visit Beijing, February 18, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry (MFA) spokesman Heorhiy Tykhyi said at a briefing. According to him, the recent meeting of the heads of the Foreign Ministries of Ukraine and China (PRC) in Munich was “productive and substantive.” The parties have moved from formalities to concrete planning of contacts, as China has real leverage over Moscow to end the war. https://uatv.ua/uk/ochilnyka-mzs-ukrayiny-zaprosyly-do-kytayu/
I consider this a significant change given the almost complete lack of public diplomatic relations between Ukraine and China before. It seems that China believes that the time has come for active participation.
The Ukrainian people would reject a peace deal that involves Ukraine unilaterally withdrawing from the eastern Donbas region and turning it over to russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios in an interview. Zelensky said it was "not fair" that President Trump kept publicly calling on Ukraine, not russia, to make concessions for peace. https://www.axios.com/2026/02/17/ukraine-russia-negotiations-zelensky-donbas
It reminds me the “Melian Dialogue”, which became a classic example of the realist approach, which claims that in international politics the decisive factors are power and interest, not morality or law. In the “History of the Peloponnesian War,” Thucydides allowed himself a fiction – a fragment in which he depicted the conflict between the Athenians and the inhabitants of the island of Melos. The arriving envoys ultimatum demanded that the Melians join the Athenian naval alliance in the war, and they, in turn, emphasized their own neutrality. The Athenians retorted: they say, both people and gods by their nature rule wherever they have the power to do so. In their logic, justice and law could only exist between equals, but where there is inequality, the weaker must always obey the stronger.
But it seems that Zelensky, along with many Ukrainians, continues to live in a fictional world of invisible pink unicorns. I do not mean the religious side of the issue, but only the inability or unwillingness to accept the reality in which international relations are determined by money and power, not romantic ideals.
I wonder how long Zelensky will be able to stay in his position? One by one, corrupt high-ranking officials from his team are being exposed by the NABU. And then Valeriy Zaluzhny gave an interview in which he accused Zelensky of the failure of the counteroffensive in 2023. https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-zaluzhnyi-zelenskyy-raid-5ff9e5e2054e0b17c10daf58d7eab63e
In fact, there are many questions for Zaluzhny as well. Why did he start talking about this only now? Why did he launch an operation that lacked resources and, accordingly, could not achieve its goals?
A lot of public attention was attracted by the statement of The Wall Street Journal journalist Boyan Panchevsky, who said in a podcast on the Ronzheimer YouTube channel that during a meeting with his closest advisers, Zelensky allegedly said about the failure of the negotiations and the need to prepare for another three years of war. Of course, the Office of the President called such statements fake, but the very fact of their appearance, even if it is really fake, has certain consequences. https://thepage.ua/ua/news/ofis-prezidenta-vidpoviv-na-zayavi-wsj-pro-plan-vijni-she-na-3-roki
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Today is sunny and I am finally warm. It seems that my cold has passed and I feel relatively well, although the weather is changing again, and the air in Kyiv is polluted. https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/kiev/1771658233-u-kievi-znovu-pogirshilas-yakist-povitrya
Kate returned from another MUN conference, which was held in Warsaw at an international school. This time she was delighted with the number of participants from different countries and said that she would also like to study at such a school. Unfortunately, we cannot afford it, but we agreed that even what is available to her is still a lot. In addition to students from different countries, the mayor of Warsaw and presidential candidate in the last elections, Rafał Trzaskowski, deputies and other politicians were invited as special guests and spoke. So this is an invaluable experience for Kate, who is very tired, but also very happy with her participation in the conference.
In a major investigation by The Guardian, journalists reconstruct how Western intelligence agencies received detailed information in advance about the Kremlin's plans to attack Ukraine, why many allies and Kyiv itself did not believe these warnings for a long time, and what conclusions the world drew from this story.
The fact that the authorities not only did not prepare for war, but on the contrary weakened the defense, has long been a well-known fact, but not everyone knows that Valerii Zaluzhny and Kyrylo Budanov were preparing to repel the russian attack secretly from Zelensky.
A small group of officers at Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, did begin quiet contingency planning in January, prompted by the US warnings and the agency’s own information, one general recalled.
The army commander-in-chief, Valerii Zaluzhny, was frustrated that Zelensky did not want to introduce martial law, which would have allowed him to reposition troops and prepare battle plans. Without official sanction, Zaluzhny did what little planning he could. In mid-January, he and his wife moved from their ground-floor apartment into his official quarters inside the general staff compound, for security reasons and so he could work longer hours. In February, another general recalled, table-top exercises were held among the army’s top commanders to plan for various invasion scenarios. These included an attack on Kyiv and even one situation that was worse than what eventually transpired, in which the russians seized a corridor along Ukraine’s western border to stop supplies coming in from allies. But without sanction from the top, these plans remained on paper only; any big movement of troops would be illegal and hard to disguise.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia?fbclid=IwY2xjawQFIPpleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETIwRVdWbUFuWmhqa3Y0NTZyc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHt7b1LmpuAViTOiaqgWt0BxXRiinrYUOOc6slJ2ke_JJxH3GVbdl8jWlXYbw_aem_iX2c7rlgkC3Gm44d4-SHKg
Although I am sure that over time we will learn many more shameful details about what really happened and caused such harm to Ukraine and significantly increased the number of victims among Ukrainians. But it seems that for some high-ranking military officials, Ukrainians remain expendable material, taken into account only based on how long they will last for combat operations.
The Commander of the National Guard of Ukraine, Brigadier General Oleksandr Pivnenko, gave an interview to BBC correspondent Jeremy Boen and said that Ukraine could wage a war for a year or two provided that its partners provide assistance. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c62dzxx2d39o
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky, in an interview with "Le Monde", believes that the russian-Ukrainian war has not reached a dead end, and the russian federation's goals for 2025 were much more ambitious than the aggressor's real achievements. He also believes that "the losses of the russian army have exceeded the level of recruitment." He did not say anything about the situation in the Ukrainian army. https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/02/21/le-general-oleksandr-syrsky-commandant-de-l-armee-ukrainienne-en-2025-les-pertes-de-l-armee-russe-ont-depasse-son-niveau-de-recrutement_6667732_3210.html
What saddens me and many Ukrainians is the realization that the Ukrainian authorities see no other options for action than to continue doing the same thing in the hope of a different result? Obviously, this is possible until the russians, Ukrainians, or the support of partners run out. Personally, I do not believe that the russians will run out before then, so the question is only when will the Ukrainians and the support of partners run out? And what will happen next? Does this mean that the destruction of Ukrainians and Ukraine must reach a stage that will make the victory of the russians inevitable? Maybe they know something that gives reason to believe that the russians will stop themselves or someone else will stop them?
Meanwhile, Hungary and Slovakia have cut off diesel supplies to Ukraine and will not resume them until Ukraine repairs the Druzhba pipeline that carried russian oil and was damaged in a russian strike. Slovakia has also threatened to cut off electricity supplies. https://index.hu/gazdasag/2026/02/18/szijjarto-peter-kormanyules-ukrajna-baratsag-koolajvezetek-villamos-energia-korlatozas/
The European Commission expects Hungary and other European Union member states to implement the political agreement reached at the level of EU leaders on December 19, 2025, and to adopt a decision to provide Ukraine with a loan of 90 billion euros for 2026-2027. Hungary has thwarted the decision, Budapest refused to vote for one of the three key documents without which the funds cannot be transferred. https://ua.news/ua/world/evrokomisiia-zaklikala-ugorshchinu-pidtrimati-kredit-dlia-ukrayini-na-90-mlrd-ievro?utm_source=ukrnet_news
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On the night and morning of February 22, russia carried out another massive missile and drone attack on the territory of Ukraine. Critical infrastructure facilities were hit. One person died as a result of the attack on the Kyiv region.
According to the Air Force, the russians used UAVs and air-launched and ground-launched missiles - 4 Zircon anti-ship missiles, 22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, 18 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 2 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 4 Kh-59/69 guided aircraft missiles and 297 attack drones.
The Air Force shot down 33 missiles and 274 drones.
The main directions of the attack were the Kyiv, Odesa, Kirovohrad and Poltava regions.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c363xxxnklxo
It was loud in Kyiv, but nothing was damaged in my area.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on February 21, the Defense Forces struck two russian border patrol ships of Project 22460 "Okhotnik" in occupied Crimea. In Yevpatoria, on the territory of the Yevpatoria Aviation Repair Plant, two Be-12 aircraft. https://suspilne.media/crimea/1246380-u-genstabi-zsu-povidomili-pro-urazenna-rosijskih-litakiv-ta-storozovih-korabliv-v-okupovanomu-krimu/
Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles hit the Votkinsky plant in russia, which produces intercontinental ballistic missiles. The defense forces also targeted the Naftogorsk gas processing plant and hit facilities in the occupied territories, including a logistics warehouse in Zaporizhia. https://24tv.ua/flamingo-atakuvali-votkinskiy-zavod-21-lyutogo-2026-yaki-shhe_n3014223
This appears to be one of the few confirmed effective uses of the famous Flamingo missiles.
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Zelensky revealed his vision of Ukraine's victory in an interview with the BBC. Of course, he said, victory meant restoring normal lives for Ukrainians and ending the killing. But the wider view of victory he presented was all about a global threat that he says comes from putin. "I believe that stopping putin today and preventing him from occupying Ukraine is a victory for the whole world. Because putin will not stop at Ukraine. And we also don't have enough weapons. That depends not just on us, but on our partners. So as of now that's not possible but returning to the just borders of 1991 [the year Ukraine declared its independence, precipitating the final collapse of the Soviet Union] without a doubt, is not only a victory, it's justice. Ukraine's victory is the preservation of our independence, and a victory of justice for the whole world is the return of all our lands." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgj9p15y87o
Ukraine seeks to transfer the Armed Forces to a contractual basis, but the state lacks financial resources to implement such a reform, and Kyiv is counting on the help of European partners in this matter, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. On the one hand, this is consistent with his rhetoric that Ukraine protects all of Europe from russia, and on the other, it discredits the previous image of heroic Ukrainians who are ready to die for their country for free and recognizes that this is not always the case. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/354128-ukraina-khochet-pereyti-s-mobilizatsii-na-kontrakty-no-ne-imeet-dostatochnykh-sredstv-zelenskiy
Meanwhile, the Spetsmashkomplekt company, which is the only private manufacturer of 12.7×99 mm and 12.7×108 mm caliber cartridges in Ukraine, was forced to stop production after searches by law enforcement officers, said its head, Igor Goltvenko. https://espreso.tv/viyskovi-novyny-ediniy-ukrainskiy-privatniy-virobnik-krupnokalibernikh-patroniv-yakimi-zbivayut-shakhedi-vimusheno-zupiniv-robotu-cherez-obshuki
A 23-year-old female police officer has been killed and 25 people injured in what Ukrainian officials have called a terror attack in the western city of Lviv. Two homemade explosive devices detonated after police crews responded to a reported break-in shortly after midnight on Sunday, the National Police of Ukraine said. The devices were planted in waste bins, it added. The police later said the 33-year-old suspect had made and planted the explosives on the "instruction" of an agent of russia's special services. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyz8d79djeo
Whoever does it and whatever goal is achieved, the consequences will be obvious - further intimidation of the population, increased police surveillance and restrictions on people's rights by the authorities under the pretext of fighting terrorism.
Like an advisor to the Minister of Defense proposes selling SIM cards with passports with a limited quantity as a means of countering russian drones. https://www.unian.ua/weapons/sim-karti-za-pasportom-flesh-zaproponuvav-zhorstke-rishennya-dlya-protidiji-fpv-dronam-rf-13290279.html
Volodymyr Popereshnyuk, co-founder of the largest private postal operator in Ukraine, Nova Poshta, initiated a discussion on social media about the advisability of maintaining the curfew: "The curfew needs to be either canceled or expertly explained why it is needed, how it strengthens the country's defense capability, and how it affects people's safety. Because restrictions on the movement of people, cars, and cargo definitely have a negative impact on the economy. And therefore on defense capability." https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1136980.html
The main thing is that russia can always be blamed for everything, and everyone who opposes the authorities can be called russian agents. But even direct ties with russia do not create any problems for those who collaborate or are part of the regime. For example, Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko and three of his deputies have family ties to russia. https://24tv.ua/rodinni-zvyazki-genprokurora-kravchenka-rosiyi-detali-rozsliduvannya_n3009585
Neither as a son nor as the Prosecutor General, I am responsible for the actions of my relatives. There are no facts that would indicate the influence of these circumstances on the official activities of his deputies or a conflict of interest, he explained. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/353643-ruslan-kravchenko-generalnyy-prokuror-prokommentiroval-zayavleniya-o-rodstvennikakh-i-svoey-komande
At a critical moment, mobilization in Ukraine will be carried out by combat battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This statement was published by the commander of the battalion of the Main Intelligence Directorate "Brotherhood" Oleksiy Seredyuk, with the call sign Borghese, on the social network page of the Kyiv Regional Mobilization Center.
In particular, in his statement, the military man said that in the frontline zone his unit "took away from the houses all the evaders on the way. If successful in certain areas, the enemy will take this cattle into his army, and it will fight for the russian federation". In addition, according to him, those who "fight against mobilization centers", criticize mobilization or distribute relevant content, are "enemies of Ukraine" and, moreover, even "more dangerous than a russian soldier". https://www.unian.ua/society/mobilizaciya-v-ukrajini-tck-viklikav-skandal-zayavoyu-viyskovogo-pro-mobilizaciyu-13294593.html
Although this publication was quickly removed, this attitude towards some Ukrainians as if they were cattle and enemies explains why many families from frontline zones are already refusing to evacuate to Ukraine, and those who are already in Ukraine are resisting the authorities.
Just in the last week, only some of the messages:
- Explosion at the Kolomyia district mobilization center https://suspilne.media/ivano-frankivsk/1243316-vibuh-u-kolomijskomu-rajonnomu-tck-ta-sp-kvalifikuut-ak-teroristicnij-akt-sbu/
- In Kharkiv, a man changed his gender to female to avoid mobilization https://sud.ua/uk/news/sudebnaya-praktika/353904-u-kharkovi-zhinka-yaka-zminila-stat-z-cholovika-cherez-sud-zobovyazala-ttsk-viklyuchiti-yiyi-iz-viyskovogo-obliku
-In Kryvy Rih, a 14-year-old boy was placed in an orphanage after his father went to the mobilization center to update his data and did not return, said Dmytro Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/353860-v-krivom-roge-14-letniy-podrostok-okazalsya-v-reabilitatsionnom-tsentre-posle-mobilizatsii-ottsa-chto-vyyasnil-ombudsman
- Footballer Danylo Kolesnyk, who hit a representative of the mobilization center, said that he stood up for a person whom representatives of the mobilization center "deliberately hit with a car, brutally threatened to use firearms and were the first to inflict bodily harm." The football player assured that he supports the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but believes that representatives of any body cannot hide behind the authority of the front https://suspilne.media/kyiv/1243684-futbolist-kolesnik-prokomentuvav-skandal-iz-tck-zastupivsa-za-ludinu/
Rare cases of exposure of corrupt officials make us wonder how many remain unnoticed by law enforcement agencies?
- The chief psychiatrist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is suspected of money laundering through the purchase of luxury real estate and premium cars, which he registered for close relatives https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/353948-elitnaya-nedvizhimost-i-premium-avto-sbu-obyavila-novoe-podozrenie-glavnomu-psikhiatru-vsu-druzyu-v-legalizatsii-pochti-1-mln
- Major of the Airborne Assault Troops Rear Command reported suspicion of illegal enrichment of millions of dollars https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/353923-mayoru-tyla-dshv-soobschili-o-podozrenii-v-nezakonnom-obogaschenii-lyuks-odezhda-i-uchastok-na-bali
As of January 31, 2026, 5,937 clergymen in Ukraine were officially reserved from mobilization. More than 40% of them represent various branches of Protestantism. The right to reservation applies only to representatives of organizations recognized as “critically important for the functioning of the economy and ensuring the livelihoods of the population in a special period.”
https://slovoproslovo.info/bronuvannia-sviashchennosluzhyteliv-2026-ukraina
US President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News in an interview that the US is counting on the parties to come closer together within the next three weeks, which could result in a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and russian President Vladimir putin. It could also be trilateral - with the participation of US President Donald Trump. https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1136005-ssha-hochut-zblyzyty-ukrayinu-ta-rosiyu-za-try-tyzhni-a-tam-mozhlyva-zustrich-zelenskogo-ta-putina
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6389705492112
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Yesterday marked the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion. It's hard to look at the hype on social media because of it. Some posts look as if people are celebrating this date, boasting about their resilience. This is not surprising, because they have lost nothing and have not spent a single day at the front. For those for whom the war began in 2014, this looks quite unpleasant.
European leaders are in Ukraine and commemorative events are being held across the country. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cre08q9dergt
China supports all efforts to establish peace in Ukraine and calls on the parties involved in the russian-Ukrainian war to seize the opportunity for dialogue that has recently appeared and reach a comprehensive and binding peace agreement, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a briefing. According to the diplomat, China's position on the "Ukrainian crisis" (as China officially calls the Russian war against Ukraine) remains consistent and clear, and Beijing continues to consider a political settlement as the only real way to end the conflict. The "Ukrainian crisis" is not and should not be a problem between China and the European Union, she said. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/4094800-kitaj-zrobiv-zaavu-do-cetvertoi-ricnici-vijni-v-ukraini.html
The latter is one of China's real interests and will determine its role in the war.
The expected large-scale missile attack did not happen, but I think it will happen today or tomorrow. About 80% of Ukraine's territory is unprotected from ballistic weapons, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with Tagesschau. youtube.com/watch?si=yUOywN4nlY1GZMpc&v=RgQPxs2ioF0&feature=youtu.be
At least there will be no more severe frosts and we need to prepare for the severe heat in the summer. I guess I will still find the money to buy a new battery. Compared to last year, prices have almost halved, but due to inflation, the exchange rate difference can make them even more expensive. I read somewhere that Ukrainians already have batteries with a total capacity of as much as a nuclear power plant unit.
Representatives of Great Britain and France at a meeting of the UN Security Council denied the statement spread by the russian authorities about the alleged readiness of their countries to transfer a "nuclear bomb" to Kyiv. https://suspilne.media/1249014-london-i-pariz-vidhilili-zaavi-rf-pro-nibito-pidgotovku-do-peredaci-kievu-adernoi-bombi-a-mzs-nazvalo-ih-absurdnimi/
It seems that in the skill of provocations and manipulations, russia is far ahead of all other members of the UN.
The Slovak Ministry of Economy announced that it has received official confirmation from the Ukrainian side regarding the date of resumption of the pumping of russian oil. But Ukraine has not made an official announcement about resuming oil deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline, a Ukrainian energy source told Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-further-delays-resumption-druzhba-oil-deliveries-slovakia-says-2026-02-24/
Slovakia is officially suspending emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine as a measure in response to oil transit problems, Prime Minister Robert Fico said on February 23. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/fitso-naklav-zaboronu-na-avariini-postachannia-elektroenergiyi-v-ukrayinu?utm_source=ukrnet_news
The Ukrainian authorities have stated that this will not affect the electricity situation. We'll see...
Meanwhile, on February 24, russia again attacked with drones a gas production infrastructure facility of the Naftogaz group in the Kharkiv region, which was damaged and its work was stopped. https://biz.nv.ua/ukr/markets/rf-znovu-atakuye-ukrajinsku-gazovidobuvnu-infrastrukturu-ob-yekt-zupineniy-ye-poshkodzhennya-50586673.html
On February 23, two more explosions also occurred, targeting police officers. A powerful explosion occurred in the building of one of the police departments in the city of Dnipro in the evening, but no one was injured. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/vibukh-u-raividdili-politsiyi-dnipra-viznali-teraktom-ziavilisia-foto?utm_source=ukrnet_news
Also, an explosion occurred at a gas station located next to the Mykolaiv patrol police department while police officers were there, injuring seven people. https://novosti-n.org/ua/news/Vybuh-bilya-upravlinnya-patrulnoyi-policziyi-u-Mykolayevi-poraneno-7-pravoohoroncziv-333222#image-1
The authorities blame russia for the terrorist attacks, but many people has little sympathy for the police, given that they are perceived not as defenders, but as an instrument of state violence. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8yKICqh1tE
In Lutsk, a man fired several shots at military personnel during an attempt to mobilize him. Fortunately, no one was injured. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/354298-v-lutske-muzhchina-otkryl-ogon-po-voennosluzhaschim-ttsk-chto-izvestno
Another Ukrainian chose prison over the army. Probably because the chances of survival in prison are higher, and prison sentences are limited in time, unlike military service. But it seems that the authorities continue to ignore the most important thing - the lack of understanding among those who are sent to the front why and for what they have to fight.
The head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy, Danylo Hetmantsev, stated in an interview with Forbes that "Not all colleagues (in the Verkhovna Rada and the Cabinet of Ministers) have a premonition of a financial tragedy. I have it, the Minister of Finance does, because he understands that in April there will be nothing to finance expenditures. Today we are already using the funds that were set aside for the second half of the year. The IMF's position on the beacons agreed upon by the government is very simple - they are mandatory. To receive funds from the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine must fulfill strict conditions by the end of March." https://forbes.ua/money/ne-u-vsikh-e-vidchuttya-blizkoi-finansovoi-tragedii-danilo-getmantsev-pro-pdv-dlya-fopiv-politichnu-krizu-v-radi-legalizatsiyu-kripti-ta-vidkat-detinizatsii-intervyu-23022026-36459#kripta-ta-igorka
According to the updated joint Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) released today by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations currently estimates that as of 31 December 2025, the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is almost $588 billion (over €500 billion) over the next decade, which is nearly 3 times the estimated nominal GDP of Ukraine for 2025. https://ukraine.un.org/en/310511-updated-ukraine-recovery-and-reconstruction-needs-assessment-released
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Well, this night I woke up to the explosions, but I reacted to them like most Ukrainians - I cursed and tried to fall asleep. There is extremely little information about the consequences, other than the general report of damage to the energy sector. Meanwhile, the air temperature outside is slowly rising and in the apartment it is already on average +15C, which is quite good. As a friend of mine said, his wife used to complain that she was freezing at +22C, but now she is happy when it is +15C.
Among the so-called experts, there are discussions on how best to restore the energy sector and what is better - to restore large old thermal power plants or to build new small ones, but no one says how exactly and at whose expense to do it. In addition to the many organizational and technical issues, no one knows how it is possible to do it in the few months that remain until the next heating season. It seems to me that the number of people who want to live in Ukraine in apartments without heating next winter may be much smaller. So this again raises the question of how Ukraine is going to continue to exist and fight in such circumstances. And Trump, who calls for an end to the war within a month, seems to remain the only world leader who really cares about Ukrainians, because calls to continue the war do not give an answer as to how and to what result this will lead. Many acquaintances from abroad ask me what I think about the terms of the peace agreement. From my point of view as a realist, Ukraine does not have the resources to return the lands occupied by russia and recording losses on the front line can be considered a good result. If this will make it possible to change the government and start restoring normal life in the rest of the territory and preserve the lives of Ukrainians, then this can also be considered a good result. Some believe that if concessions are made, Ukraine will turn into Belarus under the influence of russia. But for me, the answer to the question of what is better - to be a living Belarusian or a dead Ukrainian is quite obvious. Of course, if I were making money from the war or my power depended on how long the war would last, I would find a million arguments why it should continue. And for this I would have all the necessary propaganda tools. And I am sure that there will be enough of those who will support this because the intellectual level of any crowd is always lower than that of its most stupid representative, since the crowd is driven by emotions, not reason. People are always inclined to believe in fairy tales, and persecute those who try to convey to them the harsh reality. That is why the authorities are so good at intimidating people with evil russians, although today looking out the window at how several burly policemen shoved some man into a bus, not knowing that they were Ukrainians, I would at first have decided that these were that evil russians. Now I think that in 2014 it was not so scary to walk the streets of occupied Donetsk among russian bandits who did not touch unarmed people. Of course, then the policy of the russians was to show their attractiveness, which was later replaced by a different attitude. Although recently, even in the occupied territories, if you do not openly resist the russians, you can live wherever you want without any restrictions on movement or forced mobilization, and even go abroad without bribes.
Colin asked me why people are tolerant of bribes. I have no answers to this question. But it seems like something has changed and almost every day we hear about another exposure of corrupt officials. Unfortunately, the scale is simply terrible and it seems to me that if the government were not so corrupt, Ukraine would have enough money even without the help of partners. Law enforcement officers exposed the commander of the logistics of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the head of the Security Service of Ukraine Department in the Zhytomyr region for corruption during the construction of shelters for aircraft. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/4096290-sud-arestuvav-nacalnika-upravlinna-sbu-v-zitomirskij-oblasti-zastava-majze-7-miljoniv.html
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/4095428-komanduvaca-logistiki-povitranih-sil-zsu-i-nacalnika-upravlinna-sbu-vikrili-na-habari.html
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cj4zy8rwr0wo
I do not know how much money was stolen during the construction, but the amount of the bribe for concealment was 3 million US dollars.
Marta Kos, the European Commissioner for Enlargement, stated in an interview with European Truth that problems with trust in Ukraine due to the attack on anti-corruption bodies in the summer of 2025 still exist. When asked whether it is possible to talk about the restoration of trust in Kyiv by the EU after the repeal of the scandalous laws, the European Commissioner replied: "No, not at all. This will remain forever." https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/ataka-na-nabu-i-sap-ukrajina-shche-ne-vidnovila-doviru-yevrosoyuzu-50587710.html
Some believe that certain things appear in the information field solely to distract the public from the internal causes of most of Ukraine's problems. Ukrainian skeletonist Vladyslav Geraskevych, who was disqualified from the 2026 Olympic Games, spoke in the Verkhovna Rada at the initiative of the Office of the President. He called for sanctions to be imposed and for Serhiy Bubka, who is already 62 years old, to be stripped of the title of Hero of Ukraine. https://tsn.ua/prosport/heraskevych-u-radi-potrolyv-deputativ-i-zaklykav-pozbavyty-bubku-zvannia-heroia-ukrayiny-3029810.html
Volodymyr Zelensky had previously awarded Geraskevych the Order of Freedom. So in Ukraine a loser in sports can make a career in politics. But I am not surprised. At one time, Zelensky won the elections not due to his own achievements or qualities, which were not there, but due to the unprecedented slander of Poroshenko.
Let me remind you that Serhiy Bubka is a Ukrainian former pole vaulter. He is the 1988 Olympic Champion, a record six-time consecutive World Champion, a record four-time World Indoor Champion, the 1985 European Indoor Champion, the 1986 European Champion and a seven-time IAAF Grand Prix Final Champion. Bubka broke the world record in men's pole vault a record 35 times (17 outdoors, 18 indoors). He was twice named Athlete of the Year and in 2012 was one of 24 athletes inducted as inaugural members of the International Association of Athletics Federations Hall of Fame. Bubka serves as Senior Vice President of the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) since 2007 and served as President of the National Olympic Committee of Ukraine from 2005 to November 2022. He is also an Honorary Member of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), having been involved since 1996. On 5 March 2022, Bubka professed his love for his homeland after the 2022 russian invasion of Ukraine, and declared: "Ukraine will win". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Bubka
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Israel attacked Iran. https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-attack-02-28-26-hnk-intl
It was inevitable. It was impossible to ignore the US preparations for this in recent times, just as in 2021 russia's preparations for an attack on Ukraine were. It is also obvious that this war will not be short and easy and will cause extremely great damage to both Israel and Iran. But if we look at it globally, then taking into account Pakistan's attack on Afghanistan, it is about control over oil in the Middle East and transport infrastructure in Afghanistan, which directly affects China's regional and strategic interests. So, a new stage of the Third World War has begun. This will also undoubtedly affect Ukraine. As the reckless statements of Zelensky, who said in an interview with Sky News that he would "with pleasure" accept nuclear weapons from Great Britain and France, but Kyiv did not receive any such offers. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/zelenskij-iz-zadovolennjam-prijnjav-bi-jadernu-zbroju-vid-britaniji-ta-frantsiji.html
It seems only a really great comedian can laugh at things like that ...
He also stated that Ukraine mobilizes 30-34 thousand fighters per month, while russia mobilizes about 10 thousand more. https://24tv.ua/mobilizatsiya-ukrayini-rosiyi-zelenskiy-ozvuchiv-tsifri_n3018624
By the way, these are also the numbers of losses, since there is no demobilization in Ukraine. In this race for attrition, we must not forget that russia has 5 times more population, and mobilization there is voluntary and mainly involves marginalized and criminals, which not only does not harm the economy, but also cleanses society of such people, and russia also has a large reserve of migrants from Central Asia, who can now obtain russian citizenship only after serving in the army.
In the Ukrainian army, with the arrival of the former Minister of Digitalization, and before that, a marketing specialist, to the position of Minister of Defense, the expected changes are taking place. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are working on creating a vertical of digital officers who will introduce innovations in the army. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/4096316-fedorov-zaaviv-so-u-zsu-zavlatsa-cifrovi-oficeri-persogo-vze-priznacili.html
I am convinced that if, for example, a hairdresser were appointed as the Minister of Defense, the position of a hairdresser officer would be mandatory in each unit, and perhaps even special hairdresser troops would be created as a separate branch of the military.
I was reminded of an old anecdote about the last General Secretary of the USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev, and his reforms. During the period of Perestroika, chickens began to die in the central state farm "Red October". 10% died in one day. Such a serious event was immediately reported to Gorbachev:
— Mikhail Sergeevich, 10% of the chickens died at the Krasny Oktyabr state farm.
- This is very serious. Hang a red circle above the chicken coop.
Another 20% fell the next day.
— Mikhail Sergeevich, another 20% of chickens died at the Krasny Oktyabr state farm.
— Are you sure that all the chickens saw the red circle?
— Yes, of course, Mikhail Sergeevich.
- Hang a black square in the same place.
The next day, there was not a single chicken left at the Krasny Oktyabr state farm, which was reported:
— Mikhail Sergeevich, all the chickens at the Krasny Oktyabr state farm died.
- What a pity, I still had so many wonderful ideas.
But it seems that something is also changing in the system of governance in Ukraine. It is obvious that Zelensky's environment is gradually changing and external influence is increasing. The former UK PM Rishi Sunak and Chrystia Freeland, who served as Canada's Minister of Finance from 2020 to 2024 have joined President Volodymyr Zelensky’s International Advisory Council for the Economic Renewal of Ukraine. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-rishi-sunak-zelensky-b2929045.html
https://suspilne.media/1249624-ukrainci-vouut-ne-dla-togo-sob-pisla-vijni-buti-bidnimi-hrista-friland-pro-risenna-stati-radniceu-zelenskogo/
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky met with former Minister of Foreign Affairs Pavlo Klimkin and offered him several areas of further cooperation. https://suspilne.media/1251376-zelenskij-zaproponuvav-klimkinu-kilka-napramiv-podalsoi-spivpraci/
This diplomat of russian origin was a minister under previous President Petro Poroshenko.
Diplomacy in Ukraine is obviously a special art form. Ukraine constantly informs China about cases of russian sanctions circumvention, about the discovery of Chinese components in missiles and drones, or machine tools in factories, said Vladyslav Vlasyuk, the presidential advisor and plenipotentiary for sanctions policy, in an interview with Radio Liberty. He also called China a problematic country because of russia's support. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-op-sanktsiyi-rosiya-postavky-kytay/33689643.html
This will definitely improve Ukraine's relations with China against the backdrop of difficult relations with the USA.
The U.S. State Department told the Ukrainian government to refrain from hitting U.S. interests following a Ukrainian attack on the russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, Kyiv's ambassador to Washington said on February 24. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/ukraine-does-not-feel-abandoned-by-us-government-envoy-says-2026-02-24/
That is why I believe that the only partner of Ukraine that will always have common interests with it is Poland. "Ukraine's victory in the war will be Poland's victory. russian dictator Vladimir Putin does not seek peace, but Ukraine's surrender," said the head of the Polish Foreign Ministry, Radosław Sikorski. Sikorski also reported that Poland is now the second largest supplier of goods to Ukraine. In addition, he stated that thanks to Ukrainians living in Poland, Poland's GDP increased by almost PLN 100 billion (USD 84 billion) in 2024. According to him, "the level of economic activity of adult immigrants from Ukraine is even higher than among Poles." The minister also noted that Ukrainians have founded more than 120,000 companies in Poland. Regarding relations with the United States, he said, "We have been and will be loyal partners of America. But we cannot be suckers." https://wszystkoconajwazniejsze.pl/radoslaw-sikorski-expose-2026/
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Ukraine and the International Monetary Fund signed a memorandum on receiving the next tranche of financing after the IMF Board meeting on February 26, which approved a program for Ukraine for $8.1 billion. As part of the agreements, the government pledged to fulfill a number of mandatory prior actions, in particular, to introduce new tax changes for businesses and citizens, said MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak. One of the first structural “beacons” of the program is the adoption of a package of tax changes for 2026–2027. The deadline is the end of March. https://ua.news/ua/ukraine/ukrayina-ta-mvf-pidpisali-memorandum-viiskovii-zbir-5-bezstrokovo-ta-pdv-dlia-fop
In unverified sources, I saw that Ukraine must pay about 70% of the new borrowing for servicing previously taken loans. Apparently, this is already a problem of the creditor, not the debtor.
Meanwhile, the state-owned PrivatBank wrote off NPLs (non-performing loans) totaling UAH 151.5 billion ($3.5 billion) by the end of 2025. This is evidenced by the official reporting of the National Bank and confirmed by the bank itself. PrivatBank openly says that it has written off the debts of former shareholders who controlled the bank before its nationalization in December 2016, including oligarchs Ihor Kolomoisky (49.98% of shares) and Gennady Bogolyubov (41.6%). Ihor Kolomoisky has been in custody since September 2023, charged with fraud, money laundering, and misappropriation of PrivatBank assets worth UAH 9.2 billion. https://telegraf.ua/ukr/economics-finance/2026-02-09/5932732-kolomoyskiy-i-druzi-bilshe-ne-vinni-privatbanku-chomu-spisano-milyardi-i-shcho-dali
While the situation in Ukraine remains uncertain, I continue to develop my initiative to participate in the future recovery of Ukraine. Yesterday I took part in a round table dedicated to the anniversary of the implementation of the European legislation on preventive restructuring in Ukraine. In addition to colleagues and representatives of banks, the Ministry of Justice and judges, I met with the Vice President of the Canadian-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce, to whom I told about the possibilities of using this new in Ukraine, but well-known abroad, instrument for investing in Ukraine. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/4096235-procedura-preventivnoi-restrukturizacii-v-ukraini-lise-rozvivaetsa-i-potrebue-adaptacii-ekspert.html
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The war in the Middle East is escalating and Ukrainians are thinking about how it will affect them. It is obvious that Ukraine will now have fewer weapons and this is more sensitive than stopping the supply of Iranian drones and missiles to russia. Oil prices will go up and this will help russia. I am not talking about the fact that russia will now consider itself not the only aggressor in the world and can justify its actions in Ukraine by pointing out that the US is doing the same in Venezuela, Cuba and Iran.
Despite all the differences in the situation in Ukraine and Iran, some of Ukraine's experience can be applied to Iran. Four years of missile strikes on Ukraine and large-scale destruction of the energy sector have not led to collapse and regime change, so I would not expect that Trump's goal of regime change in Iran can be achieved without a successful ground operation. But Iran is a large country with over 90 million people and an army of millions, and the regime is not only the murdered Ayatollah Khomeini and other high-ranking officials, but also many other people who are not going to give in, despite Trump's statements that the new leaders want to talk to him. Even total air superiority does not guarantee quick success, as Gaza has shown. Trump's calls for Iranians to overthrow the regime will most likely only lead to greater casualties among the protesters, since in the chaos it is the regime that has control over resources and the armed forces, and ordinary people will now think about immediate survival, not about political change.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98g91wgdd8o
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/us-israel-iran-attack-03-01-26-intl?post-id=cmm7yu0i600003b6sikraqtyg
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-attack-02-28-26-hnk-intl
Libya has already entered the war, where Hezbollah has struck Israel, and anti-American protests in Pakistan. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-police-fire-tear-gas-protesters-outside-us-consulate-reuters-witness-2026-03-01/
The position of China, which is not happy with high oil prices and may take advantage of the situation and attack Taiwan while the US is busy in the Middle East, will be important.
So now Ukraine can only count on the support of part of Europe and its own forces. The main, albeit rapidly decreasing resource, are people, but it seems that the government is not going to change anything in its attitude towards people. The deputies are again proposing to strengthen coercion and punishment for evasion of service of those who do not work for the government and do not have money for bribes. https://sud.ua/uk/news/video/354690-uklonyayuschimsya-planiruyut-polnostyu-zablokirovat-vse-scheta-i-zapretit-ezdit-na-avtomobile-nardep-venislavskiy
Instead, sociologists say that now 60% believe that we need to negotiate and settle, stop the war through negotiations, but in 2022-23, the same 60%, or even more, said that we need to go to victory, all the way to the Kremlin. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/sociolog-pro-nastroyi-ukrayintsiv/33688083.html
Of course, most Ukrainians do not believe in long-term peace with russia or in complete victory. In general, a Ukrainian cannot say that mobilization is bad, because who will fight then? But it is obvious that it must change. Unfortunately, apart from general words that changes are needed, the authorities do not offer a clear, understandable and fair strategy for mobilization, which leads to increased internal tension in the rear, where people see healthy police officers catching sick men on the streets, and in one office there are women, one of whom had a husband killed at the front, and the other whose husband has been exempted from military service for a bribe or because he works for the government.
It is unacceptable that Ukraine lacks at least 4,000 energy workers to effectively restore the power system after massive enemy shelling because they were mobilized. https://www.unian.ua/economics/energetics/v-ukrajini-kritichniy-deficit-energetikiv-ekspert-poyasniv-chomu-tak-stalosya-13297464.html
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Yes, air power alone has never changed a government or won a war without powerful additional factors. Almost always this is military ground forces, typically of the attacking country or allies, or a rebel army. None of these are present yet in Iran.
I and many, many others are happy to see the cruel murderous thugs who enslaved Iran and brought much chaos and death to the Middle East finally delivered into eternal justice. However that shouldn’t be confused with successfully changing the regime they led into something more benign.
As you point out it will also affect the Ukrainian situation most unfortunately. The only positive I can think of is destroying the Iranian drone factories and missile factories assuming the US does so. The effect would be modest though since Russia is building their own in quantities.
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I and many, many others are happy to see the cruel murderous thugs who enslaved Iran and brought much chaos and death to the Middle East delivered into eternal justice.
Didn't the people support them and help them come to power in 1979? In fact, I'm more interested in why the authoritarian evil and bloody regimes in Iran and russia didn't close the borders to their citizens, unlike democratic Ukraine? Why even in the occupied territories no one catches Ukrainians on the streets and they can go wherever they want from there if they want?
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Yes Ukraine is still an outlier even compared to these.
The Shah was overthrown by a fairly broadly supported uprising. Iranians didn’t expect to then end up in a brutal, isolated theocracy, in many ways much worse than the Shah’s regime. In general one could leave Iran, the mullahs were happy to have potential troublemakers remove themselves. However I’m not sure about men of military age during the period of the Iran-Iraq war.
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Iranians didn’t expect to then end up in a brutal, isolated theocracy, in many ways much worse than the Shah’s regime.
"All revolutions are conceived by idealists, implemented by fanatics, and its fruits are stolen by scoundrels". And all this is happening with the powerful support of the ignorant majority. We must not forget that even having a higher education does not make a person intelligent. This is a quality that one must be born with.
It seems like spring has come. The air temperature during the day is above zero and the sun is shining, which significantly lifts the mood. But there has already been a warning about the next major air attack by russia, the target of which this time is supposedly the water supply system of large cities. Small attacks of a couple of hundred drones continue daily and have long become commonplace. But the Persian Gulf countries were unprepared for such attacks and Reuters writes about the stoppage of 20% of gas production in the world due to strikes by Iranian drones. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-aramco-shuts-ras-tanura-refinery-after-drone-strike-source-says-2026-03-02/
As Iran continues to launch missiles and drones in all directions, and the fall of the regime has not occurred https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c62gg44d53xt , this has given rise to the emergence of numerous memes in Ukraine that use analogies with the war in Ukraine - humorous calls from single Ukrainian women to provide shelter to refugee sheikhs, or to give Dubai to Iran in exchange for peace, by analogy with giving Donbas to russia, "Tehran in 3 days", "Shaitan the dog", and so on... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patron_(dog)
In fact, most Ukrainians sympathize with the Iranians and constantly compare what is happening there with what is happening in Ukraine. I am sure that the accusation of creating a nuclear bomb (which could really be created by the regime) is, as in the case of the alleged chemical weapons in Iraq, just a pretext for a war, the real goal of which is control over oil and the elimination of competitors. Now the only obvious beneficiaries are the USA and russia, but Europe and Asia have suffered the most. The prices for gasoline and gas have already risen wildly and no one knows whether there will be anything to fuel all those generators that have been brought to Ukraine from all over the world. https://kurs.com.ua/novost/1445595-ceni-na-azs-snova-vzleteli-v-chem-prichina-i-chto-budet-dalshe
Replacing an authoritarian regime is extremely difficult, because it is not enough to kill one person, there are thousands of others who control the resources and will defend their power and status to the last. And that is why I do not expect, unlike many others, that putin's death will fundamentally change anything. Even if the russians stop due to exhaustion, they will continue to try to achieve their goals. And now is the most favorable time for them.
Bloomberg writes that russian oil supplies to India have resumed. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-05/russian-oil-cargoes-swing-back-to-india-as-iran-war-hits-supply
Also, the cessation of supplies of critical weapons, especially interceptor missiles for air defense, due to the depletion of their stocks in the United States, is a major threat to Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxzzqe82d2o
I watched the latest interview with Kyrylo Budanov https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QziT8HsPag and noted his growing political activity as head of the President's Office, although he demonstratively continues to wear shoulder straps and directly declares that he remains a military man. His slogans are simple and very appealing to the Ukrainian electorate, which obviously wants a strong leader, but does not want to think about the consequences. I cannot help but recall how authoritarianism in Russia began with the coming to power of the then young and intelligent putin, who promised to protect russia from external enemies, justifying repression and oppression. Well, people will again pay dearly for their choice and will remember Volodymyr Zelensky as the good old days, as they now remember Petro Poroshenko and even Viktor Yanukovych. The interests of the state will again be put above the interests of the people and we know how it always ended. And so far, this leads to people not trusting the state and caring first of all about themselves. A vicious circle of inefficiency and disunity that Ukraine cannot afford. The biggest pessimists generally believe that Zelensky will be the last president in Ukraine.
Although it is difficult to disagree with his thesis that commanders should be close to their military units to increase combat effectiveness. This once again reminds us that if he, and not Oleksandr Syrsky, were appointed as Valery Zaluzhny's successor, he could radically change the Ukrainian army and its effectiveness. But time is running out and it seems to me that it will not be possible to radically change anything. At least as long as Zelensky and Syrsky are in charge of the Ukrainian defense.
National Guard Commander Oleksandr Pivnenko believes that the russian army managed to occupy a significant part of the territory at the beginning of the full-scale invasion because Ukraine was not ready for it. https://www.dsnews.ua/ukr/politics/komanduvach-nacgvardiji-zayaviv-shcho-mi-ne-buli-gotovi-do-povnomasshtabnogo-vtorgnennya-tomu-rosiji-vdalosya-tak-bagato-okupuvati-26022026-453958
Zaluzhny also continues to give interviews and make speeches at events, but this attracts much less attention. https://www.pravda.com.ua/columns/2026/02/23/8022301/
https://tsn.ua/ukrayina/tradytsiynyy-pidkhid-do-mobilizatsiyi-sebe-vycherpav-zaluznyy-nazvav-alternatyvu-3027797.html
He also tries to speculate on the topic of mobilization, pointing out the need to replace people with machines, but I'm not sure he believes that himself. Looking at the numerous videos showing kidnappings, beatings, and murders of people during mobilization, I once again ask myself how this strengthens the country's defense capabilities and motivates people to fight for Ukraine, rather than fleeing at the first opportunity or harming and taking revenge for such treatment of themselves?
Some European countries are raising the issue of returning men to Ukraine, but the issue of returning Ukrainian men of military age who are under temporary protection is not currently on the EU agenda, and no changes to the relevant provision are expected this year, said European Commission spokesman Markus Lammert. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/4096298-ukrainski-coloviki-prizovnogo-viku-maut-taki-z-prava-na-timcasovij-zahist-ak-i-zinki-ta-diti-evrokomisia.html
Europe has a really difficult choice about how to best use Ukrainian men, who are clearly in fewer numbers than everyone would like. Should they fight in Ukraine or work in Europe?
Meanwhile, the registry of missing persons under special circumstances contains over 90,000 entries - military and civilian, including children. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2026/02/26/8022844/
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On the night of March 7, the enemy launched a combined strike on critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. The Air Force recorded 509 missiles and hits, of which 472 were neutralized. It was a loud midnight in Kyiv, and almost 2,000 houses were left without heating again. But it is already quite warm and sunny outside. https://kurs.com.ua/novost/1446243-nochnoi-obstrel-kieva-pochti-2-tisjachi-domov-ostalis-bez-tepla
https://kurs.com.ua/novost/1446230-rossija-atakovala-ukrainu-raketami-i-dronami-est-popadanija-na-22-lokacijah
https://kurs.com.ua/novost/1446251-v-ukranergo-rasskazali-o-posledstvijah-massirovannoi-ataki-rf-na-anergetiku-7-marta
At least 11 people were killed when a rocket hit a residential building in central Kharkiv. The railway in the west of the country and the Dniester Hydroelectric Power Plant were also damaged, which may cause problems not only with electricity, but also with water supply in several regions. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cewz7evxgqjo
https://agroreview.com/content/masovana-ataka-dnistrovsku-ges-naslidky/
Ukraine has used about 700 anti-aircraft missiles for the MIM-104 Patriot air defense system in four months. This is more than the American company Lockheed Martin produced in all of 2025. According to Euronews, this was stated by Andrius Kubilius, the European Union Commissioner for Defense and Space. https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/03/06/europe-must-urgently-boost-missile-production-eu-defence-chief-warn-as-global-demand-soars
Meanwhile, relations between Ukraine and Hungary, which is blocking Ukraine from receiving a €90 billion EU loan, continue to deteriorate. After Zelensky’s threats to Hungarian President Orban, which were condemned by the European Commission, Hungary detained Ukrainians who were transporting $40 million, €35 million and 9 kilograms of gold through Hungary in state-owned bank collection vehicles, accusing them of money laundering. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2026/03/6/7232646/
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2026/03/6/7232681/
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2026/03/6/7232650/
The Ukrainians were later released, but the money and gold were not returned.
Most EU countries did not support the idea of “advance accession”, or “reverse enlargement”, which the European Commission proposed for Ukraine, reports Politico https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/back-to-the-drawing-board-for-ukraines-eu-hopes
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Humanity eagerly continues to destroy itself, environmentalists' efforts to reduce pollutions are nullified by the products of wars around the world. The war in Iran is gaining momentum and it seems to me that more and more Iranians are realizing the inconsistency of their expectations of a US attack. Instead of a quick regime change, they got a devastating and long war. This is exactly what happened in Ukraine. Every revolution without real changes in society and the attitude towards the life of each citizen will not change anything for the better. Hopes that someone from the outside will solve your internal problems are groundless and extremely naive.
Thanks to Dave KB9YYM, I became a member of the Indianapolis Radio Club (IRC), although my radio activity has become much less. https://www.indyradioclub.org/index.html
I devote all my time to developing a new project to support investment in Ukraine, although I have no idea when this will become possible. My focus on supporting Ukrainian companies in crisis and reviving those companies that have already gone bankrupt by buying out distressed assets opens up good opportunities for potential investors. Despite the high risk of such investments, the fact that thousands of companies with foreign capital are successfully operating in Ukraine proves that it is possible and profitable. Preserving and creating jobs and developing production are vital for Ukraine's survival in the face of continued war and reduced foreign aid.
I have a website to create, a tour guide to Ukraine, and a lot of other work to find good offers and investors. Even if I don’t succeed, it has already significantly expanded my networking, given me a lot of new knowledge and skills. I remain extremely optimistic given the living conditions and health situation and this also supports me.
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The war in Iran continues and there are more and more analogies with Ukraine, although with many differences. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/08/us/politics/trump-russia-ukraine-iran-war.html
In both countries, the attackers failed to achieve their goals in a short time, and the main blow was not taken by the regime, but by the population, for whom both the regime and the attackers are enemies. There are also differences. There is no Internet in Iran and no close allies. Time will tell how long and in what format the war in Iran will last, but in Ukraine nothing has changed for a long time. It is obvious that russia, if it wanted, could greatly intensify its attacks, for example, destroying bridges across the Dnipro or nuclear power plant substations, but it is not doing so. Are those who consider this war to be a coordinated effort really right?
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine is sending an unspecified number of Ukrainian military personnel with experience in shooting down drones to the Middle East. https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ukraina-napravit-na-blizkij-shid-vijskovosluzhbovtsiv-z-dosvidom-zbivannya-shahed-v-isw-poyasnili-yaki-perspektivi-vidkrivayutsya.htm
Yesterday I thought about how the business activity of enterprising people would change if there were no such restrictions on freedom. The recently adopted law banning keeping dogs on a chain demonstrated that dogs in Ukraine now have more rights than men. Men do not share the state's desire to use them as cannon fodder. When trying to detain men, sometimes workers of mobilization centers receive knife wounds. https://suspilne.media/ivano-frankivsk/1259064-vijskovozobovazanij-vlastuvav-rizaninu-na-ivano-frankivsini-otrimali-poranenna-vijskovosluzbovci-tck-ta-sp/
Although more often, representatives of mobilization centers beat men in front of the police, who simply watch. https://suspilne.media/vinnytsia/1258556-pobitta-colovika-u-vinnici-u-tck-ta-sp-zasovuut-pricetnist-predstavnikiv-grupi-opovisenna/
In the Volyn region, a kidnapped man was freed by others, chasing the mobilization center buses in cars. In the video, the chase and ramming of the bus looked like a real blockbuster. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c0e5ywx4ne2o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD27r8olO24
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I tend not to be a cynical person, but I must admit that the first thing I thought of when I read about the potential 8 year sentence of the people who stopped the mobilization kidnappers: At least they will be in a relatively safe place (prison) rather than facing certain death at the eastern front!
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I tend not to be a cynical person, but I must admit that the first thing I thought of when I read about the potential 8 year sentence of the people who stopped the mobilization kidnappers: At least they will be in a relatively safe place (prison) rather than facing certain death at the eastern front!
I am sure that Ukrainian prisons are very different from American ones, but the issue of a future amnesty already has the form of a bill. https://unba.org.ua/news/11332-pislya-vijni-amnistiya-zlochinciv-chi-zvil-nennya-vid-vidpovidal-nosti.html
As for the possibility of dying quickly, it also depends on many factors. It is clear that the greatest losses are on the front line, and that is where recruits are sent first. But if a mobilized person has useful knowledge or skills, they will find a better place for him. The problem is that among the busified people, the majority are helpless and defenseless people from the lower strata of the population without high qualifications, for whom the only alternative remains to become a stormtrooper, regardless of age and health.
In Poltava region, a group of about 20 people attacked military personnel from a mobilization center and police officers during mobilization activities. During the conflict, tear gas was used against them, resulting in six police officers and military personnel suffering chemical burns. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/355760-v-poltavskoy-oblasti-gruppa-lyudey-napala-na-voennosluzhaschikh-ttsk-i-politseyskikh-shest-silovikov-poluchili-ozhogi
The Seventh Administrative Court of Appeals declared the mobilization of a man who, at the time of his conscription, had a valid deferment from military service due to caring for his disabled father and came to the service center to extend it unlawful. https://sud.ua/uk/news/sudebnaya-praktika/355774-priyshov-do-tsnap-prodovzhiti-vidstrochku-opinivsya-mobilizovanim-apelyatsiya-viznala-prizov-cholovika-nezakonnim
And an old, but unfortunately still relevant joke.
A dog runs across the border from Ukraine to russia. They ask it:
-Why are you running away?
The dog answers:
-In Ukraine, they are oppressing civil rights and freedoms.
A week later, with wide eyes, it runs back to Ukraine.
-Well, why are you going back?
And it answers:
- It's the same there, but in Ukraine at least you can bark!
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On the night of March 14, russia massively attacked Ukraine with hundreds of drones, and after 3 a.m. struck Kyiv and the region with hypersonic Zircon missiles from the sea and ballistic missiles from the north. Subsequently, the capital and surrounding cities were attacked by cruise missiles launched from bombers and ships. There is extensive destruction of residential buildings in the Kyiv region, including multi-story ones. There is information about four dead and 15 injured in Brovary and near Vyshgorod - satellite cities of Kyiv. The energy sector and important facilities around the capital were again under attack. There were reports of new problems with electricity in Kyiv and the Kyiv region. Missiles and drones also attacked Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and other regions. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cpw0lgd2q9wo
Because of this, I didn’t get enough sleep, as did the hairdresser I visited today. Next week I have a meeting scheduled for a project I’ve been working on recently, so I need to look good. Working on it takes a lot of effort, but it seems to be starting to bring the first results. Seva also visited me, who decided to attend a defense conference, and on Monday he has an interview with the PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers).
Ukraine will get money from EU countries to fund its war effort even if Hungary and Slovakia continue to block a promised €90 billion loan, two EU diplomats told POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-plan-to-keep-ukraine-afloat-hungary-blocking-e90b-loan/
The EU says that there is no plan "B" regarding the blocked 90 billion euros for Ukraine. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-e90-mlrd-ievro-dlia-ukrainy-es-plnu-b-nemaie/33704880.html
Ukraine’s central bank chief Andriy Pyshnyi said the US-led campaign against Iran risks piling additional pressure on the country’s war-devastated economy while handing a boost to bussian President Vladimir putin in the fifth year of his invasion. “If the conflict lasts long and remains intense, it could have a direct impact on Ukraine’s access to munitions and missiles for air defense systems,” Pyshnyi told Bloomberg. “I don’t want to generate any alarmist content, but of course — if we assume that Ukraine does not get access to this support loan for whatever reason — then there are two main sources to finance this gap: the domestic debt market and monetization of budget needs.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/ukraine-warns-oil-price-surge-set-to-boost-putin-s-war-chest
Meanwhile, the United States issued a 30-day waiver for countries to buy sanctioned russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea, in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said was a step to stabilize global energy markets roiled by the Iran war. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-issues-new-russia-related-general-license-oil-treasury-website-2026-03-12/
Mauro Longobardo, CEO of Ukraine's largest steel mill ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine that the first quarter of 2026 was a "real nightmare" for the company due to a combination of a number of negative factors and that "there is no short-term or even medium-term perspective in sight" for work in Ukraine. https://interfax.com.ua/news/interview/1150471.html
Unlike Ukraine, Poland is not going to take all the available loans. Polish President Karol Nawrocki has decided to veto the law on participation in the EU SAFE program, under which Poland is applying for about 44 billion euros in loans for rearmament. Nawrocki said that he would not sign a law that affects the sovereignty, independence, economic and military security of Poland. Nawrocki added that the SAFE program has raised many questions from the very beginning. He called one of the risks that it is a huge loan taken in foreign currency. According to him, Poles will have to return twice as much, and Western banks and financial institutions will earn on it. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2026/03/12/7233115/
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While the whole world is watching the war in Iran from the front pages of the world's media, the war in Ukraine is taking its course, although without as much attention as before.
All morning of March 16, Kyiv was under massive russian attack with drones and ballistic missiles. Debris from a downed drone fell in several districts and even in the very center of the city. An air alarm sounded in the capital several times. There were no fires or injuries, Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko reported. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ckgzd7w5xd5o
The president's reaction to another political crisis has emerged due to the intentions of a group of deputies from his Servant of the People party to resign. The president threatened them with mobilization, stating, "If you don't serve the state in parliament, then serve the state at the front." https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-zelenskyy-mobilizatsiya-rada-mandat-nardep/33707083.html
The point is not even that for this, deputies must first change the legislation, nor is it even that this is illegal interference in the activities of another type of state power, but that even the president openly admits that mobilization from an honorable duty to defend the country has turned into an instrument of repression and punishment.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Digital Affairs proposes to close access to many state registers ostensibly to protect national security. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/355885-mintsifry-predlagaet-ogranichit-dostup-k-informatsii-v-reestrakh-zachem-eto-delayut
In practice, this will lead to corruption and abuse by register holders, and will make it easier for fraudsters to commit property crimes, and will make it more difficult for owners to protect themselves from their actions. And instead of due diligence, the investor will receive an answer from lawyers that the counterparty cannot be verified. This will undoubtedly improve the economy of Ukraine...
The National Bank of Ukraine sold over a billion dollars on the interbank market in just one week, trying to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations, but the hryvnia continues to rapidly lose ground and renew historical anti-records. In total, since the beginning of this year, the National Bank has already spent more than $8 billion out of $53 billion from its gold and foreign exchange reserves. https://minfin.com.ua/ua/2026/03/14/169962018/
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Mobilization is the new Gulag.
There are many ways of obscuring sensitive land locations, ownership and uses on a case by case basis, and likewise for processing but not disclosing particular patents deemed secret for security reasons, etc. A blanket method as has been proposed certainly seems asinine for the reasons you mention. Are the people running that ministry really that daft? Or are they simply lazy? Or both?
Another reason not to do it occurs to me - if everything is secret, then there is no way to plant false information on those items to confuse and distract the enemy, or to expose information leaks and leakers.
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The problem is not in the mobilization itself, but in how it is carried out. As a result of this approach, unmotivated and sick people end up in the army, and the process is accompanied by discrediting the army, which obviously greatly harms Ukraine's defense capabilities. But given the scale of corruption and the crazy money involved in this, it becomes clear why the authorities will not change this system, at least as long as the people mobilized in this way will restrain russia. Perhaps there is also a certain logic in this and society is getting rid of the weakest men who are unable to escape or hide. It is a pity that, by coincidence, they are also the main economic force in Ukraine.
In Ukraine, financial monitoring of banking transactions has been significantly strengthened through the introduction of new algorithms based on artificial intelligence. Modern analysis systems allow financial institutions to instantly block cards in case of suspicious activity or inconsistency of expenses with official income of citizens. Now banks evaluate not only individual transactions, but also the overall financial model and lifestyle of each client, reports the Taxpayers Association of Ukraine. https://appu.org.ua/main-news/finmonitoring-yak-ne-stati-pidozrilim-dlya-svogo-banku-%E2%81%89/
But Ukrainians have long distrusted neither the state nor the banks, so they have already prepared for such a scenario. The most telling indicator of the state of the economy remains the amount of money withdrawn from the banking system. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, in February the amount of cash “on hand” among the population reached a new historical maximum — UAH 868.8 billion. The annual growth rate accelerated to +17.5% — the fastest jump since September 2022.
The rapid growth of cash outside banks is a worrying symptom. According to market experts and analysts for the first months of 2026, the main reasons for the accumulation of cash are not only inflation, which mechanically increases the amounts in wallets due to rising consumer prices, but also a conscious avoidance of interaction with the banking sector.
The population and small businesses are increasingly moving into the shadows due to increased financial monitoring, fear of unjustified blocking of accounts and possible administrative restrictions.
In addition, the threat of new attacks on energy infrastructure and the risk of blackouts force Ukrainians to keep significant reserves of physical money to meet basic needs, without relying on terminals and electronic payments. https://bigkyiv.com.ua/ukrayinczi-nakopychyly-rekordi-zaoshhadzhennya-u-dolarah-i-gryvni/
The amount of cash foreign currency among the population is not recorded at all. It is in US dollars or Euros that Ukrainians keep their savings and corrupt officials take bribes. Also, the price of cars and real estate is determined mainly in US dollars and payments are made in the shadow economy.
The government's response to the crisis was the usual populism. The government has approved the “Cashback on Fuel” program, under which Ukrainians will be able to receive partial compensation for fuel costs purchased at gas stations participating in the program. The cashback will be: 15% for diesel; 10% for gasoline; 5% for autogas. Some gas stations immediately raised prices by the specified percentage. https://www.kmu.gov.ua/news/uriad-ukhvalyv-prohramu-keshbek-na-palne
I am not an economist, so I cannot understand the economic effect of this and other similar programs, but this deepens the conflict between the government and parliament, which has to pass unpopular laws at the request of the IMF, including raising taxes, while the government distributes money to the population. Perhaps that is why the deputies are going to appeal to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine to urgently increase the minimum old-age pension three times to the actual level of the subsistence minimum. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/355873-deputaty-initsiiruyut-povyshenie-minimalnoy-pensii-s-2595-grn-do-7500-grn
The International Monetary Fund raised concern about Ukraine’s ability to continue receiving aid from its $8.1 billion package as lawmakers stall on measures needed to release the financing, its representative said. The Ukrainian parliament has until the end of March to pass a series of legislative amendments that would raise taxes on businesses and households under the latest four-year loan program approved last month. But the lawmakers have so far failed to debate several of the changes requested by the IMF in an expression of defiance against President Volodymyr Zelensky, potentially plunging the parliament into paralysis.
The measures are highly unpopular among the general public in the fifth year of the war, but must be adopted to unlock the rest of the funding. Kyiv has already received $1.5 billion from the latest program. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-17/imf-raises-alarm-over-aid-to-ukraine-with-parliament-in-gridlock
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer discussed a new defense partnership between the two countries during a meeting on Tuesday, March 17. Starmer wrote on social media that they agreed on a new defense partnership between Ukraine and the United Kingdom, which will strengthen Ukraine's ability to defend itself against brutal russian attacks and ensure the readiness of the United Kingdom and its allies to confront future threats. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/356043-zelenskiy-i-starmer-dogovorilis-o-novom-oboronnom-partnerstve-ukrainy-i-britanii
I wonder what happened to the comprehensive Centennial Partnership Agreement between Ukraine and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, signed last year? https://www.president.gov.ua/news/ugoda-pro-storichne-partnerstvo-mizh-ukrayinoyu-ta-spoluchen-95461
Well, two deals are always better than one. After all, they should at least make deals if they can't do anything else that's really useful.
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Trump muses over ‘taking Cuba’ as island’s power grid collapses after weeks of US oil blockade and this once again reminds us of Ukraine's vulnerability in a world where force rules. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/16/americas/cuba-power-grid-collapse-intl-latam
The statement by the Deputy Inspector General of USAID to the US Congress raises the issue of the effectiveness of oversight of the use of budget funds abroad in difficult operating conditions. These are situations where, even with the presence of formalized control procedures and the involvement of international contractors, in practice the possibilities for verifying the use of funds remain limited. "Our recent audit of USAID’s $26 billion in direct budget support to the government of Ukraine revealed that USAID had a severely limited ability to ensure that the government of Ukraine could receive and use the funds as intended. This occurred because the major international contractors USAID hired to support oversight efforts failed to provide required reports on time or, in some cases, at all. This has obvious implications for the effectiveness of said oversight efforts. Nonpermissive environments, particularly those controlled by terrorist organizations, constrain the United States’ ability to effectively execute its foreign assistance programs. For example, most U.S. government personnel face restrictions when traveling outside of a limited “Green Zone” around Kyiv and from entering any part of Gaza." https://www.congress.gov/119/meeting/house/118979/witnesses/HHRG-119-FA17-Wstate-KaplanA-20260317.pdf
It is surprising to observe how the US rhetoric towards Ukraine has changed over the past two years, but given this, the change in attitude towards russia is no longer surprising. Meanwhile russia is the biggest winner of the Iran war. As Washington relaxes the rules to ease the global supply crunch, russia's crude oil sales to India have jumped by 50%. Some estimates say that Moscow could earn up to $5bn (£3.7bn) more by the end of March, and could be on track for its biggest year of fuel-related revenues since 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3wlwnn05zqo
Moscow proposed a quid pro quo to the U.S. under which the Kremlin would stop sharing intelligence information with Iran, such as the precise coordinates of U.S. military assets in the Middle East, if Washington ceased supplying Ukraine with intel about russia. https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-offers-stop-intel-iran-condition-us-cuts-off-ukraine/
EU leaders find themselves incapable of action despite wars so close to home. With conflicts raging in the Middle East and Ukraine, a summit in Brussels merely exposed Europe’s powerlessness. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-find-themselves-incapable-of-action-european-council-summit-wars-ukraine-iran/
Things are also improving in Belarus. US Special Representative for Belarus John Cole announced during a visit to Belarus that sanctions on several Belarusian banks and potash fertilizer companies would be lifted. Cole said restrictions would also be lifted on the Belarusian Ministry of Finance, the Development Bank of Belarus, and Belinvestbank. https://efe.com/en/latest-news/2026-03-19/us-lifts-financial-sanctions-on-belarus/
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on March 20, the day after meeting with US special envoy John Cole, that a "grand deal" with the United States was being prepared. https://www.svaboda.org/a/33711613.html
On the good news, the destruction of a factory that produced weapons in the occupied territories and the damage to an A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft on russian territory have been confirmed. https://uatv.ua/uk/genshtab-zsu-pidtverdyv-urazhennya-litaka-dalnogo-vyyavlennya-a-50-rosiyan/
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reported the destruction of a russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter in the Donetsk region using a fiber-optic drone. This is the first such case during the war. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cvg05j5xdxmo
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All true.
EU leaders’ foot dragging is legendary, but even in the best of circumstances Europe has only modest military resources to assist in a large military action like the war on Iran. They are unlikely to commit those in a situation where the US doesn’t build a coalition or even consult with them prior to commencing hostilities involving vital energy supplies, unless the situation deteriorates drastically.
They must face their voters, and several generations of those have passed knowing only a world where the tough geopolitical problems and risks were handled almost entirely by Uncle Sam. So “wait and see” becomes the safe decision for the moment.
It seems that the US plan to attack Iran was not well thought out - or was constrained by executive meddling - and the campaign is now at least partially in a reactionary mode. Incredibly, Trump stated that the US doesn’t need or want help “from Zelensky” in drone warefare, despite Ukraine currently being the most experienced country in the world.
This doesn’t inspire confidence in allies (or citizens here) whether to engage or support the war. Iran is not Venezuela (or Cuba).
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As for Europe, there is an opinion that russia may take the opportunity to attack the Baltic countries - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and possibly Poland. France and Great Britain are already involved in the war in Iran and are spending their weapons, which are not much anyway, and other countries will not rush to help because the USA, as the basis of NATO, will not intervene either. In addition, due to its dependence on liquefied gas, the supply of which is under threat due to the war in Iran, Europe may be forced to make concessions to russia in order not to be left without gas at all next winter. https://www.ft.com/content/64c5a600-1fc8-4370-b5d6-8a0bc273a33f?syn-25a6b1a6=1
pootin may also attack Europe because of the lack of progress in Ukraine, which may force Europe to reduce aid to Ukraine and cause a new wave of refugees already inside Europe.
As for Trump, his behavior resembles pootin's - he cannot retreat without losing everything, but by dragging the country into big war he can use this as a basis to obtain unlimited powers, up to and including canceling the elections.
I don't think Zelensky can help Trump significantly, especially since it would be humiliating for Trump. Even after sending a couple of hundred soldiers to help the Gulf countries protect them from Iranian drones, Zelensky has already been accused of weakening defenses and because it was because of this that russian drones were able to hit more targets in Ukraine.
In recent days, the energy situation in Ukraine has worsened again and there have been more outages. Also, during the night, a large part of Kyiv lost electricity and water supply due to an equipment failure. Everything was restored by morning, but during an air raid this afternoon, a large warehouse caught fire near Kyiv. https://unn.ua/news/masshtabna-pozhezha-na-skladi-pid-kyievom-okhopyla-5500-kvadratnykh-metriv-zadiiani-desiatky-riatuvalnykiv
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True, the UK and France are involved, but to only small degrees so far, and on defense. They were not involved at the start of this conflict, unlike previous ones where they were in offensive roles from the beginning as part of a coalition (except the Iraq war in which France did not participate).
Notably France has moved about half its navy to the eastern Mediterranean, including their single aircraft carrier (nuclear), to defend allies and interests in the region. So potentially they could become more involved.
Bismarck was concerned about “some damned foolish thing in the Balkans” leading to general war in his time, which it eventually did as WWI. In this era we could replace “Balkans” with “Middle East”. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen this time.
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On the night of March 24, russia launched a massive drone and missile strike on Ukraine. All night, most regions of Ukraine were attacked by drones and ballistic missiles. In the morning, the country was attacked by cruise missiles from Tu-95MS bombers - they flew in from several directions and moved west and towards Kyiv. The drone attack on Ukraine continues during the day, when hundreds of drones headed towards western Ukraine. In total, 948 drones were launched, which set a new record. As a result, there was a lot of destruction throughout the country, people were killed and injured. In the center of Lviv, 17th-century architectural monuments, which are under UNESCO protection, were damaged. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/clyerp57xp0o
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c98me70y27yo
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87wxvn0z3vo
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz90gpyw90wo
It is significant that news from Ukraine no longer occupies the front pages of world media, let alone the war in Iran.
Ukrainian Railway Company announced that it is changing the rules for evacuating passengers en route due to changes in russian attack tactics. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/356663-ukrzaliznytsya-usilivaet-pravila-evakuatsii-passazhirov-v-puti-iz-za-izmeneniya-taktiki-atak-rf Passengers now have the option of burning up on the train if it is hit by a drone or standing next to the train in an open field.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky announced the intensification of the russian offensive over the past four days, the "meaty" assaults of which led to the loss of 6,090 occupiers killed and wounded. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2026/03/23/8026764/
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Unfortunately unsurprising: This prominent article on the front page of the Washington Post today:
“Pentagon considers diverting Ukraine military aid to the Middle East”
Note that this includes diverting aid intended for Ukraine provided by Europe.
“ … the Pentagon notified Congress on Monday that it intended to divert about $750 million in funding provided by NATO countries through the PURL program to restock the U.S. military’s own inventories, rather than to send additional assistance to Ukraine, according to two U.S. officials.”
Gift article
https://wapo.st/4daQt5A
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Yes, this was expected, and together with the delay in funding from Europe, it puts the Ukrainian authorities in an interesting position. Personally, I don’t know how you can fight without money and weapons. The position of Trump and pootin remains unchanged, and Zelensky once again reminded of the pressure of the United States, which will provide guarantees only in exchange for the transfer of the rest of Donbas to russia. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-links-security-guarantees-ukraine-giving-up-donbas-zelenskiy-says-2026-03-25/
In business, there is an approach of recording losses and moving on, which is understandable to Trump and seems acceptable to most Ukrainians. It involves accepting the reality of a situation, learning from the experience, and redirecting energy toward new goals, rather than dwelling on what cannot be recovered. But for Zelensky and his team, it means losing everything and they cannot agree to it.
Back in February the Wall Street Journal's chief European political correspondent Boyan Panchevsky said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has instructed his advisers to develop a detailed military action plan for the next three years. According to him, Zelensky allegedly reported that negotiations to resolve the conflict had actually failed, and now the country needed to prepare for a protracted war. https://www.unian.ua/politics/zhurnalist-wsj-zayaviv-shcho-zelenskiy-gotuyetsya-voyuvati-shche-tri-roki-yak-vidreaguvali-v-op-13292205.html
Interestingly, the Office of the President then denied this, but since then things have only gotten worse for Ukraine. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-op-perehovory-viyna/33683327.html
Due to the war in Iran, Europe will likely be forced to look for ways to restore gas supplies from russia, which could completely change its attitude towards Ukraine, which will become an obstacle to this by continuing to fight.
Despite Ukraine's successes on the battlefield, which continues to hold the front line and damage russia's oil industry (at least 40% of russia's oil export capacity halted, Reuters calculations show), the global situation depends on its partners and allies. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/least-40-russias-oil-export-capacity-halted-reuters-calculations-show-2026-03-25/
russian aggression against Ukraine and the US military operation against Iran are gradually turning into one big war, with coalitions of states fighting on both sides, writes the British newspaper The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/26/converging-wars-leave-europe-panicked-and-putin-emboldened/
Former commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny, in an article titled "Only the Dead Will See the End of the War," notes: "I have to disappoint everyone. Today it is impossible to predict and forecast the course and options for the end of this war." https://nv.ua/ukr/opinion/zaluzhniy-poperediv-pro-2-naslidki-koli-zakinchitsya-viyna-v-ukrajini-i-shcho-nam-zaraz-potribno-50592541.html
He also compares the war in Ukraine with the war in Iran and points out the impossibility of a quick US victory in Iran, just as the russians were unable to do in 2022 in Ukraine. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/21/ukraine-war-tells-us-about-iran-conflict/
In addition to external problems, a power crisis is developing in Ukraine due to the loss of control over parliament. The Chairman of the Finance Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Danylo Hetmantsev, during his speech, stated that in 2025 Ukraine did not fulfill 14 indicators of the Ukraine Facility program and because of this did not receive €3.9 billion - part of these funds has already been lost. According to him, financing from the World Bank, a €90 billion loan and funds under the IMF program are also under threat. Source: https://censor.net/ua/n3607225
Also, addressing his party members, he said that they were chosen by God. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2By1kCHZsmc
Hetmantsev also stated that employers should pay contributions for refusing to hire people with disabilities. In addition to taxes, the state is also trying to shift the problem of disabled people onto business. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/356471-rabotodateli-obyazany-uplachivat-vznosy-za-otkaz-nanimat-lyudey-s-invalidnostyu-odnako-pravila-do-sikh-por-nechetkie-getmantsev
So the only available resource for the government remains the Ukrainians, who are unlikely to recognize its godhood. On March 25, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on training citizens for national resistance. The document provides for the creation of special training centers. The law also introduces new subjects in schools and the impossibility of being a civil servant for those who have not completed military service. https://sud.ua/uk/news/laws/355586-v-ukraine-sozdadut-spetsialnye-tsentry-podgotovki-k-natssoprotivleniyu
But the main tool of mobilization remains brute force, which provokes resistance, increasingly armed. To which the police respond with criminal prosecution.
https://cheline.com.ua/news/society/masova-sutichka-z-politsiyeyu-u-chernigovi-498418
https://www.facebook.com/reel/26231254816539298
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1692250081936828
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DWH4wZwgmbg/
https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/356779-v-ternopole-muzhchina-ugrozhal-ttsk-toporom-i-brosil-v-nikh-kokteyl-molotova
A little more and we will see how the state will prescribe a longer prison term for the desire to live than for premeditated murder. But it seems futile to hope that the authorities will honestly consider why people do not see the point of dying in an unsuccessful war. That is why the state has not yet come up with a rational explanation of what is the point of a person without rights laying down his life for a country that is being transformed into a hybrid authoritarianism crammed with sky-high illusions.
Standing in one place until death cannot be presented as a success, because this precisely falls under the category of a “stationary meat grinder” (Zaluzhny’s term). And the looting and arrogance of the top leadership on an unimaginable scale make national self-sacrifice impossible. To continue to brazenly pretend that a country can fight forever is not even self-deception, but intent. A fundamental change in discourse is needed. A sober justification of the goals for which a person should die is needed, not a cruel criminalization of the right to live. We need to work with the causes, not fight the consequences.
And so far, Ukraine is leading in violations at the ECHR due to a systemic crisis of justice. The European Court of Human Rights has published its annual report for 2025. The statistics raise serious concerns about Ukraine's compliance with its convention obligations. Ukraine received the largest number of violation decisions among all participating states - 160 findings of violations out of 164 decisions issued. https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/d/echr/annual-report-2025-eng
I also recently heard a joke that the Security Service of Ukraine deals with those who are dissatisfied with the government, and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau deals with those who are satisfied with the government.
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russia has been carrying out a massive drone attack on Ukraine throughout the evening of March 28, as well as during the night and morning of March 29. Initially, they struck Starokostiantyniv, where the largest military airfield is located, with a Kinzhal aeroballistic missile. Then all the night, drones attacked all regions in wave after wave. In the morning, drones targeted Kyiv and then continued toward western Ukraine again. According to the Air Force, russia used a Kinzhal aeroballistic missile and 442 strike UAVs, of which 380 drones were successfully shot down. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/czxr7249egxo
In response, Ukraine is attacking russia's oil industry with drones, including once again attacking the port of Ust-Luga - one of the largest russian ports on the Baltic Sea and a key hub for the export of russian oil products, located about 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/droni-znovu-atakuvali-rosiyskiy-port-ust-1774763962.html
As the Ukrainian strikes continue, the russian government is poised to reintroduce a ban on gasoline exports, according to state news agency TASS. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/28/europe/ukraine-attacks-russia-oil-intl
Unfortunately, Ukrainian attacks are still not powerful enough to cause significant damage to russia and force it to reconsider its attitude towards the war.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of lying over US demands and voiced openness to diverting weapons from Kyiv to support the US attack on Iran. Mr Zelensky had said in an interview the United States was pressing Ukraine to give up the eastern Donbas region to russia, which invaded four years ago, before finalising any post-war security guarantees to Kyiv. "That's a lie," Mr Rubio told reporters when asked about Mr Zelensky's remarks. https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2026/0327/1565584-us-ukraine/
Weapons and their sale are a huge business and a political tool, which is why the comment by Armin Papperger, president of the German defense concern Rheinmetall, who compared Ukrainian drone production companies to "housewives" who make weapons in their kitchens, caused a great resonance. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/mar/30/ukrainians-chide-german-defense-boss-comments-lego-drones-made/
Personally, I do not understand what offended some Ukrainians so much, who themselves, a couple of years ago, were spreading hype about the artisanal production of drones and were proud that housewives make drones in their kitchens. Now many believe that it was precisely such a state policy that later led to the lag behind russia in drone production, which has established mass industrial production of a small number of drone types. This led to a significant reduction in costs, an increase in their production, improved quality and other advantages of standardization.
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The Ukrainian president's trip to the Persian Gulf countries, where he tried to sell Ukraine's help in the fight against Iranian drones, has ended. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/ukraine-closes-mideast-deals-help-counter-iranian-drones-2026-03-27/
Of course, this causes an ambiguous reaction from Ukrainians, who do not believe that they are well enough protected, and next winter they really risk being left without energy, heating and water. The consequences of the trip can be concluded that Ukraine can no longer be considered the only victim of a war with the attention of the whole world to itself. Also, the bold desire to continue fighting at any cost means that Ukraine is turning from a victim into a full-fledged party to the war with the corresponding consequences, and requires not populism, but a rational approach taking into account the real situation, and not invented unattainable goals. The status of a commercial participant in the arms market during an unresolved and stalemate domestic war is not so much beneficial to the country as to the beneficiaries of weapons production and exports. And this has already led to the fact that allies will no longer give Ukraine certain types of weapons, directly referring to the fact that Ukraine independently produces and even sells everything it needs. Moreover, it calls into question the need to help Ukraine as a whole. Also, the claim to high expertise in anti-drone defense does not correlate well with regular hits by russian drones even deep in the Ukrainian rear.
Satellite imagery and verified videos show Ukraine has repeatedly struck key russian oil export infrastructure near the Baltic Sea in the past week, leaving some facilities burning for several days. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qdwpnwzwpo
But the war in Iran has led to the fact that russian oil prices are rising and compensating for its losses from the Ukrainian strikes. Overall, the shortage and rising cost of energy will inevitably put pressure on Ukraine's import-dependent economy. Ukraine is at risk of a significant diesel fuel shortage of about 90%. Against this backdrop, the authorities are negotiating with Middle Eastern countries regarding fuel supplies, President Volodymyr Zelensky said. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/357018-v-ukraine-vozmozhen-defitsit-dizelnogo-topliva-na-90-zelenskiy-predlozhil-vykhod
Unlike the Ukrainian government, which introduced cashback, the Polish government reduced VAT and excise duty on fuel, which made it possible to lower prices, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. https://www.pap.pl/aktualnosci/ceny-paliw-w-polsce-jest-zapowiedz-premiera
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After a large-scale drone attack on the night of March 31 to April 1, russia again launched hundreds of drones flying to western Ukraine and attacking the central regions. People have died again, homes and factories have been destroyed, and most importantly, energy facilities, which is why the whole country is suffering.
https://babel.ua/news/125934-rosiyani-atakuvali-ukrajinu-339-dronami-skilki-zbila-ppo
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c5yx83v8l78o
In addition to the usual blackouts, there are power outages in Kyiv, which causes water shortages in a number of areas and disruptions in transport. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/357004-v-kieve-pereboi-so-svetom-bez-vody-neskolko-rayonov-chastichno-ostanavlivalos-metro-i-transport
Ukraine is losing important time to prepare for the next heating season due to the delay in receiving a loan from the European Union, Zelensky said. https://today.ua/488428-kritichna-zatrimka-ukrayina-proterminuvala-pochatok-pidgotovki-do-nastupnogo-opalyuvalnogo-sezonu-cherez-zablokovani-90-mlrd-yevro/
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On the morning of April 3, russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine with drones and missiles, and the entire country was on alert. Most of the drones attacked central Ukraine - Kyiv and the cities around the capital, but some of the drones flew west towards Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia. After 10 a.m., cruise missiles launched from Tu-95MS bombers flew into Ukraine.
According to the Air Force, today air defense systems shot down/suppressed 541 targets – 26 missiles and 515 drones of various types: 24 Kh-101 cruise missiles; 2 Iskander-K cruise missiles; 515 enemy UAVs of various types. Hits of 11 missiles and 27 strike drones were recorded at 20 locations. Emergency power outages again in Kyiv and throughout Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cjr9lqr9n87o
https://mind.ua/news/20303235-u-kievi-zaprovadili-ekstreni-vidklyuchennya-svitla-pislya-masovanoyi-ataki
Lately, I've been writing almost nothing about fighting on the front and the drones or single missiles that destroy something or kill someone every day throughout Ukraine, because it has long become ordinary. The news that Ukrainian drones have occasionally attacked something somewhere in russia also seems to have long failed to make much of an impression on either Ukrainians or russians. It seems that this is of interest only to those who follow the news of the General Staff every day, while the attention of the majority is occupied with more immediate things such as the lack of money and rising prices. Even the spread of resistance to mobilization, which the authorities explain exclusively by the influence of russian propaganda, is not so significant that anything changes in state policy. Although yesterday there was a unique case when a customs officer stabbed an employee of the mobilization center. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2026/04/02/8028401/
https://westnews.info/news/U-Lvovi-zatrimali-inspektora-mitnici-za-pidozroyu-u-vbivstvi-vijskovogo-TCK.html
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cdxkl57z6wyo
The Ministry of Defense has once again announced yet another change, which no one believes. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/minoboroni-anonsuvalo-zmini-mobilizatsiyi-1775148182.html
In all other cases, everything usually ends only with bodily injuries for all participants. https://glavnoe.in.ua/news/u-harkovi-natovp-zupynyv-bus-tczk-i-zvilnyv-cholovika-vylamavshy-dveri
https://www.facebook.com/reel/26239712825687371
Also, dozens of Ukrainian men have been deported by ICE. Some were sent straight to the military, writes CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/27/europe/ukrainians-deported-ice-military-draft-intl-cmd
Meanwhile, former spokeswoman for the President of Ukraine Yulia Mendel recalled that Volodymyr Zelenskyy evaded military service 4 times. "Volodymyr Zelenskyy is often compared to Winston Churchill. Few differences just missing. Winston Churchill fought in the Cuban War (1895), Malakand Campaign (1897), Sudan (1898), Boer War (1899-1900), and on the Western Front in WWI. He earned numerous campaign medals. Volodymyr Zelenskyy evaded military service four times when he was called up before he took office. What would Churchill say, what would he say...", she wrote on the social network X. https://x.com/IuliiaMendel/status/2038339410953900086
https://censor.net/ua/news/3608042/mendel-nagadala-scho-zelenskyyi-uhylyavsya-vid-viyiskovoyi-slujby
Opposition MP Oleksiy Honcharenko made a calculation based on official information from the Ministry of Defense regarding the number of Russian military personnel involved in hostilities in Ukraine, according to which the Ukrainian army has about 1 million people, while the Russian group has 700 thousand. At the same time, the military reports that the enemy has a 3-5 times superiority in manpower in different parts of the front, which indicates a discrepancy. The MP suggests that a significant part of the million Ukrainian army exists only “on paper”, or these are people who are limitedly suitable or involved in schemes when a person is counted in the army, but is not actually there. According to his calculations, about 200 thousand people are actually fighting on the front line. At the same time, about 46,000 people work in the mobilization system, of which Honcharenko proposes sending some of the suitable mobilization employees to the front, instead of “storming” cities. He also speaks of the need to choose the path of motivation instead of coercion. The main proposal is to create decent conditions: a really high salary for those on the front lines, clear terms of service, effective social programs (for example, a preferential mortgage after 2 years of service). According to Honcharenko, thanks to good conditions and a social package, it is possible to recruit 300,000 motivated volunteers without resorting to harsh coercive measures, and the rest of the citizens should work for the economy and the military-industrial complex. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDE_hIDzzb4
All this sounds great, if not for the question of why he, as a deputy, is not doing anything to implement all these wonderful ideas, because he already has the opportunity to introduce relevant bills and work on their adoption.
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After a hard week, everyone hopes to sleep longer, but the damned russian drones with their disgusting buzzing like giant mosquitoes and shooting at them woke me up before dawn. In recent days, attacks have continued daily and this is a bad sign, despite the good statistics of their downing. Especially since some of them hit somewhere, killing people and destroying infrastructure, production facilities and housing. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp869m2gzr0o
https://trueua.info/news/rankoviy-obstril-kieva-ryatuvalniki-zagasili-pozhezhu-i-pokazali-foto-naslidkiv
According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, over the past month, 5,935 UAVs and missiles were neutralized, namely:
Shahed drones and others - 6,463 UAV launches were recorded, 5,833 units were intercepted. The effectiveness was 90.25%;
Cruise and ballistic missiles - 138 missiles were recorded, 102 units were intercepted. The effectiveness was almost 74%.
The overall interception rate of air targets in March reached 89.9%.
https://mod.gov.ua/news/ukrainska-ppo-u-berezni-perekhopyla-ponad-90-droniv
Also, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in March the enemy used 7,987 guided aerial bombs (GABs). This is more than 1,500 (approximately 20%) more than the "record" February for this indicator. https://mod.gov.ua/news/u-berezni-rosijska-armiya-zastosuvala-najbilshu-z-pochatku-roku-kilkist-ka-biv
But the authorities, as always, tend to embellish reality, creating the false impression that everything is fine. Ukraine’s front line is in its strongest position for nearly a year, Volodymyr Zelensky has said, citing MI6 intelligence. www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/03/ukraine-is-in-its-strongest-position-for-nearly-a-year/
But in fact, in March, russia occupied 27% more territory than in February — 160 sq km. https://t.me/DeepStateUA/23359 Even if we recall Zelensky's statement in March that since the beginning of the year Ukraine has liberated 460 square kilometers of territory, in fact, 245 (January) + 126 (February) + 160 (March) = 531 square kilometers were occupied by russia, that is, the overall result is negative for Ukraine. https://lb.ua/society/2026/03/03/725332_zelenskiy_vid_pochatku_roku.html On the other hand, the fate of a couple of completely destroyed villages is unlikely to fundamentally change anything.
But if we talk about the war of attrition that Zelensky and company are fiercely fighting, it is worth considering at whose expense it is being waged. Zelensky is publicly pressuring parliament because Ukraine needs $52 billion in external financing this year. At risk is more than $3.9 billion from the Ukraine Facility (an EU support program for Ukraine) and another $3.35 billion from the World Bank if the necessary laws are not voted on. The vote is scheduled for April 7-8. www.reuters.com/world/zelenskiy-urges-lawmakers-act-ukraine-funding-hangs-balance-2026-04-03
For the week of March 30-April 3, 2026, the file of the National Bank of Ukraine's intervention results shows a sale of USD 888.45 million and a purchase of USD 0. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets/currency-market
The only good news is that Ukraine has received a grant from Japan totaling nearly USD 1.3 billion. The funds were provided under the G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration for Ukraine (ERA) mechanism through the World Bank’s PEACE in Ukraine project (“Public Expenditures for Administrative Capacity Endurance”). mof.gov.ua/en/news/ukraine_attracts_a_nearly_13_billion_grant__the_second_tranche_from_japan_under_the_g7_era_mechanism-5661
A strong economy is not a consequence of victory, but one of the main components of this victory, emphasized Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo Budanov during a meeting of the Council for Entrepreneurship Support with the participation of government and business representatives, Ukrinform writes. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/4108487-budanov-na-radi-z-pidtrimki-pidpriemnictva-treba-vidkrivati-biznesu-novi-mozlivosti-a-ne-stvoruvav-bareri.html
Unfortunately, declarations do not make the economy stronger.
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Yesterday was such a busy day that I didn’t even have time to write a couple of posts.
My colleagues and I decided to establish a new law firm and resolving all the organizational issues takes a lot of time - discussions, working on the website, etc. But this brings me closer to my goal of having a powerful tool and platform for attracting investments in Ukraine and getting the opportunity to participate in it as a legal advisor. Success in this project will not only provide me with a job, but will also be my modest contribution to the development of Ukraine.
Seva was hired by KPMG, so I will have someone to turn to for advice on various related issues.
Kate returned from France where she took part in another MUN, this time representing Ukraine. This trip was made possible thanks to the extraordinary support of Cicely, and Kate, in addition to participating in the conference, also spent a wonderful week in the south of France communicating with her family. Kate is also already preparing for the next conference and dreams of becoming the organizer of the MUN conference at her own lyceum.
All this is exhausting, but it lifts the spirit and inspires you to keep working. In any case, it's better than doing nothing, feeling sorry for yourself and blaming everyone around you like too many people around you do.
I have to monitor my health closely and I plan to see my doctor again next month to check my condition. My treatment may need to be adjusted. At least the nighttime drone attacks won't wake me up in the middle of the night for a while, which is very good. But for example, in Odesa, houses were destroyed again and people were killed and injured. https://www.dsnews.ua/ukr/politics/ataka-na-odesu-u-misti-zavershili-ryatuvalni-roboti-06042026-456809
russia is changing its war tactics in Ukraine, clearly trying to exhaust air defenses as American Patriot missiles may become scarce due to the US war in Iran, The Times writes. This is happening, among other things, due to attacks during the day recently. https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/air-defences-iran-war-trump-latest-c9rkpktm7?t=1775382062140
Zelensky also says that support for Ukraine is decreasing, including the possibility of running out of anti-aircraft missiles for Patriots, whose supplies are already depleted. https://apnews.com/article/zelenskyy-russia-ukraine-iran-patriot-missiles-584e73848c0ca1008824c399b8026487
It seems to me that Ukraine has passed the point of no return and there will be no more good future for which those idealists who still remain continue to fight. Others will fight for some time for the possibility of the regime, which has long lost the support of the people, to retain power, but no one will give the regime the resources for this anymore.
It looks like it was not only the Ukrainian authorities that were unable to reach an agreement with society regarding mobilization. Uproar in Germany over law requiring men get military approval for long stays abroad. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/05/uproar-germany-law-men-up-to-45-military-permission-long-stays-abroad
In Ukraine, everyone is waiting for the mobilization reform that the new Minister of Defense is supposed to present, but I don't believe that anything will change significantly. After all, if the authorities really wanted to change something, then even at the expense of the police, which consists of healthy people trained in weapons, those who have already taken the oath, they could do two full rotations with the demobilization of those 300 thousand who are actually fighting in the army. But everyone understands perfectly well that the police received exemption from military service in exchange for loyalty. Also, if they don't catch people on the streets, they will join the army themselves.
Zelensky has promised to intensify the persecution of deserters https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2026/04/03/8028643/ , and cases of armed resistance during mobilization are also increasing. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/357613-v-vinnitse-muzhchina-nozhom-ranil-dvukh-voennosluzhaschikh-ttsk-odin-iz-nikh-v-reanimatsii
Although the ombudsman occasionally reports an increase in complaints, it seems to have no effect. According to him, most often people report groundless detention, beatings, deprivation of legal aid, and formal medical examinations. "It is critical to agree on the grounds for deferring conscription and for exemption from military service, in particular for those who were illegally mobilized," Lubinets stressed. He also added that the rights of veterans in Ukraine are also violated. In particular, this concerns the too-long recognition of disability, the lack of housing, and the illegal restriction of pensions. https://mobilizatsiya.novyny.live/u-ponad-340-raziv-lubinenets-pro-zrostannia-kilkosti-skarg-na-ttsk-319952.html
He published the results of a monitoring visit to the Uzhhorod District Mobilization Center, where systemic human rights violations were discovered. Despite obstruction by officials, the visit documented the facts of prolonged illegal detention of people — from 21 to 50 days without proper legal grounds.
According to the Ombudsman's Office, documents and mobile phones were confiscated from people in the center without registration, which deprived them of the opportunity to protect themselves. Among the detainees was a veteran with a combat veteran's certificate, who was not released despite his appropriate status.
The monitoring also recorded inadequate conditions of detention. In particular, there were only a few dishes for 40–60 people, which forced people to use them in turns without proper processing. There is only one toilet and shower in the room for such a number of people, and there is no bed linen.
The Ombudsman also highlighted problems with medical care. According to him, the center ignored obvious health problems of detainees. One of the men with critically high blood pressure received help only after the intervention of a representative of the ombudsman - he was hospitalized in a life-threatening condition. https://sud.ua/uk/news/video/357616-antisanitariya-i-ignorirovanie-bolezney-v-uzhgorodskom-ttsk-zafiksirovali-narusheniya-prav-cheloveka-foto
This is exactly the attitude towards future defenders, but as soon as they die, they immediately become heroes and can expect a flag on their grave.
An article recently appeared in Economic Truth where journalists attempted to assess the scale of corruption in the field of mobilization. https://epravda.com.ua/power/korupciya-v-tck-yak-pracyuyut-shemi-uhilennya-vid-mobilizaciji-v-ukrajini-820103/
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Hey Wlad,
I'm glad you have a strong focus for your company. It will take up much of your otherwise "idle time." The bonus is that is it something you begin to build, then, if you are lucky, continues to build after its birth. I wish you a 1000x success in this endeavor!
I get very good insight on the war from a person called Anna from Ukraine -- I hope that is the correct spelling. A local radio station DJ arranges to have Anna on her show, live. Last week, Anna gave a very good update. When the show was over, I called the DJ and we talked for a few minutes. I am going to mentor her once she earns her amateur radio license, but I called her about possibly having Anna on her show every week. She told me that Anna is too busy, and that she is lucky to get her on about every six weeks. I don't follow "social media" but I guess Anna is very busy on that and many other interviews around the world.. Anyway, I'm glad she can join the local radio show every six weeks -- her insights keep many of us informed about all that is happening in Ukraine, and she is very candid.
Our local idiot pseudo-king has managed to cause every US citizen to deal with massive cost increases for gasoline, diesel and heating fuels. Our food bills are at least 25% higher, and more if you live in a rural area. Rents have gone out of control. The worst part is, he still opens his mouth and speaks, proving to all who are unfortunate enough to hear him, to realize how stupid and dangerous he is.
The nazis are doing their best to undo all the safe-guards The People put into place, especially after the Nixon crimes in the White House. Now most of his cheer leaders refuse to talk about our situation -- they are finally realizing how big a mistake they made in the voting booths.
I do my level best to remain positive. I feel lucky to be right where I am. I have farmers growing good food and many good friends and neighbors.
Obi, the youngest cat, has continued to change and grow. He loves to snuggle, and now he waits for his official OBI HUGS. He just kind of melts when I pick him up and give him a hug. I was so impressed when I checked my security camera yesterday. Obi let a big dog walk by and he didn't attack it! Now THAT is some serious personal growth! :)
Stay well, be strong.
73
Jaye
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I'm glad you have a strong focus for your company. It will take up much of your otherwise "idle time." The bonus is that is it something you begin to build, then, if you are lucky, continues to build after its birth. I wish you a 1000x success in this endeavor!
Hi Jaye! Thank you! Nice to see you here!
There is probably no good time to start, but I choose not to just wait for opportunities, but to create them myself as much as possible. Although I have the support of partners, I have to do many things myself, especially when it comes to the website. They don’t even fully understand my idea and scale, and lawyers are usually very conservative when it comes to using artificial intelligence, so this is again my area of responsibility. On the one hand, I understand what opportunities this opens up and how it will save time in the future, but right now I am spending time to figure it out and learn how to use AI correctly. This learning process will be endless, but at least it is interesting and gives me an advantage over other colleagues. As always, you have to pay for everything, and the recent workload, along with the bad weather, has knocked me off my feet again and I'm feeling bad.
I get very good insight on the war from a person called Anna from Ukraine -- I hope that is the correct spelling. A local radio station DJ arranges to have Anna on her show, live. Last week, Anna gave a very good update. When the show was over, I called the DJ and we talked for a few minutes. I am going to mentor her once she earns her amateur radio license, but I called her about possibly having Anna on her show every week. She told me that Anna is too busy, and that she is lucky to get her on about every six weeks. I don't follow "social media" but I guess Anna is very busy on that and many other interviews around the world.. Anyway, I'm glad she can join the local radio show every six weeks -- her insights keep many of us informed about all that is happening in Ukraine, and she is very candid.
It's great that there are voices that remind us of Ukraine, although war is an individual experience for everyone.
Obi, the youngest cat, has continued to change and grow. He loves to snuggle, and now he waits for his official OBI HUGS. He just kind of melts when I pick him up and give him a hug. I was so impressed when I checked my security camera yesterday. Obi let a big dog walk by and he didn't attack it! Now THAT is some serious personal growth! :)
Glad to hear that! I also think about another hamster from time to time, but I don't want him to suffer, or get sick and die from the cold.
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The bad weather and the cold snap have made the house damp and cold again. At night I heard explosions during the drone attack, but in the afternoon the sun came out and things weren't so bad. https://vechirniy.kyiv.ua/news/125791/
In April, when one might have expected a certain "respite" from power outages between an extremely difficult winter and a traditionally difficult summer, long "blackouts" began again in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c2evp9mn00no The reason this time was government regulation of electricity prices, which led to more power outages than after the russian bombings. It's so reminiscent of Cuba.
In this regard, I was very interested in watching an interview with the head of the presidential office, Kyrylo Budanov, at a meeting with the CEO Club, which was attended by representatives of Ukrainian business. This meeting showed the boundless gulf between him and business. Not a single question from business representatives regarding state policy in general, and the most painful issues regarding energy and mobilization, received a direct answer. Instead, he advised business to solve its problems on its own and work harder. It is significant that in his new civilian position for 100 days he continues to wear his military uniform, which directly demonstrates his level and attitude to everything. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/kirilo-budanov-v-ofisi-prezidenta-rozmistivsya-v-kolishnomu-kabineti-druga-zelenskogo-50599178.html
But I can understand why a person who spent his entire life in the army does not understand that business cannot be forced to be effective by order without appropriate resources, and that business will simply leave the country if it does not make economic sense. This was already the case under the communists 100 years ago, when their policy of fighting without taking the economy into account led to devastation and famine. With a wry smile, he answered the question about what the government would do if it did not receive 90 billion from the West - they have other options, but they hope to get this money. Perhaps this is due to pressure on deputies, who were forced to vote for at least some of the laws necessary to obtain this loan, as the IMF insisted on. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cvg04rpl6x4o
He also confirmed that this government does not plan to change the approach to mobilization either. So the intention to sacrifice the population is once again confirmed. Interestingly, he began to lose his usual composure and poise, reacting nervously to awkward questions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cfbjk_lM13k&t
Anyway, I understand that I am not alone in wanting to try to help maintain/restore what is left of Ukraine as opposed to those who like to fight with other people's hands at someone else's expense, and this gives me the strength not to give up and continue working to preserve Ukrainian business and attract investment.
Budanov also sees progress toward a potential peace deal with the Kremlin, adding that a resolution to the war may not take long to achieve. “They all understand the war needs to end. That’s why they are negotiating,” Budanov said in an April 4 interview with Bloomberg. “I don’t think it will be long.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-10/zelenskiy-s-top-aide-sees-ukraine-nearing-a-deal-with-putin
Maybe he knows a lot more than I do, which gives him reason to make such assumptions, but I'm cautious about it.
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The advantage of being busy is that you don't have time to pay attention to what's happening around you. Even airstrikes at night don't wake you up unless there are loud explosions nearby. Despite the relative decrease in activity, russia continues to send hundreds of drones and missiles. On April 14, five people were killed and 25 were injured in a russian attack on the Dnipro. On the night of April 15, russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine with drones and ballistic missiles. Several regions were hit at once. There were deaths, injuries, and significant destruction. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cvg00936rywo
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cg733exdxj3o
Some believe that the decrease in the number of russian attacks on Ukraine is due to the fact that they are accumulating forces to attack the Baltic countries. Drafted by the Baltic Defense Initiative, a small think tank based in Vilnius, the scenario exposes specific vulnerabilities of the Lithuanian defense posture, with the aim to plug gaps as soon as possible. Drawing on lessons from the Iran war, a study shows how russia could force Lithuania into capitulation in 90 days with no soldiers crossing the border. “The U.S. is 18 months drained into the Iran war with empty stocks,” the study continues. “At 11 a.m., russia launches a devastating attack on Lithuania’s government with hypersonic missiles, followed by the launch of +170,000 Shahed drones over the next 60 days that completely flatten Vilnius — destroying every bridge, every power plant, every hospital, every water treatment facility in the country.” The think tank says its scenario is constructed entirely from verified weapon system capabilities, observed production rates for military equipment such as drones, and documented global political trends. “On Day 90, Moscow issues an ultimatum: all three Baltic states accept russian occupation — or Riga and Tallinn are next,” the Baltic Defense Initiative report states. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/04/13/study-suggests-russia-could-conquer-baltic-states-in-90-days/
I hope that this is one of those gloomy predictions that will not come true, and that the decrease in russian attacks is due solely to the losses of drones and missiles that the Ukrainian army is causing. Ukraine launched more cross-border attack drones than russia in a one-month period for the first time since the start of the ongoing war in 2022, according to daily data published by the Ukrainian Air Force and russian Ministry of Defense, which was analyzed by ABC News.
russia's defense ministry reported downing 7,347 Ukrainian drones during March, the highest monthly total ever reported by Moscow and an average of 237 craft each day. The defense ministry only publishes figures of Ukrainian drones it claims were shot down.
Ukraine's air force, meanwhile, said its forces faced 6,462 russian drones and 138 missiles of various types across the course of the month, of which 5,833 drones and 102 missiles -- around 90% of drones and just under 74% of missiles -- were intercepted or suppressed. https://abcnews.com/International/ukraine-outshoots-russia-cross-border-drone-war-1st/story?id=131645399
Unfortunately, these numbers do not reflect the extent of the damage caused, but they are quite encouraging.
russia’s oil windfall from Middle East war keeps growing. Key export blend Urals sold at Russia’s western ports averaged $106.30 a barrel in the first 13 days of April, according to Argus Media, whose data is used by Moscow to calculate oil taxes. That’s a 42% jump from March, when prices were also pushed higher by the escalating conflict.
Moscow has emerged as a winner from the war as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz throttles Middle East energy supplies and upends global markets. The turmoil has lifted the price of Urals well above the $59 a barrel assumed in russia’s 2026 budget — a gain anticipated by the government last month when it stepped up spending. The boost to russian coffers is particularly visible when prices are calculated in the local currency, as the hike means more rubles for each taxed barrel. While the country is reaping benefits from the war in the Middle East, it’s also continuing to suffer repeated Ukrainian strikes on its oil infrastructure, which could undermine its recent windfall. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-14/russia-s-oil-windfall-from-middle-east-war-keeps-growing
Meanwhile, Hungary has held elections in which Viktor Orban has been defeated. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9vg782kx7o At the same time, comments from his successor do not add clarity to future policies. Hungary’s incoming Prime Minister Peter Magyar said he expects outgoing premier Viktor Orban to lift his veto on a €90 billion ($106 billion) European Union loan to Ukraine once oil flows through a key pipeline are restored.
Magyar’s comments in an interview for the state television on Wednesday came after he said earlier this week that his country won’t stand in the way of Kyiv obtaining the assistance. Hungary would still maintain its opt-out from participating in the loan financially, he said. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-15/hungary-s-orban-to-clear-kyiv-loan-once-oil-flows-magyar-says
Balazs Ujvari, European Commission Spokesperson, said that the first payments should begin in the second quarter of this year. https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/media/video/I-287653
According to the results of 2025, the inflow of foreign direct investment amounted to $2.279 billion, which is 43.3% less than in 2024 ($4.018 billion). This was written in the telegram channel by the Head of the Tax Committee Danylo Getmantsev, referring to data from KPMG in Ukraine. But a careful analysis of these deals shows that they are often backed by Ukrainian owners who use their foreign companies for investments. https://minfin.com.ua/ua/2026/02/25/168879610/
The head of the presidential office, Kyrylo Budanov, has recently begun to appear a lot in public, which has again given rise to speculation about his political ambitions. In Ukraine, among other things, attention was drawn to how he and his wife celebrated Orthodox Easter this year, although last year he lit a menorah celebrating Jewish Pesach. This once again proves that he is indiscriminate in what can lead to success, it remains to be understood what success is for him. In addition to loyalty to Zelensky, he owes his rapid growth to external support, the main thing is that he does not become a Ukrainian Pinochet. In one of his recent interviews with Bloomberg, he has expressed admiration for Napoleon Bonaparte, citing his "extraordinary" achievements as a military campaigner and political figure. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-14/ukraine-zelenskiy-s-new-chief-aide-budanov-is-on-the-rise
I'm not sure that Ukrainians have the same demand for a "strong hand" as russians, but if during the elections, along with supporting a candidate who offers to fight, people received a draft to the army, it would definitely influence their choice. It remains to be hoped that Budanov will prove to be a successful negotiator with the russians, and the terms of peace will be no worse than those that Poroshenko was able to obtain in 2014-2015.
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russia launched more than 700 drones and missiles at Ukraine in multiple waves overnight, killing at least 18 people in what local officials said was the deadliest attack in months. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm29plylqnvo
The house shook from the arrival of ballistic missiles, but as usual nothing was heard about the places of impact except for civilian objects. Nevertheless, at least the water and electricity did not disappear, which is already pleasing. Because of the noise, I did not sleep for almost the whole night and my hopes for stabilizing the pressure and reducing the medication were again not fulfilled.
Nevertheless, I was able to hold a couple of good meetings and my project is slowly moving forward.
Also today Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky received the International Four Freedoms Award in Middelburg, Netherlands. The awards are based on U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 1941 “Four Freedoms” speech, which outlined freedom of speech, freedom of worship, freedom from want, and freedom from fear. https://nltimes.nl/2026/04/16/president-zelensky-receives-top-four-freedoms-award-ukraines-war-time-resistance
Comments have already appeared in Ukraine that this award is actually for four unfreedoms: 1) restrictions on freedom of movement (closed borders), 2) elimination of personal integrity (busification), 3) elimination of voting rights (cancelled elections), 4) persecution of critics of the regime (reduction of freedom of speech). Personally, I am reminded of Orwell again. Perhaps Trump also really deserves the Nobel Peace Prize...
The idea of introducing forced labor is also being actively discussed in Ukraine. https://borgexpert.com/news/skandal-iz-trudovoiu-mobilizatsiieiu-chy-zahrozhuiut-ukraintsiam-prymusovi-roboty
Given all this, it is not surprising that the song "Sky in a Concentration Camp" has gained more than 500 thousand views in three weeks. Its lyrics reflect the sad reality:
He knocks down a man on the move with a bus, a man riding a bicycle,
the enforcers from the bus fly out, grab the boy, go to the mobilization center.
In the basement, tortured people are kept tied to radiators,
And those who did not live to see the medical commission, they will write that he fell himself.
Black shirts, cops, why not at the front?
There is no reprieve, pixelated uniforms, torture is the norm, sitting in the basement is the norm, reform.
While the dictator is withering from the green, the guys are lying in the Tysa River, shot in the back.
The criminal power is waiting for donations and bribes, I see the sky through a cage in a concentration camp,
Two murderers and two flags,
Two dictators who will not agree,
They told Vasya that it is your duty,
to put your soul and body in the morgue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_wd0oX1n_4&list=RDa_wd0oX1n_4&start_radio=1
It's probably time to simplify everything and change a couple of laws enough to give cops the right to detain/beat people without reason or explanation and take them to a mobilization center, whose workers, in turn, should be given the right to keep draft evaders in basements without any time limit. The medical commission can be abolished altogether, because if someone saw the door and raised their hand to open it and was able to move their legs to leave the house, then they are already physically healthy enough and fit to die for Ukraine. They can also read and translate about the penalty battalions and blockade squads in the KGB archives.
Sarcasm aside, in fact, there are different parallel realities in which Ukrainians live - the official one, convenient for the authorities, and the unofficial one, in which Ukrainians survive. But this destroys society. Also, as wild as it may sound, for a growing number of Ukrainians, evasion has become a symbol of resistance to the regime. I remember the book Postwar, by Tony Judt. To live normally in occupied Europe meant breaking the law: in the first place the laws of the occupiers (curfews, travel regulations, race laws, etc) but also conventional laws and norms as well. Most common people who did not have access to farm produce were obliged, for example, to resort to the black market or illegal barter just to feed their families. Theft—whether from the state, from a fellow citizen or from a looted Jewish store—was so widespread that in the eyes of many people it ceased to be a crime. Indeed, with gendarmes, policemen and local mayors representing and serving the occupier, and with the occupying forces themselves practicing organized criminality at the expense of selected civilian populations, common felonies were transmuted into acts of resistance (albeit often in post-liberation retrospect).
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On the night of April 20, the russian occupiers attacked Ukraine with 142 drones, including Shahed jets. The air defense forces managed to neutralize most of the drones, but there were 28 hits. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/shahedi-letili-vosmi-napryamkiv-sered-reaktivni-1776662596.html
I thought I was dreaming of an air raid and some explosions, but it was really a small attack. It's gotten a little colder, but the sun comes out during the day and if it weren't for the war, everything would look pretty good.
Only later did I learn that Sergiy UT7UD was injured and lost his house due to a drone strike. I visited him several times and it was a beautiful house. How many houses have we already lost and how many more will we lose? The main thing is that we are still alive and we are not surrender. https://www.unian.ua/war/flesh-radnik-ministra-oboroni-pokazav-zruynovaniy-budinok-vnaslidok-ataki-rf-13356576.html
Meanwhile, for the first time in Ukraine, what is called mass shooting happened. A man opened fire in a supermarket and seven people died, several more were injured. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c3r30llxeqlo
But a much greater public reaction was caused not by the event itself, but by a video showing police officers fleeing the scene, leaving wounded people lying behind them. https://t.me/kievinfo_kyiv/87258
Of course, the head of the National Police immediately placed all responsibility on these police officers and even fired their leader, the head of the police department. He also raised the issue of passing a law and allowing people to have weapons for self-defense. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/358893-lyudi-dolzhny-poluchit-pravo-na-vooruzhennuyu-samooboronu-igor-klimenko
But people are again asking why they need such a police force? And shouldn't its top leadership be responsible for such a situation? The slogan "every man for himself" has long been the basis of a social contract to which all classes have given their latent consent. The authorities removed themselves from participation in the war, secured for themselves monopoly access to all goods, and took care of their inviolability by law enforcement systems. Police officers and workers of mobilization centers ensure their release from military service by catching and sending others to the front instead of themselves. If attacks on servicemen of the mobilization centers (Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Centers (TCC and SP) continue, they may simply refuse to continue serving. This was stated by Andriy Podik, head of the communications department of the Land Forces Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Censor.NET reports. https://censor.net/ua/news/3609092/u-suhoputnyh-viyiskah-zsu-prokomentuvaly-napady-na-ttsk
And ordinary people try to survive without considering that they have any obligations to such a state at all. Because they understand that they do not represent much value even as a labor force, while the state is ready to replace them with migrants from other countries. https://thepublic.info/news/ukrayina_peregliane_migraciini_pravila_cerez_deficit_kadriv_i_nestacu_robitnikiv
So I was not surprised to see a recent post on social networks of one recruit who asked why he should die so that a migrant from, for example, Bangladeshi could live and work in Ukraine instead of him?
And the meme that appeared that same day - "who to call if the police are running away?"
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russian forces attacked Ukraine again with drone strikes overnight. Port and transport infrastructure in Odesa were under attack, as well as Dnipro and Zaporizhia in the east, with casualties. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/pid-udarami-dnipro-zaporizhzhya-odesa-ta-1776836993.html
Ukraine has completed repairs to the damaged section of the Druzhba oil pipeline, allowing it to resume its operation. The issue of energy security and fuel supply has become one of the key issues during negotiations with partners. Kyiv expects further decisions from European allies on financial and energy support, Volodymyr Zelensky said. https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-news/ukraina-zavershila-remont-naftoprovodu-druzhba-zelenskij-ozvuchiv-ochikuvannya-vid-evropejskih-partneriv.htm
So European Union ambassadors unblocked on Wednesday a 90-billion-euro ($106 billion) loan to Ukraine that is critical for Kyiv's ability to keep up the fight against russia. The loan, which was approved by the European Council in December, had been halted by a Hungarian veto amid a dispute over oil flows via the Druzhba pipeline. https://www.reuters.com/business/unblocked-eu-loan-provides-relief-ukraines-strained-finances-2026-04-22/
Hungarian Minister for European Union Affairs János Bók stated that it has been proven that Ukraine imposed an oil blockade against Hungary for political reasons. It has also been proven that Ukrainians will run out of money before we run out of oil. It has also been proven that political pressure can only be effectively countered by similar means. https://felvidek.ma/2026/04/20/boka-janos-ukrajna-mar-hetfon-helyreallithatja-az-olajszallitast-a-baratsag-koolajvezeteken/
This explains the authorities' increased enthusiasm for finding ways to further strengthen mobilization, because they once again received money to continue the war. Although, in my opinion, it has long been impossible to restore trust in the state, in recent days, law enforcement officers have carried out demonstrative detentions of mobilization center employees who were engaged in busification.
In Odesa, workers of a mobilization center were detained with gunfire after demanding $30,000 from a man, threatening him with a weapon. https://dumskaya.net/news/v-odesse-so-strelboy-zaderzhali-ttskshnikov-vide-190832/ua/ The operation was conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine, and Ukrainians reacted with jokes that the man must have been carrying a bribe to another service, and the mobilizers intercepted him, for which they paid.
Officially, the Main Department of Internal Security of the Security Service of Ukraine and the National Police, with the assistance of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the leadership of the Ground Forces, neutralized an organized criminal group in Odesa, which included employees of the local mobilization center, the press service of the Security Service of Ukraine reported. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky has already suspended the entire leadership of the regional and Peresypsky district mobilization center of the city of Odesa.
As the investigation established, the suspects demanded money from people. In case of refusal, they committed violence and threatened the victims with sending them "as stormtroopers to the front" in an accelerated mode. The suspects then tracked down the victims and attacked them right in the middle of the street or on the highways. Two service multi-vans were used for the raids: the victims were held in one, and a group from the second car monitored the situation around. writes BBC. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cy71z07gr8ko
Isn't this exactly what hundreds of videos online are about, and the authorities have denied that this is possible, or have said that these are russian fakes?
Over the last seven weeks of war, the US military has expended at least 45% of its stockpile of Precision Strike Missiles; at least half of its inventory of THAAD missiles, which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles; and nearly 50% of its stockpile of Patriot air defense interceptor missiles, according to a new analysis conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, writes CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/21/politics/us-military-missile-stockpile
Hungary’s next leader wants to revive Central Europe’s clout by tapping its imperial past. Prime Minister-elect Péter Magyar says he will deepen ties with neighboring states, especially Austria, building on strong economic links and a shared history rooted in the Austro-Hungarian Empire of the late nineteenth century, writes Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/peter-magyar-wants-put-austro-hungarian-empire-back-map/
On the one hand, I am reminded of the words of František Palacký: "Imagine the Austrian Empire fragmented into a multitude of greater and lesser republics. What a nice basis for universal russian monarchy". On the other hand, a German artist of Austrian origin also once decided to unite with Austria and rule Europe.
russia is set to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting from May 1. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-halt-kazakhstans-oil-flows-germany-via-druzhba-sources-say-2026-04-21/
In Tuapse, russia, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have attacked an oil refinery for the second time in four days. The resort town on the Black Sea coast is in smoke, and the water and air are contaminated with oil. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/u-tuapse-zsu-vdruhe-za-chotyry-dni-atakuvaly-npz-video-radio-svoboda/33736397.html
US President Donald Trump's administration on Friday issued a month-long sanctions waiver allowing the sale of russian oil and petroleum products that are at sea, extending an earlier move to soften surging energy prices. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260418-us-extends-sanctions-waiver-on-purchases-of-russian-oil
President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he considered visits by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow but not Kyiv "disrespectful". https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9v420y190o
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The EU Council took the final legislative step on April 23 to launch a €90 billion support package for Ukraine and also adopted the 20th package of sanctions against russia. Thus, Brussels simultaneously secured two key instruments of support for Kyiv - long-term funding for 2026-2027 and a new increase in pressure on the russian military economy. https://kurs.com.ua/novost/1456215-sovet-es-utverdil-90-mlrd-evro-dlja-ukraini-i-novie-sankcii-protiv-rf
Ukraine also received the final tranche from the United Kingdom under the international Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) program — 752 million pounds sterling, which is equivalent to approximately $1 billion, Banker.ua reports, citing the press service of the Ministry of Finance. https://banker.ua/uk/ukrayina-otrimala-velikoyi-blizko-1-mlrd/
Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko reported that Ukraine has already received 90% of the funds backed by revenues from russia’s frozen assets – $45 billion. https://www.mof.gov.ua/en/news/sergii_marchenko_ukraine_has_already_received_90_of_the_funds_backed_by_revenues_from_russias_frozen_assets__45_billion-5686
The Minister of Finance of Ukraine and the Group of Creditors of Ukraine have signed a Memorandum on the suspension of debt service due by Ukraine. It provides for the suspension of payments on State Debt and State-guaranteed Debt that were due from February 2026. Under the terms of the Memorandum, both debt service and principal repayments will be deferred until the end of February 2030, in line with the new program of the International Monetary Fund. Repayment of the suspended amounts will take place after this period through equal semi-annual installments over 2035–2039, with capitalization of deferred interest. https://www.mof.gov.ua/en/news/the_minister_of_finance_of_ukraine_and_the_group_of_creditors_from_the_g7_countries_and_the_paris_club_have_signed_a_memorandum_on_the_suspension_of_debt_service_due_by_ukraine-5687
On the other hand, this does not cover the huge budget deficit and economic stagnation, but it should be enough to continue the war. For Ukrainian men, this means continued mobilization.
On Thursday, April 23, the head of the Presidential Office, Kyrylo Budanov, visited the Kyiv Security Forum, where he made a number of important statements. He is against the idea of mass legalization of weapons for civilians. In his opinion, this will not provide real protection and may lead to an increase in violence. He also spoke about mobilization: "The only thing that can be tried to actually reform is such manifestations of inhuman treatment of people during forced mobilization, and not the fact of mobilization itself. Because there is another terrible truth. We have millions of people who are draft evaders." He also assured that during negotiations with russia, Ukraine would not agree to the loss of any part of its territory. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/ce8jrg096wko
Germany supports Ukraine's efforts to preserve mobilization and human resources, therefore, mechanisms are being prepared in Berlin for the return of Ukrainian refugees to their homeland, said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz after a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Berlin on April 14, 2026. https://glavred.net/war/mobilizaciya-shtrafy-i-tyurma-v-es-gotovyat-deportaciyu-muzhchin-v-ukrainu-chto-ih-zhdet-10758146.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2cBFKiHON4
To me, this sounds like the conditions under which Europe agreed to a new loan. As long as the war is going on in Ukraine and Ukrainians are fighting, money can continue to be allocated for this. Well, if the Ukrainians end up, then the Poles will probably be next.
I also remembered the words of the Ukrainian writer Ivan Bahryany, which he wrote while in Europe after World War II, when former Soviet residents began to be handed over to the Soviet authorities: I am one of the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who do not want to return home, under Bolshevism, to the bewilderment of the entire world.
I am a Ukrainian, from a working class, 35 years old, born in the Poltava region. Currently I live without stable housing, in perpetual need. I am roaming Europe like a stray dog, running from USSR repatriation commissions who want to return me to my “motherland”, to “rodina”, as they call it.
I don’t want to go back to that “motherland-rodina”. There are hundreds of thousands of us here who do not want to return. We are taken back there by force, but we resist fiercely. We’d rather die here, in a foreign land, than return to our “motherland”. https://medium.com/@whatisrussiaorg/why-i-am-not-going-back-to-soviet-union-by-ivan-bahrianyi-dbe9e5981eb1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Bahrianyi#Emigration
The head of the National Police of Ukraine, Ivan Vyhivsky, stated that the structure subordinate to him is not capable of independently assuming mobilization functions in an interview with RBC-Ukraine. Vyhivsky says that his department will not cope with such a volume of work, primarily due to the large shortage of personnel in the National Police of Ukraine. In addition, the head of the National Police says that police officers are against their involvement in mobilization activities together with mobilization centers, due to the threat of losing trust from the population. https://politarena.ua/vyhivskyy-zaiavyv-shcho-politsiia-ne-maie-resursiv-dlia-samostiynoho-provedennia-mobilizatsii-165093/
Member of the parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Fedir Venislavskyi voiced a possible approach to changing the mechanism for reserving employees during mobilization. According to him, one option could be a model under which enterprises would be able to reserve key employees by attracting new people to the service. The point is that a company that needs to retain a certain specialist could recruit several people — for example, three, five or even ten — who would voluntarily agree to serve in the army. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/359200-fedor-venislavskiy-predlozhil-novuyu-model-bronirovaniya-rabotnikov-cherez-rekruting-v-armiyu
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At least seven people were killed in russian strikes across Ukraine overnight yesterday, including five in the central city of Dnipro, where officials said an apartment building was hit. russian missiles and drones also targeted the northern city of Chernihiv, where officials said two people were killed, as well as Odesa and Kharkiv. Ukrainian authorities said they repelled the vast majority of the more than 600 russian drones, which appears to have been the largest attack in several days. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/ataka-na-dnipro-pid-zavalami-budinku-znayshli-zagiblih-kilkist-poranenih-zrosla-video-50603028.html
Meanwhile, Ukraine carried out some of its longest-distance drone strikes deep inside russian territory. In Yekaterinburg, almost 1,000 miles (1,600km) from Ukraine's border, the governor said six people were injured when a building was struck - while in nearby Chelyabinsk, a local leader said drones targeting an industrial facility were intercepted, writes BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0rxk4q0pj0o
With President Trump and his team preoccupied with the war in Iran, Europe is preparing for a longer war in Ukraine, with dwindling expectations for a negotiated settlement between Moscow and Kyiv. That leaves Ukraine largely on its own, fighting a war of attrition with russia with no end in sight. Neither Ukraine nor russia has a clear path to victory, and no one expects that a settlement of the war could be possible without the active American involvement and pressure on russia that Mr. Trump has always been reluctant to exercise, writes The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/25/world/europe/ukraine-russia-europe-european-union.html
Ukraine is already building its military architecture according to NATO standards, said the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, during his visit to the 18th annual Kyiv Security Forum. The situation on the battlefield is quite clear, and there is no significant progress. The Russians are suffering huge losses. Ukrainian soldiers are courageously holding the line of defense, and this is a complete dead end for the enemy, - Cavo Dragone emphasized. In turn, the Chairman of the Military Committee of the European Union, General Sean Clancy, noted that by 2030 the EU roadmap provides for the integration of the Ukrainian defense industry into the broader European ecosystem as part of the common security architecture. https://uatv.ua/uk/armiya-rf-zajshla-u-gluhyj-kut-sytuatsiyu-na-fronti-prokomentuvav-golova-vijskovogo-komitetu-nato/
The optimism of NATO generals is encouraging, but it is unknown what it is based on and whether it is an element of propaganda at all, given that even its members no longer believe in NATO?
Poland’s prime minister questioned whether the US would be “loyal” to its NATO commitment to defend Europe in the event of a russian attack and urged the EU to become a “real alliance” in protecting the continent. Donald Tusk told the FT that Europe’s “biggest, most important question is if the United States is ready to be as loyal as it is described in our [NATO] treaties,” as he warned russia could attack an alliance member in “months”. The unusual intervention from a Polish leader reflects growing uncertainty in Europe after US President Donald Trump’s threats and oscillating commitment to the continent’s defence. “For the whole eastern flank, my neighbours . . . the question is if NATO is still an organisation ready, politically and also logistically, to react, for example against russia if they try to attack,” he said. https://www.ft.com/content/1a5a2502-a45a-40c1-af6f-b30ecc34bacb?syn-25a6b1a6=1
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russia attacked Kyiv with drones on the afternoon of April 28, there were explosions in the city, smoke was rising over the city center, BBC correspondents report. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c78kl4ylvjmo
I must have been busy with something, or I didn't pay attention because of the noise on the streets during the day, so I didn't notice anything.
The oil refinery in the russian city of Tuapse that was hit by drones was carrying oil destined for export, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Video online showed a lot of smoke in the city. https://www.unian.ua/war/tuapse-u-kremli-prokomentuvali-novu-ataku-na-naftopererobniy-zavod-u-krasnodarskomu-kraji-13364967.html
On April 29, UAV operators of the Security Service of Ukraine struck a strategic oil pumping station near the russian city of Perm, more than 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine. https://rubryka.com/2026/04/29/bezpilotnyky-sbu-urazyly-naftoperekachuvalnu-stantsiyu/
russia has lost four times more military personnel on the front over the past four months than Ukraine, states Finnish President Alexander Stubb. "How much of a better place Ukraine is in today than they were a year ago? In the past four months — and sorry for being morbid — Ukraine has killed or wounded between 30 to 35,000 russian soldiers per month," the Finnish president said. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/stubb-reveals-russia-ukraine-war-casualty-1777264148.html
I don't know where they get these numbers from and how much they correspond to reality, but it contradicts the statements of the Ukrainian authorities that they mobilize 30,000 Ukrainians per month. Where are they all going? Is a large-scale offensive against russia being prepared? On the other hand, russia has not yet started forced mobilization, and they will not be stopped even by many times greater losses (taking into account their several times larger population). Historically, the russian authorities have not counted losses in any war. As for the hopes that the russians will start riots, I consider them futile. On the contrary, the experience of Ukraine has shown putin that even freedom-loving Ukrainians do not revolt en masse against forced mobilization (busification), and the more so the obedient russians will not do so.
Instead, Ukrainians continue to look for opportunities to escape from Ukraine. Andriy Demchenko, a spokesman for the State Border Service, said that the number of people trying to illegally cross the border along the Dniester River has increased recently. Often, during such attempts, not only wetsuits but also water scooters are used. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-regions/4117743-ricka-dnister-stala-koristuvatis-popitom-u-porusnikiv-kordonu-demcenko.html
But not everyone has the health to make such attempts. A conscript born in 1975 died of heart failure in the mobilization center of the city of Kryvyi Rih. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/359442-v-krivom-roge-v-pomeschenii-ttsk-skonchalsya-voennoobyazannyy-predpolozhitelno-ot-serdechnoy-nedostatochnosti
The soldiers of the 14th separate mechanized brigade named after Prince Roman the Great, who are defending Ukraine in the Kupyansk direction, found themselves in a critical situation due to a prolonged lack of food and water supplies. Photos of exhausted and emaciated soldiers shocked the Internet. The Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already reacted to the situation, announcing personnel changes and the delivery of food to the defenders. https://tsn.ua/amp/exclusive/use-pro-skandal-iz-holodnym-vysnazenniam-biytsiv-14-ombr-na-pozytsiiakh-3068711.html
Given Ukraine's complete dependence on Western aid, I have a strong impression that all decisions have long been made outside its borders and the only task of the Ukrainian authorities is to convince the population to accept it, guaranteeing the West that its conditions will be met. For the West, Ukraine means nothing more than a buffer with russia, beyond which hostilities should not occur. But since a certain time, the West has turned into the USA and Europe with their different attitudes.
The acting US ambassador to Ukraine will depart Kyiv in the coming weeks, according to people familiar with the matter, leaving a crucial diplomatic post vacant while russia prepares for a summer offensive and peace talks stall. Julie Davis, who has served as temporary chargé d’affaires at the US embassy in Kyiv since May last year, had grown frustrated with her role amid differences with President Donald Trump over his dwindling support for Ukraine, writes Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/33d5d8d4-a7db-4647-9751-c21de8ebecb8?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Boris Ruge to become new German ambassador to Kyiv. According to information obtained by SPIEGEL, the cabinet is expected to approve today the transfer of diplomat Boris Ruge from NATO headquarters to Ukraine. The German government intends to cooperate even more closely with the country in the future. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/boris-ruge-wird-neuer-botschafter-deutschlands-in-kyjiw-a-de0deedf-eec4-4aef-8a22-d1b3470e0f80
The European Union is considering imposing stricter conditions on its €90 billion ($105 billion) loan to Ukraine, making some of the payouts dependent on the introduction of an unpopular tax change for businesses, according to people familiar with the matter.
The plan being discussed by the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, would affect €8.4 billion in so-called macro-financial assistance expected to be granted this year under the program, which is essential to keeping Kyiv in the fight against russia’s full-scale invasion.
The push coincides with Ukraine’s efforts to persuade its other major donor, the International Monetary Fund, to at least delay imposing the same requirement to unlock more aid under a separate loan program worth more than $8 billion, the people said. They asked to remain anonymous because the talks are private.
The discussion has zoomed in on changes to a preferential tax regime currently applying to some Ukrainian companies. Initially designed for self-employed entrepreneurs and small businesses, it allows firms to pay a minimum rate of 5% of revenue. The change would add more than 40 billion hryvnia ($907 million) annually to the budget, according to the Finance Ministry’s estimates.
The Finance Ministry and Ukraine’s major donors have argued that the arrangement is a drain on the wartime budget, distorts competition and helps maintain a large shadow economy. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/ukraine-faces-risk-of-tougher-eu-loan-terms-to-get-aid-payouts
In Kyiv, about 400 cafes and fast food restaurants have closed in a few months, which accounts for 13-14% of the catering market. The main reasons for the closures include high electricity costs, power outages, dismantling of temporary structures where they were located, market oversaturation and reduced customer solvency. https://24tv.ua/business/restorani-kiyevi-masovo-zakrivayutsya-mova-yde-pro-kavyarni-stritfud_n3055370
Apparently, in order to cheer up sad Ukrainians, the Kyiv authorities decided to broadcast a national minute of silence every day at 9:00 through the loudspeakers of the public address system. https://kyiv.news/misto-i-infrastruktura/kyiv-khvylyna-movchannia-9-00-huchnomovtsi/ At least one of my friends, who wants to get some sleep after a night shift, experiences a moment of hatred for this loud notification under the windows. It seems that someone has been reading Orwell's 1984 carefully...
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It was quiet in Kyiv today, but drones flew in waves for more than seven hours, hitting mainly cities in central and western Ukraine. Explosions were heard in Zhytomyr, Ternopil, Rivne, Vinnytsia and Starokostyantyniv. The Air Force said that the massive drone attack lasted from 08:00 to 15:30, the russian army launched 409 strike drones, of which 388 were shot down and suppressed. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/clyp2lydl1jo
Yesterday, we discussed King Charles III's visit to the USA https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/27/us/gallery/king-charles-us-state-visit and his speech there with the English and an American until late. Of course, the conversation turned to Ukraine. For an Englishman (to be precise, an elderly man), the idea of the need to serve in the army or fight for one's country is something natural and unquestionable. Patriotism that does not require explanation, taking into account the historical and cultural context. Of course, one should be careful to listen to the opinions about war of people who never took part in it personally. Of course, in this case too, the opinion of the general at headquarters will differ from the opinion of the infantryman, and we will never know the opinions of the dead. I think a lot of things in wars would change if generals spent at least one month a year in the trenches with their soldiers without any privileges.
But in Ukraine, the situation is different, given its history and the nature of the interaction between people and the state. Too often, for people, the state became an enemy that they preferred to leave. And even the powerful patriotic propaganda of the USSR did not always help, which is why no less powerful repression and coercion were used at the same time. So, for Ukrainians with the Soviet experience of their persecution and the historical post-Soviet experience of searching for a better economic life abroad, a clear understanding of what exactly they should fight for is needed now. It is obvious that words about patriotism are not enough in conditions when citizens do not associate the state with good and who try to leave it at the first opportunity. The fact that the state has closed its borders once again confirms the justice of distrust towards it and reminds of the USSR. The threat of physical destruction even in the event of a complete occupation by russia seems unlikely to many and in any case too abstract and distant. Even victims of drone attacks are given no more attention than victims of car accidents. Well, it happens, but life goes on and more attention is focused on where to get money for food and what to do if there is no heating next winter like the previous one. Also the threat of being caught on the street and being conscripted into the army, from which no one returns, is more real.
Typical situations are like the one on Facebook, when representatives of the mobilization center grab a man who brought his child to kindergarten by the arms and legs and drag him into a car, while a policeman helps them. https://www.facebook.com/100068027056777/videos/3427647274079743/?rdid=peH6yW05kD0CasqP# This is nothing more than illegal kidnapping, which is a criminal offense. At the same time, according to the law, the police had the right only to check this man's documents, and if necessary, issue a summons for him to appear at the mobilization center. So what kind of respect and trust for itself and the desire to fight for it can a state demand, whose representatives are the first to break the law, and the police not only do not react to this, but are essentially accomplices in the crime? And if the state considers this normal, why doesn't it change the laws and legalize it in this form?
https://www.facebook.com/groups/2267700416617760/permalink/26474841185477012
Therefore, it is not surprising that someone is shooting at such "alert groups" as they are officially called, or throwing grenades into the territory of mobilization centers.
https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2485566358539077&id=100012572109437&rdid=0EYm5Xg1TZh5ZxAv#
https://sud.ua/uk/news/photo/359945-v-beloy-tserkvi-progremel-vzryv-vozle-zdaniya-ttsk-foto
Thus, the need to permanently fight without understanding real goals and the possibilities of achieving them is a very complex and ambiguous issue that requires a very clear and consistent position of the state, which, before demanding anything from people, must first restore trust in itself and demonstrate common values for all. Otherwise, it must be admitted that Ukraine has actually turned into an authoritarian police state, the power of which is based on fear and coercion, similar to russia. This is reminiscent of the times after the Second World War, when Eastern Europe, after the German occupation, fell under the Soviet occupation, and the life of its inhabitants became even worse. Of course, with the exception of those to whom the new regime redistributed benefits at the expense of its victims. George Orwell also viewed war and regime as interconnected tools of control, arguing that modern totalitarian states utilize perpetual conflict to maintain domestic authority, suppress living standards, and destroy critical thought. So there is always a real danger of substituting the real goals of the war and the desire of some to turn it into an endless one. It's enough, as the ancient Romans said, to look around and understand who benefits from it.
Given that the Trump administration has removed military aid from the 2027 budget https://www.c-span.org/program/senate-committee/defense-secy-hegseth--joint-chiefs-chair-testify-on-iran-war--2027-budget/678334 and the deterioration of relations with Europe due to Zelensky's unacceptable statements https://www.ft.com/content/4641fc30-6fc9-43d4-bc84-7ea0521a79b1 , the latter has announced grandiose reforms in the army, including a several-fold increase in military salaries. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c202n349yxwo Time will tell what and how will be implemented, but for now, new vehicles are being purchased for the police and vans for the national guard, while soldiers are forced to ask for donations of old pickup trucks.
But I continue to believe that Ukraine will win without losing itself. And then Ukrainians will receive a long-term impulse as a people who defeated russia. This is what the myth of the future Ukraine will be built on.
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It has gotten warmer, but I have been feeling worse than ever in the last few days. Air raid warnings are issued every day, and sometimes drones are shot down by air defenses, but there have been no missile strikes on Kyiv for quite some time. Instead, Ukraine is increasing its air attacks on russia, and one drone even flew into Moscow last night. According to Moscow authorities, the drone hit an apartment building near the city center. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/crep7p1j0ydo
Also, with the development of interceptor drones, the economic balance has changed. One of Moscow's most powerful weapons has been the Iranian-designed low-cost, long range Shahed-136 attack drone, plus its own updated version, the Geran. While a Shahed can cost between $80,000 and $130,000 (£59,500 and £95,500), it can be intercepted with systems costing as little as $10,000 (£7,400). That's far cheaper than traditional air defence missiles which cost millions of dollars.
Crude oil export data suggests the rise in prices, plus the easing of American sanctions on countries buying russian oil, boosted russian revenues to 2.3 times their December-February levels in the third week of the Iran war. But in the fourth week, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy-producing infrastructure reduced russia's earnings by $1 billion, eradicating around two-thirds of the previous week's gains. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgjp7vpee03o
But recently, no one has mentioned the main threat that made Biden and others extremely reluctant to help Ukraine in recent years? The fact that russia could use nuclear weapons to finally solve the problem of Kyiv? Maybe this is why Trump is withdrawing his troops from Europe? https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0729d374mxo
Globally, russia’s economy is now being countered by the economy of the European Union, which continues to finance Ukraine. Also, russia’s advance on the front has slowed down again, which all together gives the Ukrainian authorities reason to hope, if not for stopping the war, then for the ability to continue it indefinitely. But the problems within the country have not only not gone away, but also continue to accumulate. No one knows how much money will actually be left for the social sphere, what will happen to energy and heating in the winter in large cities. Also, in recent days, Zelensky's confrontation with his former associates has intensified, which is why he even imposed personal sanctions against his former head of the President's Office, Andriy Bohdan, who was one of those who brought Zelensky to power in the 2019 elections. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/svoboda-live-zelenskyy-bohdan-natsbezpeka-sanktsiyi-mindichheyt-plivky/33749669.html In response, Bohdan said that he would no longer adhere to the moratorium on criticism of the authorities. One can imagine how much sensitive information he has on Zelensky. But I am more concerned not so much that Zelensky can be removed by his former associates, but what his successors will be like, and whether it will happen like in Iran, when the new government made life in the country even worse than it was during the time of the Ayatollah killed by the Americans.
But the problem is much deeper and more destructive in the conditions of Ukraine. The problem of imbalance that is most clearly occurs in issues of social justice in general and mobilization in particularly.
The worst problem of modernity lies in the malignant transfer of fragility and antifragility from one party to the other, with one getting the benefits, the other one (unwittingly) getting the harm, with such transfer facilitated by the growing wedge between the ethical and legal. This state of affairs has existed before, but is acute today— modernity hides it especially well. It is, of course, an agency problem. And the agency problem is, of course, an asymmetry. We are witnessing of fundamental change. Consider older societies—those societies that have survived. The main difference between us and them is the disappearance of a sense of heroism; A shift away from a certain respect— and power— But those who take downside risks for others. Heroism is the exact inverse of the agency problem: someone elects to bear the disadvantage (risks his own life, or harm to himself, or, in milder forms, accepts to deprive himself of some benefits) for the sake of others. What we have currently is the opposite: power seems to go to those, like bankers, corporate executives (non entrepreneurs), and politicians, who steal a free options from society.
And heroism is not just about riots and wars.
Excerpt from:
Skin in the Game: Antifragility and Optionality the Expense of Others
Nassim N. Taleb
The number of reserved men at Ukrainian enterprises will be reviewed, because the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are understaffed, and the authorities must act. This was reported by the People's Deputy from the Servant of the People party, Serhiy Nagornyak, in an interview with "Telegraph". He also believes that it is necessary to nullify absolutely all disability certificates without exception, that is, to make everyone "healthy" again. Instead, the deputy believes that the state should offer them economic reservation, that is, to buy off the service with money. https://telegraf.ua/ukr/ukrayina/5939265-zsu-ne-vistachae-cholovikiv-usi-dovidki-pro-invalidnist-treba-obnuliti-v-radi-rozpovili-yak-mozhna-vryatuvati-mobilizatsiyu
The idea of redeeming oneself from slavery is not new. It is very reminiscent of the system of serfdom that existed in the russian Empire until 1861, and seems to have been restored in 2022 in Ukraine. Part of the population was actually deprived of their freedom, but was left with the opportunity to pay off with bribes. Now they are proposing to do this officially and consider it "justice."
Meanwhile, the military complains that mobilization centers send sick people, drug addicts, and marginalized people who are simply unfit to serve into the army, which actually only weakens the army. https://hromadske.ua/viyskovi/263038-ti-koho-nadsylaiut-ttsk-tse-katastrofa-khodiacha-shcho-robyty-z-armiyeiu-neprydatnykh
Also, some distribution and training centers, judging by the videos, photos and stories that are periodically heard by friends and relatives of mobilized people, are more reminiscent of concentration camps surrounded by barbed wire and lacking conditions for stay. Those who escape from there say that it is better not to end up there. Therefore, it is not surprising that people are increasingly choosing resistance when detained on the street. A man was detained in Dnipro, who on May 4 wounded three servicemen of the mobilization center with a firearm. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c1w2e77z7n3o
But law enforcement agencies only pursue draft evaders, although it is still unclear who is harming the country's defense capabilities more.
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russia and Ukraine have declared unilateral ceasefires starting this week, ahead of commemorations held by russia to mark the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany on Saturday, 9 May. russia said it would hold a ceasefire on 8 and 9 May and threatened a "massive missile strike" on central Kyiv if Ukraine violated the truce. But Kyiv announced it would observe an open-ended ceasefire from midnight on 6 May, and that Ukraine would act "symmetrically" from that point on. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1e2zjz22p9o
Shortly after the warring sides announced the moves, five people were killed and dozens injured in combined missile and drone strikes across Ukraine overnight. Poltava, Kyiv, Chernihiv and Cherkasy regions were hit. There are at least 5 dead, dozens injured and destruction. It was also noisy in Kyiv all night, but the drone attacks were repelled. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c8d891784g2o
russia, among other things, massively attacked Naftogaz gas production facilities in the Poltava and Kharkiv regions. The company reported the death of three of its employees and two rescuers from the State Emergency Service, and another 37 people were injured. According to Naftogaz, the attacks were carried out by drones and ballistic missiles. The company reported significant destruction at the facilities and losses in production, without specifying their volume. https://kurs.com.ua/novost/1458565-rossija-udarila-po-gazodobiche-naftogaza-pogibli-pjat-chelovek-37-raneni
In russia, authorities in the Chuvash Republic said two people were killed and 32 injured in a drone attack on Tuesday morning.
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Ukraine asks the EU to share data on Ukrainians under temporary protection in the European Union. This was announced by the Ministry of Social Policy after a meeting between the Minister of Social Policy Denys Ulyutin and the European Commissioner for Home Affairs and Migration Magnus Brunner. At the meeting, Ulyutin spoke about the importance of data on Ukrainians under protection in the EU. This is necessary, in particular, for planning and preparing the return of Ukrainians home. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cj6p7097w5wo
This may be a sign that the war is coming to an end, although not all Ukrainians will want to return to Ukraine, and Europe will not be willing to send back all Ukrainians. There could also be a compromise solution where everyone who isn’t working in Europe will be returned to Ukraine. But even now, many of those planning to leave Ukraine are considering countries farther away, outside of Europe, where the Ukrainian authorities won’t be able to reach them.
Moreover, the rules for men aged 18–22 to travel abroad may change, but there are no plans to lower the mobilization age, said Ruslan Horbenko, a member of parliament from the pro-government Servants of the People party. https://telegraf.ua/ukr/ukrayina/5939353-e-neglasniy-nakaz-zmenshiti-kilkist-kritichnikh-pidpriemstv-v-radi-rozpovili-yak-zminitsya-bronyuvannya
Volodymyr Zelensky has instructed to develop and adopt a law on Ukrainian private military companies this year so that veterans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can legally earn on their combat experience through the export of security services. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/360453-v-ukraine-gotovyat-zakonodatelstvo-dlya-chastnykh-voennykh-kompaniy-zelenskiy
Interestingly, Kyrylo Budanov previously opposed the creation of private military companies. It seems that his confrontation with Zelensky, if not obvious now, will intensify over time.
Corruption scandals are already directly pointing to Zelensky, for whom really difficult times are coming. New "Mindich tapes" raise questions about corruption in Zelensky's inner circle. The accusation is that a power circle is profiting from the war and Western aid. https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/article/korruption-selenskyj-innerster-zirkel-westliche-hilfe-mindich-tapes-10034451
The fact that Budanov left all his deputies in his office and additionally appointed Serhiy Tigipko, a Ukrainian oligarch and deputy prime minister during the Yanukovych era, as his advisor, https://epravda.com.ua/power/hto-pozashtatni-radniki-budanova-821228/ may speak of his flexibility and unprincipledness. Or it may indicate his complete dependence on those who really run the country behind Zelensky and other public figures, including Budanov. Some note that all those who were part of the Yanukovych regime and lost their positions after the Maidan and his flight to russia in 2014 are gradually returning to power. If Zelensky is personally removed, it will open the way to peace with russia on the terms that existed before 2014. And everything will be as before, minus the several million Ukrainians who died or left Ukraine and the loss of a fifth of the territories with most of the heavy industry and minerals.
Things are not so good in russia itself either. russia's Victory Day parade with no tanks a sign Ukraine war not going to plan. russia's national idea, constructed under Vladimir putin, centres around the Soviet Union's victory in World War Two. The ninth of May has become russia's most important national holiday. But this year the 9 May parade is being scaled back. For the first time in nearly two decades there will be no military hardware on Red Square: no tanks, no ballistic missiles. Just soldiers. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy2gj2jlr8o
Propaganda is trying to convince that russia will soon collapse economically. I've been hearing this for years now. But I haven't been there for a long time and I can neither confirm nor deny it.
Instead, yesterday I went to a small store nearby to buy bread, but I saw only empty shelves. The seller said that they haven't brought bread for the second day because there is no one to carry it. The last time bread was not brought to this store was at the end of February 2022 during the general chaos.
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I've been feeling unwell again lately. The worst thing is that the heart attacks happen at night and then you're also tired because you haven't slept. I hope it's caused by the weather changes and it will get better soon. Although I tolerate heat worse than cold.
Vladimir putin has used his annual Victory Day speech in Moscow's Red Square to justify his war in Ukraine and denounce Nato. Speaking in front of hundreds of military personnel, the russian president said he was fighting a "just" war and called Ukraine an "aggressive force" that is being "armed and supported by the whole bloc of Nato". His remarks come amid muted celebrations across russia to mark the nation's biggest national holiday, commemorating the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany. Ahead of the celebrations, curtailed for security reasons amid fears of Ukrainian attack, russia and Ukraine agreed to observe a three-day ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump on Friday. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c202zn5gg0lo
For the first time in years, no armoured vehicles or ballistic missiles featured in Moscow's Victory Day parade. But under tightened security, military personnel marched in droves across Red Square.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c626xjq0q0vo
Zelensky, in his clownish style, posted on the official website of the President of Ukraine the text of the Decree that he supposedly allows Russia to hold a parade on May 9. https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/3742026-59389 At first I thought it was a fake. It’s sad that many people in Ukraine find it funny. In fact, russia continues to get what it wants, but both Trump and Zelensky are selling it as their own victory. This is probably what the final peace agreement on russian terms will look like.
The only undeniable advantage is the prisoner exchange agreement, as a result of which another 1,000 Ukrainians will have the opportunity to return to Ukraine and the same number of russians to russia. Open sources indicate that as of the last major exchange (April 2026), the total number of returned Ukrainians is about 6,139 people (this includes both military and civilians). One can only guess how many more Ukrainian prisoners are being held by russia.
The ceasefire also looked like a renunciation of air strikes with drones and missiles, but at the front the war is taking its course. But as everyone knows, the war continues as long as there is money for it.
The Government of Ukraine is preparing large-scale changes to the State Budget for 2026, which envisage an increase in total expenditures by UAH 1.64 trillion (more than USD 37 billion), mainly due to credit support from the European Union, said Roksolana Pidlasa, head of the parliamentary budget committee. https://lb.ua/economics/2026/05/08/737115_pidlasa_zagalniy_obsyag_vidatkiv.html
It is possible that the authorities are going to increase the salaries of the military and the attractiveness of the service with these funds. Another mobilization reform is also expected. And for now, the war between mobilization centers and citizens continues. For example in Odesa, a group of people blocked a mobilization center car and used gas - as a result, 3 conscripts escaped. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/360343-v-odesse-gruppa-lits-zablokirovala-avtomobil-ttsk-i-primenila-gaz-v-rezultate-sbezhali-3-voennoobyazannykh
The military says that representatives of mobilization centers should wear a different uniform so as not to discredit them. They probably do not know that the opposition of the military and civilians is a classic example of the "divide and rule" policy.
About 31 million people live in the territory controlled by Ukraine, but about 13 million of them work, said Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture Oleksiy Sobolev. Another 2.3 million people with disabilities remain outside the labor market, and about 800,000 Ukrainians under the age of 60 receive pensions and do not work. These figures show one of the key problems of the war economy: business is simultaneously faced with a shortage of personnel, and the state is faced with a limited base for paying taxes and social contributions. https://kurs.com.ua/novost/1459395-v-ukraine-rabotajut-lish-okolo-13-mln-chelovek-kak-pravitelstvo-hochet-rasshirit-rinok-truda
I don't know what part of the 13 million workers does this in the real sector of the economy, and not consumes budget resources like civil servants or security forces, who formally can also be considered working. Constant changes in rules and uncertainty have led to the fact that even official military service reservations are no longer considered reliable, and more and more people are choosing to work illegally, or not work at all, not trusting the state.
It also seems that no one really knows the real size of Ukraine’s population right now. The Minister of Social Policy, Family and Unity of Ukraine, Denys Ulyutin, reported that currently, approximately 22–25 million people live in the territory controlled by Ukraine. According to him, for comparison, in 1991, the population of Ukraine was about 48 million people, and as of 2022, it is about 41 million. https://sud.ua/uk/news/obshchestvo/360710-naselenie-ukrainy-na-podkontrolnoy-territorii-sokratilos-do-22-25-mln-chelovek-minsotspolitiki
Meanwhile, a wave of fear is beginning to spread in Ukraine due to rumors about the mass importation of migrants. Particularly irritating are videos of Indians on social networks who call on their compatriots to go to Ukraine, where there are many free, beautiful girls. Perhaps this is done intentionally.
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After the end of the ceasefire declared for May 9-11, russia again launched massive drone attacks almost all over Ukraine. Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Zhytomyr, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv regions, as well as Kyiv and the capital region were hit. Energy facilities, infrastructure, houses, a kindergarten, locomotives were damaged.
The Air Force specified that on the night of May 12, the russian Federation launched 216 drones of various types over Ukraine. Of these, 192 drones were shot down, the Armed Forces of Ukraine claim. There were 25 hits in 10 places, as well as debris falling in several more locations. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c042dr64nnko
It was noisy in Kyiv at night, but another event attracted much more attention. The former head of the President's Office and one of the defendants in the "Midas" corruption case, which is being conducted by the NABU and the SAPO, Andriy Yermak, was declared suspicious. Ukrainska Pravda also published information about the alleged conversations of businessman Timur Mindich, suspected of corruption, with the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov, when he still held the position of Minister of Defense. Their communication, it seems, concerned the activities of the Fire Point company - a manufacturer of long-range drones and missiles in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cg7p5rg0k8ko
So, Volodymyr Zelensky may be next in this chain. It is no coincidence that Yulia Mendel, who served as press secretary to President Volodymyr Zelensky from 2019 to 2021, made a series of accusations against the head of state on May 11, 2026, in a podcast by American journalist Tucker Carlson. The main thesis that caused the greatest resonance was the statement that during the Istanbul talks in the spring of 2022, Zelensky allegedly personally agreed to “give up” Donbas in order to end the war. The President’s Office rejected these allegations, and the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, Andriy Kovalenko, called them conspiratorial. https://kurs.com.ua/novost/1460026-v-ofise-prezidenta-otreagirovali-na-intervju-julii-mendel
But in this case, what is important is not what Zelensky said or did not say, but the fact that he has now become a victim of black PR, thanks to the use of which he defeated Poroshenko in 2019. In general, it is difficult to detect disinformation and manipulations even when checking sources and context with the help of analytical tools of artificial intelligence. What can we say about ordinary people who take information at best from a couple of dubious Telegram channels in the format of click-bait headlines? Information viruses spread freely across the Internet.
Information wars have direct consequences in the real world. Some believe that the prisoner exchange was disrupted precisely because of Zelensky's publication of an offensive decree allowing russia to hold a parade. russia may not have intended to make the exchange, but now it gives it the opportunity to shift responsibility. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cvgz9yyvd3yo
russian President Vladimir putin has suggested russia's conflict with Ukraine could be drawing to a close. Speaking after Saturday's scaled-back Victory Day military parade in Moscow, he said: "I think that the matter is coming to an end" - referring to the "special military operation" in Ukraine - while condemning Western support for Kyiv. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn8p4j2jzwwo
Of course, putin continues to demonstrate the invariability of his intention to continue the war and win military victories, but it is obvious that they would have done it if they could. Instead, the loss of momentum over two years indicates that if you do not move forward, you will begin to retreat. And this is exactly what is on the table before putin - to stop in time. The decisive thing for me is that Europe has made a strategic choice, so the next few steps and the situation are easily calculated like in chess. Plus, China is showing a master class on how to achieve goals without fighting. From which I draw an optimistic conclusion that the war will slowly end by mutual consent. This is a big plus in the external situation, but will cause extremely great turbulence inside.
Already, disgusting stories related to migration and mobilization are poisoning and destroying society in Ukraine. And if scaremongering about migrants can be considered a means of distracting attention, then the problems with mobilization require a quick solution.
On May 10, in the Podilskyi district of the Odesa region, a man attacked soldiers at a mobilization center and seriously injured two of them. Both victims are in the hospital. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c7593gkzk9xo
In Lviv, after meeting with representatives of the mobilization center, a man took a 13-year-old girl hostage and put a knife to her neck. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/360703-vo-lvove-muzhchina-posle-vstrechi-s-ttsk-vzyal-v-zalozhniki-13-letnyuyu-devochku-i-pristavil-ey-nozh-k-shee
MP from the "Servant of the People" party, Heorhiy Mazurashu, published a post on Facebook on Sunday, where he called representatives of the mobilization center "unofficial assistants of racist aggressors" and noted the address where they were located so that they could be avoided. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2026/05/10/8034080/
So far, all reforms are reduced to changing names - the Ministry of Defense team proposes to transform territorial recruitment and social support centers (as mobilization centers are officially called) into "Reserve+ Offices" with separate units - recruitment offices and support offices. They also complain that the police refuse to take on the responsibility of detaining and delivering those who do not want to serve. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2026/05/11/8034135/
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For two days russia has been massively attacking Ukraine with drones and missiles. Yesterday the main blow fell on the western regions, and all night there were explosions in Kyiv. A drone hit a residential building nearby and it was very loud, I think the debris also fell on the roof of my house. The launches of Patriot interceptor missiles sound louder than the interception or hitting of ballistic missiles.
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c232p0n07yvo
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cy028n9gwd1o
At least 12 people have been killed, including two children, in Kyiv after Russia launched a massive overnight drone and missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital and other regions, officials have said. The victims' bodies were pulled from the rubble of a partially destroyed apartment building in Kyiv, where rescuers are still searching for at least 20 people feared missing, Ukraine's emergencies service said. It said 45 people, including two children, were injured. Friday has been declared a day of mourning in the city. The overnight barrage saw more than 670 drones and 56 missiles targeting the country and a total of more than 1,560 Russian drones had targeted Ukrainian cities since Tuesday night. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq5p8yygq94o
I saw somewhere that six ballistic missiles were not intercepted in Kyiv. In the afternoon I went to a court hearing and a couple of meetings. Everyone is sleepy and angry, but happy that they themselves were not injured and their cars and houses were not damaged.
Meanwhile, former head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, is under arrest on suspicion of corruption. https://24tv.ua/andriy-yermak-zapobizhniy-zahid-14-travnya-2026-znahoditsya-vin_n3068195
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Just awful. Thank God you were not hit.
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Just awful. Thank God you were not hit.
It was a powerful attack, but smaller ones continue every day and the air raid siren sounds several times both day and night. The attack by Ukrainian drones on Moscow and the region could look like a great success if we did not recall the statements of the authorities last summer about the mass production of long-range Flamingo cruise missiles, on which billions were spent. https://24tv.ua/ru/flamingo-raketa-harakteristiki-dalnost-razmer-ves-kuda-doletaet_n2896021
https://24tv.ua/ru/byli-uspeshnye-ispytanija-zelenskij-rasskazal-o-raketnoj-programme-flamingo_n2898436
During this time, they could have launched at least a dozen...
And for now, small Ukrainian drones are trying to set fire to oil storage facilities or precisely hit critical production facilities. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/clypkn0nll1o
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russia’s winning streak in Ukraine is over, writes CNN https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/14/europe/russia-winning-streak-ukraine-over-intl-cmd and I agree with this conclusion. It seems that without direct military support from China, russia has no other weapons left except nuclear weapons, which it has not yet used, and they are not enough for a confident victory. On the other hand, in Ukraine it has to fight with the entire West, which supports Ukraine with its resources. It seems that russia will not dare to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, so the realization of the impossibility of victory may stop russia, since the further destruction of Ukraine and the killing of Ukrainians no longer gives it new gains.
JPMorgan Chase analysts offer their vision of how the war in Ukraine could end: "The war will be decided at the negotiating table—not the battlefield. The conflict has settled into a conditional stalemate; the frontlines have barely changed in the last two years. Military dynamics shape leverage, but the outcome will be determined by how the diplomatic, financial, and military theaters evolve together. A "Finland-like" outcome is now the most likely path. Ukraine will likely be forced to accept territorial loss and limited security assurances while preserving sovereignty and continuing its westward integration—trading a just peace for a durable one. Time and pressure favor Moscow. Ukraine faces tightening financial constraints, growing strain on Western munitions, and increasing political pressure from Washington, while russia has a longer runway and benefits from improving near-term economic conditions. These dynamics are likely to force Kyiv to accept a flawed and uneven settlement—most likely before power changes hands again in Washington and Putin loses what he may perceive to be his biggest “Trump” card." https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmorganchase/documents/center-for-geopolitics/jmpc-cfg-ukraine-report.pdf
The US position, which supports both sides, remains controversial, but is certainly focused solely on its own interests. The U.S. Treasury will extend a sanctions waiver allowing purchases of russian seaborne oil for another 30 days to aid "energy-vulnerable" countries cut off from Gulf oil supplies, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday, May 18. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-treasury-extend-sanction-waiver-russian-seaborne-oil-source-says-2026-05-18/
Even more interesting is the situation with the testing of various military technologies in Ukraine. Now it seems that everyone is using Ukraine as a testing ground, which in turn can use the most modern systems provided for testing. But I do not know how the simultaneous joint use of different systems is organized at a time when Europe is trying to replace or choose its own systems instead of American ones.
Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has picked a French AI firm over the U.S. security giant Palantir, in a push to make Europe less reliant on American tech, according to German media reports. https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-spy-agency-picks-france-ai-firm-over-palantir/
This raises the question of how NATO will now use all these different systems of its members, since NATO used to be synonymous with standardization and unification? Perhaps after the next US elections the situation will change again. At least some processes are slowly progressing. Australia has joined the growing international effort to establish the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine as an Associate Member of the Enlarged Partial Agreement. https://lawcouncil.au/international-law/event-resources/prosecuting-the-crime-of-aggression-establishing-the-special-tribunal-for-ukraine-at-a-critical-juncture-for-international-justice
But no external assistance will help Ukraine if it does not begin to change from within. The situation with the former head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak, who was taken to court on suspicion of corruption, but was released after posting bail, best reveals the essence of the Ukrainian government. According to the investigation, the second person in the state used the services of a fortune teller, including during personnel appointments. https://www.unian.ua/incidents/andriy-yermak-radivsya-z-vorozhkoyu-na-im-ya-veronika-anikiyevich-13381038.html
At the same time, he himself enjoyed the absolute trust of the president. The fact that the professionalism of officials was not taken into account demonstrates Yermak's choice of a lawyer who was not even able to prepare for the trial and find out that his client had never been a deputy. His statements in court about this caused surprise and laughter among those present, and Yermak himself eloquently shook his head, denying this.
People also mock his lack of preparation for the trial. Knowing about the existence of a criminal case, he not only failed to flee Ukraine, but also failed to raise money for bail in advance. This became a separate part of the show due to the companies and people who paid bail. One of them was the famous football player and head coach of the Ukrainian national football team, Serhiy Rebrov. Evil tongues say that this was a response to the fact that Yermak helped him earlier. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-skhemy-zjasuvaly-hto-vnis-reshtu-zastavy-za-jermaka/33759331.html
https://news.liga.net/en/politics/news/is-yermak-a-systemic-person-or-just-a-random-person-the-schemes-told-who-finished-off-the-bail
Perhaps all this is part of a farce and the purpose of the trial is only to show the appearance of fighting corruption and distract people's attention. Time will tell what real punishment Yermak and others will suffer.
What alternative is offered to Ukrainians? The West seems to like the image of a strong hand who declares a desire to end the war through negotiations, but is ready to continue to send Ukrainians to the front by force. Kyrylo Budanov, Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, arrived at a meeting with The Times reporters carrying a holstered sidearm.
Budanov distanced himself from Yermak, who was accused of amassing untrammelled power, by saying he would run the office very differently, trusting his subordinates to fulfil their duty. “No micromanagement. Full delegation of authority to the relevant people and full responsibility of those people for the result,” he said. https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/kyrylo-budanov-president-zelensky-right-hand-man-hgrjkdfgj
It is noteworthy that he left his deputies in their positions with all their backgrounds and did not change anything in the office policy. It seems that he is completely satisfied with the system built by his predecessor, which now works for Budanov.
No one denies his merits as a spy, but will his qualifications be enough in another way? Are Ukrainians ready to pay with their lives for his ambitions? To what extent do his values of a brave warrior coincide with the values of the majority of Ukrainians who elected a comedian as their president 7 years ago?
On May 15, Kyiv declared a day of mourning due to the most massive strike by the russian federation, https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/kievi-ogolosili-den-zhalobi-cherez-naymasovanishiy-1778765511.html and on May 16, a crowd of thousands is gathering to have fun at the Boombox concert. https://24tv.ua/show24/bumboks-vistupiv-kiyevi-16-travnya-2026-yak-proyshov-kontsert_n3069544
So, someone has army slavery until the end of their lives - and someone has a full life with concerts, summer terraces, proseks and doner kebabs in crowded pubs.
Someone can hold concerts for thousands in the open air, but the people were officially told that there will be no elections under this government precisely for this reason - it is deadly dangerous to gather en masse during a war.
So in Ukraine there are parallel worlds that do not intersect. The government and the people, the rear and the army, and everyone with everyone.
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Exercises on the combat use of nuclear weapons have begun in Belarus with the participation of russian military personnel. The Belarusian Defense Ministry announced the start of the exercises on May 18. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cy427pq4jv9o
The President of Ukraine announced the increase in Ukrainian military forces in the Chernihiv and Kyiv regions amid the threat of a possible russian offensive from the territory of Belarus. The day before, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, also announced the likelihood of such an offensive. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c8r8mk16638o
In fact, this could mean anything: russia, through Belarus (or together) is going to attack Ukraine from the north. Or these exercises are being held near the border with Ukraine to distract attention, and the real goal is an attack on the Baltic countries. Perhaps Zelensky actually admits a mistake when in 2022 he denied that russia was preparing for an attack and is now really preparing for it. Or the Ukrainian authorities are now using this to intimidate Ukrainians and as a reason to increase mobilization, since the latter are increasingly resisting it.
In Lviv, locals damaged a bus of a mobilization center and pulled a man out of it. https://24tv.ua/lviv/lvovi-1905-perehozhi-poshkodili-bus-ttsk-vityagnuli-nogo-cholovika_n3071085
Those who were captured and sent to the front are unmotivated and simply run away, sometimes taking weapons. How else can one explain, for example, the shooting of police officers from a machine gun that recently occurred in the Khmelnytskyi region. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4g9zev819po
By the way, this again raises the question of the training of police officers, one of whom was killed and the other wounded during a shootout. Videos of such events quickly disappear from public sites, but if desired, they can be found.
There are also occasional reports of mistreatment of those forcibly conscripted into the army, where they are beaten; as a result of this, as well as due to illness, they die shortly after being conscripted. The 425th Separate Assault Regiment in Sklya said it was working with law enforcement and authorities to determine the circumstances of the deaths of five servicemen who died shortly after mobilization. In March, five recruits from the Ivano-Frankivsk region — Vasyl Voychuk, Vasyl Tsyurko, Yaroslav Mokriy, Petro Danyltsev, and Vitaliy Karata — died less than two weeks after mobilization. Relatives said the soldiers were beaten. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/polk-skelya-u-polku-poyasnili-smert-p-yatoh-viyskovih-50609315.html
Bild writes about how Ukrainians are fleeing to Romania through the mountains, risking their lives, and Ukraine's western border is guarded like a concentration camp. https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/das-ist-die-realitaet-grausam-auf-der-fluchtroute-der-ukrainischen-deserteure-69ea6b62c4c1fb99d23d9757
It seems ridiculous that the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine is launching a service called “Personal Account,” which will allow citizens to independently check for temporary restrictions on traveling abroad. The agency notes that the service only displays temporary restrictions imposed by a court or enforcement agency, in particular due to arrears in alimony or fines. Travel restrictions in connection with martial law are checked according to separate rules and are not displayed in this account. https://vsviti.com.ua/news/178832
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is proposing to grant Ukraine a new special status of “associate member” of the European Union, Spiegel reports. In a letter to EU leaders, Merz outlined his vision for a new format of cooperation that would see Ukraine integrate more deeply into European institutions before becoming a full member. At the same time, Ukraine would not initially have full membership and voting rights in all EU structures. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/europaeische-union-friedrich-merz-schlaegt-eu-sonderstatus-fuer-ukraine-vor-a-1f718a52-dc96-4039-9bee-6689fdcc5868
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Yesterday, May 23, the US Embassy in Kyiv reported that it had received information concerning a potentially significant air attack that may occur at any time over the next 24 hours. https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kyiv-ukraine-may-23-2026/
In the evening, the first drone was shot down nearby and we realized that we wouldn't be able to sleep at night. We watched several drone and missile hits from the window, and preliminary information about the consequences appeared in the morning.
russia has launched a large-scale wave of strikes against Ukraine, firing hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles. Four people were killed and more than 50 others injured in Kyiv and its surrounding areas, with explosions heard across the region overnight into Sunday, and reports of damage to residential buildings and schools. The Oreshnik hypersonic missile was used in a strike on Bila Tserkva, a city within the Kyiv region.
Ukraine's air force said that from 18:00 local time on Saturday, it detected 90 missiles and 600 drones. The attack hit more than 50 locations across Kyiv, according to Ukraine's national police. Residential buildings, shopping centres, and emergency service and police buildings were reportedly struck.
Outside Kyiv, the regions of Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Kropyvnytskyi, Odesa, Poltava, Sumy, and Zhytomyr have also come under attack, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyp6831yp5o
As usual, my friends and I exchanged messages in the morning, from which it followed that only one of us had a window on the balcony broken by the blast wave. Smoke from fires was visible in various parts of the city, and as always there will be no official information about the impact on sensitive areas. For example, only a small message on the official website of the oil and gas company reported serious damage to equipment, while large-scale fires broke out on critical infrastructure facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions. https://www.naftogaz.com/news/ponad-dobu-pid-udaramy-masovana-ataka-na-obyekty-naftohazu-na-kharkivshchyni-ta-poltavshchyni
It seems that more and more russian missiles are failing to be intercepted, and this may indicate a shortage of interceptor missiles.
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I heard about the attack. So glad to hear you were unhurt!
Putin's getting desperate to appear strong, for negotiation purposes, I assume.
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russia has threatened to launch a fresh wave of "systematic strikes" against Kyiv, days after carrying out one of its largest attacks on the Ukrainian capital since the start of the war. The new strikes will target "decision-making centres and command posts", alongside drone manufacturing facilities in the city, russia's foreign ministry said in a statement. Moscow has called for foreign nationals and diplomats to leave Kyiv "as soon as possible" and warned citizens to stay away from administrative and military buildings. Large-scale russian strikes on Saturday night killed four and injured about 100 people in Kyiv and other areas. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1e22n55zn4o
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Internal politics pose a considerable risk to the country’s prospects. Early in the war national unity was almost complete, at least in public. Since then wartime pressures and corruption scandals have reopened divisions; one involved some $100m and implicated members of the president’s circle. The scandals prompted the first real protests of the war and last November forced the resignation of Mr Zelensky’s powerful number two, Andriy Yermak. He was formally named as a suspect in May.
For all the president’s courage and diplomatic agility, Zelensky is thin-skinned. Rather than embrace a government of all talents, insiders say, he has drifted into an increasingly detached, Byzantine style of rule. His office controls much of the media landscape, including anonymous social-media accounts used to smear opponents. Anti-corruption investigators have been sabotaged with counter-prosecutions. Vasyl Maliuk, the former domestic intelligence chief, was demoted after refusing to help harass them. Kyrylo Budanov, the powerful military intelligence chief and an opponent of Mr Yermak, was sidelined with a “promotion” to head of the presidential office. “Zelensky doesn’t tolerate strong people,” complains a senior intelligence officer. “He has built a cult of loyalty around himself.”
Government sources say Mr Zelensky has ordered preparations for another two to three years of war. There is no persuasive reason why Ukraine cannot keep fighting that long. It will survive, though tarnished by militarism and wartime corruption. For some Ukrainians that is not enough. “What are we fighting for”, asks Ivan, “if we are no better than russia, just packing people into vans?”
Yet most are more optimistic. Ukraine will probably emerge as a damaged but functioning democracy and a new middle power: poorer, traumatised, but confident in its identity.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/05/26/ukraines-latest-challenge-is-how-to-deal-with-hope
The response was immediate.
The report by The Economist claiming that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had allegedly ordered preparations for another 2–3 years of war is a hoax that has already been debunked, said Dmytro Lytvyn, the president’s communications adviser. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1171389.html
Some people jokingly agree that the war is actually planned to last not 2 or 3 years, but 10, citing Angela Merkel’s words. “I hope that in 10 years, the war in Ukraine will be over, and that Ukraine will emerge as an independent, free, and sovereign country,” said former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PpNqLHjZ_c
The active phase of the russian-Ukrainian war could end as early as this fall, with a deadline of November 2026. But there is one key condition for its cessation: security guarantees to be provided to Ukraine by its partners. This was announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting with deputies from the ruling “Servant of the People” faction, according to Olga Vasilevska-Smaglyuk, a deputy from that faction. https://today.ua/490205-na-zustrichi-z-deputatami-svoyeyi-frakciyi-zelenskij-nazvav-datu-zavershennya-garyachoyi-fazi-vijni/
According to The Wall Street Journal, Ukrainian air defense forces have learned to shoot down up to 97% of drones thanks to new tactical approaches and the combined use of various weapons systems. https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-iran-war-807d697d
Unfortunately, this cannot be said about ballistic missiles. Therefore, president Volodymyr Zelensky sent a letter to U.S. President Donald Trump warning about Ukraine's worsening shortage of air defense systems, particularly anti-ballistic missile capabilities, the Kyiv Independent has learned. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-sends-trump-urgent-letter-warning-of-critical-missile-defense-shortages/
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that negotiations involving Washington aimed at ending russia’s war against Ukraine have been suspended due to a lack of progress, but the United States is ready to rejoin them if there is a chance of achieving a result. He made this statement to reporters during a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Sweden, according to a Ukrinform correspondent. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/4126318-ssa-vihodat-z-mirnih-peregovorah-miz-ukrainou-ta-rosieu-rubio.html
The United Kingdom has rejected NATO’s plan to establish an additional mechanism for funding military aid to Ukraine, according to The Telegraph. According to the publication, London, along with France, Spain, Italy, and Canada, opposed the initiative to allocate 0.25% of the Alliance member states’ GDP to military support for Ukraine. As a result, the proposal was blocked during internal NATO discussions. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/05/24/britain-rejects-nato-plan-for-extra-ukraine-military-aid/
The Czech initiative to procure artillery ammunition for Ukraine has lost half of its international donors — the number of countries funding the program has dropped from 18 to 9. This was reported by the Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/f5dd7bd9-6da8-438b-bf80-1f942b91333d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
It is obvious that the decisions of European countries are strongly influenced by the behavior of the United States, which is no longer considered a reliable ally. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has tried to reassure allies over US decisions on troop deployments in Europe. Rubio's intervention at the end of a Nato foreign ministers' meeting in Sweden came after President Donald Trump said the US would send an extra 5,000 troops to Poland. That decision was a week after a planned deployment of 4,000 troops to the country was cancelled and days after an announcement that US troops would be pulled out of Germany. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cedpz9669deo
https://news.liga.net/en/war/news/us-to-withdraw-5-000-troops-from-europe-nato-commander
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I often think about Ukraine and the people who live in it. For me, people are the most important thing in any country and a country is what it is solely because of the people who live in it. The authorities understand this too, but their attitude towards people is beyond my understanding, as are the decisions they make. Perhaps that is why I have never cooperated with this regime. Like many other people, I have a completely different vision of what Ukraine should be and what we should leave it to our descendants.
The Verkhovna Rada is working on establishing a new Ministry of Human Capital. It will be responsible not only for internally displaced persons, but also for Ukrainians who have suffered as a result of the war or have left the country. Parliament is already preparing a presentation of the concept for the future agency. This was announced on the air of Rano.LIVE by Maksym Tkachenko, a member of parliament from the ruling “Servant of the People” faction. https://news.novyny.live/rada-gotuie-stvorennia-ministerstva-liudskogo-kapitalu-328194.html
Some see this as the beginning of a division of Ukrainians into different categories. For example, those who did not leave will receive the status of “Participant in the Heroic Resistance” and 1,000 hryvnias. Those who left and returned will face restrictions on their rights, a ban on voting, and an additional tax upon their return. Those who do not wish to return will have their assets confiscated...
This is, of course, a gross exaggeration, but in order to maintain power, the “divide and conquer” principle is more likely to be applied than not. Another grim joke about how the government can’t bring living Ukrainians back from abroad, so they’ve turned to the dead, emerged in response to a strange and, in my opinion, extremely ill-timed initiative to reburial the leader of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, Colonel Andriy Melnyk of the UNR Army, and his wife, Sofia Fedak-Melnyk. The procession was attended by President Volodymyr Zelensky, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Budanov, his deputy Iryna Vereshchuk, Speaker of Parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk, Minister of Veterans Affairs Nataliia Kalmykova, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sibiga. https://hromadske.ua/suspilstvo/264655-vin-povernuvsia-v-inshu-ukrayinu-providnyka-oun-andriia-melnyka-perepokhovaly-na-natsionalnomu-viyskovomu-memorialnomu-kladovyshchi
This should raise the fighting spirit of Ukrainians, but it probably won't impress those who are being forced to fight and the way the mobilization is organized scares people away even more. Dmytro Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada’s Commissioner for Human Rights, stated that territorial recruitment and social support centers (mobilization centers) are increasingly becoming places where citizens are deprived of their freedom. https://sud.ua/uk/news/ukraine/362307-dmitriy-lubinets-ttsk-vse-chasche-prevraschayutsya-v-mesta-nesvobody-grazhdan
There’s been a strange report that a 46-year-old man in Ternopil committed suicide in the restroom of a mobilization center using a firearm. https://unn.ua/news/u-ternopoli-cholovik-zastrelyvsia-u-vbyralni-ttsk
It’s interesting—where did he get the gun, considering that even cell phones are confiscated from those who go there? Why did he decide to kill himself rather than someone else? It’s no surprise that many people believe he was murdered there.
Almost every day, videos emerge from different parts of the country of people spontaneously fighting off captured men and smashing the cars of the “man-hunters”—as people commonly refer to the staff at mobilization centers. And how many such cases are not caught on video and not published?
https://t.me/gnapinfo/3807
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1027189469662946
https://t.me/dnepr_operativ/107538
On May 21, representatives of the mobilization center, accompanied by police, stopped a veteran’s car in Kyiv. Eight people wearing balaclavas surrounded the man, after which one of them struck the veteran on the head and another sprayed pepper spray in his face. The police have opened a criminal investigation, and the Army Command has decided to transfer those responsible for the incident involving the veteran in Kyiv to combat units. https://censor.net/ua/n4004744
Thus, military service is now openly recognized as a punishment, but the authorities continue to "improve" mobilization in their usual way. The government has once again revised the criteria for reserving workers and raised the salary thresholds and criteria for designating businesses as critical, which will reduce the number of workers reserved. It seems this will once again affect only ordinary people working in the real economy and will not impact those in show business or—who knows—anyone else who can buy their freedom with money. https://me.gov.ua/News/Detail/023c6dd8-1328-4997-83e6-7568698c46ba?lang=uk-UA&title=UriadUdoskonalivSistemuBroniuvannia
The government is working on a mechanism that will involve about 2 million Ukrainian men who have not updated their military registration data and are actually hiding from mobilization in the economy or in the armed forces. This was announced by the Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine Oleksiy Sobolev during a telethon. According to him, it is necessary to find options for how to bring these citizens out of the "gray zone". "We are working with the Ministry of Defense to attract this resource to the economy and for the needs of the defense forces. Because during martial law, like today, a person has to either work or fight," the minister said. https://businessua.com/vlada/uryad-vzyavsya-za-2-milioni-nevidimih-cholovikiv.html
For the first time since 2022, the State Tax Service has not fulfilled the budget revenue plan, and the situation with VAT administration remains problematic. This was stated by Danylo Hetmantsev, the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Finance Committee, in an interview with SPEKA. https://speka.ua/business/podatkova-vperse-z-2022-roku-ne-vikonala-plan-nadxodzen-getmancev-v7l826
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Here we are, on the last day of May.
Overnight, russian forces launched 229 drones at Ukraine; 212 were shot down, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.
Over the past 24 hours, russian forces shot down 405 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones. 216 drones were shot down overnight, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported.
In the Rostov region, an oil depot in the Matveevo-Kurgan district caught fire following a Ukrainian attack. The fire spread over an area of 3,600 square meters. https://www.bbc.com/russian/live/cy52r3d960lt
A russian drone has hit a block of flats in Romania near border with Ukraine two days ago, causing a fire and injuring two people, Romanian officials say. Romania's defence ministry said two F-16 fighter jets were scrambled after the drones were detected. Brig Gen Gheorghe Maxim said the army had only had four minutes from when the drone was detected to the moment of impact. The country's foreign ministry said Bucharest had "requested measures to accelerate the transfer of anti-drone capabilities to Romania" from Nato. The alliance's secretary general, Mark Rutte, said he had spoken to President Dan and told him the alliance "stands ready to defend every inch of allied territory". https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93x4nxlkjeo
Smart tech is making war a dumber choice. Smaller, weaker countries can defend themselves more easily with cheap, deadly kit, writes The Economist in the article "The new shape of war" https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/05/28/smart-tech-is-making-war-a-dumber-choice
But no matter how advanced technology may be, it is still people who pay the highest price. And the biggest problem is that, no matter how senseless a war may seem, it is not those who are directly fighting or losing their property, health, and lives who start it. There is also no hope that people will start thinking before they vote in elections and support the bastards who start wars or make the country an attractive target for attack.
So wars continue and will continue, turning countries into testing grounds for new weapons. Foundation Future Industries, a start-up founded in 2024, aims to leverage humanoid robots for military and industrial work, rather than household tasks and the service sector. The start-up has already tested its humanoid robots in Ukraine and is aiming to soon bring its technology to the U.S. military, writes CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/30/humanoid-robots-ukraine-war-foundation-military-ai.html
Although, in my opinion, people will remain a cheaper and more efficient alternative to robots for a long time to come. At least in Ukraine, where copying russia’s worst practices leads to disgraceful results. I don't know what results former prisoners show on the front, but one case that became publicly known caught my attention. I don’t know how former inmates are performing on the front lines, but one case that became public caught my attention. In central Ukraine, a soldier with a criminal record shot and killed another soldier with an automatic weapon. According to the suspect, he was supposed to be guarding the other soldiers, one of whom decided to flee, so he started shooting at him. https://suspilne.media/kropyvnytskiy/1317349-so-vidbuvalosa-v-oleksandrivci-na-kirovogradsini-koli-zastrelili-vijskovogo-perebig-podij-i-detali-pro-pidozruvanogo/ The circumstances of the incident are being investigated, but it would be worth figuring out what good comes from such a mobilization, as a result of which one will most likely return to prison, and the other died without ever reaching the front lines. And how many more cases like this go unknown to the public?
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We’ve finally seen the long-promised russian air attack, and today I managed to get three hours of sleep at best. I felt terrible last night, and this morning I’m completely wiped out, even though I have to work today. I really need to see a doctor, but I’m always short on either money or time.
The idea of starting my own company, even with partners, meant taking on most of the work myself, and that’s pretty tough. By the way, a partner who lives near a military factory—which was hit by ballistic missiles again—wrote that he’s alive, so we’re continuing our little business.
Interestingly, there were almost no drones in Kyiv this time, but there were a lot of ballistic missiles. The Patriot battery, which is located not far from me, is still trying to intercept them, making more noise than the explosions of russian missiles.
russian strikes have killed at least ten people across Ukraine, six in Dnipro and four in the capital Kyiv, marking one of Moscow's largest assaults in recent months. Dozens were also injured, including several children, after overnight airstrikes hit apartment blocks, with emergency crews racing to find people feared trapped under rubble in Kyiv, writes BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y8nq8ljqwo
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-nichna-ataka-rosii-dnipro-kyiv-zahybli/33770684.html
Anyone who follows the news might get the impression that the russians are wasting a lot of missiles just to destroy old apartment buildings and kill a few dozen innocent Ukrainians. And only later do we find out what their real objective was and where all those missiles that weren’t intercepted actually hit.
In any case, the overall effectiveness of such attacks is not really that great and resembles the U.S. attacks on Iran. In both cases, the damage turns out to be less than the attacking side would have liked, given the number of missiles and drones expended. Similarly, Ukraine’s numerous drone attacks, primarily on occupied territories and the European part of russia, do not have a decisive impact on russia. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cpvpg4mglw4o
Thus, a war of attrition continues, and although Ukraine has the support of the West, this support never gives Ukraine a clear advantage. Moreover, from time to time, it seems that as soon as Ukraine gains an advantage on the battlefield, the aid immediately diminishes. Even the promised old Grinspan fighter jets, which Sweden has pledged to transfer over the next few years, will only strengthen Ukraine’s air defense and will most likely never be used to strike russia. https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/shveciya-oficiyno-pidtverdila-peredachu-ukrajini-vinishchuvachiv-gripen-50611687.html
Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Office of the President, stated at the “Security Architecture” forum in Kyiv that ending the active phase of the war by November is “realistic” and announced the arrival of negotiators from the United States in Kyiv. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cn0p64nj164o
Perhaps this optimism is one of the reasons why the government has no intention of radically changing its attitude toward its most important resource—its own people. Perhaps they hope the war will end before the people do. Yet it is exactly a change in attitude toward the people that could radically boost the effectiveness of the army and the economy and provide the advantage that Ukraine so desperately lacks.
EU capitals are considering whether to exclude Ukrainian men of military age from any future extension of the bloc’s temporary protection scheme that has provided shelter to more than four million people fleeing russia’s invasion. The proposal emerged during discussions on the future of the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive (TPD), which allows Ukrainians to live and work across Europe without going through national asylum systems. The scheme, activated after russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, currently runs until March 2027 following an extension agreed last year. https://www.euractiv.com/news/exclusive-eu-weighs-excluding-military-age-ukrainian-men-from-extended-protection-scheme/
It seems logical and to be expected that Europe will keep only those who work and have obtained legal status. Europe is also interested in Ukrainians fighting in Ukraine. During the Aurora 26 international exercises on the island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea, Ukrainian FPV drone operators effectively became a major lesson for the entire alliance—and not a flattering one for NATO. Just 17 Ukrainian soldiers forced the exercises to be halted several times: NATO troops simply couldn’t keep up with the pace of modern drone warfare. https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-prepares-a-baltic-fortress-to-head-off-putin/
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Ukraine has asked Germany to provide dozens of additional Patriot interceptor missiles from its stocks this year as Kyiv seeks to bolster its air defenses against intensifying russian strikes, according to people familiar with the matter. In April, Kyiv secured a €4 billion ($4.6 billion) military aid package from Berlin that includes funding for hundreds of missiles for the US-made Patriot air-defense system. The German government is reviewing Ukraine’s request and has not yet made a decision, though an announcement could come shortly before or during the NATO summit in July, writes Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-04/kyiv-seeks-patriot-missiles-from-germany-to-boost-air-defenses
According to estimates by Ukrainian military intelligence, in 2026, russia’s military-industrial complex plans to supply up to 700 9M723 ballistic missiles for the Iskander tactical missile system—the same number as last year. The monthly production rate for these missiles remains at 55–60 units.
In addition, the enemy has more than doubled production of RM-48U strike missiles for S-300PM/S-400-type air defense systems, which the occupiers use to strike ground targets. In 2026, production of over 480 such missiles is planned, whereas in 2025 this figure was over 200 units. Currently, the monthly production rate is up to 50 units. This year, russia also plans to deliver up to 60 “Kinzhal” hypersonic aeroballistic missiles.
Given this rate of ballistic missile production, the enemy can deploy up to 100 such missiles each month to strike targets on Ukrainian territory, while maintaining a steady level of their stockpiles. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2026/06/04/8037729/
The occupying country has the capacity to produce about 120 ballistic missiles per month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during an address to participants at the Ukraine–NATO Council meeting in Kyiv. https://oboronka.mezha.ua/rf-viroblyati-do-120-balistichnih-raket-na-misyac-311932/
In a recent interview with CBS News, Zelensky stated that a path to negotiations with russia must be found before the onset of winter, but that this depends on the pressure exerted on Moscow. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-president-face-the-nation-transcript-05-31-2026/
The head of the Office of the President, Kyrylo Budanov, also stated at the 2026 “Security Architecture” Forum that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had instructed officials to try to end the war before winter. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-budanov-prypynennya-viyny/33770335.html
Well, no one is hurling accusations of treason over the word “end” anymore—a word that has quietly replaced “victory.” And no one is throwing hysterical fits over the 1991 borders anymore. Everyone has already forgotten about the numerous victory plans presented for three years in a row. Everyone accepted the president’s decision to cede territory as a matter of course, since that is precisely what follows the word “end.” No one is organizing angry rallies under slogans like “we won’t give up a single centimeter of mined land.” No one sees the word “end” as the end of all the imposed narratives about “unbreakable intransigence” that have been fed to us unilaterally all these years. And this was confirmed by the popular figure Budanov, who called the task of ending the war by winter “correct, timely, and well-thought-out.”
The only question is, will russia agree to this? Although The Atlantic in its article Putin Can No Longer Hide His Catastrophe believes that the russian dictator has lost control of the narrative, russian propaganda at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum stated something completely different. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/05/putin-lost-control-russia/687269/
President Vladimir putin faced two rival outlines of russia's future as he hosted his premier annual investment conference with the war in Ukraine unabated. Some participants at the glitzy St Petersburg International Economic Forum said russia should fight on and gird for global confrontation with the West, writes Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/putin-faces-rival-visions-war-peace-russias-davos-2026-06-04/
russian business newspaper Kommersant reported on June 3 that Kremlin-affiliated russian oligarch and Orthodox nationalist Konstantin Malofeev and russian ultranationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin presented several “future scenarios” for russia at SPIEF. The presentation slides outlined “good,” “inertial” (continuing), and “bad” scenarios for 2036 and 2050 and divided perceived threats to russia into five categories, including geopolitics, ideology and politics, demography, economy, and technologies. The “good” scenario includes the russian occupation of Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, and other Ukrainian cities and the collapse of the European Union (EU) by 2036 and other russian narratives about alleged imminent victory in Ukraine. The presentation’s “bad” scenario included a russian military defeat in Ukraine, Ukraine joining NATO, the loss of russian influence over post-Soviet countries by 2036, and the “colonization of russia” by 2050. The presentation’s “continuing” 2036 scenario speculated that russia would use nuclear weapons if the military situation in Ukraine remained the same, effectively threatening that russia will use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if the war in Ukraine continues its current path. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3-2026/
Others highlighted the economic benefits to be reaped from ending a war that came almost to the forum's doorstep when Ukrainian drones hit a St Petersburg oil terminal and naval base on Wednesday, sending smoke billowing over parts of the city. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0e2vqd3j1vo
https://censor.net/ua/photonews/4006446/moment-udaru-po-peterburzkomu-naftovomu-terminalu-potrapyv-na-video
russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that russia is carrying out systematic strikes against Ukraine in response to attacks on its territory. “In general, I can say that a special military operation is underway to prevent such strikes,” Peskov said, cynically confusing cause and effect. https://apostrophe.ua/politics/u-kremli-zahovorili-pro-sistemnu-vidpovid-pislja-nalotu-droniv-na-sankt-peterburh.html
It’s possible that the russians are actually bluffing before they’re completely exhausted, but we can’t rule out the possibility that, faced with the threat of losing power and his life, putin will issue the same kind of insane orders that Hitler gave before his death.
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The last few days in Kyiv have been quiet, but every day the russians continue to attack other regions of Ukraine with drones and missiles. There is currently no reason to talk about a nationwide food shortage due to russian attacks, but the russians are systematically destroying food warehouses and production facilities. On June 3, a direct drone hit completely destroyed the distribution center of the largest retailer in Ukraine, the ATB corporation, in the suburbs of Dnipro - one of the largest logistics hubs of the network in southern Ukraine. On June 5, the aggressors used drones to strike the food industry enterprise "Yagotynske for Children" in the Brovary district of the Kyiv region. https://informator.ua/uk/rosiyani-sistemno-znishchuyut-prodovolchi-skladi-ta-virobnictva-ekspert-skazav-chogo-ochikuvati-ukrajincyam
russia says Ukraine has launched an "unprecedented attack" on and around St Petersburg, as the city hosted the final day of an economic forum. More than 140 drones were shot down over the surrounding Leningrad region, governor Aleksandr Drozdenko said, while the city's governor, Alexander Beglov, urged residents to stay indoors for the first time since russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his forces had hit russia's arsenals and a naval base, calling it a just response to russian attacks.
It comes a day after russian President Vladimir putin said there was no point in meeting Zelensky, who had called for direct talks to end the war. In his open letter to Putin on Thursday, Zelensky called for a ceasefire and face-to-face negotiations with the russian leader to end the war, which began with russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg7498kz808o
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy2ypyp4x4o
This strange, rambling letter, with its openly offensive and humiliating passages, left putin no room to interpret it as an invitation to peace. Rather, it was addressed to Ukrainians and the West as a demonstration of his desire to continue the war. https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/vidkritij-list-prezidentu-rosijskoyi-federaciyi-vid-preziden-104769
In response, the russians invited Zelensky to come to Moscow.
Among other things, Zelensky (or whoever did it for him) wrote about russia’s complete dependence on China. China’s role is very interesting, in general. China is undoubtedly interested in a weakened russia, which is transforming from a competitor into a low-tech supplier of raw materials. Given that without Chinese components, neither the russian nor the Ukrainian army would have been able to develop drone production to this extent, the same can be said about Ukraine’s dependence on China.
On the other hand, Ukraine should make efforts to become China's partner in the region, turning its geographical location into an advantage, becoming a bridge between East and West on the European continent. With access to Western and Chinese technologies, which compete with each other in the world, Ukraine could become an extremely powerful country.
Unless russia resorts to a nuclear strike or forced mobilization, which could quickly increase the size of its army many times over, expanding the use of missiles will finally allow Ukraine to gain the upper hand. This very cautious assumption is based on the fact that Western military aid, which has been significantly reduced under Trump, is likely to gradually increase again.
NATO countries are considering a new €70 billion military funding commitment for Ukraine that would be unveiled during the alliance’s summit in Ankara next month, four NATO diplomats told POLITICO. The proposal — circulated by Germany last month — would include a new mechanism to increase transparency around funding for Ukraine, the diplomats said. https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-allies-weigh-new-e70b-military-aid-pledge-for-ukraine/
The House passed legislation Thursday that would aid Ukraine and sanction key segments of the russian economy, overriding objections from Republican leaders who warned the bill would undermine negotiations designed to achieve a comparable but stronger result. The legislation, sponsored by Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., seeks to cement U.S. assistance for Ukraine by providing more than $1 billion in security and reconstruction aid. It would make another $8 billion available for Ukraine’s defense through loans. https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-congress-aid-trump-discharge-petition-c01c9e068b63d195d26e3134ed586a71
Perhaps successes on the front lines will also increase the number of people willing to fight in Ukraine. But for now, the situation regarding mobilization remains grim. On the one hand, there is high social tension; on the other, there are questions of effectiveness. Stories about how an elderly or sick person who has been mobilized is shuttled around for months, offered to combat units that refuse to accept them, and then sent home with a substantial sum of money are no longer isolated incidents.
The reform of medical-social examinations and military medical commissions has changed procedures but has not resolved practical issues. People face the non-issuance of documents, formalistic decisions, delays in evaluations, and difficulties in proving their actual state of health in specific life situations. The situation is complicated not only by procedural violations and improperly prepared documents, but also by the fact that the law does not require the reasoning behind a decision on suitability for service to be stated. Consequently, it is very difficult to appeal a certificate that does not include an assessment of the submitted documents and the examinations conducted. https://unba.org.ua/news/11794-novi-pravila-stari-problemi-u-naau-obgovorili-robotu-ekopfo-ta-vlk.html
Attitudes towards soldiers in the army also vary, but this issue hardly ever becomes public due to strict censorship.
The Military Ombudsman from time to time makes statements about the need to regulate the issue of liability of officials of mobilization centers for violations, although in my opinion nothing additional needs to be regulated. There are enough laws according to which violators can be punished, but law enforcement agencies almost always turn a blind eye to this.
According to government data, about 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers have at some point been away without leave, many fleeing within days of arriving at basic training. To fix the problem, military commanders had been asking for punishments: rules that would freeze bank accounts, revoke driver’s licenses or increase criminal liability.
But the issue of desertion from a military unit, in addition to its criminal-law implications, requires a separate analysis of its underlying causes. These include unaddressed reports, problems with rotation and medical care, psychological exhaustion, and the lack of effective mechanisms for appealing the inaction of the command. These issues were discussed during the roundtable “Problematic Aspects of Military Service, Ways to Resolve Them,” initiated by the Ukrainian National Bar Association. A servicemember’s motivation cannot be based solely on fear of accountability. If a person faces humiliation, disregard for their rights, or the inability to resolve a legitimate issue within the service, this does not strengthen discipline; on the contrary, it erodes trust in the system. https://unba.org.ua/news/11790-ne-lishe-pokarannya-u-naau-obgovorili-problemu-szch.html
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I had not heard reports that Z's letter to P had contained denigrating passages - no mention of that in US reports, at least none that I've seen. Hardly the way to make peace overtures!
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I had not heard reports that Z's letter to P had contained denigrating passages - no mention of that in US reports, at least none that I've seen. Hardly the way to make peace overtures!
It seems to me that the purpose of this letter is anything but achieving peace through negotiations and concluding a peace agreement, at least with putin. This was confirmed directly by Zelensky, who stated that the open letter proposing an end to the war, which he recently sent to Kremlin leader Vladimir putin, yielded “the result that was needed.” He said this during a media briefing alongside the leaders of Northern European and Baltic countries. “I got a result, but I can’t share what that result was right now. But I did it, and I had a goal in mind when I sent the letter to putin, and I think I got the result I needed,” the President of Ukraine noted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo6eeILFrJQ
Of course, the serfs don't need to know about this.
In any case, the appearance and content of this letter must be considered in the context of other circumstances. It turned out that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met in Kyiv with russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who conveyed a message from the russian side regarding possible negotiations. He spoke about this in an interview with Sky News. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/08/ukraine-war-briefing-zelenskyy-roman-abramovich-kyiv-meeting-putin-message
In other words, for ordinary Ukrainians, contact with Russians is subject to sanctions and criminal liability, but this, of course, does not apply to the hypocritical authorities. Not to mention that it turns out russians can travel to Ukraine illegally. So, are the borders closed only from the inside and only for Ukrainians? This is, of course, sarcasm, but a law that does not apply to everyone is no longer a law.
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On the night of Wednesday, June 10, russian forces launched a massive attack using strike drones on three major Ukrainian cities: Kharkiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia. According to local authorities, strikes and damage have been reported in residential areas, and there are casualties among the civilian population. https://today.ua/490732-rf-masovano-vdarila-odrazu-po-troh-velikih-mistah-ukrayini-ye-rujnuvannya-ta-postrazhdali-foto/
Although attacks on cities like Odesa or Kharkiv continue virtually every day. https://glavred.net/war/rf-udarila-po-odesse-povrezhdeny-transport-ostanovka-i-energoobekt-est-ranenye-10771244.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c8j272g8d91o
The VNIIR-PROGRESS facility in Cheboksary, russia, which is one of the key enterprises of the russian military-industrial complex, has been attacked. The facility manufactures navigation equipment and devices capable of operating in the presence of electronic jamming. In particular, the plant manufactures “Kometa” series navigation antennas, which are crucial for the russian military. The primary function of this antenna is to protect weapons from electronic warfare systems. Thanks to their compact size and high efficiency, “Kometa” antennas are widely used in russian weaponry. They are installed on Shahed strike drones, Orlan reconnaissance drones, Iskander-M missiles, cruise missiles, and guided aerial bombs equipped with UMPK modules. https://zn.ua/ukr/war/prilit-u-cheboksarakh-u-rf-atakuvali-oboronnij-zavod-shcho-robit-zakhist-dlja-shakhediv-ta-iskanderiv.html
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have confirmed that they struck the Chongar Bridge—one of the two bridges connecting Crimea to the mainland—again on the night of June 9. The attack completely destroyed the bridge. https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/zsu-povtorno-urazili-chongarskiy-mist-ruh-perekrito-na-trivaliy-chas-50614801.html
The occupation administration banned passenger transportation along a number of strategic routes, closing the "land corridor" to Crimea and key routes in Luhansk Oblast, using the roads exclusively for military transportation. https://cxid.media/news/rosiiany-zaboronyly-pasazhyrski-perevezennia-trasamy-do-krymu-ta-luhanshchyny/
Against this backdrop russia's deputy foreign minister has said the country is prepared to use all means "including nuclear ones" for its security. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-russian-drone-hits-extremely-critical-nuclear-facility-near-chernobyl-as-zelenskyy-expected-in-london-12541713
The situation could change with the development of long-range weapons, as Ukraine has so far only been able to ramp up production of short-range drones, and only a small number of drones with limited payloads can reach medium ranges. They are capable of setting oil refineries on fire, but cannot destroy bridges or inflict other major damage on russian territory. Thus, most of the Ukrainian army’s successes so far have been limited to the occupied territories.
It is also not yet clear whether the gasoline shortage in the occupied territories will affect the russians’ ability to conduct military operations, or whether this is an attempt to worsen the population’s conditions in the hope that they will revolt. I do not believe the latter, since russian propaganda is skillfully exploiting this to turn the local population against Ukraine. Although, in reality, the answer may be much simpler—the Ukrainian army is attacking whatever it can with the resources at its disposal.
What upsets me is that relations with Poland are deteriorating again. As we know, whenever Ukraine and Poland are at odds, russia always stands to gain. During his trip to Poland, Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, met with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Vladislav Kosiniak-Kamysh. The main topic of discussion was Volodymyr Zelensky's decision to name one of Ukraine's military units after the "Heroes of the UPA." Ukrainian Insurgent Army (Ukrainska Povstanska Armiia, abbreviated UPA) https://www.polskieradio.pl/399/7975/Artykul/3695451,budanow-w-warszawie-rozmowy-po-sporze-o-bohaterow-upa
In Warsaw, this move immediately became the subject of heated political debate. In Kyiv, however, it sparked concern due to its extremely poor timing: the scandal could significantly impact the course of the major conference on Ukraine’s recovery, which is set to take place in Gdańsk at the end of June.
If the current fire in relations between Kyiv and Warsaw cannot be quickly extinguished, anti-Ukrainian rhetoric may once again become one of the main themes of the campaign ahead of the critically important Polish parliamentary elections scheduled for next year.
The procedure initiated by Polish President Karol Nawrocki to strip Volodymyr Zelensky of Poland’s highest state award—the Order of the White Eagle—can be seen as a symbol of this crisis.
The problem lies in the fundamentally different perceptions of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army in Ukraine and Poland.
In mainstream Ukrainian historiography, the UPA is viewed as an underground military organization that operated from 1942 until at least the late 1950s and set itself the goal of creating an independent Ukrainian state. During World War II, UPA units fought simultaneously against Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. In the contemporary Ukrainian narrative, this struggle against significantly stronger opponents is associated with the current war that russia is waging against Ukraine. The black-and-red flags associated with the UPA have in recent years become one of the unofficial symbols of the Ukrainian military.
During the war, the UPA also fought against the Polish Home Army (which was essentially the Polish counterpart to the UPA) in the territory of Ukraine, which had been part of Poland prior to World War II. A large number of Ukrainians and Poles, mostly civilians, were killed in the clashes. The UPA also continued to carry out guerrilla operations after the war in the territory that had already become part of the Soviet Union. My grandfather told me that he survived only because he was warned of the attack in advance and hid in the forest for some time. And although during the Soviet era, Polish crimes against Ukrainians were not publicized due to the russians’ unwillingness to recognize Ukrainian independence and subjectivity, in Poland, accusing Ukrainians of genocide has always been part of official policy and history. Although no one knows the exact figures, it is likely that more Ukrainians died than Poles.
In Ukraine, the events in Volyn are linked to the anti-Ukrainian national policy of pre-war Poland, and there is discussion of the role that Soviet intelligence agencies may have played in those events. But in Polish historical tradition—and, just as importantly, in the view of most Poles—the UPA is a criminal organization responsible for the mass killings of ethnic Poles in Volyn between 1943 and 1945.
It is noteworthy that some Poles (to be fair, not all) constantly accuse Ukrainians of the Volyn Massacre, but fail to mention Operation Vistula and other crimes against Ukrainians. They also avoid mentioning crimes committed by russians against Poles, such as the execution of Poles in Katyn in 1940 or the assassination of their president and members of the government in Smolensk in 2010.
Some media outlets say there was an informal agreement allegedly reached in early 2022 between Volodymyr Zelensky and then-Polish President Andrzej Duda. It allegedly stipulated that Kyiv would refrain from glorifying certain figures associated with the UPA, whom Poland holds responsible for the events in Volyn, while Warsaw, in turn, would not demand that the Ukrainian authorities condemn the entire Ukrainian nationalist movement of the interwar period and World War II.
For a time, this agreement held. However, the situation changed last year when Karol Nawrocki—a historian with nationalist views who actively used anti-Ukrainian rhetoric during his election campaign—was elected president of Poland.
In the Polish media, however, a different explanation dominates. There, it is believed that Zelensky was well aware of the reaction this decree would provoke in Poland but deliberately took this step, hoping to gain certain domestic political dividends.
Which ones, exactly? Polish observers have put forward several theories. Some suggest that the Ukrainian president was attempting to divert the Ukrainian public’s attention from a corruption scandal involving the former head of his Office, Andriy Yermak. It is important to note that Zelensky’s decision was condemned by all influential political forces in Poland.
If the current dynamics in relations between Kyiv and Warsaw persist, this could lead to Ukrainophobia becoming a key theme in the campaign for the Sejm elections scheduled for 2027, and then turning into a permanent trend in Polish politics. And that certainly does not bode well for either Ukraine or Poland. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cn0veqrp45yo
In any case, there is a feeling that Ukrainian diplomacy and cultural work are not enough to promote an alternative version of those events in Poland and the world to change the attitude of Poles. For example, a good film could be made to show those events in a light favorable to Ukraine. It is important that this is not primitive propaganda, which can create the opposite effect.
It should also be taken into account that at a deeper level this may be a manifestation of the Poles' fear and subconscious awareness that Ukraine, if successful, will become a competitor for Poland and create a confrontation for regional dominance. Of course, good relations between Ukraine and Poland, which, if combined, can become a major power in Europe, are a threat to both russia and the rest of Europe. This may explain much of what is happening...
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This is an interesting dynamic impacting Russia that had heretofore escaped my attention:
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/russias-chechnya-problem/?tpa=ZjQwYWZkOTdlOTgzYjEzMGNkMDQ1NjE3ODE3OTgxODBhMGQ4YTc&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Fgeopoliticalfutures.com%2Frussias-chechnya-problem%2F%3Ftpa%3DZjQwYWZkOTdlOTgzYjEzMGNkMDQ1NjE3ODE3OTgxODBhMGQ4YTc&utm_content&utm_campaign=PAID%20-%20Everything%20as%20it%27s%20published
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This is an interesting dynamic impacting Russia that had heretofore escaped my attention:
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/russias-chechnya-problem
This issue is important for russia if you look at it not from the perspective of a problematic region with oil that Russia does not need, but with the understanding that for Russia the Caucasus is the same buffer from the south as Ukraine is from the west, which it has always tried to control and expand. Geopolitically, the Caucasus is the goal of Turkey, which already has a strong alliance with Azerbaijan. After Armenia's defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, the positions of Turkey and Azerbaijan have strengthened, and those of russia and Armenia have worsened. Influence on Kazakhstan has also passed from russia to China. So russia has never been in such a bad state as it is now in terms of geopolitical position and influence. And the only thing left of russia's past greatness is its Soviet nuclear weapons stockpiles.
In a moment of gloomy geopolitical news, Ukraine has become a bright spot. Kyiv is faring better on the battlefield than at any time in years. russia’s costs are surging even as its military gains shrink. If Ukraine can sustain this trajectory, perhaps it can finally force Moscow to make a decent peace. But the optimism should be tempered: There are nagging questions about how long this period of Ukrainian advantage will last and how dangerous a cornered russian President Vladimir putin could be. Despite the successes of Ukrainian forces, experts warn that the Russian army remains a dangerous adversary, and further escalation by Moscow could create new threats to European security, writes Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-12/ukraine-s-drones-are-beating-russia-for-now-at-least
russian dictator Vladimir putin is hoping for a Hail Mary winter offensive against Ukraine, experts said — as russia’s economy is in a death spiral and the war-mongering leader is growing increasingly desperate. After a lackluster spring offensive left Russia losing more territory than it conquered for the first time in three years, the Kremlin is now likely eyeing a large-scale assault come winter to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine, Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow with the CSIS think tank’s Europe, ussia, and Eurasia Program, told The Post.
The expert warned that the strikes would be even larger than last winter’s, when russia fired a record number of drones and missiles daily against critical civilian infrastructure. russia will also likely expand its attacks further by targeting Ukrainian railways to disrupt supply lines and attacking water infrastructure, added Kateryna Stepanenko, the Russia team lead and deputy director of the Cognitive Warfare Project at the Institute for the Study of War think tank. https://nypost.com/2026/06/10/world-news/putin-planning-hail-mary-winter-offensive-against-ukraine-experts-say/
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Surprisingly, there haven't been any major attacks from the russians lately. Have they really lost steam? But almost imperceptibly for society, other bombs were exploding, this time informational.
Remember the russian statements in 2022 about American biological laboratories in Ukraine, which were called disinformation? https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1873584/
The russians then said that they should stop the development of biological weapons. At the time, both the Americans and the Ukrainian authorities denied it. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-oon-biolaboratoriyi-rf/32104946.html How could we not believe them?
Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, who is set to step down in a few days, has released a report on “U.S. biolaboratories” that are allegedly located around the world, including in Ukraine. The intelligence agency’s press release states that “after months of searching through the intelligence community’s archives and files,” Director Hubbard decided to disclose “new evidence of long-standing U.S. government funding of more than 120 biolabs in over 30 countries.”
"These biolabs include facilities in Ukraine that may be at risk of compromise due to the ongoing russia-Ukraine war. For example, the intelligence community previously warned that a U.S.-funded biolaboratory in Ukraine likely contains dangerous pathogens and remains vulnerable to ongoing threats of attack, seizure, or damage by russia," the National Intelligence report states.
https://www.dni.gov/files/BIOLAB_Slides.pdf
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c4gyp5e774po
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/amp/news-ssha-biolaboratorii/33779317.html
Great! How many more sensational revelations will we see over time?
Meanwhile, yet another shocking incident has come to light through a court case. A court in Chernihiv has handed down a verdict to 27-year-old Bohdan Koshel, a native of the region. He was found fully guilty of the intentional murder of two servicemen and the attempted murder of a third person, and was sentenced to life imprisonment. The bloody tragedy, which claimed the lives of experienced army instructors, unfolded on July 16, 2025, directly on the grounds of one of the military training centers in the Chernihiv region. https://subota.online/dovichnyj-vyrok-u-chernihovi-mobilizovanyj-iz-psykhichnymy-rozladamy-rozstriliav-instruktoriv-na-polihoni/
According to the case file, the man was drafted into the Armed Forces of Ukraine in June 2025. During the court hearings, his attorney stated that Bohdan Koshel had an officially documented third-degree disability since childhood due to chronic mental disorders and regularly received corresponding social assistance from the state. Moreover, after his forced deployment to a military unit, the mobilized soldier’s mother repeatedly sent official written complaints to state agencies and the command regarding violations. According to the Office of the Prosecutor General, the motive was revenge against the instructors for their strict demands regarding discipline.
Dmytro Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada’s Human Rights Commissioner, has issued a strong demand that officials who approved the mobilization of an individual unfit for service be held accountable. The Ukrainian ombudsman notes that, according to preliminary information, the conscript had a confirmed mental disorder but successfully passed the military medical examination. He was then deemed fully fit for military service, received a weapon, and was sent for training.
“He then used that same weapon to shoot and kill two instructors with his own hands; they died at the scene, and another was wounded,” Lubinets noted.
The Ombudsman emphasized that a verdict has already been handed down to the direct perpetrator of the crime, but the public deserves answers regarding the actions of the officials who made the decisions regarding his mobilization and fitness for service. https://glavcom.ua/country/politics/ombudsmen-ukrajini-vimahaje-rozsliduvati-mobilizatsiju-cholovika-jakij-ubiv-vijskovikh-na-chernihivshchini-1125313.html
And if he had reached the front and killed his colleagues there, would he have made it possible for the russians to break through into the weakened area?
Or his condition starts to flare up, and they send him to a unit behind the front lines—to live in a tent and sweep the parade ground for 21,000 UAH a month. Plus food, plus a uniform and gear worth over 100,000 UAH, all flushed down the toilet. Then he goes for a new medical exam, where his actual diagnosis is suddenly confirmed—and the state starts paying him benefits and a pension again. It’s ridiculous; after all, he went in “completely healthy.”
So far, the system works flawlessly: first, the state pays you for being mentally ill, then declares you fit for duty overnight, and when you kill your own people—they lock you up for life. And all of this at the taxpayers’ expense. Not a single doctor on the medical board or military commissar was harmed in the process. Wonderful!
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is aware of "busification" during mobilization events and does not support such methods of work by representatives of mobilization centers, said Dmytro Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, in an interview with Radio Svoboda, answering a question about the regularity of meetings with the head of state and discussions of this problem with him. https://censor.net/ua/n4007831
Also a very convenient position. But instead of real actions, we once again hear only encouraging statements.
Ukraine is preparing to strengthen the financial stability of its defense sector and ensure the continued transformation of the Armed Forces, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. https://armyinform.com.ua/2026/06/12/novi-kontrakty-chitki-terminy-sluzhby-ta-vidstrochky-prezydent-anonsuvav-transformacziyu-syl-oborony/
So far, the parliament has passed a law that has doubled police salaries. https://suspilne.media/1327486-zarplati-policejskih-zrostut-majze-udvici-rada-uhvalila-novij-zakon/
The authorities have long since set their priorities: they will methodically protect those who defend them from within, while stripping the country’s defenders of their rights—just as they have done to the entire nation. A police state will first and foremost nurture its own power structure, and only then its defense capabilities. For the monopoly on force makes them all-powerful.
Yuriy Butusov, commander of the UAV company of the 23rd Assault Regiment within the National Guard’s 2nd Corps “Charter” and a well-known journalist, points out that instead of hiring foreign assault troops, the state is taking taxpayers out of work, which is why the army has neither motivated fighters nor those who can finance the maintenance of mercenaries. https://censor.net/ua/r4007664
Realizing that it is running out of people, Ukraine is asking the EU not to grant protection to men aged 23 to 60. https://www.dw.com/uk/ukraina-prosit-es-ne-nadavati-zahist-colovikam-vid-23-do-60-rokiv-evrokomisar/a-77426757?maca=ukr-rss-ukrnet-ukr-all-3816-xml
Lubinec also stated that at least four cases have already been recorded in Ukraine in which illegally detained citizens died inside mobilization centers. He commented on the issue of “busification.” He explained that people are crammed into minibuses and taken to unknown destinations, after which their relatives may go several days without any information about their whereabouts.
Information about the detainees is concealed, and only later do human rights activists manage to determine that a person is being forcibly held inside the premises of mobilization centers.
Lubinec emphasized that the consequences of such actions by mobilization center's military personnel are increasingly becoming tragic. It is not uncommon for citizens to end up in hospital beds with severe injuries after a stay at the mobilization centers, and, as the ombudsman emphasized, hospitalization is not the worst possible outcome.
"We have cases where people simply died as a result. In the premises of the mobilization centers, at least according to my information, there have already been four recorded cases where people simply died right inside the mobilization centers premises. For unclear reasons, which, unfortunately, cannot even be determined later through internal investigations," he stated. https://censor.net/ua/n4007142
Meanwhile, there are virtually no mechanisms in place to protect the rights of those who have already been drafted into the army; therefore, the only way for soldiers to escape rights violations and the impunity of their commanders is to desert.
Instead, propaganda makes films that are supposed to show mobilization with humor and humanity. The Ukrainian short film "Easter Day" by director Mykola Zaseev won the award for best European film at the 66th Krakow Film Festival and was nominated for the European Film Academy Award in the short film category. https://espreso.tv/kultura-paskhalniy-den-pro-ofitseriv-ttsk-stav-naykrashchim-evropeyskim-filmom-na-festivali-u-krakovi
Of course, hours-long documentary footage of people being beaten and abused will never make it to the big screen.
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The drone and missile attacks continued all night, most of which targeted Kyiv. After the hit, something burned heavily nearby for several hours and the smoke made my throat itch. It rained for half the night, which probably helped put out the numerous fires in the city.
russia launched 70 missiles and 611 drones in the overnight attack.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gy037gjz3o
The most attention was focused on the Dormition Cathedral on the territory of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, on the roof of which a fire broke out. Although the original structure was built in the 11th century, it was completely destroyed in 1941 and rebuilt only in 2000, but the entire complex is under the protection of UNESCO. https://hromadske.radio/news/2026/06/15/cherez-udar-po-kyievu-zahynuly-chetvero-liudey-poshkodzheni-kyievo-pecherska-lavra-mystetskyy-arsenal-i-kinostudiia-dovzhenka-foto
When I drove downtown to the courthouse during the day, I had to look very carefully to notice the damage and black spots on the walls. There weren't many cars on the streets, but one might have gotten the impression that it was just an ordinary day and people were going about their business as usual, even though few had slept more than two hours that night.
At least five people were killed and more than 30 were wounded in the attack on the city, according to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. Across Ukraine in total, at least 11 people were killed in the russian bombardment.
In a statement Monday, russia’s Defense Ministry said it had carried out strikes on “targets within the defense-industrial complex in the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk.” https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/14/europe/kyiv-pechersk-lavra-monastery-fire-russian-attack-intl-hnk
We will learn about the full consequences of this attack much later, but as censorship allowed, the press reported that several residential buildings, office centers, and a logistics center were also destroyed, and Ukrainian Railways reported delays to many trains. This time again, many drones and missiles were not intercepted. At least there were no widespread power or water outages.
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/naydovshiy-naukoviy-eksperiment-istoriyi-1781276790.html
https://trueua.info/news/cherez-poshkodzhennya-infrastrukturi-nizka-poizdiv-ukrzaliznici-zatrimuetsya-spisok-reysiv
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The Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, which was attacked on June 15 by the russian federation’s military using strike drones, will be restored using funds from the reserve fund that the Cabinet of Ministers will allocate today. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced this to the media after inspecting the site of the russian attack. https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2026/06/15/novyna/bezpeka/kyyevo-pechersku-lavru-vidnovlyat-koshty-rezerviv-zelenskyj
Once again, a tragedy is being used as a convenient media opportunity for self-promotion at someone else’s expense—at the expense of taxpayers who lost their small businesses and homes during this very same attack, but for whom no funds will be allocated for reconstruction. That’s what I think about when I see news like this alongside videos on social media showing the aftermath of the destruction in less spectacular locations, where ordinary people are looking at their burned-down homes and small shops.
This is undoubtedly yet another russian crime, but shouldn’t people be a country’s greatest asset—the ones who should receive assistance first and foremost? Even in Kyiv, dozens of damaged buildings have stood unrepaired for years. In my opinion, priority should be given, for example, to hospitals, rather than religious buildings, which can be repaired at the expense of religious organizations and communities. But in Ukraine, one has to be careful with such opinions. Criminal convictions have already begun to be handed down for criticizing the authorities in Ukraine... https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7472521493227229185/
There have been many official statements lately that Ukraine is prevailing and perhaps with the hope of victory, it does not need a peace agreement yet. Indeed, drones are already reaching Moscow and St. Petersburg, and oil refineries are burning throughout the European part of russia, causing a shortage of gasoline even in Moscow. https://www.reuters.com/world/moscow-oil-refinery-damaged-ukrainian-drone-attack-mayor-says-2026-06-16/
https://24tv.ua/naftobaza-stanitsi-poltavskiy-palaye-16-chervnya-2026-roku-detali_n3088393
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, russia may have lost more than 70% of its combat-ready long-range Tu-22M3 bombers, writes Defense Express. https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war/z_2022_roku_rf_mogla_vtratiti_blizko_70_bojezdatnih_strategichnih_bombarduvalnikiv_tu_22m3_tozh_skilki_jih_mozhe_buti_teper-23321.html
It's truly inspiring and keeps people from giving up, but then an unremarkable news item in the local press catches my eye, which compromises all the triumphant official bravado. On June 17, in the Synelnykivskyi District of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the forced evacuation of families with children began from another 23 settlements. The decision was made by the regional military administration due to the deteriorating security situation in the region. According to its head, Oleksandr Hanzha, a total of more than 49,500 people have already left the Synelnykivskyi District, and nearly 750 residents have left the Nikopolskyi District. https://ua.news/ua/all-news/na-dnipropetrovshchini-ogolosili-primusovu-evakuatsiiu-shche-z-23-naselenikh-punktiv
On June 16, a Su-24M frontline bomber belonging to the 7th Petro Frank Tactical Aviation Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force crashed in the Khmelnytskyi region. https://news.novyny.live/na-khmelnichchini-rozbivsia-bombarduvalnik-su-24m-zaginuli-dvoie-pilotiv-331293.html
A video from the Regional Joint Mobilization Center in Odesa has become popular on social networks. The author of the recording claims that people are being held in inappropriate conditions and can be kept there for several days. After the footage appeared, an official check was launched to clarify all the circumstances. https://odesa.novyny.live/skandal-v-odeskomu-ttsk-pereviriaiut-umovi-dlia-mobilizovanikh-330992.html
The State Bureau of Investigation have uncovered a large-scale scheme of illegal coercion of citizens to mobilize in one of the district mobilization centers of the Odessa region. According to the investigation, the men were forcibly held, beaten, intimidated and psychologically pressured. Nine members of the organized group were detained. https://censor.net/ua/photonews/4008639/katuvannya-i-nezakonne-utrymannya-cholovikiv-u-ttsk-na-odeschyni-zatrymano-9-figurantiv
In the Zakarpattia region, police confirmed a report from doctors at the Volovets District Hospital stating that a man had been brought in from the local mobilization center with broken ribs and a chest injury, and that he subsequently died. https://incident.obozrevatel.com/ukr/crime/na-zakarpatti-cholovik-pomer-pislya-kontaktu-z-ttsk-politsiya-rozslidue-mozhlive-pobittya.htm
But it seems that even the authorities now recognize that the way mobilization is being carried out is flawed and that changes are needed. It would be good if this were more than just empty rhetoric. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is preparing changes to the mobilization process. First and foremost, the next stage of the reform will concern those subject to military service who are wanted for violating military registration rules, Deputy Minister of Defense Mstislav Banik said at a briefing.
In particular, the Deputy Minister of Defense stated that work is currently underway on the next phase of reform within the Armed Forces of Ukraine regarding the mobilization process and mobilization centers. According to him, this reform will affect 2 million conscripts who are wanted by the authorities and are not currently serving in the military.
He said that the reform should provide a clear understanding of the terms of service.
"Because someone who currently sees their future as being drafted and never being discharged—serving in the infantry on combat missions, without knowing when that service will end… This is precisely the answer for those people who are now gaining new prospects for military service. They are quite clear and understandable. And this is part of our mobilization reform. This is also so that the people we are mobilizing now understand what their prospects are in a protracted war,” Banik said.
At the same time, he declined to explain in detail how the mobilization reform will take place.
"Whether there will be raids or something else - I won't tell you for sure. But I will say for sure that the format of forced mobilization that is currently in society is having a pretty bad effect on us. We'll see what it will be later," Banik said. https://www.unian.ua/society/reforma-mobilizaciji-v-minoboroni-anonsuvali-novi-zmini-13413027.html#goog_rewarded
The pay raises for military personnel were implemented without additional funding from the budget. The Ministry of Defense secured the necessary resources through internal audits, cost optimization, and anti-corruption efforts, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said. “A colossal amount was saved because we began cracking down on corrupt officials within the Ministry of Defense and shifting everything to competitive bidding and transparent rules,” he said. https://finance.novyny.live/zrostannia-viplat-viiskovim-u-minoboroni-poiasnili-zvidki-vziali-groshi-331302.html
I have no comment on this at all, since I haven’t heard anything about any punishment for those responsible for previous losses incurred by the budget. Of course, there is no way to objectively verify what he said.
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I was really surprised last night when I heard the Patriot interceptors being launched. The russians don’t usually launch ballistic missiles in the middle of the week. https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/letili-droni-ta-balistika-mayzhe-30-prilotiv-1781760158.html
Because of that, I didn’t get much sleep again; this morning I took an extra-strong dose of my medication and headed out to my scheduled meetings. I was absolutely exhausted, and by evening I could barely get through my last call. Starting your own business isn’t all that easy. Even without any clients yet, you still have to put in a lot of effort to meet new people and promote a company that not even internet search algorithms know about right now.
But also today Moscow has come under the largest Ukrainian attack since the start of the full-scale war, with close to 200 drones hitting targets around the russian capital and setting columns of thick smoke billowing high into the sky. Fires broke out as the Kapotnya refinery in south-east Moscow was hit for the third time in a month and the second time this week, colouring the sky black with smoke. Numerous videos showed the lid of a large oil storage tank blown dozens of metres into the air by the force of an explosion. A nearby shopping centre was also burning, reportedly after drone debris fell on the building, and several residential high-rise blocks were evacuated. Moscow's four airports were temporarily shut and more than 500 flights were cancelled or delayed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98291g5rr1o
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/moskva-samogo-ranku-pid-udarom-droniv-gorit-1781752385.html
This time it looked truly impressive and made an impression on the russians. It seems something has changed significantly, and attacks on Moscow are now possible.
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Fully autonomous drones with no human oversight have killed soldiers on the battlefield for the first time. This is according to a senior figure in the Ukrainian defence industry, marking a watershed moment in warfare, wrote New Scientist. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2529849-fully-autonomous-drones-have-killed-human-soldiers-for-the-first-time/
“We tried it,” says drone-maker Alexander Kokhanovskyy, who supplied the technology and spoke to New Scientist at a press event hosted by the Ukrainian embassy. “It’s a test. We never implemented it [more widely].” “We just launch it and we know everything will be dead – everything that will be found there in this particular area will be dead,” says Kokhanovskyy. “There is no connection to the drone at all, you cannot see the video, nothing… Everything it sees will be killed.”
I am reminded of Isaac Asimov with his Laws of Robotics and other ethical and moral issues related to the use of artificial intelligence, but robots are just tools and there is nothing that humanity cannot use as a weapon. And if artificial intelligence ever gains self-awareness and independently decides to kill people, it will only be because humans have always done so and it is natural for them.
But in the short term, this seems like a good solution to even the odds, since there are simply not enough Ukrainians physically to kill all the Russians who continue to come to Ukraine with the aim of killing Ukrainians. Especially against the background of rumors that russia is planning a general mobilization.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's relations with Poland are rapidly deteriorating. Well, maybe they are deteriorating not with Ukraine, but with Zelensky personally, but this certainly has a bad effect on Ukraine and Ukrainians both in Ukraine and in Poland. It seems that history is repeating itself when, due to Trump's personal attitude towards Zelensky, Ukraine lost a significant part of US support. Now, Polish President Karol Nawrocki has decided to strip Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of the Order of the White Eagle and stated that Poland will not allow those who do not understand the need to abandon the "cult of totalitarianism and violence" to join the EU.
Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky has been stripped of Poland's highest state honour, the Order of the White Eagle, over Kyiv's decision to name a military unit after controversial World War Two fighters. Polish President Karol Nawrocki branded Ukraine's decision late last month to name the unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) "outrageous", "incomprehensible" and "deeply disappointing". Nawrocki stressed the diplomatic row would not impact Poland's support for Ukraine against russia.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7xzg3dmj8o
https://inshe.tv/politics/2026-06-02/998035/
But this will undoubtedly have a negative impact on Ukraine. Moreover, as a sign of protest, the head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Budanov, and Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga have declined Poland’s highest honors. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cwy0lz5p7wgo Thus, through their efforts, the focus of attention is shifted directly from Zelensky to the entire Ukraine as a state.
Although some Poles even publicly condemn Navrotsky's decision, pointing out that it weakens both Ukraine and Poland and that russia is once again the only beneficiary of the disputes between our countries, intelligent people are always in the minority, and political populism is addressed to the illiterate majority.
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The conflict with Poland is escalating. Polish President Navrotsky’s insidious provocation has drawn significant attention and is undoubtedly intended to divert the Poles’ attention from both domestic problems and to shift the focus from distant russia—which is, in fact, a common enemy of both Ukrainians and Poles—onto the Ukrainians. Former Ukrainian presidents Petro Poroshenko, Viktor Yushchenko, and Leonid Kuchma have also renounced their White Eagles. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cwy0lz5p7wgo
The manner in which this was done is particularly noteworthy. In Zelensky’s case, however, it was done in his typically insulting manner—demonstratively through a private carrier. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c36yx73kjjlo
But this is a Ukrainian carrier that has only just begun its expansion into Europe and, because of this gesture, risks losing the Polish market. Yet returning the order via a private carrier rather than through diplomatic channels shows that this was done intentionally to be offensive—so that every Pole would feel the attitude toward them and toward Poland. Isn’t the president supposed to represent the entire country?
And I have to ask: why was this done? To impress the Ukrainians? Yes, most people liked it—they rightly expect that no one should interfere in their internal affairs or tell their president what to do and how to do it. For Navrotsky? Well, for him, it means the provocation was successful and only reinforced his message to his voters. As for the Poles? Most of them, who were scared since childhood by stories of "UPA criminals", saw Ukraine’s hostile attitude toward Poland. And psychology has long established that people will reject any logical arguments if they contradict their worldview. So, it’s not clear to me exactly how this will help Ukraine, but it’s obvious that it will lead to a deterioration in Poles’ attitudes toward Ukrainians. So perhaps the real goal of this show is to force Ukrainians to return to Ukraine? But what if people simply choose to go somewhere else? Then both Ukraine and Poland will suffer, as Poland will lose consumers, a workforce, and taxpayers. The only winner is russia. What’s the point of helping russia?
This problem is not new, but those who came to power in Ukraine through the manipulation depicted in the TV series “Servant of the People” did not even attempt to resolve it constructively by leveraging cultural opportunities—for example, by producing and screening a film for Ukrainians and Poles that highlighted the necessary priorities.
And there’s also a strange coincidence in timing on the eve of The Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2026), which will be co-hosted by Poland and Ukraine and will take place in the city of Gdańsk on June 25 and 26, 2026. URC 2026 seeks to bolster international support for the country’s reconstruction as well as catalyze investments for Ukrainian businesses. https://www.urc-international.com/
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If you want a quiet life, it's best to stay as far away from war as possible. In recent days, partly because of the heat, I have been feeling unwell all the time, but a visit to the doctor has not helped much. My tests are almost good and I don't think that the new pills will help where the cause needs to be eliminated. At least, unlike the occupied territories, there are no problems with fuel in Ukraine. A humanitarian catastrophe is looming in the occupied Crimea and the east, but at least people there can leave. Although in the case of Crimea, this has also become a problem, since drones are attacking all the roads leading from the peninsula to the mainland and you have to find fuel to fill up your car. Due to damaged bridges, the railway connection is broken.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyx2lk9d15o
Yesterday, from morning to afternoon, russian drone attacks on various regions of Ukraine continued. Even in Kyiv, I heard explosions from air defense. There were missile hits in the western regions. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c0jy4l5q50no https://uatv.ua/uk/iskandery-kyndzhaly-ta-105-bpla-zapustyla-rf-po-ukrayini-shho-vidomo-pro-naslidky/
Ukraine used Storm Shadow missiles to strike the Voronezh Semiconductor Plant, which is involved in the production of components for Russian weapons, including the Pantsir anti-aircraft missile and gun complex, Kh-101 cruise missiles, and Iskander-K missiles. https://militarnyi.com/uk/news/rakety-vluchyly-u-voronezhskij-zavod-napivprovidnykovyh-pryladiv-vzpp-s/
Meanwhile, russian troops have infiltrated the strategic city of Kostyantynivka in eastern Ukraine and are now trying to surround it. Kostyantynivka is a gateway to the rest of the Donbas region. If it falls, russian forces would be able push towards Ukraine's last remaining strongholds in the east, the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and move closer to seizing Donbas completely, one of the Kremlin's key objectives in this war. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9w2g0ewk95o
In good news, the tenth KyivPride march for the rights of LGBTIQ+ people took place in Kyiv. https://detector.media/infospace/article/250650/2026-06-21-v-ukraini-proyshov-desyatyy-marsh-kyivprayd/
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Ukrainian attacks on fuel infrastructure have finally become noticeable in russia, and not only in the occupied territories, whose residents are suffering the most.
russia is considering a diesel export ban, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said yesterday, while a newspaper reported on possible fuel imports to tackle shortages, especially in Crimea, which tightened restrictions on public services and activities. russian President Vladimir putin also made his first comments about Ukraine's recent strikes on civilian infrastructure, including on Moscow's oil refinery, saying they were a ploy to destabilise society. He also called on the government to take additional measures to offset the consequences from the strikes. Numerous regions across russia, the world's third-largest crude producer, have reported restrictions on fuel sales, rising prices of oil products and long queues at filling stations, Reuters writes.
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-says-ukrainian-infrastructure-attacks-are-an-attempt-destabilise-russia-2026-06-23/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-discusses-importing-fuel-amid-ukrainian-strikes-newspaper-says-2026-06-23/
russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday that russia was ready to resume peace negotiations with Ukraine from the point where they left off. "We are ready to talk with Kyiv, as we have always been," Lavrov told reporters, referring to talks that took place in Istanbul soon after the start of the war in 2022 and were resumed in 2025. However, he did not signal any shift in Moscow's demand, rejected by Kyiv, for Ukraine to surrender the remaining part of the Donbas region that it has successfully defended from russian forces. https://www.reuters.com/world/lavrov-says-russia-is-ready-resume-talks-with-ukraine-point-where-they-left-off-2026-06-23/
russia is trying to strengthen its influence in Belarus and gain additional opportunities for implementing military plans against Ukraine. To this end, Moscow is increasingly putting pressure on the regime of Alexander Lukashenko, writes The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-pressures-belarus-in-bid-to-open-new-front-in-ukraine-war-8020d37e
Some believe that one of the goals of Navrotsky's provocation to blow up the scandal surrounding the UPA was to prevent Ukraine from receiving EU funding that Poland could have received. It seems that he got what he wanted, since Volodymyr Zelensky will not go to Gdansk for the Conference on the Restoration of Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cql1ekxyyqpo
Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko will go instead. So this once again confirms that there are no friends in big politics and each country cares first of all about its own interests. Well, almost every one. It is surprising that the Ukrainian authorities do not understand that it is in Poland's interests for Ukraine to fight, and production to remain in Poland, which wants to sell everything it needs to Ukraine, and not compete with it. So, an event of great importance for Ukraine will take place at a lower level than planned.
The Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, said that of the volume of complaints about the actions of mobilization center employees that his office receives daily, less than 1% are openly disclosed. According to him, this is done so that such information is not used by russian propaganda.
“We understand that, unfortunately, the russians are using this information. But, on the other hand, now only publicity is influencing the ministries to really carry out reforms,” the ombudsman said.
Among the most common offenses:
physical violence without legal grounds;
detention of people without the opportunity to contact their relatives;
seizure of personal belongings and documents;
formal passage of military medical commissions.
"The approach to mobilization processes requires immediate changes. Citizens should join the army not out of fear, but out of trust in the state, which must ensure respect for human dignity and support for the families of servicemen. If this is not done, tension will grow not only at the front, but also within the country," Lubinets said. https://politarena.ua/lubinets-zaiavyv-shcho-opryliudniuie-mensh-iak-1-otrymanykh-skarh-shchodo-porushen-ttsk-177425/
Unfortunately, as follows from Lubinets' words, there is almost no reaction to the violations. But how did he mildly call criminal crimes that are no different from what the russians did in the occupied territories.
However, I haven't heard a single good word about mobilization centers at all, especially from colleagues who are contacted by victims. And this is given that not everyone has the money and the opportunity to turn to lawyers to protect their rights.
In the army itself, despite its secrecy, the most horrific incidents also become public from time to time. Journalists from Babel have discovered at least 26 non-combat deaths among recruits of the 425th separate assault regiment "Skelya" from the fall of 2025 to the spring of 2026. Most are healthy men who have not been in the regiment for even a month. The investigation describes the practices of torture, beatings and suicides in the ranks of the regiment. The text cites testimonies from more than 30 sources - relatives of the deceased, soldiers of the regiment and those who left the unit without permission, in particular, according to them, due to inhuman treatment of mobilized people.
"Skelya" is the largest assault regiment in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Unofficially, it is also called the "Regiment of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky", since it is not part of any corps, but directly subordinates to the higher command. "Skelya" took part in the most difficult battles of the russian-Ukrainian war. Despite this and its combat merits, the regiment is often criticized by the military, journalists and relatives of those who ended up there. Due to accusations of heavy losses, the regiment has gained a reputation as a "meatball". However, "Skelya" loses people not only on the battlefield, but also during combat training.
The seriousness of the revelations is confirmed by the fact that even such media outlets as Deutsche Welle are publishing it, and the State Bureau of Investigation was forced to launch an official investigation, since it is unlikely that everyone died from pneumonia, and the number of suicides also hints at murders that were passed off as suicides. Also, traces of torture cannot be hidden on the bodies of those who have not yet died. It also once again drew attention to the consequences of the brilliant decision to allow the mobilization of drug addicts and the mentally ill.
https://dbr.gov.ua/news/dbr-pereviryae-fakti-oprilyudneni-u-zmi-shhodo-shturmovogo-polku-skelya
The State Bureau of Investigation also completed a pre-trial investigation into the torture of a man in one of the mobilization centers in the Mykolaiv region. At the end of 2025, during mobilization activities, the staff of the recruitment center delivered a man who was raising five children and had health problems to the mobilization center. Despite this, he was found fit for military service after a forced military medical examination. When two military units refused to accept the man due to his health condition, the mobilization center officials decided to fulfill the mobilization plan at any cost. For nine days, they illegally detained the victim, including in the basement, applying physical violence and psychological pressure to him. The man was demanded to agree to mobilization allegedly voluntarily or to sign documents stating that he had no complaints against the mobilization center employees.
The victim was released only when they saw the consequences of the beating — numerous swellings and injuries. Once free, the man immediately sought medical help. As a result of the unlawful actions, he suffered a concussion, a fractured arm and ribs, numerous abrasions, and infected wounds from the tying. https://dbr.gov.ua/news/zakrivali-u-pidvali-ta-katuvali-cholovika-za-materialami-dbr-suditimut-kerivnictvo-rtck-ta-sp-na-mikolaivshhini
https://www.dw.com/uk/rozsliduvanna-zmi-v-skeli-za-piv-roku-pomerli-26-novobranciv/a-77682009
https://babel.ua/texts/127938-shturmoviy-polk-skelya-maye-boyovi-zaslugi-i-dobre-zabezpechennya-a-shche-kazhut-ochevidci-tam-katuyut-i-zabivayut-lyudey-na-smert-rozsliduvannya-babelya
So, even for a healthy person, this means that anyone can be grabbed on the street, then abused and killed, writing in the official conclusion that he committed suicide. And how many more such cases are there that society does not know about? It seems that Ukraine has already turned into russia in some places.
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On the evening of June 25 and into the night of June 26, russia launched missile and drone strikes on Ukraine. The main targets were Kyiv, Kremenchuk and Myrhorod in Poltava region and Vylkove in Odesa region. Zaporizhia, Sumy and Hlukhiv were also under attack. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c17yp24dzpqo
Two deaths and ten injuries, fires and power outages in a number of cities are known. After 9 pm on June 25, russia attacked Kyiv with several ballistic missiles. Although the missiles were actively shot down, after one hit nearby, they could not extinguish the fire until morning. It was a warehouse and black smoke covered half the sky.
For the first time since 2022, the whole family finally got together. The kids have changed a lot, but I'm glad they're doing well. It is very interesting to discuss with them issues of politics and economics, in which they are already well-versed.
After several days of blackouts, fuel shortages, and transport restrictions, a state of emergency has been imposed in occupied Crimea. Lines have been artificially created on the bridge connecting the peninsula to the mainland. It is obvious that the russians are thus hiding behind civilians. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/c0eyxjp2w57o
On June 26, a new prisoner exchange took place between Ukraine and russia in a 160-by-160 format. This was reported by the russian Defense Ministry and the Ukrainian authorities. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cwyl7r77v7ro
The Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC), held in Gdansk, Poland, brought Ukraine over 10 billion euros in new international support, the launch of several large investment funds and dozens of agreements in the fields of energy, transport, housing, the defense industry and private business. This was reported by the Ukrainian delegation led by Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.
The conference took place against the backdrop of diplomatic tension between Kyiv and Warsaw. due to disputes over the UPA, the deprivation of Zelensky of the Order of the White Eagle and the mutual "order fall".
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not participate in it, as did Polish President Karol Nawrotsky. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine did not go either, who significantly refused the Polish award. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/cx2vpv37zxqo
The participants only gave positive feedback, and there were no noticeable problems for Ukraine at this event, although there is reason to believe that Ukraine missed an opportunity due to the political crisis, which is why Zelensky did not go there.
Ukraine, for example, was unable to participate in the summit of the so-called Eastern Flank of the EU because of this. Only the highest-ranking officials were invited there (in the Ukrainian system, this is the president), so the organizers did not contact Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. Zelensky's personal visit would also have given him the opportunity to support Prime Minister Donald Tusk - who is more pro-Ukrainian than other players in Polish politics - in his conflict with President Karol Nawrotski.
The list of top URC participants was impressive. The heads of the European Commission and the European Council; the president of Lithuania, the head of the presidency of Bosnia. The heads of government, that is, the highest leaders of 11 countries with parliamentary government: Poland, Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Albania, as well as the Baltic Four (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland).
Romanian President Nikusor Dan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson flew to Gdansk on Thursday along with all the other leaders, but not for the Ukrainian gathering, but to participate in the EU Eastern Flank Summit, which was held in parallel. And in general, it seems that such a high level of representation of other states at the URC was achieved primarily thanks to this summit.
And the list of confirmed bilateral meetings Svyrydenko held in two days in Gdansk reinforces the feeling that some partners do not consider it correct to downgrade Ukraine's representation at the URC. Based on government reports, the Ukrainian prime minister met with colleagues from the Czech Republic, Finland and Estonia, as well as the host of the event, Donald Tusk.
A dozen other leaders - at least according to official reports - did not find an opportunity to meet with the head of the Ukrainian delegation and the conference on the restoration of Ukraine.
There were also no reports of negotiations with the leadership of EU institutions. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/articles/2026/06/26/7240464/
On Friday, the European Commission proposed extending temporary protection for Ukrainians fleeing war for another year, until March 4, 2028. At the same time, the commission proposed not to extend this protection to newly arrived Ukrainians liable for military service, who are prohibited from leaving Ukraine. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_1462
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Today is Constitution Day in Ukraine, but the russians probably don't know that it is "on pause", so they expectedly "greeted" Ukraine with 142 drones and eight missiles, 6 of which were ballistic at Kyiv.
The air defense neutralized one anti-ship missile "Zircon", or "Onyx", six ballistic missiles "Iskander-M / S-400" and 125 russian UAVs in the north, south and east of the country. The missile and 14 strike UAVs were hit in 11 places, and downed (fragments) also fell in 13 places. It was very noisy in Kyiv, but only one small fire from debris was recorded. https://babel.ua/news/128096-rosiyani-atakuvali-ukrajinu-vismoma-raketami-ta-142-bpla-skilki-ciley-zbila-ppo
Later it became known that the damage was done to the Pharmaceutical Company "Darnitsa" - the largest manufacturer of medicines in Ukraine. https://zn.ua/ukr/UKRAINE/vnochi-rosijani-atakuvali-zavod-farmatsevtichnoji-kompaniji-darnitsja-u-kijevi.html
One of russia's largest oil refineries is on fire in Slavyansk-on-Kuban as a result of a drone attack, the russian BBC service reported. https://www.bbc.com/russian/live/cg4p75e1k1nt?post=asset%3Ad621b07c-534f-4532-8ced-abf396226ad7#asset:d621b07c-534f-4532-8ced-abf396226ad7
Ukrainian missiles also hit the russian military plant Titan-Barricades in Volgograd, which manufactures artillery systems and Iskander ballistic missile launchers. https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/articles/clyx13174gjo
All this is good, but there is a danger of looking only in one direction where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are successfully striking oil production and processing infrastructure and completely ignoring certain successes of the enemy on the ground and the development/expansion of the enemy's strikes on our logistics and roads.
It is also clearly underestimated that Belarus is building military infrastructure near the Ukrainian border with russian money. I do not know what many people believe that Belarus will not enter the war. Even if the Belarusian army does not personally participate in hostilities, they are building military bases and storage/concentration points, roads and bridges through which the russians can transfer their troops. This will also help the russians cut off our logistics and supplies from the West. And the Belarusian President Lukashenko can always help putin and play his victim at the same time.
The US Chargé d’Affaires ad interim in Ukraine, Julie Davis, had completed her diplomatic mission in Kyiv https://informator.ua/uk/timchasova-povirena-u-spravah-ssha-v-ukrajini-zakinchuye-svoyu-misiyu and was therefore unable to attend the Model US Congress youth event, which is regularly held in Kyiv. Seva and Kate decided to take occasion to attend and met old friends there, although they were a little disappointed that the event was held in Ukrainian.
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Ukraine will have to not only return its citizens from abroad, but also attract foreign specialists for the post-war economic recovery. There will be no other option, said the head of the Presidential Office, Kyrylo Budanov, explaining this by the rapid deterioration of the demographic situation in the country. https://www.kyivpost.com/uk/post/79048
russia’s close alliance with Belarus is facing a new test as President Alexander Lukashenko has shown reluctance to deepen his role in Vladimir putin’s war against Ukraine. Lukashenko held two days of talks with putin starting Friday at the russian leader’s residence near Lake Valdai after publicly warning russian officials against efforts to pull Belarus into the conflict.
The Belarusian leader has repeatedly said his country doesn’t intend to get involved in the war unless attacked. But he appeared to acknowledge there was pressure to do so on Thursday when he received russian Ambassador Boris Gryzlov, a close putin ally, and Moscow region Governor Andrey Vorobyov for talks in Minsk. “There’s no need for us to get drawn into the war,” Lukashenko told the russian envoys. “We also don’t want to fight Ukrainians, that’s why our position is peaceful.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-29/putin-s-closest-ally-tested-as-minsk-resists-deeper-war-role?srnd=homepage-europe
The russian regime is likely to remain a threat to its neighbors well after President Vladimir putin’s time in office ends, the head of Sweden’s military intelligence agency said. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-30/russian-threat-likely-to-endure-after-putin-sweden-says
Poland will not transfer MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine for the time being due to the Ukrainian side’s refusal from previous agreements on cooperation in the field of drones. The Polish government links these two issues as part of a partnership agreement, Polsat News reports. https://www.polsatnews.pl/gosc-wydarzen/2026-06-29/nie-ma-mig-ow-bo-nie-ma-dronow-szef-mon-o-wycofaniu-sie-ukrainy-z-umowy/
We must not elevate those who destroy European cooperation to the pantheon. Ukraine will not join the European Union with Bandera [...]. No one will tell us how to vote for a given country's accession to the European Union," said Polish Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz on the "Gość Wydarzeń" program on Polsat News. https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/z-bandera-do-ue-nie-wejdzie-ukraina-zauwazyla-slowa-szefa-mon/yk4vgqj
Personally, I see this as part of a larger conflict between Poland and Ukraine. It would seem that the Ukrainian authorities should be interested in smoothing out the conflict in these difficult times and not giving Polish provocateurs a reason to inflate the topic of Ukrainian nationalism. But no. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that on Constitution Day he submitted to the Verkhovna Rada a draft law on the Ukrainian National Pantheon, which is designed to honor recognized Ukrainians. "No one will ever dictate to Ukrainians which heroes to honor, which holidays to celebrate, or which history to study. Our ancestors fought for this right to freedom of choice and national independence for hundreds of years, and it is for this that our soldiers are shedding their blood today. The memory of them must live forever," the head of the Presidential Office, Kyrylo Budanov also noted. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2026/06/28/8041492/
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court overturned the decisions that awarded the family of a soldier 15 million hryvnias (about $333,000). Such payments are provided for soldiers killed at the front, but in this case the soldier died from a service-related illness, although he was not directly killed by the russians. https://sud.ua/uk/news/publication/365134-verkhovniy-sud-skasuvav-rishennya-yakimi-rodini-viyskovogo-bulo-prisudzheno-viplatu-u-rozmiri-15-mln-griven
This is all you need to know about the real attitude of the state towards Ukrainian soldiers and another argument for those who avoid military service and do not want to die for Ukraine.
The explosion, which occurred in a residential building along the border with France, injured three members of the same Ukrainian family. One of them is the oligarch Vadim Ermolaev. A man is on the run. A major explosion was heard Monday evening in the principality of Monaco, Le Figaro learned from a police source. https://www.lefigaro.fr/nice/une-forte-explosion-retentit-au-coeur-de-monaco-plusieurs-blesses-20260629
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russian forces have launched a major drone and missile attack on Kyiv overnight, killing 21 people, in what the city's mayor described as the "most massive attack" on the Ukrainian capital. Eighty-five people were injured, including two children, Ukraine's State Emergencies Service said. Mayor Vitaly Klitschko said an ambulance station was among the places hit.
Ukraine's air force said russia had launched 74 missiles and 496 drones overnight, mainly targeting the capital. While the country's air defences were able to repel most of these, 25 ballistic missiles and 12 drones struck 33 locations. russia also hit military bases in central and eastern Ukraine, according to the defence ministry. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gyv05gk4do
My friends and I could watch the numerous hits directly from our windows and thank God none of us were hurt. Indeed, the air defense is working less and less. Many roads in the city are blocked, but I have both water and electricity. Isn't that a miracle? There are a lot of fires and smoke, which is very difficult in the heat that is in Kyiv now. I feel so bad that I don't even try to do anything. In a couple of days it should start to rain and the temperature will drop.